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mariacallous · 2 years

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In his speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 21, Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh devoted much of the first half of his remarks to Mongolia’s dedication to internationalism and efforts to avoid war and conflict. Khurelsukh was laying out an independent Mongolian foreign policy that criticized Russian aggression against Ukraine—without directly mentioning the invasion. Since Mongolia’s democratic revolution and withdrawal of Soviet support, Mongolia has looked to the international community in its attempt to chart a foreign policy that maintains its independence from overbearing neighbors China and Russia. Ulaanbaatar’s approach may be a model for others in a new world of rival blocs.

The unprovoked and faltering Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised many questions about the direction of international relations. One of these questions centers on what kind of bloc may form around China and now-subservient partner Russia, especially in Asia. A realist perspective has led to expectations that few independent continental Asian countries will be able to resist Chinese pressure to fall in line with its leadership. To many experts, the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit was a confirmation of this Chinese leadership being projected into Central Asia as one battleground for bloc formation. But Central Asian nations are pushing back against the idea of inevitably being drawn into Beijing’s orbit. Another possibility is so-called active nonalignment being discussed in some South American and—in other versions—Southeast Asian circles.

Mongolia sits in a particularly precarious situation with China and Russia as its only neighbors, one that is sometimes described as sharing a bed with a bear and a dragon. The country is dependent on Russian energy as the sole supplier of fuel to Mongolia and the sole supplier of electricity to western Mongolia. China, meanwhile, absolutely dominates Mongolian trade by importing consumer goods and exporting Mongolian resources—primarily copper but also gold, coal, and other minerals.

As much as Mongolia has sought to chart its own course for the last three decades, the walls have been closing in as China and Russia’s partnership deepens. Since the mid-1990s, Mongolia has pursued a course that seeks to balance constructive relations with its two neighbors by intensifying relations with “third neighbors”—i.e., friends that share democratic commitments but also a market economy. These third neighbors include the United States, of course, a relationship that was formalized in a strategic partnership in 2019 and became a partner in the annual Khaan Quest military exercises that have been held in Mongolia since 2003. Will Mongolia continue to be able to pursue this independent foreign policy despite geopolitical shifts brought about by China’s ascendence and Russia’s aggression?

Initial signs this spring seemed to suggest that the days of Mongolian relations with its third neighbors were numbered. The government has yet to issue any kind of direct criticism of Russian aggression and abstained from various U.N. resolutions giving voice to such criticism. There are many prominent critics of Russian aggression, such as former Mongolian President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj or former Prime Minister Mendsaikhany Enkhsaikhan, who often refer to the preponderance of minorities, such as Buryats, in Russia’s military. But a large portion of Mongolian elites not only speak Russian but are distinctly Russophile. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, not only was Russian the main second language in Mongolia but elites often studied there. Today, many Mongolians are much more likely to seek higher education in third-neighbor countries. Interestingly, somewhat older pro-Russian voices have largely gathered on Facebook while vociferous critics have been more active on Twitter. But although the government has not embraced a position that is critical of Russian aggression, many conversations I had in Ulaanbaatar this summer suggested that abstaining on U.N. resolutions was actually a daring move as it indicated precisely that Mongolia was not easily falling into line with China and Russia.

Enter internationalism as Mongolia’s opportunity to maintain its independence and independent outlook. As emphasized by Khurelsukh in his speech, Mongolia has a long-standing history of internationalist commitments since its democratic revolution in 1990. “Mongolia has consistently pursued a peace-loving, open, multi-pillar, and independent foreign policy,” Khurelsukh asserted. The early highlight of these commitments was the declaration of a nuclear weapons-free status at the U.N. General Assembly in 1992, only one year after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact.

In the past two decades, this commitment has expanded to active participation in peacekeeping operations. Specific initiatives, such as support to women peacekeepers, have further bolstered these commitments. In August, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres visited Mongolia and made many references to Mongolia’s contributions, including Khurelsukh’s campaign to plant 1 billion trees as a contribution to the fight against climate change.

Khurelsukh’s extended plea for dialogue as a resolution to conflict—a veiled reference to Russian aggression and Central Asian turmoil in the past month—reaffirms Mongolia’s desire to maintain an independent foreign policy in the face of pressure from its overbearing neighbors, a desire that deserves international and specifically U.S. support. As Khurelsukh said at the U.N. General Assembly, “In today’s complex reality, we should always strive to learn from the mistakes of the past, uphold mutual trust, understanding, and respect, and make every effort to resolve any misunderstanding, conflict or war by peaceful means and dialogue.”

Some third neighbors have already taken steps that suggest a new values-driven engagement of Asian neighbors to China and Russia. This year, Germany announced that it would restart foreign aid to Mongolia. Australia opened itself to Mongolians via working holiday visas.

One area for increased engagement by third neighbors and the United States would be energy security. As Europe struggles to free itself from energy dependence on Russia, the United States sits in a relatively comfortable position, having a secure domestic supply of hydrocarbons. Setting aside the enormous risks this supply poses to the world facing a climate emergency, Mongolia is reliant on Russian energy and its own coal supply. Yet, it has abundant potential for the development of alternative energies. Most obvious in this context is the 300 days of annual sunshine that most of the country enjoys and the low population density that would make industrial-scale deployment of solar power generation possible.

Yet, unlocking this potential and the additional possibility of becoming a significant exporter of energy to China and thus creating some leverage in economic relations requires enormous capital investments initially to build a smart power grid. The other possibility that has been highlighted by the Mongolian government is the development of hydropower. Notwithstanding the challenges that come with such megaprojects around consultations with local communities, the loss of rangelands, and the financing and logistics of construction itself, hydropower offers perhaps the most direct counter to Mongolian dependence on Russian power supplies.

Although not mentioned directly in Khurelsukh’s speech, U.S. and international support for alternative energy projects in Mongolia would provide an avenue to renew third-neighbor relations. After all, the potential of a growing confrontation with a China-Russia alliance calls for efforts to realize this partnership and further bolster Mongolia’s commitment to democracy and human rights as well as its independence.

The United States is currently strongly engaged with the Mongolia Water Compact that is focused on drinking water for Ulaanbaatar, the capital. A focus on enabling the development of an alternative energy sector could focus on drawing lessons from large-scale mining projects to address challenges around community responses to shrinking pasturelands. Although solar projects do not lead to big holes in the ground, they might demand extensive fencing, not least to keep livestock—still the backbone of Mongolian life for many families—out.

All this needs financing. The risk here is that China has the vehicles and market motivation to step in easily, so any other sources of international financing will in and of itself provide some balance.

When it comes to security considerations, it is important to give the Mongolian government some leeway for its decision-making. What may have looked like a lack of opposition to Russian foreign policy for the past six months from afar may actually have been as far as the government has been able to go in staking out a position critical of Russia. The next flash point may already be looming in the thousands of Russian men who have migrated to Mongolia to avoid conscription in the past weeks. Although the Mongolian government is already issuing them resident permits, what if Moscow demands their return? After all, ethnic Mongolians fleeing China have been returned, as have North Koreans who have made their way to Mongolia.

Mongolia can provide a model for how to engage the many countries that ring China and Russia in a time when they struggle to resist pressure from Beijing and Moscow. Mongolia may not be able to openly condemn its domineering neighbors—but that doesn’t mean it’s happy about them.

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itsnelkabelka · 6 years

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Speech: Speech by Ambassador to Mongolia at the Queen's Birthday Party 2018

Your excellency, Minister Tsogtbaatar, Honourable Ministers and MPs, my ambassadorial colleagues and members of the Diplomatic Corps, ladies and gentlemen. A very warm welcome to you all to the British Residence to join us in celebrating Her Majesty The Queen’s Birthday in Ulaanbaatar. I and the whole team at the British Embassy are immensely grateful to you all for coming this evening.

It has been another memorable year for Her Majesty The Queen who celebrated her 92nd birthday this year. As well as hosting the Commonwealth Heads of Government Summit in April when we welcomed to London over 50 Heads of State and Government from around the Commonwealth of Nations, Her Majesty also became a great-grandmother for the sixth time with the birth of HRH Prince Louis to TRH The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and of course Her Majesty attended the beautiful wedding just three weeks ago of TRH The Duke and Duchess of Sussex.

I am sure you would all agree these major milestones are a further reminder, if one were ever needed, of the remarkable nature of Her Majesty’s long reign and the immeasurable contribution Her Majesty has made to the UK for so many years. And, lifting the words from our National Anthem you have just heard sung so beautifully by Zoloo, “Long may she rule over us”!

Here in Mongolia too, we are enjoying a milestone year with the 55th anniversary of diplomatic relations between our two nations. It is a well-known and often-repeated fact the UK was the first western country to establish relations with Mongolia. But I genuinely believe it is worth repeating as it was a bold step at the time. The world was of course rather different then and was experiencing the depths of the Cold War. The UK was clear that, as a new member of the United Nations, Mongolia was a country the UK wanted to get to know better and with whom to develop areas of mutual co-operation. Since then, our relationship has strengthened and particularly so since the peaceful democratic revolution of the early 1990s.

Today, our relationship is multi-faceted. And rather like the Commonwealth Summit I mentioned earlier, the themes of our relationship revolve around prosperity, environment and security. Let me start with prosperity and a few facts and figures. The UK (jointly with Australia) is the largest foreign investor in Mongolia through the Rio Tinto development at Oyu Tolgoi (as well as being its second largest export market). That investment totals $12bn over the two phases of the Oyu Tolgoi project – equivalent to 100% of Mongolia’s GDP. Oyu Tolgoi is already delivering and will continue to deliver clear benefits to the Mongolian economy through taxes and royalties paid to the government ($1.5 bn since 2010), employment of Mongolian workers, procurement from Mongolian suppliers and, in future, dividends. But, Oyu Tolgoi represents more than that. As well as the potential for expansion and growth at Oyu Tolgoi itself, the project will enable development of a successful mining sector in Mongolia, attracting further investment. If Mongolia makes the right strategic policy choices, then the economic future will be very bright indeed. If not, it would be a major opportunity missed.

Another area where we have been making very significant investment is in helping the Government of Mongolia on environmental issues. This has become a top priority for the UK’s work in Mongolia in recent years. With the UK hosting a major summit on the Illegal Wildlife Trade in October (which I hope His Excellency our Guest of Honour will be able to attend) we have run a number of successful projects to help Mongolia combat smuggling and the illicit trade of some of its many iconic species. This year we also secured funding for the first time from the UK Space Agency for a major project with a British company and the National Agency for Meteorology to improve satellite data available to Mongolia to better tackle the effects of dzud on herders.

Furthermore, the UK has been a strong advocate on the Green Climate Fund Board for Mongolia-focused initiatives, and I’m delighted to see that many of these have come to fruition. We contribute 12% of this fund, which is supporting important solar power plant, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Ger Redevelopment projects here. Together, this means the UK has committed around $25m to supporting the environment in Mongolia during this and the next couple of years.

Our defence and security relationship is also thriving. This morning I attended the flagship UB Strategic Dialogue at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the UK is strongly invested in peace and security in the Asia Pacific. We share similar goals to Mongolia and, like Mongolia, we welcomed the constructive talks between President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un which took place in Singapore on Tuesday.

As a further sign of UK commitment, I also attended this morning the opening of the Khaan Quest defence exercise which includes also a British contingent. We hold the Mongolian defence forces in high regard especially their contribution to peacekeeping operations and wish to continue to strengthen our defence relationship.

Looking ahead to the future, the UK will remain committed and, while some may say the UK’s global role might diminish after we leave the EU next year, the opposite will be the reality as we forge a new relationship with our EU partners and strengthen the UK’s presence around the world especially in the Asia Pacific, including here in Mongolia.

The UK also has a huge amount to offer in terms of our soft power which is becoming even more important in the digital age. I am always struck as I travel in this region the popularity of the Premier League and other sports (cricket is taking off here too!), British music, fashion and film and, perhaps most importantly, our educational institutions. It is heartening for me, as a parent, to see the dedication of young Mongolians to purse their studies either following the UK curriculum in schools in Mongolia such as the British School or at university in the UK. The number of British alumni is growing including through the British Government’s Chevening scholarship scheme. We are also keen to help with wider reform in the Mongolian educational system through collaboration with the world-renowned Cambridge Assessment International Education. As you all know, if a society gets education right, everything else falls into place.

Of course, there are many other things which make up the UK/Mongolia relationship and all of you here this evening play your own particular role and I am grateful to you all for that. Before I finish, I wanted to say a big thank you to our sponsors this evening: Uran Tusul, Jaguar Land Rover, Aggreko, Diageo, Chinggis Beer and Ahmad Tea and to our caterers, the Kempinski Hotel and Cozy Corner. And of course to the excellent Embassy team who have worked tirelessly for several weeks to bring this event to fruition. So please enjoy the food, drink, music and company and thank you again for coming.

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