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nw7us · 4 days

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Apr 15 0158 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 April 2024

Solar activity reached high levels on 11 Apr due to an M5.4 flare at 11/1706 UTC from Region 3637 (S12, L=231, class/area=Cso/40 on 14 Apr); the largest event of the period. Moderate levels of solar activity were observed on 13-14 Apr due to an M2.4 flare at 13/0502 UTC and an M4.3 flare at 14/0232 UTC from Region 3637. The remainder of the period saw low levels of solar activity with C-class flares observed. Two CMEs, associated with filament eruptions near N20E02 at 11/0600 UTC and S16W14 at 12/0020 UTC, were anticipated to arrive on 14 Apr, but ultimately were not detected in the solar wind by the end of 14 Apr.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the week.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled over 08-10 Apr due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and unsettled levels were observed over 11-12 Apr, and quiet levels were observed over 13-14 Apr, as CH HSS influences subsided and nominal solar wind conditions returned.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 April - 11 May 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels throughout the outlook period, with C-class flare activity expected and a varying chance for M-class flare activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 15 Apr due to CH HSS influences and CME effects. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 11 days

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Apr 08 0055 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 April 2024

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 01 Apr due to an M3.9/Sf flare at 01/0132 UTC from Region 3625 (N13, L=174, class/area=Dai/80 on 01 Apr); the largest event of the period. The remainder of the period saw low level solar activity with C-class flares observed from several unremarkable active regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed as a result of this periods activity.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 01 Apr, and unsettled levels on 02-03 Apr, due to weak positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions were observed again on 04 Apr, with unsettled levels observed on 05-06 Apr, due to weak negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions and a nominal solar wind environment prevailed over 07 Apr.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 April - 04 May 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels throughout the outlook period, with C-class flare activity expected and a varying chance for M-class flare activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 04 May.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 09-10 Apr in response to anticipated positive polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 18 days

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Apr 01 0214 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 - 31 March 2024

Solar activity was dominated by significant flare activity from Region 3615 (S13, L=216, class/area Fkc/1140 on 26 Mar). During the period, Region 3615 produced 62 C-class flares, 11 (R1-Minor) flares, 3 (R2-Moderate) flares and 1 (R3-Strong) flare. The largest event of the period was an X1.1/3b flare at 28/2056 UTC. Numerous CMEs were detected with these flares, but none indicated an Earth-directed component. C-class activity was also detected from Regions 3621 (N17, L=254, class/area Cso/040 on 25 Mar), 3622 (N19, L=139, class/area Dao/060 on 24 Mar) and 3625 (N12, L=040, class/area Dai/040 on 31 Mar).

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at elevated levels from the previous period's events, but remained below event threshold.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels on 25 Mar as the field was in the waning stages from previous CME activity. Quiet to unsettled periods dominated the period from 26-31 March. An isolated active period was observed early on 31 Mar due to a transition from a CIR into a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 April - 27 April 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels with a lingering chance for an M-class flare through 12 Apr. An increased chance for moderate to high activity will be present from 13-27 April upon the return of old Region 3615 (S13, L=216).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit until the return of old Region 3615 on 12 Apr. A chance for minor to moderate activity will be present from 13-27 Apr.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active periods on 01-05 Apr, 09-11 Apr, 19-23 Apr and 27 Apr all due to CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 06-08 Apr, 12-18 Apr and 24-26 Apr.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 25 days

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Mar 25 0644 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 March 2024

Solar activity during the week reached high levels. The largest flare was an X1.1/ 2F at 23/0133 UTC. Region 3614 (N17, L=224, Dso-B/210 on 23 Mar) produced the flare which appeared along a filanment channel to the north of the spot group. A 240 SFU 10cm radio burst and Type II sweep (791 km/s) were observed. The flare was also accompanied by an EUV wave, dimming and post-eruptive arcades visible in GOES SUVI 195 Angstrom imagery. An asymmetric halo cme was first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 23/0048 UTC. Plane of sky measurments averaged from C2 and C3 suggested the CME was moving at 1492 km/s. While Region 3614 produced the largest flare of the week, Region 3615 (S13, L-215, Fkc-BGD/810 on 24 March) was the most prolific. It produced 27 M-class flares during the week, three of which were greater than M5 (R2). The largest was an M7.4, 3B on 20/0736 UTC.

The X1.1 and CME described above triggered a 10 MeV proton event. The 10 MeV flux began rising at 23/0400 UTC, crossed the 10 pfu (S1) threshold at 23/0815 UTC and the 100 pfu (S2) threshold at 23/1405 UTC. The event peaked on 23/1820 UTC at 956 pfu. A second peak of 687 pfu was observed at 24/1230 UTC as the CME described earlier approached.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from normal to moderate levels throughout the week.

Four distinct geomagnetic storms ocurred during the week. The first was associated with a CME arrival at 21/0225 UTC. Bz dipped southward to -12 nt and, and a couple of periods of prolonged southward Bz led to three synoptic periods of minor (G1) geomagnetic storm conditions between 21/1200-2100 UTC. The second even began on 22/2320 UTC Bz shifted southward around 23/0100 UTC and remained there for about 7 hours. This gave rise to two periods of minor (G1) geomagnetic storm conditions between 23/0300-0900 UTC. This activity was most likely a CIR, in advance of a negative polarity coronal hole, based on the density increase and rotation of the Phi angle .Solar wind speed and temperature began rising at the end of the storm activity, suggesting the high-speed stream had become geoeffective. The third storm began with the 23/1800 UTC UTC synoptic period (Kp=5-, G1), peaked during the 2100-0000 UTC synoptic period, reaching Kp=6- (G2), and returned to G1 conditions for the final period from 24/0000 UTC to 24/0300 UTC. The final storm began with the arrival of the CME described in the first paragraph. The interplanetary shock arrived at L1 at 24/1411 UTC and a sudden impulse (377 nT at Meanook Observatory) was detected at 24/1437 UTC. Solar wind speed jumped from the 500-550 km/s high speed stream values to approximately 800 km/s and remained elevated. Bz dipped southward to -27 nT at 24/1510 UTC. Kp ranged from 6+ (G2) moderate storm conditions to 8o (G4) sever conditions between 24/1200-2100 UTC. The severe synoptic period was from 24/1500-1800 UTC. The magnetic cloud appears to have arrived around 24/1826 UTC distinguised by a slow rotation of the Phi angle. Earth was still within the magnetic cloud at the end of this reporting period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 March - 20 April 2024

The threat of high solar activity remains throughout the coming week. Region 3615 (Fkc-BGD) is expected to remain on the visible disk until March 29th-30th. The departure of Region 3615 is anticipated to bring a period of low solar activity with a lingering chance for M flares. Regions 3614 and 3615 are expected to return on April 11th, increasing the potential for moderate to high activity.

Along with the high solar activity, there is a chance for another proton event at geosynchronous orbit, with the greatest threat from Region 3615 until it departs. The threat will decrease until the region returns on April 11th.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the forecast period. The high levels are anticipated between March 28th-31st, and again from 6-8 April in the wake of coronal holes.

The beginning of the forecast period is expected to see strong (G3) geomagnetic conditions declining to mostly quiet conditions after March 26th. Levels will increase to potentially minor (G1) levels with the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream on April 3rd-5th. High speed streams on April 9th-11th and 19th-20th are expected to bring less than minor (G1) storm conditions. The threat of more CMEs and subsequent storms associated with Regions 3614 and 3615, or with new regions that emerge, remains.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 1 month

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Mar 18 0617 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 - 17 March 2024

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were reached on 14 Mar due to an M1.0/sf flare at 14/0604 UTC from Region 3599 (S12, L=065, class/area Dao/230 on 12 Mar). On 16 Mar, Moderate levels were once again seen as an M3.5 and an M1.1 occurred at 16/1635 UTC and 16/2155 UTC from a region just beyond the SE limb. Region 3599 was also responsible for a series of CMEs just beyond the SW limb which occurred at 15/0210 UTC and 15/0328 UTC. Modelling of the event indicated no Earth-directed component, however, an associated minor solar radiation storm (S1) was observed. Other activity included an approximate 35 degree filament channel eruption centered near S28W25 beginning at 17/0100 UTC. Two subsequent CMEs were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery off the SSE and SW limbs at 17/0312 UTC and 17/0336 UTC, respectively. Modelling indicated possible glancing blows late on 20 Mar to early on 21 Mar.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event above the 10 pfu (S1/Minor) threshold as a result of activity from Region 3599 beyond the SW limb early on 15 Mar. The event began at 15/2050 UTC, reached a peak flux of 16.7 pfu at 16/0635 UTC, and ended at 16/1505 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 11 Mar due to CH HSS influence. A peak of 1,420 pfu was observed at 11/1605 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed decreased on 11 Mar as weak negative polarity CH HSS influence diminished. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed midday on 11 Mar followed by another mild increase in solar wind speed and total field on 12-13 Mar. Solar wind speed reached a maximum around 484 km/s by 14/1350 UTC with total field near 9 nT early on 14 Mar due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled periods on 12 and 14 Mar and an isolated active period early on 15 Mar. Solar wind speed slowly decreased around 290 km/s with total field values below 5 nT by the end of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 March - 13 April 2024

There is a chance for moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels through 31 Mar, mainly due to the flare potential of Region 3614 (N16, L=223, class/area Hax/080 on 17 Mar) and an unnumbered region rotating onto the SE limb. Low levels with a slight chance of M-class flares are likely on 01-13 Apr.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 07-08 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with G1 (Minor) storming likely, on 20-21 Mar due to activity from the 17 Mar CMEs. Unsettled levels are expected on 28-29 Mar, 03-05 Apr, and 09-11 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 1 month

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Mar 11 0558 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 March 2024

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Region 3599 (S13, L=067, class/area Dai/220 on 09 Mar) produced two M-class flares. The first was an impulsive M1.3/Sf at 08/2126 UTC. The second was an M7.4 flare at 10/1213 UTC with an associated 340 sfu Tenflare, a Type II radio sweep (714 km/s), a weak Castelli U radio signature, and a CME directed off the NW limb at 10/1248 UTC. Initial modelling of the CME indicated no Earth-directed component, however further analysis is on-going. A faint partial halo was observed beginning at 10/1812 UTC in coronagraph imagery, likely related to a C6.9/1f flare at 10/1538 UTC from Region 3599. Initial analysis showed a glancing blow around midday on 13 Mar.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. A slight enhancement to near 0.4 pfu was observed following the M7.4 flare at 10/1213 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 739 pfu observed at 10/1935 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The period began under the influence of CME activity that left the Sun on 28 Feb. Total field reached 13 nT early on 04 Mar and diminished to 5-7 nT by 05 Mar. Solar wind speed gradually increased from approximately 350 km/s to near 460 km/s during this time. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 04 Mar and quiet to unsettled levels on 05 Mar. Solar wind speed continued in the 350-460 km/s range through early on 08 Mar. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 06-07 Mar. By 08 Mar, solar wind speed increased to around 515 km/s due to negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) activity. Solar wind speed slowly decreased thereafter to near 410 km/s by the end of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 08-09 Mar and quiet to unsettled levels on 10 Mar.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 March - 06 April 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares on 11-14 Mar due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3599. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 15-26 Mar. On 27 Mar-06 Apr, a chance for M-class flares is once again likely as Region 3599 returns to the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled on 11-12 Mar due to CH HSS activity and unsettled to active levels on 13 Mar due to possible influence from the 10 Mar CME. Unsettled levels are likely again on 28-29 Mar and 03-05 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 2 months

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Mar 04 0255 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 February - 03 March 2024

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 28 Feb as Region 3590 (N18, L=223, class/area=Fkc/1450 on 25 Feb) produced a long-duration M1.5 (R1-Minor) flare at 28/1854 UTC. A subsequent CME associated with the flare was analyzed and the model results suggested the ejecta was off the Sun-Earth line. A filament eruption, centered near S11E30, was observed starting around 28/0900 UTC. It produced Type II radio sweep along with a C5.1/Sf flare at 28/0909 UTC. A subsequent CME signature in SOHO/LASCO C2. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested arrival late on 03 Mar. The remaining 11 active regions on the visible disk were either quiet or produced only C-class X-ray activity.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. A period of sustained southward Bz, which reached -7 nT, was observed for a few hours on late on 26 Feb and into 27 Feb. The geomagnetic field responded with an isolated period of G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels. As the solar wind returned to nominal conditions, quiet to unsettled levels followed through 02 Mar. The arrival of a coronal mass ejection that left the Sun on 28 Feb was observed just before midday on 03 Mar. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 19 nT and the Bz component was oriented far southward (down to -18 nT). Solar wind speeds remained relatively low with speeds averaging near 350 km/s. The geomagetic field response reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels during the 03/1800-2100 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 March - 30 March 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active levels are expected on 04 Mar in response to waning influence from a CME that left the Sun on 28 Feb. Unsettled conditions are likely on 10-11 Mar and 28 Mar due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 2 months

Photo

Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Feb 26 0223 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 - 25 February 2024

Solar activity reached high levels on 21 and 22 Feb and moderate levels on 23-25 Feb. The strongest of these events was an X6.3 (R3-Strong) flare at 22/2234 UTC, the strongest so far of the current solar cycle, from Region 3590 (N18, L=223, class/area=Fkc/1450 on 25 Feb), the largest region of the solar cycle so far. The region was responsible for two of other X-class flares, an X1.2 at 21/2307 UTC and an X1.7/2b at 22/0632 UTC, as well as 10 M-class (R1-Minor) flares. Despite the pronounced increase in flare activity, no Earth-directed CMEs were associated with the events from the Region. A Type II radio sweep on 21 Feb as well as a Type II and IV radio sweep on 22 Feb were both associated with events that were off the Sun-Earth line. While there were 13 other numbered active regions on the visible disk this week, they were either quiet or only produced C-class X-ray events.

Other activity included a filament eruption in the NW quadrant beginning around 21/1500 UTC. Analysis and modeling suggested a glancing blow would be possible around 25 Feb.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet through 23 Feb, with a single isolated period of unsettled observed late on 20 Feb due weak transient influence. Late on 24 Feb, the arrival of a CME from the filament eruption on 21 Feb was observed. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled conditions that would persist through 25 Feb.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 February - 23 March 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 02 Mar, when Region 3590 (N18, L=223, class/area=Fkc/1450 on 25 Feb) rotates off the visible disk. While flare potential will likely decrease substantially from 02 Mar through the end of the period, a chance for M-class activity will remain due to multiple significant regions on the far side of the Sun due to rotate back onto the visible disk.

There is a slight chance for proton events (S1-Minor) at geosynchronous orbit through 02 Mar due to the flare potential of Region 3590.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 26-28 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to mostly quiet.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 2 months

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Feb 19 0216 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 February 2024

Solar activity reached high levels on 12 and 16 Feb, and moderate levels on 14-15 Feb. The largest event of the period was an X2.5/1n flare at 16/0653 UTC from Region 3576 (S16, L=060, class/area=Fkc/660 on 14 Feb). Region 3576 was the largest and most active sunspot region of the period, and in addition to the X-flare, produced eight M-class flares throughout the week. Region 3582 (N06, L=035, class/area=Dai/240 on 13 Feb) produced an isolated M1 flare at 14/0310 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed this period.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S2 (Moderate) levels on 12-13 Feb, and S1 levels on 14 Feb, following a C6.9 flare at 12/0554 UTC from Region 3576. A peak flux of 118 pfu was observed at 13/0615 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated above background levels over 15-18 Feb, but remained below event thresholds.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the week.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 12 Feb. Active levels were observed on 13 Feb, and unsettled levels were observed on 14 Feb, due to the arrival of multiple CMEs from 10-11 Feb. Quiet conditions were observed over 15-17 Feb, and quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 18 Feb.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 February - 16 March 2024

Solar activity is expected to be low with a varying chance for M-class flare activity throughout the period. Old Region 3575 (S37, L=177), which produced M-class flares last rotation and multiple CMEs during its transit of the far-side, is expected to return to the visible disk on 20 Feb.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet throughout the outlook period. Unsettled conditions are likely on 19-20 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 16 Feb, and again on 26-27 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 2 months

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Feb 12 0224 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 February 2024

Solar activity ranged from moderate levels to very high levels this period. In total, one X-class flare and 18 M-class flares and were observed. The largest event was an X3.3 flare at 09/1314 UTC from Region 3575 (S36, L=177, class/area=Dkc/270 on 05 Feb), which was beyond the SW limb at the time of the event. Region 3576 (S16, L=057, class/area=Fkc/740 on 11 Feb) was the largest and most active region this week and produced the bulk of the M-class flare activity; most notable was an M9.0 flare at 10/2307 UTC which produced an Earth-directed CME expected to arrive late on 12 Feb/early on 13 Feb. Other notable activity included a filament eruption centered near S37W02 at 08/2000 UTC which resulted in an Earth-directed CME expected to arrive on 12 Feb.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) levels following the X3.3 flare at 09/1314 UTC. The solar radiation storm began at 09/1530 UTC, reached a peak flux of 187 pfu at 09/2355 UTC, and decreased below event threshold at 11/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux persisted just below event thresholds after 11/1805 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels throughout the week.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet and unsettled on 05-06 Feb due to a combination of positive polarity CH HSS influences and the arrival of a CME from 01 Feb. Quiet conditions were observed over 07-08 Feb. Quiet and unsettled levels were observed on 09 Feb with the arrival of a CME from 06 Feb late in the day. Quiet conditions were observed on 10 Feb. Quiet to active conditions were observed on 11 Feb due to the arrival of a shock associated with the 09/1314 UTC X3.3 flare. The interplanetary shock was observed in solar wind data at 11/0121 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 350 km/s to 439 km/s, eventually reaching 634 km/s by 11/1410 UTC. Total field increased from 4 nT to 19 nT initially, while the Bz component indicated a mostly negative trend to a low of -15 nT. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at Earth with a 40 nT deviation (Boulder Magnetometer) at 11/0211 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 February - 09 March 2024

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the period with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 15-17 Feb, with normal to moderate levels expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 12-14 Feb, and G2 (Moderate) levels on 13 Feb, due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs from 08 and 10 Feb. Quiet and unsettled conditions are expected on 26-27 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet levels are expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 2 months

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Feb 05 0250 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 January - 04 February 2024

Solar activity was at low to high levels this period. High levels were observed on 29 Jan when Region 3559 (N27, L=288, class/area Fki/520 on 23 Jan) produced an M6.8/Sf at 29/0438 UTC with an associated Type II Sweep (512 km/s) and a 2,700 sfu tenflare. Assocated with this event was a partial-halo CME that was determined to pass ahead of Earth. Low activity levels were observed on 30-31 Jan and 01 Feb. On 01 Feb, Region 3773 (N23, L=158, class/area Cso/040 on 02 Feb) produced a long-duration C3.0 flare at 01/0743 UTC was an associated CME that was determined to produce a glacing blow at Earth late on 04 Feb to early on 05 Feb.

Moderate levels were observed on 02 Feb when Region 3771 (S17, L=104, class/area Cso/130 on 04 Feb) produced an M1.1 flare at 02/0301 UTC with an associated Type II sweep (1,444 km/s). 03 Feb experienced low levels. High levels were observed on 04 Feb when Regions 3576 (S16, L=055, class/area Ekc/700 on 04 Feb) produced 6 M-class flares and Region 3559 produced a lone M-class flare. The largest of these flares was an M2.7 at 04/2234 UTC produced by 3576.

A 10 Mev proton event was observed at geosynchronous orbit on 29-30 Jan due to the M6.8/Sf flare from Region 3559. The event began at 29/0615 UTC, peaked at 137 pfu at 29/1805 UTC and ended at 30/0425 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet through the period. Isolated unsettled levels were observed on 29 and 30 Jan and again late on 04 Feb.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 February - 02 March 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on 05-16 Feb due primarily to the flare history and potential of Region 3776 and the return of old Region 3559. Low levels are expected on 17-23 Feb. An increased chance for moderate levels are possible on 24-29 Feb and 01-02 Mar as old Regions 3359 and 3776 rotate back onto the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at low to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active to G1 (minor) levels on 05 Feb due to combined CME and positive polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled levels are expected on 06 Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 07-25 Feb and 28-29 Feb and 01-02 Mar. Unsettled levels are expected on 26-27 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 3 months

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Jan 29 0253 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 January 2024

Solar activity was at low to high levels this period. High levels were observed on 22 January with seven R1 (minor) flares observed from Regions 3559 (N27, L=288, class/area Fki/520 on 23 Jan) and 3561 (S17, L=327, class/area Dac/220 on 23 Jan). The largest of these flares was an M3.4 from Region 3461 at 22/2121 UTC. On 23 January, nine R1 (minor) and one R2 (moderate) flares were observed from Regions 3559 and 3561. The largest flare was an R2 (moderate) M5.1 from region 3559 at 23/0331 UTC. Moderate levels were observed on 24 January with four R1 (minor) flares observed, the largest an M2.6 from Region 3561 at 24/0140 UTC. Low levels were observed on 25-28 January. A Type II radio sweep, with a speed of 648 km/s, was observed at 28/0228 UTC. Location of this was suspected to be from a region behind the ENE limb.

No 10 MeV proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. An enhancement of 7.14 pfu was observed at 22/1655 UTC, most likely from R1 (minor) flare activity from Region 3559.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels through the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled and active periods due to weak CME activity on 22-24 Jan and initial influence from a negative polarity CH HSS late on 28 Jan.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 January - 24 February 2024

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels on 29-31 Jan due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3559. Low levels are expected on 01-11 Feb. An increased chance for moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels is possible on 12-24 Feb as Region 3559 rotates back onto the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 01-03 Feb due to CH HSS influence. Low to moderate levels are expected from 28-31 Jan and 04-24 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to isolated active periods on 29-31 Jan and 05-06 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 01-04 and 07 -24 Feb.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 3 months

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Jan 22 0515 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 - 21 January 2024

Solar activity was at low levels throughout. The largest flare was a C6.7 at 21/1935 UTC from Region 3561. Moderate development occurred in Region 3561 beginning on 21 Jan, however the spot group maintains a simple beta magnetic configuration. Region 3559 (N27, L=289, class/area Fkc/300 on 21 Jan) exhibited rapid growth and development since 20 Jan and is now classified as an Fkc spot group with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics.

Other activity included several filament eruptions. The first was a complex filament eruption centered near S15E22 that began around 20/0848 UTC. The subsequent CMEs were first visible at 20/0912 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. The CME appeared to have three fronts; to the east, southeast, and south-southwest. Modeling indicated a CME passage reaching Earth mid to late on 22 Jan. Two other filament eruptions occurred with a potential for a glancing blow. The first occurred at 21/0000 UTC centered near N23E40. An associated CME was observed off the ENE limb at 21/0024 UTC. The second was a CME off the SE limb at 21/1636 UTC, possibly associated with a filament eruption near S30E50. Initial modelling indicated the potential for a glancing blow early on 24 Jan, however analysis is still in progress.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed and temperature values were not accurate through late on 16 Jan due to known instrument limitations during low densities. Estimates of solar wind speed were likely in the upper 400 km/s range. Solar wind speed declined to nominal levels on 17 Jan followed by a brief increase to 490 km/s on 19 Jan. Total field ranged from 2 nT to 9 nT. Isolated unsettled periods were observed on 16, 19, and 21 Jan.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 January - 17 February 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels on 22-29 Jan due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3559. Low levels with a chance for M-class flares is expected on 30 Jan-10 Feb. An increased chance for moderate levels is possible once again on 11-17 Feb as Region 3559 rotates back onto the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. A minor enhancement below S1 (Minor) threshold is in progress and likely to continue until the arrival of the 20 Jan CME.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 24-27 Jan due to CME influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels on 22-23 Jan due to the arrival of the 20 Jan CME. Unsettled to active conditions are likely on 24 Jan with the potential glancing blow from the 21 Jan CMEs. Unsettled levels are expected on 29-31 Jan and again on 17 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 3 months

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Jan 15 0608 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 January 2024

Solar activity was at low levels on 08-09 Jan, reached moderate levels on 10-12 Jan, and returned back to low levels on 13-14 Jan. Multiple M1 flares (R1/Minor) occurred on 10-12 Jan from Regions 3538 (N20, L=176, class/area Cai/080 on 09 Jan), 3539 (N10, L=139, class/area Dai/230 on 11 Jan), and 3547 (N19, L=064, class/area Cso/050 on 12 Jan). Two CMEs were modelled over the period from 09-10 Jan with potential for grazing blows. The first was an approximate 50 degree filament eruption centered near S42E43 that began after 09/1400 UTC. An associated CME was observed off the SE limb beginning at 09/1536 UTC. Modelling of the event showed a potential grazing late on 13 Jan. The second event was associated with a C6.5 flare at 10/1907 UTC from Region 3536 (N06, L=151, class/area Eko/250 on 03 Jan). A subsequent CME was observed off the W limb at 10/1924 UTC. Modelling indicated the potential for a grazing late on 14 Jan.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period on 09 Jan. Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels throughout with slightly increased total field measurements between 08/1650-11/0100 UTC and between 14/0315-14/2100 UTC. Solar wind speed showed an increase from 300 km/s to near 470 km/s between 08/0000-11/2200 UTC. Afterward, speed, temperature, and density values appeared to be suspect due to low densities in the solar wind. A comparison with the University of Maryland SOHO/CELIAS/MTOF/PM appeared to show a drop in solar wind speed starting late on 11 Jan.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 January - 10 February 2024

Solar activity is expected to be primarily at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares on 15 Jan-10 Feb.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 15 Jan-10 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods on 16-18 Jan and again on 28-30 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 3 months

Photo

Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Jan 08 0220 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 January 2024

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Moderate activity (R1/Minor) was observed from Region 3536 (N06, L=151, class/area Eko/250 on 03 Jan) on 01, 02 and 04 Jan. The largest of these M flares was an M4.7 observed at 01/1225 UTC. This region also produced a total of 35 C-class flares. Region 3538 (N21, L=175, class/area Dai/070 on 05 Jan) produced a total of 17 C-class flares, the largest a C7.1/1n at 06/1527 UTC. C-class activity was also produced by Regions 3534 (S13, L=225, class/area Dao/150 on 30 Dec), 3535 (S05, L=285, class/area Bxo/010 on 28 Dec), 3537 (N18, L=153, class/area Dsi/120 on 05 Jan) and 3540 (S18, L=095, class/area Dki/350 on 06 Jan).

Numerous CME signatures were detected during the period, but none were determined to have an Earth-directed component.

The 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit was above threshold during this period. The event began at 03/2005 UTC, reached a maximum of 20 pfu at 04/0835 UTC and ended at 04/2215 UTC. This event was related to the X-5 event observed from Region 3536 on 31 Dec 2023.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to isolated active levels on 01-03 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS influence and weak CME influence the last half of 03 Jan. Mostly quiet levels were observed on 04-07 Jan. The solar wind field was at slightly enhanced levels on 01-03 Jan. During this period, total field readings peaked at 12 nT, the Bz component varied between +/-11 nT and wind speeds reached maximum speeds of near 500 km/s. From 04-07 Jan, wind parameters were at mostly background levels. The phi orientation was in a mostly negative orientation through about 07/1800 UTC when the field oriented into a mostly positive direction.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 January - 03 February 2024

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong) flares from 08-24 Jan, 26-31 Jan and 01-03 Feb. Low activity is expected on 25 Jan.

A slight chance for proton events exists at geosynchronous orbit through the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 09-12 Jan. Low to moderate levels are expected on 08 Jan, 13-31 Jan and 01-03 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled periods on 08-09 Jan and 28-30 Jan due to geoeffective CH HSS flow. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

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nw7us · 4 months

Photo

Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2024 Jan 01 0215 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 - 31 December 2023

Solar activity was at low levels on 25-30 Dec with numerous C-class flares from Regions 3528 (N08, L=027, class/area Dai/200 on 23 Dec), 3529 (S19, L=345, class/area Dko/450 on 20 Dec), 3530 (N08, L=323, class/area Dao/180 on 20 Dec), 3533 (N14, L=305, class/area Dao/170 on 29 Dec), 3534 (S13, L=225, class/area Dao/150 on 30 Dec) and 3536 (N05, L=152, class/area Hax/080 on 31 Dec). Activity increased to strong levels (R3-strong) when new Region 3536 produced an X5.0 flare at 31/2155 UTC. This flare also produced complex radio burst signatures reported across discrete frequencies, including a 10 cm radio Burst of 3,100 sfu at 31/2143 UTC and a Type IV Sweep signature at 31/2142 UTC. In addition to the X-flare, Region 3536 produced an M1.0 flare at 31/1912 UTC.

Numerous CME signatures, mostly from the NW and SE limbs, were detected during the period, but none were determined to have an Earth-directed component.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at slightly elevated levels to 2 pfu after 31/2310 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels the entire period. Total field strength ranged between 4-12 nT and Bz varied between +/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds peaked at near 500 km/s early on 27 Dec and declined to about 290 km/s early on 31 Dec. The phi angle was mostly in a positive orientation from 25 Dec to midday on 29 Dec. Orientation switched to a more negative angle from midday on 29 Dec through 31 Dec.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 January - 27 January 2024

Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares likely, and a chance for X-class (R3/Strong) flares, over 01-14 Jan, particularly from new Region 3536. From 15-27 Jan, solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate).

There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed the 10 pfu event threshold on 01 Jan, and a slight chance to reach 10 pfu on 02-15 Jan. No proton events are expected from 16-27 Jan.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 03-06 and 09-12 Jan due to multiple, anticipated CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active conditions on 01-02 Jan, with quiet to unsettled levels expected on 03-04, 08-10 and 27 Jan, due to CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

https://Twitter.com/NW7US

https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

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nw7us · 4 months

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Dec 18 1406 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 - 17 December 2023

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Of the 19 numbered active regions that were observed on the visible disk this week, Region 3514 (N05, L=141, class/area=Ekc/470 on 14 Dec) was the primarily responsible for the most significant activity. The region produced an X2.8 flare (R3-Strong) at 14/1702 UTC, the strongest since Sep 2017. Associated with the event were Type II (est. 2118 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, a radio burst values with a Castelli-U profile, a Tenflare, and extremely high radio burst fluxes reported by the USAF RSTN observatories. Subsequent coronagraph imagery contained a CME signature with a halo shock and ejecta that was primarily headed towards the SW. This ejecta was modeled alongside other CME-producing events, an M5.8 flare (R2 - Moderate) at 14/0744 UTC, an M2.3 flare (R1 - Minor) at 14/1348 UTC and double peak M6.9 flare at 15/0734 UTC. The resulting WSA-Enlil output suggested anticipated CME influence for late on 16 Dec and through 17 Dec.

Other activity of note included coronal dimming on late on 11 Dec and 12 Dec from the vicinity of Region 3514. The X-ray response from these events were below the R1 event threshold but signatures in coronagraph imagery were identified following the events. Modeling and analysis of these events suggested CME influence likely around 14-15 Dec.

With high levels observed on 14-15 Dec, and moderate levels observed on 17 Dec (all from Region 3514), the remainder of the summary period was at low solar activity levels. Other CME activity observed in coronagraph imagery was determined to not be along the Sun-Earth line.

The GOES-16 greater than 10 MeV proton flux briefly exceeded the S1 (Minor) threshold at the very end of the 15 Dec UT day. Flux levels reached a peak of 13.9pfu shortly after at 16/0015 UTC. The proton enhancement was thought to be produced by the combined contribution of the CMEs associated with the X2.8 flare at 14/1702 UTC and the M6.9 flare at 15/0734 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 11-12 Dec. Due to an increase in geomagnetic activity, electron flux levels remained at normal to moderate levels from 13-17 Dec.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels. Quiet levels were observed over 11 Dec. An increase to active levels was observed after a brief period of southward Bz reached -12 nT. This was likely caused by a filament eruption on the Sun over 08 Dec. Quiet to unsettled conditions on 13 Dec increased to active levels again on 14 Dec (southward Bz reached ~-11 nT). On 15 Dec, only quiet to unsettled conditions followed the arrival of a CME associated with activity on the Sun over 11-12 Dec. An increase to active conditions was observed on 16 Dec when solar wind speeds increased to above 500 km/s. Activity would increase to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels over 17 Dec as CME influence from activity on the Sun over 14-15 Dec passed by Earth. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak 17 nT and Bz reached as far south -14 nT as the CME passed. Solar wind speeds increased to roughly 550 km/s before decreasing to below 500 km/s by the end of the 17 Dec UT day.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 December - 13 January 2024

Solar activity is expected to be low levels, with a chance for moderate activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs on 20-22 Dec, 03-05 Jan, and 08-10 Jan. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm on 18 Dec due to waning CME influence. Active levels are likely on 19 Dec as solar wind influence is anticipated to transition to a CH HSS. Unsettled levels due to recurrent CH HSSs are also likely on 20-21 Dec, 23 Dec, 30 Dec-02 Jan, and 08-10 Jan. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

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Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

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