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qqueenofhades · 1 month

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People are apparently saying "well I'm not gonna vote/vote for trump if tik tok is banned!"

I'm pretty sure they were already going to do that, this is just their excuse of the week

But more importantly, if a stupid app matters more to you than the actual lives trump and the republicans will deliberately destroy, well that says more about them don't it?

But wait... I thought they weren't going to vote because of Gaza/because Biden hasn't personally forgiven THEIR student loan/because something something corporate centrism/because something something garble garble??! Does this mean their excuses just change by the week according to whatever's in the headlines and have no actual logical coherence or adherence to a guiding principle? Surely you jest, good internet sir and/or madam. Shocking.

Anyway, also... they realize that this effort is being spearheaded by Republicans and is pretty transparently an attempt to get another huge social media platform (after the Bird App Formerly Known as Twitter) into the ownership of an ex-Trump Cabinet official and an investor group with Russian ties? And that voting for Trump would directly play into those people's hands? And that... wait, never mind. I still expect logic or reason to have any place in this discussion, and it doesn't. Just tell me Why They Aren't Voting For Biden!!! next week and maybe I can get ahead of the curve for once.

This, however, is likewise why I oppose this rushed and Republican-driven move to "ban TikTok!!" in a highly consequential election year and think somebody needs to talk some sense into Biden and/or the Senate that this is a stupid idea and should be shelved (or at the least, heavily revised or modified). Yes, TikTok being owned by a group with Chinese government ties isn't great, but there's no morally pure ultra-megacorp that's going to rush in to fill the void. Forcing the Chinese owners to divest will just create an opening for Trump's ex-Treasury Secretary and his Russian businessmen buddies to step in instead, and I don't know about you, but I don't think that's a net positive in terms of keeping Americans' personal data out of the hands of hostile foreign entities. We already have Musk shilling for the alt-right and the Russian government every chance he gets, using Twitter to prop up their narratives and their operations, and selling TikTok to a Trump/Russian-linked consortium in fucking 2024 would be an incredibly massive own goal and give MAGA and company virtually hegemonic control over American social media content. That is why I think this is a stupid idea and should be opposed, but also, I agree that people who are using this as their Excuse of the Week to not vote were deeply, deeply unlikely to vote in the first place.

This is also a perfect example of why "well now I won't vote >:[!!!!" as a threat/temper tantrum backfires every single time. If there are young people who are concerned about TikTok possibly being banned, and their response is to immediately throw temper tantrums about not voting, all that does is reinforce to elected officials that young people never vote, there is no need to make legislation that champions their interests, and they don't need to fear any electoral backlash because these people have already spent years announcing their intention to Not Vote at every opportunity and clearly aren't about to start now. They remove themselves further from the civic process at every turn, and they reinforce the narrative that young people as a group are not worth having their concerns or ideas prioritized, because even when politicians do other things that young people like and/or support, young people are poised to turn against them and urge No Vote!!! :( at the drop of a fucking hat. So, yeah. "Don't vote!" is always a stupid and self-defeating message, but I can't see how it's possibly supposed to convince politicians that a group of people already predisposed not to vote is going to make any difference from what they already do. So yeah. Like. Not that this surprises me, but it's literally the same threat they've echoed at every single turn, doesn't represent anything new, and will probably be changed 10 times before the election anyway.

#short-wooloo #ask #politics for ts #vote and get off my lawn

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tpquill · 1 month

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What would another 4 years under Trump be like?

Imagine if you will, someone who has zero empathic qualities. A person vibrating with revenge. Someone who has spent their entire life self indulging on a brand, a purpose that is all they ever care about. A narcissistic sociopath; deeply entrenched in outbursts of anger, hatred and lustful ignorance. Living life on “my brand is higher turnover than any loan a bank can give you.” A gentleman’s agreement, but they are no gentleman. This person has spent their entire life; 70+ years on this planet, growing up in a standard of living he has only ever known. A man, whose father was a businessman and through his businesses, met a lot of wealth, a lot of influence and a lot of questionable behaviour. This person was surrounded by people he was introduced to in a world of social ignorance and old money wealth, because he had become his narcissistic father’s business protégé.

Throughout his entire academic and business career he has bought, bullied or faked his way out of everything, resplendent in the firm belief “dearest daddy” bred into him “everyone can be bought for a price”

Banks, businesses, criminals, judges…the list is endless in their world, because money speaks many languages, including Russian. His deep needed greed to be famous, to be talked about, to be adulated and praised - strokes his fragile ego. He demands attention like a toddler in the throes of a temper tantrum, because he’s always got what he wanted. Not an only child, but definitely a high maintenance one. Reminding me of a character from a well known book series, whose ridiculous parents spoilt their child endlessly while ignoring the child in their foster care. A child who demanded everything and got it no matter the cost - this is how this person has lived their entire life, bully into submission, threaten legal action if they never got it.

I watched in 2015 this person proclaim they were setting their sights on the presidency and I laughed with concerned hysteria. This idiot, who had spent his entire business career in and out of court due to bankruptcies. Casinos and hotels foreclose due to overdue loans, employees not being paid. Employees who had invested most if not all of their pension money in “shares” that would make them a sizeable profit to pay off their mortgages - to later find out it was just another scheme to help pay off or pay into his businesses, while they lost everything. His desire to hire undocumented migrants is old news he’s always done it. That’s why he holds favour with the old dusty republican men and women in congress, because they come from a long line of plantation owners and as you would know through American history, plantation owners had…you guessed it, slaves who they bought at auction to do the menial tasks for next to nothing. He is a man of very little talent but one who has bought and sold everyone and anything for his brand. He wants the celebrity status, he wants the adulation and ceremony of a King, he wants the authoritarian rule and suppression of a dictator, he wants the immunity of god but does not live with a Christian heart (not evangelical brainwashing)

Yes, this very same person wanted to be crowned a King, because he coveted that rule, but settled for Commander in chief instead. And, just like everything else in his life, he took measured steps to secure it through nefarious ways. His questionable admiration for authoritarian leaders puts his loyalty in the right paths of those who see America as their bankable gain. Years of political and foreign resentment balances out evenly when you meet with a weak minded, fragile ego who has always wanted to be praised. The art of the deal was never about the savvy businessman lie he always told but about the “fake it to you make it” mantra and he always excelled at that.

But here’s what lies ahead. He spent four years destroying America the last time. You can listen to the mentally concerned drum on about how he made their lives better, or how he made America great. Or how he made America the best it has ever been and think to yourself - do they actually go outside?

There was only one thing on Donald Trump’s mind from 2016 to 2020, how can I benefit from all of this? He used the office and seal of the president of the United States to enrich both himself and his blood sucking family of hangers on. He made his children (all adults) head of administration in the White House with no formal training in anything, including business (fake it to you make it) the nepotism he used in his questionable business practices, he simply transferred to the “People’s House” he installed a cabinet of lawmakers who lusted for fame, but felt left out. Grievance and vengeance because a black man had held that coveted office for 8 years and they needed (dusty and white privileged republicans) to drive that stench out. His plan was to stay there to show the world he wasn’t just Trump the businessman (6 bankruptcies, several business failures, university & charity disasters) but also the greatest world leader ever.

* stock market tanked

* economic downturn

* unemployment at an all time high

* infrastructure never fixed

* Medicare never looked at

* tax breaks for the filthy rich, tax increases for the working class

* migrants put into cages and separated from their children (white privileged free world)

* racism raised its ugly head and laughed, fascism, xenophobia, homophobia soon followed.

* gun related deaths increased, because why not? he abolished or allowed laws to lapse that had been put in place.

* scraped bills that he deemed unnecessary, pulled out of the Paris agreement, called America veterans suckers & losers, disgraced the military, threw paper towels at hurricane ravaged states claiming they weren’t part of America anyway.

Went on the world’s stage and mocked NATO demanding the countries pay more (America had only started paying more) or he was pulling out of NATO and Russia could occupy them all. Completely made himself an absolute laughing stock in front of other well respected leaders by throwing temper tantrums if he didn’t get his way.

Kissed the ass of Putin on more than one occasion. Ignored daily briefings, hired horrible actors to be his press secretary on multiple occasions. Went through more “chief of staff” positions than any former president.

And then came Covid and his botched handling of that. Nearly 5 thousand deaths, the worst of any country’s handling of the pandemic due to the size of the population of the United States. Mocked the scientists and doctors, refused states (who did not support him) of vital PPE instead, used another nepotistic family member to sell it off to states that didn’t use it because they questioned the vaccine and any easier way to keep their people alive.

His disastrous handling of the very serious pandemic led to so many unnecessary loss of life, ignorance into vital medicine that could help, instead advertising the use of injecting bleach into your veins. Once again Trump’s ignorance of not listening to sound advice, instead using his own because, he knows everything.

I won’t beat on about what happened during the previous election (we all witnessed it) the insurrection, the riots, the deaths and the damage when he very legally as witnessed by over 60 court cases all saying the same thing - lost the 2020 election, it was not stolen. Since then, he has done daily if not weekly rallies (he needs that hit of serotonin that can only be found through crowd adulation) he seeks to be re elected back into the White House. Not because he did such a fantastic job the last time, but because he could very well go to prison. 91 felonies, he’s already lost one tax fraud case and one sexual assault and rape case. He still has the hush money case, the RICO and espionage case to go through all while pleading he needs immunity, because without it, a president can be subjected to influence from foreign countries or leaders. Donald J. Trump already is, he just wants the freedom to do it all over again only this time, not get caught and answer for it, because immunity means he will be like Vladimir Putin and the leaders he greatly admires from Saudi Arabia - Turkey - Israel - China - North Korea - Russia -self appointed leaders with a regime that cripples the people of their country.

The point to this journalistic account on my tumblr is simply this;

After everything I have documented (not all in order) after all I have written, after everything that has been witnessed and grieved for. Even in the face of terrorism in your own country. The birth of a very dangerous ideology of Making America Great Again, christofacists plotting revenge on the country built on freedom and democracy, where in its constitutional legislations simply put the rule that divides church and state and successfully removed its colonial predecessors - the stripping of women’s rights and freedom of anatomy, the destruction of legal abortion (Roe vs Wade) and the push to go back in time to the 1800’s - will people still firmly believe this hate filled, vengeful, egotistical, delusional narcissistic sociopath is still worth electing him as the next president, knowing full well that once he gets in again he will do everything in his power to stay there. To then elect his predecessor (another Trump) to take over from him? He successfully taught his children well - grift, lie, squander, tax evade, hide business assets - they won’t let him down.

Or do you look at all that you went through, all that has taken 4 years to recover. To put right the horrors of the predecessor. To make the economy grow, to improve the medical system. To fix and improve the infrastructure, to raise employment and lower the cost of living. To help with student debt and get more money back in your pockets. To make America respected on the world’s stage and warn authoritarian leaders that this is not the way a countries people should be ruled. To stand up to murderous dictators and help a country fighting for its freedom from tyranny. To try and unify their country, not divide it. To have empathy and compassion, respect and loyalty to their people, not to themselves. To lift all voices including women’s to fight for what is most important up.

I hope this time you don’t send yourselves backwards, but move forwards to a better place. There is only one place Donald J Trump needs to go, one time he will ever be held accountable for his poor behaviour. One place he needs to be shown and to answer for all he has done for far too long…

Prison.

TPQ

#president of the united states #crooked donald #donald j trump #j6 insurrection

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izooks · 19 days

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ES Family Trust which opened an account with Paxum Bank, a small bank registered on the Caribbean island of Dominica operated like a shell company for a Russian-American businessman named Anton Postolnikov, who co-owns Paxum Bank and has been a subject of a years-long joint federal criminal investigation by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) into the Trump Media merger.

Postolnikov, the nephew of *Aleksander Smirnov, an ally of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.

Postolnikov appears to have used the trust to loan money to help save Trump Media – and the Truth Social platform – because his bank (Paxum) itself could not furnish the loan.

🤔 What a coincidence that Trump’s funding source is also the nephew of the GOP led impeachment hearings key witness Alexander Smirnoff. 🤨

#truth social #gop #democrats #vote blue #republicans #vote biden #democracy #fuck trump #maga 🧠 = 🐶 💩#traitor trump #russia #DJT #RUSSIA MONEY

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cock-holliday · 4 months

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Really fucking loathe that any piece of news about something good Biden does has to be full of commentary about how this item should erase criticism of him and that ‘now in light of ___, anyone with a bone to pick is just smearing him.’

Like y’all can’t just say “hey phew here is something he did that’s good!” It always must be “—but you won’t hear about it because everyone will only discuss the bad he’s done, and obviously all the people who hate Biden are Trump supporters or russian agents so share this news, not because it’s good news, but because it’ll help me repair his image.”

Like damn, you can do that for any president.

Oh you hate Trump? Well sweaty he gave cash relief to struggling Americans and instituted lockdowns and covid safety measures as well as student loan and eviction pauses Biden later removed. Trump also poured a lot of resources and money into infrastructure projects.

Oh you hate Reagan? Well then you must also hate women because he appointed the first female supreme court justice, Sandra Day O’Connor and pushed the 50 States Project For Women, fighting for an end to sex discrimination. He also fought to protect Social Security and expand Medicare.

Even the most vile and disgusting and reprehensible politicians will occasionally or even frequently have good policy, it neither wholly repairs a reputation nor cancels out foul deeds.

If I round up 100 babies and fire them out of a canon, then purchase a house for someone about to be evicted, you can (especially if you’re the person about to be evicted) feel good about that house and want more actions like that without making a whole speech about how the haters are just mad and refuse to move on about the canon babies

#biden #joe biden #dnc #us politics #2024 presidential election

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tomorrowusa · 7 months

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What Putin is doing in Ukraine is not just reckless, not just a war of choice, not just an invasion in a class of its own for overreach, mendacity, immorality and incompetence, all wrapped in a farrago of lies. What he is doing is evil. He has trumped up any number of shifting justifications — one day it was removing a Nazi regime in power in Kyiv, the next it was preventing NATO expansion, the next it was fending off a Western cultural invasion of Russia — for what ultimately was a personal flight of fancy that now requires his superpower army turning to North Korea for help. It’s like the biggest bank in town having to ask the local pawnshop for a loan. So much for Putin’s bare-chested virility.

[ ... ]

Putin lately has stopped even bothering to justify the war — maybe because even he is too embarrassed to utter aloud the nihilism that his actions scream: If I can’t have Ukraine, I’ll make sure Ukrainians can’t have it, either.

[ … ]

This is as obvious a case of right versus wrong, good versus evil, as you find in international relations since World War II.

[ … ]

Ukraine needs to inflict as much damage on Putin’s army as fast as possible. That means we need to massively and rapidly deliver the weaponry Ukraine needs to break Putin’s lines in the country’s southeast. I’m talking the kitchen sink: F-16s; mine-clearing equipment; more Patriot antimissile systems; MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems, which could strike deep behind Russian lines — whatever the Ukrainians can use effectively and fast.

— New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman, just back from a visit to Kyiv. (archived)

If you're in the US, contact your representative in the House and urge him/her to support the proposed $24 billion in aid to Ukraine.

Representatives | house.gov

If you have the misfortune to be represented by a dumb-ass MAGA zombie like Matt Gaetz and they say no, write back and ask: "Why do you hate freedom?"

Wars don't end just because people in third countries get bored with them.

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the-daily-tizzy · 1 year

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The wisdom of Ben Stein:

I never dreamed that I would have to face the prospect of not living in the United States of America, at least not the one I have known all my life.

I have never wished to live anywhere else.

This is my home and I was privileged to be born here.

But today I woke up and as I had my morning coffee, I realized that everything is about to change.

No matter how I vote, no matter what I say, something evil has invaded our nation, and our lives are never going to be the same.

I have been confused by the hostility of family and friends.

I look at people I have known all my life--so hate-filled that they agree with opinions they would never express as their own.

I think that I may well have entered the Twilight Zone.

We have become a nation that has lost its collective mind!

You can't justify this insanity:

If a guy pretends to be a woman, you are required to pretend with him.

Somehow it’s un-American for the census to count how many Americans are in America.

Russians influencing our elections are bad, but illegals voting in our elections are good.

It was cool for Joe Biden to "blackmail" the President of Ukraine, but it’s an impeachable offense if Donald Trump inquires about it.

Twenty is too young to drink a beer, but eighteen is old enough to vote.

People who have never owned slaves should pay slavery reparations to people who have never been slaves.

People who have never been to college should pay the debts of college students who took out huge loans for their degrees.

Immigrants with tuberculosis and polio are welcome, but you’d better be able to prove your dog is vaccinated.

Irish doctors and German engineers who want to immigrate to the US must go through a rigorous vetting process, but any illiterate gang-bangers who jump the southern fence are welcome.

$5 billion for border security is too expensive, but $1.5 trillion for “free” health care is not.

If you cheat to get into college you go to prison, but if you cheat to get into the country you go to college for free.

People who say there is no such thing as gender are demanding a female President.

We see other countries going Socialist and collapsing, but it seems like a great plan to us.

Some people are held responsible for things that happened before they were born, and other people are not held responsible for what they are doing right now.

Criminals are caught-and-released to hurt more people, but stopping them is bad because it's a violation of THEIR rights.

And pointing out all this hypocrisy somehow makes us "racists"?!

Nothing makes sense anymore - no values, no morals, and no civility.

People are dying of a Chinese virus, but it's racist to refer to it as Chinese even though it began in China.

We are clearly living in an upside down world where right is wrong and wrong is right, where moral is immoral and immoral is moral, where good is evil and evil is good, where killing murderers is wrong but killing unborn babies is A-OK!

Wake up America, the great unsinkable ship Titanic America has hit an iceberg, is taking on water, and is sinking fast. Speak up!

Even if this isn’t Ben Stein... it still makes sense...

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dreaminginthedeepsouth · 1 month

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Big night for CNN, out with a story about document boxes being loaded onto a Trump plane bound for Bedminster, New Jersey, on the same day the Department of Justice showed up to receive a folder of top secret documents from a Trump lawyer who certified they were the only secret documents she and lawyer Evan Corcoran could find.

According to an interview by CNN with former Trump valet Brian Butler, referred to six times in the classified documents indictment as “Trump Employee #5,” the boxes were loaded onto the Trump plane on June 3, 2022, as Trump’s lawyers, Christina Bobb and Evan Corcoran, were meeting with Jay Bratt, the prosecutor from the Department of Justice in charge of the classified documents case. Christina Bobb famously signed a certification to the DOJ that a “diligent search” had been conducted at Mar a Lago, and that the 31 documents being handed over that day were the sum total of all the classified documents that had been found.

Two months later, in August, FBI agents would execute a search warrant and discover more than 100 additional top secret documents in Trump’s private office, including several marked with the highest classification, “Top Secret/SCI,” or “Top Secret – Secure Compartmented Information.”

Former valet Butler told CNN that he was surprised to get a phone call from Trump’s “body man,” Walt Nauta, on June 3, asking if he could borrow one of Butler’s Cadillac Escalade SUV’s to help carry material to the West Palm Beach airport to be loaded onto a Trump airplane. Butler was told that Trump and his family were flying to Bedminster for the summer that day. Butler told CNN he was not usually called upon to move luggage to the private Trump jet and thought it was also unusual that Nauta asked for the favor “in a guarded way,” CNN reported.

Butler used his own SUV to carry Trump family luggage to the airport, while Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira, both of whom were indicted with Trump, used the Escalade he had loaned to Nauta to move the rest of the material. “They were the boxes that were in the indictment, the white bankers boxes. That’s what I remember loading,” Butler told CNN.

Butler described his relationship with Nauta as “best friends,” at least until questions about the classified documents found by the FBI at Mar a Lago began coming up. Butler told CNN that on one of the frequent “nightly walks” he took with Nauta around their neighborhood in West Palm Beach, Nauta told him that he, Nauta, Butler, and De Oliveira were “all dirty” when it came to the boxes they had moved around inside of Mar a Lago and to the Trump airplane on June 3. De Oliveira repeatedly urged Butler to sign up with the same attorney Trump had provided to himself and Nauta, but Butler demurred, choosing instead to hire a former U.S. Attorney in Florida, Jeffrey Sloman. Butler met “repeatedly” with prosecutors for the office of Special Counsel Jack Smith, according to CNN.

In one interview, Butler told prosecutors about a time he was driving Australian billionaire Anthony Pratt and his chief of staff in the Spring of 2021 when he heard Pratt talking about secrets of U.S. and Russian nuclear submarines he had heard from Trump while he was visiting Mar a Lago. Pratt was a paid member of the Trump club at the time. It was on May 6, 2021, that the National Archives first formally requested that Trump turn over any and all classified and non-classified documents Trump had removed from the White House when he left office. On May 8, the British newspaper, the Daily Mail, had a photographer at the West Palm Beach airport who took photographs of Trump boarding a private jet to fly to his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey. The photographs show several Trump aides loading a half dozen or more bankers boxes of documents into the jet.

On July 21, 2021, just two months later, Trump showed a top secret military “plan of attack” on Iran to an interviewer who was working on a book with Trump’s former chief of staff, Mark Meadows. The interview took place at the Trump golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey.

Before Butler signed with his own private attorney, he was witness to two conversations between Trump and De Oliveira when Trump asked De Oliveira, “Are we good?” After one conversation De Oliveira had with Trump on the phone in the presence of Butler, he said Trump had promised to get him a lawyer. In another conversation Butler told prosecutors about, Nauta asked him “to make sure Carlos (De Oliveira) is good.” Butler told CNN that he twice assured Nauta that De Oliveira was “loyal and wouldn’t do anything to hurt his relationship with Trump.” It was after that conversation that Butler decided to get his own lawyer and broke contact with the two men who ended up being indicted with Trump.

Based on the new CNN report, we now know that boxes of documents were moved from Mar a Lago to Bedminster twice – once in May of 2021 immediately after the National Archives had requested that Trump turn over documents he took from the White House, and again in June of 2022, on the very day the DOJ had shown up at Mar a Lago to take possession of what they were told were all the classified documents being held there.

What happened to the classified documents Trump took with him to Bedminster is not known. It is also unknown why the FBI never searched the Trump New Jersey golf club.

Trump has recently filed motions to dismiss the Mar a Lago indictments based on spurious claims of “absolute immunity” and an entire made-up claim that the Presidential Records Act permitted him to possess classified documents. Special Counsel Smith has opposed both motions. The judge in the case, whose previous decisions in the case have been overturned twice by the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, has yet to rule on the Trump motions to dismiss.

[Lucian Truscott]

#stolen documents #CNN #TFG #Lucian Truscott

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mariacallous · 2 months

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As the Senate considered approving $61 billion to Ukraine this weekend, Donald Trump published an all-caps rant making his opposition clear.

“FROM THIS POINT FORWARD, ARE YOU LISTENING U.S. SENATE(?), NO MONEY IN THE FORM OF FOREIGN AID SHOULD BE GIVEN TO ANY COUNTRY UNLESS IT IS DONE AS A LOAN,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform on Friday.

The Senate rejected Trump’s order, passing the bill Tuesday morning 70-29. But the bill still needs to clear the Republican-controlled House, where the former president’s influence has proven powerful in the past. Indeed, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has already stated opposition to the Senate aid bill.

Which makes now a good time to remind ourselves that the objections to Ukraine aid are absurd.

Supporting Ukraine’s defense is one of the single easiest foreign policy calls of my lifetime, a policy that has both protected Ukrainians from Russian slaughter and advanced America’s geopolitical interests in Europe. It has done so at a relatively low cost in dollars and zero cost in American lives. There is nothing to gain by abandoning it, and everything to lose.

Let’s start with the most basic point: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was an act of evil. Since the war’s beginning, the Russian government and its propaganda outlets have openly announced that their war aim is to seize Ukrainian territory and subjugate its government to the Kremlin.

This was evident not just in words, like President Vladimir Putin’s recent interview with Tucker Carlson, but also in deeds. The war began with a failed lightning thrust targeting the Ukrainian capital in Kyiv, during which Russian forces engaged in horrific atrocities: executing entire families and indiscriminately bombing populated areas.

There are many problems with the Ukrainian government it is an imperfect democracy whose battlefield performance has worsened as the war degenerated into a kind of stalemate. Its maximalist stated objective of winning all its territory back through force may very well be impossible.

But the justice of its basic cause is unimpeachable. Ukraine is fighting a classic war of self-defense, a country protecting its people and its sovereignty from a large neighboring dictatorship that wishes to crush it.

And the success of Ukraine’s war hinges crucially on American support.

Why American aid is so important

The United States, labeled “the arsenal of democracy” during World War II, is playing that role again today. America is providing Ukraine with advanced weapons systems, like HIMARS mobile artillery, and ammunition that neither the Ukrainians nor European allies can get to the field on their own in sufficient numbers.

Currently, American funding has been effectively suspended due to the holdup in Congress. We can already see the consequences: Ukrainian fighters, working with a third of the ammunition they need to fight, being forced to retreat.

What happens if the aid dries up indefinitely? Vox’s Josh Keating reported on this extensively, and his sources painted a grim picture:

“A failure to supply military aid to Ukraine isn’t going to cause an immediate Russian victory, but it is going to change the character of the war,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a defense analyst with the Center for a New American Security who has made multiple research trips to the front lines in Ukraine. Gady said that while Ukraine’s military has traditionally been an “artillery dominant military force,” without shells for those guns, “they would likely start pursuing more asymmetric strategies. That is, withdrawing from certain sectors of the front lines into urban settlements, trying to draw Russian forces into urban combat.” This scenario is … a grim prospect for Ukraine’s civilians. Urban combat always has an extremely high civilian death toll and given the heavy-handed tactics employed by the Russian military, the list of Ukrainian cities and towns entirely decimated by war — Mariupol, Bakhmut — would likely grow.

Even if you see the US government as human rights hypocrites or don’t believe protecting Ukrainian lives is America’s concern, the outcome of this war directly affects US interests.

Currently, the fighting is mostly in Ukraine’s more rural eastern half. If it moves west, into the heart of Ukraine’s largest cities, it moves closer to nearby NATO treaty allies. The odds of a scary spillover incident — of a miscalculation that could trigger a wider war between Russia and the American-led alliance — would rise accordingly.

At present, the best way to limit the risk of war between nuclear-armed powers is to help Ukraine keep Russia physically further away from NATO borders. Continuing aid, by contrast, is unlikely to trigger a direct escalation between Russia and the United States — as the past two years of fighting have shown.

Global security is worth a lot more than $61 billion

Again, it is unlikely that Ukraine will simply defeat Russia and win back all of its territories. The most likely scenario for the war’s end is — like most wars — negotiation.

But as in any negotiation, leverage matters. Political scientists often describe war as itself a process of bargaining, one in which it’s rational for states to continue fighting until the balance of power between the two sides is clear. To bring about a settlement in which Russia’s aggression is punished rather than rewarded, Ukraine needs to be strong on the battlefield.

And if Russia is rewarded, it has an incentive to engage in more provocations on NATO’s frontier. A world where Ukraine is forced to the table by American abandonment is a vastly more dangerous one.

Sixty-one billion dollars sure sounds like a lot of money. But the amount it purchases — sovereignty for an embattled democracy, civilian safety from Russian massacres, and decreasing the odds of a terrifying wider war — is easily worth the price. For Congress to do anything but rush it through would be an appalling betrayal not just of Ukraine, but of America.

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justinspoliticalcorner · 7 days

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Joan McCarter at Daily Kos:

House Speaker Mike Johnson is having another bad week, and it’s only Tuesday. He got the Republican conference together Tuesday morning to present his complicated plan for the House to vote on aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The business of the day was derailed by Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who told Johnson he’s on thin ice.

When it was just Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene making the threat to oust Johnson—and being ridiculed for it by colleagues—it was easy to ignore. Massie’s joining in changes things. As of this Friday, when Rep. Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin resigns, Johnson will have just one vote to spare—either to pass legislation with a Republican majority or to keep him in his job. He needs Democrats more than ever. Now that he’s committed to pushing through the aid package, he has a political and personal stake in getting it approved. The House Freedom Caucus is already opposed to it, and powerful Rep. Jim Jordan told Johnson he can’t count on his vote even to move the package to the floor, much less vote for it.

Johnson’s plan is to pass each package separately along with a fourth bill that’s larded up with policy priorities for the GOP to try to get them on board—the REPO Act which would direct the sale of seized Russian assets, a TikTok ban, and economic and humanitarian loans to Ukraine. Donald Trump has been pushing for loans to Ukraine instead of direct aid, so this proposal from Johnson would give a nod to that, and focus direct aid on military defense. At this point, Johnson likely can’t even get the aid bills to the floor without help from Democrats, and he sure can’t count on keeping his job without at least a few of them helping him out. But he’s already created problems for himself with the Democrats by telling Republicans they could have amendments to the aid bills—something that “wasn’t part of the conversation that Johnson had with President Joe Biden on Monday,” according to Punchbowl News’ sources.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA)'s tenure in that job may not be for long.

#Mike Johnson #118th Congress #Speaker Of The House #Motion To Vacate

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odinsblog · 11 months

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I swear to God, from mass incarceration crime bills, to undermining abortion rights, to healthcare, to Clarence Thomas, to student loan forgiveness, it feels like Joe Biden’s entire presidency has been him tepidly and ineffectually “fighting” against every bad thing that he was instrumental in creating when he was a Senator, but reliably failing to completely repeal or correct as POTUS.

Sorry if this truth upsets some 🙈🙉🙊 neoliberal diehards, but it’s infuriating to see how student loan forgiveness was thrown under the bus in the name of “bipartisan compromise” that Biden values so fucking much. Acquiescing to the GOP’s manufactured “debt default crisis,” no matter how marginally, only guarantees that they will continue using these hostage taking tactics in the future.

And before any braindead Blue MAGA sycophants regurgitate their tired lines about how the act of even remembering these facts is somehow “helping Trump,” or “oh you must be a Russian bot,” I fucking dare you to 1) refute anything in this post as misleading, patently untrue, or false, Or 2) search through my blog and see what I’ve posted regarding Republicans, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Russia. NONE of that changes the fact that Biden, bipartisanly partnering up with Republicans, helped plant the seeds of many of the problems that we face today. The bad guys being bad guys does not magically absolve Biden for helping them achieve so many of their goals in his “younger” days.

#politics #joe biden #student loan forgiveness #student debt #student loans #education

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ralfmaximus · 20 days

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The Guardian just published proof that Trump's Truth Social project was kept afloat only because of loans from Russian money launderers. Loans that were later "forgiven".

It would've crashed and burned in 2022 otherwise.

#trump #maga #us politics

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nostalgicamerica · 1 year

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I would be the first to admit seems somewhat scatterbrained at times. Lately, he seems more in a fog. I attribute that to age and having a lot on his plate. His taking oil out of the strategic supply is not something we should be doing at this time. Especially if it's not put back at the same rate. Trump as you know railed at Biden for doing this. If you look up what Trump did while in office, he took from the strategic oil reserves on many occasions. As to Trump hitting back. Yes, he does that. He likes to take the low road. He puts people down to make himself look good. Not a trait in a good statesman. Now let's get to the border crisis. He took money from the Military Budget to build part of the wall. That money was to go to military bases to upgrade the poor living conditions for military families. He did that because congress wouldn't give him what he wanted. That money for military bases was already approved by congress. Trump is like a bull in a china shop when it comes to world politics. He's pissed off more than one leader in a country and if you don't realize it. He is in Putin's pocket. More of that will come out and I hope that if Biden is in China's pocket or Ukraine's pocket, that news will come out. Remember when Trump said he didn't have money in China. Turns out he's had a bank account in China and other Countries. Russia backed up a loan when Trump went to Deutsche Bank. Back in the eighties he wanted build a Trump Tower in Russia. That hasn't happened. Why? Because the Russians know that he can be manipulated.

Do you really believe that if there was anything to all the allegations against Trump it wouldn't be trumpeted from the rooftops and plastered in all the newspapers in 108 point font headlines? The swamp's goal from day one was 'Get Trump!' everything thus far has been yawn-inducing nothingburgers.

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qqueenofhades · 1 year

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I've seen a couple people suggest that Trump's idiot cards are functioning at least in part as a desperate money laundering scheme, and I don't even know how to start assessing the nonsense to likelihood ratio on that one. Do you have any thoughts? If not, do you know anyone around here who does for economics what you do for history and politics?

I always enjoy your takes, you're so good at giving nuanced perspective, a bit of education, and some good laughs all wrapped up together, thanks for all the time and care you put in to your posts! 💜

Let's be real, it doesn't really take an expert in economics to figure this out. Trump has a demonstrable and extensive record of financial malpractice stretching back for his entire career -- bankruptcies, tax fraud, accepting shady money from God knows where, taking loans from the Bank of Evil, in debt to the Russians and Saudis, fiddling property valuations like the Trump org just got busted for, etc etc etc. At this point, it's easier and more likely to assume that he is committing another financial crime rather than that he's not, especially since NFTs and crypto more generally are extra-ripe for exploitation and/or outside the current mainstream American financial system that is giving him such a hard time right now. Why don't they understand that everything just belongs to him already? Harsh, man.

So, like... it could simultaneously be an attempt to change the subject from having dinner with Nazis, a money laundering scheme, a desperate attempt to Look Cool To The Cryptobro Youth, and Christ knows how many other things too, all at once. With Trump, these things are not mutually exclusive and in fact often build on each other, because I repeat, we live in hell.

#anonymous #ask #politics for ts #the giant orange monster #and thanks! glad you appreciate ❤️

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reddancer1 · 16 days

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An out of-the-blue email reveals a secret behind Trump's finances

Hi everyone,

Very rarely, reporting happens like it does in the movies – with an out-of-the-blue email offering important, secret information.

That is how Guardian reporter Hugo Lowell was able to reveal on Wednesday that Donald Trump’s social media company was kept afloat by $8m in loans from a trust managed by a Russian-American businessman under criminal investigation.

Trump Media, which includes the Truth Social platform, went public last week, with the former president’s stake boosting his net worth by approximately $3.7bn.

Hugo began chasing this story last year, revealing the existence of the emergency $8m loans that helped Trump Media stave off insolvency in 2022. And while Hugo was able to establish the source of the loans as an entity called ES Family Trust, the identity of those behind the trust was a mystery – until now.

Hugo tells me: “Fast forward almost a year from my initial reporting, and one evening I get an email with documents connected to a small Caribbean-registered bank called Paxum, best-known for financing the porn industry. The documents cast a light on how ES Family Trust operated.”

Those documents turned out to be a huge cache of files revealing a man behind the trust to be Anton Postolnikov, a co-owner of Paxum bank and nephew of Aleksandr Smirnov, a Putin ally and former first deputy justice minister of Russia.

“For the longest time, we had no idea about the origin of this money and how it was all connected,” says Hugo. “And suddenly we had the trust’s creation papers. It was an aha moment for us.”

Postolnikov appears to have used the trust to loan money to Trump Media because Paxum lacks a US banking license, barring it from furnishing the loan directly. At the time, in late 2021, the former president’s media company was desperate for cash while it waited for US regulators to approve the merger that would facilitate its stock market debut.

Trump Media finally went public last week – but though it received regulatory clearance, the deal has been mired in a criminal investigation for allegations of insider trading and money laundering. “This is now a joint FBI-Department of Homeland Security investigation that encompasses multiple FBI field officers, the El Dorado task force that looks at money laundering in Miami, and multiple US attorneys’ offices,” says Hugo. “It's just turned into this colossal behemoth of an investigation.”

There is also no indication that Trump or Trump Media had any idea about the nature of the loans beyond that they were opaque, nor has the company or its executives been accused of wrongdoing. A spokesperson for Trump Media did not respond to a request for comment.

One person of interest in the investigation? Postolnikov. He has been listed on search warrant affidavits, but has not been charged with a crime.

“What happens next to Postolnikov is always going to be of interest to us,” says Hugo, “but it's very difficult to predict. I think what is eye-opening to us is just how large the investigation has become. And the money that Donald Trump stands to gain from this is just so significant.”

You can read Hugo Lowell’s full, fascinating report here: Exclusive: Trump Media saved in 2022 by Russian-American under criminal investigation.

Thanks for supporting us and helping fund vital public-interest investigations like this.

Best, Georgia

Georgia Warren Interim membership editor Guardian USThe Guardian’s investigative journalism is made possible thanks to the collective small-dollar contributions of readers like you.

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