19kidsandcourting

[19kidsandcourting]

Well, y’all. A Rodriguii is officially in a courtship with someone from my very small hometown, which means it’s also officially too weird and too close to home for me to feel comfortable continuing to snark online. (Also Jill posted a picture a few weeks ago with my ex’s grandfather — I have no words). To clarify, though — I do not know homeboy’s family.

In retrospect, my mom and sister told me several weeks ago that they saw a family “that looks like the Duggars used to look” unpile out of a church van in town, so I’m left wondering about the likelihood that my family saw the Rodrigues family in the wild.

Anyway. I think it’s time for me to just lurk quietly online and leave the blog behind — maybe not forever, but definitely for a bit. I’ve been reeling from the proximity of the Rods for a bit and this is just too much for me at the moment, lol. It’s been a fun four years!

#rodrigues family #fundie snark

[19kidsandcourting]

The Next 6 Months:  September 2021–February 2022

Here we go again!  It’s your monthly installment of “The Next 6 Months.”  Just ahead—

What happened last month (August 2021)?  Was it early, late, or what?

Did anyone miss a deadline in August 2021?  Who, and for what?

Who all is “late” for their next event, and what’s their next deadline?

What’s forecast from now through February 2022?

Latest Events—

Carlin (Bates) + Evan Stewart announced Pregnancy #2 on August 30, 2021 via E! News, YouTube, and Carlin’s IG.  Apparently, Carlin is due in April; Duggar Data is using April 9, 2022 as an ADD.  (Data Analysis.)

Erin (Bates) + Chad Paine shocked everyone by announcing that Erin is pregnant, despite multiple ovarian surgeries.  People got the exclusive on August 24.  Duggar Data is using February 22, 2022 as the ADD.  (Data Analysis.  Note—Her ADD shifted after the Initial Analysis.)

Priscilla (Keller) + David Waller announced Pregnancy #6 pretty much right on time, on August 17, 2021.  Priscilla is due in January 2022, and Duggar Data is using January 22nd as an ADD.  (Data Analysis.  Note—Priscilla’s ADD shifted after the Initial Analysis.)

Jennifer (Hartono) Toto, a close friend of the Duggars, announced her 1st Pregnancy on August 14, 2021.  She’s due on February 16, 2022.

Duggar Data officially stopped following Karissa + Mandrae Collins on August 14, 2021.  Sorry to anyone who is disappointed by this! 

Courtney + Christoper Rogers confirmed that they’re expecting Rogers #12 on August 7, 2021, after teasing it for a few days.  Courtney is due in Early March, and Duggar Data is using March 5, 2022 as a ADD.  (Data Analysis.)

Nathan Bates + Esther Keyes shared via Esther’s Instagram Story (on August 4, 2021) that they’ll be tying the knot on October 22, 2021.

Kristen + Justin Young did a Sex Reveal for Young #4 on August 1st…  It’s a girl.  Kristen is due in December.  Duggar Data is using December 16, 2021 as her ADD.

Just Missed A Deadline—

The Couples below weren’t ‘late,’ but now are…

Meagan (Forsyth) + Bobby Ballinger did not announce Pregnancy #4 on August 4, which would’ve been On–Time.  Their Rescheduled Date (RD) is September 22, 2021 (+0.5 SD).

Joy–Anna (Duggar) + Austin Forsyth failed to announce Pregnancy 3 On–Time, on August 13.  Their RD is October 26, 2021 (+0.5 SD).

Joshua + Cassidy (Bowers) Bontrager didn’t announce Pregnancy #3 on August 28, which would’ve been On–Time.  Their RD is November 6, 2021 (+0.5 SD).

Renée Rodrigues was due to start courting on August 31, but nothing has been announced.  Her RD is May 1, 2022 (+0.5 SD).

The Couples below were already ‘late,’ and just missed another deadline…

Jesse + Anna P. (Craig) Maxwell failed to announce Pregnancy #1 on August 4 (+1.5 SDs).  Their RD is September 29, 2021 (+2 SDs).

Sierra + Mark Dominguez still haven’t announced Pregnancy #8, and missed another deadline on August 11 (+2.5 SDs).  Their RD is October 19, 2021 (+3 SDs).  

Josiah + Lauren (Swanson) Duggar once again didn’t announce their 2nd Pregnancy…  They were expected to do so on August 14 (+2 SDs).  Their RD is now October 27, 2021 (+2.5 SDs).

John + Abbie (Burnett) Duggar didn’t announce Pregnancy #2 on the +0.5 SD RD of August 23, 2021.  RD is November 4, 2021 (+1 SD).

Esther (Keller) + John Shrader failed to announce Pregnancy #13 on August 30, 2021 (+1.5 SDs).  Their RD is October 19, 2021 (+2 SDs).

What’s Next?  (September 2021–February 2022)—

09–01–21   Justin + Claire (Spivey) Duggar announce Pregnancy #1.

09–02–21   Priscilla (Keller) + David Waller do a Sex Reveal for Waller #6.

09–05–21   Stephen Wissmann proposes to Jana Duggar.  (Assumes they started courting at Christmas 2020.)

09–21–21   Erin (Bates) + Chad Paine due a joint Sex + Name Reveal for Paine #5.

09–24–21   Lawson Bates ‘courtposes’ to Tiffany Espensen.  (Assumes they’ve been pre–courting, rather than courting, since September.)

09–29–21   Jesse + Anna Patrice (Craig) Maxwell announce Pregnancy #1.  (2 SDs Late!)

10–03–21   Jennifer (Hartono) + Josh Toto do a Sex Reveal for Toto #1.

10–07–21   Jed + Katey (Nakatsu) Duggar announce Pregnancy #1.

10–14–21   Courtney + Christopher Rogers do a Sex Reveal for Rogers #12.

10–16–21   Keller–Rodrigues #1 born to Nurie (Rodrigues) + Nathan Keller.

10–19–21   Sierra + Mark Dominguez announce Pregnancy #8.  (3 SDs Late!)

10–19–21   Esther (Keller) + John Shrader announce Pregnancy #13.  (2 SDs Late!)

10–22–21   Nathan Bates marries Esther Keyes.  (Confirmed.)

10–24–21   Joseph + Elissa Maxwell announce Pregnancy #4.

10–25–21   Anna Elizabeth Maxwell starts courting.  (2.5 SDs Late!)

10–26–21   Joy + Austin (Forsyth) Duggar announce Pregnancy #3.  (0.5 SD Late!)

10–27–21   Josiah + Lauren (Swanson) Duggar announce Pregnancy #2.  (2.5 SDs Late!)

11–04–21   John + Abbie (Burnett) Duggar announce Pregnancy #2.  (1 SD Late!)

11–06–21   Joshua + Cassidy (Bowers) Bontrager announce Pregnancy #3.  (0.5 SD Late!)

11–17–21   Duggar–Keller #7 born to Josh + Anna (Keller) Duggar.  (But, this is based on a very, very speculative Due Date.)

11–24–21   Carlin (Bates) + Evan Stewart due a joint Sex + Name Reveal for Stewart #2.

11–26–21   Denver + Praise (Helferich) Bontrager announce Pregnancy #1.

12–03–21   Katie Bates marries Travis Clark.  (Confirmed.)

12–04–21   Lauren Caldwell starts courting.

12–10–21   Jana Duggar marries Stephen Wissmann.

12–11–21   David Keller marries Hannah Reber.  (Confirmed.)

12–15–21   Young #4 born to Kristen + Justin Young.

12–23–21   Joe + Kendra (Caldwell) Duggar announce Pregnancy #4.

01–16–22   Kaylee Rodrigues starts courting.  (1 SD Late!)

01–26–22   Waller #6 born to Priscilla (Keller) + David Waller.

01–26–22   Paine #5 born to Erin (Bates) + Chad Paine.

02–22–22   Lauren Caldwell gets engaged.

Nothing New For—

Bateses   Zach + Whitney, Alyssa + John, Tori + Bobby, Trace, Josie + Kelton, Jackson to Jeb

Bontragers   Chelsy + John, Mitchell + Bryn, Allison + Jeremiah, Carson + Carolina, Taylor to Rebecca

Caldwells   Micah to Moriah

Duggars   Jessa + Ben, Jinger + Jeremy, Jer, Jason, James, Jackson to Josie

Maxwells   Mary Maxwell

Rodriguii   Timothy, Renee, Phillip to Janessa

Prediction is halted for Jill + Derick Dillard [Birth Control], Michaela + Brandon Keilen [Infertility], and Chris + Anna Marie Maxwell [Anna Marie’s Cancer], and Sarah Maxwell [Age].  Prediction was halted for Erin (Bates) + Chad Paine due to their representation that they could no longer conceive—but has started up again, since that’s apparently not the case.

The Predictor assumes that all of the following couples’ quivers are complete:  Gil + Kelly Bates, Marlin + Becky Bontrager, Paul + Christina Caldwell, J.B. + Michelle Duggar, Mike + Suzette Keller, Steve + Teri Maxwell, Nathan + Melanie Maxwell, and Jill + David Rodrigues.        

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Estimated Size of Quiver (ESOQ), August 2021

Ask, and you shall receive!  Here’s the latest Estimated Size of Quiver (ESOQ) update for all Predictor Couples.  Each ESOQ is listed, along with the change since the Prior ESOQ (February 2021)—

The Bateses—

Zach + Whitney   10 Children  (No Change)

Michaela + Brandon   0 Children  (No Change)

Erin + Chad   4 Children  (No Change)  

Lawson + Tiffany   12 Children  (–1 Child)

Nathan + Esther   12 Children  (No Change)

Alyssa + John   17 Children  (No Change)

Tori + Bobby   18 Children  (No Change)

Trace   12 Children  (No Change)

Carlin + Evan   13 Children  (–3 Children)

Josie + Kelton   17 Children  (+1 Child)

Katie + Travis   18 Children  (–1 Child)

Younger Males   13 Children Each  (–1 Child)

Younger Females   17 Children Each  (–1 Child)

Overall, Gil + Kelly’s 19 Children are expected to produce 249 Grandchildren (vs. 261 in February; –12 Grands), which is a rate of 13.1 Grands Per Child. 

The Bontragers—

Chelsy + John   10 Children  (+1 Child)

Mitchell + Bryn   9 Children  (No Change)

Allison + Jeremiah   11 Children  (–2 Children)

Carson + Carolina   8 Children  (No Change)

Joshua + Cassidy   11 Children  (No Change)

Denver + Praise   8 Children  (+1 Child)

Younger Males   9 Children Each  (+2 Children Each)

Younger Females   9 Children Each  (+1 Child Each)

Currently, Marlin + Becky are expecting 93 Grandchildren (vs. 87 in February; +6 Grands) from their 10 Children.  That’s a rate of 9.3 Grands Per Child.

The Caldwells—

Paul + Christina   9 Children  (Quiver Presumed Complete)

Kendra + Joe   17 Children  (No Change)

Lauren   8 Children  (–1 Child)

Younger Males   10 Children Each  (+1 Child Each)

Younger Females   10 Children Each  (No Change)

Doing the math, Paul + Christina are forecast to have 95 Grandchildren (vs. 91 in February; +4 Grands) from their 9 Children.  That’s a rate of 9.5 Grands Per Child.  

The Duggars—

Josh + Anna   12 Children  (+1 Child)

Jana + Stephen   7 Children

John + Abbie   7 Children  (–1 Child)

Jill + Derick   2 Children  (No Change)

Jessa + Ben   12 Children  (No Change)

Jinger + Jeremy   10 Children  (No Change)

Joe + Kendra   17 Children  (No Change)

Josiah + Lauren   11 Children  (–2 Children)

Joy + Austin   16 Children  (No Change)

Jed + Katey   11 Children  (No Change)

Jeremiah   11 Children  (No Change)

Jason   12 Children  (–1 Child)

James   12 Children  (–1 Child)

Justin + Claire   13 Children  (No Change)

Jackson   12 Children  (–1 Child)

Tyler Hutchins   12 Children

Younger Females   14 Children Each  (–1 Child Each)

As of now, Jim Bob + Michelle are on–track for 233 Grandchildren (vs. 230 in February; +3 Grands) from 20 Children (19 Biological Children + Tyler)—a rate of 11.65 Grands Per Child.       

The [Quiverfull] Kellers—

The Predictor will predict for David Keller + Hannah Reber, considering them a likely quiverfull couple.  They recently got engaged.

Esther + John   14 Children  (–1 Child)

Priscilla + David   10 Children  (No Change)

Anna + Josh   12 Children  (+1 Child)

Nathan + Nurie   10 Children  (–1 Child; Based on Keller Data)

David + Hannah   9 Children

Currently, Mike + Suzette are predicted to have 55 Grandchildren from their 5 Quiverfull Children, which is a rate of 11 Children Per QF Child.  (In February, they were expected to have 47 Grandchildren, so there’s technically a change of +8 Grands; however, this is almost entirely attributable to David + Hannah’s new status as a likely quiverfull couple.)

The Maxwells—

Nathan + Melanie   7 Children  (NC; Quiver Presumed Complete)

Chris + Anna Marie   6 Children  (No Change)

Sarah   0 Children  (No Change)

Joseph + Elissa   8 Children  (No Change)

John + Chelsy   10 Children  (+1 Child)

Anna Elizabeth   7 Children  (+1 Child)

Jesse + Anna Patrice   11 Children  (–2 Children)

Mary   8 Children  (–1 Child) 

As of August 2021, Steve + Teri are on–track to have 57 Grandchildren (vs. 58 in February; –1 Grand) from their 8 Children.  That’s a rate of 7.125 Grands Per Child. 

The Rodriguii—

J–Rod + David   13 Children  (Quiver Presumed Complete)

Nurie + Nathan   17 Children  (+6 Children; Based on Rodrigues Data)

Younger Males   14 Children Each  (No Change)

Younger Females   13 Children Each  (No Change)

Currently, Jill + David are forecast to have 164 Grandchildren (vs. 171 back in February; –7 Grands) from 13 Children, a rate of 12.6 Grands Per Child.       

Everyone Else—

Meagan (Forsyth) + Bobby Ballinger   10 Children  (No Change)

Karissa + Mandrae Collins   11 Children  (No Change)    

Sierra + Mark Dominguez   12 Children  (–1 Child)

Courtney + Christopher Rogers   14 Children  (No Change)

Kristen + Justin Young   9 Children

[19kidsandcourting]

sometimes reddit is good

[19kidsandcourting]

All four Seewald babies as newborns! At this point they’re still too squishy to me to *really* see resemblances, but after watching the birth vlog, I think Spurgeon and Ivy look alike and Henry and Fern look alike.

#duggars #duggar family #ben and jessa seewald #baby seewald 4 #spurgeon seewald #henry seewald #ivy jane seewald #fern seewald

[19kidsandcourting]

Part 2. Sex of baby and name.

Edit: Its a girl. Fern Elliana Seewald

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[19kidsandcourting]

Clearly I’m spending way too much time thinking about fundies, because I’ve started dreaming about them again lol. Had a dream last week that Jessa and Ben had a baby girl, named Lillian (I’m crossing my fingers for another boy). Last night, I dreamed that Justin and Claire announced a pregnancy. 

Just wanted to throw these out there in case my subconscious knows something I don’t! 

#fundie #fundie dreams

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Hazel Sloane is here

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Jed and Katey seem to have started a YouTube channel. Maybe they plan on uploading the full wedding at some point?

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John and Abbie Duggar's Instagram: April 29, 2021

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Rodrigues Family Instagram: April 27, 2021

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Caldwell Family Instagram: April 28, 2021

Caldwells are at Big Sandy.

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Tiffany and Lawson's Instagrams: April 27, 2021

Lawson responds to someone in the comments that they are not vaccinated.

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Jinger Vuolo IG

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Waller Family Instagram: April 27, 2021

I totally forgot Big Sandy is this week (April 26-30)! I always associate it with summer break, but I guess if you're homeschooling you can schedule around going in April.