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blkholeinfinity · 5 years

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My Good Omens Headcanon That No One Asked For

I’m not saying that anyone else’s headcanon are incorrect, or that anyone’s wrong for disagreeing with me! And honestly, just because these are my headcanon doesn’t mean I don’t accept other headcanon. Think of it as: if I was going to write Good Omens fanfic, these are the headcanon I’m going to roll with. If I’m enjoying fanworks or meta, anything goes, even/especially things that contradict my own headcanon.

And since the miniseries is burning stronger in my brainspace than the book atm, this is all relevant to the miniseries canon only.

Bonus Ineffable Bureaucracy headcanon at the end!

Ineffable Husbands Being Dumb About Their Feelings Headcanon

Crowley has been infatuated - not in love - with Aziraphale from the beginning. He didn’t realize his infatuation until Rome, and I can’t pinpoint when or where that infatuation turned into love since I believe it was a slow, gradual process. He definitely realized it before 1862, though, if not in 1862 the second Aziraphale said “fraternizing.”

For Aziraphale, he was fascinated with Crowley since the beginning. Maybe infatuated, too. He realized his infatuation a lot sooner, hence why he blatantly hit on Crowley in Rome (maybe realized it in Rome?), but then took a few giant steps back until sometime after 537 when he started making his way back to Crowley again, thus beginning his complicated feelings about his not-so-complicated feelings about Crowley. In other words, his brain was trying to convince himself that it was Not Personal, Purely Business, Just Friendship (But Not Officially), even if his heart was screaming at him otherwise. His infatuation grew into love over the centuries, but he didn’t realize it until, famously, 1941.

1967 was when they both realized that the other definitely felt the same way. Where Crowley was ready to take it to the next step at that moment, Aziraphale, well. WE ALL KNOW.

They finally stopped being dumb after the bus stop. They didn’t take things further than making out before they (Aziraphale) realized what Agnes’s prophecy meant, but they finally stopped being dumb about their feelings either on the way back from Tadfield or in Crowley’s flat.

Aziraphale was the one who had to stop being dumb first, and he absolutely was. He confessed first, he kissed Crowley first. They’d never make any progress otherwise.

General Aziraphale and Crowley Headcanon

I headcanon angels and demons having the power to speak whatever language they need to when on Earth, but Aziraphale and Crowley have been on Earth too long to remember this particular power in their arsenal. If they haven’t used it in the past, say, 100 years, they’ve forgotten the language completely.

Until they remember that they have this particular power. But don’t count on them coming to that realization on their own.

Anyway, Aziraphale and Crowley both canonically know English in the present day, obviously, but they’ve retained some German and French from their WWII shenanigans. Crowley knows some Russian although he isn’t particularly good at it because he played around quite a bit during the Cold War, and Aziraphale is surprisingly fluent in Japanese. Because sushi.

Aziraphale is a damn good swordsangel.

Crowley tries to get Aziraphale to watch TV and movies by tailoring his recommendations to what he knows Aziraphale would like and sitting down with him to watch it. Because Crowley knows Aziraphale so well, it’s actually a successful endeavor... until Aziraphale tries to watch something on his own that wasn’t a Crowley Recommendation and Regrets Everything.

In turn, Aziraphale definitely drags Crowley to every single West End production at least once a month. Crowley complains but he doesn’t actually mind. He really does enjoy most of the shows.

Crowley was all about that rock-and-roll life in the 1980s. Mostly for the aesthetic, though.

Crowley would absolutely be a cat person, if cats were demon people. But cats and demons don’t mix. This makes him a little sad, but at least he always has his rats?

Aziraphale and Crowley’s Sexuality Headcanon

I headcanon them both as demiromantic, sex-neutral asexuals.

And by demiromantic I mean that Aziraphale is Crowley-romantic and Crowley is Aziraphale-romantic.

They both have had sex prior to each other for a variety of reasons, but mostly either out of curiosity or because their jobs.

The first time they had sex with each other was primarily out of curiosity, since this is what a lot of humans do when they’re in love so might as well see if it’s any different with each other than with others. They found that they rather enjoy it better with each other than with anyone else they’ve ever slept with, but still didn’t quite understand what the big deal was, but they continue to do it every few years or so.

But they love to make out and cuddle.

General Angel and Demon Headcanons

Most angels and demons don’t really... get... gender. They present the way that they do for a few different reasons, the most popular ones being either aesthetics or apathy (aka- they were given the bodies they were given and never really gave another thought to them).

Any angel or demon who has spent a considerable amount of time on Earth are the exceptions to the rule. Obviously this includes Aziraphale and Crowley, and they’re probably the only two who are the closest to getting it - not that any of them are playing by humanity’s gender rules. They’re still either going for aesthetics or convenience.

In other words, just because Aziraphale and Crowley understand how gender works by human standards doesn’t mean they abide by it. It’s like that meme: Aziraphale’s gender is “nah” and Crowley’s gender is “yes.”

When in Heaven or Hell, the angels and demons speak a celestial language. The demons have bastardize it since falling, but it’s still the same basic language, and none of it is a human language.

Bunny Demon/Eric/Disposable Demon has a sort of hero worship crush (not an actual crush) on Crowley. Sorry, you can pry this one from my cold, dead fingers.

In the Final-Final Battle, Aziraphale and Crowley won’t be the only angel/demon to go against Heaven and Hell for the sake of humanity. There are 10 million angels and 10 million demons, at least a handful of them are going to join them, but it’ll be a long, slow process.

Yes, Bunny Demon/Eric/Disposable Demon will still be the first one to join their side.

God Headcanons

God isn’t just a woman, but a genderfluid woman.

She’s utterly fond of Aziraphale, which is why she never punished him for giving away the flaming sword.

And yes, she definitely knows that he did that. She wasn’t angry, just Disappointed.

She’s the reason Aziraphale and Crowley were handed Agnes’s final prophecy. Come on, that piece of paper flew to Aziraphale’s hand just a little too purposefully.

Also she’ll never let Aziraphale fall because, again, she’s really fond of him. You can pry that one from my cold, dead fingers, too.

Not!Armageddon was absolutely planned the way that it was so she could get her ultimate revenge on Satan - by having his own son disavow him.

God’s plan is Ineffable mostly because she keeps changing her mind.

And also she’s the trolliest troll who ever trolled.

Anathema, Newt, and The Them Headcanons

Anathema stays in Tadfield and becomes a surrogate big sister to the Them, but especially to Adam.

Newt also stays in Tadfield and has a more diverse relationship with the Them: Adam is indifferent, he and Wensleydale and Brian wind up getting along swimmingly, and Pepper straight up dislikes him.

Mrs. Young adores Anathema and Newt. Mr. Young, on the other hand, disapproves of them, but sees them as generally harmless enough to allow Adam to hang out with them. Not that Adam would stop even if Mr. Young tried to forbid it.

Pepper takes up swordfighting once she starts junior high/high school by taking classes at a local HEMA guild.

Dog lives forever.

The Four Horsepeople of the Apocalypse Headcanons

(Un)fortunately, War, Famine, and Pollution aren’t perma-dead. They come back and pick their lives up right where they left off.

These four are a Found Family.

I also ship them all together. OT4, ya’ll.

Pestilence is definitely THE anti-vax mom and is delighted that they might be coming out of retirement soon.

Not that Pollution intends to retire just because Pestilence is back.

But there’s always room for one more, is the Horsepeople’s opinion.

So now they are the Five Horsepeople of the Apocalypse. Fight them, God.

(God doesn’t care, this is all the humans’ doing anyway.)

And yes, the Them gets a fifth person to their crew to counter Pestilence. Probably someone aspiring to be a doctor. This is an accident, of course. Sort of. Adam can’t explain it, but his Antichrist senses were tingling...

Ineffable Bureaucracy Headcanons

Gabriel and Beelzebub were absolutely a Thing before Beelzebub fell, and their dynamic is more like an exhausted-but-still-angry-but-still-in-love divorced couple.

They start reuniting after Not!Armageddon, but it takes a few years for them to get there.

Gabriel is a sex-repulsed asexual (I do not sully my body...), where Beelzebub is a sex-neutral asexual.

And they’re both demiromantic. By which I mean Gabriel is Beelzebub-romantic and Beelzebub is Gabriel-romantic. But they hate it. They didn’t use to hate it, but then Beelzebub fell and things got messy and complicated and things were said that cannot be unsaid.

Gabriel uses ‘he’ pronouns (which I think is canon anyway?) where Beelzebub doesn’t care what pronouns you use for them. (Personally, I love ‘ze/they/her’ for Beelzebub, but I don’t think zey care.)

Aziraphale’s and Crowley’s brains broke when they discovered that Gabriel and Beelzebub are a couple now and they still haven’t fully recovered.

#good omens #good omens headcanon #ineffable husbands #ineffable bureaucracy #the them #anathema #four horsepeople of the apocalypse

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webuyhousesworld · 3 years

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Housing Market Slowing Down?

Housing Market Slowing Down? In this video I discuss is the housing market slowing? As a mortgage broker who has worked with thousands of buyers, I feel like I can get a feel for buyer sentiment and market trends before the data hits the radar of analysts. This video is my hunch and my “feel” for what is going on. Please comment below how you feel about your market and let's discuss I love real estate and everything that has to do with real estate investing mortgage, and personal finance. If you enjoyed this video and found value, please consider subscribing! This time last year, housing industry insiders were predicting that the market would collapse under the weight of the pandemic. The opposite happened. Even as the economy suffered its worst year since World War II, the housing market boomed. But that doesn’t mean all is well. Rising prices have masked but not eliminated longstanding problems and vulnerabilities at the heart of America’s housing market. Most urgently, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—the government-sponsored enterprises that own or guarantee roughly half the $12 trillion mortgage market—lack the capital to survive the next inevitable downturn in home prices. The good news is that unlike the crisis in 2008, should the GSEs fail again, creditors, rather than taxpayers, can absorb the losses. That’s because the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which I direct, completed a new rule last month that creates a process to end taxpayer bailouts of the GSEs once and for all. Housing Market Slowing Down? By requiring the GSEs to maintain credible resolution plans known as “living wills,” the new rule will enable a failing GSE to be restructured without risk to business continuity or America’s mortgage market. Similar to the requirements put in place by the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. under the Dodd-Frank Act, the resolution plans will facilitate rapid and orderly resolution if necessary. For the first time in history, the GSEs are required to demonstrate how, in the event of insolvency, core business lines and charters would be maintained to support the housing-finance system without extraordinary government assistance. By establishing the rules of the road in insolvency, these living wills give future investors the information they need to price risk appropriately. This is a prerequisite for the GSEs to raise private capital, which is key to the housing market’s long-term stability. The housing market is hot — but is it too hot? That’s the question a lot of Americans appear to be asking themselves. Data from Google GOOGL, +2.21% underscore the concerns that many people have about the state of the market. Searches for the phrase, “When is the housing market going to crash,” are up 2,450% over the past month. Similarly, Americans are searching in droves for explanations about why the housing market is so hot and why home prices are rising, Google reported. Americans’ concerns are perhaps a natural by-product of today’s extremely competitive market, economists said. “If we see prices rising as quickly as we have, for some people it might spark some memories of the last time around,” Matthew Speakman, an economist with Zillow ZG, +4.69% Z, +4.46%, said. “After robust gains over the past five years, the nationwide nominal house price index is now 40% above its 2012 low-point and 4% above the peak reached in 2006. If 2006 was a historic bubble, then current price levels should be looked at more closely,” according to J.P. Morgan Research. ‘Slowing employment recovery and still-high unemployment levels are not supportive of long-term sustainable price growth.’ — Suzanne Mistretta, senior director at Fitch Ratings For some, today’s real-estate market might feel eerily similar to the market conditions that preceded the Great Recession. Given that the last housing boom triggered a global economic meltdown, these concerns are certainly understandable. But housing experts argue that Americans don’t need to get themselves too worked up — yet. Fitch estimates that national home prices are approximately 5.5% overvalued. “Slowing employment recovery and still-high unemployment levels are not supportive of long-term sustainable price growth,” wrote Suzanne Mistretta, senior director at Fitch Ratings, in a recent research note. And even the more optimistic forecasts from within the industry don’t see current prices lasting. Housing Market Slowing Down? “We’re not going to see a crash in the housing market, but we are expecting some cooling on the really unsustainable growth rates that we saw, particularly in 2020,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. “When home prices are growing faster than incomes, ultimately that is an unsustainable trend.” What’s going on in the housing market? Housing Market Slowing Down? A year ago, when COVID-19 cases first skyrocketed across the U.S., the home-buying market came to a screeching halt as people were advised to stay home to avoid getting sick. At the time, it seemed the housing market was poised for a downturn. What the News Means for You and Your Money Housing Market Slowing Down? Instead, the opposite occurred. When real-estate transactions were allowed to resume, Americans flocked to buy homes. With jobs turning remote and schools becoming virtual, families sought more space in the suburbs. Some city residents tired of their cramped apartments and decided to make a permanent move to more rural areas, while others merely opted to purchase second homes to escape to amid the stay-at-home orders. Fitch calculates that U.S. home prices in a quarter of the country’s metropolitan statistical areas are more than 10% overvalued. With the sudden crush of people seeking to buy homes, prices skyrocketed. By November, home prices were rising at the fastest pace since the Great Recession, and price appreciation has yet to slow. The demand for housing also triggered a building craze. Last year saw a 12% gain in the construction of single-family homes, Dietz said. The sudden increase in home-building activity has since caused a surge in the prices for lumber, driving up the prices of new homes even higher. Fitch calculates that U.S. home prices in a quarter of the country’s metropolitan statistical areas are more than 10% overvalued. Home prices in Idaho (30%-34%) and Nevada (25%-29%) are “becoming more unsustainably inflated while Texas (15%-19%) has become frothier over the last year. “ What’s more, markets like Rhode Island and Washington (both 10%-14% overvalued) that have traditionally experienced more sustainable house-price increases “are now seeing similar disconnects between home price growth and economic fundamentals in place to support the rate of growth,” Fitch added. Strong housing demand is pandemic-related But experts are hesitant to make apples-to-apples comparisons between this housing market fueled in part by pandemic-related demand and low-interest rates, and the one that preceded the Great Recession. The circumstances contributing to today’s booming housing market are very different from what precipitated the last boom and bust cycle. In particular, lenders are being far more careful. The housing boom that prompted the Great Recession stemmed from the rise of sub-prime lending. Banks and other mortgage lenders were originating riskier loans — often requiring little in the way of documentation from borrowers to prove they could afford their monthly mortgage payments. Many loans also featured adjustable rates that ballooned after an introductory period. At the time, homeowners were also treating their homes like ATMs, refinancing into these risky loans to cash out the equity they built up. Experts are hesitant to make apples-to-apples comparisons between this housing market fueled in part by pandemic-related demand and low-interest rates, and the one that preceded the Great Recession. — Danielle Hale, chief economist of Realtor.com By comparison, today’s lending practices are far more conservative. “Banks and mortgage lenders have been disciplined in extending credit, a very different approach than we saw in the previous housing boom,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist of Realtor.com. “In fact, banks have tightened underwriting requirements in the wake of lockdowns last year, so buyers today are more qualified than they’ve been in quite some time.” As evidence of that, mortgage lenders are offering loans to borrowers with higher credit scores. Mortgage credit availability plummeted in the immediate wake of the pandemic to the lowest levels in six years and has only slightly recovered since according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mortgage credit availability plummeted in the immediate wake of the pandemic to the lowest levels in six years and has only slightly recovered since. With banks being so careful, the demand seen in the housing market today is much more organic. And the lifestyle changes brought about by the pandemic is not the only reason why demand has surged. “Current demand is built on a significant growing demographic wave, as we have many millennials turning 30 — a key age for first-time home buying,” Hale said. The common wisdom in real estate is that people are primarily motivated to buy a home not because of low-interest rates or the investment potential, but because of life changes. Millennials are the largest generation — and they are getting married and having kids. As they experience these major milestones, owning a home is becoming a bigger priority. Home shortages push prices higher Florida, a housing market that was hit hard by the Great Recession, is also experiencing potential overheating, according to Ken. H. Johnson, a real-estate economist and associate dean in FAU’s College of Business. Single-family homes, condominiums, townhomes and co-ops are more than 17% above their long-term fundamental house-price growth, but the extent of overpricing of these homes remains far below the 65% during the 2006 peak of overvaluations just before the Great Recession. The big problem for home buyers right now is that there are not many properties to go around. As with the surge in demand, the rise in home prices isn’t artificial, unless you consider the coronavirus pandemic a temporary and/or artificial force fueling house prices. “The heady home price appreciation during the pandemic certainly has some frothiness to it, but there is a substance not far beneath that froth,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president of market economics at Auction.com, a real-estate platform that specializes in foreclosed and bank-owned properties. Many home builders were burned by the last housing bust. Prior to it, some companies had engaged in speculative building practices, so when the market bottomed out they found themselves saddled with newly-constructed homes and few interested buyers. Single-family homes, condominiums, townhomes and co-ops are more than 17% above their long-term fundamental house-price growth. — Ken. H. Johnson, a real-estate economist and associate dean in FAU’s College of Business. As a result, home-building activity slowed considerably. Homebuilders have only ramped their operations back up in the last couple of years, experts say. In the meantime, many Americans were busy getting married and having kids — creating a huge gap between supply and demand. A recent report from Freddie Mac estimated that the U.S. is 4 million homes short of being able to meet the demand of home buyers. That figure has grown by 50% since 2018. Making matters worse, would-be home sellers have remained on the sidelines, constricting the availability of existing homes for sale. Some sellers are likely still nervous about the health risks associated with putting their home on the market amid a pandemic. Others are likely dismayed because they’re having just as hard a time finding a new home to live in, causing them to delay listing their home for sale. Will COVID-19 spark a rise in foreclosures? The housing market may be on solid ground when it comes to the demand for homes and the fast pace of home-price appreciation, but some risks to its health remain. The biggest of these might be the ongoing forbearance situation in the mortgage market. As the economy went into a downward spiral at the start of the pandemic, lawmakers and financial regulators quickly instructed mortgage lenders and servicers to offer relief to borrowers who may have lost work or income. In particular, Americans could request forbearance on their mortgage — allowing them to make reduced mortgage payments or skip them altogether — essentially without any questions asked. At the same time, a moratorium on foreclosures was enacted. By late June, more than 4 million Americans were in forbearance on their mortgage. Millions of homeowners have since exited forbearance and successfully resumed making their monthly payments. However, the federal government has extended both the forbearance program and foreclosure moratorium on multiple occasions. As of mid-April, roughly 2.3 million homeowners were still skipping mortgage payments, according to an estimate from the Mortgage Bankers Association. As of mid-April, around 2.3 million homeowners were still skipping their mortgage payments, according to one estimate. It’s not clear how many of those homeowners will be able to eventually restart paying off their mortgage, and the fate of the housing market could hinge on regulators’ success in preventing a wave of foreclosures. Having all of these homes go into default at once “would tank the market,” said Joan Trice, CEO of the Collateral Risk Network, an organization of real estate appraisers and risk managers. “The forbearance rate is two times what it was in the last crisis,” Trice added. “It would be chaos and devastating to the market.” The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau recently proposed extending the pause on foreclosures until 2022 and making it easier for borrowers to request changes to their home loans that would allow them to afford to stay in their homes. The consumer-watchdog agency also suggested it was going to scrutinize lenders’ and servicers’ practices to protect homeowners. Plus, regulations introduced under President Obama make pursuing a foreclosure more onerous than it was during the last housing downturn. ‘The forbearance rate is two times what it was in the last crisis.’ — Joan Trice, CEO of the Collateral Risk Network “Combine all of this and the risk of large-scale foreclosures diminishes substantially,” said Edward Pinto, co-director of the American Enterprise Institute’s Center on Housing Markets and Finance. To the extent that some homeowners may still go into default, it would not necessarily be widespread. Forbearance rates are higher among people who took out loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration, or FHA. Housing Market Slowing Down? “The biggest risk lies with Federal Housing Administration (FHA)-backed loans originated since 2014,” Blomquist said. These loans were riskier, featuring higher debt-to-income ratios. Many of these borrowers relied on down-payment assistance to purchase their homes. “Those FHA loans will be the most likely to fall into foreclosure post-pandemic, and markets with high concentrations of these loans could suffer as a result,” Blomquist said. The housing markets that have the highest risk based on FHA delinquency rates as of February include Atlanta, Houston Chicago and Dallas, according to research from the American Enterprise Institute. The good news for homeowners in a bind right now is that, generally speaking, they have built up equity in their homes. And given the high demand for housing nationwide, housing experts say that most of these families should be able to sell their homes — even for a profit — and return to renting. What happens if mortgage rates rise? Housing Market Slowing Down? Based on past econometric modeling, J.P. Morgan Research found that “a reasonable rule of thumb” is a 100 basis-point decline in mortgage rates is associated with a 10% increase in home sales. But, experts caution, the opposite is also true. The difficult forbearance situation isn’t the only threat to the housing market. Indeed, with home prices having risen as high as they have, many buyers are walking a fine line when it comes to being able to afford to purchase a property. Rising mortgage rates threaten that equilibrium. “An extremely rapid and sharp rise in mortgage rates could cool demand so abruptly that it quickly shifts the market from boom to bust,” Blomquist said. Most housing experts project that mortgage rates will only rise somewhat modestly this year. Interest rates have rebounded from the record lows set at the start of the year, but in recent works, they settled around 3%. Should rates resume their upward climb, home price growth is likely to slow in response, experts say. And that could give some buyers an opening, as affordability pushes others out of the market for the time being. We Buy Houses World Housing Market Slowing Down? #we #buy #houses #love #sell #realestate #instagood #homes #you #realtor #house #usa #home #us #invest #luxury #are #miami #instagram #architecture #the #realestateagent #hiphop #rent #luxuryhomes #beautiful #design #artist #sale #happy Read the full article

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rebeccahpedersen · 6 years

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The 1-Bedroom Condo Market Is On Fire!

TorontoRealtyBlog

I haven’t seen anything like this since….well, since this time last year.

Say what you want about the market; give your opinion on where we are. But there’s absolutely no denying what’s going on in the condo market right now, and even the most ardent market bear can’t show us data to the contrary.

Let me take a moment to show you where we are, where we were, and God help us – where we might be headed…

I just couldn’t bring myself to use a photo of an actual building on fire, so this really cool candle will just have to do.

Folks, what I said in the introduction there, about “the most ardent bear showing us data to the contrary,” is said out of necessity, rather than self-consciousness. I often remark that Toronto real estate makes for one of the most passionate, and often controversial, topics out there today. The “Big Three” things you don’t talk about in social settings used to be money, politics, and religion. Well in 2018, in Toronto, you can certainly add real estate to the mix.

Over the last couple of years, I’ve never seen the level of passion – and by that, I also mean excitement and joy, as well as frustration, anger, and resentment – expressed toward the Toronto real estate market.

It’s become a hobby for many, whether they own a home and are never moving, or are years away from owning one. It’s also become an area of sensitivity, for many with aspirations.

So whenever I write anything remotely positive about the market, those that have different outlooks, or different wishes, come out in full force.

I mail out an “E-Newsletter” each month to my clients, as well as my TRB subscribers who sign-up at the top of the page. And last month, I spoke of how busy the market is, and how things really took off in the last week of January.

To my surprise, I received one response from a person who accused me of “fear-mongoring,” which I didn’t think made sense, given my bullish outlook, but perhaps he meant that I was trying to create fear for those that don’t own real estate? Anyways, not important. Within his email, was a list of a dozen reasons why the market could, or will, decline. There was also a section on how TREB “fudges” the numbers each and every month, and that’s when I figured he was a tinfoil-hat type, and moved on.

So when I say today, “the most ardent bear can’t show us data to the contrary,” I’m basically asking for some opposing views.

The issue I always have is trying to convey what’s actually happening out there in the market, through my stories and experiences, and having the data to back it up.

Case in point, how about the 23-offer melee on a 1-bedroom condo on Front Street on Monday night?

Does that seem like a normal market occurence to you?

A relatively unspectacular, $499,900 unit, under-priced but not drastically, solicited twenty-three offers.

And it sold for almost $100,000 over the list price.

When I say “unspectacular,” I mean it’s nothing out of the ordinary. It’s a great location, but the unit itself is not made of gold; it’s simply square footage.

But in the 2018 Toronto condo market, as was the case in early-2017, “just a condo” is good enough to solicit multiple offers.

And this isn’t about under-pricing. Sure, a handful of those twenty-three offers could have been at the list price, with conditions. But most offers in this market are from people who play to win.

Virtually every condo listed in the central core right now has a “hold-back on offers,” and most of them are selling in multiple offers.

It’s just uncanny.

I thought I had found a unicorn earlier this week. I know it’s “an” unicorn, but that just looks weird…

A King West condo hit the market; 566 square feet, priced at $449,900, with offers any time.

No parking, no locker, and still $795/sqft. Add in the 110 square foot balcony, and I thought this was a real opportunity.

With no holdback on offers, I thought it was a great spot to see the unit over lunch (it had hit the market around 11am), and if everything checked out, make an offer with a short irrevocable, and see if we could catch the listing agent with his pants down.

I pulled the MPAC report for the unit (it costs $5.00 and TREB should make it mandatory for every listing in the city, to show square footage to buyers and buyer agents), and as luck would have it, the MPAC “square footage report” showed the unit at 456 square feet.

456 square feet, eh?

Where did the listing agent get 566 square feet from?

Oh, gee – the 110 square foot balcony. Let’s just add those together, and voila!

If something seems to good to be true in this market, it usually is.

At 456 square feet, this unit was actually priced at $987 per square foot.

And the irony is – a colleague remarked thereafter, “Nine-eighty-seven a square, with a balcony, a BBQ gas line, and in that location? Hmmm, not bad!”

Not bad, at a thousand bucks a square foot.

$1,000 per square foot. That’s such a big number, is it not?

And the crazy thing is – it’s not a rarity.

I’m looking through MLS right now…

New listing at 318 King Street East – 790 square feet for $719,000, hold-back on offers, and this unit is spectacular – it’s going to obliterate any record in the building. This will go well over $1K/sqft.

New listing at 510 King Street East – a bachelor unit, probably 450 square feet, for $400,000, with offers reviewed on March 5th. Could we see $1000/sqft here?

New listing at 390 Cherry Street – 600 square feet for $599K.

And on, and on, and on.

Many of you are thinking, “I thought the market was slow! Didn’t things change last year?”

That’s a fair line of questioning, and it’s something people email me whenever I use words like “hot” to describe the Toronto real estate market. As the theme went in last week’s blog posts, people will create their own narrative, and say things like, “Interest rates went up, and the B-20 rules came into effect. The United States is a mess, and it’s getting consumer confidence down. NAFTA…..the Canadian dollar…..manufacturing…….jobs……words……”

And while I could tell another dozen stories about my experiences thus far in the 2018 condo market, I want to show you what happened in the condo market last year.

More specifically, I want to show you what happened in the condo market last year, and contrast that with what happened in the housing market overall.

Take a look at the following chart.

On the left, we have the “Average GTA Sale Price,” which is the most-used metric of the Toronto market. This includes every single sale, for every type of property.

On the right, we have the “Average Sale Price – 416 Condo,” which is only looking at condominium sales, and only in the 416:

Some of you will choose to analyze this data at length, and I welcome your own interpretations.

The %Monthly refers to the increase/decrease in month-over-month price, and the %Yearly is obviously the same for year-over-year. Those percentages refer back to prices not shown on the chart.

As we all know, the Toronto real estate market in the spring of 2017 was probably the hottest 4-month period on record.

Look at the month of February, where we saw the average home price appreciate 12.0% alone.

Again, there are reasons for this.

January is typically slow, without a lot of new listings, and much of the inventory is “junk” that’s held over from the previous year. So to suggest that every property in the city was selling for 12% more in February than in January is misguided.

But taking these numbers at face-value, and comparing the overall market to that of the condo market, we can see how the condo market has risen to its current value.

First and foremost, I don’t put much stock into the month of December. Nobody lists real estate for sale in the month of December, if they can help it. Much of what is sold is simply the leftovers, but I included the month just so you could see how we came into 2017.

The start to 2017 was fast and furious, as noted in this space many times before. And it was the freehold market that did most of the work, as you can see from a comparison between the overall GTA market compared to the 416 condo market.

The average home price increased 5.2% in January, but the average 416 condo price only added 1.0%.

And then in February, as mentioned above, we saw a whopping 12.0% gain in the overall GTA home price, as the 416 condo market lagged behind at 9.3%.

But this is where thing started to change.

March saw another 4.4% added to the overall market, but it was outpaced by the 416 condo market, which added 6.8%.

Then in April, when the overall market stopped on a dime around mid-month, we saw only 0.5% added to the overall market, and yet the 416 condo market kept moving – adding 5.1%.

Everything dropped thereafter, but the condo market didn’t decrease in line with the overall market average.

May saw a -6.6% drop in the GTA home price, and only -2.3% in the 416 condo market.

Those numbers were -8.8% and -2.1% respectively in June.

And then -6.4% and -3.7% respectively in July.

Then in August, as the GTA overall price dropped -1.9%, the 416 condo market actually increased by 1.4%.

Come September, when most home-buyers were back out again in full-force, the overall GTA average increased 5.6%, compared to a more modest 2.6% increase in the 416 condo market.

The finish to 2017 was somewhat similar for both numbers, after a more balanced couple of months.

For the month of December, 2017, the “Average GTA Sale Price” was up 0.62%, from December of 2016.

For the month of December, 2017, the “Average 416 Condo Sale” was up 14.1%, from December of 2016.

That, in my mind, tells the story of the current condominium market in the central core.

The entire market shot up like a cannon to start the year, but as things levelled off in the overall market, the condo market just kept going.

And as is usually the case, it’s the lowest-priced, easiest-to-acquire properties that outperform, as there is more demand.

You can see from the chart below that the average 416 condo sale is up 2.0% in January, compared to a modest increase of 0.2% for the overall GTA market. I expect this trend to continue into February, and if I had to guess, I’d say the average 416 condo sale price will show a 4% increase, month-over-month, when the TREB numbers are released next week.

It’s worth noting that a 6.4% increase would take us back to the average price in April of 2017, which represents the “peak,” and I would expect this to be met by the end of March. Hell, the February data might show it’s already passed.

I’ll leave you with this final thought, because I know people love when I compare Toronto to New York city.

The average price per square foot for condos and co-op apartments (they’re grouped together, unfortunately, otherwise the number would be far higher), in 2017 was $1,775 USD, or approximately $2,272 CDN, to compare to our market.

“Luxury” properties, which is basically anything being built new, averaged $2,978 per square foot in 2017, or $3,812 CDN.

I’m not suggesting that Toronto, is in any way, shape, or form, comparable to that of prime New York City.

But it sure makes for an interesting discussion…

The post The 1-Bedroom Condo Market Is On Fire! appeared first on Toronto Real Estate Property Sales & Investments | Toronto Realty Blog by David Fleming.

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Housing Market Slowing Down?

In this video I discuss is the housing market slowing? As a mortgage broker who has worked with thousands of buyers, I feel like I can get a feel for buyer sentiment and market trends before the data hits the radar of analysts. This video is my hunch and my “feel” for what is going on. Please comment below how you feel about your market and let's discuss I love real estate and everything that has to do with real estate investing mortgage, and personal finance. If you enjoyed this video and found value, please consider subscribing! This time last year, housing industry insiders were predicting that the market would collapse under the weight of the pandemic. The opposite happened. Even as the economy suffered its worst year since World War II, the housing market boomed. But that doesn’t mean all is well. Rising prices have masked but not eliminated longstanding problems and vulnerabilities at the heart of America’s housing market. Most urgently, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—the government-sponsored enterprises that own or guarantee roughly half the $12 trillion mortgage market—lack the capital to survive the next inevitable downturn in home prices. The good news is that unlike the crisis in 2008, should the GSEs fail again, creditors, rather than taxpayers, can absorb the losses. That’s because the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which I direct, completed a new rule last month that creates a process to end taxpayer bailouts of the GSEs once and for all. Housing Market Slowing Down? By requiring the GSEs to maintain credible resolution plans known as “living wills,” the new rule will enable a failing GSE to be restructured without risk to business continuity or America’s mortgage market. Similar to the requirements put in place by the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. under the Dodd-Frank Act, the resolution plans will facilitate rapid and orderly resolution if necessary. For the first time in history, the GSEs are required to demonstrate how, in the event of insolvency, core business lines and charters would be maintained to support the housing-finance system without extraordinary government assistance. By establishing the rules of the road in insolvency, these living wills give future investors the information they need to price risk appropriately. This is a prerequisite for the GSEs to raise private capital, which is key to the housing market’s long-term stability. The housing market is hot — but is it too hot? That’s the question a lot of Americans appear to be asking themselves. Data from Google GOOGL, +2.21% underscore the concerns that many people have about the state of the market. Searches for the phrase, “When is the housing market going to crash,” are up 2,450% over the past month. Similarly, Americans are searching in droves for explanations about why the housing market is so hot and why home prices are rising, Google reported. Americans’ concerns are perhaps a natural by-product of today’s extremely competitive market, economists said. “If we see prices rising as quickly as we have, for some people it might spark some memories of the last time around,” Matthew Speakman, an economist with Zillow ZG, +4.69% Z, +4.46%, said. “After robust gains over the past five years, the nationwide nominal house price index is now 40% above its 2012 low-point and 4% above the peak reached in 2006. If 2006 was a historic bubble, then current price levels should be looked at more closely,” according to J.P. Morgan Research. ‘Slowing employment recovery and still-high unemployment levels are not supportive of long-term sustainable price growth.’ — Suzanne Mistretta, senior director at Fitch Ratings For some, today’s real-estate market might feel eerily similar to the market conditions that preceded the Great Recession. Given that the last housing boom triggered a global economic meltdown, these concerns are certainly understandable. But housing experts argue that Americans don’t need to get themselves too worked up — yet. Fitch estimates that national home prices are approximately 5.5% overvalued. “Slowing employment recovery and still-high unemployment levels are not supportive of long-term sustainable price growth,” wrote Suzanne Mistretta, senior director at Fitch Ratings, in a recent research note. And even the more optimistic forecasts from within the industry don’t see current prices lasting. Housing Market Slowing Down? “We’re not going to see a crash in the housing market, but we are expecting some cooling on the really unsustainable growth rates that we saw, particularly in 2020,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. “When home prices are growing faster than incomes, ultimately that is an unsustainable trend.” What’s going on in the housing market? Housing Market Slowing Down? A year ago, when COVID-19 cases first skyrocketed across the U.S., the home-buying market came to a screeching halt as people were advised to stay home to avoid getting sick. At the time, it seemed the housing market was poised for a downturn. What the News Means for You and Your Money Housing Market Slowing Down? Instead, the opposite occurred. When real-estate transactions were allowed to resume, Americans flocked to buy homes. With jobs turning remote and schools becoming virtual, families sought more space in the suburbs. Some city residents tired of their cramped apartments and decided to make a permanent move to more rural areas, while others merely opted to purchase second homes to escape to amid the stay-at-home orders. Fitch calculates that U.S. home prices in a quarter of the country’s metropolitan statistical areas are more than 10% overvalued. With the sudden crush of people seeking to buy homes, prices skyrocketed. By November, home prices were rising at the fastest pace since the Great Recession, and price appreciation has yet to slow. The demand for housing also triggered a building craze. Last year saw a 12% gain in the construction of single-family homes, Dietz said. The sudden increase in home-building activity has since caused a surge in the prices for lumber, driving up the prices of new homes even higher. Fitch calculates that U.S. home prices in a quarter of the country’s metropolitan statistical areas are more than 10% overvalued. Home prices in Idaho (30%-34%) and Nevada (25%-29%) are “becoming more unsustainably inflated while Texas (15%-19%) has become frothier over the last year. “ What’s more, markets like Rhode Island and Washington (both 10%-14% overvalued) that have traditionally experienced more sustainable house-price increases “are now seeing similar disconnects between home price growth and economic fundamentals in place to support the rate of growth,” Fitch added. Strong housing demand is pandemic-related But experts are hesitant to make apples-to-apples comparisons between this housing market fueled in part by pandemic-related demand and low-interest rates, and the one that preceded the Great Recession. The circumstances contributing to today’s booming housing market are very different from what precipitated the last boom and bust cycle. In particular, lenders are being far more careful. The housing boom that prompted the Great Recession stemmed from the rise of sub-prime lending. Banks and other mortgage lenders were originating riskier loans — often requiring little in the way of documentation from borrowers to prove they could afford their monthly mortgage payments. Many loans also featured adjustable rates that ballooned after an introductory period. At the time, homeowners were also treating their homes like ATMs, refinancing into these risky loans to cash out the equity they built up. Experts are hesitant to make apples-to-apples comparisons between this housing market fueled in part by pandemic-related demand and low-interest rates, and the one that preceded the Great Recession. — Danielle Hale, chief economist of Realtor.com By comparison, today’s lending practices are far more conservative. “Banks and mortgage lenders have been disciplined in extending credit, a very different approach than we saw in the previous housing boom,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist of Realtor.com. “In fact, banks have tightened underwriting requirements in the wake of lockdowns last year, so buyers today are more qualified than they’ve been in quite some time.” As evidence of that, mortgage lenders are offering loans to borrowers with higher credit scores. Mortgage credit availability plummeted in the immediate wake of the pandemic to the lowest levels in six years and has only slightly recovered since according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mortgage credit availability plummeted in the immediate wake of the pandemic to the lowest levels in six years and has only slightly recovered since. With banks being so careful, the demand seen in the housing market today is much more organic. And the lifestyle changes brought about by the pandemic is not the only reason why demand has surged. “Current demand is built on a significant growing demographic wave, as we have many millennials turning 30 — a key age for first-time home buying,” Hale said. The common wisdom in real estate is that people are primarily motivated to buy a home not because of low-interest rates or the investment potential, but because of life changes. Millennials are the largest generation — and they are getting married and having kids. As they experience these major milestones, owning a home is becoming a bigger priority. Home shortages push prices higher Florida, a housing market that was hit hard by the Great Recession, is also experiencing potential overheating, according to Ken. H. Johnson, a real-estate economist and associate dean in FAU’s College of Business. Single-family homes, condominiums, townhomes and co-ops are more than 17% above their long-term fundamental house-price growth, but the extent of overpricing of these homes remains far below the 65% during the 2006 peak of overvaluations just before the Great Recession. The big problem for home buyers right now is that there are not many properties to go around. As with the surge in demand, the rise in home prices isn’t artificial, unless you consider the coronavirus pandemic a temporary and/or artificial force fueling house prices. “The heady home price appreciation during the pandemic certainly has some frothiness to it, but there is a substance not far beneath that froth,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president of market economics at Auction.com, a real-estate platform that specializes in foreclosed and bank-owned properties. Many home builders were burned by the last housing bust. Prior to it, some companies had engaged in speculative building practices, so when the market bottomed out they found themselves saddled with newly-constructed homes and few interested buyers. Single-family homes, condominiums, townhomes and co-ops are more than 17% above their long-term fundamental house-price growth. — Ken. H. Johnson, a real-estate economist and associate dean in FAU’s College of Business. As a result, home-building activity slowed considerably. Homebuilders have only ramped their operations back up in the last couple of years, experts say. In the meantime, many Americans were busy getting married and having kids — creating a huge gap between supply and demand. A recent report from Freddie Mac estimated that the U.S. is 4 million homes short of being able to meet the demand of home buyers. That figure has grown by 50% since 2018. Making matters worse, would-be home sellers have remained on the sidelines, constricting the availability of existing homes for sale. Some sellers are likely still nervous about the health risks associated with putting their home on the market amid a pandemic. Others are likely dismayed because they’re having just as hard a time finding a new home to live in, causing them to delay listing their home for sale. Will COVID-19 spark a rise in foreclosures? The housing market may be on solid ground when it comes to the demand for homes and the fast pace of home-price appreciation, but some risks to its health remain. The biggest of these might be the ongoing forbearance situation in the mortgage market. As the economy went into a downward spiral at the start of the pandemic, lawmakers and financial regulators quickly instructed mortgage lenders and servicers to offer relief to borrowers who may have lost work or income. In particular, Americans could request forbearance on their mortgage — allowing them to make reduced mortgage payments or skip them altogether — essentially without any questions asked. At the same time, a moratorium on foreclosures was enacted. By late June, more than 4 million Americans were in forbearance on their mortgage. Millions of homeowners have since exited forbearance and successfully resumed making their monthly payments. However, the federal government has extended both the forbearance program and foreclosure moratorium on multiple occasions. As of mid-April, roughly 2.3 million homeowners were still skipping mortgage payments, according to an estimate from the Mortgage Bankers Association. As of mid-April, around 2.3 million homeowners were still skipping their mortgage payments, according to one estimate. It’s not clear how many of those homeowners will be able to eventually restart paying off their mortgage, and the fate of the housing market could hinge on regulators’ success in preventing a wave of foreclosures. Having all of these homes go into default at once “would tank the market,” said Joan Trice, CEO of the Collateral Risk Network, an organization of real estate appraisers and risk managers. “The forbearance rate is two times what it was in the last crisis,” Trice added. “It would be chaos and devastating to the market.” The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau recently proposed extending the pause on foreclosures until 2022 and making it easier for borrowers to request changes to their home loans that would allow them to afford to stay in their homes. The consumer-watchdog agency also suggested it was going to scrutinize lenders’ and servicers’ practices to protect homeowners. Plus, regulations introduced under President Obama make pursuing a foreclosure more onerous than it was during the last housing downturn. ‘The forbearance rate is two times what it was in the last crisis.’ — Joan Trice, CEO of the Collateral Risk Network “Combine all of this and the risk of large-scale foreclosures diminishes substantially,” said Edward Pinto, co-director of the American Enterprise Institute’s Center on Housing Markets and Finance. To the extent that some homeowners may still go into default, it would not necessarily be widespread. Forbearance rates are higher among people who took out loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration, or FHA. Housing Market Slowing Down? “The biggest risk lies with Federal Housing Administration (FHA)-backed loans originated since 2014,” Blomquist said. These loans were riskier, featuring higher debt-to-income ratios. Many of these borrowers relied on down-payment assistance to purchase their homes. “Those FHA loans will be the most likely to fall into foreclosure post-pandemic, and markets with high concentrations of these loans could suffer as a result,” Blomquist said. The housing markets that have the highest risk based on FHA delinquency rates as of February include Atlanta, Houston Chicago and Dallas, according to research from the American Enterprise Institute. The good news for homeowners in a bind right now is that, generally speaking, they have built up equity in their homes. And given the high demand for housing nationwide, housing experts say that most of these families should be able to sell their homes — even for a profit — and return to renting. What happens if mortgage rates rise? Housing Market Slowing Down? Based on past econometric modeling, J.P. Morgan Research found that “a reasonable rule of thumb” is a 100 basis-point decline in mortgage rates is associated with a 10% increase in home sales. But, experts caution, the opposite is also true. The difficult forbearance situation isn’t the only threat to the housing market. Indeed, with home prices having risen as high as they have, many buyers are walking a fine line when it comes to being able to afford to purchase a property. Rising mortgage rates threaten that equilibrium. “An extremely rapid and sharp rise in mortgage rates could cool demand so abruptly that it quickly shifts the market from boom to bust,” Blomquist said. Most housing experts project that mortgage rates will only rise somewhat modestly this year. Interest rates have rebounded from the record lows set at the start of the year, but in recent works, they settled around 3%. Should rates resume their upward climb, home price growth is likely to slow in response, experts say. And that could give some buyers an opening, as affordability pushes others out of the market for the time being. We Buy Houses World Housing Market Slowing Down? #we #buy #houses #love #sell #realestate #instagood #homes #you #realtor #house #usa #home #us #invest #luxury #are #miami #instagram #architecture #the #realestateagent #hiphop #rent #luxuryhomes #beautiful #design #artist #sale #happy Read the full article

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