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jodyedgarus · 5 years

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Byron Buxton Is Teasing Twins Fans Again

The Minnesota Twins were one of the best stories of the 2017 MLB season: Coming off a 59-win campaign in 2016, they won 85 games and made the playoffs seemingly out of nowhere. Minnesota even spotted itself an early three-run lead against the Yankees in the American League wild-card game (before promptly giving it away in the bottom of the first and ultimately losing). With one of baseball’s youngest lineups, this seemed like a team on the rise, and its best all-around player — 23-year-old center fielder Byron Buxton — had a lot to do with that, putting together a breakout season of his own.

By the same token, when Buxton faltered in 2018, so did the Twins. In an injury-plagued lost season, Buxton managed just 94 plate appearances and graded as below replacement level, according to whichever metric you choose to consult. Minnesota, in turn, dipped from 85 wins to 78 and wasn’t really in the playoff picture after the All-Star break. Buxton wasn’t the only Twin to suffer a miserable 2018 decline,1 but it is fair to say his absence played as big a role in Minnesota’s downfall as anything else.

This spring, Buxton and the Twins are looking to recapture the spirit of 2017 — and the early returns are encouraging. Last week, the former No. 1 prospect in all of baseball hit what was already his fourth home run of spring training:

It’s been part of a tear that has Buxton looking like the best hitter in baseball during the spring so far. Although spring training results are easy to scoff at, they aren’t completely devoid of meaning — and that’s something the Twins will hang on to if it means there’s a chance Buxton rebounds and helps them close the gap in the AL Central.

According to my research from a few years ago, massive spring outlier performances do carry some predictive value going forward. It just takes a lot of improvement to signal real breakout potential: You need a weighted on-base average (wOBA) in the spring 17 points above projected — using the simple-yet-effective Marcel projection system — just to predict a 1-point increase in wOBA (relative to projection) during the regular season. So for most players, they’ll never hit well enough in the spring to move the needle of their season expectations very much either way.

But Buxton is hitting so well that it might actually be a much-needed sign of hope for his performance this season. When we compare players’ spring wOBA with their preseason Marcel projections, no player2 has exceeded expectations more than the Twins’ center fielder:

Buxton is tearing it up this spring

MLB players by difference in weighted on-base average (wOBA) between 2019 preseason Marcel projections and spring training performance

wOBA Player Team Age Games PA SPRING Projected Diff Byron Buxton MIN 25 11 30 .579 .297 +.282 Peter Bourjos LAA 31 12 32 .548 .285 .262 Jose Pirela SD 29 15 31 .562 .303 .258 Chance Sisco BAL 24 10 29 .560 .304 .256 Cristhian Adames CHC 27 15 36 .533 .286 .247 Lewis Brinson MIA 24 13 34 .517 .274 .243 Brandon Lowe TB 24 10 32 .560 .321 .240 Francisco Mejia SD 23 11 31 .541 .309 .232 Domingo Santana SEA 26 10 28 .575 .344 .231 Greg Allen CLE 26 10 28 .532 .302 .230

Minimum 25 spring plate appearances for players who have already made their regular-season MLB debuts. Stats are through Friday, March 15.

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

That 282-point difference in wOBA would imply a 17-point increase over projected during the regular season, good for a .314 mark when applied to Buxton’s on-base projection. That’s essentially the same wOBA Buxton had during his breakout 2017 campaign — a number that still wasn’t quite league average but was good enough to combine with his stellar defense to make him worth 4.3 wins above replacement (WAR),3 as opposed to the -0.4 number he produced last season. And for a Twins team that we currently project to win 84 games with a 37 percent chance of making the playoffs, even incremental improvements from a key player like Buxton could pay massive dividends in terms of postseason odds. My former colleague Rob Arthur estimated that, in the era of two wild cards, an 86-win team would generally increase its playoff probability by about 10 to 15 percentage points over an 84-win one. (The mid-80s win range is basically the steepest area for adding playoff odds with an extra win.)

Now, to pump the brakes a little on Buxton’s spring: 30 plate appearances is a very small sample, and most of them have come against sub-AAA quality pitchers, according to Baseball-Reference.com’s estimation. Buxton currently has a batting average on balls in play of .368, much higher than his regular-season career average of .320. His biggest action items as a hitter — plate patience and strike-zone judgment — have shown some signs of life this spring, but he’ll have to sustain them all season to convince skeptics that his skills have truly improved. And Minnesota can only hope those spring homers are merely a sign that Buxton will be an average power hitter again (like in 2017) rather than the guy who didn’t hit a single home run in 90 MLB at-bats last season.4

It really does just comes down to health and hitting for Buxton — defensively, on a per-inning basis, he was just as great last year as in 2017; he was also the fastest player in baseball. If Buxton can recapture a version of his 2017 production at the plate, it would be very good for the Twins in their quest to return to the American League Division Series for the first time since 2010. Minnesota added some impact free agents over the offseason (Marwin Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz, Blake Parker), while the division-favorite Cleveland Indians spent the winter shopping around their stars and generally resting on their laurels. Maybe the Twins are still longshots to truly knock the Indians off of their three-year perch as AL Central champs, but a healthy, star-caliber 2019 season from Buxton would make that task a lot easier.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/byron-buxton-is-teasing-twins-fans-again/

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topbeautifulwomens · 5 years

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#Scottie #Pippen #Biography #Photos #Wallpapers #awesome #black #contours #eyelashes #fashiondesigner #mac #magazine #pled #sexymodels #vegas

Considered one of the top basketball players of all time, point forward Scottie Pippen made news both on and off the court throughout his decades-long career as a professional athlete. Beginning in 1987 with the Chicago Bulls, Pippen has gone on to demonstrate his multiple talents in shooting, passing, blocking, and rebounding, as well as in defense strategy, and has become known even among non-basketball fans for his performance as part of the U.S. basketball “Dream Team” that took the gold at the Olympic Games in Barcelona, Spain, and Atlanta, Georgia.

Contributing to his reputation as one of the greatest forwards in professional basketball was Pippen’s talent for complementing Bulls teammate Michael Jordan while Jordan rose to superstardom during the 1990s. Over-shadowed by Jordan throughout his tenure with the Bulls, Pippen also exhibited a sometimes erratic performance, moodiness, and a trouble-tinged personal life, all of which made his role as a top player somewhat controversial. His career was characterized by some as a balancing act between moments of athletic genius and spats of uncooperativeness and immaturity. However, in the broad view the balance falls on the plus side, at least in the opinion of the National Basketball Association (NBA) which voted the 6’8″, 228-pound Pippen among the fifty top basketball players of all time in 1996.

Born in 1965 in Hamburg, Arkansas, Pippen was one of twelve children born to Preston and Ethel Pippen. Growing up in a rural hometown, the six Pippen brothers spent much of their time playing basketball, their family dogged by poverty after Preston, a paper mill worker suffered a debilitating stroke the year Pippen entered high school. Although he enjoyed basketball, Pippen’s unremarkable statureâ€”he did not attain his entire height of 6’8″ until he reached collegeâ€”did little to hint at his future career. As a student, math was his favorite subject due to its practicality; basketball was simply recreation until his sophomore year, when he joined the school team and doubled as the football team equipment manager. As a high school senior the 6’1″, 150-pound Pippen played starting point guard, but was unable to attract the attention of college scouts or scholarship monies. Convinced that basketball would provide the young man perhaps his only chance at furthering his education, Pippen’s high school coach located a work-study arrangement at the University of Central Arkansas whereby Pippen could continue to play point guard and be team manager. Pippen enrolled at Central Arkansas in 1983, intending to major in industrial education and find a job as a factory manager.

Fortunately, Pippen began to gain some height following high school graduation, and by September he was 6’3″. During his sophomore year he started a weight-training program, gained another two inches, and watched his game noticeably improve. Impressed, his coach had Pippen play not only forward but other positions as well. Viewed as the team’s best all-around player during his last year at Central Arkansas, Pippen now averaged 23.6 points, 10 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. While his impressive performance at Central Arkansas registered slightly with Chicago Bulls general manager Jerry Krause, Pippen’s equally impressive performance at a college all-star event in Portsmouth, Virginia transfixed Krause, who made a deal whereby Pippen was the number-five draft choice of the Seattle SuperSonics in late 1986 and immediately traded to the Chicago Bulls with a six-year contract worth over $5 million.

During the 1987-88 season the Bulls were led by coach Doug Collins and player Michael Jordan, who dominated Collins’s starting lineup. As backup point forward Pippen averaged 7.9 points per game before becoming sidelined by a herniated disk that essential back surgery. Missing the 1988-89 preseason as well as the first eight games that followed, he advanced to the starting lineup in late December by averaging 14.4 points per game. During the Eastern Conference playoffs Chicago downed their first two rivals before facing the Detroit Pistons. Suffering a concussion at the start of game six against Detroit, Pippen was forced from play and could only watch as the Bulls were downed in a hard-fought match.

The appointment of Phil Jackson to the Bulls’ head coach spot at the start of the 1989-90 season was a boon for Pippen. Jackson’s three-point offensive strategy allowed him greater freedom on the court. Scoring an average of 16.5 points per game, Pippen located himself on the NBA All-Star team for the first time. “He handles the ball well enough to be virtually a third guard,” explained Sports Illustrated contributor Leigh Montville of Pippen, “dribbling up the floor in the Bulls offense. He is a point forward, â€¦ the modern all-purpose basketball partâ€¦. Guard him high, and he will take youlow. Guard him low, and he will take you high. Don’t guard him for a moment? He is gone, rising over the basket and depositing the ball with a house-call efficiency that makes you remember Dr. Julius Erving himself.” Eerily echoing the previous year’s playoffs, the Bulls again faced Detroit, and fans again saw Pippen play poorly before being pulled from Game 7, this time due to migraine headaches. Chicago’s 74-93 loss was put squarely on Pippen’s shoulders by many fans, many of whom did not realize that the point forward was also mourning the recent death of his father, who had passed away during the playoffs.

Pippen returned for the Bulls’ 1990-91 season a more focused player. After a heated contract dispute he ended the season with a guaranteed annual salary of $3.5 million through 1997-98. Pippen’s efforts on the court justified the increase as he led the Bulls to a sweep of the conference championship series against the Pistons by scoring 17.8 points per game, 595 rebounds, 511 assists, and 193 steals. The Bulls went on to beat the Los Angeles Lakers in the world championship.

Pippen’s stats during the 1991-92 season earned him a spot on both the 1992 All-Star game and the U.S. Olympic “Dream Team” alongside Jordan, Magic Johnson, and Larry Bird. He also continued to lead his team in assists. Ironically, considering these honors, in a playoff game against the New York Knicks his sprained ankle and injured wrist cost the team points and sparked renewed grumblings among Bulls fans. This time, however, the Bulls were victorious, and Pippen entered the final games of the playoffs in top form, then traveled to Barcelona, Spain to help the Dream Team take the 1992 gold medal.

The 1992-93 season found Pippen at the top of his game; he spearheaded a drive to the top of the Eastern Conference by beating the Knicks in the playoffs 4-0 and helped the Bulls become the first team to win three consecutive league titles since 1966. At the close of the season teammate Jordan announced that he was retiring to begin a second career in baseball, and Pippen filled the void by taking on a more active role on the court.

During the 1993-94 season an ankle injury kept Pippen out of the first ten games before he returned to improve the Bulls’ standings with an average of 22 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. He bagged NBA Most Valuable Player honors in the All-Star game by posting 29 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 steals before his now-characteristic fall from grace during the May, 1994 playoffs. During the final, crucial 1.8 seconds of the Bulls’ third game against the Knicks, Pippen refused to return to the game after a time-out. Angered that teammate Toni Kukoc had been awarded both a lucrative contract and the final shot of the game, Pippen stubbornly sat out the final seconds, during which Kukoc’s shot saved the game for the Bulls. Despite his subsequent apologies, Pippen found this action would haunt him as fans blamed him for the Bulls’ ultimate loss of the series to New York.

Pippen’s dissatisfaction with his team flooded over into his private life, and his name began to seem on more than just the sports pages during the 1993-94 season. In January 1994 he was arrested for possession of a firearm, although the charges were later dropped after the basketball star intimated allegations of racism on the part of the arresting officers. Subsequent reports revealed a domestic abuse charge by then-fiancee Yvette Deleone and a paternity suit by model Sonya Roby that cited Pippen as the father of her daughter, a surviving twin, and cost the athlete $10,000 despite his denial of the charge.

Although Pippen illustrated his continuing frustration with the 1994-95 season by throwing a chair onto the court in response to a call by officials during a game in January 1995, he finally gave Bulls fans something to cheer about the following February when he joined a returning Jordan and the recently acquired former Piston Dennis Rodman to propel the team to fifty wins in their first fifty-six games. Pippen managed to keep his legal problems off the court during the remainder of the 1995-96 season and averaged over nineteen points per game. Named to the All-NBA First Team for the third year in a row, he also walked away with a gold medal for his role in the 1996 U.S. basketball Olympic team. Bulls teammates Jordan, Pippen, and Rodman also became the first trio of teammates in thirteen years to make the NBA’s All-Defensive Team.

The 1996-97 season, marking the end of Pippen’s contract with the Bulls, was highlighted by his inclusion as one of the NBA’s fifty greatest players. Taking gain of his on- and off-court fame, the savvy athlete supplemented his annual salary of $2.25 million with $7 million from product endorsements and appearances on television programs such as ER and Chicago Sons. Pippen’s biggest endorsement, with shoe manufacturer Nike, earned him between $2.5 to $3.5 million. The athlete’s name recognition only improved when he led the Bulls to their fifth world championship, averaging 19.2 points and 6.8 rebounds in nineteen playoff games despite being hobbled with an injury to his left foot.

At the start of Pippen’s tenth pro season, 1997-98, the thirty-two year old was sidelined for three months while recovering from foot surgery while rumors of his planned departure from the Bulls began to circulate. Undergoing more back surgery in July to repair two herniated disks, Pippen then accepted a deal whereby he was traded to the Houston Rockets after signing a five-year contract with the Bulls worth $67.2 million. Pippen ended his Bulls career with per-game averages of 18 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists.

During his first season with the Rockets, Pippen clearly welcomed the change in team affiliation. Joining fellow player Charles Barkley on the starting lineup, he adopted the new defensive system of Houston coach Rudy Tomjanovich, and led his new team in assists. However, by the following spring Pippen openly expressed frustration over the shortcomings of his team-matesâ€”particularly Barkleyâ€”and his own inability to be cast in scoring positions, telling a Jet interviewer, “Playing the minutes I’m playing [without scoring] â€¦ makes the game not any fun anymore. My next step is to find out why this organization need to haveed me.” As before, off-court troubles followed on-court troubles, and in May 1999 Pippen was arrested for driving while intoxicated, although the charges were later dropped

Because of his growing dissatisfaction with Houston, Pippen requested that he be traded, and in October of 1999 he found himself signed with the middle-ranked Portland Trailblazers. Although he helped Portland into the Western Conference finals in both 2000 and 2001, Pippen averaged only 11.3 points during the 2000-01 season. Exhibiting a playing flavor characterized by Chicago Tribune reporter Sam Smith as “toned down” and “quieter,” the now-veteran Pippen’s performance was praised by fellow teammate Steve Kerr as that of a player who “knows how to find you where you want the ball.” Despite his fall from the national spotlight, Pippen expressed his satisfaction at playing on a team noted for its camaraderie and love of the game.

Although his accomplishments have been somewhat overshadowed by ups and downs in his personal life, Pippen designed into one of the greatest forwards in professional basketball, his success inspired in no small part by the straightened circumstances of his childhood. His pairing with superstar Jordan proved to be a double-edged sword: while he fueled Jordan’s rise to stardom and helped make the Chicago Bulls a force to be reckoned with during most of the 1990s, his own abilities were often overshadowed. Determined to achieve a modest fortune in addition to professional success, Pippen has remained wise to the vagaries of professional sports, lending his name to a variety of products and appearing on several television programs while his name held value for commercial sponsors. Joining the Portland Trailblazers as a mature player, Pippen has continued to distinguish himself, his confidence and authority among younger, considerably less experienced athletes bolstered by his multiple NBA records, Olympic wins, and countless other accolades.

Name Scottie Pippen Height 6' 8 Naionality American Date of Birth September 25, 1965 Place of Birth Hamburg, Arkansas, USA Famous for

The post Scottie Pippen Biography Photos Wallpapers appeared first on Beautiful Women.

source http://topbeautifulwomen.com/scottie-pippen-biography-photos-wallpapers/

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debraleedebra · 6 years

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Nick Saban decide between Tua Tagovailoa or Jalen Hurts Alabama Crimson Tide starter

9:00 AM ET

Chris Low & Alex Scarborough

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. -- No matter how many times the final two plays of the College Football Playoff National Championship have been replayed within the Alabama football offices this offseason, they still don't make sense.

One play, Tua Tagovailoa appears lost, scrambling wildly before committing the cardinal sin of taking a sack and a loss of 16 yards on first down in overtime. Down by three points, backed out of comfortable field goal range at the 41-yard line, it's a complete disaster. But the freshman quarterback does the unthinkable on the next play: Calmly, he takes the shotgun snap, steps up in the pocket and fires a picturesque, game-winning touchdown pass for a 26-23 win.

Tua Tagovailoa threw the game-winning touchdown pass to give Alabama the national championship. Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Confetti falls from the rafters. The trophy is lifted. All is forgiven. But Alabama's coaches can't forget. The 35 seconds from the moment Tagovailoa hit the turf to the moment that fateful touchdown pass left his hand is as concerning as it is inspiring. It's agonizing, really, the wrench thrown into one of the most high-profile and high-stakes quarterback battles in recent memory.

Should Saban ride the momentum and the promise of a wild card with zero career starts in Tagovailoa? Or should he stick with Jalen Hurts, the quarterback who started the title game, who threw only one interception all season and has a 26-2 career record, but also serious questions about his ability to throw the football with consistency?

"I can promise you he's not going to be leveraged by anybody on either side." Source close to Nick Saban

"A great moment doesn't make a great season," warned Clemson coach Dabo Swinney. "It's a different deal when you're the guy. Everything matters."

Everyone seems to have an opinion on what Saban should do. The Tagovailoa and Hurts camps want a decision, and would like one quickly, as they consider their long-term plans. But the 66-year-old Saban isn't in a rush. If anything, he sees the problem he has as a good one.

Are we headed for another Nick Saban-Dabo Swinney playoff clash? That's certainly what it looks like. Find out where the rest of the CFP contenders fit in.

Huskers hysteria with Scott Frost, the Vols' document dump, Kyler Murray's big payday, and Texas A&M's championship expectations among topics that dominated off the field.

Coming up with a preseason top 25 is just the start of the fun. Now we can argue about it. Who can make a playoff run from outside the top 10 and which top-10 team will struggle?

2 Related

"It's better to have two quarterbacks than none," he said.

The plan is simple: Ignore the noise, split the first-team reps down the middle when fall camp begins today and let their play decide the outcome.

"I can promise you he's not going to be leveraged by anybody on either side," a source close to Saban said. "You're talking about a guy who parted ways with his offensive coordinator [Lane Kiffin] the week before the national championship game, and then the next year, the same guy who benched his starter and turned to a true freshman quarterback who hadn't played a meaningful snap all season in the second half of the national championship game. He's not going to be afraid to make the decision he feels like he needs to make."

How did we get here?

Alabama's quarterback battle didn't begin the moment Saban benched Hurts at halftime of the national championship game. Not really. What happened against Georgia, when Tagovailoa became an overnight sensation, only served to pour lighter fluid on an already simmering situation.

Alabama offense by QB in title game

HurtsTagovailoaPlays2446Yards94278Yds per play3.96.0TD03

Inside the Alabama coaching offices, Hurts' hold on the starting job had become increasingly unstable over the course of the previous year. Despite winning SEC Offensive Player of the Year honors as a true freshman in 2016, he hadn't shown significant progress as a passer. The offense had become stagnant and, according to multiple sources, skill players had grown frustrated with Hurts' inability to spread the ball around.

Granted, the offense was still effective in most games with Hurts running the ball, but its one-dimensional nature left the potential for exploitation against higher-quality defenses. Case in point: Alabama's only two losses over the course of the last two seasons came to Auburn and Clemson, two teams loaded with defensive line talent that finished in the top 11 nationally in scoring defense in each of the past two years.

Meanwhile, Tagovailoa captured the attention of coaches in practice with his arm strength and accuracy. It was as if the lefty from Hawaii had eyes on the sides of his head, he had such a good feel for the pass rush.

While Saban sticking with Hurts as the starter wasn't necessarily a surprise because of his experience, the fact that Tagovailoa's role was limited solely to mop-up duty was. Of the seven games during the regular season in which Tagovailoa attempted at least one pass, all were blowouts of 18 points or more.

However, there was confidence among coaches that Tagovailoa was ready for the big stage.

play

0:44

The defending champs define consistent excellence, but QB uncertainty and a reliance on youth have them far from comfortable.

"Hurts was undefeated before the Auburn game," said one former staffer. "I don't care how tight the other guy's spirals are. You don't pull an undefeated quarterback for an unknown one. But things ramped up with all the free time after the loss to Auburn."

The Tide still made the College Football Playoff despite a 26-14 loss to their rival in the regular-season finale. In the lead-up to their semifinal game against Clemson, Hurts fell ill and was forced to miss several days of practice. Tagovailoa received all of the first-team reps as a result, and the practices were some of the best for the offense all season. As one former coach put it, "I don't think the ball hit the ground."

The plan was to play Tagovailoa some against Clemson, sources confirmed, and it was discussed among coaches during the game when might be the best time to put him in. But even with Hurts struggling to get anything going in the passing game, it became apparent that Clemson wasn't going to move the ball against Alabama's defense, and coaches ultimately decided to keep Tagovailoa on the sideline, fearing a change might affect Hurts' psyche for the championship game.

Alabama initially planned on playing Tua Tagovailoa in the CFP semifinal against Clemson. AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Feeling let down, the Tagovailoa family expressed its frustration with the situation and, internally, came to a decision: If Tagovailoa didn't play against Georgia, he was going to seriously explore transferring.

During the ESPN MegaCast Coaches Film Room broadcast, Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said that he couldn't have predicted Saban benching Hurts at halftime, let alone in favor of a true freshman quarterback with no meaningful experience.

"In there, when we weren't on television, we were surprised," Gundy said months later. "Everybody was like, 'Would you do that? I don't know if I'd do that. Would you do it? I don't know.' So we were a little bit shocked."

Since winning the game's Offensive MVP award that night, Tagovailoa has become the toast of Tuscaloosa. He gave a pregame speech to the Alabama women's basketball team and delivered the first serve at an Alabama men's tennis match. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook gave him 10-1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy, trailing only Stanford's Bryce Love (5-1) and Wisconsin' Jonathan Taylor (7-1), even though Hurts hadn't yet been technically dethroned as the starter.

2018 Heisman Trophy Odds

PlayerOddsBryce Love, RB, Stanford5-1Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin7-1Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama10-1Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia14-1Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon14-1Khalil Tate, QB, Arizona14-1>>Westgate Las Vegas

But for anyone who didn't think it was an actual competition, all they needed to do was see Tagovailoa return to practice in the spring, only a few days after breaking a finger in his throwing hand. After all, who risks further injury if they're a sure thing? At the spring game, despite being unable to play, Tagovailoa dressed in full pads.

The same morning, in a move that wasn't seen as a coincidence by some, his brother, 2019 quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, verbally committed to Alabama on the steps of Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Despite Tagovailoa's absence, however, Hurts failed to capitalize on having the stage to himself, completing 19 of 37 passes for 195 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.

It should be said that despite the competition and the whirlwind surrounding them, Hurts and Tagovailoa aren't bitter enemies. They're quite supportive of one another. Tagovailoa never let his chagrin over a lack of playing time during the regular season affect his relationship with Hurts, whom he thanked for showing him the ropes as a true freshman. And when Tagovailoa supplanted Hurts in the title game, no one in the Alabama locker room was happier for Tagovailoa than Hurts, who told reporters that his understudy was "built for this."

Alabama offensive lineman Ross Pierschbacher said that if he had a dollar for every time he has been asked about his team's quarterback situation this offseason, he'd have enough money to retire. He never could have ever envisioned this situation a year ago, saying that if he had been told then that Hurts would eventually be battling for his job he would have said, "You're crazy."

"It's a testament to recruiting and just bringing in a lot of talented guys," Pierschbaher explained. "Really, at Alabama, your position is never safe, regardless of who you are."

Can Hurts and Tagovailoa coexist?

Jalen Hurts, left, and Tua Tagovailoa have been supportive of each other despite their competition. AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

Make no mistake: If Hurts were to become available on the transfer market, he would be a hot commodity. A proven winner with 61 touchdowns in two seasons, suitors would be lining up at his door. It's not just that he can run, one head coach said of Hurts, "but he also sees the field and has a great arm."

That's why his father, Averion, wasn't necessarily wrong when he told Bleacher Report this spring that his son would be "the biggest free agent in college football history" if he were to transfer. But while transferring certainly is an option for Hurts, it has never been a threat. Before the article was published, Averion met with Saban one-on-one to tell him that they were content to let the competition play out rather than leave early. If a difficult decision had to be made, then so be it, but that would only happen after a starter was named.

Shortly after the article was released, Averion called to reiterate to Saban that nothing had changed from their previous conversation. What went largely unsaid at that time, though, was that Tagovailoa was in a similar situation. Intimating the possibility of transferring, he told people he didn't want to go through another season as the backup.

In June, new legislation paved the way for both quarterbacks to coexist: The NCAA would now allow players to compete in up to four games while still retaining the ability to redshirt. So if Saban wanted to carry the competition into the first few games of the season -- as he's done time and time again in the past -- he is now free to do that without either quarterback losing a valuable year of eligibility.

The new rule doesn't solve every problem, of course. Should the competition last two games, for instance, managing the remaining two games for the backup would be paramount. An injury of any kind would create tremendous pressure to burn the redshirt, weighing the quarterback's future versus the needs of the team.

When former East Carolina quarterback Gardner Minshew flipped his commitment from Alabama to Washington State in the spring, it removed what would have been a valuable safety net in terms of depth at the position. While Mac Jones has shown improvement, he's still a redshirt freshman with no experience. The only other scholarship quarterback on the roster is Layne Hatcher, an unranked prospect previously committed to Arkansas State.

Heading into fall camp, the momentum to win the job is squarely with Tagovailoa. But Hurts hasn't been counted out yet. After Saban said at SEC media days that he had "no idea" whether Hurts would be part of the roster to start the season, Hurts met with him to say he wasn't leaving and that his plan, regardless of his playing situation, would be to stay and graduate in December.

"I think Jalen will rise in this competition," said a former Alabama staffer, "and maybe it's given him even new life."

Another former Alabama staffer said that he thinks first-year offensive coordinator Mike Locksley could be good for Hurts and would actually call a game that's better suited for his skill set.

"The players know Tua is a better passer, but they also trust Jalen," the former staffer said. "It's a good problem to have, one a lot of coaches would love to have, and that's what has separated Alabama under Saban, his ability to create competition at every position and the players buying into that competition."

What will Saban do?

As for Saban, what he hoped would be a private matter has become far too public for comfort.

Nick Saban will wait before making a decision as to which QB will start. Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire

Averion's comments caused a stir, of course, but the attention paid to Tagovailoa wasn't ideal, either. In May, Tagovailoa's hometown in Hawaii threw him what was billed as a four-hour "Hometown Hero Parade." And even though media rarely are granted contact with Crimson Tide players outside of practice, two local outlets made the trip and secured one-on-one interviews with Tagovailoa and his family during the week of celebration.

Prior to the start of camp, Saban attempted to stymie any more unwanted headlines.

"The one thing I've talked to both kids about is that they can't go into this ... with the attitude, 'If I don't win the job, then I'm going to transfer,'" Saban said. "If that's the case, then you're not totally committed to what you're supposed to do. You're ready to cut and run as a competitor before you ever start? That ain't good. Now, neither kid has said that, but you've got other people saying it."

Saban said he has relayed a similar message to the families of both players as well.

"The one thing I've talked to both kids about is that they can't go into this ... with the attitude, 'If I don't win the job, then I'm going to transfer.' If that's the case, then you're not totally committed to what you're supposed to do. You're ready to cut and run as a competitor before you ever start? That ain't good. Now, neither kid has said that, but you've got other people saying it."

Nick Saban

"You are ruining your son's ability to be the leader of the team when you make any kind of these statements because the other kids see it as self-promotion," he told the parents. "The guy who's going to be our quarterback is the guy who wins the team. It's the way it's always been. We're going to let it play out on the practice field."

But perhaps more intriguing than Saban's management of the narrative surrounding the competition is the internal predicament he faces as a coach. The position battle, arguably the most important of his career, isn't just a question of experience and talent. It's also a matter of style that could rewrite his M.O. as a head coach of more than 20 years.

Saban, who has won five national championships at Alabama and one at LSU, has long valued a quarterback with experience that he can trust to take care of the offense -- a "game manager," as he has often said. And in Hurts, there's no question he has just that. Hurts rarely turns the ball over, and his leadership has been evident from the moment he started as a true freshman.

The allure of Tagovailoa, on the other hand, is undeniable. He's perhaps the most talented thrower Saban has ever had. Despite his lack of experience, despite his sometimes reckless choices with the football, he has the potential to unlock the Alabama offense, incorporating more pass-catchers and opening up a downfield attack that's been missing.

"I told them both, 'The more that you can do in your performance, your leadership, how you affect other people, the relationships you have on the team and the confidence that you develop in other players in your ability to distribute the ball, because that's what the quarterback is -- the distribution center of the ball -- then that's the guy who's going to have the best opportunity to win the team," Saban said.

While some in and around the program have already pinned Tagovailoa as the favorite to win the job, Saban hasn't made up his mind. He has seen too many things go sideways during his career -- too many fluke injuries, too many momentum swings -- to predict the future.

Good article originally from ESPN

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junker-town · 4 years

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Dorktown: Appreciating the first couple years of Peter Warrick’s career

Photo by Michael J. Minardi/Getty Images

Things were rough for the Bengals in the early 2000s

The NFL has data for how many passes have been thrown to each player since 1992. And for the eight seasons since those records began, no one that had ever had at least 125 passes come his way had ever averaged as few as five yards per target. Only 1994 Kelvin Martin was even close. Then wide receiver Peter Warrick came along:

Warrick entered the NFL after a dazzling season at Florida State, which in 1999 became the first team ever to sit atop the AP rankings from the preseason through the end without ever being knocked off their perch. Throughout the season, Warrick had been their best player. It culminated with a resounding win over the Michael Vick-led Virginia Tech Hokies in the BCS National Championship Game, in which Warrick was the clear-cut Sugar Bowl MVP with 163 receiving yards and two touchdowns, a punt return he also took to the house, and a 2-point conversion.

A few months later, in the 2000 NFL draft, he was chosen fourth overall by a terrible Cincinnati Bengals team quarterbacked by a terrible bust in Akili Smith. Warrick stepped into an inherently tough situation. The Bengals needed him to the immediate focal point of their floundering aerial attack as a rookie. They didn’t have much of a choice — of their top three wide receivers the previous season, one (Willie Jackson) left in free agency, one (Carl Pickens) was cut as a result of a messy, deteriorated relationship, and one (Darnay Scott) would go on to miss the entire season after breaking his leg in training camp.

This all left Warrick as by far the most prominent and qualified option in a wide receiver cupboard that was bare and inexperienced. His fellow Bengals wideouts in 2000 were Craig Yeast, Danny Farmer, and Warrick’s FSU teammate, Ron Dugans, who also happened to average just 3.29 yards across his 38 targets. At the time, this was the second-worst mark since at least 1992 among wide receivers with more than 30 targets in a season, trailing only 1996 Alex Van Dyke. Again, Akili Smith was not helping matters.

Neither was Warrick, as it turned out. Doubtless he was hamstrung by atrocious quarterback play, but as anemic as the Bengals’ overall passing game was, they still averaged even fewer yards per pass throwing to Warrick (4.70) than not throwing to Warrick (4.96).

Warrick’s rookie season constituted by far the most inefficient receiving season on record by someone targeted as often as he was. His encore in 2001 — despite Scott’s return and the arrival of Chad then-Johnson, ostensibly alleviating some of the burden — was the runner-up:

In fact, as you can see in the initial scatter chart, even among those with as few as 100 targets, only a couple wide receivers — 1998 Jerome Pathon and 1998 Irving Fryar — had ever come in under five yards per target. (A couple non-wideouts did as well, though backs and tight ends generally have lower yards-per-target averages so it’s more understandable coming from them. It’s jarring, however, to see figures so low from wide receivers, which is why they’re being categorized differently here.)

Warrick was under five yards per target in each of his first two seasons on even more volume! Here’s how that translated for everyone’s total receiving yardage:

Warrick produced 592 and 667 receiving yards in the two seasons; of the 125-target players, not only are those the two lowest figures, but ’94 Martin had been the only other wide receiver who came in under 750:

So that’s how those seasons stacked up at the time they occurred. They still hold up quite well all these years later. Here’s the same chart as earlier, only with everyone from 2002-19 also included:

Only once has someone else been targeted at least 125 times while failing to top five yards per target: 2006 Chris Chambers, who parlayed his 154 targets into just 677 yards, a beautiful season its own right, and 2012 Larry Fitzgerald is the dot with 156 targets just barely above five. With the exception of only that ’94 Martin season, no other 125-target wide receiver’s even close (in case you’re wondering, the cellar-dwelling wide receiver there with 108 targets is 2003 Az-Zahir Hakim). Warrick, of course, had the two such seasons:

The thing is, though, Chambers (and Fitzgerald and Martin) never had a second season in the vicinity of that kind of inefficiency in a high-volume season. Not by a long shot. Warrick’s 2000 season was a fun historical outlier, but that 2001 performance piggybacking off it — and thus rendering the 2000 season not even an outlier to his own career — takes everything to another level (in ’01 he also had eight rushing attempts; in a lovely touch, the final six combined to produce negative six yards). Here are the receiving yardage totals again, this time including everyone from 2002-19:

Two of the most inefficient receiving seasons coming from the same wide receiver in back-to-back years might naturally lead to the question of how said wide receiver fares when assessing two-year periods. Across those 2000 and 2001 seasons, Warrick was targeted with 263 passes which he turned into 1,259 receiving yards. About 4.79 yards per target. Which, here ya go:

The only other wide receiver there joining 2000-01 Warrick under five yards per target is 2007-08 Marty Booker, who, at 4.98 yards per target, just barely sneaks under five while barely exceeding 150 targets. Warrick’s at 4.79 on 263 targets!

Of the 426 other dots with at least 250 targets, no one else is under 5.5. In fact, no one but 2005-06 Chris Chambers (320 targets that yielded an average of 5.61 yards, with that ’06 season mostly responsible) is within a full yard of 2000-01 Warrick. Here are the two-year receiving yardage totals of anyone approaching or exceeding his 263 targets:

In 2001, bad Jon Kitna was his quarterback, which again underscores that this mess certainly doesn’t fall entirely on Warrick’s shoulders. On the other hand, not only have plenty of other players played with plenty of other awful quarterbacks, but, once again, the Bengals still averaged fewer yards when throwing to Warrick vs. not throwing to Warrick. This time by a pretty significant margin (4.87 vs. 5.64).

Warrick went on to have respectable seasons in 2002 and 2003, averaging over seven yards per target in that time when the Bengals were quarterbacked by a competent quarterback. (It was still Jon Kitna, but he was better.) But starting late in 2003, Warrick began developing chronic leg problems that quickly led to a lost 2004 season.

His injury issues opened the door for T.J. Houshmandzadeh’s emergence opposite his Oregon State teammate (indeed, for a couple years, the Bengals’ wide receiver corps consisted of multiple sets of collegiate teammates), star wideout Chad Johnson, which ultimately marked the end of the road for Warrick in Cincinnati.

Injuries robbed him of a chance to put together a more productive career, as he was well on his way to rebounding after that inauspicious start. It’d have been interesting to see how the rest of Warrick’s time in football might have gone had he stayed healthy. But no matter how else his career might have played out, those first two seasons would have remained things of terrible, awesome beauty.

Previously on Dorktown:

The NFC East could give us a 6-win NFL playoff team

MLB’s lost treasure, the bizarre and terrible 1994 AL West

The 2019 Nationals won the World Series, but their three-game extra base binge was even more impressive

Video: The History of the Seattle Mariners

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yahoo-shutdown-corner-blog · 6 years

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2018 NFL Preview: Redskins coach Jay Gruden believes in Alex Smith, and he better be right

yahoo

Yahoo Sports is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per weekday in reverse order of our initial 2018 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on Aug. 1, the day before the Hall of Fame Game kicks off the preseason.

(Yahoo Sports graphics by Amber Matsumoto)

The Washington Redskins emerged from the Kirk Cousins contract debacle as well as could reasonably be expected.

And if you believe Jay Gruden, the team upgraded when it traded for Alex Smith.

“Yeah, without a doubt,” Gruden said. “I don’t want to compare two players, but we’re always trying to be better at every position. We got better.”

It’s a double-edged sword for Gruden. He probably doesn’t have the job security to oversee a long rebuild with a bad quarterback. But by proclaiming the Redskins got better at quarterback, he has left himself no outs if it doesn’t work. His seat has to be considered warm coming into this season, and he can’t buy himself more time by blaming a bad quarterback situation in Washington’s post-Cousins world. He told the world Washington improved in that spot.

[Yahoo Fantasy Football leagues are open: Sign up now for free]

It always seemed Gruden and the Redskins had a strange relationship with Cousins. The “How you like me now?” moment a few years ago seemed to reveal tension beneath the surface over the lack of appreciation for Cousins’ skills. The front office never gave him the contract offer he knew he could get on the open market (he got that mega-deal from the Minnesota Vikings). Gruden always held back praise for Cousins. After the season was done, Gruden made a comment that’s ridiculous from an NFL coach.

“You’re 7-9, you know it’s hard to say, ‘Wow, this guy really was outstanding,'” Gruden said.

That’s inane. Cousins played remarkably last season given the injuries and lack of talent around him; downgrading his performance based on the team’s record is delusional. He’s the only reason the Redskins weren’t picking in the top five of this year’s draft.

But when former Redskins general manager Scot McCloughan said in an interview with 104.3 The Fan in Denver after the season that he didn’t see a “special” player in Cousins, we can probably assume many decision makers still with the team share that feeling. For whatever reason, the Redskins never embraced Cousins as much as everyone else did.

And it’s possible Washington is right. They were around Cousins every day and know his limitations. Cousins was quite productive, and the Vikings believe Cousins is a franchise quarterback, but for a few years the Redskins have been telling us through their actions that they didn’t love him. When Gruden says Smith is better than Cousins, it doesn’t seem like predictable praise for a new player. He seems to genuinely believe it.

There are reasons to like Smith. He led the NFL in passer rating last season, albeit with a far better supporting cast than Washington will give him. Gruden listed all of the things he likes about Smith, and it seemed like more praise than he gave Cousins in six seasons.

“It’s not one thing, it’s everything. It’s the entire body of work,” Gruden said, according to ESPN. “He’s very good at the intermediate ball. He’s good with the quick game. He can run zone reads, the [run-pass options]. Very exciting. … The ability to ad-lib, make plays that aren’t there and keep plays alive. Coaching him for the first time will be exciting because I don’t think there’s a limit on what he can do. He has all the things you want a quarterback to be able to do.”

This means there are no more excuses. Gruden could freeze out Robert Griffin III for Cousins and be given a pass for a few years. But you can’t offer that kind of praise for a new quarterback after another change and then not show improvement. Gruden is 28-35-1 as Redskins coach. While you can never predict what a team will do when it comes to head-coaching decisions – see: Lewis, Marvin – it seems like a good bet that Gruden better have some quick success with Smith, because he won’t survive otherwise.

There’s more to team success than quarterback play (you wouldn’t know it from Gruden’s ignorant “7-9” comment about Cousins). The Redskins aren’t bad around their new quarterback, but they’re not great either. The defense is good, a bit underrated, though it won’t scare anyone. The receivers could be good if some things break right, but that group is largely unknown. The run game should be much better with rookie Derrius Guice, but we don’t know.

This is a middle-of-the-road team expecting its improvement to come from ditching a quarterback with 13,176 yards and 81 touchdowns the past three seasons.

Gruden better hope he’s right about how good Smith can be.

Washington Redskins quarterback Alex Smith came over from Kansas City in an offseason trade. (AP)

Let’s ignore the missteps that led to the Kirk Cousins departure and focus on where the Redskins were at the end of last season. They were without a quarterback and had no obvious path to get one. In that context, ending up with Alex Smith was a fine outcome, though they paid a hefty trade price giving up a good cornerback in Kendall Fuller and a third-round pick. Signing the 34-year-old Smith to a four-year, $94 million extension is risky, but the Redskins will deal with that down the road. I like the signing of receiver Paul Richardson, and cornerback Orlando Scandrick helps to replace Fuller. There were some free-agent losses other than Cousins, but nothing too devastating. I liked the rookie class because Derrius Guice will be one of the best picks of this year’s draft.

GRADE: B

If the Redskins’ last two first-round picks pay off, the front seven could be very good. End Jonathan Allen was a good value pick in the first round last year, though his rookie season was limited to five games due to injury. If you watched Alabama in the College Football Playoff last season you know the potential of 2018 first-round pick Da’Ron Payne. Inside linebackers Mason Foster and Zach Brown are good at what they do, and Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith form an underrated pass-rush duo. They combined for 21 sacks last year. There’s a lot to like.

Alex Smith benefited from very good talent around him with the Chiefs last season. It’s unclear how good Washington’s cast is. Jamison Crowder is a fantastic slot receiver, even if he took a step back last season, and that’s a good start. Who else is reliable? Jordan Reed can’t stay healthy. Josh Doctson makes some great catches but he has shown no consistency. I liked Washington’s addition of Paul Richardson, but he was a low-volume receiver for Seattle and we don’t know what he could do with a bigger target share. You can easily talk yourself into this group being good. It’s also easy to see how it could disappoint.

The Redskins botched the Kirk Cousins contract situation, then overcompensated with Alex Smith’s deal. For practical purposes it would be hard for Washington to get out of his four-year, $94 million deal before 2021, according to Spotrac’s figures. Of that $94 million, a whopping $71 million is practically guaranteed. Smith’s 2020 salary of $16 million becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2019 league year, according to Rich Tandler of NBC Sports Washington, and it’s impossible to believe Washington would cut him after one year and $55 million in guaranteed money. That means in any realistic scenario, no matter how good or bad Smith is in 2018 and 2019, Smith will be Washington’s quarterback in 2020 at 36 years old. That might work out very well, but that scenario carries risk.

Cornerback Josh Norman came to Washington with great fanfare, and he has been a good addition. However, now on the wrong side of 30 years old, he’s also at a point where cornerbacks start to slide. We might have seen the beginning of his decline last year. Pro Football Focus, which has always graded Norman well, ranked him as the No. 53 cornerback in the NFL last season (Norman disagreed). Bleacher Report’s film analysis for its NFL1000 series put Norman No. 24 among outside corners. There’s nothing wrong with being a top-25 NFL cornerback (not as great to be top 53), but the Redskins need Norman to be an elite cornerback, especially when you consider they traded away Kendall Fuller. However, a rebound becomes less likely at Norman’s age. Norman will turn 31 years old on Dec. 15 and also has a salary-cap number of almost $17 million. The Redskins could reasonably move on from Norman in 2019, when he is slated to make $11 million in base salary. But they have to be hoping he returns to form as a top-10 cornerback and becomes an easy investment for another year.

From Yahoo’s Andy Behrens: “You shouldn’t need a fantasy expert to tell you that Derrius Guice has a chance to be very good, very soon. His talent is hard to miss and he’s clearly the best early-down rushing option on this team’s roster. No one should be surprised if he delivers a top-10 or 12 positional finish in his first season.

“If there’s a sneaky-good fantasy option in Washington, it’s fourth-year receiver Jamison Crowder. He was a semi-buzzy player last summer, but nagging injury issues limited him in the early weeks. Crowder’s performance in the second half of the season offered a glimpse of what he’s capable of doing in 2018. Between Weeks 8 and 16, he caught 44 passes for 615 yards and three scores. He’s a decent bet for 90 receptions and 1100-plus yards in a healthy season, with Alex Smith at the controls of the offense. Crowder and Smith reportedly clicked during OTAs, so there’s that.

“It’s possible that Dez Bryant could land in Washington and unsettle the receiving hierarchy, but, at the moment, Crowder looks like a strong candidate for a breakout season.”

[Booms/Busts: Fantasy outlook on the Redskins.]

[Yahoo Fantasy Football leagues are open: Sign up now for free]

Football Outsiders tracks injuries not just by adding up games lost, but weighing which players were hurt. An injury to a backup safety doesn’t have the same impact as an injury to a team’s quarterback, and FO’s adjusted games lost metric accounts for those differences. In FO’S AGL metric, the Redskins lost the most games to injury last season, thanks in large part to a crushing wave of ailments on the offensive line. Even with the worst injury situation in the NFL, the Redskins went 7-9. A lot of credit goes to Kirk Cousins, who played very well when everything around him was falling apart, but it also reflects well on Jay Gruden.

CAN DERRIUS GUICE BE OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR?

Technically, the answer is probably no because voters like quarterbacks. Five quarterbacks were taken in the first round and Saquon Barkley exists as a rookie, therefore it will be hard for anyone else to make a run at Rookie of the Year. But I like Guice as a dark horse. We still don’t know exactly why Guice slipped to the second round, but he was the second-best back in this class. He’s not great in the passing game and that likely hurt his stock, but he’s fantastic as a runner. He runs a sub-4.5 40-yard dash and packs a violent punch in his 224-pound frame. I like everything about Guice as a runner, and there’s nobody on the Redskins who should stop him from an early down role. It would be a surprise if he doesn’t rush for more than 1,000 yards this season.

The subtle slights of Kirk Cousins are ridiculous, but maybe Jay Gruden is right and Alex Smith is better. It’s not like the Redskins were terrible last season, and that was with some awful injury luck. If they have better health and Smith is an upgrade, the Redskins could be in playoff contention. That’s a tough task in a deep NFC, but the pieces are there for it.

There’s a reason Alex Smith was available. The Chiefs thought they had gone as far as they could with Smith, and drafted Patrick Mahomes to push them further. Smith has always been a solid quarterback, but not one who can lift a middling supporting cast. However, when the Redskins paid a steep price for Smith, it wasn’t counting on getting a game manager. He needs to be really good. If Smith isn’t better than Kirk Cousins, that will be pointed out often in Washington. And Smith will very likely be the starter through 2020 no matter what. A step back puts Jay Gruden on a much hotter seat, and then all of a sudden Washington would be a backsliding team that made a huge investment in a good but not great quarterback in his mid-30s.

Washington is a team I struggled to rank. It could be much better than No. 23. I don’t buy that Alex Smith is an upgrade over Kirk Cousins, but Smith is capable. I also believe that Derrius Guice can be a difference maker. Yet, the Redskins play a tough schedule again and there’s nothing about them that indicates a big breakout. I could see them being about 7-9, just like last season. It will be interesting to see if that’s enough to buy Jay Gruden a sixth season.

32. Cleveland Browns 31. Indianapolis Colts 30. New York Jets 29. Arizona Cardinals 28. Buffalo Bills 27. Cincinnati Bengals 26. Chicago Bears 25. New York Giants 24. Miami Dolphins

– – – – – – –

Frank Schwab is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab

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mitchbeck · 5 years

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KEELEY: TED HART RETURNS TO MARINERS

Cumberland native signs from SPHL BY: Michael Keeley, Maine Mariners PORTLAND, ME – November 5, 2019 – Ted Hart has a second chance to become the first Maine native to suit up for the Mariners. The Cumberland born forward signed to a standard player contract (SPC) on Tuesday, re-joining the Mariners from the SPHL’s Peoria Rivermen. Hart was in training camp with the Mariners, but did not make the opening night roster. One of three hockey playing brothers, Hart is an alumnus of Greely High School where he was a part of back to back state championship teams in 2012 and 2013. He went on to play collegiately at Yale University, where he was two-time ECAC All-Academic. Hart graduated last spring and signed with the Mariners over the summer. Hart played in Maine’s lone preseason contest against the Worcester Railers on October 5th in Exeter, New Hampshire. He was released the following day. After the Mariners cut him from training camp, the 23-year-old Hart signed in the Southern Professional Hockey League with the Peoria Rivermen. In five SPHL games, Hart has a goal and five assists. "I'm very excited to be back in Maine and get another opportunity with the Mariners," said Hart. "I really enjoyed my time with the Peoria Rivermen and I was able to work on some details in my game, so hopefully I can continue that success and contribute to the Mariners organization." In the past two weeks, the Mariners have lost three forwards, as Ty Ronning, Lewis Zerter-Gossage, and Ryan Dmowski were all recalled to AHL Hartford. The Mariners are home on Saturday night against the Adirondack Thunder at 6 PM for Military Appreciation Night presented by Martin’s Point in partnership with Bath Iron Works. The first 2,000 fans through the door will receive an exclusive Mariners winter “lobster” beanie, courtesy of Martin’s Point. It’s also a “Family Four Pack” game: families of four can get four tickets, four food and drink vouchers, and four Mariners can koozies for as low as $80. Family four packs must be purchased in advance. The Mariners are also home on Monday, November 11th at 7:00 PM against the Reading Royals. Famous Philadelphia Flyers mascot Gritty will be in the building. Limited Gritty packs are available at MarinersOfMaine.com which include a Gritty puck, Mariners hat, a professional photo with Gritty, and more. For more information and to purchase tickets, go to MarinersOfMaine.com, call 833-GO-MAINE, or visit the Mariners front office at 94 Free St. in Portland. PHOTO CREDIT: Kristin Basnett, The Sin Bin Read the full article

#AdirondackThunder #AHL #ECAC #MaineMariners #MichaelKeeley #PeoriaRivermen #PhiladelphiaFlyers #ProfessionalHockeyLeague #ReadingRoyals #RyanDmowski #SouthernProfessionalHockeyLeague #SPHL #WorcesterRailers #YaleUniversity

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thornburgrealty · 6 years

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jodyedgarus · 6 years

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The A’s Changed Baseball Once. They May Be Changing It Again.

At midseason, the American League seemed decided. The number of tanking teams — some intentional efforts, some unintentional — combined with the AL’s super teams1 were conspiring to strip the league of postseason races. The league’s playoff teams seemed all but set by the All-Star Game.

But then the Oakland A’s came charging out of the baseball wilderness to give us some late-summer drama.

After three consecutive last-place finishes, the Athletics began the year with a 16 percent probability of reaching the postseason and a 6 percent chance of winning the AL West. And just two months ago, they were as many as 11.5 games behind the reigning World Series champion Astros. But after winning 42 of their last 58 games entering Friday, the A’s have cut that deficit to 1.5 games, and they now have an 89 percent chance of advancing to the postseason and a 22 percent chance of winning the AL West.

The surge is no fluke. Oakland has the game’s eighth-best run differential, at +94 runs, and has seen the greatest improvement in FiveThirtyEight’s team rating since the start of the season.2

The A’s meteoric rise

Major league teams by change in Elo from the preseason and the All-Star Game, as of Aug. 22

Elo Change from … Team Preseason All-Star Game Current All-Star Game Preseason Athletics 1490 1528 1551 +23 +61 Red Sox 1549 1590 1602 +12 +53 Braves 1474 1510 1519 +9 +45 Rays 1495 1519 1519 0 +24 Cardinals 1522 1508 1540 +32 +18 Rockies 1503 1510 1519 +9 +16 Diamondbacks 1523 1523 1536 +13 +13 Pirates 1483 1483 1493 +10 +10 Reds 1465 1484 1474 -10 +9 Astros 1577 1599 1585 -14 +8 Phillies 1490 1507 1496 -11 +6 Yankees 1565 1589 1571 -18 +6 Brewers 1510 1519 1515 -4 +5 Angels 1510 1514 1511 -3 +1 Mariners 1508 1522 1507 -15 -1 Giants 1494 1502 1490 -12 -4 Marlins 1443 1449 1439 -10 -4 Rangers 1497 1480 1492 +12 -5 Mets 1491 1464 1484 +20 -7 Tigers 1449 1448 1441 -7 -8 Indians 1576 1555 1566 +11 -10 Padres 1455 1446 1444 -2 -11 Cubs 1558 1568 1543 -25 -15 Dodgers 1568 1560 1553 -7 -15 White Sox 1457 1437 1441 +4 -16 Twins 1510 1494 1493 -1 -17 Nationals 1546 1522 1524 +2 -22 Blue Jays 1507 1488 1480 -8 -27 Royals 1459 1408 1407 -1 -52 Orioles 1475 1422 1416 -6 -59

So how did the A’s get here? This isn’t another “Moneyball” story. The once-undervalued metric of on-base percentage is no longer baseball’s best-kept secret — and it’s not even an Oakland staple. The A’s have instead pursued different paths to become one of the better teams in the major leagues despite opening the season with the game’s lowest payroll.

Keeping it in the air

Because fly balls and line drives are so much more valuable than ground balls, more and more individual players are trying to launch balls into the air. But the A’s have acquired, and ostensibly tried to develop, the skill at a teamwide level since 2013. As MLB.com’s Mike Petriello found, the A’s have posted five of the eight lowest ground-ball seasons since 2004, including this season’s mark so far. Their average launch angle of 14.9 degrees leads baseball.3

While they have acquired fly-ball hitters like Jed Lowrie, Matt Joyce and Khris Davis, they have also developed anti-grounder sluggers in Matt Olson (2012 first-round pick) and Matt Chapman (2014 first-rounder). Lowrie told FiveThirtyEight that he never sat down with an A’s official to talk about his batted-ball profile, but the Stanford University product does use the technology available in the home batting cage for tracking his exit velocity and launch angle to fine-tune his swing.

“My guess is they probably identify guys like that to try and acquire [the skill],” Lowrie said of the A’s front office. “It’s part of their calculus.”

What on-base percentage was to the Moneyball A’s, fly-ball percentage is to this group of upstarts. That’s made them the league’s fourth-most efficient offense despite a near league-average on-base mark of .322.

The A’s are also adapting to their environment. Lowrie notes that Oakland Coliseum is one of the most difficult places in the game to drive the ball, and while the A’s have the lowest ground-ball rate on the road in the majors at 37.8 percent, that rate spikes to 40.9 percent at home, good for eighth-lowest. While Lowrie says teammates Davis, Olson and Chapman can hit the ball “out of Yellowstone,” other A’s alter their approach depending on the ballpark environment. The A’s lead baseball in offensive efficiency on the road with 119 weighted runs created plus (wRC+), a stat that adjusts for park and run environment, with 100 representing league-average performance. But Oakland is only about average at home, with 96 wRC+.

Lowrie noted that the A’s set a record for most consecutive road games with a home run this season4 and that they’ve done much more damage on the road. The Athletics rank 18th in the majors in home runs at home with 67, but they lead the majors in road homers with 106. They are one of the best road teams in baseball at 37-26.

“We are playing on a [home] field that is below sea level, with swirling winds that are generally blowing in from right field,” Lowrie said. “We’ve pitched much better at home,” with a 3.32 home ERA vs. 4.30 on the road. “We’ve found different ways to win at home and on the road.”

Always be closing

The early 2000s A’s rarely overpaid or valued relievers, believing them to be highly fungible. This Oakland team has the most dominant reliever in the game in Blake Treinen and has further bolstered its strong bullpen with trade acquisitions of Jeurys Familia (2.02 fielding-independent pitching, 19 strikeouts in 15 innings with the A’s) from the Mets and former Twins closer Fernando Rodney.

Acquired as a buy-low target with a 5.73 ERA last July in a trade that sent Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to Washington, Treinen is second in the majors in relief WAR and owns a 1.00 ERA.

While WAR may not be the optimum way to measure a reliever’s value, win probability added (WPA) accounts for the change in win expectancy between every plate appearance. According to WPA, Treinen has been the most valuable pitcher in baseball this season — ranking ahead of aces Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola. His sinker leads the majors in whiffs per swing, and when put in play, it produces 4.6 ground balls for every fly ball. Per FanGraphs pitch values, it’s the fifth-best sinker in the majors. The pitch, with its combination of elite velocity and movement, can make opponents look foolish.

Blake Treinen with your Standard 98mph Back Foot turbo Sinker. pic.twitter.com/3cAYX5EGyb

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 4, 2018

Treinen also has a slider and cutter that baffle opponents.

Blake Treinen, 89mph Slider, 95mph Cutter and an Overlay (slow) of both pitches. pic.twitter.com/9n6XpS9lb8

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 14, 2018

Diversifying their pitches

While the A’s have a dominant star in the bullpen, the story is different in the rotation. In the early 2000s, the A’s had a trio of front-line starters in Barry Zito, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson. This year’s A’s team has a rotation populated predominantly by reclamation projects like Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Mike Fiers and Edwin Jackson. Without a legit ace — or even a household name — the A’s rank second to the Red Sox in pitching WPA.

Signed to a one-year, $1.5 million contract in the winter, Cahill has become one of the biggest bargains in baseball in part by reducing the use of his fastball and generating more swing and miss with his slider, more than doubling its usage. Cahill has a 3.44 ERA, and his 2.1 WAR according to FanGraphs is the second-best mark of his career.

Cahill had once been heavily dependent upon his sinker, but he told FiveThirtyEight that the A’s have given him “weighted pitch” data, which he’s used to diversity his overall pitch mix. For the first time since 2012, he has four above-average pitches, according to FanGraphs linear weights.

“If you can throw four different pitches, and they are doing different things in the zone, it’s tough [for batters] to guess,” Cahill said.

The A’s also have pitch-tracking Rapsodo technology for use in between appearances, which Cahill uses to monitor his release point and the underlying characteristics of his pitches — like spin rate — between starts.

“I go look at my curveball and see if the spin rate is higher,” Cahill said. “I look at where I am releasing it.”

The well-traveled, and perhaps forgotten about, Jackson has given the A’s 60 quality innings this season — not bad for a guy playing on his 13th(!) MLB team. Jackson has done this by getting crafty: reducing the use of his fastball from 35.3 percent last season (47.9 percent for his career) to 16.2 percent this season.

Among the changes Fiers has made since joining the A’s is creating more separation in height between his fastball and curveball, as Jeff Sullivan found for FanGraphs. He has a 1.47 ERA in three starts with Oakland.

Saving more runs

The makeshift pitching staff is also aided by one of the best infield defenses in the game. That’s an effort led by Chapman.

While Chapman is an excellent hitter, he’s the best third base defender in the game according to Defensive Runs Saved — and it’s not close. In fact, his 26 Defensive Runs Saved are the best in the game at any position. The next closest third baseman is Travis Shaw of Milwaukee with nine.

Chapman leads an elite Oakland infield defense. According to DRS, the A’s also rank second in DRS at first base and eighth at shortstop in the majors. Moreover, Oakland trails only the Arizona in the difference between expected opponent batting average — based on opponent exit velocity — and actual opponent batting average. The A’s are getting to more ground balls and line drives relative to their infielder rivals.

The Moneyball A’s didn’t prize defense, fly balls or ace relievers, but this club does. While the formula is different than in the early 2000s, what remains the same is that the A’s are finding value where other clubs are not.

Check out our latest MLB predictions.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-as-changed-baseball-once-they-may-be-changing-it-again/

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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15 Fearless Forecasts for 2017-18: Results and Lessons Learned

With the regular season now over, it’s time for me to face the music on the 15 Fearless Forecasts I made right before the 2017-18 season kicked off. Rather than just listing the results, I’ll talk about lessons that can be learned from my correct and incorrect predictions and the logic I used in making them. That way all of us – myself included – can use the results to make better fantasy decisions going forward.

For each of the 15 forecasts, I’ll assign a grade of:

HIT – the forecast turned out correct

CLOSE CALL – I was almost correct and had sound logic

MISS – I was incorrect but some aspects of my logic may have held true

AIR BALL – I was wrong in my prediction plus with most – if not all – of my accompanying logic

Without further ado, let’s dive in!

1) At least 15 defensemen will score 50+ points

Result = HIT (19 tallied at least 50 points)

Seeing that 19 had 50+ points might make this seem like not such a fearless forecast; but remember, over the last six years there’d only been 9, 5, 9, 11, 12, and 9 who tallied 50+ points, so a jump to 15 was indeed a bold prediction. Plus, any “at least“ scoring forecast is always vulnerable to injuries.

So why the increase, and can we count on it being the new normal? The number of rearguards who averaged 3:00+ of PP Time didn’t rise (19 this season and last), but fewer averaged 2:30-2:59 (14, versus 17 in 2016-17). That suggests I was correct about more teams embracing the idea of using just 1D on PP1, and, as a result, that lone D factoring into scoring slightly more. But I think the key in this prediction was the peak age factor, as when you look at those who scored 50+ this season, 15 of the 19 were age 23 to 28, which is in the sweet spot in terms of production.

I was also correct about the number of 40-49 point d-men dropping (11, versus 14 in 2016-17 and none had 46-49 points) due to the same factors. I’d look for a similar pattern next season as well, so keep that in mind when making your keeper selections and assigning rankings for next year’s drafts.

2) No Sharks forward will score 60+ points

Result = MISS (Joe Pavelski finished with 66 points after a nearly point per game second half, and Logan Couture posted a steady 61 points)

Not even a major injury to Joe Thornton and weak early season for Pavelski (24 points in his first 38 games) was enough to make this prediction come true, as Pavelski surged in the second half and Couture was a steady eddie all season, which was enough for both to finish above 60 points. Even still, Pavelski’s scoring rate dropped for the second straight campaign and this is Couture’s third straight season in which he’s scored at a lower rate than his prior four, so I was at least onto something.

Also, despite this being a miss, there were lessons to be learned, namely once again that age matters in fantasy (Pavelski and Couture are both post-peak), as does the loss of a long-tenured member of a team (in this case, Patrick Marleau). But my thinking that the departure of Marleau would adversely affect San Jose’s PP turned out to be incorrect, as its PP conversion rate improved year-to-year.

3) Patrick Sharp will outpoint Alexander Radulov

Result = AIR BALL (Radulov more than tripled Sharp’s meager output – 72 points to only 21)

All I can say is when you aim for the fences, sometimes you not only swing and miss but also split your pants in the process. I was way off both in thinking Sharp could be resurrected in Chicago and Radulov would be a flop in Dallas. Instead, Sharp looked completely washed up, and Radulov – fat wallet notwithstanding – played his heart out and meshed well with Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn.

The lessons to be learned are that although some players can excel despite being older than 30, for the most part once an over 30 player starts to see his production wane it’s very difficult for it to bounce back. Exceptions can include a player who is plugged into a new, much different and reviving situation (like what’s occurred with Eric Staal in Minnesota) or one who is a truly generational talent (ala Jaromir Jagr for Florida in 2015-16).

With Radulov, chances are there won’t be too many directly analogous situations in the future, as normally players don’t head to the KHL for nearly a decade before returning to the NHL. But I suppose what I learned with him is you shouldn’t automatically assume players – even ones with enigmatic histories – are going to phone it in once they ink a lucrative deal.

There’s also a lesson here about coaches, as Ken Hitchcock had long been someone whose skaters underperformed due to his defense-first style. In fact, as I noted he had a previously unwavering track record of top players doing worse during his first year at the helm versus their previous season for the same team. However, I failed to give proper weight to the fact that in his later seasons in St. Louis he’d shown signs of refining his coaching style to embrace offense, plus he chose to come out of retirement to get back into coaching. So although a coach’s past tendencies merit consideration, don’t assume the worst, especially if there are signs to suggest the worst is no longer a likely outcome.

4) More than half of all teams will have a goalie appear in 60+ games

Result = MISS (only 12 teams had a goalie play in 60+ games)

When the dust settled, the number was essentially in line with previous seasons (the average had been 11.5 in the past six campaigns, with a high of 13 and a low of eight). What I overlooked is goalie injuries are real and strike starters every season. Plus, despite there being no Olympics and each team getting a week off, squads these days are simply choosing not to overwork their netminders.

I also fell into the trap of looking at non-predictive stats in a predictive way, most notably that in each of the past two seasons nine of the top ten netminders in terms of number of appearances were on squads that made it to the playoffs. Although a fact that wasn’t something which influenced whether a team would choose to play one of its goalies in 60+ games. This is in contrast with my correct prediction of 15 or more d-men scoring 50+ points, since that was based on observable trends and peak ages. Be sure not to fall into the same trap as me – forecasts need to be tied to predictive stats or trends, rather than hunches or – even if factual – non-predictive data.

The small saving grace in terms of this forecast was my added note that poolies shouldn’t expect to see more than the usual 5-8 goalies appear in 65+ games, as indeed the number was five.

5) Nikolaj Ehlers’ goal total will be higher than Justin Schultz’s point total

Result = HIT, but with an asterisk (Ehlers had more goals (29) than Schultz had points (27); however, had Schultz played in all 82 games and scored at the same pace his point total would’ve been 35)

I give myself credit for nailing that Schultz’s 2016-17 scoring pace would crater; however, I fell into the trap of putting Ehlers on an unrealistic fantasy pedestal. I figured if Ehlers performed as well as he did last season without any PP1 time, surely the team would opt to put him on PP1 and, between that and his natural career progression, the goals floodgate would open. But his PP1 time never materialized; and although he upped his goal total, it was only from 25 to 29.

So why is it that Schultz failed this season while Radulov succeeded, after both signed contracts in the offseason? For one, Radulov changed teams, which provides added motivation. Also, the concerning data I cited regarding Schultz in making this forecast (poor finish to last season; too much of his 2016-17 production tied to PPPts) was predictive, versus my “data” about Radulov being speculative. And although Kris Letang didn’t stand in the way of Schultz’s success as much as I figured, the fact that Letang was healthy for the entire season (and I’d noted that Letang had never failed to play 70+ games in two straight full seasons) did cast a shadow which hadn’t been there for much of 2016-17.

The major takeaway is that for every presumed breakout, only a few materialize. Also, no matter how talented a player – like Ehlers – might be on paper or in the minds of poolies, opportunity will have the most direct influence on whether (and, if so, the extent to which) a player actually breaks out.

6) Antti Raanta will finish in the top five in SV% among 40+ appearance netminders

Result = HIT (he finished first)

I’m especially proud of this forecast, not only because Raanta ended up being tops in the entire NHL among 40+ appearance goaltenders, but also because far more pundits jumped on the preseason bandwagon for Scott Darling, the other “graduating” back-up. Yet when the dust settled Darling was a major disappointment and Raanta was the best goalie in hockey once the calendar turned to 2018.

How did things go right for Raanta, but not Darling? For one, Raanta’s past data was culled from 94 career appearances (78 starts) spread over four seasons, compared to Darling’s 75 career games (64 started) in three seasons. Also, all of Darling’s games had been for the then powerhouse Blackhawks, who could make a netminder look better than he really is. Raanta, on the other hand, had played the past two seasons for the Rangers, who, although a playoff team, didn’t have as vaunted of a blueline as the Hawks did in the previous three seasons. Lastly, Darling walked into a situation where although it was presumed he’d be the #1 guy, Cam Ward was still lurking in the wings, whereas the Coyotes showed their commitment to Raanta by trading away Mike Smith and not re-signing Chad Johnson.

Also, this is another example of the stats I used to help make this forecast (i.e., only seven netminders since 2013-14 had both a better GAA and SV% than Raanta, and five had finished in the top five in SV% at least once during that span; although Arizona gives up lots of shots, Raanta had been among the best in EV SV%) being predictive stats. It also didn’t hurt that going into the season Raanta was set to be a UFA this summer; and even though many a player in that same situation has laid an egg, quite a few have found that to be added motivation to play even better than they might normally.

7) Alex Pietrangelo will outscore Zach Werenski by at least 15 points

Result = HIT (Pietrangelo tallied 54 points in 78 games, i.e., 17 more than Werenski’s 37 in 77 games)

This is another one of my prouder hits, what with Pietrangelo having outpointed Werenski by only one in 2016-17 and many going into the season touting Werenski as a young star on the rise. I saw things differently, and it turns out I was right both in terms of my prediction and my logic in making it.

What it boiled down to is Pietrangelo having more value than was evident from his 2016-17 season-long scoring, as he posted 18 points in 20 games once Mike Yeo stepped in as coach. Plus, although I noted above when referring to Ken Hitchcock that some coaches can and do indeed change their ways, Yeo’s MO of leaning heavily on one d-man is among the most well-established patterns in hockey. Between those two factors I saw bigger and better things from Pietrangelo, and sure enough he delivered despite a second and third quarter where he produced only 18 points in 35 games.

Meanwhile, working against Werenski was the cloud of the dreaded defenseman sophomore slump. But even beyond that there was the objective reality that Seth Jones was quietly emerging as “the guy” in Columbus in the last quarter of 2016-17. So just as Pietrangelo’s late season trends were key, so too were those happening in Columbus.

The major takeaway here is to be careful not to value players based solely on season-long totals. Also, don’t be sucked into thinking every upstart player is on a fast track to becoming a phenom, especially if they have other at least equally talented players breathing down their necks.

8) Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will combine to score fewer than 160 points

Result = MISS (they raised their combined total from 177 in 2016-17 to 178, although Draisaitl did see a decline in production)

My reasoning in making this forecast was Edmonton needing to focus on being a more all-around team in order to mount a serious challenge for the Cup. But a funny thing happened – the Oilers didn’t come close to qualifying for the playoffs. So once the season was a lost cause, McDavid, who actually stood at a not so jaw dropping 69 points in 58 games, went into beast mode over the last quarter of the season (39 points in his final 24 games).

But in truth, my basing the forecast on the Oilers being a lock for the playoffs is less of an excuse for me missing this prediction and more of a flaw in the prediction itself, since yet again it was an example of a forecast being made on an assumption rather than on sound, predictive logic. There was some solace to be found in that Draisaitl’s production fell, in part because the Oilers did indeed separate the two more so than last season. Even still, Draisaitl showed he can produce in his own right, and had the team’s PP clicked at anything close to a normal rate this would’ve been a huge miss.

Thus, again the takeaway is to base forecasts on predictive factors, not assumptions. And especially not multilayered and convoluted assumptions, as doing so amounts fantasy FPS, with the FPS standing for “fancy play syndrome.” Although in competitive leagues you do have to outthink your opponents in order to prevail, what that means is thinking smarter, not necessarily thinking fancier or using layer upon layer of non-predictive logic to reach a flawed conclusion.

9) Peter Budaj will start more games for the Lightning than Andrei Vasilevskiy

Result = AIR BALL (Vas started 64 games, tied for fourth most among all NHL netminders)

Technically Budaj got hurt and missed three months; but even a healthy Budaj would’ve done nothing to derail Vasilevskiy’s superb season. I still think my reasoning wasn’t entirely flawed – I just mistook the Bolts bringing in Budaj as a lack of confidence in Vas, when in truth it was as an insurance policy. What this also underscored (as did St. Louis continuing to turn to Jake Allen, even amid a superb season from Cater Hutton) is golden boy goalies will get every chance to succeed before being pushed out of the picture even temporarily. Or to put it another way, there are just some situations where a back-up will always stay in that role no matter how well he plays and/or how poorly the starter fares.

What factors can exist which suggest a starter might be vulnerable to losing his gig as the #1 guy, other than via injury? Contract status, including seasons he’s signed for and money he earns, is probably the #1 factor. There’s also the past glory factor, which some could argue led to Cam Ward staying the starter or at least remaining in the starter picture for as long as he has in Carolina, despite his Stanley Cup winning season now being more than ten seasons ago. But there’s also the flip side to that, namely the “young phenom” factor, where a young anointed starter stays in that role even if/as he falters. Another factor is playoff experience, since if a back-up has never even tasted playoff action or not met with success, it’ll be more difficult for him to supplant a starter despite stellar play. The converse also holds true, where a starter who has a superb playoff record is more likely to keep his gig even if he’s being outplayed by a back-up in the regular season, to help him work out any kinks before the second season.

10) The Winnipeg Jets will score the most goals of any NHL team

Result = CLOSE CALL (their goals improved by more than 10% from 246 to 273, finishing second in the league, up from seventh last season but nevertheless behind league leading Tampa Bay)

My logic was sound, but in the end Tampa gelled even more. What are the takeaways? If a team – like the Jets – has a mix of veterans who always produce, players already in or just now entering their peak, plus young talent who could break out, chances are they’ll be a success offensively, especially if – as I noted – their previous season’s PP clicked at what looked to be a lower rate that it should’ve.

I was also correct they’d pass all six teams who finished ahead of them in goals last season. What that means it it’s equally important to examine which teams might see their offense falter and why (whether due to too many older player, having overachieved the prior season, trying to become a more balanced team in order to be built for the playoffs, etc.).

11) A Carolina forward will score 75+ points

Result = MISS (Sebastian Aho scored at a 68 point pace – highest among any Hurricane player)

I think I bought into offseason hype, as nearly all pundits had Carolina as a breakout team in the East. In doing so, I failed to account for the fact that no Hurricane forward last season topped even 2:16 per game on the PP or 17:05 non-shorthanded minutes under the same coach who’d be at the helm for 2017-18. Simply put, those are not normally the kind of conditions which will lead to a player topping 75 points, no matter how skilled he might be.

So this wasn’t a case of using non-predictive stats in a predictive way, or fantasy FPS. It simply boiled down to ignoring reality and deployment, and the limitations those create on scoring for even the most already talented or up and coming hockey players. Whether in making predictions like these or simply valuing players in general, you have to look under the hood at teams/coaches to see if their ice time philosophy is one that will make it plausible for 75+ point scoring to occur.

12) Milan Lucic will score fewer than 40 points

Result = HIT (he finished with a mere 34 points)

While it wasn’t exactly rocket science to predict that Lucic might not shine for the Oilers this season, to have predicted a drop below 40 points was indeed bold, as not only did he finish with 50 last season he’d only once been below the 50 point mark since 2008-09 and had topped 55 in three of the previous four full campaigns. He also had a big fat contract that seemingly guaranteed he’d get prime minutes with top tier linemates.

But the key in making my prediction is sometimes those things simply aren’t enough to ensure a player can produce. Beyond that, some rough-and-tumble, fire-in-the-belly players seem more vulnerable to slowing down even in their 20s, especially after signing big contracts. That’s not always the case, but it’s something that occurs often enough to warrant concern and attention when drafting and valuing those types of players.

13) Alexander Wennberg will finish within the top three among NHL forwards in assists

Result = AIR BALL (Wennberg’s production dropped like a stone, and he had fewer assists on a per game basis than he did not only last year but two seasons ago)

My mistake here was in looking at stats in a vacuum and failing to fully consider both circumstances and players, plus putting too much weight on the “magical fourth year” factor. Wennberg did have strong numbers trending in a direction that suggested he would do even better for 2017-18; however, much of those numbers were due to him being a #1 center more by default than by design, and also by virtue of him having been deployed with less talented players, ala Brandon Saad and Nick Foligno. Essentially, Wennberg had been functioning as a placeholding top line pivot and, once displaced from that role by Pierre-Luc Dubois, saw his stats come back to earth with a crashing thud.

So how can one avoid making the mistake(s) I did? Focus on depth charts and see if a player’s success is occurring because of a situation which is on tap to change, rather than due to his own pure talent.

14) No player from the Metropolitan Division will have more goals than Anders Lee

Result = MISS (Lee did finish with the third most goals in the Metropolitan Division, but a total of nine behind Alex Ovechkin)

Although Lee finished well behind Ovi, I still feel pretty good about this forecast. After all, Lee improved from fourth to third in the division, and his goals per game rate increased from an already high 0.42 to an even greater 0.487. Not bad for someone many had pegged for regression this season due to his lack of proven track record and 17.8% personal shooting percentage in 2016-17.

My logic was sound too, in surmising that Lee would see more PP Time, plus I correctly noted that his chemistry with John Tavares would lead to those two staying together. Those, plus Tavares’ motivation to score both in general and due to his impending UFA payday, would only help Lee’s role as a sniper.

15) Neither Jake Guentzel nor Conor Sheary will outscore Evander Kane

Result = HIT (Kane finished with 54 points in 78 games, versus 48 points in 82 games for Guentzel and 30 points in 79 games for Sheary)

I nailed this one both in terms of result and reasoning. Say what you want about Kane – and there’s plenty you could say – but when push came to shove in terms of playing for his NHL future he appeared in a career high 77 games and posted his second highest point total. Coincidence? Nope. Let this be another lesson to never underestimate how well one can suddenly play when a paycheck is at stake.

As for Guentzel and Sheary, my key logic was that neither would find room on PP1, as Patric Hornqvist might not be as “sexy” of a fantasy name these days, but he’s an all-important “mule” for a Pens top unit, leaving the more diminutive Sheary and Guentzel with PP2 scraps. Couple that with the reality of many productive rookies – including on the Pens – not living up to the hype when it came to their sophomore season, and it shows that poolies should not ignore the dynamics of the squad a skater plays for and longstanding team dynamics that have met with success and thus unlikely to be rethought.

* * *

The final tally was six Hits, one Close Call, and three Air Balls, which, considering these were “fearless” forecasts, is a pretty solid result and an improvement over last season. How did you fare in your voting? The five “Hits” finished second, third, fourth, tied for fifth, also tied for fifth, and 12th in your votes, with the Close Call finishing first. So hopefully you followed your instincts, since they were pretty solid!

I hope you enjoyed reading the original forecasts and this look back in review, and as had as much fun as I did along the way. But let’s not lose sight of key fantasy lessons we learned from (or were underscored by) these forecasts. With a stick tap to Tom Collins and his weekly column, here’s a rundown of the top 10 (in no particular order) takeaways:

1) When making forecasts, you’ll tend to succeed more (or fail less) if you base them on predictive data as opposed to speculative or coincidental data.

2) Don’t underestimate the motivation for players to suddenly step up when they need to earn a UFA contract, and by the same token for players without a solid track record to come back to earth with a crashing thud once they get paid.

3) Age matters in fantasy hockey, and peak ages for forwards, defensemen, and goalies are important. But there can and will be variations, with some staying productive for atypically longer but others (especially rough and tumble players) not only entering their post peak earlier but seeing their scoring drop more precipitously.

4) Beware of players who could be doing situationally – and, thus, temporarily – well, rather than as a result of pure talent.

5) Tandem chemistry should always be factored into player value, especially the lesser value player.

6) Winning in fantasy is indeed based on using sound logic and outthinking your opponent; but beware of falling into the trap of “fancy play syndrome,” where you get too clever for your own good and end up making unsound decisions.

7) Late-season trends should be given added weight over season-long trends provided that the late season trends better represent what will likely be the “new normal” for the affected player(s).

8) Buying into hype is dangerous, since it often means paying an inflated price and then having to hope the hype is real just to “break even” in terms of value given what you paid.

9) Making predictions for goalies is extra tough because of the team influence factor; about the only sure bets are goalie injuries will always happen and “golden boys” will get a much longer leash.

10) When teams are jumping aboard trends (like 1D on a PP1), factor that into your ratings but don’t go too overboard since you never know when winds might change or shift direction.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/cage-match/15-fearless-forecasts-for-2017-18-results-and-lessons-learned/

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usatrendingsports · 6 years

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Re-seeding the Candy 16: Kentucky not prime 10 amongst 2018 NCAA Match survivors

Precise seed: No. 1 within the East Regional. Not a lot an argument in opposition to the 32-Four Wildcats. They’re one in all two No. 1 seeds left within the discipline. They rank as the highest crew in within the discipline in each mainstream metric. Their offensive effectivity is first in school basketball. They’ve 4 future NBA gamers, not less than, and are loaded with veterans. That is the very best crew within the sport nonetheless eligible to win the 2018 nationwide title. It additionally has the best ground of any of the 16 groups. You’ll have to beat Villanova as a result of it is not going to beat itself. It flicked away Radford after which made putty of Alabama within the first weekend. 2

Precise seed: No. 2 within the Midwest Regional. The Blue Devils (28-7) performed in Pittsburgh the primary weekend, proper there with Villanova, and appeared simply nearly as good. The Blue Devils need to be No. 2 in seed at this level. Their zone protection is paying dividends a lot as a rule. The bigs (Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter) are in a groove. Grayson Allen’s not enjoying persistently effectively however he’s nonetheless doing much more than what we noticed early within the season. Trevon Duval confronted a guard-heavy URI crew and had just one turnover. Rams coach Dan Hurley mentioned Duke seems to be prefer it has 5 first spherical picks. It is not as reliable as Villanova, nevertheless it’s equally as harmful. Three

Precise seed: No. 1 within the Midwest Regional. The Jayhawks obtained previous Penn, 76-60, then held off Seton Corridor, 73-69. The Penn sport was shut for 3 quarters of it. KU at No. Three is a season-long view of this crew. It is 29-7 and has crushed plenty of good golf equipment. It is nonetheless one of the crucial flawed Kansas groups of the previous 10 years, but the resume is just too good to drop KU decrease than third at this level. Devonte’ Graham is beneath Participant of the Yr consideration right here at CBS Sports activities. Malik Newman’s efficiency vs. Seton Corridor was precisely what the Jayhawks must make it to San Antonio. Udoka Azubuike combating via damage was additionally spectacular. Four

Precise seed: No. 2 within the East Regional. The Boilermakers could be third if not for the elbow problem with Isaac Haas. Purdue (30-6) stays my nationwide champion choose; I believe it is obtained the shooters to go all the way in which. Matt Painter’s crew is the No. 2 Three-point taking pictures crew and No. 2 offense in school basketball. Matt Haarms is studying on the job, although. The wavy-haired freshman performed a season-high 29 minutes vs. Purdue on Sunday. That Butler sport was shut nevertheless it by no means appeared like Purdue was in bother. Vincent Edwards is due for a giant second this Friday vs. Texas Tech, I believe. 5

Precise seed: No. Three within the East Regional. This crew is stuffed with veteran athletic expertise. And it is obtained a freshman in Zhaire Smith who is likely one of the finest dunkers within the sport. The East is clearly the strongest area at this level. Three of the highest 5 groups are enjoying in Boston this weekend. The Purple Raiders are 26-9 and have sprung again after dropping 4 of their last 5 common season video games. TTU has wins over 4 Candy 16 groups: Kansas, Kansas State, West Virginia and Nevada. It is obtained the No. Four-ranked per possession offense. Chris Beard’s guys are higher than individuals are giving them credit score for, nonetheless, and might completely head dwelling to Texas for the Closing 4. 6

Precise seed: No. Four within the West Regional. Now at 32-Four, the Bulldogs are poised to make back-to-back Closing Fours due to a West Regional that is damaged their means. To suppose, this was going to be a down 12 months for the Zags. Hardly. They’ve validated their No. 6 slot not on with the win complete and victories this season over match groups Ohio State, Texas and Creighton, but additionally as a result of their tight wins over UNC Greensboro and Ohio State introduced out why this program is sweet 12 months after 12 months. Zach Norvell Jr. had 28 in opposition to the Buckeyes — a season-high. It photographs 59 % from 2 and is not turnover-prone. The favourite in Los Angeles to get to San Antonio. 7

Precise seed: No. Three within the West Regional. If the Zags do not win the West, Michigan most likely will. The Wolverines are fortunate to be right here; they’d no enterprise profitable that sport vs. Houston on Saturday. However right here they’re. The highest-ranked protection left within the discipline is driving excessive after Jordan Poole’s tournament-saving shot. Watch it once more. That will get higher each time. When it initially occurred I did not suppose it was a top-20 buzzer beater in match historical past. I believe I’ve modified my thoughts on that. Total, Michigan’s gained 11 straight. The protection is the explanation. From a resume perspective, owns wins over match groups Texas, Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State and UCLA. eight

Precise seed: No. 5 within the East Regional. The very fact I’ve the Mountaineers eighth has me doubting myself. WVU was a half-trendy upset choose in opposition to Murray State. It gained 85-68. Then some questioned if Marshall might loopy it up in opposition to the Mountaineers. The ultimate: 94-71. Whereas “Press Virginia” will get plenty of chatter for its protection, the reality is that this crew has been higher with the ball than with out it this season. It beat Virginia this season, one in all solely three groups to take action. It’s within the prime half of the remaining 16 groups. Senior level guard Jevon Carter is just not going out quietly. 9

Precise seed: No. 11 within the South Regional. At 30-5 with wins over Florida, Miami and Tennessee, the Ramblers are rapidly shifting from Cinderella story to bona fide Closing 4 consideration. Porter Moser’s crew ranks within the prime 15 in 2-point and Three-point discipline aim share. Clayton Custer is the proper level guard for this method. You’ll be able to’t actually phony your option to 30 wins when you come from the Missouri Valley. Sister Jean is the most important story with the Ramblers, however I believe there’s extra to return with this crew. Custer hit a winner and so did Donte Ingram. Who’s subsequent up? Junior guard Marques Townes, your quantity might be subsequent. 10

Precise seed: No. 7 within the South Regional. No crew had a nuttier opening weekend the Nevada, which did not miss a discipline aim in OT in opposition to Texas, a sport it most likely should not have gained, after which rallied from 22 right down to beat Cincinnati. The 29-7 Wolf Pack have common season wins over tourney groups Radford, Rhode Island, San Diego State and Davidson. Caleb and Cody Martin transferred from NC State and have clearly made the correct selection. Nevada’s achieved this with out level guard Lindsey Drew. Spectacular run. This was the very best crew within the Mountain West. 11

Precise seed: No. 5 within the South Regional. Suppose UK is just too low? For reference, it ranks because the 10th finest crew of the 16 left at KenPom. The 26-10 Wildcats being 11th right here speaks to how tight this discipline is between No. Four and No. 12. Kentucky obtained a scare from Davidson after which ran away from Buffalo. John Calipari’s squad has been capable of win all however one sport previously month as a result of its Three-point protection is the very best of any crew within the discipline. UK holds foes to 29.eight % taking pictures from past the arc. Common season wins over match groups: Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee. 12

Precise seed: No. 5 within the Midwest Regional. Tigers followers, I’ve obtained your crew this low due to the damage to Donte Grantham. By 19 video games Clemson was 16-Three. Since then it is 9-6. A good rating. However I’ll give credit score to how effectively Clemson appeared over the weekend. I believed New Mexico State would win with some consolation in opposition to the Tigers. Nah. Clemson took it 79-68. Then it destroyed — I imply, burned and buried — Auburn, 84-53. Wins over the sphere embrace Ohio State, Florida, Miami and North Carolina. 13

Precise seed: No. 7 within the West Regional. From preseason SEC favourite to mid-season letdown to probably the most spectacular crew within the first weekend of the match. Contemplating the opponents, the Aggies come out on prime for me. Now at 22-12, Billy Kennedy’s crew will face Michigan within the midst of its strongest stretch of the season. West Virginia, Buffalo, Missouri, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky and Alabama all fell to this crew this season. However there are 12 losses too. 14

Precise seed: No. 9 within the West Regional: Properly, let’s tackle this:

Shouts to anybody who really picks Florida State to win an NCAA Match sport. Seminoles— dangerous non-con slate and all—most likely make the sphere even with a tough L right here. For me, that crew is as meh because it will get for major-conference at-large filler.

— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) March 7, 2018

I tweeted that after FSU fell within the ACC match however was nonetheless going to make it into the NCAAs. To me, the Seminoles did not look geared up to win a sport, actually not two. Yeah, besides now that is simply what they’ve achieved. At 22-11, FSU obtained by No.1 Xavier due to a 12-point comeback within the last 10 minutes. But I am nonetheless not bought on this crew all that a lot. Nothing private. It is not top-30 in offensive or defensive effectivity. It gained at Florida, however apart from that, did not beat a match crew in non-con play. However it does have two wins vs. groups nonetheless within the discipline. FSU wanted three complete overtimes to beat Syracuse and Clemson at dwelling.

Precise seed: No. 9 within the South Regional. This is the place we hit the drop-off. I am rating Ok-State 15 as an alternative of 16 as a result of Dean Wade mentioned he expects to play in Thursday’s sport in opposition to Kentucky in Atlanta. Bruce Weber is within the fourth Candy 16 of his life. The final time he was there was with Illinois in 2005, en path to the nationwide title sport. This is why Ok-State cannot be ranked greater: It did not beat one crew in non-conference play that made the NCAAs. Within the Large 12, it went Zero-7 in opposition to the three finest groups, that are all nonetheless alive: Kansas, West Virginia and Texas Tech. 16

Precise seed: No. 11 within the Midwest Regional. At 23-13, the Orange are the straightforward choose to convey up the caboose. They have probably the most losses of any crew within the Candy 16. They have been the ultimate crew within the discipline on Choice Sunday. Jim Boeheim has mentioned this crew is not nice. However that zone is befuddling and could be a hex on sure groups within the match. The Orange held off Arizona State 60-56 within the First 4. Then they quietly ended sixth-seeded TCU’s season 57-52. Towards Michigan State, SU appeared prefer it had a spell on Sparty. A hideous 55-53 win. The way you make a Candy 16 averaging 57 factors, and scoring fewer factors with every opponent being harder than the final, is a thriller. Buffalo, Virginia Tech, Miami and Clemson are this crew’s common season wins over match competitors. Now comes Duke, which held the Orange to a season-low 44 factors in February.

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meanwhileinoz · 6 years

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Week 14 Highs & Lows: Eagles’ NFC East title comes at major cost, Seahawks behave poorly in Jacksonville

The playoffs drew a little closer this past weekend with several teams solidifying their place in the hunt for the postseason, but the Eagles and Seahawks suffered significant hits to their Lombardi Trophy dreams.

Here is a look at the highs and lows of a fun weekend in the NFL:

Highs

3. Bills and Colts play Snow Bowl

BuffaloBills.com

It’s not always fun to watch football in poor weather, especially in the rain. A slick football and wet conditions often make the experience a miserable one. However, there is something special about football in the snow. The Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills took the field in a snow storm on Sunday afternoon, providing a spectacle for anyone tuning in live or following on social media.

The conditions were so poor that the two teams combined for only 161 passing yards between three quarterbacks.

Instead, the Colts and Bills transported the sport back 80 years into history. Together, they rushed 97 times for 390 yards, including 156 rushing yards from Bills running back LeSean McCoy.

This type of game isn’t something we’d enjoy every week, but as a novelty, it was a blast.

2. No surrender from the Dolphins

Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Dolphins’ slim postseason hopes hinged on somehow beating the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots on Monday night. Unbelievably, they did in rather dominant fashion.

The Dolphins held future Hall of Famer Tom Brady to 24 of 43 passing for 233 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Meanwhile, the Dolphins run defense bottled up the Patriots’ rushing attack for only 25 yards on 10 carries.

Miami turned in their performance of the year on primetime television against one of the best teams in the NFL. If they can stay in the race a little longer in the rather weak AFC, they should be interesting to watch.

1. Eagles and Rams deliver instant classic

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The Philadelphia Eagles entered Week 14 coming off a troubling 24-10 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. If they had any hope of finishing with the number one seed, they had to beat the Los Angeles Rams.

Meanwhile, the Rams needed to beat the Eagles to maintain a cushion over the Seahawks in the NFC West and take control of a bye. The showdown between the league’s two highest scoring teams proved to be the classic it was billed to be.

The Eagles controlled much of the first half, heading into the break with a 24-14 lead. Los Angeles responded with their normal third quarter charge, scoring two touchdowns in 94 seconds to take a 28-24 lead. The two teams battled it out for the remainder of the game in a tough, physical war, eventually resulting in a 43-35 Eagles victory.

The NFL once put on shows like this all the time. Great football between good teams. Instead, we’ve been subjected to plenty of silly controversies and horrible injuries this season. Hopefully, the NFL gets past its current struggles and takes its fans back to a day when football was a getaway for its fans.

Lows

3. More stupid behavior

Phelan M. Ebenhack/The Associated Press

The Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars engaged in some extracurricular activities at the end of their game on Sunday.

With a loss nearly in the books, Seahawks defensive tackle Michael Bennett dove at Jaguars center Brandon Linder’s legs. This set off a melee between the two teams that eventually moved to the stands

Let’s be real about this. Behavior like Bennett’s and the other players involved continues to be a black eye for the league. Bennett’s decision to dive at a player’s legs was done on purpose and only serves to do one thing: harm another player. Nonetheless, as of this writing, the NFL did not suspend him or anyone else involved.

What will it take for the NFL to be consistent when holding players accountable when they behave poorly? Bennett should be suspended, and he’s not the only member of the Seahawks that should after that game.

On top of that, the loss puts Seattle, a preseason Super Bowl favorite, in danger of missing the postseason altogether.

2. Time to move on, Cincinnati

CBS Sports

The Cincinnati Bengals’ struggles this season have been well-documented. Unfortunately, the team put those struggles on full display in an embarrassing 33-7 loss to the Chicago Bears.

Quarterback Andy Dalton completed only 14 of 29 passes for 141 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Star wide receiver A.J. Green caught five passes for 64 yards, but Dalton targeted him 12 times. Meanwhile, the now 4-9 Chicago Bears rushed for 232 yards, and quarterback Mitch Trubisky produced one of his best days as a rookie (278 yards).

What has happened to the Bengals? This franchise is littered with stars. The talent is there for the Bengals to compete for a division title, but the only team they seem able to handle is the Cleveland Browns.

I defended Marvin Lewis for years. He remains one of the best coaches in the NFL. However, it’s time for a change in Cincinnati. Lewis has lost the team. It’s clear now more than ever.

1. Another devastating injury

Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Eagles second-year quarterback Carson Wentz tore his ACL in the victory over the Rams. Wentz was on his way to a Pro Bowl and possibly an MVP season prior to the injury. Now the Eagles must find their way to the Super Bowl without the centerpiece of their offense. Wentz’s injury casts another shadow over a sport hit hard by devastating injuries in 2017.

JUST IN: Steelers coach Mike Tomlin wants Pittsburgh to embrace facing Patriots

Related TopicsBearsBengalsBillsCarson WentzColtsDolphinsEagleshigh and lowsJaguarsMichael BennettPatriotsRamsSeahawksSnow Bowl

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flauntpage · 7 years

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DGB Grab Bag: Toews Still getting Trolled, and a Gretzky was Overpaid Take

Three stars of comedy

The third star: Kris Versteeg's ongoing Instagram war against Jonathan Toews – It's been going on for months now—you can get caught up here—and honestly at this point it's just short of outright bullying. But when you're one of the best 100 players in NHL history, I'm guessing you can take it.

The second star: Sharks twitter—Hey look, they'd like to make a harmless joke. Jokes are fun, right?

Not bad, guys! But be careful, you're going after the Golden Knights and lately they've been kind of feisty so you might want to watch out for…

Good lord, guys. This was basically the Twitter equivalent of that time Slava Fetisov came after Wendel Clark. It's not even preseason, maybe hold off on the kill shots until camp open.The first star: Artemi Panarin's bread shoes—Absolutely no idea what's happening here, but what the hell.

The NHL actually got something right

This week, we learned that the NHL is making an important change to its video review challenge rules. For offside reviews, an incorrect challenge will now result in a team taking a two-minute penalty. Presumably, the penalty will be for delay of game, the same call that's already on the books for teams that unsuccessfully challenge for an illegal stick.

In other words, they're going to start doing it the way they should have been all along. As listeners to the Biscuits hockey podcast already know, this is the solution I've been suggesting all season. It just makes too much sense. The offside review might be fine in concept, but there are way too many of them. Coaches were calling for reviews on anything remotely close, and rightly so, since the reward for being right dwarfed the cost of being wrong.

The reward still dwarfs the cost—taking a goal off the board is such a big deal in a low-scoring league that there's really no way to change that—and if coaches were purely rational then this might not change much. But pro sports coaches aren't purely rational. If they were, they'd pull goalies earlier, bunt less, and go for it on fourth down more. Coaches like to cover their own behinds, and now they know that if they're wrong on an offisde challenge and it costs their team a power play goal, they'll take the blame. The NHL has basically found a way to turn a league full of conservative coaches' risk-aversion against them. It's beautiful.

Now, maybe you'd have liked to see them go even further. It would have been nice to see them fix those infuriating "skate in the air" calls, and putting some sort of stricter time limit on making challenges would also have been good. The rule change will only impact offside reviews and not goalie interference, so maybe it doesn't go far enough. Or maybe you'd like to see them just scrap offside review altogether, because as we've covered here before, the "just get it right at all costs" argument is deeply flawed.

But the bigger point is that the league made a genuine improvement to a rule that desperately needed it. These days, we'll take our wins where we can get them.

(And hey NHL, while you're stealing my ideas: About that Jagr draft…)

Obscure former player of the week

Matt Duchene will never be traded. It doesn't matter if he refuses to report to camp, as now seems possible. It doesn't matter if more teams get into the bidding. It doesn't matter if the Avalanche are in or out of the playoff race. We will all live and then we will die and then the sun will explode and consume the earth and then Joe Sakic will still be waiting for the Islanders to throw in another draft pick.

So since nobody will ever be traded for Duchene, today's obscure player is a guy who was once traded for a Duchesne. And also a Dufresne. It's as close as we're ever going to get, people. This week's player is Igor Kravchuk.

Kravchuk was a Soviet defenseman who was picked by the Blackhawks in the fourth round of the 1991 draft. He was already 24 at the time, and had won gold at the 1988 Olympics; he would arrive in Chicago shortly after winning another gold as part of the Unified Team at the 1992 tournament. He scored a goal in his first NHL game by stealing the puck from Bob Probert, and somehow lived to tell the tale.

He lasted about a year in Chicago before he was dealt to Edmonton for Joe Murphy, whose name does not sound like Duchene. But after three years with the Oilers, including a 50-point season 1993-94, he was traded to St. Louis for Donald Dufresne. And a year after that the Blues flipped him to the Senators for Steve Duchesne.

He made his only all-star appearance for Ottawa in 1998, and later that year he scored the empty net goal that sealed the Senators' upset playoff win over the Devils. He'd have quick stints with the Flames and Panthers before ending his NHL run in 2003, at the age of 36.

All in all, he had a pretty solid career. And yet his most famous hockey moment came long before he ever arrived on the NHL scene. In 1987, he was a 20-year-old youngster on the powerhouse Soviet team at the Canada Cup when coach Viktor Tikhonov decided to send him out to face the Wayne Gretzky/Mario Lemieux line in the deciding game's final minutes. You probably remember how that turned out. That's Kravchuk making one of the worst pinches in hockey history to set up the 3-on-1 that ends with Lemieux's winning goal.

And yet he still went on to a long and successful career. See? People make sometimes mistakes, and it's not the end of the world. Somebody send that clip to Joe Sakic.

Outrage of the week

The issue: This week, the NHL (along with the NHLPA and several other hockey organizations) unveiled what they're calling a Declaration of Principles.

The outrage: [everyone's eyes instantly roll into the back of their heads while making slot machine noises] Is it justified: You can find the entire list of principles here. It's basically a laundry list of things the league claims to believe are fundamental concepts for the hockey community, including delivering "a positive family experience" while providing "a safe, positive and inclusive environment".

Those sounds like good things, because they are. And even though there's clearly a healthy dose of public relations behind all this—the league even included a letter of endorsement from the pope—the league deserves some credit here. These days, we could apparently all use the occasional reminder not to be completely horrible to each other, so seeing the NHL put its name on this sort of initiative is a positive. That entitles them to some goodwill.

What it doesn't entitle them to is any sort of benefit of the doubt that they'll actually deliver on any of this, and that's where the rest of us come in. It's no secret that the NHL has been decidedly hit-and-miss over the years in living up to the sort of standards they laid out this week. They're certainly not alone in that regard, but the fact remains that there's plenty of room for improvement on the part of the NHL, its teams, and just about everyone involved with the league, including the media. Declaring your principles is nice, but it would be foolish for fans to pat the NHL on the back and call it mission accomplished based on a slick media event and a press release.

That said, that doesn't mean we write this off as one big public relations charade and ignore it. Even if most of the principles read as merely aspirational right now, that still has value. There's something to be said for putting your goals out there in writing for the world to see.

At the very least, if the NHL and its clubs go right back to business as usual, fans will no longer have to resort to vague complaints about how the league should do better. They'll have something concrete to point to.

That's worth something. Exactly how much remains to be seen, and nobody should go into this with unrealistic expectations. But the league made progress this week, even if all they did was make it easier to hold them to a higher standard.

Classic YouTube clip breakdown

he Edmonton Oilers have had a busy summer, one that saw them sign two players to massive extensions: Connor McDavid's $100-million extension, and a $68-million deal for Leon Draisaitl. Both contracts spurred plenty of debate, with some seeing the deals as the cost of doing business in today's NHL while others argued that McDavid or (especially) Draisaitl would be overpaid.

Time will tell whether either player can earn their paychecks. But in the meantime, let's travel back to 1982 for an old-school salary debate featuring an Edmonton Oilers star. And I do mean old school…

So it's January 21, 1982, and there's big news in the hockey world. Wayne Gretzky has just torn up his contract with Peter Pocklington and the Edmonton Oilers to sign a brand new deal, and it's a doozy. Gretzky has just become the highest-paid player in NHL history, thanks to a 21-year contract that will pay him more than $20 million. With bonus clauses, he could make that much in just the first 15 years of the deal.

Yes, that's right, Wayne Gretzky is going to make a little over $1 million a year, and we're not sure he's worth it. He's in the middle of a 92-goal, 212-point season, in case you're wondering. Hockey economics were a little bit different in the early 80s.

We're watching the CBC nightly news, and we get a truncated introduction to the story, at which point we cut to the debate portion of the program. Our clip features three giants of Canadian media: CBC newscaster Barbara Frum, journalist Peter Gzowski, and the undisputed star of the piece: legendary curmudgeon Dick Beddoes.

I'm not sure how widely known Beddoes was outside of Ontario, so let me try to prepare you for what you're about to see. OK, imagine Don Cherry. Now imagine he was better dressed, crankier, and the sort of newspaper veteran who did all his interviews next to an old typewriter. That's Dick Beddoes. He was the best.

Frum introduces our two debaters, and we're off to the races. Beddoes comes out strong, playing the "every modern player is terrible" card. It's a strong old-guy opinion, especially when he calls Gretzky a "hairy-legged hockey player from Brantford, Ontario." Let's see how Gzowski responds.

"His legs aren't very hairy, Dick." OK, that's a sentence I didn't think I'd have to type today, but here we are.

Gzowski, playing the role of the bearded voice of reason, makes the seemingly uncontroversial point that Gretzky is the best hockey player in the world, at which point Beddoes interrupts to disagree, throwing some shade at Gzowski's book in the process. So who is the best player? None other than Russian winger Sergei Shepelev, who's coming off a 28-goal season with Moscow Spartak and had recently starred at the 1981 Canada Cup. For what it's worth, Shepelev never made it over to the NHL, but he was good. Not Gretzky-good, but he was fine.

Also, he's currently a coach in the KHL, and I feel pretty safe assuming that he's better than Gretzky was at coaching. Maybe that's what Beddoes meant.

I'm 100 percent going to spend the rest of the day practicing Beddoes's deadpan "You're joking, of course" comeback in the mirror.

Gzowski hasn't exactly shown up to this fight without any ammo, and he calls Beddoes "a well-dressed sourpuss in Hamilton, Ontario.. Man, that phrase started off as kind of a compliment and then got progressively meaner as it went.

Beddoes makes it clear that he just needs to see a little more from Gretzky. How much more? Oh, maybe "15 or 30 years like Gordie Howe". That seems reasonable. What's next, a Phantom Joe Malone take?

Beddoes calls this "a diluted era of hockey", which makes him sounds pretty reasonable, and then mentions being a part-owner of the 1980s Maple Leafs, which does not.

Frum cuts in to try to get things back on track. And yes, if the name sounds familiar to you Americans, she is the mother of that guy you currently have deeply conflicted feelings about on Twitter. She wants to know how the finances are going to work for Peter Pocklington and the Oilers.

Gzowski's answer doesn't include the phrase "Pocklington will just sell him in seven years so none of this will matter," so his answer was wrong. But Beddoes quickly jumps in anyway, pointing out that Gretzky "has got more money than Poland." Is that offensive? I feel like that might have been offensive in 1982, but I'm going to need to go to the replay review to be sure.

We briefly get to the small matter of this whole contract being nonsense, which is why you've never heard of it until just now. Back then, NHL contracts could be renegotiated at any time, and that happened with Gretzky several times over his career. This 21-year deal lasted a few seasons and that was it.

Gzowski lays out the argument for Gretzky's drawing power, including a nice little shot at Detroit as a hockey market. Then we move on to Frum pointing out that Gretzky has just recently scored his infamous 50 goals in 39 games. Surely even Beddoes has to admit that's impressive, right?

"What I want from him, if we're going to make comparisons, is that he might score some year 44 goals in 20 games, like the late Phantom Joe Malone did in 1918…He hasn't done that." I love Dick Beddoes so much.

We close out with Beddoes arguing that Gretzky—who again, is in the middle of a 212-point season—couldn't make third-string center on the 1947 Maple Leafs. Gzowski tries to respond with a quote from Rocket Richard, but Beddoes fires back with a fake French accent that causes Frum to put an end to things with the same "OK you two" rejoinder of a mom who's just walked in on her two children setting the basement on fire.

And that does it for our clip. As it turns out, Gretzky was indeed worth the money, as seven more Hart Trophies and four Stanley Cups would attest. Will McDavid and Draisaitl be able to do the same? It's still early, and old-school Beddoes types won't like to hear it, but there's every indication that the modern Oilers could end up being just as good if not better than they were in Gretzky's years.

I'm joking, of course.

Have a question, suggestion, old YouTube clip, or anything else you'd like to see included in this column? Email Sean at [email protected] .

DGB Grab Bag: Toews Still getting Trolled, and a Gretzky was Overpaid Take published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

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