#jamais cascio
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Do I know how to have a good time or what? I usually spend my late nights skimming through a way-too-long list of blogs, primarily on eco topics, slowing to read the ones that pique my interest. But the nearly two-week long end of the year holiday period managed to slow the number of incoming posts each night from well over 200 to a giddyingly time-freeing amount in the mid-two digits. So what did I do with the leftover time? I read not one, but two, anthologies of post-apocalyptic short stories. That’s what I mean about knowing how to have a good time. Some folks curl up with a good mystery. Me? I prefer evenings of vignettes and variants on themes the likes of Mad Max and Soylent Green. (Maybe not Zardoz, though. I do have standards.)
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This has nothing to do with the Mayan or various other supposed prophesies. Why then this interest from the self-anointed EcoOptimist? Life after the apocalypse is not exactly positive, not in the sense of EcoOptimism or of much of anything for that matter. Sure some post-apocalypse worlds are freed of the ravages of humanity and can return to a more balanced ecosystem, but that’s not exactly the path EcoOptimism has in mind.
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Apocalypses seem to be everywhere these days. Even putting aside the Mayan misinterpretation (as well as that guy who predicted the Rapture not once but twice in 2011), there’s a run on ends of the world. Movies, books, television shows. Fact and fiction. It may not be high quality (the revolution may not be televised and Revolution probably shouldn’t have been), but it does constitute a full blown genre.
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Future prognostications don’t have to end badly. Indeed, many such stories have the survivors, well, surviving. Some have used the genre to posit what they feel would be positive outcomes. Ernest Callenbach’s Ecotopia stories, in which the Pacific Northwest has seceded from the dysfunctional rest of the country, come to mind.
But John Michael Greer’s view is more typical, if you can describe anything about an environmentalist, author, historian and neo-Druid who writes on topics ranging from UFOs to peak oil to the occult as typical. In his non-fiction book, The Ecotechnic Future, as well as his online serialized novel Star’s Reach, he makes the point that our industrial age advances are entirely based on the easy availability of cheap energy and materials. If we were to create or encounter an apocalypse that sent us back into a pre-industrial age, therefore, it would be pretty much impossible, because the easily accessed energy and materials would have been used up, for us to do it again.
Jamais Cascio of Open the Future has spoken on apocalypses and how we envision our future, dwelling on what he calls legacy futures. An example of a legacy future, he says, is the jet pack – it’s what we expected the future to have. “The apocalypse [or] the catastrophic tomorrow,” he observes, “is the cornerstone legacy future.” I’m not sure he’s right. Is it what we really expect to happen? Are we such fatalists? “[These stories] leave us disempowered, discouraged and feeling doomed.” I won’t claim to represent all of us, but the stories and movies don’t affect me that way. What they do do is inject, in as much as fiction can, an element of reality, something relatable: this could happen. And could happen to people like us.
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So why do I enjoy these less-than-heartwarming stories? I’d like to think it’s in order to see wiser paths, like a Grimm fable without the later Disneyfication. But it may simply be that they provide an escape, albeit a perverse one: let’s get away from the potential end of the world problems by immersing in fictional scenarios of same.
Cascio makes the point that human beings, alone among other species (at least that we know of), have evolved to think about the future. (I don’t think squirreling away acorns counts.) When we create stories of the end of the world, he says, “they serve to tell us we live on a fragile planet and it is extremely possible we could break it and destroy it.” Yes, but I don’t think that needs to be perceived as disempowering or discouraging. The purpose of warnings, fictional or otherwise, is to help us avoid the danger. We wouldn’t ponder whether we need measures to destroy incoming asteroids if we didn’t have whiz-bang movies depicting the possibility, and if we didn’t have the pure bang of the impact that killed off the dinosaurs.
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Thrive
"Resilience is all about being able to overcome the unexpected. Sustainability is about survival. The goal of resilience is to thrive." Jamais Cascio
2023: The Year of Living Life to the Fullest
Jon Gordon encourages us all to choose our "one word" for the year. We speak a lot about commitments. We also speak a lot about resolutions. We also speak a lot about goals. These actions all require us to think and to plan and to work toward something. But the one word is harder. It's hard to chisel down to one word that sums up where you are and where you want to go.
I have actually given this some thought.I kept coming back to "Live" as in the word that rhymes with 'give'. However, that didn't quite fit what I was thinking and where I would like to go in this upcoming year. Live is easily confused - is he talking about 'live' as in rhymes with 'give' or 'live' as in rhymes with 'hive'? Also, 'live' seems like one is holding on. Struggling forward. Up against it. That's not where I am. It didn't fit. So I went back to the thesaurus.
I landed finally on the word "Thrive". We all can look back over the past several years and recount many obstacles overcome, hurdles crossed, and setbacks endured. We also can think about the idea of a roller coaster which chugs along to reach the summit and slowly begins its descent. As it begins its travels down the track, it picks up speed. This is the feeling I hope to capture and hold onto with all my might this year: Thriving. Thriving means more than simply living. It means living and prospering.
There are so many aspects of my personal and professional life that are truly wonderful right now. There are many ventures I look forward to with anxious anticipation. Thriving will involve living life to the fullest. Thriving will involve doing some things never done before. Thriving will involve finishing projects and goals set forth. Thriving will involve continuing to do what is already working. Thriving will involve reaping the benefits of hard work completed in the past. Thriving will involve connection with people in belly laugh monents, quiet conversations, and through the written word. ‘Thrive’ is my “One Word” for 2023. What is your “One Word”?
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Sustainability and what role could People, Businesses and Technology play?
“With increasing fervour since the 1980s, sustainability has been the watchword of scientists, environmental activists, and indeed all those concerned about the complex, fragile systems on the sphere we inhabit. It has shaped debates about business, design, and our lifestyles”. Jamais Cascio
In the 21st century, sustainability is still one of the most significant dilemmas faced, as the world is still using up more resources than the planet can produce. The earth is a source of produce for resources we rely heavily upon, such as food and water, but this is becoming more limited. The planet can only deal with a specific amount of greenhouse gas emissions to stay healthy. One of the biggest aggravators of environmental degradation is the substantial rate at which humans consume resources, as the manufacture of goods has risen; this has been caused by the economic growth of wealthy economies increasing wealth in the developing world. Although the developed countries hold a significant responsibility for the damage being done to the earth, citizens in the developing countries are the most impacted.
Furthermore, because of climate change, natural disasters have increased significantly in the last 50 years, although the number of deaths linked to natural disasters has decreased. The world is dissolving around us, such as the North pole, because of some of humanity’s choices. Polar ice caps are melting at an alarming rate, while global warming is causing climate change. The Arctic Sea ice decreases at a rate of around 13% per decade, but in the last 30 years, the ‘oldest, thickest ice in the Arctic has deteriorated at an astonishing rate of 95%. If emissions continue to climb without anything being done, the Arctic could be without ice by summer 2040. And that which takes place in the Arctic affects the world, such as sea loss. The Arctic and the Antarctic also affect our temperatures, with the Artic impacting our food as the rise in heatwaves and unstable weather instigated by ice loss has substantial impact on crops and the global food systems we rely on, which could mean increase in prices for us and increased instability when it comes to food and financial stability for the most vulnerable such as those who are on low incomes or in developing countries.
How can we be more sustainable and support the environment?
Use reusable bags
Reusable bags are a sustainable alternative to the use of plastic bags, so make sure to take one along with you, to help the planet and to save money on paying for plastic bags
Use energy-saving lightbulbs
Some lightbulbs are energy efficient such as CFL and LED bulbs to use up less energy than regular incandescent bulbs
Consume less meat
Meat is determinantal to the environment. The Amazon rainforest has suffered catastrophically because of meat production. Meat production also contributes to increased carbon emissions and has been linked to climate change, deforestation, and forest fires.
Avoid facial wipes
The use of facial wipes contributes to paper waste, so why not use a facial cleanser alongside a reusable damp cloth, does the same job and preserves the planet at the same time some my call this a win-win
Recycle as much as possible
Look out for items that are recyclable when purchasing items in the shops or online by looking at the labelling on the item or description on the site
Ditch the teabags for a loose-leaf tea in a strainer alternative
The packaging on teabags contains plastic, so using loose tea bags in a loose strainer is an efficient way of being more eco-friendly without giving up on tea
Grow your own produce if you can
Growing your own produce can be done by planting vegetables in your garden or growing them on your windowsill if you do not have a garden
Look for green options when travelling
If you’re absolutely dedicated to the sustainable lifestyle and want to apply this to each and every part of your life, you could also stay in hotels that back sustainability by recycling or composting waste and using renewable energy. Ecolodges are one option because they have been designed with sustainability in mind as they were intended to have a negligible impact on the environment.
Purchase from sustainable beauty brands
Purchasing beauty products for non-toxic makeup brands and other beauty products that are vegan, organic, or non-Gm products are recommended for more sustainable living as sustainable makeup brands products do not contain the harmful “chemicals, parabens, phthalates or genetically modified ingredients” according to eco-friendly habits.
Check if you have any items which you can refill
The next time something finishes in your house, check if you could get a refill as brands are increasingly making refills to lessen the amount of packaging being used. A penny saved is a penny earned as you will save money buying refills as they are not as expensive as purchasing a replacement.
Replace or change air filters
Air heaters and conditioners use up a lot of your energy, and when their filters get dirty, the energy used is even more. Therefore, cleaning or replacing filters are needed to save on energy.
How could the businesses incorporate sustainability into the work environment?
Businesses could incorporate sustainability in the workplace by reducing their carbon footprint through decreasing the use of raw materials usage and waste. They could also teach employees about sustainability and what they could do to benefit the planet, encouraging employees to re-use and recycle the resources to save energy.
We are all completely reliant on earth for our survival if we destroy this planet we do not currently have another planet in which we can just pack our bags and relocate to; Change starts with us; doing small changes in our lifestyles each day to be more sustainable might not seem like it will make a big difference, but if you inspire others by making changes and others around the world do the same, it will make a big difference in the long-term. It starts with one person; look at Greta Thunberg; she began a one-person mission to reverse climate change by aiming her speeches at the leaders of countries and inspired other young people in Europe and beyond to contemplate the carbon footprint we have been contributing to in the masses and to advocate for future generations. As Mahatma Gandhi says, “Be the change you wish to see in the world”.
Intellisaving and what they are doing to join the sustainability initiative?
Intellisaving is a platform that supports Cash savings and its end-to-end lifecycle. It also has an app for saving that allows users to integrate their saving and interest-bearing accounts into one single platform, making it easier to track and manage accounts, so you don’t have to track your accounts on various platforms making it more time and technology efficient. Intellisaving also has other features such as a personalised portfolio that works as a financial profile with information such as returns, types of accounts, and amounts invested per account, having all the information related to your Savings accounts on your personalised portfolio makes it easier and more efficient. Intellisaving is also preoccupied with contributing to making the planet more sustainable as they care about the wellbeing of our planet; as a result, they encourage users to not use paper statements by having one app that displays and tracks all their saving and interest-bearing balances and transactions through electronic integration so that they can contribute to less paper being produced. The platform is the best app for finance management as it lets you browse the best available Savings products in market and add them to your watchlist for a time when you are ready to start your saving journey. There are many other benefits and please refer to www.intellisaving.com for further details. As part of the Intellisaving initiative, we will continue to look at ways to be more sustainable as an organisation and continue to encourage users to go paperless.
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We all know the phrase by the philosopher Heróclito de Efeso: the only constant is change This phrase that still makes perfect sense, especially today. If in a VUCA world we had ambiguity and instability, with BANI we have chaos and the misunderstanding of how all this chaos came about. VUCA appeared to function as a
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Runes in Unexpected Places: Ziu
One of my friends from long ago, Jamais Cascio, is a well-regarded futurist, who writes amazing thought pieces on his blog "Open the Future" and for various publications. His most recent piece on Medium is "Facing the Age of Chaos", which opens with this image:
My first thought was, "That's Ziu, reversed!"
Ziu—reversed—was the rune in my personal draw today:
(Cards from The Giants’ Tarot, Raven Kaldera.)
Ziu represents the lightning flash of inspiration, which allows you to see just enough to start forward on the path that was revealed and give you the sight of where you want to end up, but does not reveal so much that you have any kind of clear idea how to get there. You are at Point A, you know what Point B will be, but it’s up to you to find the way.
The rune is ascribed to Tyr, the Norse God associated with law and justice. Like Zeus (also associated with this rune, and an etymological, if not theological, relative of Tyr), Tyr can command lightning, although in the form of legal judgment, rather than actual lightning bolts.
The image in the article struck me as an apt representation of the current situation—we are being called to account for our actions (and inactions) by the power of natural forces. It’s not going well for us at all, and there’s no reason to expect otherwise, given our abysmal track record the past few centuries.
The rune also fits nicely in that we know where we are (which is quite a mess), and where we want to be (in a world where people are healthy and safe and can go about their lives), but it’s difficult to say that anyone has much of an idea on how to get there.
We are all figuring this out together; guided by Tyr, we can create a world with better laws and actual justice for all.
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What I Said the Internet of 2020 Would Be Like… In 2011
I anticipated a fragmented web and civil unrest in the West leading to increased authoritarianism
Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash
Elon University and the Pew Research Center have been conducting polls on the impact of the Internet on human society since 2005. The reports were largely based on the insights of experts, and I have, apparently, participated in, and been quoted in, nearly every one.
Here’s how they couch it in their analysis of those predictions, Analysis: 2005–2011 Predictions for Digital Life 2020 — Imagining the Internet:
Since 2004, Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center and Pew Research Center have conducted 12 “Future of the Internet” canvassings of experts. In four of those efforts between 2005 and 2011 the questions asked experts to imagine what digital life might be like in the year 2020.
| In 2005–06, we asked questions about technology’s role in 2020 and sought expert commentary about such things as the scale of internet adoption around the world, whether humans could control technology development and if some tech “refuseniks” might turn violent.
| In 2007–08, we asked experts to explore how intellectual property might be treated in 2020 and whether voice and haptic interfaces for the internet would be widely embraced.
| In the 2009–10 canvassing (the first cycle in which we covered the experts’ responses in a series of separate reports), the questions covered such issues as the future of Millennials’ use of digital tech, how the internet would affect reading and writing, whether institutions and organizations would become more efficient and responsive, the fate of online anonymity, the future of the semantic web and the extent to which cloud computing would be embraced by 2020.
| In 2011, the canvassing focused on predictions about the likely impact of the internet in 2020 on hyperconnected life, where “gamification” might end up, how smart systems might evolve and the future of big data.
In this analysis, we focus on eight predictions in those canvassings. For each, we very briefly summarize views expressed by some experts at that point in time and then outline a few of the related developments that have taken place in the realm of people-plus-technology to assess how those near-past predictions look today. We also interviewed some of the experts who made the original predictions to get their points of view today.
I am featured in one of the eight predictions, based on the 2011 canvassing, The fraught relationship between tech firms and governments:
In the 2011 canvassing, Stowe Boyd, founder and managing director of Work Futures, argued experiences would differ greatly around the world and that civil unrest would play a key role in determining the outcome, writing, “Tech firms based in Western democratic countries will continue to support the compromises of political free speech and personal privacy that are, more or less, encoded in law and policy today. The wild card in the next decade is the degree to which civil unrest is limited to countries outside that circle. If disaffected youth, workers, students, or minorities begin to burn the blighted centers of Western cities, all bets are off because the forces of law and order may rise and demand control of the Web. And, of course, as China and other countries with large populations — like India, Malaysia, and Brazil — begin to create their own software communities, who knows what forms will evolve, or what norms will prevail? But they are unlikely to be what we see in the West. So, we can expect a fragmented Web, where different regions are governed by very different principles and principals.”
Sounds a lot like our 2020, doesn’t it?
They asked me some questions in October 2020 in preparation for the report, (and also published in their analysis) such as this one, which highlights my approach to futures thinking:
ITI: How confident were you in your prediction? What factors were you weighing as you wrote the answer you did?
Boyd: I believed in the narrative of the scenario I laid out, and I tried to connect the threads. But for me thinking about the future is always more like [writing] science fiction than drawing a flowchart.
The entire analysis is fascinating and includes the thoughts of seven others that the researchers singled out for their prescience, including Nicholas Carr, Jamais Cascio, Christine Boese, David Clark, Susan Mernit, ‘Gbenga Sesan, Louis Nauges, and Steven Downes.
A sample from Jamais Cascio:
The intensity of resistance to unwelcome facts across the social spectrum is unexpected and disheartening. I wrote a piece for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists a few months ago noting that people writing stories about the end of the world rarely (if ever) included a large part of the population simply refusing to believe that an unmistakable global disaster was really happening. It’s ridiculous — and it’s real. We have more access to information and facts than at any point in human history, and we seem to be fighting against shared knowledge harder than ever.
It wouldn’t surprise me if those two data points were somehow connected, but thinking too much about how they’re linked is just depressing.
Go read the whole thing.
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The villainization of over-capacity has been a hallmark of the current post-industrial capitalism environment. What we have seen over the past couple of months is the value of slack in a world that’s gone unstable.
Jamais Cascio
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Online AI
C O N T E N T S:
KEY TOPICS
LinkedIn is the largest online professional social network that connects talent with opportunity at scale by leveraging and developing novel AI methods.(More…)
About Nexway Nexway is a leading provider of full-service digital commerce solutions for the digital industry (software, games, digital assets and online services).(More…)
The company is a fintech start-up that…
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PERSPECTIVAS DO INÍCIO DE 2022
PERSPECTIVAS DO INÍCIO DE 2022
Ao observarmos os últimos meses compreendemos de forma prática o significado do termo referido ao mundo BANI criado pelo antropólogo e futurologista norte-americano Jamais Cascio em 2018. Esse novo acrônimo substitui o popular, desde a década de 80, mundo VUCA (traduzindo-se da língua inglesa como Volátil, Incerto, Complexo e Ambíguo).
O novo conceito, BANI, é o acrônimo por sua vez que…
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¿Cuánto tiempo se tarda en aprender a utilizar la informática en la nube?
"La computación en la nube ofrece a las personas acceso a datos y aplicaciones desde casi cualquier punto de acceso a Internet, ofrece a las empresas una forma completamente nueva de reducir los costos de infraestructura técnica y ofrece a las grandes empresas de computadoras un mercado potencialmente gigante de hardware y servicios".
- Jamais Cascio
La tecnología en la nube ha transformado la forma en que operan las empresas en la actualidad. Si bien la innovación en la computación en la nube está cambiando constantemente el panorama, Forrester Research anticipa que el mercado de la computación en la nube experimentaría un crecimiento del 35% en 2021 en comparación con 2020.
Se espera que el mercado mundial de la computación en la nube supere los USD 330 mil millones en 2020.
La seguridad, la privacidad y la escasez de profesionales capacitados y capacitados se encuentran entre las principales barreras para la adopción de la computación en la nube.
Alrededor de un tercio del presupuesto de TI de las empresas contribuye a la computación en la nube.
La principal razón para la adopción de la nube es obtener acceso a los datos literalmente desde cualquier lugar .
Según Cisco, alrededor del 94% de las cargas de trabajo serán procesadas por centros de datos en la nube en 2021.
La adopción de la nube híbrida es de alrededor del 58%.
Ha aprendido que hay una escasez de profesionales capacitados y capacitados en computación en la nube, lo que le brinda una oportunidad de oro si desea aprender y agregar la certificación de computación en la nube a su currículum.
Repasemos ahora la hoja de ruta para aprender la computación en nube.
¿Qué es la computación en la nube?
En pocas palabras, la entrega de diferentes servicios a través de Internet. Estos recursos pueden incluir herramientas y aplicaciones como servidores, almacenamiento de datos, bases de datos, red y software. El almacenamiento en la nube permite almacenar grandes cantidades de datos en los servidores remotos, que anteriormente se almacenaban en discos duros y eran de difícil acceso. Tiene acceso a sus datos y servicios siempre que tenga un dispositivo inteligente y una conexión a Internet.
La mayoría de los negocios y empresas prefieren la computación en la nube por varias razones que incluyen ahorro de costos, velocidad y eficiencia, productividad mejorada , seguridad y rendimiento mejorado.
Los servicios de computación en la nube pueden ser tanto privados como públicos. Los servicios de nube privada son un sistema de redes que brindan servicios alojados a un cierto número de personas. Por otro lado, los servicios de nube pública brindan servicios a través de Internet mediante el pago de una determinada tarifa predefinida (que generalmente es nominal). También existe la opción de ser híbrido. Implica que puede tomar algunos servicios de la nube pública y otros de la nube privada según sus requerimientos.
¿Por qué debería obtener una certificación de computación en la nube?
La principal área de inversión para los profesionales de TI de todo el mundo es la computación en la nube. Para igualar esta inversión monetaria en computación en la nube, las organizaciones necesitan profesionales capacitados en lo mismo.
El panel de toma de decisiones de TI requiere profesionales que puedan validar sus habilidades. La certificación es un testimonio que demuestra sus habilidades en computación en la nube. Si desea convertirse en un profesional experto en computación en la nube, una certificación puede hacer maravillas para usted. Después de todo, un currículum que tiene una certificación es el preferido por los reclutadores de todo el mundo.
Se informa que tres de las cinco certificaciones mejor pagadas se encuentran en certificaciones de computación en la nube.
Además, la demanda de profesionales de la nube crece continuamente en todo el mundo. Un informe de Indeed afirma que hay alrededor de 25000 puestos vacantes en los EE. UU. Relacionados solo con AWS .
El salario medio anual de un administrador de la nube es de unos 78.000 dólares estadounidenses, mientras que el de un desarrollador de nubes ronda los 118.758 dólares. Los que más ganan son los arquitectos de la nube con un salario medio de 124.000 dólares y pueden llegar a los 173.000 dólares. Con salarios tan altos, puede mejorar su potencial de aprendizaje.
Dado que a las empresas les resulta agotador contratar profesionales calificados en computación en la nube, adquirir las habilidades más recientes en el dominio puede hacer que su carrera se resista a las condiciones volátiles del mercado, y así tener una carrera segura.
¿Cómo aprender computación en la nube?
El término 'computación en la nube' se refiere a un vasto panorama de TI que incluye áreas como
hardware, software, virtualización, instalaciones del centro de datos, conceptos de ingeniería de software, DevOps, habilidades de bases de datos, implementación y migración de la nube, seguridad en la nube, aprendizaje automático e inteligencia artificial.
Seguridad en la nube: cuando puede almacenar y recuperar los datos de servidores remotos, proporcionar un servidor seguro es un desafío para los proveedores de servicios en la nube. Específicamente, en el dominio de la nube, la demanda de talento en ciberseguridad aumenta día a día.
Aprendizaje automático e inteligencia artificial: dado que estamos rodeados de aprendizaje automático e inteligencia artificial por todas partes, se considera un segmento de mercado al rojo vivo. Los principales proveedores de servicios en la nube le brindan un buen acceso a las aplicaciones de IA y ML basadas en la nube, lo que eventualmente lo convierte en una de las habilidades vitales de computación en la nube.
Implementación y migración en la nube:
Dado que las organizaciones se mueven de una nube a otra, o de sistemas de TI nativos a plataformas en la nube, siempre necesitan profesionales con habilidades de implementación y migración en la nube en diferentes plataformas.
Habilidades de base de datos:
Se requieren conocimientos de bases de datos, ya que creamos hasta 2,5 quintillones de bytes de datos cada día. Estos datos son importantes para las organizaciones, por lo que los profesionales con habilidades lingüísticas para consultas de bases de datos son la opción preferida para las organizaciones.
Las otras habilidades que debe considerar para convertirse en un excelente profesional de la nube son las habilidades de DevOps, los lenguajes de codificación, la arquitectura sin servidor, la garantía de calidad y la certificación de Linux.
Línea de fondo
Una cosa a tener en cuenta es que "la nube es el pasado, el presente, el futuro". Por lo tanto, siempre existirá la necesidad de profesionales de la computación en nube en todos los sectores, independientemente de su tipo, tamaño o ubicación geográfica.
Aprender habilidades de computación en la nube, idealmente, toma cuatro años. Sin embargo, puede acelerar su aprendizaje y hacerlo en tan solo dos años y medio si busca proveedores de capacitación en línea.
Los proveedores de capacitación en línea diseñan los programas de aprendizaje de tal manera que usted adquiera las habilidades necesarias en el menor tiempo posible y también le brinde orientación profesional.
Inscribirse en un programa de capacitación en línea tiene varios beneficios, algunos de ellos son:
Ahorra tiempo al reducir el tiempo del curso y permitirte aprender a tu propio ritmo.
Le ayuda a avanzar en su carrera al obtener la certificación y avanzar dentro de la empresa.
Los programas acelerados de un instituto acreditado hacen que se concentre en lo que realmente desea lograr, teniendo en cuenta sus objetivos.
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Adieu VUKA - hallo BANI
Von Zeit zu Zeit tauchen neue Sensemaking-Modelle auf. Vor noch nicht ganz 30 Jahren waren war es das VUKA-Modell. Ein Modell, das noch vom kalten Krieg geprägt war. Das ist wirklich lange her und es fragt sich, wie weit das VUKA-Modell noch tauglich ist.
VUKA bedeutet:
Volatilität (volatile, unbeständig)
Unsicherheit (uncertain, unsicher)
Komplexität (complex, komplex)
Ambivalenz (ambiguous, mehrdeutig)
Damit wird zum Ausdruck gebracht, dass wir in einer unbeständigen und unsicheren Welt leben, deren Komplexität eine Unzahl Mehrdeutigkeiten zulässt. Die Frage ist dann, wie man dem begegnen kann.
Die Antwort auf die VUKA-Welt war:
V wie Vision, eine Vorstellung über eine wünschenswerte Welt, in der Sinnstiftung möglich ist
U wie Understanding, das verstehbar machen, was um uns herum geschieht
C wie Clarity, Fokus auf das Wesentliche, Klarheit schaffen
A wie Adaptility und Agility, anpassungsfähig sein und Resilienz fördern
Nun taucht ein anderes Modell auf: BANI. Es ist gut nachvollziehbar, dass ein neues Sensemaking-Modell auftaucht. Denn wir leben nicht mehr in den Nachwehen des kalten Krieges und in den letzten fast 30 Jahren hat sich doch einiges verändert.
Der amerikanische Wissenschaftler Jamais Cascio hat im Frühling 2020 mit seinem Beitrag «Facing the Age of Chaos» das VUKA-Modell weiterentwickelt. Cascio bietet damit einen neuen Denkrahmen an.
B wie Brittle, brüchig
A wie Anxious, ängstlich
N wie Non-linear, nicht-linear
I wie Incomprehensible, unbegreiflich
Wenn man diese Begriffe mit dem VUKA-Modell vergleicht ist unschwer eine Entwicklung festzustellen: aus unbeständig wird brüchig, aus unsicher wird ängstlich, aus komplex wird nicht-linear und aus mehrdeutig wird unbegreiflich. Wenn wir auf unsere aktuelle Coronasituation schauen ist leicht festzustellen, wie gut diese Begrifflichkeiten passen.
Auch hier gibt es Antworten:
Brüchigkeit braucht Belastbarkeit
Angst braucht Empathie und Achtsamkeit
Nicht-Linearität braucht Kontext und grössere Zusammenhänge
Unbegreiflichkeit braucht Transparenz und Intuition
Was heisst das nun für mich als Ausbilder von Ausbildenden? Wie komme ich den Antworten auf BANI näher?
· Belastbarkeit kann ich erreichen mit der Förderung von Selbstwirksamkeit bei meinen Studierenden. Ich schaffe Unterrichtssituation in denen sie die Erfahrung machen, dass sie in dieser Welt etwas bewirken können.
· Achtsamkeit lebe ich, in dem ich auf das eingehe, was die Studierenden beschäftigt. Ich nehme ihre Lebenswelt in den Unterrichtsraum hinein und arbeite mit dem, was sie mitbringen.
· Kontext und grössere Zusammenhänge schaffe ich, dass ich gemeinsam mit den Studierenden herausfinde, was das zu lernende für ihre Lebenswelt bedeutet. Welchen Wert es in ihrer persönlichen Zukunft hat.
· Transparenz schaffe ich, in dem ich aufzeige, warum ich was tue und ihre Intuition hoffe ich zu fördern, in dem ich sie in ihrem Vertrauen in sie selber unterstütze.
Quellen:
https://stephangrabmeier.de/bani-vs-vuca/
https://www.vuca-welt.de
Bilder: Pixabay johnhain
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