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ollie-oxen-free · 7 years

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Fucking FanFiction.net, Man

Thanks to @crushingonsans for tagging me in this because hot damn if this wasn’t fun to do. mine aren’t as good, but whatever. there’s only so much a man can do :’c

Razz (SFS)

Fell (UFP)

Lust (ULS)

Pink (ULP)

Sans (UTS)

Error

Blue (USS)

Papyrus (UTP)

Stretch (USP)

Red (UFS)

Slim (SFP)

Ink

-(1) and (7) are in a happy relationship until (7) dumps (1) for (9). (1), brokenhearted, goes on one date with (11), has an unhappy breakup with (12), then follows the wise advice of (5) and finds true love with (3).

Razz and Blue are in a happy relationship until Blue dumps Razz for Stretch. Razz, brokenhearted, goes on one date with Slim, has an unhappy breakup with Ink, then follows the wise advice of Sans and finds true love with Lust.

I mean…… I don’t know man,,,,.,.,. I was excited for a split second with the rottenberry and then it fucked me over (although i do like razz/lust)

-If you wrote a Song-fic about Eight, what song would you choose?

(Papyrus)

he he

I’ve had this one for a while in all honesty.

-3 told you that she will soon be getting married to 2. What is your reaction?

(Lust, Fell)

*looks at crush and fresh’s roommate bros rp* cool

-When was the last time you read a fic about Five?

(Sans)

Hmm i mean,..,., idk man its hard to find a good fic with this character in it, he’s just so rare i mean.,.,

-6 kidnapped you, why is this?

(Error)

Hey crush, we both got kidnapped by Error, high five! also it’s probably bc im very gay, ngl

-Does anyone on your friends list consider Three hot?

(Lust)

I mean some people may be in denial about it but im pretty sure that everyone thinks that he’s hot lmfao

-If you wrote a One/Six/Twelve fic, what warning would it have?

(Razz, Error, Ink)

In all honesty if i did it would be Razz getting kidnapped by Error for being a “glitch of a glitch” so maybe kidnapping? Though it would probably involve a lot of memes and bad humor too so maybe not too much bad? Mostly just Razz being annoyed that the supposed god-like beings of the mulitverse fight and argue like little children.

-6 is extremely pissed off about something, why is this? And what will you do?

(Error)

He’s always angry so im not gonna ever grace this one with a response.

-Five/Nine or Five/Ten?

(Sans/Stretch or Sans/Red)

the second, definitely the second one, im glad at least something in this fucking nightmare is normal, jesus shit

-You and 9 get trapped in an elevator together. What happens? And who are the other random people with you two?

(Stretch)

I swear to god if i hear one more pun about elevators i will not hesitate to kill myself

-Would 2 and 6 make a good couple?

(Fell, Error)

,,,,.,.,.,.,..,,.,.no.

-8 confessed to be a part of your family.

(Papyrus)

welcome home, son

-4 and 5 are having an argument. Why is this?

(Pink, Sans)

“Stop teaching my bro how to make sexy spaghetti!”

“Well, it’s that or how to be successful in the royal harem. Which would you prefer?”

“I’m tired of finding condoms in my pasta, do whatever the hell you want.”

-Is there any such thing as One/Eight fluff?

(Razz, Papyrus)

i think i read a fic about it before once, but it was less fluff and more Paps calling Razz out for his shit or something of the like

-2 writes you a love song, plays it for you, and then kisses you on the cheek.

(Fell)

you’re drunk, go home buddy

-What would happen if Seven walked in on Two and Twelve kissing?

(Blue, Fell, Ink)

I mean i like to think that when Blue walks in on anyone kissing he immediately begins to critique their form and then rates their passion on a scale of one to ten, so take that as you will

-Do you think Four is hot?

(Pink)

yes

-7 cooked you dinner.

(Blue)

oh thank god, a night where i dont have to eat cold ravioli from a can or undercooked ramen god bless

-Suggest a title for Seven/Twelve hurt/comfort fic?

(Blue/Ink)

The Colors We Show

-9 and 1 accidentally get hooked up on a dating website and are forced to go on a date together.

(Stretch, Razz)

They both take one look at each other and then immediately run away, Razz going “to the bathroom” and Stretch jumping out of the nearest window. Blue and Slim are sitting in the bushes outside the restaurant and wondering just how their plan went this wrong.

-8 gets angry and starts cussing at 6 very loudly. 7 is watching it all and is interested…but why is this?

(Papyrus, Error, Blue)

Papyrus is cussing. End of story.

-Do you recall any fics about 9?

(Stretch)

*looks at the huge fucking pile about Stretch being a creepy fucker* yea, im aware of a few of them

-You are about to do something that will make you feel very embarrassed. Will 9 comfort you?

(Stretch)

this bitch would encourage me to do it, honestly

-Does anyone on your friends list read 3?

(Lust)

i mean, we all have our guilty pleasures. Read: of fucking course.

-Would anyone one of your friends list write about Two/Four/Five?

(Fell, Pink, Sans)

i have never seen this and thinking about it gives me a headache. Maybe Galli would? They’re all about rarepairs (and they’re also really great too so go check them out)

-You’re lying on the beach peacefully, and then you turn your head to see 1, 2, and 9, by the water wearing speedos.

(Razz, Fell, Stretch)

*discreetly pulls out my phone and takes a picture*

-It’s storming outside and 4 allowed you to stay with her at her place until it blows over. And your reaction to this kind gesture is?

(Lust)

Put your dick back in your pants I’m walking home in this fucking tornado, bitch.

-Have you read a 6 / 11 fanfic before?

(Error, Slim)

No, and i never want to

-5 wakes you up in the middle of the night.

(Sans)

go the fuck to sleep you bitch, i hate you and your fucking off-kilter sleeping habits

-1 asks to talk to you privately. When you are both alone, he admits to you that he is gay.

(Razz)

no.,..,.,? really.,..,, wow i,..,.,,., never would have,.,.,.,., guessed

-5 gave you a teddy bear.

(Sans)

it has a sound box in it so that every time you squeeze it, the bear makes a fart noise. Thanks, sans

-You and 10 go out for a picnic. Everything is peaceful until 2 crashes it by showing up and inviting you to go hang out at a cafe. Would you go with 2 or stay with 10?

(Red, Fell)

,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,..,,,..,......i mean,,..,.,.,..,.,..,.,.,.dont make me answer this, im passing

-1 walked in on you while you were showering. What is your reaction?

(Razz)

i mean i’d be cool bc this shit happens all the time with my housemates, but im honestly not sure how well Razz would react

-What would happen if Twelve got Eight pregnant?

(Ink, Papyrus)

*megalovania playing in the distance* *paperjam quietly cursing bc “for fucks sake, not again, hope you dont abandon this kid too”*

-You catch 10 looking at questionable material on the internet.

(Red)

*google search bar is open with the history being just the word “tiddy” 278 times*

-Make up a summary of a 3/10 fanfic.

(Lust/Red)

“Red had picked him up off the street, one time, just looking for a night of fun. His Boss didn’t approve of his escapades, of course, but when you’re the center of a crime ring, not much you do is ever approved of. He’d become accustomed to seeing the scantily-clad skeleton walking the streets, a sultry gaze and ecto-body formed, letting himself be pulled and used in any way for a wad of cash. Maybe that was why he was so surprised to be walking past a flowershop one day and seeing the guy standing in the window, smelling a large bouquet. Cleaned up, not covered in various fluids of previous customers and dirt from when he was rejected and thrown against the ground, he looked really, really cute.

Fuck. Boss was gonna kill him.”

And now i want to write/read it. Great. I’m already swamped with shit so if anyone wants to pick this up then feel welcome

-All the listed characters get into a very epic and all-out battle. Who will be the last one standing?

*papyrus standing over eleven other unconscious bodies* “NYEH!”

-7 is having relationship problems, 4 tries to help him out but her advice isn’t helpful. Your thoughts about this predicament?

(Blue, Pink)

“I don’t think that I’m the best at making Sexy Spaghetti.”

“Then try making, erm, Tantalizing Tacos!”

“I don’t think that’s the best idea either.”

-Do any of your friends write or draw Eleven?

(Slim)

I mean.,,., not really.,.,.,., my poor meme-ing son doesn’t get enough love, imo. There’s a few fics abt him, but not a lot where he’s extremely prominent.

#stupid txt #this was fun tho #i feel my middle schooler phase coming through with a vengance

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mitchbeck · 5 years

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CANTLON'S CORNER: CONNECTICUT ICE TOURNEY UNVEILED

L-R Keith Allain, Yale head coach, Bill Riga, Associate head coach Quinnipiac University, Mike Cavanaugh, UCONN head coach, Steve Raab, President SNY, Thomas Gill, Director Economic Development City of Bridgeport, Tom Regan, CHC & USA Hockey, and CJ Marrotolo, Sacred Heart University head coach (PHOTO: Gerry Cantlon) BY: Gerry Cantlon, Howlings BRIDGEPORT, CT - A new, "Ice Age" is coming to Connecticut. This new "Ice Age" will cover Connecticut in ice, not the kind to cause downed stress, excessive traffic accidents, and inconvenience, but the exciting kind. The type of "Ice Age" that involves Connecticut college ice hockey. At a press conference Monday, an unveiling was made of the first-ever Connecticut Ice Tournament that will be played between January 24-26, 2020 at the Webster Bank Arena in Bridgeport. The tournament will feature all four of Connecticut's Division I college hockey teams. The tournament is part of a planned Connecticut festival of the sport of hockey. It's kind of a combination of Boston's Beanpot and the Quebec City Winter Carnival. The regional cable network, SNY, which is already affiliated with UCONN basketball and football broadcasts, was the driving force in creating the concept in 2017. After two years of effort, they made it a reality. “This is a very exciting day,” remarked SNY President, Steve Raab. “This has been two years of hard work to design and many people made this day possible.” One of the key elements was to help the growth of hockey in the State of Connecticut. To do so, all four Division I college programs, UCONN, Yale, Sacred Heart, and Quinnipiac needed to be involved. They will all carve out the time from their respective schedules to make this happen. “The spirit this will create, and the entertainment, it will bring many memories. This will bring hockey fans from the state to Bridgeport.” For UCONN head coach Mike Cavanaugh, he is happy and surprised. “To be honest, I couldn’t believe there wasn’t one before, but with all four schools now Division I, it makes it easier and will be a major plus for hockey in Connecticut.” Cavanaugh is in a rare position. He recruited Connecticut hockey players when he was at Boston College, and now as UCONN’s head coach for the last six years, he has a unique point of view. “It's going to help all the schools in recruiting because kids in Connecticut will grow up watching this and will see the benefits right away. A solid eight, ten years of keeping this tournament going will produce results. The whole state will be excited about this tournament I believe.” Early on, Cavanaugh brought the Boston rivalry piece with him to the Nutmeg State. "That’s why I have scheduled games against all the state teams, and we can develop continuity here. This is a great first step. As you saw at the end of the (promotional) video, you want guys 10-20 years from now talking about how they played in this tournament. Guys can talk about when they won this year, or that year, or scored a goal people, remember. That’s what makes traditions. “ Cavanaugh mentioned what he sees as a, 'cause and effect' by his having been a part of the Beanpot, the 65 year Boston tradition that takes place every February among the four Boston universities BC, BU, Harvard, and Northeastern. “If Tommy Cross (Simsbury) or Cam Atkinson (Greenwich) had played in a tournament like this, they would have been inclined to stay in state. The four schools never really played each other until Quinnipiac went into the ECAC with Yale. Now, with this, it will help grow this tournament and the game in the state." For now, the tournament will be in Bridgeport, but the question comes about if it could be rotated among the venues in the state. “I’m a Hartford guy. That’s our home rink. I’m just glad we're playing here at Webster Bank next year and will see what happens down the road,” said Cavanaugh. A major component to this plan is to have a youth portion in which Bantam age (13-14-year-olds) teams all the way to beginning Mites (6-8-year-olds) will compete on the very same ice as the big boys they watch and cheer for. A Friday night doubleheader will feature, a public school, and prep school hockey matchup, again bringing a whole new generation of youth hockey under one umbrella. “We were approached in 2017 about whether we could get youth hockey involved as part of the overall event,” said the Past President of the CT Hockey Conference, and USA Hockey Director, Tom Regan. He played both his high school and collegiate hockey in Connecticut. "We had discussions the last two years over timing, the format, but getting the four colleges was key. It’s the first event, it takes time and effort to get four schools when they are all in league play to commit to this. That shows you how important they all want this. "To do it (the tournament) in January in the heart of hockey season rather than something earlier in the year, might not have had the same (punch), and it's at ALL the levels and that makes it very important." To get all levels involved was critical for the ability to grow hockey. Having a sport that requires some cash to play was not lost on Regan. “To get the kids on the ice to play and watch the college kids play, it will give real inspiration to those (young) players. The next Brian Leetch, the next Chris Drury will see this grow the game, increase the excitement around the game, and for the tournament." The event had some warm light-hearted moments after the audio didn’t match up with the video at the beginning. Cavanaugh in his remarks uttered the best line of the day, “I could read Chris Drury’s lips and he was saying, if he were playing, he would have gone to UCONN!” C.J. Marrotolo, the head coach of the Sacred Heart University Pioneers, relayed a childhood story. “When I was nine or ten, I begged my parents to go to Yale games." Keith Allain, the Yale head coach deadpanned in his opening remarks, “I was disappointed C.J didn’t mention he wanted to see me playing goal,” Allain, who played at Yale and still holds the record for career saves in addition to guiding the Bulldogs to winning their first NCAA title in 2012, said with a laugh. Quinnipiac's assistant coach, Bill Riga, stood in for head coach Rand Pecknold, who is in preparation for his team's NCAA regional on Friday in Allentown, PA. The game will be played at the PPL Center against NCAA Independent Division I's Arizona State Sun Devils, who will be making their first appearance in the tournament just four years after upgrading their program to NCAA DI status. The Bobcats have reached the NCAA tourney five of the last seven years. Festival Weekend Schedule (Tentative): Friday, January 24, 2020 1:00 – 4:00 pm – Mites Cross Ice Jamboree 4:30 – 6:00 pm – Girls U12 Championship 6:30 – 8:00 pm – Connecticut Prep School Championship 8:30 – 10:00 pm – Connecticut High School Championship Saturday, January 25, 2020 11:30am – 1:00 pm – Squirts Boys Championship 1:30 – 3:00 pm – USA Hockey On-Ice Clinic – U12-U14 (Skills, Checking, Goaltending) 4:00 – 6:30 pm – SNY COLLEGE TOURNAMENT GAME 1 7:30 – 10:00 pm – SNY COLLEGE TOURNAMENT GAME 2 Sunday, January 26, 2020 11:30 am – 1:00 pm – Peewee Boys Championship 1:30 – 2:30 pm – USA Hockey On-Ice Clinic – Girls 3:30 – 6:00 pm – COLLEGE TOURNAMENT CONSOLATION – TBD v. TBD 7:00 – 9:30 pm – COLLEGE TOURNAMENT CHAMPIONSHIP – TBD v. TBD Tickets for the inaugural Connecticut Ice Festival are on sale now via: sny.tv/CTice Discounted ticket packages are available for all Connecticut Youth Hockey League families, as well as for students from the four participating colleges. Group ticket rates are also available for groups of 15 or more. Regular price two-day passes for Saturday, January 24 and Sunday, January 25 are $35.00 for kids (18 & under) and $70.00 for adults. General admission tickets for Friday night’s high school rivalry games will be available at the Webster Bank Arena Box Office. For more information on Connecticut Ice please go to www.SNY.tv/CTice Read the full article

#ArizonaStateSunDevils #BostonCollege #BrianLeetch #CamAtkinson #ChrisDrury #GerryCantlon #KeithAllain #MikeCavanaugh #NCAA #QuinnipiacBobcatsmen'sicehockey #QuinnipiacUniversity #RandPecknold #SacredHeartUniversity #TommyCross #WebsterBankArena #YaleBulldogsmen'sicehockey #YouthHockey

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junker-town · 6 years

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Bowl season has just given us the Michael Jordan Shrugs Game of punting

Wednesday’s bowl games were highlighted by Texas’ Michael Dickson. We are not worthy.

Texas Bowl: Texas 33, Missouri 16

On June 3, 1992, Michael Jordan put on one of the greatest displays of basketball ever seen. To date only a 28 percent 3-point shooter for his career, Jordan found The Zone, nailing six long balls in the first half of Game 1 of the NBA Finals against Portland. It was a Finals record that stood until 2010. After the last, Jordan shrugged his way down the court. Jordan scored 35 points in the first half as the Bulls bolted to a 15-point halftime lead. They would eventually win by 33.

On December 27, 2017, we saw the Jordan Shrugs game of college football punting.

From 2006 to the start of bowl season, 2,426 games featured a punter with at least eight punts.

Only 16 of those punters had at least three-quarters of their punts downed inside the 20.

Only seven also allowed zero (or fewer) punt return yards with no touchbacks.

In the Texas Bowl against Missouri, Texas’ Michael Dickson punted 11 times. Ten of them were downed inside the 20. None bounced into the end zone for a touchback, and none were returned.

That wasn’t all, though! Eight of his 11, 73 percent, were downed inside the 10. This genuinely may have been the best punting game of the last 10 years in college football, and I’m not sure it was close.

Texas averaged just 3.9 yards per play on offense and allowed 5.7. In terms of raw yardage, the Horns were outgained by 110. And after the first quarter, it was even worse: over the last 45 minutes, Mizzou gained 329 yards (6.5 per play) to Texas’ 170 (3.3).

The Longhorns not only punted 11 times but also went three-and-out six times. That all but guarantees you a field position disadvantage, and for a team that drove more than 50 yards just twice all night, it all but guarantees defeat.

Texas won by 17.

Average starting field position: Texas 39, Missouri 15

Average field position following punts: Texas 41, Missouri 11

THIS IS UNFAIR, MICHAEL DICKSON.

— ROCK M NATION (@RockMNation) December 28, 2017

Missouri scored touchdowns on two of its first three drives that began outside of its 10. But the third such drive didn't take place until the beginning of the second half. Interim offensive coordinator Joe Jon Finley stayed incredibly conservative when Missouri was backed up, and it made at least a little sense — the Tigers have a pretty good punter (Corey Fatony), and he and head coach Barry Odom probably believed they’d actually be able to flip the field.

Dickson made sure that wasn’t the case. Mizzou began one drive all night beyond its 30. Texas had eight. Toss in Anthony Wheeler’s 38-yard return of an Ish Witter fumble, and you’ve got the recipe for an easy with with almost no offensive yardage.

Dickson was named the game’s most valuable player. Naming a punter the MVP is rare, but this was the easiest choice you’ll ever see.

I noted following Louisiana Tech’s Frisco Bowl win over SMU that we had just witnessed one of the strangest games of the season. This result was nearly as incongruous with the box score as that one, but while it did feature some turnovers luck (Texas recovered all three of the game’s fumbles), Dickson was the reason the Horns were able to finish at 7-6, their first winning record in four years. If any punter has ever earned the right to jump to the pros early, it’s him.

Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa 27, Boston College 20

Texas wasn’t the only team to win a Wednesday bowl with things other than “yards” or “sustained drives.” Iowa gained just 200 yards in 54 snaps on an icy pitch in Yankee Stadium; the Hawkeyes went three-and-out five times in 12 possessions and twice scored points on drives of fewer than 20 yards.

Boston College nearly doubled their yardage (383), but thanks to the timely plays we’ve seen countless times during Kirk Ferentz’s 143 career wins at Iowa, the Hawkeyes did exactly what they needed to do and nothing more. They set up an early field goal with a deflected interception. When BC scored to take a 7-3 lead, they returned the kickoff 72 yards to set up a short TD drive.

BC owned the first half from a yardage perspective but only held a seven-point lead. And in the second half, the Hawkeyes got stingy, forcing punts on the Eagles’ first three possessions and turnovers twice in a row in the fourth quarter.

And to make the thing even more Iowa, linebacker-turned-fullback Drake Kulick scored the game-winning points. As God intended.

Foster Farms Bowl: Purdue 38, Arizona 35

Back when pairings were announced, I named the Foster Farms Bowl one of the coolest matchups of bowl season: “You’re interested in fun tactics, big plays, and two teams that are excited to be playing, right? Thought so.”

Wow, did this one live up expectations.

Purdue limited Arizona's Khalil Tate to just 75 non-sack rushing yards, so he threw for 302 yards and five touchdowns. And despite a torn ACL, Purdue's Elijah Sindelar threw for 396 yards and four scores. The Boilermakers ran Jeff Brohm's signature trick play, there were five lead changes and 985 combined yards ... this was beautiful, beautiful college football, easily the most thrilling iteration yet of the Foster Farms/Fight Hunger/Emerald/San Francisco Bowl. (Apologies to those who look back fondly on Illinois’ 20-14 win over UCLA in 2011.)

The Boilermakers pulled out the win with a manly 38-yard touchdown catch by Anthony Mahoungou...

...and to the victor go the narratives. The win gave Purdue only its second winning season in 10 years and capped an incredible one-year turnaround.

Here’s Purdue’s results in the four years under the previous staff. Jeff Brohm is a goddamn miracle worker http://pic.twitter.com/YnfSCGdCFZ

— Chris B. Brown (@smartfootball) December 28, 2017

The Boilermakers had six wins in three years before winning seven this fall. Brohm is indeed a damn miracle worker. Now we’ll get to find out how good a program builder he is.

Independence Bowl: Florida State 42, Southern Miss 13

It was fair to wonder if FSU would find the motivation to take care of business in Shreveport. Interim coach Odell Haggins and quarterback James Blackman made sure that wasn’t an issue.

Haggins did a masterful job of managing distractions as the program changed hands from Jimbo Fisher to Willie Taggart. Blackman made sure FSU’s receivers had a reason to run their routes with full effort.

The freshman completed 18 of 26 passes for 233 yards and four touchdowns and rushed six times for 29 yards to boot. He threw a perfect 20-yard strike to Auden Tate for a 20-yard score on the Seminoles’ first possession, threw a 14-yarder to Cam Akers to put the Noles up 13-6 early in the second quarter, hit Tate again late in the first half, and that was that. FSU scored on eight of its first nine drives, and despite some nice running by Ito Smith (20 combined rushes and receptions for 118 yards), the Golden Eagles had no chance of keeping up.

The main story was the potential presence of Deion Sanders on Taggart’s coaching staff, but as fun as that would be, perhaps the headlines should have belonged to Blackman.

The freshman became the starter by default following Deondre Francois' season-ending injury in Week 1, and he was handed a receiving corps that couldn't keep anybody healthy. He showed flashes of potential but lost five of his first eight starts while producing a 56 percent completion rate and a passer rating of just 121.6.

His last four games: 4-0 record, 63 percent completion rate, 168.9 passer rating. Early on, it was easy to see Francois resuming his post as QB1 in 2018. But now? Taggart’s got some intriguing options heading into spring ball.

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junker-town · 6 years

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THE NUMERICAL: BC (!) and Mizzou (!) have been college football’s hottest teams, while Bama’s been the best

Let’s see which teams have beaten their projections by the most over the last month.

Ten weeks into a college football season, most teams are not what they were at the start. Injuries, slumps, surges, freshmen actually learning where classroom buildings are ... lots of things have changed.

That makes it difficult to rank teams. Sample size is an issue in football, but it gets especially tricky when the teams you’re grading have changed even within said small sample.

For a yearlong measure, that makes things a little bit weird. S&P+ (and other metrics) still have pretty good reads on a large number of FBS teams, but it’s hard for a single metric to keep up with so many changes.

With that in mind, I thought it would be interesting to take a gander at which teams have changed the most in recent weeks. Who is S&P+ struggling the most to keep up with?

Below is a table with four numbers for each FBS team:

The team’s overall S&P+ ranking

The team’s ranking, if we counted only the last four weeks of games

The difference between a team’s projected results (per S&P+) and its actual results over the last four weeks. Example: If you were projected to win a game by 5 and you won by 10 instead, you get a plus-5.

Each team has played only three or four games in this sample, and it isn’t necessarily meant to be a predictive or statistically significant observation. (That Arkansas State ranks fourth in S&P+ over the last four weeks should emphasize that point.) But it will give us a very good idea of which teams aren’t the teams they were a few weeks ago.

Some thoughts on the hottest teams:

Boston College suddenly discovered an offense.

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Big AJ Dillon has been a revelation for BC.

The Eagles were 2-4 and averaging 16.3 points per game following a 23-10 home loss to Virginia Tech. The last three games, they’ve won a 45-42 shootout at Louisville, thumped Virginia 41-10 in Charlottesville, and waylaid Florida State 35-3.

This happened as the Eagles leaned on freshman quarterback Anthony Brown and freshman running back AJ Dillon. That’s stunning.

Brown is still battling inefficiency — he was 19-for-24 against Virginia but 11-for-37 against UL and FSU — but in the 240-pound Dillon, Steve Addazio has found his new Andre Williams. Dillon’s averaged 32 carries per game in this streak. And given extra help from the offense, the BC defense is coming off of two straight great games.

Missouri suddenly discovered its confidence.

The offense began to turn around after a bye in September. The Tigers scored a total of 30 points against South Carolina, Purdue, and Auburn but have averaged 45 over the last five.

The emergence of junior receiver Emanuel Hall (21 catches, 500 yards, four TDs in these five games) and freshman tight end Albert Okwuegbunam (six touchdown catches in the last four) has given the Tigers too many weapons for most defenses. Combine that with Drew Lock throwing one hell of a deep ball, and you’ve got Mizzou leading the nation with 13 passes of 50-plus yards.

The run game has stabilized, despite an injury to star back Damarea Crockett. Led by senior Ish Witter and freshman Larry Rountree III, Mizzou’s rushing success rate has been 50 percent or higher in each game since he went down.

The defense ... is only okay. But since getting emasculated by Georgia, Mizzou held Idaho, UConn, and Florida to 4.3 yards per play and 16.3 points per game. Opponent adjustments and all, but that could be worse. And thanks to the SEC East’s collapse, the Tigers’ odds of bowling have gone from 6 to 69 percent, per S&P+ win probabilities, in three weeks. Nice.

No one knows what it is more than Arkansas State.

In four seasons under Blake Anderson, the Red Wolves are 5-13 in non-conference play and bowl games, 2-12 against FBS competition. They’re also 24-4 in the Sun Belt. Sure, that drops a hint about quality in the SBC, but it also shows intention.

ASU is not a national title contender; therefore, non-conference play only means so much. Going 0-4 means qualifying for a bowl is difficult, but that seems to be something Anderson is willing to live with if it means using the non-conference schedule to figure out what he’s got and prepare to unleash hell.

In 2016, ASU was so bad in non-conference (which included a loss to FCS Central Arkansas) that even after winning eight of their last games, the Red Wolves finished only 80th in S&P+. This year, that hasn’t been as much of a problem. They went just 1-2 in non-con, but they nearly beat Nebraska and smoked UAPB before getting smoked by SMU. And they still found a switch to flip; they’re 4-0 in the Sun Belt, with an average margin of plus-28. S&P+ gives them a 72 percent chance of finishing either 7-1 or 8-0 in conference this year.

Jason Kirk and I discussed Arkansas State’s rankings rise, among other things, in this week’s Sunday PAPN:

Of course, four weeks or 10, the same is atop the heap: Bama.

Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide refuse to succumb to the chaos that is trying to envelop this season. Where’s the rest of the S&P+ top 10, in terms of recent ups and downs?

Overall No. 2 Ohio State (which means S&P+ would still pick Ohio State against most teams, not that Ohio State has the second-best resume; Resume S&P+ has you covered there) is No. 20 in the most recent four weeks. Not all of that is just because of the Iowa game, but ... most of it is because of the Iowa game.

No. 3 Washington has been the 10th-best team over the last four weeks. That defense is getting increasingly ridiculous, though the offense suffered a two-week blip.

No. 4 Georgia is the second-best team over the last four weeks. The eyeballs agree, I think.

No. 5 UCF and No. 6 Wisconsin are No. 11 and 12, respectively, doing what they need to do against less-than-impressive slates.

No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 8 TCU are No. 8 and 6, respectively. Chugging along.

There’s slippage at the bottom. No. 9 Auburn had been just the 19th-best team over four weeks, though the Tigers were outstanding against Texas A&M on Saturday. And No. 10 Penn State, down from No. 3 just two weeks ago, has played like barely a top-40 team. Playing Michigan State in the rain will mess you up.

As for the team at the bottom of the list, Ball State is one step from playing walk-ons.

See if you can spot when the Cardinals’ season went awry:

Ball State’s offense, first 4 games: 30.3 points per game, 58% average offensive percentile performance

Ball State’s offense, last 5 games: 9.2 points per game, 10% average offensive percentile performance

What happened? The two-deep got detonated.

Starting quarterback Riley Neal went down, and his backups started falling. Four Cardinals have thrown at least 15 passes, the latest of which (Drew Plitt) is a redshirt freshman.

Starting running back James Gilbert went down. Freshman Caleb Huntley has taken on the lion’s share.

Leading returning receivers Corey Lacanario and Jordan Hogue, both seniors, have combined to play five games and catch 14 passes. The leading receivers are two freshmen and two sophomores.

The starting offensive line has changed five times in nine games. BSU was supposed to return three linemen who started all 12 games last year, but one (Pat Maloney) was medically disqualified, and another (Alex Joss) tore his ACL in the opener. Starting left tackle Kaleb Slaven also just went down.

Mike Neu showed promise in his first season at BSU and seems to be recruiting well. But this team doesn’t have nearly the depth to handle this bad luck.

Big Play watch

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Baker Mayfield was almost perfect in Stillwater on Saturday.

One final nod to Bedlam. We use the term “track meet” to describe offense-friendly football games, but Oklahoma’s 62-52 win over Oklahoma State was a bit more literal than normal.

Despite both offenses slowing down in the second half, the Sooners and Cowboys combined for 1,446 yards — more than three-quarters of a mile — in just 164 snaps.

OU had six rushes of at least 13 yards, while OSU had seven.

OU had 14 such passes, and OSU had 13.

OU had seven passes of 30-plus yards, and OSU had six.

The 13 combined passes of 30-plus are more than 61 FBS teams have managed all season.

And to think, the game was basically decided by defense. OSU gave itself a chance to take the lead with a goal line interception with three minutes left, but OU forced a turnover on downs. And after scoring 76 points in the first half, they combined for a mere 38 in the second.

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Elon watch

The Phoenix did it again. As mentioned in last week’s Numerical, the wildest story in Division I continued as Elon moved to 8-1 for the season with a 33-30 overtime win over Towson (replete with a huge fourth-quarter blown lead) for Homecoming. They are 6-0 in Colonial play; they were 6-34 in the CAA over the last five years.

This makes it even crazier: the Phoenix still have a negative scoring margin for the season. At 8-1! They lost 47-13 to Toledo in the season opener and have won by three, two, three, six, eight, one, five, and three points. That’s eight wins by a combined 31 and a season scoring margin of minus-3.

Is this sustainable? Of course not. Elon fumbled four times against Towson and recovered all four. They are 44th in total offense and 72nd in total defense. Even if they get by No. 16 New Hampshire on the road this week (presumably by two points), they will probably get smoked by No. 1 James Madison the week after.

But hell, man, you don’t worry about sustainability during a run like this. Worry takes away from your ability to soak it in for all it’s worth.

Elon was ranked in the #FCS committee's top-10 last night. Now go behind-the-scenes with the Phoenix (via @ElonFB) http://pic.twitter.com/fAhDLFVSgm

— FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) November 3, 2017

Gunner of the Year watch

Out of pure curiosity, I’ve been tracking special teams tackles this year. Maybe we’ll give a pretend award out to whoever has the most at the end. Winner of the award gets it named after him.

There wasn’t a lot of movement this week, but here’s your fake award watch list through 10 weeks:

South Alabama’s Deonta Moore still leads with 11 special teams tackles, but he did not add to his total in the Jaguars’ 19-14 loss to UL-Lafayette. They needed him to: two nice Earnest Patterson punt returns set up 10 Cajun points in the tight loss.

WMU’s Alex Grace added a tackle to his ledger; he’s now at 10.5 tackles. He’s taken part in five punt returns (average return: 7.4 yards) and seven kick returns (average return: 18.3).

USF’s Nate Ferguson continues to hang around. He’s up to 10 ST tackles and has taken part in nine kick return stops (21.1 average) and three punt return stops (5.7).

BGSU’s Nilijah Ballew, a familiar watch list name (and a great name in general), combining quantity and quality: he’s at nine ST tackles, and opponents are averaging 3 yards per return on his three punt stops and just 10.2 yards per return on his six kick return stops.

EMU’s Matthew Sexton, sophomore receiver, is also up to nine ST tackles, with a punt return average of 2.2 yards and a KR average of 14.8.

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junker-town · 7 years

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The Numerical: Oklahoma has the country’s best Playoff odds ... after Bama, of course

A review of the best in college football stats after Week 2 also includes notes on Auburn, Kansas State, UCLA, Virginia Tech, and more.

1. The new stat profiles are here!

This year’s Football Study Hall statistical profiles for all 130 FBS teams are up and running! Just two weeks into a long season, here are some of the things the profiles can tell us.

2. Oklahoma is in the catbird seat (non-Bama division)

The top four teams in the latest AP poll — Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson, and USC — have all significant hurdles in their College Football Playoff journeys. The Crimson Tide survived Florida State in Week 1, while the latter three (Oklahoma over Ohio State, Clemson over Auburn, USC over Stanford) won some of the most losable games on their schedules in Week 2.

The Sooners faced the most losable game, however, and now the Sooners have it pretty easy compared to their CFP contender brethren.

Using S&P+ win probabilities, you can use the stat profiles to find a team’s odds of finishing with a given record. For the teams in the current AP top 20, here are the odds of each finishing with one or fewer losses in the 2017 regular season:

Alabama (62.5 percent chance of finishing 11-1 or better)

Oklahoma (36.6 percent)

USC (34.3 percent)

Wisconsin (32.9 percent)

Clemson (30.8 percent)

Penn State (28.1 percent)

Washington (25.1 percent)

Michigan (18.4 percent)

Louisville (16.1 percent)

LSU (15.7 percent)

Ohio State (14.0 percent)

Oklahoma State (10.5 percent)

TCU (6.8 percent)

Miami (6.3 percent)

Stanford (5.3 percent)

Georgia (5.0 percent)

Virginia Tech (4.8 percent)

Florida State (3.4 percent)

Kansas State (1.2 percent)

Auburn (1.1 percent)

Obviously the Crimson Tide remain on a different plane of existence (they’re the only team with a better than 10 percent chance of finishing the regular season undefeated: 24 percent there) but Oklahoma is in an enviable spot. Their 11-1-or-more odds were under 25 percent when the season began; win your hardest game, and things improve quickly.

The Sooners still have games against three other AP top 20 teams (OSU, TCU, KSU), but everybody has big games remaining. OU’s got almost as good a chance as anyone of cashing in.

3. Josh Rosen is UCLA’s efficiency

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Josh Rosen

UCLA’s defense ranks 88th in passing success rate allowed and 116th in rushing success rate allowed at the moment, and the Bruins’ run game hasn’t shown a ton of early improvement over last year’s dismal campaign: they still rank 104th in rushing success rate.

But there’s Rosen, completing 68 percent of his passes and dragging the Bruins to a No. 17 ranking in passing success rate.

He began the season 6-for-17 for 35 yards. Since then: 51-for-67, 785 yards, nine touchdowns.

4. Alabama’s got a one-man receiving corps

Through two games, Alabama quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa have combined to target nine different players at least twice and only one more than four times. Calvin Ridley has been targeted with 17 passes, a full 13 more than No. 2 target Cam Sims.

It’d be one thing if those 17 targets were racking up massive yards. But despite a long touchdown against FSU, Ridley is averaging just 10.6 yards per catch and 7.5 yards per target. He’s steady, but things are going to have to open up a bit. Bama currently ranks a dismal 129th in passing-downs success rate; granted, most of that is because of FSU’s awesome defense, but even against Fresno State, Bama’s PD success rate was just 25 percent.

5. Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham is getting hit a lot

Auburn’s quarterback situation is pretty solid — if Stidham were to get hurt, backup Sean White is in place. White was fine when healthy a year ago.

Still, that doesn’t mean you should try to get Stidham hurt. Not only was he sacked an incredible 11 times in 35 attempts against Clemson last week (maybe the highest sack rate I’ve ever seen in a non-FCS game), but he also got sacked three times in 27 attempts against Georgia Southern in Week 1’s blowout win. That’s a cool 22.6 percent sack rate over two games; as a frame of reference, anything above about 8 percent is pretty bad.

6. Kansas State looks awfully “peak Collin Klein” Kansas State

As is Bill Snyder’s preference, the Wildcats have begun with tuneups. They outscored Central Arkansas and Charlotte by a combined 110-26, showing flashes of their best run game since Klein was behind center.

Yes, you should be able to push UCA and Charlotte around, but the Wildcats are second in the country in opportunity rate (frequency of rushes of at least five yards), third in success rate, and ninth in stuff rate. Quarterback Jesse Ertz is averaging 6.5 yards per carry, and top backs Alex Barnes and Dalvin Warmack are averaging 5.7. You’d love to see a little more explosiveness, but right now that’s coming from the passing game: Ertz is completing 70 percent of his passes at 19.7 yards per completion.

KSU doesn’t move backwards and connects on deep passes. That’s a lovely combination. But something will have to give when the Wildcats face Vanderbilt this weekend, because ...

6. The Commodores are knocking you backwards

Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images

Dare Odeyingbo (34)

That Vandy is 2-0 isn’t a total surprise, but the way the Dores have accomplished it is.

Despite all-world linebacker Zach Cunningham, they ranked just 55th in havoc rate (tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles per play) in 2016.

Early in 2017, they are an easy No. 1 in havoc right now at 31 percent. Hell, their front seven alone (20.8 percent) would rank in the top 30 overall.

Linebacker Charles Wright and end Dare Odeyingbo each has 4.5 TFLs already, and corner Tre Herndon has broken up three passes. A havoc rate of over 30 percent is unsustainable, but we’ve seen clear signs of improved aggression here, and that makes Saturday’s visit from Kansas State maybe the most underrated game of Week 3.

7. Defense and special teams is the recipe for Colorado

The Buffaloes’ offense hit some stumbling blocks against Colorado State and Texas State. They are just 77th in success rate thus far and 113th in finishing drives.

You probably haven’t noticed, though, because they have still outscored opponents by a combined 48 thanks, to a flexible defense (second in finishing drives), decent big-play prevention (35th in defensive explosiveness), and dynamite special teams. They are tied for first in kickoff success rate and ninth in punting success rate, and freshman kicker James Stefanou has made four of five field goals. That’s good for an early No. 2 ranking in Special Teams S&P+.

8. Missouri’s got the tempo thing down

Under second-year offensive coordinator Josh Heupel, the Tigers are averaging a play for every 18.4 seconds of possession, fastest in the country.

But that’s not the whole story — they are doing this despite running the ball quite a bit. Arkansas State (second at 18.7) has thrown more than 75 percent of the time, and Indiana (third at 19.3) has thrown 65 percent. Throwing more equals more stoppages.

When you factor in run-pass rates, Missouri’s expected seconds per play is around 25.8, a difference of 7.4 seconds, which dwarves other high-tempo teams like USF (6.1), Tulsa (5.9), and Memphis (5.9).

Now the Tigers just need to make more of those plays. After scoring 72 points against Missouri State, they managed just 13 against South Carolina.

9. Your best special teams coverage guy: BC’s Isaac Yiadom

A new addition to this year’s profiles: special teams tackles. I thought it would be interesting to track who’s making stops on special teams and where they’re doing them.

Thus far, eight FBS players have made at least four tackles of opposing return men, and Boston College’s Yiadom has made maybe the most valuable tackles — he’s made two stops on punt returns, and those returns have averaged just three yards each; he’s made two stops on kick returns, and they’ve averaged just 19 yards.

10. Kansas’ Joe Dineen, stuffs machine

Kansas suffered a disappointing 45-27 loss to Central Michigan on Saturday; any hope of showing major improvement in 2017 sort of went out the window. But don’t blame Dineen. The junior linebacker has already recorded 23.5 tackles this season and has contributed to a nation-leading eight run stuffs (stops at or behind the line of scrimmage, another new stat profile feature this year).

Other stuffs leaders:

8: UMass’ Bryton Barr

7: BGSU’s Nate Locke, Hawaii’s VIane Moala, NIU’s Jawuan Johnson and Sutton Smith

6: Idaho’s Tony Lashley, NC State’s Bradley Chubb, Oregon State’s Jonathan Willis, SJSU’s Frank Ginda

11. Your return man is going to be bored playing Virginia Tech

Hokie kicker Joey Slye has attempted 12 kickoffs this season. All 12 resulted in touchbacks.

Big play watch

John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

OSU’s Marcell Ateman

It’s your weekly check-in on the nation’s two funnest teams, Oklahoma State and Penn State. OSU won its Week 1 big-play battle with PSU, recording six gains of 40-plus yards to the Nittany Lions’ two. On the boxing scorecard, the Cowboys took Round 1, 10-9.

Round 2: a 10-0 tie. Both teams had four gains of 20-plus and one gain of 40-plus. PSU was nearly given the round due to degree of difficulty — the Nittany Lions played Pitt while OSU went to South Alabama — but, um, I’m not sure how much more difficult playing the Pitt defense is at the moment.

By the way, in the Fun Teams watch:

Oregon leads the country with 20 gains of 20-plus yards. (Missouri and Stanford are second at 18.)

Maryland leads with eight gains of 40-plus yards. (OSU and West Virginia are second at seven.)

Overachiever watch

In last week’s Numerical, I looked at the teams and conferences that over- and underachieved the most compared to their S&P+ projections. Thanks primarily to Maryland and Wisconsin, the Big Ten was your overachievement leader. Let’s check in again after Week 2.

FBS conferences in order of performance vs. S&P+ projection

Big 12 (19 games, plus-3.8 points per game)

MWC (26 games, plus-2.9 points per game)

Big Ten (28 games, plus-2.6 points per game)

Pac-12 (25 games, plus-1.0 points per game)

MAC (24 games, plus-0.3 points per game)

AAC (20 games, plus-0.0 points per game)

Conference USA (27 games, minus-0.2 points per game)

SEC (27 games, minus-0.6 points per game)

ACC (26 games, minus-0.9 points per game)

Sun Belt (20 games, minus-1.1 points per game)

It would make sense that the SEC and ACC would underachieve a bit since they began the season on the top of the pack. But the Big 12’s early performance is impressive considering it features the biggest S&P+ underachiever in the country so far.

S&P+ underachieves (min: 2 games)

Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Matt Rhule left Temple for Baylor last season. Thus far, both Temple and Baylor are struggling.

Baylor (minus-28.0 points per game)

ECU (minus-26.3)

FIU (minus-22.3)

Temple (minus-18.1)

WKU (minus-18.0)

Oregon State (minus-17.9)

Northwestern (minus-17.5)

Bowling Green (minus-16.3)

Texas A&M (minus-15.5)

Kent State (minus-14.4)

When people see something like LSU ranking No. 2 in S&P+, they assume recruiting rankings are skewing projections. They are part of the projections, however, only because they are solid statistical predictors of success.

The biggest source of early skew, however: coaching changes. Four of the top five underachievers are in Year 1 of a new regime, and, well, the fifth team in that group (ECU) probably shouldn’t have changed coaches in 2016.

Meanwhile, the biggest overachiever also has a new coach.

S&P+ overachievers (min: 2 games)

Fresno State (plus-31.2 points per game)

Duke (plus-26.6)

Mississippi State (plus-24.6)

Maryland (plus-24.2)

Purdue (plus-19.9)

SMU (plus-18.9)

Wake Forest (plus-18.7)

Army (plus-17.7)

TCU (plus-17.0)

Oregon (plus-16.1)

Mississippi State a major overachiever, eh? With LSU coming to Starkville this week, eh?

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junker-town · 7 years

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Luke Fickell is Mr. Ohio, but can he make Cincinnati national again?

The Bearcats’ path back to being treated like a power program begins close to home.

It is one of the more startling quirks of recent college football history, a what-if of a what-if: for a couple of confusing minutes late on December 5, 2009, the Cincinnati Bearcats were headed to the BCS Championship.

That afternoon, Brian Kelly's squad had survived No. 14 Pitt on the road in a snowstorm in maybe the most fantastic game of the season.

That evening, in the Big 12 title game in Arlington, Texas' Colt McCoy threw the ball out of bounds to stop the clock and set up a game-winning field goal, but the clock seemed to expire. Mack Brown wagged his finger, replay put a second back on the clock, UT's Hunter Lawrence nailed a 46-yard field goal, and the Longhorns won, 13-12.

We remember that game because of Brown's finger and the dominance by Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh. Husker fans still occasionally bring up how screwed they were. (They weren't: there was time on the clock when McCoy's toss made contact with something out of bounds.) But Nebraska was only a proxy; the Huskers weren't going to the national title game with a win.

For a couple of minutes, it appeared as if Cincinnati would be playing Alabama for a shot at a ring. The Bearcats hadn't ever finished a season ranked until two years before.

Instead, they were on the outside looking in. They became only the second unbeaten major-conference champion to be left out of the national title game (and would later hire the coach of the first).

Within five years, through no fault of its own, Cincinnati was no longer a major-conference team, relegated through random silliness to the confines of the AAC, the best mid-major conference but a mid-major all the same.

Cincinnati began life with a new type of coach, too. After hiring three up-and-comers whom it would lose to Michigan State (Mark Dantonio), Notre Dame (Brian Kelly), and Tennessee (Butch Jones), the program brought in somebody FROM a major conference.

Tommy Tuberville fit from a poetry standpoint: the school that went unbeaten but missed out on a title shot hired a guy most known for going unbeaten in 2004 at Auburn but missing out on a title shot. The Bearcats went 9-4 in 2013 and 2014 and showed upside capable of double-digit wins. But in 2015, they suffered a crazy number of injuries and bad bounces and went from AAC favorite to 7-6. And in 2016, the end came. A 3-1 start begat a 1-7 finish; after a 31-19 win over ECU, the Bearcats lost four straight by an average of more than three touchdowns.

The win over ECU was Tuberville's last. He retired and moved to politics. In his absence, it appears Cincinnati has decided to embrace its Ohio roots. After bringing in outsiders, the school replaced Tuberville with Mr. Ohio.

Fickell was born in Columbus, graduated from Columbus DeSales High School, attended Ohio State, and has spent his entire career at Ohio State and Akron. Just about the only time he’s left the state is when he played for the New Orleans Saints for a year.

Fickell spent most of the last 12 seasons as Ohio State’s defensive co-coordinator, sans one year as interim head coach during the transition from Jim Tressel to Urban Meyer. He is regarded as a masterful recruiter. He is as Ohio as Ohio can be. He was evidently even endorsed by stats.

Fickell inherits a squad that lost its way offensively but boasts exciting defensive pieces. He has offensive questions to answer — he promised up-tempo but brought in a coordinator from a decidedly slow attack — but he is doing his best to embrace Cincinnati’s odd identity as a power program in a non-power universe. He brought in assistants with power-conference experience and has recruited like a power-conference head coach for 2018.

An Ohio guy leading Ohio’s No. 2 program. This certainly feels right, at least.

2016 in review

2016 Cincinnati statistical profile.

In last year’s Cincinnati preview, I said, “With the bounces that went against UC in 2015, the rough-draft talent that will show up in uniform in 2016, and the massive number of tossup games that the Bearcats will play this fall, this might be the biggest wildcard team in the country.”

Preseason S&P+ projections said the Bearcats had between a 38 and 61 percent chance of winning in 10 of 12 games, with two likely wins early on. That meant a run of good or bad fortune could have huge consequences.

Cincinnati took both of its likely wins and split the first two tossups, winning easily at Purdue and losing handily to Houston. But quarterback Hayden Moore injured his leg against Houston, setting off severe shuffling. Ross Trail threw five interceptions against Miami (Ohio) and USF, Moore returned against UConn but struggled, former starter Gunner Kiel looked great against ECU then struggled, and Moore returned to struggle twice in blowout losses to UCF and Memphis before rallying against Tulsa.

Cincinnati’s run game was mostly awful from start to finish. And when you don’t have a quarterback or a ground attack, you don’t have an offense.

First 4 games (3-1): Avg. percentile performance: 56% (~top 55) | Avg. yards per play: UC 5.7, Opp 5.4 (plus-0.3) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-3.3 PPG

Next 7 games (1-6): Avg. percentile performance: 32% (~top 90) | Avg. yards per play: Opp 5.2, UC 4.7 (minus-0.5) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-10.7 PPG

When Tuberville failed in his career, it was because of a struggling offense. And his career ended with maybe his worst offense.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

The quarterback position turned into a mess, but falling into passing downs will limit the upside of any QB. Cincinnati couldn’t even pretend to run the ball, and that affixed a low ceiling.

Cincinnati ranked 52nd in Adj. Line Yards, which might say decent things about the line, but ranked just 112th in overall Rushing S&P+, which says awful things about the backs.

Tion Green and Mike Boone flashed almost no explosiveness, and the Bearcats finished with just five rushes of 20-plus yards all season. ALL SEASON. New Mexico nearly averaged four such rushes per game.

Fickell proclaimed that establishing the run was priority No. 1 for new coordinator Mike Denbrock, and it’s not hard to see why. That could be tricky with the loss of four-year starting center Deyshawn Bond and guards Ryan Leahy and Idarius Ray. But four returnees started at least two games last year, including backup guards Will Steur and Keith Minor, and the Bearcats have a few three-star youngsters.

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Boone

Cincinnati might have the pieces up front for a decent run game; does it have the backs? Depends on which Boone we see. The senior began his career with a bang, then hit a wall.

Boone’s first 17 games: 173 carries, 1,283 yards (7.4 per carry), 16 TDs

Boone’s last 12 games: 137 carries, 504 yards (3.7), 4 TDs

Boone missed the last three games with injury, but if he’s not only healthy but back to his early-2015 self, that could spark the run. And he’s a threat catching passes.

If Boone doesn’t work out, the onus might fall to a redshirt freshman: 2016 star recruit Gerrid Doaks is a big dude (6’0, 206 pounds) who chose Cincy over at least one Big Ten offer, and after missing part of spring with a hamstring injury, he had a nice spring game, combining 61 rushing yards with 35 receiving yards.

Denbrock was also tasked with picking up the pace. Cincinnati moved at a below-average tempo in 2016, and in his interview, Fickell promised an “up-tempo, spread offense.” Maybe Denbrock can deliver that, but he was an odd choice. Denbrock spent the last seven seasons with former Cincy head coach Brian Kelly at Notre Dame, which hasn’t exactly been known for pace.

(Granted, the Irish averaged a few more plays per game in 2014, his lone season as coordinator, than they otherwise did.)

It’s hard to operate with tempo if you can’t run, but if Boone rediscovers his 2015 self, and Cincinnati isn’t falling into second-and-9 or third-and-8 situations, the passing game might have enough experience.

Moore struggled for most of 2016 but looked great at times in 2015. His problem has been picks: when he throws one, another is soon to follow. He threw five in his last two games of 2015, and in just 470 career passes, he has thrown 18 interceptions; his INT rate of 3.8 percent is about twice as high as a QB’s should be. Trail completed an encouraging 66 percent last year, but they didn’t really go anywhere (10.7 yards per completion), and to say the least, he also had a picks problem (six in 70 passes).

They’ve got receivers, at least. Senior Devin Gray averaged nearly 15 yards per catch last year, and junior Kahlil Lewis had a decent 48 percent success rate. Three-star sophomores Jerron Rollins and Thomas Geddis and four-star junior Avery Johnson, meanwhile, combined to catch 21 balls for 356 yards last year, and eight three-star freshmen (five redshirts, three true) could play a role. There are options here, and if Cincinnati can better avoid passing downs, it might be able to pass.

Joey Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Hayden Moore

Defense

Cincinnati’s offense was not terrible on passing downs (71st in PD S&P+) but faced too many of them to succeed.

The Bearcats’ defense, meanwhile, faced the opposite problem. They created plenty of passing downs, but their bend-don’t-break approach sometimes let opponents off of the hook. They prevented big plays with aplomb, allowing just 18 gains of 30-plus yards all year (sixth in FBS). That alone was good enough to power a No. 53 overall Def. S&P+ ranking. But inefficiency backfired at times.

Fickell’s defensive reputation was established thanks in part to blue-chippers he will now have far less access to, but one assumes he and coordinator Marcus Freeman will be able to figure some things out on that side. The hire of Freeman is interesting — he’s only 32 years old (he played linebacker for Fickell at OSU) and has only been a full-time football coach for six years. But he’s a well-regarded recruiter and Ohio guy, and he inherits a defense that has all sorts of experience.

Cincinnati returns eight of last year’s top 10 tacklers on the line, and only one is a senior. Juniors Kevin Mouhon (end) and Marquise Copeland (undersized tackle) combined for 14 TFLs up front, but seven of the eight key returnees each had at least 2.5 TFLs. There is play-making depth up front, and while Copeland mans the interior at only 260 pounds, junior Cortez Broughton (6’2, 297) and mid-three-star freshman (6’3, 315) could each add some heft.

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Marquise Copeland (44) and Kevin Mouhon (48)

Though the Bearcats do have to replace a solid safety in Zach Edwards, everybody else is back in the secondary. That includes cornerbacks Linden Stephens and Alex Thomas (combined: six interceptions, 10 breakups) and four safeties who made at least 25.5 tackles in 2016. Cincinnati picked off 17 passes last year, and those responsible for 11 of them return. Now to do something about that 61 percent completion rate...

Generally speaking, the linebacking corps is the easiest place on the defense to replace production; Cincinnati will test that theory, as it has to replace all three starting linebackers. Eric Wilson, Antonio Kinard, and Mike Tyson combined for 196 tackles, 19.5 TFLs, 4.5 sacks, and 14 passes defensed, and only one returnee (middle linebacker Jaylyin Minor) recorded more than five tackles.

Junior and steady 2015 contributor Bryce Jenkinson returns, however, after playing just two games last year, and Tuberville’s parting gift to Fickell might be a trio of mid-three-star redshirt freshmen: Joel Dublanko, Tyquan Statham, and Ty Sponseller. The best recruit of the 2017 class is also a linebacker: RJ Potts of Fishers (Ind.), was a four-star per the Composite.

This defense made plays and gave up quite a few easy completions. The pass defense has something to prove, but unless the linebacking corps craters (which I doubt), the run defense should again force lots of passing downs.

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Linden Stephens

Special Teams

The special teams unit returns everyone in 2017, and that might be a good thing. Josh Pasley was too inconsistent in the place-kicking department, and a poor kicking grade gave Cincy a No. 92 Special Teams S&P+ ranking. But punter Sam Geraci’s kicks are high and unreturnable, Brayden Beard is a semi-efficient punt return man, and while Mike Boone wasn’t consistent enough in kick returns, he was at least explosive.

And hey, if Cincinnati can actually run the ball, it might not have to ask Pasley to attempt as many field goals. Win-win.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 31-Aug Austin Peay NR 43.5 99% 9-Sep at Michigan 10 -24.6 8% 16-Sep at Miami (Ohio) 88 1.9 54% 23-Sep at Navy 71 -3.7 42% 30-Sep Marshall 101 9.6 71% 7-Oct Central Florida 78 2.8 57% 21-Oct SMU 81 5.1 62% 28-Oct at South Florida 56 -8.2 32% 4-Nov at Tulane 94 3.3 58% 10-Nov Temple 67 -1.5 46% 18-Nov at East Carolina 100 4.5 60% 25-Nov Connecticut 125 16.7 83%

Projected S&P+ Rk 75 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 93 / 53 Projected wins 6.7 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 1.7 (61) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 67 / 68 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 1 / -2.3 2016 TO Luck/Game +1.4 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 67% (70%, 64%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 4.7 (-0.7)

Cincinnati plays in historic Nippert Stadium but, strangely, didn’t have much of a history before the 2000s. The Bearcats dominated early in the 1950s and moved to Division I, but when head coach Sid Gillman left to take over the Los Angeles Rams, they cranked through nearly four bowl-free decades, threatening to make noise but rarely making a ripple.

During the 2000s, though, UC has been one of the country’s more consistent programs, winning at least seven games 13 times in 17 years. But after four straight years of at least nine wins, the Bearcats trailed off in Tuberville’s last two years. And it’s up to Fickell to reestablish momentum.

I’m not going to lie: I get a little bit concerned when I see a coordinator hire made, seemingly, for recruiting purposes (Freeman), or when I see another coordinator (Denbrock) tasked with establishing an identity he hasn’t proven he can establish.

S&P+ projects Cincinnati an optimistic 7-5 and 75th overall. If the tempo clicks on offense and the run defense is as good as I think it will be, then that sounds realistic. But those “ifs” are not guaranteed, and as right as the Fickell hire feels, his Bearcats again have to prove that, in a conference full of up-and-comers, they can again be one.

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junker-town · 7 years

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Can Kent State football save Paul Haynes’ job in 2017? Ehhhhhhhh ...

Five years after one glorious season, the Golden Flashes are still searching.

I was about 50 words into the intro for this piece, marveling at Kent State’s near bid into a BCS bowl five years ago, until I realized I had already written the same intro last year.

It remains one of the more incredible outlier moments in football's recent history: In 2012, Kent State was an overtime away. The winner of the MAC Championship between 11-1 NIU and Kent teams was a de facto play-in.

Darrell Hazell, only in his second year, had inherited a team that just hadn't been able to get over the hump. The Golden Flashes finished 5-7 in each of Doug Martin's last two years and hit five wins again in Hazell's debut. But now that the offense truly had a pulse, the program took a huge step forward.

NIU survived in overtime; the Huskies advanced to the Orange Bowl, where they trailed Florida State by just seven heading into the fourth quarter but faded and lost, 31-10. Kent State lost Hazell to Purdue and lost the GoDaddy.com Bowl to Arkansas State.

There was magic, and Kent State has been trying to recapture it ever since.

The margins in coaching are so small that sometimes you can’t even see them. Successful and unsuccessful coaches do so many of the same things that sometimes it’s hard to know why something didn’t work. And when something does work, it’s hard to know why it stops a month later.

Over the last six years — two at Kent State and four at Purdue — Hazell’s record is 25-43. He began 6-8, ripped off 10 consecutive wins, then went 9-35. He didn’t suddenly become a worse coach the moment that win streak ended.

Similarly, Kent State wasn’t fundamentally any different during its magical 2012 than it was before or after. But in the 33 seasons before that fleeting run, the Flashes averaged 2.9 wins per year. In the four since, they’ve averaged three.

The school hired Hazell because of his TresselBall experience; the 25-year (at the time) veteran had spent the seven previous years at Ohio State as Jim Tressel’s receivers coach. His ball-control tendencies translated well, so when Hazell took the Purdue job, Kent attempted to follow the same script, replacing him with ... a 20-year veteran who had spent seven seasons at Ohio State.

Hazell couldn’t replicate his magic at Purdue, and Haynes hasn’t come anywhere close to Hazell’s brief success.

Haynes is a Kent State graduate, and aside from one year with the Jacksonville Jaguars and one year at Arkansas, his entire career has taken place within the MAC/Big Ten footprint. He appeared custom-built to bring success to Kent.

Haynes’ contract runs through 2017, and ... that appears to be the reason he still has a job. After a Football Scoop report that Haynes and Kent State were “expected to part ways” following another three-win season, athletic director Joel Nielsen responded with this:

A report made earlier today was erroneous and irresponsible. Paul Haynes is our head football coach. #GoFlashes

— Joel Nielsen (@KSUFlashesAD) December 5, 2016

And that was that. Haynes gets a fifth year.

Aside from a 10-game blip, Kent State has been one of the steadiest programs in the country, for all the wrong reasons.

Is there anything Haynes can do to change this trajectory? The answer basically comes down to whether there’s anything he can do about the offense. Haynes’ defenses have been generally solid. His offenses, generally miserable.

2016 in review

2016 Kent State statistical profile.

Technically, the Kent State offense improved. After fielding in 2015 what was, per S&P+, the nation’s second-worst offense of the last 12 seasons (the only team with a worse rating since 2005: 2006’s 0-12 FIU), the Golden Flashes improved to merely bad on offense.

But they were creatively bad, at least.

Thanks to injury and ineffectiveness, four quarterbacks threw at least 15 passes each, and a fifth — QB-turned-WR Colin Reardon — threw three.

Nick Holley ended up with 868 passing yards, 1,038 rushing yards (omitting sacks), and 135 receiving yards, one of the strangest stat lines you’ll ever see. He spent the first month as a skill position guy, rushing 13 times and catching 13 passes. Thanks to injury, he moved to quarterback in Week 5 and won MAC East player of the week honors, rushing for 117 and throwing for 285 against Akron.

True freshman walk-on running back Justin Rankin led the team ... in receptions.

Creativity counts for something, and Kent proved it was willing to get weird. But considering the number of signal callers (and the fact that one of them, Holley, was a junior who hadn’t played quarterback since high school), it comes as no surprise to learn the Golden Flashes had the worst passing game in the country. Consequently, that meant brief excitement when Holley took over, then a return to normalcy.

First 4 games (1-3) — Avg. score: Opp 32, Kent 19 | Avg. yards per play: Opp 4.8, Kent 4.1 | Avg, percentile performance: 26%

Next 2 games (1-1) — Avg. score: Kent 36, Opp 26 | Avg. yards per play: Kent 6.3, Opp 5.5 | Avg, percentile performance: 44%

Last 6 games (1-5) — Avg. score: Opp 28, Kent 17 | Avg. yards per play: Opp 5.4, Kent 4.8 | Avg, percentile performance: 30%

The typically solid defense held Penn State and Alabama to a respectable 5.7 yards per play in September but faltered a bit in MAC play. Still, the Flashes allowed 24 or fewer points in five of nine games against non-top-40 teams. That should be enough to win more than three games.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Coaching is like bailing sand sometimes — you address one issue, and another slips through your fingers. In last year’s Kent State preview, I noted that the Flashes’ biggest problem in 2015 may have been run efficiency, and that to improve from worst-in-FBS status, “it's clear that Kent will have to actually be able to run a little bit.”

Kent State could! Don Treadwell’s offense improved from 120th to 81st in Rushing S&P+. In theory, that helped to create far more third-and-manageable situations.

Unfortunately, either freshmen or converted running backs were throwing, and the Flashes fell from 124th to 128th, dead last, in FBS passing. Kent quarterbacks completed just 50 percent of their passes (despite frequently dumping the ball to running backs out of the backfield, no less) and topped a 111 passer rating just twice against FBS defenses. The result: an offense that was still drastically inefficient, and not in an “all-or-nothing” way.

The first step toward addressing Kent’s new biggest problem: Get everyone healthy. Justin Agner won the starting quarterback job as a true freshman and got hurt in the season opener against Penn State. Redshirt freshman Mylik Mitchell took over, then broke his wrist against Alabama. And when Holley got hurt and missed the season finale, it was George Bollas’ turn.

Be it with Holley, Mitchell, Agner, Bollas, or an incoming freshman like three-star Dustin Crum, continuity would mean a ton. It’s hard for QB-to-WR rapport to build if the QB is changing every week.

Fix your quarterback issues definitively, and you can move to the next issue: Does Kent have any receivers? Leading wideout Ernest Calhoun and tight end Brice Fackler are gone, leaving slot man Raekwon James and a set of returning backup options who were less than impressive last year. Starting X receiver Johnny Woods caught just six of 23 passes for 48 yards — an almost inconceivable 2.1 yards per target — and sophomores Kavious Price, Mike Carrigan, and Trey Harrell combined for 42 targets, 23 catches, and 198 yards. Be it because of the quarterbacks or receivers, those numbers are gross. No wonder so many passes were directed at the running backs.

The passing game might not have to be good to free up space for an interesting run game. Holley is a unique weapon who averaged 5.7 yards per non-sack carry, and Mitchell was averaging a decent 4.8 per carry pre-injury. Meanwhile, three sophomores (Rankin, Will Matthews, part-time running back Kavious Price) flashed serious explosiveness, albeit through freshman-level efficiency.

Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Rankin

Treadwell is throwing everything he can think of against the wall to see what sticks. He has a ton of mighty-mite guys — Rankin and James are 5’9, Matthews is 5’7, Price is 5’6, and Holley is a towering 5’10 — and tries to get them the ball in different areas of the field. There’s enough experience and versatility here to make things interesting, but you need your quarterback to actually deliver a ball downfield and a receiver to actually catch it.

Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Raekwon James (24) and George Bollas (2)

Defense

Kent State’s offense improved enough in 2016 to make opposing offenses work a little bit harder. Opponents had been able to stay rather vanilla in 2015, and a talented Kent State defense was able to take advantage. The Golden Flashes ranked 19th in Def. S&P+, allowing just 4.9 yards per play and giving up more than 6 per play just three times.

Those numbers slipped a bit, but only so much. Kent still allowed only 5.2 yards per play but fell to 65th in Def. S&P+. As with 2015, the pass defense was aggressive and exciting, but run defense remained an issue.

So was fatigue; after allowing 5 yards per play over 69.8 snaps per game through nine contests, those averages rose to 5.7 and 87, respectively, and the Flashes allowed at least 31 points in each of those games. A 42-7 loss to 4-8 Bowling Green was humbling, and it isn’t a coincidence that Kent played these three games without star safety Nate Holley.

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Juantez McRae

At first glance, the balance could shift. Coordinator Ben Needham’s defense returns three of its top four tackles (including senior Jon Cunningham) and a pair of seasoned linebackers in Jim Jones and James Alexander. In theory, the run defense will either hold steady or improve.

The pass defense might have some issues. Star pass rusher Terence Waugh is gone, as are three of the top four safeties (including Holley). Juantez McRae is the only returning safety who recorded more than five tackles last year, and not a single returning defender recorded more than one sack. If you’re making fewer big plays in the backfield and suffering a few more glitches in the back, that is an issue.

There is depth at cornerback, at least. Last year’s top four (Jerrell Foster, Jamal Parker, Demetrius Monday, Darryl Marshall) are all back after combining for six interceptions and 16 breakups (much of which came from Foster).

Still, the edge guys face the burden of proof. End Theo Eboigbe is the default leader at end after recording five tackles for loss, but sophomore end Alex Hoag or a freshman linebacker might need to deliver quickly. The same goes for former three-star recruits like sophomore Akeam Peters, junior Erik Simpson, sophomore Carlos Pickett, or freshman Elvis Hines at safety. The offense might be improving just in time for the defense to further regress.

Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Jon Cunningham (90)

Special Teams

Kent State was really only bad at one aspect of special teams — Shane Hynes’ kickoffs almost never reached the end zone, and the coverage unit was only decent, not great. That resulted in a kickoff efficiency ranking of 115th. Everything else was in the 60s to 80s range, neither strength nor weakness.

Everybody’s back, which is nice, but considering how many tiny speedsters Kent State has, uncovering a couple who can rip off some nice returns would help immensely. Having a mostly neutral special teams unit might be okay when you’re otherwise strong, but Kent could use all the help it can get.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep at Clemson 6 -40.4 1% 9-Sep Howard NR 30.2 96% 16-Sep at Marshall 101 -8.8 31% 23-Sep at Louisville 14 -36.2 2% 30-Sep Buffalo 128 7.0 66% 7-Oct at Northern Illinois 86 -11.7 25% 14-Oct Miami (Ohio) 88 -6.4 35% 21-Oct at Ohio 103 -7.7 33% 31-Oct Bowling Green 95 -4.7 39% 8-Nov at Western Michigan 74 -16.0 18% 14-Nov Central Michigan 97 -4.3 40% 21-Nov at Akron 122 -2.6 44%

Projected S&P+ Rk 123 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 125 / 91 Projected wins 4.3 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -12.1 (113) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 128 / 125 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 11 / 4.3 2016 TO Luck/Game +2.8 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 54% (62%, 47%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 4.1 (-1.1)

The bad news, from an S&P+ (or eyeballs) perspective, is that there’s no reason to believe Kent State will be dramatically better. The cynical/obvious suspicion is that the school kept Haynes around so it didn’t have to pay for a buyout. But you’d like to think there’s still a chance Haynes can move the ball forward.

The good news is that the schedule offers opportunities. (So did last year’s.) If the Golden Flashes can exceed their projections by just a little, the fact that they face five teams projected 101st or worse (not to mention four more between 86th and 97th) could pay off.

There’s not much room for error, though. A quarterback has to both step forward and remain on the damn field. A couple of receivers have to emerge as downfield threats. The run defense has to improve enough to offset regression in pass defense. If those things happen — and, one by one, none is unrealistic — then maybe there’s a path forward for Haynes at his alma mater.

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