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Who really won these recent NFL trades? Barnwell reevaluates 18, from OBJ to Mack

7:20 AM ETEvaluating NFL trades in the moment is, to put it nicely, an inexact science. Teams have more information about their players than the public does. The more honest organizations around the NFL will tell you that even they don't know how a guy they're acquiring might fit in their scheme or with his new teammates. The smartest organizations in the league have made some extremely bad trades. Deals that looked like steals at the time haven't been anywhere near as impressive with two or three years of perspective.Let's take a step back and evaluate 18 trades from the 2018 and 2019 seasons and figure out who really won the deal. I wrote about many of these deals at the time and gave my opinion when they happened, and in each case, I'll offer up my perception of how they were regarded by the broader NFL audience when they happened.Then, with the benefit of hindsight, I'll look back at what happened and where both the public and I went right or wrong in our evaluations at the time. In some cases, what was seen as a clear victory for one side in the past has turned out that way. In others, things have flipped in the opposite direction.I picked the most significant trades from those two years, and we'll start with the first one in 2018 and work our way through 2019 in chronological order.Jump to a big trade: Odell Beckham Jr. | Amari Cooper Minkah Fitzpatrick | Khalil Mack Jalen Ramsey | Laremy Tunsil

The date: Feb. 23, 2018Rams got: CB Marcus Peters, 2018 sixth-round pick Chiefs got: 2018 fourth-round pick, 2019 second-round pickRams draft pick became: Part of the package going to the Dolphins with Robert Quinn in exchange for center Brian Allen Chiefs draft picks became: S Armani Watts, S Juan Thornhill2 RelatedAt the time: This was the first of two big trades by the Rams in the 2018 offseason, as they acquired a star cornerback who curiously seemed to be available on the cheap. Peters had intercepted 19 passes over his first three seasons with Kansas City, but the Chiefs had grown tired of Peters, who had been suspended for a game by the team and reportedly been less than fond of physical contact. Getting Peters without having to give up a first-round pick -- or even a second-round pick in the 2018 draft -- was seen as a coup for the Rams in most circles.What happened: Peters had an uneven season-plus with the Rams, never looking comfortable or reliable in Wade Phillips' defense. The ball hawk did pick off five passes in 22 games, but the Rams eventually traded Peters to the Ravens in what amounted to a salary dump as they were about to acquire Jalen Ramsey. (Los Angeles did, at the very least, resist the urge to give Ramsey a significant extension.) We'll get to both of those deals later. The Chiefs turned the second-round pick into Thornhill, who has been an above-average safety when healthy.In hindsight: Win for Chiefs

The date: March 17, 2018Jets got: 2018 first-round pick Colts got: 2018 first-round pick, two 2018 second-round picks, 2019 second-round pickJets draft picks became: QB Sam Darnold Colts draft picks became: G Quenton Nelson, OT Braden Smith, EDGE Kemoko Turay, RB Jordan Wilkins, CB Rock Ya-SinAt the time: The Jets moved up three spots in the first round to get their quarterback, but was it enough? Former general manager Mike Maccagnan's team moved up to only the No. 3 spot, which left the possibility that the Giants could draft Darnold at No. 2 and leave the Jets thinking about another option under center. Thankfully, whether the Jets knew what was going to happen or not, the Giants drafted Saquon Barkley and the Jets landed Darnold. The Colts were set for years to come with Andrew Luck at quarterback, although he had missed the entire 2017 season. This seemed like it could be a win-win.What happened: It was a win-loss. The missing draft picks kept the Jets from surrounding Darnold with talent, but even when he had a clean pocket, he just wasn't very good in his three seasons with the Jets. The new regime just unloaded Darnold on the Panthers to start over with Zach Wilson.The Colts turned the four selections they got from the Jets into five players, three of whom are steady starters. Drafting Nelson alone would have been a massive victory, as the guard is three seasons into what looks to be a Hall of Fame career. Landing an above-average tackle in Smith only added to the haul, although Turay and Ya-Sin haven't necessarily lived up to expectations as second-rounders. Of course, the Colts did end up needing a quarterback after Luck retired, but even if general manager Chris Ballard had known so at the time, it's unclear whether Darnold would have been the answer.In hindsight: Big win for Colts

The date: April 3, 2018Rams got: WR Brandin Cooks, 2018 fourth-round pick Patriots got: 2018 first-round pick, 2016 sixth-round pickRams draft pick became: LB Micah Kiser, EDGE Trevon Young, LB Travin Howard (minus a seventh-rounder sent out as part of another deal)Patriots draft picks became: OT Isaiah Wynn, TE Ryan Izzo, CB Keion Crossen, pick used to move up three spots for Byron CowartAt the time: The Patriots essentially loaned Cooks for a year by sending a first-round pick to the Saints to acquire the talented wideout, then shipping him off to the Rams for another first-rounder the following season. Bill Belichick enjoyed a season from Cooks on a rookie deal, while the Rams acquired Cooks in advance of what was going to be a new contract. This seemed smart by the Patriots, but there wasn't much criticism of the Rams adding another weapon for Jared Goff.What happened: The Rams gave Cooks and Todd Gurley massive contract extensions that summer, and they both turned out to be disasters. I wasn't as pessimistic about the Cooks deal as I was about Gurley's at the time, but the Rams committed significant money to Cooks with Robert Woods already paid. They also handed out extensions to Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee, leaving Cooks as an expensive third wideout.Brandin Cooks had just 583 receiving yards and two touchdowns in 2019, his final season with the Rams before he was traded again to Houston. AP Photo/Marcio Jose SanchezWhile the Rams made the Super Bowl in Cooks' first season, a second season marred by concussions led Los Angeles to cut ties. After paying him $38.5 million for two seasons of work, general manager Les Snead shipped Cooks to the Texans for a second-round pick, creating $21.8 million in dead money for the Rams on their 2020 cap in the process. Cooks is a good wide receiver and was valuable in 2018 -- and the contract was only implicitly part of the trade -- but you don't trade a first-round pick for a player and plan on dealing him one year into an $81 million extension. Landing Kiser in the middle rounds helps only a tiny bit.The Patriots used the first-rounder from the Rams to grab their left tackle of the future in Wynn, whose biggest problem has been availability; he has missed 30 of his first 48 games with a torn Achilles, turf toe and an ankle injury. He's a talented player, but the 25-year-old probably has $40 million in guarantees riding on a healthy season in 2021.In hindsight: Win for Patriots

The date: April 26, 2018Saints got: 2018 first-round pick Packers got: 2018 first-round pick, 2018 fifth-round pick, 2019 first-round pickSaints draft pick became: EDGE Marcus Davenport Packers draft picks became: Most of the package to trade up for CB Jaire Alexander and S Darnell Savage in separate deals and part of the package to move up for LB Oren BurksAt the time: Coming off one of the most successful drafts in NFL history, the Saints decided to ride the draft rush and trust their board. Even with them finishing toward the bottom of the first round, sending two first-round picks to the Packers for an edge rusher in Davenport implied that they valued him as something like a top-five pick in a typical draft. (By Chase Stuart's chart, this comes in as something between picks No. 2 and 3.) It was a lot to pay, but the Saints had proved themselves to be great drafters with the class of 2017, and if this was the last piece they needed to win a Super Bowl, why not?What happened: Davenport hasn't lived up to that level of play, in part because of injuries. He's a solid two-way edge defender, but the 14th overall selection has 12 sacks over his first three seasons and played behind Trey Hendrickson for most of 2020. This was a big risk for a Saints team that was already heading toward cap concerns, in part because trading up cost New Orleans the ability to use that first-round pick in 2019 to add another cheap, cost-controlled player. As good as the 2017 class was, one of the reasons it became so valuable is because the Saints had extra picks with which to work.The Packers have to be thrilled with how this turned out, although judging it is complicated. General manager Brian Gutekunst dropped from No. 14 to No. 27 in the first round of 2018 as part of this deal, but the Packers then used the 27th pick and third- and sixth-round selections to move back up to 18 and grab Alexander. The fifth-rounder from the Saints was used to move up a round and pick Burks, and in 2019, the Packers used the Saints' pick and a pair of fourth-rounders to move up in the first round and take Savage. New Orleans traded up, but the Packers landed the two best players in this deal.In hindsight: Big win for Packers

The date: Sept. 1, 2018Bears got: EDGE Khalil Mack, 2020 second-round pick, 2020 conditional pick Raiders got: 2019 first-round pick, 2019 sixth-round pick, 2020 first-round pick, 2020 third-round pickBears draft picks became: TE Cole Kmet, G Arlington Hambright Raiders draft picks became: RB Josh Jacobs, CB Damon Arnette, WR Bryan Edwards, sixth-round pick thrown in as part of pair of trade-downsAt the time: Depends on whom you ask. Getting Mack seemed to most like a huge coup for the Bears, who got a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and possible future Hall of Famer for a bunch of draft picks. Some members of the analytics community disagreed, as the Raiders were awarded a trophy for "Best Transaction" during the 2019 MIT Sloan Sports Conference, even after Mack had an All-Pro season in 2018.I was somewhere in the middle at the time; Mack was a great player, but by giving him a massive deal and trading away multiple first-rounders, the Bears needed him to be the best non-quarterback in the league to justify the price tag. They were also locking themselves into a core built around Mitchell Trubisky, who had just finished an inauspicious rookie season. What happened: I don't think either side was right. Mack was incredible in prime time against the Packers in Week 1 and dominated for most of 2018, producing 12.5 sacks and six forced fumbles. The Bears rode Mack and their interception rate regressing past the mean to a division title. Trubisky and Matt Nagy's offense took some unearned hype along the way and sputtered in the playoffs, as it could muster only 15 points before Cody Parkey missed a would-be game winner from 43 yards out.Since then, Mack has been good, but whether it's due to nagging injuries or randomness, he hasn't seriously challenged for the Defensive Player of the Year award. Trubisky flamed out, and the Bears have sorely missed the draft picks they would have used to supplement the roster around their passer. After they tried and failed with Nick Foles, they were forced to send two first-round picks to acquire their next quarterback of the future in Justin Fields, who will be surrounded by below-average talent on offense and a rebuilding defense.At the same time, the Raiders haven't gotten much from their picks. Jacobs has been a solid power back, but Jon Gruden doesn't trust him to play consistently on third downs, and it's just too easy to find two-down halfbacks in the middle rounds of the draft or for cheap in free agency. Edwards looks like a promising prospect at wide receiver, but the other first-rounder in this group was Arnette, whose most notable contribution to the Raiders as a rookie was not sinking deep enough as a Tampa 2 corner on the Ryan Fitzpatrick bomb that helped kick Las Vegas out of the playoff picture last December. The sixth-round pick was used as ballast as the Raiders traded down twice in the second round in 2020. I'm not sure Mack was worth what the Bears paid, but I don't think the Raiders can feel good about their return, either.In hindsight: Slight win for Bears

The date: Oct. 22, 2018Cowboys got: WR Amari Read the full article

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