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bountyofbeads · 5 years

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Iraq gives U.S. troops from Syria four weeks in the country before they must leave

By Erin Cunningham and Kareem Fahim

October 23 at 7:18 AM ET

ISTANBUL — U.S. troops leaving Syria are only “transiting” through Iraqi territory and will depart within four weeks, Iraq’s defense minister said Wednesday.

Najah al-Shammari spoke with the Associated Press following a meeting with Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper in Baghdad.

Esper arrived in Iraq for talks amid an apparent disagreement over whether U.S. troops withdrawing from northeastern Syria could now stay in Iraq.

The Pentagon chief said earlier this week that the troops leaving Syria would reposition to western Iraq to continue fighting the Islamic State. But on Tuesday, he appeared to backtrack, saying that American forces would stay only temporarily.

Iraq’s military opposed the move, saying in a statement that the newly arrived U.S. forces would have to leave.

“There is no agreement for these forces to stay in Iraq,” the statement said.

[Russia and Turkey reach deal to push Kurdish forces out of zone in northern Syria]

The dispute added to the turmoil of a rapid U.S. withdrawal from northeastern Syria, where American forces had been allied with Syrian Kurdish fighters battling the Islamic State.

President Trump ordered the departure of U.S. troops ahead of a Turkish military offensive targeting the Kurdish-led militias, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Turkey views as a threat to its national security.

The Turkish campaign displaced nearly 180,000 people and prompted the SDF to strike a bargain with the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, allowing for the return of some pro-Assad forces to areas once under Kurdish control.

The United States helped broker a cease-fire between the SDF and Turkey and its proxies. On Tuesday, Russia and Turkey agreed on a plan to push the Syrian Kurdish fighters from a wide swath of territory just south of Turkey’s border.

Once they were gone, the plan stipulated, Turkey and Russia would begin jointly patrolling the border region. Syrian Kurdish officials did not comment on the initiative.

Turkey’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday that the withdrawal of Kurdish fighters following the agreements with the United States and Russia meant that there was “no further need to conduct a new operation.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told the state-owned Anadolu News agency, however, that Turkish forces would “clear” any “terrorist remnants” from areas now under Turkish control in northeastern Syria.

The move by Russia, a key ally of Assad, to negotiate the deal cemented President Vladimir Putin’s preeminent role in Syria as U.S. troops depart and America’s influence wanes.

The Kremlin said Wednesday that the United States had betrayed and abandoned the Kurds in Syria.

“The United States has been the Kurds’ closest ally in recent years. . . . [But] in the end, it abandoned the Kurds and, in essence, betrayed them,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian news agencies.

[Trump claims he has ‘secured the Oil’ in Syria. Here’s what’s really going on.]

Peskov added that if the SDF did not withdraw from the border, Syrian government forces and Russian military police would have to depart, leaving the Kurdish fighters exposed to the Turkish army.

Russia hopes that the deal will lead to Turkey’s eventual recognition of Assad’s government, analysts said.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been one of Assad’s most vocal adversaries during Syria’s war, would have to prepare Turkey’s public for such recognition, according to Aaron Stein, the director of the Middle East program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. “He has already started to do that,” Stein added.

Turkey’s primary objective “was to push the U.S. out and to break the SDF as the governing entity and as the legitimate political and military actor in the Syrian space. And they did that,” he said.

“For Ankara, this is a rational decision. This may take Americans by surprise,” but the final deal was always going to be made with the Russians, he said.

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Russia and Turkey reach deal to push Kurdish forces out of zone in northern Syria

By Kareem Fahim, Karen DeYoung and Missy Ryan

October 22 at 8:05 PM ET

ISTANBUL — Russia and Turkey agreed Tuesday on a plan to push Syrian Kurdish fighters from a wide swath of territory just south of Turkey’s border, cementing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s preeminent role in Syria as U.S. troops depart and America’s influence wanes.

The agreement, reached after an hours-long meeting between Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Black Sea resort town of Sochi, will leave Turkey and Russia in control of territory formerly held by Kurdish forces once allied with the United States.

More important, though, the deal bolstered Russia’s preferred endgame in Syria’s civil war by allowing its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, to regain control over more of his country’s territory. Russia is also prodding states in the region to recognize, either explicitly or tacitly, the Syrian government’s authority, analysts said.

[Trump calls for cease-fire in northern Syria]

The Turkey-Russia agreement came as the deadline expired on a separate deal Turkey made last week with the United States to “pause” its advance into Syria in preparation for a full cease-fire. In exchange, the United States agreed initially to clear Syrian Kurdish fighters from a strip about 75 miles long and 20 miles deep along the border — and to lift existing sanctions on Turkey and refrain from imposing more.

Hours after the expiration, a senior Trump administration official said that Kurdish leaders had confirmed their withdrawal from that portion of the border, and that Turkey was believed to have stopped its southern advance. Although discussions were still underway in Washington, the official indicated that sanctions would not go forward.

“Good news seems to be happening with respect to Turkey, Syria and the Middle East,” President Trump tweeted Tuesday evening. “Further reports to come later!”

The deal concluded with Russia formalizing the cast of actors who will decide northern Syria’s future. Russia and the Syrian government would start removing Kurdish militias from a far larger part of the border, extending hundreds of miles from the Euphrates River to Iraq and more than 20 miles deep, beginning at noon Wednesday, according to the agreement. Once they were gone, it stipulated, Turkey and Russia would begin jointly patrolling the border region.

Mervan Qamishlo, a spokesman for the Kurdish-led militias, said Tuesday that his group had withdrawn from the Syrian towns of Ras al-Ayn and Tal Abyad — the parameters of the earlier U.S. agreement — to a distance more than 20 miles from Turkey. He did not respond to requests for comment on the Russian-Turkish agreement.

The deal reached in Sochi came two weeks after Turkey launched a military offensive in northern Syria that the United States had long sought to stave off. The operation targeted the Kurdish-led militia, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which was the principal U.S. partner in the fight against the Islamic State extremist group.

A telephone call between Erdogan and Trump, a few days before the offensive, was widely seen as the green light for Turkey’s move: Shortly after the call, the White House announced that it was withdrawing most of its remaining 1,000 troops from Syria, removing a major obstacle for Turkey. The Trump administration, denying that it had approved the offensive, threatened sanctions.

But the fallout had already begun. Turkey began air and artillery strikes on SDF positions as Turkish-allied Syrian rebels joined the battle on the ground. Within days, tens of thousands of people were forced to flee their homes in Syria and dozens of people on both sides of the border were killed in the fighting.

[Furor over troop withdrawal began with troubling Trump phone call, White House statement]

The White House, battered by criticism it had abandoned its Kurdish allies, dispatched Vice President Pence to Ankara, Turkey’s capital, last week in a desperate attempt to persuade Erdogan to halt the military offensive. But the announced withdrawal of troops gave the administration little leverage, and the agreement that emerged from Pence’s meeting with Erdogan effectively blessed Turkey’s actions.

On Monday, a large convoy of U.S. military vehicles crossed Syria’s border with Iraq in the most visible manifestation of the U.S. policy shift in the region. On Tuesday, Iraq’s military said the newly arrived U.S. forces would have to leave, adding to the sense of harried disarray. “There is no agreement for these forces to stay in Iraq,” an Iraqi military statement said.

Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper stressed Tuesday that the troops would stay only temporarily in Iraq, appearing to back away from an earlier statement saying they would continue to assist in fighting the Islamic State from there.

Speaking to reporters during a trip to Saudi Arabia, Esper said that “the aim isn’t to stay in Iraq interminably.”

“The aim is to pull our soldiers out and eventually get them back home,” he said.

Iraq’s deputy prime minister and finance minister, Fuad Hussein, speaking to reporters during a visit to Washington on Monday, said Iraq would permit foreign forces to use its territory to launch attacks only on the Islamic State.

In Washington, lawmakers of both parties continued to criticize the administration’s seemingly ad hoc policy maneuvers. Several bipartisan bills were introduced demanding that the United States sanction Turkey. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said he had introduced a resolution denouncing Turkey’s invasion of Syria and calling for Trump to halt the U.S. troop withdrawal.

James Jeffrey, the administration’s special envoy for Syria, was battered by lawmakers at a Senate hearing. Asked repeatedly whether he, as the policy specialist, had been consulted or informed of the troop withdrawal decision, Jeffrey said he had not, but repeated the administration’s denial that Trump had approved the Turkish incursion.

Both Republicans and Democrats dismissed Jeffrey’s insistence that U.S. goals in Syria — to prevent an Islamic State resurgence, to remove Assad’s Iranian allies from the country, and to establish a working democracy in Syria — remained intact.

“I have the greatest respect for you,” Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) told the envoy, “but one can try to put lipstick on a pig but it’s still a pig. One can try to call capitulation a victory, and it’s still capitulation.”

Noting reports of Islamic

State prisoners escaping from Kurdish-run prisons in Syria, and the potential for militant seizure of Syrian oil fields, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) asked, “How much thought or preparation are you aware of that went into preventing those things from happening before the decision was made?”

Jeffrey said that most of the planning was done after Trump’s initial decision in December — also after a phone call with Erdogan, and without consulting with advisers — to withdraw what were then more than 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria. The president was ultimately persuaded to pull out only half the troops.

This time, “if you had been called . . . do you feel you could have laid out a plan that didn’t result in this advancement of the interests of Iran and Syria and Russia and [the Islamic State] that would have gotten our troops out of Syria?” asked Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.).

“I would have tried,” Jeffrey said.

Esper, during an interview with CNN that aired later Tuesday, appeared to minimize concerns that the Islamic State could reconstitute itself because of Turkey’s incursion, a threat that several retired U.S. generals have warned of in the past week in interviews.

He said intelligence suggested that 11,000 detainees remain in prisons in northeast Syria. “We’ve only had reports of a little bit more than a hundred that have escaped,” Esper said. Jeffrey put the number at “dozens.”

During a news conference in Sochi on Tuesday, Putin said a “significant decision” had been reached but did not discuss its details, leaving that to Erdogan and the foreign ministers of Turkey and Russia, who spoke afterward.

One clause of the agreement referred to “joint efforts” to facilitate the return of refugees to Syria — a critical issue for Turkey, which hosts about 4 million Syrian refugees. But Erdogan’s proposal to send refugees to a “safe zone” in Syria has been criticized by human rights groups because few of the migrants hail from that area.

Russia hopes that the deal will lead to Turkey’s eventual recognition of Assad’s government, analysts said.

Erdogan, who has been one of Assad’s most vocal adversaries during Syria’s war, would have to prepare Turkey’s public for such recognition, according to Aaron Stein, the director of the Middle East program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. “He has already started to do that,” Stein added.

“For Ankara, this is a rational decision. This may take Americans by surprise,” but the final deal was always going to be made with the Russians, he said.

Dan Lamothe in Washington, Sarah Dadouch and Asser Khatab in Beirut, Amie Ferris-Rotman in Moscow and Mustafa Salim in Irbil, Iraq, contributed to this report.

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Putin aims to boost Moscow’s clout with Russia-Africa summit

By Vladimir Isachenkov | AP

October 23 at 8:24 AM ET

MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted dozens of leaders of African nations Wednesday for the first-ever Russia-Africa summit, reflecting Moscow’s new push to expand its clout on the continent and saying there is “enormous potential for growth.”

Putin and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi are hosting the two-day summit attended by leaders of 43 of the continent’s 54 countries, with the other nations represented by senior officials.

Putin said Russia’s annual trade with African nations doubled in the last five years to exceed $20 billion. He noted that “it’s clearly not enough” and expressed his wish that trade will double again “as a minimum” in the next four or five years.

El-Sissi encouraged Russian companies to expand their investment in Africa. “There is an opportune moment for that now,” he said.

Russia has worked methodically in recent years to expand its influence in Africa, taking advantage of the seemingly waning U.S. interest in the continent under President Donald Trump’s administration. Moscow has sought to revive relationships forged during the Cold War, when it poured funds and weapons into Africa in rivalry with the U.S., and has worked to cultivate new ties such as relations with South Africa.

Putin noted that Moscow has written off $20 billion in debt — he did not say over what period — and provided aid to African nations. He said Russia is willing to help tap natural resources and offer its technologies to the continent, and he welcomed the recent creation of an African free trade zone.

Russia’s geological survey agency signed agreements with South Sudan, Rwanda and Guinea to search for carbon resources on their territories. And Russia’s largest oil company, Rosneft, said it was preparing to explore Mozambique’s offshore oil resources.

Putin also met with several African leaders to discuss potential projects.

He told South African President Cyril Ramaphosa that Moscow is looking to further expand trade with the country, one of the continent’s most developed economies. Such trade reached $1 billion last year.

Putin congratulated Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on winning the Nobel Peace Prize earlier this month, hailing his efforts to make peace with longtime rival Eritrea.

While meeting with Namibian President Hage Geingob, Putin touted prospects for Russia to help tap the country’s vast uranium resources, diamonds and other mineral riches. Geingob, in turn, welcomed Russia to send military advisers to the country.

Central African Republic President Faustin Archange Touadera thanked Putin for Russian weapons and asked for more military assistance, saying his government needs it to fight armed groups competing for the country’s gold, diamonds and uranium riches. Russian private contractors and security experts reportedly have helped train the nation’s military.

Last year three Russian journalists were killed in Central African Republic while investigating a Russian military contractor, Wagner, which operates there. The perpetrators haven’t been found, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin and Touadera had discussed the probe into the killing.

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The Latest: Turkish troops, Syrian rebels take over town

By Associated Press | Published October 23, 2019 8:19 AM ET | AP | Posted October 23, 2019 |

BEIRUT — The Latest on the situation in Syria following the Turkish invasion earlier this month into the country’s northeast (all times local):

3:10 p.m.

Turkish media reports say Turkish troops and allied Syrian rebels are securing a town in northeastern Syria after Syrian Kurdish fighters pulled out of the area.

The private DHA news agency says the Turkish soldiers and Syrian rebels were using heavy machinery on Wednesday to fill in tunnels dug by the Kurdish fighters in Ras al Ayn. They were also disposing of traps or explosives left behind.

The private NTV television, meanwhile, showed a group of Syrian rebels standing on the roof of a building that was reportedly the Syrian Kurdish fighters’ headquarters, unfurling the Turkish and Syrian opposition flags.

The move came after the U.S. announced Syrian Kurdish fighters completed their pullout from Ras al Ayn and other areas Turkey invaded this month.

Separately, Russia and Turkey agreed on Tuesday to deploy their forces across nearly the entire northeastern Syria border to fill the void left by President Donald Trump’s abrupt withdrawal of U.S. forces.

___

2:20 p.m.

Turkish media quote President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as saying that Turkey will resume its offensive in northeastern Syria if neither Russia nor the U.S. ensure that Syrian Kurdish fighters completely pull out of the region along Turkey’s border.

Erdogan spoke to journalists on Wednesday, following his return from talks in Russia.

He says he asked Russian President Vladimir Putin what would happen if the Syrian Kurdish fighters donned Syrian army uniforms and remained in the border area. Erdogan says Putin responded by saying he wouldn’t let that happen.

Erdogan’s comments were carried by Hurriyet newspaper’s online edition.

The Turkish leader also says a planned visit to Washington for talks with President Donald Trump, scheduled for Nov. 13, would likely take place.

___

2 p.m.

The NATO chief is calling for a political resolution to the conflict in Syria and urges Turkey to focus on the threat posed by the extremist Islamic State group, two weeks since Turkey invaded northeastern Syria in an offensive against Kurdish forces there.

Ankara considers the Syrian Kurdish fighters terrorists aligned with a Kurdish insurgency inside Turkey.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday that “the recent developments underscore the urgent need for a political solution” in Syria.

He says it’s important to ensure the extremists are defeated “and that we understand that the fight against ISIS is not over. They can come back.” ISIS is another acronym for the Islamic State group.

Russia and Turkey agreed on Tuesday to deploy their forces across nearly the entire northeastern Syria border to fill the void left by President Donald Trump’s abrupt withdrawal of U.S. forces.

Stoltenberg says “it is a bit too early to judge the consequences” of that agreement.

NATO defense ministers will discuss Turkey’s invasion of northern Syria during talks in Brussels on Thursday.

___

1 p.m.

The Kremlin has warned Kurdish fighters that they will face a renewed Turkish onslaught if they fail to withdraw their forces in line with a Russia-Turkey deal.

The warning comes a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan struck a deal to share control of Syria’s northeast.

Under the agreement, Turkey will hold the area it has seized in the invasion that began on Oct. 9, while Russian and Syrian troops will control the rest of the Syria-Turkey border. The deal gives Kurdish fighters 150 hours starting at noon Wednesday to withdraw from the area.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov warns that if the Kurds fail to do that, Russian and Syrian troops will step back and “the remaining Kurdish units will be steamrolled by the Turkish army.”

___

12:40 p.m.

Russian media reports say Russian military police have started patrols in northern Syria as a Turkish-Russian agreement giving Syrian Kurdish fighters 150 hours to withdraw from almost the entire northeast border region of Syria came into effect.

The Interfax agency carried a statement by Russia’s military police saying patrols had begun in the northeast of the city of Manbij. Russian television meanwhile, reported a convoy of Russian troops heading toward the town of Kobane.

Under the deal, Russian and Syrian government forces were to move to ensure that the fighters pull back 30 kilometers, about 20 miles, from the border as of noon on Wednesday.

The deal reached between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin allows Turkey to maintain control over areas it invaded this month in northeastern Syria. Ankara launched the incursion against Syrian Kurdish fighters whom it considers terrorists, claiming they are linked to a Kurdish insurgency within Turkey.

The deal gives the Russian troops and the Syrian army control over the rest of the Syria-Turkey frontier.

___

11:25 a.m.

Turkey’s foreign minister says Turkish forces will “neutralize” any remaining Syrian Kurdish fighter they come across in areas now under Turkish control in northeastern Syria.

Mevlut Cavusoglu made the comments on Wednesday — even after the military signaled it won’t resume its offensive, following separate agreements Turkey reached with the U.S. and Russia.

The military said earlier the U.S. had announced Syrian Kurdish fighters completed their pullout from areas Turkey invaded this month as a five-day cease-fire expired.

Cavusoglu told Anadolu Agency: “If there are terrorist remnants, we would clear them.”

Cavusoglu said the deal with Russia — which foresees joint Turkish-Russian patrols after the withdrawal of Kurdish forces — would continue until a lasting political solution for Syria is reached. He says the border areas would be locally-administered, mostly by Arabs.

He said Turkey agreed not to conduct joint patrols in the city of Qamishli, because of Russian concerns that such a move could lead to a confrontation between Turkish troops and the Syrian government forces who have long been present in the area.

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10:15 a.m.

Turkey’s Defense Ministry is signaling it won’t resume its offensive in northeast Syria, following agreements reached with the U.S. and Russia.

The ministry said early on Wednesday the U.S. had announced Syrian Kurdish fighters completed their pullout from areas Turkey invaded this month as a five-day cease-fire allowing for the withdrawal expired.

This came after the leaders of Russia and Turkey announced a separate deal for their forces to jointly patrol almost the entire northeastern Syrian border after the Kurdish withdrawal.

Under that deal, Turkey will maintain control over the areas it holds since its incursion. It also lets Russian and Syrian troops control the rest of the border.

The ministry said: “At this stage, there is no further need to conduct a new operation outside the present operation area.”

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antoine-roquentin · 5 years

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US diplomats shaken by Trump decision to exit Syria

But US officials, speaking not for attribution, and Syria experts who consult with the US administration said that this time they believe Trump’s decision is real, and will not be reversed by a bureaucracy that has urged him to keep US forces in Syria longer.

“This time it’s real and truly catastrophic,” a US official, speaking not for attribution, told Al-Monitor. “The president is just done” and said "leave."

Trump’s decision to withdraw US forces from Syria came in the wake of a phone call between him and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday in which Erdogan said Turkish forces could finish off IS remnants and other terrorist groups, Syria experts said.

Secretary of Defense James Mattis, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton met Monday, when Trump was said to formally decide on a US withdrawal from Syria. Multiple US officials argued against an abrupt US withdrawal, but were said to have given up trying to get Trump to change his mind by Tuesday night. US officials began to notify allies of the decision Tuesday.

“The push back from DOD, State and NSC stopped [Tuesday] night,” said one regional expert who consults with the US administration, referring to the Department of Defense, the State Department and the National Security Council....

“Amb. Jim Jeffrey … has long been advancing a Syria policy divorced from the president’s own views,” Wittes wrote on Twitter. “I don’t fault Jeffrey at all for trying to create some coherence and leverage to achieve desirable outcomes. But it was futile without Trump fully on board.”“

The other big US policy loser here, of course, is Pompeo/Bolton/Hook’s Iran policy of 'maximum pressure,'” Wittes added, referring to US envoy on Iran Brian Hook.

US approves Patriot missile sale worth $3.5bn to Turkey

The United States has said it approved a sale of $3.5bn in missiles to Turkey amid tensions between the NATO allies over Ankara's plans to buy them from Russia.

The State Department on Wednesday said it had informed the US Congress of plans to sell Turkey a Patriot package that includes 80 Patriot missiles, 60 PAC-3 missile interceptors and related equipment....

Ankara a year ago announced a deal to buy S-400 missiles from Russia, drawing rebuke from its allies in NATO, a bloc originally formed as a bulwark against the former Soviet Union.

A State Department official, talking to the AFP news agency, said Turkey was jeopardising participation in another US military programme - the coveted F-35 fighter jets - if the country still went ahead with the S-400 sale.

Turkey could also face sanctions on defence purchases under the US law if it goes ahead, the official reportedly said, on condition of anonymity.

Turkey Planning to Buy Both Russian and U.S.-Made Missiles

The U.S. had earlier resisted selling Turkey the Patriot because it objected to Ankara’s demand to share technology. But as tensions with Iran rise, it wants to bring the Turkish government more firmly within NATO’s orbit.

Ankara is trying to diversify defense suppliers, and one big advantage of the Russian systems is that it gives the buyer some control over the technology, unlike American counterparts, said Konstantin Makienko, deputy head of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow think tank.

“There is a 90 percent chance that the Russian contract on the S-400s will be implemented,” Makienko said. “They also may buy Patriots in the future.”

Erdogan says Turkish troops to march into northeast Syria (Dec 12)

The most curious facet of his speech was that he was telling the YPG in advance that he was going to attack it. “If you want to do something like that, you have to do it suddenly without announcement,” Hasan Koni, a professor of international law at Istanbul Kultur University, told Al-Monitor.

This suggested that Erdogan was testing the waters of international opinion, wanting to see how strongly the world would react.

“If (the United States) doesn’t let it happen, it doesn’t happen,” said opposition legislator Hisyar Ozsoy, deputy chairman of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, the pro-Kurdish and third-biggest party in Turkey....

But liberals said Erdogan is trying to divert attention away from the poor state of the economy, where unemployment is over 11%, inflation is 22% and the IMF says growth will be 0.4% next year. Turkey holds municipal elections March 31.

“Erdogan is in need of garnering the support of nationalist voters,” said Murat Ozcelik, a former Turkish ambassador to Iraq and special envoy to Iraq’s Kurdish region.

Ozcelik told Al-Monitor that he saw Erdogan’s announcement as “a gimmick more for domestic use rather than a real invasion.”

“I don’t think he will be able to do a major operation while US soldiers are there,” he said. “The best he can do is some attacks.”

Pointing to the announcement’s effect on the exchange rate, where the Turkish lira slightly strengthened against the US dollar Tuesday, closing at 5.36, Ozcelik added: “Even the markets didn’t buy it.”

However, HDP legislator Ozsoy said Erdogan should be taken seriously.

“He’s not bluffing,” Ozsoy told Al-Monitor. “If there’s no strong (world) reaction, he could do it.”

Ozsoy said this would not be the first time Erdogan begins an election campaign with a military operation. His campaign for the presidential elections in June began with his sending troops into northwest Syria in January, Ozsoy said.

14,000 strong FSA army ready for Turkey’s Euphrates op

The FSA completed its preparations for the operation on Wednesday, coinciding with Erdoğan’s announcement. FSA’s 14,000-strong force will serve as an advance guard and their numbers will increase once the operation begins.

The TAF’s commando and Special Forces units were informed that they would partake in the operation, and were allowed to visit their families before deploying.

Thirty armored personnel carriers dispatched from the border province of Kilis headed toward the Syria border, which is where they will be stationed. The convoy of military vehicles is protected by a wide range of security measures.

Over the past 15 days, military deployments to the Syrian border have been increased. Armored vehicles, tanks and personnel were deployed from Şanlıurfa to Akçakale.

Regime Axis Forces are withdrawing forces from Hama and Idlib and are sending them to Deir Ez Zor

Indeed. Posted today by an Assad's soldier "from Idlib to DeirEzzor".

2/ What the Kurdish population fears most at this stage is an Afrin-like scenario in the North of Syria. They fear that Turkey and Turkey backed rebels will take control of territories in Northern Syria currently controlled by SDF/ YPG.

3/ Without U.S. in their areas, Kurds will try to reconcile with Syrian gov. However deal is not guaranteed. As we've seen earlier in Afrin, Kurds wanted deal with Syrian gov to avoid Turkey attack. But Russians blocked it as they were looking for better relations with Turkey.

4/ Situation bit differnet now from Afrin as Russia might be annoyed by Turkey purchase of $3.5 billion of U.S. weapons. In all cases, with sudden withdrawal of U.S. troops, Kurds are in position of weakness. Any deal with Damascus better for Kurds than Turkish offensive.

Islamic State kills 700 prisoners in east Syria: Syrian Observatory

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Wednesday that Islamic State militants had executed nearly 700 prisoners in nearly two months in eastern Syria.

The UK-based war monitoring group said the prisoners were among 1,350 civilians and fighters that Islamic State had been holding in territory near the Iraqi border.

2/ Trump is going to hand over north eastern Syria to Turkey and its local Sunni extremist mercenary forces who hate the Kurds, like militias from Der Ezzor who are part of Euphrates Shield forces, in addition to Jeish al Islam remnants from Douma.

3/ This will create the perfect zone for a revival of ISIS and similar forces who will have a second chance to pursue their goals and threaten the fragile stability that was emerging in Iraq and Syria.

quite shocked that trump didn’t listen to his neocon advisors for once. 2.5 likely options i see. one is re-integration with the syrian state in the model of reconciliation agreements. collapse of socialist pyd economy back into syrian neoliberal capitalism. sdf military formations are integrated into syrian govt ones, disbanded, go underground, or are moved to safe zones in iraq. syrian police are integrated with local police to a degree, but likely continue harassment, torture, and execution of political dissidents as in days before. no ethnic cleansing, which is preferable. two is turkish invasion and partition of syria long-term along the lines of cyprus. locals considered undesirable are ethnically cleansed, political reliables are resettled on the cleared territory, relieving population pressures in idlib and in refugee camps in turkey itself. since a syrian govt attack would activate nato protocols, it can never be retaken. refugees forced on iraq and syria, straining those governments in the near-term. would also be another blow to the saudi axis in favour of the qatari one, given that the saudis maintain troops in sdf territory. perhaps some kind of international incident. 0.5 is an isis resurgence that manages to beat back both syrian and turkish offensives and holds its own, leading to major embarrassment for trump and a renewed american military commitment. unlikely, but possible.

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newstfionline · 6 years

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Is Turkey Recruiting ex-ISIS Fighters?

By Patrick Cockburn, Counterpunch, February 12, 2018

Turkey is recruiting and retraining Isis fighters to lead its invasion of the Kurdish enclave of Afrin in northern Syria, according to an ex-Isis source.

“Most of those who are fighting in Afrin against the YPG [People’s Protection Units] are Isis, though Turkey has trained them to change their assault tactics,” said Faraj, a former Isis fighter from north-east Syria who remains in close touch with the jihadi movement.

In a phone interview with The Independent, he added: “Turkey at the beginning of its operation tried to delude people by saying that it is fighting Isis, but actually they are training Isis members and sending them to Afrin.”

An estimated 6,000 Turkish troops and 10,000 Free Syrian Army (FSA) militia crossed into Syria on 20 January, pledging to drive the YPG out of Afrin.

The attack was led by the FSA, which is a largely defunct umbrella grouping of non-Jihadi Syrian rebels once backed by the West. Now, most of its fighters taking part in Turkey’s “Operation Olive Branch” were, until recently, members of Isis.

Some of the FSA troops advancing into Afrin are surprisingly open about their allegiance to al-Qaeda and its offshoots. A video posted online shows three uniformed jihadis singing a song in praise of their past battles and “how we were steadfast in Grozny (Chechnya) and Dagestan (north Caucasus). And we took Tora Bora (the former headquarters of Osama bin Laden). And now Afrin is calling to us”.

Isis suffered heavy defeats last year, losing Mosul in Iraq after a siege of nine months and Raqqa in Syria after a four-month siege. The caliphate, declared by its leader Abu Baqr al-Baghdadi in 2014, was destroyed, and most of its experienced commanders and fighters were killed or dispersed.

But it has shown signs of trying to revive itself in Syria and Iraq over the last two months, assassinating local opponents and launching guerrilla attacks in out-of-the-way and poorly defended places.

Isis fighters are joining the FSA and Turkish-army invasion force because they are put under pressure by the Turkish authorities. From the point of view of Turkey, the recruitment of former Isis combatants means that it can draw on a large pool of professional and experienced soldiers. Another advantage is that they are not Turks, so if they suffer serious casualties this will do no damage to the Turkish government.

Isis and Turkey are seeking to use each other for their own purposes. Faraj, 32, an Arab from the mixed Kurdish-Arab province of Hasakah in north-east Syria, says that he does not like the YPG, but he is suspicious of Turkey and believes that it is trying manipulate Isis. “Turkey treats Isis like toilet tissues,” he says. “After use they will be thrown away.”

Turkey is evidently aware that using Isis fighters as the spearhead for the assault on Afrin, even if they relabelled as FSA, is likely to attract international criticism.

Faraj says that Turkish commanders have discouraged Isis from using their traditional tactics of extensive use of suicide bombers and car bombs at Afrin because this would make the Isis-Turkish cooperation too blatant.

He says that the FSA men are “professional in planning car-bomb attacks as they have experience before with Isis in Raqqa and Mosul”.

But he cites Turkish officers as discouraging such identifiable tactics, quoting one as telling an FSA group in training that “we leave the suicide attacks for the YPG and the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party which carries on guerrilla warfare in Turkey), so that the world will be convinced that they are terrorists”.

Turkey has had an ambivalent relationship with jihadi groups since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011. At first, it allowed foreign jihadi fighters and military supplies to cross into Syria, though this tolerance ebbed after the fall of Mosul in June 2014.

Nevertheless, Ankara made clear by its actions during the siege of the Kurdish city of Kobani that it would have preferred victory to go to Isis rather than the YPG.

As the YPG advanced after Kobani with the support of US air power, Turkey’s priority became to reverse the creation of a de facto Kurdish state in Syria under US military protection.

The US is in a particularly difficult position. It was the YPG who provided the ground troops who, backed by US air strikes, have defeated Isis in many battles.

Without them there would have been no victory over Isis as was claimed by President Trump in his State of the Union message. But the YPG is now facing some of the same Isis fighters in Afrin with whom it fought over the past four years. It will not look good if the US abandons its proven Kurdish allies because it does not want a confrontation with Turkey.

Such a confrontation could be just around the corner. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened at the weekend to expand the Turkish invasion to include the Arab town of Manbij, captured from Isis by the YPG in 2016 after a long siege. He said that the Americans “tell us, ‘Don’t come to Manbij.’ We will come to Manbij to handover these territories to their rightful owners.”

The fighting between Turks and Kurds and the growing confrontation between the US and Turkey are all in the interests of Isis. It does not have the strength to recover from its crushing defeats last year, but the opponents it faced then are now fighting other battles.

Eliminating the last pockets of Isis resistance is no longer their first priority. The YPG has been transferring units that were facing Isis in the far east of Syria to the west where they will face the Turks.

Turkey is not in a very strong position militarily almost three weeks after its invasion of Afrin. It can only win by bombing round the clock, and for this it will need Russian permission, which it probably will not get. If it is going to expand its attacks, it will need more combat soldiers and this will provide an opportunity for Isis to join in a new war.

The Turkish embassy in the UK has been approached for comment but had not responded by the time of publication.

#Turkey #Afrin #Turkish border #Turks in Syria #Turkey and ISIS

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ericfruits · 6 years

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After taking Afrin, Turkey looks for new targets in Syria

FOR President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the timing of Turkey’s victory in the Afrin region of northern Syria could not have been better. After a two-month offensive against Kurdish militants, Turkish troops took control of the enclave’s main town on March 17th. The next day Turkey celebrated the anniversary of the battle of Gallipoli, the only big Ottoman victory of the first world war. True to form, Mr Erdogan rolled the two conflicts into one, accusing Western powers of backing the Kurdish forces against Turkey. “In Gallipoli they attacked us with the most powerful army,” he said. “Now that they do not have the courage to do so, they come at us with the world’s basest, bloodiest, specially trained and equipped terrorist organisations.”

Capturing Afrin was easier than expected. By the time Turkish tanks rolled into the main town, the Kurdish militia known as the People’s Protection Units, or YPG, had melted away. Nearly 200,000 residents had already fled, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The Britain-based monitoring group says 289 civilians died over the course of Turkey’s offensive, along with more than 1,500 Kurdish fighters and 46 Turkish soldiers. America and Germany have condemned Turkey for adding to Syria’s misery. But Mr Erdogan dismisses their criticism. “We have not caused a single civilian to bleed from his nose,” he says.

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Turkish officials say they now intend to bring the war against the Kurdish militants to Syria’s north-east and Iraq, where the YPG’s mother organisation, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), has bases. Turkey does not distinguish between the two groups. It has been fighting the PKK, which seeks self-rule in Turkey, for over three decades. But there is a big problem with Turkey’s plans. In the Syrian Kurds’ eastern strongholds, which stretch from Manbij to the Iraqi border (see map), they are flanked by as many as 2,000 American troops. The YPG, backed by America’s air force, has pushed the jihadists of Islamic State (IS) to the brink of defeat. Now Turkey wants America, its NATO ally, to get out of the way so that it can go after the YPG, considering it no less a threat than IS.

Manbij may hold a solution—or become a flashpoint. America long ago promised Turkey that Kurdish forces, who wrested the ethnically mixed town from IS in 2016, would withdraw. They have not. America sees them as crucial to security in the area. A deal might see the YPG pull back to east of the Euphrates river, while Turkey and America work with local leaders to keep the peace.

The other pressing question is what Turkey will do in Afrin. Mr Erdogan has suggested returning it to its “rightful owners”, raising fears that he may use it to settle some of the 3.4m (mostly Arab) Syrian refugees living in Turkey; or to absorb future refugees from Idlib, a rebel-held province that is under attack by the regime of Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s president.

Mr Assad’s forces are close to capturing rebel-held Eastern Ghouta, a suburb of Damascus. Syrian bombs have killed at least 1,400 civilians in the area in the past month. Similar massacres are expected once the regime and its Russian allies focus their attention on Idlib. “The refugee exodus this would produce is something Turkish policymakers would prefer to deal with outside Turkey,” says Ahmet Han of Kadir Has University in Istanbul. Afrin might offer them a chance to do just that.

This article appeared in the Middle East and Africa section of the print edition under the headline "Where next?"

http://ift.tt/2FYVbRh

#IFTTT #Feedly

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roguenewsdao · 6 years

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Syraq SITREP 31: SecState Tillerson Commits Trump Admin to U.S. Occupation of Eastern Syria

The ISIS 'USUS' GCC Game and the Turn of Turkey

As experienced Mideast correspondent Elijah J. Magnier observes, in a piece picked up by Zerohedge, Daesh would have never been puffed up into a terrorist super army, if it were not for the not so covert support of the Gulf States and NATO governments. Together with Israel, which overtly aided Al-Qaeda on its borders and whose commanders confessed they preferred the Takfirists presence to that of Iranian advisers, these nations 'deep states' cynically sought to funnel the terrorists into the war against Assad and Iran.

By design, the vacuum left behind by Daesh defeat has been filled by American boots on the ground, a classified but estimated 4,000 soldiers and contractors, spread across at least nine bases large and small in the Kurdish areas of Syria. This development and the deliberately provocative announcement of an American proxy army composed of Kurds has antagonized Turkey, a former abettor of ISIS, to move against the YPG Kurds armed and trained by U.S. special forces. Despite the U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson affirming a commitment to a long term (and illegal under international law) occupation east of the Euphrates for the nominal purpose of checking Iran and pressuring Assad, it isn't clear to date whether both Moscow and Washington will again tacitly cooperate to limit Ankara's incursions into Syrian Kurdish areas.

You Occupy (Part of It), You Own It: Trump, Tillerson Can No Longer Blame Neocons if Things Go South Fast in Syria

The Russian Analyst is disgusted, but not surprised by the casual acceptance by American mainstream media and population of a Secretary of State announcing a (totally illegal under international law) occupation on the sovereign territory of a country whose internationally recognized government rejects the U.S. military presence. Certainly the hypocrisy of Washington openly dismembering the territorial integrity of a smaller state while accusing Moscow of doing the same through the much smaller Russian footprint of GRU 'polite people' in the formerly Ukrainian controlled Donbass republics is rich.

Nor is it surprising that prominent alt-media figures who would have rightly condemned such moves under Presidents Dubya or Obama like Infowars' Alex Jones go easy on the President or attribute the policy to the malign influence of neocons nominally under his command, like UN Ambassador Nikki Haley or the aggressively anti-Iranian/Russian generals National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster and Secretary of Defense James Mattis. Nonetheless, given Tillerson's reputation for having cut deals with the Russian government while running Exxon and a more pragmatic, non-neocon profile emerging from the global energy industry, his announcement of such an inherently contradictory and thus doomed policy is doubly disappointing.

No longer can Trump blame the policy on aides he inexplicably fails for the 4d chess crowd to sack (most likely due to the influence of pro-Israel megadonors like Sheldon Adelson conveyed through the derisively dubbed by the banished Steve Bannon 'Javanka', the daughter and son in law duo who convinced the CINC to strike a Syrian air field after last April's chemical false flag). If American soldiers start coming back in flag-draped coffins from Syria due to either ISIS or Damascus aligned Hezbollah attacks, Trump will own the political backlash, both from those who already hated him, and among his America First base, to whom he promised (unlike that warmonger Hillary) not to fight Assad.

With that said, as patriotic Americans we certainly want U.S. troops not to be targeted, even as we intellectually understand, by aligning their positions so closely with those of regional heavyweights Israel and Saudi Arabia, this stupid policy is putting targets on the backs of our troops. The fact that Hezbollah and the Iranian backed militias have thus far abstained from hitting U.S. troops is owed more to their alliance with Russia imposing restraints and desire to avoid a larger conflagration then to an imagined invulnerability of the Americans both military and 'civilian' (read: CIA and contractors) in predominantly Kurdish areas. Furthermore, though Daesh remnants have concentrated their suicide bombing attacks on the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and YPG Kurds, it isn't clear that they will abstain from going off their steady script of attacking Saudi/Israeli enemies and target the U.S. infidels soon, as the original Bin Laden 'led' Al-Qaeda did following their successful 1980s collaboration with CIA against the Soviets.

While Turkey Threatens Afrin, Moscow Invites Washington's Representatives to Sochi While 'containing' Iran, not Russia, is the stated objective of the policy Tillerson outlined in this week's Stanford University speech (with Iraq War proponent and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice looking on), from Moscow's perspective the Americans are creating a Cold War-style occupation zone standoff in the Levant. The fact that the U.S. presence in Iraq remains small and has not achieved much leverage over the Iranian-friendly Shia-majority government in Baghdad isn't going to preclude the Americans from trying the same type of leverage against Damascus. Yet as Elijah J. Magnier points out, the U.S. troops are useless for stopping the flow of arms and fighters overland from Iran via SAA-controlled Abu Kamal at the Syraqi border all the way to Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon. No matter how many times the Israelis bomb weapons transfers with Russian air defenses looking on, they cannot stop them all. Thus policies intended to convey American-Israeli resolve end up highlighting Washington and Tel Aviv's weaknesses instead.

"Jan. 18, 2018 (EIRNS)—In an interview with Sputnik International, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov said that Moscow had decided to send an invitation to the U.S. and UN Security Council members to participate as observers in the Syrian National Dialogue Congress being held in Sochi Jan. 29-30." -- http://larouchepub.com/pr/2018/180118_russia_invite_us.html

Even if the gap between what a few thousand troops operating in the Kurdish held territories east of the Euphrates can actually accomplish and what Tillerson says they can in terms of forcing Assad to step down weren't enough to doom the policy before it starts, there's another contradiction confounding the Americans: Turkey. The wavering NATO member state is engaged in a war of nerves against the Kurds in the enclave of Afrin, but rumors that Russian troops had pulled out to green light a full on assault by the Turkish Army have not panned out.

While Turkish and Russian defense ministers and their generals met face to face, Moscow's client in Damascus warned the Turks that any fighter jets bombing Kurds in what it still considers sovereign Syrian territory would be shot down. Those snickering at such warnings on Twitter, citing the apparent impunity Israeli Air Force jets have enjoyed while attacking targets inside Syria for years, overlook the fact that the IAF invariably uses standoff missiles fired from Lebanese air space not controlled by the Russians to strike. And that the IAF may have covered up damage if not actual confirmed kills of its aircraft as the Syrians quietly upgrade their outdated S200 and other anti-air missiles. If the Syrian Air Force's newer MiG-29s challenge the Turks, even with the Russian Air Force avoiding engagement, the Turks' F-16s will likely beat a hasty retreat back across their border.

Erdogan is mostly bluffing, expressing for domestic political consumption deep Turkish anger at the U.S. for rubbing their noses in American support for the 'terrorist' YPG, while not going too far in alienating his frenemies in the Kremlin. The Russians of course, know that Syria cannot avoid partition without Kurdish autonomy and Kurds being included in a peace settlement. In return for remaining in a united but more autonomous Syria, Damascus can offer the Kurds air defense from Turkish bombing and Russian engineering expertise for the oil and gas fields under their control (if the Kurds will agree to pay the Assad government some taxes on that energy output).

"The Turkish military fired some 40 rounds of artillery rounds into Afrin from border posts near the towns of Reyhanli, Kirikhan and Hassa in Hatay province, the private Dogan news agency reported on Friday. The state-run Anadolu Agency said buses carried Turkish commandos to Hatay on Friday while Syrian opposition fighters were also taken to the province from a Turkish-controlled zone in Syria. Canikli would not say when the operation would take place, saying authorities were working out the best timing for the assault. They were also working to minimize possible losses for Turkish troops, he said, without providing details. Canikli said the operation would be conducted by Turkish-backed Syrian opposition fighters with Turkish troop support. Turkey's state-run Anadolu Agency reported that Russian military police stationed in Afrin had begun leaving the region ahead of the possible Turkish operation, but the report could not be independently verified. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and a YPG spokesman denied that Russian troops were leaving the area. The report came a day after Turkey's military and intelligence chiefs traveled to Moscow to discuss Turkey's planned intervention." -- http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/turkey-determined-carry-offensive-syrian-enclave-52458122

What's clear this weekend is that the Turkish Army has massed armor and artillery for the Afrin shelling, but the Turks have not mobilized a sufficient number of men to storm the city. The 'Free Syrian Army' 'moderate rebels' also lack either the manpower or military competence to seize Afrin from its Kurdish defenders. On Friday pro-government network TRT World showed YPG shells having allegedly hit a Turkish hospital in Hatay province on the border:

Notwithstanding the Secretary of State's denials that DoD is creating a 'border security force' along the de facto borders of a separatist Syrian Kurdistan, the Pentagon announced that's precisely what it was doing just a few days ago. Once again, the policy is either inherently contradictory, the most likely explanation, or someone is lying. The Turks led by Erdogan have repeatedly stated that Washington has sought to deceive them about the nature of its support for the YPG and the continuance of the arms and training flow after the justification of crushing ISIS was removed -- though remnants of the Daeshbags continue to carry out largely exaggerated attacks in the Euphrates Valley, with the Americans noticeably sluggish in hot pursuit of these small ISIS units (while accusing the Russians and their Syrian hosts of failing to do enough to mop up Daesh).

Mixed Messages and the Attempt to Set Up U.S. Troops for Clashes with SAA/Hezbollah

The Russian Analyst shares W the Intelligence Insider's longstanding concern, even with a large scale Second Israel-Hezbollah War postponed, that the stage is being set for a broader confrontation with Iran, and indirectly Russia and China. Stepping back from the three way standoff between the Turks, Russians and Americans in Syria, the position of U.S. ally Saudi Arabia continues to deteriorate in Yemen. Modest territorial gains inside Yemen by the Kingdom's tribal allies have been offset by the Houthis use of increasingly numerous and sophisticated missile attacks and cross border raids on Saudi territory.

While neocons gloated about the drone bombing attack against Russia's Kheimmim air base in Syria on New Year's Eve and Russian Orthodox Christmas day, the fact remains such 'do it yourself' technology is very likely to appear in the Houthis hands soon to attack Saudi bases where American and especially British contractors work. Israel has repeatedly baited Hezbollah into direct combat through assassinations and bombing missions but so far the Iranian-backed super militia has not taken the bait, keeping its vast arsenal of missiles at ready for the war with the Zionist Entity its leadership has proclaimed as inevitable. Palestinian protests over the Jerusalem capitol move announced by the Trump Administration have been contained but increased European sympathy for the divest from Israel movement.

Now that long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds a recording of his son outside a strip club at the center of corruption investigations into his premiership, there may be more pressure in Tel Aviv for diversionary military adventures against Hezbollah or Assad's forces in Syria. The Saudi effort with Israel's support to destabilize the Hezbollah-including Lebanese government backfired. And a Trump Administration on the cusp of exposing much of the RussiaGate scandal as a Democratic and deep state fabrication is unlikely to start a major military engagement either in North Korea or the Middle East just before this November's 2018 mid term elections. As Elijah J. Magnier writes, the path of incremental mission creep remains perilous politically and militarily for the Pentagon and the Trump White House:

"There is no doubt the US doesn’t want to leave Syria and let Russia extend its presence and control, as long as it there is a possibility of Washington disturbing and diminishing Moscow’s influence in the Levant. By declaring itself an occupation force and therefore its will to form a “proxy state”, the US position justifies (to itself only but not to the American people, nor to the world) its presence for as long as it sees fit until the time comes to abandon the Kurds and leave them to their destiny. The US is mainly using as an excuse,the Iranian presence on Syrian territory and the US obsession to limit the control of Tehran over Damascus. There is no doubt that the US forces can look after their interests in Syrian occupied territory and prevent any regular force from advancing. However, the safety of its soldiers depends on the milieu these are based in, in this case an environment which is totally hostile all around it and within it .Attacks against US forces and their Kurdish proxies are not at all excluded. This is when the US will have to re-think about the necessity of its presence in a newly occupied territory, so far from home and where American lives can be lost for little return and little benefit to US national security." -- https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2018/01/17/can-a-new-us-proxy-state-in-syria-survive/

U.S. Troops in Syria Suffering a Major Attack is a Wild Card Up the Globalists' Sleeves

However, all of these rational evaluations of what ought to be rational actors leaves out many wild cards and the desperation of those determined to have their big war with Iran if not WWIII, no matter what. For that reason, the presence of several thousand Americans inside Syria remains dangerous in that a significant casualty attack on the vulnerable troops blamed on Hezbollah could be the (false flag?) spark to a conflict that drags Trump in regardless of domestic political and personal considerations.

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antoine-roquentin · 6 years

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turkey did what they’ve been threatening to do every few months for years now and invaded afrin canton with ground forces. russian forces were embedded with the kurds and generally refused to allow an invasion, but they all pulled out over the past few days. some kind of deal has been made. the kurds say that russia told them they would be protected if they gave afrin canton to the government, but they refused. it’s likely that russia wants to pressure them to give up on america as their sponsor by showing them that america will abandon them. certainly the american government tends to be sympathetic to the ypg over other factions in syria, but that’s mostly within the military, especially the army:

Earlier this week, Col Ryan Dillon, spokesman for the anti-ISIL US-led coalition, said the SDF was being transformed into a force to secure Syria’s borders in the areas under its control.

It was Col Dillon’s statements that Mr Tillerson appeared to challenge on Wednesday.

“That entire situation has been mis-portrayed, mis-described, some people misspoke. We are not creating a border security force at all,” Mr Tillerson said.

it was these remarks that likely freaked turkey out enough to invade. so far, the american response appears to be only verbal condemnation.

the turkish fsa is not likely to get far. while they have tanks and air support, the fundamental basis of their forces is the turkish-allied FSA, which has so far shown very poor performances even with turkish training. afrin is heavily mountainous, hostile terrain, on which people who despise turkey with every ounce of their being have been preparing for years for such an invasion. the kurds have a big supply of anti-tank weapons, and the turks probably don’t want to risk their good tanks. the syrian regime has allowed the ypg to transfer forces from rojava to afrin through their territory. they’d prefer kurds to die fighting the opposition than syrian forces. any territory the turks pick up is going to be ungovernable without ethnic cleansing, and tough to hold besides. there might be some initial success, but i don’t see this getting very far.

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newstfionline · 6 years

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Syria’s war could be entering its last and most dangerous phase

By Liz Sly, Washington Post, August 10, 2018

BEIRUT--As Syria’s war enters what could be its last and most dangerous stretch, the Syrian government and its allies will have to contend for the first time with the presence of foreign troops in the quest to bring the rest of the country back under President Bashar al-Assad’s control.

The government’s recent defeat of rebels in the southwest of Syria has put Assad unassailably in control of a majority of the country, his hold on power now facing no discernible military or diplomatic threat.

But at least a third of Syria remains outside government control, and those areas are occupied both by Turkish and American troops. Turkey has deployed soldiers in the northwest, in parts of the rebel-held province of Aleppo and in Idlib, which Assad has identified as the next target of an offensive. About 2,000 U.S. Special Operations forces hold sway in the northeast, in support of their Kurdish allies fighting against the Islamic State.

Iran has meanwhile entrenched its forces and allied militias alongside loyalist Syrian troops across government-held territory, stirring deep concern in Israel.

Even as the war enters its final stages, the risk that it could ignite a wider conflict has not passed, analysts say.

It will fall to Russia to steer Syria through the pitfalls ahead, as the only outside power to enjoy good relations with all the countries that have a stake in the Syrian war, including Israel and Iran. After intervening in the conflict in 2015 to save the Assad regime, Moscow has largely succeeded in balancing the competing interests of the various players, tamping down fears that the conflict could ignite a regional conflagration.

But Russia’s capacity to manage these competing concerns is limited and will be tested by the coming battles, said Riad Khawija, who heads the Dubai-based Inegma defense consultancy.

“Russia is not as much in control as it likes to appear,” he said, citing the apparent failure of recent Russian diplomacy aimed at addressing Israel’s concerns about Iran’s presence.

“Iran has invested so much in Syria, it’s not going to leave now, if ever,” he said. “So with Iran refusing to get its forces out of Syria and the Israel insistence that it leave, eventually there is going to be a clash.”

Russia’s priorities for now are to stabilize the areas already recaptured by Syrian forces, bring back at least some of the 6 million refugees who fled the country, rebuild the Syrian army, kick-start reconstruction and secure international recognition for Russian efforts through a peace settlement, said Kamal Alam of the London-based Royal United Services Institute, who was recently in Damascus.

“The Russians are aware that the areas that have been retaken are ticking time bombs, and they want to make sure there are no large-scale revenge attacks,” he said. “The war isn’t quite over, but now is the time to stabilize the country, and in reality the hard work has been done.”

The immediate priority for the Syrian government, however, is to regain the remaining territories outside its control, starting with the province of Idlib, according to recent statements by Assad and his allies.

Syrian troops who have been freed up after pacifying the south have been redeploying to the north in anticipation of an offensive in Idlib.

At the same time, Turkey has been reinforcing its observation posts in the province, which were established under an agreement with the Russians. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called Idlib a “red line” and vowed to resist any attempt to reclaim the province from Turkey’s sphere of influence, raising the risk of a showdown between his country, which is a NATO ally, and Syria, Russia and Iran.

A fight for Idlib could be more devastating than any of the previous battles. As Syrian forces recaptured other pockets of territory, the battles were settled by evacuating rebels to Idlib, which now contains as many as 70,000 fighters. That is the biggest concentration of opposition fighters yet assembled. A significant number of those are extremists belonging to al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria.

Idlib also harbors an estimated 3 million civilians, many of whom took refuge there after fleeing fighting elsewhere in the country. An assault on Idlib could trigger Syria’s largest humanitarian crisis yet and prompt a new exodus of refugees to Turkey and perhaps to Europe, analysts say.

Russian officials have made it clear they would prefer a negotiated solution for Idlib, along the lines of the one that ended the recent battle for southwestern Syria--a relatively bloodless outcome compared with bloodbaths elsewhere. In the southwest, most of the rebel groups agreed to reconcile with the Syrian government in return for a degree of local control, and some joined loyalist troops to fight for a last pocket controlled by the Islamic State.

Russia’s special envoy for Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, told the Russian news agency Tass that Russia hopes to use southwestern Syria as a model for Idlib. In the hope of avoiding a bloody battle, Russia is ready to provide “any help” to moderate rebels who agree to fight the extremist groups, he said.

The Syrian opposition is willing to entertain the prospect of such an arrangement but wants to know what it might gain in return, said Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat who defected in Washington and now works with the opposition. At a minimum, he said, the rebels in Idlib want guarantees that they will have some form of autonomy and protection, perhaps under Turkish and Russian auspices.

“This is the question,” he said. “What is the price, and what do we get?”

At least for now, the U.S.-held area of northeastern Syria is considered the least problematic. President Trump has said he wants the U.S. Special Operations forces there to stay only as long as it takes to ensure the complete defeat of the Islamic State, which is still holding out in a last pocket of shrinking territory near the Iraqi border.

The Syrian Kurds, who have been allied with U.S. forces, have embarked on talks with Damascus aimed at salvaging some form of local autonomy from their conquests.

#Syrian conflict #Idlib

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newstfionline · 6 years

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On Northern Syria Front Line, U.S. and Turkey Head Into Tense Face-off

By Rod Nordland, NY Times, Feb. 7, 2018

MANBIJ, Syria--Two senior American generals came to the front line outside the Syrian city of Manbij on Wednesday flying outsized American flags on their vehicles, in case pro-Turkish forces just the other side of the no man’s land, 20 yards away, did not realize who they were.

“We’re very proud of our positions here, and we want to make sure everybody knows it,” said Maj. Gen. Jamie Jarrard, the Special Operations commander for the American-led coalition in Iraq and Syria.

If the message to Turkey was not clear already, the overall coalition commander accompanying General Jarrard, Lt. Gen. Paul Funk, elaborated. “You hit us, we will respond aggressively. We will defend ourselves.”

The trip was the first by such senior United States military officers to the front in northern Syria since Turkey’s president threatened to attack the city of Manbij, calling it a bastion of terrorists and demanding that American forces leave.

But the Americans have refused, creating the potential for an unprecedented armed conflict between two NATO allies, the United States and Turkey--the latest twist on the seven-year-old war in Syria.

This part of Syria’s north was once overrun by Islamic State militants. The United States and its allies, Syrian Kurdish fighters, collaborated more than a year ago to evict them.

But in the effort, the United States angered Turkey, which has long regarded the Kurds as enemies. Now the Turks are turning their guns on the Kurds, setting up a possible fight with the Americans.

General Funk had an automatic pistol slung across his vest. His three uniform stars would have been easily visible with binoculars to the Syrian militias aligned with Turkey on the other side of the front line, as he stood on a sandbagged roof. He was surrounded by Special Forces soldiers, and Arab and Kurdish fighters from the Manbij Military Council, the government authority in the region.

The two generals arrived at the border post in unarmored cars, in an entourage that included several mine-resistant armored personnel carriers, as well as Land Cruisers for Special Forces soldiers, with antennas, spare tires and jerrycans on their roofs.

Manbij is the farthest west that the Americans, aligned with the Syrian Democratic Forces insurgent group in the fight against the Islamic State, are stationed.

Showing off the Stars and Stripes in this city is not at all extraordinary. American military vehicles usually fly flags on what they call de-escalation patrols through the city and province of Manbij. The patrols are so frequent that children have learned to flash the thumb-and-little finger wiggle gesture popularized by American soldiers.

Women in full chadors smile and wave at their convoys, and American soldiers even visit the crowded bazaar in unarmored cars, disembarking on foot with only sidearms, according to locals--unusual for any place at risk of an Islamic State attack. “I would feel very comfortable anywhere in northeastern Syria,” General Jarrard said.

Similarly the relationship between the Americans and the Manbij Military Council is comfortable and cordial, and the Americans have praised its efforts to restore a stable government. Standing on the front-line rooftop, General Funk addressed the military council’s commander, Muhammed Abu Adel: “The lasting defeat of ISIS is the most important mission for this group,” he told Commander Adel, a Kurd, although the majority of his fighters are local Arabs. “It’s in your hands now and you’re doing a good job. One team, one fight.”

Commander Adel thanked him, and said he hoped American air power would continue to assist his forces. The general did not respond directly.

The American support for Manbij has particularly alarmed Turkey. It is waging a military campaign to take the Kurdish-held city of Afrin, 80 miles west, while pursuing an unusually outspoken public relations campaign to threaten Manbij and make the Americans depart, so that Syrian militias aligned with Turkish forces can take it from America’s Kurdish-led allies.

On Tuesday, once again, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey criticized the American support of Manbij. “They tell us, ‘Don’t come to Manbij.’ We will come to Manbij to hand over these territories to their rightful owners,” Mr. Erdogan said in a speech to his party. The Turkish deputy prime minister went so far as to suggest American troops in Manbij are wearing uniforms of the Kurdish People’s Protection Forces, or Y.P.G., and said they could become targets.

The Y.P.G. dominates Kurdish areas of northern Syria and is the main component of the Syrian Democratic Forces, the American allies in the fight against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS and Daesh.

But in Manbij, both the Americans and the Kurds insist, the defending force is the Manbij Military Council, an ally of the Syrian Democratic Forces, but independent and composed mostly of Arab fighters.

The Turks depict the Y.P.G. as a version of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party or P.K.K., a separatist group regarded as a terrorist organization by the United States and Europe.

“If we are terrorist,” said Commander Adel, during the generals’ visit Wednesday, “O.K., then all of the countries in the coalition and these American soldiers here are terrorist too?” The American-led anti-ISIS coalition has more than 70 member countries.

The American military has sought to persuade Turkey that the Manbij forces are reliable allies, and important in the fight against ISIS elsewhere. Previously, the Americans hosted meetings between Turkish military officers and Manbij officers to try to convince them, but those meetings ceased this year. General Funk said the Turks had declined an invitation to Manbij this year.

The Americans have vowed to stay in Manbij and support their allies. But the American forces in Manbij number only a few hundred out of a total of 2,000 in all of northern Syria, mostly Special Operations troops. The Turks and their allied militias, the Free Syrian Army fighting around Afrin, are estimated at 20,000 in all. Both Turks and Americans have substantial air forces in the area.

Even if the Turks do not carry out their threats, the fight in Afrin has indirectly hurt the American-led fight against ISIS. As the Syrian Democratic Forces shift fighters to the battle in Afrin, they have weakened the ISIS campaign far to the east.

“It’s illogical that while we are fighting ISIS, the enemy of the world, over there, the Turks attack us in Afrin,” said Shervan Derwish, the spokesman for the Manbij Military Council. “Our fight against ISIS has had to be minimized as we reduce our power there to defend Afrin.”

American policymakers worry that the Afrin conflict, and the threat against Manbij, will degrade their Kurdish and Arab allies.

“I think our main concern is that anything that disrupts everybody’s focus on ISIS and eliminating the complete physical caliphate--and we’re close, we’re very close--something people couldn’t have imagined a year ago--anything that disrupts us or takes our eye off that prize, is not good,” General Jarrard said.

General Funk said the Americans prefer to “maintain focus on the enemy in front of you and mow him down--that’s much easier than having to look in multiple directions.”

In Manbij, initial alarm at the Turkish threats has dissipated as the Turkish campaign against Afrin, which the Turks had vowed to overrun in a few days, has dragged into a third week.

The Turks’ view is that the Kurds have imposed a system of governance in Manbij at odds with the area’s conservative, traditional society. The American military, however, says that the Kurds and their allies have managed to bring stability. “There are a lot of people that do equate them with the P.K.K., but I have not seen any indication of that in my dealings with them throughout our relationship,” General Jarrard said.

There is little doubt that the bulk of Manbij soldiers are Arabs, but their key leaders are Kurdish, with backgrounds in the Y.P.G. The Manbij Military Council leader, Muhammed Abu Adel, is Kurdish, as is Mr. Derwish, the council’s influential spokesman, who has a prominent photograph of Abdullah Ocalan on the wall of his office.

“What’s strange to me is that Turkey, as a member of NATO, is making this war against us under the name of jihad, but we are only democrats,” Mr. Derwish said. “In our society, women are free, we have equality and democracy. And they want to destroy us.”

#Syria #US military in Syria #Manbij #Turkey in Syria

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