Hey American voters! 🇺🇸
🚨 It’s time to start worrying about the 2022 and 2024 elections. 🚨
(Yeah. We really gotta do this. It's... not looking great.)
Long story short:
Republicans have been working hard since the 2020 election to enact voter suppression laws, overturn election results, and set themselves up to steal the 2024 presidential election if necessary.
You’ve probably heard about the Georgia voter suppression law. But did you know that “Stop the Steal” conspiracy theorist Republicans are running to be election officials like Secretary of State in several swing states, setting themselves up to overturn future elections? They are dismantling democracy before our eyes.
So what’s the worst case scenario?
...Well, let’s start with the realistic scenario.
Republicans are likely to take back the House in 2022. They are possibly capable of doing it through gerrymandering alone. Is it possible for Democrats to keep the House? Yes, but it will take a huge effort.
Republicans could also win back the Senate since it's currently 50-50 and Democrats only have a narrow majority because we won the presidency.
Even if Republicans only win back the House, the Biden administration would legislatively accomplish very little from 2022-2024. Republicans would have the power to impeach Biden for no reason and cause another constitutional crisis, enable gerrymandering and voter suppression laws, and block any Democratic priorities from becoming law (gun control, climate change, and healthcare are just a few things that would be off the table entirely).
Then comes 2024.
Donald Trump is the most likely Republican candidate to run and win in 2024. In a recent poll (May 2021), 66% of Republicans indicated that they would vote for Trump again.
Yes, Trump can run even if he’s indicted on criminal charges. He can run even if he’s in prison!
Remember, although Biden won by 7 million votes, it was really a difference of about 44,000 votes in three swing states that prevented Trump from winning the Electoral College and becoming president again. That is a frighteningly small margin.
Even if the candidate isn’t Trump, this is still going to be a close election. 85% of Republicans say they would vote for a Trump-aligned candidate (same poll as above).
If Republicans win back or maintain control of Congress in 2024, this could set up an even more dangerous scenario:
The House has the power to choose the president if Congress does not award 270 electoral votes to either candidate.
How could that happen? Well, those "Stop the Steal" Republican election officials in swing states could refuse to certify the election, claiming fraud, and a close election could end up with neither candidate getting enough electoral votes. House Republicans could literally choose the next president without any input from voters and effectively end American democracy as we know it.
Because you know that Republicans will never let go of that power once they have it.
This is not far-fetched.
This is a realistic, highly likely scenario that will happen if we don’t do something to prevent it. Journalists and election experts are trying to sound the alarm, and we should listen:
New York Times - How Republicans Could Steal the 2024 Election
Washington Post - American democracy is in even worse shape than you think
Pod Save America - Stop the 2024 Steal (Discussion at 29:00)
LA Times - Trump’s allies are prepping to steal 2024 election
The only way to prevent this from becoming reality is to fight like hell against it. And I know we just did that in 2018 and 2020. But this fight isn't over until we restore and protect our democracy.
This isn’t about how much you like Biden & Harris, or even if you’re a Democrat in general. It’s about saving democracy in America.
What can we do about it?
Unfortunately, it’s going to be an uphill battle. But if we all engage in this fight, then we can make a difference.
TLDR, we need to raise awareness about the threat to democracy, encourage Democrats to end the filibuster and pass H.R.1 immediately, and organize, organize, organize to get voters back out there in 2022 and 2024.
Specific ways to help & additional resources below the cut.
How to help:
*High priority: Call your Democratic Senator(s) right now and tell them to pass H.R.1, the For the People Act, with urgency.
*High priority: Call your Democratic Senator(s) right now and tell them that you are strongly in favor of ending the filibuster (Especially if your Senator is Manchin or Sinema.)
Call your Democratic Senator(s) and tell them to vote for the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.
Call your Republican Senator(s) and tell them you are in favor of all of the above, especially if you live in a swing state.
*High priority: Find out who is running for state legislature and other positions that have control over elections, such as Secretary of State. Donate or volunteer for their campaigns. Spread the word amongst your family and friends and make sure they know who to vote for and the date of the election.
If no one is running against the Republican, consider running! I’m not joking. Or if you know someone who is qualified and/or interested in running, encourage them to do so.
*High priority: Same as on the state level: Find out who is running and support the person who is supporting democracy. Local election officials can have a huge impact, especially in swing states and counties. Spread the word about this candidate, the election date, registering to vote, where to vote, etc.
Again, if no one is running, consider running! Incumbents often stay in power because they are unchallenged. And a local position is a great way to get involved in politics and help your community.
Additional ways to help:
Make sure you are registered to vote.
Check in with 3 friends/family members and help them register to vote if they are not already.
Send reminders to friends/family to vote on Election Day - not just in November, but for special elections, local elections, etc.
Volunteer with a group specifically working to help progressives win elections: SwingLeft, EMILY’s List, etc.
Donate to the candidates you support early and often! One of the reasons Democratic House candidates struggled in 2020 was that a lot of money came in at the last minute. Donating early and/or on a monthly basis ensures that they have the funds to run a long, successful campaign.
More Info & Resources:
Read: Washington Post - American democracy is in even worse shape than you think
Excerpt/TLDR: "The radicalization of the Republican Party has outpaced what even most critical observers imagined,” Georgetown University historian Thomas Zimmer told me. “We need to grapple with what that should mean for our expectations going forward and start thinking about real worst-case scenarios." - Perry Bacon Jr.
Read: New York Times - How Republicans Could Steal the 2024 Election
“It occurred to me,” [Erica Newland, counsel for Protect Democracy] told her colleagues then, “as I dug into the rules and watched what happened, that if the current Republican Party controls both Houses of Congress on Jan. 6, 2025, there’s no way if a Democrat is legitimately elected they will get certified as the president-elect.”
Listen: Pod Save America - Stop the 2024 Steal (29:00-36:27 covers the bulk of it, and they go on for about another 10 minutes after that)
Excerpt: "If you just watch what's happening... it is a very clear indication of a minority party that knows it has no path to majority status rigging elections at every level to set the stage for minority rule in this country. (...) People are not alarmed enough about [this]. The great asymmetry in American politics is that Republicans view power as an end in itself, and Democrats view power as a means to an end. Republicans are using the power they have to put in place laws that allow them to hold onto political power. (...) We need to raise the alarm. There are disturbing signs of complacency in our party." - Dan Pfeiffer
Register or check voter registration: Vote.org
Support H.R.1: VoteSaveAmerica.com/ForThePeople
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