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whenitsdarkweilluminate · 4 months

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Rotterdam 2020 – Semi-Final 1

Host: Netherlands Slogan: “Open Up” Participants: 41 Voting method: 12-point system (50/50 system - separated) Format: 2 Semi-Finals / Grand Final = the top 10 of semi 1 & 2 + the Big 5 + host

General Overview:

As we all know, the 2020 contest was canceled because of the pandemic. The timing was very unfortunate - the world turned upside down in mid-March, which is right when the national final season wraps up. The WHO declared the pandemic on March 11, the last song (Russia) was released on March 12, and the cancellation was announced on March 18. It wasn't the news I wanted to hear – I get so excited for Eurovision every year – but obviously everyone's health and safety is more important. I was hoping for a postponement, but it would've been a logistical nightmare, and no one knew how long the restrictions would last. Or even a virtual event, but it would've been unfair to compare performances on different stages with different production values. I doubt the EBU wanted to disappoint the artists, fans, delegations, and everyone else involved; or lose money over this. So canceling was a last resort. Thankfully, they did everything they could to bring the contest back in 2021!

However, this means I have to review the 2020 entries differently. There is no staging to factor in, although the national final performances will inevitably sway me (and I will comment on those). I know it's unfair to compare them because the production values and stages vary by country, and then the internal selections are a mystery (especially if the artist didn't return for 2021). But I'll try to prioritize the studio versions (post-revamp). My 2020 ranking will essentially be a pre-contest ranking; except there's no live shows to shift everything around later on. I will also give my qualification predictions.

Semi-Final 1 is pretty easy to predict though – I'd say there's 8 locked qualifiers, and Romania is also pretty likely. And the last spot either goes to Belgium or Australia. Semi-Final 2 will be much more open.

The number of participants stays at 41, with Bulgaria and Ukraine returning after their one-year absences, while Hungary and Montenegro are out.

Sweden: The Mamas - Move John Lundvik's backing singers are now the headliners! But, just like with “Too Late for Love”, all the personality and emotion comes from the performers, and not the robotic, sterile Swedish composition. The Mamas' harmonies are stellar (“oh-OH-oh-OH LIFE”; “DAMN RIGHT!”; “WE'RE MOVING MOUNTAINS!”) And their uplifting, supportive voices express unconditional love. They turn “Move” into a giant group hug. There's 0 negativity here. The song opens with distorted “uh-ah-ooh”s, a calm piano, and a slam. The piano continues with some squeals; then the bass and snaps come in. The pre-chorus skips around (“evEN whEN the RAIN is FALLing”). Then the chorus slam-stops, pulling back into a hum for a moment, before escalating with claps/pounds. There's another pause, then the bangs run wild, with a bunch of “uh ah ooh”s on repeat. The 2nd chorus claps start earlier. The bridge is almost a cappella – with just claps until the organ appears, leading to a “whoa-oh-ah-oh” vocal climax. And the song ends on a closing slam. The hooks and the shout-out loud chorus are effective. The lyrics promise support and assurance when things turn bad. Why? Because their partner does the same. It's alright if we try and fail; we wipe the tears and become stronger. The chorus uses hyperbolic cliches to show devotion (like moving mountains!) The Melfest staging was simple. It mostly used spotlights. I liked when they leaned during “Damn right!” though. And they brought positive energy and great chemistry.

My fave Melfest 2020 entry was, of course, Dotter's “Bulletproof”, which lost by 1 point! I also loved “Kingdom Come”, “Brave”, and “Ballerina” (robbed). “Boys with Emotions” had a nice message too. The rest of the final was kinda underwhelming though. I also completely forgot about “Carpool Karaoke”. 💀

My prediction: 99% (#12 odds/ #12 scoreboard app). Possibly the SF1 jury winner as well. And considering Sweden's track record from 2011+, this is LOCKED.

Belarus: VAL - Da vidna #StandWithUkraine

Belarus's last entry that wasn't rejected. “Da vidna” sounded weak in the YouTube recaps – the production is too toned-down, especially the “drop”. But it creates a peaceful mood that's kinda mournful and kinda hopeful. The production is very late-2010s electronic. The distorted squeals in the intro are like painful harsh cries. The song also starts with a peaceful piano. The first verse adds soft taps and more distortions, then the snaps and bubbly synths come in. The latter are more apparent at the end of the verse. I also like the rising 'daaaa d-DA-DA' verse melody. The chorus submerges at first with stiff blunt synths and rattling ticks, then the vocals amplify midway, as the beat accelerates into the “drop”, which is this squealing siren. The build-up works for me. Verse 2 keeps the rattling ticks, and the vocals become more intense. And the bridge submerges similarly. In the lyrics, Valeria questions why her mother forced her into a relationship she didn't choose. There's season metaphors – braiding and un-braiding autumn; paths obscured by winter snow. The night is full of secrets and passion. But the song focuses on the dawn, when she'll be free. Hence the peaceful vibe. She also reflects on growing up too fast (a white rose blooming early). The NF performance is fine, but could be more polished. There's twirling hands, hip thrusts, 'okay' hand signs on the eyes, a chain armour thing on Valeria's head, and she gets physically close to the other two members.

My prediction: 25% (#40 odds/ #31 scoreboard app). In such a strong semi-final, this would've been forgotten about. Especially being 2nd in the running order. UNLIKELY.

Australia: Montaigne - Don't Break Me Not even a NF can stop DNA Songs! “Don't Break Me” is an annoying and overproduced song, but at least the lyrics describe a toxic relationship accurately and insightfully. Montaigne's fading romantic feelings are replaced with fear. They feel taken for granted. They've given so much and stretched themselves thin. But, upon the beat switch, they can't take it anymore! They plead “don't break me down”!; because they're made of glass, not elastic! (kind of a silly metaphor). But it seems to fall on deaf ears. Montaigne's partner brings up their own trauma instead hearing them out. Montaigne also says love should be a compromise and equal effort. Only one of them is employed. But Montaigne loves them too much to give up. This song is venting out despair. The first verse moves in anxious cloudy patters and constant guitar pokes, with a few tunnel voices. Then the pre-chorus slams down in this angry, growling, grumbling way that catches me off-guard. But the chorus itself is a let down – it's a boring modern trap-y heavy drum beat, which pauses and sinks back down a couple times. The chorus vocal/melody is really annoying too, and they sing the verses weirdly. Verse #2 starts with a synth warning, before turning trap-y as well. While the bridge is an extended pre-chorus. I don't care for the NF performance either. The camera work and the choreo make me dizzy and Montaigne is dressed like a clown, with a ruffled collar, blue wig, and blush. I guess they're the clown in the relationship. They walk like a marionette at one point. And swing their limbs while being lifted up.

My prediction: 45% (#16 odds/ #14 scoreboard app). They would need to improve the staging and the vocals. It's between Australia and Belgium for the last qualifier spot, and my gut says it's Belgium. BORDERLINE OUT.

North Macedonia: Vasil - You NM's delegation must've been like: “Yay we finally made top 10! Now we don't gotta try anymore!” Because this is the most obvious NQ. “You” is a bland song that doesn't have much going for it. The melody and the instrumental don't grab me enough. There's a long tunnel voice intro (like a distant indecipherable echo), then the bubbling synth boops take over, with a tingly instrument at one point. The pre-chorus brings in the accordion, claps, and a guitar flick sequence. Then the song stops, and the forgettable “drop” hits – which is this grinding motorized bass, with a glossy beat. It also pauses and heightens midway. The “DANCE... WITH YOU” hesitations are a meh hook though. Verse #2 adds a beat to the boops. Chorus #2 starts with a double clap. The bridge returns to the tunnel voice, mixed with helicopter flutters, leading to a long “TOOOOOOOOOOONIGHT” and thundery drums. But the sped-up outro is the only part that gets interesting. The song is too innocuous overall. Its energy is very mild. The lyrics don't have anything interesting to say either. Vasil holds trembling hands with this person. Their eyes are magnetic. He invites them to dance in the moment, because they may never see each other again. They kiss. He wants more. Maybe the staging would involve Vasil dancing with someone. I doubt it would be enough to save it though.

My prediction: 10% (#29 odds/ #37 scoreboard app). Too bland and forgettable. It's also my prediction for last place. NO CHANCE.

Slovenia: Ana Soklič - Voda “Voda” has an epic Balkan Ballad chorus, but I'm left wanting more from the song. The water drip sounds are tacky too, and they detract from the wintry atmosphere. The intro is cinematic, with an icy sharp piano and tense strings that swell up. The verse starts bare, with a slow piano and low frosty pings. Then the strings reemerge and grow. The chorus, by contrast, is explosive and extensive: Ana screams “VOOOOOOOOODAAAAAAAAAAAAAA” alongside trap-y broken metal ticks, more strings, and a drum bang bit. Verse #2 adds subtle taps and wooden echoes. And I love when she loses restrain in the bridge. The chorus melody works for me; the big vocals and strings elevate it. But this is a slow-moving song and the climax (the bridge) happens too late. The lyrics, meanwhile, revolve around a water metaphor. Ana pushes the subject to move on to new times and places; to not stop on the long journey; to go beyond light and belief. She remarks that the longest path is turning words into action. And that there's a broken chair waiting for a child (huh?) In the chorus, she affirms that the gushing water won't affect them – she'll stick with them through the storm. The water is the root of her endless unease. I don't really understand the verses though. There isn't much to say about the EMA performance, but there must've been a revamp. The first verse is longer, the production is slightly different, and the song just... ends before the bridge. I like the studio version better.

My prediction: 15% (#41 odds/ #39 scoreboard app). Very poor fan reception. Maybe the juries praise her vocals, but I doubt the televote would compensate enough. NO CHANCE.

Lithuania: The Roop - On Fire I don't think this would've won, but it could've been Lithuania's first top 5. It's a very catchy song and the production has a cool vibe. The music starts with spread-out piano slams, followed by finger snaps, leading to a shimmer-stop on “ooh-ooh-ooh”. Then the Milky Chance “Stolen Dance”-like beat takes over – with wobbly bass burps, guitar pokes, and scissor slices. The song's rhythm chugs and bobs up-and-down from here-on-out. The music reduces to just bass burps before the “drop”, then the “drop” adds this addictive squealing siren to the mix (like a firetruck?) Verse #2 pulls back to just guitar and ticks; before the beat returns for the “la la la la”s, heightening midway. And the bridge cuts back to the bass again. It's a very murky atmosphere; like a room filled with smoke, but not in a dangerous way. I love the song's smooth vibe and propulsive rhythm. The “la la la la”s and “THE HEAT IS GETTING HIGHER” hooks are great too. That chorus sounds like rising heat. In the lyrics, Vaidotas defies being told he's too old for personal growth. He's not a stone, he's free to change and move. He knows he's strong enough to achieve this. It took him a while to take action but no one can stop him now. The fire represents his desire and passion. The PiN staging is definitely memorable, with the magnifying glasses, mirrored split-screens, wild arm swings, and fingers behind his head. The choreo is very wacky and he has quirky stage presence. But it isn't cringe. He's just having fun with it.

My prediction: 99% (#2 odds/ #1 scoreboard app). Possibly the SF1 televote winner too. Also one of the 6 winner contenders of 2020, so it's LOCKED.

Ireland: Lesley Roy - Story of My Life This song kinda sounds like Kelly Clarkson's “Stronger”. The dance-pop production takes me back to 2011. Does that make it dated or nostalgic? Either way, the highly energetic, shout-out-loud chorus is a bop. I dislike the “NA NA NA NA NA HEY HEY HEY” schoolyard taunt though. Lesley is taunting the people who thought she wouldn't make it. No one believed in her, but she pulled it off by herself. The “I'm not a puppet on a string” line refutes the 1967 winner. She was known for breaking rules. She was expected to live a normal life. She took their advice to be blunt, then was criticized for it. But she doesn't care what they say because they don't matter. The chorus asserts that it's her life. And the song ends with “I don't care what you say”. The message is about being yourself to reach your dreams. The music starts with incessant, rapid, impatient nudges that keep powering down. The persistent kicks are added in next. Then the buzzy synths and the clappy beat heighten the pre-chorus. While the chorus bulldozes through as the bass-line roars and radiates. That chorus flows like a dam bursting open. It's a giant release of energy. I love when that bass-line hits too. Verse #2 is also buzzy. The second chorus is doubled, and the energy continues through the bridge, letting things run freely. Then the bridge submerges, leading to a clapping breakdown with background voices, before resuming the energy. The song's vibe is like celebrating her life.

My prediction: 35% (#21 odds/ #28 scoreboard app). Ireland's 2014+ track record isn't great, and I just don't see the public prioritizing their votes for this. The staging would need to match the song's energy, and not be as complicated as the “Maps” staging. UNLIKELY.

Russia: Little Big - Uno #StandWithUkraine

I first knew about Little Big when my friend showed me the “Skibidi” video. “Uno” isn't as weird as that, but their style of humour fits Eurovision perfectly for a joke entry. There's some nonsense lyrics, like the “dummy dummy” / “yummy yummy” rhymes and the Spanish counting that skips 3 for some reason. And Ilya seduces Sonya in this creepy voice. He's waiting for her to be ready for “some action” (sex). She needs another drink first (“margarita” and “señorita” adds even more Spanish!) But she's down for it after midnight, calling him charming and funny. He also says “come to daddy”... So, the intro is a watery soap opera organ. Then the piano start/stops in a 'DUN... da-DA da-DA-da... DUN' pattern (with bass added to the middle part), alongside raindrop hand drums and twisting sounds. The pauses steer the verses, then the pre-chorus beat gets things moving. There's a desk bell, and the chorus squeaks along, with a squealing rave synth break afterwards. And a tongue pop in the middle. Verse #2 throws in some “Hah!” pauses. And the bridge vocal sounds like a radio speaker. This is a catchy song – with the “uno-uno-uno” repetitions, and the way Sonya comes in for the pre-chorus and last chorus line. But the production is kinda ugly, the chorus is basic, and the vocals aren't meant to be pleasant. The music video is exactly what I imagined the staging to look like: a memorable dance sequence (the leg crossings), weirdly intimidating facial expressions, and a random dude dancing in workout gear.

My prediction: 99% (#5 odds/ #6 scoreboard app). Possibly the SF1 televote winner too. It's the most viewed video on the Eurovision YouTube channel. It's one of the 6 winner contenders of 2020. And Russia is always a televote magnet. LOCKED.

Belgium: Hooverphonic - Release Me Belgium selects a band that's been charting there for 20+ years. And that experience shows in the professionally crafted instrumental. It starts with a repeating, pounding, agonized piano note, like a migraine. Then the drums and psychedelic guitar splashes get things moving, with some metal clicks. Then the orchestral strings raise the chorus in a expansive, cinematic way. The strings later continue through the bridge. And the song ends once the string tension snaps off. It's a nice song, but a slow-moving one, and Luka's vocal is too sleep-inducing. She lacks enough emotional punch for me. She almost sounds bored? And it becomes a dreary ballad. In the lyrics, Luka keeps asking her lover over and over again to release her, because they won't do it. The song even opens with the words “Release Me”. She doesn't want to talk it out. She already knows what they'll say (probably that they still love her), and it won't fix things. The lying, the pain. The relationship is already over in her mind. It's not right to make her stay. But they hold the power to end it, because she's stuck in this dangerous need of them. She also calls it a “losing game” (an “Arcade” reference?) And the chorus concludes with the old saying “If you love me, let me go”. The second verse and the bridge just repeat the first verse. Her voice makes the situation sound bleak. I mostly just like the strings in this one.

My prediction: 50% (#17 odds/ #22 scoreboard app). I think the juries would've pushed this through, but it could've been another Sennek situation. Especially if the staging is empty. “The Wrong Place” was also borderline, although with a different vocalist. BORDERLINE IN.

Malta: Destiny - All of My Love “Like a river... runnin'... WILD!” The 2015 JESC winner graduates to adult Eurovision! Destiny's vocals are impressive here, especially during the bridge, which is a spiritual awakening. The lyrics could be interpreted as religious, but they don't have to be. She thought praying was useless because she'd never find her path. She felt “no good” and misunderstood. But now everything's changed. This person's love has healed and freed Destiny, so she gives her love back in return. The song is basically a big 'thank you'. She keeps hoping they won't let her down though, showing doubt still exists. But she now realizes their positive validation was right. The song's intro is divine, with a church organ and low-pitched “ah-uh-oh”s. Then the first verse is bare with spread-out piano slams, while Destiny's voice overpowers the isolated, big open space. The finger snaps come next. Then the chorus unleashes an effective clapping rhythm that reminds of me Lumidee / Wayne Wonder / “Pon de Replay”. It's like a bird flapping its wings. The chorus bass-line has a very consuming atmosphere too; it's like the power of universe embracing you. It heightens in the post-chorus. The second verse production gets excited. The song reduces back to piano/snaps before the second chorus. And the bridge is nearly a cappella, save for the claps, with the backing choir leading to Destiny's big note climax. The atmosphere is powerful here. I really love the music video too.

My prediction: 99% (#8 odds/ #8 scoreboard app). Possibly the SF1 jury winner as well. I can't see it being a televote NQ either. LOCKED.

Croatia: Damir Kedžo - Divlji vjetre Well, this is a generic Balkan Ballad. I really dislike the key change as well (those backing vocals…) And I don't like how the instrumental keeps cutting off and switching up. It doesn't flow right. The song opens with a piano buzzer and a slice. Then the frosty piano stays low, with a windy sound and an orchestral jerk in the middle. The smooth strings arrive next. Then it's the dramatic thunder drums, as the pre-chorus escalates. There's a pause, a piano hold, and another pause. Then the smooth strings create a beautiful chorus, with more thunder drums poking through. There's a few isolated kicks halfway, then the percussion pridefully marches ahead. The backing choir sings a line after the chorus. Verse #2 continues the prideful steps and thunder drums. Chorus #2 skips all the build-up. And the song ends on a dramatic slam. The tugging, valiant motion is alright, but nothing special. In the lyrics, Damir still loves his ex, even after they've completely moved on. He wants to move on too, but he can't. It seemed like they were bound forever. So he asks the “Wild Wind” to leave him alone, before he's not himself anymore. He also asks it to bring “withered leaves” and to rain tears on the autumn colours. The lyrics use lots of nature metaphors. “Rip the branches uncontrollably” suggests a messy break-up. There's not much say about the Dora performance. He sings well and the LED lights flash during the thunder drums.

My prediction: 30% (#39 odds/ #36 scoreboard app). I don't think it stands out enough to qualify. UNLIKELY.

Azerbaijan: Efendi - Cleopatra This song is a wild ride. First, Efendi screams “AHHHHHH” across the land. Then the hazy eastern guitar gives a cultural feel. The forceful kicks come next. Then the distressed pre-chorus moves smoother, as the backing cushions it. But the next sequence is SO random: the song stops upon “sounds... like... this”, there's a humming Buddhist mantra on loop, another “AHHHH”, a “LIKE CLEOPATRA!” army command, and a bunch of “LA LA LA”s with room-shaking kicks. She also rolls her R's on “like CleopatRRRa”. Next, verse #2 adds continuous “hey!” slices. An electric guitar starts the next pre-chorus. The bridge goes into machine beeps, more kicks, and stutters; before reducing to a clappy breakdown, a “shhh!”, and then the outro goes into hyper speed. The lyrics are funny too, even with the empowerment message. Efendi boldly compares herself to Cleopatra. They're both queens betrayed by lovers. Both “part goddess, part temptress”. And both “straight or gay or in between” apparently. Efendi's ex left is like Mark Antony, and she clarifies which Marc Anthony lol. You know, “Cleo's gigolo”! No one intervened and she wasn't herself anymore. But now she's back with a vengeance after rediscovering her inner voice – which is that mantra. Cleopatra is her idol I guess. This song is ridiculous, but somehow it works. It's insanely catchy and addictive. Efendi has fun with it while still being a fierce, confident bad-ass. She's in total control of the song; and her life now! And the production goes hard during the “LA LA LA” parts. I love the outro too.

My prediction: 85% (#9 odds/ #9 scoreboard app). Probably a big televote fave but lower with the juries. I'm curious on how they would've staged this. LOCKED.

Cyprus: Sandro - Running Yeah, this is a Meduza copycat, but “Running” is a solid EDM track on its own. The dark, droopy, bass-heavy production traps Sandro in. His vocals aren't the best, but he sounds tormented and tortured; like he's suffering. The song starts with some bass nudges putting pressure on him, alongside a subtle, tense, stationary whistle. Meanwhile, there's deep “BAWP” interruptions throughout the song. The finger snaps come next. Then the song starts moving, and the verse shakes and stops at the end. That quiet part represents how he can't see anymore. The synth drips steadily emerge afterwards, and the shakes and cymbal crashes escalate into the “drop”, which is a bunch of “mmhmm aha”s and dark EDM bass. The drop also starts with a triple clap. Chorus #2 adds snaps to the mix. But the bridge is my fave part, where Sandro's voice jumps out as a desperate cry for help. The beat then stops for a moody string moment, symbolizing when he falls down. The song picks itself back up and ends with strings again. He says “I don't wanna fall again” many times (like collapsing from running), but the final line changes to “I'm NOT gonna fall again”, showing a will to change. Basically, Sandro is tired of running from his mental health, but it's a habit he can't break. He chooses to be alone instead of talking to someone. And he ignores phone calls and door knocks. I like the “BAWP”s and the atmosphere, even if it's a bit monotone. The faster parts represent his running.

My prediction: 40% (#32 odds/ #29 scoreboard app). With the right staging, I could see this being a shock qualifier, but it also depends on his live vocals. BORDERLINE OUT.

Norway: Ulrikke - Attention This is an incredible power ballad. The intro is majestic, with the tense and rising strings (+ piano). After the string tension breaks, there's a series of vibrations, snaps, and drum pats, which move at a patient and careful pace. I also like how she says “attennnTION”. Her voice rises on “I-uh-I-uh-I”, as the piano returns. Then the chorus halts everything, as she screams “SO WHY...” alongside gradual piano and drum booms. There's a rising “DO-oo-OO” hook too. The first chorus is just a tease though. Verse #2 is less minimal and adds background voices. There's some impatient steps, then chorus #2 is MASSIVE and EXPLOSIVE. Ulrikke's huge vocals and the low backing chants really power it. That chorus demands attention. The bridge is a fragile moment. Then more impatient steps + an “OHHHH” build into the finale. So, Ulrikke is desperate for this person's attention, but I get the sense she doesn't like this side of herself. The lyrics show self-awareness. She does crazy, foolish things to make them notice her. She wouldn't normally exhibit these behaviours. She doesn't have time for her friend anymore. But this person is oblivious to her signals. The explosive chorus is when Ulrikke lets her frustration out; she also questions why she changes herself to please someone else. Then, in the bridge, she tries to call it quits, feeling humiliated on the dance floor. On the MGP stage, she wears a sparkly dress next to a violinist and a cellist, and there's a fire rain climax. That final chorus transition is so good.

My prediction: 99% (#11 odds/ #5 scoreboard app). It's the type of ballad that appeals to both juries and televoters. Probably top 10 in the Grand Final too. LOCKED.

Israel: Eden Alene - Feker Libi This >>> “Toy” and “Home”. “Feker Libi” is a celebration of loving someone from another culture without shame. The music showcases this multicultural union by constantly switching the language and instrumental to different parts of the world! In a cohesive way too. Interestingly, 2019 interval act Idan Raichel helped write this. It starts in tropical Ethiopia, with a lamellophone, a couple reedy sounds, and Amharic lyrics expressing Eden's love. Then the song suddenly erupts into “YALLA-LA” shouts, xylophone boops, and commanding drum bangs, as the synth powers up. There's a water drip, then the verses follow horse-galloping ticks and drum wobbles. The pre-chorus adds emphatic claps, leading to a slapping motion on the made-up language part (“maka lakuma”), which I like. Then the European house beat relieves the tension. There's a series of knocks, then the instrumental turns Middle Eastern (I love how this part approaches you), as she says love terms in Amharic, Arabic and Hebrew. The percussion also turns chaotic towards the end, although the song finishes on a quieter note. The lyrics don't say a lot - Eden asks Incan goddess Pachamama to show the way. She says close your eyes and feel the “melodía” (so there's Spanish as well). And that tonight is a “colour party”! But I love the positive energy here. The NF stage includes a lamellophone player, dancers dressed in yellow, foreign scripts on the LED, and camera jerks on the drum bangs. The smiles and Eden's charisma are great.

My prediction: 90% (#18 odds/ #16 scoreboard app). Probably somewhere between 9th-13th in the Grand Final. LOCKED.

Romania: Roxen - Alcohol You I can understand the hype - Roxen's distinct vocal contains raw emotion. They sound like a trembling, broken, sobbing mess. They scream in agony during the last chorus. And they can't finish the “from the bottom of my…” line. But the “Alcohol You”/“I'll call you” pun and the “fake news” lyric are cringe. And the song is kinda pretentious? I like the “I need you but it hurts/To feel like I deserve/Your weapons” line though. I also like the pre-chorus build-up, and the verses sound like a big, dark, empty space. But the chorus pause annoys me. The song is about drunk calling an ex, and how that's probably a bad idea. The colourful morning sunrise makes Roxen squint. They shame their “stupid words”. They drank bittersweet alcohol to relive the memories. They ignore their friends' warnings. They're too weak to acknowledge their ex's bad qualities. And they read between the lines of their ex's lies(?) The last line also switches to “I will call you when I'm strong”, showing a will to change. The first verse follows a 'dun-DUN-DUN-DUN' 4-note piano pattern, with a howling intro and some vocal echoes. There's a thunder roll, then the pre-chorus loudly echo-clacks, as the strings are there until the tension breaks. The chorus is a vulnerable moment - it pauses for the song title; then a heartbeat, a distorted whimper, a metal tick rattle follows. Then some escalating drums. Verse #2 brings the cello, drum patters, and forceful splashes. Chorus #2 starts very shaky. And the song ends with more thunder booms and strings. In the NF, Roxen stares at themselves on the LED. Edit: this is starting to click now.

My prediction: 65% (#7 odds/ #11 scoreboard app). If they aren't running around like “Amnesia”, this will probably qualify, but I can see it being the “Bones” of 2020, where the results don't quite match the hype. It's also too similar to the most recent Eurovision winner. LIKELY.

Ukraine: Go_A - Solovey “Shum” >>> this. Kateryna's “White Voice” singing is irritating in “Solovey”; especially the chorus. The melody and the flute are rather annoying too, but I like some aspects of the electronic production. After the intro twists into view, Ihor's bouncy flute acts as a birdsong/the sound of nature (since the title means “Nightingale”), while the thunder-slam drums are spread out to be dramatic. Next, the verse hums, the snaps arrive, the slams return, and the electronic beat gets things moving partway. The song halts upon the chorus, which also hums before the rubbery drums hit. There's a flute break afterwards, where the beat moves like waves; and heightens midway with claps and broken metal ticks. Verse #2 starts growl-y and the claps come back midway. There's a steam leak, where the vocals muffle. The metal ticks set up chorus #2, which doesn't halt. And the outro slows down into roaring electric guitars, which I find clashing. The lyrics tell a story about Katrusya and Vanyusha, and repeat a lot of phrases. She goes to the valley to pick flowers, while he professes his love to her. But they can only be together until mother finds out. If Kat knew about this, she wouldn't have gotten involved. The chorus pleads the nightingale to not sing so early, since she can't handle happiness right now. The Vidbir version (before the revamp) sounds more pleasant. The stage includes a flutist and a DJ, who also play the drums, while Kateryna wears that black and red thing. There's also guitar sparks at the end. But I just cannot get past the abrasive sound of this song.

My prediction: 85% (#25 odds/ #13 scoreboard app). It's more polarizing than “Shum”, but Ukraine aren't breaking their qualification streak with this lol. Probably more of a televote fave though. LOCKED.

Predictions recap... Locked: Lithuania, Sweden, Russia, Norway, Malta, Israel, Azerbaijan, Ukraine Likely: Romania Borderline in: Belgium Borderline out: Australia, Cyprus Unlikely: Ireland, Croatia, Belarus No chance: Slovenia, North Macedonia

SF1 Winner: Sweden or Lithuania Jury winner: Sweden or Malta Televote winner: Lithuania or Russia Last place: North Macedonia

My Ranking:

01. Norway: Ulrikke - Attention 02. Israel: Eden Alene - Feker Libi 03. Lithuania: The Roop - On Fire 04. Azerbaijan: Efendi - Cleopatra 05. Malta: Destiny - All of My Love 06. Sweden: The Mamas - Move 07. Cyprus: Sandro - Running 08. Ireland: Lesley Roy - Story of My Life 09. Romania: Roxen - Alcohol You 10. Russia: Little Big - Uno

11. Belarus: VAL - Da vidna 12. Belgium: Hooverphonic - Release Me 13. Slovenia: Ana Soklič - Voda 14. Croatia: Damir Kedžo - Divlji vjetre 15. Australia: Montaigne - Don't Break Me 16. North Macedonia: Vasil - You 17. Ukraine: Go_A - Solovey

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