#but Id still bet the house that dems will win the senate and governor races | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

megahedgehogx · 4 years

Text

It’s Time For The Left To Revolt

When the reality of Donald Trump’s election started to sink in late in 2016, those of us who were stunned and horrified by the specter of a Trump presidency consoled ourselves in various ways. One thing we turned to was the fact that our democracy had endured for over 240 years. Years that had seen upheaval and threats that most of us could never fathom. World wars that killed millions, global depression, a civil conflict whose scars we bear to this day. Surely, a republic that had survived such daunting challenges could survive Trump. Oh sure, it would be strained. Trump would overreach. He would do some damage. But our democracy would prevail, just as it always had. It had to. Right?

Here we are, over 3 years later, and I’m deeply saddened to say that it has not. Our republic is gone. When Trump can brazenly extort political favors from a foreign power, and be acquitted with a single dissenting Republican vote, our republic is gone. When the GOP-controlled Senate has willingly abdicated its Constitutional duty to check the president’s power, and now openly works hand-in-hand with him to subvert justice, our democracy is gone. When one of our 2 political parties has become a cult of personality with contempt for democracy and zero tolerance for empirical reality, our republic is gone. When that same party refuses to secure our elections and actively solicits foreign interference because it helps them stay in power, our republic is gone. When many of our fellow citizens proudly state they would rather align with our adversaries than a Democrat, our republic is gone.

I’m a politics junkie. I love following elections. Yet as I watch the same anchors poring over the same tired electoral debates as if nothing’s changed, I want to shout at the TV: what does all this matter if we can’t trust the election returns? And more importantly, what does it matter if our republic is already lost? Elections only work in a country with rule of law and respect for institutions. We don’t have those things anymore.

And the sad truth is that, even if the Democrats manage to overcome the rampant voter suppression and the GOP’s all-out disinformation campaign, it may not be enough. Our voting machines can be easily hacked – because the GOP refuses to secure them. One skilled hacker could manipulate a few thousand votes and flip the whole election, and we would never know. And even if Dems win the popular vote, as we have in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections, we may still lose. It’s happened twice in the last 20 years. Ah, the electoral college, the GOP’s gift that keeps on giving. (Side note to the left: Stop talking about constitutional amendments to get rid of this or anything else. They’re never going to happen, and you know it.) And then there is the very real possibility that Trump refuses to concede defeat if he loses. All bets are off then.

In short, even if we win, we still could well lose. That is the reality that I implore my friends on the left to understand. And I ask you, what is the plan if we wake up on November 4th and Trump is still president? If Democrats can no longer win an election because the GOP has permanently corrupted the system, what then?

In April 2016, George W. Bush told former aides that he feared he would be the last Republican president. Now the script has completely flipped, and I am genuinely worried Barack Obama could be our last Democratic president. Ever. You can throw your talking points about changing demographics saving the Democrats in the garbage. Millennials have a pathetic voting record and will continue to do so (and by the way, white Millennials went for Trump in 2016). Combine that with rampant GOP cheating and foreign interference, and there goes your whole argument that the GOP is in a “demographic death spiral” (to quote Lindsey Graham before he went total Trump-ass kisser). The GOP is thriving and will continue to thrive for the foreseeable future. Changing demographics aren’t going to save us, folks.

I fear Democrats may have to lose this election for this sad truth to finally hit them. Maybe them, faced with another 4 years of Trump and the grueling existential dread he evokes every day, will they realize that it’s time to stop fighting the last war. Maybe then they’ll realize that the game has changed, and we need a completely new strategy. Maybe then.

Our rapid slide into authoritarianism reveals just how fragile the threads holding society together are. The rules we live by only work when everyone chooses to follow them. We can’t have democracy if half of the country doesn’t want it. This isn’t academic. It’s reality. Republicans don’t want rule of law. They don’t want fair elections. From openly admitting the true purpose of gerrymandering and voter ID laws, to stripping the powers of incoming Democratic governors, the GOP has shown how much it truly despises democracy. They know most people hate their ideas and they can’t win fair and square. So they have cheated for years with incredible success. Meanwhile, Democrats have been asleep at the wheel, apathetic, smoked in one race after another, seemingly oblivious to the simple concept of voting reliably in order to maintain power.

But as grim as the picture is, this piece isn’t intended to be a big pity party. Rather, I want it to be a call to arms for the left. We need to do 3 things:

1. Recognize that our republic is gone (for now);

2. Revolt against authoritarianism; and

3. Fight to restore our republic

I fear that first step will be the hardest. I still sense most on the left don’t want to admit that we’ve become a dictatorship. Most pundits, elected officials, and rank-and-file Democrats proceed with a distressing lack of urgency, still convinced that Trump is an aberration, still strategizing about delegates and electoral politics, apparently unaware the other side is no longer playing the game. Exhibit A: no Democratic presidential candidate has offered any plan of how they’ll respond when Trump refuses to concede the election if he loses. As if meaningless platitudes like “we have to win big” or “the military will drag him out” are somehow going to save us when Trump has masterfully consolidated power, when rule of law is collapsing all around us, when norm after norm has been shattered. It’s infuriating.

Part 2 is the most important part. The left needs to revolt. To fight back. To PLAY DIRTY, the way Republicans always do. Democrats have stubbornly refused to do this for decades, and it’s cost us 1,000 state legislature seats, the Supreme Court, the Senate, the White House – everything. Dems can’t do that anymore. Enough of the “they go low, we go high” crap. It doesn’t work.

So how can we do this? Here are three ideas to start. I suspect there are many others that people far wiser than me can come up with:

· Defy the Supreme Court. After all, that’s exactly what some on the right advocated in 2015 when same-sex marriage became law of the land, so we’re just following their precedent. Except now we actually have a rational argument: Justices Gorsuch and Kavanaugh were appointed by a President, and confirmed by a Senate, who have committed treason, conspired with our enemies, and violated their oaths to the Constitution. Thus, those Justices votes aren’t legitimate, and Americans have a moral duty to defy rulings from a Court that has become corrupt.

When the Court tells blue states we have to stop performing abortions, or we have to let corporations dump their toxic shit in our water, or we have to rescind the marriage licenses of every same-sex couple, our response should be the same response Trump and his GOP cronies have given to every Democratic subpoena: MAKE US. If we can refuse to cooperate with ICE, we can refuse to cooperate with the Supreme Court. If Mitch McConnell can flagrantly ignore every rule he doesn’t like, then blue states can start doing the same.

· Sustained mass protests and civil disobedience. I read a TIME article recently about the protests in Hong Kong. Reading the words of 16-year-olds staring down a brutal authoritarian regime, stating they were ready to die to preserve their city’s freedom, was incredible. Juxtapose that with the apathy of Americans, who have taken their rights for granted for so long we don’t even remember why we fought for them, who sit glued to our phones while our democracy dies, and we should be utterly ashamed.

It’s time for the left to move beyond moping. We need to start getting pissed off and taking to the streets in large numbers, day after day. Remember all those big public displays of anger and unrest early in Trump’s term? The Women’s March? The protests at airports? Those seem like ancient history.

If people in Hong Kong and Barcelona and Jakarta can take to the streets, can show incredible resilience and courage in far more dangerous places than here, can force oppressive governments to change, then so can we. And we don’t need another Occupy Wall Street, a directionless, pointless exercise that achieved nothing but making progressives feel good about themselves. We need movements with clearly stated goals. We need to start exercising the kind of discipline and long-term planning that the right has been so good at.

· Blue states have to mimic red states’ power plays. Gerrymander the shit out of districts to benefit Democrats. Close polling places in rural district where GOP voters live. Pass laws saying gun licenses are insufficient ID to register to vote. We need to hold on to what little islands of power we have left.

I’ll be the first to admit that this plan is far from ideal, that the possibility of ugly confrontation is real. I hate advocating for the same dirty tricks that the GOP has used. I wish there were another option. But I don’t see one. The prospects of beating Trump in November are dubious at best. This is the country we have now. Democrats can either start fighting fire with fire, or they can keep losing and let fascism continue its relentless march across our country. I much prefer the former.

I can already hear the protestations from my friends on the left:

“But then we’ll be just as bad as them!”

“We can’t give up on democracy!”

“This will just make things worse and lead to total chaos!”

I understand the sentiment. But I don’t buy it. Look around you, folks – we’re already in total chaos. Just because the buses are still running and the same stupid shows are on TV, doesn’t mean it’s still the America we used to have. It’s not. In its Machiavellian quest for power and its total capitulation to Trump, the GOP has made sure of that. And as far as being as bad as them, GOOD. I don’t give a shit about being “better” than Republicans. I care about beating their asses in November 2020, and every election thereafter.

Despite how pessimistic I may sound, I don’t want us to give up on our republic altogether. Because I want that America back so bad. I want the America where a president respected the Supreme Court’s decision, even if he didn’t like it. I want the America where both parties had respect for the rule of law and put the good of the country ahead of their own re-election. I want the America back where right and left didn’t view each other as evil, as subhuman, as existential threats. I want the America back where Ruth Bader Ginsburg could be confirmed 96-3 in the Senate, because Senators put aside their personal beliefs and voted for someone who was clearly qualified and would respect the Constitution.

So, yes, let’s try to restore our democracy. Let’s try like hell to win back the White House and Senate this year, as stacked against us as the deck is. Let’s talk to our Trump-supporting family and friends – not about politics, because that doesn’t work. But talk to them about anything else, so that we can chip away ever-so-slightly at the wall of tribalism that has divided us. But in the meantime, we have to accept the country that we now have and start fighting back. I’m tired of losing. I’m tired of the other side having all the power and getting away with everything. I’m tired of the left having nothing to celebrate but bullshit symbolic victories (“Omg, Pelosi tore up the speech!! Now things will REALLY start to change!!”). I’m tired of our side being weak, being bland, being 20 steps behind the GOP all the time, being unwilling to do what it takes to win. I’m mad as hell, and I’m not going to take it anymore. Who’s with me?

0 notes

theliberaltony · 5 years

Link

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Stacey Abrams. Joaquin Castro. Steve Bullock. Some potentially strong Democratic candidates have passed on runs for the Senate, dashing Democratic hopes in several GOP-leaning states, including Georgia, Texas and Montana.

However, it’s not that surprising that they and other Democrats don’t want to wage Senate campaigns in red states. And that’s because there’s a really good chance they might lose.

Remember that in 2016, for the first time,1 every Senate race was won by the same party that won the presidential vote in that state. In a polarized era full of straight-ticket voters, this is no doubt a prime consideration when potential candidates are deciding whether to run. And as the table below shows, by our count, there’s at least one major Democratic player who has publicly said he or she won’t seek a Republican-held Senate seat in six states that President Trump won in 2016.

Some Democrats are passing on Senate races in red states

GOP-leaning states where high-profile Democrats have said they won’t run for a Republican-held Senate seat in 2020

State Dem. who passed on running GOP Incumbent State Partisan Lean Trump 2016 margin NC Josh Stein Thom Tillis R+5 +3.7 IA Cindy Axne, Tom Vilsack Joni Ernst R+6 +9.4 AZ* Ruben Gallego Martha McSally R+9 +3.5 GA Stacey Abrams David Perdue R+12 +5.1 TX Beto O’Rourke, Joaquin Castro John Cornyn R+17 +9.0 MT Steve Bullock Steve Daines R+18 +20.2

* Special election

FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Technically, these partisan leans are from the 2018 cycle; we haven’t calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan lean for 2020 yet.

Sources: Media Reports, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

So, why are these Democrats deciding not to run?

Let’s start by looking at Georgia, where Abrams declined to run, and Texas, where both Castro and Beto O’Rourke passed. Each is a red state that has shown signs of becoming less Republican but consistently backs GOP candidates in presidential and Senate elections. Abrams and O’Rourke both lost close races during the Democratic-leaning 2018 midterms (for governor and Senate, respectively), but mounting a Senate campaign in 2020, when the national political environment is likely to be more neutral, may be even tougher. O’Rourke opted to run for president instead of taking on Republican Sen. John Cornyn. Rather than challenge GOP Sen. David Perdue, Abrams is also considering running for president, although she is reportedly eyeing a gubernatorial run in 2022 as well.) Castro, a U.S. House member and the brother of Democratic presidential candidate Julian Castro, would have had to give up a safely Democratic House seat to run for Senate.

In Montana, Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock might have been able to compete with incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines. In 2016, Bullock won reelection by 4 points, while Trump won the state by 20 points. But given Montana’s very Republican partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole),2 Bullock would probably be better off waiting for a midterm cycle, preferably with an unpopular Republican president. That was the situation when Montana’s Democratic senator, Jon Tester, first won his seat, in 2006 — and when he won reelection for the second time, in 2018. Bullock is rumored to be preparing for a presidential run.

Based on its partisan lean, North Carolina could be the most competitive state among the six we’re looking at here. But Attorney General Josh Stein — perhaps Democrats’ top choice — opted against challenging Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Stein may be angling for a gubernatorial run in 2024, so focusing on winning reelection to his state-level office might be a better bet for him than running for Senate — for example, while elections for Senate and governor have both become increasingly nationalized, Senate results tend to line up more with presidential results in a state than gubernatorial contests do.

Meanwhile in Iowa, neither first-term U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne nor former Gov. Tom Vilsack wanted to take on Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. Iowa Democrats did make some gains in 2018, picking up two House seats, but they lost the gubernatorial contest. And that came only two years after Trump won the state by 9 points.

One exception to all this is Rep. Ruben Gallego, who decided against a Senate bid in Arizona because he wanted to avoid running in a tough Democratic primary against retired astronaut Mark Kelly, who is considered a top-tier recruit for the Democrats.

Yet in our polarized era, the force that is discouraging the other Senate runs — presidential coattails — could actually boost Democratic candidates, depending on how the presidential race goes. In at least three of these GOP-leaning seats — Arizona, Iowa and North Carolina — Democrats have won major races in recent years. While this trio of states leans Republican, they are not out of reach for a Democratic presidential contender, who could win them and help carry down-ballot Democrats over the finish line. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won Arizona’s high-turnout 2018 Senate race. In Iowa, Democrats took over one statewide office from Republicans in 2018 (and Barack Obama carried it in 2008 and 2012). And North Carolina elected a Democratic governor (and Stein) in 2016 (plus Obama won there in 2008).

The point is that perceived recruitment failures in a handful of states this far from November 2020 do not necessarily sound the death knell for Democrats’ overall chances of taking back the Senate, which the GOP currently controls 53-47. Some big names in those states would have helped, sure, but probably only at the margins considering how influential the race at the top of the ticket will be. Of course, the margins can make all the difference in tight races. Still, some of the Democrats on the list above could change their minds and get into the race after all, or as Abrams and O’Rourke showed in 2018, lesser-known candidates might become stars.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Geoffrey Skelley

0 notes