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chemwhat · 6 months

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Chromium hexacarbonyl CAS#: 13007-92-6

IdentificationPhysical DataSpectraRoute of Synthesis (ROS)Safety and HazardsOther Data Identification Product NameChromium hexacarbonylIUPAC Namecarbon monoxide;chromiumMolecular StructureCAS Registry Number 13007-92-6EINECS Number235-852-4MDL NumberMFCD00010945Beilstein Registry NumberNo data availableSynonymschromium(0) hexacarbonyl, hexa-carbonylchromate(0), hexacarbonyl chromium(0), hexacarbonylchromate(0), hexacarbonylchromium(0), hexacarbonylchromium(O), chromium hexacarbonyl; CAS Number: 13007-92-6;CAS No.:13007-92-6Molecular FormulaC6CrO6Molecular Weight220.057InChIInChI=1S/6CO.Cr/c6*1-2;InChI KeyKOTQLLUQLXWWDK-UHFFFAOYSA-NCanonical SMILES#.#.#.#.#.#. Patent InformationPatent IDTitlePublication DateWO2008/77911LIGANDS AND CATALYST SYSTEMS FOR THE OLIGOMERIZATION OF OLEFINIC MONOMERS2008 Physical Data AppearanceWhite crystalSolubilityinsolubleRefractive index1.5560 (estimate) Melting Point, °C Comment (Melting Point)130with decomposition149 - 150 Boiling Point, °CPressure (Boiling Point), Torr147.4760 Density, g·cm-3Measurement Temperature, °CType (Density)-173.16crystallographic1.865-173.16crystallographic1.768crystallographic1.766 - 1.772crystallographic1.77crystallographic1.7718 Description (Association (MCS))Comment (Adsorption (MCS))Partner (Association (MCS))Adsorptionsorption diagramα-Fe2O3(0001)MCM-41Adsorptionsorption diagramsilicaAdsorptionPdsilica-aluminaAdsorptionsilicaAdsorptionCu(100) Spectra Description (NMR Spectroscopy)Nucleus (NMR Spectroscopy)Solvents (NMR Spectroscopy)Temperature (NMR Spectroscopy), °C 13Cchloroform-d18013CCD2Cl2-63.16Spectrum13CC6D5CD3=toluene-d8-43.15Linewidth of NMR absorption13CCDCl321Linewidth of NMR absorption17OCDCl33813Cmethylene chloride=methylene dichloride22 Description (IR Spectroscopy)Solvent (IR Spectroscopy)Temperature (IR Spectroscopy), °CSignals, cm-1Intensity of IR bands, Bandspotassium bromideSpectrumcyclohexane25BandshexaneBandstetrahydrofuran1983Bandsgaseous matrix-261.161984BandsKBr1999Spectrumfurther solvent(s)Spectrumgaseous matrix-261.16 Chromium hexacarbonyl CAS 13007-92-6 IRChromium hexacarbonyl CAS 13007-92-6 XRDChromium hexacarbonyl CAS 13007-92-6 HPLCHPLC ConditionsColumn : 250 mm×4.6 mm 5μm ; Wavelength : 240 nm ; Temperature : 35°C ; Flowing rate : 1.0 ml/min ; Injection volume : 5μL ; Time : 20 min ; Mobile phase : Water : Acetonitrile = 32 : 68 ; Preparation : Transfer 0.1 grams of the sample into a 100 mL volumetric flask, and dissolve it to volume with chromatography-grade n-hexane using ultrasonication. Description (Mass Spectrometry)Comment (Mass Spectrometry)SpectrumFragmentation patternSpectrumMolecular peak, Fragmentation patternMolecular peakMolecular peak, Fragmentation patternmass spectrometry Description (UV/VIS Spectroscopy)Solvent (UV/VIS Spectroscopy)Comment (UV/VIS Spectroscopy)Absorption Maxima (UV/VIS), nmSpectrum, Band assignmentgas200 nm - 400 nmSpectrum, Band assignmentneat (no solvent, gas phase)200 nm - 400 nmSpectrumCHCl3220 nm - 500 nm258Band assignmentacetonitrile2.88 eV - 5.11 eV250 nm - 355 nmSpectrumhexane200 nm - 500 nmBand assignmentcyclohexane280 Description (Raman Spectroscopy)BandsRaman Route of Synthesis (ROS) Route of Synthesis (ROS) of Chromium hexacarbonyl CAS 13007-92-6 ConditionsYieldIn diethylene glycol mixt. Cr(CO)6 and bis(diphenylphosphino)methane in diglyme was heated at 135°C for 3.5 h;82%in boiling solvent or in bomb tube at 140-190°C;;77%In diethylene glycol other Radiation; mixt. Cr(CO)6 and 10 % excess bis(diphenylphosphino)methane was suspended in diglyme and under microwave irradiation was heated at 180°Cfor 5 min; react. mixt. was cooled to room temp., methanol was added, ppt. was collected by filtration and dried in vacuo; elem. anal.;55%With sodium tetrahydroborate In butan-1-ol at 105℃; under 760.051 Torr; for 0.333333h; Microwave irradiation; Inert atmosphere; Green chemistry;54%In tetrahydrofuran Irradiation (UV/VIS); (Ar); photolysis of a soln. of chromium complex and ligand in THF for 45min, stirring for 2 h; concn., column chromy. (silica gel, CH2Cl2/hexanes 1:10);26% Safety and Hazards Pictogram(s)SignalDangerGHS Hazard StatementsH301 (93.48%): Toxic if swallowed H331 (10.87%): Toxic if inhaled Information may vary between notifications depending on impurities, additives, and other factors. Precautionary Statement CodesP261, P264, P270, P271, P301+P310, P304+P340, P311, P321, P330, P403+P233, P405, and P501(The corresponding statement to each P-code can be found at the GHS Classification page.) Other Data TransportationClass 6.1; Packaging Group: III; UN Number:3466Under the room temperature and away from lightHS Code293190StorageUnder the room temperature and away from lightShelf Life1 yearMarket PriceUSD 4500/kg DruglikenessLipinski rules componentMolecular Weight220.058logP0.402HBA6HBD0Matching Lipinski Rules4Veber rules componentPolar Surface Area (PSA)102.42Rotatable Bond (RotB)6Matching Veber Rules2 Laboratory Use and HandlingUse PatternPreparation of adducts with carbon nanotubesdissotiates under modulated MIR pulsesinformation on usestable in weakly basic mediaundergoes thermal decompn. at 503-613 Kin solution sensitive to lightstable only in the dark; ppt. of brown flakes in diffuse light;decomposition with fuming nitric acid and indifferent against cold KOH, mineral acids, Br2, I2 Read the full article

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reflexoesbiblicas · 3 years

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O SISTEMA RELIGIOSO

O CRISTIANISMO PAGÃO:

_ O sistema religioso católico e protestante, são frutos do mesmo “cristianismo pagão”, criado pelo imperador Constantino, no início do século IV, oriundo do sincretismo religioso:

_ Quando, o Império Romano já enfraquecido, após travar diversas batalhas contra a “Igreja de Jesus”, percebeu que quanto mais seguidores de Cristo eram mortos, muitos outros surgiam. O imperador realizou uma jogada de mestre, vendo que não conseguiria destruir a Igreja com batalhas, estrategicamente, decidiu unir-se a ela e transforma-la em uma religião imperial.

_ Na verdade, este cristianismo pagão, foi uma das estratégias de Satanás, a qual vem confundindo grande parte dos cristãos até os dias de hoje, e corrompendo o Evangelho de Cristo.

_ A “Igreja de Jesus” transformou-se no cristianismo de Constantino, tendo a fé, a doutrina e os ensinos dos apóstolos corrompidos; uma religião oficial, aliada à política e ao poder do império romano; no decorrer dos séculos, o sistema religioso foi introduzindo gradativamente várias doutrinas pagãs, vindo a convencer e até mesmo obrigar os cristãos a aceitar as leis e os mandamentos da atual instituição religiosa.

EXORTAÇÃO AOS SACERDOTES:

_ Acredito que a maioria dos sacerdotes, “padres ou pastores”, são falsos mestres e sinagogas de Satanás. Entretanto, acredito que uma pequena parte destes sacerdotes são homens de bem, porém, talvez por falta de conhecimento bíblico ou por seguir uma tradição religiosa, oriunda de seus pais ou entes queridos, persistem no erro, sem perceber que estão cegos e caminhando de encontro ao abismo, e o pior, que são responsáveis pelas ovelhas que os seguem.

(Ml 2.1-3; Mt 24.24; 2Pe 2.1-3; Jd 3-4, 10-13, 17-20; Ap 2.9)

ALGUMAS ESTRATÉGIAS DO SISTEMA RELIGIOSO:

1) O vocábulo “ Igreja ”, que na verdade é sinônimo de “seguidores de Jesus” ou de “pessoas convertidas a Cristo” ou ainda de o “povo de Deus”, foi deturpado pelo sistema:

_ Passou a ser identificada e compreendida, por “edifícios” - “prédios”, ou seja, agora o vocábulo igreja denota o lugar destinado para reunião dos religiosos cristãos.

_ Veja que: “Jesus nos exorta a contribuir e ajudar a Igreja”.

(Ef 2.11-22; 2Pe 2.4-10)

2) O “ Templo ” do judaísmo, edifício de pedras, destruído no primeiro século d.C., foi o local destinado aos sacrifícios de animais, aos rituais de sangue e outras cerimonias religiosas; passou a ser símbolo dos templos cristãos e equiparado aos templos das diversas religiões pagãs da época.

_ Todas as religiões existentes no império romano, foram obrigadas a se converterem ao cristianismo imperial, sob pena de morte; e seus respectivos templos transformados em igrejas.

_ Entretanto, na Nova Aliança, ou seja, para a Igreja de Deus, o vocábulo “templo” faz referência ao corpo do crente, equivalente a “santuário” ou “tabernáculo”.

_ Veja que: a bíblia afirma que a “Igreja é a casa de Deus”.

(1Co 6.19; 2Co 6.16; Ef 2.22-22; Hb 3.1-6; 2Pe 1.13-14)

3) O “ Dízimo ”, era obrigatório segundo a Lei Mosaica, tinha o propósito de manter os rituais e sacrifícios levíticos, realizados no templo judaico; entretanto, Jesus após ser levantado na Cruz, cumpriu o judaísmo, extinguiu todos os sacrifícios e rituais levíticos, portando, excluiu o dízimo, as ofertas alçadas e todos os rituais contidos na lei mosaica.

(Ne 10.36-37; Hb 7.5; Mt 5.17; Jo 3.14-15; Hb 8.6-13)

_ O dízimo judaico, “o qual nunca existiu na Igreja de Jesus”, passou a ser obrigatório no cristianismo de Constantino, sendo utilizado para a construção e manutenção dos templos cristãos, dos rituais pagãos e principalmente do enriquecimento dos sacerdotes.

(Dt 26.12-13; Ml 1.1; 2.1-3, 7-9; 3.5, 8-10)

_ O sistema corrompe os ensinos de Jesus e dos apóstolos, impedindo que os religiosos cumpram o mandamento de ajudar o seu próximo, o necessitado, o pobre, o injusto, o órfão, o mendigo, com suas ofertas e caridade. Deturpam suas mentes, doutrinando-as e fazendo-as acreditar que o ato de não dizimar trará maldição e desgraça em suas vidas, pelo fato de estarem roubando a Deus, “a maior de todas as falácias bíblicas”.

(At 20.35; 1Co 16.1-3; 2Co 8.7-15, 20-21; 9.1, 6-15; Tg 2.14-17; 4.17)

_ O religioso, será sim amaldiçoado, mas porque não ama o próximo, como Jesus ensinou, e também porque financia, com seus dízimos e ofertas, um sistema corrupto e pagão.

(Mt 25.31-46; Tg 1.27; 4.17)

4) As “ Obras ” que Deus requer da “Igreja”, é o fruto individual do crente, resultante da santificação do Espírito Santo, que resulta no estilo de vida dos santos, o qual é o verdadeiro testemunho e a propagação do evangelho de Cristo.

_ Já o sistema religioso, identifica as boas obras como sendo: os serviços prestados segundo orientação do sacerdote, em prol do templo de pedras, do bom funcionamento do culto teatral, da propaganda para o aumento de membros e da pregação de um evangelho corrompido.

(Jo 6.28-29; Gl 5.22-25)

5) Pela “ Graça ” os que creem em Cristo, recebem de Deus os meios para adquirir a salvação e a vida eterna; gratuitamente de Deus, por meio do sacrifício expiatório que Jesus realizou na Cruz.

_ Mas o sistema doutrinou a mente do religioso, de que a salvação está condicionada ao batismo, ou às reuniões no templo, ou ao pagamento dos dízimos, ou ao parar de pecar, ou obedecer às leis e os mandamentos, ou partir do pão, ou fazer boas obras, ou receber o perdão e a benção do sacerdote por meio de sua intercessão.

(Tt 3.3-8; 1Jo 2.1)

_ Que, “a salvação está condicionada à prática religiosa”: Quando o religioso acredita que precisa realizar algo além do “Crer no sacrifício de Jesus” para poder ser salvo; na verdade, ele estará buscando apoiar-se na prática da Lei; e desta maneira, estará abandonando a Nova Aliança, desprezando o Sangue de Cristo e retirando o mérito que se faz jus; portanto se colocando embaixo de maldição e caindo da graça.

(Gl 3.8-13; 5.1, 4; Hb 10.28-29, 35, 38-39)

6) O “ Altar ” do templo judaico, era o único local onde os judeus entregavam seus sacrifícios, em prol da expiação de seus pecados; ou seja, no altar era derramado o sangue de um animal inocente, que morria no lugar do ofertante pecador, assim receberia o perdão de seus pecados.

_ Para o sistema religioso: o altar é o local mais sagrado do interior dos templos de pedras, é uma plataforma mais elevada, onde se encontra o púlpito, de onde o sacerdote executa o seu sermão; local que representa a presença de Deus, onde os membros depositam seus sacrifícios (dízimo e outros), confessam os seus pecados e recebem o perdão e as bênçãos por intermédio do sacerdote.

_ Entretanto, na Igreja de Jesus, só existe um altar onde os salvos depositam seus “sacrifícios espirituais” (amor a Deus e ao próximo), aonde verdadeiramente recebem o perdão e a salvação; este altar é a “ Cruz ”, a qual o Filho de Deus foi levantado e derramou seu sangue em favor de todo aquele que crê.

(Jo 3.14-15; Rm 12.1; Cl 1.19-20; 2.13-14; 3.1-4; Hb 9.24-28; 12.1-2; 13.15-16)

7) “ Religião ”: duas coisas que todas as religiões ensinam é que a humanidade é de alguma forma separada de Deus e que precisa se reconciliar com Ele, e que procura resolver esse problema através da obediência a regras ou rituais.

_ O sistema ensina que o homem depende de uma religião para a reconciliação.

_ Entretanto, o verdadeiro “Evangelho de Cristo” resolve este problema ao reconhecer que só Deus pode corrigir essa separação, e que Ele já fez isso, quando Jesus foi levantado na Cruz do Calvário.

(Jo 1.1, 10-13; 3.16; 14.6; Rm 10.9-10; Ef 2.8-9; Cl 1.19-22; 1Jo 2.1-2)

EXORTAÇÃO PARA REFLEXÃO:

_ A “ Igreja de Deus ” não é uma instituição religiosa, não se baseia nem em regras, nem em rituais e não está confinada em templos de pedras, uma vez que, Deus não habita em templos feitos por mãos humanas.

_ A Igreja é um edifício, construído por componentes vivos, “pedras vivas”; pessoas convertidas a Cristo e reconciliadas a Deus, que buscam viver um estilo de vida revelado no Evangelho do Senhor Jesus.

_ A Igreja é uma sociedade, composta de todos os homens, de todos os tempos e lugares do mundo; que deixaram de andar nas trevas e passaram a andar na luz, porque Deus é luz, e assim, andam em comunhão uns com os outros.

(At 5.11; 11.22; 12.5; 17.24; 2Co 3.10-17; Ef 2.19-22; 1Pe 2.5; 1Jo 1.3-10)

Rener Luz

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earthquake-breaking-news · 4 years

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Moderate earthquake, 5.11 mag has occurred near Maneadero in B.C. in MX

Earthquake News on http://www.earthquakenewstoday.com/2020/08/17/moderate-earthquake-5-11-mag-has-occurred-near-maneadero-in-b-c-in-mx/

Moderate earthquake, 5.11 mag has occurred near Maneadero in B.C. in MX

A moderate earthquake with magnitude 5.11 (ml/mb) was detected on Monday near Ensenada, Guadalupe Victoria, Rodolfo Sánchez Taboada, San Felipe, Vicente Guerrero, El Sauzal, Doctor Alberto Oviedo Mota, Mexico. The temblor was detected at 15:30:33/3:30 pm (UTC/GMT) at a depth of 17.68 km (11 miles). A tsunami warning has been issued. How did you react? Was there any damage?

#B.C.#Delta #Doctor Alberto Oviedo Mota #El Sauzal #Ensenada #Guadalupe Victoria #Maneadero #Mexico #MX #Rodolfo Sánchez Taboada #San Felipe #Vicente Guerrero

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tamarajuana · 5 years

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2019 Market Outlook for Lee County

The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019.

About the presentation:

Data from MLS (exported 1/14/2019 9:26 AM) and public records.

Trended with Microsoft Excel.

Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.

The information was prepared for the use of Steelbridge Realty and shared at the meeting.

youtube

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?

December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that.

Let��s talk about the December 2018.

In my opinion, the stock market correcting was a few things:

Wall Street traders are/were reallocating for a cyclical bear market.

They did this because of Fed Bank rate hikes.

When the prime lending rate breaks 5.5%, we generally have a recession in 9 to 18 months.

Our leverage structure as a result of the aftermath of 2008 is different than in previous cycles.

High-Frequency trading went wild as a result.

The Plunge Protection Team Gone got involved.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018

2017

2018

% Difference

Sales Volume

$5,584,071,334$6,164,000,69710.39%Sales Counts19,45320,649

6.15%

Average Price

$287,055$298,513

3.99%

Median Price$219,998$227,900

3.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics

December 2017 versus December 2018

20172018

% Difference

Volume

$449,669,822$415,682,106-7.56%Counts1,6501,336

-19.03%

Average

$272,527$311,13914.17%Median$218,000$230,000

5.50%

The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year Built

There is a seesaw going on in the market between resales and new construction. Right now new construction is offering a quality product at a slightly higher price. From our experience, the consumer is recognizing the value and will to pay that premium.

This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.

Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count Patterns

Almost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by price

The bubbles of sales activity by price showed the market is essentially the same year over year with the difference in price. This is essentially inflation. Below, is the chart for December 2017 versus December 2018.

The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the City

This is the entire year versus the entire year.

By City% Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Sales Volume

Counts

Average Price

St. James City

19.76%19.35%

0.34%

Sanibel

23.66%15.09%7.44%Punta Gorda18.51%14.29%

3.70%

North Fort Myers

10.61%9.74%0.79%Miromar Lakes20.27%22.54%

-1.85%

Lehigh Acres

9.81%0.47%9.29%Fort Myers Beach3.98%7.53%

-3.30%

Fort Myers

11.33%7.05%3.99%Estero14.89%12.25%

2.35%

Captiva

8.01%-14.10%25.75%

Cape Coral

7.28%3.71%

3.44%

Bonita Springs

4.40%5.52%-1.06%Bokeelia1.84%-0.89%

2.76%

Alva

37.11%28.03%

7.09%

Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.

December vs December% Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

VolumeCounts

Average Price

St. James City

-0.51%0.00%-0.51%

Sanibel

-10.31%-20.83%

13.29%

Punta Gorda-4.08%11.11%

-13.68%

North Fort Myers

-17.00%-28.87%16.68%

Miromar Lakes

-18.96%40.00%-42.11%Lehigh Acres-15.79%-18.54%

3.37%

Fort Myers Beach21.64%23.53%

-1.53%

Fort Myers

-16.59%-19.54%3.67%Estero15.48%-11.54%

30.54%

Captiva

-30.60%-50.00%38.79%

Cape Coral

-25.50%-28.85%4.70%

Bonita Springs

49.96%5.98%

41.49%

Bokeelia

45.72%10.00%32.47%Alva70.63%20.00%

42.19%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015.

The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property type

Sales Counts by Property Type

2017

2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

12,51913,295

6.20%

Villa Attached8118849.00%Low Rise (1-3)3,4663,643

5.11%

Mid Rise (4-7)

7097789.73%Townhouse742738

-0.54%

High Rise (8+)

5225220.00%Manufactured587702

19.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type

Average Price 2017Average Price 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

$319,728$335,4704.92%

Villa Attached

$207,076$222,2127.31%

Low Rise (1-3)

$206,005$209,9481.91%Mid Rise (4-7)$266,539$263,556

-1.12%

Townhouse

$187,575$195,2264.08%High Rise (8+)$512,338$526,010

2.67%

Manufactured

$106,816$110,881

3.81%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics

20172018The difference by % year over year.

Number of cash sales

7,9888,306

3.98%

Cash %41.06%40.22%

-2.04%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics

20172018The difference by % year over year.

Bank Owned

630454-27.94%

Bank Owned %

3.24%2.20%

-32.11%

Short Sale

10079-21.00%Short Sale %0.51%0.38%

-25.58%

Total Distressed3.75%2.58%

-31.22%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics

20172018

The difference by % year over year.

Gulf Access Counts

276427971.19%

Gulf Access % of sales counts

14.21%13.55%

-4.67%

Waterfront Sales Counts

662070286.16%Waterfront % of sales counts34.03%34.04%

0.01%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overview

As of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City

City

Active listings# of Sales in the last 12 months12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Lehigh Acres7462143179

Cape Coral

261358464875Fort Myers31446651554

Alva

80164146North Fort Myers531107389

Estero

80714251197Bokeelia671089

Matlacha

213238St. James City12517915

City

Active listings# of Sales in the last 12 months12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Bonita Springs

119917101438Punta Gorda51726

Fort Myers Beach

363465399

Miromar Lakes

74807

Sanibel34334729

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code

Postal Code

Active listingsannual sales countsmonthly absorptionMonths of inventory

33972

104350294

33971

15150442

33976

1143352843390715944737

33905

2246155143399130282869

33974

1213302843390932287873

33973

225855

33990

26669358

33967

2195264453393623656347

33919462110292

33917

2866315353396616736631

33914

7261517126633928512105288

33913

4789708163390119438832

33904

5581103926

33912

355661556

33993

46886172

33903

2484473773391622038932

34135

83213891167341358321389116

33908

8161355113733922671099

33956

1261791583395551726

33931

3664683993413456958148

33957

3413462912

34119

2424212

34110

29242

In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market update

The negative price pressure from the last cycle was driven by distressed sales. This was the aftermath of a mania. We prepare a report each month about this, here is a link to the December 2018 Lee County Florida foreclosure report.

A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.

Most agents can not see past their own financial status.

There are a lot of agents right now. These are only Residential sales in the MLS.

–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018.

–4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018.

Trends to Watch

2018 was pretty awesome across the mean.

3 months had more than 2,000 sales!

That may be hard to beat.

Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?

There are 153 homes with a year built 2017 and newer, that are active as of 1/16/2019.

843 have sold in the last 365 days.

That is 2.17 months inventory.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)

This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle.

This chart shows the growth of residential debt, notice at the time of this chart, it has not surpassed the levels of the last cycle. I not saying it will not correct in the next correction but this is illuminating as to potential levels and intensity of correction.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion

2018 was a great year from a statistical perspective.

It may be tough, just by the sheer numbers, to beat that year.

In 2016, all of the economic talking heads were calling for a recession 2 years out. In 2018, they were saying the same thing. At some point, it has to happen.

We have 2 different economic trends happening in real estate. The Baby Boomer generation retirement and the Millenial/Gen Z coming of age. Each will have different and specific impacts on the market.

This market does not share the same modalities of the 2006 crash. If and when a correction happens, it will be different in intensity and duration. Using the last correction as a playbook can be problematic.

December 2018 was pretty awful from a statistical point of view, January 2019 appears to be on the same path from a year over year perspective. Is this a trend or just the economy playing wait and see with the Macro pictures trials and tribulations?

If you have Real Estate related questions call 239 694 3300 or use the form below.

Steelbridge Realty LLC is a Licensed Real Estate Brokerage that utilizes cutting-edge marketing techniques and data-driven Real Estate solutions in today’s ever-changing environment. Our group of professionals have decades of experience and have navigated through many business cycles. Our diverse background gives us the tools to guide people towards successful decisions.

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Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County

The post 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County appeared first on Steelbridge Realty LLC.

source https://northfortmyersonline.com/2019/01/28/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county/ from Steelbridge Realty LLC https://steelbridgerealtyllc.blogspot.com/2019/01/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county_28.html

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the-bluespirit · 1 year

Photo

#miraculous ladybug #mledit #marinette dupain-cheng #adrien agreste #adrienette #gifs #*#ml 5.11 #ml spoilers

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chemwhat · 1 year

Text

Vibegron CAS#: 1190389-15-1

IdentificationPhysical DataSpectraRoute of Synthesis (ROS)Safety and HazardsOther Data Identification Product NameVibegronIUPAC Name(6S)-N-pyrrolidin-2-yl]methyl]phenyl]-4-oxo-7,8-dihydro-6H-pyrrolopyrimidine-6-carboxamide Molecular StructureCAS Registry Number 1190389-15-1SynonymsVIBEGRON1190389-15-1KRP-114VGemtesaMK-4618(S)-N-(4-(((2S,5R)-5-((R)-hydroxy(phenyl)methyl)pyrrolidin-2-yl)methyl)phenyl)-4-oxo-4,6,7,8-tetrahydropyrrolopyrimidine-6-carboxamideM5TSE03W5UC26H28N4O3Molecular FormulaC26H28N4O3Molecular Weight444.5InChI InChI=1S/C26H28N4O3/c31-24-14-15-27-23-13-12-22(30(23)24)26(33)29-19-8-6-17(7-9-19)16-20-10-11-21(28-20)25(32)18-4-2-1-3-5-18/h1-9,14-15,20-22,25,28,32H,10-13,16H2,(H,29,33)/t20-,21+,22-,25+/m0/s1 InChI KeyDJXRIQMCROIRCZ-XOEOCAAJSA-N Patent InformationPatent IDTitlePublication DateUS2009/253705HYDROXYMETHYL PYRROLIDINES AS BETA 3 ADRENERGIC RECEPTOR AGONISTS2009 Physical Data Spectra Description (NMR Spectroscopy)Nucleus (NMR Spectroscopy)Solvents (NMR Spectroscopy)Temperature (NMR Spectroscopy), °C Frequency (NMR Spectroscopy), MHzSpectrum1Hdimethylsulfoxide-d626.84400Chemical shifts, Spectrum1Hdimethylsulfoxide-d626.84500COSY (Correlation Spectroscopy), Spectrum1H, 1Hdimethylsulfoxide-d626.84500ROESY (Rotating frame Overhauser Enhancement Spectroscopy), Spectrum1H, 1Hdimethylsulfoxide-d626.84500HSQC (Heteronuclear Single Quantum Coherence), Spectrum1H, 13Cdimethylsulfoxide-d626.84HMBC (Heteronuclear Multiple Bond Coherence), Spectrum1H, 13Cdimethylsulfoxide-d626.84Spectrum13Cdimethylsulfoxide-d626.84126 Route of Synthesis (ROS) Route of Synthesis (ROS) of vibegron-cas-1190389-15-1 ConditionsYieldStage #1: tert-butyl(2R,5S)-2--5-pyrimidin-6-yl]carbonyl}amino)benzyl]pyrrolidine-1-carboxylate With trifluoroacetic acid In dichloromethane at 20℃; for 1.5h;Stage #2: With sodium hydrogencarbonate pH=8 - 9;60%Stage #1: tert-butyl(2R,5S)-2--5-pyrimidin-6-yl]carbonyl}amino)benzyl]pyrrolidine-1-carboxylate With trifluoroacetic acid In dichloromethane at 20℃; for 1.5h;Stage #2: With sodium hydrogencarbonate pH=8 - 9;60%Experimental ProcedureTo a solution of the intermediate from Step A (2.50 g, 4.59 mmol) in dichloromethane (40 ml) was added trifluoroacetic acid (15 ml). The reaction mixture was stirred at ambient temperature for 1.5 h. After removal of the volatiles, saturated NaHCO3 was added to make the PH value to 8-9. The mixture was then extracted with dichloromethane. The combined organic layers were dried over Na2SO4. After concentration, crystallization from methanol/acetonitrile afforded the title compound as a white solid (1.23 g, 60%). 1H NMR (DMSO-d6): δ 10.40 (s, 1H), 7.91 (d, J=6.7 Hz, 1H), 7.49 (d, J=8.3 Hz, 2H), 7.32-7.26 (m, 4H), 7.21 (m, 1H), 7.15 (d, J=8.4 Hz, 2H), 6.23 (d, J=6.7 Hz, 1H), 5.11 (dd, J=9.6, 2.9 Hz, 1H), 5.10 (br, 1H), 4.21 (d, J=7.1 Hz, 1H), 3.20-3.00 (m, 4H), 2.66-2.51 (m, 3H), 2.16 (m, 1H), 1.57 (m, 1H), 1.38 (m, 1H), 1.29-1.23 (m, 2H). LC-MS 445.3 (M+1). Safety and Hazards No data available Other Data TransportationUnder the room temperature and away from lightHS CodeStorageUnder the room temperature and away from lightShelf Life1 yearMarket Price DruglikenessLipinski rules componentMolecular Weight444.533logP1.581HBA7HBD3Matching Lipinski Rules4Veber rules componentPolar Surface Area (PSA)94.03Rotatable Bond (RotB)7Matching Veber Rules2 Quantitative Results1 of 13Comment (Pharmacological Data)Bioactivities presentReferenceHYDROXYMETHYL PYRROLIDINES AS BETA 3 ADRENERGIC RECEPTOR AGONISTS2 of 13Comment (Pharmacological Data)Bioactivities presentReferenceAN AGENT FOR TREATING NOCTURNAL POLLAKIURIA3 of 13Comment (Pharmacological Data)Bioactivities presentReferencePollakiuria night therapeutic agent4 of 13Comment (Pharmacological Data)Bioactivities presentReferenceProcess for preparing beta 3 agonists and intermediates5 of 13 Comment (Pharmacological Data)Bioactivities presentReferenceAgent for treating nocturnal pollakiuria6 of 13Comment (Pharmacological Data)physiological behaviour discussedReferenceSelectivity and Maximum Response of Vibegron and Mirabegron for β3-Adrenergic Receptors7 of 13Comment (Pharmacological Data)physiological behaviour discussedReferenceMETHODS OF TREATING HEART FAILURE WITH VIBEGRON Toxicity/Safety PharmacologyQuantitative Results Use PatternVibegron CAS#: 1190389-15-1 is an intermediate in pesticides and dyes; pesticide raw materials; analytical reagents. Read the full article

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mcmiimms · 5 years

Text

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County

The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019.

About the presentation:

Data from MLS (exported 1/14/2019 9:26 AM) and public records.

Trended with Microsoft Excel.

Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.

The information was prepared for the use of Steelbridge Realty and shared at the meeting.

youtube

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?

December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that.

Let’s talk about the December 2018.

In my opinion, the stock market correcting was a few things:

Wall Street traders are/were reallocating for a cyclical bear market.

They did this because of Fed Bank rate hikes.

When the prime lending rate breaks 5.5%, we generally have a recession in 9 to 18 months.

Our leverage structure as a result of the aftermath of 2008 is different than in previous cycles.

High-Frequency trading went wild as a result.

The Plunge Protection Team Gone got involved.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018

2017

2018

% Difference

Sales Volume

$5,584,071,334 $6,164,000,697 10.39% Sales Counts 19,453 20,649

6.15%

Average Price

$287,055 $298,513

3.99%

Median Price $219,998 $227,900

3.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics

December 2017 versus December 2018

2017 2018

% Difference

Volume

$449,669,822 $415,682,106 -7.56% Counts 1,650 1,336

-19.03%

Average

$272,527 $311,139 14.17% Median $218,000 $230,000

5.50%

The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year Built

This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.

Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count Patterns

Almost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by price

The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the City

This is the entire year versus the entire year.

By City % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Sales Volume

Counts

Average Price

St. James City

19.76% 19.35%

0.34%

Sanibel

23.66% 15.09% 7.44% Punta Gorda 18.51% 14.29%

3.70%

North Fort Myers

10.61% 9.74% 0.79% Miromar Lakes 20.27% 22.54%

-1.85%

Lehigh Acres

9.81% 0.47% 9.29% Fort Myers Beach 3.98% 7.53%

-3.30%

Fort Myers

11.33% 7.05% 3.99% Estero 14.89% 12.25%

2.35%

Captiva

8.01% -14.10% 25.75%

Cape Coral

7.28% 3.71%

3.44%

Bonita Springs

4.40% 5.52% -1.06% Bokeelia 1.84% -0.89%

2.76%

Alva

37.11% 28.03%

7.09%

Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.

December vs December % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Volume Counts

Average Price

St. James City

-0.51% 0.00% -0.51%

Sanibel

-10.31% -20.83%

13.29%

Punta Gorda -4.08% 11.11%

-13.68%

North Fort Myers

-17.00% -28.87% 16.68%

Miromar Lakes

-18.96% 40.00% -42.11% Lehigh Acres -15.79% -18.54%

3.37%

Fort Myers Beach 21.64% 23.53%

-1.53%

Fort Myers

-16.59% -19.54% 3.67% Estero 15.48% -11.54%

30.54%

Captiva

-30.60% -50.00% 38.79%

Cape Coral

-25.50% -28.85% 4.70%

Bonita Springs

49.96% 5.98%

41.49%

Bokeelia

45.72% 10.00% 32.47% Alva 70.63% 20.00%

42.19%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015.

The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property type

Sales Counts by Property Type

2017

2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

12,519 13,295

6.20%

Villa Attached 811 884 9.00% Low Rise (1-3) 3,466 3,643

5.11%

Mid Rise (4-7)

709 778 9.73% Townhouse 742 738

-0.54%

High Rise (8+)

522 522 0.00% Manufactured 587 702

19.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type

Average Price 2017 Average Price 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

$319,728 $335,470 4.92%

Villa Attached

$207,076 $222,212 7.31%

Low Rise (1-3)

$206,005 $209,948 1.91% Mid Rise (4-7) $266,539 $263,556

-1.12%

Townhouse

$187,575 $195,226 4.08% High Rise (8+) $512,338 $526,010

2.67%

Manufactured

$106,816 $110,881

3.81%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Number of cash sales

7,988 8,306

3.98%

Cash % 41.06% 40.22%

-2.04%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Bank Owned

630 454 -27.94%

Bank Owned %

3.24% 2.20%

-32.11%

Short Sale

100 79 -21.00% Short Sale % 0.51% 0.38%

-25.58%

Total Distressed 3.75% 2.58%

-31.22%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics

2017 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Gulf Access Counts

2764 2797 1.19%

Gulf Access % of sales counts

14.21% 13.55%

-4.67%

Waterfront Sales Counts

6620 7028 6.16% Waterfront % of sales counts 34.03% 34.04%

0.01%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overview

As of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Lehigh Acres 746 2143 179

Cape Coral

2613 5846 487 5 Fort Myers 3144 6651 554

Alva

80 164 14 6 North Fort Myers 531 1073 89

Estero

807 1425 119 7 Bokeelia 67 108 9

Matlacha

21 32 3 8 St. James City 125 179 15

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Bonita Springs

1199 1710 143 8 Punta Gorda 51 72 6

Fort Myers Beach

363 465 39 9

Miromar Lakes

74 80 7

Sanibel 343 347 29

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code

Postal Code

Active listings annual sales counts monthly absorption Months of inventory

33972

104 350 29 4

33971

151 504 42

33976

114 335 28 4 33907 159 447 37

33905

224 615 51 4 33991 302 828 69

33974

121 330 28 4 33909 322 878 73

33973

22 58 5 5

33990

266 693 58

33967

219 526 44 5 33936 236 563 47

33919 462 1102 92

33917

286 631 53 5 33966 167 366 31

33914

726 1517 126 6 33928 512 1052 88

33913

478 970 81 6 33901 194 388 32

33904

558 1103 92 6

33912

355 661 55 6

33993

468 861 72

33903

248 447 37 7 33916 220 389 32

34135

832 1389 116 7 34135 832 1389 116

33908

816 1355 113 7 33922 67 109 9

33956

126 179 15 8 33955 51 72 6

33931

366 468 39 9 34134 569 581 48

33957

341 346 29 12

34119

24 24 2 12

34110

29 24 2

In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market update

A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.

Most agents can not see past their own financial status.

There are a lot of agents right now. These are only Residential sales in the MLS.

–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018.

–4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018.

Trends to Watch

2018 was pretty awesome across the mean.

3 months had more than 2,000 sales!

That may be hard to beat.

Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?

There are 153 homes with a year built 2017 and newer, that are active as of 1/16/2019.

843 have sold in the last 365 days.

That is 2.17 months inventory.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)

This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion

2018 was a great year from a statistical perspective.

It may be tough, just by the sheer numbers, to beat that year.

In 2016, all of the economic talking heads were calling for a recession 2 years out. In 2018, they were saying the same thing. At some point, it has to happen.

We have 2 different economic trends happening in real estate. The Baby Boomer generation retirement and the Millenial/Gen Z coming of age. Each will have different and specific impacts on the market.

If you have Real Estate related questions call 239 694 3300 or use the form below.

_podioWebForm.render("1020721")

Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County

The post 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County appeared first on Steelbridge Realty LLC.

from Steelbridge Realty LLC https://northfortmyersonline.com/2019/01/28/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county/ from Steelbridge Realty LLC https://rxnctus.tumblr.com/post/182384806086

0 notes

bitterbisous · 5 years

Text

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County

The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019.

About the presentation:

Data from MLS (exported 1/14/2019 9:26 AM) and public records.

Trended with Microsoft Excel.

Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.

The information was prepared for the use of Steelbridge Realty and shared at the meeting.

youtube

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?

December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that.

Let’s talk about the December 2018.

In my opinion, the stock market correcting was a few things:

Wall Street traders are/were reallocating for a cyclical bear market.

They did this because of Fed Bank rate hikes.

When the prime lending rate breaks 5.5%, we generally have a recession in 9 to 18 months.

Our leverage structure as a result of the aftermath of 2008 is different than in previous cycles.

High-Frequency trading went wild as a result.

The Plunge Protection Team Gone got involved.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018

2017

2018

% Difference

Sales Volume

$5,584,071,334 $6,164,000,697 10.39% Sales Counts 19,453 20,649

6.15%

Average Price

$287,055 $298,513

3.99%

Median Price $219,998 $227,900

3.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics

December 2017 versus December 2018

2017 2018

% Difference

Volume

$449,669,822 $415,682,106 -7.56% Counts 1,650 1,336

-19.03%

Average

$272,527 $311,139 14.17% Median $218,000 $230,000

5.50%

The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year Built

This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.

Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count Patterns

Almost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by price

The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the City

This is the entire year versus the entire year.

By City % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Sales Volume

Counts

Average Price

St. James City

19.76% 19.35%

0.34%

Sanibel

23.66% 15.09% 7.44% Punta Gorda 18.51% 14.29%

3.70%

North Fort Myers

10.61% 9.74% 0.79% Miromar Lakes 20.27% 22.54%

-1.85%

Lehigh Acres

9.81% 0.47% 9.29% Fort Myers Beach 3.98% 7.53%

-3.30%

Fort Myers

11.33% 7.05% 3.99% Estero 14.89% 12.25%

2.35%

Captiva

8.01% -14.10% 25.75%

Cape Coral

7.28% 3.71%

3.44%

Bonita Springs

4.40% 5.52% -1.06% Bokeelia 1.84% -0.89%

2.76%

Alva

37.11% 28.03%

7.09%

Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.

December vs December % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Volume Counts

Average Price

St. James City

-0.51% 0.00% -0.51%

Sanibel

-10.31% -20.83%

13.29%

Punta Gorda -4.08% 11.11%

-13.68%

North Fort Myers

-17.00% -28.87% 16.68%

Miromar Lakes

-18.96% 40.00% -42.11% Lehigh Acres -15.79% -18.54%

3.37%

Fort Myers Beach 21.64% 23.53%

-1.53%

Fort Myers

-16.59% -19.54% 3.67% Estero 15.48% -11.54%

30.54%

Captiva

-30.60% -50.00% 38.79%

Cape Coral

-25.50% -28.85% 4.70%

Bonita Springs

49.96% 5.98%

41.49%

Bokeelia

45.72% 10.00% 32.47% Alva 70.63% 20.00%

42.19%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015.

The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property type

Sales Counts by Property Type

2017

2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

12,519 13,295

6.20%

Villa Attached 811 884 9.00% Low Rise (1-3) 3,466 3,643

5.11%

Mid Rise (4-7)

709 778 9.73% Townhouse 742 738

-0.54%

High Rise (8+)

522 522 0.00% Manufactured 587 702

19.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type

Average Price 2017 Average Price 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

$319,728 $335,470 4.92%

Villa Attached

$207,076 $222,212 7.31%

Low Rise (1-3)

$206,005 $209,948 1.91% Mid Rise (4-7) $266,539 $263,556

-1.12%

Townhouse

$187,575 $195,226 4.08% High Rise (8+) $512,338 $526,010

2.67%

Manufactured

$106,816 $110,881

3.81%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Number of cash sales

7,988 8,306

3.98%

Cash % 41.06% 40.22%

-2.04%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Bank Owned

630 454 -27.94%

Bank Owned %

3.24% 2.20%

-32.11%

Short Sale

100 79 -21.00% Short Sale % 0.51% 0.38%

-25.58%

Total Distressed 3.75% 2.58%

-31.22%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics

2017 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Gulf Access Counts

2764 2797 1.19%

Gulf Access % of sales counts

14.21% 13.55%

-4.67%

Waterfront Sales Counts

6620 7028 6.16% Waterfront % of sales counts 34.03% 34.04%

0.01%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overview

As of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Lehigh Acres 746 2143 179

Cape Coral

2613 5846 487 5 Fort Myers 3144 6651 554

Alva

80 164 14 6 North Fort Myers 531 1073 89

Estero

807 1425 119 7 Bokeelia 67 108 9

Matlacha

21 32 3 8 St. James City 125 179 15

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Bonita Springs

1199 1710 143 8 Punta Gorda 51 72 6

Fort Myers Beach

363 465 39 9

Miromar Lakes

74 80 7

Sanibel 343 347 29

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code

Postal Code

Active listings annual sales counts monthly absorption Months of inventory

33972

104 350 29 4

33971

151 504 42

33976

114 335 28 4 33907 159 447 37

33905

224 615 51 4 33991 302 828 69

33974

121 330 28 4 33909 322 878 73

33973

22 58 5 5

33990

266 693 58

33967

219 526 44 5 33936 236 563 47

33919 462 1102 92

33917

286 631 53 5 33966 167 366 31

33914

726 1517 126 6 33928 512 1052 88

33913

478 970 81 6 33901 194 388 32

33904

558 1103 92 6

33912

355 661 55 6

33993

468 861 72

33903

248 447 37 7 33916 220 389 32

34135

832 1389 116 7 34135 832 1389 116

33908

816 1355 113 7 33922 67 109 9

33956

126 179 15 8 33955 51 72 6

33931

366 468 39 9 34134 569 581 48

33957

341 346 29 12

34119

24 24 2 12

34110

29 24 2

In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market update

A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.

Most agents can not see past their own financial status.

There are a lot of agents right now. These are only Residential sales in the MLS.

–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018.

–4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018.

Trends to Watch

2018 was pretty awesome across the mean.

3 months had more than 2,000 sales!

That may be hard to beat.

Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?

There are 153 homes with a year built 2017 and newer, that are active as of 1/16/2019.

843 have sold in the last 365 days.

That is 2.17 months inventory.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)

This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion

2018 was a great year from a statistical perspective.

It may be tough, just by the sheer numbers, to beat that year.

In 2016, all of the economic talking heads were calling for a recession 2 years out. In 2018, they were saying the same thing. At some point, it has to happen.

We have 2 different economic trends happening in real estate. The Baby Boomer generation retirement and the Millenial/Gen Z coming of age. Each will have different and specific impacts on the market.

If you have Real Estate related questions call 239 694 3300 or use the form below.

_podioWebForm.render("1020721")

Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County

The post 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County appeared first on Steelbridge Realty LLC.

from Steelbridge Realty LLC https://northfortmyersonline.com/2019/01/28/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county/ from Steelbridge Realty LLC https://rxnctus.tumblr.com/post/182384806086

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rxnctus · 5 years

Text

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County

The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019.

About the presentation:

Data from MLS (exported 1/14/2019 9:26 AM) and public records.

Trended with Microsoft Excel.

Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.

The information was prepared for the use of Steelbridge Realty and shared at the meeting.

youtube

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?

December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that.

Let’s talk about the December 2018.

In my opinion, the stock market correcting was a few things:

Wall Street traders are/were reallocating for a cyclical bear market.

They did this because of Fed Bank rate hikes.

When the prime lending rate breaks 5.5%, we generally have a recession in 9 to 18 months.

Our leverage structure as a result of the aftermath of 2008 is different than in previous cycles.

High-Frequency trading went wild as a result.

The Plunge Protection Team Gone got involved.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018

2017

2018

% Difference

Sales Volume

$5,584,071,334 $6,164,000,697 10.39% Sales Counts 19,453 20,649

6.15%

Average Price

$287,055 $298,513

3.99%

Median Price $219,998 $227,900

3.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics

December 2017 versus December 2018

2017 2018

% Difference

Volume

$449,669,822 $415,682,106 -7.56% Counts 1,650 1,336

-19.03%

Average

$272,527 $311,139 14.17% Median $218,000 $230,000

5.50%

The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year Built

This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.

Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count Patterns

Almost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by price

The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the City

This is the entire year versus the entire year.

By City % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Sales Volume

Counts

Average Price

St. James City

19.76% 19.35%

0.34%

Sanibel

23.66% 15.09% 7.44% Punta Gorda 18.51% 14.29%

3.70%

North Fort Myers

10.61% 9.74% 0.79% Miromar Lakes 20.27% 22.54%

-1.85%

Lehigh Acres

9.81% 0.47% 9.29% Fort Myers Beach 3.98% 7.53%

-3.30%

Fort Myers

11.33% 7.05% 3.99% Estero 14.89% 12.25%

2.35%

Captiva

8.01% -14.10% 25.75%

Cape Coral

7.28% 3.71%

3.44%

Bonita Springs

4.40% 5.52% -1.06% Bokeelia 1.84% -0.89%

2.76%

Alva

37.11% 28.03%

7.09%

Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.

December vs December % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Volume Counts

Average Price

St. James City

-0.51% 0.00% -0.51%

Sanibel

-10.31% -20.83%

13.29%

Punta Gorda -4.08% 11.11%

-13.68%

North Fort Myers

-17.00% -28.87% 16.68%

Miromar Lakes

-18.96% 40.00% -42.11% Lehigh Acres -15.79% -18.54%

3.37%

Fort Myers Beach 21.64% 23.53%

-1.53%

Fort Myers

-16.59% -19.54% 3.67% Estero 15.48% -11.54%

30.54%

Captiva

-30.60% -50.00% 38.79%

Cape Coral

-25.50% -28.85% 4.70%

Bonita Springs

49.96% 5.98%

41.49%

Bokeelia

45.72% 10.00% 32.47% Alva 70.63% 20.00%

42.19%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015.

The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property type

Sales Counts by Property Type

2017

2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

12,519 13,295

6.20%

Villa Attached 811 884 9.00% Low Rise (1-3) 3,466 3,643

5.11%

Mid Rise (4-7)

709 778 9.73% Townhouse 742 738

-0.54%

High Rise (8+)

522 522 0.00% Manufactured 587 702

19.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type

Average Price 2017 Average Price 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

$319,728 $335,470 4.92%

Villa Attached

$207,076 $222,212 7.31%

Low Rise (1-3)

$206,005 $209,948 1.91% Mid Rise (4-7) $266,539 $263,556

-1.12%

Townhouse

$187,575 $195,226 4.08% High Rise (8+) $512,338 $526,010

2.67%

Manufactured

$106,816 $110,881

3.81%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Number of cash sales

7,988 8,306

3.98%

Cash % 41.06% 40.22%

-2.04%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Bank Owned

630 454 -27.94%

Bank Owned %

3.24% 2.20%

-32.11%

Short Sale

100 79 -21.00% Short Sale % 0.51% 0.38%

-25.58%

Total Distressed 3.75% 2.58%

-31.22%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics

2017 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Gulf Access Counts

2764 2797 1.19%

Gulf Access % of sales counts

14.21% 13.55%

-4.67%

Waterfront Sales Counts

6620 7028 6.16% Waterfront % of sales counts 34.03% 34.04%

0.01%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overview

As of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Lehigh Acres 746 2143 179

Cape Coral

2613 5846 487 5 Fort Myers 3144 6651 554

Alva

80 164 14 6 North Fort Myers 531 1073 89

Estero

807 1425 119 7 Bokeelia 67 108 9

Matlacha

21 32 3 8 St. James City 125 179 15

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Bonita Springs

1199 1710 143 8 Punta Gorda 51 72 6

Fort Myers Beach

363 465 39 9

Miromar Lakes

74 80 7

Sanibel 343 347 29

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code

Postal Code

Active listings annual sales counts monthly absorption Months of inventory

33972

104 350 29 4

33971

151 504 42

33976

114 335 28 4 33907 159 447 37

33905

224 615 51 4 33991 302 828 69

33974

121 330 28 4 33909 322 878 73

33973

22 58 5 5

33990

266 693 58

33967

219 526 44 5 33936 236 563 47

33919 462 1102 92

33917

286 631 53 5 33966 167 366 31

33914

726 1517 126 6 33928 512 1052 88

33913

478 970 81 6 33901 194 388 32

33904

558 1103 92 6

33912

355 661 55 6

33993

468 861 72

33903

248 447 37 7 33916 220 389 32

34135

832 1389 116 7 34135 832 1389 116

33908

816 1355 113 7 33922 67 109 9

33956

126 179 15 8 33955 51 72 6

33931

366 468 39 9 34134 569 581 48

33957

341 346 29 12

34119

24 24 2 12

34110

29 24 2

In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market update

A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.

Most agents can not see past their own financial status.

There are a lot of agents right now. These are only Residential sales in the MLS.

–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018.

–4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018.

Trends to Watch

2018 was pretty awesome across the mean.

3 months had more than 2,000 sales!

That may be hard to beat.

Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?

There are 153 homes with a year built 2017 and newer, that are active as of 1/16/2019.

843 have sold in the last 365 days.

That is 2.17 months inventory.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)

This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion

2018 was a great year from a statistical perspective.

It may be tough, just by the sheer numbers, to beat that year.

In 2016, all of the economic talking heads were calling for a recession 2 years out. In 2018, they were saying the same thing. At some point, it has to happen.

We have 2 different economic trends happening in real estate. The Baby Boomer generation retirement and the Millenial/Gen Z coming of age. Each will have different and specific impacts on the market.

If you have Real Estate related questions call 239 694 3300 or use the form below.

_podioWebForm.render("1020721")

Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County

The post 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County appeared first on Steelbridge Realty LLC.

from Steelbridge Realty LLC https://northfortmyersonline.com/2019/01/28/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county/

0 notes

reflexoesbiblicas · 3 years

Text

APOCALIPSE - 1

INTERPRETAÇÃO DE VISÃO IDEALISTA

[*] - Nos capítulos (I a III): Introdução, saudação e a visão de Jesus ressurreto. As sete cartas exortam e encorajam a Igreja.

[**] - Nos capítulos (lV a XX): Jesus revela ao apostolo João, fatos decorrentes ao período do Reino de Deus (Mt 12.28; Cl 1.12-14), período entre o batismo de Jesus e seu retorno no Dia do Juízo Final.

[***] - Conseguinte, os capítulos (XXI a XXII): Descreve o Reino dos Céus (Mt 7.21-23; 1Co 15.22-24), período após o Dia do Juízo Final.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Ref. período da história: [*] Era de Cristo (passado). [**] Era da Igreja (intermediário). [***] Fim dos tempos (futuro).

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Parte: 2

Capítulos: (l a XI)

{ 1.1-20 }

[*] - Jesus revela ao apostolo João o que aconteceria num futuro próximo (Ap 22.6, 10). Veja: (Dn 8.26), “futuro distante = aproximadamente 400 anos”.

(1.4) Sete igrejas = sete espíritos = sete lâmpadas = Igreja universal (todos os selados).

(1.5-6) Os cristãos são sacerdotes no Reino de Deus (1Pe 2.5,9), eles reinam com Cristo (Rm 5.17; Ef 2.6; 2Tm 2.11-12). Veja: (Ap 20.6).

(1.9) João é companheiro na tribulação e no “Reino de Deus”: (Mt 12.28; Lc 17.20-21; Jo 3.5; Rm 14.17-18; Cl 1.13; 4.11; Ap 20.6). O Reino de Deus é o período de tempo o qual Jesus governa a Igreja (Jo 18.33-37; 1Tm 6.14-16), antes do arrebatamento.

(1.12-18) João retrata Jesus: ressurreto, vitorioso e armado com espada:

a) Suas vestes = retrata o sumo sacerdócio;

b) Cinturão de ouro = revela a majestade;

c) Cabelo branco = ancião (Dn 7.9-10; Ap 20.12), sabedoria;

d) Olhos de fogo = vê tudo; conhecimento absoluto (Is 66.16);

e) Pés de bronze = firmeza, julgamento (Mq 4.13);

f) Voz como som de muitas águas = poderoso (Ap 14.2);

g) Sete estrelas nas mãos = possui o controle e o governo da Igreja;

h) Espada = o evangelho (Hb 4.12), justiça (Mt 10.34);

i) Face como o sol = luz do mundo ou (Ml 4.1-2);

j) Jesus possui as chaves do Inferno = Juiz dos juízes (Ap 20.11,14).

{ 2.1 - 3.22 }

[**] - O Anjo da Igreja é aquele que representa a Igreja (Dn 10.11-13, 20-21; Hb 1.14). Porém, existe três correntes de entendimento, são vistos de três formas:

a) Homens mensageiros que levavam as cartas as igrejas;

b) Os pastores das igrejas;

c) Seres celestiais representantes da igreja.

[**] - A s cartas levam encorajamento e exortação à Igreja de Cristo, por todo o mundo e em qualquer época da história. Porém elas também são vistas de três formas:

a) São direcionadas as igrejas locais em condições reais da época em que foi escrita;

b) Retratam a cristandade no mundo em qualquer época da história;

c) Retrata uma visão consecutiva da história da cristandade: Cada igreja representa um período diferente (época do tempo).

{ 4.1-4 }

[***] - O apostolo João foi convidado a subir aos céus e entrar pela porta; logo foi arrebatado pelo Espírito e teve uma visão da morada de Deus e de seu Trono; para alguns estudiosos da Bíblia a entrada de João no céu tipifica o arrebatamento da Igreja (Ts 4.16,17; 2Co 5.10).

Jesus é apresentado como Rei e Juiz, pronto para julgar, “trono”; Ele é semelhante a jaspe e a sardônio, no peitoral do sumo sacerdote o jaspe representa Ruben, o primogênito de Jacó, e o sardônio representa Benjamim, o último filho do patriarca, isto retrata o povo de Deus em sua totalidade (Ex 28.21), seu governo está em conformidade com a aliança estabelecida com a humanidade (Gn 9.17).

Os vinte e quatros anciões provavelmente são vinte e quatro homens de Deus que representam toda a nação de salvos, estes são os doze que representam as tribos de Israel no velho testamento e os doze apóstolos do novo testamento (Mt 19.28 e Ap 21.12-14); estavam vestidos de branco, porque foram purificados e receberam suas coroas para reinar com Cristo.

{ 4.5-11 }

[***] - Relâmpagos, vozes e trovões simbolizam o julgamento e sempre marcam acontecimentos importantes (Ex 19.16), as sete lâmpadas simbolizam o Espírito Santo em sua plenitude e majestade. Diante do trono um mar de vidro que provavelmente represente o Santuário de Deus (11.19), ou a estabilidade no céu, a calmaria do mar, devido a planície do vidro.

O número quatro representa os quatro pontos da bússola, ou seja, totalidade territorial; os seres viventes representam toda a criação de Deus, estes seres são uma combinação dos serafins (Is 6.2-3) com os querubins (Ez 10.12,14,21). Toda a criação encontra-se no centro e ao redor do trono aguardando o julgamento.

{ 5.1-5 }

[**] - O livro “pergaminho” é o documento que dá a Jesus o direito de reivindicar a criação em virtude de seu sacrifício (ver verso 9) e revela visões de julgamento, selado (inviolado) e só pode ser aberto (o testamento) pelo herdeiro de todas as coisas (Hb 1.2); foi escrito de ambos os lados, isto significa que não se pode acrescentar nada mais a este pergaminho, ou seja, está completo, pois o novo testamento revela todos os mistérios encontrados no velho testamento. (Lv 25.23-26 e Jr 32.8-10).

Toda criação encontra-se sob a escravidão do pecado, da morte e de Satanás, porem agora, Jesus nosso irmão e Salvador nos libertará.

{ 5.6-8 }

[**] - Jesus possui sete chifres, que representa a sua onipotência e possui sete olhos que representa sua onisciência, que são os sete Espíritos de Deus, que representa a onipresença.

{ 5.9-10 }

[**] - Os cristãos foram comprados a preço do sangue de Jesus Cristo (1Co 6.20) eles reinam (Rm 5.17) e são sacerdotes do Rei (1Pe 2.9) no Reino Milenar de Cristo (Ap 20.6).

{ 5.11-14 }

[**] - Toda criação se juntou para honrar o Senhor Jesus, após o louvor dos anjos (Jo 5.22, 23); Cristo está para abrir os selos do livro e derramar julgamento sobre o mundo.

{ 6.1-8 }

[**] - Os “Selos” retratam o julgamento divino e não seguem uma sucessão cronológica, cada um deles não pertence a um tempo específico, por isto a visão trata da história inteira da Igreja e do mundo ao longo do Reino de Deus. A igreja está no mundo e sofre com as dificuldades das guerras (Jo 16.33; 17.15).

João utiliza símbolos que foram utilizados por Zacarias (Zc 1.8-10; 6.1-5). Os quatro selos irão retratar um cenário na terra.

[**] - 1º Selo: A abertura do primeiro selo introduz o primeiro dos quatro cavaleiros, um anjo, provavelmente o Anjo do Senhor, que representa Jesus Cristo, assim como Ele é visto em (19.11-16). O Rei dos reis, determinado a vencer (Mt 10.34).

Representa também, o início do Reino de Cristo e a expansão do evangelho.

[**] - 2º Selo: O cavalo vermelho representa as guerras sangrentas, provavelmente por causa do primeiro cavaleiro.

Já, Hendrisksen diz que se refere a perseguição religiosa contra os filhos de Deus (a inquisição católica e a protestante) e as guerras entre nações.

[**] - 3º Selo: O cavalo preto representa privações econômicas, pobreza, opressão, exploração. A fome acompanha a guerra.

[**] - 4º Selo: O cavalo amarelo representa a morte: A morte utiliza-se da espada (guerra), da fome (subproduto da guerra), das doenças e das pragas.

Estes três cavaleiros juntos, destacam as angústias que afligem os seres humanos que moram em um mundo dominado pelo poder do mal (7.2).

{ 6.9-17 }

[***] - 5º Selo: Retrata um cenário celestial: Ilustra o “clamor das almas”, daqueles que foram perseguidos, martirizados e mortos; o clamor da Igreja por justiça (Lc 18.7-8).

[***] - 6º Selo: O sexto selo introduz o “Dia do Senhor (Am 5.18-20; 1Ts 5.1-4), o Dia do Juízo”, onde descreve uma grande catástrofe e o termino desta era (1Pe 3.6-7, 10); retratado pelo símbolo de um universo em destruição e a raça humana amedrontada.

{ 7.1-8 }

Obs.: Em apocalipse aprendemos que o cordeiro de Deus é vitorioso e que Deus julgará cada adversário que perseguir a Igreja. No capitulo sete, João fornece uma visão de conforto e esperança, antes de revelar a abertura do sétimo selo.

“Um intervalo” - Um prenúncio dos capítulos XIV e XV

[**] - Os quatro anjos que se encontrava nos quatro cantos da terra, impediu que as catástrofes citadas nos selos anteriores iniciassem, antes que os povos de Deus fossem selados (Ef 1.13,14; Dt 11.18; Ex 13.9).

[***] - Retrata um cenário na terra: Os 144.000 selados, representam a Igreja universal, que estará segura no meio do julgamento. João não distingue os judeus salvos com os salvos do novo testamento, como em (21.12) as doze tribos claramente incluem todos os cristãos (Gl 6.16; Ap 11.1).

(144.000) = Símbolo: o quadrado de doze, multiplicado por mil.

{ 7.9-17 }

[***] - Retrata um cenário celestial: A grande multidão representa os cristãos que foram mortos por causa da Palavra de Deus, vistos no quinto selo (6.9,11). A morte deles não foi uma tragédia, pois estavam festejando ao redor do trono de Deus.

[**] - A “Grande Tribulação” são as perseguições, o sofrimento, o martírio, que surge durante a história da Igreja “Reino de Deus”. A tribulação vista em (9.3-6), é destinada exclusivamente aos descrentes, no Dia do Senhor.

{ 8.1-5 }

[**] - 7º Selo: A abertura do sétimo selo retrata as visões das sete trombetas:

[***] - O “Silencio Solene”, (30min), precede e anuncia a vinda de Deus (O Dia do Senhor). O som das trombetas simboliza a intervenção de Deus (Is 27.12,13) e a importância dos acontecimentos que estão por vir. As orações de todos os santos refletem que o destino do povo escolhido é a preocupação essencial em tudo aquilo que está para acontecer; mostra que Deus ouviu as orações daqueles que foram perseguidos e responde com o castigo aos ímpios.

{ 8.6-13 }

[**] - 1ª a 4ª trombeta: retratam uma series de acontecimentos ou calamidades (fenômenos da natureza) que acontecerão ao longo do Reino de Deus. Os julgamentos das trombetas não são completos, pois trata-se de um terço e servem como exortação ao ímpio para se arrependerem (9.20).

Os acontecimentos das quatro trombetas, provavelmente correm em paralelo com os quatro primeiros selos.

Analogia: O granizo e o fogo misturados com sangue que destroem um terço da terra podem ser símbolos de todos os desastres que são usados por Deus para advertir o ímpio.

{ 9.1-12 }

[***] - As três ultimas trombetas retratam um período de tribulação, exercendo juízo somente aos descrentes. A visão destas três trombetas, correm em paralelo à visão do sexto selo. Elas apresentam o “Dia do Senhor” (Am 5.18-19 e 1Tm 5.1-4) “Dia do Juízo Final” onde, Deus livra seu povo na tribulação e não da tribulação.

[***] - 5ª trombeta: ou o primeiro “AI”, descreve a estrela que caiu do céu (12.3-4), o próprio Satanás (Lc 10.18), que recebeu a chave do poço do abismo, ou seja, do lugar de habitação dos demônios. Descreve uma visão demoníaca de terror, destruição e muita dor. Revela o decreto permissivo de Deus, o qual permite ao príncipe das trevas encher o mundo de demônios (Mc 5.3-5,8), simbolizado pelo poder destrutivo dos gafanhotos (Jr 51.27) que se apoderam dos não selados (2Pe 2.4).

[***] - A descrição dos gafanhotos tem por objetivo dar a impressão de conquista e vitória: parecem cavalos, que representa um exército conquistador; coroas de ouro, que simboliza poder para governar os não selados; rosto de homem, simboliza que são seres inteligentes; cabelos como de mulher, retrata que são atraentes e sedutores; dentes como o de leão, retrata que são ferozes e cruéis; couraças de ferro, simboliza que são inatingíveis. Possuem um rei de nome Abadom ou Apolion, que significa “destruidor”, o próprio Satanás.

{ 9.13-16 }

[***] - 6ª trombeta: descreve a guerra; João ouviu vozes das quatro pontas do altar (Ex 27.2). Deus permitiu que os quatro anjos caídos (provavelmente os encarregados dos cavaleiros demoníacos), arrastassem um terço da humanidade para a guerra. Estes anjos estavam amarrados (Jd 6), e destinados para realizar destruição, (Jl 2.1-11; Sf 1.2-3, 14-18).

{ 9.17-19 }

[***] - A cabeça dos cavalos parece com a cabeça de leão, representa que parecem ter toda a autoridade para reinar; da boca lançam fogo, fumaça e enxofre, retratando que seu poder vem pela boca, provavelmente pela eloquência persuasiva da fala.

{ 9.20-21 }

Muitos, mesmo após reconhecer a glória de Deus, preferem a idolatria (Rm 1.18-23).

{ 10.1-7 }

“ Pausa na sequência das trombetas, para uma breve exortação. ”

[**] - O anjo que desce dos céus é o anjo do Senhor, aquele que representa o Senhor Jesus Cristo (1.12-16). Seus pés no mar e na terra, nos retrata o seu domínio mundial e que a mensagem é para toda humanidade. Os sete trovões, “voz de Deus”, estão relacionados com a revelação dos castigos divinos, ele revela o juízo final que se encontra na sétima trombeta, o qual foi selado neste capitulo, mas logo será revelada quando o sétimo anjo tocar a sua trombeta.

{ 10.8-10 }

[**] - O livro é a palavra de Deus revelada nos evangelhos, ele deve ser comido, isto é assimilado para ser vivido e testemunhado, ele é doce como o mel, pois anuncia o triunfo da Igreja (Ez 2.7-3.3), e também é amargo, porque a sua proclamação anuncia sofrimentos e perseguições por aqueles que rejeitam a palavra de Deus (Jr 15.10 e Is 5.20); o apostolo deve provar igualmente da graça e do sofrimento do evangelho.

{ 10.11 }

[**] - A ordem para profetizar é a mesma encontrada em (Mt 28.19-20), a qual está sendo cumprida no Reino de Deus, conforme consta no capítulo seguinte.

{ 11.1-2 }

[**] - A missão do povo de Deus é continuar profetizando, esta visão descreve as experiências amargas de quem segue o evangelho e o proclama.

O santuário “templo” é medido: símbolo da Igreja, e também alusão a (Ez 40.3 a 48.35). Os adoradores são contados: símbolo de proteção, o mesmo que selados, o que significa que a verdadeira Igreja está protegida (1Co 6.19). O pátio “cidade santa” que será pisoteada: retrata o restante do mundo, os não selados, (Lc 21.24b).

Analogia: O tempo de 42 meses = 1.260 dias = 3,5 anos (13.5 e Dn 7.25), que é igual ao período do Reino de Deus, o milênio descrito no capítulo XX; e ou símbolo da duração de qualquer perseguição (Lc 4.25).

Reflexão: (Dn 11.31; Mt 24.15-22) o sacrilégio, possivelmente trata-se da destruição da cidade de Jerusalém. A aliança: (Dn 9.25-27; 7.25), e o Reino de Deus: (Dn 12.7-13; 2Pe 3.8; Ap 12.6,14; 13.5).

{ 11.3-6 }

[**] - As duas testemunhas representam o povo de Deus, alusão a Moises e Elias; representados pelas duas oliveiras (Rm 11.13,17-21, 24; Sl 52.8; 128.3). Roupa de pano de saco simboliza o arrependimento e a humildade. Ninguém pode causar danos às testemunhas (1Jo 5.18), elas possuem poder (Mc 16.17-18; Lc 10.19-20; At 1.8); alusão a (2Rs 1.10-12).

Reflexão: Para qualquer julgamento, segundo a Lei da primeira aliança, Deus exigia no mínimo duas testemunhas (Dt 17.6; 19.15).

{ 11.7-12 }

[**] - Os apóstolos e os cristãos foram perseguidos e mortos na grande tribulação vista em (Mt 24.15-22), provavelmente entre os anos 67 a 70 d.C. A Besta que vem do abismo (Ex. Imperador Nero, Tito e Adriano), matará as testemunhas, seus corpos serão expostos na praça de Roma e entrarão em decomposição.

Reflexão: O corpo de Jesus não entrou em decomposição (At 13.34-35), mas os corpos das testemunhas (dos cristãos) entrarão em decomposição durante a era da Igreja. Após os três dias e meio, Jesus voltará, as testemunhas ressuscitarão para a glória e serão arrebatadas para os céus (1Ts 4.16-17; Mt 24.29-31, 37-42).

Analogia: A besta do abismo (11.7) = tipo do anticristo = (13.1, 18; 17.8) = poder político.

{ 11.13-14 }

[***] - Após o arrebatamento, um forte terremoto causa a destruição de todos os gentios (sete mil), no decorrer da sexta trombeta (Mt 24.3-14; 2Pe 3.7, 10-12).

{ 11.15-18 }

[***] - 7ª trombeta: O reino dos Céus é anunciado. Jesus entrega o seu reino a seu Pai. Dar-se início ao reino celestial (1Co 15.22-26; Ap 20. 13,14). Houve o julgamento, a condenação de total os não selados e a recompensa dos cristãos (Dn 12.1-3).

{ 11.19 }

[***] - O santuário será aberto, a arca da aliança será vista: símbolo da presença de Deus no meio de seu povo, por toda a eternidade (21.1-4).

Reflexão: A sétima trombeta encerra a revelação do mistério de Deus visto em (10.7). O restante do livro é uma apresentação ampliada dos detalhes desta vitória, onde os mesmos eventos são apresentados de um ponto de vista diferente.

(CONTINUA)

0 notes

ourlittletree · 5 years

Text

2019 market outlook for Lee County

The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019.

About the presentation:

Data from MLS (exported 1/14/2019 9:26 AM) and public records.

Trended with Microsoft Excel.

Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.

The information was prepared for the use of Steelbridge Realty and shared at the meeting.

youtube

Click here for the slides presented at the meeting 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?

December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that.

Let’s talk about the December 2018.

In my opinion, the stock market correcting was a few things:

Wall Street traders are/were reallocating for a cyclical bear market.

They did this because of Fed Bank rate hikes.

When the prime lending rate breaks 5.5%, we generally have a recession in 9 to 18 months.

Our leverage structure as a result of the aftermath of 2008 is different than in previous cycles.

High-Frequency trading went wild as a result.

The Plunge Protection Team Gone got involved.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018

2017

2018

% Difference

Sales Volume

$5,584,071,334 $6,164,000,697 10.39% Sales Counts 19,453 20,649

6.15%

Average Price

$287,055 $298,513

3.99%

Median Price $219,998 $227,900

3.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics

December 2017 versus December 2018

2017 2018

% Difference

Volume

$449,669,822 $415,682,106 -7.56% Counts 1,650 1,336

-19.03%

Average

$272,527 $311,139 14.17% Median $218,000 $230,000

5.50%

The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year Built

This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.

Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count Patterns

Almost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by price

The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the City

This is the entire year versus the entire year.

By City % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Sales Volume

Counts

Average Price

St. James City

19.76% 19.35%

0.34%

Sanibel

23.66% 15.09% 7.44% Punta Gorda 18.51% 14.29%

3.70%

North Fort Myers

10.61% 9.74% 0.79% Miromar Lakes 20.27% 22.54%

-1.85%

Lehigh Acres

9.81% 0.47% 9.29% Fort Myers Beach 3.98% 7.53%

-3.30%

Fort Myers

11.33% 7.05% 3.99% Estero 14.89% 12.25%

2.35%

Captiva

8.01% -14.10% 25.75%

Cape Coral

7.28% 3.71%

3.44%

Bonita Springs

4.40% 5.52% -1.06% Bokeelia 1.84% -0.89%

2.76%

Alva

37.11% 28.03%

7.09%

Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.

December vs December % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Volume Counts

Average Price

St. James City

-0.51% 0.00% -0.51%

Sanibel

-10.31% -20.83%

13.29%

Punta Gorda -4.08% 11.11%

-13.68%

North Fort Myers

-17.00% -28.87% 16.68%

Miromar Lakes

-18.96% 40.00% -42.11% Lehigh Acres -15.79% -18.54%

3.37%

Fort Myers Beach 21.64% 23.53%

-1.53%

Fort Myers

-16.59% -19.54% 3.67% Estero 15.48% -11.54%

30.54%

Captiva

-30.60% -50.00% 38.79%

Cape Coral

-25.50% -28.85% 4.70%

Bonita Springs

49.96% 5.98%

41.49%

Bokeelia

45.72% 10.00% 32.47% Alva 70.63% 20.00%

42.19%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015.

The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property type

Sales Counts by Property Type

2017

2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

12,519 13,295

6.20%

Villa Attached 811 884 9.00% Low Rise (1-3) 3,466 3,643

5.11%

Mid Rise (4-7)

709 778 9.73% Townhouse 742 738

-0.54%

High Rise (8+)

522 522 0.00% Manufactured 587 702

19.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type

Average Price 2017 Average Price 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

$319,728 $335,470 4.92%

Villa Attached

$207,076 $222,212 7.31%

Low Rise (1-3)

$206,005 $209,948 1.91% Mid Rise (4-7) $266,539 $263,556

-1.12%

Townhouse

$187,575 $195,226 4.08% High Rise (8+) $512,338 $526,010

2.67%

Manufactured

$106,816 $110,881

3.81%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Number of cash sales

7,988 8,306

3.98%

Cash % 41.06% 40.22%

-2.04%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Bank Owned

630 454 -27.94%

Bank Owned %

3.24% 2.20%

-32.11%

Short Sale

100 79 -21.00% Short Sale % 0.51% 0.38%

-25.58%

Total Distressed 3.75% 2.58%

-31.22%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics

2017 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Gulf Access Counts

2764 2797 1.19%

Gulf Access % of sales counts

14.21% 13.55%

-4.67%

Waterfront Sales Counts

6620 7028 6.16% Waterfront % of sales counts 34.03% 34.04%

0.01%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overview

As of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Lehigh Acres 746 2143 179

Cape Coral

2613 5846 487 5 Fort Myers 3144 6651 554

Alva

80 164 14 6 North Fort Myers 531 1073 89

Estero

807 1425 119 7 Bokeelia 67 108 9

Matlacha

21 32 3 8 St. James City 125 179 15

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Bonita Springs

1199 1710 143 8 Punta Gorda 51 72 6

Fort Myers Beach

363 465 39 9

Miromar Lakes

74 80 7

Sanibel 343 347 29

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code

Postal Code

Active listings annual sales counts monthly absorption Months of inventory

33972

104 350 29 4

33971

151 504 42

33976

114 335 28 4 33907 159 447 37

33905

224 615 51 4 33991 302 828 69

33974

121 330 28 4 33909 322 878 73

33973

22 58 5 5

33990

266 693 58

33967

219 526 44 5 33936 236 563 47

33919 462 1102 92

33917

286 631 53 5 33966 167 366 31

33914

726 1517 126 6 33928 512 1052 88

33913

478 970 81 6 33901 194 388 32

33904

558 1103 92 6

33912

355 661 55 6

33993

468 861 72

33903

248 447 37 7 33916 220 389 32

34135

832 1389 116 7 34135 832 1389 116

33908

816 1355 113 7 33922 67 109 9

33956

126 179 15 8 33955 51 72 6

33931

366 468 39 9 34134 569 581 48

33957

341 346 29 12

34119

24 24 2 12

34110

29 24 2

In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market update

A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.

Most agents can not see past their own financial status.

There are a lot of agents right now. These are only Residential sales in the MLS.

–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018.

–4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018.

Trends to Watch

2018 was pretty awesome across the mean.

3 months had more than 2,000 sales!

That may be hard to beat.

Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?

There are 153 homes with a year built 2017 and newer, that are active as of 1/16/2019.

843 have sold in the last 365 days.

That is 2.17 months inventory.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)

This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion

2018 was a great year from a statistical perspective.

It may be tough, just by the sheer numbers, to beat that year.

In 2016, all of the economic talking heads were calling for a recession 2 years out. In 2018, they were saying the same thing. At some point, it has to happen.

We have 2 different economic trends happening in real estate. The Baby Boomer generation retirement and the Millenial/Gen Z coming of age. Each will have different and specific impacts on the market.

Our SWFL REIA General Meeting is held in Fort Myers where we provide education on hot topics in investing and an opportunity to enjoy the camaraderie of your fellow investors. You’ll get a chance to ask for advice from successful real estate professionals and even make a few deals on your latest projects.

To become a member, anyone can register as an individual, a couple, or a corporation. Being a member opens the doors for endless networking opportunities, advice from members with decades of experience, new ideas from entrepreneurs, camaraderie with those just beginning, and deals and contracts done in the meeting room. For those interested in Cape Coral rental property investment and/or Fort Myers rental property investment, SWFL REIA will be able to provide a network to help launch a successful investment career.

The SWFL REIA is known and respected as a source of current, actionable and useful information about the housing market in the area that we meet.

We meet twice a month.

youtube

Click here for information about the monthly luncheon.

Click here for information about our nighttime general meeting.

One of the premier sources for real estate investing networking and education is the SWFL REIA. In the real estate world, the SWFL REIA is different in that they do not do information product sales. Their meetings are focusing on the best ways of investing in real estate by collaborating with other property investors who are sharing their experiences.

We look forward to meeting you at a meeting soon! Click here for membership information

Get our meeting notices and market data emailed to you.

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Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County

The post 2019 market outlook for Lee County appeared first on SWFL Real Estate Investing.

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chrisknolanfl · 5 years

Text

2019 market outlook for Lee County

The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019.

About the presentation:

Data from MLS (exported 1/14/2019 9:26 AM) and public records.

Trended with Microsoft Excel.

Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.

The information was prepared for the use of Steelbridge Realty and shared at the meeting.

youtube

Click here for the slides presented at the meeting 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?

December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that.

Let’s talk about the December 2018.

In my opinion, the stock market correcting was a few things:

Wall Street traders are/were reallocating for a cyclical bear market.

They did this because of Fed Bank rate hikes.

When the prime lending rate breaks 5.5%, we generally have a recession in 9 to 18 months.

Our leverage structure as a result of the aftermath of 2008 is different than in previous cycles.

High-Frequency trading went wild as a result.

The Plunge Protection Team Gone got involved.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018

2017

2018

% Difference

Sales Volume

$5,584,071,334 $6,164,000,697 10.39% Sales Counts 19,453 20,649

6.15%

Average Price

$287,055 $298,513

3.99%

Median Price $219,998 $227,900

3.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics

December 2017 versus December 2018

2017 2018

% Difference

Volume

$449,669,822 $415,682,106 -7.56% Counts 1,650 1,336

-19.03%

Average

$272,527 $311,139 14.17% Median $218,000 $230,000

5.50%

The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year Built

This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.

Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count Patterns

Almost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by price

The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the City

This is the entire year versus the entire year.

By City % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Sales Volume

Counts

Average Price

St. James City

19.76% 19.35%

0.34%

Sanibel

23.66% 15.09% 7.44% Punta Gorda 18.51% 14.29%

3.70%

North Fort Myers

10.61% 9.74% 0.79% Miromar Lakes 20.27% 22.54%

-1.85%

Lehigh Acres

9.81% 0.47% 9.29% Fort Myers Beach 3.98% 7.53%

-3.30%

Fort Myers

11.33% 7.05% 3.99% Estero 14.89% 12.25%

2.35%

Captiva

8.01% -14.10% 25.75%

Cape Coral

7.28% 3.71%

3.44%

Bonita Springs

4.40% 5.52% -1.06% Bokeelia 1.84% -0.89%

2.76%

Alva

37.11% 28.03%

7.09%

Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.

December vs December % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Volume Counts

Average Price

St. James City

-0.51% 0.00% -0.51%

Sanibel

-10.31% -20.83%

13.29%

Punta Gorda -4.08% 11.11%

-13.68%

North Fort Myers

-17.00% -28.87% 16.68%

Miromar Lakes

-18.96% 40.00% -42.11% Lehigh Acres -15.79% -18.54%

3.37%

Fort Myers Beach 21.64% 23.53%

-1.53%

Fort Myers

-16.59% -19.54% 3.67% Estero 15.48% -11.54%

30.54%

Captiva

-30.60% -50.00% 38.79%

Cape Coral

-25.50% -28.85% 4.70%

Bonita Springs

49.96% 5.98%

41.49%

Bokeelia

45.72% 10.00% 32.47% Alva 70.63% 20.00%

42.19%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015.

The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property type

Sales Counts by Property Type

2017

2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

12,519 13,295

6.20%

Villa Attached 811 884 9.00% Low Rise (1-3) 3,466 3,643

5.11%

Mid Rise (4-7)

709 778 9.73% Townhouse 742 738

-0.54%

High Rise (8+)

522 522 0.00% Manufactured 587 702

19.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type

Average Price 2017 Average Price 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

$319,728 $335,470 4.92%

Villa Attached

$207,076 $222,212 7.31%

Low Rise (1-3)

$206,005 $209,948 1.91% Mid Rise (4-7) $266,539 $263,556

-1.12%

Townhouse

$187,575 $195,226 4.08% High Rise (8+) $512,338 $526,010

2.67%

Manufactured

$106,816 $110,881

3.81%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Number of cash sales

7,988 8,306

3.98%

Cash % 41.06% 40.22%

-2.04%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Bank Owned

630 454 -27.94%

Bank Owned %

3.24% 2.20%

-32.11%

Short Sale

100 79 -21.00% Short Sale % 0.51% 0.38%

-25.58%

Total Distressed 3.75% 2.58%

-31.22%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics

2017 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Gulf Access Counts

2764 2797 1.19%

Gulf Access % of sales counts

14.21% 13.55%

-4.67%

Waterfront Sales Counts

6620 7028 6.16% Waterfront % of sales counts 34.03% 34.04%

0.01%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overview

As of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Lehigh Acres 746 2143 179

Cape Coral

2613 5846 487 5 Fort Myers 3144 6651 554

Alva

80 164 14 6 North Fort Myers 531 1073 89

Estero

807 1425 119 7 Bokeelia 67 108 9

Matlacha

21 32 3 8 St. James City 125 179 15

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Bonita Springs

1199 1710 143 8 Punta Gorda 51 72 6

Fort Myers Beach

363 465 39 9

Miromar Lakes

74 80 7

Sanibel 343 347 29

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code

Postal Code

Active listings annual sales counts monthly absorption Months of inventory

33972

104 350 29 4

33971

151 504 42

33976

114 335 28 4 33907 159 447 37

33905

224 615 51 4 33991 302 828 69

33974

121 330 28 4 33909 322 878 73

33973

22 58 5 5

33990

266 693 58

33967

219 526 44 5 33936 236 563 47

33919 462 1102 92

33917

286 631 53 5 33966 167 366 31

33914

726 1517 126 6 33928 512 1052 88

33913

478 970 81 6 33901 194 388 32

33904

558 1103 92 6

33912

355 661 55 6

33993

468 861 72

33903

248 447 37 7 33916 220 389 32

34135

832 1389 116 7 34135 832 1389 116

33908

816 1355 113 7 33922 67 109 9

33956

126 179 15 8 33955 51 72 6

33931

366 468 39 9 34134 569 581 48

33957

341 346 29 12

34119

24 24 2 12

34110

29 24 2

In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market update

A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.

Most agents can not see past their own financial status.

There are a lot of agents right now. These are only Residential sales in the MLS.

–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018.

–4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018.

Trends to Watch

2018 was pretty awesome across the mean.

3 months had more than 2,000 sales!

That may be hard to beat.

Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?

There are 153 homes with a year built 2017 and newer, that are active as of 1/16/2019.

843 have sold in the last 365 days.

That is 2.17 months inventory.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)

This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion

2018 was a great year from a statistical perspective.

It may be tough, just by the sheer numbers, to beat that year.

In 2016, all of the economic talking heads were calling for a recession 2 years out. In 2018, they were saying the same thing. At some point, it has to happen.

We have 2 different economic trends happening in real estate. The Baby Boomer generation retirement and the Millenial/Gen Z coming of age. Each will have different and specific impacts on the market.

The SWFL REIA is known and respected as a source of current, actionable and useful information about the housing market in the area that we meet.

We meet twice a month.

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Click here for information about the monthly luncheon.

Click here for information about our nighttime general meeting.

We look forward to meeting you at a meeting soon! Click here for membership information

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Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County

The post 2019 market outlook for Lee County appeared first on SWFL Real Estate Investing.

from SWFL Real Estate Investing https://swflreia.com/2019/01/28/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county/ from SWFL REIA https://swflreia.tumblr.com/post/182382227744

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