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megacircuit9universe · 4 years

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Bonus Cards & Relative Charisma

WED JAN 01 20

As I write, I’m getting into the second hour of 2020, and the 2020s.

I hope everybody had a quasi-religious orbital completion time.

It’s January now, and starting tomorrow, business as usual will slowly begin to gain steam... before a weekend... and then, come the 7th, congress will be back in session, and the main focus of the news will be Impeachment... and the Iowa Caucuses... coming on February 4th.

Putting the former to the side, for today, I want to take a look at the race for the Democratic nomination that will be going on for the next six months.

Right now, the top three candidates are, Biden, Sanders, and Warren.

One thing is certain, and it’s that Bernie Sanders will still be there when it gets down to just two. The question is... will it be between him and Biden, or him and Elizabeth Warren.

My prediction today, based entirely on my gut, is that Sanders will get the nomination. It sounds kinda crazy, here on January 1st, but I don’t think Biden’s gonna do well in Iowa, New Hampshire, and the other early primaries.

Joe Biden’s already run for president twice before, in 1998, and 2008... and both times his momentum died pretty early on, because, well... he just seemed like kind of a joke... and kind of a goof.

Even after Obama chose Biden as his running mate, in 2008... it took years for people to start seeing him as, kind of presidential.

His best shot at the Presidency was in 2016, when he had the best claim to carrying the Obama torch forward. Hillary may not have even run, out of deference to the VP she’d served under as Secretary of State. But he would still have had to run against Bernie Sanders in the primaries that year.

And I’m not sure that even in 2016, Biden could have beat Sanders to the nomination.

Hillary Clinton did just barely beat Sanders to that nomination, but she had three things lending her extra bonus momentum; 1) Dynasty, 2) It’s My Turn, and 3) First Woman President.

Before I break those down, I’ll just say that Biden, would have only had one bonus card; It’s My Turn.

“It’s His/Her Turn,” is a game both parties play in election years when deciding who to nominate as the candidate who will run for the Presidency. Often, this happens in a year where the opposite party has a popular incumbent running.

Republican Bob Dole, in 1996, against incumbent Bill Clinton, is a good example... as is, Democrat John Kerry against incumbent Bush2, in 2004, and both the Republicans, John McCain, and Mitt Romney, against Obama in 2008, and incumbent Obama in 2012.

It should be noted here that 2008 was a special year, in that no incumbent was running, and neither was his VP. This would happen again in 2016, but in 2008, it was the first time it had happened since the 1960s.

In that race, Hillary Clinton did not yet have the, It’s My Turn, card... because you can only get that if you run for president and fail to get the party nomination. Then, when you run a second time you can claim it’s your turn.

She did, however, in 2008, still have the Dynasty card, and the First Woman President card.

Now, the Dynasty card has some precedent in American Politics. There were two President Roosevelts, for example, who were related. And then we had two President Bushs as well. So for Hillary, it was definitely and established thing.

But her, First Woman President card was completely cancelled out by Barack Obama’s, First Black President card... leaving her with just the Dynasty card... which, in the end, did not help her.

I will always contend, as I did back in 2008, that in her case, the Dynasty Card is radioactive, thanks to her husband’s impeachment... and also just because Bill was her husband and not her father or second cousin.

Husband and wife power-couple presidencies, lasting 16 years... is a thing I think we all, subconsciously oppose, whether on he right or the left, because sixteen years is long enough to groom the eldest child, and their spouse to carry on the dynasty for sixteen more... and sixteen more.

It seems like even GW Bush was pushing it, being the son of a former President, and that ideally... children, siblings, and spouses of a former President should all be barred constitutionally from ever holding the office.

But, nobody ever talks about that, which is why I say it is a subconscious strike in most people’s minds.

Be that as it may, we’re not talking about 2008, we’re talking about 2016, when, against Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton had not just the Dynasty card, but the, It’s My Turn card, now, as well as the First Woman President card... which Bernie could not cancel out, cuz... First Jewish President is not a card anybody wants to play.

First Catholic President was, in fact, a card played against JFK, his first time out.

So, in the 2016 primaries, these three cards helped Clinton beat Sanders to the nomination... because, to the DNC... who looked the other way when Clinton cheated in a few states along the way to get all the delegates she needed... It was her turn!

They did support the refurbishing of an unfairly tainted dynasty (Clinton impeachment). And now that we’d had our first Black President... we simply had to follow it up with a First Lady, cum Madame President, no question!

But Republicans did not concur with any of the above. Those same three cards were used against her by Trump (with internet social engineering help from Putin) in the General Election... to historic effect.*

A hundred years from now, the anecdote they’ll all remember from that election night, is the one where everybody in the Clinton campaign was in a ball room with a glass ceiling... supremely confident that she had it in the bag, because it was, “her, turn,” emphasis on the, “her.”**

But then, to everybody’s shock and horror, Sexist McRacistpants won instead.

So... what does any of this mean for Biden V Sanders in 2020?

Well, the way I see it... Joe Biden has only an, It’s My Turn card to play, but it’s been significantly weakened by the fact that he could not strike while the iron was hot for him in 2016.***

Bernie, meanwhile, has a freshly minted, It’s My Turn card. And his is a lot more potent than the standard issue, because of the hardcore support he continues to have four years later, with all the same voters who very nearly got him the nomination in 2016.

And then we have Elizabeth Warren, who’s only bonus card is, First Woman President. But... that card’s recently been tarnished by Clinton’s unforgettable glass ceiling ball room tragedy... which was not just a tragedy for the Clinton campaign... but for the nation, as it gave us the festering boil of a Presidency that has been the Trump Administration.

But, though it’s tarnished, Warren’s First Woman President card is still stronger than Joe Biden’s, It’s My Turn, card.

So... I would predict that the Biden Campaign sinks fast in the early primaries, just as it did in 1988, and 2008, because he’s lost the advantage he once might have had, both to time, and the fact that he... seems to be grappling with early onset dementia?

Well, let’s just say, he’s not as sharp as he was back in the day... which was never quite sharp enough to snatch the nomination.

I’ll grant Biden this, though... if Trump was just a run of the mill incumbent President, like Obama, Bush2, Clinton, or Reagan... then yes, Joe Biden would for sure, without question get the Democratic nomination this year... just like good old Bob Dole, John Kerry, or John McCain.

But Trump is not a run of the mill incumbent President. He’s an extremely problematic career criminal, who is also dangerously inept, and has now been impeached.

I don’t believe the same body of Democratic voters who, just last year gave the House back to the Democrats in order to impeach Trump, will, in 2020, in those early caucuses and Super Tuesdays, give Biden the delegates he needs to carry on into the summer.

My guess, here on January 1st, is that by Summer it will be between Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.

And that’s gonna tell everybody, that no matter who gets the nomination, the 2020 General election is gonna be about progressives retaking the Democratic party, in an all out battle to defeat a Republican party, that’s already been taken over by the radical far-right, for three years now.

Since I’m so far out on a limb here, I may as well go ahead and call the whole thing... I believe Bernie Sanders will be our next President, taking the oath in January of 2021.

I wouldn’t have said that even a week ago, but, as I said, I now have a gut feeling that this is how it will go.

I think Sanders will get the nomination... and win the election.

Will he beat Donald Trump in a head to head race for the White House?

That... I am still not too sure of.

Right now, I’d say there is still a 50/50 chance that Trump will have either been removed, or resigned, before... say, August. And there is even a chance that he’ll have booted Pence off the ticket and replaced him with an acting VP, before he does go.

So, it could be, Bernie Sanders Versus... who? Stephen Miller? Jared Kushner?

The reason I still feel Trump may be gone before the election even happens is that new damning information continues to come out... thanks mainly to FOIA requests by the news media, but also, as I’ve mentioned before, a bunch of rulings in the courts coming due that will all be going against Trump, in his efforts to obstruct justice.

There’s even been a few blurbs about the fact that more articles of Impeachment could still be drawn up against Trump, and passed, before it all finally goes to the Senate.

So... this impeachment thing is not yet sewn up. There is still a lot of room for the ground to shift here... potentially to the point where Republicans have to cave and indict him... or force him to resign under the threat of indictment, as happened to Nixon.

Still, even if Trump hangs on until November... I do believe Bernie Sanders will best him in a head to head race for the White House.

Sanders, I believe, has the edge on Trump, in what I call, “relative charisma,” which is ultimately what always decides our Presidential elections, here in the United States.

Relative charisma is... simply the comparison of charisma between two Presidential candidates.

For example, Nixon lost to JFK, because JFK had more charisma. But Nixon won against both Spiro Agnew, and George McGovern, because in those match ups, he had more charisma, compared to the other guys.

Carter had more charisma than Ford... but Reagan had way more than Carter.

Bush1 had more charisma than Dukakis, but looked like a dead fish compared to Bill Clinton.

I even said, back in mid 2016, that based on this one rule of thumb, Trump should beat Hillary Clinton... though I did not believe at the time that this would be the actual outcome.

Of course, after 2016, I’m taking the rule of relative charisma a lot more seriously. But I do think that Bernie Sanders has more charisma than Trump.

They are both energetic and animated, with populist appeal. Both are known for, “telling it like it is,” though in Trump’s case, it’s always lies designed to push emotional buttons, where in Sanders’ case, it’s always the unvarnished truth.

Trump’s charisma is exclusively negative, whereas with Sanders, it’s quite positive.

Trump’s never winning any converts from the light side... whereas Sanders is known for picking up converts from the dark side here and there.

Trump relied on dirty tricks to help him in 2016, and was planning on using them again in 2020 against Biden... but there is no dirt to be dug up on Sanders, and at this point, it would be nearly impossible to try and frame Sanders for something, now that Trump himself is in so much hot water for all of his own corruption.

Also... Trump’s incumbency may be his greatest handicap... simply because his shtick is just getting old hat. He’s played it into the ground over the last three years and... as I’ve mentioned before... his rallies for Republican Congressmen and Governors always precede their losing... and his Mid Term strategy also failed pretty miserably.

Okay, I have rambled on long enough for this first entry of 2020.

Vote your conscience... but vote... in the Primaries, and again in the General!

I’m going to bed.

*It is beyond dispute, at this point in January of 2020, that Trump owed much of his 2016 victory to Russian trolls, who were in the military, and acting on Putin’s orders... to mislead gullible American voters online via Facebook, Twitter, and other social media platforms.

** Not that I disagree with the sentiment... I did vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but there was a distinct air of entitlement... due only to having, paid dues, as it were, rather than actually caring about what the voting public truly wanted in 2016.

*** Due to the untimely death of his son, Beu Biden, who died of a brain tumor in May of 2015, Joe Biden chose not to run for President in the 2016 election. This is entirely understandable.

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