#because I bet my bottom dollar not a single person there taught them about periods

[plms-hockey]

PLMS Scratchpad: Draft & Free Agency

The 2018 NHL Draft

From an excited Leafs fan’s perspective, it would have been nearly impossible for Kyle Dubas to live up to everyone’s individual hype trains. A modest but solid draft is probably a good dose of reality for everyone, as the new Maple Leafs GM didn’t make any massive waves in Dallas.

That’s not to say it was a bad draft. Even though the Leafs have made some playoff acquisition trades at the deadline in the past two years to shore themselves up for the playoffs, they still managed to inject nine new prospects into the system. More importantly, not a single one of them are bearing any wild red flags. In fact, we did see flairs and hints of the shift in philosophy that we expected from Dubas.

After claiming he didn’t know where his reputation for trading down came from in an interview before the draft, Dubas’ first move was to trade the 25th overall pick for the 29th and the 76th pick, a third rounder. The 29th pick was used to select Rasmus Sandin, a left-handed defenseman from Dubas’ Soo Greyhounds. While I like this pick, it caused some ripples because a touted center prospect and first-round faller, Joe Veleno, was still on the board and was then picked by Detroit at 30th.

I personally believe a lot of the gut negative reactions came from people clinging to the names they know going into the draft, where Veleno had been well known as one of the few available centers. The reaction was a lot more dramatic than called for by the actual projected value difference between the picks. We don’t know why the Leafs didn’t pick Veleno, but it’s important to remember that other teams also skipped him 28 times before the Leafs did and there were even a few scouting folks who had Sandin ahead of Veleno anyway.

The bottom line is we won’t know who’s right for at least a year or two, maybe more.

The fandom is understandingly twitchy considering that the Leafs used to have a habit of drafting the first coke machine they could get their hands on. Even though you may have selected a different guy, it’s important to remember that picking Sandin isn’t some 6 foot 7 defenseman who’s legs have the flexibility of a tree trunk. Sandin projects to be a potential top-4 defender and is a safe bet, with a high floor, even if he doesn’t likely have the high ceiling some people hoped for in the first round.

It’s also not fair to only look at the 29th pick alone—especially considering all things indicate that Sandin would have been their pick at 25 anyway. This makes the extra third rounder basically a free lottery ticket, and the 76th that Dubas acquired by trading down turned into perhaps my favorite prospect in this crop.

Seymon Der-Arguchintsev.

Say that three times fast.

SDA is small center who played on a terrible Peterborough Petes OHL team. He’s a skilled playmaker who still produced effectively even though he didn’t have much in the way of help putting his passes into the net. He’s also the youngest player in the entire draft. Had he been born just one day later then he wouldn’t have been draft eligible until 2019, which means you can look at his production this year more like a Draft-1 year, knowing he has a lot of room to grow both his game and mature physically. As a Russian import, he also has the freedom to play in the AHL or another league next year (unlike North American CHLer’s who have to go to the NHL or nothing) if Peterborough looks like a bad fit. This gives the Leafs that much more control over his development which, as mentioned earlier, he has lots of extra time to work on.

On the other side of the age scale, one of my other favorites is second-round pick Sean Durzi, an overage RHD from the Owen Sound Attack. After going undrafted in 2017, he’s looked dominant this year. He’s also a Leafs lifer and has been lighting up his twitter with how excited he is to be drafted by Toronto.

Which doesn’t say much about his game but is, in fact, delightful.

All in all, the Leafs clearly didn’t prioritize size and instead seemed to take a lot of guys noted for their “Hockey IQ”. They took some good high ceiling flyers in the later rounds (notably SDA and Filip Kral, a Czech LHD out from the Spokane Chiefs). One kind of surprising trend was the scouting reports on a high number of their picks noted skating as a weakness, which is a bit shocking considering the way the game is moving. My hair-brained working theory is that the Leafs see this as a fixable problem and therefore an inefficiency to exploit.

The Leafs have had highly touted skating coach Barb Underhill, former Olympic figure skater turned NHL skating guru, and others who have produced amazing results on the Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning, with whom Underhill also works. The example that most comes to mind is Travis Dermott, who was also knocked for foot speed and skating in his draft year and is now considered one of the best skaters on the Leafs’ squad.

It’s purely speculation but if they had a strategy that involved their skating experts evaluating the skating deficits of their potential picks for fixability, or if they simply believe they have a good chance of fixing most prospects’ weakness in this area, then they’ve got themselves a clever formula for obtaining talents, like on ice intelligence and puck handling skills, that aren’t so easily taught.

 Free Agency Thoughts

To be honest, NHL free agency is usually a pretty barren desert, with most big name UFAs signing extensions before Free Agency even begins on July 1st. This year is no different, with one exception.

It’s looking like John Tavares will hit Free Agency, or at least get really close.

Tavares, the New York Islanders’ crown jewel of a top-ten center, made it to the “courting period” which began on June 24th. He will entertain pitches from five NHL teams in LA this week, as well as up to four others remotely.

It’s been confirmed that the Leafs are, in fact, one of the five teams who will give a full pitch in California.

The Leafs have historically been linked to native-born UFAs. They even got to the interview stage with Steven Stamkos before he signed his extension in Tampa. However, the script is pretty different than it was a few years ago, with Tampa a dominant force and Toronto… not that.

Tavares on the other hand plays on a New York Islanders squad that allowed the most goals against in the NHL last year and has spent years facing arena issues that make it uncertain where they will even play year to year. And currently Toronto’s window is wide open with one of the strongest youth cores in the league.

The Leafs have also been cited as willing to “get creative” with their offer. With the massive amount of cap space they have in the 2018-19 season, before Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have to ink new deals next summer, they could feasibly offer Tavares a one-year max deal of almost 16 million dollars. They would then have the option to sign him to a second, longer term, deal at a lower AAV or let him walk to someone that can offer him more. The second deal would make this pretty blatant cap circumvention, but the Leafs don't have two capologists as AGMs for nothing.

In all likelihood, inherently risk-averse and loyal NHLer that Tavares is, he won’t take a one-year max deal and will take the 8-year, 88 million dollar deal the Isles are reportedly offering him.

There are obviously other UFAs and trade targets to think about but they don’t really matter until the John Tavares is off the board.

#Scratchpad #Draft #Prospects #Free Agency #Summer 2018