#People getting on the DVD cover if they do REMOTELY well: Ianthe/Dulcinea/John/Augustine/Any Smart Mom-Types/Nona/Any Godfather Type

[demethinkstoomuch]

How Would The Locked Tomb Cast Do At Survivor?

Yes, it is time for my highly-researched opinions about how my current hyperfixation’s cast would do at my favorite reality game show!

I went through big chunks of the cast and sorted them into groups by playstyle/likely outcome/role in the season.  A few characters are not easily sorted into a group, so they’re on their own. This mostly assumes the cast is isolated, though I may assume “someone like so and so” as options for tribemates; if I have a Blood vs Water thought, how they’d do with their loved one, I’ll bring it up. I will be ranking the groups on their likeliest boot orders, with a bit of wiggle-room, because after a certain point, that stops being super meaningful. I should have just done a Brant-Steele, I wouldn’t have to organize that.

Away we go under the cut!

...Survivor? That’s still on?

Let me give anyone unfamiliar with a 22-year old show a quick rundown: Game starts with everyone divided into usually 2-3 tribes of 6-10 people each. At this phase, immunity from tribal council earned in challenges is tribal, and the losing tribe goes to tribal council and they vote someone out. The tribes might swap players or change considerations, Survivor hates consistent formatting; somewhere in the 13-10-ish range, the tribes merge and immunity from the vote at tribal council becomes individual. People voted out join the Jury, who watch tribal council; at the end, the final 3 face the jury for Q&A or speeches, and the jury votes for the winner. You can get 1-use immunity from a vote by finding a hidden immunity idol. I am treating Final 4 as a point where no one meaningfully controls who goes home, because the current mechanic kind of works that way. I hate it, and am ignoring its existence.

Now, please note that Survivor is a very, very swing-y game. The things that win you the game one season might not in another, so there’s only some cases where I’m very sure how they would do, and some cases where I think there’s a range -- if you’re in theory capable of making it to the final 7 or so, and capable of doing it without screwing yourself out of victory, there might be a universe where you can win... or you could just miss your shot, who knows.

The Total Disasters (Harrowhark Nonagesimus, Silas, Judith, Mercymorn, Honesty, Crux, probably Pash, maybe Ortus  but maybe not)

Look, some people are not destined to win Survivor. That’s most people, honestly. But some people are very, very clearly destined to be voted out immediately. These are people who cannot disguise any part of themselves to get along, who cannot chill, who need to have things their way or the highway, who eschew social bonds in favor of their own machinations and standards. Survivor is a game of connection, and it’s a game of connecting to people who are nothing like you. You can see why everyone on this listing might be total, unmitigated disasters. 

Judith is the most likely person in the universe to force the entire tribe to just sit there in the shelter, we have no need for duplicity or sneaking off for private strategy talks, we will just eliminate the weakest link, It is very straightforward! No one likes that. It never goes well. 

Harrow and Honesty are both very likely to get in trouble for immediately scouting for idols -- and not being subtle enough about it. Harrow is at least reasonably likely to find one, though.  Honesty probably just applied when he heard about the time a cellophane-wrapped block of cocaine washed up on the beach during filming. It could happen again, on a different beach. Maybe production won’t take this one away. It could happen! Silas is most likely to interpret the immunity idol as a form of idolatry and be pissed about it. Both of these stories actually happened, though one never made it to the show.  (Also, no one would want to see Silas after he’s gotten dirty. It’d just be sad.)

For some reason, undefinable for me, Mercymorn feels like she’d last a round or two, she just has big “third boot” vibes. I think she can maybe be functional enough in her hate to stick around. Ortus can stay out of this group if he does not quote too much poetry, and is not too big a downer. Pash can if she does not get into too many fights.

Precious Cinnamon Role Too Good for this Game, Too Pure (Nona)

Nona lives in her own category. She probably would be a form of disaster, but a very different one.  Nona’s social skills honestly would preserve her from Harrow’s fate of immediate vote-out. That said, her inability to lie and her general softness would combine to make her a major problem as an ally: you could not tell her anything. She would be very uncomfortable about votes. I think she probably would not get very deep in before her unease at voting people out would make her too unreliable an ally to keep. I’m picturing Marquesas’ Gabriel Cade as I say this, and that was pre-merge. Cinnamon roll too good for this game, too pure.

On the other hand... I feel like there is an incredibly unlikely chance, if the stars align, that Nona could win. It would be a disaster season -- and probably very funny. This would require everyone else to be missing at least one of the following Survivor skills: Surviving to the End, Being Likeable, Removing Threats. Nona would have to be the only person whose two remaining skills are Being Likeable and Surviving to the End. If that happens, maybe everyone else would all self-destruct on each other while Nona has a fun adventure with all the blase innocence of a Cartoon Baby in a Cartoon Construction Site, and people like her more than the other members of the Final 3. This has happened before, so let’s call this Fabio upside.

Sit-Out Bench Gracers (Cytherea the First, Dulcinea Septimus)

These two have more or less identical early games, and only slight divergences in the late game. In the early game, they’re massively endangered due to, you know, being  dying. Their hopes are twofold: #1, That the rest of their tribe can pull their weight, and they can be queen of the Sit-Out Bench; #2, that their social games are enough to protect them on likeability and they can shift the targets over. If that happens -- if they make it through the early game -- then they have a good shot at a deep run. They’re both likeable and cut-throat, a good combo... But then, do you want to go up against the inspirationally dying girl? Do you? You don’t, right? You cut that. I think Cytherea has a better survival rating than Dulcie, because being underestimated is Cytherea’s biggest skill, I think.

But let’s say they make it to the end-game: then, Cytherea’s ability to be under-estimated becomes a detriment. You have to be able to sell your game. You have to be able to sell your game and be respected for it, and the person who gets in close with personal reliance and deep intimacy, and then slits your throat callously? The jury tends not to like that. That tends to piss them off. In that regard, Dulcie, who’s just more edgy and less likely to play it personal, has a better rate of winning. But these differences would play out only in the rather unlikely endgame. I’d rather see Dulcie, though; she’d give an amazing confessional. I get big Courtney Yates energy from her, a tiny skinny girl, 0 physical presence, but hell of a sass on her. (She’d probably be less mean than Courtney, but I’m just saying.)

Smart Mom and Mom-Adjacent People (Abigail Pent, Juno Zeta, Commander We Suffer, The Angel)

So, there’s some good long-term potential, very little win chance, and very, very good Early Boot chances here. This is where Mercymorn would fit if Mercymorn were capable of Chilling. Let’s get to explaining that mess of a set-up. There are two driving factors: We’re dealing primarily in this group with “older” (Survivor “old” runs from early 30s to anything else; the show skews young, on average) women or women-adjacent people who are very smart and not capable of disguising it. On average, they’re not very physically tough, which becomes a problem in the early game -- they just might not be enough in challenges early on. On the second level, being undisguisably smart and no-bullshit can become...A little bit threatening. A lot of smart older ladies smell the rats early -- and the rats freak out and take them out. Which is more or less what happened to Abigail Pent in canon, so that seems a likely fate for her in Survivor.

But lately, that type has done a lot better, which is fun and exciting, so let’s talk about the final danger: If they last to the end, people might not like it when “Mom” betrays them. They very well might undervalue her strategic chops if she stays in deep. Even if they did not come here to be “Mom,” they don’t want it, stop that. But how you are perceived in Survivor is more relevant to how the game plays out than who you are or what you do. Survivor is not a fair game, and the double wombo-combo of agism and sexism is ruthless. But man, when this type does really well, they are a delight: they can be chaotic, ruthless, canny, and just really gratifying to watch. We Suffer probably does the best on the grounds of not being a necromancer, and therefore, being physically the toughest -- she has the most Chaos Kass or Chrissy upside (both of whom were delightful, think that this trend is BULLHONKEY, and nevertheless failed to escape it.)

Slow Down, You Crazy Child (Isaac Tetteres)

Isaac is a funny one. He’s pretty OK, but I think the odds of him melting down in a paranoid and self-destructive spiral are very high. This could begin at any time, but ultimately means that when Isaac spots a big threat, or starts to feel like someone is coming for him, he will come at them so hard that it destroys anything he’s built. Which is a shame: he could build stuff. Observation is a valuable Survivor skill, and I think he’s not actively repellant, so he’d probably make some decent alliances early on. But if you act like everyone is out to get you, you’ll make people out to get to. And if you show your chops too early, you might just take out your target...And then get taken out yourself. This quality is one that makes him one of the types of players Nona needs a whole season of to win: he’d be one of that season’s better players, too. It’s just that the best that sort of disaster comedy season has is juuuust sharp enough to cut themselves.

There’s some sort of connecting thread between himself, Augustine, Naberius, and Ianthe, but their over-all outcomes become so different that it becomes hard to lump them together. But if I did, that type would be: Too Schemey. How good they are at the socializing, how likeable they can be, how concealing of their cunning, determines their fate.

The Meatshields (Gideon Nav, G1deon, Marta, Pro, Colum, Aiglamine if she’s not too old for it, Jeannemarie if she doesn’t get into too many fights, Ortus if he can get his act together.)

This is, of course, an enormous group. The basic thing prognosis is this: If you are physically strong, you will be valued in the early game, and viewed as possibly threatening as a challenge threat in the middle of the game around the top of the merge. Even though, basically, if what you’re primarily delivering on is raw strength, the challenges really stop being geared that way. Survivor individual challenges are a lot more endurance, balance, and puzzle-based. People will still target those they perceive as threatening...And most of the people in this group do not have the ability to avoid that, so they’d probably all go in the early to mid merge. This bundle are not strategically very dynamic, though some of them -- Gideon, I mean Gideon -- are at least socially engaging. But the rest of them, except Jeanne, really wish this was about surviving, and not about people. It’s not, though!

Gideon has the upside of being very likeable, but you have to be way more clued-in, and willing to use those clues, to fare really well. But she gives a FANTASTIC confessional, which makes her a delight to have. She’d get asked back, but Survivor still resents you skipping Leg Day. Her namesake, not so much -- but if Gideon Nav improbably makes it to the end, she could win. Her namesake, though...  if he’s lucky, someone picks him up as a loyal #2, and he gets voted out to weaken them or dragged to the end as a dead fish, setting his leader up for an easy win. 0% chance of winning. The rest would be loyal enough to be good allies, except Jeanne-Marie, who might be loyal, but could be a bit too much of a firecracker (though that makes her a good person to take to the end) ...But they’re all too honorable to wriggle out of trouble, and not strategic enough to take out bigger threats, so win odds are low.

The Godfathers (Commander Wake, Hot Sauce)

I think that they both operate on Having a Gang. If they have a Gang that they can be absolute ruler of -- and, given people, they will seek to become absolute ruler of -- and can dominate its comings and goings, it will become a thing of iron, and if it has the numerical superiority, they will march the Gang to the End and crush the other alliance/tribe/whatever. What if Boston Rob really, really hated necromancers? What if Boston Rob were a 14-year old girl?

Forced into a situation where her numbers are inferior or her tribemates resent the idea of being controlled, Wake has far and away the better odds compared to Hot Sauce, but she’s still more likely to go scorched earth and hopes to ride the chaos. Which...rarely works, honestly. I think Hot Sauce would have a harder time, being younger and all. They both have an incredible charisma and force of will which will hopefully get them their Gang, but Wake’s edges are harsher, while Hot Sauce is more withdrawn. Both are under considerable threat, playstyle-wise, of the whole premise of The Gang just not working with the cast around them. Like, most people don’t really like the idea that they are not allowed to have independent strategies in a strategy game. Their approach is more or less a high-risk, high-reward one. It fails at inflection points: the start of the game, the swaps, the merges, where they’re capable of being outnumbered or outgunned or overthrown. Wake probably has a better sense of who to take to the End Game than Hot Sauce, but that’s down to not being 14.

The Dads (Magnus Quinn, John Gaius)

These two technically have very different fates, but I thought their superficial approach would be alike enough. Both are reasonably physically competent mature men who are approachable, sociable, and not obvious about taking charge. They’re charming, reliable, and competent without being overwhelmingly so, which gives them good odds. But Magnus isn’t cutthroat, isn’t deceptive. This makes me think he’d go through the tribal stage, and he’d do well -- but when the time comes for his alliance to cannibalize itself, he won’t be long left, so he’s in The Zone, but loosely, 12-5 or so. Magnus is a great guy to have in your alliance, though, and a really great guy to have in your cast. He’d get an invite back and he’d do exactly the same, but we were expecting him to be delightful, not successful. He probably makes the DVD cover, so good for him!

John is deceptive, and he’s never as sentimental as he looks. His best-case scenario is that he activates his manipulation skills, plays innocent, finds someone worse to stand beside, and he is the coolest man on the ice. His worst-case scenario is that he makes a plan, over-reaches, and bungles it, perhaps melting down in a “who voted for me???!!” paranoid spiral, and does not understand why people do not want him to win. I’m not sure which I find more likely, but either could happen, and at just about any time. Winning is possible for John Gaius, unfortunately. 

The Grand Vizier Probably Eats Brunch (Augustine the First)

I think Augustine maybe could win. I think it’s not a sure bet, but sometimes, you just have to be just charming enough, just good enough at pretending you care, just clever enough, without being any of those things too much. I think Augustine is good enough at playing second fiddle who turns around and tries to murder you that it will serve him well. That’s a winning role in Survivor. I could also see him on the losing side of the post-merge dynamics -- in which case, he’d go somewhere in the 10-7 zone, but outside of that scenario, I think you can pencil Augustine in for any point between Final 8 and Victory, Inclusive. 

Too Dangerous To Live (Coronabeth Tridentarius, Palamedes Sextus, Camilla Hect)

All of these are people who I think could do very well at Survivor, except for the part where there is really no disguising how well they could do at Survivor. They will probably be valued members of their tribes and alliances, in the hub of things, making moves and doing great! Until everyone looks towards the end-game, and what do they see? This is the longest write-up, because each of them is a different picture of a great Survivor player in their field.

They see that Palamedes is crazy smart and has about 35 million scenarios for the endgame planned out. He can probably solve any puzzle put in front of him in, like, 3 seconds. He’s quite likeable most of the time, a good dude, and undeniably respectable as a strategic force in the game. He’d murder a final tribal speech.  He runs the slight risk of being the sort of high-strung nerd who goes home early, but I think he can avoid it. He’s less likely to avoid being a high-strung nerd who gets voted out late.  He’s a season’s fallen angel, the person who played brilliantly but fell short. Unless a miracle happened, but I think he’s in the Christian Hubicki slot; everyone’s gonna love this nerd, which is part of his problem. Some of the fandom will absolutely love him. They will be right, and not joyless reddit husks.  

They see that Camilla is, for all she’s a little quiet and anti-social, a formidable challenge beast. She can do everything a Survivor individual challenge is likely to expect of you: she could throw beanbags at things, she could walk on balance-beams, she could endure in weird postures, she can solve a puzzle at the end. And she’s got a very strong strategic sense and understanding of the game rules, fully capable of recognizing who the threats are and who’s working against her and so on. She can find idols like she’s pulling them out of a pocket. I think she’d be the worst of this bunch at selling her game at the end, and the worst at convincing people to not target her now, but there’s a chance it works for itself.

They’d see Coronabeth. Who is Coronabeth, and is almost, very nearly, the perfect Survivor player: endlessly charming, endlessly charming, percieved as fantastic by all who survey her. Every move gets credited to her, even the ones she had nothing to do with. But she probably has a lot to do with a lot of them, because she is also rather cunning in the way a social-strategy game like Survivor is concerned with. And she is physically capable enough to win some immunities. Coronabeth could win Survivor by just standing there.

And the entire rest of the cast would go, “Huh, that’s a problem for me, because I would like to win Survivor.  That is what Survivor is about, winning Survivor. And they could definitely stop literally all of us from winning Survivor.” And then the threat singularity would begin, and everyone’s mission would be to Get Out The Biggest Threat. Now, any of these people could go a few rounds on immunities or idols or stupid tribemates -- Corona gets the most out of stupid tribemates and the least out of idols because she’s less good at those -- but it’d be risky. They’d be sprinting through fire, scrambling from tribal council to tribal council like they’re walking on a tight-rope. Which makes a great show for the jury, which makes them more likely to win, which makes them more threatening, lather, rinse, repeat. The luck is, more likely than not, going to run out at some point. It will most likely run out somewhere between the final 7 and the Final 4, with 5 as a very likely point: last call before it’s too late to stop them, oh god, somebody, please stop them!

Funnily enough, I think a Blood Vs Water with Palamedes and Camilla dampens both of their chances, because they can’t protect them both. A Blood vs Water with a Redemption Island twist, where someone who can do well at challenges can come back, though... Then he and Camilla would absolutely wreck shop if she gets voted out early, hiding his threat level a bit, and then she wins her way back at the final hour, and then they are an Unstoppable Survivor Machine. Let’s call this the Paul Scenario.

Almost Perfect, Except For the Glaring Part Where She’s Ianthe (Ianthe Tridentarius)

Ianthe is almost a great Survivor player, if only she weren’t...Ianthe about it. She seems to be aware enough that you have to charm people to at least make an attempt. And she’s clever and cutthroat. But...Would it be enough to overcome... Ianthe? And, if so, then what? Could someone willingly vote for Ianthe to win a million dollars? Could someone Ianthe has backstabbed turn around and applaud her? I think Ianthe would gloat too much, honestly, and that would end up making people turn away from respecting her game. She is her own worst enemy. I think she makes it pretty far, though -- and either gets taken out for being too schemey, or she stays and is a 0 vote finalist... But maybe, just maybe, she’d have a shot.

Here is what her shot looks like: She needs a Coronabeth. She needs someone who is attention-drawing that she can pair up with and hide her threat level behind. Unlike actually playing with Coronabeth, though, she’d need to get that person to about the 5-6 remaining point and then take her out... after lining up a collection of saps who absolutely could not get more than a few anti-Ianthe votes, and those guys take her to the final 3. Like, say, Babs. Everyone hates voting for Ianthe, but they just can’t vote for those other guys, because in some way, they are worse. That’s what an Ianthe win looks like. Missing any of those elements means that Ianthe probably falls just short of a win.

Mr 0 Votes (Naberius Tern)

Oh, hey. It’s the guy Ianthe needs to take to the end. He is his own special sort of disaster: he’s the perfect goat, his own worst enemy. No one’s going to vote for Naberius to win. In general, he strikes me as the exact sort of player that could lead to a Nona win if there were enough of him in a season: he’s smart enough to know how to strategize, but not so smart and not so charming that he wouldn’t overplay, and not nearly subtle enough. He thinks he’s a strategic mastermind, he probably has a confessional or three about how he’s the one controlling this game. He isn’t. He could really go at any point in the game, honestly. If he goes early, it’s because he’s a slimy, whiny twerp who overplayed his hand and overestimated himself; if he goes at top of the merge, it’s because he’s a big physical threat. After that, though... He probably doesn’t go home in the 8-4 zone, not if anyone can help it. He’s the perfect losing finalist,  you want to take him to the end no matter who you are. Unless he’s not your sacrificial goat, or unless there’s no better targets vulnerable. Then he goes. No one’s sad about it.

THE WINNER, GENTLEFOLK! (Pyrrha Dve) 

Bow down before your new Survivor God. Pyrrha is really, really, really good at Survivor. She is probably the single best Survivor player of the cast, prove me wrong. A huge part of that is that she’s capable of lying low, in addition to being charming, a great liar, cut-throat, cunning, and physically capable. I think she is capable of taking a season of Survivor and ruling it in a way which is so low-key and so complete that she makes a really boring Survivor season, because she’d crush all the life out of it. They might want to take her out every week, but they can’t -- but next week! But no, not this week, either. And so on. Pyrrha’s said all these things, but really, she’s in with them, right? They need her. They can’t get rid of her now. And the chance slips away... Things could break badly for her, but she would need some bad luck to not charm her way, subtle and powerful, to the win.

#The Locked Tomb #TLT #Survivor #Stacking Obsessions #I'm not listing the entire cast in tags #I'm not a monster #Nona the Ninth Spoilers #I am in delight imagining the clown-car pile-up scenario required for a Nona win. It'd be hilarious. #I am not going to call Ianthe Russell Hantz but I thought about it #But I didn't want to be so insulting to Ianthe. #Meta #TLT Meta #The Mortifying Ordeal of Posting Your Dumb Crossover Concepts #Courtney Yates rather did look like a malign fairy #Camilla Hect on Redemption Island would be a delightful terrifying experience #Just looming in the background. #People getting on the DVD cover almost regardless of placement: Gideon/Magnus/Pyrrha/Anyone Too Dangerous To Live #People getting on the DVD cover if they do REMOTELY well: Ianthe/Dulcinea/John/Augustine/Any Smart Mom-Types/Nona/Any Godfather Type #Babs might get on the cover only as a losing finalist but only MIGHT. G1deon would not get one even as a losing finalist. #Harrow would at least like the food! #The None or the Plain White Rice Boiled in Water