#cook was the worst player of the reign defense but SURE

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Ranking 2020 NFL offseasons from worst to first

With the NFL universe on pause, now seems like a good time to continue our big-picture look into how each organization did during the player-acquisition period of the offseason. I’m going to run through all 32 teams and rank the work they did from worst to first.

To measure how each team performed, I’m comparing their roster, cap situation and future draft capital at the beginning of the offseason to what they have in mid-May. The most important thing a team can do is add talent, so those that made significant inroads in improving their roster will rank highly, while those that saw key pieces leave without replacements won’t. I also considered how each attacked their specific needs, how well they read the market and handled the financial side of their deals, and what they did to create future draft picks.

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For each team, I’ll include what went right, what went wrong, what they might have done differently with a bit of hindsight and what they need to do next in the months to come. Finally, and this is important: These aren’t power rankings of how these teams will perform in 2020. Some of the worst teams in the league from last season will finish at or near the top of these rankings because they were able to draft immediate-impact players at key positions, while some of the best teams shed talent or weren’t able to add much in the draft because they already had dealt away picks.

I started Monday with the bottom eight teams, and I’ll hit eight more on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then finish up with the top eight on Thursday. Jump to my last-ranked team here.

Jump to a team: ATL | BAL | CAR | CHI DET | GB | HOU | JAX KC | LAR | MIN | NE PHI | PIT | SEA | TEN

What went right: You can’t accuse new coach Matt Rhule of neglecting the defense. He transformed a Panthers unit that ranked 25th in DVOA and 31st in scoring defense a year ago, using each of his seven draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. Seven of the 10 players who lined up on more than 50% of the defensive snaps for Carolina in 2019 will not return.

On offense, Rhule was able to lure LSU offensive coordinator Joe Brady to take the same job; he’ll work with new starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The Panthers bought low on former Jets wideout Robby Anderson and could sport one of the league’s top offensive tackle combinations with Taylor Moton and the newly acquired Russell Okung.

What went wrong: My biggest indicator for these rankings is measuring the talent added versus the talent lost, and the Panthers lost linebacker Luke Kuechly, cornerback James Bradberry, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, guard Trai Turner and former league MVP Cam Newton, among others. The Turner-for-Okung trade swapped out a younger, better player who is under contract for a longer period of time for Okung, who plays a more valuable position but missed most of 2019 with a pulmonary embolism. The former Chargers and Seahawks tackle is a free agent after this season, and the Panthers don’t seem interested in evaluating 2019 second-rounder Greg Little at the position after seemingly drafting him to take over there.

Former first-round pick Teddy Bridgewater will step in as the new starter in Carolina. Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Rhule clearly intends to rebuild this team in his desired image, and that’s going to take more than one offseason. That’s totally understandable, and the Panthers took strides toward those long-term goals. In the short term, though, they might have less talent on their roster in 2020 than they did on paper in 2019, even if they never had a healthy Newton. They also locked up Christian McCaffrey, and while there’s no doubting his talent, signing running backs to massive contracts has been a dangerous game.

What they could have done differently: Given Rhule’s emphasis on physical football, I wonder if Carolina would have been better off holding on to Turner and using the No. 7 overall pick on one of the left tackle prospects, like Jedrick Wills Jr. or Mekhi Becton. First-round pick Derrick Brown, a defensive tackle, looks to be a better defender against the run than he is a pass-rusher, and in a division in which he’ll be going up against the Falcons, Saints and Bucs, I’m not sure that’s the best use of a top-10 pick.

What’s left to do: Add a cornerback. After losing Bradberry to free agency, the Panthers look to start the season with inconsistent 2018 second-rounder Donte Jackson as their No. 1 corner. On the other side, All-Name team member Corn Elder will be competing with fourth-round pick Troy Pride Jr. The second-best wideouts on the opposing teams in this division are Emmanuel Sanders, Chris Godwin and Calvin Ridley. Yikes. This is a logical landing spot for somebody like Dre Kirkpatrick or Eli Apple.

What went right: The Jaguars looked to be stuck with quarterback Nick Foles’ contract after the former Super Bowl MVP lost his job in 2019, but they managed to trade him to the Bears without having to assume any of the remaining guarantees and got a fourth-round pick in the process. Jacksonville ended up paying Foles a little over $30 million for four starts, but since that all took place before the offseason began, I’m leaving that part of the story aside. If it weren’t for the DeAndre Hopkins miracle between the Cardinals and Texans, general manager Dave Caldwell getting out of the Foles deal would be the most impressive trade of the offseason.

The Jags also took steps to move on from their disastrous move to take running back Leonard Fournette with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2017 draft, when Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and more than a half-dozen other running backs who have proved to be more productive were still on the board. (Seriously: Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones, Chris Carson and even undrafted free agent Austin Ekeler look like better backs than Fournette right now.) The Jaguars could have been fooled by a largely inefficient season from Fournette in 2019, but they declined his fifth-year option and desperately tried to trade the former LSU star, to no avail.

What went wrong: Boxed into a bad cap situation by years of free-agent spending and missteps, the Jaguars had little choice but to trade cornerback A.J. Bouye and cut defensive tackle Marcell Dareus. No real issue there, but the moves the Jags made with the cap space they had left were curious. Joe Schobert is a talented player, and I’m sure the Jaguars want to reset their culture, but a team that already has Myles Jack on a four-year, $57 million deal is a bad candidate to hand a big contract to another off-ball linebacker. Schobert’s five-year, $53.8 million deal means they have two of the most expensive inside linebackers in the league.

Tight end Tyler Eifert’s two-year deal came in at $9.3 million as opposed to the originally reported figure of $15.5 million, but either deal seems optimistic for a player who has pieced together one impactful season across seven years as a pro. Jacksonville understandably wanted to add a possible playmaker for Gardner Minshew, but we’re now four years removed from Eifert’s big season. The team also neglected to bring in meaningful competition for their second-year quarterback.

Yannick Ngakoue, a third-round pick in 2016, has 37.5 sacks over four seasons in Jacksonville. Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire

The Jags haven’t resolved the Yannick Ngakoue situation, with the star defensive end picking fights with ownership on Twitter and insisting he won’t play for the organization again. With each passing day, the franchise loses more and more leverage; remember last year, when the Seahawks were able to get a first-round pick for pass-rusher Frank Clark around the draft, and the Texans were forced to settle for a third-round pick when they shipped off Jadeveon Clowney at the end of August.

What they could have done differently: The Jaguars should have traded down in the first round when they had the opportunity. The Falcons were the most frequently rumored candidate to move up, likely for cornerback CJ Henderson, whom the Jags drafted at No. 9 overall. They needed a cornerback, so I have no issue with them drafting Henderson, but under Caldwell’s reign, they haven’t shown much of an aptitude for drafting. Caldwell’s picks in the top five include Luke Joeckel, Blake Bortles, Dante Fowler Jr., Jalen Ramsey and Fournette. Even if they had an excellent grade on Henderson, the Jaguars don’t really deserve any benefit of the doubt when it comes to evaluating prospects. They would have been better off adding an extra selection or two.

What’s left to do: Trade Ngakoue. I don’t like to see teams give up on star players, but it seems clear that he has no intention of signing an extension in Jacksonville, and I’d rather the team get something close to meaningful value as opposed to settling for a midround pick. It’s going to be tough with Clowney and Everson Griffen still available on the open market, but I wonder if the Jags can still coax a first-round pick out of a team like the Seahawks.

What went right: The Falcons finally acknowledged their need to rebuild on defense. Out went pass-rusher Vic Beasley Jr., cornerback Desmond Trufant, linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and defensive tackle Adrian Clayborn, and they declined the fifth-year option on edge rusher Takkarist McKinley. Atlanta finally made a significant investment on an outside player by signing Dante Fowler Jr., and it used first- and second-round picks on cornerback A.J. Terrell and defensive lineman Marlon Davidson. Thomas Dimitroff’s team projects to come away with one compensatory fifth-round pick and a pair of selections in the sixth round of the 2021 draft.

What went wrong: Fowler was the only significant veteran addition this team made to that flailing defense, as Atlanta otherwise re-signed tackle Tyeler Davison and traded a seventh-round pick for Dolphins washout Charles Harris, a defensive end who went No. 22 overall in 2017. I’m worried that the Falcons might be fooled by what happened in the second half, when they allowed a league-best 25.8% conversion rate on third downs. Research has suggested that teams that grossly outplay their first- and second-down performance on third down struggle to keep that up, and while they were middle of the pack by expected points added on first and second down during the final eight weeks of the season, they were the league’s best defense on third downs.

You could argue that they didn’t have the cap room to make many additions, but after cutting Devonta Freeman, they still found a way to hand Todd Gurley a one-year, $5.5 million deal. Even if Gurley returns to form and has a great season, this is the exact sort of organization that needed to focus on finding a cheap, multiyear solution at running back. The Falcons have committed serious resources to their offensive line, have a great passing game and desperately needed to save money for their defense.

What they could have done differently: The money they committed to Gurley could have been part of an offer for someone like Jadeveon Clowney, although it would have also required Atlanta to restructure someone’s contract, likely wideout Julio Jones. As it stands, the Falcons don’t have the cap space to even go after a veteran edge rusher like Vinny Curry or Clay Matthews.

What’s left to do: Carve out some space for a cornerback. With plenty of veteran options still available, the Falcons project to start Terrell, Isaiah Oliver and Kendall Sheffield. They are enthused about Sheffield after his rookie season, but I’d like to see them find a couple of million dollars to bring in somebody like Darqueze Dennard or even a veteran like Brandon Carr. Releasing backup running back Brian Hill would free up $2.1 million.

What went right: Kansas City mostly stayed put with its Super Bowl-winning roster, sticking to one-year deals and small deals to retain players such as quarterback Chad Henne and corner Bashaud Breeland. The Chiefs were able to convince receiver Sammy Watkins to take a pay cut, and they franchise-tagged star defensive tackle Chris Jones.

What went wrong: Breeland was arrested at gunpoint on May 1. Watkins is still earning nearly $9 million with the chance to earn $6 million more in incentives in 2020, which is a lot for a player who had been ordinary during his first two seasons in Kansas City before breaking out during the postseason. The team also didn’t resolve Jones’ future with a trade or a long-term contract, meaning it’s likely to end up getting one more year out of him before losing him as a free agent in 2021.

The Chiefs used their first-round pick on running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who should end up as one of the most productive backs in football when he takes over as the full-time starter. That’s a good thing, but when you look at recent history for this team, just about anybody who has been in that role has been among the most productive backs in football. Kareem Hunt was there as a third-round pick. Damien Williams has been a touchdown machine in the playoffs. Even before Andy Reid came to town, Jamaal Charles emerged as one of the best backs of the past decade as another third-rounder. Edwards-Helaire could be a star, but I wonder if the Chiefs would have been better off using their first-round pick on a position they’ve struggled to fill effectively, like cornerback, or targeted a wide receiver to replace Watkins.

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Louis Riddick goes through the Kansas City Chiefs’ 2020 schedule to break down some of the biggest challenges they will face.

What they could have done differently: Watkins ranks 59th in receiving yards over the past two years, placing him below the likes of Dede Westbrook, Jamison Crowder and Antonio Brown. Patrick Mahomes has been better with Watkins on the field over the past two years, but the difference isn’t enormous: He has posted a passer rating of 112.4 and a QBR of 84.7 with Watkins on the field, dropping off to 106.5 and 77.0, respectively, without the former Bills first-rounder. In a market in which every veteran wideout besides Randall Cobb failed to get the deal they were expecting, Watkins likely wouldn’t have come away with a similar deal if the Chiefs had let him go.

What’s left to do: Extend Mahomes. The team has just $1.4 million in cap space, and it’s difficult to imagine the star quarterback’s 2020 cap number staying anywhere close to its current figure of $5.3 million on a new deal, so this is going to be a difficult negotiation. His résumé over his first two years as a starter — league MVP and Super Bowl MVP — is unprecedented in modern football. Mahomes isn’t going anywhere, but can the Chiefs get a deal done now as opposed to 2021, when he will be even more expensive? And will he be the first player in football to sign a contract worth $40 million per season?

What went right: Without a first-round pick or much cap space, the Steelers had about as quiet of an offseason as possible. I liked a couple of their smaller moves in trading for Ravens defensive lineman Chris Wormley and signing tight end Eric Ebron to a two-year deal. They’re also projected to receive fourth- and sixth-round compensatory picks after losing defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and center B.J. Finney in free agency. The one key player they kept was outside linebacker Bud Dupree, who had a career year in 2019 and was retained via the franchise tag.

What went wrong: Outside of Wormley, the Steelers didn’t do much to replace Hargrave. Last year’s disastrous run with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges should have pushed them to target a significant backup quarterback behind the returning Ben Roethlisberger, but players like Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston all hit the market and went elsewhere.

What they could have done differently: I can’t pick too many holes in what Pittsburgh did beyond the backup quarterback situation. It’s in this grouping because most teams added more talent, either through free agency or the draft. The Steelers probably feel thrilled about using their first-round pick to acquire defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick last year, but since that trade happened during the season, I’m not including it in this analysis.

What’s left to do: Upgrade behind Roethlisberger. The Steelers should absolutely be in the market for Cam Newton or Joe Flacco. If Roethlisberger returns from his elbow injury and stays healthy all season, great. If not, they can’t afford to let another dominant season from their defense go to waste because their offense is averaging one point per possession, as it did during the second half of 2019.

What went right: Nobody added more future draft capital this offseason than the Vikings. Trades produced two fourth-rounders and a fifth-rounder in 2021. They let cornerbacks Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander leave in free agency, with those moves expected to generate third- and sixth-round compensatory picks. Minnesota should have 12 picks in next year’s draft.

This offseason was about clearing out cap space and retooling on defense for the Vikings, but I liked that they were still able to replace Linval Joseph with wildly underrated Ravens defensive tackle Michael Pierce on a team-friendly deal. Moving on from corner Xavier Rhodes could be addition by subtraction. They have also so far resisted the urge to sign running back Dalvin Cook to an extension after his breakout season.

Does trading Stefon Diggs to Buffalo fit on this side of the right/wrong debate? When I wrote about the trade, I suggested it could be a win-win for both sides. With the Vikings subsequently using the first-round pick from the trade to nab wide receiver Justin Jefferson, my feelings haven’t changed. Losing Diggs will hurt the team in the short term, but for an organization that wants to run the ball and use 22 personnel, transitioning to a cheaper option alongside Adam Thielen makes sense. If they were going to trade Diggs, they did it at the right time.

What went wrong: Diggs is really good! Even if you’re optimistic about Jefferson, the chances of a first-round pick turning into a top-10 wide receiver aren’t extremely high. The team was overdue for a reboot at cornerback, and they used first-, third-, and fifth-round picks there, but I would have liked to see the Vikings target at least one low-cost veteran to try to rehabilitate under Mike Zimmer.

Mike Zimmer and the Vikings brought back ascending safety Anthony Harris on the franchise tag. Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota also didn’t re-sign defensive end Everson Griffen after the longtime starter voided his deal, and the only free agent they signed to replace him was rotation lineman Anthony Zettel. In part, the Vikings were hamstrung by franchising safety Anthony Harris, which was a bit of a surprise. While he has intercepted nine passes since moving into the starting lineup during the 2018 season, it’s not a great use of resources for them to commit nearly $23 million of cap space to their safeties in 2020.

What they could have done differently: I would have let Harris leave and used the $11.4 million in cap space created to go after an edge rusher. The Vikings reportedly shopped Harris for a draft pick, but I suspect they would have netted a fifth- or sixth-round compensatory pick if they had let him leave. They were reportedly negotiating an extension with Harris before the draft, and if they can get a deal done and reduce his 2020 cap hold, they could use the cap space to go after help at defensive end.

What’s left to do: Add a backup quarterback. Another team that needs help here! The Vikings have Sean Mannion, Jake Browning and 2020 seventh-round pick Nate Stanley behind Kirk Cousins. The newly extended veteran hasn’t been on the injury report since Week 1 of the 2013 campaign, but if Cousins were to go down, Minnesota’s playoff chances would go kaput. With Gary Kubiak taking over as offensive coordinator, the logical backup to target would be Joe Flacco, who played under Kubiak in Baltimore.

What went right: Finally freed of the last vestiges of the Joe Flacco contract, the Ravens used their newfound cap space to try to build a devastating defensive line. While they let Michael Pierce leave and decided against confirming their deal with Michael Brockers after a physical, they traded a fifth-round pick for Jaguars star Calais Campbell and signed Derek Wolfe to a one-year deal. Baltimore then found its long-term replacement for C.J. Mosley by using its first-round pick on LSU linebacker Patrick Queen.

On offense, the Ravens found the guy who will likely start for them at running back in 2021 and beyond by using a second-round pick on J.K. Dobbins. They also netted a second-round pick from the Falcons for Hayden Hurst, and while Hurst will start for Atlanta, it’s always nice to get a premium pick for your third-best tight end.

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What went wrong: The only disappointing thing the Ravens had to deal with was losing legendary guard Marshal Yanda to retirement. They are an offensive line factory and used third- and fourth-round picks on Tyre Phillips and Ben Bredeson, respectively, but Yanda will be missed. Wolfe was a nice Plan B, but he was a downgrade from Brockers. The Ravens didn’t really replace Hurst, and given how frequently Mark Andrews has been banged up as a pro, I expected them to use a midround pick to find a backup there.

What they could have done differently: They franchised Matthew Judon as a linebacker, which saved them about $2 million as opposed to giving him the edge rusher tag. Judon hasn’t signed his tag, and with the Ravens unlikely to sign him to an extension, they haven’t been able to trade the 27-year-old for a draft pick. Had they known Jadeveon Clowney would be available this late in the offseason, I wonder if they would have simply let Judon hit free agency, picked up a compensatory pick and signed the former first overall selection on a one-year deal. Realistically, outside of adding another tight end, the Ravens did what the Ravens do, which is draft and develop talent.

What’s left to do: Add an edge defender. Even if Judon returns, they could still use another pass-rusher. Clowney might be too rich for their blood, although I’d love to see them use what will likely be the last bargain year on Lamar Jackson’s deal to stretch Clowney onto their roster. Baltimore still has to extend star left tackle Ronnie Stanley, whose price just went up after the Laremy Tunsil deal; if the team can bring Stanley’s 2020 cap figure down from $12.9 million, it might have just enough space for Clowney.

What went right: The Eagles addressed their two obvious weaknesses heading into the offseason. The trade for Darius Slay netted them the No. 1 corner they sorely needed after years of frustrating play at defensive back, and general manager Howie Roseman went all-in for speed during the draft by adding receivers Jalen Reagor, John Hightower and trade acquisition Marquise Goodwin. The perennially creative Eagles also found a way to add a run-plugging defensive tackle by signing away Javon Hargrave from the Steelers, and the one-year, $1 million deal they gave corner Nickell Robey-Coleman might have been one of the best value signings of the offseason.

What went wrong: Solving the problem at cornerback might have created holes elsewhere on defense, as Philadelphia declined safety Malcolm Jenkins’ option and released linebacker Nigel Bradham without really replacing either veteran. Jalen Mills was re-signed and is expected to move to safety, and the Eagles appear set to hand the middle linebacker job to T.J. Edwards after he played 112 snaps as an undrafted rookie. Former Chargers linebacker Jatavis Brown also could figure in the mix, but if teams feel comfortable avoiding Slay to target other mismatches on defense, the Eagles won’t realize much of an improvement from their long-awaited move.

Could 38-year-old offensive tackle Jason Peters return to Philadelphia for another season? Winslow Townson/AP Images for Panini

What they could have done differently: You could argue that they might have been better off just riding out what was a relatively cheap cornerback market and holding on to their third- and fifth-round picks. Slay is a genuine top-flight cornerback, but when you factor in the cost of both trading away a pick and signing Slay to a three-year, $50.5 million extension, would the Eagles have been better off simply signing Robey-Coleman and another cornerback, like Chris Harris Jr.? Keeping those picks would have allowed them to draft a safety to replace Jenkins or add valuable offensive line depth they don’t have after Jason Peters and Halapoulivaati Vaitai left this offseason.

What’s left to do: Add offensive line depth. The Eagles have reportedly been in talks to bring back Peters, which would be interesting; they drafted Andre Dillard in the first round last year with the expectation that he would take over for Peters in 2020, but Dillard struggled across his 337 offensive snaps last season, and this offseason will make it difficult for any young player expected to grow into a new role. If they don’t sign Peters, they would be looking at options like Cordy Glenn or Kelvin Beachum at tackle. Larry Warford will likely be out of Philly’s price range, but it could look toward someone like Ron Leary on the interior.

Come back Wednesday for Nos. 16-9 on the list.

Nos. 32-25

What went right: Hmm. We’re starting this series with the toughest question, huh? I suppose the two-year, $3 million deal the Texans gave former Eagles and Chargers defensive back Jaylen Watkins could be decent value if they slot him in the correct role. They also upgraded their special-teams coverage units by importing players such as Eric Murray and Michael Thomas. Second-round pick Ross Blacklock, Houston’s first selection in the 2020 draft, could turn into a useful interior disrupter and third pass-rusher for a team that had the league’s fourth-worst adjusted sack rate.

What went wrong: The Texans traded away arguably their second-best player for pennies on the dollar because he wanted a new contract and then overpaid for just about every one of their offseason additions. Even if they hadn’t traded wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and a swap of fourth-rounders for a second-round pick and running back David Johnson’s bloated contract, this would be a disaster.

Coach Bill O’Brien misread the market and handed out significant deals to cornerback Bradley Roby (three years, $36 million), wide receiver Randall Cobb (three years, $27 million), kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn (four years, $17.7 million) and Murray (three years, $18 million) and even threw in a one-year, $4 million pact for backup quarterback AJ McCarron. O’Brien finished up by giving agentless left tackle Laremy Tunsil a three-year, $66 million extension, a market-shifting deal everyone saw coming from the moment the Texans traded away multiple first-round picks to acquire Tunsil without negotiating an extension as part of the pact.

Bill O’Brien and the Texans have made some head-scratching decisions this offseason, and Deshaun Watson is in line for a contract extension. John Grieshop/Getty Images

What they could have done differently: How much time do you have? Let’s start by using the window afforded them during the trading process last year to insist on getting Tunsil signed to an extension as part of that trade. The team reportedly attempted to sign Carlos Hyde to an extension before free agency; Hyde isn’t much more than a league-average running back, but if signing him meant that O’Brien wouldn’t have assumed the Johnson contract, it would have been a hidden victory for this team.

The Texans shouldn’t have traded away Hopkins, contract demands or not. The Falcons were able to satiate Julio Jones when he was three years away from the end of his deal by moving money around before handing him a deal with two years to go. And if you don’t want to follow that model, what was Hopkins going to do in a league in which the new collective bargaining makes it virtually impossible for players to hold out?

Read more: Barnwell graded more than 100 signings and trades this offseason

If O’Brien thought his relationship with Hopkins was unsalvageable and he needed to trade his star wide receiver away, that’s one thing. He simply had to get more out of that deal than an underwater running back contract and a second-round pick. Even if Hopkins wanted a new deal, the Stefon Diggs trade saw the Vikings send a less productive player with a reputation of creating drama inside his building to the Bills for a much greater haul, most notably a first-round pick. Beating the Vikings to the punch for that Bills deal would have been more defensible.

What’s left to do: Trade Kenny Stills. The Texans don’t really have a need for Stills as their fourth wide receiver behind Cobb, Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller, and the former Dolphins wideout has $7 million in unguaranteed money due on the final year of his deal. There’s an obvious fit here with the Packers, who didn’t get all of their shopping done this offseason.

What went right: Offensive tackle Germain Ifedi didn’t live up to expectations as a first-round pick for Seattle, but the Bears were able to sign the oft-penalized lineman to a one-year deal for just over $1 million, which is good value for a solid run-blocker. They will try Ifedi at guard as a replacement for the retired Kyle Long. General manager Ryan Pace also took the first steps out of the Mitchell Trubisky business, declining the quarterback’s fifth-year option while bringing in Nick Foles to compete for a starting job. While Robert Quinn’s five-year, $70 million deal is expensive, it’s for a player for whom ESPN’s pass rush win rate analysis suggests was the most effective pass-rusher in the league over the past two seasons. I also liked the flier Chicago took on former Steelers first-round corner Artie Burns.

What went wrong: Despite the fact that Foles’ contract was a disaster for the Jaguars, the Bears sent a fourth-round pick to acquire him and didn’t force the Jags to eat any of the money, instead restructuring $21 million in guarantees to come due over the next three seasons. Foles could work out as the team’s starter, but this is the equivalent of signing an expensive three-year gym membership as a college senior. There couldn’t have been much of a market for Foles, and Andy Dalton, who was cut by the Bengals after the draft, came without the pick or significant cash attached.

The Jimmy Graham deal was likely the worst contract of free agency, as a Bears team that had already committed significant assets to tight ends Dion Sims, Adam Shaheen and Trey Burton under Pace gave Graham a two-year, $16 million deal with $9 million guaranteed and a truly inexplicable no-trade clause. Graham can’t block, and he was anonymous during his time with the Packers. Chicago needed three voidable years to re-sign linebacker Danny Trevathan on a three-year, $21.8 million deal, which is like taking out a loan so you can help pay for that gym membership. There are still questions about what this team has at wide receiver and in the secondary, where it will likely need second-rounder Jaylon Johnson to start as a rookie.

What they could have done differently: Waited out the quarterback market. Foles wasn’t going to have many suitors, and the Jaguars had little leverage in moving his massive contract. Judging from the deals that Dalton and Jameis Winston signed — and the offers Joe Flacco and Cam Newton have yet to get — there was more supply in the quarterback market than demand this offseason. Wiping away the Graham deal goes without saying; if the Bears wanted to go after a versatile tight end, they were better off handing a similar deal to Eric Ebron, who signed with Pittsburgh for less money.

What’s left to do: Add a veteran cornerback. The bottom tier of the cornerback market still has plenty of options available. Guys such as Eli Apple, Trumaine Johnson and Dre Kirkpatrick were generally problems in 2019, but the Bears should be able to sign one of them for little more than the veterans minimum. I would prefer Apple, who is still only 24 and was competent for the Saints in 2018.

What went right: The Patriots finally invested at tight end, using third-round picks on Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene. Franchising and retaining guard Joe Thuney gives them their best chance of building around the running game as they shift their offensive identity. Perhaps most important, they kept their dominant secondary together by re-signing Devin McCourty to a two-year deal, losing only Duron Harmon to the Lions.

Behind the 32-year-old McCourty at safety, coach Bill Belichick made obviously Belichickian additions by signing Adrian Phillips and using a second-round pick on the versatile and athletic Kyle Dugger. New England also banked three projected compensatory picks for the players it lost in free agency, including a third-rounder for quarterback Tom Brady and fourth-rounders for linebackers Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy.

What went wrong: The Patriots had Brady at quarterback, and now they have Jarrett Stidham. Even a diminished Brady would still project to be a playoff-caliber quarterback with the sort of defense this team had in 2019; the same thing isn’t clear with Stidham, who appears to be the Week 1 starter. Losing Brady is one thing, but the Pats neglecting to make a meaningful move for someone like Andy Dalton seems shortsighted and stubborn.

Franchising Thuney means New England has a league-high $28.6 million of its cap committed to guards in 2020, nearly $7 million more than any other team. The Thuney tag cost the Patriots valuable cap space and eliminated their leverage in dealing with Rob Gronkowski when he wanted to return, forcing them to trade their legendary tight end to the Bucs for a midround pick. The Pats also lost three members of their starting front seven with Collins, Van Noy and defensive tackle Danny Shelton leaving town. While I have faith Belichick will replace those guys in the long term, the defense should take a step backward in 2020.

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Bill Belichick is confident Jarrett Stidham will be able to lead the Patriots’ offense.

What they could have done differently: When Brady was clamoring for more money during the summer of 2019, the Patriots gave him a “two-year deal,” which was really an $8 million raise and a ticket to free agency after the season. Given that Brady ended up netting only a two-year, $50 million deal on the open market, this team could have made him a credible multiyear offer to stick around for the remainder of his career.

Would Brady have taken that kind of offer if the Pats had made it at this time last year? It’s impossible to say. Given what both sides had to gain, though, it’s not hard to imagine a common ground where the Patriots could have given him a new deal with two years of guarantees and a voidable year or two attached to help create short-term cap space. (The Pats used that space on Antonio Brown, which is another thing that didn’t go well.)

Belichick is obviously not stupid; the Patriots chose not to make that sort of offer for a reason. Stidham’s performance over the next couple of years will make it clear whether the legendary coach was right to move on from the most fruitful relationship in NFL history.

What’s left to do: Clear out cap room and wait. New England should be targeting veterans who come available now that we’re on the other side of the post-June 1 window. (I know that sounds weird, but in the NFL, the middle of May comes after June 1.) Belichick can clear out about $5 million by cutting backup running back Rex Burkhead and offensive lineman Jermaine Eluemunor or gin up another $3 million or so by releasing safety Terrence Brooks and tight end Matt LaCosse. The Pats should be in the market for a veteran tight end, but more important, it’s money they could put toward someone like Cam Newton or Joe Flacco, if they’re healthy enough to compete with Stidham and Brian Hoyer.

What went right: The Lions went all-in on rebuilding their oft-frustrating secondary, trading cornerback Darius Slay and replacing him by signing Desmond Trufant and drafting Jeff Okudah at No. 3 overall. On paper, the trio of Okudah, Trufant and Justin Coleman would rank as one of the best cornerback combinations in the league. Trading for safety Duron Harmon completed the defensive back makeover. They will miss Slay, but even with him on the field last season, they allowed a passer rating of 97.4, which would have been the eighth-worst mark in the league.

What went wrong: Coach Matt Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn elected to rebuild most of their defense by acquiring the players Bill Belichick didn’t want to keep, a move that typically turns out poorly for other teams. Jamie Collins’ three-year, $30 million deal seemed particularly onerous for a linebacker who was a mess outside of New England during his run with Cleveland. The Lions will now start four former Pats on defense in Collins, Harmon, Trey Flowers and Danny Shelton. They look perilously thin along the defensive line, and while Belichick has been able to mold middling players into contributors across his front seven, Patricia’s players have generally been better elsewhere than they were playing for him in Detroit.

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The Lions also weren’t able to parlay the No. 3 draft pick into a bidding war between the Chargers and Dolphins, forcing them to stay put. Okudah should be an impact cornerback, and I don’t have any issue with them drafting him, but this team could have sorely used an extra first-round pick. Detroit used its second-round pick on running back D’Andre Swift, and while he is a talented player, this isn’t a roster that can afford to use two second-round picks on running backs across three years. You could argue Kerryon Johnson is a sunk cost, but the Lions could have addressed running back with one of a number of veterans at minimal cost.

Instead, Detroit hit free agency yet again, and its deals were questionable. Trufant hasn’t lived up to expectations over the past three seasons. The five-year, $45 million deal it handed Halapoulivaati Vaitai pays the former Eagles swing tackle like he is an upper-echelon starter. It sure looks reminiscent of the big deal that Detroit handed former starting right tackle Rick Wagner, which didn’t work out.

What they could have done differently: Resisted the urge to go after as many former Patriots as possible. The Collins deal is a mess, and under Belichick, the Patriots have exhibited the ability to develop players such as Shelton and Harmon into useful contributors. Patricia and Quinn are trying to buy them instead. If the Lions couldn’t trade down in the first round, they should have used their second-rounder on a position that’s tougher to fill than halfback.

What’s left to do: Add defensive line help. Detroit signed Nick Williams to a two-year deal after he impressed with the Bears in his first significant stretch of pro action as a 29-year-old, but it needs another pass-rusher to mix in on a rotational basis. I’d love to see the Lions sign Jadeveon Clowney, but more realistically, this would be a landing spot for somebody like Jabaal Sheard on the edge or Marcell Dareus on the interior. Hey, one of those guys used to play for the Patriots!

What went right: The Rams acknowledged sunk costs and made the difficult decision to essentially erase their 2018 offseason by releasing running back Todd Gurley and trading away receiver Brandin Cooks. They rebuilt their defensive line around Aaron Donald by signing Leonard Floyd and A’Shawn Robinson, and when Michael Brockers failed his physical with the Ravens, they brought him back at a reasonable price. L.A. is expected to add third- and fourth-round compensatory picks in the 2021 draft for losing linebackers Dante Fowler Jr. and Cory Littleton in free agency.

What went wrong: As I wrote about in my winners and losers column, the Rams didn’t address their needs. They used their two second-round picks on replacements for Gurley and Cooks; shouldn’t Sean McVay be able to coach up a running back and third receiver without having to use the team’s top picks? Their offensive line is still seriously troubling, and while they re-signed veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth, the 38-year-old committed 14 penalties last season, up from 12 over his prior two seasons combined. The Rams have two other line starters coming off season-ending knee injuries, and they added only Jamil Demby and seventh-round pick Tremayne Anchrum.

They didn’t replace Littleton, and while defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has a track record of molding inside linebackers out of unlikely places, Phillips is gone too. The Rams were ninth in defensive DVOA last season, and they will go from Phillips’ decades of experience to 37-year-old Brandon Staley, who has spent only three years in the NFL. They also lost longtime special-teams coordinator John Fassel, who will be replaced by former Central Michigan coach John Bonamego.

Sean McVay and the Rams have parted ways with several key contributors this offseason, including wide receiver Brandin Cooks. Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Perhaps more disconcertingly, it seems L.A. is either struggling with cash flow or going to present itself as such for the time being. It still hasn’t paid Gurley or Clay Matthews owed bonus money, which led to Matthews filing a grievance with the league. Last week, the Rams reportedly applied for a $500 million loan from the league to help finance cost overruns on their new stadium while simultaneously asking for a 30-year repayment term, which is double the typical length. These two issues likely aren’t directly related — the bonuses for Gurley and Matthews are a drop in the bucket relative to the stadium costs — but it’s fair to wonder whether the organization is in position to meet the lofty contract demands of star corner Jalen Ramsey.

What they could have done differently: As was the case with the Texans and Tunsil, the Rams should have negotiated an extension with Ramsey when they made their trade with the Jaguars. It would have been more difficult, given that they made the deal in the middle of the season, but even agreeing on the broader framework of an extension would have gone a long way. Given how Marcus Peters has played since leaving the Rams, it’s fair to argue that this team should have just held onto him and its two first-round picks, but that’s another conversation altogether.

The Rams didn’t have a first-round pick in April, and they won’t have one in next year’s draft, either. With that in mind, they badly needed to use one of their second-round picks this year on helping their offensive line. The organization was spoiled by what happened in 2017 and 2018, when the line stayed remarkably healthy and free-agent imports such as Whitworth and John Sullivan played at a high level. The line was a mess last season, and Jared Goff just isn’t good enough to overcome heavy pressure. He posted a league-worst passer rating of 34.5 under pressure. Even if second-round pick Cam Akers turns into a superstar, the Rams should have waited to target a running back.

What’s left to do: Sign Ramsey (or wide receiver Cooper Kupp). Both Kupp and Ramsey are in the final year of their respective deals, and the Rams don’t want to head to the 2021 offseason with the two stars vying for one franchise tag. They also will have to work on deals for tight end Gerald Everett and defensive backs John Johnson III and Troy Hill next year, and while some of their pending free agents will be allowed to leave, they probably want to lock up at least one of their big two before the season begins. Ramsey will look to reset the cornerback market and will be asking something in the range of $20 million per season.

What went right: In a market in which teams were aggressively paying for potential at offensive tackle, the Packers got a reasonable price in replacing Bryan Bulaga with Rick Wagner on a two-year, $11 million pact. While it wasn’t the first-round wide receiver Packers fans were craving, Devin Funchess could deliver good value on a one-year, $2.5 million deal as a second or third wideout. And while it’s not ideal for their chances of winning in 2020, if Green Bay did add its quarterback of the future when it drafted Jordan Love with the 26th pick, it would obviously push this offseason way higher than it ranks now.

What went wrong: In an offseason in which the draft was full of wide receiver talent and veteran wideout prices were depressed, the Packers really couldn’t come away with more than Funchess? Taking Love was one thing, but using a second-round pick on bruising running back AJ Dillon seemed more egregious. It also seemed to hint that Aaron Jones’ future after the season lies outside of Green Bay, which is unlikely to make many Packers fans happy.

The decision to move on from Bulaga also was curious, given that he signed a relatively friendly deal with the Chargers. It’s possible the Packers weren’t given an option to match, but if they could have signed Bulaga for three years and $30 million, they should have brought back their stalwart right tackle.

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They didn’t do much to address their defense. While they improved from 29th to 15th in DVOA after a spending spree in free agency last year, they are unlikely to be as healthy on the defensive side of the ball in 2020 after their starters missed a total of four games all season. They replaced linebacker Blake Martinez with Christian Kirksey, which should be a positive if Kirksey stays healthy, but I was surprised Green Bay didn’t try to do more to add depth on defense.

What they could have done differently: Realistically, even if the Packers wanted Love in Round 1, they should have gone out of their way to get one of the remaining wideouts in the second round. I’m not often an advocate for trading up, and it’s possible that opposing teams were quoting astronomical prices to the Packers after seeing how their fan base reacted to the Love pick, but they should have moved up in the second round to get someone like Laviska Shenault Jr. or Denzel Mims. Dillon basically has to turn into Derrick Henry for that pick to work, and both the track record and NFL career span of backs like Henry aren’t great.

What’s left to do: Acquire a veteran wideout. I mentioned Kenny Stills earlier, and a trade for the Texans wideout makes total sense.

What went right: The Seahawks added significant offensive line depth, re-signing Mike Iupati and signing the likes of B.J. Finney, Brandon Shell, Cedric Ogbuehi and Chance Warmack, before drafting Damien Lewis in the third round. With a thin depth chart at wide receiver behind starters Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, they were able to get a steal by adding Phillip Dorsett on a one-year deal for the veterans minimum. They also added some modestly priced depth at defensive end by signing Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin, and they made what looked to be an excellent trade in acquiring cornerback Quinton Dunbar from Washington for a fifth-round pick.

What went wrong: Dunbar’s near-term future appears to be uncertain after a warrant was issued for his arrest on armed robbery charges. The Seahawks will be able to get by without him, but they still haven’t acquired a primary pass-rusher after letting Jadeveon Clowney leave this offseason. The former first overall pick is still a free agent, but Seattle was 30th in adjusted sack rate with him and could be even worse without him. The two-year, $23 million deal the team gave defensive tackle Jarran Reed had a player-friendly structure, and it kept the franchise aligned with a player who was suspended for six games after being accused of domestic assault last year.

While it’s obviously too early to make significant judgments about draft picks, Seattle’s first-round selection of off-ball linebacker Jordyn Brooks was widely seen as a stretch for both the player and the positional value. The Seahawks have proved broader consensus wrong in the past — Metcalf and quarterback Russell Wilson come to mind — but Brooks will have to be great to overcome the needs this team had on either side of the line of scrimmage. Most of the offensive linemen Seattle added simply weren’t very good in other places, with Finney as an exception. The one-year, $7 million deal the Seahawks gave Greg Olsen was also a lot for a 35-year-old tight end with one healthy season over his past three years.

Jadeveon Clowney had a successful season in Seattle, and he hasn’t found a team in free agency. Could he return to the Seahawks? Jeffrey Vest/Getty Images

What they could have done differently: I would suggest that they should have traded down from No. 27, but I’m not sure there was much of a market for the pick. The Packers moved up to 26 to draft Love, but after that, no team moved up in the draft until the Colts did so at No. 41. Taking a player at a more significant position would make sense to me, such as offensive tackle Isaiah Wilson or defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos.

The depth approach Seattle took to its line was interesting, but adding a second guaranteed starter behind Finney would have been helpful. Shell appears likely to start at right tackle, but on a two-year, $9 million price tag, I would have liked to see the Seahawks try to finally find a pass-protecting tackle for Wilson by going after Bryan Bulaga.

What’s left to do: Bring back Clowney. A one-year reunion makes sense for both sides, given that the Seahawks are likely to be a playoff contender and Clowney wants to restore his free-agent stock on a winner. Seattle has about $15 million in cap space, which is a little more than what he might hope to land on a one-year pact at this point. General manager John Schneider could clear out $5.4 million by releasing backup pass-catchers Jacob Hollister and David Moore.

What went right: The ideal situation for the Titans would have been retaining quarterback Ryan Tannehill and franchising running back Derrick Henry, which is what ended up happening. Tennessee hasn’t yet come to terms on an extension with Henry, which I’m considering a plus given how poorly contracts have aged for running backs. It also lost right tackle Jack Conklin, but it replaced the former All-Pro by re-upping Dennis Kelly and using its first-round pick on Isaiah Wilson.

What went wrong: Losing Conklin and cornerback Logan Ryan cost the team two valuable starters, and I’m not sure the Kelly/Wilson combination or free-agent corner Johnathan Joseph are going to be as valuable in their absence. The Vic Beasley Jr. signing locked the Titans in on a one-year deal for a pass-rusher who has been successful for 1½ of his five pro seasons and didn’t offer any ability to keep him if he exceeds expectations.

Most notably, to get the Tannehill deal done, the Titans practically guaranteed their breakout quarterback three years and $91 million, which is a huge investment for a player whom the Dolphins paid $5 million to sell for a fourth-round pick at this time last year. He was one of the league’s best quarterbacks last season, but he has a lengthy injury history. The Titans also want to build around running the football, which makes a $31 million quarterback an expensive accessory.

What they could have done differently: I’m not sure the Titans had much of a choice, but even limiting the Tannehill deal to two guaranteed seasons would have been a much better deal. With hindsight, it’s fair to suggest they might have been better off letting him hit the market and going after somebody like Nick Foles or Andy Dalton at a much cheaper price. Likewise, for a team that has expressed interest in Jadeveon Clowney, the Titans would have been better off just signing Clowney to a one-year deal as opposed to Beasley. Some of that is hindsight, but the Beasley and Tannehill deals raised questions before we even saw how the rest of those respective markets worked out.

What’s left to do: Let Henry play out his franchise tag. When he was asked about a possible extension in January, Henry said the six-year, $90 million extension that Ezekiel Elliott signed with the Cowboys was “the floor.” Elliott’s deal paid him $37.6 million over its first three years.

Henry’s franchise tag is worth $10.2 million in 2020. If the Titans franchised him two more times, in 2021 and 2022, they would end up paying him $40.1 million, which is right about what Elliott’s deal included after accounting for cap inflation. They also would retain the leverage of going year to year with the ability to opt out if Henry gets hurt or doesn’t live up to expectations. The NFL’s running back economics are absolutely warped, and it’s unfair to Henry after his production over the past year and a half, but the Titans will likely regret it if they give him a Zeke-sized deal.

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[junker-town]

The Warriors’ fall from glory, explained

Can this Warriors season be saved?

Things are getting bad quick for the Warriors.

The Golden State Warriors were always going to be a different team this season after losing Kevin Durant in free agency and Klay Thompson to injury. But 0-2, having not led for a single second through 96 minutes of play, having lost by 19 to the Clippers at home and 28 to the Thunder in Oklahoma City? No one expected them to be this bad.

Why are they this bad? Are they this bad? What’s the path back to some semblance of Warriorhood? Are Stephen Curry and Steve Kerr and Draymond Green frauds? Are their championships tainted? Is this the end of a dynasty? Is this the end of this era of Warriors basketball?

Let’s dig in.

Are the Warriors actually this bad?

Are the Warriors the second or third worst team in the NBA? No, of course not. Golden State ran into a buzzsaw Clippers team on a mission to scare everyone in the opener. The Warriors looked massively unprepared to take a punch from the Thunder on Sunday, and they never recovered once they got way behind. The offense is a total mess with only two plus passers (Curry and Green) and with no one shooting well. The Warriors are trying to play like they always have, with movement of bodies and the ball. They just don’t have the players skilled enough to pull it off right now. The defense is a total mess right now, too. Golden State basically doesn’t have any playable centers, and D’Angelo Russell is an enormous defensive drop-off from Klay Thompson.

But the Warriors do have one of the five best players in the world in Curry, and a top-notch defender in Green, and a top-flight coach in Kerr. That combo, if healthy, prevents this team from being among the worst in the league. These two games are forming a bit of a mirage here.

Beyond Durant and Thompson, how did this team get so depleted so fast?

When Durant chose the Nets, the Warriors had two choices: let him walk or try to maneuver for an asset in return via sign-and-trade. Golden State, already capped out due to massive contracts for Curry, Thompson, and eventually Green, opted to pick up an asset in the transaction. The Nets weren’t going to keep restricted free agent D’Angelo Russell, having also nabbed Kyrie Irving in free agency. So the Warriors got creative and agreed to take back Russell on a fat contract.

But to do that, the Warriors had to cut salary. That meant trading Andre Iguodala and a draft pick to the Grizzlies. (Iguodala is now one of the most sought-after veterans who could hit the buy-out market. Memphis is trying to trade him for an asset before it comes to that.) So to get Russell, the Warriors lost Durant and had to trade Iguodala.

A pricey new contract for Thompson plus the Russell deal had the Warriors looking for other ways to lower the luxury tax bill for this season. One way of doing that was to waive Shaun Livingston, another rotation player for the title runs, to shed some guaranteed salary.

Jordan Bell and Quinn Cook walked in free agency. DeMarcus Cousins, injured again after not contributing much to the Warriors’ 2018-19 effort because of injury, left. Kevon Looney is hurt, and it doesn’t sound good. This is how a roster gets destroyed: a few big slashes and a dozen little cuts.

Why isn’t Russell working out yet?

It’s early. It’s been two games! Be patient.

That said, Russell had one season of success in Brooklyn, and he handled the ball a lot (31.9 percent usage rate, which is star level). That’s going to be different when you’re playing with Curry instead of Spencer Dinwiddie. Sure, Curry co-existed with Kevin Durant. But Durant also plays like a high-usage big man, not a high-usage guard. The impact is just different.

At minimum, there will be a serious adjustment period for Russell to learn how to play with Curry and vice versa. At maximum, Russell’s 2018-19 season was a bit of a fluke and he got paid off a mirage. The truth is probably somewhere in between, and will only be revealed with time and effort.

Smart money would probably bet on Kerr and Curry figuring out how to best use a talented guard, even if it means changing up the offense.

Does Curry need to be more like James Harden given the state of the roster?

I mean, that’d be fun to watch, right? No one knows whether Curry can really do that — he hasn’t played like that since Davidson. To suggest Curry can is to diminish Harden’s gifts and, frankly, Curry’s gifts too. But it’s something that I’m sure a few people within the Warriors front office have thought about.

Will the Warriors miss the playoffs?

It’s possible. The playoff teams from last season minus the Thunder and Warriors all look really good or at least still expect to be. That’s six teams. The Lakers are going to make it. That’s seven. The Mavericks and Timberwolves look game to compete this year. That’s nine. We can’t definitively say after two games that the Warriors are better than any of those teams or even the Thunder. I mean, what would the line on a Warriors-Suns game be right now? It’s possible the Warriors miss the playoffs. Mike Prada wrote all about that possibility before the season began.

If the Warriors miss the playoffs, does that tarnish the legacies of Curry and Kerr?

No. Of course not.

Why not? Take away Durant and Klay and they can’t win ...

You fool, the presence or absence of Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson are not the only variables here. The Warriors are starting Glenn Robinson III and on Sunday gave a start at center to forward Marquese Chriss, who got renounced by the Phoenix Suns and would have been out of the league right now if the Warriors didn’t need bodies. He started on Sunday.

Eric Paschall, a rookie who turns 23 next week, is third on the team in minutes. Rookies Jordan Poole and Ky Bowman have gotten run. Second-year players Jacob Evans and Omari Spellman are getting lots of run, by necessity.

We are not witnessing what happens when you take Durant and Thompson away from Curry, Kerr, and Green. We are witnessing what happens when you strip all veteran talent from around Curry, Kerr, and Green and replace it with D’Angelo Russell on a max deal and a thrift shop tote bag full of uncelebrated youngsters. And you’re still leaving them in a vicious Western Conference where even the bad teams have Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Steven Adams.

If you gave LeBron any leeway at all last season, you have to give it to the Warriors’ legends here. And if you didn’t give LeBron leeway last season, what’s wrong with you, hater?

Is it fair to cheer the Warriors’ demise?

If you are a fan of an NBA team the Warriors tormented in the past half-decade, of course it is fair. And if you are the fan of an NBA team other than, say, the reigning NBA champion Toronto Raptors, your team has definitely been tormented by the Warriors. Relish their demise ...

... for now. Klay will be back at some point, and odds are so will the Warriors. Get those jokes in now before it’s too late.

[biofunmy]

N.F.L. Week 10 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

The N.F.L. is down to one unbeaten team (the San Francisco 49ers), and you will have to wait until Monday night to see it play. This week’s games do not offer a lot of must-see matchups, but viewers should be buoyed considerably by the return of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 10, with all picks made against the point spread.

Last week’s record: 6-7-1

Overall record: 72-61-2

Sunday’s Best Games

Vikings at Cowboys, 8:20 p.m., NBC

Line: Cowboys -3 | Total: 47.5

As the Cowboys (5-3) went through a three-game losing streak, it was easy to wonder if their strong start to the season had been a mirage. Instead, it appears those three losses, in which Dallas dealt with injuries on its offensive line, were the anomaly. Back at something close to 100 percent, the Cowboys have rolled to consecutive wins with a combined score of 74-28.

Dallas’s hallmark this season has been the big play. Led by Amari Cooper, who is expected to play this week despite a bruised knee, the Cowboys’ wide receivers have produced 31 receptions of 20 or more yards through eight games, which is just eight short of the 39 they had in 2018. Cooper and Michael Gallup have done a great job of generating yardage after the catch, and quarterback Dak Prescott has thrived in Kellen Moore’s offense without taking away much productivity from Ezekiel Elliott and the running game.

The Vikings (6-3) are, in many ways, a similar team. Kirk Cousins has made good use of his star wide receivers while Dalvin Cook has churned out a league-leading 894 rushing yards. Both teams have above average defenses and, according to The Upshot, both face an extreme change in their postseason chances depending on the outcome. A win will give either team a 76 percent chance of a postseason berth, while a loss will drop Dallas to 53 percent and Minnesota to 49 percent.

With a close point spread and evenly matched teams, going with the home team seems right, especially with wide receiver Adam Thielen expected to miss the game for Minnesota. Pick: Cowboys -3

Panthers at Packers, 4:25 p.m., Fox

Line: Packers -5 | Total: 47

The Packers (7-2) started the year looking much improved on defense, but their enthusiasm has waned from week to week. They are still allowing fewer points per game (21) than they did last year (23.5), but their ranking in terms of total yardage allowed per game has declined from 18th in 2018 to 26th this year. Last week, those defensive shortcomings were evident as Green Bay was crushed after its offense pulled a disappearing act.

This week may not be any easier. Green Bay struggles to defend running backs, and the Panthers (5-3) have the most versatile and productive back in the N.F.L.: Christian McCaffrey, who is on a pace to make a serious challenge at Chris Johnson’s single-season record for yards from scrimmage (2,509, set in 2009).

That being said, consider this: Aaron Rodgers was embarrassed last week, and he now gets to face a middling defense at home. Pick: Packers -5

Chiefs at Titans, 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Off | Total: Off

Patrick Mahomes, who sustained a dislocated kneecap in Week 7, will start for the Chiefs (6-3). Matt Moore had a terrific run as a fill-in, but there’s no question that Kansas City’s prospects improve dramatically with the reigning winner of the N.F.L.’s Most Valuable Player Award under center. The Titans (4-5) have improved offensively since Ryan Tannehill took over as quarterback, and their defense makes you work for every yard. With Mahomes back, this is an easy call. Pick: Chiefs

Rams at Steelers, 4:25 p.m., Fox

Line: Rams -3.5 | Total: 44

It’s impossible to know how good the Los Angeles Rams (5-3) are. They opened the season 3-0, then dropped three straight, the same pattern as the Cowboys. That they won their last two games ahead of their bye week was nice, but it’s hard to put too much stock in wins over Atlanta and Cincinnati, which have one win between them. Playing the Steelers (4-4) is the closest thing to a real test Los Angeles has had in close to a month. Pittsburgh has generated an impressive 22 turnovers this season, and while the Steelers are not explosive on offense, they tend to get the job done, which makes them an odd fit as an underdog at home. Pick: Steelers +3.5

How Important Are This Week’s Games?

Ravens at Bengals, 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Ravens -10 | Total: 44

The Ravens (6-2) beat the previously 8-0 Patriots in Week 9 and will try to keep their concentration up this week when they face the 0-8 Bengals. The contrast is extreme, and while Baltimore found plenty of running room against New England, it’s almost scary to think how much could be available against Cincinnati. Sure, opponents have run to chew up the clock against the Bengals, but that is not the only contributor to their league-worst 177.6 rushing yards per game allowance. The Ravens’ offense has averaged an N.F.L.-best 204.9.

It’s a mismatch made in fantasy football heaven, and even with the wild card of how Cincinnati’s offense will differ with Ryan Finley replacing Andy Dalton at quarterback, it still has the makings of a blowout. Pick: Ravens -10

Falcons at Saints, 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Saints -13 | Total: 51.5

Teddy Bridgewater helped keep the Saints (7-1) in first place in the N.F.C. South while Drew Brees recovered from surgery on his thumb, but the team did not score at its normal rate — through eight games, it is 15th in the N.F.L. in points per game (24.4). That ranking could improve in a hurry. Over the next four weeks, the Saints face Atlanta (31.2 points allowed a game), Tampa Bay (31.5), Carolina (25.5) and then Atlanta again. Scoring 30 or more points in a win at home should be easy enough for New Orleans, but with Matt Ryan expected to be back for the Falcons (1-7), this game could be more of a shootout than a blowout. Pick: Falcons +13

Bills at Browns, 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Browns -2.5 | Total: 40

The Bills (6-2) have been thoroughly outplayed only once this season (a Week 8 loss to Philadelphia). In the other games, Buffalo’s defense put on a show and its offense found a way to survive. The Browns (2-6), meanwhile, seem to find new dysfunction weekly. Their losing streak, which began in October, was understandable considering the opponents (San Francisco, Seattle, New England), but turned ugly when Brandon Allen and the lowly Broncos stretched it to four games. Cleveland has a ton of talent, but it does not appear that quarterback Baker Mayfield knows what to do with it. Pick: Bills +2.5

Cardinals at Buccaneers, 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Buccaneers -4 | Total: 52

Over the last five weeks, the Cardinals (3-5-1) have established that they can beat bad teams (wins over Cincinnati, Atlanta and the Giants) and lose to good ones (New Orleans, San Francisco). The Buccaneers (2-6) are an interesting challenge as they are nowhere near as bad as the teams Arizona beat, but nowhere near as good as the teams that beat Arizona. Linebacker Shaquil Barrett and Tampa Bay’s defense can put a lot of pressure on Arizona’s Kyler Murray, but his Cardinals counterpoint, Chandler Jones, could play an even larger role, rattling Jameis Winston into the game-changing turnovers that the Buccaneers quarterback is famous for. Pick: Cardinals +4

Dolphins at Colts, 4:05 p.m., CBS

Line: Colts -10.5 | Total: 44

You might think Las Vegas would ease up on the Dolphins (1-7) after they secured their first win of the season, but oddsmakers have instead made them double-digit underdogs to the Colts (5-3), even though there is ambiguity as to whether Indianapolis will have its starting quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, or if Brian Hoyer will have to start in his place. The Colts are a much better team than Miami, and should absolutely be expected to win, but the uncertainty of their quarterback situation makes a close game more likely. Pick: Dolphins +10.5

Lions at Bears, 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Bears -2.5 | Total: 42

The Bears (3-5) have been reeling during their four-game losing streak. Mitchell Trubisky even asked for the televisions in the team’s practice facility to be turned off so he didn’t have to hear the criticism. A home game against the Lions (3-4-1) could be a huge morale boost, as Detroit allows an average of 424.1 yards of offense a game, which is 31st of 32 teams. But should Chicago fail to make something work with Trubisky or David Montgomery against a defense that porous, then the TV criticism would appear to have a point. Pick: Lions +2.5

Giants at Jets, 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Giants -2.5 | Total: 43.5

The Jets (1-7) muscled their way into a discussion of the N.F.L.’s worst teams with a loss to Miami last week, while the Giants (2-7) are merely bad. That this game will be played up into some sort of event is mostly a factor of the teams’ proximity to New York City. Pick: Giants -2.5

Monday’s Matchup

Seahawks at 49ers, 8:15 p.m., ESPN

Line: 49ers -6 | Total: 46.5

The 49ers (8-0) were running away with another huge win last week, right up until the fourth quarter when Arizona reeled off 11 consecutive points. San Francisco still won, but considering how dominant the team has been on both sides of the ball this season, that the Niners struggled at all was noteworthy. This week, the 49ers face the Seahawks (7-2), an N.F.C. West division rival that may not have the defense it once did, but has so much offense that it has hardly seemed to matter. Richard Sherman is thriving in the secondary of the 49ers, which should come up repeatedly during this game.

It has been a dream season for Seattle’s Russell Wilson, who is leading the N.F.L.’s starters in touchdown passes, passer rating, touchdown percentage and interception percentage. San Francisco is by far the best defense he has faced, and Sherman will most likely be fired up to beat the team that thought he was washed up. Pick: 49ers -6

Thursday’s Matchup

While agreeing with Jon Gruden that Thursday games tend to be sloppy messes, we picked Chargers -1. The game was as ugly as expected, with Philip Rivers throwing three interceptions — and having two others wiped away by penalties — while the Raiders committed a season-high 12 penalties for 97 yards. But Gruden’s views on Thursday games likely improved somewhat when Josh Jacobs, Oakland’s sensational rookie running back, sliced through the Chargers’ defense for a go-ahead 18-yard touchdown run in the final two minutes of a 26-24 victory.

How Betting Lines Work

A quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Rams -3.5, for example, means that Los Angeles must beat the Steelers by at least four points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.

Bye weeks: Denver, New England, Philadelphia, Washington, Jacksonville, Houston.

All times are Eastern.

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We Still Don’t Know Which NFL Teams Are Any Good

gfoster (Geoff Foster, sports editor): Week 15 in the NFL is almost over, and we are here to discuss the key takeaways from the weekend and how the playoff picture is shaping up. Most broadly, a pair of playoff-bound teams that looked shaky a week ago (Patriots and Rams) continued to look off their game, while a couple of teams that were gaining steam (Cowboys and Seahawks) cooled off. Add it all up and the league’s hierarchy is still murky.

Let’s start with the reigning champions Eagles. They start the quarterback who won them the Super Bowl last February, Nick Foles, and look what happens: They look like the team that won the Super Bowl. What do you make of this?

neil (Neil Paine, senior sports writer): Obviously Foles >>>> Carson Wentz.

(Heh.)

I do think the Eagles had underachieved to this point and were better than their record indicated. I didn’t expect the Eagles to go into L.A. with Foles and knock off the Rams, though.

sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, assistant sports editor): With the Cowboys losing, the Eagles have a shot, right?

neil: The Eagles’ playoff odds are up to 37 percent, Sara — so there’s a shot. But it’s going to be an interesting game vs. Houston, to say the least.

Salfino (Michael Salfino, contributor): I wonder if it’s the Eagles or whether it’s that for three games now, teams have seemed to figure out how to play the Rams. You rarely see a good team thwarted three straight weeks. I’m shocked that they have not been able to respond to Aaron Donald being double-teamed (duh!) and defenses pretty much ignoring play-action and playing softer zones.

neil: That’s a great point. We were worried about the Rams last week. And now this happens. Has the shine come off Sean McVay and friends?

Salfino: I would have bet a lot of money that the Rams would just roll it up on the undermanned Eagles defense, and instead they really struggled. Jared Goff was pressured almost as badly as against the Bears.

gfoster: Goff also may not be a good quarterback. (Pretty sure I said this last week.) That’s seven interceptions in three weeks, after being picked off just six times in 11 games. He can’t seem to adjust or make plays with the pressure in his face.

Turns out “Jeff Fisher Goff” wasn’t an illusion.

Salfino: As for the Eagles, the two losses against Dallas and the tiebreakers seems lethal in the division, but that wild card is very much in play.

You wonder if the Vikings have figured out a winning formula by turning their $84 million QB into a game manager.

sara.ziegler: “The Vikings have figured out a winning formula” is not a thing.

That will never be a thing.

gfoster: The Vikings are back.

sara.ziegler: Stop.

neil: It does seem like it’s going to come down to Minnesota and Philly — with maybe some of that changing based on what Carolina does tonight.

(I guess Washington also won with Josh Johnson on Sunday.)

Salfino: The Vikings passed 34 percent of the time Sunday, when they were 66 percent pass previously. And even in the first half, if you want to throw out the game total because of the blowout, the Vikings were only 42 percent pass. Mike Zimmer has put the team into the DeLorean. This is not 2018 football. But maybe it’s their best chance since Kirk Cousins seemed so mechanical and was playing so inefficiently.

sara.ziegler: You could see the effect of the new play-calling almost immediately for the Vikings. Through Week 14, they had rushed on first down only 41 percent of the time. On Sunday, that was up to 79 percent.

Salfino: Dalvin Cook is really good, but the strength of the team is the wide receivers. While running could work against the Dolphins, who are 26th in yards allowed per rush, can it work against better competition?

neil: The Vikings are fascinating to me. They had the single worst loss of the season and have generally underachieved relative to expectations. I want to write about this, but Cousins has basically matched most of Case Keenum’s output from last year — and Keenum’s Denver performance is making them look smart for moving on anyway — and the receivers (Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs) are more productive than ever. But their offense is somehow down according to holistic metrics such as SRS. Yet they still probably will make the playoffs — and could be a tough out for somebody.

gfoster: Where is Thielen though? He was the best receiver in football for the first half of the season, and now he’s a glorified Quincy Enunwa out there.

sara.ziegler: Maybe whatever Bill Belichick yelled at Thielen in Foxboro has really stuck with him.

Salfino: I would not want to play the Vikings if Cousins is hot like in a few games this year — think of the game at Los Angeles. Their defense can be tough, too. They’re first in sack rate. But I feel better about playing them if they insist on playing small ball.

gfoster: Thielen only received two targets yesterday, but part of that was game flow.

Salfino: Thielen’s problem yesterday is that when your passing volume gets cut in half, you’re going to suffer. But only two targets (he caught both) is just terrible market share as well. He should be 25 to 30 percent of attempts, not 10 percent.

Minnesota basically has built a pass-oriented offense but now wants to run. It’s weird.

gfoster: OK, let’s talk about the Patriots. They will not win at least 12 games for the first time since 2009. That alone is absurd in a league where teams routinely go from making the playoffs to drafting in the top 5, season to season. But after the loss to Pittsburgh, it’s definitely clear these Patriots are just off, right?

sara.ziegler: Love that both of the embattled Pennsylvania teams pulled off big upsets Sunday.

Salfino: The Pittsburgh win feels like an upset, but at home against these Patriots and not-really Tom Brady? Pittsburgh seems so much better than the Patriots. New England has to grind it out now. They have no explosion unless Chris Hogan is running a route with no defender within 19 yards of him or whatever it was.

neil: For several weeks now, Brady has made some inexplicably bad red-zone decisions. Clearly it is time to intensify those “Tom is losing it” takes (only to see him turn it around in the playoffs).

sara.ziegler: Though I remain unconvinced that Pittsburgh is all that good.

Didn’t we all think Brady was going to lead that winning drive at the end of the game?

Still surprised he didn’t, tbh.

Salfino: Consecutive December losses for the first time since the Jets won the AFC East (2002).

gfoster: The late holding penalty — when they were second and five from the Pittsburgh 11 yard line — probably cost them the game.

Salfino: What do you guys think about fourth-quarter Tom? People point to the four TDs and five picks in the fourth quarter this year. But his yards per attempt is nearly 10.

Is Gronk going to retire? When you are invisible against the Steelers, who could not cover Jared Cook last week, maybe the circus has left town.

neil: Sara, you and I were Slacking during that game, and it seemed like everything was going according to our imaginary script — Steelers lead until the very end, before the Pats storm back and break their hearts. And yet…

sara.ziegler: Yeah, the Pats couldn’t quite finish that script. But why? What’s different this year?

Salfino: It’s just a lack of playmakers on the Patriots. Josh Gordon is not Josh Gordon. Gronk is not Gronk. Brady is not really Brady anymore — he’s like a top 10ish QB but no one would think he was top two or three.

gfoster: But James White and Julian Edelman are the same. Just those two alone, was enough to win a Super Bowl a couple years ago?

sara.ziegler: And Gordon certainly gave them a boost earlier in the season.

They usually can ride the hot hand, but it doesn’t seem like anyone is able to be the hot hand right now.

neil: And the Pats usually get an edge at the margins. On Sunday, they won the turnover battle but were only +1. Also went 3 for 10 on third down (3 for 11 if you wanna include that failed fourth-down conversion) and had that brutal red-zone mistake.

Salfino: Maybe 41-year-old Brady is much different from 39-year-old Brady. Plus Edelman is old for a WR and coming off a major injury. He probably isn’t the same player either. White can be mixed in but can’t be central to your offense.

It’s tough to say, but Brady was chucking and ducking yesterday.

sara.ziegler: It’s weird to me, too, how they use some weapons so sparingly.

Cordarrelle Patterson was so effective against Green Bay in Week 9. But he’s barely been heard from since.

gfoster: Let’s talk about the Chiefs’ collapse against the Chargers. Is Los Angeles (it always sounds so wrong) now the team to beat in the AFC?

neil: I love watching Philip Rivers lead a desperation drive.

I imagine it’s the same as it was watching Dan Marino in the ’90s.

My inclination is to not read too much into that result because K.C. dominated most of the game. But maybe that’s wrong.

sara.ziegler: Yeah, I think the Chiefs just took their foot off the gas.

neil: The three K.C. losses have come by a total of 7 points.

gfoster: I also love the zero hesitation on going for two to win the game. I can think of about a dozen coaches who would have been too chicken to do it.

Mainly Bill “Let’s Punt” O’Brien.

sara.ziegler: Did that play into Kansas City’s approach, too? Like, “Oh, the worst that can happen is a tie here, so we’re fine.”

Salfino: The 2-point conversion was obvious to me. Textbook. When you are a big underdog on the road, you go for the win on one play. That’s defined all the teams that have done it except one: the Panthers earlier this year.

neil: San Diego — er, L.A. — probably knew that was their best shot. On the road against that team, odds were against them if they extended the game.

Salfino: Rivers is so deadly still. Has not lost anything. They have pass rush, a running game assuming Melvin Gordon can come back, a good secondary and Philip Rivers. They are deadly. K.C. has the tiebreaker with the better divisional record.

I can’t believe the Chargers can win 13 games and be a wild-card team.

gfoster: You also can’t really blame the loss of Kareem Hunt. Damien Williams was the best player on the field.

Salfino: Williams is a generational talent though at running back.

gfoster: Not to mention Darrel Williams.

sara.ziegler: There were SO MANY Williamses on the field in that game.

neil: I can’t wait for the NFL version of that failed NBA trade where nobody knew which player with the same last name was included.

sara.ziegler: LOLOL

neil: That will happen with a “Williams” someday.

gfoster: Do the Chiefs also have to have a doppelganger for their lead running back? Remember when they had Kareem Hunt and Akeem Hunt.

It’s like the double Queen Amidala has in “The Phantom Menace.”

neil: LOL.

I can’t believe you made a “Phantom Menace” reference.

sara.ziegler: (Geoff was watching the “Star Wars” marathon this weekend too, apparently.)

gfoster: Speaking of phantom menaces (wait for it…), is it time to take Andrew Luck and the Colts seriously in the AFC?

Salfino: I’m very disappointed that the Colts may not make the playoffs. What’s their chance currently?

neil: Only 34 percent.

(Which surprises me.)

gfoster: I think they will make it. They’ve quietly won seven of eight, with the only loss being that strange no-show against Jacksonville.

neil: But it is a numbers game in the AFC.

gfoster: And they host the Giants next week, so…

sara.ziegler: And then they finish with the Titans.

neil: Gotta keep pace with Tennessee in terms of shutting out Eli Manning.

Salfino: It’s tough when you start 1-5. They have Luck, a running game now with Marlon Mack and a defense that just shut out the Cowboys. One possible explanation is that Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus came over from Jason Garrett’s 2017 staff and clearly knew Dallas well.

sara.ziegler: Oh, that’s a good point.

I always wonder how much that kind of familiarity helps in specific games.

gfoster: Before the season, people were saying the Colts defense could be the worst in the league, particularly the run defense that bottled up Ezekiel Elliott yesterday.

Salfino: The Colts are actually sixth in rushing efficiency allowed.

As for Eli, it’s kind of funny that, on the day where there’s a report that the Giants are going to have Eli back in 2019, he gets goose-egged.

neil: Eli has been teetering on that edge for weeks now. Whenever it looks like he’ll definitely lose his starting job, he plays better. Whenever it looks like he’ll keep it, he plays worse.

sara.ziegler:

From @GMFB Weekend: #Giants QB Eli Manning may be playing his way onto the roster in 2019, which seemed crazy just a few months ago. Interesting decision looming this offseason. pic.twitter.com/9hVQx2PzIO

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 16, 2018

I believe my exact words on Sunday were, “Did Ian Rapoport just doom Eli to a Peterman-like effort today?”

Salfino: Eli does just enough to keep the believers in his camp and just enough to provide fodder for the haters. He’s middling it.

The big problem yesterday for the Cowboys is that nothing was easy in the passing game. That was shocking after the explosion against the Eagles where they seemed to have turned the corner offensively.

neil: Yep. Dak Prescott followed up three straight 100+ QB rating games with … a 64.7.

gfoster: Marlon Mack’s emergence might mean they don’t break the bank to get Le’Veon Bell this offseason.

neil: Marlon Mack ran through that Cowboys defense like Boga the varactyl on Utapau.

sara.ziegler: OMG, Neil.

neil: Hahaha.

gfoster: Listen, readers, all our “Star Wars” references are strictly Episodes I-III.

neil: Are there any other episodes???

Salfino: The Bell thing is fascinating. The Jets are the top-rumored team. The Colts and Texans definitely have the money. But the Texans have other franchise-level players and Jadeveon Clowney to sign and the Colts have Mack.

gfoster: Is that a good move for the Jets?

sara.ziegler: A combo of Broadway Sam-Le’Veon Bell would be pretty fun to watch.

gfoster: The answer to “Is that a good move for the Jets?” is always no, by the way.

sara.ziegler: LOL

Salfino: The Jets have so much money that I’m coming around to it. You have to spend it someway. On paper, it’s stupid. But I like that he stopped his mileage. I know we wrote about maximizing earnings and the injury risk he would have assumed. But maybe Bell wanted to avoid the single-trial disastrous outcome (a catastrophic injury).

neil: The offseason carousel in general should be fun next year. At QB, Joe Flacco is leaving Baltimore, it was reported, with Lamar Jackson’s emergence. Eli might be out of a job (yet also available!!!). The 49ers will have two legitimate QBs with Nick Mullens being good. (I think??)

Salfino: I think Bell would provide for at least two years something really easy for Sam Darnold in the passing game.

gfoster: Darnold has been put in a position to fail. The play-calling is so conservative, the skill position players around him are so bad, he has no time.

Salfino: Darnold is not failing now. He had the in-season reset with the time off and is overcoming those handicaps, seemingly.

gfoster: They are 4-10.

That’s failing.

neil: Darnold had a 100.0 QB rating Saturday!

Salfino: Geoff, the Jets’ tank on Saturday was as elegant as a Noel Coward dinner party. Jason Myers missing the extra points was the plot twist no one saw coming.

sara.ziegler: “Elegant as a Noel Coward dinner party” is the best turn of phrase ever used about the Jets.

gfoster: Speaking of Mullens, is he a starter in this league??

Salfino: Mullens started 44 college games. And he’s in a Kyle Shanahan system. I think there are two questions with Mullens: Is he good, and does he prove that system/coaching makes the quarterback more than the tools that are traditionally scouted?

neil: Whether coaching or not, Mullens has played the best of any rookie this season:

It is true that Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen have been thrust into terrible situations.

It's also true that Nick Mullens is looking like a Pro Bowl QB in a situation that would be easy to call terrible if he wasn't playing so well. pic.twitter.com/XrUeNTqdYw

— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) December 17, 2018

But to your point, Mike, it is definitely tough to disentangle from Shanahan.

But should that change what we think of Jimmy Garoppolo as well?

gfoster: I just don’t know if a team is willing to make a trade and commit to him as a starter. This is the Brock Osweiler conundrum.

neil: Mullens has been much better than Osweiler was, for what it’s worth.

sara.ziegler: And he has the Brett Favre seal of approval.

neil: (And Osweiler was on a team that won the Super Bowl.)

Salfino: Mullens is 6-foot-1. I think people are going to look at him as a fluke. A guy like Mullens with no real pedigree (other, ironically, than NFL performance) will never have a long enough leash to make it as a starter.

gfoster: So he’s in “very good backup” land along with Ryan Fitzpatrick.

neil: I still don’t know that he’s necessarily a backup in a world where Flacco and Eli probably get additional starting shots next season.

Salfino: I think Mullens is going to be in the Dave Krieg, Tyrod Taylor, Jeff Garcia, Case Keenum, undersized, “not a real QB” camp — not the Drew Brees and Russell Wilson camp.

Also he’s not a free agent. Are you trading a second-round pick for Mullens?

neil: True. The Niners at least have time to make a decision there. They still have him under contract for 2019. Besides, I’ve long been a fan of the “strategically pump up the trade value of your backup QB” plan to team management, as my friend Doug Drinen laid out in this old post about Falcons-era Matt Schaub.

gfoster: The Browns, meanwhile, are keeping the dream alive.

Salfino: What is the Browns’ playoff probability?

They’re basically eliminated right?

sara.ziegler: They’re at a less than 1 percent chance, according to our model.

neil: The Steelers’ win kept the Browns from being mathematically eliminated.

sara.ziegler: So you’re saying there’s a chance…

neil: “The Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans would need to lose in Week 16 then tie in Week 17. It would be a three-way tie between the Colts, Titans and Browns. Cleveland would hold the tiebreaker. The Browns can also win the AFC North if the Steelers lose out, the Browns win out and the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Ravens next week.”

LOL.

sara.ziegler: I mean, that’s not the most unlikely thing to have happened in the NFL.

Salfino: Based on our prior research, it seems like Gregg Williams is 100 percent coming back? 80 percent? What number do we put on a winning interim coach with this large a sample?

I think it’s madness to hire Williams, BTW. New offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens should get the job first.

neil: It does seem like it will be very difficult to resist the urge to bring him back on the basis of their post-Hue Jackson performance.

(Even if, as we wrote about, Williams hasn’t really had very much to do with it.)

Salfino: I think the nightmare scenario for Cleveland fans and Baker Mayfield is that Williams gets the job and Kitchens gets an offer to be the head coach of the Jets.

neil: (Aside from, like, not being Hue Jackson.)

Salfino: Damien Woody asked on Saturday if the Browns had top-15 talent. I thought it was an interesting question.

gfoster: Their defense has so much talent. Denzel Ward, their awesome rookie corner, didn’t even play against Denver. Jabrill Peppers had a star-turning performance on Saturday with the INT in the end zone and the game-winning sack.

Salfino: You and “Star Wars” and Michigan, Geoff…..

gfoster: What, is that where Peppers went?

I don’t remember.

neil: Hah.

Salfino: Ha ha ha.

neil: All I know is that Browns have now won two more games this season than the previous three combined. For this franchise, that is something special, playoffs or not.

sara.ziegler: Maybe the Browns’ chaos is behind them.

(Or maybe not.)

neil: I doubt it. But hey, if the Rebels could hold off the First Order at the resistance outpost on Crait, anything is possible.

sara.ziegler: OMG

gfoster: The Broncos, meanwhile, are gross. Vance Joseph needs to go. That was really timid coaching.

Salfino: Joseph is all the bad things about a defensive-minded head coach.

gfoster: Let’s end with our Week 15 Super Bowl predictions. I’m not changing mine from last week. Saints vs. Chargers. It helps that the Saints play tonight.

Salfino: Saints — but man am I worried about their offense even though their defense now is underrated — and … Steelers. I think they beat the Chargers in the wild-card round, and you know the Chiefs are dying to lose their first playoff game. Thursday night was a preview.

sara.ziegler: I’m starting to come around on the Bears, which is not a thing I thought I would say this season.

neil: Wow, especially as a Vikings fan.

sara.ziegler: SERIOUSLY

I hate myself right now.

So … Bears-Chiefs.

neil: I’m sticking with Saints-Chiefs. Mainly because of how entertaining that game would be. Something has to compensate for a halftime show consisting of Maroon 5 + random people found busking at subway stations.

sara.ziegler: Hahahahaha

Check out our latest NFL predictions.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-still-dont-know-which-nfl-teams-are-any-good/

[flauntpage]

Meet Your 2020 NBA Champions, the Minnesota Timberwolves

For our 2017-18 NBA Season Preview, we're doing deep dives on five teams who can beat the Warriors in the next five years—and the players who can push them over the top.

The play that morphed Karl-Anthony Towns from a highly impressive rookie into a flashpoint in the progression of NBA history, inspiring visions of the recaptured transcendance of the big man, came not in a poster dunk, or game-winning shot. In fact, on that night in April, 2016, he put up a relatively average (for him) 20 points and 10 rebounds, as the lottery-bound Minnesota Timberwolves handed the historically great, 73-win Golden State Warriors their ninth loss and final of the season.

The moment that dazzled NBA junkies—and offered a glimpse that perhaps the Warriors were indeed fallible—came on defense. Late in the fourth quarter Towns switched onto Steph Curry, stayed in front of a swarm of crossovers, and contained his drive. It was all of Towns' defensive potential wrapped into a single high stakes play.

The Timberwolves are not your everyday up-and-coming NBA franchise. In fact, they are one of the few teams to have not been rendered inconsequential by the Warriors juggernaut. That's because they have on their roster the rare player who, under the right circumstances, is capable of knocking down a dynasty. It might not happen now. It might take two or three seasons. But Karl-Anthony Towns is that player.

In the NBA's annual GM survey, Towns was chosen as the "player that GM's would sign first, if starting a franchise today." He is a threat on all levels, with silky low-post moves, and a soft touch that extends beyond the arc. For a young big man, he can dish it with the best of them. The Warriors, who have an answer for everything, do not have an answer for him.

For a long time, the Timberwolves have operated with high potential and low expectations. That is no longer the case. There is Towns. There is Andrew Wiggins. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is entering his second season. Three-time All Star Jimmy Butler is on board. "If you're waiting on potential, you're waiting on losing," Thibodeau recently told USA Today's Sam Amick. "We can't wait on potential any longer."

Thibodeau and Butler were kindred spirits in Chicago. When Thibodeau was fired, Butler bristled at his new coach Fred Hoiberg's easygoing manner, and didn't hesitate to share his opinions with the media. He doesn't suffer fools, and he is intolerant of anyone who fails to meet his lofty standards. Thibodeau, a notorious grinder, meets them. He conducts legendarily tough practices and his players are always ranked famously high in league-wide minutes totals. Into this dynamic steps Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns spent his rookie year learning from Kevin Garnett, the snarling no-nonsense Hall-of-Famer who showed him the difference between working hard and working harder than everybody else. Under Thibodeau, Towns and Butler ought to coalesce into some sort of hard-nosed transcendent basketball force.

The Warriors aren't your run-of-the-mill championship team. They are on a deliberate, uninterrupted march towards perfection, with an ethos, after multiple championship runs, of self-improvement for its own sake. Any team that wishes to unseat them must, aside from having the talent to match up, be institutionally sound enough to knock them off their path.

With a core of Thibodeau, Butler and Towns, who possess an insatiable, incorruptible, drive to improve, the Wolves have the potential to be that team.

"We want the same things." Photo: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

But there's a rub: Towns didn't actually make a defensive leap in his sophomore season. In fact, he may even have regressed. In the absence of Garnett, he struggled to man the paint when he was the lone big man on the court. Thibodeau's system registered as a foreign language to most of the team, leaving Towns with a larger mess to clean up.

(Towns ranked 61st out of 61 centers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus—one spot behind Jahlil Okafor—and Minnesota's defensive rating was at its best when he sat and its worst when he played.)

Cramming a big old platter of schemes and scouting reports tends to make young players inherently bad at defense. "He's a great shot blocker," says Tayshaun Prince, who played alongside Towns in his rookie year. "But a lot of times, he would be out of position. Just his basketball knowledge, basketball IQ means he can still block shots, be a big rebounder."

The Timberwolves were the second-best rebounding team in the NBA last year. In two preseason games against the Warriors, Towns ate Zaza Pachulia's lunch down low, a development made more significant by the fact that Towns is one of the only big men who can punish the Warriors when they sub out their traditional big for Green and employ the vaunted Death Lineup. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year is a mismatch nightmare for most big men, running them off the court on one end and possessing the requisite strength to outmuscle them defensively in the paint. With Towns, that isn't the case, and Green can't sag off to wreak help-side havoc, a key staple of Golden State's defense at its best.

While he has yet to harness the sum of his abilities on the defensive end, he has the tools to be a nightmare for the Warriors —a 7-footer who could hold his own down low against Draymond Green and have the quickness to switch onto Steph Curry.

More experience, more determination, and more time in Thibodeau's vaunted system, could eventually morph Towns into the defensive player everyone envisioned during his rookie year. If that happens, there will be elements to his games that no team will be able to handle. He will be a force on defense. And on offense, the Timberwolves success will simply be a matter of taking advantage when opposing defenses—Golden State's and otherwise—bend to Towns' will.

At the eight-minute mark in the first quarter of Minnesota's first preseason game of two against the Warriors, Butler faces up against Klay Thompson. He drives, but Thompson forces him to kick the ball to Jeff Teague, so he sets a pick. The Warriors switch, leaving Curry on Butler, who dives towards the paint. Teague charges into traffic and shovels the ball to Taj Gibson, who misses from deep.

But with the smaller Curry on him, Butler is able to tip the rebound over to Towns, who pitches it right. Butler pump-fakes, angling for a lay-up, and Green crashes toward the rim, leaving Towns wide open. Butler hits the most talented teammate he's ever had, then watches him evade Green's contest with a pump fake right before he nails the triple. It was the Wolves at their platonic ideal, utilizing every advantage they have over the Warriors.

When the future is bright. Photo: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports.

The difference between the version of the Wolves that can and can't take down the Warriors is the divide between who they are, and who, fully realized, they could be. Their success, if we are to glean anything from the preseason, will rest on discipline. No more errant shots (looking at you, Wiggins). If Butler wants to roam into passing lanes on defense, he sure as hell better not do it when he's guarding Curry. If Thompson gets caught on a switch against Towns, Minnesota's hammer needs to touch the ball. When Towns, a savvy passer, is doubled, his teammates must ensure that there's an easy angle for him to find the open man. If you get a second chance opportunity, don't just chuck up the first reasonable shot to come your way. It's not house money—offensive rebounds can be, if utilized correctly, a necessary and potent weapon to weaken the Dubs. It will be, to say the least, difficult.

Maybe that's why the best way to give the Warriors trouble is to employ as many dynamic players as possible. One-dimensional players are too easily neutralized by the Golden State defense—which is what makes Teague, a crafty creator with a knack for sneaking into the paint, such a compelling fit. There is, as always, the risk of too many cooks. Then again, the Warriors employ Curry, Durant, and Green, and they seem to be doing fine.

To put it another way: the Warriors excel at neutralizing their opponent's strength. If you don't have your main skill, what can you do? And how quickly can you do it?

"[Towns] has the talent and he has all the attributes," says Prince. "It's obviously a big task for any player to take down the Warriors so to speak but I know KAT is a determined guy, and obviously Thibs is a determined coach."

In the end, it is hard to trust any team to maximize its abilities and become the best version of itself. There is a reason, after all, why the Warriors are the Warriors, and why, on the other hand, I—err, a friend of mine—recently put processed cheese and deli meat into a bagel and microwaved it.

But the Wolves aren't your average franchise, and their core is, even for the NBA, unusually driven. If there's one thing we've learned about Thibs, Butler, and Towns, it's that they're determined to reap every opportunity for what it's worth. Their success will be predicated on building a culture where every player has that instinct. It will be predicated on Towns becoming the history-altering player everybody saw switch out onto Steph Curry that night in 2016. It may take time. Even a few years. But the Timberwolves are young enough, and talented enough, that when it happens, they will be able to take down anybody.

Meet Your 2020 NBA Champions, the Minnesota Timberwolves published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

[amtushinfosolutionspage]

Meet Your 2020 NBA Champions, the Minnesota Timberwolves

For our 2017-18 NBA Season Preview, we’re doing deep dives on five teams who can beat the Warriors in the next five years—and the players who can push them over the top.

The play that morphed Karl-Anthony Towns from a highly impressive rookie into a flashpoint in the progression of NBA history, inspiring visions of the recaptured transcendance of the big man, came not in a poster dunk, or game-winning shot. In fact, on that night in April, 2016, he put up a relatively average (for him) 20 points and 10 rebounds, as the lottery-bound Minnesota Timberwolves handed the historically great, 73-win Golden State Warriors their ninth loss and final of the season.

The moment that dazzled NBA junkies—and offered a glimpse that perhaps the Warriors were indeed fallible—came on defense. Late in the fourth quarter Towns switched onto Steph Curry, stayed in front of a swarm of crossovers, and contained his drive. It was all of Towns’ defensive potential wrapped into a single high stakes play.

The Timberwolves are not your everyday up-and-coming NBA franchise. In fact, they are one of the few teams to have not been rendered inconsequential by the Warriors juggernaut. That’s because they have on their roster the rare player who, under the right circumstances, is capable of knocking down a dynasty. It might not happen now. It might take two or three seasons. But Karl-Anthony Towns is that player.

In the NBA’s annual GM survey, Towns was chosen as the “player that GM’s would sign first, if starting a franchise today.” He is a threat on all levels, with silky low-post moves, and a soft touch that extends beyond the arc. For a young big man, he can dish it with the best of them. The Warriors, who have an answer for everything, do not have an answer for him.

For a long time, the Timberwolves have operated with high potential and low expectations. That is no longer the case. There is Towns. There is Andrew Wiggins. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is entering his second season. Three-time All Star Jimmy Butler is on board.

“If you’re waiting on potential, you’re waiting on losing,” Thibodeau recently told USA Today’s Sam Amick. “We can’t wait on potential any longer.”

Thibodeau and Butler were kindred spirits in Chicago. When Thibodeau was fired, Butler bristled at his new coach Fred Hoiberg’s easygoing manner, and didn’t hesitate to share his opinions with the media. He doesn’t suffer fools, and he is intolerant of anyone who fails to meet his lofty standards. Thibodeau, a notorious grinder, meets them. He conducts legendarily tough practices and his players are always ranked famously high in league-wide minutes totals. Into this dynamic steps Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns spent his rookie year learning from Kevin Garnett, the snarling no-nonsense Hall-of-Famer who showed him the difference between working hard and working harder than everybody else. Under Thibodeau, Towns and Butler ought to coalesce into some sort of hard-nosed transcendent basketball force.

The Warriors aren’t your run-of-the-mill championship team. They are on a deliberate, uninterrupted march towards perfection, with an ethos, after multiple championship runs, of self-improvement for its own sake. Any team that wishes to unseat them must, aside from having the talent to match up, be institutionally sound enough to knock them off their path.

With a core of Thibodeau, Butler and Towns, who possess an insatiable, incorruptible, drive to improve, the Wolves have the potential to be that team.

“We want the same things.” Photo: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

But there’s a rub: Towns didn’t actually make a defensive leap in his sophomore season. In fact, he may even have regressed. In the absence of Garnett, he struggled to man the paint when he was the lone big man on the court. Thibodeau’s system registered as a foreign language to most of the team, leaving Towns with a larger mess to clean up.

(Towns ranked 61st out of 61 centers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus—one spot behind Jahlil Okafor—and Minnesota’s defensive rating was at its best when he sat and its worst when he played.)

Cramming a big old platter of schemes and scouting reports tends to make young players inherently bad at defense. “He’s a great shot blocker,” says Tayshaun Prince, who played alongside Towns in his rookie year. “But a lot of times, he would be out of position. Just his basketball knowledge, basketball IQ means he can still block shots, be a big rebounder.”

The Timberwolves were the second-best rebounding team in the NBA last year. In two preseason games against the Warriors, Towns ate Zaza Pachulia’s lunch down low, a development made more significant by the fact that Towns is one of the only big men who can punish the Warriors when they sub out their traditional big for Green and employ the vaunted Death Lineup. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year is a mismatch nightmare for most big men, running them off the court on one end and possessing the requisite strength to outmuscle them defensively in the paint. With Towns, that isn’t the case, and Green can’t sag off to wreak help-side havoc, a key staple of Golden State’s defense at its best.

While he has yet to harness the sum of his abilities on the defensive end, he has the tools to be a nightmare for the Warriors —a 7-footer who could hold his own down low against Draymond Green and have the quickness to switch onto Steph Curry.

More experience, more determination, and more time in Thibodeau’s vaunted system, could eventually morph Towns into the defensive player everyone envisioned during his rookie year. If that happens, there will be elements to his games that no team will be able to handle. He will be a force on defense. And on offense, the Timberwolves success will simply be a matter of taking advantage when opposing defenses—Golden State’s and otherwise—bend to Towns’ will.

At the eight-minute mark in the first quarter of Minnesota’s first preseason game of two against the Warriors, Butler faces up against Klay Thompson. He drives, but Thompson forces him to kick the ball to Jeff Teague, so he sets a pick. The Warriors switch, leaving Curry on Butler, who dives towards the paint. Teague charges into traffic and shovels the ball to Taj Gibson, who misses from deep.

But with the smaller Curry on him, Butler is able to tip the rebound over to Towns, who pitches it right. Butler pump-fakes, angling for a lay-up, and Green crashes toward the rim, leaving Towns wide open. Butler hits the most talented teammate he’s ever had, then watches him evade Green’s contest with a pump fake right before he nails the triple. It was the Wolves at their platonic ideal, utilizing every advantage they have over the Warriors.

When the future is bright. Photo: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports.

The difference between the version of the Wolves that can and can’t take down the Warriors is the divide between who they are, and who, fully realized, they could be. Their success, if we are to glean anything from the preseason, will rest on discipline. No more errant shots (looking at you, Wiggins). If Butler wants to roam into passing lanes on defense, he sure as hell better not do it when he’s guarding Curry. If Thompson gets caught on a switch against Towns, Minnesota’s hammer needs to touch the ball. When Towns, a savvy passer, is doubled, his teammates must ensure that there’s an easy angle for him to find the open man. If you get a second chance opportunity, don’t just chuck up the first reasonable shot to come your way. It’s not house money—offensive rebounds can be, if utilized correctly, a necessary and potent weapon to weaken the Dubs. It will be, to say the least, difficult.

Maybe that’s why the best way to give the Warriors trouble is to employ as many dynamic players as possible. One-dimensional players are too easily neutralized by the Golden State defense—which is what makes Teague, a crafty creator with a knack for sneaking into the paint, such a compelling fit. There is, as always, the risk of too many cooks. Then again, the Warriors employ Curry, Durant, and Green, and they seem to be doing fine.

To put it another way: the Warriors excel at neutralizing their opponent’s strength. If you don’t have your main skill, what can you do? And how quickly can you do it?

“[Towns] has the talent and he has all the attributes,” says Prince. “It’s obviously a big task for any player to take down the Warriors so to speak but I know KAT is a determined guy, and obviously Thibs is a determined coach.”

In the end, it is hard to trust any team to maximize its abilities and become the best version of itself. There is a reason, after all, why the Warriors are the Warriors, and why, on the other hand, I—err, a friend of mine—recently put processed cheese and deli meat into a bagel and microwaved it.

But the Wolves aren’t your average franchise, and their core is, even for the NBA, unusually driven. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about Thibs, Butler, and Towns, it’s that they’re determined to reap every opportunity for what it’s worth. Their success will be predicated on building a culture where every player has that instinct. It will be predicated on Towns becoming the history-altering player everybody saw switch out onto Steph Curry that night in 2016. It may take time. Even a few years. But the Timberwolves are young enough, and talented enough, that when it happens, they will be able to take down anybody.

Meet Your 2020 NBA Champions, the Minnesota Timberwolves syndicated from http://ift.tt/2ug2Ns6

[junker-town]

5 young NFL players who deserve a much higher ‘Madden’ rating

EA’s Madden NFL 20

Which player ratings did EA get the most wrong this year?

The NFL preseason is almost here, which means it’s Madden season. The annual release of the league’s omnipresent video game consort is a welcome respite for gridiron fanatics sick of parsing through training camp reports.

The game is more than just an exercise in theoretical football, however. It’s also a treatise on which athletes belong in the league’s elite.

Electronic Arts released its annual player ratings in advance of Madden NFL 20’s release, creating a tidal wave of free publicity as fans and pundits alike debated their rubric. Four stars — Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, Bobby Wagner, and DeAndre Hopkins — earned coveted 99 overall ratings that maxed out their impact on the field. Others slipped and climbed through the ranks like a poorly staged game of Snakes and Ladders.

Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes saw his rating rise to a 97, but that still left him struggling to crack EA’s top 10. Richard Sherman is 31 and is coming off his first season without an interception after a good, not great, year in San Francisco. Despite that, his Madden number increased from 90 to 93. Aaron Rodgers suffered through a similarly low-key season on a non-playoff team but slipped from a 99 rating a year ago to a 90, making him the game’s seventh-best quarterback.

But the players who got the worst of it were those who have only been in the NFL for, at most, a few seasons. Ahead of Madden 20’s Aug. 2 release, we picked five young players who deserve more credit — and a higher rating — this year.

Mitchell Trubisky probably deserves more respect

There are plenty of questionable ratings among EA’s cadre of quarterbacks this summer. Mahomes had one of the greatest seasons the league’s ever seen, yet didn’t get included among the league’s tippy-top tier. Jared Goff played at an MVP level through much of the 2018 season and is entering just his fourth season in the league, but his player rating stood pat at an 83.

Meanwhile, the Giants had to deal with even more roasting of their top pick from the 2019 NFL Draft.

oh no Giants pic.twitter.com/zbyn1RsGkv

— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) July 15, 2019

But somewhere in the midst of all this confusion was Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The second overall pick of the 2017 draft made major strides last season, posting gains in nearly every statistical category and emerging as a valuable dual-threat presence. More importantly, he led Chicago to an NFC North title and an 11-3 record in the games he started.

Despite all this, he’s only rated a 75 — one point higher than his 2018 standard and tied for 26th among quarterbacks. For comparison’s sake, let’s take a look to how he stacks up against 79-rated Marcus Mariota, excluding the growing pains of each’s rookie season:

Madden is telling us it has no faith in Trubisky’s 2018 leap. That could hold up — but he certainly didn’t look like a bottom-tier starting quarterback when he helped lead the Bears to the top of their division. — Christian D’Andrea

It’s time to give Kevin Byard his due

The Tennessee Titans are an easy team to forget about, and that’s meant anonymity for players on their roster. The best example is 2016 third-round pick Kevin Byard, one of the best safeties in the NFL.

Hall of Fame cornerback Deion Sanders didn’t even know who Byard was last year, calling him “a fan” on Twitter.

You're looking at who writers tell u who's the best I know who players and former players feel is the best. I rest my case. You continue to be a fan and i will continue being the man. #Truth https://t.co/gnpwJHjxEK

— Deion Sanders (@DeionSanders) March 20, 2018

If Byard’s not the best safety in the league, he’s certainly close. He had the fourth-highest grade on Pro Football Focus among starters at the position in 2018, and he’s the NFL leader in interceptions over the past two seasons.

But he couldn’t even get a rating in the 90s on Madden 20.

Earl Thomas (95), Harrison Smith (94), Malcolm Jenkins (92), Eddie Jackson (91), and Jamal Adams (90) are all ahead of Byard, who came in at 89. He had the same 89 rating in Madden 19, immediately after his All-Pro season.

Byard is a top-five safety even if his Madden grade doesn’t reflect that. — Adam Stites

A healthy Kwon Alexander should lead to a nice bump

Kwon Alexander is a dominant linebacker. The problem is that he has a bit of an injury history and only played in six games last season. It’s easy to see why he’d be rated low in Madden as a result, but I feel like his rating is too low.

Alexander is one of the most athletic linebackers in the game, and when healthy, he’s all over the field making big tackles. Tackling machines are the guys who often get overlooked because they’re not putting up “sexy” stats like touchdowns, sacks, or interceptions.

Despite his injuries, Alexander has still produced. In 46 career games, the 24-year-old has 380 tackles, seven sacks, six forced fumbles, six interceptions and a touchdown, in addition to 22 passes defensed.

In this year’s Madden, he’s rated a 78, which isn’t terrible, but he has the stats to back up a higher rating. He should be up into the 80s for sure. I’d like to see him get a boost to speed, awareness, and his pursuit traits. — James Brady

Honestly, just make Derwin James 99 at this point

Derwin James is already a superstar. He’s already a top safety in the NFL. It’s honestly stupid how good he is, and every team that didn’t draft him has to be furious. There are almost no flaws in his game. He’s all over the field.

After one season in the league, he entered the NFL Top 100 at No. 31, a huge honor.

"Smart, fast and physical." @DerwinJames made offenses PAY his rookie year (via @NFLFilms + @NFLNetwork) #NFLTop100 pic.twitter.com/kNvLZhYz0J

— NFL (@NFL) July 30, 2019

James finished his rookie season with 105 tackles, 3.5 sacks, three interceptions, 13 passes defensed, and the respect of everybody he came into contact with. He’s worth every bit of the 17th overall pick the Chargers spent on him, and EA should stop with this “86 overall” nonsense. Make him 90 at least, or just skip the preamble and bump him all the way to 99, OK? — James Brady

James Conner isn’t as average as Madden says he is

The Steelers were supposed to be screwed when Le’Veon Bell held out for the entire 2018 season. Instead, the offense didn’t miss a beat.

In Conner’s first full season as Pittsburgh’s starting running back, he had 13 total touchdowns, 973 rushing yards, and 497 receiving yards. His 4.5 yards per carry topped the 4.0 yards Bell averaged during his All-Pro 2017 season.

So the argument could be made that Conner deserves a higher rating than Bell. He didn’t even come close, though.

Bell, who sat out 2018, is at 92 overall, behind only Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott. Buried under 21 running backs is Conner at 83 overall.

HUH???

Dion Lewis, who averaged 3.3 yards per carry in his first season with the Titans, is ahead of Conner. So are Dalvin Cook, Lamar Miller, and Sony Michel.

There was a reason Conner was the starting running back for the AFC in the Pro Bowl. Why does Madden seem to think he’s not even top 20 at his position? — Adam Stites

[junker-town]

The 2012 NFL Draft didn’t make much sense, and now it’s happening again

The Browns targeting RB/QB help? The Patriots, fresh off a Super Bowl loss, with two picks? This is familiar.

The 2012 NFL Draft played a major impact in 2017. It gave us the reigning Super Bowl MVP and the league’s highest-paid player — and neither was a first-round pick. It turned the Patriots’ defense from one of the NFL’s worst into a championship unit. It also continued the Browns’ vicious cycle of failure, as Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden proved not to be the saviors Cleveland had hoped.

That 2012 draft was weird and awesome ... and it might happen all over again in 2018.

A deep crop of quarterbacks could make the seventh or eighth passer selected a tremendously valuable asset. The Patriots, after trading away Brandin Cooks, are looking to fill major holes in their AFC Championship roster with two late first-round picks. And the Browns, with two of the top four selections in this year’s draft, could be looking at adding a quarterback and high-profile running back as they hit “reset” once more.

Here’s how the 2012 NFL Draft could wind up being the blueprint for the 2018 version.

The Browns “Browns up” another draft

Then: It’s not original or especially fun to recount Cleveland’s NFL failures, but it’s a vital part of the 2012 NFL Draft. The Browns had two picks with which to work that spring after shipping the right to select Julio Jones with the No. 6 pick in 2011 for a smattering of selections — the most successful of whom turned out to be Greg Little. In exchange, they earned the chance to select Weeden as their new franchise QB, one year after trading away a pick that would become All-Pro linebacker Justin Houston.

In 2012, the Browns used the No. 3 pick to draft Alabama back Trent Richardson. Then 19 picks later, they drafted 28-year-old Oklahoma State passer Brandon Weeden in hopes of bolstering an offense that started Colt McCoy and Seneca Wallace behind center the previous season. Together, they’d win five total games for Cleveland. Neither would be on the team’s roster for the 2014 season.

The Browns made nine more picks behind them, of which only three played in the NFL in 2017. The best was right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, who has excelled as a blocker the past two seasons — for the Kansas City Chiefs.

And Richardson? The Alabama back’s biggest contribution to the team was the fact he secured a 2014 first-rounder from the Colts in a trade. In true Browns fashion, the club packaged that pick with a third-rounder for the chance to move up and draft ... Johnny Manziel.

Now: SB Nation’s mock draft database shows the Browns will likely go with a quarterback and a running back in the first round again. The consensus among pundits is USC quarterback Sam Darnold with the No. 1 overall pick and Penn State running back Saquon Barkley with the No. 4, a pair of selections that would fill one major need (at quarterback) and add arguably the draft’s top prospect three picks later.

Why do they need a running back and quarterback just six years later? Because Weeden is barely hanging on to his spot in the league as a 34-year-old backup and Richardson’s football future maxes out in whatever non-NFL pro league begins first — the XFL or the Alliance of American Football.

A repeat of 2012 would be, as usual, bad news for the Browns and worse news for Barkley, a tantalizing prospect out of Penn State (yet, like all running backs this year, not a sure thing). If it does, he and whichever passer winds up at No. 1 overall — likely Darnold, Josh Rosen, or Josh Allen — would see their NFL careers top out at “underwhelming.” Among the top five quarterbacks, Allen is the one who carries the biggest risk, so naturally that’s how the Browns have been trending.

Injuries (and Weeden) wrecked an entire class of first-round quarterbacks

Then: Andrew Luck was an easy choice at No. 1 overall, narrowly edging out Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III at the top of the draft. Luck immediately turned the Colts from the league’s worst team into a playoff contender; Griffin became a sensation while earning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors that season. Both looked like slam dunks as 2012 came to a close.

The rest of the first round wasn’t as successful. Ryan Tannehill was thrown into the fire with the Dolphins and finished his first season with a 12:13 TD:INT ratio in 16 starts. Weeden looked every bit a Browns quarterback while going 5-10 as a starter and throwing 17 interceptions. It was a mixed bag for 2012’s high-profile quarterbacks, but Luck and Griffin looked like franchise cornerstones worthy of their lofty draft status.

Now: Neither Luck nor Griffin played a snap in 2017. A bum shoulder has prevented the No. 1 pick from returning to form after leading the Colts to the AFC title game in 2014, putting his future in doubt after starting his career with three straight Pro Bowl appearances. The Colts have collapsed without him — though their plunge is inexorably tied to Ryan Grigson’s mismanagement as general manager.

Griffin has fallen even further. The electric quarterback led Washington to a surprising playoff appearance as a rookie, but his team’s weak offensive line and RGIII’s high-risk, dual-threat game were too dangerous a combination to be sustainable. Knee and ankle injuries, along with a 2015 concussion, spelled the end of his tenure in the nation’s capital, and his star had dimmed so much he was reduced to signing a one-year deal to compete for the Browns’ starting quarterback position. To his credit, he was the starter for the team’s only win in 2016. He sat out last season before signing a one-year contract to back up Joe Flacco with the Ravens in 2018.

Tannehill developed into a league-average passer and led the Dolphins to a surprising playoff appearance in 2016, but his own knee problems appear to have maxed out his career arc at “not bad.” Weeden, as previously mentioned, is not very good at football. Brock Osweiler was the next passer up at the end of the second round, and while he’s still employed in the NFL, his best attribute as a passer appears to be his height.

That’s a cautionary tale for needy teams looking to draft their franchise quarterback in the top five of this year’s draft. In 2012, the quarterbacks in the highest tier were crushed by injuries (and four of the top five picks failed to play a single snap in 2017). The second tier was as well. The third tier was Weeden and Osweiler.

The draft is an unpredictable beast.

But later rounds gave the draft its most successful quarterback — and its most expensive

Then: After Osweiler came a revival from unexpected sources. The Seahawks gambled on a failed minor league second baseman who had led Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl after being shunned by NC State. Russell Wilson was supposed to be a project for Seattle, but he outplayed pricey free agent pickup Matt Flynn to help spark a four-win improvement from the previous season. Next was Nick Foles, who didn’t look special in his six starts as a rookie. The eighth quarterback taken was Kirk Cousins, a fourth-round insurance policy should Griffin fail to come through for Washington.

Now: Wilson is a Super Bowl-winning quarterback who hasn’t missed a start in six seasons for the Seahawks. By virtue of Pro Football Reference’s approximate value metric, he’s been the most valuable player from the 2012 draft by a long shot — and nearly twice as impactful as any other quarterback from his class.

Foles set an NFL record with a 27:2 TD:INT ratio in his second year with the Eagles, flamed out as a starter, came back as a backup, and then won Super Bowl MVP honors by dethroning the Patriots in Super Bowl 52. He’s currently the Eagles’ backup quarterback behind Carson Wentz, but that situation will likely change if someone’s starter gets hurt in the preseason and Philadelphia deals him for a valuable draft pick.

Cousins emerged as a cannon-armed dropback passer who could rack up big numbers even if a limited Washington roster meant languishing in the no-zone between rebuilding and contention the past three seasons. He earned nearly $44 million the past two seasons while playing on his team’s franchise tag, then reset the quarterback market with a fully guaranteed, three-year $84 million deal this offseason with the Minnesota Vikings.

That’s a good omen for 2018’s overlooked college quarterbacks. A repeat of 2012 would mean big things for college standouts like Washington State’s Luke Falk, Western Kentucky’s Mike White, and Richmond’s Kyle Lauletta. All three are potential Day 3 pickups who could have a big impact in the NFL.

The Patriots don’t trade down ... and nail their two first-round picks

Then: The 2011 Pats fell in Super Bowl XLVI to the Giants, but a couple of shrewd trades left them in prime position to reload with fresh young talent. A trade in the previous year’s draft landed New England the Saints’ No. 27 pick to pair with its own No. 31 pick. Instead of trading down for the second-round selections Bill Belichick covets, the future Hall of Famer instead opted to move up and boost a defense that ranked 31st in the league in yardage allowed the year prior.

A deal with the Bengals allowed the Patriots to select Chandler Jones with the 21st selection of the draft. A trade with the Broncos shortly afterward brought Dont’a Hightower to Foxborough with the 25th. Both were starters the following fall.

Now: The plan worked. The duo combined to give New England a dangerous pass rusher and a versatile tackling machine to pace its second level. Together, they helped revive an overworked defense, steadily improving as the Patriots developed into a top 10 unit by 2015 — the last season the Jones and Hightower shared under Belichick.

History repeating itself would be great news for the Patriots, who like in 2012, are coming off a Super Bowl loss but loaded with draft capital. If it does, they won’t just get two starters with their top picks, but a pair of Pro Bowlers. After getting little production from their four-man class of 2017 — their first two selections, Derek Rivers and Antonio Garcia, both missed their entire rookie seasons due to health issues — 2018 could be the bridge that connects the team’s dynastic run through the Tom Brady era to a successful future.

[flauntpage]

Meet Your 2020 NBA Champions, the Minnesota Timberwolves

For our 2017-18 NBA Season Preview, we're doing deep dives on five teams who can beat the Warriors in the next five years—and the players who can push them over the top.

The play that morphed Karl-Anthony Towns from a highly impressive rookie into a flashpoint in the progression of NBA history, inspiring visions of the recaptured transcendance of the big man, came not in a poster dunk, or game-winning shot. In fact, on that night in April, 2016, he put up a relatively average (for him) 20 points and 10 rebounds, as the lottery-bound Minnesota Timberwolves handed the historically great, 73-win Golden State Warriors their ninth loss and final of the season.

The moment that dazzled NBA junkies—and offered a glimpse that perhaps the Warriors were indeed fallible—came on defense. Late in the fourth quarter Towns switched onto Steph Curry, stayed in front of a swarm of crossovers, and contained his drive. It was all of Towns' defensive potential wrapped into a single high stakes play.

The Timberwolves are not your everyday up-and-coming NBA franchise. In fact, they are one of the few teams to have not been rendered inconsequential by the Warriors juggernaut. That's because they have on their roster the rare player who, under the right circumstances, is capable of knocking down a dynasty. It might not happen now. It might take two or three seasons. But Karl-Anthony Towns is that player.

In the NBA's annual GM survey, Towns was chosen as the "player that GM's would sign first, if starting a franchise today." He is a threat on all levels, with silky low-post moves, and a soft touch that extends beyond the arc. For a young big man, he can dish it with the best of them. The Warriors, who have an answer for everything, do not have an answer for him.

For a long time, the Timberwolves have operated with high potential and low expectations. That is no longer the case. There is Towns. There is Andrew Wiggins. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is entering his second season. Three-time All Star Jimmy Butler is on board. "If you're waiting on potential, you're waiting on losing," Thibodeau recently told USA Today's Sam Amick. "We can't wait on potential any longer."

Thibodeau and Butler were kindred spirits in Chicago. When Thibodeau was fired, Butler bristled at his new coach Fred Hoiberg's easygoing manner, and didn't hesitate to share his opinions with the media. He doesn't suffer fools, and he is intolerant of anyone who fails to meet his lofty standards. Thibodeau, a notorious grinder, meets them. He conducts legendarily tough practices and his players are always ranked famously high in league-wide minutes totals. Into this dynamic steps Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns spent his rookie year learning from Kevin Garnett, the snarling no-nonsense Hall-of-Famer who showed him the difference between working hard and working harder than everybody else. Under Thibodeau, Towns and Butler ought to coalesce into some sort of hard-nosed transcendent basketball force.

The Warriors aren't your run-of-the-mill championship team. They are on a deliberate, uninterrupted march towards perfection, with an ethos, after multiple championship runs, of self-improvement for its own sake. Any team that wishes to unseat them must, aside from having the talent to match up, be institutionally sound enough to knock them off their path.

With a core of Thibodeau, Butler and Towns, who possess an insatiable, incorruptible, drive to improve, the Wolves have the potential to be that team.

"We want the same things." Photo: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

But there's a rub: Towns didn't actually make a defensive leap in his sophomore season. In fact, he may even have regressed. In the absence of Garnett, he struggled to man the paint when he was the lone big man on the court. Thibodeau's system registered as a foreign language to most of the team, leaving Towns with a larger mess to clean up.

(Towns ranked 61st out of 61 centers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus—one spot behind Jahlil Okafor—and Minnesota's defensive rating was at its best when he sat and its worst when he played.)

Cramming a big old platter of schemes and scouting reports tends to make young players inherently bad at defense. "He's a great shot blocker," says Tayshaun Prince, who played alongside Towns in his rookie year. "But a lot of times, he would be out of position. Just his basketball knowledge, basketball IQ means he can still block shots, be a big rebounder."

The Timberwolves were the second-best rebounding team in the NBA last year. In two preseason games against the Warriors, Towns ate Zaza Pachulia's lunch down low, a development made more significant by the fact that Towns is one of the only big men who can punish the Warriors when they sub out their traditional big for Green and employ the vaunted Death Lineup. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year is a mismatch nightmare for most big men, running them off the court on one end and possessing the requisite strength to outmuscle them defensively in the paint. With Towns, that isn't the case, and Green can't sag off to wreak help-side havoc, a key staple of Golden State's defense at its best.

While he has yet to harness the sum of his abilities on the defensive end, he has the tools to be a nightmare for the Warriors —a 7-footer who could hold his own down low against Draymond Green and have the quickness to switch onto Steph Curry.

More experience, more determination, and more time in Thibodeau's vaunted system, could eventually morph Towns into the defensive player everyone envisioned during his rookie year. If that happens, there will be elements to his games that no team will be able to handle. He will be a force on defense. And on offense, the Timberwolves success will simply be a matter of taking advantage when opposing defenses—Golden State's and otherwise—bend to Towns' will.

At the eight-minute mark in the first quarter of Minnesota's first preseason game of two against the Warriors, Butler faces up against Klay Thompson. He drives, but Thompson forces him to kick the ball to Jeff Teague, so he sets a pick. The Warriors switch, leaving Curry on Butler, who dives towards the paint. Teague charges into traffic and shovels the ball to Taj Gibson, who misses from deep.

But with the smaller Curry on him, Butler is able to tip the rebound over to Towns, who pitches it right. Butler pump-fakes, angling for a lay-up, and Green crashes toward the rim, leaving Towns wide open. Butler hits the most talented teammate he's ever had, then watches him evade Green's contest with a pump fake right before he nails the triple. It was the Wolves at their platonic ideal, utilizing every advantage they have over the Warriors.

When the future is bright. Photo: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports.

The difference between the version of the Wolves that can and can't take down the Warriors is the divide between who they are, and who, fully realized, they could be. Their success, if we are to glean anything from the preseason, will rest on discipline. No more errant shots (looking at you, Wiggins). If Butler wants to roam into passing lanes on defense, he sure as hell better not do it when he's guarding Curry. If Thompson gets caught on a switch against Towns, Minnesota's hammer needs to touch the ball. When Towns, a savvy passer, is doubled, his teammates must ensure that there's an easy angle for him to find the open man. If you get a second chance opportunity, don't just chuck up the first reasonable shot to come your way. It's not house money—offensive rebounds can be, if utilized correctly, a necessary and potent weapon to weaken the Dubs. It will be, to say the least, difficult.

Maybe that's why the best way to give the Warriors trouble is to employ as many dynamic players as possible. One-dimensional players are too easily neutralized by the Golden State defense—which is what makes Teague, a crafty creator with a knack for sneaking into the paint, such a compelling fit. There is, as always, the risk of too many cooks. Then again, the Warriors employ Curry, Durant, and Green, and they seem to be doing fine.

To put it another way: the Warriors excel at neutralizing their opponent's strength. If you don't have your main skill, what can you do? And how quickly can you do it?

"[Towns] has the talent and he has all the attributes," says Prince. "It's obviously a big task for any player to take down the Warriors so to speak but I know KAT is a determined guy, and obviously Thibs is a determined coach."

In the end, it is hard to trust any team to maximize its abilities and become the best version of itself. There is a reason, after all, why the Warriors are the Warriors, and why, on the other hand, I—err, a friend of mine—recently put processed cheese and deli meat into a bagel and microwaved it.

But the Wolves aren't your average franchise, and their core is, even for the NBA, unusually driven. If there's one thing we've learned about Thibs, Butler, and Towns, it's that they're determined to reap every opportunity for what it's worth. Their success will be predicated on building a culture where every player has that instinct. It will be predicated on Towns becoming the history-altering player everybody saw switch out onto Steph Curry that night in 2016. It may take time. Even a few years. But the Timberwolves are young enough, and talented enough, that when it happens, they will be able to take down anybody.

Meet Your 2020 NBA Champions, the Minnesota Timberwolves published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

[flauntpage]

Meet Your 2020 NBA Champions, the Minnesota Timberwolves

For our 2017-18 NBA Season Preview, we're doing deep dives on five teams who can beat the Warriors in the next five years—and the players who can push them over the top.

The play that morphed Karl-Anthony Towns from a highly impressive rookie into a flashpoint in the progression of NBA history, inspiring visions of the recaptured transcendance of the big man, came not in a poster dunk, or game-winning shot. In fact, on that night in April, 2016, he put up a relatively average (for him) 20 points and 10 rebounds, as the lottery-bound Minnesota Timberwolves handed the historically great, 73-win Golden State Warriors their ninth loss and final of the season.

The moment that dazzled NBA junkies—and offered a glimpse that perhaps the Warriors were indeed fallible—came on defense. Late in the fourth quarter Towns switched onto Steph Curry, stayed in front of a swarm of crossovers, and contained his drive. It was all of Towns' defensive potential wrapped into a single high stakes play.

The Timberwolves are not your everyday up-and-coming NBA franchise. In fact, they are one of the few teams to have not been rendered inconsequential by the Warriors juggernaut. That's because they have on their roster the rare player who, under the right circumstances, is capable of knocking down a dynasty. It might not happen now. It might take two or three seasons. But Karl-Anthony Towns is that player.

In the NBA's annual GM survey, Towns was chosen as the "player that GM's would sign first, if starting a franchise today." He is a threat on all levels, with silky low-post moves, and a soft touch that extends beyond the arc. For a young big man, he can dish it with the best of them. The Warriors, who have an answer for everything, do not have an answer for him.

For a long time, the Timberwolves have operated with high potential and low expectations. That is no longer the case. There is Towns. There is Andrew Wiggins. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is entering his second season. Three-time All Star Jimmy Butler is on board. "If you're waiting on potential, you're waiting on losing," Thibodeau recently told USA Today's Sam Amick. "We can't wait on potential any longer."

Thibodeau and Butler were kindred spirits in Chicago. When Thibodeau was fired, Butler bristled at his new coach Fred Hoiberg's easygoing manner, and didn't hesitate to share his opinions with the media. He doesn't suffer fools, and he is intolerant of anyone who fails to meet his lofty standards. Thibodeau, a notorious grinder, meets them. He conducts legendarily tough practices and his players are always ranked famously high in league-wide minutes totals. Into this dynamic steps Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns spent his rookie year learning from Kevin Garnett, the snarling no-nonsense Hall-of-Famer who showed him the difference between working hard and working harder than everybody else. Under Thibodeau, Towns and Butler ought to coalesce into some sort of hard-nosed transcendent basketball force.

The Warriors aren't your run-of-the-mill championship team. They are on a deliberate, uninterrupted march towards perfection, with an ethos, after multiple championship runs, of self-improvement for its own sake. Any team that wishes to unseat them must, aside from having the talent to match up, be institutionally sound enough to knock them off their path.

With a core of Thibodeau, Butler and Towns, who possess an insatiable, incorruptible, drive to improve, the Wolves have the potential to be that team.

"We want the same things." Photo: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

But there's a rub: Towns didn't actually make a defensive leap in his sophomore season. In fact, he may even have regressed. In the absence of Garnett, he struggled to man the paint when he was the lone big man on the court. Thibodeau's system registered as a foreign language to most of the team, leaving Towns with a larger mess to clean up.

(Towns ranked 61st out of 61 centers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus—one spot behind Jahlil Okafor—and Minnesota's defensive rating was at its best when he sat and its worst when he played.)

Cramming a big old platter of schemes and scouting reports tends to make young players inherently bad at defense. "He's a great shot blocker," says Tayshaun Prince, who played alongside Towns in his rookie year. "But a lot of times, he would be out of position. Just his basketball knowledge, basketball IQ means he can still block shots, be a big rebounder."

The Timberwolves were the second-best rebounding team in the NBA last year. In two preseason games against the Warriors, Towns ate Zaza Pachulia's lunch down low, a development made more significant by the fact that Towns is one of the only big men who can punish the Warriors when they sub out their traditional big for Green and employ the vaunted Death Lineup. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year is a mismatch nightmare for most big men, running them off the court on one end and possessing the requisite strength to outmuscle them defensively in the paint. With Towns, that isn't the case, and Green can't sag off to wreak help-side havoc, a key staple of Golden State's defense at its best.

While he has yet to harness the sum of his abilities on the defensive end, he has the tools to be a nightmare for the Warriors —a 7-footer who could hold his own down low against Draymond Green and have the quickness to switch onto Steph Curry.

More experience, more determination, and more time in Thibodeau's vaunted system, could eventually morph Towns into the defensive player everyone envisioned during his rookie year. If that happens, there will be elements to his games that no team will be able to handle. He will be a force on defense. And on offense, the Timberwolves success will simply be a matter of taking advantage when opposing defenses—Golden State's and otherwise—bend to Towns' will.

At the eight-minute mark in the first quarter of Minnesota's first preseason game of two against the Warriors, Butler faces up against Klay Thompson. He drives, but Thompson forces him to kick the ball to Jeff Teague, so he sets a pick. The Warriors switch, leaving Curry on Butler, who dives towards the paint. Teague charges into traffic and shovels the ball to Taj Gibson, who misses from deep.

But with the smaller Curry on him, Butler is able to tip the rebound over to Towns, who pitches it right. Butler pump-fakes, angling for a lay-up, and Green crashes toward the rim, leaving Towns wide open. Butler hits the most talented teammate he's ever had, then watches him evade Green's contest with a pump fake right before he nails the triple. It was the Wolves at their platonic ideal, utilizing every advantage they have over the Warriors.

When the future is bright. Photo: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports.

The difference between the version of the Wolves that can and can't take down the Warriors is the divide between who they are, and who, fully realized, they could be. Their success, if we are to glean anything from the preseason, will rest on discipline. No more errant shots (looking at you, Wiggins). If Butler wants to roam into passing lanes on defense, he sure as hell better not do it when he's guarding Curry. If Thompson gets caught on a switch against Towns, Minnesota's hammer needs to touch the ball. When Towns, a savvy passer, is doubled, his teammates must ensure that there's an easy angle for him to find the open man. If you get a second chance opportunity, don't just chuck up the first reasonable shot to come your way. It's not house money—offensive rebounds can be, if utilized correctly, a necessary and potent weapon to weaken the Dubs. It will be, to say the least, difficult.

Maybe that's why the best way to give the Warriors trouble is to employ as many dynamic players as possible. One-dimensional players are too easily neutralized by the Golden State defense—which is what makes Teague, a crafty creator with a knack for sneaking into the paint, such a compelling fit. There is, as always, the risk of too many cooks. Then again, the Warriors employ Curry, Durant, and Green, and they seem to be doing fine.

To put it another way: the Warriors excel at neutralizing their opponent's strength. If you don't have your main skill, what can you do? And how quickly can you do it?

"[Towns] has the talent and he has all the attributes," says Prince. "It's obviously a big task for any player to take down the Warriors so to speak but I know KAT is a determined guy, and obviously Thibs is a determined coach."

In the end, it is hard to trust any team to maximize its abilities and become the best version of itself. There is a reason, after all, why the Warriors are the Warriors, and why, on the other hand, I—err, a friend of mine—recently put processed cheese and deli meat into a bagel and microwaved it.

But the Wolves aren't your average franchise, and their core is, even for the NBA, unusually driven. If there's one thing we've learned about Thibs, Butler, and Towns, it's that they're determined to reap every opportunity for what it's worth. Their success will be predicated on building a culture where every player has that instinct. It will be predicated on Towns becoming the history-altering player everybody saw switch out onto Steph Curry that night in 2016. It may take time. Even a few years. But the Timberwolves are young enough, and talented enough, that when it happens, they will be able to take down anybody.

Meet Your 2020 NBA Champions, the Minnesota Timberwolves published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

[junker-town]

Patriots vs. Saints 2017 live stream: Start time, TV channel, and how to watch online

Brandin Cooks returns home as New England tries to put its opening night defeat in the rear view.

The Patriots’ quest to defend their Super Bowl 51 title took a major detour last Thursday. New England gave up 21 fourth quarter points to fall to the Chiefs at home, but an opportunity to right the ship comes Sunday afternoon. The Patriots will travel to New Orleans to face the Saints at 1 p.m. ET, broadcast live on CBS (live stream).

Tom Brady looked like a 40-year-old quarterback to start his season on a low note. The reigning Super Bowl MVP completed just 16 of his 36 passes and failed to find the end zone. While he still managed to throw for 267 yards, he looked leagues different than he had the last time we saw him in a meaningful game. He’ll have a tremendous opportunity to get back on track Sunday against a Saints secondary that allowed more passing yards per game than all but one team last fall.

Time, TV channel, and streaming info

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Location: Superdome, New Orleans

TV: CBS

Streaming: CBS All Access

Odds: New England is favored by 4 points.

Patriots at Saints news:

How did the Chiefs overcome a slow start to beat the Patriots? It all started in the secondary.

For much of the night, the Chiefs instead opted to drop several players into coverage and force Brady to find an open receiver. According to Pro Football Focus, Brady had an average of 2.94 seconds to pass — more than half of a second longer than his usual 2.3-2.4 seconds.

But thanks to the play of Berry and Peters, there weren’t many options. Of the passes when Brady had more than 2.6 seconds to throw, he completed just 5 of 19 attempts.

For three confusing days, the Patriots were the NFL’s worst team.

New England is winless and the worst team in the NFL, for now. Sure, it’s temporary, but most NFL fans can and should savor this moment. Hell, here’s a meme of Brady being mad on the bench for you to delight in.

Surprisingly, rookie Alvin Kamara was the Saints most-used running back against the Vikings.

The Saints’ non-existent defense will be a problem against a Patriots team with plenty to prove.

Where was Sterling Moore in this game? Where was Ken Crawley? Where was De’Vante Harris? Someone told me that Harris at least suited up for the Saints and started this game, but I watched this game, and couldn’t find him anywhere near the ball.

Here are the teams who can copy the Chiefs’ blueprint for beating the Patriots. The Saints aren’t on the list.

That’s a stud player on the defensive line, one at linebacker, and two in the secondary. Houston was able to generate pressure, Johnson was able to cover the running back out of the backfield and crowd the middle of the field, Peters erased Chris Hogan the entire game, and Berry shadowed Rob Gronkowski to great success.

The Patriots need a short-yardage wizard

The Patriots allowed bruising tailback LeGarrette Blount to leave as a free agent this spring, opting to replace the burly runner’s 18 touchdowns with a platoon of players that includes 2017 singees Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead. While Gillislee was proficient in finding the end zone, the team struggled in key short-yardage situations. New England came up empty on each of its fourth-and-one gambles, ending scoring drives and ultimately leading to failure in the team’s opener.

Patriots at Saints prediction:

We have an interesting disagreement on our hands: Eight of our human experts took the Patriots to win this game in their Week 2 NFL picks. However, OddsShark’s computer disagreed, saying the Saints will win.