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nox-th-lk-sf · 2 years

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Was Loki The Series Truly A Success?

One thing I keep noticing in posts both from people who liked the Loki series and didn’t like the Loki series is that the show was a success. And the show was certainly not a gigantic flop. Just as no one thought a project with Tom Hiddleston as Loki would be.

But was the series a success? I mean, sure, first week, definitely. It had the highest ratings for a premier in Disney+ history. So, yeah, after the first week, you could definitely say Loki was a hit.

But this wasn’t a one-time event. It was six episodes. And ultimately, a show is not judged by the premier ratings. That’s why you can see a show get cancelled after one season after a premier that got amazing ratings. Ultimately, just the thrill of tuning in to see Hiddleston play Loki again is going to wear off. People have to at least somewhat like the actual series itself to keep watching. Or the buzz about the show has to be so great that even if original fans don’t continue watching, new fans will replace them. So did the show do that?

Because it’s not unheard of for a show to do great in a premier and then fall off so hard they don’t last much longer. This is a dated reference so some of you younger fans on here may not know this (or you may not remember this), but have you heard of the show My Big Fat Greek Life? If you haven’t, you can google it. Or I can just tell you about it here.

I thought this show would be a great comparison because there are similarities to it and Loki. Which I know sounds weird, but this show was based on a popular movie (My Big Fat Greek Wedding) with the same actress in a similar type role as the movie. Just like with Loki being a character from popular movies with the same actor in the same role. So both shows had a lot of people interested in the beginning. And the premier of My Big Fat Greek Life was a huge hit ratings wise. But after the premier of My Big Fat Greek Life, people stopped watching and the show only lasted a season.

So how did Loki do after the premier? Well, let’s look at ratings given by Samba TV. They judge viewership by household. All viewers have to be unique viewers. It’s obviously not a perfect way of tracking viewership (what is?) but it gives a good picture of what the viewership looks like.

So, Loki started with 2.5M viewers. And the last episode had 1.9M. Which obviously is a big drop.

Just how big of a drop? Well, to compare it to its two Marvel show contemporaries, look at its ratings projection versus WandaVision and TFATWS. I made this because I think it really shows the difference between the shows:

Sure, the finales of WandaVision and TFATWS also had less viewers than their premiers. But the way that Loki dropped viewers versus the other two shows is kind of mind-boggling, really. TFATWS had a decrease in ratings of about 5.5%. WandaVision had 12.5%. Loki had a 24% drop (!!!). That is really bad. There are no other ways around it.

But ultimately, this is just one number metric. And I’d like to look at more. Because I love numbers. And I had a marketing professor once tell me in college she would also give out a good grade if people had the numbers to back up their point even if she didn’t agree with it.

I think the best post with the best numbers is this post on Reddit, so I want to give credit where credit is due. After I messed around looking at the numbers provided by Samba TV, they pointed me to find other useful numbers:

This post shows how Loki’s ratings dropped over lots of different metrics. I definitely recommend a read. One thing I found interesting from reading this post is to look at how the show did post the premier.

Now, if a streaming show really catches on with viewers, people should start watching after the series ends, right? Like, I didn’t watch Stranger Things season one right away but after so much buzz, I tried the first episode and then stayed up all night watching the whole first season. That’s how viral shows work. People like to binge watch and series with good buzz people binge watch, right? Additionally, if the show was truly wonderful for all of Loki’s many fans they’d want to keep watching the show over and over, right?

So one thing I find interesting then is the numbers provided by Nielsen. Nielsen tracks minutes people watch rather than unique viewers like Samba TV. That is why I prefer numbers by Samba TV because it gives you a better indication of overall viewership rather than just what show has huge fans who watch the show over and over. But, it is still definitely worth looking at Nielsen’s numbers. They tell you not only numbers of different viewers but also can show you how passionate viewers are of a show. And the numbers by Nielsen paint an interesting picture. Especially when you look after the show ends.

So I made a chart showing the number of minutes watched during the week of the finale and then the two weeks after that for Loki and for TFATWS and WandaVision.

Now, all three shows had worse numbers after the finale. Which of course makes sense. There were no new episodes to watch and most people (outside of dedicated fans) don’t watch a series over again right after they watched it the first time.

But where it gets interesting is two weeks after the finale. That’s where, if the buzz was good, people should be trying this show and watching the whole season. Or it should be when satisfied fans watch their favorite scenes again and again.

But after the initial drop of views after the finale, when you look at the second week after the finale, the numbers for TFATWS and WandaVision kind of leveled off. But Loki’s numbers continue to nosedive. So much so that Loki had the worst numbers for all three shows two weeks after the finale. Even though they had the best numbers for the finale (and the premier)!

Numbers can always be spun positively. That’s how things work. I took enough marketing classes to know this. But it’s hard to spin those numbers positively. It just is. Numbers don’t lie.

And here are some other numbers that don’t look great for the series. I took this quote directly from the above mentioned Reddit post:

Flexpatrol says Loki dropped out of Disney+ top 10 faster than the other two shows (Loki stayed in top 10 for only 60 days vs 95+ and 105+ days for the other two shows in most territories).

Sorry but again...these numbers don’t paint the story of a show that was successful.

One thing that’s interesting, too, when you look at these numbers is that it’s not people deciding they dislike Tom Hiddleston or anything. Not that anyone would (or should) think that, of course, but if you click here, you’ll see that Tom Hiddleston was, per Parrot Analytics, the most in demand actor for the entire United States for July 20th through August 18, 2021 (and 9th for the world!). So people want to see Tom Hiddleston. Just, it appears, not the Loki series.

And I know I said I like numbers and if you’re like me, you may not take the next information as seriously. But I also noticed some non-number metrics.

From my own eye test, the show didn’t feel like a success. And what I mean by that is word of mouth. I’m talking about with the general public. Not with just Marvel fans.

Now, we are living in a world with a pandemic still going on, so there really can’t be “water cooler” moments like there used to be. A lot of us (myself included) are working out of the home still so we can’t really use office buzz as a metric like we used to. And I don’t go out of the house like I did pre the pandemic.

But I can say from my own experience, during the first two weeks of the show, I did hear random people talking about how good the show was as I went out and about during my day, like in the line at Zaxby’s.

But after the first two weeks? I haven’t heard a peep. I have worn my Loki Mickey ears at Disney World after that. I have gotten compliments on it. But when I have talked to people about It and about Loki I’ve mentioned I didn’t like the show, and the other person without fail always says oh I never watched the show (I promptly recommend to them not to watch it!).

And I do participate in other non-MCU fandoms online. One of those is a Los Angeles Lakers Reddit, and when WandaVision was going, people would talk about that show on the Lakers reddit and someone even posted a video of the trailer redone with LA Lakers players. But Loki the series? The only time someone brought it up was to say the show was dumb. That’s it.

Now, I am not surprised so many people think the show was a success. Disney and Marvel have deep, deep pockets and they work very hard to make sure people think all of their projects are a huge hit. And there are good numbers they can tout, like the numbers for the finale. They brag about the numbers when they can and stay quiet when they can’t, and they spin everything to look as good as possible.

But you know Disney and Marvel have to notice these numbers. Now obviously the show is coming back for a season two. But from everything I heard before the series even started, that decision had already been made before the first episode aired. So they might be “stuck” with a season two in a way.

But other things we have learned since the show ended don’t exactly paint the best picture in the world. Kate Herron immediately announced she wasn’t coming back. She said it was her decision. And obviously I don’t know her and of course it could be. Though she said it was to do her own projects and so far nothing has been announced.

But it seems like even if she wanted to do her own thing, she could have worked her own things around the schedule for season two. If the show had been really successful in Disney and Marvel’s eyes, you think they would have worked hard to keep her. At the very least, it would have been days before she announced she was gone as they tried to coax her into a salary she couldn’t refuse. But...none of that.

And then there’s Michael Waldron. He said he might or might not be back next year. Why not just say he’s back? If Disney wanted him gone, unlike with Herron, it would be a bit more complicated. Because he already wrote the Doctor Strange sequel before the show aired and the movie is already done. So Disney and Marvel want everyone to think Waldron’s writing was as successful as possible to help the movie. But if they really loved his writing, wouldn’t they have secured him for season two? And why would be so vague? Wouldn’t Disney and Marvel want fans to be reassured at least Waldron was coming back if they thought fans really liked season one?

And then’s look at what Feige said recently about season two. Here’s a snippet from this Collider article:

As for when Loki Season 2 might start filming, Feige promised he’s “not being evasive” but said he’s “not sure exactly where it falls between next year and the year after.”

Okay, now it sounds like there are a lot of things up in the air about season two. Which doesn’t seem likely if Marvel and Disney were happy with season one. I do understand that in the MCU it’s trickier than with standalone shows and everything has to work together on a schedule. But at the same time, if it was a big hit, you’d think they’d want to get a season two out as soon as possible.

I’ve paid a lot of attention to Disney as a company the last few years because I am a super business nerd and I know a big part of their business plan is wrapped up in Disney Plus. They believe streaming is the future. They have assured their shareholders that this will earn them a lot of money. If they thought Loki really helped Disney Plus, they would be begging Marvel to get a second season out as soon as possible. But, they’re not.

Which of course leads me to believe that Disney does not view Loki as a success. They had already renewed the series. And they know the potential of the show. They saw the early numbers. So that makes me think wonder if there is a break because Disney wants Marvel to retool the show. Because Disney saw the numbers that are out there and can plainly see no matter what they tell us viewers and (more importantly to them) their shareholders, they know the show did not live up to its potential and it needs to be changed if it is to be successful. Because season one, by all metrics I can see, just wasn’t.

TLDR: Marvel & Disney want you to think Loki was a success. And initially it was because of Loki & Tom’s popularity. But if you look at lots of numbers, the ratings declined at rates far worse than WandaVision & TFATWS which really makes you think the show wasn’t as big of a success as Disney & Marvel would have you believe

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