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#cloud recesses quadruple
mysticstronomy · 2 years
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WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF EARTH WERE IMPACTED BY THE LARGEST COMET IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM??
Blog#227
Wednesday, September 14th, 2022
Welcome back,
Out there, in the far recesses of the Solar System, a great existential threat lies in wait for planet Earth: the Oort cloud. Formed at the outset of the Solar System, it largely consists of the remnants of the primitive material that led to the formation of our Sun and the planets. Whatever wasn’t either boiled off by the Sun or locked up into the planetary, lunar, asteroidal, or Kuiper belt objects we have today remained in a spheroidal cloud, anywhere from a thousand times the Earth-Sun distance to one or two light-years away.
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Today, these bodies, mostly a mix of ice-and-rock, remain in slow, quasi-stable orbits in the deepest recesses of our Solar System. But every once in a while, a chance gravitational encounter will perturb the orbit of a particular object, and send one careening into the inner Solar System. Even though they have periods that can rise into the millions of years, the wrong gravitational “nudge” from another massive body could send any one of these on a collision course for Earth.
While Comet Bernardinelli–Bernstein, the most massive comet ever discovered, isn’t going to hit Earth on this current pass through the Solar System, the far future is anyone’s guess.
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Here’s what would happen if a collision were to occur.
There are three major concerns whenever an object is going to impact the Earth in terms of the damage it will do.
1.   How massive the object is. More mass equals more energy imparted into the Earth, which translates into more destruction. If you were to double the impactor’s mass, the energy imparted into the Earth would also double.
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2.   How fast the object is moving. The faster the object moves, the greater the amount of kinetic energy it brings with it, and that energy gets dissipated into the Earth upon impact, causing the damaging effects we correctly have a healthy fear of. If you double the impactor’s speed, the energy imparted into the Earth quadruples; the energy scales as the square of the impactor’s relative velocity to Earth.
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3.   What the object is made out of. Composition isn’t everything, but an object that’s “more rocky” is generally more dangerous than one that’s “more icy” for a few reasons. Asteroids are more likely to reach the ground and create an impact crater, while comets are more likely to create airbursts. Comets have more volatiles, so they’re more likely to split into smaller fragments, some of which might miss Earth entirely, and the ones that do hit us will certainly dissipate some of their energy in the atmosphere. Finally, asteroids contain a greater fraction of elements that are absolutely toxic to ingest or inhale, so they’re a greater threat to life as well.
Originally published on bigthink.com
COMING UP!!
(Saturday, September 17th, 2022)
“IS LIGHT INFINITE??”
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randomprose · 3 years
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title: the one where jiang cheng is the Mom Friend (and says the L-word) | AO3
summary: jiang cheng absolutely hates it when he is forced to be the Adult to make wei wuxian do Adult Things like do homework or eat or shower or do his fucking laundry that’s been piling up for weeks.
characters/pairings: jiang cheng, nie huaisang, wei wuxian, lan wangji | wangxian (pre-getting together)
more of this series: here
“Wuxian, what are you doing?” Nie Huaisang asks, phone in his ear. He’s talking to Jiang Cheng and asking him to grab some milk and eggs from the store but Jiang Cheng says he’s far off so he tells him to tell Lan Wangji instead. 
Jiang Cheng asks what else do they need. Didn’t Wei Wuxian said he was doing laundry? Do they still have enough detergent after he’s finished? Nie Huaisang adds detergent powder to the list to send Lan Wangji for good measure.
“I’m trying to teach my son how to be a gamer,” Wei Wuxian says from the couch where he’s lying on his stomach and playing AC on his Switch. Said son is Suibian, a black cat he rescued a month ago and took home despite their apartment building’s no pets rule, currently napping in the circle of his arms. Beside him, on the floor, is a huge sack of what looks like probably a month’s worth of dirty clothes. “I’m doing laundry right now I swear.”
[“He’s not doing laundry, is he?”] comes Jiang Cheng’s staticky voice from the phone. 
“How did you know?” Nie Huaisang’s tone is wry.
There is a sigh and Nie Huaisang removes the phone from his ear at the heavy static noise it makes. 
[“I’m on my way home. if I catch him there with his sack of rotting clothes I’m gonna throw his ass out the window.”]
They live in the fourth floor. Jiang Cheng makes the same threat at least five times a week.
Later when he gets back to the apartment, Jiang Cheng tries to haul Wei Wuxian off the couch and out the door along with his sack of laundry.
Suibian has leaped to Nie Huaisang’s lap on the adjacent arm chair. He instinctively pets the cat and turns up the volume of the TV to drown out the racket his roommates are making. Adventure Time is on.
Jiang Cheng truly hates this part of himself and truly hates how Wei Wuxian always brings it out of him. The one where he has to be the Adult because someone has to be in their group and Nie Huaisang is currently not being helpful. Jiang Cheng hates how he’s almost always the one making his brother (his older brother, by just months but still—Wei Wuxian is older, ergo should be more responsible, but chose not to be) do the Adult Things like do homework or eat or shower. Sometimes Lan Wangji helps but more often succumbs to his brother’s will because he’s so fucking whipped.
“Why do you insist on making me suffer?!” Wei Wuxian whines as he clings to the couch. 
“How is making you do your laundry making you suffer?!” Jiang Cheng shouts as he pulls at his brother’s shirt stretching it out. “I’m doing this because I love you and I care about you!” 
Well, it’s a stretch—a long stretch—but it works well on Wei Wuxian. At least it used to. 
“Shut the fuck up! You only say you love me when you actively plan my demise!”
“Demi—what are you talking about?!”
This is the scene Lan Wangji comes home to:
Jiang Cheng and Wei Wuxian caught in a tug-of-war as Wei Wuxian clings to the couch in earnest. They’ve managed to pull the couch halfway out of the living room space and it’s now in an awkward diagonal angle. Wei Wuxian’s sack—a large black garbage bag he snagged from the kitchen to put the clothes normally just scattered around his room—of dirty laundry has come untied and his clothes have spilled halfway out of it. Jiang Cheng is stepping on his boxers. 
Wei Wuxian let’s go of his hold on the couch. Jiang Cheng slips on his boxers and they both fall back. The large garbage bag of clothes cushions Jiang Cheng’s fall while he cushion’s Wei Wuxian’s.
“Hey, Wangji,” Nie Huaisang greets from where he’s seated not bothering to turn away from the TV. Peppermint Butler has just summoned a demon to possess Cinnamon Bun. “Did you get the things I asked?”
“Yes. I also bought bread and coffee. We ran out this morning.”
“Mhmm. Great. Thanks.”
“Lan Zhan!” Wei Wuxian calls leaping off of Jiang Cheng who throws the boxers he slipped on at Wei Wuxian’s back. “Let’s do laundry together.”
“I already did mine two days ago.
“Oh,” Wei Wuxian visibly depletes. “I don’t like doing laundry alone.”
“That’s what you get for always putting it off.”
“I’ve been busy okay! Finals was hell!”
“It’s been two weeks since finals. You aced all your exams.”
“Your point?”
Jiang opens his mouth to argue before closing it and narrowing his eyes upon realizing who he’s talking to and feeling stupid for trying to reason with a sociopath. 
“I will accompany Wei Ying to the laundromat,” Lan Wangji says striding into the living room after putting away the groceries. “If you want?” He asks Wei Wuxian.
“Stop spoiling him Lan Wangji.”
“It is fine. I do not mind.”
“Yes, I want!” Wei Wuxian beams and throws his arms around Lan Wangji. “You’re the best Lan Zhan!”
Wei Wuxian crosses the living to where Jiang Cheng is in two quick strides. He picks up the boxers Jiang Cheng threw at him earlier and gathers the other clothes that spilled out before abruptly snatching his garbage bag of dirty clothes from under Jiang Cheng in one swift tug. 
Jiang Cheng lands on his ass on the floor with a dull thud and a curse kicking Wei Wuxian in the shin as the latter stuffs the clothes back in his garbage bag. Wei Wuxian just pokes his tongue out at him with a ‘bleh’ pulling down the skin below his eye like the five-year-old that he actually is. Jiang Cheng makes a face and pokes his tongue out at him like the other five-year-old he is too. Wei Wuxian just laughs.
Lan Wangji appears from the bathroom holding their container of detergent powder, the bottle of fabric softener, and his own hamper, no doubt for Wei Wuxian to put his clean clothes in afterwards because he’s Lan Wangji and he thinks of these things.
And because he’s Lan Wangji, he offers to help Wei Wuxian with his sack of dirty laundry, too.
Wei Wuxian declines but his smile is wide when he links an arm around Lan Wangji’s—the one that isn’t holding the hamper and the detergent—and drags his sack of laundry with his other hand as he guides them out the door.
The ending theme song of Adventure Time rolls on the TV. There is the sound of shuffling as Nie Huaisang transfers to the couch—which is still in an awkwardly askew position in their living room space.
“Do you think they’ll ever figure it out?” Nie Huaisang asks as soon as the door closed, leaning over the back of the couch and looking down at Jiang Cheng. 
“That’ll be the day,” Jiang Cheng, who is sprawled on the floor behind the couch deciding to lie there for a while, lifts the arm he’s put over his eyes to stare back up at Nie Huaisang. “That’ll be the day for sure.”
“It’s been seven years. I hope they figure it out soon,” Nie Huaisang says with a sigh turning back to face the TV. “In this lifetime preferably.”
“Preferably.” Jiang Cheng continues to lie on the floor. The rug feels soft against his back. “For all our sakes.”
Suibian has come to rest on Jiang Cheng’s torso and his hand comes up on instinct to pet it.
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vvienne · 3 years
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SANGCHENG FIC RECS
flight of a one-winged dove by bloodletter
Talking at someone is only fun for so long. That's all being a sect leader is: talking and talking to people bound by courtesy to listen to you. It's so fucking dull. A relief, then, to face one’s equal, and no less an old friend who is inclined to interrupt you whenever you ramble. He likes it. It’s one of Jiang Cheng’s best qualities.
In the years after Guanyin Temple, Nie Huaisang attends to unfinished business.
whipped by reindeercolin
Jiang Cheng blinks. “Dammit, they do think you’re dating one of us! I hate it when Wei Wuxian is right.” “Excuse me?” Nie Huaisang gives him an incredulous look. “First of all, they think I’m dating you, and if anything, they’re getting more aggressive!”
(or, the one in which Jiang Cheng has too many relatives, not enough patience, goes through a brother-divorce and finds out he has a boyfriend - in that order, more or less.)
Ponder the Manner of Things by Pip (Moirail)
It's not that Jiang Cheng can't do a quadruple flip followed by a triple toeloop. It's that his mother seems to think that's still not good enough.
Jiang Cheng is grateful that Huaisang doesn’t have the same kind of family life that he does, all - messy with expectations and cravings for closeness and nothing but vague filial piety where love is meant to be.
a matter of time and organ donation by nev_longbottom
This is it. The call he’s been waiting for. His brother had ‘an accident’ or ‘died in his sleep’ or some other lie to cover up the murder.
“Please, Mingjue is missing. He got into one of his moods and he was gone when I came back from grocery shopping. He’s not answering his phone. I don’t know if he left or was kidnapped or if something else happened. Huaisang, please, if you’ve heard anything,” Meng Yao begs.
Nie Huaisang hunts his brother's killer.
no tip necessary by tattletold
With all the nervousness of a virgin in a whorehouse, Jiang Cheng closes the door behind himself and enters, sitting on the low seat across from the escort. The pretty young man keeps his face hidden behind the delicate fan, and Jiang Cheng thinks for a moment that he recognizes the design painted onto it now that he’s closer.
It’s only when he lowers the fan and opens his eyes, wide, does Jiang Cheng paralyze with realization.
They speak at the same time in equally horrified tones.
“Jiang Cheng?”
“Nie Huaisang?”
Your Place in the Family of Things by raisedbyhyenas
No matter what happens, no matter the circumstances, Wei Wuxian will always leave and Jiang Cheng will always get stuck trying to rebuild from whatever’s left.
*************
In which Jiang Cheng makes friends; gets a cat; begins to rebuild a relationship; and maybe, possibly, potentially, learns a little bit how to be happy.
sigh yourself to sleep by merthurlin
“Let me take care of you, A-Cheng.”
No one—no one has ever said that, not to Jiang Cheng. He wasn’t a very sickly child, true, but the few times he remembered being sick it was never—he had a-jie, and later on he had Wei Wuxian, for what it was worth, but he never—
halcyon days by serein
They're in a forest, it seems just the two of them.
"You have to be patient," Nie Huaisang says, "I once waited for three days to catch a sparrow."
"Three days?" Jiang Cheng replies, sceptical. He can't imagine Nie Huaisang having the attention span for that.
"It's not that hard," Nie Huaisang says, "if you know what they want, and find a way to get it for them."
[JC stumbles across an array and gets physically de-aged to be 16/17. NHS kindly offers his help to an old friend, but things... escalate.]
To Distraction by isozyme
It’s the third night of Yunmeng’s kite festival celebrations. Nie Huaisang has come visiting, eager to partake in the food, the arts, and Jiang Cheng.
-
Jiang Cheng wants to forget. Nie Huaisang has some new lube and wants to see if he can put his whole fist in somebody’s ass.
Lights, Camera, Kiss by MissMagus
When Nie Huaisang gets paired with straight porn star Jiang Cheng for a five-part series, he’s sure it will be an utter disaster. Until the cameras start rolling and their chemistry alights like wildfire.
(Or, the five times Nie Huaisang and Jiang Cheng have sex for their job, and the first time they have sex outside of it.)
Only the Shallow by hamburglar
When Nie Huaisang gets bored and convinces Jiang Cheng to make out with him, he’s probably not expecting to still be dealing with the guy 16 years later.
OR the story where Jiang Cheng goes into: the Cloud Recesses, denial, some bushes, the private porn library at the Unclean Realm, and subspace.
Blind for Love by manamune
Jiang Cheng is poisoned with an aphrodisiac and needs to orgasm repeatedly in order to flush it from his system.
The first person he thinks of going to for help is Nie Huaisang, who does what any good friend would do: he shoves his three decades worth of feelings for Jiang Cheng deep into the recesses of his mind, locks them up so he can pretend they don’t exist, and then fucks him so hard that he passes out.
Descending by lightningwaltz
“I want to… to not be embarrassed.”
“To not be embarrassed during what?”
“During sex.” There. Jiang Cheng can say it. “In general. Also with you right now.”
“Very good.”
“When did you become so authoritative?” Jiang Cheng wants to sound irked, but can’t quite manage anything beyond nervous curiosity.
dark water by Morgan (duckwhatduck)
There are words, somewhere, for this. Words that would put a shape to the thing that sits between them, would seal their understanding. There are words for sympathy, for friendship, for understanding, for that touch, for this feeling.
Jiang Cheng can feel them, somewhere, fluttering formless at the back of his throat, squirming under his ribcage, but he cannot grasp them. They swim beneath the surface, fish in muddy water - and like fish, they will dart away if he grabs for them incautiously, and leave him nothing but cold splashes and grit.
Or: Why talk about things when you could fuck about it instead?
never knew i was a dancer by isozyme
“What’s a stone butch and why aren’t they real?” Jiang Cheng asks, too buzzed to care too much about not being up on lesbian culture.
Huaisang pats Jiang Cheng on the no-man’s-land between her boobs and her shoulder. “You’re so useless, Jiang Cheng. A stone butch is a fictional hottie who doesn’t make you do any work at all, just wants to give head and fuck you stupid on her strap.”
“Fictional?” Jiang Cheng echoes, having - not a moment, per se, but sort of a problem where her thoughts are going too fast for her poor drunken brain to keep up with.
“Nobody actually wants to fuck a chick who’s too lazy to eat you out after,” Huaisang mumbles.
-
After leaving Wei Ying and Lan Zhan’s bachelorette party, Jiang Cheng and Nie Huaisang decide to experiment with some outdated stereotypical lesbian sex roles.
lights out by rynleaf
“Nie-zongzhu makes the most sense,” Sect Leader Yao nods sagely, to murmurs of assent across the Jin Sect’s gold gilded banquet hall. Jin Ling, clad in opulent robes that look somewhat comical on a boy of sixteen, inclines his head as his scribe makes a notation, and the noise rises as sect leaders pat themselves and each other on the back for a decision well made.
Jiang Cheng groans and downs his cup of wine in one go.
-
In which the Sect Leaders elect a new Chief Cultivator.
shadow eternal by rynleaf
“You want me to distract the Chief Cultivator from the Annual Cultivation Conference, so you and other sect leaders can… what. Sign contracts without adult supervision?”
“If Jiang-zongzhu is amenable,” Sect Leader Ouyang repeats with a nod.
Jiang Cheng pinches the bridge of his nose. The pressure he felt building behind his eyes all morning is swiftly coalescing into a bitch of a headache. “Just what do you all think I’m capable of?”
Sect Leader Ouyang bows with a cheerful smile. “We have utmost faith in Sandu Shengshou’s abilities.”
-
In which a night hunt ends in disaster, Jiang Cheng catches a glimpse of Nie Huaisang's heart, and feelings are discussed after a certain fashion.
Four Days in Lanling by halotolerant
Nie Huaisang looks at him. ‘You are confusing me, Clan Leader Jiang, perhaps I misunderstand, but…’
‘You didn’t misunderstand. You don’t misunderstand. You understand all of it.’ For six months Jiang Cheng has been mulling this over, and now with Nie Huaisang in front of him he can’t figure out if he most wants to knock him down or kneel at his feet. What he does is try and breathe. Clench his hands at his sides. ‘And now I am going to ask you to do something for me. You have to do something for me. You have to help Jin Ling.’
Lean for Love Forever by Pip (Moirail)
Having a crush on your roommate is really embarrassing, except that's apparently the opposite of a problem. Jiang Cheng can't deny that's pretty convenient.
Wei Ying holds it up, a series of straps and buckles and velcro and wow, really a lot of leather. It has absolutely no conceivable form beyond tangled.
Nie Huaisang opens the door at exactly the moment that Wei Ying holds the thing up to Jiang Cheng’s chest, as if he’s trying to imagine how exactly it would fit onto a person, and it falls into a tangled pile between them while they stare at Huaisang in mild mortification.
acquired momentum by mongrelmind
Had Madam Yu known that this is where her son would end up, she would have gouged his eyes out with her bracelet before he made the grave mistake of looking in the direction of Nie Huaisang.
-
in which Nie Huaisang has an art show, Jiang Cheng is begrudgingly topless*, and there are. Shenanigans.
*Nie Huaisang excluded.
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moonwaif · 4 years
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Florist!Lan Wangji whose family runs the flower shop named the Cloud Recesses. Lan Wangji keeps gifting Wei Wuxian bouquets with really obscure, romantic meanings in an attempt to confess his feelings, and Wei Wuxian can’t figure out what’s going on for the life of him.
BONUS: Oblivious Wei Wuxian sharing some of the flowers with Mianmian. Lan Wangji looking on like “omfg wei ying”
DOUBLE BONUS: Artsy boy Nie Huaisang knows the meaning of flowers. He knows.
TRIPLE BONUS: Wei Wuxian with an inverse green thumb determined to finally learn how to keep a plant alive so he can impress Lan Wangji.
QUADRUPLE BONUS: Wei Wuxian only figures out what’s happening when he goes with Jin Zixuan to the flower shop so that they can pick out flowers for Jin Zixuan and Jiang Yanli’s wedding. Lan Xichen assists them and explains the meaning of the different flower arrangements. Wei Wuxian may or may not hyperventilate a little bit.
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gusu-emilu · 3 years
Text
Cantatio: Chapter Ten
Ship: Lan Zhan / Wei Ying
Summary: Lan Wangji learns what really happened last night—regarding more people than he expected.
Cloud Recesses AU, Rated T - read on AO3
“But you, Lan Zhan? Letting a girl from the Wen Clan sneak in through your window, then tiptoeing around the Cloud Recesses after curfew with her, and then sword fighting without permission?
All of that is much, much more deplorable, Lan Zhan.”
< Ch. 9 | Ch. 11 > | chapter list
It was as if Lan Wangji had swallowed an entire bottle of vinegar.
His stomach lurched. His face burned. His throat blazed with the acrid taste, itching to cough up the single question that singed the fabric of his thoughts.
Wei Ying, who is in your bed?!
But Lan Wangji had well earned the title of Twin Jade. Like his brother, he was serene. Cool. Composed. Nothing could penetrate the fortress of his mind. Nothing could get under his skin.
Do not act impulsively. Harmony is the value. Speak meagerly, for too many words only bring harm. Train your body and your mind.
Coming back to center with the Gusu Lan Clan rules—which he had been ignoring too much lately—was his priority. Not whatever frivolous things his roommate did.
And yet.
A man was in Wei Ying’s bed.
A man who did not belong in their room.
But these emotions were irrational. Why should Lan Wangji care? The biggest problem here was that sleeping in another disciple’s dormitory was prohibited. That was why he cared..
“I hope you don’t mind, Lan Zhan,” Wei Wuxian looked over at Lan Wangji as they stood in the doorway. “I had a guest over. But, well, you had a guest in your bed too, so it shouldn’t be that big of a problem.”
A lump formed in Lan Wangji’s throat.
He knew. He knew that Wen Qing had snuck into their room. Had he been awake the entire time, watching them and smirking from beneath his blankets, while a handsome man slept beside him?
“I did not. Invite her.”
“Okay, Lan Zhan. Whatever you say. You’ll be glad to know that I, at least, am maintaining our duplex as a place of hospitality. I did invite my guest in. Very willingly.”
Lan Wangji’s fists trembled.
Was Wei Ying purposely trying to aggravate him? Purposely trying to rouse a reaction from him? Purposely trying to make him feel jeal—
No. If this was his intention, the attempt had failed. He didn’t feel that unspeakable emotion at all. There was no reason to.
Wei Wuxian pranced into the room. The unknown man still slumbered in bed, snoring lightly. Lan Wangji remained fixed in the doorway, trapped in place as if the moonlight tied around him like a rope, pulling him away from this disturbing sight.
How had he not seen two people in the bed? How had Wei Ying snuck outside to buy wine in Caiyi Town without alerting him or Wen Qing?
Earlier, Lan Wangji had felt the slightest bit amused—horrified, yes, but still a touch humored—that he was blatantly violating Gusu Lan Clan rules on his side of the room while Wei Wuxian, the biggest troublemaker in the Cloud Recesses, was fast asleep, completely oblivious.
Well, maybe not that amused. It was shameful behavior.
But had the situation actually been the reverse? Had Lan Wangji been so absorbed in his stubborn guest that he hadn’t even noticed what was occurring across from him?
Finally, he croaked out the question.
“Who. Is that.”
Wei Wuxian rubbed the back of his neck and flashed a sheepish grin. “Haha. About that. There’s something else I need to tell you, Lan Zhan. Please don’t be mad at me.”
Lan Wangji’s only answer was to twitch his lower lip.
“He’s…uh…under a sleeping potion.”
“What?”
“It’s not anything weird, I swear! He did it to himself! Well, at least, sort of. It was a dare. He lost a bet to Huaisang. I think it cost him a little too much, though. I, uh…I might’ve used the opportunity to slip two or three of his coins from his pockets to buy some stuff.”
What kind of wicked games had Wei Ying been playing with this man? And Nie Huaisang had been involved too?
Wei Wuxian waved his hands in front of himself. “He’s fine! Really! He just went sleep. Really soundly.”
Despite their raucous voices, the man had not stirred from the bed. His leg still hung off its edge.
“What was. It.”
“Remember in Madam Yu’s class when some of my ingredients went missing? I mean, I know you were ignoring me, but we were sitting at the same table, and she, like, slapped me. You must’ve noticed.
“Anyway, turns out that when you make an insomnia remedy without jujube seeds, it gets way stronger. Makes you pass out within a minute. Wen Qing told me that after class. She said she would pour it down my throat if I didn’t stop trying to talk to her. I’m best buddies with her little brother though, how could she say something so rude to me? She’s really quite terrifying. And that needle she stuck in me? Such a scary woman. I can’t believe you let her in our dorm.”
Lan Wangji’s jaw tightened.
“But I’m getting off track. Since it was his”—he pointed at the sleeping man—“fault for getting my grade lowered, Huaisang and I decided that it was only fair he drank the mess that his selfishness had created. We bet him that if he couldn’t do a quadruple backflip after spinning in a circle for five minutes, he’d have to drink it. We didn’t think he’d actually agree to it.”
He paced the room as he continued the story, his hand gestures becoming more and more exaggerated. “And well, after he lost, Huaisang started teasing him. You know how Huaisang is, fan over his face, voice all singsong and provocative. But then Huaisang had to run away, because he got so mad, he was about to punch Huaisang! Still, he kept his word and drank the whole vial. Then he passed out. I didn’t want to carry him back to the dorm courtyard, because what if Nie Mingjue or Lan Xichen saw us? It was way past curfew, and it’s not exactly easy to hide when there’s a person draped over your shoulder. So I dragged him to our cozy little home and plopped him on my bed. You had been sound asleep. Didn’t even notice.”
As Lan Wangji listened, realization dawned on him. In Alchemy & Medicine class, a certain grumpy disciple had refused to give his jujube seeds to Wei Wuxian.
The man in the bed was Jiang Cheng.
Wei Ying’s brother.
Then he remembered another detail—Wei Wuxian had left an hour before curfew to play outside with Jiang Cheng and Nie Huaisang. Lan Wangji noted bitterly that he hadn’t been invited.
As if Lan Wangji cared about any of this in the first place. He stomped over to his own bed and slid inside, shutting the blankets over himself with a violent sweep.
“Hahahaha, what kind of person do you think I am, Lan Zhan? Did I worry you? I was only doing a kind deed by letting my shidi rest in my bed until the potion’s effects wore off. And the Emperor’s Smile I bought was an apology gift for him when he woke up! At least, one jar of it was. It was his money, so it was only fair I let him have some.”
Wei Wuxian rubbed his hands together, like he was kneading dough he was about to roast in the oven. “But you, Lan Zhan? Letting a girl from the Wen Clan sneak in through your window, then tiptoeing around the Cloud Recesses after curfew with her, and then sword fighting without permission? And you destroyed my apology gift for Jiang Cheng! All of that is much, much, much more deplorable, Lan Zhan. I should take lessons from you. And you know, you really have to fill me in on this closet of yours. Maybe then, I’ll finally tell you how I animated the pixiu.”
Lan Wangji clenched his eyes shut and clamped the blankets over his ears, his face burning redder by the minute, a headache clawing at his temples, his mind trudging through a recitation of the Gusu Lan Clan’s core philosophies and not thoughts of his roommate.
They went to sleep without exchanging another word.
* * *
The next morning, Lan Wangji’s face was sticky with sweat. He dabbed it off with a warm washcloth, hoping to also wipe away the events of last night. But when he looked down, the coarse fabric only contained his salty perspiration. Not the fourteen rules he broke, not the frenzied twang of the guqin, not the sunken cadaver eyes he saw in the mingshi, not the buzz he felt while sparring with Wei Wuxian, not the inexplicable spite that gripped him at the thought of his roommate sharing a bed with a strange man, not the embarrassment that buried him afterward.
He felt…
Felt…
Haunted.
Who was the girl whose corpse hung in the mingshi? How did the guqin play itself? Why did Lan Wangji’s closet lead him to the tower that held them both?
How did Wei Ying affect him so much?
And why did he feel like with every step he took, he lost more and more of his dignity?
He sighed into the towel.
He needed time to process. Even the Second Young Master of the Lan Clan had a limit to the mayhem he could endure before longing to retreat into his shell. He still needed to discipline himself for his misconduct. No, he needed to report himself to his uncle. It was time. He had broken enough Lan Clan rules to last a year.
And now there were two mysteries to solve—the closet, and the mingshi.
Yet this morning, there was nothing left to do but meditate, meditate, and then meditate a little harder. He stood in the grass outside his dorm in the most challenging meditation posture. He deserved the pain, after all. It was nothing compared to what he’d receive after reporting his infractions to his uncle.
It was not a fruitful meditation session.
Once Jiang Cheng woke up in the dormitory, he wobbled around and sputtered incoherent nonsense for several minutes. Then he regained his senses and began hollering at Wei Wuxian, slugging punches at him, throwing hard objects at him. Lan Wangji was grateful for the silence after his roommate fled out of the duplex with the attacker at his heels and did not return.
At least there were classes to look forward to.
But apparently, even the pleasure of academics was to be robbed of him today.
When Lan Wangji arrived in the central courtyard of the Cloud Recesses, ready to enter his uncle’s classroom and nourish himself with more knowledge of Trans-Himalayan poetry, he was blocked by a clamoring crowd of disciples. The clan leaders stood gravely outside the Main Hall, murmuring to each other with obvious distress. Jin Guangshan looked the most outraged of all, floating from leader to leader with shaking fists and a running mouth like a hot air balloon that kept getting blown around.
Morning classes were cancelled.
A guardian lion statue outside the mingshi had come to life and escaped.
A guardian lion.
Would the chaos never end? This was not the peaceful Cloud Recesses Academy that he had heard about from Lan Xichen.
At that thought, he decided to search for his brother.. He slinked between chattering disciples until he spotted the sapphire robes, silken black hair, and white cloud-patterned headband that only looked that way on the elder Twin Jade.
“Brother.”
“Good morning, Wangji,” Lan Xichen said. He had been speaking to Jiang Yanli, whose eyes were puffy and red.
Lan Wangji glanced with concern at Jiang Yanli, scanned the commotion surrounding them, then stared at his brother with an expression that asked, What is going on?
“Have you heard? Last night the guardian lion from the mingshi captured a disciple and dragged him into the forest. A search team is hunting for them as we speak.”
"Whom?”
Lan Xichen’s eyes wandered to Jiang Yanli.
“…Jin Zixuan,” she said.
Jin Zixuan had been out at around the same time last night as Lan Wangji to scold the Lan Clan servant. At least, that was what the conversation of Lan Xichen, Nie Mingjue, and Jin Guangyao had seemed to indicate.
When Lan Wangji and Wen Qing had exited the mingshi, both of its guardian lion statues were intact and in place. Did the lion come to life and attack Jin Zixuan shortly after they had left? By how many minutes had they missed it? Who even had enough spiritual energy to animate it?
“Serves him right, too,” said Nie Mingjue, who had just marched over from the group of clan leaders. “Little snot-robed bastard had it coming, spitting backwash on his honor like that.”
Lan Xichen braced at the word ‘honor’ and gave a cautious glance at Jiang Yanli, as if afraid his friend’s words would draw fresh tears from her eyes. “Mingjue, no disciple deserves such a fate. And Young Master Jin is quite proficient. He will easily be able to keep himself safe and will return shortly.”
“Pah. I have no sympathy for a coward who would disrespect a lady like that. The lion can have him.”
This time it was Jiang Yanli who flinched at his words. Her lips paled, but she pinched them together and stood a bit taller.
Nie Mingjue did not realize that the woman Jin Zixuan had slighted was actually standing before him. His careless words only drove the nuptial dagger deeper into her wound.
Having never been in love himself—and not supposing he would be anytime soon—Lan Wangji did not know what it felt like to harbor unrequited affections for someone. But somehow, this day, he was able to imagine it more clearly than ever.
It was almost...real.
“Clan Leader Nie should not speak such words given his current company,” Lan Wangji said with a respectful bow of his head.
Nie Mingjue raised his eyebrows, but he did not seem offended. “As you deem fit, Second Young Master Lan. Anyway, where’s Huaisang?” he said with a bite in his tone.
“Just listen for my didi or A-Xian. You will find him nearby,” Jiang Yanli said.
“Hmph. Those two would be wise to find a more useful friend. He still hasn’t picked up a saber since he got here,” Nie Mingjue grumbled before stomping away. Baxia shivered atop the rippling muscles of his back, as if it, too, thought that Nie Huaisang’s lack of saber practice was the disgrace of the century.
Lan Xichen’s eyes twinkled. “Wangji, I did not know you were aware of the true nature of the…gift incident that occurred yesterday evening.”
Lan Wangji blinked. “Nor was I aware you knew.”
“Young Master Wei informed me just minutes ago. I immediately came to speak to Lady Jiang.”
Jiang Yanli smiled at them. “Thank you, both of you. But Young Master Jin is the one who needs our prayers. Don’t worry yourselves over me. It had been my choice. Young Master Jin’s reception of the gesture was not mine to control. I only wish he had known it was me. Not because I long for the credit, but because then he would not have sought out the Lan Clan servant and been seized by the guardian lion.” She sighed. “I truly hope he is safe.”
Lan Wangji’s chest tightened at these words. Jiang Yanli’s selflessness reminded him of the care his own brother bestowed upon him, and everyone else they met.
He decided that he needed to divulge last night’s events. For Jin Zixuan’s sake, which by extension, meant Jiang Yanli’s sake.
“Is it known at what time Young Master Jin was captured?”
“Only an estimate,” Lan Xichen said.
“I had been outside the mingshi minutes before you left the dormitory path with Clan Leader Nie and Young Master Jin Guangyao. At the time, both guardian lions were stationary. This information may help locate them faster.”
“Thank you, Wangji. This is very helpful. I’ll inform the clan leaders.” He paused, then tilted his head and said, “What were you doing outside last night?”
Lan Wangji looked to the side. “With company,” he said, intentionally vague.
“Young Master Wei?”
Of course his brother saw right through him.
He nodded.
“Young Master Wei has had quite an influence on you recently.”
Lan Wangji bit the inside of his mouth, hoping the pinch would fight back the rosy blush blanketing his cheeks. At least Lan Xichen would never guess that Wen Qing had been there too.
“He carried liquor. I apprehended him,” Lan Wangji said. “I accept punishment for my transgressions. I will report myself to Uncle.”
Lan Xichen’s eyes sparkled like the wine Wei Wuxian had carried. “Why not have a drink with Young Master Wei instead?”
Lan Wangji gaped at his brother in horror.
These were the same words Wei Wuxian had spoken to him so shamelessly while flaunting the jars of Emperor’s Smile. Lan Wangji had never tasted alcohol, but he imagined that the tingle he felt at this thought couldn’t be that different from drunkenness.
Lan Xichen only met Lan Wangji’s offended gaze and laughed.
At least this conversation seemed to brighten Jiang Yanli. “A-Xian can come on strong, but he has a good heart. I’m glad you two are roommates. He’ll be a good friend.”
Lan Wangji nodded.
“Try to keep him from self-sabotaging too much.”
“I shall.”
Lan Wangji had said it. So he would do it. Somehow, a part of him desperately wanted to.
As the events of the day unfolded, it turned out that Wei Wuxian would need his help much sooner than he expected.
* * *
Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this chapter, you can be a supportive sibling like Jiang Yanli by liking, reblogging, and visiting me on AO3! New chapters posted every Monday on AO3 and Tuesday on Tumblr.
Ch. 11 > | chapter list
6 notes · View notes
wineanddinosaur · 4 years
Text
Will the Low- and No-ABV Movements Survive Covid-19?
Tumblr media
If it seems like everyone in your social media feed is drinking more right now, they probably are. According to IWSR data shared with VinePair, retail alcohol sales during Covid-19 have hit double-digit growth, mirroring “holiday-type” volume and value spending.
Of course, any current data should be examined with the caveat that on-premise sales have plummeted, and many are replacing those purchases with stay-at-home Quarantinis. There’s also stockpiling to consider, though IWSR figures signal that the bulk of this took place during a two-week period in March, and sales since then have remained strong.
But just as our interactions with the physical world are largely confined to the views from our windows, we should not overlook the subjectivity of social media feeds. Put simply: Not everyone is drinking more right now.
“If anything, I’ve seen this kind of outpouring of, ‘Here are all the ways that I’m taking care of myself,’ and lots of people doing yoga and meditation,” says Sam Thonis, co-owner of Getaway, an alcohol-free bar in Brooklyn. Opened in April 2019, the bar has become a brick-and-mortar signifier of the growing low- and no-alcohol movements.
Prior to Covid-19, these movements had started gaining significant traction, with coverage reaching national media. By the end of last year, publications such as The Washington Post and The New York Times had devoted significant column inches to the popularity of lower-ABV spritz cocktails and hard seltzers, and the growing interest in the “sober-curious” lifestyle. While it was harder to back the “trend” with sales data, low- and no-ABV drinks had by then entered the cultural lexicon.
But like everything else right now, the future of the low and no movements feels delicately poised. Convincing drinkers that it might be a good idea to lower their alcohol consumption is difficult enough at the best of times, let alone in the midst of a global pandemic. And looking forward, there’s the dark cloud of recession looming on the horizon, which is likely to impact consumer spending. That could be a particular challenge for the zero-proof category, whose products have been priced at retail similarly to the boozy libations they were designed to replace. To boot: The non-alcoholic botanical “spirit” Seedlip sells for around $30 for 700 milliliters, while a slightly larger bottle of Bombay Sapphire gin sells for $25. These issues raise the question: What does Covid-19 mean for the future of the nascent low- and no-ABV movements?
Drinking Habits In a Global Pandemic
For Thonis, there’s no question that the zero-proof scene was gaining traction prior to Covid-19. After Getaway opened, it received significant press. While skeptics could argue it seemed like a niche “New York” concept, multiple operators around the country reached out to Thonis and told him they wanted to emulate his model.
Sales, too, seemed to indicate that the city that never sleeps was willing to take the occasional night off from booze. “Before March, when everything changed, the two normal months of 2020 were our best months yet,” he says. “We were on a serious upswing.”
Sadly, those sales have now crashed to nothing. Unlike some New York cocktail bars, Getaway hasn’t pivoted to takeaway or to-go options. And when stay-at-home orders are finally relaxed, Thonis realizes his bar’s offerings might be deemed as a luxury by some. “[Non-alcoholic cocktails] are not human necessities, unlike food and arguably alcohol,” he says.
Lifestyle writer Ruby Warrington has noticed contrasting attitudes on her social media feeds. In 2018, the New-York-based British author wrote a book on alcohol abstinence titled “Sober Curious.” Some have even credited the work with popularizing the no-ABV movement. Warrington also hosts a podcast of the same name and interacts via social media with a community of people who choose not to drink.
Many of those interactions have included people speaking about how glad they are that they don’t drink right now and don’t need to navigate hangovers in the midst of a pandemic. But when she opens her Facebook feed, which has a lot of people from her “pre-sober-curious life” in the U.K., she notices some friends repeating the kind of statements that could double as a quarantine meme, such as “How early is too early to start drinking?” and “Drinking alone doesn’t count in a crisis.”
“It almost feels like there’s a lot of bravado, a ‘let’s drink our way through it’ sort of attitude,” she says. “With my sober-curious goggles on, it does seem like underneath there’s a lot of fear.”
Her evaluation is backed by psychological science. “It makes a lot of sense that people are drinking more during this time: They want instant relief from anxiety, boredom, depression, and just not wanting to feel their feelings — alcohol offers a solution to that,” says Lindsay Hayden, a New York-based licensed mental health counselor who specializes in addiction.
Hayden warns that without the structure and routine of normal life, those who are using only alcohol as a coping mechanism could soon be facing more serious issues. “Not everyone who is relying on alcohol will come out of the pandemic with an alcohol addiction, but it is definitely something people should be watching out for,” she says.
Drinking Habits During a Recession
While the “new normal” of quarantine life is unprecedented to all experiencing it, at least some of what comes after Covid-19 is not without parallel. By many accounts, the world economy is headed into a long and potentially deep recession. The IMF predicts the coronavirus crisis could knock as much as $9 trillion off global GDP over the next two years. If previous recessions are benchmarks, that doesn’t spell good news for the low- and no-ABV movements.
During the eight-month 2001 recession, whose economic impact lasted for several years, alcohol volume sales grew year-over-year, totaling a 4 percent increase between 2001 and 2004, according to IWSR’s chief operating officer, Brandy Rand.
While alcohol sales growth was somewhat flat during the Great Recession of December 2007 to June 2009, that was only because of declining beer sales. “[U]nemployment rate at the end of 2009 was 10 percent, yet there was still an upward consumption trend outside of beer,” Rand explains.
The purchasing habits from both of the most recent recessions indicate that when economic times are tough, consumers turn to the bottle. Amid the uncertainty, and with less cash in their pockets, they also favor higher-ABV beverages to leverage more bang for buck.
Lisa Laird Dunn, executive vice president of Laird & Company, predicts a similar trend this time around. Founded in 1780, her family runs the oldest licensed distillery in America. In its 200-plus-year history, Laird & Co. has survived more than 30 recessions, two world wars, and even Prohibition.
While known for its Applejack, the distillery’s portfolio contains a broad range of products, priced from high- end to value brands. Laird Dunn confirms that the company’s lower-priced value brands typically sell best during a recession and expects to see a repeat of this trend following Covid-19. “I think you’ll find that there will be more price shopping versus just brand shopping,” she says.
But national sales statistics and the experience of recession-defying distilleries paint just part of the picture.
In January 2013, the University of Buffalo published a study on alcohol use during the Great Recession. Polling more than 2 million Americans between 2006 and 2010, the study uncovered notable increases in heavy drinking (3.9 percent) and frequent binge drinking (7.1 percent), but also found a slight increase in abstention from alcohol (0.8 percent). Put more simply: Not everyone decided to drink more. And there’s more than just anecdotal references to prove the same thing is happening right now.
On Thursday, global research firm Wine Intelligence published its first Covid-19-related consumer analysis report. Based on data collected at the end of March and beginning of April, the report found that, on average, wine consumption has remained stable during lockdown. But once again, this trend only tells part of the story.
“We’re seeing an increase in frequency of wine consumption amongst more engaged wine drinkers,” says CEO Lulie Halstead. “So those who were already drinking wine at higher frequencies are increasing that frequency.”
On the flip side, younger drinkers who were just discovering wine are now drinking it much less frequently than before, she adds. While this finding is based on data collected in Australia, Halstead says early examinations of international data appear to show a similar trend in other markets.
Hope For the Low- and No-ABV Movements
During previous recessions, those who opted not to drink were limited to sodas, seltzers, and water. But this time around, the market is already awash with interesting alcohol alternatives. From no-ABV beers to zero-proof spirits, there are a number of non-alcoholic options that taste just like the real thing (or pretty darn close) without the alcohol and with fewer calories. If consumers can get past price concerns, the compelling flavors and low-calorie appeal of these products could help keep the low and no movements humming along.
As one notable example, Scottish brewery BrewDog has reported strong demand for its range of alcohol-free beers this year. Compared to the last four months of 2019, volume sales on its e-commerce platform have surged more than 350 percent between January and April of this year.
“Just last week, we had our strongest day of online sales ever with the launch of our newest NA beer: Ghost Walker,” says CEO Jason Block. Demand from wholesalers has been stronger still, with volume growth reaching quadruple digits during the first four months of 2020.
The thirst for no-ABV spirits appears to be similarly strong. Ritual Zero Proof, a non-alcoholic beverage brand that offers gin, tequila, and whiskey alternatives, sold its entire six-month inventory in just five weeks when it launched in September last year. Despite the current global pandemic, March 2020 sales were up 16 percent over February, and April sales are on track to double that.
“Spirit alternatives like Ritual are today what veggie burgers and almond milk were a few years back: New, easy to knock, and so broadly desired there are now sections in the grocery store dedicated to them,” says founding partner Marcus Sakey. “Almond milk did $5.3 billion in 2018.”
Support from internationally acclaimed bartenders has given these alternatives further credentials. At Bar Kumiko in Chicago, partner and director Julia Momose curated an extensive “Spiritfrees” cocktail menu. The bar is currently offering five of these drinks as part of a temporary to-go menu.
One of the most vocal supporters of low- and no-ABV cocktails has been Derek Brown, owner of Washington D.C.’s Columbia Room. In February, Brown authored a high-profile article on embracing “mindful drinking” and detailing his own complicated relationship with alcohol.
Brown believes zero-proof cocktails can be just as delicious, interesting, and thought-provoking as those with booze. While he’s also noticed an anecdotal increase in alcohol consumption, he doesn’t think that will harm the low and no movements. In fact, Brown believes our current situation might serve as a wake-up call for many. “A lot of people who went into this wondering whether they had a drinking problem will come out of it knowing the answer to that,” he says.
For those who do, there’s never been a broader range of alternatives and support to help change those habits.
The article Will the Low- and No-ABV Movements Survive Covid-19? appeared first on VinePair.
source https://vinepair.com/articles/coronavirus-impact-low-no-alcohol-movements/
0 notes
johnboothus · 4 years
Text
Will the Low- and No-ABV Movements Survive Covid-19?
Tumblr media
If it seems like everyone in your social media feed is drinking more right now, they probably are. According to IWSR data shared with VinePair, retail alcohol sales during Covid-19 have hit double-digit growth, mirroring “holiday-type” volume and value spending.
Of course, any current data should be examined with the caveat that on-premise sales have plummeted, and many are replacing those purchases with stay-at-home Quarantinis. There’s also stockpiling to consider, though IWSR figures signal that the bulk of this took place during a two-week period in March, and sales since then have remained strong.
But just as our interactions with the physical world are largely confined to the views from our windows, we should not overlook the subjectivity of social media feeds. Put simply: Not everyone is drinking more right now.
“If anything, I’ve seen this kind of outpouring of, ‘Here are all the ways that I’m taking care of myself,’ and lots of people doing yoga and meditation,” says Sam Thonis, co-owner of Getaway, an alcohol-free bar in Brooklyn. Opened in April 2019, the bar has become a brick-and-mortar signifier of the growing low- and no-alcohol movements.
Prior to Covid-19, these movements had started gaining significant traction, with coverage reaching national media. By the end of last year, publications such as The Washington Post and The New York Times had devoted significant column inches to the popularity of lower-ABV spritz cocktails and hard seltzers, and the growing interest in the “sober-curious” lifestyle. While it was harder to back the “trend” with sales data, low- and no-ABV drinks had by then entered the cultural lexicon.
But like everything else right now, the future of the low and no movements feels delicately poised. Convincing drinkers that it might be a good idea to lower their alcohol consumption is difficult enough at the best of times, let alone in the midst of a global pandemic. And looking forward, there’s the dark cloud of recession looming on the horizon, which is likely to impact consumer spending. That could be a particular challenge for the zero-proof category, whose products have been priced at retail similarly to the boozy libations they were designed to replace. To boot: The non-alcoholic botanical “spirit” Seedlip sells for around $30 for 700 milliliters, while a slightly larger bottle of Bombay Sapphire gin sells for $25. These issues raise the question: What does Covid-19 mean for the future of the nascent low- and no-ABV movements?
Drinking Habits In a Global Pandemic
For Thonis, there’s no question that the zero-proof scene was gaining traction prior to Covid-19. After Getaway opened, it received significant press. While skeptics could argue it seemed like a niche “New York” concept, multiple operators around the country reached out to Thonis and told him they wanted to emulate his model.
Sales, too, seemed to indicate that the city that never sleeps was willing to take the occasional night off from booze. “Before March, when everything changed, the two normal months of 2020 were our best months yet,” he says. “We were on a serious upswing.”
Sadly, those sales have now crashed to nothing. Unlike some New York cocktail bars, Getaway hasn’t pivoted to takeaway or to-go options. And when stay-at-home orders are finally relaxed, Thonis realizes his bar’s offerings might be deemed as a luxury by some. “[Non-alcoholic cocktails] are not human necessities, unlike food and arguably alcohol,” he says.
Lifestyle writer Ruby Warrington has noticed contrasting attitudes on her social media feeds. In 2018, the New-York-based British author wrote a book on alcohol abstinence titled “Sober Curious.” Some have even credited the work with popularizing the no-ABV movement. Warrington also hosts a podcast of the same name and interacts via social media with a community of people who choose not to drink.
Many of those interactions have included people speaking about how glad they are that they don’t drink right now and don’t need to navigate hangovers in the midst of a pandemic. But when she opens her Facebook feed, which has a lot of people from her “pre-sober-curious life” in the U.K., she notices some friends repeating the kind of statements that could double as a quarantine meme, such as “How early is too early to start drinking?” and “Drinking alone doesn’t count in a crisis.”
“It almost feels like there’s a lot of bravado, a ‘let’s drink our way through it’ sort of attitude,” she says. “With my sober-curious goggles on, it does seem like underneath there’s a lot of fear.”
Her evaluation is backed by psychological science. “It makes a lot of sense that people are drinking more during this time: They want instant relief from anxiety, boredom, depression, and just not wanting to feel their feelings — alcohol offers a solution to that,” says Lindsay Hayden, a New York-based licensed mental health counselor who specializes in addiction.
Hayden warns that without the structure and routine of normal life, those who are using only alcohol as a coping mechanism could soon be facing more serious issues. “Not everyone who is relying on alcohol will come out of the pandemic with an alcohol addiction, but it is definitely something people should be watching out for,” she says.
Drinking Habits During a Recession
While the “new normal” of quarantine life is unprecedented to all experiencing it, at least some of what comes after Covid-19 is not without parallel. By many accounts, the world economy is headed into a long and potentially deep recession. The IMF predicts the coronavirus crisis could knock as much as $9 trillion off global GDP over the next two years. If previous recessions are benchmarks, that doesn’t spell good news for the low- and no-ABV movements.
During the eight-month 2001 recession, whose economic impact lasted for several years, alcohol volume sales grew year-over-year, totaling a 4 percent increase between 2001 and 2004, according to IWSR’s chief operating officer, Brandy Rand.
While alcohol sales growth was somewhat flat during the Great Recession of December 2007 to June 2009, that was only because of declining beer sales. “[U]nemployment rate at the end of 2009 was 10 percent, yet there was still an upward consumption trend outside of beer,” Rand explains.
The purchasing habits from both of the most recent recessions indicate that when economic times are tough, consumers turn to the bottle. Amid the uncertainty, and with less cash in their pockets, they also favor higher-ABV beverages to leverage more bang for buck.
Lisa Laird Dunn, executive vice president of Laird & Company, predicts a similar trend this time around. Founded in 1780, her family runs the oldest licensed distillery in America. In its 200-plus-year history, Laird & Co. has survived more than 30 recessions, two world wars, and even Prohibition.
While known for its Applejack, the distillery’s portfolio contains a broad range of products, priced from high- end to value brands. Laird Dunn confirms that the company’s lower-priced value brands typically sell best during a recession and expects to see a repeat of this trend following Covid-19. “I think you’ll find that there will be more price shopping versus just brand shopping,” she says.
But national sales statistics and the experience of recession-defying distilleries paint just part of the picture.
In January 2013, the University of Buffalo published a study on alcohol use during the Great Recession. Polling more than 2 million Americans between 2006 and 2010, the study uncovered notable increases in heavy drinking (3.9 percent) and frequent binge drinking (7.1 percent), but also found a slight increase in abstention from alcohol (0.8 percent). Put more simply: Not everyone decided to drink more. And there’s more than just anecdotal references to prove the same thing is happening right now.
On Thursday, global research firm Wine Intelligence published its first Covid-19-related consumer analysis report. Based on data collected at the end of March and beginning of April, the report found that, on average, wine consumption has remained stable during lockdown. But once again, this trend only tells part of the story.
“We’re seeing an increase in frequency of wine consumption amongst more engaged wine drinkers,” says CEO Lulie Halstead. “So those who were already drinking wine at higher frequencies are increasing that frequency.”
On the flip side, younger drinkers who were just discovering wine are now drinking it much less frequently than before, she adds. While this finding is based on data collected in Australia, Halstead says early examinations of international data appear to show a similar trend in other markets.
Hope For the Low- and No-ABV Movements
During previous recessions, those who opted not to drink were limited to sodas, seltzers, and water. But this time around, the market is already awash with interesting alcohol alternatives. From no-ABV beers to zero-proof spirits, there are a number of non-alcoholic options that taste just like the real thing (or pretty darn close) without the alcohol and with fewer calories. If consumers can get past price concerns, the compelling flavors and low-calorie appeal of these products could help keep the low and no movements humming along.
As one notable example, Scottish brewery BrewDog has reported strong demand for its range of alcohol-free beers this year. Compared to the last four months of 2019, volume sales on its e-commerce platform have surged more than 350 percent between January and April of this year.
“Just last week, we had our strongest day of online sales ever with the launch of our newest NA beer: Ghost Walker,” says CEO Jason Block. Demand from wholesalers has been stronger still, with volume growth reaching quadruple digits during the first four months of 2020.
The thirst for no-ABV spirits appears to be similarly strong. Ritual Zero Proof, a non-alcoholic beverage brand that offers gin, tequila, and whiskey alternatives, sold its entire six-month inventory in just five weeks when it launched in September last year. Despite the current global pandemic, March 2020 sales were up 16 percent over February, and April sales are on track to double that.
“Spirit alternatives like Ritual are today what veggie burgers and almond milk were a few years back: New, easy to knock, and so broadly desired there are now sections in the grocery store dedicated to them,” says founding partner Marcus Sakey. “Almond milk did $5.3 billion in 2018.”
Support from internationally acclaimed bartenders has given these alternatives further credentials. At Bar Kumiko in Chicago, partner and director Julia Momose curated an extensive “Spiritfrees” cocktail menu. The bar is currently offering five of these drinks as part of a temporary to-go menu.
One of the most vocal supporters of the low- and no-ABV drinks has been Derek Brown, owner of Washington D.C.’s Columbia Room. In February, Brown authored a high-profile article on embracing “mindful drinking” and detailing his own complicated relationship with alcohol.
Brown believes zero-proof cocktails can be just as delicious, interesting, and thought-provoking as those with booze. While he’s also noticed an anecdotal increase in alcohol consumption, he doesn’t think that will harm the low and no movements. In fact, Brown believes our current situation might serve as a wake-up call for many. “A lot of people who went into this wondering whether they had a drinking problem will come out of it knowing the answer to that,” he says.
For those who do, there’s never been a broader range of alternatives and support to help change those habits.
The article Will the Low- and No-ABV Movements Survive Covid-19? appeared first on VinePair.
Via https://vinepair.com/articles/coronavirus-impact-low-no-alcohol-movements/
source https://vinology1.weebly.com/blog/will-the-low-and-no-abv-movements-survive-covid-19
0 notes
isaiahrippinus · 4 years
Text
Will the Low- and No-ABV Movements Survive Covid-19?
Tumblr media
If it seems like everyone in your social media feed is drinking more right now, they probably are. According to IWSR data shared with VinePair, retail alcohol sales during Covid-19 have hit double-digit growth, mirroring “holiday-type” volume and value spending.
Of course, any current data should be examined with the caveat that on-premise sales have plummeted, and many are replacing those purchases with stay-at-home Quarantinis. There’s also stockpiling to consider, though IWSR figures signal that the bulk of this took place during a two-week period in March, and sales since then have remained strong.
But just as our interactions with the physical world are largely confined to the views from our windows, we should not overlook the subjectivity of social media feeds. Put simply: Not everyone is drinking more right now.
“If anything, I’ve seen this kind of outpouring of, ‘Here are all the ways that I’m taking care of myself,’ and lots of people doing yoga and meditation,” says Sam Thonis, co-owner of Getaway, an alcohol-free bar in Brooklyn. Opened in April 2019, the bar has become a brick-and-mortar signifier of the growing low- and no-alcohol movements.
Prior to Covid-19, these movements had started gaining significant traction, with coverage reaching national media. By the end of last year, publications such as The Washington Post and The New York Times had devoted significant column inches to the popularity of lower-ABV spritz cocktails and hard seltzers, and the growing interest in the “sober-curious” lifestyle. While it was harder to back the “trend” with sales data, low- and no-ABV drinks had by then entered the cultural lexicon.
But like everything else right now, the future of the low and no movements feels delicately poised. Convincing drinkers that it might be a good idea to lower their alcohol consumption is difficult enough at the best of times, let alone in the midst of a global pandemic. And looking forward, there’s the dark cloud of recession looming on the horizon, which is likely to impact consumer spending. That could be a particular challenge for the zero-proof category, whose products have been priced at retail similarly to the boozy libations they were designed to replace. To boot: The non-alcoholic botanical “spirit” Seedlip sells for around $30 for 700 milliliters, while a slightly larger bottle of Bombay Sapphire gin sells for $25. These issues raise the question: What does Covid-19 mean for the future of the nascent low- and no-ABV movements?
Drinking Habits In a Global Pandemic
For Thonis, there’s no question that the zero-proof scene was gaining traction prior to Covid-19. After Getaway opened, it received significant press. While skeptics could argue it seemed like a niche “New York” concept, multiple operators around the country reached out to Thonis and told him they wanted to emulate his model.
Sales, too, seemed to indicate that the city that never sleeps was willing to take the occasional night off from booze. “Before March, when everything changed, the two normal months of 2020 were our best months yet,” he says. “We were on a serious upswing.”
Sadly, those sales have now crashed to nothing. Unlike some New York cocktail bars, Getaway hasn’t pivoted to takeaway or to-go options. And when stay-at-home orders are finally relaxed, Thonis realizes his bar’s offerings might be deemed as a luxury by some. “[Non-alcoholic cocktails] are not human necessities, unlike food and arguably alcohol,” he says.
Lifestyle writer Ruby Warrington has noticed contrasting attitudes on her social media feeds. In 2018, the New-York-based British author wrote a book on alcohol abstinence titled “Sober Curious.” Some have even credited the work with popularizing the no-ABV movement. Warrington also hosts a podcast of the same name and interacts via social media with a community of people who choose not to drink.
Many of those interactions have included people speaking about how glad they are that they don’t drink right now and don’t need to navigate hangovers in the midst of a pandemic. But when she opens her Facebook feed, which has a lot of people from her “pre-sober-curious life” in the U.K., she notices some friends repeating the kind of statements that could double as a quarantine meme, such as “How early is too early to start drinking?” and “Drinking alone doesn’t count in a crisis.”
“It almost feels like there’s a lot of bravado, a ‘let’s drink our way through it’ sort of attitude,” she says. “With my sober-curious goggles on, it does seem like underneath there’s a lot of fear.”
Her evaluation is backed by psychological science. “It makes a lot of sense that people are drinking more during this time: They want instant relief from anxiety, boredom, depression, and just not wanting to feel their feelings — alcohol offers a solution to that,” says Lindsay Hayden, a New York-based licensed mental health counselor who specializes in addiction.
Hayden warns that without the structure and routine of normal life, those who are using only alcohol as a coping mechanism could soon be facing more serious issues. “Not everyone who is relying on alcohol will come out of the pandemic with an alcohol addiction, but it is definitely something people should be watching out for,” she says.
Drinking Habits During a Recession
While the “new normal” of quarantine life is unprecedented to all experiencing it, at least some of what comes after Covid-19 is not without parallel. By many accounts, the world economy is headed into a long and potentially deep recession. The IMF predicts the coronavirus crisis could knock as much as $9 trillion off global GDP over the next two years. If previous recessions are benchmarks, that doesn’t spell good news for the low- and no-ABV movements.
During the eight-month 2001 recession, whose economic impact lasted for several years, alcohol volume sales grew year-over-year, totaling a 4 percent increase between 2001 and 2004, according to IWSR’s chief operating officer, Brandy Rand.
While alcohol sales growth was somewhat flat during the Great Recession of December 2007 to June 2009, that was only because of declining beer sales. “[U]nemployment rate at the end of 2009 was 10 percent, yet there was still an upward consumption trend outside of beer,” Rand explains.
The purchasing habits from both of the most recent recessions indicate that when economic times are tough, consumers turn to the bottle. Amid the uncertainty, and with less cash in their pockets, they also favor higher-ABV beverages to leverage more bang for buck.
Lisa Laird Dunn, executive vice president of Laird & Company, predicts a similar trend this time around. Founded in 1780, her family runs the oldest licensed distillery in America. In its 200-plus-year history, Laird & Co. has survived more than 30 recessions, two world wars, and even Prohibition.
While known for its Applejack, the distillery’s portfolio contains a broad range of products, priced from high- end to value brands. Laird Dunn confirms that the company’s lower-priced value brands typically sell best during a recession and expects to see a repeat of this trend following Covid-19. “I think you’ll find that there will be more price shopping versus just brand shopping,” she says.
But national sales statistics and the experience of recession-defying distilleries paint just part of the picture.
In January 2013, the University of Buffalo published a study on alcohol use during the Great Recession. Polling more than 2 million Americans between 2006 and 2010, the study uncovered notable increases in heavy drinking (3.9 percent) and frequent binge drinking (7.1 percent), but also found a slight increase in abstention from alcohol (0.8 percent). Put more simply: Not everyone decided to drink more. And there’s more than just anecdotal references to prove the same thing is happening right now.
On Thursday, global research firm Wine Intelligence published its first Covid-19-related consumer analysis report. Based on data collected at the end of March and beginning of April, the report found that, on average, wine consumption has remained stable during lockdown. But once again, this trend only tells part of the story.
“We’re seeing an increase in frequency of wine consumption amongst more engaged wine drinkers,” says CEO Lulie Halstead. “So those who were already drinking wine at higher frequencies are increasing that frequency.”
On the flip side, younger drinkers who were just discovering wine are now drinking it much less frequently than before, she adds. While this finding is based on data collected in Australia, Halstead says early examinations of international data appear to show a similar trend in other markets.
Hope For the Low- and No-ABV Movements
During previous recessions, those who opted not to drink were limited to sodas, seltzers, and water. But this time around, the market is already awash with interesting alcohol alternatives. From no-ABV beers to zero-proof spirits, there are a number of non-alcoholic options that taste just like the real thing (or pretty darn close) without the alcohol and with fewer calories. If consumers can get past price concerns, the compelling flavors and low-calorie appeal of these products could help keep the low and no movements humming along.
As one notable example, Scottish brewery BrewDog has reported strong demand for its range of alcohol-free beers this year. Compared to the last four months of 2019, volume sales on its e-commerce platform have surged more than 350 percent between January and April of this year.
“Just last week, we had our strongest day of online sales ever with the launch of our newest NA beer: Ghost Walker,” says CEO Jason Block. Demand from wholesalers has been stronger still, with volume growth reaching quadruple digits during the first four months of 2020.
The thirst for no-ABV spirits appears to be similarly strong. Ritual Zero Proof, a non-alcoholic beverage brand that offers gin, tequila, and whiskey alternatives, sold its entire six-month inventory in just five weeks when it launched in September last year. Despite the current global pandemic, March 2020 sales were up 16 percent over February, and April sales are on track to double that.
“Spirit alternatives like Ritual are today what veggie burgers and almond milk were a few years back: New, easy to knock, and so broadly desired there are now sections in the grocery store dedicated to them,” says founding partner Marcus Sakey. “Almond milk did $5.3 billion in 2018.”
Support from internationally acclaimed bartenders has given these alternatives further credentials. At Bar Kumiko in Chicago, partner and director Julia Momose curated an extensive “Spiritfrees” cocktail menu. The bar is currently offering five of these drinks as part of a temporary to-go menu.
One of the most vocal supporters of the low- and no-ABV drinks has been Derek Brown, owner of Washington D.C.’s Columbia Room. In February, Brown authored a high-profile article on embracing “mindful drinking” and detailing his own complicated relationship with alcohol.
Brown believes zero-proof cocktails can be just as delicious, interesting, and thought-provoking as those with booze. While he’s also noticed an anecdotal increase in alcohol consumption, he doesn’t think that will harm the low and no movements. In fact, Brown believes our current situation might serve as a wake-up call for many. “A lot of people who went into this wondering whether they had a drinking problem will come out of it knowing the answer to that,” he says.
For those who do, there’s never been a broader range of alternatives and support to help change those habits.
The article Will the Low- and No-ABV Movements Survive Covid-19? appeared first on VinePair.
source https://vinepair.com/articles/coronavirus-impact-low-no-alcohol-movements/ source https://vinology1.tumblr.com/post/616288664749834240
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takebackthedream · 6 years
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Why Republicans Are Rebooting the For-Profit College Industry by Jeff Bryant
A controversial rewrite of the Higher Education Act that just passed out of committee in the House of Representatives in a strict party-line vote will likely reboot floundering for-profit colleges and revive the scandals associated with this industry should it clear intact the full House and Senate.
The Promoting Real Opportunity, Success, and Prosperity through Education Reform (PROSPER) Act aims to, according to a report in The New York Times, “dismantle landmark Obama administration regulations designed to protect students from predatory for-profit colleges and to repay the loans of those who earned worthless degrees from scam universities.”
During the House committee markup, Democratic Representative Mark Takano proposed an amendment to “hold for-profit colleges accountable,” he reported to his Twitter followers, with a graphic showing that of the 98,868 complaints filed against colleges that have “defrauded or misled” students, 97,506 were complaints leveled against for-profit colleges versus 789 against non-profit colleges. His amendment was overturned by a solid Republican block of opposition. “This should not be a partisan issue,” he tweeted after the defeat.
But support for the for-profit college industry is “partisan,” and here’s why: big money.
Trump, DeVos Feed the For-Profit Beast
The morning after the 2016 general election ushered in the Donald Trump presidency and Republican majorities in both houses of Congress, stocks of for-profit education companies spiked, and mere days later, investors on Wall Street declared “the cloud has lifted” on the prospects for investments in the for-profit college industry.
Concerns that these schools pushed desperate students into useless degree programs that led to massive debts and few prospects for jobs –all at taxpayer expense – had prompted the Obama administration to crackdown on for-profit colleges.
But by December, before Trump had uttered a single word of support for these schools, investors had already “poured hundreds of millions of dollars,” according to The Wall Street Journal, into large for-profits such as DeVry Education Group, Strayer Education, Bridgepoint Education, and Grand Canyon Education.
Much of the speculation was doubtlessly driven by the fact Trump had lent his name to a scam school of his own – Trump University, which became the subject of three lawsuits that he settled for a $25 million payout shortly after his election. His appointment of billionaire heiress and Republican mega-donor Betsy DeVos to be his education Secretary also seemed a strong enough indicator for investors to open the sluices.
DeVos seemed to respond according to investors’ plans. First, she delayed implementation of the gainful employment rule, an Obama reform that penalizes career-oriented for-profit programs from letting students run up huge debts while they pursue careers that are low paying or have few job prospects. She also withdrew key federal student loan servicing reforms that make it easier for college students to have loans discharged when they’ve been defrauded by schools. And she gave strong signs her department would ease the regulatory environment for the taxpayer-financed career education sector, which for-profit colleges dominate.
Encouraged by these signs, reported the Chicago Tribune, investors sent stock price increases for for-profit colleges significantly beyond the rest of the market, with Grand Canyon University up 55 percent, DeVry up 52 percent, Strayer University up 37 percent, and Career Education up 34 percent, while the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index was up 10 percent over the same period.
More recently, DeVos picked to head a unit that investigates fraud in higher education a former dean of for-profit college, Julian Schmoke Jr., who worked at DeVry University from late 2008 to 2012. For the senior counselor and regulatory reform officer for her department, DeVos pcked Robert Eitel, a former top executive at Bridgepoint. Bridgdepoint is a for-profit higher ed provider that has had numerous violations involving mistaken financial information given to government agencies and students and is currently under investigation by the department.
She also “stopped cancelling the student-loan debt of people defrauded by failed for-profit schools,” according to a report by Reuters, “and those borrowers face mounting interest and other burdens.”
The Secretary’s actions are a repudiation of Obama’s efforts to rein in irresponsible for-profit colleges, in this case, by canceling debts of people who attended Corinthian Colleges, which collapsed in 2015 when Obama’s department of education fined the schools $30 million for misrepresenting their job placement rates.
The favors Trump and DeVos are granting to the for-profit college industry reflect the generosity of campaign contributions the sector has generally showered on Republicans, especially since the advent of the regulatory constrains issued in the Obama years.
History of Scandal
After 2008, negative news reports about the for-profit college industry increased significantly when those schools ratcheted up recruitment efforts to take advantage of workers who lost their jobs during the Great Recession and recruit from veterans returning from the Iraq War.
Education policy observers began to notice that between 2001-2009, students attending for-profit versus nonprofit colleges were way more often needing to borrow money –nearly double the rate in 4-year for-profits and quadruple the rate of less-than-4-year institutions. Meanwhile, the dropout rates at the for-profit institutions was rising sharply, by 20 percent for for-profit 4-year institutions and 9 percent for for-profit less-than-4-year institutions –  compared to a 6 percent increase in the overall higher ed market.
By 2010, only 22 percent of first- and full-time students pursuing bachelor’s degrees at for-profit institutions in 2008 graduated, compared with 55 percent and 65 percent of students at public and private nonprofit universities, respectively.
The bad publicity included a 2010 report by the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pension that found while for-profit colleges were rapidly gobbling up larger shares of federal college student loan funds and swelling the ranks of dropouts, the businesses themselves were reaping much higher profits. According to the Senate committee’s findings, 16 companies generated profits of $2.7 billion in 2009 alone, and between FY2009 and 2010, one company had more than doubled its profits – from $119 million to $241 million – while a second went from $235 million to $411 million.
Buying Up Legislators
The for-profit college industry responded to these negative reports not by instituting an industry overhaul, but by ramping up their political donations.
“Campaign contributions from the for-profit education industry have been steadily increasing nearly every year since 1990,” reports OpenSecrets, a watchdog on political donors and their recipients.
But from 2008 to 2010, PACs and individuals associated with for-profits increased contributions to federal political campaigns from $850,000 to over $2.4 million 2010.
Money spent on lobbying by for-profits intensified too, rising to nearly a million dollars by 2011.
By 2014, campaign contributions from the for-profit college industry had exceeded four million, according to OpenSecrets, with much of it going “to members of Congress who oppose greater regulation of the industry, including proposed curbs on aggressive recruiting of veterans with G.I. Bill benefits,” The Hechinger Report found.
While political giving from for-profit colleges was growing, the partisan nature of it was changing. Since the Bill Clinton presidential administration, political donations from the for-profits had been generally bipartisan. But by 2010, contributions swung decidedly to the Republican side. In 2017, of the top 20 recipients of for-profit education donations, only five are Democrats.
There are reasons for the swing.
First, the scathing Senate report on for-profit colleges that came out in 2010 was authored by a Democrat, committee chair Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa. Senate Republicans accused Harkin of conducting a “witch hunt” and walked out of the committee hearing where he presented his findings. Ever since, Republicans have conducted a campaign repudiating the findings and defending for-profits. Then, new regulatory reforms rolled out by Obama to address those problems further distanced the two parties’ stances on the industry.
That turn of events, as well as the decidedly strong shift in Republican wins at all levels of government, likely influenced for-profit college political giving to favor Republicans.
Who Really Prospers
The PROSPER legislation approved by the House committee was authored by Republican Representatives Virginia Foxx of North Carolina and Rep. Brett Guthrie of Kentucky.
Foxx and Guthrie are among the five most generous recipients of for-profit college industry money in 2017, with Foxx ranking at the top with $45,450 and Guthrie fourth at $17,500.
Foxx and Guthrie both serve on the House Education and Workforce Committee that approves education-related legislation. Foxx chairs that committee.
Other current members of that committee getting for-profit college industry cash include Republicans Duncan Hunter of California, Todd Rokita of Indiana, and  Lou Barletta of Pennsylvania. Ranking Member Bobby Scott, a Democrat from Virginia, has also gotten donations.
Foxx, who has a background in higher ed, has claimed for-profit colleges are “more efficient.” She once compared attempts to regulate the industry to the Holocaust and said in an interview with the Chronicle of Higher Education in 2016 that the Obama administration cracked down on for-profit colleges “arbitrarily,” and that, “We don’t have evidence that [students in these institutions] were defrauded.”
Foxx has long maintained that government should not be funding education, although she is obviously okay with for-profit education funding her.
For her 2008 re-election campaign, Foxx received $3,000 in donations from the political-action committee of The Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities, which represents for-profit colleges, and employees of Keiser University, a for-profit institution headquartered in Florida – far her district in North Carolina – gave $2,300 to her campaign.
As of 2012, OpenSecrets counted 22 companies or trade associations in the for-profit college industry that are Foxx’s top contributors, including: Bridgepoint and the Apollo Group (which owns the University of Phoenix). The education sector is the second largest donor to her campaigns, according to campaign donation site VoteSmart, with her largest donor being Full Sail. Full Sail, you may recall, is the for-profit college praised by Mitt Romney when he ran for president in 2008.
Reason for the Reboot
What PROSPER calls for is to undo regulations that have shown some evidence of working, argues Kevin Carey of New America foundation in The New York Times.
The evidence Carey cites is that among the 500 programs that ran afoul of the Obama administration’s gainful employment rule, at least 300 shut down before they were required to do so.
Despite the progress, the need to rein in these schools and rescue their students remains acute. In 2015-16, federal government reports show 3.9 million undergraduates with federal student loan debt dropped out. More than 900,000 of these students left for-profit universities, making up 23 percent of all indebted dropouts, although only 10 percent of all undergraduates attend for-profits. In a ranking of colleges by their numbers of indebted dropouts, for-profits comprise the top five.
Republican efforts to reboot the for-profit college industry, including the PROSPER bill, are the result of the industry’s abilities to purchase government officials and political appointees with their donations in order to turn the clock back to the days when it had a free hand to do whatever it wanted.
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martinfzimmerman · 7 years
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Are tech stocks in danger?
If you don't remember the speculative frenzy behind the dot.com bubble in the late 1990s, it is hard to convey the scale of what happened.
The sheer excitement as technology stock valuations spiralled was a wonder to behold. Companies popped up out of nowhere and were suddenly valued at billions, even if they hadn't made a cent. Share prices doubled, tripled and quadrupled in months or in some cases weeks. The technology-focused Nasdaq index quintupled from around 1,000 points in 1995 to more than 5,000 in March 2000.
The tech bubble infected people who had never even considered investing before. Taxi drivers were dishing out share tips, I remember a London cabbie telling me how his stake in fashion retail website Boo.com was going to fund his retirement.
UK fund manager Tony Dye became known as "Dr Doom" for shunning internet stocks, which he considered overvalued and was duly sacked in February 2000. The following month, the bubble burst. Dr Doom had called it right, just too early.
The crash wiped 50 per cent off global stock markets after investors lost their nerve and venture capital dried up.
The dot.com boom and bust was a shocking event, dwarfed only by the financial crisis of 2008. Now people fear it could be happening all over again. So are we heading for another dot.com bomb and should you run for cover?
Look back at 2000 and the fallout was huge. In the US, the Nasdaq technology index tumbled from a high of 5,132 in March 2000 to barely 2,300 in late December. Companies worth billions at their initial public offering (IPO) were suddenly worth nothing at all. US dot.com top dog Pets.com was put down, losing US$300 million of venture capital. Boo.com burned through $135m in 18 months before going bankrupt (taking my cabbie's retirement dreams with it). Online retailer Amazon's stock plunged from $107 to just $7, but it survived, as did eBay. More than $1 trillion was wiped off global stock values. Within a year, the world was in recession.
Tech is back
It took the best part of a year for the dot.com bubble to deflate, and many more years before the recovery properly set in, but it got there in the end. The Nasdaq is now booming again, with a total return of 125 per cent over the past five years. It has beaten its all-time high more than 20 times this year to stand at 6,247 at time of writing.
Amazon stock hit $1,000 in May, up 44 per cent in the past 12 months alone. If you had invested $10,000 a decade ago, you would have $160,000 today.
This is making analysts increasingly suspicious. Bank of America Merrill Lynch chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett warned in May of a speculative frenzy as the sector hit highs last seen during 2000, warning that "we are in the very early stages of an overshoot".
Another Dr Doom, Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, has warned that the meteoric rise of Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google, collectively known as the FANG stocks, has left markets dangerously overvalued and share prices could fall 40 per cent from here.
The bull market has been running for more than eight years but the show is being kept on the road by a small number of US-listed technology behemoths. The FANG stocks plus Microsoft are responsible for almost 40 per cent of the gain in the S&P 500 Index in 2017.
They have added a total of $600 billion of market capitalisation this year, the equivalent GDP of Hong Kong and South Africa combined
News that Jeff Bezos, who is now worth almost $80bn and the world's second wealthiest person behind Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, sold one million Amazon shares worth $941m in May, which added to the climate of fear.
Fawad Razaqzada, a technical analyst at foreign exchange specialists Forex.com, warns that bull runs like this have a habit of ending abruptly. "If technology falls, it will undermine investor confidence and drag almost every major global index lower."
Then on June 9, the long-feared sell-off began, sparked by Goldman Sachs' chief investment officer Robert Bouroujerdi's warnings about inflated tech valuations. Apple's shares fell 4 per cent, knocking more than $30bn from the market cap of the world's most valuable company. Google parent Alphabet, Facebook and Amazon each fell 3 per cent, while Microsoft dipped 2 per cent.
There was a brief panic - then markets settled, and started climbing again. Mr Razaqzada says the question now is whether this is the start of the correction, or merely a pause in what remains a strong bullish trend. "If we see further breakdown of support levels things could get ugly really quickly. So far, it has held up well."
Beware the bandwagon
Chris Beauchamp, the chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, which has offices in the UAE, warns that tech stock latecomers are vulnerable to a slowdown or dip. "However, those rushing to proclaim the demise of the tech rally need to be careful - there will be plenty of dip buyers out there who have been waiting for a pullback," he says.
That is exactly what happened after the June 9 stumble. "Buyers rushed in to defend the Nasdaq 100 lows around 5640 which then quickly rebounded above 6000 to hit today's highs."
Peter Garnry, head of quantitative strategies at Saxo Bank, does not expect a technology crash. "You need a trigger and currently it's not there."
The sector has outperformed year-to-date and looks overextended on the charts, but there is positive news too. "The earnings momentum is there and the alternatives are unattractive for long-term investors. As a result, the rotation into technology stocks remains strong."
Calling a market crash is near impossible at any time and in this case you would be betting against strong momentum in biotechnology company share prices and earnings, as well as healthy investor inflows, Mr Garnry says. "It doesn't look like a winning bet to me."
The big technology stocks are also making big money, so their forward valuations look far from stretched. "Alphabet trades at only a small premium to the S&P 500, whereas Apple is actually trading at 25 per cent discount," he adds.
Facebook may trade at a 20 per cent premium but that can be justified by forecast revenue growth of 40 per cent over the next 12 months, against 5 per cent across the S&P500.
Mr Garnry notes that Amazon is trading at 50 per cent premium to the wider market and is in danger of having bubble-like valuations: "However, the key issue is that the alternatives to technology are not that attractive as most other stock market sectors and industries have lower growth. "Government bonds offer around 1 per cent and investment-grade corporate bonds offer around 2 per cent. So what's the alternative?"
Though he admits some parts of the technology sector could suffer a setback. "Cloud-based companies, IT security and software companies are trading at very high multiples which may likely not be sustainable if we see a slowdown in the global economy."
Growth story
Tom Stevenson, investment director for personal investing at Fidelity International, says there are worrying parallels with the original dot.com bubble. "Nasdaq is outperforming the broader market, just as it did in 1999. Also, growth is concentrated in a narrow group of companies, a typical sign that we are near the top of the market."
The dot.com bubble saw massively over-subscribed IPOs, similar to what we are seeing today. "Investors have lost interest in traditional valuation metrics," says Mr Stevenson. "Witness Snapchat's recent flotation, and subsequent volatility. Netflix combines strong subscriber growth with big cash outflows."
However, Mr Stevenson sees notable differences too. "The euphoria of 1999 is almost wholly absent. Today's enthusiasm for technology stocks is not really rose-tinted optimism but a grudging belief that in a sluggish world the sector is one of the few places that investors can find reliable growth."
Another key difference is that in the 1990s, there were just 300 million internet users. Today, there are more than three billion, 10 times the amount, many of whom could not live without their smartphone. The big players are making huge sums of money, for example, Apple posted quarterly revenue of $52.9bn in the three months to April 1 this year. In its latest quarter, Alphabet's revenues totalled $24.75bn.
Valuations are high but nothing like the 1990s. "Apple trades at around 17 times earnings, which is close to fair value whereas during the bubble, Oracle, for example, traded at 140 times earnings. It lost 86 per cent of its value in the crash. Disruptive technologies deserve high valuations."
Technology companies can enjoy massive growth while working through relatively small amounts of capital. "It took hotel chain Marriott 70 years to get to 700,000 rooms. Airbnb has 1.5m in just seven years," Mr Stevenson adds.
Finally, Mr Stevenson says there is little of the froth that we saw last time round. "The mood music is more subdued and sceptical than 17 years ago. Tech provides growth in a low-growth world."
Global stock markets are nearing exhaustion after a lengthy bull run and it is clearly a concern that investors are effectively gambling on the fortunes of just five major companies: Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Netflix.
This is not the time to throw large sums into the market, expecting it to repeat its magic. However, calling a crash is a thankless task. Even if you are right, you are likely to get the timing wrong.
The key is to make sure you are fully diversified, by spreading your investments between stocks, cash, bonds, property and other assets, and only invest in shares you will not need for at least five or 10 years.
Technology stocks could bomb again, but just like last time, they will also bounce back.
from Personal Finance RSS feed - The National http://www.thenational.ae/business/personal-finance/are-tech-stocks-in-danger
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wineanddinosaur · 4 years
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Will the Low- and No-ABV Movements Survive Covid-19?
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If it seems like everyone in your social media feed is drinking more right now, they probably are. According to IWSR data shared with VinePair, retail alcohol sales during Covid-19 have hit double-digit growth, mirroring “holiday-type” volume and value spending.
Of course, any current data should be examined with the caveat that on-premise sales have plummeted, and many are replacing those purchases with stay-at-home Quarantinis. There’s also stockpiling to consider, though IWSR figures signal that the bulk of this took place during a two-week period in March, and sales since then have remained strong.
But just as our interactions with the physical world are largely confined to the views from our windows, we should not overlook the subjectivity of social media feeds. Put simply: Not everyone is drinking more right now.
“If anything, I’ve seen this kind of outpouring of, ‘Here are all the ways that I’m taking care of myself,’ and lots of people doing yoga and meditation,” says Sam Thonis, co-owner of Getaway, an alcohol-free bar in Brooklyn. Opened in April 2019, the bar has become a brick-and-mortar signifier of the growing low- and no-alcohol movements.
Prior to Covid-19, these movements had started gaining significant traction, with coverage reaching national media. By the end of last year, publications such as The Washington Post and The New York Times had devoted significant column inches to the popularity of lower-ABV spritz cocktails and hard seltzers, and the growing interest in the “sober-curious” lifestyle. While it was harder to back the “trend” with sales data, low- and no-ABV drinks had by then entered the cultural lexicon.
But like everything else right now, the future of the low and no movements feels delicately poised. Convincing drinkers that it might be a good idea to lower their alcohol consumption is difficult enough at the best of times, let alone in the midst of a global pandemic. And looking forward, there’s the dark cloud of recession looming on the horizon, which is likely to impact consumer spending. That could be a particular challenge for the zero-proof category, whose products have been priced at retail similarly to the boozy libations they were designed to replace. To boot: The non-alcoholic botanical “spirit” Seedlip sells for around $30 for 700 milliliters, while a slightly larger bottle of Bombay Sapphire gin sells for $25. These issues raise the question: What does Covid-19 mean for the future of the nascent low- and no-ABV movements?
Drinking Habits In a Global Pandemic
For Thonis, there’s no question that the zero-proof scene was gaining traction prior to Covid-19. After Getaway opened, it received significant press. While skeptics could argue it seemed like a niche “New York” concept, multiple operators around the country reached out to Thonis and told him they wanted to emulate his model.
Sales, too, seemed to indicate that the city that never sleeps was willing to take the occasional night off from booze. “Before March, when everything changed, the two normal months of 2020 were our best months yet,” he says. “We were on a serious upswing.”
Sadly, those sales have now crashed to nothing. Unlike some New York cocktail bars, Getaway hasn’t pivoted to takeaway or to-go options. And when stay-at-home orders are finally relaxed, Thonis realizes his bar’s offerings might be deemed as a luxury by some. “[Non-alcoholic cocktails] are not human necessities, unlike food and arguably alcohol,” he says.
Lifestyle writer Ruby Warrington has noticed contrasting attitudes on her social media feeds. In 2018, the New-York-based British author wrote a book on alcohol abstinence titled “Sober Curious.” Some have even credited the work with popularizing the no-ABV movement. Warrington also hosts a podcast of the same name and interacts via social media with a community of people who choose not to drink.
Many of those interactions have included people speaking about how glad they are that they don’t drink right now and don’t need to navigate hangovers in the midst of a pandemic. But when she opens her Facebook feed, which has a lot of people from her “pre-sober-curious life” in the U.K., she notices some friends repeating the kind of statements that could double as a quarantine meme, such as “How early is too early to start drinking?” and “Drinking alone doesn’t count in a crisis.”
“It almost feels like there’s a lot of bravado, a ‘let’s drink our way through it’ sort of attitude,” she says. “With my sober-curious goggles on, it does seem like underneath there’s a lot of fear.”
Her evaluation is backed by psychological science. “It makes a lot of sense that people are drinking more during this time: They want instant relief from anxiety, boredom, depression, and just not wanting to feel their feelings — alcohol offers a solution to that,” says Lindsay Hayden, a New York-based licensed mental health counselor who specializes in addiction.
Hayden warns that without the structure and routine of normal life, those who are using only alcohol as a coping mechanism could soon be facing more serious issues. “Not everyone who is relying on alcohol will come out of the pandemic with an alcohol addiction, but it is definitely something people should be watching out for,” she says.
Drinking Habits During a Recession
While the “new normal” of quarantine life is unprecedented to all experiencing it, at least some of what comes after Covid-19 is not without parallel. By many accounts, the world economy is headed into a long and potentially deep recession. The IMF predicts the coronavirus crisis could knock as much as $9 trillion off global GDP over the next two years. If previous recessions are benchmarks, that doesn’t spell good news for the low- and no-ABV movements.
During the eight-month 2001 recession, whose economic impact lasted for several years, alcohol volume sales grew year-over-year, totaling a 4 percent increase between 2001 and 2004, according to IWSR’s chief operating officer, Brandy Rand.
While alcohol sales growth was somewhat flat during the Great Recession of December 2007 to June 2009, that was only because of declining beer sales. “[U]nemployment rate at the end of 2009 was 10 percent, yet there was still an upward consumption trend outside of beer,” Rand explains.
The purchasing habits from both of the most recent recessions indicate that when economic times are tough, consumers turn to the bottle. Amid the uncertainty, and with less cash in their pockets, they also favor higher-ABV beverages to leverage more bang for buck.
Lisa Laird Dunn, executive vice president of Laird & Company, predicts a similar trend this time around. Founded in 1780, her family runs the oldest licensed distillery in America. In its 200-plus-year history, Laird & Co. has survived more than 30 recessions, two world wars, and even Prohibition.
While known for its Applejack, the distillery’s portfolio contains a broad range of products, priced from high- end to value brands. Laird Dunn confirms that the company’s lower-priced value brands typically sell best during a recession and expects to see a repeat of this trend following Covid-19. “I think you’ll find that there will be more price shopping versus just brand shopping,” she says.
But national sales statistics and the experience of recession-defying distilleries paint just part of the picture.
In January 2013, the University of Buffalo published a study on alcohol use during the Great Recession. Polling more than 2 million Americans between 2006 and 2010, the study uncovered notable increases in heavy drinking (3.9 percent) and frequent binge drinking (7.1 percent), but also found a slight increase in abstention from alcohol (0.8 percent). Put more simply: Not everyone decided to drink more. And there’s more than just anecdotal references to prove the same thing is happening right now.
On Thursday, global research firm Wine Intelligence published its first Covid-19-related consumer analysis report. Based on data collected at the end of March and beginning of April, the report found that, on average, wine consumption has remained stable during lockdown. But once again, this trend only tells part of the story.
“We’re seeing an increase in frequency of wine consumption amongst more engaged wine drinkers,” says CEO Lulie Halstead. “So those who were already drinking wine at higher frequencies are increasing that frequency.”
On the flip side, younger drinkers who were just discovering wine are now drinking it much less frequently than before, she adds. While this finding is based on data collected in Australia, Halstead says early examinations of international data appear to show a similar trend in other markets.
Hope For the Low- and No-ABV Movements
During previous recessions, those who opted not to drink were limited to sodas, seltzers, and water. But this time around, the market is already awash with interesting alcohol alternatives. From no-ABV beers to zero-proof spirits, there are a number of non-alcoholic options that taste just like the real thing (or pretty darn close) without the alcohol and with fewer calories. If consumers can get past price concerns, the compelling flavors and low-calorie appeal of these products could help keep the low and no movements humming along.
As one notable example, Scottish brewery BrewDog has reported strong demand for its range of alcohol-free beers this year. Compared to the last four months of 2019, volume sales on its e-commerce platform have surged more than 350 percent between January and April of this year.
“Just last week, we had our strongest day of online sales ever with the launch of our newest NA beer: Ghost Walker,” says CEO Jason Block. Demand from wholesalers has been stronger still, with volume growth reaching quadruple digits during the first four months of 2020.
The thirst for no-ABV spirits appears to be similarly strong. Ritual Zero Proof, a non-alcoholic beverage brand that offers gin, tequila, and whiskey alternatives, sold its entire six-month inventory in just five weeks when it launched in September last year. Despite the current global pandemic, March 2020 sales were up 16 percent over February, and April sales are on track to double that.
“Spirit alternatives like Ritual are today what veggie burgers and almond milk were a few years back: New, easy to knock, and so broadly desired there are now sections in the grocery store dedicated to them,” says founding partner Marcus Sakey. “Almond milk did $5.3 billion in 2018.”
Support from internationally acclaimed bartenders has given these alternatives further credentials. At Bar Kumiko in Chicago, partner and director Julia Momose curated an extensive “Spiritfrees” cocktail menu. The bar is currently offering five of these drinks as part of a temporary to-go menu.
One of the most vocal supporters of the low- and no-ABV drinks has been Derek Brown, owner of Washington D.C.’s Columbia Room. In February, Brown authored a high-profile article on embracing “mindful drinking” and detailing his own complicated relationship with alcohol.
Brown believes zero-proof cocktails can be just as delicious, interesting, and thought-provoking as those with booze. While he’s also noticed an anecdotal increase in alcohol consumption, he doesn’t think that will harm the low and no movements. In fact, Brown believes our current situation might serve as a wake-up call for many. “A lot of people who went into this wondering whether they had a drinking problem will come out of it knowing the answer to that,” he says.
For those who do, there’s never been a broader range of alternatives and support to help change those habits.
The article Will the Low- and No-ABV Movements Survive Covid-19? appeared first on VinePair.
source https://vinepair.com/articles/coronavirus-impact-low-no-alcohol-movements/
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