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abovetheradarnews · 4 years

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Revolutionizing Electric Cars in Recovery.

Across the globe governments are employing various tactics to try and spark electric vehicle (EV) sales. Pun intended. With an almost grinding halt to global automobile manufacturing, an impending global recession and fast approaching deadlines to meet CO2 targets European governments are increasingly using economic stimulus packages to re-shape their transport sectors.

As part of a larger economic stimulus package the German government pledged €2 billion worth of support for R&D over the next two years for the auto industry, including suppliers. Of note is the whopping €50-billion designated for “addressing climate change, innovation and digitization” with several measures to promote electric mobility. This post explores the German EV passenger car market post covid.

Pre-Covid

Across the EU EV’s constitute about 1.5% of new registered passenger vehicles. Despite an impressive burst of sales in 2017 globally electric-car sales generally remained relatively flat in 2019, but one country is leading the charge. Again, pun intended.

In 2019 Germany became the world's third largest EV market with 108,600 newly- registered EVs representing a 61% percent rise in sales compared to a 24% increase for 2018. Here's a look at the most popular models of 2019, and of 2020 thus far.

But before we start talking about rebates, taxes and such we ought to understand the larger picture. Let’s set the scene and establish our baseline of facts and assumptions.

Facts: In the EU Transport is responsible for nearly 30% of the EU’s total CO2 emissions, of which 60.7% is specifically from passenger cars. Globally the typical passenger vehicle emits around 4.6 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year.

On 17 April 2019, the European Parliament and the Council adopted Regulation (EU) 2019/631. The Regulation entered into force 1 January 2020 aiming to reduce the average CO2 emissions from new cars by 15% in 2025 and by 37.5% in 2030, both relative to a 2021 baseline. For light-commercial vehicles, a 15% target for 2025 and a 31% target for 2030 were agreed upon. Under the EU law member states are free to adopt their own environmental targets above and beyond the Regulation.

In 2016 Germany confirmed they will impose a mandate for all new cars registered in the country to be emissions free by 2030 as part of their larger pledge to cut carbon dioxide output by 80% to 95% by 2050.

Assumption: This is assuming vehicles have an average fuel economy of about 22.0 miles per gallon (mpg) and travel around 11,500 miles per year. Curious what your vehicle's fuel efficiency is, check out the 2019 model guidelines here.

The German Policy

In Germany, electric mobility encompasses all types of vehicles that primarily use energy taken from the electricity grid, for example externally chargeable vehicles. These include exclusively battery-powered electric vehicles (BEV), electric vehicles with a small combustion engine and range extender (REEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles that charge from the electric grid (PHEV).

Since mid-2016 Germany’s EV policy has consisted of subsidies and tax breaks based on the initial netlist price of the vehicle. At the national level the government provides the majority of financial support while provinces and cities often sweeten the deal implementing their own additional incentiviations. Since the introduction of the subsidy the number of new registrations increased from about 1,500 to more than 10,000 per month in October 2019. Wunderbar. What’s more is that despite slow economic recovery experts are still predicting that thanks to the new incentives, Germany could reach its 10% milestone in 2020!

Here’s a breakdown of the new environmental bonus.

Previously 40,000 euros was the critical limit, which has now been boosted to 60,000 euros. The prior EV incentives of €3,000 were doubled to €6,000 while more expensive BEVs received 5,000 euros. The environmental bonus is financed half by the federal government and half by the manufacturers – although, in practice, the manufacturer’s share is subject to 19 per cent VAT (value added tax), which has now been reduced to 16% across Germany until the end of this year.

In addition the company car tax rate, established in 2019, will be further reduced, from 0.5% to 0.25%, for vehicles with a net list price below 40,000 EUR. The company car tax program was a significant contributor to sales in 2019, as popular car sharing car when VW’s 'We Share' in Berlin acquired 1,500 e-Golfs

Recovery

Despite the Covid-related lockdown in the second half of March, Germany's slow recovery has not slowed down the plug-in growth rate. In May alone there were 12,333 new registered units, up 56% YoY, mostly thanks to PHEVs, that jumped an amazing 107%, with last month plugin share reaching 7.3% (3.3% BEV), keeping the yearly tally at 7.6% (3.7% BEV). It seems as though the EV trend is well on it’s way in Germany.

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abovetheradarnews · 4 years

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A Brief History of Rolls-Royce.

Rolls-Royce remains one of the most famous names in engineering throughout the world. Popular among government elites, royalty, and now increasingly among the young and affluent as there has been a near 10-year decline in the average owner’s age from 56 to 40. That is lower than the average age of car buyers overall, which hovers around 52, and younger than the average age of luxury car buyers, too, which is 50, according to Kelley Blue Book. Whatever your age, the Rolls-Royce has become a global marque symbol of success. However, some maybe surprised to learn that the manufactures of ‘the best motor car in the world,’ also produced aero engines which would go on to power the infamous British Spitfires in World War II.

In 2019 the company reached record automotive sales, selling 5,152 cars marking a staggering 25% increase from 2018. 2020, is an entirely different story and the jet engine manufacturing sector has been hit hard. Following the shutdown of air travel, the company laid-off nearly 9,000 personnel, about 17% of its global workforce. The aerospace sector has seen recession before – at least four times- with the greatest impact resulting in a 68 per cent decline between 1968 and 1971. The crisis has not just impacted expectations for engine sales but has fundamentally altered the company’s business model of earning its living on long-term service agreements. This post explores the history, and future of Rolls-Royce in the aerospace sector.

In The Beginning

Henry Royce’s early life is the anthesis of what the company today embodies. A man of Cambridgeshire farming stock, and the son of a struggling miller, Royce attend night schools while completing his engineering apprenticeship. After graduation in 1884 he opened his own electrical engineering business in Manchester before designing and building his own car in 1904. His meticulous work ethic attracted the attention of a motorist by the name of Henry Edmunds, whom had good relations with a foreign car importer and insisted the two meet.

That man was Charles Rolls, a socialite entrepreneur who had been selling Panhard’s and wanted something better, specifically his name on an all English car. In 1904 the two met over lunch at the Grand Central Hotel in Manchester, and in a if you build them, I’ll sell them arrangement, Rolls-Royce was born. By the end of that year Rolls-Royce’s were appearing on British roads, marked by the characteristic Spirit of Ecstasy sculpture fastened to the front radiator. The company’s official entry into the elite ethos came in March of 1906 following the launch of the six-cylinder Silver Ghost, which became known as ‘that best car in the world.’ The engine's compression ratio was only 3.2:1, held a 48 brake horsepower at 1,500 rpm, and would deliver 50-mph cruising speeds. The Silver Ghost chassis alone cost £985, close to $5,000 at the time, five or 10 times what the average professional could expect to make in a year. Pricey. But as Henry Royce used to say, “the quality will remain long after the price is forgotten.”

The 1907, the Silver Ghost was declared ‘The Best Car in the World’ after its record-breaking success. Travelling from London to Glasgow 27 times - covering 14,371 consecutive miles - the iconic motor car broke the world record for a non-stop motor run while demonstrating unrivalled reliability and comfort.

Despite astonishing success, Rolls again wanted more and by 1907 his interests had increasingly turned to flying. On numerous occasions he had unsuccessfully attempted to persuade Royce and the other directors to design an aero engine.

The Out Break of War

The outbreak of World War I in August of 1914 took many by surprise. Much like the public the directors at Rolls-Royce believed that everyone would be home by Christmas, dismissing the concerns of Claude Johnson- whom was then the commercial and managing director- that the bank would withdraw its overdraft facility on which Rolls-Royce depended at that time. As a manufacturer of luxury cars, the company was immediately vulnerable to the basic principles of economies which dictates when income declines so does demand production of luxury goods. Nevertheless, the directors initially decided not to seek government contracts in making aero engines.

However, this position was quickly reversed following requests from the British War Office to develop a new 200 hp (150 kW) air-cooled engine under licence from Renault and after some negation it was decided that that engine would be cooled by water rather than air, as this was the company's area of expertise. In 1915 the company developed its first aero engine, the twelve-cylinder Eagle. The Eagle became the first engine to make a non-stop trans-Atlantic crossing by aeroplane in June 1919. Following the general overarching philosophy, omne trium perfectum- which states that everything perfect comes in threes- the company soon produced the six-cylinder Hawk, the 190 hp Falcon, and the 675 hp Condor. By the end of the First World War the company had provided more than 60 percent of British-built aircraft engines. Despite major success after the war demand for such motors declined, and the company returned to motorcars, but not for long.

The Schneider Cup

Jacques Schneider was a man of great wealth. The son of a French armaments manufacturer he developed a fond love of high-speed boating. In 1908 Schneider met Wilbur Wright, (I’m not sure where Orville was at the party) but none the less one of two brothers was enough to ignite a newfound interest in aviation. Looking to take his love of boating to the skies, Schneider would use his wealth and influence to announced the creation of a new international competition for hydroplanes in 1912. Naturally, the competition was named after himself as La Coupe d’Aviation Maritime Jacques Schneider.

Sadly, the technology displayed at the Schneider races trailed the ingenuity of the aircraft industry, however, and there was little real competition. At the time the Italians built the best hydroplanes, and other nations were not too interested in taking them on, even though by 1921 the winning speed was only 118 mph. But as history has taught us, if there is a competition, never count out Americas’ government funding, military rivalry, and public acclaim to pull through.

In the early 1920’s, competitions between the U.S. services had produced a series of outstanding Curtiss racing biplanes. Three years later the American Navy debuted at the Schneider race and took the first and second positions with the Curtiss CR-3 floatplanes, averaging over 177 mph, demonstrating to Europe the rapid strides U.S. aviation had made since World War I. Similar to school yard games, victors were to host the competition the following year, marking it the first time Europeans would face the prospect of competing on the other side of the Atlantic.

Following some technical difficulties, it was not until 1925 that the British and Italians made it Baltimore. Unlike the Americans, who were fully supported by their government, the British Air Ministry took a major step forward and ordered aircraft from two companies for “technical development.” Gloster refined an existing biplane, but at Supermarine a young designer named Reginald J. Mitchell started from scratch. Mitchell soon approached Sir Henry Royce, and so began a partnership between Supermarine and Rolls-Royce.

Rolls-Royce provided assurances that they could supply an engine of at least 1,500 hp, with development up to 1,900 hp, and, most importantly, little or no increase in the frontal area. Supermarine gave Rolls-Royce only six months to produce the power unit and the result was a fully tested "R" engine. The R-engine used high-performance fuels along with superchargers, which pumped additional air into the cylinders to burn more fuel. The collaboration between the Rolls-Royce’s R engine, and the Supermarine S6B plane, designed by R.J. Mitchell, who would go on to design the famous Spitfire of World War II, set a 1931 world speed record of 407 miles per hour (655 miles per hour). The engine also produced 2,783 horsepower on a test stand. The R engine pointed a clear path to the future. But it had a very short operating life and relied on costly and highly specialized fuels. Rolls-Royce now faced the challenge of building engines of similar power that could achieve long life while burning conventional aviation gasoline. The company met this challenge with its great wartime series: the Merlin, which entered development in 1933 and they would go on to build some 160,000 of these engines, in 52 versions by the end of the war.

The Future Unknowns of Flying

June 5, 2020 the company joined the Race to Zero campaign, a new UN-backed initiative that aims to draw net zero commitments from private and state actors in the lead up the COP26 climate conference. The company aims to reach net zero emissions across its operations by 2030 and its wider footprint 20 years later. Transitioning facilities power sources to renewable energy, pioneering closed loop-manufacturing for high value metals, and developing microgrids will, in the short-term, bring the company in line with its own short- term targets. However, the company’s future in the commercial aero world appears bleak. As do many other airplane manufacturers. Just this year, Boeing itself sold the remaining majority of its CRJ regional jet program to Japanese Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. What’s more Airbus, the French manufacturer received no new orders for the entire month of May, with their CEO not so subtly threatening to sue anyone who reneges on prior orders.

Globally airlines are retiring old fleet and reducing overall capacity in response to dramatic declines in passenger traffic. When passenger demand return, to normal rates, if ever, it is expected that airlines will increasingly be looking to purchase single isle more efficient fleets. However, without a crystal ball it is unclear if Rolls-Royce will keep looking to the skies in the future.

#rolls royce #airlines #manufacturer #boeing #airbuss #passengers #travel #cars #automotives #engines #ghost

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abovetheradarnews · 4 years

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The Value of Mobility When Nobody is Moving.

A brief outlook on segmented passenger transport in Ottawa.

Since March bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters and concerts have all shut their doors. For public services and private companies whose value is generated by moving people from A to B there are a lot of new unknown mediating variables in 2020. For many restaurants value is retained through online orders, while other services such as gyms and entertainment are increasingly going virtual. With teleportation still many, many years away mobility services are well... stagnant. With people stuck at home and travel almost eliminated, the prior necessities or frustrations of commuting to work in 2019 seems so long ago. But for those who work in either public transportation or under ride hailing/sharing services such as Uber or Lyft the working from home life looks very different. It is expected that the city's various mobility segments will continue to suffer in their second quarter due to an impending global recession, overall decline in demand, and public attitudes anticipated in the wake of COVID-19.

Overall Outlook

OCTranspo - Bleak. On June 17th first-quarter results (April - June) are expected to be tabled at the city's next transit commission. In early April the city’s treasurer, Wendy Stephanson, told the council that OC Transpo was looking at a $45-million deficit if pandemic restrictions continued through the end of June. Across the entire organization, the City of Ottawa has said it was losing about $1 million per week, with much of that lost revenue at OC Transpo after ridership plummeted by 70 to 90 per cent since the pandemic began. Without a crystal ball it’s difficult to predict what passenger numbers will look like post covid. In China the outbreak of SARS in 2003 even ended up spurring demand for cars among some commuters who didn’t want to risk infection by taking public transit. By the end of the year nearly 2 million cars were sold, representing a three-quarter increase from 2002. However, unlike during the SARS major automotive production factories halted production assembly lines putting an almost entire halt to the automotive supply chain. To see more, Bain & Company modeled three scenarios, ranging from a mild impact on expected sales to a worst-case reduction of more than 20%.

Ride-Hailing Services - Bleak. Ride-hailing/sharing services used to be all the rage for investors and users. It was disruptive, technologically savvy, client focused, and let's be honest continues to have some advantageous / questionable employment loopholes. However, in the first quarter of this year, global funding in mobility and automotive enterprises — particularly those in ride-hailing, ride-sharing, and micro mobility services — shrank 16 percent according to CB Insights market analyses. Yikes. However, on the front lines things are not looking much better. As my last driver said “nobody is going anywhere, or doing anything.”

Employment

OC Transpo - Stable for now. While OC Transpo says it has no plans to lay off employees, Gatineau's public transit agency says it could soon start sending as many as 81 drivers home if Quebec doesn't relax pandemic restrictions by mid-June. As The Société de transport de l'Outaouais (STO) said it's seen an 85 per cent drop in ridership since March, prompting a 50 percent cut in transit service with lossed of $3.6 million in revenue as a result.

Ride-Hailing Services - Unfavorable. In March current CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said that gross bookings in most major cities were down as much as 70 percent. Despite all the extra Uber-Eats orders, the company's newest food delivery division has failed to make-up for lost profits in Ubers core business of moving people, not McDonalds. Two months later, in May Uber laid off 3,700 employees, or 14 percent of its global workforce. In March the company announced it would suspend licenses and account of those who had tested positive or were potentially exposed to the virus. In Mexico 240 accounts of users were suspended, with the company stating it would offer compensation to drivers and delivery people diagnosed with the coronavirus or placed in quarantine for up to 14 days. For the foreseeable future this might not be your best full time or side hustle to venture into.

#Ottawa #OCTranspo #transport #busses #public transport #uber #transit #mobility #ride sharing #cities #jobs #futureout #dara khosrowshahi

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abovetheradarnews · 4 years

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Discrimination in Airline Complaints

Each month the US. Department of Transportation's Office of Aviation Enforcement and Proceedings (OAEP) produces an Air Travel Consumer Report designed to assist consumers with information on the quality of services provided by the airlines. Reports outlines consumer complaints based on data compiled by the Office of Aviation Consumer Protection. The two tables below represent complaints filed under discrimination for March 2020, followed by a historical analysis of complaints filed. Discrimination is characterized as that alleged discrimination in air travel based on race, ancestry/ethnicity, national origin, color, religion and sex. It should be noted that all complaints alleging discrimination are investigated to determine if there has been a violation(s) of the passenger’s civil rights.

#Airlines #DOT #US #Complaints #airindustry #passengerrights #flying #travel #Unitedairlines #aircanada #Jetblue #discrimination #civil rights

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abovetheradarnews · 4 years

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History of discrimination complaints in US Airlines.

#United Airlines #Travel #airlines #airline #united states #discrimination #civil rights #passenger rights #race #aircanada #air canada #transport

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abovetheradarnews · 4 years

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How will airports adopt post covid-19?

Declared airport terminal capacity is about to go out the window if every passenger is entitled to their own 4m2 bubble. A report by SimpliFlying predicts that “in total, over 70 different areas in the passenger journey are expected to either change or to be introduced from scratch to restore confidence in flying after COVID-19.” As such, coordination between airport authorities, other statutory authorities, and designers working in airports will be needed to ensure that the implementation of new measures are as streamlined as possible to minimize the time and costs for everyone as existing passenger processing is entirely reconfigured.

Let us be honest, any public place is a germ fest. Your local grocery store, gas station, post office, and airport. However, what amplifies our fears in airports is that these germs are being transported from all over the world. Last year alone Toronto's Pearson Airport facilitated travel for over 47 million passengers and handled over 312,000 tons of air cargo. That is just around 94 million hands, and if the findings of a 2009 study from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are true, then only 31 percent of men and 65 percent of women wash their hands. Yikes.

But increased cleaning measures with stronger soaps is really scraping the bottom of the barrel here. Airports might come to face intense public pressure to reform their practices and physical operations. In addition to requiring travelers and employees wear face masks, airports are examining how to adapt their every aspect to a post-COVID-19 world. Here is how each part of the journey through airports may change.

Entering the Airport:

So long to the teary-eyed departures with hugs from loved ones. It is speculated that airports will limit entrance to travellers only. So, say your goodbyes in the parking lot. Further down the line, passengers could also pass through a disinfection tunnel and thermal scanners called ‘garages’ when entering the airport, SimpliFlying predicts. "Only those 'fit to fly' will be allowed to enter," the firm's report says. Thermal cameras, which can scan a crowd for a feverish temperature, are already in use at several facilities including Heathrow, Puerto Rico's San Juan airport, and Paine Field—a secondary airport in Seattle. Once at the airport a suite of touchless check in options will be available, this includes all-biometric systems (think NEXUS). Self-bag drops will further reduce contact and eliminate germs as bags move through disinfecting tunnels.

AirPort Arrivals

Numerous airlines and airports are requiring mandatory temperature checks, health questionnaires, facial coverings, and social distancing. Right now, thermal cameras are being implemented in multiple airports for temperature checks. However, it’s expected that handheld, no-contact infrared thermometers will become the new normal once passenger demand returns.

There are no federal requirements yet from the TSA or Federal Aviation Administration mandating such health screenings for travelers or employees. But U.S. airlines are pushing for there to be uniform federal regulations. In Canada, only one airline, Air Canada, has announced that it will begin mandatory customer pre-flight temperature checks system-wide effective May 15 until June 30, 2020 as part of the airline’s new CleanCare+ program.

Upon arrival, international passengers will likely need to show some form of immunity passport to border control agents, SimpliFlying predicts. An immunity document is something the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has advocated for as well. Some airports, like Hong Kong and Vienna, are testing passengers for the coronavirus with a blood test before they can enter the country. Those types of tests, however, will probably be short lived.

In short, there are many more aspects which will need to be re-assessed. Including the dreaded on-boarding process which often resembles a human Tetris game.

#airline #airport #aviation #masks #hong kong #covid #flying #aircanada #FAA #US #CANADA #boarding #travel

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abovetheradarnews · 4 years

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God Save the Queen of the Skies?

Known as the Queen of the Skies, the Boeing 747’s long and rich history in the aviation world might be winding down. Since early March, 17 of the current 153 international airlines have folded under financial stress, while others have dramatically reduced their capacity in response to the Covid-19 outbreak. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) the international air passenger market is expected to experience an overall reduction ranging from 32% to 59% of seats offered by airlines, and an overall reduction of 1,825 to 3,208 million passengers for the remainder of 2020. Let that sink in.

With a lack of both current, and future demand I think it is a worthwhile time to review the past, present, and possible future of Boeings’ infamous 747’s.

The Brief (very brief) History of the Jumbo Jet;

As the story goes, in the mid-sixties Pan Am desperately wanted a larger aircraft to service its growing overseas routes. In response, Boeing began to modify its existing designs, made for troops and equipment, to one that would soon carry US Presidents, Princes, and your average air travel passenger.

Now modify, is a very loose term which glosses over the extraordinary engineering feats undertaken by Joseph Frederick Sutter - also known as the “father of the 747s” - and his team. In a mere 29 months Boeing had not only designed and built the 747, but it also built the entire Everett manufacturing factory while building the airplane's first mockup on the floor. And by 1966 the 747 was born, and Pan Am ordered 25 of the aircraft. Two years later, on September 30, 1968 the first 747 rolled out of the factory. Since then, millions of passengers have had the opportunity to fly 30,000 feet above ground level in this one-of-a-kind jumbo jet.

Oldies but goodies:

Despite their age, many of the original 747’s are still in operation with varying uses. Nearly 50 years later passengers can still experience the 747’s. Outside the US, you can still fly classic 747-400s with British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Thai Airways, KLM, Qantas, and Lufthansa. While inside the US you are unlikely to set foot on any of the four remaining 747s operated by the US Air Force, also known as the Boeing E-4Bs. Operated under the National Military Command System these planes carry the President, the Secretary of Defense, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff and are specially equipped with secure communications and control centers should they be required to serve as command centres. The plane's wide body and adaptability make it an international luxury, also flown by The Sultan of Oman, and members of the Saudia Arabian Government.

As a quick, interesting fact the oldest Boeing 747 passenger jet is around 31 years old and currently flies for Mahan Air, EP-MNB, and previously with United Airlines. For context, Mahan Air is an Iranian airline. As such the multitude of sanctions imposed enable the acquisition of newer aircraft.

Post -Covid-19 who knows if these will return to skies anytime soon. However, Boeing is still building freighter models of the 747-8.

#airlines #aircraft #boeing #policy #transport #british airways #virgin atlantic #us air force #iran #jumbo jet

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