#also they’re new york so the bar was LOW to make playoffs

[linskywords]

1M Words Week: Hallsy/Ebs

Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4 | Day 5 | Day 6 | Day 7

Aaah, I love these two. Here’s an opening of a story I started in the spring of 2018 when Hallsy was having his Hart-winning season. Should really finish this at some point -- that season deserved it!

Note that, of course, this is NOT finished. It would not end here!

It’s just a dumb bet.

Not even a bet. It was just a thing Ebs said once, at the end of their second season together. Whits had gone out and left two six-packs in the fridge, and like, they weren’t going to not make him regret that, and also they’d just missed the playoffs again, so they got super drunk and lay around on the couch talking about Ebs’ thirty-four-goal season.

“It was sick, man, sick,” Taylor kept saying, and Ebs kept laughing and betting Taylor stupid things, like which of them could stack more beer bottles on top of each other, except neither of them could stack any because they were drunk.

“I’ll, like, never score that many goals,” Taylor said, and Ebs, because he was an awesome bro, said, “Yeah, you will, of course you will,” and Taylor said, “But, like, it’s hard,” meaning goals and, like, everything else, and Ebs said, “It’s not hard, you just need the right incentive.”

“What do you mean, incentive?” Taylor asked. Words were hard when you were that drunk.

Ebs rolled an empty beer bottle across the floor toward him. “You know. Incentive. Maybe you don’t have the right one yet. Like…like, you get thirty goals in one season, and I’ll blow you.”

Taylors jaw dropped open. “You would not,” he said after like thirty seconds of not being able to speak.

“’Course not.” And then, just as Taylor’s heart was going back to its normal speed: “’Cause you’ll never get thirty goals,” Ebs said, and he was off, cackling like a maniac.

“Oh, fuck you!” Taylor said, and then they wrestled for a while so that when Whits came home the floor was strewn with empty beer bottles and puddles from the ones they hadn’t quite finished.

So it wasn’t even a real bet. Just a thing Ebs said that one time, when they were practically kids. And, okay, maybe Taylor thought about it a few times in the years after that, like when he was jerking off sometimes, but that was before Ebs moved out to be with Lauren. And then Taylor got traded and Ebs got engaged and Ebs got traded and Ebs got married and everything’s different now.

And then Taylor gets thirty goals.

***

He’s not gonna lie and say it doesn’t go through his head after the game. He’s talking to the media, and it sucks because they lost, but still, thirty goals, that’s awesome, yeah, he’s happy to be able to contribute to the team as much as he can, no, he didn’t quite see himself here last season, but it’s something he’s always wanted—and it crosses his mind, just a blip, that conversation with Ebs. Not enough for him to still be thinking about it a minute later.

He thinks about it again, though, when he gets the text from Ebs. Everyone and their mom is texting him tonight—literally: he hears from Ebs’ mom and Davo’s mom and Nico’s mom and his own, obviously, and Ebs’ text is in the mix, just a WOOOOOT with random emojis that Taylor thinks are probably trying to be vaguely insulting. Then Ebs texts him again that night when he’s going to bed, when everything’s calmed down: we shld have hallsyebs day soon! to celebrate, and Taylor starts typing back something about his schedule, and then it hits him like a bolt of lightning or whatever—what if Ebs remembers?

There’s no way that’s what he’s saying. Ebs isn’t, like, lying in bed with fucking Lauren on the other pillow (the left one; Ebs is always on the right) texting Taylor to meet up for a blow job. Or—on the road; Taylor’s pretty sure the Isles are traveling right now. But still. Taylor’s been on enough road trips with Ebs to know that he doesn’t sneak around. The only times Taylor ever saw Ebs hook up was when he and Lauren were off-again. And maybe there were hookups Taylor didn’t know about—Ebs definitely didn’t know about a whole bunch of his hookups—but Taylor doesn’t think so. Ebs doesn’t like secrets.

So he texts Ebs his availability, even though probably they won’t have time for anything until the off-season anyway. He likes that Ebs wanted to, though. They used to have HallsyEbs days sometimes in Edmonton, after Ebs moved out and they didn’t see each other much outside the rink and Ebs said he didn’t want Taylor to pine for him or whatever so he’d come over and play video games and eat ice cream and other stuff Lauren probably didn’t like as much. Sometimes Ebs would be quiet at first, and Taylor would ask if he and Lauren were fighting, and Ebs would say no. Then after a while he’d tell Taylor all about it: how she wasn’t speaking to him, or how she was really great but he just wasn’t sure, and Taylor would make encouraging noises. Then a few days later he’d show up in the locker room all smiles at tell Taylor that Lauren said to thank him for whatever he’d said, that it had really helped, even though Taylor never said all that much. He was never surprised that Lauren knew they’d talked about it, though. Ebs really hated secrets.

Taylor doesn’t hear as much about their fights this year, if they’re having any. He and Ebs text a lot but it’s mostly about hockey shit. Ebs called him when he got traded, and they were both really excited to be in the same part of the country, but they don’t actually see each other aside from games. NHL schedules.

Which is why Taylor’s not surprised when it turns out they don’t have any overlapping availability before their game against each other on the thirty-first. that super sucks, Ebs texts. But they decide that Ebs will stay over at Taylor’s that night, since the Devils aren’t flying to Montreal until the next day, and Ebs sends him a text that’s ninety percent ice cream emojis. Taylor’s grinning when he falls asleep.

He’s super not expecting anything at all. He and Ebs have hung out after a bunch of games this year, and it’s great to catch up and shit, but it’s also super different. Before when they hung out at a bar or whatever it felt like of like Ebs was an extension of himself: like there were all the other guys, and then there was him and Ebs, operating on a different level. Even after Ebs moved out it felt like that. Now it’s more like a normal friend he doesn’t see very often. Like, it’s Ebs, so it’s still better, but…not the same.

So he’s, like, a little more excited about this time, but not really. Not a lot.

The Devils kill the Isles, obviously, and Ebs looks really bummed but still gives Taylor a patented Ebby hug when they meet up downstairs. Those haven’t changed. Ebs has always been really good at hugging: he, like, makes your body his own and just wraps himself around it and lots of hockey guys are strong but most of them don’t really apply themselves to hugs like Ebby does. Sometimes Taylor thinks Ebs is giving him new bruises, but it’s always worth it.

“Ice cream?” Ebs says, and he sounds really hopeful about it. Like Taylor would ever say no.

“Let me check what’s open,” he says, thumbing at his phone like he didn’t already look.

They end up at a Baskin Robbins that’s walking distance from the arena. “I don’t know, is this safe?” Ebs asks, smirking.

Taylor jostles him with his shoulder. “Newark is, like, just as safe as New York City.”

“Um, I play in Brooklyn,” Ebs says. “I don’t know what you get up to in your big cities. With your drugs and your violence and your—”

“You got checked by two-hundred-pound guys carrying sticks tonight,” Taylor says.

“Yeah, and some of them were you,” Ebs says, narrowing his eyes, and then they’re the ones who are dangers to the passers-by, trying to knock each other down on the sidewalk.

It’s really good. It feels more like old times than it has in a while. Maybe because they’re eating ice cream on dinky little chairs, measuring to see who ended up with more. Ebs gets black raspberry, which is heresy, but he still lets Taylor have a taste. It’s actually not bad.

They’re having such a good time that Taylor doesn’t even think about the thing, which is how it used to be, too: mostly he’d think about Ebs that way when Ebs wasn’t there. It felt safer that way. When he was with Ebs he was busy being with Ebs, and if he wanted to be with him more and in other ways it was easy to squash it down and distract himself with the Ebs who was right in front of him. It was only be later when he was alone that he would shiver and feel sick with how much he wanted the rest of it.

They finish the ice cream before the Baskin Robbins closes at eleven and walk back to Taylor’s car, Ebs asking him if he feels good to drive, he did have a lot of chocolate sprinkles, and Taylor asking him if he’s cold, does he need an extra bunnyhug to put on, and then Ebs trying to dunk him in a trash can. They’re a little quieter in the car: the sugar rush wearing off, the game weariness setting in. Taylor finds his left leg jiggling against the wheel as he drives.

“Guest room made up?” Ebs asks as they go into the condo.

“Yeah,” Taylor says, and maybe it’s the last of the sugar crash, but this weird flat feeling spreads over him: that’s it, end of night. But Ebs doesn’t go into the guest room. He collapses on the living room couch.

Taylor goes over and kicks at his legs a little, and Ebs looks sleepily up at him. “Too tired. Can’t go to bed.”

“Too tired from losing,” Taylor says.

“You got me.” Ebs blinks in a way that really does look tired. Like, he kind of always looks sleepy, but Taylor knows the difference. “You did good,” Ebs says, his voice low.

The words make a little ping inside Taylor. A lot of people have told him he’s done good lately. He had a twenty-eight game point streak—or, okay, twenty-one, if you consult the official NHL stats. He got his team into the playoffs for the first time in his NHL career. He should be used to hearing it. “Yeah?” he says anyway.

Ebs snorts. “Thirty goals. You know you did good.”

“Thirty-five,” Taylor reminds him.

“Yeah, yeah,” Ebs says. “You beat me,” and Taylor suddenly can’t quite look at him, can’t look away, because he’s wondering if Ebs remembers it. That conversation.

“Damn right I did,” he says, words not quite traveling through his brain, because his brain is totally fuzzed out. His brain is focused on how Ebs is sprawled out, how Taylor’s standing in front of him, how if Ebs were to sit up his mouth would be right—

Ebs keeps looking up at him with sleepy eyes. His foot nudges Taylor’s ankle, and the touch fizzes up Taylor’s leg. “You gonna make it to forty?”

His foot is still there, resting against Taylor’s ankle. “We only have four games left.”

“What, not up for it?” Ebs asks, smirking, and Taylor wants to—

It’s been ages since he’s felt like this: so fucked up his nerve endings aren’t connected right and keep sending little shocky bursts all over his body. He wants to fall onto Ebs and kiss the smirk off his lips.

He can feel his face getting hot, because he doesn’t do this anymore, doesn’t feel it like this. Ebs probably doesn’t even notice. His eyes are blinking sleepily, more closed than open.

“You can’t sleep here,” Taylor says. “You’ll fuck up your back.”

Ebs holds his hands out to him, and for a second Taylor thinks—but no, Ebs is asking for a hand up, wants Taylor to pull him to his feet. Taylor does, bracing and feeling his sore muscles stretch themselves a little, and then Ebs is on his feet, his hands warm in Taylor’s for a second before he lets go.

Once he does, he’s still really close, listing a little, eyes at half mast. His face is inches away. Taylor would just have to lean down an inch or two to—

Ebs smacks him in the stomach with the back of his hand. “’Snot as good as our old couch,” he says.

“Obviously not,” Taylor says. His voice sounds funny to his own ears. Kind of low and rough.

“We gotta do this more,” Ebs says. “Make time for it. We’re only like, what, an hour away? Gotta hang out more.”

“Okay,” Taylor says. He doesn’t know if Ebs really means it. Not enough to carry through with it, maybe, when there’s hockey and travel and Lauren. He wants to think he does.

Ebs steps away a few inches and takes some of the heat in the room with him. “Feels like old times,” he says. “Going off to our rooms.”

“Yeah,” Taylor says. It does. He never got what he wanted then, either.

#and then... #i will have to write it to find out #1m words week #taylor hall #jordan eberle #hockey rpf

[racingtoaredlight]

RTARL’s 2020 NFL Season Week 5 Extravapalooza

My 13-year-old nephew was visiting this weekend, and he decided he wanted to become an NFL fan. In his short time on Earth, he’s lived in England, Montana, Georgia, Guam, and Connecticut, so he doesn’t really have strong regional ties anywhere. My brother and I are New Englanders, and since they now live in Connecticut, the Patriots seemed like a logical choice. But, he wasn’t feeling it. He has a fascination with New York City, so I helpfully told him that NYC has TWO teams he could choose from. He was excited, and settled on the Jets. Years from now, when he’s bigger and stronger than me, he will stuff me in a garbage can for setting him down the path of New York Jets fandom, and I will totally deserve it.

BONUS LINK THAT I FOUND INTERESTING: Scoring is way up in the NFL so far in 2020, and this post on 538 tries to figure out both why that is, and which teams benefit the most from this high-scoring and aggressive environment.

My picks are in BOLD, and the lines come to us courtesy of our friends at Vegas Insider. I use the “VI Consensus” line, which is the line that occurs most frequently across Vegas Insider’s list of sportsbooks. Your sportsbook of choice may offer a different number, and if you’d like my opinion on said number A) you are insane, and B) leave a comment below and I’ll try to answer at some point before things kickoff today. 

EARLY GAMES

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

I saw a Smart Football Knower on Twitter saying that the Steelers defensive line leads the NFL in “pass rush win rate,” and that Carson Wentz has been the worst QB in the league when under pressure. That seems less than ideal for Philly, and it’s good enough for me to lay the points here.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-2)

The Packers’ ruthless stomping of the Falcons this past Monday probably choked out any hope and crushed whatever will Atlanta had, and they’re doomed to spend the rest of the season listlessly playing out the string and losing to less-talented squads like Carolina....IS JUST WHAT ATLANTA WANTS YOU TO THINK! I’m not falling for it and neither should you.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5)

Kill them, Patrick. Make them regret they were ever born. It’s crazy that as good as the Chiefs have been, it still feels like they haven’t played at their full planet-destroying potential for a whole game yet. Doing so this week against the hated Raiders would make me a happy man, all because the Raiders have had the audacity to ruin my picks more than any other team over the last couple of seasons. Well, it sure SEEMS like they have, anyway. I suppose I could actually go back and check to see if the numbers bear this out, but that seems like far more work than I’m willing to put in. It’s way easier just to hate them in blissful ignorance.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-5.5)

I’m happy for Texans fans finally being rid of Bill O’Brien, but this team still has issues and I’m gonna need to see drastically improved performance on the field before I raise them above “Trash” in my personal power rankings. Also:

Arizona Cardinals (-7) at New York Jets

The Jets had their own coronavirus scare yesterday when one of their players popped a positive test result. Fortunately, or maybe unfortunately, it turned out to be a false positive, so game on. Allow me to be the 1,000th person to make the joke that Adam Gase purposely tried to infect his team in order to get this game postponed, so that he may live to coach another week.

Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Washington Football Team

It’s COMPLETELY insane that Alex Smith is the #2 QB for Washington in this game. He has drop foot! His leg is made of paper mache!  Alex Smith entering the game to the deafening silence of a fanless stadium and immediately having his leg destroyed again would be the most Washington Football Team thing imaginable. 

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-12.5)

Cincinnati’s 8-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Geno Atkins will be making his season debut in this one, and that should be enough for the Bengals defense to contain Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. Hahahaha, just kidding. This pick is based purely on my potentially misguided faith in super cool new kid Joe Burrow and his ability to put up enough points in garbage time to hit an infuriating backdoor cover. 

LATE GAMES

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-8)

San Francisco is 2-2, they’ve had an absurdly easy schedule so far, and they’ve also been decimated by injuries. Tough to get a read on these fellas. I’m inclined to believe they’ll round into form and make a nice playoff run, but it might take a bit for them to get into rhythm as they reintegrate their returning players. I think the Dolphins are plenty frisky enough to make this a legit scrap.

Indianapolis Colts (PK) at Cleveland Browns

Is it just me or is Indy Phillip Rivers infinitely less charming than San Diego Phillip? I don’t even know why I feel this way, he’s the same loudmouthed redass as before, but the Colt version just seems so bland. Maybe it’s the missing lightning bolts on the helmet/uniform. Those really do add pizazz to everything. Like everyone else, I very much enjoyed the Browns deploying multiple gadget plays in their thrashing of Dallas, but I’m not sure it’s a good sign that they felt the need to bust out so many of them against a truly ghastly Cowboy defense. Baker Mayfield still wasn’t all that great in that game (19-30, 165 yds and 2 TDs), so it’s tough for me to say the Cleveland offense has actually turned any sort of corner, especially with the loss of Nick Chubb.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-8.5)

I assumed this game was gonna be on FOX and I was excited at the prospect of Uber-Crotchety Troy Aikman making an appearance as he finally loses it completely and shits all over a poor Cowboys performance and the NFC East as a whole, but it turns out this is getting the CBS Romo/Nantz treatment. So, now I think we’re gonna get a hefty dose of Gigglin’ Tony as Dak throws for another 450 in a blowout win. Is this sound reasoning for making picks? Absolutely not.

SNF: Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

Once again, the Seahawks find themselves in the game with the highest over/under for the week (56). Giddy up! Vikings QB Kurt Cousins finally showed faint signs of life last week in a win over Houston, and a meeting with Seattle’s worst-in-the-league secondary should fully unleash the dragon. Among a fantastic-looking rookie class of WRs, Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson is quietly emerging as the best of the bunch. GEAUX TIGUHS!

MNF (Early): Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-8)

As of now, the Broncos and Pats are scheduled to kick off at 5:00 PM on Monday night, but this could obviously be derailed by another positive COVID-19 test result from New England (or Denver, I guess). There’s also a question as to whether or not Cam Newton will be allowed to start at QB for the Patriots. Since Cam’s infection has been asymptomatic, he’s allowed to resume playing either A) ten days after his initial positive test or B) five days after his initial test, but with two consecutive negative tests 24-hours apart. Cam tested positive on Oct. 2, and the game is set for Oct. 12. 

This game is off the board at sportsbooks right now, but Vegas Insider pulled that Pats -8 from somewhere, so fuck it I’ll take a crack at it. I’m picking the Broncos to cover based on my assumption that Cam will NOT play, because believe it or not emotionless cyborg Bill Belichick has been one of the more progressive coaches at any level of football in terms of taking COVID-19 seriously. Low bar to clear, but still. 

UPDATE: This game has now been postponed as another Patriot has tested positive for COVID-19.

MNF (Late): Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-8)

The Saints appear to be getting healthier, with WR Michael Thomas, TE Jared Cook, CB Marshon Lattimore, offensive linemen Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk, defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and Trey Hendrickson, and safety Malcolm Jenkins all returning to practice, albeit in limited fashion. But, the Justin Herbert-led Chargers have lost their three games by a combined 15 points, and they’ve looked extremely feisty each week, including decent stretches where they were in control against both the mighty Chiefs and championship-contender Buccaneers. Eight points is too many, in my opinion. Have I mentioned that I love Justin Herbert? What a dreamboat.

Tuesday: Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans

Much like the Patriots/Broncos game, this game isn’t being offered at sportsbooks as of right now. But, in my relentless commitment to consequence-free handicapping with no discernible benefit to me personally, I’m gonna pick it using the Vegas Insider line provided. 

It’s a real shame the coronavirus has turned this game into such a redheaded stepchild, because it’s a seriously tasty matchup. The Bills are on track to welcome excellent CB Tre’Davious White back, which is great news for a defense that’s been much shittier than expected so far. Tennessee’s best WR A.J. Brown is still listed as Questionable with a knee injury after missing the Titans’ last game (Week 3), and on top of that WRs Corey Davis and Adam Humphries are question marks due to testing positive for COVID-19. Not great! But, the Titans do still have Derrick Henry and a great offensive line, and as I mentioned before the Bills D has been butt so far this season. I think the Titans will still be able to move the ball effectively and eat up clock even with their potentially depleted pass-catching corps. Dare I say we’re in for some SMASH-MOUTH FOOTBALL?! Somewhere, John Madden just used a marker to telestrate a Halfback Dive on the nearest wall. BOOM!

Now for some stupid jokes! Hey, how ‘bout this Titans team holding outlaw practices and keeping their in-house plague going? More like TENNESSEE TYPHOIDS, amiright? If this game is canceled due to another positive test by Tennessee, you can always get your football fix by watching the classic film Remdesivir the Titans!

*thanks to Gov. Mike Huckabeav for helping me with that last paragraph

UPDATE: Another member of the Titans organization has tested positive, and their facilities have been closed down once again. This game seems perilously close to being postponed/canceled. Son of a bitch.

Last Week’s Record: 4-7-2

Season Record: 30-25-4

#Sports! #Football #NFL #Gambling

[carolineasweet-blog]

Friday, October 9, 2015 (Day 1)

I feel like such a fucking idiot. I was still celebrating my birthday, because you get to do that once you’ve crossed over into your thirties, have a whole week. But I feel so fucking dumb, for being hungover and for answering the phone that way. At 10:15 in the morning, when mom calls, I always assume it’s about money - me using her credit card. I feel dumb for that too. I’m 31. I answered the phone blurting out, “Mom, I will transfer the money back into your account ASAP.” It wasn’t about that. 

“That’s great sweetie, but listen... I’m in the hospital in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Everyone is alive.” It always feels like a backhanded compliment when she starts with that. She’s trying to tell me everything’s OK, but she wouldn’t be in Michigan if everything is ok. My brain was racing a mile a minute. Dad is in Michigan, but she should be home. And he was in Northern Michigan... why is she is Grand Rapids?

My parents live in Indiana. My dad had been on an annual fishing trip with his brother in Northern Michigan - the middle of nowhere - four hours from Grand Rapids. He loved fishing. He was out on river, smoking pot, hanging with his little brother he sees maybe once/twice a year, and doing his favorite meditation, fly-fishing. He was completely himself, relaxed, and lost in it when he was on his fly-fishing trips. So it never really bothered my when every year on October 5th, he forgot to call me on my birthday. He would usually get to me by the 7th, if not the 6th. “I told him to call you,” my mother said late that Monday night of the 5th. “It’s OK,” I said. I knew how much these trips meant to him, and I also knew how off-the-grid you can get in Northern Michigan. He needed an escape from being the General Counsel for a very large public school system in Indiana. He loved his job, but I know he cared so much about it, that he didn’t always leave it at the office.

I truly wasn’t upset about the missing birthday text. For my 30th last year, I flew from my home in LA to my sister’s in New York where she threw me a surprise party and asked all my friends to write entries in a memory book for me. A friend asked me if I had read my Dad’s. He missed the party, of course, fly-fishing. But he had written an entry before he left. “Your dad wrote the sweetest thing,” my high school friend Chelsea said. I hadn’t read it. Compliments can make me feel uncomfortable, like some day they will all realize I’ve duped everyone, and I am not that nice or that smart. Or, worse, that they felt forced to say nice things because it’s my 30th birthday. I haven’t read the book from last year. Any of it. I’ll read my dad’s, I will find out some day what “sweetest” thing he said about me on some particularly low day when I feel like I deserve it. God, that sounds fucked up, but it’s true. Or maybe I will read it on a particularly good day so it resonates and doesn’t make me doubt it. I know my dad loves me. I don’t need to read it to know. Or to get a text to know.

“Your father had a brain bleed.”

Those words didn’t compute.

“It’s a stroke.”

“Don’t panic, but I knew you would be upset if I didn’t tell you.” Why do parents do that, by the way? Once you leave home and you don’t see them on the day-to-day, they hide little secrets from you about how their bodies are actually falling apart. ‘Oh, I had a little skin cancer removed... Oh yeah, your father had surgery on his knee,’ like they’re afraid we’ll worry too much or can’t handle it. Or, better yet, that they’re actually on the path to dying and they can’t handle telling us.

“I’m with your father now. He’s fine. He’s talking, he’s complaining,” she laughed, and I could hear him annoyed in the background. It can’t be that bad if she’s talking to him, right?

“He’s alert and seems to be fine. They want to wait 12 hours to see if the brain bleed goes down on its own, I guess that’s what you do with strokes like this. They will do another CT Scan tonight. It’s fine,” my mother assured me, “he’s normal. I just knew you would be mad if this happened and we never told you about it. But it’s not anything to worry about.”

According to my uncle’s recount to my mother, he woke up that morning feeling “off” and decided to cancel fishing for that day, something he never did. Ever. My dad and uncle had the same fishing guide for 20 years, and he, too, knew something about this wasn’t right. He happened to be guiding an ER surgeon that weekend as well and called the ER surgeon to relay my dad’s “off” symptoms. The ER surgeon told him to go to the hospital immediately, so my uncle, the fishing guide and dad all showed up this tiny ER in the middle of nowhere. They did a CT scan, could see something, and knew they weren’t a large enough hospital to handle whatever this was. My uncle called my mom - “They want to know whether to send him up to Traverse City or down to Grand Rapids?” Traverse City was only an hour away while Grand Rapids was almost four. “Take him to the best,” she said. And by ambulance, he went the longer route to Grand Rapids where my mom met him - where “everything was fine.” You don’t go four hours by ambulance if it’s fine. Do you?

My mom believed this was not a big deal, or at least she presented it that way, and I wanted to believe it too.

I hung up the phone. I held back tears as I showered and got ready for my commercial audition. Commercial auditions... the place to be perky, friendly, and approachable. I want to throw up. 

But I have to go to this fucking audition. I rarely get them, and I’m normally grateful. But this feels weird. And it’s for a housewife. A “midwestern mom type.” Cool. I put on my makeup and drive to the audition in a weird haze. The streets look the same, but I am off. I played the part of happy wife cooking a meal for my happy family, and I nailed it. As my family at home was starting to fall apart, my 30 second fake family was just perfect. “Honey, add one cup of milk, not a half cup!” I beamed. I’ve never been more Stepford in my fucking life. It’s all fine! Everything is fine!

“Shit that was fun,” my “husband” said after we left the room. “So fun!” I chirped back while running to my car. I could feel the tears welling. I could feel the adrenaline wearing off. Everything was not fine, and my gut knew it. The second I shut my car door on Wilshire Boulevard, I lost it. In a metered spot, as cars whisked past, I heaved sobs. I smeared all my camera-ready, perfect mom makeup. I ugly cried. And then I laughed. I couldn’t help it. He was in the hospital, getting treatment, and I didn’t even know what the CT scan that night would show. This was fucking ridiculous! You can’t be sad about something you don’t even know yet. 

I pulled myself together and met my friends at a bar to watch the world series playoff games. I needed something to take my mind off the impending CT scan results, and nothing is better than a bunch of drunk bros at a sports bar watching a playoff game. As people cheered around me, knocking over beers and high-fiving each other, I felt my phone vibrate.

...

I did get a birthday text on October 7th - two days after my birthday and two days before whatever this thing is we’re now in. 

[truesportsfan]

Winners and losers of the 2020 NHL trade deadline

The 2020 NHL Trade Deadline has come and gone. Which teams came out as the winners and the losers of this season’s deadline?

Who said this years trade deadline was going to be boring?

Over the past few years, the NHL trade deadline has usually been disappointing. This year however, was not the case. There were 32 trades on trade deadline day this year, crushing every other deadline from the last decade. The story for the most part remained the same. Buyers spent future assets in order to win a Stanley Cup now, while the sellers looked build their teams for the future.

Plenty of teams made moves in order to bolster their chances at a Stanley Cup or build a foundation for the future, however some teams did much better than others. Which ones came out as the winners and losers of this season’s trade deadline? Let’s take a look.

Photo by Paul Bereswill/Getty Images

Winners

Pittsburgh Penguins

Being a Penguins fan must be the best feeling in the world. Once again they are going all-in at a chance at a Stanley Cup, this time making a trade with the Minnesota Wild to acquire Jason Zucker. The price they had to pay was a bit expensive, giving up one of their best prospects in Calen Addison and their first-round pick, but where the Penguins championship window is right now, that’s a price they will no qualms paying in order to win a fourth Stanley Cup in the Crosby-Malkin era. Better yet, Zucker is under contract for three more years after this season.

The Penguins also added to their offense with two more trades on deadline day. They brought in Patrick Marleau to give him one last chance at a Stanley Cup in exchange for a third round pick to bolster their scoring depth. Conor Sheary is also back in town, as he and Evan Rodrigues were packaged in a deal for Dominik Kahun.

Since the Zucker trade, they have placed him on the top line with Crosby, and it’s been a perfect fit. The Penguins have already stormed back to battle with the Washington Capitals for the division lead. Though they have lost four straight heading into the deadline, a team this good won’t stay down for long, and nobody will want any part of them in the playoffs.

New Jersey Devils

This season has been one failure after another for New Jersey, After the firing of Ray Shero in January, expectations for the Devils at the trade deadline were low after already dealing Taylor Hall. However, interim GM Tom Fitzgerald went wheeling and dealing leading up to the deadline, and set up his team wonderfully for the future.

Andy Greene was the first one traded, as he was sent to the the New York Islanders for a second-round pick in 2021 and David Quenneville. Greene was the captain in New Jersey, but that level of return for a 37-year-old on his last legs is borderline wizardry from Fitzgerald. In the same day, Blake Coleman was traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning for a monstrous return including the Vancouver Canucks first-round pick and Nolan Foote, which arguably a better return than they got for Taylor Hall in December.

On deadline day, New Jersey moved Wayne Simmonds to Buffalo for a 2021 conditional fifth-round pick. Then right at the buzzer, Sami Vatanen was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes, but had the return stifled due to Vatanen being out until early March.

The Devils now potentially have three first-round picks in the stacked 2020 NHL draft, and their search for another general manager looks to be over after the solid moves Fitzgerald made. Even though the expectation of making the playoffs crashed and burned, this deadline has been a pretty nice consolation prize.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers finally went out and got the depth that the team has been needing for years. The trade for Andreas Athanasiou finally gives Connor McDavid a winger that can not only keep up with him, but is almost just as fast. Those two on the ice at the same time is going to be an unmitigated nightmare for defenses across the league. With McDavid and Draisaitl running their own lines with talented wingers, they might both reach new heights that might’ve never seemed possible.

The additions of Mike Green and Tyler Ennis are also fantastic depth pickups, and can help push some of talent down the roster as well. Edmonton managed to hang onto their first round pick too, which is something that Holland stressed before the deadline. All around, a just about perfect deadline for an Oilers that’s needed all the depth it could get for a long time now.

Ilya Kovalchuk

Alex Ovechkin and Ilya Kovalchuk are going to play on the same team. That alone makes this a win for every NHL fan. It may be a decade too late, but it’s still two of the best Russian hockey players of all time getting together for a chance at a Stanley Cup. Considering where Kovalchuk was at the start of the season in Los Angeles, it’s amazing that everything was worked out this well for him. Now he has the chance he’s always wanted by playing for a Stanley Cup contender, but also with his best friend.

As for the Capitals themselves, there is no problem to be had with the adding Kovalchuk at the deadline. It’s essentially a no-risk depth move to help inject some offense into the Capitals’ bottom-six forward group. With the Canadiens retaining 50 percent of Kovalchuk’s salary, he only costs $350,000 against the salary cap, which as small a cap hit you can possibly get. Even if Kovalchuk is a total bust in Washington, he’s on a two-way contract, and can be sent to the minors without waivers.

Carolina Hurricanes

I think the argument can start to be made that Don Waddell is one of the best general managers in the NHL. The Carolina Hurricanes came out of the trade deadline as not just a winner, but The Winner. Acquiring Vincent Trocheck from Florida finally got them the center depth that they’ve needed on offense for some time now, and took advantage of his down season to pry him out of Florida for a reasonable price. For the next three seasons, their center depth looks like Sebastian Aho, Trocheck, and Jordan Staal. That’s the kind of depth that can bring home a Stanley Cup.

Adding Sami Vatanen and Brady Skjei were also great pickups on defense with Dougie Hamilton out for the season. It took a first-rounder to pry a long-struggling Skjei from the Rangers, but if he thrives under a new system, that will turn into a bargain with his contract still having four seasons left. Even with all these moves, the Hurricanes still have five picks in the first three rounds of the draft.

Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Losers

Florida Panthers

The Florida Panthers are clearly sick of not getting results and still being on the outside of the playoffs, and now they’re starting to make emotional moves in order to just get something done. Trading Vincent Trocheck, who’s been having a great year everywhere except in the point totals, was an awful idea. Sure they got an alright return, but they gave up the far and away best player in the deal when the goal is to make the playoffs right now. Not to mention that it’s not at all Trocheck’s fault that the Panthers are struggling, it’s Sergei Bobrovsky who hasn’t been able to stop a beach ball for most of the season, despite getting paid $10 million a season for the next seven years.

If the Panthers do end up missing the playoffs once again this year, Dale Tallon in all likelihood will be out of a job, and at this point it’ll be justified. He’s had plenty of opportunity to build a playoff team, but these moves are just not working. This Trocheck trade is just another example of that.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost a professional hockey game to a 42-year-old zamboni driver who works for their minor league team. Then they didn’t do anything of note at the trade deadline besides some minor league deals and retaining 50 percent of Robin Lehner‘s salary for a fifth-round pick. What Toronto needed was some kind of jolt, but there are seemingly no repercussions for one of the most embarrassing losses in franchise history

They extended Jake Muzzin for four years, but that was going to happen regardless. Tyson Barrie is now free to walk away for nothing at the end of the season, and they’re no stronger as the playoff race gets tighter and tighter.

Will they make the playoffs? Maybe. Are they going to get past Boston or Tampa Bay in round one? Maybe, but it would take a miracle with the way this team plays. Missing the playoffs or a fourth straight first round exit will require a massive shakeup in the offseason, because this group has not proved that they can get it done once.

Buffalo Sabres

Apparently Buffalo thinks that they’re still playoff contenders? That’s only explanation I can think of for refusing to sell and trading for Wayne Simmonds at the deadline. Though according to any basic common sense or prediction model, the Sabres need both a perfect run down the stretch and an unparalleled amount of luck to sneak into that third spot in the Atlantic.

Simmonds isn’t even the kind of player that can carry a team to a playoff spot. They paid next to nothing to get him, but that’s not the point and he’s a perfectly fine complimentary piece, but that’s not what the Sabres need right now. They still need a second-line center of the future, and this team is clearly not ready for any sort of playoff competition, even if they do luck their way in.

Sabres fans are sick of this team right now, and understandably so. They’ve given so much to this franchise and they deserve so much better. Simmonds is not taking them to the playoffs, and now they have five pending unrestricted free agents that can all just walk for nothing. Barring a miracle, Jason Botterill is likely one of the next general managers on the unemployment line.

Joe Thornton

While Patrick Marleau and Ilya Kovalchuk will be chasing their chance at a Stanley Cup, Joe Thornton will be sitting on the sidelines once the playoffs roll around as the Sharks couldn’t work out a trade in time before the deadline.

Thornton signed a one-year contract at the beginning of the season in order to chase one last chance at a Stanley Cup with the San Jose Sharks. But this Sharks season has sunk like a rock right from the start, and have been well out of the playoff race for months. If Thornton wanted to win a Stanley Cup, it wouldn’t be on San Jose anymore. The decision was rumored to be entirely up to him, and it seems that he decided to go to a contender.

The Sharks were able to work a trade to send Marleau to Pittsburgh, a trade to Dallas fell through for Thornton, and he was left on the bottoming out Sharks with no hope of a Stanley Cup maybe ever again. If this is the end of Thornton’s career, it’s a shame that it had to fizzle out with a whimper.

The entire Central Division

So much for the Central Division arms race at the deadline. Between all three of the Stanley Cup contenders in Central, there was only two moves made the entire month that can be considered upgrades.

After months of rumors that the Blues were serious about a repeat and were in on the likes of Taylor Hall and Chris Kreider, they ended up standing pat, only adding Marco Scandella to the defense. The Avalanche had tons of cap space and plenty of assets, yet only acquired Vladislav Namestnikov on deadline day, potentially squandering such a rare opportunity. The Dallas Stars just did nothing at all, despite being rumored to be after Joe Thornton.

In the playoff hunt, the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets barely tweaked around the edges, and committed to neither buying or selling at such an important time. Nashville had valuable upcoming free agents, but if they’re serious about the playoffs, then some kind of move to find some consistency would’ve been appreciated. Winnipeg made depth moves for Dylan DeMelo and Cody Eakin, but their defense is still the worst in the league.

But the biggest loser of perhaps the entire trade deadline was the Chicago Blackhawks. They traded Robin Lehner to the Vegas Golden Knights for such a minuscule haul, that you wonder what the point even was? Especially since Lehner offered to take a discount on a three-year contract.

Next: Grading every NHL team’s 2020 trade deadline deals

Follow FanSided NHL for more news, analysis, opinion and unique coverage about hockey in all forms throughout the entire 2019-20 NHL season and beyond.

source https://truesportsfan.com/sport-today/winners-and-losers-of-the-2020-nhl-trade-deadline/

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Updates on Perron and Grzelcyk; Kravtsov; Ristolainen; Heponiemi; Robert Thomas – March 13

  It’s that time of year where guys who are property of a franchise, be it in college or overseas, start making their way to the NHL to get some games in. We already saw Quinn Hughes, Vancouver’s first rounder from last year, sign with the team. One guy dynasty owners were hoping for was Vitali Kravtsov, the 19-year old Rangers first rounder from the same draft. It appears that his KHL team will not terminate his contract, allowing him to join New York this season. Rangers fans and fantasy owners are going to have to wait until next season to possibly see him in the lineup.

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I know people like to make fun of Rasmus Ristolainen in the real world (and for good reason), but in fantasy, almost no player has been more consistent. Sitting at 39 points on Tuesday afternoon, Risto needs one more to make it four consecutive seasons with 40 points, 2+ shots per game, 100 hits, and 100 blocks. It would also be two consecutive years with 40 points, 2+ shots per game, 200 hits, and 100 blocks. The plus/minus, as it always has been, is a huge concern, but there’s enough everywhere else to more than make up for it. It’s just another solid fantasy campaign for the 24-year old blue liner.

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Yesterday in these Ramblings I said I was disappointed with the play of the Stars this year, or at least the way the coach has them playing. All the same, I’m happy to see Roope Hintz get an extended look on the top line. He’s been there for about a month now and considering how often this lineup has changed over the course of the season, that’s a borderline miracle. He only has 6 points in his last 16 games but that they’re giving him such a leash means they’re seeing something beyond just production. This could be good news for him in 2019-20.

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On the topic of the Stars:

  Posts/Crossbars leaders, all situations this year:

14 Seguin 13 McDavid 12 Eichel, Saad, Zibanejad 11 Gaudreau, Kucherov 10 Kadri, Ovechkin 9 Laine, Pacioretty 8 Just a ton of dudes

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) March 12, 2019

  Seguin needs three goals to crack the 30-goal plateau for the fifth time in six seasons with the Stars, and there’s a good argument that he should be there already. He’s also on pace for 70-plus points for the sixth consecutive season. He’s just a flat-out stud.

Another name of interest on that list is Brandon Saad. I was a big believer in his rebound from last year and he’s currently sitting with 22 goals and should probably have more. Assists are a problem and the lack of PP production, as it has been for most of his career, is an ongoing issue. He’s still a very good five-on-five player, though even I’ll admit that at this point he’s a better real-world player than fantasy option.

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David Perron didn’t suit up for the Blues on Tuesday night as he’s still recovering from a concussion. It appears he’s on the mend, but we know how fickle concussions are, and someone with Perron’s history has to be extra careful. It’ll be nice to see him back in the lineup at some point but his long-term health is paramount right now.

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The Bruins say defenceman Matt Grzelcyk is undergoing an MRI to determine the extent of his injury. He had been having a very solid year here in his second full season, helping the Bruins drive the play forward, being a good starting point for their attack. As long as this isn’t too severe, I hope he gets back in time for playoffs. Not that he’s a key cog because they do have guys like Krug, McAvoy, and Moore, but having more good puck-moving defencemen is never a bad thing.

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There was a good Ramblings over at Dobber Prospects a couple days ago from Jokke Nevalainen discussing, among many other things, Kaapo Kakko and Aleksi Heponiemi. That second name seems to be a forgotten prospect to some people as Henrik Borgstrom solidifies himself with the Panthers, but as Jokke points, out, Heponiemi is among the Liiga scoring leaders and just turned 20 in January. This has been a spectacular season for him and if he can crack the roster in October, could go a long way in lengthening the lineup and making Florida even more dangerous offensively. There are a lot of bridges to cross between now and then but it’s still a very solid effort from the young Finn.

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While I was researching some stuff on Robert Thomas (that’s below), I came across this little nugget: among 295 forwards with at least 600 minutes at five-on-five, Ryan Kesler is last in points/60 minutes. Not last on the Ducks, last in the league.

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After falling behind 2-0, Pittsburgh reeled off four straight goals to beat Washington 4-3. Two of those Penguins goals were assisted by Evgeni Malkin, giving him 1000 points for his career. Since entering the league, Malkin trails only Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby in points, and Crosby in points per game. With one MVP, two scoring titles, and three Stanley Cups (so far), Malkin will be… walkin… to the Hall of Fame when his career is over. I remember a time he wasn’t listed as a top-100 player in the history of the NHL.

Pittsburgh’s top line did a lot of the damage as Jake Guentzel potted one goal, as did Jared McCann, while Crosby scored two. Those two goals gave Pittsburgh’s captain 90 points on the year, the first time he’s managed 90 points since 2013-14. Scoring is up across the league but getting to 100 points is well within reach. He should be in the conversation for MVP.

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Columbus let Boston back in the game but eventually took a 7-4 win from the Bruins. The newly-formed line of Ryan Dzingel, Matt Duchene, and Josh Anderson as they had one goal and two assists, one goal, and one goal and three assists, respectively. I imagine we see that trio get some run over the last four weeks of the season.

Boone Jenner had a hat trick, finishing the deed with under a minute left and an empty net. He also had three blocks, two penalty minutes, and a hit to complete a very good fantasy evening. Jenner also needs just one more point to reach the 40-point bar for the first time in three years.

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More updates in the morning.

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There have been injuries to the top line all year in St. Louis, be it Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn, or more recently Vladimir Tarasenko. The most recent injury has pushed rookie Robert Thomas to the top line and that is a very cushy assignment, obviously. It’s one that if everything goes well, could tip the balance of some head-to-head playoff matchups this week. I thought it would be worth diving into his rookie season.

You can click on Thomas’s name above to read his Dobber Prospects profile to see what our writers have been saying about him since he was drafted nearly two years ago.

From the outset of the season, we had good reason to believe Thomas would be a featured player on this roster this season. Remember that there was talk at the start of the year of leaving Schwartz-Schenn-Tarasenko together and then having Thomas centre the second line with Ryan O’Reilly on his wing. The Blues flopped out of the gate and lines were a mess basically until Craig Berube was hired as the head coach.

At time of writing, Thomas has amassed 25 points in 56 games this year. That may not seem spectacular, but he’s averaged just 12:38 per contest in those 56 games. His points per 60 minutes at five-on-five sits at 1.77, just ahead of Schwartz on the Blues. League-wide, he’s tied for 143rd out of 295 forwards with at least 600 minutes. He’s tied, by the way, with Josh Anderson and James van Riemsdyk, the former a surging young star, the latter an established one. Not bad company.

The worrying point is the shooting. I say that because as I mentioned yesterday in my Ramblings, guys who don’t shoot tend to not have a lot of fantasy value in multi-cat leagues. Out of those same 295 forwards with 600 minutes at five-on-five, Thomas is 290th in shot attempts per 60 minutes. That’s lower than notorious non-shooters Travis Zajac and Valtteri Filppula. He’s not very far ahead of Joe Thornton, either. Thomas’s player profile has always been that of a two-way playmaking centre, so goal scoring was not something we should really expect from him in droves. All the same, unless he turns into an elite playmaker like Thornton or Nicklas Backstrom, it’ll be hard for Thomas to be a coveted fantasy option down the road. He’s still a teenage rookie, of course, but shooting so little – and that’s important to keep in mind: it’s not a low shot rate, it’s an abysmal one – is a concern.

There are also his line mates to consider. By far his most common line (per Dobber Tools) was with Patrick Maroon and Tyler Bozak, and the next-most common is with MacKenzie McEachern and Ivan Barbashev. That Thomas has produced as well as he has with the line mates he has is impressive. None of the guys listed are big goal scorers, Maroon being the closest and he’s had a good year if he can manage 20 goals, which doesn’t mesh well with Thomas’s skills. He doesn’t need a playmaker as his centre, he needs a guy who can finish. Playing him with Barbashev, a guy who shoots less often than Thomas does, seems like a waste.

Finally, just watching Thomas, he never stands out. That’s not really a bad thing, either. His new centre, Ryan O’Reilly, is one of the best centres in the league and often doesn’t do anything that stands out to the eye. Thomas seems sound positionally, is always aware of his assignments, and seems to be able to be one or two steps ahead with the puck in the offensive zone. That combination will serve him very well moving forward.

As far as his fantasy ceiling goes, unless Thomas drastically changes his game, it won’t be high outside of points-only leagues. Again, guys who shoot with such infrequency rarely have significant fantasy value in multi-cat leagues. It may be one of those situations where three years from now, Thomas is a much better real-world player than a fantasy one (think of Mikael Backlund). I’m sure the Blues and their fans would be happy with that, but fantasy owners likely will not be.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-updates-on-perron-and-grzelcyk-kravtsov-ristolainen-heponiemi-robert-thomas-march-13/

[flauntpage]

The Outlet Pass: Charlotte's Tailspin, Cavs Trade Targets, and NBA What-Ifs

1. Can Charlotte Turn Things Around?

The Charlotte Hornets are stuck in an injury-induced tailspin. They’ve dropped eight of their last 10 games, including two straight at home against the Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls. Their head coach is out with a health issue (get well soon, Steve Clifford) and they’re four games back of a playoff spot, with four teams—the Orlando Magic, New York Knicks, Miami Heat, and Brooklyn Nets—standing in their way.

At one point last week they went to their bench and I literally didn’t know the first names of two players on the court. Michael Carter-Williams is making Marcus Smart look like Glen Rice and Malik Monk is barely in the rotation while Donovan Mitchell (the next guard selected) is averaging 27.2 points per game in December.

Charlotte's starting five is fine when everybody’s healthy but they've only played Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams, Dwight Howard, and Jeremy Lamb together for seven minutes all season. Normally, they are stuck with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on the floor, dragging the offense down. Just look at how disrespectful the Thunder are to MKG in the play below.

Kidd-Gilchrist isn’t fooling anyone from deep, but he’s now a modestly-reliable safety valve from 15 feet and in. The Hornets are rushing to execute a 2-for-1 on this particular sequence, but it’s still jarring to see an NBA starter find himself SO open and not come close to touching the ball.

Their primary Batum + Bench unit was doing pretty well before Cody Zeller had knee surgery, though, partially because Lamb was in it. When Dwayne Bacon replaces Kidd-Gilchrist in the starting lineup they destroy people.

Ultimately, it all comes down to the Hornets just not being very good when Walker isn’t in the game. According to Cleaning the Glass, Charlotte is 22.1 points per 100 possessions better with Walker on the floor. Even if Batum is the de-facto primary ball-handler, their offense is stagnant and averages less than one point per possession. That’s so bad, but everything goes to hell when they’re both out. (The starting five is okay, but not crushing opponents enough to justify heavy minutes together while the bench can’t fend for itself.)

In what almost felt like season-saving victory against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night, interim head coach Stephen Silas stretched Walker and Lamb’s playing time into a 15.5-minute stint to open the second half. In his eyes, Charlotte’s bench was a Rob Zombie-directed blood bath. Slaughter would commence the second he switched up his backcourt.

Silas knew Charlotte needed that game. For extending his starters, he was rewarded with ridiculous, completely unsustainable shot making against a defense that sorely missed Andre Roberson (I think Alex Abrines just fouled another three-point shooter). But a win is a win is a win.

With their upcoming schedule providing zero seconds to exhale, the Hornets will either get healthy, tinker with the rotation and stop their ship from sinking, or face some difficult questions before the trade deadline. (‘Does anyone want the $76 million left on Batum’s contract? How about the $29 million owed to Marvin Williams?’ or, ‘Can we please for the love of God find a backup point guard?’)

Barring a significant transaction, next year’s roster will look about the same as this one, plus whoever they get in the draft. But whether or not this team views itself as a buyer or a seller is another relevant discussion. The Hornets have enough talent to make the playoffs and even win a few games once they get in (or even an entire series if they can somehow grab the sixth seed).

Rebuilding won’t be easy with this cap sheet, and Walker is smack dab in the middle of his prime. If Monk doesn’t make rapid progress from here on out, do they think about dealing him and/or their first-round pick in the 2018 draft for immediate help? Injuries stink and so does bad luck, but the Hornets aren’t as rudderless as they currently feel. We’ll know even more about the direction they should head as the next couple months unfold.

2. This Year’s NBA What-Ifs Are Pretty Great

This season has been filled with a handful of shocking developments. After a possible career-altering injury to their best all-around player, the Boston Celtics are very good. With their entire roster 100 percent healthy (relatively speaking), the Oklahoma City Thunder are not very good. The Indiana Pacers are good. The Miami Heat are bad. The Portland Trail Blazers are Stranger Things Season 3.

Based on reports and rumors from various points throughout the offseason, here’s a semi-educated look at how things might look today had a few key moves gone down a bit differently.

A. Carmelo Anthony is traded to the Portland Trail Blazers

For the sake of argument, let’s just say Portland gave up Evan Turner, Mo Harkless, and a future first-round pick. So, in all likelihood, the Blazers would start Melo at the three, Al-Farouq Aminu at the four, and Jusif Nurkic at center. That starting five looks offensively unstoppable on paper, but, like, so does Oklahoma City's. Make this trade and what happens to Portland's top-five defense? Are they still rebounding this well? Do they score at will or does Anthony further impede what’s been an unusually static offense?

Photo by Joseph Weiser-USA TODAY Sports

In addition to transforming into a gigantic whoopee cushion whenever he's around the basket—Melo’s days of getting to the free-throw line are, at 33 years old, understandably dunzo—his assist to usage ratio ranks in the ninth percentile at his position. Even though the percentage of his shots that are unassisted hasn’t been this low since he was with the Denver Nuggets (which feels 7,000 years ago), he still loves long twos and there are defiant insecurities related to how he’s approached the seasons' first couple months. His stubbornness has contributed to the league’s most glaring disappointment, and he’s shooting 37.6 percent from the floor over the Thunder's last 10 games.

Would things be different in Portland? Would Anthony play better off C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, next to role players who won’t clog the floor and know how to pass? The stakes would be pretty low; Portland would remain unable to circumvent its own flaws and triumphantly battle through a ruthless playoff bracket. But they might be incrementally better than they are now, guaranteed a spot in the postseason, with pleasant vibes carrying them forward.

The other key side effect, assuming every other move happens as it has, is that Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott would still be on the Thunder instead of enjoying Westbrook-free serenity in midtown Manhattan. How would Anthony being in Portland affect Paul George in Oklahoma? Besides more shot opportunities, it’s hard to say. Assuming Billy Donovan chose to stagger his two best players, George would have more time on units that’d call for him to be one of the dozen best players in the world. The team's defense might be even better than it already is.

Westbrook could also spend more time going Full Westbrook, even though Full Westbrook as we knew it last year might be a permanent thing of the past.

B. Gordon Hayward signs with the Miami Heat

Would Kyrie Irving express interest in re-signing with the Boston Celtics if Hayward chose a different team, or were Al Horford’s harmonious style, stable ownership, and Brad Stevens' genius already enough? If not, the Celtics would likely be in the middle of the Eastern Conference with Marcus Smart starting at point guard and Terry Rozier playing 30 minutes a night. They'd disintegrate when Horford hit the bench, and any long-term injury that'd keep him out would be fatal. Also, Jae Crowder would still be around, likely clogging a pipeline that's seen Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown flourish.

If Hayward is healthy, what does Miami’s roster look like? (WHERE IS KELLY OLYNYK?!?) Is Miami better than it is right now or would Hayward struggle within the cramped confines of a Hassan Whiteside-Justise Winslow frontcourt? Even if they didn’t want to re-sign James Johnson or Dion Waiters with Hayward in tow, the Heat might still turn to decreasingly unconventional means, perhaps permanently plopping the one-time All-Star at the four, and having guards like Goran Dragic and Wayne Ellington set ball screens for him 35 feet from the basket.

C. Paul George is traded to the Boston Celtics

Things have so far worked out fine in Boston, but let me crawl out on a limb and declare that this team would be really freaking good if they somehow had Paul George, healthy Hayward, Irving, and Horford on the same team. Sub George for Tatum right now and they’re (maybe but not definitely) a better regular-season team. Their ceiling elevates on both ends in the postseason.

The more important ripple effect here is with Westbrook and the Thunder. Does he sign his extension or demand a trade? What does professional basketball in Oklahoma City even look like? And where are the Indiana Pacers? They don’t have Victor Oladipo (a hipster’s MVP candidate if there ever was one) or Domantas Sabonis. Their optimism would instead spout from Tatum’s magical touch and any other assets Kevin Pritchard could pry from Danny Ainge.

Even though this exercise is purely hypothetical, I’m far too lazy to trace imaginary steps and figure out what Boston’s roster would actually look like, but if the Celtics’ starting five somehow had four All-Stars and Jaylen Brown, um, that team would probably go to the Finals.

3. So, Who Isn’t Shooting Threes?

The highly scientific requirements to answer this question are such: A) a player has to launch no more than one three per game, B) he must average at least 12 minutes, and C) he needs to have appeared in at least 20 games. Here are the 49 players who qualify.

If you hold those benchmarks up against last season (and raise the minimum number of games to 55) that number rises by 12 players. Five years ago that same list had 99 players on it. For those counting at home, with my admittedly arbitrary qualifiers, that means the number of players (who actually play) who don’t use the three-point line is about half what it was during LeBron James’ third season in Miami—hard evidence of a revolution that’s been identified in real time.

Photo by Shanna Lockwood - USA TODAY Sports

Let’s go back to this year’s group, which reads like an endangered species list. How many players on there are useful despite their inability/unwillingness to shoot threes? If we first look at total minutes played, Ben Simmons unsurprisingly ranks first and is a revelatory prospect who's simultaneously defying convention while meeting his expectations. From there we’re infested by a crap ton of traditional big men who impact the game in other areas. They rebound, protect the rim, and set screens. Some space the floor by diving through the paint. Some are still dangerous at the elbow, and can engineer decent offense with their vision and a mid-range jump shot. A very small handful do damage with their back to the basket.

The non-bigs here are exactly who you’d expect: T.J. McConnell, Kyle Anderson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Shaun Livingston, Tony Allen, Ish Smith, Kidd-Gilchrist, Dejounte Murray, etc. Omri Casspi is on there for some reason, too, somehow posting the highest True Shooting percentage of his career and the lowest three-point rate (The. Warriors. Are. Not. Fair.)

Over a third of everyone listed is at least 29 years old; five years from now this register will probably be half as long as it is today. This is foreseeable and a little depressing. The three-point shot is a game-changing roller-coaster, and when a collection of great shooters help frame the court in a way that broadens driving and passing lanes, the aesthetics can be breathtaking. (The. Warriors. Are. Not. Fair.)

I also just enjoy watching guys like Kidd-Gilchrist and Hollis-Jefferson—those who stand out with idiosyncratic limitations—but if you’re trying to win a championship right now it’s hard to justify their presence in your rotation. None of this is new, but stopping to think about what it means for basketball’s future every so often is necessary. I don’t want every team to play like the Rockets even though no team in the world is more entertaining.

4. Houston’s Angles are Ridiculous

Speaking of the Rockets, I’ve thought about this pass almost every day since it happened:

Like, what the hell? I have so many questions, starting with: In the moment: when did Chris Paul first believe that flinging a one-handed cross-court pass—directly parallel with the baseline—would actually work? Was it born from frustration or design?

As the shot clock ticks on, Tarik Black appears unsure of what he’s supposed to do. Paul directs him to set a down screen for Trevor Ariza, but Ariza instead jogs away in an attempt to drag his man to the weakside corner. Black then runs up to set a ball screen for Paul. There’s six freaking seconds on the clock and not even two dribbles into his assault Paul rifles the ball at an impossibly difficult and rare angle to create a wide-open three on the other side of the floor.

As the pick-and-roll unfolds, Thabo Sefolosha points for Royce O’Neale to stay in the paint and help defend what, in all likelihood, will either be a shot from Paul or Black. Does Paul see this and know it means Sefolosha is about to drop half a step toward the baseline to worry about Ariza in the corner? How is he so smart?!?

Paul and James Harden combine to average 19 assists per game. They’re second and third in the league in that category, respectively. But the Rockets only rank 12th in assist percentage and 29th in passes per game. They’re 28th in secondary assists and 13th in potential assists. That’s partly due to the fact that no team isolates more frequently than Houston. They maximize the space provided by their collection of human catapults and take advantage of the virtuous one-on-one skills possessed by their dual MVP candidates. (Not only do they isolate more than anybody else, no team is more efficient when attacking that way. This team is absurd.)

But Houston’s offense doesn’t peak when the ball is dribbled. Jaw-dropping, spontaneous passes made at angles very few players can even dream about allow the Rockets to generate efficient shots that catch defenses off balance. The surgical precision seen above is not attainable for most guards around the league, but it's basically second nature for Paul and Harden. Quick sidebar: Harden is probably going to win his first MVP this season, but not enough words can be written about Paul, who’s re-asserted himself as the second-best floor general in basketball and an automatic All-NBA member. Passes like that one help explain why.

5. J.J. Redick’s Game Isn’t Supposed to Expand, but it Has

At 33 years old, Redick is playing 33.5 minutes a night for a team that’s averaging 103.2 possessions per 48 minutes when he’s on the floor. Redick has never played this fast and his minutes have never been this high. As everyone fawns over Paul distancing himself from the formulaic style he enjoyed in L.A.,, Redick is experiencing the exact same thing in a role that doesn’t allow him to step on the gas whenever he wants.

Instead of seeing his responsibilities narrow, Redick’s doing more stuff in different ways. According to Synergy Sports, the percentage of all his jumpers that were off the dribble last season was 39 percent. Right now, that number is 47 percent, somewhat-expected uptick that's lowered his accuracy and can partially be attributed to greener teammates.

But heading into the season, without Paul for the first time in half a decade, I wasn’t sure Redick could do much beyond space the floor while Simmons ran high pick-and-rolls or Joel Embiid corralled entry passes on the block. Glue him to the corner and run him off a bunch of pindowns and Philly couldn’t be criticized for misunderstanding their marquee free agent acquisition. Instead, they’ve expanded his responsibilities in some very smart ways.

The ball feels like it’s in his hands far more than it was in Los Angeles. Instead of running through an endless maze of bodies, Redick's slicing defenses open with direct hand-offs and a bit more pick-and-roll action, all ultimately designed to turn the defense’s brain into toast.

Knowing the Lakers want to switch everything, Philly has Redick’s DHO turn into a staggered screen-and-roll. But Kentavious Caldwell-Pope doesn’t stop his pursuit—because Redick is that scary—momentarily putting two on the ball and allowing Redick to find Robert Covington wide open on the opposite wing. Kyle Kuzma switches off Amir Johnson in time to run Covington off the three-point line, but his off-balanced helps introduce the ball to the basket.

Whenever he sets a ball screen, two defenders are forced to communicate in an instant. Should they switch or fight through? Sometimes that question goes unanswered and both follow Redick. And sometimes the split-second hesitation is all a monster like Simmons needs to spark a match and pour gasoline all over the court.

Philadelphia is not good when Simmons and Embiid aren’t on the floor, but Redick stabilizes things as best he can, preventing bad from becoming apocalyptic. His assist rate in those minutes soars up to 25.8 (with a dependable 5.67 assist-to-turnover ratio) and his True Shooting is an uncanny 68.2. Covington is the only Sixer with a higher usage percentage.

All this is a pleasant surprise. I, personally, thought Redick was entering a different phase of his career after Joe Ingles crushed him in the playoffs. But in a new environment, as an elder statesman, Redick has shown that he's far more than a shooter, in a league that should be able to make good use of his talent for years to come.

6. C.J. Miles and The Babies

Since O.G. Anunonby cracked Toronto's starting lineup and Delon Wright dislocated his right shoulder (two events that basically happened at the same time, about a week before Thanksgiving), Raptors head coach Dwane Casey decided to hitch 30-year-old C.J. Miles to a bunch of children. Norm Powell (24 years old), Jakob Poeltl (22 and in need of a better nickname than "Austrian Hammer"), Fred VanVleet (23), and Pascal Siakam (23).

This is Toronto's second-most common five-man group over the past month, and they've been absolutely dreadful on both ends. But guess what? I don't care! Stubborn Casey is good sometimes. Yes, the Raptors should go back to a Lowry + Bench unit that makes opposing second units weep—swap Lowry in for Miles and that exact same supporting cast crushes everybody—but this makes me feel like Miles is a lovable babysitter that you can't, in good conscience, stay mad at.

Playing Miles at the three as opposed to the four doesn't make a ton of sense, but using him to space the floor for an inexperienced collection of players Toronto will need in the playoffs is fine enough for now.

7. Austin Rivers is an Isolation Genius...or Something

Thanks to a slew of notable injuries that have quickly transformed the perennial playoff-contending Los Angeles Clippers into the Los Angeles Clippers, Austin Rivers has been thrust into a role far greater than his ability can handle. But despite being an inefficient, borderline first-option with shaky shot selection, Rivers is also one of the league’s top one-on-one players.

Photo by Kim Klement - USA TODAY Sports

According to Synergy Sports, Rivers averaged 0.94 points per possession in isolation situations last year, a figure that placed him in the 73rd percentile. That’s not bad, even though it was likely boosted an unquantifiable degree thanks to Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford, J.J. Redick, Marreese Speights and even Ray Felton occupying the opposition's attention in various ways.

This year, surrounded by G-League talent more nights than not, Rivers’ isolation numbers are even better. He’s averaging 1.05 points per possession (74th percentile) and is actually more efficient than established All-Stars like Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and DeMar DeRozan.

Some of this is because the career 35.5 percent three-point shooter has canned 40.7 percent of his outside attempts—including 42.7 percent of his 3.0 pull ups per game. And some of it’s because he never ever ever turns it over. But few players symbolize the “million dollar move, 10 cent finish” expression better than Rivers, who’s a master at breaking his man down off the dribble, entering a crowd of rim protectors, and lofting a prayer towards the basket.

Given that this is such an uncertain time for the Clippers, swapping Rivers out for a second-round pick and expiring money (he has a $12.6 million player option for next year) should be an objective for their front office. Maybe there's a general manager out there who sees these numbers (particularly that impressive shooting) and wonders if Rivers can help his playoff team in a seven-game series.

8. Cleveland’s Juiciest Asset Is Not Really That Juicy

The Brooklyn Nets are, officially, no longer atrocious. Heading into Wednesday night’s action, they had a higher winning percentage than 10 teams despite not having their opening night backcourt starters for most of the season. They’re below average on both sides of the ball, but only three teams launch threes more frequently and only one owns a faster pace.

Brooklyn’s starting five—DeMarre Carroll, Spencer Dinwiddie, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Tyler Zeller, and Allen Crabbe—has obliterated opponents by 25.3 points per 100 possessions since Kenny Atkinson turned to it right before Thanksgiving, and adding Jahlil Okafor, Nik Stauskas, and healthy D’Angelo Russell to the mix will only improve their depth and diversify their offensive options.

When teams start to really tank in March and April, the Nets will be busting their ass to win games and get better at everything they do. All this is bad news for the Cleveland Cavaliers. What was once their crown jewel for Kyrie Irving might now be Zach Collins (who's actually playing pretty well, but that's beside the point).

Does this mean Koby Altman should aggressively shop his best asset around the league? It’s probably still a little too early for that, considering their current rhythm and fact that they’ve yet to see what Isaiah Thomas looks like in their rotation. But the odds of that pick staying in Cleveland feel a lot lower today than they were a couple months ago.

The pick’s dropping value also changes what it’s worth. That means strapping a top-three protection to it and checking on Aaron Gordon’s availability is far more likely than getting someone like Paul George or DeMarcus Cousins. Realistic targets are now closer to the Harrison Barnes, Batum, or Rodney Hood mold (a lottery pick for any of those three is still a dramatic overpay, even though they’d help the Cavs match up better against the Golden State Warriors or Houston Rockets in the Finals).

A couple weeks ago, before the Memphis Grizzlies fired David Fizdale, I wrote that Cleveland should give up the Nets pick for Marc Gasol. I didn’t believe they ever would, but now it’s not so crazy! When you have LeBron James doing UNBELIEVABLE LeBron James things every night, holding back as a front office feels criminal.

What’s the worst that could happen? They lose in the Finals, he leaves, and they don’t have the 10th pick in the draft? How much better off would Cleveland be if they hold onto that pick, lose in the Finals and watch him leave? They were arguably the worst franchise in the league during the four seasons he spent in Miami. Dark days lie ahead no matter what. The best thing they can do is go all-in and capitalize on a historic season from an all-time icon. Trade the pick, Cleveland! Convince him to stay! You're screwed if he leaves even if you have it!

9. David Nwaba is a Good NBA Player

Every time I watch Nwaba he makes three to five effort-intensive plays that makes Chicago feel like a competitive team. He’s just so damn physical, a tenacious rebounder who defends, draws fouls, finishes around the rim, and never turns it over.The Bulls (yes, the Bulls) are outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions with Nwaba on the floor, performing like a 53-win team. He’s awesome, and aside from the fact that he doesn’t shoot threes and there won't be a ton of money to go around this summer, one of the league’s 30 teams would be smart to offer present the restricted free agent with an offer sheet.

10. Finding Hope in Memphis

Almost exactly one year ago, Deyonta Davis tore the plantar fascia in his left foot, a devastating injury for any human being but particularly savage for someone who plays professional basketball and weighs 240 pounds. It essentially ended his rookie season.

In year two, as Marc Gasol’s primary backup thanks to Brandan Wright’s nagging groin injury, Davis is averaging 3.9 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. But in limited time he’s shown decent mobility on the defensive end and a feathery touch around the basket.

As someone who isn't fast enough to scamper around the perimeter, Memphis has him drop defending almost every pick-and-roll. Here he is stepping up to force Abrines to pass to Jerami Grant, then sliding back and forcing a turnover.

Now, against an actual playmaker who knew how to string his dribble out a bit longer, this sequence would probably not have the same result. Davis struggles against bigs who can shoot, too, forcing the Grizzlies to late switch or surrender open threes.

But according to Cleaning the Glass, whenever he's on the floor Memphis allows a ridiculous 11.3 fewer points per 100 possessions. (Opponents are also barely hitting threes when Davis is in the game, so, yeah, that's kind of meaningful and has nothing to do with his defense.)

On the other end, he's shooting 79 percent at the rim. That's really good! And aside from the natural hiccup as he learns to read the floor, taking shots as a roller when he should hit the open man, there are examples of him identifying what he needs to do and executing immediately.

Before he even catches Ben McLemore's pass out of Washington's trap, Davis' eyes are set on the opposite wing, initiating a sequence that leads to an open three and one of the most beautiful possessions Memphis has experienced all season.

He's still a project, but one who only played 600 minutes in college and hardly saw the floor last season. Davis is shooting 72.7 percent whenever he rolls to the basket; the day Gasol leaves Memphis will be dark, but Davis is beginning to flash the talent of someone who deserves a chance to *attempt* to fill those humongous shoes.

The Outlet Pass: Charlotte's Tailspin, Cavs Trade Targets, and NBA What-Ifs published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

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The Outlet Pass: Charlotte’s Tailspin, Cavs Trade Targets, and NBA What-Ifs

1. Can Charlotte Turn Things Around?

The Charlotte Hornets are stuck in an injury-induced tailspin. They’ve dropped eight of their last 10 games, including two straight at home against the Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls. Their head coach is out with a health issue (get well soon, Steve Clifford) and they’re four games back of a playoff spot, with four teams—the Orlando Magic, New York Knicks, Miami Heat, and Brooklyn Nets—standing in their way.

At one point last week they went to their bench and I literally didn’t know the first names of two players on the court. Michael Carter-Williams is making Marcus Smart look like Glen Rice and Malik Monk is barely in the rotation while Donovan Mitchell (the next guard selected) is averaging 27.2 points per game in December.

Charlotte’s starting five is fine when everybody’s healthy but they’ve only played Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams, Dwight Howard, and Jeremy Lamb together for seven minutes all season. Normally, they are stuck with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on the floor, dragging the offense down. Just look at how disrespectful the Thunder are to MKG in the play below.

Kidd-Gilchrist isn’t fooling anyone from deep, but he’s now a modestly-reliable safety valve from 15 feet and in. The Hornets are rushing to execute a 2-for-1 on this particular sequence, but it’s still jarring to see an NBA starter find himself SO open and not come close to touching the ball.

Their primary Batum + Bench unit was doing pretty well before Cody Zeller had knee surgery, though, partially because Lamb was in it. When Dwayne Bacon replaces Kidd-Gilchrist in the starting lineup they destroy people.

Ultimately, it all comes down to the Hornets just not being very good when Walker isn’t in the game. According to Cleaning the Glass, Charlotte is 22.1 points per 100 possessions better with Walker on the floor. Even if Batum is the de-facto primary ball-handler, their offense is stagnant and averages less than one point per possession. That’s so bad, but everything goes to hell when they’re both out. (The starting five is okay, but not crushing opponents enough to justify heavy minutes together while the bench can’t fend for itself.)

In what almost felt like season-saving victory against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night, interim head coach Stephen Silas stretched Walker and Lamb’s playing time into a 15.5-minute stint to open the second half. In his eyes, Charlotte’s bench was a Rob Zombie-directed blood bath. Slaughter would commence the second he switched up his backcourt.

Silas knew Charlotte needed that game. For extending his starters, he was rewarded with ridiculous, completely unsustainable shot making against a defense that sorely missed Andre Roberson (I think Alex Abrines just fouled another three-point shooter). But a win is a win is a win.

With their upcoming schedule providing zero seconds to exhale, the Hornets will either get healthy, tinker with the rotation and stop their ship from sinking, or face some difficult questions before the trade deadline. (‘Does anyone want the $76 million left on Batum’s contract? How about the $29 million owed to Marvin Williams?’ or, ‘Can we please for the love of God find a backup point guard?’)

Barring a significant transaction, next year’s roster will look about the same as this one, plus whoever they get in the draft. But whether or not this team views itself as a buyer or a seller is another relevant discussion. The Hornets have enough talent to make the playoffs and even win a few games once they get in (or even an entire series if they can somehow grab the sixth seed).

Rebuilding won’t be easy with this cap sheet, and Walker is smack dab in the middle of his prime. If Monk doesn’t make rapid progress from here on out, do they think about dealing him and/or their first-round pick in the 2018 draft for immediate help? Injuries stink and so does bad luck, but the Hornets aren’t as rudderless as they currently feel. We’ll know even more about the direction they should head as the next couple months unfold.

2. This Year’s NBA What-Ifs Are Pretty Great

This season has been filled with a handful of shocking developments. After a possible career-altering injury to their best all-around player, the Boston Celtics are very good. With their entire roster 100 percent healthy (relatively speaking), the Oklahoma City Thunder are not very good. The Indiana Pacers are good. The Miami Heat are bad. The Portland Trail Blazers are Stranger Things Season 3.

Based on reports and rumors from various points throughout the offseason, here’s a semi-educated look at how things might look today had a few key moves gone down a bit differently.

A. Carmelo Anthony is traded to the Portland Trail Blazers

For the sake of argument, let’s just say Portland gave up Evan Turner, Mo Harkless, and a future first-round pick. So, in all likelihood, the Blazers would start Melo at the three, Al-Farouq Aminu at the four, and Jusif Nurkic at center. That starting five looks offensively unstoppable on paper, but, like, so does Oklahoma City’s. Make this trade and what happens to Portland’s top-five defense? Are they still rebounding this well? Do they score at will or does Anthony further impede what’s been an unusually static offense?

Photo by Joseph Weiser-USA TODAY Sports

In addition to transforming into a gigantic whoopee cushion whenever he’s around the basket—Melo’s days of getting to the free-throw line are, at 33 years old, understandably dunzo—his assist to usage ratio ranks in the ninth percentile at his position. Even though the percentage of his shots that are unassisted hasn’t been this low since he was with the Denver Nuggets (which feels 7,000 years ago), he still loves long twos and there are defiant insecurities related to how he’s approached the seasons’ first couple months. His stubbornness has contributed to the league’s most glaring disappointment, and he’s shooting 37.6 percent from the floor over the Thunder’s last 10 games.

Would things be different in Portland? Would Anthony play better off C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, next to role players who won’t clog the floor and know how to pass? The stakes would be pretty low; Portland would remain unable to circumvent its own flaws and triumphantly battle through a ruthless playoff bracket. But they might be incrementally better than they are now, guaranteed a spot in the postseason, with pleasant vibes carrying them forward.

The other key side effect, assuming every other move happens as it has, is that Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott would still be on the Thunder instead of enjoying Westbrook-free serenity in midtown Manhattan. How would Anthony being in Portland affect Paul George in Oklahoma? Besides more shot opportunities, it’s hard to say. Assuming Billy Donovan chose to stagger his two best players, George would have more time on units that’d call for him to be one of the dozen best players in the world. The team’s defense might be even better than it already is.

Westbrook could also spend more time going Full Westbrook, even though Full Westbrook as we knew it last year might be a permanent thing of the past.

B. Gordon Hayward signs with the Miami Heat

Would Kyrie Irving express interest in re-signing with the Boston Celtics if Hayward chose a different team, or were Al Horford’s harmonious style, stable ownership, and Brad Stevens’ genius already enough? If not, the Celtics would likely be in the middle of the Eastern Conference with Marcus Smart starting at point guard and Terry Rozier playing 30 minutes a night. They’d disintegrate when Horford hit the bench, and any long-term injury that’d keep him out would be fatal. Also, Jae Crowder would still be around, likely clogging a pipeline that’s seen Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown flourish.

If Hayward is healthy, what does Miami’s roster look like? (WHERE IS KELLY OLYNYK?!?) Is Miami better than it is right now or would Hayward struggle within the cramped confines of a Hassan Whiteside-Justise Winslow frontcourt? Even if they didn’t want to re-sign James Johnson or Dion Waiters with Hayward in tow, the Heat might still turn to decreasingly unconventional means, perhaps permanently plopping the one-time All-Star at the four, and having guards like Goran Dragic and Wayne Ellington set ball screens for him 35 feet from the basket.

C. Paul George is traded to the Boston Celtics

Things have so far worked out fine in Boston, but let me crawl out on a limb and declare that this team would be really freaking good if they somehow had Paul George, healthy Hayward, Irving, and Horford on the same team. Sub George for Tatum right now and they’re (maybe but not definitely) a better regular-season team. Their ceiling elevates on both ends in the postseason.

The more important ripple effect here is with Westbrook and the Thunder. Does he sign his extension or demand a trade? What does professional basketball in Oklahoma City even look like? And where are the Indiana Pacers? They don’t have Victor Oladipo (a hipster’s MVP candidate if there ever was one) or Domantas Sabonis. Their optimism would instead spout from Tatum’s magical touch and any other assets Kevin Pritchard could pry from Danny Ainge.

Even though this exercise is purely hypothetical, I’m far too lazy to trace imaginary steps and figure out what Boston’s roster would actually look like, but if the Celtics’ starting five somehow had four All-Stars and Jaylen Brown, um, that team would probably go to the Finals.

3. So, Who Isn’t Shooting Threes?

The highly scientific requirements to answer this question are such: A) a player has to launch no more than one three per game, B) he must average at least 12 minutes, and C) he needs to have appeared in at least 20 games. Here are the 49 players who qualify.

If you hold those benchmarks up against last season (and raise the minimum number of games to 55) that number rises by 12 players. Five years ago that same list had 99 players on it. For those counting at home, with my admittedly arbitrary qualifiers, that means the number of players (who actually play) who don’t use the three-point line is about half what it was during LeBron James’ third season in Miami—hard evidence of a revolution that’s been identified in real time.

Photo by Shanna Lockwood – USA TODAY Sports

Let’s go back to this year’s group, which reads like an endangered species list. How many players on there are useful despite their inability/unwillingness to shoot threes? If we first look at total minutes played, Ben Simmons unsurprisingly ranks first and is a revelatory prospect who’s simultaneously defying convention while meeting his expectations. From there we’re infested by a crap ton of traditional big men who impact the game in other areas. They rebound, protect the rim, and set screens. Some space the floor by diving through the paint. Some are still dangerous at the elbow, and can engineer decent offense with their vision and a mid-range jump shot. A very small handful do damage with their back to the basket.

The non-bigs here are exactly who you’d expect: T.J. McConnell, Kyle Anderson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Shaun Livingston, Tony Allen, Ish Smith, Kidd-Gilchrist, Dejounte Murray, etc. Omri Casspi is on there for some reason, too, somehow posting the highest True Shooting percentage of his career and the lowest three-point rate (The. Warriors. Are. Not. Fair.)

Over a third of everyone listed is at least 29 years old; five years from now this register will probably be half as long as it is today. This is foreseeable and a little depressing. The three-point shot is a game-changing roller-coaster, and when a collection of great shooters help frame the court in a way that broadens driving and passing lanes, the aesthetics can be breathtaking. (The. Warriors. Are. Not. Fair.)

I also just enjoy watching guys like Kidd-Gilchrist and Hollis-Jefferson—those who stand out with idiosyncratic limitations—but if you’re trying to win a championship right now it’s hard to justify their presence in your rotation. None of this is new, but stopping to think about what it means for basketball’s future every so often is necessary. I don’t want every team to play like the Rockets even though no team in the world is more entertaining.

4. Houston’s Angles are Ridiculous

Speaking of the Rockets, I’ve thought about this pass almost every day since it happened:

Like, what the hell? I have so many questions, starting with: In the moment: when did Chris Paul first believe that flinging a one-handed cross-court pass—directly parallel with the baseline—would actually work? Was it born from frustration or design?

As the shot clock ticks on, Tarik Black appears unsure of what he’s supposed to do. Paul directs him to set a down screen for Trevor Ariza, but Ariza instead jogs away in an attempt to drag his man to the weakside corner. Black then runs up to set a ball screen for Paul. There’s six freaking seconds on the clock and not even two dribbles into his assault Paul rifles the ball at an impossibly difficult and rare angle to create a wide-open three on the other side of the floor.

As the pick-and-roll unfolds, Thabo Sefolosha points for Royce O’Neale to stay in the paint and help defend what, in all likelihood, will either be a shot from Paul or Black. Does Paul see this and know it means Sefolosha is about to drop half a step toward the baseline to worry about Ariza in the corner? How is he so smart?!?

Paul and James Harden combine to average 19 assists per game. They’re second and third in the league in that category, respectively. But the Rockets only rank 12th in assist percentage and 29th in passes per game. They’re 28th in secondary assists and 13th in potential assists. That’s partly due to the fact that no team isolates more frequently than Houston. They maximize the space provided by their collection of human catapults and take advantage of the virtuous one-on-one skills possessed by their dual MVP candidates. (Not only do they isolate more than anybody else, no team is more efficient when attacking that way. This team is absurd.)

But Houston’s offense doesn’t peak when the ball is dribbled. Jaw-dropping, spontaneous passes made at angles very few players can even dream about allow the Rockets to generate efficient shots that catch defenses off balance. The surgical precision seen above is not attainable for most guards around the league, but it’s basically second nature for Paul and Harden. Quick sidebar: Harden is probably going to win his first MVP this season, but not enough words can be written about Paul, who’s re-asserted himself as the second-best floor general in basketball and an automatic All-NBA member. Passes like that one help explain why.

5. J.J. Redick’s Game Isn’t Supposed to Expand, but it Has

At 33 years old, Redick is playing 33.5 minutes a night for a team that’s averaging 103.2 possessions per 48 minutes when he’s on the floor. Redick has never played this fast and his minutes have never been this high. As everyone fawns over Paul distancing himself from the formulaic style he enjoyed in L.A.,, Redick is experiencing the exact same thing in a role that doesn’t allow him to step on the gas whenever he wants.

Instead of seeing his responsibilities narrow, Redick’s doing more stuff in different ways. According to Synergy Sports, the percentage of all his jumpers that were off the dribble last season was 39 percent. Right now, that number is 47 percent, somewhat-expected uptick that’s lowered his accuracy and can partially be attributed to greener teammates.

But heading into the season, without Paul for the first time in half a decade, I wasn’t sure Redick could do much beyond space the floor while Simmons ran high pick-and-rolls or Joel Embiid corralled entry passes on the block. Glue him to the corner and run him off a bunch of pindowns and Philly couldn’t be criticized for misunderstanding their marquee free agent acquisition. Instead, they’ve expanded his responsibilities in some very smart ways.

The ball feels like it’s in his hands far more than it was in Los Angeles. Instead of running through an endless maze of bodies, Redick’s slicing defenses open with direct hand-offs and a bit more pick-and-roll action, all ultimately designed to turn the defense’s brain into toast.

Knowing the Lakers want to switch everything, Philly has Redick’s DHO turn into a staggered screen-and-roll. But Kentavious Caldwell-Pope doesn’t stop his pursuit—because Redick is that scary—momentarily putting two on the ball and allowing Redick to find Robert Covington wide open on the opposite wing. Kyle Kuzma switches off Amir Johnson in time to run Covington off the three-point line, but his off-balanced helps introduce the ball to the basket.

Whenever he sets a ball screen, two defenders are forced to communicate in an instant. Should they switch or fight through? Sometimes that question goes unanswered and both follow Redick. And sometimes the split-second hesitation is all a monster like Simmons needs to spark a match and pour gasoline all over the court.

Philadelphia is not good when Simmons and Embiid aren’t on the floor, but Redick stabilizes things as best he can, preventing bad from becoming apocalyptic. His assist rate in those minutes soars up to 25.8 (with a dependable 5.67 assist-to-turnover ratio) and his True Shooting is an uncanny 68.2. Covington is the only Sixer with a higher usage percentage.

All this is a pleasant surprise. I, personally, thought Redick was entering a different phase of his career after Joe Ingles crushed him in the playoffs. But in a new environment, as an elder statesman, Redick has shown that he’s far more than a shooter, in a league that should be able to make good use of his talent for years to come.

6. C.J. Miles and The Babies

Since O.G. Anunonby cracked Toronto’s starting lineup and Delon Wright dislocated his right shoulder (two events that basically happened at the same time, about a week before Thanksgiving), Raptors head coach Dwane Casey decided to hitch 30-year-old C.J. Miles to a bunch of children. Norm Powell (24 years old), Jakob Poeltl (22 and in need of a better nickname than “Austrian Hammer”), Fred VanVleet (23), and Pascal Siakam (23).

This is Toronto’s second-most common five-man group over the past month, and they’ve been absolutely dreadful on both ends. But guess what? I don’t care! Stubborn Casey is good sometimes. Yes, the Raptors should go back to a Lowry + Bench unit that makes opposing second units weep—swap Lowry in for Miles and that exact same supporting cast crushes everybody—but this makes me feel like Miles is a lovable babysitter that you can’t, in good conscience, stay mad at.

Playing Miles at the three as opposed to the four doesn’t make a ton of sense, but using him to space the floor for an inexperienced collection of players Toronto will need in the playoffs is fine enough for now.

7. Austin Rivers is an Isolation Genius…or Something

Thanks to a slew of notable injuries that have quickly transformed the perennial playoff-contending Los Angeles Clippers into the Los Angeles Clippers, Austin Rivers has been thrust into a role far greater than his ability can handle. But despite being an inefficient, borderline first-option with shaky shot selection, Rivers is also one of the league’s top one-on-one players.

Photo by Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports

According to Synergy Sports, Rivers averaged 0.94 points per possession in isolation situations last year, a figure that placed him in the 73rd percentile. That’s not bad, even though it was likely boosted an unquantifiable degree thanks to Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford, J.J. Redick, Marreese Speights and even Ray Felton occupying the opposition’s attention in various ways.

This year, surrounded by G-League talent more nights than not, Rivers’ isolation numbers are even better. He’s averaging 1.05 points per possession (74th percentile) and is actually more efficient than established All-Stars like Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and DeMar DeRozan.

Some of this is because the career 35.5 percent three-point shooter has canned 40.7 percent of his outside attempts—including 42.7 percent of his 3.0 pull ups per game. And some of it’s because he never ever ever turns it over. But few players symbolize the “million dollar move, 10 cent finish” expression better than Rivers, who’s a master at breaking his man down off the dribble, entering a crowd of rim protectors, and lofting a prayer towards the basket.

Given that this is such an uncertain time for the Clippers, swapping Rivers out for a second-round pick and expiring money (he has a $12.6 million player option for next year) should be an objective for their front office. Maybe there’s a general manager out there who sees these numbers (particularly that impressive shooting) and wonders if Rivers can help his playoff team in a seven-game series.

8. Cleveland’s Juiciest Asset Is Not Really That Juicy

The Brooklyn Nets are, officially, no longer atrocious. Heading into Wednesday night’s action, they had a higher winning percentage than 10 teams despite not having their opening night backcourt starters for most of the season. They’re below average on both sides of the ball, but only three teams launch threes more frequently and only one owns a faster pace.

Brooklyn’s starting five—DeMarre Carroll, Spencer Dinwiddie, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Tyler Zeller, and Allen Crabbe—has obliterated opponents by 25.3 points per 100 possessions since Kenny Atkinson turned to it right before Thanksgiving, and adding Jahlil Okafor, Nik Stauskas, and healthy D’Angelo Russell to the mix will only improve their depth and diversify their offensive options.

When teams start to really tank in March and April, the Nets will be busting their ass to win games and get better at everything they do. All this is bad news for the Cleveland Cavaliers. What was once their crown jewel for Kyrie Irving might now be Zach Collins (who’s actually playing pretty well, but that’s beside the point).

Does this mean Koby Altman should aggressively shop his best asset around the league? It’s probably still a little too early for that, considering their current rhythm and fact that they’ve yet to see what Isaiah Thomas looks like in their rotation. But the odds of that pick staying in Cleveland feel a lot lower today than they were a couple months ago.

The pick’s dropping value also changes what it’s worth. That means strapping a top-three protection to it and checking on Aaron Gordon’s availability is far more likely than getting someone like Paul George or DeMarcus Cousins. Realistic targets are now closer to the Harrison Barnes, Batum, or Rodney Hood mold (a lottery pick for any of those three is still a dramatic overpay, even though they’d help the Cavs match up better against the Golden State Warriors or Houston Rockets in the Finals).

A couple weeks ago, before the Memphis Grizzlies fired David Fizdale, I wrote that Cleveland should give up the Nets pick for Marc Gasol. I didn’t believe they ever would, but now it’s not so crazy! When you have LeBron James doing UNBELIEVABLE LeBron James things every night, holding back as a front office feels criminal.

What’s the worst that could happen? They lose in the Finals, he leaves, and they don’t have the 10th pick in the draft? How much better off would Cleveland be if they hold onto that pick, lose in the Finals and watch him leave? They were arguably the worst franchise in the league during the four seasons he spent in Miami. Dark days lie ahead no matter what. The best thing they can do is go all-in and capitalize on a historic season from an all-time icon. Trade the pick, Cleveland! Convince him to stay! You’re screwed if he leaves even if you have it!

http://ift.tt/2o4xAdF

9. David Nwaba is a Good NBA Player

Every time I watch Nwaba he makes three to five effort-intensive plays that makes Chicago feel like a competitive team. He’s just so damn physical, a tenacious rebounder who defends, draws fouls, finishes around the rim, and never turns it over.The Bulls (yes, the Bulls) are outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions with Nwaba on the floor, performing like a 53-win team. He’s awesome, and aside from the fact that he doesn’t shoot threes and there won’t be a ton of money to go around this summer, one of the league’s 30 teams would be smart to offer present the restricted free agent with an offer sheet.

10. Finding Hope in Memphis

Almost exactly one year ago, Deyonta Davis tore the plantar fascia in his left foot, a devastating injury for any human being but particularly savage for someone who plays professional basketball and weighs 240 pounds. It essentially ended his rookie season.

In year two, as Marc Gasol’s primary backup thanks to Brandan Wright’s nagging groin injury, Davis is averaging 3.9 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. But in limited time he’s shown decent mobility on the defensive end and a feathery touch around the basket.

As someone who isn’t fast enough to scamper around the perimeter, Memphis has him drop defending almost every pick-and-roll. Here he is stepping up to force Abrines to pass to Jerami Grant, then sliding back and forcing a turnover.

Now, against an actual playmaker who knew how to string his dribble out a bit longer, this sequence would probably not have the same result. Davis struggles against bigs who can shoot, too, forcing the Grizzlies to late switch or surrender open threes.

But according to Cleaning the Glass, whenever he’s on the floor Memphis allows a ridiculous 11.3 fewer points per 100 possessions. (Opponents are also barely hitting threes when Davis is in the game, so, yeah, that’s kind of meaningful and has nothing to do with his defense.)

On the other end, he’s shooting 79 percent at the rim. That’s really good! And aside from the natural hiccup as he learns to read the floor, taking shots as a roller when he should hit the open man, there are examples of him identifying what he needs to do and executing immediately.

Before he even catches Ben McLemore’s pass out of Washington’s trap, Davis’ eyes are set on the opposite wing, initiating a sequence that leads to an open three and one of the most beautiful possessions Memphis has experienced all season.

He’s still a project, but one who only played 600 minutes in college and hardly saw the floor last season. Davis is shooting 72.7 percent whenever he rolls to the basket; the day Gasol leaves Memphis will be dark, but Davis is beginning to flash the talent of someone who deserves a chance to *attempt* to fill those humongous shoes.

The Outlet Pass: Charlotte’s Tailspin, Cavs Trade Targets, and NBA What-Ifs syndicated from http://ift.tt/2ug2Ns6

[junker-town]

Each MLS team in 2021, previewed by the experts who know them best

Previewing the new MLS season by the people who know their teams best.

MLS enters its 26th season still trying to figure out exactly what it is, but probably stronger than it ever has been before in terms of its standing on the world stage. No, it’s not yet a “league of choice” — something Commissioner Don Garber has long promised — but it is financially stable and competitive from top to bottom, something few other leagues anywhere can boast right now.

Once considered a bit of a retirement league, MLS continues to bring in more and more international-quality players either in the primes of their careers or on the upswing. They’ve also got three new stadiums opening this year, one of which will house a brand new team.

We reached out to our team blogs — and a few other subject experts — to explain why their teams are worth watching this year.

Eastern Conference

Atlanta United

For all the completely understandable reasons that Atlanta United fans may have checked out last season, this may be a season in which fans can’t look away. Everything about the team feels reinvigorated, from the coaching staff to the new and returning players. Atlanta United set a low bar after failing to reach the playoffs in a season in which 10 (!) teams from each conference qualified. The season may not be an instant success from day one in terms of results, but it should be a highly entertaining product on the field.

Josef Martinez is poised to make his return, George Bello could have a breakout season under new head coach Gabriel Heinze and Ezequiel Barco will be itching to show teams in Europe his quality. Why shouldn’t you be excited? Even if the team doesn’t win any trophies, Atlanta United’s tactical setup and philosophy should be exciting enough in itself to make this season so much more fun than 2020. Oh yeah, and there’s the whole thing about fans potentially returning to stadiums across the league. - Joe Patrick, Dirty South Soccer

Chicago Fire

Gaston Gimenez and Alvaro Medran gave the Fire one of the best midfield combos in MLS last season. They’re both back, and they both have a year of experience in MLS under their belts. Playing in front of them will likely be Luka Stojanovic, who played all of 60 minutes in 2020 before a season ending knee injury. Stojanovic should provide both a scoring punch, and more creativity in the attack, two things he was signed to add before his injury. Mauricio Pineda, who went from Homegrown signing, to the team’s leader in minutes played, to the Fire’s Defender of the Year, should continue to improve in 2021. Veteran Johan Kappelhof is back after an injury plagued 2020, looks as fit as ever, and may actually see time in defensive midfield. And Robert Beric, who was one of the hottest strikers in MLS at the end of last season, should pick up where he left off in 2021.

Last season was a mess at times, and the team didn’t put together many complete, 90 minute performances. This season will be different for the Fire. As defender Miguel Navarro said recently, “This year, there aren’t any excuses.” - Patrick McCraney, Hot Time in Old Town

FC Cincinnati

FC Cincinnati has got just about everything you need for an entertaining season. They’ve got some of the biggest crowds in the league, passionate and loud fans willing their team on. They’ve got a brand new home with the team opening up their very own stadium in the historic West End neighborhood in the center of the city. The club’s got some of the flashiest and most expensive attacking talent in the league in the likes of Brenner and Lucho Acosta. And, finally FC Cincy has that bit of dysfunction that you need to keep everybody on their toes.

Look, the team’s got the talent potential to legitimately be a good team in MLS. But that’s only come with the team’s own self-inflicted hardships. That means that, while it’s hard to make predictions, it’s definitely safe to say that the club is going to have its ups and downs. Success will come down to whether the team can make that dance on that precarious line between success and catastrophe. Fans will certainly be hoping the team lands on the right side of that line. But however it ends, it’s going to be quite the trip. - Adnan Ilyas

Columbus Crew

The easy answer for why to watch the Crew is that the team is the defending MLS Cup champions. What makes the Black & Gold even more exciting is that they managed to improve over the offseason. The Crew’s offense was already fun to watch with MLS Cup MVP Lucas Zelarayan, U.S. international Gyasi Zardes and Portuguese winger Pedro Santos, but Columbus added one of the top scorers in MLS history in Bradley Wright-Phillips and winger Kevin Molino.

The team also became deeper with acquisitions of Perry Kitchen in the midfield to go along with Darlington Nagbe and Artur and Marlon Hairston to back up Harrison Afful at right back. It’s hard to win an MLS Cup and get better but it very much looks like the Crew did just that this offseason. - Patrick Murphy, Massive Report

Inter Miami

You should keep an eye out for Inter Miami this year because of settled expectations. After years of controversy around rushed stadium plans, an overhyped transfer mindset, and a rushed roster; Miami are ready to settle in.

Miami’s shine wore off quickly last season. The David Beckham owned and marketed squad never seemed comfortable under Diego Alonso. The Uruguayan coach was quickly sacked after the team’s tenth place finish.

In comes Phil Neville, to no one’s surprise, and now Beckham has his man and no excuses. The ex-Juventus duo of Gonzalo Higuain and Blaise Matuidi should be more motivated than ever after uncharacteristically poor seasons. A long offseason can only do two well-seasoned… - Josh Sutter

CF Montreal

Sporting Director, Olivier Renard has been successful previously in Belgium with player recruitment. With each of KV Mechelen and more especially Standard Liege, he generated significant profits from recruiting, shrewdly, players that each club was able to develop and sell-on at significant profit.

The Belgian is optimistic about the new season and feels confident CF Montreal will make progress. Although fans and media may still express doubt over the quality of the new workforce, one thing that everyone agrees on is that Renard’s prudence has ensured more than adequate cover for every position. He’s also recruited players for similar positions with differing attributes, providing greater flexibility of systems for the coach. - Paul Vance, Mount Royal Soccer

Nashville SC

After a successful inaugural season that saw the Boys in Gold reach the MLS Cup Eastern Conference Semifinals, Nashville SC is back looking to build on its success and establish themselves as a contender for the foreseeable future.

SC had a phenomenal year defensively allowing .96 goals a game, the best mark by an expansion team in MLS history. Nashville was also third in goals allowed with 22, and SC has one of the better backlines in MLS led by centerbacks Dave Romney, Walker Zimmerman, the reigning MLS Defender of the Year, and keeper Joe Willis who at age 33 had the best season of his career.

With a strong backline allowing for more chances on the offensive end, expect Nashville SC to challenge for a top-five regular season finish in the Eastern Conference. - Zachary Junda

New England Revolution

The New England Revolution are coming off a disappointing loss in the Eastern Conference Finals. The only way they can be pleased with their performance in 2021 is by making the MLS Cup.

New England actually improved their squad with the acquisitions of Arnor Traustason, Christian Mafla, and Wilfrid Kaptoum. The Revs also have key players like Matt Turner, Henry Kessler, and Tajon Buchanan along with DP’s Carles Gil and Gustavo Bou returning to the squad.

In 2020 Revs fans saw just how much Gil means to the club. Once he returned from injury the club looked completely different. They had their heart and soul back on the pitch.

This season New England should compete for an MLS Cup. With how deep the squad is there should be plenty of goals scored and some exciting soccer being played throughout the 2021 season. - Sam Minton, The Bent Musket

New York City FC

What NYCFC lack in star power, they more than make up for in fundamentally sound role players and younger guys who are beginning to show exactly how high their ceilings really are. Maxi Moralez is one of the more fun playmakers in the league to watch. James Sands is a stud Homegrown defensive midfielder and will probably be moving to Europe sooner rather than later. And Anton Tinnerholm is by far the best right back in the league.

Another fun tidbit is that as of right now, New York City has two free Designated Player slots. This means there is the potential of some eye-opening additions once the summer window opens. Even if they aren’t the best in the league — or even their conference — right out of the gate, there are few MLS clubs with higher upside than NYCFC. - Christian Smith, Hudson River Blue

New York Red Bulls

The Red Bulls have never been more committed to the energy drink soccer philosophy than they will be this season. Former Salzburg academy and reserves manager Gerhard Struber was recruited from Barnsley by Red Bull founder Dietrich Mateschitz personally, and former Wolverhampton Wanderers sporting director Kevin Thelwell has brought in a diverse array of young signings for him to pursue an extreme high-press scheme with.

The Red Bulls will continue to disappoint fans seeking Hollywood signings, but the specific attributes and profiles sought out by the club’s new technical leadership promise to give the team a coherent and dynamic tactical approach. It’s an approach that could potentially run other MLS teams off the field, the way New York did in the Supporters Shield-winning campaigns of not too long ago. - Ben Cork, Once a Metro

Orlando City

Simply put, Orlando City are fun. They play an exciting brand of possession-based soccer, typically building out of the back but perfectly willing to have Robin Jansson or Oriol Rosell send a long ball out wide to catch the opposition napping and create a quick transition opportunity.

Up and down the roster, there are exciting players at almost every position. That starts with Nani, the one-time Portugal international. Daryl Dike was a revelation at forward last season. Chris Mueller is a hard-working and creative player with a motor that only runs at full power. Pereyra is a sorcerer with the ball because, as Falcon says, a sorcerer is a wizard without a hat. And let’s not forget Ruan’s (and Benji Michel’s) blazing speed, Junior Urso’s passion, Pedro Gallese’s highlight saves, or Moutinho’s magical crosses. - Michael Citro, The Mane Land

Toronto FC

On paper, Toronto FC are still projected to be one of the best teams in MLS, led of course by the reigning MVP: Alejandro Pozuelo. Michael Bradley is expected to contribute more offensively than in years past, while Jozy Altidore appears to have bought in to new head coach Chris Armas’ vision, as he’s apparently working hard and pushing others in training in hopes of bouncing back after a disappointing 2021 campaign.

The club is also extremely high on some of their young Canadian talent, like Ayo Akinola — the league-leader in goals per 90 last season — Jayden Nelson, Ralph Priso, and Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty, as TFC arguably boast the best prospect cupboard in all of MLS. The youngsters are expected to earn quite a few minutes under Armas, which should be intriguing to fans who have been waiting to see what some of their local talent could do. - Michael Singh, Waking the Red

Western Conference

Austin FC

If preseason is any indicator of how this team will approach the offensive side of the game, and goals on goals on goals is your kind of thing, then Austin FC may just be worth it. Austin has shown they’re willing to attack, throw numbers forward and certainly not lacking in any creative ideas at the moment.

Austin hasn’t lacked in finding goals during the first two pre-season games against Houston and Dallas (total of 5 goals scored) and are finding their offensive joy from everyone across the attacking line. Plus, you just never know when Matthew McConaughey is going to make some kind of cameo. - Jason Poon

Colorado Rapids

Last season, MLS adjusted the playoff qualifications more or less for the Rapids since they would be playing significantly fewer games due to a COVID-19 outbreak within the club. Despite playing just 18 games in 2020 (every other team in the conference played 21-23), Colorado still made the playoffs the old-fashioned way: overall points. Sure, they didn’t look great and got bounced in the first round by Minnesota United, but they finished the season on a three-game winning streak AND won the Rocky Mountain Cup for the first time since 2015.

The front office may not have signed a DP in the offseason like fans wanted, but without losing any key players and only bringing in more talent, spirits should be high in what will hopefully be Robin Fraser’s first full regular season as head coach. If things go how they’ve been trending over the past season and a half, the Rapids will do well and make it to post-season again. - Abbie Mood Lang, Burgundy Wave

FC Dallas

Normally it would be the Homegrown players and which ones will be next up. But after transfers for Reggie Cannon and Bryan Reynolds last season, it appears that while the pipeline of academy talent is still there for FC Dallas it may be their young South American talent that is more intriguing this season to keep an eye out on. Jadar Obrian was the leading scoring in the Colombian top flight last year, while Freddy Vargas appears to be a dead-ball specialist on the wing that the club has lacked since the departure of veteran defender Reto Ziegler.

If they can tie it all together with the Homegrowns like Jesus Ferreira, Tanner Tessmann, Ricardo Pepi and a returning Paxton Pomykal, this club could make some serious noise in MLS. - Drew Epperley, Big D Soccer

Houston Dynamo

You will want to tune in to Dynamo games because there really is no telling what is going to happen. Houston can look like an unbeatable juggernaut at times when they are playing at home and other times when on the road, they will look like a group of guys who just learned how to play the sport. You’ll also want to watch Dynamo games to see that maturation of Tab Ramos as a coach and how his tactics and system begin to become ingrained in this team.

They may not be the best team, heck, they might not even be that good, but Ramos is going to have them playing his way and playing hard. The Dynamo are on the path to becoming a relevant team again and at times it may not be pretty, but you’re going to see a team learning, growing, and becoming the embodiment of their manager out on the field. - Dustyn Richardson, Dynamo Theory

LAFC

This is the most exciting team to watch in MLS, period. If you’re a neutral, you’ll love the goalfests that LAFC frequently are involved in. They not only score a ton themselves, but two of the last three seasons have also conceded bucketloads. You know how every coach who has an introductory press conference says, “We want to play exciting, attacking, front-foot soccer”? That’s what this team does. It can be nervy for fans, but it’s also fun to root for a team that can seems capable of scoring four goals against any opponent.

Beyond the goals and the high-octane style, LAFC have a growing group of young and young-ish talent from around the world that is showing just how successful the club’s scouting network has been thus far. Yes, they’ve struggled to get the 3rd Designated Player right, and their current one, Brian Rodriguez, may or may not return from his current loan to the Spanish second flight, but when the first choice XI is available they are a ton of fun to watch and they are rightly considered title contenders in 2021. - Alicia Rodriguez, Angels on Parade

LA Galaxy

There’s been holes in the roster in the past, to be sure, but again, this squad has been better than their performances have shown. If they can be back to their best — if Chicharito can finally find traction in MLS and become a consistent scorer, if Sebastian Lletget can play as well for club as he does for country, if the defense can stop shipping goals, if Jonathan dos Santos can play at Best XI standard again, if Victor Vazquez can stay healthy, if newcomer Samuel Grandsir can have an immediate impact, if a Homegrown player or two emerge to be regular contributors — then they can be near the top of the standings in relatively short order.

It won’t all be fixed overnight, but the combination of Vanney’s arrival and the roster re-tooling, plus hopes of bounce back seasons for several players means there is considerable optimism that the Galaxy have finally turned a page and will be elite again soon. - Alicia Rodriguez, LAG Confidential

Minnesota United

Minnesota United comes into 2021 off what is by far the club’s best season since entering MLS in 2017 and best since overall their 2012 NASL runner-up season. A Western Conference final appearance, and ultimately late loss, capped off a weird year.

While MNUFC might be lacking a major striker and scoring threat up top, they definitely aren’t lacking in other areas. The Loons’ midfield from front to back is filled with great players and depth. Adrian Heath’s typical 4-2-3-1 and alternate 4-4-2 formations gives Minnesota plenty of options with midfielders Osvaldo Alonso, Jann Gregus, Emanuel Reynoso, Ethan Finlay, Robin Lod, and Hassani Dotson leading the way. Behind them is a stout set of defenders, albeit one that may once again be lacking Ike Opara. However this defense showed in 2020 how capable they can be even without the Ace of the back line on the pitch. And clearing out the look is the 1-2 combination of goalkeepers in Dayne St. Clair and Tyler Miller. That 1-2 punch is surely the deepest set of goalkeepers in the league.

Provided the defense holds its 2020 form and Heath’s squad can create some scoring the Loons could be a threat near the top of the Western Conference and an overall fantastic team to watch in 2021. - Ashle Norling, E Pluribus Loonum

Portland Timbers

There are plenty of reasons for this, but let’s start with arguably the most important: Sebastian Blanco is back, or at least will be back soon. The best player on the Timbers was absent for the majority of the 2020 regular season, and Portland were still good enough to finish in the top three of the Western Conference. They had one of the best offenses in MLS last regular season without Seba. With Seba, they earned a Concacaf Champions League Tournament appearance thanks to Portland’s victory in the MLS is Back Tournament last August. The prospect of a Timbers squad with Blanco back is exciting in and of itself.

And there are other storylines, too. What’s going on at the No. 9 spot? Jeremy Ebobisse is a talented young player, but are the Timbers going to wind up starting Felip Mora instead? Will Father Time catch up to Diego Valeri and Diego Chara or will they continue to be two of the best in MLS history at their respective positions? Will the defense continue to give up goals in the final 15 minutes? All these questions need answering, and the best way to do so is to watch the Timbers. - Kyle Garcia, Stumptown Footy

Real Salt Lake

There’s a huge amount of untapped potential here. Albert Rusnak could be a 10-goal, 10-assist player, even if he wasn’t last year; Pablo Ruiz has been a revelation in the midfield; Rubio Rubin might prove a hugely underrated signing; and Bobby Wood could find form again.

The narratives around so many players could prove a level of excitement we haven’t felt in years, and there’s a real chance the team feels untethered from ownership. This could be the year things start to look up again. - Matt Montgomery, RSL Soapbox

San Jose Earthquakes

In the Matias Almeyda era, games have largely been goal-fests. Beyond that, the Quakes have a self-belief that can sometimes look misguided, but a decade-long track record of coming back in games, plus Almeyda’s ace man management, have combined to make this team believe they are in pretty much any game. Beyond that, Almeyda’s playing style is unique in MLS. A disciple of Marcelo Bielsa, the Earthquakes use a man-marking system and utilizew an incredibly vertical style of play.

They are far more accustomed to chaos than most teams, and while it does fall apart, spectacularly, on occasion, their frantic approach usually unsettles opponents and leads to stretches of beautiful play among the blunt force. If you are a student of tactics then Quakes games are a treat, as you watch the chess match between Almeyda and his opposite number on the other bench. - Alicia Rodriguez, Center Line Soccer

Seattle Sounders

No MLS team has enjoyed the level of sustained success as the Sounders. They’ve qualified for the playoffs in all 12 of their season, have been to 4 of the past 5 MLS Cup finals and won two league titles since Schmetzer took over midway through 2016. While every season has seen at least some turnover among the starters, this year feels different.

There’s reason for concern, but also reason to be excited. The Sounders have a host of young players who could contend for significant minutes this year and a new primary formation for the first time during their current era. If the Sounders are to continue this run of excellence, it will need to be through evolution. That should make them worth watching. - Jeremiah Oshan, Sounder at Heart

Sporting KC

It would be easy to list Alan Pulido and Johnny Russell in the attack as one reason for excitement but it might be the number of homegrowns on the roster that is the most interesting. With 10 of 27 players coming from SKC’s Academy, there will be a lot of youth. Academy products Gianluca Busio and Jaylin Lindsay are looking like regular starters and Daniel Salloi, Felipe Hernandez and Cameron Duke seem slated to get regular time so the team will be young.

But it may be Wilson Harris who scored 4 goals in the first three preseason games and scored consistently for SKC II that could be the surprise and have a breakout year. Add in Tyler Freeman, Grayson Barber and Ozzie Cisneros and there could be a youthful revolution in Kansas City for the next couple seasons. And Puldio and Russell in the attack will still be a great reason to watch as well... - Thad Bell, The Blue Testament

Vancouver Whitecaps

In the absence of an Attacking Midfield talisman, the hope is that Vancouver gets creative with how they create (I know, stick with me). Adding Bruno Gaspar gives the Whitecaps balance at fullback, something they’ve desperately needed. Meanwhile, Deiber Caicedo will complete an all-Colombian winger pairing that Marc Dos Santos has been craving since he first took the job. With these moves, all signs point to a team that is going to spend a lot of time getting busy in wide areas, and that could make for some pretty exciting football. Lurking in the box will be Canadian stallworth Lucas Cavallini. Although last year was tough for the target man, he still scored six goals in a short season, and if the service is even slightly better than last year, there’s no reason he can’t flirt with the 15-goal mark.

Finally, if the defenders and goalkeepers stay healthy, the Whitecaps could have exciting position battles at both spots. Olympic Qualifying standout Derek Cornelius is battling Serbian International Ranko Veselinovic for a place at centerback, while two young Canadians in Max Crepeau and Thomas Hasal will vie for a spot between the sticks. - Sam Rowan, 86 Forever

[footballleague0]

Kevin Pelton’s weekly mailbag, including Carmelo Anthony, superstars, and more

This week’s mailbag features your questions on the ranking of Carmelo Anthony, bad position groups on playoff teams, and more.

You can tweet your questions using the hashtag #peltonmailbag or email them to [email protected].

#peltonmailbag Do u feel the #64 ranking of #CarmeloAnthony is justified?I can’t see it. U can’t even trade 3 players ahead of him for him.

— Steven Curie (@GooniTunes) September 14, 2017

I do. First off, let’s be clear that we’re not talking the prime Carmelo Anthony that was a deserving All-Star and finished with a better ranking in previous editions of #NBArank.

Let’s take a look at the two primary components of scoring — efficiency and volume — graphically over Anthony’s career with the Knicks (starting in 2011-12, his first full season in New York).

Kevin Pelton

Oddly, Anthony’s share of the Knicks’ offense has moved downward almost in lockstep with his efficiency (measured here by true shooting percentage plus, or TS+, Anthony’s true shooting relative to league average). In 2012-13, when New York won 54 games, Anthony led the league in usage rate while still scoring at above-average efficiency. By last season, despite playing a smaller role in the Knicks’ offense, Anthony still scored with the worst relative efficiency of his NBA career.

Here are the players with the most similar seasons to Anthony’s 2016-17 in terms of usage and TS+:

Players similar to Anthony’s 2016-17 seasonPlayerSeasonUsageTS+Carmelo Anthony2016-17.293.969Andrew Wiggins2016-17.292.967Tony Campbell1989-90.290.968Baron Davis2004-05.296.973John Wall2012-13.294.974World B. Free1984-85.294.974Terry Cummings1988-89.289.965Jamal Mashburn1994-95.287.968Antoine Walker2000-01.292.975Cliff Robinson1980-81.295.975

It’s telling that besides Anthony, Terry Cummings is the only other player on this list to be chosen as an All-Star that season — and Cummings was chosen as an injury replacement. It’s also interesting to note that Cummings was the only player on the list whose team was .500 or better, showing the difficulty of building an effective offense around an inefficient, volume scorer.

Given Anthony has always been an indifferent defender, it’s difficult to make a statistical case that he’s still a top-50 player at this stage of his career. If you want to make the case that he belongs somewhere in the 51-to-60 range, that’s perhaps reasonable, particularly if you believe he can make the transition to better efficiency in a smaller role on another team. But I don’t think Anthony’s ranking should be cause for outrage if you’re evaluating his current ability rather than his legacy.

@kevinpelton Are there more superstars in the NBA today, or do I just feel that way because of recency bias? #peltonmailbag

— Todd Wight (@toddwight) September 11, 2017

The trick here is defining what constitutes a “superstar.” Unlike Penny Hardaway, I’m not going to incorporate off-court popularity as part of the definition. And because they’re constant from year to year, we can’t utilize subjective factors like All-Star appearances and All-NBA selections. So I’m going to look at players who met various thresholds of production as measured by my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric over time.

Here’s a look at three thresholds: the number of players with at least 10 WARP, at least 15 WARP and at least 20 WARP per season dating to 1977-78.

Kevin Pelton

I feel a little like Goldilocks looking at that chart. The first cutoff, 10 WARP, is too low. A couple of dozen players qualify on average; these players are stars (and typically All-Stars) but not necessarily superstars. The last cutoff, 20 WARP, is too high to be useful here; only a couple of players qualify most seasons.

(The outlier was 1989-90, when an incredible seven players surpassed 20 WARP, more than the past three seasons combined. It’s not a coincidence this came shortly before the 1992 USA Olympic men’s basketball team was nicknamed “The Dream Team.”)

That leaves 15 WARP as just right to capture superstars, as I see it. And indeed, the number of such players was up last season: 12, tied for third most behind 2001-02 (13) and 2005-06 (an improbable 16). That reversed a recent trend of decline among players with 15-plus WARP, which can be attributed largely to stars playing fewer minutes and tending to get injured more frequently.

“When the NBA addresses tanking, don’t you think they need to expand the discussion beyond draft lottery reform to also include trade reform? Allowing trades involving conditional draft picks and protected draft picks can provide the same incentive to tank as the draft lottery provides. For example, this past year, if the Los Angeles Lakers’ first-round pick had landed outside the top 3, they would have lost both their 2017 and 2019 first-round picks because of past trades. That gave them a very strong incentive to tank.”

— Russ Needler

I wouldn’t separate those two issues. While I agree that protected picks tend to often create the most blatant examples of tanking we see in the NBA, of course that’s partially because of the structure of the lottery. In a world where the Lakers wouldn’t increase their chances of securing a top-four pick by finishing with the second-worst record instead of the third-worst — as would be the case under the proposal the NBA’s board of governors will vote on later this month — there is certainly less incentive for them to lose additional games.

If the proposal is approved, it’s worth monitoring how that affects traded picks and considering additional changes to the rules.

“Listening to the Dunc’d On New Orleans Pelicans outlook with Mason Ginsberg, the glaring lack of a small forward on the roster really sticks out. What team(s) have gotten the lowest production from one position and still made the playoffs?”

— Mike Girard

Mike asked this question before the Pelicans signed Tony Allen earlier this week as another alternative at small forward, but I think it still stands. Believe it or not, the bar for the Pelicans to clear — if they make the playoffs despite as poor play from their small forwards as we expect — is actually quite high (or low).

Here are the team positions with the most negative combined WARP in a single season:

Worst position groups, playoff teams (WARP)TeamSeasonRecordPosWARPOrlando2000-0143-39C-7.5Orlando1993-9450-32PF-7.4Utah1992-9347-35SG-6.2New Jersey2004-0542-40C-5.5Utah2001-0244-38SG-5.4Since 1977-78

1. 2000-01 Orlando Magic centers (minus-7.5 WARP)

This counts John Amaechi (minus-4.6) and Michael Doleac (minus-2.9); you could also count Andrew DeClercq, who would help that rating slightly with his plus-0.4 WARP. This was all the more painful because one of the league’s better centers was Ben Wallace, who left the Magic for the Detroit Pistons via a sign-and-trade the previous summer.

2. 1993-94 Orlando Magic power forwards (minus-7.4 WARP)

The best team on this list, the Magic won 50 games with Shaquille O’Neal in his second season and the aforementioned Hardaway in his first. With Nick Anderson and Dennis Scott on the wings, Orlando had four positions covered. So when the Magic signed Horace Grant to replace the trio of Anthony Avent, Larry Krystkowiak and Jeff Turner, it helped propel them to the NBA Finals the following season.

3. 1992-93 Utah Jazz shooting guards (minus-6.2 WARP)

How does a team with John Stockton and Karl Malone in their prime win only 47 games and get bounced in the first round of the playoffs? A terrible set of shooting guards helps explain that. An aging Jeff Malone (no relation) provided nothing beyond scoring, averaging 2.4 rebounds and 0.6 steals per 36 minutes. Jay Humphries, also Stockton’s backup at point guard, started 20 games at the 2 and was little better. The next season, the Jazz swapped Malone for Jeff Hornacek in one of the most lopsided challenge trades in NBA history, setting the table for the Jazz to reach greater heights later in the 1990s.

4. 2004-05 New Jersey Nets centers (minus-5.5 WARP)

This is one case where WARP doesn’t tell the whole story. Nets center Jason Collins had minus-4.1 WARP but also rated as the NBA’s best defender, according to ESPN’s real plus-minus (plus-6.9). Collins consistently performed better in plus-minus stats than in terms of box-score output.

5. 2001-02 Utah Jazz shooting guards (minus-5.4 WARP)

Two years after Hornacek’s retirement, the Jazz found themselves back at square one at shooting guard. In his second year, prep product DeShawn Stevenson had minus-2.7 WARP. So too did John Starks, signed late in the season after being waived by the Chicago Bulls. (His whole total counts here.) Bryon Russell isn’t included, but he also played regular minutes at shooting guard and rated worse than replacement level too.

The post Kevin Pelton’s weekly mailbag, including Carmelo Anthony, superstars, and more appeared first on Daily Star Sports.

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[giantsfootball0]

Kevin Pelton’s weekly mailbag, including Carmelo Anthony, superstars, and more

This week’s mailbag features your questions on the ranking of Carmelo Anthony, bad position groups on playoff teams, and more.

You can tweet your questions using the hashtag #peltonmailbag or email them to [email protected].

#peltonmailbag Do u feel the #64 ranking of #CarmeloAnthony is justified?I can’t see it. U can’t even trade 3 players ahead of him for him.

— Steven Curie (@GooniTunes) September 14, 2017

I do. First off, let’s be clear that we’re not talking the prime Carmelo Anthony that was a deserving All-Star and finished with a better ranking in previous editions of #NBArank.

Let’s take a look at the two primary components of scoring — efficiency and volume — graphically over Anthony’s career with the Knicks (starting in 2011-12, his first full season in New York).

Kevin Pelton

Oddly, Anthony’s share of the Knicks’ offense has moved downward almost in lockstep with his efficiency (measured here by true shooting percentage plus, or TS+, Anthony’s true shooting relative to league average). In 2012-13, when New York won 54 games, Anthony led the league in usage rate while still scoring at above-average efficiency. By last season, despite playing a smaller role in the Knicks’ offense, Anthony still scored with the worst relative efficiency of his NBA career.

Here are the players with the most similar seasons to Anthony’s 2016-17 in terms of usage and TS+:

Players similar to Anthony’s 2016-17 seasonPlayerSeasonUsageTS+Carmelo Anthony2016-17.293.969Andrew Wiggins2016-17.292.967Tony Campbell1989-90.290.968Baron Davis2004-05.296.973John Wall2012-13.294.974World B. Free1984-85.294.974Terry Cummings1988-89.289.965Jamal Mashburn1994-95.287.968Antoine Walker2000-01.292.975Cliff Robinson1980-81.295.975

It’s telling that besides Anthony, Terry Cummings is the only other player on this list to be chosen as an All-Star that season — and Cummings was chosen as an injury replacement. It’s also interesting to note that Cummings was the only player on the list whose team was .500 or better, showing the difficulty of building an effective offense around an inefficient, volume scorer.

Given Anthony has always been an indifferent defender, it’s difficult to make a statistical case that he’s still a top-50 player at this stage of his career. If you want to make the case that he belongs somewhere in the 51-to-60 range, that’s perhaps reasonable, particularly if you believe he can make the transition to better efficiency in a smaller role on another team. But I don’t think Anthony’s ranking should be cause for outrage if you’re evaluating his current ability rather than his legacy.

@kevinpelton Are there more superstars in the NBA today, or do I just feel that way because of recency bias? #peltonmailbag

— Todd Wight (@toddwight) September 11, 2017

The trick here is defining what constitutes a “superstar.” Unlike Penny Hardaway, I’m not going to incorporate off-court popularity as part of the definition. And because they’re constant from year to year, we can’t utilize subjective factors like All-Star appearances and All-NBA selections. So I’m going to look at players who met various thresholds of production as measured by my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric over time.

Here’s a look at three thresholds: the number of players with at least 10 WARP, at least 15 WARP and at least 20 WARP per season dating to 1977-78.

Kevin Pelton

I feel a little like Goldilocks looking at that chart. The first cutoff, 10 WARP, is too low. A couple of dozen players qualify on average; these players are stars (and typically All-Stars) but not necessarily superstars. The last cutoff, 20 WARP, is too high to be useful here; only a couple of players qualify most seasons.

(The outlier was 1989-90, when an incredible seven players surpassed 20 WARP, more than the past three seasons combined. It’s not a coincidence this came shortly before the 1992 USA Olympic men’s basketball team was nicknamed “The Dream Team.”)

That leaves 15 WARP as just right to capture superstars, as I see it. And indeed, the number of such players was up last season: 12, tied for third most behind 2001-02 (13) and 2005-06 (an improbable 16). That reversed a recent trend of decline among players with 15-plus WARP, which can be attributed largely to stars playing fewer minutes and tending to get injured more frequently.

“When the NBA addresses tanking, don’t you think they need to expand the discussion beyond draft lottery reform to also include trade reform? Allowing trades involving conditional draft picks and protected draft picks can provide the same incentive to tank as the draft lottery provides. For example, this past year, if the Los Angeles Lakers’ first-round pick had landed outside the top 3, they would have lost both their 2017 and 2019 first-round picks because of past trades. That gave them a very strong incentive to tank.”

— Russ Needler

I wouldn’t separate those two issues. While I agree that protected picks tend to often create the most blatant examples of tanking we see in the NBA, of course that’s partially because of the structure of the lottery. In a world where the Lakers wouldn’t increase their chances of securing a top-four pick by finishing with the second-worst record instead of the third-worst — as would be the case under the proposal the NBA’s board of governors will vote on later this month — there is certainly less incentive for them to lose additional games.

If the proposal is approved, it’s worth monitoring how that affects traded picks and considering additional changes to the rules.

“Listening to the Dunc’d On New Orleans Pelicans outlook with Mason Ginsberg, the glaring lack of a small forward on the roster really sticks out. What team(s) have gotten the lowest production from one position and still made the playoffs?”

— Mike Girard

Mike asked this question before the Pelicans signed Tony Allen earlier this week as another alternative at small forward, but I think it still stands. Believe it or not, the bar for the Pelicans to clear — if they make the playoffs despite as poor play from their small forwards as we expect — is actually quite high (or low).

Here are the team positions with the most negative combined WARP in a single season:

Worst position groups, playoff teams (WARP)TeamSeasonRecordPosWARPOrlando2000-0143-39C-7.5Orlando1993-9450-32PF-7.4Utah1992-9347-35SG-6.2New Jersey2004-0542-40C-5.5Utah2001-0244-38SG-5.4Since 1977-78

1. 2000-01 Orlando Magic centers (minus-7.5 WARP)

This counts John Amaechi (minus-4.6) and Michael Doleac (minus-2.9); you could also count Andrew DeClercq, who would help that rating slightly with his plus-0.4 WARP. This was all the more painful because one of the league’s better centers was Ben Wallace, who left the Magic for the Detroit Pistons via a sign-and-trade the previous summer.

2. 1993-94 Orlando Magic power forwards (minus-7.4 WARP)

The best team on this list, the Magic won 50 games with Shaquille O’Neal in his second season and the aforementioned Hardaway in his first. With Nick Anderson and Dennis Scott on the wings, Orlando had four positions covered. So when the Magic signed Horace Grant to replace the trio of Anthony Avent, Larry Krystkowiak and Jeff Turner, it helped propel them to the NBA Finals the following season.

3. 1992-93 Utah Jazz shooting guards (minus-6.2 WARP)

How does a team with John Stockton and Karl Malone in their prime win only 47 games and get bounced in the first round of the playoffs? A terrible set of shooting guards helps explain that. An aging Jeff Malone (no relation) provided nothing beyond scoring, averaging 2.4 rebounds and 0.6 steals per 36 minutes. Jay Humphries, also Stockton’s backup at point guard, started 20 games at the 2 and was little better. The next season, the Jazz swapped Malone for Jeff Hornacek in one of the most lopsided challenge trades in NBA history, setting the table for the Jazz to reach greater heights later in the 1990s.

4. 2004-05 New Jersey Nets centers (minus-5.5 WARP)

This is one case where WARP doesn’t tell the whole story. Nets center Jason Collins had minus-4.1 WARP but also rated as the NBA’s best defender, according to ESPN’s real plus-minus (plus-6.9). Collins consistently performed better in plus-minus stats than in terms of box-score output.

5. 2001-02 Utah Jazz shooting guards (minus-5.4 WARP)

Two years after Hornacek’s retirement, the Jazz found themselves back at square one at shooting guard. In his second year, prep product DeShawn Stevenson had minus-2.7 WARP. So too did John Starks, signed late in the season after being waived by the Chicago Bulls. (His whole total counts here.) Bryon Russell isn’t included, but he also played regular minutes at shooting guard and rated worse than replacement level too.

The post Kevin Pelton’s weekly mailbag, including Carmelo Anthony, superstars, and more appeared first on Daily Star Sports.

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[chapulana]

What if Postseason Winners Got to Draft Postseason Losers?

The MLB playoffs had not changed its format for the past 13 years. This season, however, we will see a “minor” change taking place during the World Series. The home field advantage will belong to the team with the best regular season record, thus ending the already established tradition of it pertaining to the conference that won the All-Star game in July. As this is not a mind-blowing change, I’m here to propose something much more interesting that will probably never happen, but still.

What if after each round of the postseason, from the wildcard games to the conference championships, the players of each losing team entered a pool from which the winning teams could draft some of them for the next round of the playoffs?

First of all, we must recognize that we hate when a player gets injured and misses playing time. Was it in our hands, we’ll put our favorite players on the field for the 162 games, make them bat first, get as much plate appearances as possible and see their numbers grow during the summer and into the autumn with pleasure. Even more, how frustrating is when one of our favorite players or just one of the best players of the game (hello, Mike Trout!) is stuck in a franchise that never ever makes it to the postseason or that every time it does seems to not being able to advance past the first round?

On top of this, there is the seeding and the way we watch underdogs trying to beat the odds and outplay the best teams of the regular season on a yearly basis, which in all honesty is nothing crazy given how much of a lottery the game becomes once we reach October. Wouldn’t it be great to do something to even the field a little and make the “bad” teams get –more– on pair with the “good” teams during the playoffs?

Enter the Losers-Turned-Into-Winners Draft! Let’s explain the basics and then run some historical simulations based on them.

The idea behind this system is pretty simple. As things are nowadays, the best team from each division of the American and National Leagues automatically makes the playoffs, followed by two wildcard teams that can come from any of the divisions and are determined by their record during the regular season. We can, therefore, assume that the two wildcard teams from each league, which have a round of the postseason exclusively dedicated to them, are the two worst teams from each side of the bracket. Once a winner is named, that team advances to the Divisional Series and faces the best-seeded divisional champion. Seeds number two and three also go against each other, and after that, the Championship Series of each league comes to fruition to determine who will face who in the World Series. What I propose is to take advantage of the seeds assigned to each team at the start of the postseason, and play a two-round draft after each round of the playoffs is finalized, with the pecking order going from worst-to-best remaining seeds. Each team would be able to pick two players, no restrictions applied to their position (so they can pick two batters, two pitchers, or a combination of both), and players from all losing teams would be available at the draft for any team, no matter the League they play for. Once a draft is completed, the players left unselected are removed from the pool, so players not selected during the draft held after the Wild Card round are no longer available for the draft held after the Divisional Series, and so on.

This system will solve some of the problems fans need to deal with during each season and most of all will make playoffs as exciting and competitive as they get. Every star player will get far more chances to win the World Series (who is going to pass on Kershaw if the Dodgers fall at any point?) during his career, players wouldn’t mind re-signing long-term deals with the franchises they’ve always played for as they would “only” need to reach the postseason in order to have a shot at the title from multiple angles and not only depending on the success of their team, low seeded teams (supposedly worst than the rest of the field) would have influxes of talent as long as they progress as they would pick first on those drafts, and fans will have even more events to get excited about during an already exciting time as the postseason is. Don’t fool yourself, this is a win-win masterplan!

Let’s take a look at how the 2016 MLB Postseason could have changed had this draft-system being in place. To not make this too confusing, we will leave the results of each round as they were without taking into account the players taking by each team after each round’s draft. We would comment on how those picks could have affected the outcome of the playoffs, though.

The Wild Card round made Toronto face Baltimore for a place in the AL Divisional Series against Texas. In the National League, San Francisco had to play against New York to keep alive. After those two games were played, the Blue Jays and the Giants made it to the second round. What would have this meant in our loser-draft system? Given the regular season results, San Francisco (.537 W-L%) would have picked first and Toronto (.549 W-L%) second in a draft with a pool made out of the rosters of both the Mets and Orioles. Without much thinking applied to player valuations, these would have been the best-WAR players available per Baseball-Reference.com:

Manny Machado, 3B (BAL): 6.7 WAR

Noah Syndergaard, P (NYM): 5.3 WAR

Zach Britton, P (BAL): 4.3 WAR

Kevin Gausman, P (BAL): 4.2 WAR

Chris Tillman, P (BAL): 4.1 WAR

Jacob deGrom, P (NYM): 3.8 WAR

Bartolo Colon, P (NYM): 3.4 WAR

Chris Davis, 1B (BAL): 3.0 WAR

Yoenis Céspedes, LF (NYM): 2.9 WAR

Asdrúbal Cabrera, SS (NYM): 2.7 WAR

With a rotation already featuring Cueto, Bumgarner, and Samardzija among others, San Francisco could have added Manny Machado to replace Conor Gillespie (1.1 WAR). Toronto may have followed that selection with that of Syndergaard (back up north!) in order to improve their rotation for the Divisional Series and the last two picks could have gone either way with top-notch players on the board (San Francisco could have gone Yoenis’ way to move from Angel Pagan and Toronto with Chris Davis to replace Justin Smoak at first). If that is not an improvement you tell me what is it.

Moving onto the Divisional Round, the Dodgers, Cubs, Indians and Blue Jays defeated the Nationals, Giants, Red Sox and Rangers respectively. In this case, both Machado and Céspedes would become available again and enter the draft pool for the remaining four teams. This again goes in favor of star players, as they would keep moving onto later rounds if they’re still good enough as to keep being selected round after round, and we all want to watch the best players competing at the highest stakes. These are the second round best available players, again per Baseball-Reference.com WAR (keep in mind all players from New York and Baltimore, barring those selected by San Francisco –now eliminated from contention– are no longer available):

Mookie Betts, RF (BOS): 9.5 WAR

Manny Machado, 3B (BAL/SFG): 6.7 WAR

Adrian Beltre, 3B (TEX): 6.5 WAR

Max Scherzer, P (WSN): 6.2 WAR

Dustin Pedroia, 2B (BOS): 5.7 WAR

Johnny Cueto, P (SFG): 5.6 WAR

Tanner Roark, P (WSN): 5.5 WAR

Jackie Bradley, CF (BOS): 5.3 WAR

Rick Porcello, P (BOS): 5.1 WAR

David Ortiz, 1B/DH (BOS): 5.1 WAR

Madison Bumgarner, P (SFG): 5 WAR

Cole Hamels, P (TEX): 5 WAR

Buster Posey, C (SFG): 4.6 WAR

Daniel Murphy, 2B (WSN): 4.6 WAR

Brandon Crawford, SS (SFG): 4.5 WAR

By this point, and looking at the regular season results, the seeding for the draft would make teams pick in the following order: Toronto (.549 W-L%), Los Angeles (.562), Cleveland (.584) and Chicago (.640). Judging by the wild card draft picks already made by the Blue Jays and the rest of their roster, we may infer their first pick would be Mookie Betts to replace Michael Saunders at left field. Los Angeles would probably look to improve their offense with their first pick, which could have been Dustin Pedroia in order to remove Utley from the lineup. Cleveland, given their not-so-great pitching staff, would have selected Scherzer in a hurry and Chicago may have closed the first round of selections with that of Buster Posey to get aging David Ross off behind the plate.

With pretty much every roster spot already stacked for every team, the second round would become some sort of a best-available-pick affair. I’m betting on Toronto getting Manny Machado and finding a spot for him taking advantage of the designated hitter slot in the lineup. The Dodgers could improve their pitching rotation with the addition of Johnny Cueto. Cleveland’s outfield would welcome the addition of Jackie Bradley more than anything. And finally, the Cubs would close this round by going the pitching route and picking Madison Bumgarner.

Without taking those additions into account and respecting what happened in real-world MLB, after the Divisional Round finished the two teams making the World Series for the 2016 season were the Chicago Cubs and the Cleveland Indians, which means every player from Toronto’s and Los Angeles’ rosters (including those being picked in the first two drafts) become available in the final postseason draft event. Let’s take a look at the best players on the board by their regular season WAR:

Mookie Betts, RF (BOS/TOR): 9.5 WAR

Josh Donaldson, 3B (TOR): 7.5 WAR

Manny Machado, 3B (BAL/SFG/TOR): 6.7 WAR

Corey Seager, 3B (LAD): 6.1 WAR

Dustin Pedroia, 2B (BOS/LAD): 5.7 WAR

Johnny Cueto, P (SFG/LAD): 5.6 WAR

Clayton Kershaw, P (LAD): 5.6 WAR

Noah Syndergaard, P (NYM/TOR): 5.3 WAR

Justin Turner, 3B (LAD): 5.1 WAR

Aaron Sanchez, P (TOR): 4.9 WAR

J.A. Happ, P (TOR): 4.5 WAR

Edwin Encarnación, 1B/DH (TOR): 3.7 WAR

Marco Estrada, P (TOR): 3.5 WAR

Joc Pederson, CF (LAD): 3.4 WAR

Kevin Pillar, CF (TOR): 3.4 WAR

As can be seen, five of the best fifteen players available come from teams already out of contention, with Manny Machado being the only one having made it through the first two postseason drafts by going from Baltimore to San Francisco to Toronto, which proves his value among his peers. The Blue Jays, both from their original roster and their picks, provide nine of the fifteen players while the Dodgers only add four original men and two acquired through the draft.

In terms of what Chicago and Cleveland could do in order to create the best possible roster with the World Series in mind, multiple approaches could be taken by them. Both teams made the finals without playing in the World Series so they only have two draftees each between their players –not that they need much more–. As Cleveland finished the season with the worst record, the Indians would pick first and they’d probably take Clayton Kershaw because you just simply don’t pass on the best pitcher of his era. Chicago’s pitching is already stacked so they would probably look at the outfield and bring Mookie Betts in. Jose Ramirez had a great season for Cleveland in 2016, and it would be hard for the Indians to leave Donaldson on the board although they may look at the outfield options and pick someone like Pillar or Pederson to get Lonnie Chisenhall out of the lineup. Let’s go Joc Pederson here. Finally, Chicago would close the draft by taking Johnny Cueto as they don’t even have holes to fill in their offense at this point.

And with this third and final couple of draft rounds the postseason would end in a World Series win for the Cubs over the Indians in a series that would feature two incredibly great teams that through the course of the playoffs would have added the names of Betts, Scherzer, Cueto, Kershaw, Bradley, Bumgarner, Posey and Pederson to their rosters. Are you telling me those eight players wouldn’t make the final meetings of the season much more exciting that they could ever be? While I haven’t applied much thought to each selection and I’ve based them mostly on each player’s WAR or flagrant team needs, the process could turn into a really tough war between teams at the time of picking players not only for their benefit but also to block other franchises from taking them and improving spots where they may lack a player of certain quality, be it in their hitting lineup or in their pitching rotation.

This winners-draft-losers type of draft will probably (definitely) never happen. There would be much trouble implementing it and a lot of collateral implications that make it impossible to be a real thing. But hey, at least we can dream of a parallel world where Mike Trout could reach the World Series each and every seas– oh, yes, I forgot he plays for the Angels…

#Writing #Baseball #MLB #Holyfield

[truesportsfan]

Winners and losers of the 2020 NHL trade deadline

The 2020 NHL Trade Deadline has come and gone. Which teams came out as the winners and the losers of this season’s deadline?

Who said this years trade deadline was going to be boring?

Over the past few years, the NHL trade deadline has usually been disappointing. This year however, was not the case. There were 32 trades on trade deadline day this year, crushing every other deadline from the last decade. The story for the most part remained the same. Buyers spent future assets in order to win a Stanley Cup now, while the sellers looked build their teams for the future.

Plenty of teams made moves in order to bolster their chances at a Stanley Cup or build a foundation for the future, however some teams did much better than others. Which ones came out as the winners and losers of this season’s trade deadline? Let’s take a look.

Photo by Paul Bereswill/Getty Images

Winners

Pittsburgh Penguins

Being a Penguins fan must be the best feeling in the world. Once again they are going all-in at a chance at a Stanley Cup, this time making a trade with the Minnesota Wild to acquire Jason Zucker. The price they had to pay was a bit expensive, giving up one of their best prospects in Calen Addison and their first-round pick, but where the Penguins championship window is right now, that’s a price they will no qualms paying in order to win a fourth Stanley Cup in the Crosby-Malkin era. Better yet, Zucker is under contract for three more years after this season.

The Penguins also added to their offense with two more trades on deadline day. They brought in Patrick Marleau to give him one last chance at a Stanley Cup in exchange for a third round pick to bolster their scoring depth. Conor Sheary is also back in town, as he and Evan Rodrigues were packaged in a deal for Dominik Kahun.

Since the Zucker trade, they have placed him on the top line with Crosby, and it’s been a perfect fit. The Penguins have already stormed back to battle with the Washington Capitals for the division lead. Though they have lost four straight heading into the deadline, a team this good won’t stay down for long, and nobody will want any part of them in the playoffs.

New Jersey Devils

This season has been one failure after another for New Jersey, After the firing of Ray Shero in January, expectations for the Devils at the trade deadline were low after already dealing Taylor Hall. However, interim GM Tom Fitzgerald went wheeling and dealing leading up to the deadline, and set up his team wonderfully for the future.

Andy Greene was the first one traded, as he was sent to the the New York Islanders for a second-round pick in 2021 and David Quenneville. Greene was the captain in New Jersey, but that level of return for a 37-year-old on his last legs is borderline wizardry from Fitzgerald. In the same day, Blake Coleman was traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning for a monstrous return including the Vancouver Canucks first-round pick and Nolan Foote, which arguably a better return than they got for Taylor Hall in December.

On deadline day, New Jersey moved Wayne Simmonds to Buffalo for a 2021 conditional fifth-round pick. Then right at the buzzer, Sami Vatanen was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes, but had the return stifled due to Vatanen being out until early March.

The Devils now potentially have three first-round picks in the stacked 2020 NHL draft, and their search for another general manager looks to be over after the solid moves Fitzgerald made. Even though the expectation of making the playoffs crashed and burned, this deadline has been a pretty nice consolation prize.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers finally went out and got the depth that the team has been needing for years. The trade for Andreas Athanasiou finally gives Connor McDavid a winger that can not only keep up with him, but is almost just as fast. Those two on the ice at the same time is going to be an unmitigated nightmare for defenses across the league. With McDavid and Draisaitl running their own lines with talented wingers, they might both reach new heights that might’ve never seemed possible.

The additions of Mike Green and Tyler Ennis are also fantastic depth pickups, and can help push some of talent down the roster as well. Edmonton managed to hang onto their first round pick too, which is something that Holland stressed before the deadline. All around, a just about perfect deadline for an Oilers that’s needed all the depth it could get for a long time now.

Ilya Kovalchuk

Alex Ovechkin and Ilya Kovalchuk are going to play on the same team. That alone makes this a win for every NHL fan. It may be a decade too late, but it’s still two of the best Russian hockey players of all time getting together for a chance at a Stanley Cup. Considering where Kovalchuk was at the start of the season in Los Angeles, it’s amazing that everything was worked out this well for him. Now he has the chance he’s always wanted by playing for a Stanley Cup contender, but also with his best friend.

As for the Capitals themselves, there is no problem to be had with the adding Kovalchuk at the deadline. It’s essentially a no-risk depth move to help inject some offense into the Capitals’ bottom-six forward group. With the Canadiens retaining 50 percent of Kovalchuk’s salary, he only costs $350,000 against the salary cap, which as small a cap hit you can possibly get. Even if Kovalchuk is a total bust in Washington, he’s on a two-way contract, and can be sent to the minors without waivers.

Carolina Hurricanes

I think the argument can start to be made that Don Waddell is one of the best general managers in the NHL. The Carolina Hurricanes came out of the trade deadline as not just a winner, but The Winner. Acquiring Vincent Trocheck from Florida finally got them the center depth that they’ve needed on offense for some time now, and took advantage of his down season to pry him out of Florida for a reasonable price. For the next three seasons, their center depth looks like Sebastian Aho, Trocheck, and Jordan Staal. That’s the kind of depth that can bring home a Stanley Cup.

Adding Sami Vatanen and Brady Skjei were also great pickups on defense with Dougie Hamilton out for the season. It took a first-rounder to pry a long-struggling Skjei from the Rangers, but if he thrives under a new system, that will turn into a bargain with his contract still having four seasons left. Even with all these moves, the Hurricanes still have five picks in the first three rounds of the draft.

Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Losers

Florida Panthers

The Florida Panthers are clearly sick of not getting results and still being on the outside of the playoffs, and now they’re starting to make emotional moves in order to just get something done. Trading Vincent Trocheck, who’s been having a great year everywhere except in the point totals, was an awful idea. Sure they got an alright return, but they gave up the far and away best player in the deal when the goal is to make the playoffs right now. Not to mention that it’s not at all Trocheck’s fault that the Panthers are struggling, it’s Sergei Bobrovsky who hasn’t been able to stop a beach ball for most of the season, despite getting paid $10 million a season for the next seven years.

If the Panthers do end up missing the playoffs once again this year, Dale Tallon in all likelihood will be out of a job, and at this point it’ll be justified. He’s had plenty of opportunity to build a playoff team, but these moves are just not working. This Trocheck trade is just another example of that.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost a professional hockey game to a 42-year-old zamboni driver who works for their minor league team. Then they didn’t do anything of note at the trade deadline besides some minor league deals and retaining 50 percent of Robin Lehner‘s salary for a fifth-round pick. What Toronto needed was some kind of jolt, but there are seemingly no repercussions for one of the most embarrassing losses in franchise history

They extended Jake Muzzin for four years, but that was going to happen regardless. Tyson Barrie is now free to walk away for nothing at the end of the season, and they’re no stronger as the playoff race gets tighter and tighter.

Will they make the playoffs? Maybe. Are they going to get past Boston or Tampa Bay in round one? Maybe, but it would take a miracle with the way this team plays. Missing the playoffs or a fourth straight first round exit will require a massive shakeup in the offseason, because this group has not proved that they can get it done once.

Buffalo Sabres

Apparently Buffalo thinks that they’re still playoff contenders? That’s only explanation I can think of for refusing to sell and trading for Wayne Simmonds at the deadline. Though according to any basic common sense or prediction model, the Sabres need both a perfect run down the stretch and an unparalleled amount of luck to sneak into that third spot in the Atlantic.

Simmonds isn’t even the kind of player that can carry a team to a playoff spot. They paid next to nothing to get him, but that’s not the point and he’s a perfectly fine complimentary piece, but that’s not what the Sabres need right now. They still need a second-line center of the future, and this team is clearly not ready for any sort of playoff competition, even if they do luck their way in.

Sabres fans are sick of this team right now, and understandably so. They’ve given so much to this franchise and they deserve so much better. Simmonds is not taking them to the playoffs, and now they have five pending unrestricted free agents that can all just walk for nothing. Barring a miracle, Jason Botterill is likely one of the next general managers on the unemployment line.

Joe Thornton

While Patrick Marleau and Ilya Kovalchuk will be chasing their chance at a Stanley Cup, Joe Thornton will be sitting on the sidelines once the playoffs roll around as the Sharks couldn’t work out a trade in time before the deadline.

Thornton signed a one-year contract at the beginning of the season in order to chase one last chance at a Stanley Cup with the San Jose Sharks. But this Sharks season has sunk like a rock right from the start, and have been well out of the playoff race for months. If Thornton wanted to win a Stanley Cup, it wouldn’t be on San Jose anymore. The decision was rumored to be entirely up to him, and it seems that he decided to go to a contender.

The Sharks were able to work a trade to send Marleau to Pittsburgh, a trade to Dallas fell through for Thornton, and he was left on the bottoming out Sharks with no hope of a Stanley Cup maybe ever again. If this is the end of Thornton’s career, it’s a shame that it had to fizzle out with a whimper.

The entire Central Division

So much for the Central Division arms race at the deadline. Between all three of the Stanley Cup contenders in Central, there was only two moves made the entire month that can be considered upgrades.

After months of rumors that the Blues were serious about a repeat and were in on the likes of Taylor Hall and Chris Kreider, they ended up standing pat, only adding Marco Scandella to the defense. The Avalanche had tons of cap space and plenty of assets, yet only acquired Vladislav Namestnikov on deadline day, potentially squandering such a rare opportunity. The Dallas Stars just did nothing at all, despite being rumored to be after Joe Thornton.

In the playoff hunt, the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets barely tweaked around the edges, and committed to neither buying or selling at such an important time. Nashville had valuable upcoming free agents, but if they’re serious about the playoffs, then some kind of move to find some consistency would’ve been appreciated. Winnipeg made depth moves for Dylan DeMelo and Cody Eakin, but their defense is still the worst in the league.

But the biggest loser of perhaps the entire trade deadline was the Chicago Blackhawks. They traded Robin Lehner to the Vegas Golden Knights for such a minuscule haul, that you wonder what the point even was? Especially since Lehner offered to take a discount on a three-year contract.

Next: Grading every NHL team’s 2020 trade deadline deals

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source https://truesportsfan.com/sport-today/winners-and-losers-of-the-2020-nhl-trade-deadline/