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dreaminginthedeepsouth · 10 months

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[The Daily Don]

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LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

June 24, 2023

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

JUN 25, 2023

Yesterday, forces from the private mercenary Wagner Group crossed from Ukraine back into Russia and took control of the city of Rostov-on-Don, a key staging area for the Russian war against Ukraine. As the mercenaries moved toward Moscow in the early hours of Saturday (EDT), Russian president Vladimir Putin called them and their leader, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, traitors. This morning, they were bearing down on Moscow when they suddenly stopped 125 miles (200 km) from the Russian capital. This afternoon the Russian government announced that Belarus president Aleksandr Lukashenko had brokered a deal with Prigozhin to end the mutiny: Prigozhin would go to Belarus, the criminal case against him for the uprising would be dropped, the Wagner fighters who did not participate in the march could sign on as soldiers for the Russian Ministry of Defense, and those who did participate would not be prosecuted.

Prigozhin said he turned around to avoid bloodshed.

U.S. observers don’t appear to know what to make of this development yet, although I have not read anyone who thinks this is the end of it (among other things, Putin has not been seen today). What is crystal clear, though, is that the ability of Prigozhin’s forces to move apparently effortlessly hundreds of miles through Russia toward Moscow without any significant resistance illustrates that Putin’s hold over Russia is no longer secure. This, along with the fact that the Wagner Group, which was a key fighting force for Russia, is now split and demoralized, is good news for Ukraine.

In the U.S. the same two-day period that covered Prigozhin’s escapade in Russia covered the anniversaries of two historic events. Yesterday was the 51st anniversary of what we know as “Title 9,” or more accurately Title IX, for the part of the Education Amendments Act of 1972 that prohibited any school or education program that receives federal funding from discriminating based on sex. This measure updated the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and while people today tend to associate Title IX with sports, it actually covers all discrimination, including sexual assault and sexual harrassment. Republican president Richard Nixon signed the measure into law on June 23, 1972 (six days after the Watergate break-in, if anyone is counting).

Fifty years and one day later, the U.S. Supreme Court issued the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that recognized a woman's constitutional right to abortion. That is, a year ago today, for the first time in our history, rather than expanding our recognition of constitutional rights, the court explicitly took a constitutional right away from the American people.

The voyage from Title IX to Dobbs began about the same time Nixon signed the Education Amendments Act. In 1972, Gallup polls showed that 64% of Americans, including 68% of Republicans, agreed that abortion should be between a woman and her doctor—a belief that would underpin Roe v. Wade the next year—but Nixon and his people worried that he would lose the fall election. Nixon advisor Patrick Buchanan urged the president to pivot against abortion to woo antiabortion Catholics, who tended to vote for Democrats.

As right-wing activists like Phyllis Schlafly used the idea of abortion as shorthand for women calling for civil rights, Republicans began to attract voters opposed to abortion and the expansion of civil rights. In his campaign and presidency, Ronald Reagan actively courted right-wing evangelicals, and from then on, Republican politicians spurred evangelicals to the polls by promising to cut back abortion rights.

But while Republican-confirmed judges chipped away at Roe v. Wade, the decision itself seemed secure because of the concept of “settled law,” under which jurists try not to create legal uncertainty by abruptly overturning law that has been in place for a long time (or, if they do, to be very clear and public about why).

So Republicans could turn out voters by promising to get rid of Roe v. Wade while also being certain that it would stay in place. By 2016 those antiabortion voters made up the base of the Republican Party. (It is quite possible that then–Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell refused to permit President Barack Obama to fill a vacant seat on the Supreme Court because he knew that evangelicals would be far more likely to turn out if there were a Supreme Court seat in the balance.)

But then Trump got the chance to put three justices on the court, and the equation changed. Although each promised during their Senate confirmation hearings to respect settled law, the court struck down Roe v. Wade on the principle that the federal expansion of civil rights under the Fourteenth Amendment incorrectly took power from the states and gave it to the federal government. In the Dobbs majority decision, Justice Samuel Alito argued that the right to determine abortion rights must be returned “to the people’s elected representatives” at the state level.

Fourteen Republican-dominated states promptly banned abortion. Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas banned abortion with no exceptions for rape or incest; Mississippi banned it with an exception for rape but not incest; and North Dakota banned it except for a six-week window for rape or incest. West Virginia also has a ban with exceptions for rape and incest. In Wisconsin a law from 1849 went back into effect after Dobbs; it bans abortion unless a woman would die without one. Texas and Idaho allow private citizens to sue abortion providers. Other states have imposed new limits on abortion.

But antiabortion forces also tried to enforce their will federally. In April, Trump-appointed U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk ruled that the Food and Drug Administration should not have approved mifepristone, an abortion-inducing drug, more than 20 years ago. That decision would take effect nationally. It is being appealed.

When the federal government arranged to pay for transportation out of antiabortion states for service members needing reproductive health care, Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) put a blanket hold on all military appointments—250 so far—until that policy is rescinded. For the first time in its history, the Marine Corps will not have a confirmed commandant after July 10. In the next few months, five members of the joint chiefs of staff, including General Mark Milley, its chair, are required by law to leave their positions. Tuberville says he will not back down.

On June 20, Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY), chair of the House Republican conference, called for a federal abortion ban at 15 weeks, saying that the right to life “is fundamental to human rights and the American dream” and calling out the justices who decided Roe v. Wade as “radical judges who frankly took the voice away from the American people…. The people are the most important voices” on abortion, she said.

But, in fact, a majority of Americans supported abortion rights even before Dobbs, and those numbers have gone up since the decision, especially as untreated miscarriages have brought patients close to death before they could get medical care and girls as young as ten have had to cross state lines to obtain healthcare. Sixty-eight percent of OB-GYNs recently polled by KFF said Dobbs has made it harder to manage emergencies; 64% say it has increased patient deaths. A recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows that 80% of Americans—65% of Republicans and 83% of independents—oppose a nationwide ban on abortion while only 14% support one. Fifty-three percent of Americans want federal protection of abortion; 39% oppose it.

In politics, it seems the dog has caught the car. The end of Roe v. Wade has energized those in favor of abortion rights, with Democrat-dominated states protecting reproductive rights and the administration using executive power to protect them where it can. Republicans are now running away from the issue: the ad-tracking firm AdImpact found that only 1% of Republican ads in House races in 2022 mentioned abortion.

At the same time, antiabortion activists achieved their goal and stand to be less energized. This desperate need to whip up enthusiasm among their base is likely behind the Republicans’ sudden focus on transgender children. Right-wing media has linked the two in part thanks to the highly visible work of the American College of Pediatricians, which, despite its name, is a political action group of about 700 people, only 60% of whom have medical degrees. (They broke off from the 67,000-member American Academy of Pediatrics in 2002 after that medical organization backed same-sex parents.) They are prominent voices against both abortion and gender-affirming health care.

In Nebraska in May, a single law combined a ban on abortion after 12 weeks and on gender-affirming care for minors. “This bill is simply about protecting innocent life,” Republican state senator Tom Briese said.

Vice President Kamala Harris has made protecting reproductive rights central, traveling around the country to talk with people about abortion rights and pressing the administration to do more to protect them. At a rally in Washington, D.C., on Friday, she articulated the message of fifty years ago: “We stand for the freedom of every American, including the freedom of every person everywhere to make decisions—about their own body, their own health care and their own doctor,” she said. “So we fight for reproductive rights and legislation that restores the protections of Roe v. Wade. And here’s the thing. The majority of Americans are with us, they agree.”

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LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

#heather cox richardson #letters from an american #women's rights #russia #abortion rights #health care #Election 2024

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mariacallous · 1 year

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Recent satellite images of Belarus show newly carved forest roads and the movement of a slow stream of military equipment to Ukraine’s northern border. Many experts take it as a sign that Belarus is likely to be the next front in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The arrival of new equipment, together with a recent “counterterror” operation and snap inspection of troops organized by the Belarusian military, has made the Ukrainian government worried that a new offensive could be launched from the north early next year.

Belarus, a country often described as Europe’s last dictatorship, has largely kept its military out of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but there are growing signs that may soon change. There has been an increase in trains transporting soldiers and equipment from the Russian border to the town of Brest in southwestern Belarus close to the border with NATO member Poland. According to the Russian Interfax news agency, Russian troops in Belarus will soon conduct tactical exercises.

Artyom, a former lieutenant colonel with Belarusian special operations forces who defected to Europe, spoke with Foreign Policy on the condition of anonymity from his country of asylum. He said deploying Belarusian troops to Ukraine would be a gamble for President Aleksandr Lukashenko. “Lukashenko is doing his best not to send the military to Ukraine. He understands that the only people who can keep him in power are the military and security services. If they go to Ukraine, they will either die or get wounded, and that could be a disaster for him,” he said. “He claims that ‘Poland plans to attack us,’ so we need to put a military on our border. He is, however, at the mercy of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin.”

Most agree that Lukashenko is reluctant to send his own troops to fight in Ukraine due to his precarious security situation at home following a series of mass protests in 2020 that were brutally repressed and led to mass political arrests. Hanna Liubakova, a Belarus expert and nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council, said losing troops in Ukraine could create instability for Lukashenko in Belarus.

“Losing troops will build discontent in the country. We know through surveys that there is a large section of society against deployment of troops to Ukraine. It is hard politically to justify it,” she said. “The Belarus army consists of conscripts, young men who are not in high positions. They’re not motivated to fight. If their bodies come back to Belarus, it could start protests. It is hard to gauge how big they would be, but it would be a destabilizing factor for Lukashenko.”

Estimates of the number of troops currently at the border vary wildly, but Ukrainian security sources say they are preparing for more than 30,000 troops, including Russian reinforcements. Liubakova said Belarusian forces are a fraction of that figure. “At the beginning of the war, we had several battalions that were combat ready, and they totaled close to 10,000. Obviously, this is not enough to damage Ukraine, but for Lukashenko, losing those could be a problem,” she said.

Telegram channels set up by Belarusian transport workers are currently mapping the movement of soldiers and equipment to the Polish border. According to one widely read group, on one day last week 310 soldiers, along with equipment, were transported to Brest from the northeastern city of Vitebsk, about 60 kilometers from the Russian border. Meanwhile, satellite images show the movement of military vehicles through newly cut zig-zagging roads in another forested border region. This has worried Kyiv, which believes more than 20,000 Russian troops could mix with Belarusian battalions to form a new front.

According to Artyom, among the central motivations for Belarusian soldiers to remain in the military is explicit pressure by the government. “There were rumors that passports will be taken away from the military,” he said.

Vadzim Kabanchuk, deputy commander of the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment—a regiment of Belarusian volunteers under the Armed Forces of Ukraine—believes Belarus will soon enter the war. “Eight out of 10 people in the military do not want to fight in this war. If they enter Ukraine, the military will fall apart. They will surrender—either by going to prison, or they will defect to our side. Lukashenko knows this, so he is trying to avoid it. That said, I think that the conflict will be escalated further outside of his control, including full mobilization and the involvement of Belarus’s military,” he said.

Despite this, the heavily mined border region will be difficult for Belarusian troops to cross without high casualty figures, and some claim that the buildup is part of a strategic information operation to distract Kyiv with a new front as the country continues to battle Russian troops in the south and east of the country.

Liubakova said that, despite the continuing buildup of troops, an immediate attack is unlikely but possible. “I think this is an information operation organized by Russia, and this is how the regime is helpful. They’re working on this with Russia,” she said. “I don’t think the immediate attack is possible because there are not enough troops ready to attack. But again, a lot of people got it wrong last February, and for Putin, gaining Kyiv is the most logical point from a military perspective. The fastest way to get to Kyiv is through Belarus.”

A November intelligence report by the British Ministry of Defense reported that two MiG-31K Foxhound interceptor jets were likely parked at the airfield in Machulishchy, in southern Minsk. There have been reported sightings in the region of a canister that’s believed to hold the Russian air ballistic missile Kinzhal (dagger), the crown jewel of the MiG-31K arsenal. The British Ministry of Defense believes the canister is part of an information operation announcing Belarus’s increased involvement in the war.

One certain loser in the new offensive is Lukashenko, whose delay in sending troops has afforded him a certain favor with his own people that could sour quickly if trucks bearing the notorious “Cargo 200” sign—used for corpses—arrive in Belarus back from the front.

For Artyom, who is one of a handful of high-level defectors from Belarus, it’s easy to see how joining the war in Ukraine could create chaos for Europe’s last dictator. There is a large amount of support for Russia inside the army but also a lack of motivation to fight for Putin.

“They are being told that [Russia’s war crimes] are part of psychological warfare. Some believe in what Lukashenko says. Many of these guys never left Belarus or, in the best-case scenario, went on military training exercises in Russia,” he said. “Many support Russia, but no one wants to fight for them. They know it is not their war.”

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unhonestlymirror · 26 days

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I quarrelled with mom again. She said she loved the song "Can I go with you" by AP$ENT. I've told her that if a Belaruthian singer wants to be perceived as Belaruthian, he should 1)introduce his music to foreign services and not russian like Yandex (since russian work in a nazi country and promoting yourself there is 1)not safe, 2)pointless, 3)stupid), 2)start singing in Belaruthian language. Mom called me heartless. "Did you know that his girlfriend was sentenced to years in prison by Lukashenko? And that's why she had to run away from the country. That's also why that singer, her boyfriend, ran away with her and eventually wrote this song." I knew it already. My position still didn't change. I don't know Belaruthian really well myself, but it doesn't prevent me from speaking it. However, I shouldn't have started this conversation. After all, it's mom, who had to experience almost the same thing, not me, as that singer. I shouldn't decide for her what Belaruthian culture is and what is not.

#Belarus #Belarusian #Belaruthian music #беларускі тамблер

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taiwantalk · 9 months

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I started to follow ukraine more right about euromaidan. prior to that, I only knew that on a few occasions, ukrainian parliament, rada, was being compared with taiwan’s law makers for physical fights.

in hindsight, brave people of ukraine must have known that the final betrayal had happened with yanukovych and they’re looking at the obvious emergence of ukrainian version of lukashenko, putin’s autocratic puppet.

time was running out and nothing short of fully committed protest was the only way to stop yanukovych to unilaterally force ukraine to become part of russian federation.

this latter part is the most important point that someone needs to articulate to zelenskyy and anyone who need to explain why nato has nothing to do to provoke russia’s hostility.

russia had long been orchestrating to take over ukraine. united states had long quit any type of hostilities with mexico since mexican-american war.

btw, it was mexico that invaded america in the attempt to take back texas annexation. and northern texans originally were welcomed by mexican govt to immigrate to texas from United States for tax revenue and to overcome economic hardship after mexico defeated france.

of course americans had expansionism ambition around that time but none of them were really interested in annexing texas until the mexican govt gave them the ultimate reason to rebel-raising tax.

so in reality, texans in those days were always looking to serve their own interest. go live in mexico to live like a king and then when mexico came to collect, them texans went cry uncle to United States. and guess what, originally United States didn’t do anything.

Until, well, it’s all very convoluted from that point on, mostly because of wanting to preserve slavery.

So can people imagine what it’s like to have russian military bases?

only if you start by imagining america try to force mexican president to sign away mexico to become a colonial state of america and then america has a dictator to designate a puppet dictator to run mexico for 20 years.

#ukraine #russia #taiwantalk

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gaykarstaagforever · 10 months

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Wagner update:

We don't get reliable information out of the Putinverse and there are new rumors and suppositions every day, but

It seems that right now, Prigozhin went from being in Belarus briefly to being back in St. Petersburg, and isn't facing any charges. And Belarus offered Wagner fighters an old Soviet army camp there, and they were supposed to move there, but just haven't, and are still in Ukraine. I guess still active in the war. I assume the soldiers who marched on Moscow with Prigozhin just...went back there? And haven't faced any charges either.

Meanwhile there has been a purge of some kind of people in the regular army, eliminating anyone who supported Prigozhin's rebellion.

There are also rumors that Putin wants Prigozhin assassinated but Putin wants everyone to think he is that sort of guy so it doesn't mean much. Like, sure. But if he hasn't done that already, he clearly has other plans for this.

My guess is that Prigozhin's Rebellion actually worked the way he intended. It made the point that the regular army needs to support Wagner in their racist war-crimes that are the invasion of Ukraine. Putin had sided with the generals against Wagner, but when Prigozhin refused to roll over for them, Putin suddenly realized how valuable Wagner and Prigozhin is to this thing he started and can't end. Even if they remain an independent militia, he goddamn needs them. Because the regular Russian army is dogshit. The WHOLE THING was that Wagner was supposed to submit to regular army command; Prigozhin refused. It was never an anti-Wagner thing until Prigozhin told the generals to go fuck themselves.

This really was a slap-fight between competing Russian military contingents that Putin let get out of hand. And now he's stepped up to sort it out. Yes, Prigozhin pissed him off with the rebellion, but Prigozhin has the loyalty of his guys and Putin needs those guys. So Prigozhin is probably safe until Putin can figure out how to replace him with someone else. Which could be tricky since the Wagner guys are in large part personally loyal to Prigozhin.

The regular army goons who backed Prigozhin involved themselves in this shit and aren't vital to the war effort (because they are toadie fuck-ups in general), so Putin has to get rid of them: they can't be trusted to sit still and shut up when the rowboat flips over.

The Lukashenko connection here was either a plot by Putin to get Prigozhin to settle down for a minute so they could talk, or maybe Lukashenko legit offered to mediate and Putin took advantage of it. Either way, it provided a show method of diffusing the situation and making Putin look more secure than he is. And it was certainly never more than that.

I don't think Putin is at actual risk of losing power. All of these factions seem pro-Putin, because they are all rabid Russian Supremacists who want to rebuild the Soviet Union, but with more them building giant mansions. And that is all Putin is. Where he's at risk is losing control of the various competing factions of the military. These guys already get away with siphoning money off into secret bank accounts and being creative about when and how they follow orders. They are more gang members than soldiers. Putin has to continuously balance out heavy-handed control of them and letting them get away with shit so they think they are "with" him and stay loyal. Like a mob kingpin has to do. Because Russia has been a mobocracy since Putin took power. That's how he runs things.

This whole mess was basically a mafia civil war. It exposes Putin's weaknesses. That could potentially put him at risk NOW, if someone realizes the old man is slipping. But I still think they all still need each-other to do whatever it is they are all jointly failing at. Putin is safe until someone stronger stands up, and Putin still seems good at cutting those guys down. And Prigozhin had no interest in being that guy in the first place.

#russia #putin #ukraine #wagner #yevgeny prigozhin #belarus #russian civil war

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militantinremission · 10 months

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The Wagner Affair: Russian Coup or Putin Chess Move?

Listening to Mainstream Media, one may get the impression that Vladimir Putin faces internal issues, on top of Global pressure from NATO. An ongoing dispute between Putin & Yevgeny Prigozhin regarding 'military tactics' in Ukraine led up to The Wagner Group breaking ranks w/ The Russian Army & marching on Moscow. They quickly crossed the border & commandeered strategic positions in Rostov- On- Don, a Russian City on the Southern Ukrainian Border. As fast as the news broke, reports of this 'mutiny' were changing.

New Reports now say that Wagner Troops were standing down & returning to Base. Meanwhile, Wagner Leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin has been 'exiled' to Belarus in a deal brokered by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko. The claims of Treason, & of a possible Russian Civil War are being downplayed. Secretary Of State Anthony Blinken paints a picture of a weakened Putin, but are there chinks in the Russian Armor? During this public 'spat' Vladimir Putin allowed Prigozhin to disseminate narratives on Social Media that were not only critical of his Defense Minister, but also critical of Putin's premise of NATO involvement & removing Nazis in Donbas.

News Analysts are saying that Prigozhin was making a Power Move on the Russian Military. Apparently, Prigozhin was against incorporating his Troops into the Regular Russian Army, so he made a play for Military Leadership. These Analysts question how Wagner Troops were able to get as close as 2 Hours away from Moscow, w/o internal help. Clayton Morris of 'Redacted' reported a coincidence regarding The Pentagon's $6.2B Valuation Error in Ukraine, less than 72 Hours before this 'mutiny'. He suggests a Maidan Style Revolt in Russia, orchestrated by NATO.

I assume the $6.2B was used to buy Players in this 'Coup'? Prigozhin is obvious, but I figure other Oligarchs were involved. Ukrainians are asking why the Mission was abandoned just a couple of hours later(?) In the 'Redacted' Newsstory, it is suggested that NATO was monitoring Prigozhin's Social Media activity, but Vladimir Putin anticipated this. Both Clayton Morris & Andrew Bustamante believe that the drama between Putin & Prigozhin was scripted. How else do you explain Putin letting a 'Traitor' & 'Backstabber' go into Exile- after abandoning him on the Battlefield? Vladimir Putin has pursued individuals Around The World for less.

Andrew Bustamante suggests that we're witnessing a redeployment of Wagner's 25,000 Soldiers to Belarus. They will join the 30,000 Regular Russian Soldiers already deployed there. Bustamante suggests they are poised for an assault on Kyiv. Belarus' Southern Border is not far from the Ukrainian Capital, & is accessible by Land & by River. I don't see why Putin would want to attack Kyiv; he always stressed the Donbas Region as his focus. Another Line of Thought is, Vladimir Putin manipulated Yevgeny Prigozhin's Social Media activity to determine Friend from Foe. NATO gets an illusion of a weak & fracturing Russia, while Putin gets to strengthen his weak spots.

As Time passes, it looks more & more like this 'Russian Coup' was some type of exercise. It was Over as fast as it Begun. Wagner Troops were initially ordered to return to their Mobile Base. We have to see if they're deployed to Belarus, to reunite w/ their 'exiled' Leader... Anthony Blinken made his rounds on the Sunday News Shows, painting a narrative of a toothless Russia collapsing on itself. What We keep discovering, is how Russia continues to stay at least one step ahead of America & NATO.

Regarding Yevgeny Prigozhin & the global operations of The Wagner Group, We have to see what happens. The West is anticipating the worst- Wagner Troops running amok in Afrika & Arabia, like Turks & Kazars. Is Prigozhin still in charge? I have some concern for the actions of Wagner Troops in Afrika, but Russia & Ukraine is an ancient argument that is None of My Business... I'm more interested in Poland's treatment of South Afrikan President, Cyril Ramaphosa, on his way to Kyiv- They would NEVER endanger a European Leader's Safety like they endangered President Ramaphosa's.

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meret118 · 10 months

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The head of the private Russian military force Wagner said Saturday he has ordered his mercenaries to halt their march on Moscow and retreat to their field camps in Ukraine to avoid shedding Russian blood.

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The announcement followed a statement from the office of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko saying that he had negotiated a deal with Prigozhin after discussing the issue with Putin. Prigozhin agreed to halt the advance in a proposed settlement that contains security guarantees for Wagner troops, Lukashenko’s office said. It didn’t elaborate.

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Did they pay him to go away?

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amerasdreams · 2 years

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Yesterday I was telling mom about the air strikes in Ukraine. She hardly knows what's going on bc she stays away from the news in general bc its stressful.

She thought Russia was to the north not east and south. It is to the north but also east and south-- it's huge. I told her Belarus was to the north and she was like what-- haha that's a real country??! She asked several times its name.

To be fair, before war I didn't know where Belarus was, just generally to west bordering russia. I did know about it tho since 2020 protests. Ridiculous and awful dictatorship of Lukashenko.

When I was in college, I went to the cafeteria w my friend from Hong Kong. There were other friends of hers from Asia there. For some reason central Asia came up and I listed the names of the countries. They laughed, idk... part of it was they were amazed an American knew about these countries I think. (Or maybe I was saying them wrong idk)

Anyway I've always been interested in other countries and global events. So maybe I know more than the average American idk.

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fihhockeycup · 2 years

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Upcoming Men's FIH Hockey World Cup Will Arrange more Aggressive

Indian female hockey squad defence Deep Grace Ekka says competing against teams that are strong within The Netherlands during the upcoming away portion in the FIH Pro League could help the team adjust to the environment and make preparations for the World Cup in July.

India is scheduled to take on Belgium, Argentina, Netherlands and the United States this month at the FIH Hockey Pro League.

The moment that Russian Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine just four days after the "Russian Olympic Committee" (ROC) fell short of winning the gold medal game of the ice hockey for men at the 2022 Winter Olympics, the consequences went beyond the doping scandal Ukraine's athletes have faced in recent times.

In the event that the ROC team fell to Finland in Beijing this past February or four years ago at the time the "Olympic Athletes from Russia" took home gold, nobody believed in the truth regarding who these athletes were and what they actually represented. It was despite being banned from wearing flags or uniforms bearing the Russian flag or uniform because of sanctions that were imposed following the McLaren Report revealed evidence of Doping by the government in the country.

This year this year, the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) has gone a step furtherin banning Russia as well as Belarus from participating in any competitions. The event in Finland begins on Friday.

"We were incredibly shocked to see the images that have come out of Ukraine," IIHF President Luc Tardif said in a statement that announced the move back in February. "I have been in close contact with the Ice Hockey Federation of Ukraine, and we hope for all Ukrainians that this conflict can be resolved in a peaceful way and without the need for further violence," Tardif added.

The IIHF's decision to ban the two nations came with lightning speed compared to how it conducted itself during the previous World Championship. It took several weeks for the organization to make the decision to revoke Belarus the right to host the event as a result of the bloody actions of powerful politician Alexander Lukashenko's arrest of protesters against his controversial reelection August of 2020.

The IIHF has also taken away Russia's option to be the host for this year's World Juniors and followed that up by denying it the men's World Championship, which was scheduled to be held by Vladimir Putin's home town, St. Petersburg.

For this first time in a long time the hockey fan will be able to be able to watch the World Championship that from a pure sporting perspective will only be weakened due to the absence of an Russian entry, claims Szemberg.

"It has a substantial sporting impact, which is obvious as Russia is one of the leading hockey nations," the official said. "One perennial medal contender will not play. This is like, say, the FIFA World Cup without Germany or Brazil."

"We have a busy schedule ahead of us in the lead-up to the FIH Hockey Women's World Cup 2022, and we are looking forward to it because the more games we play against the stronger teams, the better prepared we will be for the tournament," Ekka declared in an Hockey India release.

The IIHF's decision is it was the "only reasonable decision," according to Szymon Szemberg who is the director general of the Alliance of European Hockey Clubs (ECH).

"To have Russia in the WM (World Championship) -- with their war of aggression, genocide and war crimes, also adding the very close links between the Russian ice hockey federation, KHL to Putin and the Kremlin -- would have been unthinkable," Szemberg said to DW.

A hockey scholar Andrew Podnieks, who has published more than 100 works on the subject, agrees.

"Politics and sport do go hand in hand," Podnieks stated to DW. "The IIHF cannot help Ukraine win the war. It is a hockey organization, and it is doing the only thing it can do to support Ukraine and to show disgust for the invasion... The morality of sport is far more important than having one team or another compete in an event."

However, Podnieks stresses that by exclusion of the two countries in the IIHF, the IIHF has achieved the best of an unfortunate situation.

"If Russia and Belarus were at the tournament, it would cause a huge controversy and much of the conversation around the tournament would be about their participation," he stated. "By not having them here, it strengthens an event where, because of events, there could be no normal."

Today, Canada (2nd-ranked team) has the opportunity to take the record they share alongside Russia (3rd) in full -- in an event with 16 teams in which Russia replaces 13th-ranked France along with Austria (17th) are set to take to the ice to replace in the place of Belarus (14th).

With no conclusion to the conflict in Ukraine on the horizon One has to ask what the impact of not having Russia in this year's Ice Hockey World Championship will be something that fans have to accept in the future.

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greaatsi · 4 years

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Police brutality in Belarus.

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#ЖывеБеларусь🤍❤🤍

#belarus 2020 #help belarus #police brutality #free belarus #belarus #police #people #peaceful protests #protests #lukashenko go away #lukashenko #world #eastern europe #europe #Жыве Беларусь #освободите Беларусь #Беларусь

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sadatomicponystatement · 2 years

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Putin has started the war with Ukraine(with the help of Lukashenko). A lot of Ukrainians were woken up at 5 am by explosions.

Countries will be holding peaceful protests, here is a list of the ones that I know of with the date and time(the time specified, is the time in that country/state).

If you choose to go to a rally, please remember to stay safe, COVID still exists! And all the Russian's be careful of the police, if you have pets or children leave them with someone, there is a large chance you won't be coming home in the next few days! Wear dark comfortable clothes, that you will be able to run away in!

Here is what I have found so far(I will be updating the post with any information that I've found):

Finland:

26 Feb, 1-3pm - Marsalkka Mannerheiminpatsas, Helsinki.

Spain

25 Feb, 10-13 - near the Consulate of Russia, Barcelona

25 Feb, 2pm - near the representative of the European Parliament on Paseo de Gracia, Barcelona

25 Feb, 6pm - Square Catalonia, Barcelona

Feb 26, 12pm - Plaza Universidad, Barcelona

Feb 27, 12pm - Catalunya Square.

England:

24 Feb, at 5 pm - outside Downing Street(London)

26 Feb at 12 pm - at Russian Embassy in London.

Canada

24 Feb, at 5 pm - Nathan Philips Square(Toronto). Here is a link to a telegram chat of people that are planing to attend it: https://t.me/joinchat/GsW0VAcNhd6XeyjX

24 Feb, 12pm - Vancouver Art Gallery.

Feb 24, 3pm - 15 a Rue Sherbrooke 0, Montreal

USA

24 Feb, at 10 am - 11000 Wilshire Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90024.

24 Feb, 4pm - San Francisco City Hall.

24 Feb, 1 pm - Colorado State Capital.

24 Feb, 12pm - State Capitol Building, Austin, Texas

Feb 24, 4pm - Space Needle, Seattle.

Feb 24, 11 am - The State House, Boston

Feb 24, 1pm - 136 East 67th Street, NYC.

Lithuania

Feb 24, 6pm - Russian Embassy, Vilnius.

Feb 24, 6pm - Unity Square in the City Center, Kaunas.

Feb 24, 6pm - City Center, Klapeida.

Hungary

26 Feb, 4 pm - Russian Embassy, Budapest.

Austria

26 Feb, 3-5pm - Platz der Menschenrechte, Vienna.

Germany

24 Feb, 5pm - Schadowplatz, Düsseldorf

24 Feb, 2pm - Neumarkt, Cologne

24 Feb, 6pm - Schlossplatz(in front of Commerzbank), Stuttgart.

24 Feb, 6pm - Market Square(Markt), Leipzig

27th Feb, 4.30pm - Fishmarkt, Cologne

27 Feb, 4.30pm - Russian Embassy, Berlin.

26 Feb, 6pm - Russian Embassy, Hannover

25 Feb, 6pm - Markplatz, Geldern

27 Feb, 4pm - Roncalliplatz, Köln

25 Feb, 5.30pm - Prinzipalmarkt, Münster

26 Feb, 2pm - Kornmarkt, Nürnberg

Feb 28, 6pm - Saporoshje-Platz, Oberhausen

Feb 25, 4pm - Rathaus, Bielefeld

Feb 25, 3.30pm - Rathaus, Bochum

Feb 26, 2pm - Schadowplatz, Düsseldorf

Here is a link to all the German marches:

Australia

Feb 25, 12pm - Martin Place, Sydney.

March 6, 12pm - King George Square, Brisbane.

New Zealand

Feb 26, 12 pm - at the Octagon, Dunedin

France

Feb 26, 3 pm - Place de la Republique, Paris

Feb 27, 3pm - Place Bellecour, Lyon

Georgia

Feb 24, 7pm - Republic Square, Tbilisi.

Switzerland

Feb 24, 4pm - Bundesplatz, Bern

Feb 26, 12pm - Schützenmatte, Bern

Russia

What to take to the protests:

Feb 24, 7pm - Pushkin Square, Moscow(Пушкинская Площадь, Москва)

Feb 24, 7pm - at Metro Gostiny Dvor, Saint Petersburg (У метро Гостиный двор, Питер).

Feb 26, 1-4pm - intersection of Popov Street and Hohryakov street(Hohryakov street 10 in front of "Palladium), Ekaterinburg./ Перекресток улиц Попова и Хохрякова (во. Хохрякова 10, напротив БЦ "Палладиум") - ЕКБ.

Link to a Twitter thread that has details about upcoming rallies in Russia:

Sweden

27 Feb, 12 pm - Gustaf Adolf Torg, Gothenburg

Greece

24 Feb, 6pm - Syntagma, Athens

Czech Republic

Feb 25, 5pm - The General Consulate of Russia, Brno

A lot more countries/states will be protesting that I've mentioned, these are just the ones that I am aware of. You should be able to find if your city has something organised by Googling in your mother tongue your city and protest/rally/demonstration against war/for Ukraine. A good place to find information will also be Ukrainian Community Groups on Facebook/Instagram/Reddit.

Here are the links to places that have information about some of the rallies:

For Russian Speakers here is a link to a Telegram Channel in which you can see the dates and times for rallies in European Countries:

Map with past and upcoming rallies:

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ketrindoll · 2 years

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Common question I see a lot lately, mostly from Westerners of course, is why such different treatment of Ukrainian refugees vs the ones from the Middle East?

I have selected a few possible explanations. Mind you, this mainly applies to Poland and Lithuania, I cannot speak for other countries, but maybe Slovaks/Romanians/Hungarians will add their own.

1. The demographics of the refugees.

The ones escaping from Ukraine are mainly, with very few exceptions, women and children. From my mom's perspective, who lives alone, she signed up to take in her home a single woman or a woman with a small child. Naturally, everyone feels much safer taking people that are generally considered non-threatening. It's just how it is. Also, out of approx 1000 people 800 are children - both with or without guardians, orphaned before or during the war, or because their parents remained in Ukraine to fight. It's a simple fact that people would always rather take 800 children than a few single men, of whom there was an abundance during 2015 crisis.

2. The cultural familiarity/Lack of language barier.

Thanks (no thanks) to being occupied by Russia, a lot of people in the Eastern Europe speak Russian. I am an independence baby, but I still learned Russian in school as a foreign language and from relatives. Pretty much everyone who have Ukrainian refugees in their homes know russian themselves, so they can freely communicate with their house guests. This is one of the most important reasons in my opinion - naturally you want people in your home to be someone with whom you could at least effectively communicate the point. Knowing their language allows us to relate to them more too. People from Poland and Lithuania often visited Ukraine themselves, it's not a faraway foreign land - it's in our doorstep, and we share common history, too, often being part of the same country. Their food is our food too. The buildings blown away look exactly like ours (again, no thanks to the USSR). When it hits their homes it's not somewhere out there - it feels like seeing your friend and neighbour killed. Many Ukrainians worked in either Poland or Lithuania before, I have two IT colleagues currently in Ukraine. They were always around us. Which brings me to my final point.

3. The attitude/economics.

The way refugees carry themselves shapes general attitude towards them. Unfortunately, as many Eastern Europeans, from Bulgaria all the way up to Estonia, can attest - Syrian refugees did not want to stay in their countries. Their goal was Germany, France, or other rich countries and they did not select their words calling us all poor, nor did they mask their disappointment. Those few bad apples deterred people from wanting to help. That's how political migrants become seen as economic ones. When Lukashenko artificially created a refugee crisis on the Lithuanian/Polish borders it was clear that those were not political migrants. Belarus charged them at least 3000 (and up to 5 digits) for the trip, promising an easy access to the EU. Ukrainians come with nothing. Some who were stuck on holidays abroad literally have a passport and some shorts, as they themselves say. According to International migrant laws, the country that first takes in the refugees has to take care of them. In this case it had to be Belarus, but it wasn't. 2015 also happened because Turkey opened the floodgates, instead of being the one that accepts them all (which is fair enough). That's why most Ukrainian refugees settle in Poland, yet Lithuania also accepts registration out of reasons in 1 and 2. The few migrants from Belarus that actually registered according to the Lithuanian laws were all aiming to go to Germany, with most of them eventually flying back to their countries of origin, because Lithuania made it clear that they would never reach Germany. Apparently, we weren't good enough.

Ukrainians were a complete 180. Some finding jobs before even stepping foot into the country, from knowing people from before the war. The mother with her teenage daughter stayed at my friend's place for maybe 24 hours before moving to another city where the mom found a job in a meat processing factory. There isn't a day where our job-seeker groups on facebook wouldn't have similar posts: former nurse looking for a job in Lithuania, would work as a cleaner; mother with 9month old baby used to work as a graphics designer, looking for a similar job but would do manual labor. Etc etc

Mind you, no one expects them to work. Especially not mothers with small children. These people WANT to be useful. With their husbands fighting, these women want to support their family.

Personally, I was blown away by their tenacity, humility, and high spirits. In fact, people helping refugees tend to get more emotional then they are. All the women I met, all the mothers, were in problem-solving mode from minute one, after having travelled for days. If people want to help themselves, rather than waiting for the help to fall out of the sky, others would want to help them too.

The only bad apples I heard of, though never encountered, were pro-russian refugees. Which made it more awkward than dangerous. We knew there could be agents amongst them, just like there were terrorists among Syrian refugees. That is to be expected. But people's willingness to work, find a job (any job, even it they are overly qualified) impressed us the most. Lets just say, we don't expect any thank yous, but appreciation goes a long way. To know that people like your country - also.

Realized it's long so adding TL;DR:

1. Demographics (mostly if not totally women and children - men usually only as part of the family)

2. Cultural similarities (knowing them pre-war, speaking/understanding the language, common history)

3. Willingness to work, shown appreciation, liking the country (due to 2 probably)

#ukrainian refugees #war in ukraine #russian invasion #refugees #eastern europe #poland #lithuania

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doli-nemae · 2 years

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Hi, folks. Decided to share some info on Ukraine situation. I'm not very good in summarizing this type of stuff, but I'll do my best.

First and foremost, I just want to ask not to post/like/DOANYTHING with post where is shown Ukrainian troops movement. It's a small thing, but it can save lives.

And my apologies, most of the official sources are in ukrainian. I'll try to find translated ones and will update with them.

So, now let's get into it:

At night, Russian Soldiers again bombarded Kyiv. One of the shots were directed into "Antoniv" factory (20 min away my home btw))).

(One of the source because it happened multiple times and KEEPS HAPPENING: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=290879059810759&id=100066660016222&m_entstream_source=timeline)

Russian soldiers tried to capture and loosed Zmijinij Island. When they said our border guards should surrender, border guards literally said "F*ck yourself". Russian soldiers captured island, all 13 guards are dead. Lately this day, island was retaken by Ukrainian forces. Those guards, as any our soldiers, are our heroes and have shown that we won't surrender.

(Source with video with english subs: https://twitter.com/EmineDzheppar/status/1497206485054636037?t=ImR57XCm8jEfQuGIP0r9Cg&s=19)

Diversity group tried to enter Kyiv. Most of them were captured by our troops.

If you think they are attacking only factories and strategicly important object - oh hell no. They are shooting everything and everyone.

They attacked kindergarten in Vorzel city, nearby Kyiv. There was 50 kids and BY THE GOD none were injured.

(Source: https://m.facebook.com/irina.venediktova.31/posts/5253762707969955)

They attacked another kindergarten in city Ohturka. Man who guarded building has died. One worker has been injured and two kids achieved shrapnel wounds. Everyone are at hospital now.

https://t.me/dsns_telegram/3924

A russian tank entered Kyiv. Entered the Obolon quartal where is no strategic objects. There's only shops and people's houses. Tank drove over a car with man, when he tried it block it way. Thankfully, man survived.

(Source: https://youtu.be/cXxOgzTcCnw)

People are gathering resistance in Kyiv and preparing for the worst. Some didn't even leave metro stations - it is used as bombproof. Same for people in Kharkiv.

People are assigning into territorial defense, taking weapons, preparing Molotov cocktails and waiting for Russian troops to come. I would assign too, but my mom would kill me.

And I want to make this one clear because I'm sure some folks will argue about it. It may sound like "ugh, people are using WEAPONS and are going to KILL other people??". Well, folks. These bastards CAME into OUR land. They want us to surrender or die. As you see, we have no intention to do either of these things. So, if you want to be angry at people - be angry at those who attack. Not those who defend.

So, let's continue.

Found a map of current situation. You can change language there if you need to. It's been updated and you can see our situation right now.

https://liveuamap.com/

People are constantly bombarded in Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities. Russian forces has destroyed 80% of city Schastya (ironically, translated as Happiness). Our forces and people are doing incredible work by stopping Russian troops and showing them that they should go back.

Russia started to attack Ukraine from Belarus by the way. United with dictator Lukashenko who has been slaughtering his own people for their wish to CHOOSE a president.

By the way, just wanted to remind ya. We're still. Not. A part. Of. NATO. They haven't closed our airspace YET and I should remind you that Russia is using their aircraft very often and are bombing cities and villages.

Russia is still a part of SWIFT. German, Italy, Cyprus, Hungary and France are against banning Russia from there even though, man, if we'll fall - they will be next. The won't stop on us.

I should say, that Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are supporting this ban and I'm very grateful.

There's a lot of shit hapenning here and it's changing all the time. As I've been writing this, shooting in Kyiv has began. They call us Neo-Nazis, but that's bullshit. Russia has been terrorising our country ling before 2022 and 2014, they just hate us and want us dead. We fought for our independence for hundreds of years and when we achieved it finally, they just can't leave us.

If you're interested in getting more information - here are OFFICIAL information from our government. That's all in ukrainian, but if I'll find accounts with english translation in twitter I'll pin them here.

Presidents office of Ukraine https://www.facebook.com/president.gov.ua

Armoured forces of Ukraine https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

Cabinet of ministers of Ukraine https://www.facebook.com/KabminUA

Defense ministry of Ukraine https://www.facebook.com/MinistryofDefence.UA

Ministry of internal affairs(?) in Ukraine https://www.facebook.com/mvs.gov.ua

National police of Ukraine https://www.facebook.com/UA.National.Police

State ministry of Emergencies(?) in Ukraine https://www.facebook.com/MNS.GOV.UA

State boarder service of Ukraine https://www.facebook.com/DPSUkraine

Center of strategic communications and informational safety https://www.facebook.com/StratcomCentreUA

Ukrainian land forces https://www.facebook.com/UkrainianLandForces

Navy forces https://www.facebook.com/navy.mil.gov.ua

Territorial defense forces https://www.facebook.com/TerritorialDefenseForces

And I've seen people, who wanted to help. Here are some places, where you can donate:

Savelife (they used to have Patreon, but Patreon decided to ban them yesterday just in time when they began to gather a big support. I could spent another hour ranting how hypocritic they are, but I won't take more of your time):

https://savelife.in.ua/

Redcross in Ukraine:

https://redcross.org.ua

National Bank of Ukraine:

https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi

And a petition to ban Russia from SWIFT. It doesn't matter where you're from, so if you want to - here:

https://www.openpetition.eu/petition/online/wegen-angriffskrieg-auf-ukraine-russland-sofort-von-swift-ausschliessen

Please. Don't spread misinformation. We're Not Nazis. We're dying here while Europe waits. If you don't give a shit about us and still think we're fucking neo-nazis think about this: we won't be the last. They won't stop on us. They will conquer everything and will do anything until there's nothing left but devastation and death.

AND SHOULD I EVEN SAY THAT OUR PRESIDENT IS JEWISH??

It's been a hard time. Anyway, thank you if you read it this far and thank you twice if you're sharing legitimate information about us and don't spread myths.

Stay safe. Love you all.

#save ukraine #russia invaded ukraine #war in ukraine #ukraine #russian aggression #ukrainianswillresist #ukrainians will resist #russia #ban russia from SWIFT #I'm still mad from the fact that I still need to remind people we're not nazis #and sorry if i've been rude anywhere - it's really has been the hardest days of my life AND IM NOT EVEN IN KYIV #again thank you a lot guys I KNOW THE LAST THING YOU EXPECTED TO SEE HERE IS A POST ABOUT WAR BUT WELL #once this all is over I'm going to play in Fable for Hours I swear I really could use playing Fable TLC or 2 right now

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itsyveinthesky · 2 years

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Refugee Crisis - New Details Shed Light on Lukashenko's Human Trafficking Network

Insiders reveal fresh details about Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko's inhumane smuggling system, comprised of a network of front companies that spreads to Syria, Turkey and Iraq, secret money transfers and the use of soldiers as traffickers.

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This is probably one of the most comprehensive articles on what’s going on at the Polish/Belarussian border atm and I urge everyone who is interested in the topic to read it.

If you know nothing about the topic at all I also urge you into looking what has been going on in Belarus in the last two years, the protests, the elections, the torture of dissidents, the forced landing of the RyanAir flight etc.

This is a very complex and unique situation and not comparable to the Mexico-USA border issues nor to the situation in 2015.

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Ahead of him, Mhamad can see barbed wire and then Polish soldiers. Their faces are covered and they are armed. When Mhamad looks back, he can see Belarusian soldiers. They, too, are wearing masks and carrying weapons. Whenever Mhamad or his children need to relieve themselves in the forest, they have to pass the men who have taken up positions behind them. Mhamad explains over the phone that the Belarusians give them precisely five minutes to do so. "Don’t run away,” they admonish. "We will find you!”

Mhamad, a married 40-year-old and father of three, isn't interested in running away. He wants to keep going. Mhamad fled the city of Sulaymaniyah in northern Iraq, arriving in Minsk by plane via Dubai with his family in the hope of reaching the European Union and applying for asylum there - without having to risk his life crossing the Mediterranean. Now he’s stuck, trapped at the EU’s external border with his wife and three children. The youngest is less than two years old.

Around 4,000 refugees have been holding out for several days on the Belarusian side of the border fence near the Polish village of Kuźnica. They set off on foot last Monday, walking for miles along the M6 road toward the EU.

It was a march of desperation. Many have tried repeatedly in recent weeks to cross the border into Poland. And they say that Polish officials continually push them back – back into the hands of Belarusian security forces. They claim the Belarusians then take their possessions and force them along the fence, or they take them to other border areas.

Images from Polish military helicopters show the camp on the border. They show people seeking shelter in tents or lean-tos and lighting fires to stave off the cold. At night, the temperatures drop to below freezing. Mhamad sends photos of his shelter, which he built himself using metal parts, wire, green plastic and fir branches. He says the Red Cross has distributed bread, water and blankets - but his youngest child needs baby food.

As Mhamad speaks, the connection keeps breaking off. Loudspeaker announcements from the Polish border guards can be heard in the background. "Attention! Attention!” it screeches. "Crossing the border is legal only at border crossings." But the official border crossing was closed long ago.

At night, blue lights flicker across the border area. Mhamad constantly keeps guard and barely sleeps. He hopes that the people at the fence will remain peaceful, adding that a few tried to tear holes in the border fence and threw stones at Polish soldiers. "We don’t need a fight here – neither with the Poles nor the Belarusians,” Mhamad says. The Belarusian soldiers, he says, fired off warning shots when refugees tried to return to the highway.

For the past several months, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has been flying people in from Turkey and the Middle East. The European Union looked on for too long as the ruler in Minsk issued tourist visas to people willing to flee, thus expanding the new route to the West. Initially, the Belarusians drove them toward Lithuania, but now they are being funneled to the Polish border.

It appears that Lukashenko is retaliating against the EU and the tough sanctions imposed against his regime after the forced landing of a Ryanair passenger jet in May. And the refugees are the perfect tool. There’s nothing right now that creates a bigger panic in the EU than a few thousand asylum-seekers at a border crossing.

In his desire to ratchet up the pressure on Europe, Lukashenko has created a shameful system that now stretches as far as Syria, Iraq and Turkey. A team of DER SPIEGEL journalists spent several weeks reporting in Minsk, Istanbul and along the Polish border. The reporters evaluated flight data and visa documents, interviewed smugglers and middlemen who bring migrants to Belarus for the regime. Their research reveals a smuggling system against which the EU hasn’t yet found a remedy. Every day, hundreds of people land at the airport in Minsk; every day, more and more people push towards the border.

So far, the Polish government has primarily been using force to stop the asylum-seekers. Around 15,000 troops have been deployed along the border, backed up by border guards and then the police. The security forces deploy water cannons and pepper spray.

The EU now has the choice of leaving people to their own devices – or opening up the gates. At least 10 people are reported to have died in the border area in recent weeks. Human rights organizations have long been warning of a humanitarian catastrophe, and believe the death toll could rise into the dozens.

The people arrive as night falls. Young men in tattered sweaters. Fathers and mothers with babies in their arms. They carry everything they have with them in plastic bags or backpacks.

This is when the work begins for Ibrahim. He strolls through the marketplace in Istanbul’s Aksaray district, seemingly aimlessly. At some point, he stops in front of a café with an Arabic name. He recognizes his customers by the look on their faces, and gives them a brief wink.

Ibrahim, 34, fled the war in Syria to Turkey seven years ago. He says he tried twice to get to Greece, but failed both times. Now, he smuggles other people into Europe on behalf of, he says, Turkish mafia groups.

Ibrahim leads the way through a maze of alleys, past exchange offices, kebab stalls and hotels that charge by the hour before taking a seat in a tea garden. Before agreeing to an interview, he insisted that his real name not be mentioned. He doesn’t want his Turkish employers to know he’s talking to a journalist.

Aksaray has been a gathering place for smugglers and refugees for many years. Ibrahim says he used it as a staging ground to smuggle hundreds of people from here to the EU, almost always through Greece.

But the business has changed in recent months. After Greece sealed its borders with Turkey, there were few ways left for refugees to get through. But the route via Belarus to Poland has now opened up, and Ibrahim has adjusted his strategy. Instead of Greece, he is now increasingly sending asylum-seekers to Belarus. He says there have been just under a dozen since the summer, mainly Syrians and Iraqis who are trying to get to Europe. Some, he says, have been living in Turkey for several years, others have just arrived. Turkish aid organizations estimate that several thousand refugees have traveled from Turkey alone to Belarus.

Ibrahim created a series of Facebook and Telegram accounts under fake names, posing as a migrant and enthusing about the journey to the EU via Minsk, the capital of Belarus. "The easiest route to Germany,” reads one page. "To Berlin in five days,” reads another.

Ibrahim's strategy is to build trust. He messages back and forth with the migrants several times before arranging to meet them in Aksaray. He says that by then, the conversations are generally just about finalizing details. How much does the trip cost? When can we go? And where to?

If everything goes smoothly, Ibrahim refers his customers, in return for a commission, to a company disguised as a "travel agency” in Istanbul that in turn works with similar "travel agencies” in Minsk. The Belarusians issue the visas – and the Turks, Syrians, Iraqis and Lebanese handle the business locally. Since the summer, dozens of similar "travel agencies” have sprung up in Istanbul, in the northern Iraqi cities of Erbil and Dohuk, in Beirut, Lebanon, and in Damascus, Syria.

Ibrahim says the Turkish authorities are fully aware of the business, but still tolerate it. On the one hand, you have a mafia that is bribing the police. On the other, you have Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who wants to promote migration to the EU to keep the pressure up on the Europeans. Erdoğan actually did try to pressure the EU into making concessions in the Syria conflict as early as spring 2020 by busing migrants to the border with Greece. Now, Lukashenko is mimicking the tactic.

Initially, any company in Belarus was able to issue visas to migrants from Turkey and the Middle East. Since the end of September, though, only 12 companies have been permitted to do so. At least that’s what the smugglers say. Lukashenko’s regime apparently wants to ensure that it earns enough from the human-trafficking. Smugglers and refugees say the fee for a visa has risen from $1,200 to $1,700 to as much as $2,500, in addition to the cost of a plane ticket, which can be as much as $1,000 on Turkish Airlines from Istanbul to Minsk.

Ibrahim’s work is done once his clients reach Minsk. He says they have to organize the onward journey themselves.

Shimal, 36, sits with a lowered head on a bench in the center of Minsk. He’s from Dohuk in northern Iraq, and he doesn’t know where to take himself and his family. A few meters away, his wife is leaning against the façade of one of the buildings, seeking shelter from the cold wind that sweeps across the pavement. Their son and daughter, three- and five-years-old, kick an empty plastic bottle across a patch of grass.

Shimal had thought he would be in Germany with his family long ago. That’s what the smugglers back in his home country had promised him. But now he is sitting together with his wife and children on the streets of Minsk, without a valid visa or a place to get in out of the cold.

At the end of October, they weren’t the only ones stranded in Minsk. More refugees squat outside the Galleria shopping center. Most, like Shimal, are from Iraq, while others are from Syria.

Backpacks and sleeping bags are piled up on the floor around the migrants. If you try to talk to them for any length of time, men in athletic outfits crowd around and interrupt with provocative questions. Ultimately, they begin issuing threats that you'd better move along or "something will happen."

DER SPIEGEL was one of the last Western media outlets that was still able to work in Belarus at the end of October. Independent international media – as well as critical Belarusian media – are hardly welcome in the country any longer. Dictator Lukashenko has also had dozens of Belarusian journalists arrested.

The reporting now done at the refugee camp on the Polish border near the M6 comes primarily from representatives of the state media. They’re supposed to be documenting how badly Poland treats the thousands of refugees. The Kremlin has demonstratively backed Lukashenko, condemning the "harsh actions of the Polish side toward peaceful people.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has even called on the EU to provide aid to the Belarusian regime.

However, documents viewed by DER SPIEGEL show that it is the Lukashenko regime itself that set up the Belarus route. The state-run company Zentrkurort began issuing dozens of tourist visas to Iraqis in May. The company reports to Lukashenko’s presidential administration. A short time later, the government gradually transferred the visa business to private companies, including Oscartur in Minsk, which first organized entry permits in Iraq and then in Turkey and other Middle Eastern countries. Oscartur is also active in Syria now.

In Minsk, the companies accommodate the refugees mainly in hotels that also have links to Lukashenko’s presidential administration. It's a profitable business: It is estimated that there are currently around 15,000 asylum-seekers in Belarus.

And more people are arriving every day. A representative of FlyDubai reports 200 refugees a day on the airline’s flight from Dubai alone. One employee at the Minsk airport spoke of up to 400 new arrivals a day as early as October.

By now, there are likely to be many more. With the recent introduction of the winter timetable, there are now around 40 connections a week from cities in Turkey and the Middle East. Flights from Istanbul, Dubai, Beirut and now Damascus are all listed. Cham Wings regularly flies to Minsk from the Syrian capital – five times in the first week of November alone, as listed in the FlightRadar24 flight tracker lists.

The demand has become so great that the Belarusian Embassy in Damascus is temporarily no longer accepting visa applications – officially for "technical reasons.” Currently, 2,200 passports are being processed, according to a Facebook post.

The state-run Belarusian news agency Belta has reported that the government in Minsk is planning to add more international flights directly to regional cities in the country as well. Both Grodno and Brest, cities located near the EU border, have airports.

Shimal paid a total of $14,000 at a "travel agency” in Dohuk for himself and his family to fly from Istanbul to Minsk in addition to visas and lodging in a hotel. A friend had put him in contact with the right people. The trip consumed almost all of his savings, plus money from the sale of his minibus. "I’m ashamed that I let myself be deceived like this,” he says, adding that he doesn’t want to go to the border. It's "too dangerous," he says, "especially for the children.”

On the fifth floor of the Galleria shopping center in Minsk, the mood among refugees is tense. Older men walk around with mobile phones, and one is wearing a T-shirt with "Germany” emblazoned on it.

A man who introduces himself in fluent Russian as an Iraqi from Erbil accompanies three Kurds aged 18, 21 and 24 years old. He says he’s helping the men and that he’s been in Minsk for two months. He later admits that he is receiving money for his services. And where did he learn Russian? He went to college in Moscow and was married to a Russian woman, he explains. But he doesn’t want to say any more than that.

The shopping center is an important meeting place for refugees in Minsk. People warm up at one of the round tables next to cafés and a Chinese restaurant, eat fries and chicken from KFC and drink tea.

Some people who just arrived carry bags with sleeping mats, warm clothes and bright new orange sleeping bags with "-25 degrees Celsius” written on them. Others sleep with their heads on the table, with battered backpacks lying on the floor in front of them. They’re asylum-seekers who have already tried four or five times to reach Poland - unsuccessfully.

Many spend several days stuck in the border area until they find a way to get back to Minsk. The refugees often have to pay Belarusian officials hundreds of dollars to let them pass back through.

There are increasing reports of Belarusian security forces forcibly dragging migrants into cars and taking them farther north to the border with Lithuania. Some refugees claim that Lithuanian border guards deliberately used stun guns against them in order to drive them back.

In the meantime, the Belarusian authorities have switched to issuing only group visas with a few days’ validity for the "tourists” from the Middle East. The group visa for Shimal and his family was only valid for eight days. If the travel visa expires, they get kicked out of their hotels.

Those with Middle Eastern features now have to pay more than double for lodging, say Shimal and other refugees. Often, they end up handing over $20 or more per night for a bed in a crowded shared room in a run-down apartment or hostel. Many migrants, though, can’t even afford that and sleep in parks or on the streets of Minsk.

After significant hesitation, Shimal applied with the International Organization for Migration for a return trip to his homeland. And last Thursday, he flew back to Erbil via Dubai. He is afraid. He says he has been threatened because his family had a falling out with his wife’s family. Until the very end, he had hoped that Poland would change its approach and open its border. That outcome, though, still doesn’t appear likely.

It is shortly after 10 a.m. when Franek Sterczewski receives the geocode. He puts on his sunglasses and heads out on this Monday morning, off to the forest. A group of refugees has apparently spent more than two weeks stumbling through the area – which, with its bewildering maze of swamps, presents a greater danger than the border crossing itself.

A 33-year-old with a degree in architecture, Sterczewski went into politics in the hopes of improving Poland’s infrastructure. But ever since Belarus has been sending increasing numbers of people across the border, his focus has shifted to looking after refugees. This is his second trip to the border, and he is joining a group of activists to help those who have made it across into Poland. He is hoping that his presence will mean the people will be given an opportunity to apply for asylum.

The border between Poland and Belarus stretches for 400 kilometers (248 miles). Since August, there have been 30,000 attempts to illegally cross that frontier – far away from the well-guarded border crossings.

The Polish government declared a state of emergency for the region in early September, with the restricted area extending three kilometers from the border. Checkpoints are under military control, and only residents and security personnel are allowed in. Activists say it has become a lawless zone.

One video depicts what frequently happens out of sight of reporters and activists. Masked Polish and Belarusian border guards armed with automatic weapons stand face-to-face across the border. It is a tense standoff, and the two sides are filming each other. The Belarusians push asylum-seekers – men, women and children – over the border to the Polish side, where the Polish border guards refuse to let them through.

But even when groups of refugees make it far into Poland, they still aren’t safe. People have reported over and over again that they are brought back into the forest by Polish border guards and abandoned there.

Even parliamentarians like Sterczewski aren’t allowed into the restricted area. The migrants have to cross the strip either on their own or with the help of locals. Only then can Sterczewski provide his assistance to the exhausted, shivering asylum-seekers.

Sterczewski reaches his destination after one-and-a-half hours, his car turning onto a narrow country road that leads through the thick pine forest. Eight people from Somalia are crouched behind a leafless bush. They aren’t wearing any shoes, even though temperatures in the forest drop below zero at night.

One woman is lying on the ground, gasping for air in a panic. She is suffering from a heart problem, say her companions. The refugee activists who Sterczewski has called give them water, a couple of energy bars and slips of paper reading: "I want asylum in Poland.” The migrants say that they have already been forced back into Belarus by Polish border guards on seven occasions.

It takes about 30 minutes for the border guards to arrive. Four men climb out of the van and one of them strides over to the refugees. He has a round face and friendly-looking blue eyes that harden when he speaks to the asylum-seekers. "How did you get across the border? Illegally or legally?” he yells.

The refugees, sitting on the ground in front of him, stare and him and hesitantly lift their signs. "I want asylum in Poland,” says one of them. "Why didn’t you go to the border crossing where you could have entered Poland legally?” asks the border guard. Sterczewski intervenes: "They know that that is only possible in theory. The Belarusians push them across the border all over the place.” The border guard barks: "I’m asking them, not you.”

Those who have been examined are loaded up, either in the ambulance or in a military truck. The border officials say that the healthy ones are to be brought to a reception center for asylum-seekers. When two medical workers start leading one man toward the ambulance, his eyes fill with tears. "Please, I don’t want to go back,” he says. "I want asylum in Poland.”

When nobody is listening, the border guard says to Sterczewski: "These people are like rocks. The Belarusians throw them over, and we throw them back.”

The national-conservative Law and Justice party, which heads up the Polish government, is doing its best to pose as the guardians of Christendom. "The border is sacred,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki wrote on Facebook early last week. The blood of an entire generation, he wrote, was spilled to defend it, and he accused Lukashenko of waging a "hybrid war” and using the migrants as weapons.

Members of the government have claimed in past comments to reporters that they have found animal pornos and jihadist materials on mobile phones belonging to the asylum-seekers. And Warsaw is planning on building a border wall that will allegedly cost 350 million euros. A model of the wall depicts metal bars over five meters tall topped with razor wire.

The government’s severe approach to the migrants is popular in Poland. In Brussels, meanwhile, many are concerned that it could represent a further erosion of refugee protections. Countries like Greece and Croatia, to be sure, have been conducting illegal pushbacks for the past several years – but most such activities have taken place largely out of the public eye.

Poland is among the first to have dared to legalize pushbacks, and it has been joined by other Eastern European countries. According to Polish law, border guards can decide for themselves if they allow migrants the opportunity to apply for asylum.

It is often the case that refugees are intercepted deep inside Poland, only to be brought back to the border. At that point, according to a German federal police officer, the Polish border guards cut a hole in the fence and push the people through back into Belarus. Polish border personnel have even begun keeping an official count of the "forced departures.”

Both European law and in the Geneva Refugee Convention hold that asylum-seekers who have made it into EU territory have the right to fair asylum proceedings. In Poland, however, this right to asylum has been severely curtailed. As a consequence, members of European Parliament from the Left Party, the Greens, the Socialists & Democrats and some Liberals have been demanding for weeks that infringement proceedings be launched.

The European Commission is examining the relevant laws in the Eastern European countries involved, but has yet to reach a decision. In principle, though, many in the EU welcome the approach being taken by the Polish government. Indeed, a debate has erupted in Brussels as to whether the EU should pay for the new fence on the Polish border.

Opposition politicians in Poland, NGOs and refugee activists are concerned that if the EU doesn’t act, the border could become a death trap in the winter. The swampy forests at the border are among the coldest regions in the country, with snow often piling up to depths of a meter or more and temperatures plunging to minus 20 degrees Celsius. Most migrants move at night, without flashlights, so as not to be intercepted by the border guards. Residents in the region are fully aware of the dangers, and some of them hang green lights on their homes at night as a signal to refugees that they are welcome.

Human rights organizations believe it is possible that some of the 10 people who have thus far died at the border had previously been pushed back into the forest by either Polish or Belarusian border guards. The true number of victims could be even higher. Migrants have reported seeing dead bodies in the border region, though such reports are impossible to verify.

Activists and politicians like Franek Sterczewski want to avoid additional victims, and are distributing extra clothes and power banks. The Polish parliamentarian never calls the official emergency number, fearful that the migrants could then be forced back across the border. And many of them want to travel onward to Germany anyway. Sometimes, the activists see the vans belonging to the human smugglers, who drive around in the border region near the restricted area.

Alaa Halabi, whose name has been changed for this article, is one of the men who drives such a van. DER SPIEGEL reached him by phone.

Halabi says he spent three years taking people from Greece to Austria or Germany. But when the borders were largely closed during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, he quit. There were suddenly too many checks and it grew too dangerous.

When he heard about the new route via Belarus, he says, he called his boss and offered to serve the new passage. Halabi says his boss has excellent connections to the Turkish mafia – and they have solid links to criminal groups in Europe. His boss, says Halabi, agreed, and since then he has again been working as a human smuggler, bringing people from Poland to Germany for $2,000. It takes him about 14 hours to get to the border.

The refugees send him their location, says Halabi, and deposit the money with an "insurance office” in Turkey. Halabi’s boss and the other middlemen work together with around five offices, and only those who deposit their money with an office they trust will be picked up. Once they do, he then calls somebody who knows people at the border, who can say if the refugees are in a safe location or not. Only then will he pick them up, Halabi says.

On the way to Germany, Halabi has to avoid the German federal police. Eight units patrol the German border with Poland, and they pay special attention to vans. They have managed to arrest several hundred human smugglers thus far. Halabi has a friend drive out in front to warn him of controls or roadblocks.

Halabi is only paid once he has brought the migrants to their destinations. They then give him a code with which he can claim the money deposited at the insurance office in Turkey.

That money transfer is the last in a long series of payments. If all goes well, the migrants exchange their savings for the opportunity to start a new life in Germany. But if it doesn’t, they find themselves trapped at the EU’s external border, struggling to survive.

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