Hold your memes and your tears!
I wasn’t going to do this, but since half of this site is having a mental breakdown over the attack on the Iranian general, I’ll give my luke-warm take on what realistically might happen. I’m just an undergrad, but I’ve at least studied the Middle East more than the average person. This won’t be some upstanding political analysis but maybe it’ll calm y’all down a tad.
- WWIII is not starting any time soon.
Iran is run by Some People No One Likes, but not by idiots. Directly attacking the US on their ground means signing your own death sentence. Ask Iraq. They will definitely mobilise the militias they have all over the Middle East to attack US bases, but I doubt they’ll attack themselves. This will likely have the US retaliate against those militias at first. Threats will be exchanged, diplomacy will intensify, and the UN will call on both parties to ease tensions. If that all goes down the drain, then maybe the US will invade after some more escalations. But I doubt Iran will let it get that far. Because, you know, it wants to LIVE.
- Invasion will probably not involve a draft.
If the US invades Iran, then I don’t expect there to be a draft. Why? They’re fucking unpopular, just like the invasion would be. If the government thought it would be necessary, they won’t invade. Secondly, already without a draft, the US army is a bit bigger than Iran’s and US equipment is superior. Plus, I doubt the US will go in there without allies (or UN permission, because that would mean Russia (and/or China) could ally with Iran, which would be fucking bad for the US), so then it’s overpowering strength would make a draft even more superfluous.
- Nuclear weapons?!?!?!?
A. Iran probs doesn’t have nuclear weapons.
B. It won’t use them if it does, because it isn’t a fucking death cult and US nuclear weapons could vanquish it within seconds.
- Why is it still bad?
What we can definitely expect is the disruption of the Middle East, as rising tensions will probably cause Iranian/Shi’ite militias like Hezbollah to become more active. Expect demonstrations, US embassies getting evacuated, and terrorist attacks. The latter might also increase in the US itself. I know that is scary, but please keep in mind that terrorism aimed at Iranian mosques will probably also increase. You’re in this together, don’t let anything tear you apart. I also truly feel for those whose family is serving in the military right now. If they can, getting out now is the best option. This would not be a just war; it would be a needless escalation caused by incompetent leaders. Mostly, I feel for the populations of Iran and Iraq. The latter will likely serve as an unofficial springboard for US attacks and be a target for Iranian retaliation. But an invasion would be incredibly damaging. Infrastructure would be irreparably damaged and ordinary people will die of starvation, bombings, and preventable diseases. Mass displacement would be inevitable. Political chaos would ensue after the war, which could culminate in some more terrorist groups and/or civil war. There’s a lot one can say about Iran, but it is a relatively stable country. Additionally, regime change imposed by the US hasn’t exactly led to peace and democracy before. Finally, I’m worried specifically about Israel and Palestine. Israel will probably come under threat of increased terrorist attacks, which will hurt its people, which subsequently will hurt Palestinians as another right-wing government is elected.
- What you can do:
Vote. Fucking vote this war-mongering fool out of the highest office on earth lest he destroys it. Also, speak to others about the situation. Educate yourself so you can educate each other. Let this be Trump’s self-inflicted last straw. And try to prevent Islamophobia wherever you can. This is not a fight against Muslims; it is a fight between two idiotic governments, both extremist in their own way.
Protest. I fucking guarantee you international protests will erupt if this turns into a war and we better join in. Let’s make this as big as Iraq, let’s make this as big as Vietnam. You do not need to die in this war. We will not allow it.
Calm down. We can start pulling our hairs out if and when war becomes likely, but at the moment it’s just not likely.
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