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junker-town · 5 years

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How the Thunder can rebuild without tanking

The new-look Thunder are full of possibilities.

The Thunder can be competitive even in a rebuild.

In early July, Paul George was two months removed from his 29th birthday and had just wrapped up the best season of his career when he requested a trade from the Oklahoma City Thunder. He was one season into a four-year deal. Overnight, Oklahoma City’s immediate championship goals died.

Russell Westbrook was dealt to the Houston Rockets one week later, and even though Sam Presti’s combined return was held in high regard, it also helped create two new superpowers in Los Angeles and Houston that instantly showed how wide the gap between the Thunder and a title is. It reminded him, a general manager who’s acquired and lost James Harden, Kevin Durant, George, and Westbrook, how easy it is for carefully laid plans to implode.

Oklahoma City just lost two All-NBA players in their respective primes. They’re set up for a rebuild. But instead of tanking towards ground zero, the Thunder should go the other way, be as competitive as possible, fight for a playoff spot (a long shot but FiveThirtyEight currently gives them better playoff odds than the Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs), and reassemble on the fly.

In an NBA that seemingly changes every month, the Thunder can (ironically) take a big-picture page from the pre-Harden Rockets, tread water, and stay in the perpetual hunt for whichever young star next wants out, be it Karl-Anthony Towns, Devin Booker, whoever. Until then, they can afford to endure middling outcomes, knowing they already have one 21-year-old blue-chip guard and a larger collection of trade assets than anybody else.

Tanking isn’t in their best interest, particularly when it’s unknown how their fanbase will react to a first dip into irrelevance

Before we go on, let’s summarize what the Thunder actually received this summer: Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, three unprotected first-round picks from the Clippers (in 2022, 2024, and 2026), two first-round picks from the Miami Heat (unprotected in 2021 and lottery-protected in 2023), and two top-four-protected first-round picks from the Houston Rockets (in 2024 and 2026). As a cherry on top, there are four additional pick swaps, with LAC in 2023 and 2025, and Houston in 2021 and 2025. There’s also a top-10 protected first-round pick in 2020 from the Denver Nuggets, who traded it for Jerami Grant.

That’s three quality players, eight first-round draft picks, and four pick swaps spread out over seven years. Not bad! For reference, the Boston Celtics received three unprotected first-round picks, one pick swap, and Kris Humphries, Gerald Wallace, Kris Joseph, MarShon Brooks and Keith Bogans for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Jason Terry.

The Celtics wisely used those draft picks as a safety net. They were bad and had no choice but to build themselves back up through the draft, but eventually they made moves to get better in the short-term and straddle two separate timelines. The Thunder can aspire to do the same thing, but—even in a Western Conference that’s never been so punishing—the difference is they may already be good enough to avoid an intentional nosedive.

Assuming they hang on to their veterans, Oklahoma City can be the type of team that rarely beats itself, with more shooting than its recently had, and emboldened contribution from supporting pieces. Most of them are, to varying degrees, established, confident, proud, and growing. Much of their success will ultimately depend on Paul—who’s 34 and hasn’t made an All-Star team since 2016—and how the organization adjusts to such a stark stylistic modification at the point guard position. The downshift from Westbrook’s merciless house fire to Paul’s methodical slow burn may do good for a group that’s viewed chaos as a savior over the past few years.

If Paul ran a successful pick-and-roll while simultaneously typing an email into his iPhone, nobody watching would blink.

The argument for flipping Paul, a psychotically competitive Hall of Famer who’s entering his 15th season, is pretty straightforward. He’s guaranteed $124 million through 2022 and the only player set to earn more money this season is Steph Curry. It’s a bloated salary on a bloated cap sheet. But it’s hard to see any team taking that contract off Presti’s hands without some sort of compensation. (Remember, the Rockets surrendered two first-round picks to get off it.) Also, if winning as many games as they possibly can is the mandate—which it should be—keeping Paul is common sense.

Even though that contract doesn’t align with Paul’s current status, this dude isn’t exactly washed up. Now detached from Houston’s unique, isolation-obsessed approach, there’s an opportunity for Paul to conduct an offense that makes better use of his vision. Three years ago, over half his possessions were finished as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. Last season, they dropped down to 36 percent. Existing as second-fiddle to a perennial MVP candidate will do that, but it’s still a shame to see such blinding skill be underutilized. If Paul ran a successful pick-and-roll while simultaneously typing an email into his iPhone, nobody watching would blink.

Last year, he finished third in assists and averaged 22.5 points and 12.5 assists per 36 minutes when he did not share the floor with Harden. If he’s able to deep-pressure massage the game’s tempo as he has in the past, the Thunder can temporarily make themselves over with a floor general who props those around him up instead of it being the other way around.

Oklahoma City has finished top-five in transition frequency five years in a row—in their entire existence their lowest ranking was seventh—but this year their possessions will be timed with an hourglass. They won’t rely on frenetic pace induced by a rabid, turnover-forcing defense that was addicted to scrambling.

A leisurely approach that defies the rest of the league’s desire to operate at warp speed can be beneficial, for the sake of developing a sensible identity, if nothing else. Instead of crashing the offensive glass, they can be more conservative, hustling back in transition and letting Steven Adams settle into a more natural drop coverage against pick-and-rolls. Attempts at the rim—of which the Thunder have historically surrendered far too often—will drop and long twos will rise. Their quickness and versatility on the wing is convenient, too, particularly if Andre Roberson looks like his old self. (Don’t sleep on them as an Andre Iguodala suitor, either.)

On offense, more ball movement and a steady half-court hand, something Oklahoma City hasn’t employed since Kevin Durant left, won’t be taken for granted by the Thunder’s coaching staff. By finally implementing a new system that better reflects their personnel, shots can be delineated with care. While Paul memorizes every one else’s lines, Westbrook crumples the script into a ball and tries to swallow it. Both are control freaks who like to place their hands around the neck of a possession and squeeze until it turns blue, but Paul does it with a certain charm. He empowers those around him in a way Westbrook does not, and has immediate value off the ball, thanks to his three-point stroke .

Beyond Paul, this team has a few useful players who’ve peaked at a rung just below All-Star consideration, and none overlap. Last season, Gallo solidified himself as an appealing stretch four who 1) plays defense, and 2) draws fouls. He’ll space the floor beside Adams and create his own shots whenever plays break down.

And as someone who, in many ways, is the most important player on the roster, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — the No. 11 pick in the 2018 draft — will nestle in as more of an active participant than subtle observer. As a 20-year-old rookie he pulled off the impossible last year, cementing himself as member of Doc Rivers’ regular and postseason rotation, averaging 10.8 points, making over half his two-point shots, and appearing in every single game. (He was one of 21 players in the entire league to do that.) Gilgeous-Alexander is a 6’6 rubber band whose herky-jerky, meandering drives (often with his left hand) tend to confuse help defenders even more than his own man. Will he skip to the rim, pull back and settle into a pull-up jumper, or fire a cross-court pass?

He needs to be more of a threat behind the three-point line, but his first season was filled with promising samples of a player wise beyond his years, taking what the game is willing to offer. It’ll be interesting to see how much his growth raises the Thunder’s floor and ceiling, considering he’ll have the ball in his hands far more than he did on the Clippers. (Gilgeous-Alexander may also be someone other players—really good ones!—will want to run with someday.)

Depth is an issue, as Mike Muscala and Nerlens Noel are one-dimensional in contrasting ways, while Terrance Ferguson and Hamidou Diallo are absurd athletes who provide more questions than answers. Dennis Schroder is a nightly wild card but also a possible trade chip, should the Thunder want to add more size. And even though first-round pick Darius Bazley is a project, the organization is high on what he brings to the table.

If none of this works, and Oklahoma City falls far behind Sacramento, Dallas, and Minnesota before the All-Star break, Gallo’s expiring contract will be shopped around. But before any games have been played, this intriguing underdog deserves some respect. Tanking isn’t in their best interest, particularly when it’s unknown how their fanbase will react to a first dip into irrelevance. They already have assets. They already have good players. The West is a monster, but for the time being it makes sense for the Thunder to try and slay it.

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