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wionews · 7 years

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Revolution of the young: The 2017 Election in the UK

On the Andrew Marr show on 11 June, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne described the Prime Minister, Theresa May as a ‘dead woman walking’. Osborne had his own reasons for glee at May’s terrible miscalculation in calling a snap election on 8 June, having been previously sacked from the Cabinet, as May cosied up to the party’s Eurosceptics for a ‘hard Brexit’. The latter would mean a departure from both the Single Market and the Customs Union – a move that, May sensed, required a greater parliamentary majority and legitimacy for herself and her party. It was the logical outcome of the Conservative Party’s shift to the right, the supposedly acceptable response to the resurgence of xenophobic populism in the UK.

But Osborne’s necrotic comments were not hyperbole. Predictions at the start of the election campaign were that May might increase her majority in Parliament from 17 to upwards of 100. On Friday 9 June morning, against all expectations and most pollsters, Jeremy Corbyn, the allegedly ‘unelectable’ leftist, had added 30 new seats for Labour. Better than any leader since Clement Atlee, he had increased the party’s share of the popular vote to over 40 per cent. The Conservatives lost a total of 13 seats, missing an overall majority in the House of Commons by 8 seats. Far from achieving a ‘strong and stable’ basis for Brexit, May had unwittingly set up one of the most spectacular and important electoral upsets in modern British history.

Theresa May’s robotic mantra of the need for ‘strong and stable’ government summarises, in almost comic fashion, the many ways in which this election turned the UK on its head. Because if there is one expression you could never use for a ‘hung parliament’ where no party holds a majority, it is ‘stability’. But there were other ironies which showed how the results had global implications. Throughout the election campaign which was accompanied by two serious terrorist attacks in Manchester and London, the parties of the right made a play of Corbyn’s historical conversations with members of the IRA. Yet two days after the election, May was building an alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland, whose 10 seats would allow her to govern. The DUP had strong links to Protestant paramilitary forces, principally the Ulster Volunteer Force, from the mid-1980s. And in forging a relationship with the DUP, May threatened to undo British government neutrality in Northern Ireland, which was key to peace via the Good Friday agreement. Overnight, Corbyn’s insistence that radical extremism needed to be tackled not with the suppression of rights, but by understanding its root international causes in UK colonial/postcolonial intervention, seemed to make perfect sense. And his logic was supported further by the publicised connections between MI6 and the Libyan bomber in Manchester, and by the UK’s continued arms deals with Saudi Arabia.

At least the DUP, reflecting Northern Ireland’s overwhelming support in the EU referendum for Remain, was likely to argue May should follow a softer Brexit line. In other ways then, and against all claims of ‘stability’, the government’s Brexit negotiations are thrown into disarray and further uncertainty. It is clear that the majority in the House of Commons would no longer back the ‘hard’ Brexit that May had nurtured on the back of post-imperial sentiments and a nod to popular xenophobia. The entire Brexit strategy has been premised so far on her penchant for being a ‘difficult woman’ in Brussels negotiations. But the only element of the election that allows May to hang on to power at all, are the newly won Conservative seats in Scotland. Furthermore, Ruth Davidson, the Conservative leader in Scotland, is strongly in favour of a ‘soft’ Brexit, remaining if possible in the Single Market.

Negotiators on the EU side will now look at the UK with uncertainty. May seems illegitimate both in the UK, and in the context of changing international relations. There are suggestions that not only could the negotiations themselves be delayed, but that the 27 EU states might even entertain a total reconsideration of Brexit itself, should the UK government choose to revoke the signing of article 50 and stay in the Union. The 2016 referendum, after all, was legally only ‘advisory’. And there is no doubt that the surge of dissatisfaction with Theresa May’s Conservatives on 8 June was driven, in part, by the ‘48%’ – the relatively well educated, demographically younger, and more left-wing supporters of Remain.

The constituency that feels most cheated are the 18 to 25-years-olds – the population of the UK that is perhaps most clearly connected to promises of overseas work, whose horizons are increasingly global, being connected to the like-minded like never before via social media and travel. Although denigrated by the right-wing tabloids as a man who would take Britain ‘back to the 1970s’ via old-fashioned socialism, Jeremy Corbyn managed to harness this constituency in a way that made a remarkable difference to the outcome of the election. It has also had a knock-on effect elsewhere in the world. Donald Trump, whose diminutive hand held that of Theresa May's, has now postponed his planned visit to the UK for fear of protests led by the very same constituencies that came out to vote for Corbyn. The ‘special relationship’ too then, between the USA and UK, like Anglophone influence in the EU, has never seemed more uncertain.

Perhaps the 2017 General Election in the UK shows something broader. Political scientists and commentators have looked at the rise of authoritarian populism in the USA, UK, India, Russia and Turkey as part of a possible global shift towards anti-cosmopolitanism, in the face of global economic crisis. The UK election of June 2017, alongside the Presidential elections in France of this year, suggest that important parts of Europe, at least, are bucking this trend. Most importantly, they show that a younger generation of voters and leaders are emerging to contest this global shift to the right, and to lay the possible foundations for a new kind of politics.

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banelemental · 5 years

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(Bloomberg) -- Follow @Brexit, sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, and tell us your Brexit story. Boris Johnson is planning for a general election on Oct. 14 if he loses a crucial vote over a no-deal Brexit in Parliament this week, a senior U.K. official said. The prime minister said he will not delay leaving the European Union in a speech after a short-notice meeting with his cabinet. Members of Parliament are planning to pass legislation to force the prime minister to delay Brexit until Jan. 31 unless he can get a new agreement with the European Union by mid-October.Key Developments:Johnson will start process for Oct. 14 general election if he loses No-deal Brexit vote in Parliament, a senior U.K. official saysJohnson met with his cabinet over expected House of Commons rebellionCross-party alliance of MPs draws up plan to seize the agenda in Parliament on Tuesday to force through legislation blocking a no-deal divorcePound falls by as much as 0.98%Johnson Planning For Oct. 14 election: Official (7:15 p.m.)Boris Johnson will start the process for calling a general election on October 14 if his government loses a vote intended to block a no-deal Brexit, a U.K. official said.If the House of Commons votes this week to order the prime minister to delay Brexit until Jan. 31, Johnson will propose a motion under the Fixed-Term Parliament Act for a general election.For an election to be called, that motion would need to be supported by at least two-thirds of MPs.Johnson: ‘No Circumstances’ I Would Ask for Delay (6:07 p.m.)Boris Johnson said the chances of a new Brexit deal with Brussels by Oct. 31 are increasing as he made a pitch for MPs to support the government against a rebel motion opposing a no-deal Brexit on Tuesday. If Parliament blocks a no-deal divorce, it will weaken the U.K.’s negotiating position, he said.“I want everybody to know there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay,” he said. “We’re leaving on 31 October, no ifs or buts. We will not accept any attempt to go back on our promises or to scrub that referendum.”“Let’s let our negotiators get on with their work, without that sword of Damocles over their necks and without an election,” he said. “I don’t want an election. You don’t want an election,” he added, hinting that one might be necessary if Parliament doesn’t get behind his plan.Johnson to Make Public Statement (5.45 p.m.)Johnson will make a public statement at 6 p.m. on Monday, his office said.No-Deal Opponents Publish Draft Bill (5.30 p.m.)A cross-party group of MPs led by Philip Hammond and Hilary Benn published a draft bill that they’ll use to try and prevent a no-deal Brexit. It would require Johnson to extend exit day to Jan. 31 if he doesn’t either reach a deal with the EU that’s approved by Parliament or secure Parliament’s agreement for leaving the bloc with no deal.A motion will be used on Tuesday to take control of the order paper from 3 p.m. the following day. That’s after Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid’s Spending Review.They’ll then debate a four-page bill that demands the government meet one of the two conditions by Oct. 19. If neither condition is met, the prime minister must write to the EU to ask for a three-month extension to negotiations, the motion says.Tory Rebels Asked Johnson to Reassure Markets (4:20 p.m.)The 21 potential Tory rebels who were due to meet Johnson on Monday (see 3:35 p.m.) asked him to reassure the currency markets by confirming he was still committed to a deal with the EU in a letter dated Aug. 12 made public today.The letter, signed by Hammond and former cabinet ministers Rory Stewart, David Lidington, David Gauke and Greg Clark, said they were “alarmed” by Johnson’s Brexit red lines, which “appear to eliminate” the chances of striking a deal with Brussels.“We would therefore greatly appreciate your confirmation that you remain committed to doing a deal, that you accept any such deal will require compromise and that it remains your view that the chance of No Deal is ‘less than a million to one’,” they said, quoting his line during the leadership campaign. “This will reassure not only us, but also the currency markets.”Hammond Demands Answers from Johnson (3:25 p.m.)Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond wrote to Boris Johnson to demand answers about his progress on a Brexit deal after the prime minister canceled a meeting with 21 potential Tory rebels scheduled for Monday.Hammond, who has said he’ll do everything he can to stop a no-deal Brexit, asked the premier to provide specific details of his talks with the EU and explain how he thinks he’s closer to a new agreement. He also asked Johnson to publish his proposals to replace the Irish border backstop and any other revisions to the Withdrawal Agreement before Parliament reconvenes on Tuesday.Johnson has tried to convince Tory MPs that he’s close to agreeing a deal with the bloc to stop them voting against him. Hammond said in his letter that many of the 21 Tories due to attend the meeting had planned to decide their next steps after hearing from the prime minister.Details of Rebel Plan Emerge (3:15 p.m.)Details of the rebel plans to stop a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31 by pushing legislation through Parliament are beginning to emerge.Two people familiar with the draft law told Bloomberg it would compel Johnson to seek a three-month delay if he’s been unable to get a new Brexit deal through the House of Commons by Oct. 19 or to persuade lawmakers to back a no-deal departure.That would set Jan. 31 as the new deadline for Brexit.Goldman Sachs Weighs in on Election Speculation (2:45 p.m.)There is still scope for an election on or around Oct. 17 if Boris Johnson “decides this week that a pre-Brexit general election is his best response to a legislative lock on “no deal,” Goldman Sachs said in a note to investors.Its view is that going down that route would be difficult, as it would require more than 100 opposition MPs to garner the necessary two-thirds majority. Goldman said the price those opposition lawmakers would charge would be to see “concrete evidence that PM Johnson has already sought EU permission for an Article 50 extension beyond 31 October.””Traditionally, the date of a general election is in the gift of the prime minister,” the note said. “In our view, it would be sub optimal for Labour MPs to allow the Conservative government to call an October election that characterizes the Labour front-bench as a Brexit saboteur. That said, the Labour leadership would certainly find itself in a difficult position.”Irish PM Says Unionist Proposals Interesting (2:20 p.m.)Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar signaled his willingness to consider alternatives to the backstop, by describing some proposals from the Ulster Unionist Party as “interesting.”The UUP proposals include the creation of a criminal offense of transporting non-compliant goods through the U.K. to the EU, and creating a cross-border trade body, the BBC reported.While Varadkar told reporters these wouldn’t solve all the problems at the frontier, they shouldn’t be dismissed “out of hand.”Johnson Election Threat in Bid to Quell Rebellion (1:05 p.m.)Boris Johnson would treat a vote in Parliament to block a no-deal Brexit as a vote of no-confidence in his government, according to a person familiar with his thinking, who asked not to be identified because the plans are private.Johnson’s official spokesman, James Slack, said on Monday morning that Johnson doesn’t want an election.Under British conventions, a vote of no-confidence can trigger a general election and the fact that Johnson is invoking these conventions suggests he has his eye on a snap poll.As the timetable currently stands, the next election is not due until 2022. If he wanted to hold an election early, Johnson would need to win the support of members of Parliament in a special vote.Johnson Convenes Meeting of Cabinet (12:30 p.m.)Boris Johnson will meet his cabinet ministers for talks as he draws up plans to counter a threat by parliamentarians to block a no-deal split from the EU.A government official confirmed a BBC report that the cabinet will meet later on Monday. The BBC also said one option -- among many under discussion -- could be for Johnson to call for a snap general election later this week.Varadkar, Johnson Could Meet Next Week (12:20 p.m.)Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said he may meet with Boris Johnson next week, with two possible dates being worked on.Speaking to reporters, Varadkar said he’s always ready to listen to potential U.K. proposals to break the Brexit impasse.Labour Could Back Leave in Repeat Referendum (11:55 a.m.)Jeremy Corbyn left his options open for a second referendum, reiterating the party wouldn’t necessarily back Remain if the government brought back a deal from Brussels.Asked if he could support a Labour leave position in a ballot, Corbyn said Labour would only definitely back Remain if the alternative was a no-deal split from the EU.Labour would include the promise of a public vote in its next manifesto, Corbyn said. “If it’s no-deal then we will vote to Remain, if it’s any other deal then our party’s democratic process will decide what position we take,” he told his audience in Salford.Corbyn has been reluctant to turn Labour into the anti-Brexit party, though he has vowed to do everything he can to prevent a no-deal exit from the bloc.Johnson’s Drinks With MPs As Showdown Looms (11:45 a.m.)Boris Johnson will host his Conservative colleagues at a drinks reception on Monday evening ahead of a statement to Parliament on Tuesday, his spokesman James Slack told reporters.Slack said it would be “entirely unreasonable” for members of Parliament -- who rejected Theresa May’s deal three times -- to bind the prime minister’s hands by blocking a no-deal Brexit just as he goes into fresh negotiations with the EU.It’s another warning to potential Conservative rebels after they were threatened with deselection if they break ranks. Johnson himself voted against May’s deal.Corbyn: ‘Last Chance’ to Stop No Deal Brexit (11:35 a.m.)Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn warned that this week could be the last chance to prevent a no-deal breakup with the EU. Speaking in Salford, northwest England, Corbyn said he’s finalizing plans with other members of Parliament for how to stop Johnson pushing ahead.“We must come together to stop no deal,” Corbyn said. “This week could be our last chance. We are working with other parties to do everything necessary to pull our country back from the brink.”After stopping Johnson, Britain needs a general election, Corbyn said. In a rehearsal for that election campaign, he framed his argument in wider political terms, repeatedly portraying Johnson and his Tory party as friends of a wealthy elite who won’t pay the price of a no-deal split from the EU.Rees-Mogg Accuses Doctor Of ‘Fear-mongering,’ (10:30 a.m.)In a bad-tempered exchange on LBC radio Leader of the House of Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg was asked by a doctor involved in planning for a no-deal Brexit what level of patient mortality he would be happy to accept.In reply Rees-Mogg accused the doctor of “fear-mongering,” adding “I don’t think there is any reason to suppose a no-deal Brexit should lead to a mortality rate; this is the worst excess of Project Fear.”No-Deal a 95% Chance if Parliament Fails, Gauke Says (Earlier)Former Justice Secretary David Gauke said there’s a 95% chance of a No-Deal split with the EU on Oct. 31 if Parliament fails to pass legislation blocking it.The former minister, who voted three times for Theresa May’s deal with the EU and favors leaving with an agreement, accused Boris Johnson of “goading people to vote against the government” as part of a strategy aimed at provoking a general election.Gauke told the BBC that Johnson’s adviser Dominic Cummings, who isn’t a member of the Conservative Party, is behind the “unusual” and “confrontational” strategy. There has been no approach to rebels to persuade them to change their minds, just threats of being thrown out of the party and banned as election candidates, he said.No-Deal Opponents Coalesce Around Short Extension (Earlier)Opponents of a no-deal Brexit have coalesced around a short extension to Britain’s membership as this week’s goal, former Tory Lawmaker Nick Boles told BBC radio.Rebel Tories and opposition MPs want to pass a law requiring Johnson to seek an extension -- assuming he can’t get a revised deal or persuade Parliament to back a no-deal Brexit by Oct. 31, Boles said.According to Boles, the extension wouldn’t be more than “a few more months.” That’s “not long enough crucially for a referendum, so this is not an attempt to somehow sneak a second referendum in,” he said.Chuka Umunna, a Liberal Democrat who quit the Labour Party earlier this year, agreed that stopping a no-deal Brexit is this week’s goal, but his party sees it as a stepping stone to stopping Brexit altogether.Long-Bailey Says Bill Designed for Broad Appeal (Earlier)Rebecca Long-Bailey, Business spokeswoman for the opposition Labour Party, said a proposed bill aimed at blocking a no-deal split from the EU -- which she said will be introduced on Tuesday -- will be kept “as short and simple as possible” to give it broad appeal across the political spectrum in Parliament.This week is the “last chance” to stop a “disastrous” no-deal divorce, she told BBC Radio.Earlier:U.K. INSIGHT: How Boris Johnson Could Ruffle the Housing MarketFate of Brexit Is Up in the Air as Johnson Delivers SurprisesJohnson Is Campaigning Again, But What Exactly Is He Selling?\--With assistance from Dara Doyle, Flavia Krause-Jackson, Tim Ross, Alex Morales and Kitty Donaldson.To contact the reporters on this story: Jessica Shankleman in London at [email protected];Robert Hutton in London at [email protected] contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at [email protected], Thomas Penny, Caroline AlexanderFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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autodidact-adventures · 7 years

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World War I (Part 15): Britain Goes to War

Despite the surprise they'd given the Germans, the British soldiers weren't more than a nuisance for them. They were some of the world's best soldiers (having had plenty of experience in colonialist wars) but there weren't many of them.

The French were delighted that Britain was fighting on their side. They'd been molding national policy towards that hope for years, and now they had the richest European nation, and the best navy in the world, on their side.

For the British, though, it was rather unexpected that they were involved. During the July crisis, Edward Grey's office had been focused on preserving the peace, and they'd kept a position of almost excessive neutrality, so that public opinion wouldn't turn on them. The British government at this time was primarily concerned not about European issues, but about Ireland.

Ireland was legally a part of the UK, not a British possession. It had representatives in Parliament, and there were enough of them that they could not only effect policy, but also cause governments to rise and fall with their votes.

The Irish nationalists were mostly Catholic, and they wanted Home Rule for their country – their own parliament and government, and independence. But in Northern Ireland were the Ulstermen – descendants of the Scottish Protestants whom Oliver Cromwell had moved there about 250yrs before, back when it was a crime to be a Catholic. For the Ulstermen, or Unionists, Home Rule meant being subject to the Pope, and they were willing to fight to prevent it.

By mid-1914, the Liberal Party had been in power for over 8yrs. Compared to their Conservative (Tory) rivals, they were a reformist party – their policies included national health insurance, and a government system of old-age pensions. British governments depend on having a majority of votes in the House of Commons, and they are replaced if they lose this majority. The Liberal government's popularity had dropped over the years, and they were dependent on a bloc of 30 Irish nationalists to maintain their majority.

These nationalists knew how important they were to the Liberals, and they were demanding Home Rule as a price. PM Herbert Henry Asquith and his cabinet knew they had to give it to them, or they'd lose their votes, so they were moving a Home Rule bill through Parliament. Of course, the Conservatives were completely opposed to it, and they were supported by the Unionists. There seemed no possibility of compromise, and the situation was getting dangerous – the Unionists were organizing 100,000 Ulstermen into militias, with the threat that they'd rise up in rebellion rather than suffer Home Rule, and weapons were being smuggled into Northern Ireland.

Many in the army leadership were Anglo-Irish and Unionist, and passionately opposed to Asquith's Liberal government. It was becoming obvious that if Home Rule happened, a military suppression of Unionist rebellion would have to happen. Earlier in the spring, the war office had promised that if this did happen, British officers whose family homes were in Ireland wouldn't have to participate in putting it down. But the rest had to follow orders – or they could state their objections and be discharged.

This situation led to the Curragh Mutiny on March 20th. Some of the army's senior officers declared that they supported the Unionists, and that the Unionists' only crime was to be loyal to the UK. Therefore, it was an outrage to call them disloyal. 57 out of 70 officers in a cavalry brigade based at Curragh in Ireland announced that they'd rather be discharged than have to fight Ulster (their commanding general was one of them).

The Secretary of State for War tried to help by stating that there'd be no military suppression of the Protestants. Asquith contradicted him, and the Chief of the Imperial General Staff, Field Marshal John French, resigned. So did some other senior officers. King George VI had to intervene, and things began to improve. By the end of May, it was widely accepted that Ireland would have to be partitioned, despite the nationalists' objections. The British government was still focused on the Home Rule issue in the weeks after the archduke's assassination.

Austria delivered their note to Serbia on Thursday, July 23rd. On that day, a conference called by George VI was held at Buckingham Palace, to discuss how to partition Ireland. The conference failed.

On Saturday, July 26th (6 days before France & Germany mobilized), British troops fired on a crowd of demonstrators in Dublin. It seemed likely that civil war would break out.

But without the public noticing, Britain was slowly being drawn into the European crisis. Britain's foreign policy was based around maintaining the balance of power on the continent – making sure that no nation became powerful enough to threaten British security. When France had been the most powerful nation, it was automatically Britain's enemy. After Napoléon was defeated, Russia's power grew, and for a while the relationship between Russia and Britain grew so bad that they fought each other in the Crimean War (1853-56) – with France now on Britain's side.

After 1870, it was the emergence of the German Empire, and the decline of France, that became a threat. When Wilhelm II decided to built a High Seas Fleet that would be big and modern enough to challenge the Royal Navy, Britain became more worried. They were certain that the next war would be with Germany. If Germany was to be prevented from ruling Europe, then Britain would have to stop them from defeating France.

This sort of thinking was very common in the army headquarters, especially among the Unionists officers who believed that if Britain got involved in a European war, it would mean the Home Rule bill wouldn't go through (they were right).

For years before 1914, the British & French general staff planners had been secretly meeting to plan a joint war against Germany. (Asquith approved these talks, but he got little thanks for it.) General Sir Henry Wilson was the chief military liaison to Paris, and his loyalty to the Union cause was unquestionable. In fact, he was said to say that it was greater than his loyalty to Britain. He hated Asquith and his “filthy cabinet”, and his violent attitude was only somewhat more extreme than other army officers'.

Gradually, detailed plans were worked out to move the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) to France if war happened. However, only the “imperialist” (i.e. pro-war) minority in the cabinet were allowed to know about this planning. When other cabinet members asked for information, Grey would tell them that nothing had been done to commit Britain, so they didn't need to worry.

Early in the summer, though, German newspapers revealed that British military & naval authorities were also having secret meetings with Russia. Grey publicly denied that this had happened, but he wasn't telling the truth. He was in a rather awkward situation. He was worried that if Britain didn't show a possibility of support in case of war, Russia would abandon its Entente with France, and that was why he'd agreed to the talks. Some important Russians thought it was ridiculous to ally with republican France – and it was ridiculous to ally with Britain, who had constantly blocked Russian expansion to the south, in order to protect its own overseas interests. Likewise, some British didn't want to be allied with tsarist Russia.

Back in 1907, the Anglo-Russian Convention had worked out an agreement between the two countries. As the British government saw it, it was a way of relieving the pressure on the British Empire, which had grown too big for even the Royal Navy to defend. Britain would be friendly towards Russia on the continent, so long as Russia didn't threaten India, Britain's part of Persia (modern-day Iran), or Afghanistan.

Now, the Liberal government's attention was gradually drawn towards the European situation. The majority of the cabinet was strongly opposed to war, for various reasons. Some believed that Britain should be allied with Germany, and that the imperialists' anti-German bias would cause problems. Some warned that Germany's defeat would lead to the rise of Russia, which would wreck the balance of power in a different way. Some believed there was no justification for going to war, and that any gain would be nothing compared to the loss of life and material costs.

A cabinet meeting was held on Saturday, July 25th. The anti-war majority made it clear that they would rather resign than approve a declaration of war. This would have serious repercussions. It would mean the end of the Liberal government, and their replacement by the Conservatives, under Andrew Bonar Law (a Unionist). Everything the Liberals had achieved, or were hoping to achieve, in Ireland and at home, would be undone. And the Conservatives wanted war, so that would happen anyway. Finally, all the cabinet members would lose their jobs. Even the most anti-war cabinet members didn't want to bring down the government.

Not all of the imperialist minority actually wanted war. (Churchill was one of those who did). Asquith and Grey were both sober about the possibility, agreeing that it would be terrible for both the losers and the victors. But they believed that allowing Germany to crush France would be worse. Russia only mattered inasmuch as it was useful for saving France. If a general war increased Russia's size and power, that would be unfortunate.

Grey had the most responsibility for sorting out this complicated situation. There were two specific dilemmas facing him. First, he had to try to avoid war, using the British Empire's influence, but without saying or doing anything that the cabinet's majority would put up with (and thus causing resignations). He failed in this, but it was because of the divisions in the cabinet, which made it impossible for him to intervene in ways that might have worked.

Second, Grey had to persuade the cabinet and House of Commons (which, as August came to an end, was also majority anti-war) to agree that if war broke out between the continental great powers, they would intervene. He did succeed in this – mostly because of the Belgium issue, which came up thanks to the kaiser.

Grey was 52yrs old in 1914. He was quiet, intelligent, well-educated and came from an aristocratic family. He believed, like many at the time, that Britain was a step above the other European countries in morals and ethics, and that by serving the empire's interests, he was serving civilization. In 1905, he had been appointed Foreign Secretary. He was widowed – his wife had been killed in 1906, when her pony cart overturned on a country lane. His eyesight was failing, making work more difficult for him, and he would be forced to resign in 1916 because of it.

Asquith was 61yrs old in 1914. He was born to a middle-class family, and had been a lawyer. He'd been in Parliament for three decades, and head of the Liberal government for 6 years. He had principles, but he seems to have mostly been concerned with staying in power without exerting himself too much. And keeping the cabinet together was difficult, with so many clashing opinions and alignments.

From July 25th onwards, the cabinet met nearly every day. But it was clear that any attempt to get a majority to support war would lead to the end of the Liberal government. Asquith and Grey just had to wait.

By Monday 27th, it was obvious that Grey's proposal for a 4-way conference (of Britain, France, Italy and Germany) wasn't going to work. This was because the London Conference of 1913, which settled the end of the Second Balkan War, had been very unsatisfactory for Austria and Germany. The other powers in the conference had used it for their own advantage, thus destroying Germany & Austria's trust in such things.

On Wednesday, 29th July, the majority of the cabinet suggested that Britain declare itself unconditionally neutral in case of war. Grey replied that he wasn't the man to implement that resolution, and that he'd resign if it was approved. Asquith backed him up, and so the majority backed off.

The pressure on Grey and Asquith was immense, and coming from all directions. Henry Wilson was demanding mobilization. The German Ambassador Lichnowsky was almost begging Grey to remain neutral, and also trying to persuade him that Germany had no hostile intentions against British interests. If the Germans had learned of the position Grey & Asquith had taken within their cabinet, then things might have gone very differently, but they didn't.

Wilson began insisting that Britain was morally obliged to stand with France – those years of military consultation between the two countries justified the French in expecting them to. France had trusted Britain by moving its navy to the Mediterranean, leaving the defense of northern waters to the Royal Navy. But the anti-war ministers replied that they had said, many times over the years, that this joint military planning might drawn Britain into commitments with France – and they'd been reassured that this would not happen.

On Thursday 30th, the tsar agreed to mobilization. Grey had been urging the Russians to delay mobilization, but he had less influence than Paléologue, who had been urging the opposite from the start.

Also on Thursday, Poincaré told Grey that he believed Britain could prevent the general war if they warned Germany that they would support France. Grey only replied that he doubted Britain's ability to make that big of a difference – he was still determinedly sticking to neutrality.

But now, without his cabinet's approval, he told Lichnowsky (who definitely didn't want a war, and Grey knew it), that in his opinion, if Germany went to war with France, Britain would fight them as well.

On Friday 31st, the cabinet's majority was still against war. Grey suggested the Stop-in-Belgrade idea to Lichnowsky, but Austria rejected it, despite the kaiser's support for it. The kaiser ordered Lichnowsky to promise Grey that if Britain stayed neutral, Germany would restore France & Belgium's borders at the end of the war. Alarmed at the mention of Belgium, the cabinet authorized Grey to ask France & Germany to promise to respect Belgian neutrality. Germany couldn't do so.

Now things were different. It was no longer a question of whether Britain would go to war in support of France and Russia, but of whether Britain would allow Germany to violate Belgium's neutrality. The public would have no difficulty in understanding this.

During the weekend (August 1st-2nd), the cabinet remained divided. 8 members were for war if Germany invaded Belgium, and 11 were against. Asquith, Grey and Churchill were pro-war. David Lloyd George, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, was the most prominent figure on the anti-war side, but he was careful not to let himself be the leader of that group, as it would mean he had no freedom to manouevre.

Even though the anti-war side was still in the majority, several of its members were no longer firm in their position. Asquith and Grey had led them to hope (or possibly mislead them into believing) that Britain would only be involved in a naval role, which would be relatively low in cost and risk. This gave less weight to the anti-war side, and few of them still believed their resignations would make a difference.

But some of the most senior anti-war members believed, as Lord John Morley said, that “the precipitate and peremptory blaze about Belgium was due less to indignation at the violation of a Treaty than to natural perception of the plea that it would furnish for intervention on behalf of France, for expeditionary force, and all the rest of it.” (Morley would later resign rather than agree to war.)

Frances Lloyd George was Lloyd George's private secretary and mistress (she later married him), and she saw him change his mind and support war in early August. Over 40yrs later, she would write, “My own opinion is that L.G.'s mind was really made up from the first, that he knew we would have to go in, and that the invasion of Belgium was, to be cynical, a heaven-sent excuse for supporting a declaration of war.”

On August 2nd, still nothing was decided. Asquith wrote in a letter, “I suppose that a good three-fourths of our own party in the House of Commons are for absolute non-interference at any prince.” On this day, Germany marched into Luxembourg, and launched some small raids into France. In the evening, they gave their ultimatum to Belgium, claiming that they had to invade Belgium before France could do so, and demanding passage for their troops. They promised to pay for all damage done by their army.

France was still holding its troops back, determined to make sure that everyone saw Germany as the aggressors.

Early on Monday, August 3rd, King Albert of Belgium refused the ultimatum. Later in the day, Germany declared war on France. Grey addressed the House of Commons, and spoke for an hour. He emphasized the government's attempts to prevent war; that Germany's invasion of Belgium would be a threat to Britain; and that if they didn't support Belgium, they would have to surrender their honour. He kept his arguments on a moral level, rather than a practical one such as the continental balance of power.

Not everyone was persuaded – few of the Liberals cheered at all – but the Conservatives were delighted. A pro-war majority was gained, and so was the public's support. The only questions left was whether Germany would move through only a small corner of Belgium or move into the main part of the country; and whether Belgium would resist.

On Tuesday 4th, they discovered the answers – huge numbers of German troops began crossing the border towards Liège. And Belgium was going to fight back.

At 11pm, Britain declared war on Germany. A few cabinet members resigned, but they knew that no-one cared. The pretense that only the Navy would be involved was ignored and forgotten. Britain prepared to go to war in Western Europe for the first time in exactly a century.

Lloyd George was cheered as he rode through London, and he muttered to his companions, “This is not my crowd...I never want to be cheered by a war crowd.” Asquith was of a similar mind: “It is curious,” he wrote, “how, going to and from the House, we are now always surrounded and escorted by cheering crowds of loafers and holiday makers. I have never before been a popular character with 'the man in the street', and in all this dark and dangerous business it gives me scant pleasure. How one loathes such levity.”

#book: a world undone #history #military history #ww1 #curragh mutiny #britain #ireland #northern ireland #germany #oliver cromwell #edward grey #herbert henry asquith #john french #george vi #henry wilson #karl lichnowsky #lloyd george #home rule #lead-up to ww1

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tattersall-blog · 7 years

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History in the 1910s

On the 15 February 1910 the Liberals won the election but lose their overall majority. The election precipitated by the Lords' rejection of the 'People's Budget' resulted in 275 seats for the Liberals, 273 for the Conservatives and 40 for Labour. The budget was then passed. The Irish Nationalists, with 82, were now in a position to force Irish 'Home Rule' back up the agenda.

On the 6 May 1910 Edward VII died and is succeeded by George V. Both Edward VII, who died in 1910, and his son, George V, ensured that the monarchy was more active than it had been in the latter years of Victoria's reign, but they exercised their influence discreetly. Edward's funeral brought together the royalty of Europe - many of them his relations - for the last time before war broke out in 1914.

On the 19 December 1910 the Liberals retain power in the second general election of the 1910. After the general election in February, efforts to broker a deal on parliamentary reform failed, and the Liberals went back to the polls at the end of the year. They and the Conservatives each secured 272 seats, and, with Labour supporting the Liberals, the Irish Nationalists held the balance of power.

On the 1 July 1911 the German gunboat provokes the 'Agadir crisis' with France. The Germans despatched a gunboat to the Moroccan port of Agadir to assert their rights against the French. A Franco-German settlement was negotiated, but the British were alarmed, fearing the Germans planned to turn Agadir into a naval base. As with the first Moroccan crisis in 1905, Germany only succeeded in strengthening the Entente Cordiale between Britain and France.

On the 10 August 1911 the House of Lords loses its power of veto over legislation. The Liberals finally forced through House of Lords reform, which had been on the cards for two years. The reforms meant that the Lords could not veto legislation that had passed the House of Commons in three successive sessions, and that parliament itself would be dissolved after five years, not seven. In separate legislation, pay for members of parliament was introduced.

In December 1911 the National Insurance Act provides cover against sickness and unemployment. Chancellor of the Exchequer David Lloyd George devised a contributory scheme of health insurance for those in employment, which provided payment for medical treatment. Grafted on to the act was a limited plan for unemployment benefit drawn up by Winston Churchill. With this legislation, the Liberals laid the foundations of the Welfare State.

On the 11 April 1912 the Liberals propose Irish 'Home Rule' for the third time. Reflecting their dependence on Irish Nationalist votes in the House of Commons, the Liberals proposed 'Home Rule' for Ireland. In response, Ulster Protestants and unionists formed the Ulster Volunteer Force, a paramilitary force which threatened the government with civil war if the measure was carried.

On the 13 April 1912 the Royal Flying Corps is established. The foundation of the Royal Flying Corps (RFC) reflected British recognition of the growing importance of military aviation. In 1918, the RFC was amalgamated with the Royal Naval Air Service to form the Royal Air Force (RAF).

On the 15 April 1912 the 'Titanic' sinks with the loss of 1,503 lives. The White Star liner 'Titanic' was the largest vessel in the world at the time of her launch. Her builders and owners claimed that she was 'practically unsinkable', but on her maiden voyage from Southampton to New York she collided with an iceberg and sank within hours, with the loss of 1,503 lives. 'Titanic' could carry over 3,500 people, but was equipped with only enough lifeboats to save 1,178, a fact that contributed to the massive loss of life.

On 4 June 1913 the Suffragette Emily Davison is killed by the king's horse.

Emily Wilding Davison was severely injured when she threw herself in front of the king's horse at the Derby, and died in hospital a few days later. The militancy of her organisation, the Women's Social and Political Union, proved counter-productive to the cause of women's rights, but the more moderate National Union of Women's Suffrage Societies also had little to show for its efforts through negotiation.

On 20 March 1914 the elements of the army say they won't enforce Irish 'Home Rule'. The officers of the 6th Cavalry Brigade, stationed outside Dublin, indicated that they would refuse to enforce Irish 'Home Rule' in Ulster if a parliamentary act proposing greater autonomy for Ireland were carried. The army was divided within itself, representing a potential flashpoint for the government. Irish Home Rule was shelved at the outbreak of World War One.

On 28 June 1914 Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo. The heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, was assassinated by Gavrilo Princip, a Bosnian Serb terrorist, in Sarajevo. The Austro-Hungarian government blamed Serbia and used the killing as a pretext for war. For most Britons this was an remote and insignificant event, but the conflict would escalate sharply, drawing in the 'Great Powers' and ultimately resulting in the outbreak of World War One.

On 23 July 1914 the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum to Serbia provokes a crisis in Europe. On 6 July, Germany effectively gave unconditional backing to any action Austria-Hungary took regarding the recent assassination of its crown prince, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, by a Bosnian Serb in Sarajevo. Austria-Hungary used this 'blank cheque' to deliver an ultimatum to Serbia on 23 July, which was widely recognised as little more than a pretext for war. With Russia standing by Serbia, Britain invited Germany to join a 'Great Power' conference to resolve the conflict, but Germany refused.

On the 5 November 1914 the Britain declares war on the Ottoman Empire. Germany formed an alliance with the Ottoman Empire on 2 August 1914, but the Turks resisted German pressure to enter the war until the end of October when it shelled Russian ports on the Black Sea. Britain, France and Russia responded with declarations of war. The Ottoman Empire in turn declared a military 'jihad' in November. The implications for Britain, with a vulnerable empire stretching across the Middle East to India and including a large Muslim population, were considerable.

On the 25 September 1915 the First British use of poison gas, at Loos, France. While the French attacked further south, the British struck at Loos, using chlorine gas for the first time in their initial attack. However, the wind was not favourable, and gains were limited. The battle continued until mid-October. The first use of poison gas in World War One was by the Germans on 22 April 1915 during the opening engagements of the Second Battle of Ypres.

On the 6 December 1916 David Lloyd George becomes prime minister. Prime Minister Herbert Asquith opposed the creation of a smaller war committee to run the war effort on a daily basis. His Liberal colleague and Minister for Munitions David Lloyd George, with the support of the Conservatives, used the split to force Asquith out and replace him as prime minister. Lloyd George set up a war cabinet whose members were freed from other cabinet duties.

On the 7 November 1917 Bolsheviks, under Vladimir Lenin, create a communist revolution in Russia. In February 1917, Tsar Nicholas II of Russia was forced to abdicate after serious reverses in the war against Germany. A provisional government of liberals and moderate socialists was established, but it also failed on the battlefield and was overthrown in a carefully planned coup by the Bolsheviks, who promised 'peace, bread and land' to the war-weary Russian people. Inspired by the writings of Karl Mar, the Bolsheviks established a government based on the 'soviet' (governing council).

On the 11 December 1917 the General Edmund Allenby leads British forces into Jerusalem. After seizing Beersheba and Gaza in the first week of November, British forces under General Edmund Allenby forced the Turks to abandon Jerusalem. Prime Minister David Lloyd George described this as a 'Christmas present' for the British people at the end of a year when a conclusion to the war seemed remote.

On the 26 October 1918 Turkey opens armistice talks with Britain. With the Ottoman army in retreat on three of its four fronts - in Bulgaria, Syria and Iraq - the Turks opened negotiations to surrender. Unlike the negotiations with the other enemy powers, these were bilateral talks between the British and the Turks, with no French or Russian involvement.

14 December 1918 David Lloyd George's coalition wins the post-war election. This was the first election in which women voted. The results were Conservative and Coalition Liberals 509, Labour 72, Independent Liberals (former Liberal Prime Minister Herbert Asquith's followers) 36, others 27. Although 73 members of Sinn Fein were elected, who included among their number Britain's first woman member of parliament Countess Constance Markievicz, they refused to take their seats.

On the 31 January 1919 the Massive rally in Glasgow sparks fears of a Russian-style revolution. Glasgow had a history of radicalism, and World War One turned it into a centre for organised protest against poor working conditions. The Liberal government feared this mass rally was the beginning of a working class revolution along the lines of the Russian Revolution of 1917. The rally was broken up by police, and troops and tanks were deployed on Clydeside. In reality, the protesters objectives were not that revolutionary - a 40-hour working week and a living wage.

On the 18 March 1919 the Rowlatt Act extends the suspension of civil liberties in India. The Rowlatt Act extended wartime 'emergency measures', such as detention without trial. Mohandas Gandhi of the Indian Congress Party asked Indians to use non-violent civil disobedience in protest against the act, and to refuse to cooperate with the British government. The 1918 Montagu-Chelmsford Report offered reform, but not self-rule - despite the sacrifices India had made in the war and US President Woodrow Wilson's declaration regarding national self-determination.

On the 10 April 1919 the British soldiers kill hundreds of unarmed Indian civilians at Amritsar, India. A large crowd attending a Sikh religious festival in defiance of British martial law was fired on without warning by troops under the command of Brigadier General Reginald Dyer. More than 300 people were killed. The 'Amritsar Massacre' crystallised growing Indian discontent with British rule, which was only heightened when Dyer faced no other punishment than an official censure. Led by Mohandas Gandhi, the Indian Congress Party now became a nationwide movement committed to independence.

On he 11 September 1919 the British government declares Sinn Fein's 'Dáil Eireann' (parliament) illegal. When the British government outlawed Sinn Fein's Dáil Eireann, it sparked a vicious two-year guerrilla war between the Irish Republican Army (IRA) in southern Ireland and British forces, which included the hated 'Black and Tan' auxiliaries. With the IRA unable to deliver a decisive victory, and the British government increasingly worried about rising casualties and international criticism over its conduct of the war, a truce was called in July 1921.

On the 12 October 1919 the British troops are withdrawn from the civil war in Russia. In 1918, a British force had been sent to Archangel in Russia to prevent Allied stores falling into Bolshevik or German hands and to take pressure off the Western Front after the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk had taken Russia out of World War One. The evacuation of Murmansk in 1919, and the evacuation of Archangel two weeks previously, ended the British attempt to intervene on the anti-Bolshevik ('White Russian') side in the civil war in northern Russia.

On the 23 December 1919 the exclusion of women from many jobs is made illegal. The Sex Disqualification Removal Act made it illegal for women to be excluded from most jobs, and allowed them to hold judicial office and enter the professions. Women could now become magistrates, solicitors and barristers.

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stairnaheireann · 2 years

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#OTD in 1969 – Bernadette Devlin was elected MP for Mid Ulster, standing as the Independent Unity candidate; at 21 years old, she was Britain’s youngest ever female MP and the third youngest MP ever.

Devlin was born in Cookstown, Co Tyrone to a Roman Catholic family. She attended St Patrick’s Girls Academy in Dungannon. She was studying Psychology at Queen’s University Belfast in 1968 when she took a prominent role in a student-led civil rights organisation, People’s Democracy. Devlin was subsequently excluded from the university. She stood unsuccessfully against James Chichester-Clark in the…

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#Belfast #Bernadette Devlin #Bernadette Devlin McAliskey #George Forrest #Irish Republican Socialist Party #Mid-Ulster constituency #Northern Ireland general election #Queen&039;s University #Seamus Costello #Ulster Unionist Party Member of Parliament for Mid Ulster #Unity ticket

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drubblernews-blog · 7 years

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New Post has been published on http://drubbler.com/2017/03/04/ulster-unionist-leader-mike-nesbitt-is-to-resign/

Ulster Unionist leader Mike Nesbitt is to resign

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Image copyright Pacemaker

Image caption Walking away: Mike Nesbitt is to stand down as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party

Ulster Unionist leader Mike Nesbitt is to resign – the first major casualty of the Northern Ireland Assembly election.

“The buck stops here,” he said, announcing his decision as the count continued and shortly after he won his seat at the Strangford count.

Sinn Féin has increased its vote in the poll, while the DUP has largely held its place.

There is just one more seat to be declared, 89 out of 90 have been confirmed.

Image copyright Stephen Hamilton

Image caption The Mid-Ulster count gets underway in Ballymena

The turnout for the election is the highest since the vote which followed the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.

A total of 64.8% of the electorate voted – up 10 points on last year – beating the 2003 figure by 0.8%.

Mr Nesbitt said the electorate had rejected his message and he had to take responsibility for what happened.

End of the night analysis – BBC News NI’s Political Correspondent Gareth Gordon

This election has produced more than its fair share of storylines. Having lost a number of prominent figures including former deputy leader Danny Kennedy and Jo-Anne Dobson, UUP leader Mike Nesbitt said it would be the height of hypocrisy if he did not take full responsibility. He leaves his party facing an uncertain future.

It has also been a difficult election for the DUP. Party Chairman Lord Morrow and former minister Nelson McCausland are among those who lost their posts.

But it has been a great election for Sinn Féin. Their vote is up almost 4% and they are breathing down the DUP’s neck.

Alliance looks like coming back with its eight seats. For the SDLP, the high points include the come back of its former deputy leader Dolores Kelly in Upper Bann and the surprise success of Pat Catney in Lagan Valley thanks to Ulster Unionist transfers.

Media captionWatch: Mike Nesbitt announces he is resigning as UUP leader

The Ulster Unionist leader is among seven party leaders to be returned.

The others are First Minister and DUP leader Arlene Foster; Sinn Féin’s northern leader Michelle O’Neill; Alliance Party leader Naomi Long; SDLP leader Colum Eastwood; TUV leader Jim Allister and Green Party leader Steven Agnew.

Image copyright Niall Carson

Image caption Michelle O’Neill, Sinn Féin’s Northern leader, celebrates winning her seat

DUP leader Arlene Foster declined several interview requests from the BBC. However, in her acceptance speech, she said the run-up to the election had been “challenging”, but the focus was the future.

“Let us move forward with hope that the common good will be able to prevail over narrow divides of interest; hope that civility can return to our politics; hope that a functioning assembly can be restored and hope that a Northern Ireland with so many overlapping cultural identities can be home to all of us,” she said.

Image copyright PA

Image caption DUP leader Arlene Foster is re-elected in Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Four former ministers – two from the DUP, one from the SDLP and one from the Ulster Unionist party – lost their seats.

The first big shock of the day came when Alex Attwood, SDLP, lost his seat in Belfast West. The second was when Danny Kennedy, UUP, was eliminated in Newry & Armagh – he had been an assembly member since 1998.

Image copyright PAcemaker

Image caption Alliance leader Naomi Long celebrates her success

Later, DUP stalwart Nelson McCausland lost his seat in Belfast North and his party chairman Lord Morrow lost his seat in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

The SDLP suffered a body blow in Foyle – the traditional heartland of the party and former seat of its founder John Hume.

Sinn Féin came home first and second in the count, leaving the SDLP leader Colum Eastwood and Mark H Durkan trailing in their wake.

Media captionFormer MLA Alex Atwood was eliminated in the 2017 count

The party, which once held sway in west Belfast, no longer has a presence there after Mr Attwood’s defeat.

The election – the second in 10 months – was called after the collapse of a coalition led by Arlene Foster’s DUP and Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness.

Image caption Long-standing SDLP assembly member Alex Attwood failed to secure his seat in west Belfast

Mr McGuinness resigned over Mrs Foster’s refusal to step aside as first minister pending an inquiry into the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme, which could cost the Northern Ireland tax payer £490m.

SDLP leader Colum Eastwood said Sinn Féin were the “net beneficiaries” of a huge nationalist turnout intent on punishing Mrs Foster.

Image copyright Tony Hendron

Image caption Danny Kennedy, UUP, prepares to speak to the media following his defeat

Former DUP Minister Jonathan Bell who was suspended from the party for allegedly speaking to the press without permission over the RHI scandal, has also lost his seat.

Under Northern Ireland’s power-sharing agreement, the government must be run by Irish nationalists and unionists together.

Media captionTake a look at how BBC News NI has covered elections over the past 20 years

A total of 1,254,709 people were eligible to vote for 228 candidates competing for 90 seats in 18 constituencies. The turnout was up across the board.

Among the smaller parties, Gerry Carroll, People Before Profit Alliance, kept his Belfast West seat. However, his running mate Michael Collins was eliminated on the first count.

The largest unionist and nationalist parties after the election will have three weeks to form a power-sharing government to avoid devolved power returning to the British parliament at Westminster for the first time in a decade.

Image copyright Liam McBurney

Image caption Sinn Féin’s Niall O Donnghaile, DUP candidate Christopher Stalford and Alliance candidate Emmet McDonough-Brown at the Titanic Belfast count centre

The BBC News NI website will carry the latest election results and analysis on Friday and throughout the weekend.

Image copyright PACEMAKER

Image caption Some dressed up as crocodiles on polling day, in reference to Arlene Foster’s remark likening Sinn Féin to the reptile

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#World News

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