About the Nightmare system and Summon x10 for UR/+ cards.
Hey there. I've been contemplating if I should make a post about this, since it might not be very relevant in the first place. But considering how things have kinda exploded for the past two days regarding Nightbringer's gameplay and reward system, I've decided to share this little info. The post might be a bit long but I needed to explain what happened to get to the final part.
TL;DR version: Summon x10 most probably doesn't help getting UR/+ cards, it's the same as doing individual summons. And Solmare is not giving the info and details about how it works.
I'll explain how I got to that conclusion:
In the last Nightmare event, "First Step", as the huge Leviathan stan I am, I did everything I could do to get his UR+ card, using all the resources I had and farming like crazy for more DP and DV.
After about 118 pulls, the card never came.
You know, I am aware of how this works and I'm not going to complain in here about luck and all, that's not the point. But, in the final days of my crusade, I made an effort with a friend of mine to try to figure out what's best: Individual x1 summons, or the Summon x10.
I don't think I'm in the wrong by saying most players believe the Summon x10 actually increases your chances to get a valuable card. It does say it guarantees an SSR or higher in the banner.
But I started wondering if that was actually true, how does the Summon x10 work and what does it mean to guarantee an SSR or higher? What are the odds in that system?
So, with my friend, we started doing some calculations.
I need to be clear and say this was made mostly with Leviathan's UR+ in mind because that was my goal, to get that card specifically, but the logic should work for any UR/UR+ in Nightbringer's gacha events if the odds are the same and your goal is pulling those cards specifically.
Basically, if his card (and Diavolo's in that event) had a probability of 1,5% to drop, there was a 98,5% of not getting it, and doing some math I could detail if you want, we compared the chances for doing individual x1 summons ten times, and for doing a Summon x10 (in a system I'll detail a bit lower in here).
Without getting into the details of the calculations, the conclusion was: it's literally the same.
That, if we assume in the best case, that the odds are always 1,5%, be it individual or x10 pull. (other options included: the odds for those cards increase proportionally and that would make the odds for URs actually increase).
But now you might be wondering, why would the card still have that low percentage if, in a Summon x10, we are supposed to get a higher chance of getting valuable cards? After all, that's what most people go for when summoning if they want to increase their chances, right?
And that's exactly the question we had, how exactly are the odds working in there?
We theorized that Summon x10 works like this:
Out of 10 spaces, 9 use a regular pool with the regular odds you can find detailed in the Nightmare banner for every event, and 1 reserved space for a smaller pool of cards (the SSR and UR/+ ones) that has different odds.
The thing is... we don't actually know how it works and what the odds are for that smaller pool, so we tried theorizing like this:
If there's a reserved space for a different pool with different odds, since if needs to increase the chances compared to the regular pool, what exactly are those odds?
For example, in "First Step" there were 15 cards SSR or higher (the twelve regular SSRs + Barbatos SSR + DiaLevi URs). In the regular pool, those cards had a chance of:
Regular SSRs: 0.5%
Event! Barbatos SSR: 3.00%
Event! Diavolo/Leviathan UR+: 1.5%
But in this possible case, where a smaller pool should exist in that one reserved space, we have no idea what those odds are. I tried searching that info in the banner screen and the options menu, but there wasn't anything to be found. So me and my friend did the calculations assuming they worked as in using a SSR+ voucher, which were, if you checked the odds in the banner, the following:
Regular SSRs: 7.5%
Event! Barbatos SSR: 7.00%
Event! Diavolo/Leviathan UR+: 1.5%
Well, we start with the following information some may already now: Using a SSR+ Voucher has absolutely no benefit if you want a UR/+, because it keeps the same odds, and if anything, it only helps getting those SSRs. That should sound obvious because it's called SSR+ Voucher after all, but many people think it actually helps. But hey, that still isn't my main concern.
If we assume that the Summon x10 works like we just theorized, with that one space using the odds from the SSR+ Voucher, then, besides helping you get SSRs, Summon x10 doesn't help you with UR/+ cards. As simple as that.
When I realized it, I was struck with this feeling of foolishness because how did I not think about it before? And I'm sure I wasn't the only one, every new event I see people aiming for URs doing Summon x10.
...But that's not all, right?
Because all of this was only a theory and we don't know for sure how the Summon x10 actually works.
But we can try to find out, right? What's the detail in these odds? What do they mean when they "guarantee" an SSR or higher? (and, if you're careful enough, the details in the "option" menu only talk about guaranteeing at least one SSR, it never mentions the "higher" part).
Aaand this is where I wanted to get in the first place. I tried it. I tried asking Solmare about the details of how Summon x10 works and I first received an automatic response that completely avoided the question. So after insisting and directly asking one more time "In the Summon x10, what are the odds for the SSR or higher cards that are guaranteed?", I received this:
Now that's... That's shady. To say the least.
Why are they hiding the odds of the Summon x10? How does it work and how does it "guarantee" cards?
They could've confirmed the theory of the 9+1 spaces that I just explained (Yes, I wrote a long ass inquiry detailing that when I reached them), but instead they kept quiet?
I seriously don't understand, that information should be available, specially considering people pay to do it. Even if it doesn't work like I theorized, there has to be another way, that was exactly what I requested, without any hate or resentment, I was clear in what information I wanted. But... well.
I leave this information in here because I believe the players, if they hadn't figured this out already, should have this doubt in their minds as well when it comes to strategizing and using their resources. That in fact, we don't have all the information about the Gacha system, in purpose.
If you ask me about what conclusion did I reach with my friend, that is: If I only want the UR/+ of an event, I will only do individual pulls. The last days of that Nightmare event I did individual pulls and got Diavolo twice xD almost two times in a row (Diavolo -> filler card -> Diavolo) and that card had also a 1.5% chance of getting it. (Also, it pops up a new question: how does the random system work if a 1.5% card appears almost immediately one after another? Welp I haven't gotten there)
Of course if you want any card of the event, Summon X10 is a good option, it will certainly guarantee SSRs, but for URs... That's a different story.
So, yeah. That's my contribution from the torture I went through xD and the calculations I did with my friend (funnily, he came to the conclusion this has to be one of the most money grabbing gachas out there). I hadn't tried another method or theory for the odds but if you come up with something you can always complement the info.
If you need more details, feel free to hit the Ask button :3 (of you can even test the math with Chat GPT).
Peace out 👌
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