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michaelnguyendotme · 1 year

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Well...Happy New Year to you! I wish you a prosperous New Year of 2023! How many of you made New Year's resolutions? Let me be honest. How many of you have broken one already? anyone? How many of you are planning to break the rest while reading till the end of this blog? ...comm'n...don't be shy... For me, I made 2 resolutions. 1. Live my L.I.F.E™ (Lucrative, Innovative, Fun, and Easy) business to the fullest In 2023, I am pushing harder to distribute the $44-million blockchain stimulus to qualified business owners (more on that later). But first, let's shift our attention to China's 1-0 victory over the USA. Last week, the White House flew the 4,000-page-plus legislation to St. Croix so Mr. Biden could sign into law a $1.65 Trillion Spending Bill where the US government will owe billions of dollars they don't have of interest to China ...to avoid another government lockdown ...to give $45 billion in aid to help Ukraine fight against Russia’s invasion But who's paying for all these? US Taxpayers What's even worst to come is, later on, the US government has to borrow more and go deeper into debt just to pay the interest. Heck! I am just mid-way through my blog and uncle Sam has already broken its New Year's resolution: more debt. Anyway, what is it about the blockchain stimulus? It's not debt from which you or your grandchildren don't have to pay a dime of interest to China or anyone. This stimulus is not even issued by the US Government. "Where is the stimulus coming from?" you asked. It's new-found money locked in the blockchain earning interest daily so that the interest will be distributed to qualified business owners in the form of lottery prizes. At the time of writing, here's the current state of the blockchain stimulus: Stimulus amount: $42,464,64967,349 participants1,266 winners in the last 7 days$7,968 won in the last 7 days "How can I benefit from it?", you ponder. You can benefit in a couple of ways Option 1: You can certainly participate and have a chance to enter the DAILY drawing to win prizes from $1 - $200Option 2: You can also have your customers enroll in the DAILY drawing for them to win prizes WITHOUT you putting down a dime. Option 2 is my favorite because you use OPM (Other People Money) to grow yours WITHOUT paying interest!! (you're welcome, child). Heck! you outsmart even uncle Sam who borrows money to pay interest to China for the sake of protecting mice in San Francisco and providing extra support for the National Endowment of Arts, and many more... Whatever your option is, your ticket to benefit from the blockchain stimulus is to simply join uSpenduWin.com. 2. Help 1000 entrepreneurs to live their L.I.F.E™ (Lucrative, Innovative, Fun, and Easy) business ASAP and no longer have an S.O.S.™ business (Struggling, Obnoxious, and Stressful). Besides my existing products such as my book "Stop Losing Customers", Churn Buster Kit, Amazon Retention Secrets, and uSpenduWin app, I am planning to start a newsletter called "L.I.F.E Insiders" (sign up here if you want early access). In "L.I.F.E Insiders", I will be writing topics in 4 quadrants: Lucrative: According to the Merriam & Webster dictionary, lucrative means "producing wealth: PROFITABLE". I will share insights, experiences, and information to help turn your business into a more lucrative one even if you already had one. Sometimes, it's not necessarily a how-to, it can be a mindset shift or unlearning a bad habit hindering your business. Innovative Peter Drucker (the "GodFather of modern management") argues that what defines an entrepreneur is their attitude to change: 'the entrepreneur always searches for change, responds to it and exploits it as an opportunity'. Peter Drucker To exploit change, according to Drucker, is to innovate. You can start the process of innovation by asking yourself this question every day:

How can you improve what you are doing faster and more efficiently?Michael Nguyen And when you keep asking this question with the intent to improve and make it better, you will become better. Fun Fun is the most underrated source of internal energy to fuel your entrepreneurial journey. One of my mistakes early on in my career is to make goals based on financial rewards. I still do but it's no longer my #1 priority. Instead, I prioritize having fun...lots of it. And you laugh and have fun with what you do every day, it influences your state of mind and makes you feel good. When you feel good, your family is happy. You serve your tribe better and enthusiastically and people can instantly feel that energy. Easy You probably heard "Asians are good at math". When I first came to the States to study in college from communist Vietnam, I had no friends, no car, and no money. Tan Son Nhat Airport in 1999 when I left Vietnam for the US. I used math to make friends, have them drive me to school, and earned good money $12/hr in 2000 from tutoring math for students. But it comes with a curse. When the only thing you are good at is Math, you tend to make things complex and harder than it looks. Instead of shooting fish in the barrel, I choose to fish in the same pond surrounded by high-tech fishing vessels with state-of-the-art sonars and an unlimited ad budget. No wonder I was struggling early on. You deserve better and don't have to struggle like I did. That's it for my New Year's Resolutions. What are your New Year's resolutions?

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kyogos · 5 years

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I’ve literally just not been here all day

a/ have i missed any juicy drama b/ would anyone like to disown scotland nt with me

#the CLOWNS #how could they lose 4-0 to russia #i am disgusted #i expected nothing and still i am disappointed

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bobby-hockey · 4 years

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CHERRY TREE

arc: gongshow (arc introduction here) tws: vehicle accident, death. length: 2k. summary: in which i incontrovertibly hurt the capitals. also, sasha “ghost” molchalin gets an unwilling new roommate. taglist: @kidsarentallwrite

Philadelphia Flyers @NHLFlyers - Nov. 4 They may be from Washington DC, but this is the City of Brotherly Love! Bring it on, Capitals!

Philadelphia Flyers @NHLFlyers - Nov. 4 Mitty, Martin, and Molchalin start tonight. Retweet for a chance to win five gallons of Flyers-themed M&M(&M)s!

Clarence Taylor. Even the mention of his name is enough to make Sasha break out in annoyed hives—no defenseman has ever been able to read Sasha like Taylor does, and it’s literally the most aggravating thing. Like—yes, okay, Taylor is the captain of the Washington Capitals, was the first overall pick in 2012, got the Calder his rookie year and the Norris last year, has been to the All-Stars more times than Sasha cares to count. That doesn’t mean everyone needs to jump on Taylor’s dick. The guy is fucking irritating.

“Calm down,” Marty says during warm-ups, spotting the look on Sasha’s face when Taylor skates by with a snide little comment lobbed in Sasha’s direction. “I can see your blood pressure rising.”

“He’s a bastard,” Sasha says. He wants to snap his stick in half and maybe use the pointy ends to commit a homicide. Marty’d scruff him like a little cat and Sasha wouldn’t get more than a few strides before his feet cartoonishly skated out from underneath him. But it’s the thought that counts.

“You’re giving him exactly the reaction he wants,” Marty says. “And you’re not special, Ghost, he does that to everyone.”

Sasha does not snap his stick in half, but it takes a Herculean effort. “Don’t bother trying your hippie elementary school teacher horseshit on me,” he says. “I hate him.”

Marty sighs. “Just don’t let him get in your head,” he says, sounding resigned.

Too late. Sasha takes a wild shot at the empty goal and misses—the puck ricochets off the crossbar. Goddammit.

The Washington Capitals are a well-oiled machine: a steady, productive offense backstopped by a tenacious, elite defense and an almost jaw-droppingly good goaltender, and Sasha hates playing against them, mostly because they never fall for Mitty and Marty’s fakeouts. By second intermission they’re still deadlocked at 0-0, and the game—already ugly—is starting to get nasty. While there haven’t been any fights yet, Sasha can feel the tension in the air, a heavy weight like a storm brewing on the horizon.

So maybe Sasha curses at Taylor a little more thoroughly than is strictly warranted when he shoves Sasha into the boards. Sasha hates the guy. It’s been a hard, awful game. He’s allowed.

“Your mother must be so ashamed of you,” Taylor says as the referee whistles the first play of the third period dead, black mouth-guard half-hanging out of his mouth. He’s Canadian, Taylor is, and so is Marty, and while they have the same kind of soft, shallow vowels, Marty is fun and easy to listen to but Taylor’s voice grates against Sasha’s nerves. Sasha’s not a fighter—why would he be, when Marty is 6’10” and impossible to take down—but a single word out of Taylor’s mouth makes Sasha want to drop his gloves and start swinging.

“Go fuck yourself,” Sasha says, scowling.

Taylor grins and, in a bad imitation of Sasha’s Russian accent and a worse imitation of Sasha’s voice, says “Go fuck yourself,” all mocking like. “Come on, Molchalin, what’re you gonna do? Frown at me some more? Y’know your face could get stuck like that.”

Sasha sneers. His shift is up and he’s supposed to be getting off ice—Hartsy’s half over the boards, looking at him expectantly—and Taylor’s heading back to the Capitals bench, this grin on his face like he’s pleased with himself at getting the last word. Sasha doesn’t care for it. At all.

He drops his shoulder and half-checks Taylor as he leaves the ice, sending the defenseman reeling, and when Taylor regains his footing and turns around the grin’s gone, replaced by an annoyed stare.

“Three months and four days,” Sasha says, although if asked he wouldn’t be able to say why: the number just pops into his head, trips off his tongue. “Keep an eye out.”

“What the fuck, Molchalin?” Taylor shouts after him.

Hah, Sasha thinks, and skates back to the Flyers bench.

The Flyers lose—one of the Capitals manages a nasty goal forty seconds before the final buzzer, and the Flyers make an ignominious retreat into the locker room. But that’s fine. Sasha doesn’t mind. It wasn’t Taylor who scored the goal, and Sasha played well. That’s all that he cares about.

Washington Capitals @Capitals - Feb. 8 Just try to beat us at home, @PSSkimmers.

Port Sterling Skimmers @PSSkimmers - Feb. 8 We’re setting sail for Washington DC… time to tackle the Capital!

Washington Capitals @Capitals - Feb. 8 Team bus has been involved in a collision on the I-50E returning from Delaware. Updates will be posted as they come in.

Of course, Sasha thinks to himself, staring up at the floating, incorporeal form of Clarence Taylor hovering over him, Taylor always did have a way to make him regret literally every decision he’d ever made in his life.

“What the fuck,” Taylor howls in his face. “Three months and four days. That’s what you said. You motherfucker. What, you some fucking psychic or something? What kind of sick freak does that and doesn’t give any context? Jesus Christ. You’re an asshole.”

Literally five seconds ago Sasha was sleeping. Why is this happening. He’s not awake enough for this.

“What?” Sasha says, when Taylor seems to break off, and then he remembers their last meeting, back in November: Taylor’s shocked green eyes peering at him over the Capitals bench, blond eyebrows furrowed as he gaped at Sasha. He rubs his eyes, sits up, and then, around a yawn, says “You were counting?”

“Wh—Of course I was counting,” Taylor says, floating backwards. Maybe he’d think it weirder, Clarence Taylor literally floating in Sasha’s bedroom wearing a Capitals shirt and sweatpants, but then again, Sasha’s seen weird, and this is not that. No offense to Mitty, but Mitty kind of breaks the scale of weird shit all on his own. “You mean to tell me that if some asshole came at you with some ominously specific date you’d just, I don’t know, write it off, or whatever? Of course not! I thought you were just gonna play some, some stupid prank on me or something, some bullshit like that, and then—”

His form flickers out, the space he had been occupying suddenly empty. Sasha blinks.

“And then what?” Sasha says. Silence. “For the record, I would definitely ignore it, because it would be bullshit and wouldn’t matter anyways.”

Except Taylor clearly hadn’t let it go.

There’s no response. Sasha reaches for his phone on his bedside table, and blinks again when he turns it on and it starts buzzing almost incessantly with incoming texts. They’d just finished a long roadie through Canada, and they didn’t have anything except practice later today, so the fact that the group chat is absolutely lighting up is something of a surprise.

Sasha scrolls through quickly, not bothering to try and decipher most of the texts, but he more or less gets the gist of it: some shit happened with the Capitals. Something big. Maybe Taylor did something stupid.

He rolls out of bed. Shuffles into his living room, scratching his stomach. Light slants in through the window, and Sasha squints at the sun peeking in through the blinds—it’s earlier than he thought it was. Fumbles for the remote, turns on the TV, switches it to the news—

“Oh, fuck,” Sasha says, suddenly wide awake. His stomach churns.

It wasn’t Taylor doing something stupid. Not even close. They’re playing footage: a nighttime aerial shot of a charter bus, a tipped-over semi-truck plowed into the side like a beached whale. Streetlights and ambulance strobes and spotlights from helicopters illuminate firefighters and EMTs carting out hockey player after hockey player and bundling them into ambulances.

“It looks better like this,” Taylor says, his detached, oddly clinical voice coming from somewhere over Sasha’s shoulder, and Sasha almost trips over his coffee table and goes headfirst into his TV. “Not as much blood.”

God. That’s a horrifying thought. Sasha lets out a string of foul curses, running a hand through his hair. If they had heard, all of the generations of women who came before him would have either given him an ass beating into next year or washed his mouth out with soap. Since he’s in America and they’re buried in Russia, they’ll have to settle for turning in their graves.

“I only caught about three words of whatever you just said,” Taylor says, “but yeah. That.”

Sasha looks at him—properly looks at him. Taylor looks mostly exactly like how Sasha saw him last, back in December: blond hair spiked up, red Capitals long-sleeved shirt, sweatpants from some brand Sasha doesn’t recognize, a pair of Ugg boots because apparently Taylor is a teenage girl. He’s dressed down, and he’s see-through, but other than that he looks pretty much like Sasha would expect Taylor to look, even if he wasn’t anticipating the boots.

“You’re dead,” he says, almost a question.

“I think so,” Taylor says. His voice is odd, too, echoing and faintly staticky, like he’s standing in an empty room and Sasha is hearing his voice over the phone from far away.

Clarence Taylor, dead. It doesn’t seem possible. Sits wrong. Sasha presses his mouth into a thin line to avoid admitting that, because he would never. “And you’re stuck with me.”

Taylor almost laughs. His chest expands and deflates like he’s actually breathing. Do ghosts breathe? Sasha’s nickname might be ‘Ghost,’ but somehow he doesn’t think he’s an authority on whether spirits need lungs or not. “You think that if I could be anywhere in the world, I’d be hanging out with you?”

“Nope,” Sasha says, “which means you’re definitely stuck with me.”

“Just what I always wanted,” Taylor mutters, in a way that means this is absolutely not what he wanted, in any sort of way, at all.

Sasha would agree, but that would mean agreeing with Clarence fucking Taylor, and he has absolutely no urge to do so at any costs. “You don’t have to sound so thrilled about it,” Sasha says.

“Trust me, I’m not,” Taylor says, and then he fades out of existence, like he was never there to begin with.

If Clarence Taylor simply didn’t exist, Sasha’s life would have been so much easier.

But now the guy’s dead, and Sasha doesn’t know what to think.

Washington Capitals @Capitals - Feb. 9 We’ve received word that several players have passed away, including associate captain RJ Radulov and Jean-Sebastien Fontaine. We ask that you keep their families in mind during this trying time. Stay strong.

Philadelphia Flyers @NHLFlyers - Feb. 9 Our hearts go out to our friends the @Capitals, their families, and everyone affected by the I-50E tragedy. We’re here for you. #CapsStrong

Washington Capitals @Capitals - Feb. 9 Capitals captain Clarence Taylor remains in critical condition at Pennsylvania Hospital.

#my writing #writeblr #the hockey project #arc: gongshow #char: sasha molchalin #char: clarence taylor

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noellojello · 4 years

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Should You Fight Noel’s Faves + Me?

thanks to @myrainydayloves and @silentlyfangirlingselfshipper for tagging me !!! Idk who to tag so anyone can take this post as an excuse to participate.

Russia: Absoluteky Fucking not???? He will destroy your head with one punch, you will not be okay. You will have a faucet pipe lodged so far down your windpipe it would have to be surgically removed. Also why??? He’s baby. He’s good he’s wonderful he only wants friends? He’d never wanna hurt anyone don’t do him like this

Rating: 0/10 you’ll die and also how fucking dare you

Hershel: You will stand way less of a chance than you think. This man has sword fought a man and won, sword fought multiple mummy robot things in an ancient ruin and won, he knows how to kick ass. Also he’d much prefer to settle any grievance you may have with him with a puzzle battle anyway, that’s way simpler.

Rating: 2/10 you stand more of a chance I guess but No don’t

Nahyuta: you would win but is it worth it??? There isn’t much worth fighting this man for, you can argue for like slapping him or calling him a soggy toast slice or some shit but he has been through a lot and is very compassionate don’t hurt him

Rating: 4/10 you’d make it out alive but you have nothing to gain

Napstablook: Sorry to break it to you man, but you can’t really hit a ghost.

Rating: 0/10 you literally can’t fight him also he’s baby

Vil: oh go right on ahead. He is a bitch and you could probably win, but you would not make it away unscathed. Those fake nails of his would claw out your eyes, and he will definitely grab your hair. Fights like a high school girl

Rating: 8/10 stinky man probably should be kicked

Me: Absolutely. You have every right to glock my goblin of a self and you’ll probably make it out unscathed bc I am a noodle armed raccoon

Rating: 11/10 come at me, I will lose

#noel funnypost #tag game

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my-world-travel · 4 years

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Auschwitz, Poland

The camp is free to enter, and there is a free shuttle going between Auschwitz I and Auschwitz II (Auschwitz-Birkenau). Getting to the camp is a €4 coach ride that takes about an hour. Prebook your tickets. Entry is free, but timed so as not to flood the camp with people,and the camp is often fully booked on the day of. The visitor site recommends joining a tour or hiring a guide, both of which will cost money. I did not, and did not feel like I was missing anything, but: I am Jewish. I grew up with this.

I cannot write a neutral or chipper post here. It’s not possible.

I don’t remember very much of the coach trip or waiting for our entry time except that I was so afraid I was nauseous. Large packs (A4 size, give or take) are not allowed in and have to be left at bag check, which is fine. I kept my camera on me, but photos are prohibited inside the buildings. In many places I will quibble with or outright ignore prohibitions on photos; here, I had no difficulty complying. The photos are all online if you know what to look for, and the rest is...impossible to document in a picture.

There is an area between the modern ticket entry and the famous gate, and that’s where I broke down for the first time.

I need readers to know: I don’t cry much. I don’t cry in movies or at books, it’s very rare for musicals. In my personal life, it’s highly mental health dependent (predictably), but any month where I cry more than once is unusual.

I stepped into this place and started crying.

I couldn’t explain it then and still can’t now. I went from 0 to 100 on tears in 3 seconds, then my blood pressure went through the floor and I had to sit down and struggle to breathe. It was an unconscious emotion, more powerful and primal than the ones we normally deal with, and I just had to wait it out.

And then we went through the gate and I had to force myself to step, because maybe it’s superstition and maybe it’s logic, but I had family who walked under this gate and didn’t walk out again.

At any rate, the camp is...more rattling for what it isn’t. Tired brick buildings and badly paved streets are a feature of most cities, and even the barred windows aren’t unusual. But my mom and my brother and I are descended from a couple who fled Russia in 1905; our several-greats aunt visited the area in 1938. None of the people she met survived. We still don’t know what happened to most of them. I learned very quickly that Auschwitz is an intensely personal experience, and if you bring with your own familial trauma, it will be a much harder trip. There were certainly people for whom this was an outdoor museum.

Many of the blocks are closed to visitors, but a number have been renovated and turned into exhibits. Some are very well done (one block is dedicated to the Roma and Sinti, who do not get the appropriate recognition), some are, if not well designed, powerful without that (a block with photos of the murdered, along with names, dates, and professions--when we have them, which isn’t always), a few I couldn’t go in, and some...are bad.

In 2018, Poland made it illegal to say Poles were complicit in the Holocaust. This is somewhat staggering, because without question, Poles were incredibly complicit in the Holocaust--if not as actors, then frequently as those-refusing-to-act. And at the same time, they were the racial group second targeted by Nazis, the nation to lose the highest percentage of its original population, and the nation to produce the most Righteous Among the Nations--those goyim who risked their lives to save Jews. These are not mutually exclusive statements. Rather, in 1939 Poland had a population of 35 million who spent either the next 6 years or the rest of their lives under Nazi occupation. In that sort of centrifuge, a wide range of human behavior comes to light which wasn’t previously seen--some of it good, some of it unfathomably bad.

Poles aided in Jewish liquidations, they stood by whilst the Einsatzgruppen shot their way through shtetls, and after the war, they perpetrated a pogrom which killed 42 Jews--42 humans. And in erasing their involvement, the modern Polish government continues a long and sordid history of blaming anyone-but-us for antisemitism.

There is no mention of Polish involvement in the blocks. As far as Auschwitz is concerned, Jews just turned up on trains. They never lay out how the liquidation happened. Auschwitz I was originally a Polish camp, and it’s sensible that much of the exhibits there focus on the experience of Poles--but Auschwitz II was flattened, so as a result most of the exhibits at all focus on the Poles. And the majority of the people murdered there were Jewish. (Horribly, not even Polish Jews. The largest nationality murdered at Auschwitz were Hungarians--400,000--followed by Poles--300,000 Polish Jews and 70,000 Polish goyim. The vast majority of Polish Jews died at the hands of the Einsatzgruppen.)

However, I would rather be pissed off than...whatever the other emotion was. Fear, most likely.

Everyone is going to be affected differently by the blocks. One I couldn’t go in, just sat outside and shook, but I can’t now remember which one it was. Another had, and it has taken me ages to be able to type this out, a large glass box filled with human hair. I couldn’t stay there. I ran out, I bumped into people, I’m never so rude but I--

Every person whose hair was in that box was murdered.

Block 10, the medical block, is permanently closed. That’s for the best.

Block 11, the execution block, is the least horrible, ironically. Largely because it is so familiar to any prison anywhere, and so much of it is targeted at breaking individuals. Compare the showers, which are designed at breaking masses of people, entire towns in a single day. The level of horror is different.

We were unable to go into every block. Eventually we went back towards the entrance, where there are two points of interest: The showers, and a gallows.

The showers are actually a recreation, as the originals were destroyed. They are quite bad enough as is.

The gallows marks the spot where Rudolf Höss was executed for crimes against the Polish nation as Kommandant of Auschwitz for most of the war. In general I oppose the death penalty but I admit to pleasure at the number of Nazis who were executed for their actions--a feeling only reinforced by how many of them only expressed any sort of regret at the end.

That was all in Auschwitz I. After leaving the camp, you take a free shuttle to Auschwitz II Birkenau, which is where the majority of the murders took place. The site was largely flattened by the Russians (good riddance, honestly), although there are a few standing blocks and a boxcar.

The worst thing about Birkenau is how large it is. It is a full mile from the gate to the crematoria, and the tracks run right up until the end. You could fit a mile of boxcars in here, and every one of them crammed with people. It makes certain numbers easier to process.

At the end of the tracks is a memorial to the fallen, and the remains of the crematoria. Also destroyed by Soviet tanks; I can’t regret that at all. They are dark and twisted, a fitting memorial. Standing there, you can just about see the gate.

This post is dedicated to Alter Shimshilevitz, who was murdered in Eastern Europe some time between 1939 and 1945. His older sister is my great-great grandmother.

#judaism #wwii #auschwitz #poland #holocaust tw

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thesportssoundoff · 4 years

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“The Doughy Boys headline a better than you’d figure card” UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs JDS Preview

Joey

January 20th

UFC 246 was a bit of a throw together endeavor, an attempt to get Conor McGregor on the card to start the year and using his name while he was still available and interested in fighting. In many ways, THIS was the original start of the year and it shows as this card, even with a mountain of injuries and fighters yanked, is pretty damn solid. At the top of the billing you have a solid HW fight between Curtis Blaydes and Junior Dos Santos with a damn fine co-main event pitting two massive LWs who have found consistent homes at WW with RDA vs Chiesa. The rest of the card has been picked apart due to injuries (and the Edgar yank) but there's still plenty of good with Arnold Allen vs Nik Lentz and an all action fight between Angela Hill and Hannah Cifers being trademark fights on the bill. We've even got yet another flyweight fight as Jordan Espinosa welcomes Alex Perez back down 10 lbs. The prelims are what they are but there's some intriguing prospects to keep an eye on here and the return of Sara McMann. It's not perfect but it'll do, I suppose!

2020 Stat-O-Matic:

Debuting Fighters (1-1): Tony Gravely, Nate Lewhwher, Herbert Burns, Jamahal Hill Main Event Exemption:

Short Notice Fighters (): Dequan Townsend, Angela Hill Main Event Exemption:

Second Fight (1-0): Dequan Townsend Main Event Exemption: Vs Debutantes:

Cage Corrosion (Fighters who have not fought within a year of the date of the fight) (2-0): Sara McMann, Justine Kish, Brett Johns Main Event Exemption (1-0):

Undefeated Fighters (1-1): Jamahal Hill Main Event Exemption:

Fighters with at least four fights in the UFC with 0 wins over competition still in the organization (1-1): Main Event Exemption:

Weight Class Jumpers (Fighters competing outside of the weight class of their last fight even if they’re returning BACK to their “normal weight class”) (): Nik Lentz, Alex Perez Main Event Exemption ():

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- If the rumors are true about Stipe Miocic maybe looking towards retiring due to eye injuries, does that intrigue you more as it pertains to this main event? If Stipe retires then it's fair to wonder if Cormier has any reason to stick around. Cormier is a two time LHW champ and a former HW champ and so realistically could he just convince himself that no Stipe = no reason to fight? If so then it may be worth wondering if this is a pseudo tournament fight where the winner of this fight faces the winner of Rozenstruik vs Ngannou. Does that make this fight more appealing to anybody?

2- Outside of Cain, JDS has normally done really well against wrestlers (look at Stipe's takedown numbers) and outside of Ngannou, Blaydes has normally done real well against strikers. Both guys have been wobbled in fights they eventually won (JDS vs Lewis/Tai Tuavasa, Blaydes vs Hunt) and I think it's fair to suggest that this is a pretty well put together matchup with a bit of a high lean for boredom if it becomes a Blaydes type fight.

3- On a realer note, does JDS vs Werdum still have an appeal to anybody? Feels like win or lose, that would be a logical next step for JDS?

4- A bit ago, posted a link to a sites top fighters of all time and RDA was on it quite high up. While it came off like I have an issue with RDA, I really was more surprised that he's THAT highly acclaimed. I've always assumed RDA was a bit of an overlooked commodity by fight fans but I guess I read the read at least one side of the room wrong. There's no doubt RDA has one of MMA's best resumes and what's really cool about it is that RDA is still fighting at a really high level now into his 3rd decade and with little sign that he's about to hit a wall from a fighter standpoint. He's sort of transitioned into a high level MMA kingmaker (beat him you've beaten a significant name) and if you beat him, it probably means you're going places in your division. As such this is a pretty damn important fight for Michael Chiesa who is 2-0 at WW and looks massive for the weight class. If Chiesa beats RDA then no matter how you feel about his limitations on the feet, you're looking at three wins in a row over name competition. It's a damn good fight for both guys.

5- Is Hannah Cifers the most unassuming main card fighter in UFC history?

6- Did we ever get a solution on Arnold Allen's legal issues that made him getting a visa impossible for a bit? I'm guessing we did because he fought in Vegas last time but it feels like this is going to continue to linger over his head otherwise.

7- Is Alex Perez fighting for a #1 contender fight when he takes on veteran Jordan Espinosa? Perez has one loss in the UFC and it's to Benavidez in Joseph's first finish in over four years. Perez rebounded to get a win and it's worth remembering that he's probably the most talented fighter outside of the Formiga/Benavidez/Figueredo trilogy at the top of the division. He may not be too far off with a win.

8- Herbert Burns is the younger wilder unrefined version of his brother Gilbert but that's led to some pretty exciting performances outside of the UFC. On the Contender's Series, he didn't look great prior to turning the tables around and subbing a guy off his back to earn his contract. I don't know if he has Gilbert's upside but his fights figure to be plenty exciting in the UFC. He faces fellow debutante Nate Landwehr who has been dominating M-1 out in Russia.

9- Montel Jackson is a tough fighter to wrap your head around at this point. He's very much a raw but talented underdeveloped talent who is essentially getting on the job training in the UFC. He doesn't always have a plan of attack to make good on his many physical tools and he's one of the many prospects in the UFC currently who is very clearly in need of MMA slowing down for him in order for him to utilize his length, reach, wrestling and striking chops. He draws Felipe Corrales who is a solid dependable fighter out of Brazil and while I'd say "Montel should win this one", it's hard to say that definitively given how raw Jackson is. He's got tools to really make noise.

10- Brett Johns being back is a good thing for 135 lbs. He's coming off two rough losses and took a year off I suppose to recharge and refocus. Really interesting to see how he looks against quality regional vet Tony Graveley who gets in via the Contenders Series.

11- Bevon Lewis has been such a bust in the UFC but I'm not giving up hope just yet! He draws DeQuan Townsend on the prelims in a fight he pretty much HAS to win.

12- It wasn't all that long ago that Sara McMann was still considered a potential title challenger to be. McMann has always had all of the tools (including a really good striking base) but has lacked that added quality to get people over the hump with losses to the likes of Meisha Tate and Ketlein Veira where she pretty much snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. She's been out of the scene starting a family but returns to the mix with a fight against Lina Lansberg who she should in theory have a significant edge over in just about every department.

#MMA #UFC

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karadin · 4 years

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Trump is suing his own bankers and accountants and counting on the Supreme Court to save him.

Three different committees of Congress, as well as New York State prosecutors, have issued subpoenas to President Donald Trump’s accountants and bankers for his tax and business records. Trump has sued to stop the accountants and bankers from complying.

He has lost twice at the district-court level and twice at the appeals-court level. Now he is looking to the conservative majority on the Supreme Court to rescue him.

On March 31, the court will hear oral arguments in the cases of Trump v. Mazars and Trump v. Deutsche Bank. The decision will be rendered sometime between then and the court’s summer break.

Although Trump is suing his accountants and his bankers as a private citizen, his case has been joined by the Department of Justice. (another way in which Trump is grifting, getting taxpayers to pay for hiding his money laundering and tax fraud)

Solicitor General Noel Francisco has signed an amicus brief on behalf of the United States. It is an astonishing document. It invites the Supreme Court to junk two centuries of precedent—and to substitute an entirely new system of judicial review of congressional subpoenas that involve a president.

A legislative subpoena must therefore satisfy heightened requirements when it seeks information from the President. At the threshold, the full chamber should unequivocally authorize a subpoena against the President. Moreover, the legislative purpose should be set forth with specificity. Courts should not presume that the purpose is legitimate, but instead should scrutinize it with care. And as with information protected by executive privilege, information sought from the President should be demonstrably critical to the legislative purpose. A congressional committee cannot evade these heightened requirements merely by directing the subpoena to third-party custodians, for such agents generally assume the rights and privileges of their principal, as this Court has recognized in analogous cases.

All the requirements in that above paragraph were devised for purposes of this litigation. None of them has ever been enforced—none of them has ever been imagined—in the previous 230 years of skirmishing between Congresses and presidents.

Every must and should and cannot was invented in this very brief, for the immediate legal purposes of this president in this dilemma.

The solicitor general might as well have said that subpoenas must be delivered by a sled pulled by flying reindeer, for all the connection between these demands and the previous constitutional history of the United States.

As the House of Representatives noted in the brief it filed, previous Congresses have obtained the bank records of Presidents Andrew Johnson and Jimmy Carter, and the tax records of President Richard Nixon. They have read the diaries of President Ronald Reagan and the law-firm billing records of first lady Hillary Clinton.

It’s never before been the law that a subpoena of the president must be authorized by “the full chamber,” much less that this authorization be “unequivocal”—whatever that means.

It’s never before been the law that the president’s privileges—whatever they are—also extend to his private business agents.

It’s never before been the law that the courts set themselves over Congress as scrutinizers of its subpoenas, approving or disapproving. Until now, instead, courts have always extended the utmost deference to congressional investigations, from the first Washington administration onward.

The Trump administration cannot cite case law for any of its new demands. It quotes few cases, very briefly and tangentially, and strikingly often with ellipses in the middle of the quote. Instead, it bases its argument on its own vision of the awesome and unassailable power of the presidency. “The President faces a unique risk of harassment in response to his official policies or actions,” his lawyers argue. To heighten that risk, they quote the 1952 case involving President Harry Truman’s seizure of steel plants during the Korean War: “In drama, magnitude and finality [the president’s] decisions so far overshadow any others that almost alone he fills the public eye and ear.” They continue, this time quoting the Supreme Court’s language in the Paula Jones lawsuit against President Clinton: “Likewise, the President ‘occupies a unique office with powers and responsibilities so vast and important that the public interest demands he devote his attention to his public duties.’”

The history-minded reader will recall that Truman lost the steel-seizure case, and that Clinton likewise lost his fight to be immune from civil liability for sexual harassment. Oftentimes, such effusive compliments to the office of the presidency in the language of a Supreme Court decision serve as consolation prizes for some rebuffed claim of presidential power. But Trump’s Department of Justice deploys the compliments as if they constituted the law itself, not the wrapping paper around the law.

The House brief hits back with actual precedents from pertinent law—and this bottom line: “In more than twenty cases concerning the scope of Congress’ power to investigate, this Court has only once held that a Congressional inquiry exceeded its constitutional limits.” That case—Kilbourn v. Thompson—dated from 1880 and dealt with the aftermath of the bankruptcy of a big bond house, J. Cooke and Sons. And even that case was effectively overruled in 1962. “At most,” the Supreme Court said, “Kilbourn is authority for the proposition that Congress cannot constitutionally inquire ‘into the private affairs of individuals who hold no office under the government’ when the investigation ‘could result in no valid legislation on the subject to which the inquiry referred.’” But otherwise, as the Supreme Court held in 1951, for a court “to find that a committee’s investigation has exceeded the bounds of legislative power it must be obvious that there was a usurpation of functions exclusively vested” elsewhere.

All told, the record supports the dry opening of the House brief: “Many momentous separation-of-powers disputes have come before this Court,” it reads. “This dispute, regarding four document subpoenas to third parties for records not covered by any privilege, is not one of them.”

The only thing remarkable about the Mazars and Deutsche Bank cases, the House adds, “is the extraordinary breadth of the arguments that President Trump and the Solicitor General make about the supposed power of a President to thwart investigations in furtherance of Congress’s Article I legislative and oversight functions."

By all rights, these cases should end in the kind of defeat for Trump nicely described by a favorite joke of Chief Justice John Roberts. When asked how a certain case could have been decided against a petitioner 9–0, Roberts is said to have replied: “You must remember, there are only nine justices on the Supreme Court.”

But this is the Trump era. The courts are partisan and getting more so. Although Trump lost every previous round of this litigation, one appellate judge did agree with him on the merits: his own appointee to the D.C. Circuit, Neomi Rao.

In her dissent from the majority opinion against Trump, Rao advanced an arresting new claim: “When Congress seeks information about the President’s wrongdoing, it does not matter whether the investigation also has a legislative purpose … Allegations that an impeachable official acted unlawfully must be pursued through impeachment … [and] cannot be investigated by Congress except through impeachment.”

This is wild talk that would shut down almost all congressional investigations. It asks that Congress decide whether an act was unlawful before it begins its investigation of that act. It’s an argument that cannot be applied in real life—and is probably not meant to be applied in real life beyond this one and only application: shutting down an unwanted investigation of President Trump.

Plainly, there is something in those documents that Trump dreads letting the world see. We now seem on track to one of three possible outcomes of this dispute.

The first is that precedent and law prevail. Trump loses his lawsuit against his accountants and bankers, and the subpoenaed documents are surrendered to Congress.

The second is that the political imperative to save Trump that swayed Rao will sway the conservative justices on the Supreme Court—and that Trump’s secrets will be protected by a 5–4 decision.

The third is that Trump loses—but continues to devise new delays to thwart the subpoenas and defy not only Congress but also the courts.

Every one of these possible outcomes leads to explosive controversy in the summer before the 2020 election.

In the first case, we are surely plunged into a screaming hurricane of Trump scandals.

In the second, the legitimacy of the Supreme Court will be called into doubt in a way not seen in decades, if ever.

And in the third, we confront a full-blown crisis of the rule of law.

Under all three scenarios, the issues raised by impeachment in early 2020 come roaring back for the election finale. Trump’s evident corruption, the questions over his thralldom to the Putin regime in Russia, the refusal of the Republican Party to uphold law when inconvenient to Trump—you thought we’d talked them to death during impeachment? There is so much more to come.

David Frum - Staff writer at The Atlantic

#constitution #congress #republicans #trump #trump fraud #trump russia #remove trump #trump impeachment #us supreme court

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atopearth · 4 years

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Steins;Gate 0 Part 4 - Kurisu Ending and Leskinen Ending

Kurisu Ending Although I’m not sure why there’s a Kurisu ending, I do appreciate seeing all the lab members gathered together, and then changing time lines to the future! I’ve always been curious about more of Suzuha’s life “back then”, so it’s cool to see the devastation of the future, and how everyone was doing. I like how the VA for Luka really seemed to sound a bit more masculine but still retain some feminity, but I guess the saddening thing is we can only hear it in Luka’s dying moments. It was so sad to hear him say that he finally felt like a part of the group only after he used what he learnt from Okabe to protect Mayuri and Faris from the enemies. Luka was always a part of the group! It’s saddening that he never felt that way for the whole 25 years Okabe was asleep (since his mind was broken and Daru and them needed to find his memory data they stored for Amadeus to get Okabe back). It’s also saddening that the battle for Kurisu’s time travel paper and her memories is what caused all this, but I guess it’s also because of it that they met Maho and she could recreate the PhoneWave for Okabe to change things again. Okabe saving Kurisu by releasing [Kurisu] from Amadeus huh? It’s been too long, it’s about time Kurisu’s memories and everything stopped being fiddled with I guess. Kinda sad that we didn’t get to a bit of the 3000 time leaps he had to do to get back to 2011 though, I think it would have been nice to see a bit more detail in the changes of the world and his emotions but oh well😭 We know how he feels through Luka’s death and all the rotting and dystopian feel 2036 had, so I guess it’s fine haha.

I guess with so many time leaps and everything, it was hard for Okabe to bear and think of himself as human anymore especially with the digitised memories, but at least Maho has kinda taken over Kurisu’s role to help him out with his troubles in her own way haha. It was really nice to finally see Okabe understand through his first hand experience how devastating the future is, and how he has finally picked himself up to do what he needs to do. It was cute to see him tell Suzuha to punch him so he could finally force himself to take on everything again, and as expected, it’s pretty nostalgic to see Hououin Kyoma back lol! Lmao when he started calling Maho a loli hahahaha. I love Maho’s deadpan expression towards Okabe’s weird chuunibyou “ceremony” to get himself back together, I also loved how he said El Psy Kongroo in a funny way hahaha. It’s saddening to delete Kurisu’s memory data, but it’s for the best and really unneeded since what Kurisu is will always be within them, and considering Kurisu’s personality, she’d definitely want them to delete it so that her memories wouldn’t cause wars and have so many people die.

It was obvious that Kagari would get caught, but it’s saddening to know and see more of the extent of her brainwashing. As usual, Reyes likes to ramble on about her cliche for the good of the world military antics on making intelligent and specialised AI soldiers, but I think a nice thing to see was Okabe finally vehemently denying that he would want Kurisu’s memories inside Kagari, and finally understanding that even if she has Kurisu’s memories, she can’t become Kurisu. And… I’m not sure how I feel about Reyes downloading “emptiness” (since Daru deleted the files right when she downloaded it into her brain) into her brain when she tried to put Kurisu’s memories into herself instead of Kagari last minute, I found it to be a really silly decision from her perspective.. But I did like the uplifting and more “complete” ending this time around. It was definitely nice to see the past and see a glimpse of how everyone was like (even though they were pretty much the same lol), but I think what I enjoyed most was seeing Okabe’s change in attitude by experiencing all this and then making the decision for himself to save the world and head to the world of Steins;Gate in a different way from the original. So yeah, definitely my favourite ending haha.

Back to the beginning! Not surprised Okabe wants to stop being a tester, especially when he’s starting to just think of Amadeus as the real Kurisu. But it seems everything is moving quite fast, especially with Kurisu’s mother’s house being burnt down and these dodgy people pretending to be the police collecting info etc. Well…that guy that tried to kill Leskinen, Okabe and Maho was pretty hardcore.. But anyway, Suzuha catching a cold! That is definitely something rare and nice to see, mainly because it was really heartwarming to see Mayushii, Yuki and Daru pamper her and take care of her. She’s always on guard and stressed, I guess her body can finally take a break for now lol. I felt so sad for her when she said she felt bad that she wanted to live the life of a normal girl. Suzuha really is the toughest one that has too many burdens tbh… Props to Daru for being a good dad haha.

Lmao at Maho’s first experience at the maid cafe, Faris’ language is definitely Akiba exclusive with how she makes up stories on the fly hahaha. I really liked how Okabe apologised to Amadeus Kurisu, it was really cute and nice of him to so earnestly do that. Christmas party for everyone!!~ Too bad everything gets ruined again by the changing world lines! It seems that people are catching on to the Reading Steiner thing, and it’s becoming more prominent in others too! Kinda crappy that Fubuki and them are stuck in hospital because of this Reading Steiner “disease” though, but it’s kinda weird to think about everyone having it now lol. I feel so bad for Suzuha though, she carries the heaviest burden, the future is relying on her, Mayuri and them in the future all believed in her and want her to change it all. So, it’s not weird for her to get desperate after Okabe told her that Russia is most likely experimenting with the time machine now, and that’s why the world line changed and reverted back. It’s always nice to see Suzuha and Daru bond, especially when she ended up being able to sleep peacefully for once after talking to him.

Lmao at Maho’s face when she kept losing at the crane machine, reminds me of when I try hahaha. It was so sweet that she wanted the stuffed toy because she knew it was something Kurisu held dearly in America, so she wanted to get it to give to Kurisu’s mum (because it probably got burnt along with the house), Maho is really kind and cute. The fight for Kurisu’s laptop is still up and going I guess lol, I’m surprised that she willingly gave it to Okabe, but I guess it couldn’t be helped.

Leskinen ending Maho and Leskinen went back to America and half a year just passed like that?! Okay, lmao at Maho keeping the stuffed toy (for now apparently) and snuggling it to sleep hahaha, can’t blame Amadeus Kurisu for teasing her about Okabe all the time tbh loll. I’m surprised that Leskinen really does seem to be a part of this “conspiracy” thing with Reyes… Anyway, Mayuri in her school uniform really resembles the original game art and stuff, it’s so nostalgic seeing her like that. Honestly though, hearing Mayuri talk about the Rainet Kakeru movie makes me kinda miss the story of it from the original, it was pretty detailed, it could have been an anime itself haha, if only they continued the Kakeru story here too…

Well, that was weird. Anyway, Maho discovering Leskinen and Reyes collaborating was expected, her kinda being like “brainwashed” was expected too, but I have to say, out of all the times Okabe chooses to explain everything that happened to Maho, I personally thought the time in this ending was the least…realistic? Like, oh no, she’s crying and going ballistic over it, so I should tell her everything so that she won’t do the same thing as me, it just felt so…forced? Like, if you know they’re so unstable over it, you know they would do crazy stuff over it, I honestly thought it was a bigger reason to not tell her. But okay, for the plot, he tells her, she tells Leskinen and Okabe gets captured blah blah. Honestly, Leskinen’s thoughts and stuff for being a part of Stratfor etc was a chore to listen through, just like Reyes one in Maho’s route lol. On the other hand, Maho’s breakdown was uncomfortable but understandable considering the magnitude and consequences of what she had done. However, I do feel like Maho exploding on Mayuri and telling her everything about Okabe sacrificing Kurisu to save her was “logical”, but at the same time, it felt weird. I don’t know how to put it, but the whole interaction was just weird, maybe because, once again it was all a plot device to the ending so everything the characters did “makes sense” to an extent, but it just really doesn’t feel that much like “them”. Or maybe it’s just me not liking this game loll.

Anyway, Kagari trying to kill Maho for hurting Mayuri was so refreshing tbh in this stagnant story haha. However, them skipping the whole “last fight” thing where Maho and Kagari go to save Okabe was very…interesting? It’s like they didn’t want to bother about that part even though you really have to question their capabilities etc especially when they need to save someone, but I guess even if we did get to see it, it would have been similar to the Maho ending but swapping Moeka with Kagari. Aaand then after they risk everything to save Okabe, he just thinks, well, after all this, he definitely can’t muster up any energy or fighting spirit within him to go against anything anymore and will just continue as is even though everyone is like gone and never to be seen again, including Mayuri. It’s like, this was a bad ending in both senses. Bad ending for the world, and bad ending for me because the writing, the flow of it and everything killed me because I literally took days to read it. But I guess a lot of this game is like that, it really likes to heap on unnecessary slice of life stuff that is nice, but totally neglects the plot points leading to the ending and just haphazardly slaps everything together in like a “finale”. It’s just so…boring tbh. Like, the things that happen are “understandable”, it’s just how the whole process went to getting there was just sometimes either so illogical or tedious that I just don’t “feel” it happening. Mayuri is like my favourite character and I have to admit, I hardly care about her anymore…

#steins;gate 0 #steinsgate 0

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goldenkamuyhunting · 5 years

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196. Ogata headside is changed so i think someone took care of him. Sugimoto needs money for the woman he loved for eyes operation but now he is bringing the man he hates to hospital for an eye operation.

I apologize if I put these three asks together but as they arrived one after another and seem to deal all with the same topic it seemed more fitting to handle them together. My apologies if they were asked by different people.

So... let’s tackle those interesting observations.

Yes, I’ve noticed Ogata’s side is changed.

Chap 192

Chap 196

I’m not really sure why he was moved (same as I’ve no idea why they moved whatever is that thing that is hanging on his side and that previously was hanging on the side toward Tsukishima) but being moved doesn’t necessarily mean taking care of him. Also I’ve noticed they gave him a different cover as it’s not the grey furry one he had in chap 192/193.

My point though, was more they didn’t take care of him appropriately.

The bandages here are dirty, and even back then common people knew this wasn’t good for a wound.

Noda is showing us dirty bandages for a purpose, not because he likes to colour them black.

And considering his conditions they should have called a doctor sooner, not when the Nivkh woman flatly told them her herbs couldn't save him. But well, those were other times and people wasn't given the basic human rights we are now supposed to give to... everyone who's human, really.

I’m not sure what you mean with ‘Sugimoto needs money for the woman he loved for eyes operation but now he is bringing the man he hates to hospital for an eye operation.'

Sugimoto isn’t going to pay for Ogata, Koito is, and really if Sugimoto manages to get from Koito the money for Umeko as well this will be great but Sugimoto has remarked many times he’s trying to save Ogata for Asirpa, so Asirpa won’t be a killer.

He’s not doing it for Ogata. Sugimoto cares deeply about Asirpa, to the point he prioritized asking Wilk about Asirpa instead than asking him about the gold whom he needs for Umeko and, even when presented with an easy way to get money, be it by betting or be it by getting it from Hijikata, he refused so as not to leave Asirpa on her own.

I’m not sure why this is becoming about Ogata when it’s actually all for Asirpa, and it’s great really that Sugimoto can put aside his own personal feelings in order to help her.

Letting Ogata die would only hurt Asirpa and Sugimoto would never allow that. He seriously RISKED HIS LIFE so that Asirpa won’t become a murderer. Let’s give this man credits when it’s due, he really did A LOT to protect Asirpa.

Asirpa is precious to Sugimoto, we shouldn’t forget this (and no, before someone will ask, I don’t mean it in a romantic way -_-).

Also I’m not sure if Ogata’s operation and Umeko’s should be compared.

Sugimoto needed all that money to bring Umeko in America because Umeko is losing her sight. It was probably a complex operation that couldn’t be performed in Japan... or in Russia by a random doctor. Ogata was wounded to an eye, yes, but that eye was ripped away and I don’t think the doctor is going to transplant him with another. Ogata isn’t going to go back seeing things with that wounded eye as he has it no more.

The doctor is likely only meant to fight the infection the wound had developed. He clearly isn’t one of the best doctors in the world to whom Sugimoto wants to carry Umeko so, even if back then a doctor was still expensive, I doubt Koito will end up bankrupted.

But yes, you’re right, the irony is here.

He didn’t put Toraji on a sleight to carry him to a doctor and now he’s allowing Ogata to be put to a sleight to be carried to a doctor. Umeko has an eye problem and Ogata has an eye problem. Situations completely different yet similar. It’s cruel irony all over.

Regarding the time passed from when Ogata got wounded to the time in which they decided to bring him to the hospital, I don’t know how you did your math but I can tell you how I did mine.

Chap 191 shows us the guys mourning for Kiroranke’s death, which, we know, happened not much after Ogata was wounded. The chapter moves then to Noboribetsu. As nowhere is said it’s a flashback nor there’s a grey border in the scene which points to how they happened back in a close past I take the scene in Noboribetsu happens directly after what we saw happening in Karafuto.

The light is clear which implies it’s daytime. We’ve Kikuta talking with Usami and Nikaido.

The scene continues in chap 192 with Ariko joining the group. They likely spend some more time there then Kikuta will get a massage by Toni but the background shows clearly night has fallen.

We go back to Karafuto.

As there’s no hint it’s a flashback compared to the Noboribestu scene I assume it’s merely something that happened AFTER it. Therefore, since it’s daytime I assume we are in a new day.

It could be the day just after the meeting between Kikuta Team and Usami team or more day after it but I’ll stand simple and assume it’s just the day after it.

We see Ogata was put to bed, Tsukishima too and, from the bed he tells Svetlana to leave with Gansoku, which she does. Sugimoto and Asirpa chat a bit and then chap 192 ends.

Chap 193 starts with a line from the editor that says ‘another peaceful day in Karafuto’.

It could be a hint that we are in a new day, one different from the one in which Svetlana left but it might also be a matter of translation/interpretation and, anyway, I’m never sure how much we should believe editor’s line so I won’t count this as a new day. It can be. But it can be just the continuation of the previous in which Svetlana left. We can’t tell. Let’s assume it’s the continuation of the day in which Svetlana left. We learn the story of the river monster then we go back to Noboribetsu.

Again there’s no hint whatsoever this is a flashback so I take what we see happens after what we’ve seen in Karafuto.

It’s daytime. Kikuta will try to get info from Nikaido then will study a plan with Ariko.

It’s dark when Usami has his massage....

...and we know it’s night, later on, when Kikuta starts hunting Toni. The toni hunts continues in chap 194 where Ariko manages to have Toni be buried by a snowslide.

Chap 195 has us being back in Karafuto. We might think it’s the day just after Toni was duried. Sugimoto buys a fish hat and then he decides to call for a doctor and forces the doctor at gunpoint to come with him to see Ogata.

Back to Noboribetsuwe go and again there’s no hint this is a flashback.

However Usami gives us a precise information.

After Ariko has left to hunt Toni he never came back and he has been missing for 4 days.

So this is not just the day after Ariko had Toni be buried by a snowslide, this is the 4th day after it.

And then to Karafuto we go, again without signs it’s a flashback, and we see the continuation of the previous scene, the doctor visiting Tsukishima and, from the dialogue, we can clearly guess this is the first time the two meet.

In short Sugimoto went to call the doctor 4 days after Toni supposedly died.

So let’s do again the math.

Day 0: Ogata got wounded, Kiro died, Kikuta and Ariko meet Nikaido and Usami

1 day after (might be more actually but I don’t think so): Svetlana leaves.

Might be in the same day as Svetlana left (or might be not we don’t know): Story of the monster at the river and Toni hunt.

4 days after: Ariko and Kikuta meet and Sugimoto calls a doctor.

So before calling a doctor for Tsukishima and Ogatathey let at least 5 days go by from the day they got wounded. It could be more but, on this, I can’t be sure.

Of course you might decide to see the whole Noboribetsu as a flashback even if nothing says it is... or the whole happening to Karafuto as a flashback even if nothing says it is. It’s a matter of interpretation and how you interpret Golden Kamuy is up to you.

Yes, Ogata can remain perfectly still to the point Vasily thought he was just a corpse put there for the show. Everyone can do it. But he was poisoned and had his eye removed. Honestly I think if he’s normal he should legittimately be in a poor shape.

After all Tanigaki went through a similar experience and spent a lot of time bedridden.

Ogata seems to have it worse but we know the amount of poison in the arrows can wary and Asirpa’s was pretty deadly, clearly more than the one used for the amappo.

(with Asirpa’s arrow a bear would die in 10 steps and a man won’t manage to make one, in fact, Ogata falls immediately after... the amappo that hit Tanigaki instead was meant to catch river otter and its poison, although deadly would slowly kill their victim, in fact Tanigaki doesn’t immediately fall but manages to stand for some minutes and even untie Asirpa before falling).

So really, although Ogata can fake being a corpse, I don’t really think he’s just faking being in a shape so bad that, according to the Nivkh woman, he couldn’t be saved by their herbs.

Ogata is in bad conditions. If he doesn’t feel like warning everyone when he’s awake that’s his problem but doesn’t improve his conditions.

The idea the guy putting Ogata on the sledge...

...could be Enoka's grandfather is interesting and I considered it because the guy is usually in charge of the sledges but Enonoka’s grandfather so far had always worn the same clothes and, especially the hat (Enonoka’s grandfather wears Karafuto Ainu clothes and hat which is pretty characteristic) and those don’t match with the ones of the guy putting Ogata on the sledge (Enonoka’s grandfather is the man with the white bear. You can check in various other scenes and his coat and hat don’t match at all with the ones of that guy).

Enonoka’s grandfather doesn’t need a disguise so I see no reason for him to suddently change his attire.So, unless Noda draw him in the wrong way, I doubt it’s him and I’ll opt for the doctor.

Regarding the doctor’s conclusion I think the doctor had already given a preliminary check to Ogata as the bandages now look clean.

I don’t have a degree in medicine but I would say that, just by hearing he was poisoned and his eye cut away and he was at risk for an infection (if the infection hadn’t already happened) with people who’re definitely not his friends believing he can die, a doctor would guess Ogata would need surgery and that it would be better to move him in a more hygienic environment.

Especially if he was an Army doctor used to have to make quick judgements.

Nowadays we’ve a beautiful system who allows us to make a lot of exams and judge what exactly one needs but, back then, they weren’t that lucky.

Besides, as no one is objecting on the surgery (just on where it should take place), I think they more or less expected it.

The really weird thing here is that the doctor previously wanted to send them away because his hospital was full and now he has decided to bring them there instead than just doing a rushed job and who cares if Ogata dies, whose Japanese soldiers can’t go protest with the authorities if he did a messy job.

But well, we’l find out more in the future, I’m sure.

Thank you for your asks and sorry if I wasn’t clear enough in my ramblings! I hope now I've explained myself better!

#Golden Kamuy #Ogata Hyakunosuke #Sugimoto Saichi #Koito Otonoshin #Ask #Kenmochi Umeko

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michaelnguyendotme · 1 year

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musikat18 · 5 years

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Ray’s Historical Costumes Rated: Season 1

Because what the fuck else am I gonna do today? At the end of the season, I’ll average the scores. All keyboardsmash numbers will be treated as a 10.

Season 2 will come tomorrow because HOLY SHIT these costumes come FEW AND FAR BETWEEN FOR A GODDAMN TIME TRAVEL SHOW

Screencaps are taken by me!

104 (Janitor)

3/10: I mean he’s always cute but there’s nothing much put into this look. Which I guess is the point but with the other looks this season and beyond it knocks this one down a peg. We Love Santiation Workers Though, he gets extra points for the mop.

104 (Ballet)

8/10: Every white boy has a basic suit, and Ray is no exception, But! He gets bonus points for the bow tie and for just being so pretty all spiffed up. Would definitely trust this man he is most definitely not a spy at all.

104 (The Science Room)

0/10: Sir you’re breaking into a nuclear facility in Soviet Russia could your fancy time ship not even spare a lab coat? (No shade to Gideon, who is a queen and we love her Rip is just dumb.) This is not a costume, this is a blazer over a t-shirt. Only stopped from dipping into negative numbers from the fact that this scene confirms He Is Boy Scout.

105 (Prison Jumpsuit)

6/10: Get This Puppy Out Of Prison. At least he has that jacket to keep him warm. I gave this look 2 extra points b/c of excellent juxtaposition between Gulag Jumpsuit and The Babey Wearing It Look At How Clean And Soft He Is.

105 (Torture Variant)

This one gets no ranking, it’s just an excuse for me to have a shirtless Ray cap here while also reminding everyone that he sacrificed his safety and almost his life for Mick Rory, as he will continue to do for the rest of the team because he loves them, carry on.

108 (Move-In Day)

8/10: It’s standard 50′s aesthetic but WOW AFTER A THREE EPISODE DRY SPELL, LOOK AT OUR BOY? THAT CARDIGAN? THAT EXTRA-NEAT HAIR? WHAT A SPIFFY MANS I’D SHARE A MILKSHAKE WITH HIM.

108 (Patient Scrubs)

4/10: It’s about as stale and bland as it gets but it gets the job done.

108 (Move-Out, With and Without Jacket)

10/10: It’s 50′s but better? Look at that man. Tie? Yes. That shade of blue? Looks heckin good on him. The rolled-up sleeves? End me holy shit. And with the coat and gloves? DAMN I’M WEAK TAKE A WALK IN THE SNOW WITH ME AS WE BOTH GROW UNSURE IF OUR CHEEKS ARE FLUSHED FROM THE COLD OR EACH OTHER

109 (Oh No We’re Stranded What Now)

4/10: Aaaaaaaaaand he immediately dove back into The Most Basic Look Ever. Ray I believed in you.

109 (Professor Palmer)

9/10: Goddamn I know nothing about physics but I wish I did???? Look at that dorky professor suit I’m love????? Also look at those glasses?????? Clark Kent Who???? Clark Kent Him *is shot* Also still looks good without the glasses when he throws The Sweetest Picnic Ever for Kendra, An Actual Princess.

111 (Sheriff Palmer)

124345981624/10: WOW HOLY SHIT THIS IS PEAK HISTORICAL COSTUME!!!! I HAVE NO IDEA IF IT’S ACCURATE OR ANYTHING BUT GODDAMN LOOK AT HIM!!!!!!!! THAT CRISP SHIRT THAT BOLD TIE THAT JAWLINE THAT BADGE BE STILL MY FUCKIN HEART i mean like yeah fuck the police but also FUCK THE POLICE

112 (Past Ray)

6/10: You know what? This is just Ray from the past but I’ll count him. He loses two points for not technically being historical, but he clearly knows what colors work for him and also I’m going to wrap him in a blanket and keep him safe forever now thank you.

113 (Hiding Under The Radar)

3/10: The green is a bold new choice, but other than that, this is the most drab Hiding Amongst A Secret Resistance Outfit I’ve ever seen. Maybe throw in a ragged-chic knit scarf or something.

114 (Flashback)

2/10: This is still technically the past. As You Can See, I Am Grasping At Straws. The plaid shirt is very farm boy but Ray you’re the owner of a multibillion-dollar tech conglomerate. I get you’re off the clock. But that’s just not your best look, in this setting or even on a farm.

Rest of the season? Absolutely fuckin nothing. So let’s average it out...

Season Average: 5.6/10

Series Average: 5.6/10

#musikat speaks #kat rates ray's costumes #dumbass brigade #shrinky puppy #long post

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singtheskyandfightlikehell · 5 years

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Eurovision 2019 Opinions

Well, the 26 countries that will be participating in the final are official now, so here’s my in depth thoughts about each entry, ranked from least favorite to favorite along with explanations and a 10 pt rating system. honestly i thought this year was solidly mediocre. a few i really like, about 3 i can’t stand, and the rest are all smack dab in the middle of “decent”. of course, these are just my opinions and I totally get that people will disagree with them. i don’t really care. yeah there’s a few i’ll judge you for, but frankly my opinion shouldn’t matter to you. i’m just posting it for my own record and for anyone who might be curious

26. Slovenia (0/10) I know a lot of people like this entry, but frankly, I cannot stand it. It’s boring. It’s awkward. It’s uncomfortable. If I wanted to watch an m/f couple - or, you know what, any couple - stand really close to each other and mumble for three minutes, I - I don’t actually know where I’d go, because I can’t conceptualize myself ever wanting to see that.

25. Denmark (0/10) Again, why? This entry annoys me a lot, and the only reason I didn’t put it last was because I appreciate the use of more than one language. It’s my least favorite parts of all kids shows combined coupled with a message that honestly I disagree with. It feels a bit like she’s judging me for being upset at injustice in the world when I should just shut up and be happy about what I have. I’m sorry, but I don’t believe it’s acceptable to ignore atrocities just because my life is filled with good things. I could imagine this song being the welcoming number in a musical staged in one of those “everything is perfect on the outside but inside it’s the creepiest shit you’ve ever seen” towns that’s used to hypnotize the protagonist into not noticing the creepy shit

24. Estonia (1/10) I don’t honestly dislike this song, but it does bore me. He’s a mediocre singer with a mediocre song. Also I can’t get past the fact that he rhymes “this” with “this”. It distracts me and ruins the whole thing.

23. Czech Republic (2/10) I really didn’t like this one at first. It was irritating and the lyrics were weird. However, I surprisingly enjoyed the live performance. The lead singer has some charisma on stage. Good for him.

22. San Marino (3/10) No idea how he got to the final (I know it’s bc he’s a meme, but still), but I don’t hate the song. I don’t think it should win, but honestly, I think it’s fun. His voice is ridiculous, but I can stand it for three minutes.

21. UK (4/10) I definitely feel like this is the kind of generic song I’ve heard many times before, but he does a good job with it, and ultimately it’s alright. His hair makes me think of Finn Shelby from Peaky Blinders, but that’s neither here nor there.

20. North Macedonia (4/10) Honestly, I feel like I should like this song more than I do. She has a good voice, and the song has a good message. Unfortunately, it’s just never clicked with me, and I often find myself tuning out while listening to it.

19. Israel (5/10) I like his voice. He sells the emotion. Not a gripping song, by any means, but not bad. Some of the rhymes feel a little forced, like the lyrics were written specifically so that they would rhyme, rather than because they have meaning.

18. Germany (5/10) This one gets stuck in my head sometimes, but I’m okay with that. Tbh, I quite like it. Plus, the whole “sisters (but I’d say girls in general) are taught to tear each other down but need to build each other up instead” theme is one I wholeheartedly support. I spent too many years hating everything associated with girls because society told me to.

17. Malta (5/10) I go back and forth on this one a lot. Parts of it I like, parts of it I don’t. It feels a bit different to me, but not like, in a revolutionary way. The singer is strong, and it definitely gets the award for most colorful performance, literally!

16. Serbia (5/10) I feel like I’ve heard this entry before, too, but specifically at Eurovision. Still, she does a good job with it, and I like her armor-inspired jewelry. Plus, it’s not in English!

15. Belarus (5/10) Another one I go back and forth on. I find this is very good study music - energetic and repetitive enough not to be distracting. I don’t love it (I’m even hesitant to say I like it lmao), but people really ought to stop hating on her so much. She’s sixteen. Let her have her fun.

14. Albania (6/10) I really liked Albania’s entry this year tbh. I didn’t feel she sang as strong in the semi-final as she did in the music video, but otherwise I thought it was a very powerful song. The staging was pretty cool, too!

13. Azerbaijan (6/10) I loved everything about this except the refrain. The “shut up about it” bit starts to get on my nerves by about the second refrain. But the verses sounded cool and the staging was awesome!

12. Sweden (6/10) Not the most exciting song in the world, but he sounds good, the ladies sound great, and there’s nothing I dislike about the song or staging.

11. Cyprus (6/10) Not as good as the music video, sadly, but still catchy and fun. I didn’t really like it the first time I heard it, but it’s grown on me since. I felt bad for her being put on the spot with that one “are you mad about Cyprus losing last year” question.

10. Greece (6/10) Definitely grew on me. I tuned out of it the first time I heard it. Prior to the semi finals I thought it was alright. But she really gave us the lesbian dream, huh? Ladies with neat clothes and swords, plus a garden? What more can you ask for lmao

9. France (7/10) Feels kinda standard to me, but not in the worst way possible. Sometimes I get really into it, other times it’s just a nice song. I’ve been liking it a little bit more each time I hear it, though.

8. Netherlands (7/10) The favorite to win, and I’d be okay if it did. Not my favorite this year, but a solidly good song. I have to be in the right mood to want to listen to it, but when I am? Fucking amazing. Also, considering he never left the piano (and didn’t light it on fire), he gave a pretty good performance.

7. Spain (8/10) This song is so much fun, and it’s definitely going to end the competition on a high note. I’m also really curious to see the full version to know more about the life-size dollhouse and animatronic thing they’ve got going

6. Switzerland (8/10) I loved the music video more than the live performance, but regardless I thought this song was also really fun and, idk, snazzy? Love dancing to it while I fold laundry.

5. Australia (9/10) Australia’s staging was everything! I had them in the upper middle rankings until the semi-final, but honestly that looked cool as all fuck!! Her song is weird, but in a way that I can dig. Plus seeing her soar around like Glinda in space with two fellow witches is one of the highlights of Eurovision this year

4. Russia (10/10) Sergey is back and just like in 2016, I absolutely love him and his performance. I’ll admit, the shower thing was a bit weird, but the song sounded great live! Plus, he had a leg-up for me by going with fairy tale imagery in the music video.

3. Norway (10/10) Initially, I only liked the joiking. The other two singers have grown on me, though. This song is fun, the staging is cool, the singers are great, and then it gets quiet and the joik part comes in, and it’s so fucking cool!! Love it, love it, love it!

2. Italy (10/10) My favorite for a long time, only bumped out because I made the fortuitous mistake of watching Iceland’s interviews. I love the song. I love the message. The thing that impressed me most, though, was that this song is about something that isn’t even remotely close to anything that’s happened in my life. I do not relate to it at all. But despite having no personal connection to the topic, I could feel the emotion in it. For a brief three minutes, I could feel something that isn’t my reality but is the reality of many other people. And an artist who can do that is powerful indeed.

1. Iceland (10/10) If you couldn’t tell from the everything about my blog, I have firmly joined the camp of Hatari stans. It may surprise you, but I didn’t really like this song the first time I heard it. Then, I found out the meaning behind it and gave it another chance. Lo and behold, I liked it! It rose in my rankings from lower-middle to the number one spot between listening to it multiple times and watching all the Hatari content I could get my hands on. I totally understand the music being too far for some people, but as a metalhead during the not-Eurovision parts of the year, Hatari isn’t too far of a leap for me. I love the song. I love the staging. I love the costumes. I love the message. I love the band. I love how they interact with each other and everyone else. I love the bits on Iceland Music News. I love their trolling and sarcasm in the interviews. I love the anti-capitalism. I love their websites (seriously, check them out. they put a lot of effort into them). I love the way they approach issues that are important to them. I love the fact that they aren’t afraid of the tough subjects. I especially love that they aren’t trying to walk the popularity line (you see it all the time - for example, queerbaiting, where a tv show wants to appeal to all sides of an issue, so they make characters nearly lgbtqia+ but then throw in enough straightness to please conservatives). Hatari picks their side in each issue instead of trying to cater to everyone, and I respect that a lot. My reactions and emotions aren’t usually prominent or even necessarily visible, but there’s a chance I might actually cheer if they win.

Finally, the honorable mentions, aka countries that didn’t make it to the final but that I would’ve loved to see:

Hungary (in my original top 10) - loved him last time, loved him this time. Beautiful song, beautiful voice, beautiful staging

Georgia - my hopes weren’t high but that doesn’t mean I didn’t love it. There’s nothing quite like a good dramatic song, and this was as dramatic as they come

Portugal/Poland - the two most people were really miffed about in the first semi-final; I think they’d’ve been alright in the semi-final, but both depend entirely on my mood. sometimes I love, sometimes I hate

Croatia - the song was ‘meh’, the singer was fantastic, and the staging was Eurovision in all the right ways

Armenia - one of my early favorites. could’ve used some other people on stage, but otherwise I thought she did wonderfully

Romania - what can I say that hasn’t been said already? she brought everything! that was an experience and an amazing one at that. so disappointed she didn’t make it

and of course,

Ukraine - catchy, badass, wacky, and wlw? sign me the fuck up. So sad to hear what happened to her. I know people are saying this is why politics should be kept out of music, but that’s ridiculous. The real issue is when the issue/message isn’t coming from the artist. It should always be up to the artist’s discretion what they do or do not promote. Propaganda and censorship go hand in hand, which is why I am so bothered by the blanket statements I hear thrown around about Ukraine’s fiasco this year

And that’s all! I think I’ll be happy with anyone scoring a 7 or higher for me winning on Saturday. I wouldn’t be upset about a 6 winning either, I suppose.

Anyways, off to bed so I can make my snacks tomorrow lmao!

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tkatsumi06j · 5 years

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THREAD: Today Abe Shinzo is coming to Moscow seeking solution to a territorial dispute with Russia over Kurili islands. But expect no miracles. Putin is unlikely to move an inch, and the main reason why he's playing with Abe is desire to wreck US-Japan alliance. Here is why: 1/

1/ 連投スレッド: 今日、ロシアとの領土紛争を抱える日本の安倍晋三が、北方領土問題の打開を探るべくモスクワを訪問する。だが奇跡は起こらない。プーチンは一歩も譲らないだろうし、彼が安倍を手の平で転がす最大の動機は日米同盟を破壊することにあるからだ。理由を以下に述べる。

2/ Resolution of territorial dispute with Russia and detente with the Kremlin is one of Abe's major foreign policy priorities. Despite crisis in Russia's relations with the West since 2014, Abe has met Putin 24 times, this will be the 25th summit.

2/ ロシアとの領土問題の解決と緊張緩和を図ることは安倍の最重要外交課題の一つでもある。2014年以後、ロシアと西側との関係は危機的状況を迎えているが、安倍はプーチンとじつに24回もの会談を重ねてきた。今回で25回目の首脳会談となる。

3/ Policy of engaging Russia is pushed personally by Abe. His main goals include: 1) secure a place in history if he succeeds; 2) finish an endeavor his father started as Japanese FM; 3) push Russia away from China's embrace.

3/ ロシア外交は安倍の個人的な野心によって推進されている。その主な動機は、①成功して歴史に名を残すこと、②安倍の父親が日本の外相として始めたことをかわりに成し遂げること、そして③中国による抱き込みからロシアを引き剥がすことにある。

4/ Abe has pushed for economic engagement of Russia to create a positive momentum for talks. After a meeting in Singapore last November, Abe made another step: Tokyo wants to sign a peace treaty, then get back 2 small islands, putting off debate about 2 larger islands into future

4/ 安倍は対話に向けたポジティブなモメンタムを醸成すべくロシアとの経済的取組みを強化しようとした。昨年11月のシンガポール会談で安倍は、これを更に一歩深め、平和条約の締結と小さな二島の返還を求める姿勢を表明し、残りの大きな二島の返還については将来の協議に先送りにするという選択を取った。

5/ This is what Abe is selling at home: we give Russia a piece of paper (peace treaty), get the 2 islands now, which is max we can realistically get, and continue to claim 2 larger islands which allows Tokyo not to lose face. Upsides: 2 small islands plus wedge between China and Russia

5/ 安倍は国内向けにこう喧伝した。ロシアには平和条約という紙切れ一枚を約束して二島を奪還する。それが最も現実的かつ最大限可能なことであると。そうすれば残りの二島についても領有権を主張し続けることができ面目を保てると。メリットは、2つの小島と中露間に楔を打ち込むことができるという建てつけだった。

6/ Abe's problem: Russia has 0 incentives to follow this path, and Moscow clearly knows that. Key question for the Kremlin is: what is Russia getting for accepting this deal, and what are the downsides? Let's address the downsides first.

6/ 安倍の問題点は、ロシアがこの方向を受け入れることの旨味がゼロでモスクワがそれを熟知していることだ。クレムリンにとっての最大の関心はこの合意を受け入れることによる損得だ。何が得られ、何が失われるのか。では、まずは失われるものから挙げてみよう。

7/ Habomai and Shikotan have a strategic to Russia: sovereignty over the 2 islands supports Moscow's de-facto control over Sea of Okhotsk (and Vilyuchinsk, the main base of Russian subs in the Pacific, is very close). This is why the Russian military is against any transfer.

7/ ロシアにとっては歯舞と色丹には戦略的価値がある。二島に対する主権が及ぶことで、モスクワはオホーツク海の制海権をほぼ手中に収めている（更にヴィリュチンスクという太平洋に展開する戦略原潜の要衝が近接している）。ロシア軍が二島の返還に反対する理由がここにある。

8/ There is a strong consensus in the Russian public against any transfer of territories to Japan. According to polls by @levada_ru, over 70% of Russians are opposed to it for the last 27 years (now this number stands at 78%, with just 14% supportive) https://www.levada.ru/en/2018/12/07/the-kuril-islands/?

8/ ロシアの世論には、日本に対するいかなる領土の引き渡しも反対するという強いコンセンサスが存在する。民間調査会社レヴァーダの調査によると、少なくとも過去27年間のあいだ70％以上のロシア人が反対し続けている（現在は78%となっており、賛成はわずか14%となっている）[訳注: 下記の実際の結果を確認すると「賛成」(Would likely to support it)は17%]）。

9/ Putin's approval rating is down following unpopular pensions reform. Far-left @s_udaltsov and far-right @strelkov_i_i joined forces this Sunday to protest "surrender of Kurili." Even @navalny jumps on the topic:

9/ プーチンの支持率は年金改革の不評を受けて下落している。20日日曜には極左のセルゲイ・ウダルツォフと極右のイーゴリ・ストレルコフが結託して「北方領土引き渡し」に反対する抗議集会が開かれた。あのアレクセイ・ナワリヌイですらこの問題に飛びつき非難している有様だ。

https://twitter.com/navalnylive/status/1065657222829694977?s=21

10/ Against this background, the Kremlin needs a really substantive prize to challenge public consensus on Kurili islands. What could Japan possibly offer that's of value? Tokyo's answer is: Peace Treaty, investment, alternative to China in Asia. Let's dissect all 3.

10/ このような背景がある中では、クレムリンは相当に実体の伴った見返りがなくては北方領土に対する世論にとても太刀打ちできない。しかし一体日本に何を見込むことができるだろうか。日本政府は「平和条約、投資、アジアにおける中国の代替」を売り込む。この三つに順に斬り込んでみよう。

11/ Russian officials know, that a Peace Treaty is just a piece of paper and has no practical meaning. Russia and Japan have survived without this document over 70 years, and the relationship was normal by any standards: visits of heads of states, trade, investment, tourism etc.

11/ ロシア政府の人間は、平和条約がただの紙切れであり実質的な意味は何もないことを熟知している。日露関係は70年間その存在なしで存続してきたのであり、その関係は、例えば両首脳による国家訪問、さらに貿易、投資、観光など、どの基準に照らしても「正常」なものであったのだということを。

12/ Japan's investment to Russia since 2014 is scant despite Abe's best efforts (stock is $1.5b by JETRO count). Combination of volatile commodity prices, challenging legal environment, weak economic growth, corruption and Western sanctions is to blame. https://www.jetro.go.jp/en/reports/statistics/ …

12/ 安倍の積極性とは裏腹に2014年以後の日本の対露投資額は微々たるものである (JETROの統計でも株式投資額は15億ドル程度でしかない）。これは、不安定な物価や法的環境の不備、低調な経済成長、腐敗や汚職、そして西側による経済制裁等の組合せによって生じる複合的要因によるものだ。

13/ Peace Treaty with Japan and even transfer of islands won't make Japanese CEOs to change their minds about Russia. The reverse is also true: major JAP investment to RU (Sakhalin-2, Toyota etc.) happened in despite absence of a Peace Treaty, and were driven by commercial logic

13/ 日本との平和条約締結も、北方領土の引き渡しすらも、日本の経営者たちにロシアに対する戦略転換を求めるものにはならない。その逆もまた然りである。即ち、大型の対露投資（『サハリン2』やトヨタの投資等）は平和条約なしでも実現した。それを牽引したのは市場原理である。

14/ Russia's problem with Abe is: unlike Xi Jinping, who helped secure CN investment and loans to sanctioned companies of Putin's friends, the Japanese PM can't pick up a phone and tell CEO of JBIC or Mitsui to give money to Rottenberg. The Kremlin tried, but failed.

14/ 安倍に対するロシアの不満は、安倍には、制裁対象であるプーチンの手駒企業に巨額の投資や融資を行った習近平のように電話一本でJBICや三井のトップにローテンベルクに融資しろと言える強みがないことだ。クレムリンは実際にこれを試してみたのだが、実現しなかった。

15/ No matter how much Abe's concessions look fresh domestically compared to Japan's stubborn, old school approach to territorial dispute. For Moscow there is nothing of real value there, and now people in the Kremlin know it well.

15/ 領土問題に対する頑迷で古臭い対露強硬アプローチに比較して、安倍が提案する譲歩案がいかに国内向けに新鮮なものに映っても、モスクワにとってはそこに実際的な価値はなく、クレムリンの人間はこれを熟知している。

16/ Signs of the Kremlin's frustration were very visible in 2018. Russia has replaced the key interlocutor on trade&investment talks: the new head of intergovernmental commission Max Oreshkin, a minister, is a lightweight compared to his predecessor Igor Shuvalov, 1st deputy PM.

16/ 2018年、こうしたクレムリン側の不満は顕著に表れた。前任の第一副首相のイゴール・シュハロフに比べれば格下といえるマクシム・オレシュキン経済��展相を日露通商投資交渉を担当する政府間委員会の代表に据えた。

17/ This explains Moscow's hard-nose approach to current negotiations, manifested in @mfa_russia's Lavrov comments after meeting with @konotaromp. http://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/3472147?

17/ この点からも、現在の交渉におけるロシア側の強硬姿勢が読み解ける。日本の河野太郎外相との会談直後にラブロフ外相が発表したコメントにも、これが顕著に表れている。

18/ Lavrov: "Russia's first condition is full recognition by Japan of the outcome of WWII, including Russian sovereignty over all the islands of the South Kuril Ridge." = Even if Russia transfers 2 smaller islands, the 2 big islands will remain with legal recognition.

18/ ラブロフ外相：「ロシア側の第一条件は、日本が第二次世界大戦の結果を完全に認めることにある。これには、南クリル諸島の全ての島にロシアの主権が及ぶことも含まれる」イコール、仮にロシアが二島の小島を引き渡したとしても、残りの二島の主権はロシアにあり、日本は法的にこれを認めることになる。

(参考) 2019.01.14付ロシア外務省セルゲイ・ラブロフ外務大臣と日本の河野太郎外務大臣による会談後に行われたラブロフ外務大臣による冒頭発言と質疑応答於・モスクワ（関連部分の抜粋と仮訳）

19/ Obviously, even the first precondition is a non-starter for the Japanese public. Russia doubles down and puts more demands on the table, without stating them officially: 1) no U.S. troops on Shikotan and Habomai; 2) reverse of Tokyo's approach welcoming U.S. missile defense

19/ 日本国民からすれば明らかに、最初の前提からして到底受け入れられないだろう。ロシアはこれに輪をかけて（但し公式に表明することなく）更なる要求を行っている。曰く、①色丹・歯舞には米軍を駐留させないこと。そして、②米ミサイル防衛 [訳注『イージス・アショア』のことだと思われる] の配備を歓迎する日本政府の姿勢を翻すこと。

20/ BOTTOM LINE: Russia has no intention to compromise on the 2 smaller islands now. If Abe gives Putin a peace treaty without the islands, Moscow will be happy to pocket it. If not - the Kremlin won't be upset as it pays no price for playing a game of diplomacy with Tokyo.

20/ 要は、ロシアには二つの小島のためにすら一切譲歩する心算がないのである。安倍が二島の返還なしで平和条約を締結したいというのなら、モスクワは喜んでその恩恵に与るだろう。締結できないとしても、ロシア側には失うものはない。日本相手の外交ゲームから生じる代償など、皆無だからだ。

21/ If the current negotiations between Moscow and Tokyo increase suspicions and distrust between Japan and the U.S. or hint on possibility of Tokyo lifting/softening G7 sanctions (highly unlikely) - this is a major price for the Kremlin, and Putin will get it for free.

21/ 仮に現在の交渉により、日米間の疑念を増大させたり、日本がG7で決定した制裁措置を止める、あるいは軽減するような素振りを少しでも見せることに繋がるのであれば（これは全くの期待薄だが）、クレムリンにとっては大変な勲章となる。プーチンはこれをタダ同然で手に入れることになる。

22/ Even if Moscow decided that 2 small islands are worth giving for improved relations with Japan in order to have more maneuvering space in Asia, poisonous combination of factors described above leaves Russia with just one option - growing dependence on China. END

22/ 仮にモスクワが日本との関係を改善しアジアでの活動スペースを確保するために二つの小島を引き渡す価値があると判断したとしても、上述した様々な要素の危険な組合せにより、ロシアには、中国により強く依存するという選択肢しか残されなくなる。

以上

訳者あとがき

本論考の和訳では、特定の場合（公人の発言等）を除き、ガブエフ氏が”Krill Islands"と表記したものは全て日本語読者向けに「北方領土」と訳した。ラブロフ外相に「北方領土という名称を使うな」と言われた手前タブー視された表現に訳すのは憚れるかもしれないが、首尾徹底した。

一度は英語で精読したが、この論考を翻訳してみてあらためて、ガブエフ氏の論旨の明解さと確固たる根拠に裏付けられた主張に感心した。昨今のいわゆる日本で「専門家」と言われるご意見番としてTVに登場する輩からは久しく得られない感覚だった。

今回の論考でガブエフ氏が挙げた、ロシアが平和条約締結交渉に本腰を入れる必要のない理由は、大きく３つに分類される。

領土を返還ができない理由

平和条約を結ぶ旨みがない理由

経済協力すら旨みがない理由

ガブエフ氏はそれぞれの「理由」について一つずつ論拠を添えた。

１）領土返還ができない理由については、①世論の反対、②低迷する支持率、③軍の反対、④国際法上の問題を挙げ、まったく検討の余地がないことを明確に示してみせた。

２）平和条約を結ぶ旨みがない理由については、①外交・貿易・経済・観光等すでに良好であること、②形ばかりの株式投資は不十分であることを挙げ、条約を締結してもしなくてもロシア側のメリットは少ないことを示してみせた。

３）経済協力すら旨みがない理由については、①G7による経済制裁の足並みを乱すような投資は日本（安倍政権）には無理であること、②日本企業の消極的な対露投資姿勢は変わらないことを挙げ、経済協力のパッケージすらとくにロシア側は必要としていないことを示した。

最後に、「中国の代替的存在になる」＝取って代わるという日本のウリに対し、ロシア側が暗に、①色丹・歯舞には米軍を駐留させないこと、②米ミサイル防衛（イージスアショア）の展開を歓迎する日本政府の姿勢を翻すことがなければ、容易く中国に目が向くという現実を突きつける。

要は、プーチンは、日本が何をしようと満足はしないし領土は返還しない（できない）。だが、日本の譲歩の結果として日米同盟に楔を打ち込み亀裂を生じさせることができれば、それが漁夫の利であるという程度にしか考えていないということ。すなわち、日本はノーオプション状態であるということだ。

これが25回の実のない会談の実態であることが、今回の論考からあらためてよく理解できた。つまり日本としては、ロシア”領土”における共同経済開発に、ロシア側の条件で参画させてもらうのが関の山であるということだ。中国に”取って代わろう”にも、G7合意に拘束される日本は身動きがとれない。

百歩譲って、ロシア側があらゆるリスクを考慮した上で二島返還に踏み切ったとしても、日本には中国を上回るスケールメリットを提供することができない。そこまでの外交力も、財政力も、経済力も、産業力もないのである。下手をすると26回目の会談で、協議取りやめになるかもしれない。

でなければずっと生殺しである。

理性ある国家首脳ならばこれ以上の血税の無駄遣いを避ける賢明な判断を行うべきだが、ガブエフ氏が指摘したように、個人的野心、功名心の充足、対中包囲しか見据えていない安倍には、この選択肢は無いに等しいだろう。願わくば、26回目の会談前にロシア側から引導を渡して貰いたいものだ。

#日露首脳会談 #russo-Japan talks #Vladimir Putin #Shinzo Abe #kuriles #北方領土問題 #プーチン大統領 #安倍晋三 #二島返還

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thesportssoundoff · 4 years

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“What is BMF in Russian?” UFC Fight Night: Russia Preview

Joey

November 5th, 2019

So did you enjoy last week? Did ya have a good time watching this really deep MSG card with strangely exciting fights on paper? Big names? Compelling match making? Well do I have a gift for you guys! The UFC's return to Russia feels like a throwback to the early days of the UFC's Brazilian expansion. These cards will feel like glorified regional MMA shows until we hit the portion of the card where it has an almost seismic shift into a UFC card. This card is basically one of those. The first six or seven fights are for the most part a bunch of Fight Nights Global stock and then the show takes a jump upwards. The headliners are worthwhile on paper, there's a few interesting filler fights on the prelims and there's one or two fighters of note buried into the muck. It's a mid afternoon card from Russia. It's kinda bad but kinda not.

Fights: 13

Debuts: Shamil Gamzatov, Roman Kopylov, Abubkar Nurmagomedov

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 3 (Vince Pichel OUT, Roosevelt Roberts IN vs Alexander Yaklovev/JDS OUT, Greg Hardy IN vs Alexander Volkov/Gadzhimur Antigulov OUT, Khadis Ibrigmaov vs Ed Herman)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 3 (Greg Hardy, Alexander Volkov, Rustam Khabilov)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 3 (Pannie Kianzad, Davey Grant, Danny Roberts)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 5 (Ramazaan Emeev, Magomed Ankalaev, Zabit Magomedsharipov, Calvin Kattar, Magomed Ankalaev)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2017 (in the UFC): 27-12-1

Zabit Magomedsharipov- 5-0 Calvin Kattar- 4-1 Alexander Volkov- 3-1 Greg Hardy- 2-1-1 Zelim Imadaev- 0-0 Danny Roberts- 3-3 Ed Herman- 1-2 Khadis Ibrigamov- 0-1 Klidson Abreu- 1-1 Shamil Gamzatov- 0-0 Anthony Rocco Martin- 6-2 Ramazan Emeev- 3-0

Fights By Weight Class (yearly number here):

Welterweight- 3 (70) Lightweight- 2 (72) Middleweight- 2 (44) Light Heavyweight- 2 (42) Heavyweight- 1 (37) Women’s Bantamweight- 1 (19) Featherweight- 1 (56) Bantamweight- 1 (54)

Women’s Flyweight- (32) Women’s Strawweight- (28) Flyweight- (15) Women’s Featherweight- (8)

2019 Number Tracker

Debuting Fighters (38-59-1)- Shamil Gamzatov, Roman Kopylov, Abubkar Nurmagomedov

Short Notice Fighters (29-37)- Roosevelt Roberts, Greg Hardy, Khadis Ibrigamov

Second Fight (56-35)- Khadis Ibragimov, Dalcha Lungiambula, Sergey Khandozhko

Cage Corrosion (Fighters who have not fought within a year of the date of the fight) (22-38-1)- Alexander Volkov, Ramazan Emeev, Davey Grant, Jessica Rose Clark

Undefeated Fighters (41-38-2)- Roman Kopylov, Shamil Gamzatov

Fighters with at least four fights in the UFC with 0 wins over competition still in the organization (12-9)-

Weight Class Jumpers (Fighters competing outside of the weight class of their last fight even if they’re returning BACK to their “normal weight class”) (31-23)- Sergey Khandozhko, Jessica Rose-Clark, Klidson Abreu

Twelve Precious Ponderings

1- We might as well start with what is probably the "main event" for most folks. This feels sort of kind of like a cashing out on the Greg Hardy experiment. It hasn't ever been dull (or tasteful to be honest) but Greg Hardy gets the biggest step up in his UFC run when he takes on Alexander Volkov on short notice. If the UFC had long term plans for Greg Hardy, they probably wouldn't throw him in a disadvantageous situation on enemy soil with an opponent who could probably just shut him down with a jab. An old boxing promoter theory is that it's hard to get a guy started but it's really easy to cash them out. The UFC is sending Greg Hardy out for his fifth fight in 2019 and sending him from facing newbies and guys coming off losses to facing a genuine top 10 HW. This is less of a step up and more of a step into a cauldron. If he wins then they've got a new top 10 HW on their hands but if he loses then nothing's lost and the Russian market gets to have a nice pop. The house always wins.

2- Did we ever find out what forced Volkov to pull out of the Overeem fight?

3- Zabit Magomedsharipov vs Calvin Kattar is a stupendous fight on paper and also arguably the toughest test for Zabit during his short UFC run. Jeremy Stephens was a fine challenge but the sort of challenge Zabit should've been able to pass and was able to pass with relative flying colors. Kattar has had problems with guys who kick and go to the body with frequent regularity but he's also a capable well rounded fighter with a tremendous understanding of spacing and pacing. To this Zabit has either been given overly patient strikers (Sheymon Moraes) or fun brawler types (Stephens, Kyle Bochniak, Brandon Davis). Kattar isn't going to be some pressure happy striker a la Stephens but he hits hard, hits from unique angles and possesses a superb jab. He can also kick on the same level on Zabit although they throw different kind of kicks. The fact that Zabit refused to make this a five rounder leads me to believe that Zabit may be weary of the stylistic challenges Kattar presents. Also Kattar's hand speed and timing figure to give Zabit some challenges early on.

4- One thing that stands out with Calvin Kattar is that in the one fight he lost in the UFC, he sort of shut down and accepted his fate so to speak vs Moicano. We know Zabit is a fast starter so what happens if he finds himself down 2-0 in the third round?

5- We've got yet another Nurmagomedov on the scene! Abubkar Nurmagomedov comes straight from the PFL and figures to slide into the scene in the UFC's insanely busy 170 lb scene although he gets a tough fight for his debut in gritty German guy David Zawada.

6- I'm not sure who put together this Daichi Lungiambula vs Magomed Ankalaev fight but they need a stern talking to. Freakish athlete with rawness in his game vs super established grapple heavy LHW? Bad idea.

7- How excited are we for Ed Herman to make a run in this 205 lb class?

8- Anthony Rocco Martin made a stupendous run at 170 lbs but you could tell how he was viewed by the UFC as a guy relegated to prelim/spoiler role duty. He finally got the big step up vs Demian Maia and while he performed well, he still left a loser in a rather Maia-esque fashion. He's back to the role of being high level prelim spoiler/tester type. He draws Ramazan Emeev who has been gone for a minute and was building himself a nifty reputation as a low finish high violence kinda guy. This is a genuinely good fight buried on the prelims.

9- Maybe I'm just a softie but I still think Karl Roberson has a chance to really develop into something at 185 lbs. In a sense he's got SOME Jared Cannonier in him, primarily due to how the UFC rushed him. In his second fight in the company, a dude who was primarily a kickboxer was given a large clunky grappler in Cezar Mutante. After he got a bounceback win, the UFC sent him out there on short notice to take on Glover Teixeira in a really tough fight. Glover Tex did a Glover Tex-esque thing where he got hurt badly then buckled down and finished Roberson in the same fashion that Cezar did. Roberson is a tough dude to figure out and the UFC has really done him no favors. Roberson takes on debuting Roman Kopylov on the prelims.

10- Rustam Khabilov's sole job is to be the European prelim guy spot. He'll welcome Sergey Khandozhko to the lightweight division in a pretty interesting fight.

11- We feel better or worse about Jessica Rose Clark at 135 lbs than 125 lbs?

12- Roosevelt Roberts vs Alexander Yaklovev is going to be a hell of a grapplefuck type of fight.

#MMA #UFC #Russia #Hardy #Volkov #Zabit #Karl Roberson #zabit magomedsharipov #Calvin Kattar

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