#Housel Bay
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intended for: luca ( @pipeddreams )
You have 1 new Voice Message from Mama Bear
Loretta had left the house is such a hurry after her fight with Leon that she'd left with nothing but what was in her purse. She imagined she'd have some mints, lose change and a lipstick she really liked, for emergencies. She didn't even think she had her phone for most of the drive, the single mother was making her way through city after city until she could see the signs to Housel Bay Beach. It had been one of her favourite places to visit in her younger years and had been her secret hideaway every now and then when she needed a break from life. Pulling into a parking lot in town, she fishes around her bag for change to feed the parking meter, when she found her phone. Leon had been trying to reach her, but she ignored those notifications. Opening up her texts with Luca, she hovered her finger over the microphone icon and recorded a message for her darling son.
"Hi sweetheart -- it's your Mom." There was a pause as she huffed at herself, realizing he already knew who it was. "Listen--- Honey... I.." She started but didn't know how to find the words. "Damnit----" Her voice was catching her throat again and she knew she was in no position to relive this morning all over again. "Your father and I got into a fight this morning. I don't think it's one that we're going to be able to work through this time, Luca. --- I'm really sorry bub." She hated that Luca's whole life she'd been apologizing for his father missing big moments in his life or not being the man he wanted him to be. It made her heart ache all over again to be apologizing for him for this. "I need a little break and I can't be at the house-- I can't go back there right now. I just want you to know that I'm safe but I'm taking a little Mom time right now. I love you so so much, and I'll call you as soon as I get home okay?" she paused and took a deep breath, still not sure how to end this nightmare of a voice note. "I mean it Luca--- Never for a second thing you're not the most important thing someones life. Because you are the best thing that ever happened to me and no one can ever take that from me. Not even him. Thank you for being the best son, I love you to the moon and back kiddo. Okay, okay, I really need to go before I cry over how much I love you. I'll see you real soon, be good! Bye."
As soon as she let go of the button, the voice note sent to her only son. It made her sick to her stomach knowing he had to fight out this way, but it was better coming from her than it would be coming from his father. It wasn't how she wanted to do this, but it was her only choice given her fight or flight instincts had kicked in and didn't stop until she reached the coast. Afraid of the fall out from the voice note and Leon's ignored messages, Loretta turned off her phone and tossed it in the glove box. Until monday when she'd have to face her life again, she didn't want to be reached by anyone.
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TUESDAY, MAY 30, 2023 - LIZARD PENINSULA, CORNWALL, ENGLAND. My day started with a walk down to Lizard Point, the southernmost tip of England. The Point is dominated by Lizard Lighthouse, which has been in continuous operation, except for brief periods of upgrade, since 1751. The view from the Point is dramatic, with its endless view of the English Channel, and the close-up view of the rugged coast.
In the afternoon, we drove to the small village of Breage, where Becky's maternal great-great-great-great-great grandfather, John Davey, was born in 1733. We thought the only way we might find a vestige of the family name would be to visit the churchyard cemetery. We didn't find any relatives, but it was fascinating anyway. Old cemeteries always are.
This evening we had dinner at the Housel Bay Hotel, which has a lovely back garden overlooking the coast, and a charming flower-lined path with a gate that opens on a trail along the cliff-tops. It was a tranquil way to end the day.
And that last photo? Well, when in Rome…
It's been a good day.
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Ramadhan 1444 H : Day 1
Ramadhan pertama sebagai suami istri. Di ramadhan kali ini kami berniat untuk belajar meneladani sahabat sahabat rasulullah selepas subuh. Bismillah semoga istiqomah.
Di hari pertama ramadhan kami meneladani Abdurrahman ibn ‘Auf, sahabat Rasulullah yang dermawan. Beliau adalah pedagang sukses yang selalu mendapatkan untung yang melimpah. Abdurrahman adalah satu dari delapan orang yang paling awal masuk islam. Beliau merupakan sahabat yang ikut hijrah Rasulullah ke Habasyah, kemudian kembali ke Mekah, kemudian hijrah lagi ke Habasyah dan yang terakhir hijrah ke Madinah. Ketika di Madinah, Rasulullah mempersaudarakan Abdurrahman ibn ‘Auf dengan Sa’ad ibn Rabi’. Setiap orang anshar di Madinah rela berbagi segala miliknya dengan sahabat Muhajirin. Sa’ad ibn Rabi’ juga merupakan orang yang kaya raya. Sa’ad menawarkan separuh hartanya untuk Abdurrahman. Namun Abdurrahman tidak langsung mengiyakan, justru meminta Sa’ad untuk menunjukkan dimana letak pasar. Singkat cerita, Sa’ad kemudian menunjukan dimana pasar dan Abdurrahman kembali berdagang dan kembali menjadi orang yang kaya raya.
Suatu hari, beliau menjual tanah seharga 1000 dinar lalu membagikan seluruh dinar itu kepada Bani Zuhrah keluarganya, lalu kepada Ummahatul Mukminin dan kaum muslimin yang melarat. Pada kesempatan lain ia memberikan 500 kuda untuk pasukan kaum muslimin. Pada hari lain juga ia berikan 1500 unta. Ketika hendak wafat, beliau mewasiatkan 500.000 dinar untuk perjuangan di jalan Allah dan 400 dinar untuk setiap orang yang terlibat dalam perang Badar dan masih hidup. Bahkan, Utsman ibn Affan yang tergolong orang kaya raya mendapat bagian wasiat ini. Karena kedermawanan dan kemurahannya, ada ungkapan yang mengatakan, “Seluruh penduduk Madinah berserikat dalam harta kekayaan Abdurrahman. Sepertiga ia pinjamkan kepada mereka, sepertiga ia gunakan untuk membayar hutang mereka, dan sepertiga ia berikan suka rela kepada mereka”. Ibaratnya seluruh penduduk Madinah ikut kecipratan kekayaannya Abdurrahman.
Dengan hartanya itu, Abdurrahman banyak bersedekah untuk orang orang di sekitarnya. Harta itu tidak membuat Abdurrahman menjadi sombong dan makin gila harta. Justru semakin membuatnya khawatir karena banyaknya harta yang dimiliki. Karena nanti di akhirat setiap harta akan dihisab dan semakin banyak harta maka hisabnya akan semakin lama. Maka beliau semakin banyak bersedekah untuk mengurangi hartanya, namun semakin banyak bersedekah tidak membuat Abdurrahman miskin justru semakin kaya.
Dari kisah Abdurrahman ibn ‘Auf kami belajar banyak hal diantaranya :
1. Ikhtiar dan tawakkal. Meskipun Ibn Auf ditawari kekayaan oleh Sa’ad ibn Rabi’ beliau memilih untuk berusaha sendiri dengan berdagang.
2. Harta yang sesungguhnya kita miliki adalah yang kita sedekahkan. Jadi belajar untuk sedekah berapapun nominalnya dan meskipun dalam keadaan sulit.
3. Harta yang halal akan membuat satu keluarga menjadi berkah. Dan lebih baik lagi jika harta yang kita miliki berdampak ke masyarakat sekitar. Sehingga bisa menolong orang yang kurang mampu.
4. Abdurrahman ibn ‘Auf sangat rendah hati dan bisa menjadi tuan bagi hartanya. Meskipun kaya raya tapi ya terlihat seperti orang pada umumnya, tidak menunjukkan kekayaannya. Beliau tidak dikenal jika ada orang asing yang duduk bersamanya dan ketika sakaratul maut beliau ditawarkan oleh Ummul Mukminin Aisyah untuk dimakamkan disamping Rasulullah tapi beliau menolaknya karena merasa tidak pantas.
Terkadang kita ingin menunjukkan apa apa yang kita miliki. Misal mobil mewah, pakaian mewah, tas branded, hp terbaru, dsb. Padahal rich tidak sama dengan wealth. Morgan Housel dalam bukunya The Psychology of Money (2020) membagi dengan tegas perbedaan di antara orang kaya. Dalam buku tersebut, ia memakai konsep rich dan wealth.
Secara garis besar, perbedaan dari kedua konsep tersebut adalah bagaimana manusia mampu melakukan manajemen kekayaan. Orang yang hidup dalam kategori wealth akan dapat mengalokasikan kekayaan dengan sangat baik dalam jangka waktu yang panjang, serta ia tidak akan mudah untuk kehilangan akumulasi kekayaan tersebut. Namun hal yang sebaliknya dengan orang yang termasuk dalam kategori rich.
Menurut kami wealth juga kekayaan jiwa, bijak dalam mengelola harta, dan bisa menjadi tuan bagi hartanya. Meskipun kita punya banyak harta, tapi penampilan tetap sewajarnya, tidak membeli barang barang yang tidak perlu, tidak memamerkan apa yang dimiliki, tidak membuat jiwa kita makin rakus harta dan menumpuk harta. Tapi membuat jiwa kita tetap tenang dan membelanjakan harta secukupnya untuk diri sendiri dan perbanyak sedekah. sedekah juga manajemen harta untuk jangka panjang yaitu akhirat.
5. Menurut kami orang orang yang bestari itu orang orang yang luas pengetahuannya, diajak ngobrol apa aja nyambung. Rendah hati dan bergaul sama siapa saja termasuk masyarakat kecil meskipun misal dirinya adalah orang yang punya jabatan. Orang yang bisa bermanfaat buat keluarga dan masyarakat sekitar sukur sukur berdampak buat masyarakat luas. Tidak pamer apa yang dimiliki termasuk pamer lagi makan apa dimana, pergi kamana, dan harta apa yang dipunya.
Don’t merely show what you eat, where you go, things you own. Show your kindess, spread it. Show your work, be proud of them Show your ideas, share them, show humanity, show flaws. Kesederhanaan yang sesungguhnya adalah ketika kita bisa memiliki yang kita inginkan, tetapi hanya memilih yang kita butuhkan. Kesederhanaan yang sesungguhnya adalah kesadaran bahwa yang berlebihan itu tidak perlu sama sekali sebab sejatinya kita tidak memiliki apa apa sama sekali. Semua yang kita miliki adalah titipan yang sewaktu waktu bisa diambil.
“Orang-orang yang menafkahkan hartanya di jalan Allah kemudian mereka tidak mengiringi apa yang dinafkahkannya itu dengan menyebut nyebut pemberiannya dan dengan tidak menyakiti (perasaan si penerima), mereka memperoleh pahala di sisi Tuhan mereka. Tidak ada kekhawatiran terhadap mereka dan tidak (pula) mereka bersedih hati.” (Q.S Al Baqarah:262)
Sumber : Khalid, Muhammad.(2016).Biografi 60 Sahabat Rasulullah.Jakarta: Qisthi Press
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Housel Bay and Bass Point, Lizard Peninsula, Cornwall /Kernow
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The Lizard, Cornwall; Housel Bay hotel and gardens; Ploughman's lunch; Cornish Cream Tea; Land's End
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Cornwall Postcard, Housel Bay, The Lizzard, Cliffs, Sea, Rocks, Lighthouse EL7
http://dlvr.it/RKWS00
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Of Free Brains and Effortless Money
In the hospital, the relatives gathered in the waiting room, where a family member lay gravely ill. The doctor came in looking tired and dull.
“I’m afraid I’m the bearer of bad news,” he said as he surveyed the worried faces. “The only hope left for your loved one at this time is a brain transplant.”
“Oh, how risky is the procedure?” a relative asked.
“It’s an experimental procedure, very risky,” the doctor replied, “but it is the only hope for your loved one. Insurance will cover the procedure, but you will have to pay for the BRAIN.”
The family members sat silently as they absorbed the news. After a time, someone asked, “How much will a brain cost?”
The doctor quickly responded, “Rs 20 lac for a male brain, Rs 5 lac for a female brain.”
The moment turned awkward. Some of the men had to ‘try’ to not smile, avoiding eye contact with the women.
A man unable to control his curiosity, finally blurted out the question everyone wanted to ask, “Why is the male brain so much more than a female brain?”
The doctor smiled at the childish innocence and explained to the entire group, “It’s just standard pricing procedure. We have to price the female brains a lot lower because they’ve been used.”
Ouch!
Well, if you are a man reading this, please don’t feel bad about what you just read. This is the reality, and especially when you are an investor in the stock market, and especially when you are trying to make decisions in the midst of a bull market.
We often fail to use our brain, that priceless resource that is given free to each human being at birth…and maybe because it is given free to us.
Earl Nightingale wrote in his book The Strangest Secret…
It’s as though the Creator said, “Here you are. You now have a copy of the creative agent that produced the plays of Shakespeare, bridged San Francisco Bay, and harnessed the energy and fire of the sun. I put it into your keeping for the span of your life. Do with it what you will.”
And we do with our brain what we will, again especially when we are investors in the stock market, and especially when we are trying to make decisions in the midst of a bull market after already having earned large doses of effortless money. Like Newton, who earned and then lost tons of money and his reputation acting as an investor and then speculator in the stock of South Sea Company in the 1720s.
I recently read a tweet from Morgan Housel tweet quoting Jason Zweig saying this…
There is nothing more poisonous to rational behavior than making a boatload of money in a short period of time.
To this, Prof. Sanjay Bakshi tweeted what Warren Buffett wrote in his 2000 letter to shareholders…
The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities—that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future—will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.
Before the Music Stops
During late 1999 through early 2000, near the peak of the dot-com bubble, the legendary George Soros and his hedge-fund team was working on how to prepare for the inevitable sell-off in technology stocks.
The man in charge of Soros’ high profile technology funds was Stanley Druckenmiller – one of the best-performing hedge fund managers of all time, till date – and he was busy warning his team that the sell-off could be near and could be brutal.
As the markets soared further in March 2000, Druckenmiller was quoted as saying, “I don’t like this market. I think we should probably lighten up.” Soros himself would regularly warn his team that tech stocks were a bubble set to burst.
Despite this, when the sell-off finally did begin in mid-March 2000, Soros Fund Management wasn’t ready for it. His funds were still loaded with high-tech and biotech stocks. Just in five days, starting 15th March, Soros’s flagship Quantum Fund saw what had been a 2% year-to-date gain turn into an 11% loss. By the end of April, the Quantum Fund was down 22% since the start of the year, and the smaller Quota Fund was down 32%.
Post that, in April 2000, Soros said at a conference, “Maybe I don’t understand the market. Maybe the music has stopped, but people are still dancing.”
The same month, at another conference, Druckenmiller confessed, “It would have been nice to go out on top, like Michael Jordan. But I overplayed my hand.”
Here is how Druckenmiller summarized his experience of 2000 in an interview late last year (Nov. 2013) –
I bought the top of the tech market in March of 2000 [after quickly making money in the same space in mid-late 1999] in an emotional fit I had because I couldn’t stand the fact that it was going up so much and it violated every rule I learned in 25 years.
I bought the tech market very well in mid-1999 and sold everything out in January and was sitting pretty; and I had two internal managers who were making about 5% a day and I just couldn’t stand it. And I put billions of dollars in within hours of the top. And, boy, did I get killed the next couple months.
Remember “Risk”
Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital, wrote this in his seminal book The Most Important Thing –
In bull markets – usually when things have been going well for a while – people tend to say ‘Risk is my friend. The more risk I take, the greater my return will be. I’d like more risk, please.’
The truth is, risk tolerance is antithetical to successful investing. When people aren’t afraid of risk, they’ll accept risk without being compensated for doing so… and risk compensation will disappear. But only when investors are sufficiently risk-averse will markets offer adequate risk premiums. When worry is in short supply, risky borrowers and questionable schemes will have easy access to capital, and the financial system will become precarious. Too much money will chase the risky and the new, driving up asset prices and driving down prospective returns and safety.
Risk, which Marks and Warren Buffett have often defined as losing significant amounts of money and permanently, often moves in the same direction as valuations.
In other words, risk increases/decreases as valuations rise/fall. At the same time, high valuations imply weak prospective returns, while depressed valuations imply strong prospective returns. Consequently, both Marks and Buffett suggest that risk is lowest precisely when prospective returns are the highest, and risk is highest precisely when prospective returns are the lowest.
Economist and investment strategist Peter Bernstein said –
The riskiest moment is when you are right.
In one of his posts from 2015, Jason Zweig wrote this –
In much of life, doing things right over and over again is a sign of skill; expert musicians, for instance, rarely hit a wrong note. And the skill of one professional musician doesn’t make it harder for the others to be equally expert.
But in the financial markets, where so many investors are highly skilled, their actions cancel each other out as they quickly bid up the prices of any bargains—paradoxically making luck the main factor that distinguishes one investor from another.
And a streak of being right can make anyone forget how important luck is in determining the outcome.
I see a lot of Mr. Rights all around me, including people I thought were sensible and human enough to make mistakes. I see a lot of people (including yours truly) having made large doses of effortless money in recent times. And I see a lot of people often sliding into situations where they don’t want to waste time and effort using their brains to make sensible, intelligent investment decisions…because all they are looking at are happy, effortless, outcomes.
You better use your brain, especially because you used it to earn your savings that you now want to invest, and especially now when we are passing through rapid and frequent bouts of irrationality.
P.S. A British neurophysicist has said that if we would have to approximate electronically an average human brain, it would cost three billion-billion dollars; that’s $3,000,000,000,000,000,000; and that’s 38,000 times the global GDP. You and I are fortunate to own one for free.
Maybe, only when we remember this number that’s put to an average human brain, we may try to sometimes use it more rationally, especially while investing our savings during a bull market, and after having earned large doses of effortless money.
The post Of Free Brains and Effortless Money appeared first on Safal Niveshak.
Of Free Brains and Effortless Money published first on https://mbploans.tumblr.com/
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Of Free Brains and Effortless Money
In the hospital, the relatives gathered in the waiting room, where a family member lay gravely ill. The doctor came in looking tired and dull.
“I’m afraid I’m the bearer of bad news,” he said as he surveyed the worried faces. “The only hope left for your loved one at this time is a brain transplant.”
“Oh, how risky is the procedure?” a relative asked.
“It’s an experimental procedure, very risky,” the doctor replied, “but it is the only hope for your loved one. Insurance will cover the procedure, but you will have to pay for the BRAIN.”
The family members sat silently as they absorbed the news. After a time, someone asked, “How much will a brain cost?”
The doctor quickly responded, “Rs 20 lac for a male brain, Rs 5 lac for a female brain.”
The moment turned awkward. Some of the men had to ‘try’ to not smile, avoiding eye contact with the women.
A man unable to control his curiosity, finally blurted out the question everyone wanted to ask, “Why is the male brain so much more than a female brain?”
The doctor smiled at the childish innocence and explained to the entire group, “It’s just standard pricing procedure. We have to price the female brains a lot lower because they’ve been used.”
Ouch!
Well, if you are a man reading this, please don’t feel bad about what you just read. This is the reality, and especially when you are an investor in the stock market, and especially when you are trying to make decisions in the midst of a bull market.
We often fail to use our brain, that priceless resource that is given free to each human being at birth…and maybe because it is given free to us.
Earl Nightingale wrote in his book The Strangest Secret…
It’s as though the Creator said, “Here you are. You now have a copy of the creative agent that produced the plays of Shakespeare, bridged San Francisco Bay, and harnessed the energy and fire of the sun. I put it into your keeping for the span of your life. Do with it what you will.”
And we do with our brain what we will, again especially when we are investors in the stock market, and especially when we are trying to make decisions in the midst of a bull market after already having earned large doses of effortless money. Like Newton, who earned and then lost tons of money and his reputation acting as an investor and then speculator in the stock of South Sea Company in the 1720s.
I recently read a tweet from Morgan Housel tweet quoting Jason Zweig saying this…
There is nothing more poisonous to rational behavior than making a boatload of money in a short period of time.
To this, Prof. Sanjay Bakshi tweeted what Warren Buffett wrote in his 2000 letter to shareholders…
The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities—that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future—will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.
Before the Music Stops
During late 1999 through early 2000, near the peak of the dot-com bubble, the legendary George Soros and his hedge-fund team was working on how to prepare for the inevitable sell-off in technology stocks.
The man in charge of Soros’ high profile technology funds was Stanley Druckenmiller – one of the best-performing hedge fund managers of all time, till date – and he was busy warning his team that the sell-off could be near and could be brutal.
As the markets soared further in March 2000, Druckenmiller was quoted as saying, “I don’t like this market. I think we should probably lighten up.” Soros himself would regularly warn his team that tech stocks were a bubble set to burst.
Despite this, when the sell-off finally did begin in mid-March 2000, Soros Fund Management wasn’t ready for it. His funds were still loaded with high-tech and biotech stocks. Just in five days, starting 15th March, Soros’s flagship Quantum Fund saw what had been a 2% year-to-date gain turn into an 11% loss. By the end of April, the Quantum Fund was down 22% since the start of the year, and the smaller Quota Fund was down 32%.
Post that, in April 2000, Soros said at a conference, “Maybe I don’t understand the market. Maybe the music has stopped, but people are still dancing.”
The same month, at another conference, Druckenmiller confessed, “It would have been nice to go out on top, like Michael Jordan. But I overplayed my hand.”
Here is how Druckenmiller summarized his experience of 2000 in an interview late last year (Nov. 2013) –
I bought the top of the tech market in March of 2000 [after quickly making money in the same space in mid-late 1999] in an emotional fit I had because I couldn’t stand the fact that it was going up so much and it violated every rule I learned in 25 years.
I bought the tech market very well in mid-1999 and sold everything out in January and was sitting pretty; and I had two internal managers who were making about 5% a day and I just couldn’t stand it. And I put billions of dollars in within hours of the top. And, boy, did I get killed the next couple months.
Remember “Risk”
Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital, wrote this in his seminal book The Most Important Thing –
In bull markets – usually when things have been going well for a while – people tend to say ‘Risk is my friend. The more risk I take, the greater my return will be. I’d like more risk, please.’
The truth is, risk tolerance is antithetical to successful investing. When people aren’t afraid of risk, they’ll accept risk without being compensated for doing so… and risk compensation will disappear. But only when investors are sufficiently risk-averse will markets offer adequate risk premiums. When worry is in short supply, risky borrowers and questionable schemes will have easy access to capital, and the financial system will become precarious. Too much money will chase the risky and the new, driving up asset prices and driving down prospective returns and safety.
Risk, which Marks and Warren Buffett have often defined as losing significant amounts of money and permanently, often moves in the same direction as valuations.
In other words, risk increases/decreases as valuations rise/fall. At the same time, high valuations imply weak prospective returns, while depressed valuations imply strong prospective returns. Consequently, both Marks and Buffett suggest that risk is lowest precisely when prospective returns are the highest, and risk is highest precisely when prospective returns are the lowest.
Economist and investment strategist Peter Bernstein said –
The riskiest moment is when you are right.
In one of his posts from 2015, Jason Zweig wrote this –
In much of life, doing things right over and over again is a sign of skill; expert musicians, for instance, rarely hit a wrong note. And the skill of one professional musician doesn’t make it harder for the others to be equally expert.
But in the financial markets, where so many investors are highly skilled, their actions cancel each other out as they quickly bid up the prices of any bargains—paradoxically making luck the main factor that distinguishes one investor from another.
And a streak of being right can make anyone forget how important luck is in determining the outcome.
I see a lot of Mr. Rights all around me, including people I thought were sensible and human enough to make mistakes. I see a lot of people (including yours truly) having made large doses of effortless money in recent times. And I see a lot of people often sliding into situations where they don’t want to waste time and effort using their brains to make sensible, intelligent investment decisions…because all they are looking at are happy, effortless, outcomes.
You better use your brain, especially because you used it to earn your savings that you now want to invest, and especially now when we are passing through rapid and frequent bouts of irrationality.
P.S. A British neurophysicist has said that if we would have to approximate electronically an average human brain, it would cost three billion-billion dollars; that’s $3,000,000,000,000,000,000; and that’s 38,000 times the global GDP. You and I are fortunate to own one for free.
Maybe, only when we remember this number that’s put to an average human brain, we may try to sometimes use it more rationally, especially while investing our savings during a bull market, and after having earned large doses of effortless money.
The post Of Free Brains and Effortless Money appeared first on Safal Niveshak.
Of Free Brains and Effortless Money published first on http://ift.tt/2ljLF4B
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Picnic spot on The Lizard beside Housel Bay earlier 🦎 ☀️ 🌊 (at Lizard, Cornwall)
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Proper job #beertourism #winepleasures #lizard #Cornwall (en Housel Bay Hotel)
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Weekend Reads: Classic Papers for Lasting Learning
A few weeks ago, Morgan Housel scared Twitter by asking, “How much of what you read today will you care about a year from now?”
Speaking personally, much less than I’d like.
Fortunately, Google Scholar created Classic Papers, a “collection of highly cited papers in their area of research that have stood the test of time.” Enjoyably, it “excludes review articles, introductory articles, editorials, guidelines, and commentaries,” and allows for high-signal interdisciplinary browsing.
I took the news of this week to the exercise, which began with reports that the US military had downed a Syrian jet. On Thursday Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the North Korean government, reportedly warned South Korea against following “psychopath Trump.”
You wonder about these sorts of things. How are investors reacting? In a discussion at the Annual Ben Graham Value Conference IV, hosted by CFA Society New York on Tuesday, investor John Levin observed that in general, “domestic earnings are undervalued and international earnings are overvalued” as a result of these and other tensions.
While wondering about this and flipping through the aforementioned classic papers, I came across Niall Ferguson’s “.” Its final section asserts that World War I came as a “bolt from the blue” for investors, despite plenty of early discounting.
Ferguson’s paper is relevant to the present but is easy to misinterpret. Whenever one refers to World War I in a geopolitical discussion, it’s hard to avoid the notion that the war was inevitable. Such predestined wars — when established powers clash with rising ones — are sometimes called “Thucydides Traps.” However, Arthur Waldron, reviewing Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap by Graham Allison, writes that there is little evidence that they really exist.
Unexamined assumptions are a silent killer of thoughtful analysis, and one of the most common of these is that “developed” and “emerging” markets have important uniform characteristics. In their paper, “The Early Modern Great Divergence: Wages, Prices, and Economic Development in Europe and Asia, 1500–1800,” economists Stephen Broadberry and Bishnupriya Gupta look under the hood of economic development during that time. The connection they draw between high productivity and eventual prosperity is worth noting in the context of contemporary worries about productivity growth. The discussion continues, as Ryan Avent recently summed up.
I thought Stefaan Walgrave and Peter Van Aelst’s article on the contingencies that enable the media to set a political agenda to be particularly interesting. The discussion of the methods used to create truth in this arena is fascinating.
We often feature posts on the role of women in investment management, so I’d be remiss if I didn’t close this section by mentioning Patricia Yancey Martin’s “Practising Gender at Work: Further Thoughts on Reflexivity.” It is an invitation to view gender performance through the same prism that George Soros suggests we view markets: reflexivity.
Further Reading
Is it 2057 or 2035 when computers take over the world? Over at AI Impacts, Katja Grace usefully distills and applies the results from a survey of machine learning specialists about the likely path of machine learning technology. For the record, the last time Enterprising Investor asked about this, 35% of respondents thought artificial intelligence (AI) was impossible. (AI Impacts, Enterprising Investor)
Harry Markopolos, CFA, claims to have uncovered a new fraud, this time in the public sector: The pension of the Massachusetts Bay Transit Authority (MBTA) is $500 million smaller than previously thought. The cause? A mix of “bad investments, fraudulent accounting, and unrealistic actuarial assumptions,” according to Markopolos. (Advisor Perspectives)
Just print this out and refer to it once every six months: “Can China Really Rein in Credit?” Opinions abound — and have long abounded — suggesting it is necessary. But political will and economic self-interest rarely match up. (Bloomberg View)
JP Koning’s discussion of what happened in 1947 to 1949 when policymakers were forking the Indian rupee into Pakistani and Indian flavors is a reminder of what occurs when theoretical experiments in currency are made real. Recent op-eds on the effect of demonetization for farmers make me wonder if digital money is worth all of the physical unease it creates. (Moneyness, The Indian Express)
India and Pakistan have both joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which Xinhua dubbed the “world’s most populous regional cooperative organization and the largest by area.” What is it, exactly? Read the background from the Council on Foreign Relations. (Xinhua, Council on Foreign Relations)
Fun Reads
If you liked this post, don’t forget to subscribe to the Enterprising Investor.
All posts are the opinion of the author. As such, they should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author’s employer.
Image credit: iStockphoto.com/JLGutierrez
Will Ortel
Will Ortel is a researcher and content manager at CFA Institute. He’s worked in investment management since 2006 and joined CFA Institute in 2010.
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from CapitalistHQ http://capitalisthq.blogspot.com/2017/06/weekend-reads-classic-papers-for.html
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Weekend Reads: Classic Papers for Lasting Learning
A few weeks ago, Morgan Housel scared Twitter by asking, “How much of what you read today will you care about a year from now?”
Speaking personally, much less than I’d like.
Fortunately, Google Scholar created Classic Papers, a “collection of highly cited papers in their area of research that have stood the test of time.” Enjoyably, it “excludes review articles, introductory articles, editorials, guidelines, and commentaries,” and allows for high-signal interdisciplinary browsing.
I took the news of this week to the exercise, which began with reports that the US military had downed a Syrian jet. On Thursday Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the North Korean government, reportedly warned South Korea against following “psychopath Trump.”
You wonder about these sorts of things. How are investors reacting? In a discussion at the Annual Ben Graham Value Conference IV, hosted by CFA Society New York on Tuesday, investor John Levin observed that in general, “domestic earnings are undervalued and international earnings are overvalued” as a result of these and other tensions.
While wondering about this and flipping through the aforementioned classic papers, I came across Niall Ferguson’s “.” Its final section asserts that World War I came as a “bolt from the blue” for investors, despite plenty of early discounting.
Ferguson’s paper is relevant to the present but is easy to misinterpret. Whenever one refers to World War I in a geopolitical discussion, it’s hard to avoid the notion that the war was inevitable. Such predestined wars — when established powers clash with rising ones — are sometimes called “Thucydides Traps.” However, Arthur Waldron, reviewing Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap by Graham Allison, writes that there is little evidence that they really exist.
Unexamined assumptions are a silent killer of thoughtful analysis, and one of the most common of these is that “developed” and “emerging” markets have important uniform characteristics. In their paper, “The Early Modern Great Divergence: Wages, Prices, and Economic Development in Europe and Asia, 1500–1800,” economists Stephen Broadberry and Bishnupriya Gupta look under the hood of economic development during that time. The connection they draw between high productivity and eventual prosperity is worth noting in the context of contemporary worries about productivity growth. The discussion continues, as Ryan Avent recently summed up.
I thought Stefaan Walgrave and Peter Van Aelst’s article on the contingencies that enable the media to set a political agenda to be particularly interesting. The discussion of the methods used to create truth in this arena is fascinating.
We often feature posts on the role of women in investment management, so I’d be remiss if I didn’t close this section by mentioning Patricia Yancey Martin’s “Practising Gender at Work: Further Thoughts on Reflexivity.” It is an invitation to view gender performance through the same prism that George Soros suggests we view markets: reflexivity.
Further Reading
Is it 2057 or 2035 when computers take over the world? Over at AI Impacts, Katja Grace usefully distills and applies the results from a survey of machine learning specialists about the likely path of machine learning technology. For the record, the last time Enterprising Investor asked about this, 35% of respondents thought artificial intelligence (AI) was impossible. (AI Impacts, Enterprising Investor)
Harry Markopolos, CFA, claims to have uncovered a new fraud, this time in the public sector: The pension of the Massachusetts Bay Transit Authority (MBTA) is $500 million smaller than previously thought. The cause? A mix of “bad investments, fraudulent accounting, and unrealistic actuarial assumptions,” according to Markopolos. (Advisor Perspectives)
Just print this out and refer to it once every six months: “Can China Really Rein in Credit?” Opinions abound — and have long abounded — suggesting it is necessary. But political will and economic self-interest rarely match up. (Bloomberg View)
JP Koning’s discussion of what happened in 1947 to 1949 when policymakers were forking the Indian rupee into Pakistani and Indian flavors is a reminder of what occurs when theoretical experiments in currency are made real. Recent op-eds on the effect of demonetization for farmers make me wonder if digital money is worth all of the physical unease it creates. (Moneyness, The Indian Express)
India and Pakistan have both joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which Xinhua dubbed the “world’s most populous regional cooperative organization and the largest by area.” What is it, exactly? Read the background from the Council on Foreign Relations. (Xinhua, Council on Foreign Relations)
Fun Reads
If you liked this post, don’t forget to subscribe to the Enterprising Investor.
All posts are the opinion of the author. As such, they should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author’s employer.
Image credit: iStockphoto.com/JLGutierrez
Will Ortel
Will Ortel is a researcher and content manager at CFA Institute. He’s worked in investment management since 2006 and joined CFA Institute in 2010.
Source link
from CapitalistHQ.com http://capitalisthq.com/weekend-reads-classic-papers-for-lasting-learning/
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#cornwall #cornwalluk #cornwalllife #housalbay #housalbayhotel #cornishcoast #cornishpaleale #tributepaleale #paleale (at Housel Bay Hotel)
#cornishpaleale#cornwalllife#cornishcoast#housalbay#housalbayhotel#paleale#cornwalluk#cornwall#tributepaleale
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Housel Cove beach
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Cornwall Postcard The Lizard Lighthouse from Housel Bay, Cliffs, Sea, Rocks EL5
http://dlvr.it/RKWRr3
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