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thefootballlife · 6 years

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Hot Takes and Winter Breaks - The 2017/18 Slovenian Prva Liga Season So Far

Originally, this was going to be part of one piece covering the major leagues of the former Yugoslavia in one go. However, it’s gotten ridiculously long so it’s being split into three bits going up over the next week or so.

Slovenian Prva Liga

The Season So Far

Olimpija started hot but their form fell away as Abass Issah got injured and failed to recover his early season form leaving Maribor to enter the winter break top by three points in spite of never really showing form that’s been all that impressive - they are as functional a side as they come. The two teams are, however, tight on goal difference and the Slovenian Cup showed that, on their day, Olimpija can deal out some punishment to Maribor.

In behind, Domzale have been lovably eccentric, spanking 6 past both Ankaran and Triglav at home yet not picking up a single point against Rudar. With manager Simon Rozman’s future up in the air a little as rumours link him to the assistant’s role and becoming heir to Matjaz Kek’s throne at Rijeka, that inconsistency probably won’t change any time soon. Rudar are pushing for third too, in spite of financial difficulties while the big disappointment have been Gorica who, in spite of having good individual attackers in part one of the season in Rifet Kapic and Kyrian Nwabueze, have been particularly poor away from home.

Ankaran prop up the table, to the surprise of no-one, while Triglav occupy the relegation playoff spot and have looked poorer as the season has gone on. It would be no shock to see the bottom two now to be the bottom two in May.

The Story of the Break

Money. Who has it and who is getting it.

Maribor, flush with Champions League cash, appear likely to be having a refresh all over the park. Summer acquisition from Rudar for free Jean Claude Billong has already moved for €2m to Benevento and they have already picked up defensive standout for Vozdovac, Sasa Ivkovic, as the replacement. Maribor’s current transfer policy of “buy from smaller clubs/markets, expose in Europe and sell on” is likely to bear more fruit given rumours linking Bosnian striker (and the man with the most wholesome instagram feed in football) Jasmin Mesanovic with a move to Germany. With Jan Mlakar coming in too, Maribor’s striking ranks are amazingly strong for the league. Furthermore, with the signing come summer 2018 of Kenan Piric, the club’s goalkeeping situation seems secure going forward.

Down the road in Ljubljana, such funding and consistency of business plan are lacking. While few could argue that Igor Biscan is doing a very good job at Stozice, the club are still a Milan Mandaric club and are, therefore, still prone to acts of self sabotage (such as the recent interview where Mandaric indicated he wished he hadn’t gone sack crazy last term, wished he had hired Slavojub Muslin, indicated he might retire in the summer if Olimpija don’t win the title or go and buy an English club because apparently lots of clubs want him). The reality for Biscan is that he is shopping in markets he knows - his main transfer this winter being a young defender from Dinamo Zagreb’s second team (no, not Lokomotiva, their actual second team!).

Meanwhile, the other big outgoing from the league this winter has been from Gorica in Rifet Kapic’s move to Grasshoppers for €500k. Kapic was the best player in the side and, in my own opinion, in the entire league and it’s hard to see exactly how a side who were struggling with meeting their expectations with Kapic in the side will absorb the loss of a player whom almost everything went through. Domzale also lost full back Jure Balkovec and how they go about replacing him will be interesting too - albeit Domzale at least can be confident they have the attacking power about the side to mean they won’t miss a left back too much.

In terms of incomings across the league, the real strengtheners so far have been Celje having acquired Mitja Lotric, Jan Andreajsic and Zan Benedicic which will give them plenty of depth to try and challenge for Europe based on the assumption that Rudar will fall away (especially if they do sell John Mary).

What to expect from the rest of the season

The situation at the bottom is very unlikely to change - Ankaran are so handicapped by having to play games on the opposite side of the country to where they are based that they aren’t going to be turning things around. In terms of the relegation playoff spot, you would expect Triglav to remain in it for the rest of the season, in spite of possessing the player with the greatest beard in all of football, Luka Majcen. Ankaran are detached from them and Triglav seem likely to become detached from Aluminij and Krsko above them given both those latter sides have strengthened. Gorica may fall towards that direction but should surely have enough in hand and enough quality in the side to not end up involved in the playoff shakeup (although Milan Srebrnic surely needs a good start to the second part of the season to keep his job long term).

Further up the table, Rudar’s first half of the season form will surely drop off given the loss of both John Mary and Damjan Vuklisevic. John Mary, in particular, leaves a big hole and it’s hard to see where goals will come from. There is still time to find a replacement, but his are awfully big shoes to fill. This should leave the door open for Celje to take fourth and a (probable - if they or Olimpija win the Cup) European place - Jan Andrejasic is proven at this level and Mitja Lotric may not have had a good time in Cyprus, but he can get back on track in more familiar surroundings and should be a good candidate to impress.

But most of the attention, of course, will go to the top three. Domzale should have third locked up given they are a clear leap in quality better than the rest of the league but just are incapable of getting results vs Olimpija and Maribor. Expect them to dole out the occasional thrashing before just not getting the job done when it really matters.

Which leaves the league between Maribor and Olimpija. It would take a brave man to bet against Maribor, to be quite honest - they remain as having the best squad on paper and have the resources to throw at making it even better should they so wish. Olimpija don’t have that luxury but do have a very solid core of a team as long as Milan Mandaric doesn’t threaten to rip it up (easier said than done) - a fit and in form Issah Abass would serve as a pretty strong argument towards Olimpija maintaining a title challenge.

However, more important than that is Milan Mandaric not selling up and selling the crown jewels with it - Issah Abass, Ricky Alves and Nik Kapun among others would all surely have interest from elsewhere and it’s worth noting that a fair amount of Slovenian Stenography has been devoted to what happens and already Kenan Bajric has moved up to Slovan Bratislava. Does Mandaric sell up and sell the side from under Igor Biscan to do it or does he allow this team till the summer to grow at which point it could be sold for more money and, potentially, having achieved a league win.

And that’s perhaps the most important factor in determining where the title goes. It’s impossible to have faith that Olimpija won’t do what they did last season - embark upon a period of complete self destruction and throw their chances away in a blaze of acrimony. Biscan has shown himself to be too good a manager to deserve that and he has a team capable of at least pushing Maribor all the way - even if their last three games see them travelling away to both Maribor and Domzale suggesting a real likelihood they could fall at the very last hurdle.

As for Maribor, there is little to say - they have the best of almost everything in the league and are nothing if not an efficient side that know how to win games and know how to win titles. At this level, they have an embarrassment of riches up front and have players who have grown into the side and into form as the season has gone on in Mesanovic, Bajde and Kramaric as well as the tried and trusted consistency of league record scorer Tavares and in Dare Vrsic, who probably had a big impact on steadying the ship at the club after an indifferent first few games. Oh, and they have Luka Zahovic eventually coming back from injury who may have done nothing this season but, if fit and in form, is possibly the most versatile and dangerous striker in the division.

In the season preview, I predicted Maribor would run away with the title in facile fashion. In reality, this season has almost unfolded the same as last - two teams keeping pace with each other to the winter break. Last season, Maribor put their foot on the gas in the Spring and raced away as Olimpija spluttered.

A repeat of that might just be the safest prediction this time around.

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