#the higher the fewer

[andromeda3116]

had a lengthy conversation with a coworker yesterday, and she's sort of the... not-insane kind of conservative. the sort that's lived like this her whole life and seen only the bad sides, heard and taken to heart only the bad-faith interpretations of everything. and in that environment, yes, i can see the appeal of libertarianism, of withdrawing, of "burn it all down" and she is intelligent and thoughtful enough that i feel it's worth having these conversations with her, that i might actually be able to have an impact.

and i think i made headway! i told her about people tens of thousands of years ago making toys for their kids that look like the ones we make today, about how cave paintings come alive in firelight, about a healed femur from thousands and thousands of years ago proving that humans have always cared and helped one another, and yes, of course some people are awful, but they do not define us. and i think i made her think about it when she said that she believes we should allocate money to communities to better help one another and i was like "how is that not a government?" and she paused and then said "it's just that it's gotten too big, it's the bureaucracy that's killing us" and like. i can see that. i think there are ways to solve that problem, but it's not a fundamentally flawed belief. (again, sane. intelligent, educated, willing to consider alternate points of view.)

and i think that a lot of this... madness of the modern world is rooted in fear and despair and isolation and the sense that we've become completely disconnected from ourselves and our history, and we need to remember that this is not true. or -- it's only true if we choose to make it true, if we let it be true.

this does not have to be our legacy. this rage, this despair, this does not have to destroy us.

#humanism #again yes of course there are awful people out there #and people who have been too brainwashed by the cult to consider that it could be wrong #but - loud as they are - they are fewer than they seem #the world is not completely fucked and we are not a hopeless cause #and the people who say it is are either peddling their own snake oil cure #or wanting to drag you down into their despair with them #nihilism is useless and counterproductive #i don't believe there's anything out there but chaos and we are but a tiny creature on a small planet orbiting an average star #one of trillions; and of course it's easy to think ''we are too small for anything we do to matter'' but. no? #nothing is too small to matter #i mean. what do you even mean by ''what matters''? there is no ultimate goal or purpose of humanity #it's like the concept of ''more evolved'' species as though evolution is a ladder but it's not. there is no higher being to become. #there is no one holding the keys to the great answers of the universe; or if there is or ever will be it's just us #these tags have meandered beyond the point but ultimately i'm just trying to say that it's never ever over until you give up #(and even then you can usually find a way to un-give up)

[naddpod-arc-tournament]

No PCs because we all know Fia would dominate

Also go vote in the final poll of the Eldermourne Tournament Arc!

#naddpod #not another dnd podcast #eldermourne #brian murphy #emily axford #eldermourne has fewer characters but a higher percentage of them are lesbians imo #the two that almost made the cut were moxora and big rex #but with moxora tbh I only get lesbian energy off her as meriwyn the mad mage not as moxora or heradecia #and I feel big rex & horseshit had a thing so #btw Moria is NOT a joke just as Dancesaw was not a joke in the Bahumia one lol

[eachuisge-cc]

believe me I would love to make every possible permutation of a thing to fit the wants/needs of as many people as possible but I am only one guy (or possibly one carnivorous horse, who can say) and cc making isn't even my main thing so I gotta be realistic with what I can maintain. which is why I'm not doing both versions of the white coat and also why I'm semi-retiring the human anatomy skins once the feline version is out.

#I would rather have fewer things that are higher quality/better maintained #than a bunch of mediocre neglected things #that's the trade off unfortunately

[sergeifyodorov]

Could u talk about how Carolina achieves goalie haven!!!!!! I am so intrigued sjdhsysosjshs (especially bc one of my fav players is an occasional Carolina goalie 🤭🤭🤭)

aaa Yes. sorry this took so long!!

One of the biggest questions among analysts in hockey is: how much of a goalie's quality is determined by the team they play behind? If you move a goalie to a different team and their numbers change drastically, is it the goalie not adjusting well to the move or is it the team? How separable is a goalie from his skaters?

So, we're going to talk about mathematics. Not in any technical terms, because it is two in the morning as I write this, but just sort of general stats stuff. In hockey (and in other sports but we're talking about hockey,) there is a metric called expected goals, or xG for short.

The general gist of xG, for the uninitiated: it is a made up number that you cannot watch the game and materialize, unlike shots or goals or times your favourite player was shown close up on camera -- you need a computer to generate it. There's also multiple different xG models, since every stat bro seems to have his own. However, they all function in a pretty similar way: determine the odds a shot goes in the net based off its location (on ice), its location (relative to the net), and its location (relative to other skaters, who may be inclined to block the shot in order to prevent this expected goal from becoming an actual one.)

Expected goals are, for lack of a better term, a smoother way of determining the way a game really went than its result. You ever watch a game where your team was in the offensive zone the whole time, just totally dominating play, but a couple of bad bounces and dumb mistakes means you lost? The expected goals might tell a different story.

Back to Carolina. Someone in their front office, many eons ago (I got seriously into hockey only last season, so I can't give you a date) realized this: over the course of one game, anything can happen, but over the course of a dozen? 82? the numbers tend to line up. So the most guaranteed way to win, at least through the regular season, is to find a way to jack up your xG and drop down your opponent's. And the way they do this is with Corsi.

If you're still uninitiated, Corsi is essentially the total amount of shot attempts: shots on goal plus blocked shots plus misses. Corsi ratios actually tend to line up very similarly with xG ratios: if you have twice the shot attempts of your opponent, odds are you'll have twice the goals. Quantity over quality!

The on-ice way they do this is with a very, very high-structure game: your defenders are there to dump the puck in and then make sure it doesn't get dumped out, and your forwards are there to chase the puck and pepper the opposing goalie with softies until he slips up. In the defensive zone, they hound the opponent's forwards, forcing them to either lob a soft one on net or give up the puck. Carolina is currently third in shots for per game (34.91), and dead first in shots against (25.74).

So: say you're a goalie on a team that routinely gives up 45 shots a game (hello John Gibson!) versus a goalie on a team that only gives up 25. That's a much, much lower workload -- on average one shot you'll have to stop every two and a half minutes or so (although shots as a rule tend to come in chunks, so the standard deviation is very high here.) And because you'll have this lower workload, odds on you'll be better rested for every shot, thereby being fresher and more likely to stop it.

Also, because of how tight Carolina is in the defensive zone, very few of these shots against are of significant quality -- they rarely give up breakaways, which are typically the major generator of high-danger chances.

All in all: a Carolina goalie is going to have a good time, not necessarily because they are a good goalie, but because they are in Carolina -- facing few chances and especially few high-danger ones allows the goalie an easier time stopping pucks, which boosts their stats.

#also i LOVE petya kochetkov btw #and freddie #carolina hurricanes #some more stats: carolina is first in corsi for %. first in fenwick (unblocked attempts) for %. #first in shots for and xG for % (and it's not especially close.) #first in high danger chances against (where lower is better.) second team is min #which has allowed 14 more highdanger chances against and created TWO HUNDRED FEWER high danger chances for. #carolina is the prototypical 'analytics darling' team. which means it shelters all of its players! this is good and cool #the major downside to this is that this is a highly random style: you rely less on pure skill and more on systems #so regression to the mean can be your best friend. playoffs can be difficult (because of the higher win % necessary to succeed) #and sometimes you end up with a calgary situation. who are also top five in most of the metrics given but are out of a playoff spot #those poor mfers ended up in the tail of the normal distribution #asks #hockey strategy

[lassieposting]

You must tell me how is goes the handbook Lassie

Here have another "growing up" gif, Nef this time

#skulduggery pleasant #nefarian serpine #the last one is modern-day nef so the one before that is how he would've looked when he killed skug #anyway do yall ever get emotional about how they would've both barely have aged since their Surge at that point #they would've both still looked like 19/20 #thats like. kids killing kids #anyway yeah have Twink Himbo Prime #this one has fewer frames than skug's so nef gets higher quality

[fbj723]

combat system isnt working properly so i was looking around to see what i need to do once its fixed and oh my god

why are there so many battle stages

the fact that by ch2 you also need teams at lvl20+ is insane like idk how to get more of solomon's tears aside from dailies and mission pass

i just wanna get to ch3 to see my bbg mammon is that too much to ask for😭😭

#also i have like no a+ rank or higher water chars so fire enemies throw me off so hard #but srsly there needs to be fewer fighting stages this is insane for just CHAPTER 2 #i fear what chapter 3 looks like after this omg #fbj rambles #whb

[deus-ex-mona]

kawareeeeeeeeeee~~~~~~~~~

#(aka me when my acid burns randomly start throbbin’ when i bend over :( it’s very inconvenient) #in other news ​this week absolutely s u c k s can i trade it in for a better one— #first there was that acid spill. which. like. ouch???? but the mark is still there and is apparently very obvious. which sucks #then the day after the acid attack™️ meself and one other guy were called out under the assumption that we were doing unnecessary overtime #with the ‘unnecessary’ part running off the basis that there’s a low sample volume bc one single monday had fewer samples than usual #and we were singled out j u s t because our taxi claims for last month were through the roof due to the fact that we live across the country #like??? hellooo????? why are you treating it like it’s my fault that i have to pay upwards of $24 (at least) to get home??? #and??? excuse????? why are you extrapolating the previous day’s sample volume to the previous month’s workload as a whole???? #but. m a n. the way the mildly higher up lady abruptly shouted at me for asking a question just. pissed me off. for some reason. #she was talking in circles regarding the future of our taxi claims #so i asked if we (now) had to submit a second claims form for the transport company dudes to compensate us #and she yelled at me to stop talking before i could finish :( sadded and annoyed tbh #though i get the feeling that she hasn’t liked me ever since i left some results she asked for between her desk and some other guy’s desk #and someone else had placed their notebook or sth atop it so she couldn’t find it. and she blamed me for it. ha. #that was a few weeks ago though. so. hm. i wonder if she’s still mad about that… #either way. i applied for a couple of jobs that are closer to my place bc screw travelling across the country for an hour every day #s c r e w hour-long train rides i’d rather sleep #i prolly won’t even get the other jobs but. oh well. that’s life ig

[pepprs]

like at some point i have ti admit it to myself. it’s a 2am delirious ramble after a hard sad day. but i don’t think i like my job very much actually. i mean i do i love it and it was made for me and i made it for me too. but how come something that i love and was made for me and that i made hurts so bad and so primally? how can i like something that brings me so much stress and grief and despair so regularly?

#purrs #i think it’s just been a hard year and a long pandemic. but transience and institutional politics and hierarchy and ambiguity are things you #just have to deal with i. an education job / setting and yet theyre fucking killing me. they killed me as a student and they’re killing me #even more as a staff member. i don’t think it’s that much to ask. i just want to have all the people i love in one #place. and to be on the same page all the time. shoulder to shoulder. ts all ive wanted and it’s been 5 years of wanting it so badly im #mentally and in some ways physically sick from the lengths ive gone to get it. like it’s come at a high price and i have it except for when #i don’t which is a lot of the time. idk what im saying. i just… im doing it backwards. im not in higher Ed because i want to be a student #affairs professional or ride up the ranks or whatever. im in it because i love this specific organization and helped to make it from the #start and the only reason i want to rise up the ranks is so i have fewer and fewer reasons to (doubt i’ll) get shaken off. but it can’t ever #be the same as it was. i miss my friends. i miss life before covid and i miss life before july 5 2022. i miss futures i didn’t get to live. #and i need to get over it and just be where i am and be brave and strong and pull myself backup again and make new friends and grow. but its #fucking hard. and im tired. everything has sucked the life out of me #delete later

[thatrandombystander]

GSC Pop Up Parade figs continue to look cheap as hell with their sculpts and paints imo. No way am I going to pay to buy this TriStamp Vash. I'll wait for the prototyped Kotobukiya scale.

#flat paint weird hair meh pose no real sculpt detail. #i continue to hold my stance of prefering fewer but higher quality scales than getting cheap stuff like pop up parades. #then you just have all this cheap stuff taking up all your space. #ramblings of a bystander #trigun

[kirnet]

I know we’ve all talked this point to death but it’s wild to me that the plan is 7 books. Like, a 7 book series is a LOT for plot heavy novel series with just one linear path instead of a massive undertaking for an if. I expect that from a dense fantasy or sci fi series. Something that has a lot of plot to develop and explore. But a romance??

Having plot as a means to an end for romance tropes is fine. I don’t think anyone goes into a romance series for plot, they go for character and dynamics and tropes. But then how do u justify 7 books…

#like I have had my criticisms of the plot since I first played book 1. I’ve always just been here for tea and the character dynamics. #which is fine and fun! #and like coding an if with all these different storylines and options is genuinely incredible and I don’t wanna disrespect the amount of #time and work the author put in. you don’t see me coding one lol #but on that same note: distilling the plot down to fewer books with more tight writing would save sooo much effort and time right? #books 2 and 3 could be so easily combined. they both focus on the trappers. you can do a whole thing where everyone thinks falk is taking #people but he thinks the agency is taking people and gasp! it was all a set up and the auctioneer was manipulating everyone the whole time! #two villains! higher stakes! in one book! less time coding and editing! #idk it’s just a bizarre choice to make to me. probably this was planned as an actual novel series before being turned into an if #I’ve heard people say that fs route felt like an afterthought (haven’t played thru it) but that’s probably bc they were designed to be a #bestie character to the mc or something like that. I’ve heard similar criticisms of Nate but again. idk. #anyways. if u read all this ily #ramblings

[foldingfittedsheets]

Layla, as a name idea for the shapeshifter

HMM. This might be my front runner, she does seem like a Layla

#ask ffs #I find it funny there’s a lot fewer suggestions for the vamp #the shifter just had higher charisma which is as I intended

[colorisbyshe]

i know we talk about the damage of algorithms and constantly scrolling and short-length media on The Youth (but also everyone)

but i also think one thing that is under discussed is the availability of online shopping on younger and younger ages, especially with cheaper wares, ESPECIALLY in conjunction with the algorithms and constant scrolling and short length media

like we talk about how loot box/gacha-gambling is dangerous but at this point i think impulse shopping online is feeding into the same base instinct. especially when people will buy like $3 hoodies and treat it like a gamble—like maybe it’s totally shit or maybe it’s actually pretty well made and is just cheap because of explored labor.

growing up, online shopping wasn’t really accessible at all besides for really niche ware. you had to order through catalogs and even when online shopping was accessible, kids weren’t allowed to buy their own shit. the most onlike shopping a lot of us were allowed was like a gift card for itunes.

if you wanted something, you had hope it was in a store you hoped you were allowed to go to. or had to wait for a gift-receiving holiday or had to ask… and even if it was ordered online, shipping meant it might take WEEKS to arrive.

kids being exposed to instant gratification shopping, through places like shein and temu and ali express where you’re buying junk AT BEST and like slave-labor goods at worst (often both), often with shopping profiles of their own, not through their parents… is going to ramp up over-consumerism and micro trends even more

and with how bad financial literacy is and general nihilism is (why save when the world is burning and you’ll never own a house anyways)

i’m just… concerned. not even saying i’m immune to the behaviour im criticized and worried about, btw; though, i will say, i don’t shop with the companies listed.

#i do think learning to save up for fewer but higher quality #items is a vital skill we’re all losing #and i understand when you’re broke that isn’t really that possible #but even stopping to save up for a middle tier shirt over like a 5 cent temu shirt is better #sometimes you do have to wait and save

[the-manderville-mambo]

It's always grumpy healer this and salt mage that but nothing has filled me with more rage than tanking an alliance raid

#ffxiv #pro tip: if you are an ast at 34 or higher use your goddamn aspected benefic #and for the love of god if your alliance is main tanking cerberus don't go into the belly as a healer #don't even get me started on the dumbass tank dick measuring contests that happen #just turn your tank stance off once you're settled in at the top of the aggro list #it causes fewer problems

[jonny-versace]

Doyle was the best thing about ATS once he was no more I tapped out of watching it just couldn't hold my interest with the other characters and for me the stories weren't as strong as Buffy. That was definitely more my vibe. Shame about his exit tragic were the circumstances as his friendship with Angel and slow burn romance with Cordy was cute and they had good chemistry.

Considering he was only in a handful of eps in the first season I suppose it's a testament to how great the character/actor was that his impact feels so much bigger, and as somebody who finds Wesley to be the absolute worst even in his short stint on Buffy, let's just say he wasn't an acceptable replacement for me lol. I do love ATS still though, despite how much more questionable some of the material is than Buffy *cough Cordelia cough*, the highs make up for the lows I think (Darla and Drusilla!), and I actually think it has a stronger final season/series finale than Buffy, but it's a tougher sell than Buffy for sure. I sometimes wonder how it would've been if Glen had managed to beat his addictions and they'd brought back Doyle like the plan originally was, but I guess that's an unanswerable.

#soph tag #i sometimes think ATS has higher highs than BTVS but theyre much fewer and futher between #and the lows are muuuuuuch lower #but anyway yes allen francis doyle you crazy bisexual irish spiky demon we miss you