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Fantasy draft philosophy to avoid RB and WR busts tied to bad QB play

The idea of avoiding players on teams with bad quarterbacks is pretty obvious but not something I thought was worthy of a rule until trying to assess the odds of a resurgence for two previously productive players.

I found that having a quarterback as bad as Brock Osweiler made any chance that DeAndre Hopkins or Lamar Miller would bounce back practically hopeless — a 25% chance for Miller to be fantasy relevant and about a 0% chance for Hopkins.

I had no shares of Hopkins and Miller because even though Osweiler uncertainty was built into their average draft position, theoretically, it just never occurred to me to take them anywhere. I practically red-lined them. But what if I really red-lined them? What if instead of subscribing to the zeroRB philosophy (where you don’t draft a running back with a premium pick), you substitute zeroBadQB?

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All this means is that you don’t take any players on teams that are led by a quarterback who you expect to be bad. And I don’t mean bad in a relative sense like we sometimes get from Eli Manning and Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill. I mean straight up bad.

Now everyone who hears this theory says, “Of course I try to do this. Go to where the points are.” But I’m not talking about trying; I’m talking about doing. Just keep drafting players on teams with QBs who are okay or better and avoid the ones who play with QBs who are probably bad to terrible. Please note that this is not merely a strategy for drafting wide receivers but applies equally to running backs (and obviously tight ends) too. The result: you forget about a 30% of the player pool through at least five rounds and hopefully for much longer.

The best support for the zeroBadQB method happens to involve wide receivers and is provided by Jacob Rickrode (@clutchfantasy) via Rotoviz (subscription required).

“When projecting Top 24 (wide receivers) history has shown an average of 12 NFL teams will not have one. The Nos. 13-24 WRs since 2011 have averaged 125 targets on the season.”

Yes, those are most likely to be the receivers on the teams with the bad QBs. If you play with one, you can’t be expected to crack the top 24 in the end-of-the-season rankings. So at a minimum don’t rank one of these wide receivers in the top 24 at the position. And furthermore, we see that the target volume that we generally feature prominently in our rankings is overrated; if the wide receiver has a good quarterback, each target is worth more (and vice versa). So 125 targets from Drew Brees is worth at least 150 from, say, Blake Bortles or Carson Wentz. Better efficiency costs you volume, but that doesn’t mean it costs you fantasy points.

So now we have to decide which teams have quarterbacks that are so likely to be bad that we have to avoid all their players. Again, these players generally have low floors and low ceilings, so who needs them?

You can calibrate this however strictly you want. The quarterback and teams that are to be avoided on my cheat sheet are:

Jared Goff (Rams) DeShaun Watson/Tom Savage (Texans) Trevor Siemian (Broncos) Josh McCown (Jets) Cody Kessler (Browns) Mike Glennon/Mitchell Trubisky (Bears) Brian Hoyer (49ers) Blake Bortles (Jaguars) Carson Wentz (Eagles)

You can get into a game where you say, “If Bortles, why not Eli Manning.” But I have a hard line. And Manning has consistently supported elite performers. Bortles did in 2015, it’s fair to say. But I think he’s terrible and can’t stand the idea of having to watch him try to support my players. That’s a personal decision though. And maybe you like most Eagles fans think Wentz all evidence to the contrary is the man instead of Mark Sanchez 2.0. You have to work this out. The toughest calls for me on this list are Kessler and Siemian. I actually think Kessler is good, but the Browns don’t seem to agree and he’s a big injury risk regardless. So no Isaiah Crowell. But I’ll catch Kenny Britt (who has proven he can rise above terrible QB play) at a practically free price, currently going in the 120s.

Guys on my dead list in the crucial first five rounds due to zeroBadQB according to current ADP are Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Hopkins, Miller, Allen Robinson, Demaryius Thomas (this one hurts but as great as he is, five TDs last year), Crowell, Alshon Jeffery, Carlos Hyde and C.J. Anderson. Only 11 players through 60 picks. So we’re sort of doing this anyway. But my advice is to go all in on keeping these guys off your roster.

#_author:Michael Salfino #_category:yct:001000854 #_lmsid:a077000000CFoGyAAL #_uuid:aa8d7a7a-e59e-32cb-97e4-9863e0ca9f6d #_revsp:54edcaf7-cdbb-43d7-a41b-bffdcc37fb56

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My Yahoo Fantasy Football story: Tell us about your league

The Yahoo Fantasy Football 2017 season is right around the corner, and this year we want to meet the fantasy players who help make our game possible. Share your league’s story below and we might feature you in our upcoming series. And don’t forget to sign up for Yahoo Fantasy Football if you haven’t already!

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One of the more powerful stories we have come across is a group of Iraq War veterans whose league has held together through battle, tragedy and distance.

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Fantasy hitters worth picking up: Keon Broxton is binging

You’re a fantasy owner in need of hitting stats, and our analysts are here to help. Let’s begin with a review of players who can provide a power boost.

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Q. Here’s a partial list of widely available players who’ve each hit five or more homers over the past two weeks:  Matt Adams, Mike Zunino, Matt Davidson, Keon Broxton, Ian Happ and Yangervis Solarte. From that list, who are you most interested in adding for the remainder of the season?

Andy Behrens: I’m on the record as a big fan of Adams and Happ, but, for me, the answer here has to be KEON BROXTON. As of this writing, he’s one of only seven players in MLB who’s hit at least 10 homers and swiped 10 bags. Four of the seven were consensus first-round fantasy picks (Trout, Goldy, Betts, Altuve). Somehow, Broxton is only owned in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues. Let’s correct that problem, people. 

Scott Pianowski: MATT ADAMS is hard to deny, given the binge he’s been on since joining Atlanta (12 homers in 31 games, .661 slugging, 156 OPS+). Eventually Adams will get shifted or traded; I don’t buy Freddie Freeman shifting to third. Solarte was turning into a fun story until he injured his oblique. I love his position flexibility and on-base skills. 

Dalton Del Don: MATT ADAMS. There’s little doubt he’s been playing over his head, but Adams did hit 16 homers in fewer than 300 at bats last season. He’s batting .314/.365/.569 against right-handers this year, and he’s locked into the middle of Atlanta’s lineup now that Freddie Freeman is moving to third base once he returns from the disabled list. 

[Pitchers worth considering on the waiver wire]

Q. Give us a corner-infielder, available in shallow fantasy formats (10-12 teams), who deserves more attention?

Andy: OK, here’s where I give a nod to MATT DAVIDSON. He’s not going hit for average, in all likelihood, but he’s already up to 16 home runs, plus he does his hitting in a favorable home environment. 

Scott: I’ll sign off on Davidson, too; I realize it’s a season where everyone reaches the seats, but 21 percent looks awfully light. And what’s it going to take to fix the TREY MANCINI ownership tag? He fits in well with Baltimore’s softball team of DH types; .337-15-5-15 over the last month, and he doesn’t run, either. If you’re looking for the center cut of Boom Boom ownership, check him out against righties (.342/.392/.624) and at home (.337/.378/.615).

Q: Please offer up a corner who’s available in deeper, larger leagues.

Dalton: LUCAS DUDA. The batting average isn’t great, but he’s knocked out 12 home runs over just 165 at bats. Rarely will you find someone with an .892 OPS owned in just 12 percent of leagues.

Scott: Obviously the four-homer game was a monumental fluke, but SCOOTER GENNETT is viable in a deeper format. He holds three positions of eligibility (2B, 3B, OF), his playing time is safe with Zack Cozart hurt, and he’s generally slotted No. 2, right in front of Joey Votto. A .284 average moves the needle in today’s game, and Gennett has 23 homers over his last 653 at-bats.

Q: Kyle Schwarber was sent to Triple-A, which made at least one Yahoo expert cry real tears. It’s been a rough year for fantasy catchers generally, so give us a widely available backstop who’s worth a long look. 

Dalton: I gave poor Andy a hard enough time about Schwarber’s demotion during our recent podcast, so I won’t pile on here. Seriously, what a down year for catchers. As for a possible replacement, give me AUSTIN HEDGES (his recent injury isn’t supposedly serious). He’s on pace to finish with 24 homers with 76 RBI and is available in 22 percent of leagues.

Andy: I am shattered by the Schwarber demotion. Broken. Weeping. It gave me no pleasure to add TYLER FLOWERS as a replacement across my fantasy portfolio, but that’s what I’ve generally done. We knew Flowers had legit power entering the season. So far this year, there’s far less swing-and-miss in his game, and he’s delivered a career-best line-drive rate (25 percent). 

#_author:Andy Behrens #_category:yct:001000854 #_lmsid:a077000000CFoGyAAL #_uuid:fc7d722a-7179-360b-ac42-794b29254b6a #Fantasy Baseball #_revsp:54edcaf7-cdbb-43d7-a41b-bffdcc37fb56

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Closing Time: What's a Mike Trout owner to do?

Closing Time is not designed to be an injury-focused blog, but we go where the stories go. And when the best baseball player in the world gets injured, it’s a forced lede for us. Mike Trout owners, we feel your pain.

As you likely saw over the weekend, Trout jammed his thumb on a head-first slide Sunday at Miami. Monday, the other shoe dropped — he has a torn ulnar collateral ligament, needs surgery, and will be out 6-8 weeks.

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Even in an injury-ravaged season like 2017, fantasy owners have every reason to feel blindsided. Durability has been a key part of Trout’s game through the years. He’s averaged 158 games a year over the last four seasons, never needed a DL stint before now. Trout’s built like a tank, well-equipped to handle the wear-and-tear of the grind. Sunday’s injury tells you more about the foolishness of head-first sliding than anything else.

Trout was the consensus No. 1 pick in the Yahoo game this year, and to this point he’s still graded as the No. 1 stat-grabber: .337-36-16-36-10. That’s something that rarely ever happens. When you make that first pick, you’re merely hoping for a great season, a cornerstone — expecting the player to actually outscore everyone else is an unrealistic ask.

So what’s a Trout owner to do? Play the position. Evaluate your team, your short-term and long-term goals. Calibrate the league context. In other words, do the things we already do on a daily fantasy basis.

The first matter of business is picking up an outfielder. Obviously you’re not going to find some magical replacement, but depending on your league size, maybe you can get some of those numbers back. Here’s a shopping list:

— Very Shallow Leagues: Dexter Fowler (55 percent) is back at the top of what still could be a fun St. Louis lineup . . . Aaron Hicks (54 percent) has category juice, a discerning eye, a prospect pedigree, and is needed to play while Jacoby Ellsbury heals . . . Brandon Drury (45 percent) can help in four categories, enjoys a deep lineup and fun park, covers three positions . . . Hernan Perez (43 percent) hasn’t run like last year, but he plays most of the time and covers four spots . . . The Dodgers are using Chris Taylor (41 percent) more often than not, and he’s off to a tidy .312-20-6-19-1 start . . . Josh Bell (40 percent) took a step back in May, but his power and patience still have me intrigued.

— In Medium Leagues: Any piece of the Houston offense looks fun to me, including Carlos Beltran (39 percent) . . . Melky Cabrera (36 percent) has started to hit; he posted a .268-17-5-23 line in May . . . Cameron Maybin (35 percent) is running wild, though he’ll miss Trout’s presence in the lineup . . . Hunter Renfroe (29 percent) quietly posted an .895 OPS in May, and he’s hit five home runs in each of the first two months . . . We promoted Jayson Werth (29 percent) in the Yahoo collaborative every week, and yet he goes largely unclaimed. Deep lineup, variety of skills . . . Max Kepler (28 percent) can be especially fun if you just take the platoon-advantage work: .282/.371/.500, five homers, three steals.

— In Deeper Leagues: Kevin Kiermaier (18 percent) has started to hit, and stole five bases in May . . . Tommy Pham (seven percent) has forced his way into the Cardinals lineup, with a nice run of 69 at-bats (.333-13-5-14-4). Randal Grichuk isn’t in the way for now, sent to Triple-A . . . Reflectively we want to run from the Royals offense, but note Whit Merrifield (five percent) perked up in May (.308-14-5-10-4) . . . Matt Adams (nine percent) is the Braves first baseman while Freddie Freeman rehabs. The Atlanta park looks like a favorable place to hit . . . Michael Taylor (four percent) worries us with contact issues, but so far so good (.274 average, some category juice).

No, there’s not a blossoming superstar in the mix. That’s not how these things work. You lose a Trout, you’ve going to feel it. At least take solace in the fact that your opponents are getting ripped by injuries, too.

Trout owners could also consider trading him, liquidating the asset. Sometimes this move is dismissed out of hand by fantasy pundits, which makes zero sense to me. Trout has name-brand recognition and a track record that sells itself. Shouldn’t you at least calibrate how your opponents feel about his comeback? Maybe someone in your league will carry more optimism than you will.

[Why do we call Lance McCuller’s a sell-high? Listen in]

Keep in mind, the Angels are a team miles away from contention. The club wants Trout to return quickly and all that, but it’s not like the urgency of a playoff race is driving the timetable. Trout still has his entire career to think about. And maybe it will take some time for him to get back up to full throttle.

Obviously this isn’t a “sell at any cost” recommendation. Just do what any reasonable and measured person does in these types of spots, consider every alternative. If I owned Trout anywhere — and because I didn’t do well in the draft lottery, I do not — I’d let my league mates know he was available. Heck, my entire roster is in play at any time, because having untouchables doesn’t make sense. You never know what type of heavy overpayment someone might be willing to assemble.

• I don’t know what Alex Avila is having for breakfast these days, but pour me a bowl of it, too.

You might remember Avila’s salad days — he was a star back in 2011, posting a .295-19-82 line. His game fell apart over the next few years, and he was backup for Detroit and Chicago in 2015 and 2016.

No idea where it came from, but every Alex Avila at-bat is a work of art. He’s a craftsman. Spitting on borderline pitches, using park.

— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) May 22, 2017

Avila returned to Detroit this year — swapping his old 13 for a new 31 — and initially he was just a backup catcher and infield fill-in. A familiar city to start his 30-something seasons. Alas, a hot start and some Tigers injuries elsewhere have pushed Avila into more playing time than expected, with juicy results: .323/.447/.591, six homers, 21 walks in 93 at-bats.

Avila’s batting eye isn’t a new thing — as Dave Cameron of Fangraphs pointed out, Avila’s plate discipline has been outstanding for several years. Avila’s ridiculous .453 BABIP sticks out, though he’s driving those results to some extent (28.8 percent line-drive rate and 57.4 percent hard-hit rate, both well above league average).

James McCann, Detroit’s regular starting catcher, is currently on the DL. It’s a hand-laceration injury, not something that should need an extended recovery. Nonetheless, Avila has turned into an auto-play for two-catcher formats, and I’m even rolling him out in a few leagues that require a single backstop. The at-bats have been that pretty, and the position has been a fantasy wasteland. Let’s take production where we see it, and when we can get it.

• If Trout was the injury of Monday, Hunter Strickland was the insult. San Francisco’s combustible reliever decided to throw a heater at Bryce Harper’s midsection, an obvious retaliation for a couple of moon-shot homers Harper cranked off Strickland in previous playoff meetings.

A gloriously-absurd brawl ensued.  Harper, for some reason, sucks at throwing his helmet. How come Buster Posey didn’t enter the mix? (Makes you wonder how Posey and Strickland get along these days.)

In honor of Bryce Harper’s helmet toss. 5 worst throws near mound pic.twitter.com/Ak7w1qz9jO

— Batting Stance Guy (@BattingStanceG) May 29, 2017

Harper is obviously headed for a suspension, it’s just a matter of when it falls, how many days it is, and how Harper decides to approach it. Strickland will be suspended too, not that fantasy owners need an answer for that.

#_author:Scott Pianowski #_category:yct:001000854 #_lmsid:a077000000CFoGyAAL #_uuid:e4d621fd-6008-3096-84b9-cca59af14f0a #_revsp:54edcaf7-cdbb-43d7-a41b-bffdcc37fb56

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Pitchers fantasy owners should buy or sell on trade market

Since Ks and BBs have stabilized for pitchers, let’s get a full accounting of the ones who are radically under- and over-performing their peripherals. This means that their ERAs are way out of whack given their ranking of (Ks-BBs) divided by innings pitched.

There of course is not guarantee that pitchers are going to continue to post similar K and BB rates going forward, though our Stat Stabilization Chart (courtesy of our friends at Fangraphs) says that is at least even money (and an even more likely as the season wears on). And we’re only picking the extreme outliers, meaning guys who are top 15 in Ks and BBs but way worse in ERA and vice versa.

We hear all the time how “sell high, buy low” is a myth. I vehemently disagree. You can definitely deal Dylan Bundy right now for Jeff Samardzija, for example. But there are dumb ways to try to do this. In other words, if you offer that straight up, your trading partner is likely going to see how you’re thinking. But if you get Samardzija for Bundy AND the better hitter for the worse hitter, you are masking your true intentions AND doubling your investment upside because you seem to be losing on the pitching side of that deal despite being at least even money to win it.

But I fear that trading is a lost art.

Note for the recommendations below that the league average is 0.54 Ks minus walks per inning. So basically if you pitch six innings and have less than three more Ks than walks, you’re pitching poorly.

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ERAs Should Be Way Better

Samardzija is fourth in the stat entering Tuesday with exactly one more K per inning than walks, yet his ERA of 5.26 is 80th among qualifying pitchers. I would bet on Samardzija being at least top 20 in ERA going forward while also being helpful in Ks. Samardzija is unowned in only 27% of leagues but should be easy to pick up in a trade in a manner like I stated above.

Jake Arrieta is not as good as he was but should not be nearly this bad. His 5.44 ERA is way inflated given his (Ks-BB)/IP is ranked 14th (0.806). If these aligned closely, as they tend to do, his ERA would be around 3.00 (the 14th ERA now is 2.60). Do not trade Arrieta because you are likely only locking in bad stats that should get much better (as long as the Ks and BBs remain the same or better).

Nate Karns is seemingly struggling with a non-helpful 4.46 ERA but is 11th in the stat. We don’t have a lot of data on Karns but he’s available right now in 73% of Yahoo leagues. He should be owned in all 12-team formats on the basis of 48 Ks in 40.1 innings alone.

John Lackey is seemingly heading for the exits in his career given a 4.29 ERA but he’s 12th in the statistic. You can’t leverage this easily however since he’s so highly owned. But he’s an inviting trade target. The same can be said for Rick Porcello (10th in the stat at 0.872) and Luis Severino (8th, 0.881), both owned in over 85% of leagues.

But if you want another easy pickup, look to Charlie Morton, who is 15th in the stat (0.794) despite ranking 50th in ERA (3.97). Morton is not owned in 53% of leagues.

ERAs Should Be Way Worse

Here’s where I get hate in the comments, but blame the model. Maybe these guys will defy gravity. But as my buddy Scott Pianowski says channeling Radiohead: Gravity always wins.

Ervin Santana is a joke right now, ranking second in ERA (1.50) while sitting 71st in the K and BB stat (0.370). Maybe he’s found the secret to pitching to contact but we say that about every pitcher who does and most of them end up on the side of the road with their ERAs in pieces. Santana is a top-20 most volatile pitcher in baseball history but more on that another day.

Gio Gonzalez isn’t even that extreme a ground-ball pitcher anymore. And he’s giving up homers at a high rate. So ranking 11th in ERA (2.47) while sitting 78th in the stat (0.314) make zero sense.

Derek Holland is 11th in ERA and 65th in the stat but owners are buying giving he’s 60% owned. I will bet a lot of money that Morton will out-earn Holland for the balance of this season.

Dylan Bundy was supposed to be a fireballing strikeout artist and his ERA suggests that he’s arrived (2.26). But he ranks 60th in the stat (0.464). Thus Bundy’s ERA is likely to be at best league average going forward while hurting you in Ks. Yes, he could develop an out-pitch but what’s he waiting for? His fastball velocity is also down.

Mike Leake is pitching to contact as always but has a 1.94 ERA despite ranking 57th in the stat. Leake and Bundy are owned in over 85% of leagues so if you have them make sure you trade them. I bet you can get Lackey or Samardzija for either one in the manner I advised earlier. But shoot for Arrieta first.

Finally, while we’re back to the hitters next week, be sure to read my Wall Street Journal piece on Freddie Freeman and the simple reason he’s so good: the vast majority of the pitches he takes are balls. The strikes, he swings at. I wish we had easily accessible data on this and am trying behind the scenes to make this happen. It’s very important for power hitters to not take more than 25% strikes when they choose not to swing and taking a much higher percentage of strikes than league average (about 30%) is a sign of passivity that typically leads to poor hitting outcomes.

#_author:Michael Salfino #_category:yct:001000854 #_lmsid:a077000000CFoGyAAL #_uuid:0133bd25-3121-3c72-a4f0-f0bc95b7da76 #_revsp:54edcaf7-cdbb-43d7-a41b-bffdcc37fb56

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Closing Time: Aaron Altherr in midst of fantasy breakout

The 40-percent ownership area for fantasy pickups is basically Last Call Saloon. Those players are long gone in the more competitive leagues. For a productive player to be standing in this corridor, we’re talking about leagues with low transaction limits, or very modest roster requirements.

Be that as it may, it’s last call on Philadelphia outfielder Aaron Altherr. And if you picked him up weeks ago, you may downshift to victory lap mode.

The Phillies added some ordinary outfield veterans over the winter, but the answer was in their own backyard the entire time. Altherr currently stands as the No. 14 outfielder in the Yahoo game, with a juicy .351-19-7-21-3 line. He ripped two homers in Wednesday’s victory over Seattle, giving him four in three days.

The 26-year-old Altherr cuts an imposing figure at the plate — 6-foot-5, 215 pounds. There’s a broad set of tools in the toolbox. I compared Altherr to Jayson Werth, a former Philly outfielder, in this space a week ago. The real Werth made the same comp a few days later.

It’s convenient to laugh off Spring Training as a meaningless exercise, but sometimes breakout players are morphing — and improving — before our eyes. Consider what Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said about Altherr in late March, as told to David Lauria of Fangraphs.

A guy who jumps out to me is Aaron Altherr. He’s adjusted his setup and his swing path. He’s gone from a long swing to a shorter swing, and he’s getting good results because of it. [Hitting coach] Matt Stairs changed him. You have to give Aaron credit, too. A lot of guys aren’t really receptive to making a change from how they’ve swung the bat their whole life. He was willing to do it, so I tip my hat to Aaron.

“The key is to go directly to the ball from your launch position. Instead of A to B to C, what you’re looking for is A to C. [Altherr] has his bat on his shoulder now. He had been starting with his hands up high, and it looked uncomfortable. I always felt his swing looked a little too long. He made the correction.

If you want Altherr’s breakout validated in the secondary numbers, you’ll have no trouble. He’s trimmed his strikeouts, nudged forward his walks. His hard-hit rate has spiked from 29.5 percent to 43.4 percent. He’s swinging at less pitches out of the strike zone.

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If you want help buying high, I can offer some ideas. I’d trade Jose Bautista for Altherr, zero hesitation. The Hunter Pence apologists should make this swap. Ben Zobrist might be starting to show his age, don’t you think? Yasiel Puig has slowed down significantly after a slow start. (If it’s pronunciation help you need: ALL-tair.)

Perhaps some of those trade ideas would be dismissed out of hand. You know your league members better than I do. But Altherr is less owned than everyone in the above paragraph, and it’s time to fix that for good. For once, it’s sunny in the Philadelphia outfield.

• We’ve seen plenty of long-forgotten veterans get back on course in 2017. The Yonder Alonso story is something. Ryan Zimmerman is the NL MVP to this point. Mark Reynolds is crushing in Colorado.

Dropping down a level from those guys, maybe Logan Morrison is another fantasy commodity, back from the dead. Perhaps he’ll turn into the poor-man’s Alonso.

Morrison made the majors at age 22, seen as a promising, pure hitter. He posted an impressive .283/.390/.447 slash in his first 62 games with the Marlins, and clocked 23 homers (in 123 games) the next year. Alas, Morrison took a step back over the next five years; a .239/.314/.398 line doesn’t play in mixed leagues. No one targeted him in March.

Morrison isn’t on a ballistic tear with Tampa this year, but a .250/.344/.528 line is respectable, especially in OBP leagues. He’s cranked nine home runs — four in the last week — and he’s locked in the cleanup spot. A nifty BB/K rate and an increase in fly balls are reasons to believe in this story, on some level.

If you’re a little thin at the corner, Morrison is owned in just 13 percent of Yahoo leagues. And give him a modest bump forward in OBP formats.

• With Zach Britton out indefinitely, the Orioles need some answers in the ninth inning. Maybe Brad Brach is that guy, and maybe he isn’t. Brach has four saves over his last nine appearances, but it’s been a white-knuckle ride: 9 IP, 13 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 2 HR. He had a messy blown save (and loss) Wednesday against the Nationals (small solace to the DC area, soul-crushed over the Capitals Game 7 no-show against the Penguins).

Darren O’Day was terrible to open the year, but he’s turned things around over his last 12 outings (2.31 ERA, 3 BB, 11 K). In leagues where you need to be an early speculator to possible save turnover, O’Day is worth investigating. He’s owned in just 11 percent of Yahoo leagues.

• For one night at least, the Marlins and the Rangers got it right. You want high-OBP hitters at the top of the order, and you want the OBP-drains at the bottom, but sometimes silly things (like short-term samples and age-old strategy considerations) rule the day.

Shin-Soo Choo is Texas’s best on-base man by far, and yet he’s only hit leadoff three times this year.  Contrast that to the 13 starts Choo’s logged in the bottom third of the order. But Choo might be in the leadoff spot for a while, after reaching base four times on Wednesday. He’s slashing .269/.383/.426 for the year. (Don’t get me started on Jeff Banister, International Man of Superstition. His favorite player tends to be any guy who played well yesterday.)

Dee Gordon usually bats first for Miami because he’s fast, not because he fits the job’s other responsibilities. Gordon dropped to ninth two games ago. Perhaps the move sparked him — Gordon had two hits, a walk, and two steals in Wednesday’s loss. He’s now up to 11 bags, and his OBP improved to .326.

If Gordon has to move down, the No. 9 slot is better than the No. 8 spot. You don’t want the pitcher in back of him, where occasional bunting will take away from Gordon’s stolen-base opportunities. I suspect Gordon is going to be back at leadoff soon enough, but at least Don Mattingly was thinking outside the box for a moment.

#_author:Scott Pianowski #_category:yct:001000854 #_lmsid:a077000000CFoGyAAL #_uuid:53dd628b-74ef-323c-96ba-e008af4b5c35 #_revsp:54edcaf7-cdbb-43d7-a41b-bffdcc37fb56

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Fantasy Baseball’s most radical movers in newly favored stat

Hit trajectory is the rage today with hitters like Yonder Alonso, Daniel Murphy and Ryan Zimmerman all recently seeming to remake their careers due to focus on hitting the ball in the air rather than on the ground.

While the season is still young, the sabermetricians say that it only takes about 80 balls in play for ground-ball and fly-ball rates to stabilize. We’re about there for hitters unless they have struck out an incredible amount. So let’s look at all these rates now for qualifying hitters, through Sunday, to see which have improved the most vs. last year in this seemingly concerted effort to change the plane of the swing in order to get better loft on the ball when hitting it squarely. And we’ll also see who is losing this battle as pitchers and teams are also aware that ground balls are far less threatening when it comes to altering the scoreboard and are presumably trying harder than ever to induce them.

I pulled only hitters whose rate of ground balls is at least 10 percentage points different year to year. What this means, given that stabilization of a statistic only says that it’s reasonably at least half skill, is that even if we cut the rate in half and attribute the rest to completely random factors, the result is still at least five percentage points of hit trajectory change (meaningful).

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So let’s look at Alonso, who has gone from a 44.6% ground-ball rate in 2016 to 26.5% this year. That’s the major reason his homer total of nine matches his career high. But let’s ballpark his rate going forward at half that difference — or 35.6%. That’s still a radical change so the bottom line with Alonso is that it’s likely he will continue to hit far more homers than we projected in March. I would bet on about 16 more for the balance of the season.

Some players have improved their rate of fly balls without boosting their homers. Others have seen dividends. The complete list of hitters at least 10 percentage points better at avoiding grounders this year vs. last year are, in addition to Alonso (the MLB leader): Jed Lowrie (13.6 points better), Zimmerman (12.2), Jay Bruce (12.2 from a previously extreme fly-ball level), Trevor Story (12.0 and also previously extreme), Joe Mauer (11.7), Orlando Arcia (11.4), Josh Reddick (11.4), Francisco Lindor (11.3), Scott Schebler (11.0), Jose Bautista (10.5 and previously extreme), Jose Ramirez (10.5) and Josh Harrison (10.4).

Lowrie has only two homers. But he hit 16 in 340 at bats in 2012, albeit in a better park (Houston). He otherwise has an OPS 27% better than the league average. If the power comes as this stat predicts and Lowrie reverts to career norms of HR/FB of 6.5-to-11%, he should hit 10-to-12 homers for the balance of the season and thus become playable in 12-team formats batting at the top of the A’s lineup.

Reddick has hit 32 homers in the past and is worth rostering in all formats if you believe in this stat. I’m not trying to hedge on that but we don’t have a lot of data on hit trajectory and power in this league-wide context of hitters trying to change it. Reddick also has an OPS 17% better than average through Sunday. And he’s 11% owned. I’ll bet on 20 homers the rest of the season.

Lindor’s power spike seems bettable. Ditto his teammate Ramirez. I’ve liked Schebler since March given how his park plays for lefty power, but the issue for him was hitting too many grounders, like worm-killer Christian Yelich (still up to his old antics). But now that this problem has been seemingly rectified in dramatic fashion, I love Schebler going forward as a legitimate source of 30-homer power.

Harrison is translating his fly balls into homers and it does not seem like a fluke. If you’re too late on Harrison (he’s 45% owned), just get Lowrie (4% owned but profiling the same and with more power historically).

Guys to worry about — meaning they’re doing the opposite of the current trend by hitting more ground balls: Alex Bregman (20 percentage point spike in ground-ball rate), Kevin Kiermaier (16.8), Alex Gordon (15.7), Trevor Plouffe (15.7), Travis Shaw (14.7), Brandon Belt (14.0), Robbie Grossman (13.5), Gregory Polanco (13.2), Freddie Freeman (12.5), Justin Upton (12.0), Xander Bogaerts (11.4), Jose Altuve (10.7), Yasmani Grandal (10.6), Brian McCann (10.6), Victor Martinez (10.5), Asdrubal Cabrera (10.2) and Charlie Blackmon (10.0).

There are some interesting counter examples of hitters smacking homers despite apparently going the wrong way on hit trajectory. So you can look at Freeman and Shaw and feel confident that if their HR/FB normalizes (career high 37.9% for Freeman and 28.0% for Shaw), they can maybe hit more fly balls in line with their historic rates. So I’m not selling either based on this. But the players above who are not hitting homers may struggle to do so all year unless their now stable rate of hitting ground balls proves against the odds to be a radical fluke.

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Fantasy Baseball draft kit: Cheat sheet to help you win a title

Our experts are here to help you win a Fantasy Baseball title in 2017. Check out what’s new on Yahoo for this season and then sign up to play. But before making your picks, we’ve rounded up all our advice in one place, so you can study for your draft and come out on top.

Note: This page will be updated as we continue to preview the upcoming season.

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Rankings Overall top 250 | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | C | OF | SP | RP Printable rankings: Positional cheat sheet Big Board: Top 50 assets heading into 2017 Mock Draft now: Get ready for the real thing

Draft strategy Sleepers to target | Four breakout candidates | Bust alert: Players to avoid National League fantasy season preview | American League predictions Nine bold fantasy predictions Who our experts are repeatedly drafting Players on rise after hot springs | Guys falling Most reliable options that get overlooked Inside one expert’s draft portfolio Podcast: Auction tips | Review of expert’s auction How much should spring training impact drafts? Podcast: Sleepers, MVPs and division winners Dream draft scenarios and expert tips Guys who need a fast start to season Players most likely to take a step back Guys Yahoo experts covet most in drafts All upside-team: Players who could deliver Old faces in new places with most appeal Three-round mock starts in controversial fashion Rookies with chances to have immediate impact Steals and reaches of experts’ draft | Podcast recap Auction strategy: Review of industry league Players to follow during World Baseball Classic Price check on AL players in early drafts | Price check on NL players

Hitters Biggest bargains bats heading into season Parks that help or hurt homers most Six cheap speed options Delino DeShields Jr. a lottery ticket worth buying Most overvalued hitters by position Debating which great shortstop to draft Position debate: Buster Posey or Gary Sanchez? Five infielders with injury questions | Schwarber among outfielders to monitor

Pitchers Arms you should avoid paying full price for in drafts Parks with most impact on pitching Relievers our experts are targeting | Non-closers worth taking How to draft closers | Bullpen Depth Chart Spin Doctors: Johnny Cueto or Stephen Strasburg? Case for taking Kershaw with the top overall pick in drafts Seven undervalued pitchers in drafts Five pitchers with injury questions

Video Analysis Sleepers: Guys to chase late in drafts Busts: Four players to avoid drafting Breakout Candidates: Players set to become studs Rookies: 2017 class lacks immediate impact

What to do with the 1st overall pick | 2nd pick | 3rd pick | 4th pick | 5th pick | 6th pick | 7th pick | 8th pick | 9th pick | 10th pick | 11th pick | 12th pick | 13th pick | 14th pick

AL East AL East preview podcast: Sleepers, busts and more Blue Jays: What’s the Encarnacion replacement plan? | Bautista being undervalued Orioles: Are you paying up for Kevin Gausman? Rays: Any late-round steals in Tampa Bay? Red Sox: What is Andrew Benintendi ready to do? Yankees: New York is a trick team to figure out

AL Central AL Central preview podcast: Sleepers, busts and more Indians: Just how good is Francisco Lindor? Royals: Danny Duffy ready to make leap Tigers: Which Justin Upton shows up this year? White Sox: What to expect from the kids and when will they arrive? Twins: Berrios has something to prove in WBC

AL West AL West preview podcast: Sleepers, busts and more Angels: Does lack of supporting cast hurt Mike Trout? A’s: Which young player is worth your pick? Astros: Time to buy in on Alex Bregman or pump the brakes? Mariners: Is Felix Hernandez in the beginning of a decline? Rangers: Is Elvis Andrus a sucker play as a mid-tier shortstop?

NL East NL East preview podcast: Sleepers, busts and more Braves: Dansby Swanson among MLB rookies to watch Marlins: Two of Miami’s top players could be fantasy busts Mets: Health tops list of questions for New York Nationals: Washington has star appeal but not all is certain Phillies: Will the baseball gods cut Nola a break?

NL Central NL Central preview podcast: Sleepers, busts and more Brewers: Will Villar be as good as last season? Cardinals: Does St. Louis have sneak name-brand appeal? Cubs: Plenty of impact options to pick from Pirates: Is Andrew McCutchen really the third-best outfielder in Pittsburgh? Reds: Peraza has become a player of interest

NL West NL West preview podcast: Sleepers, busts and more Diamondbacks: Can A.J. Pollock and Zack Greinke bounce back? Dodgers: Is there any Yasiel Puig intrigue left? Giants: San Francisco a better team in reality than fantasy Padres: Was Myers’ breakout for real? Rockies: Any reason to be leery of Charlie Blackmon?

Player Profile Videos

First Base: Eric Hosmer, Brandon Belt, Josh Bell, Tommy Joseph

Second Base: Rougned Odor, Dee Gordon, Matt Carpenter, Devon Travis, Hernan Perez, Didi Gregorius

Shortstop: Trevor Story, Elvis Andrus, Troy Tulowitzki, Brandon Crawford, Dansby Swanson, Freddy Galvis, Ketel Marte, J.P. Crawford

Third Base: Maikel Franco, Eugenio Suarez, Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, Ryon Healy, Yulieski Gurriel

Catcher: Welington Castillo, Tom Murphy, Stephen Vogt

Outfield: George Springer, Marcell Ozuna, Khris Davis, Domingo Santana, Shin-Soo Choo, David Peralta, Hunter Renfroe, Yasiel Puig, Tyler Naquin, Max Kepler, Ender Inciarte, Jay Bruce, Austin Meadows, Mitch Haniger, Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Reddick, Lorenzo Cain, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Holliday, Leonys Martin

Starting Pitcher: Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Felix Hernandez, Danny Salazar, Eduardo Rodriguez, Adam Conley, Matt Moore, Tanner Roark, Jon Gray, Dallas Keuchel, Jameson Taillon, Adam Wainwright, Ivan Nova, Junior Guerra, Joe Ross, Dan Straily, Gio Gonzalez, Jason Hammel, Chris Tillman, Alex Wood, Tyler Skaggs, Jordan Zimmermann, Alex Cobb, Cole Hamels

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Top Fantasy Basketball pickups for title push

As we near the end of the season, many teams are giving increased roles to young players widely available on the waiver wire.

Ownership and stats are accurate as of the end of Thursday’s games.

By Alex Rikleen Special to Yahoo Sports

Tyler Ulis, PG, Phoenix Suns, 36% owned Eric Bledsoe has been shut down for the season, which makes Ulis the starting Suns point guard for the rest of the way. His ownership rates are skyrocketing since the announcement – right now, you should open up a new tab, and go add Ulis, and then come back to reading the rest of this article.

The Suns’ rotation now features only two players older than 25-years-old, as they brazenly turn their attention towards the future and give up any remaining pretense of caring about their current record. In his first game as a starter, Ulis racked up 13 points, 13 assists, and two steals in 39 minutes. Since Ulis became a regular cog in the rotation (the third game after the All-Star break), he is averaging 15.2 points, 9.5 assists, and 1.9 steals per-36 minutes.

Next week’s schedule: at Mia, at Bkn, at Bos, at Cha

Ivica Zubac, C, Los Angeles Lakers, 35% Zubac’s ownership was also rising quickly – until he produced only two points and two rebounds in 11 minutes during what seemed to be a favorable matchup against the Rockets on Wednesday. Though it was a terrible fantasy performance, owners should ignore it.

Zubac started, but got into early foul trouble, impacting his play and his time on the floor. Coach Luke Walton’s comments after the game seemed to imply that he still wants Zubac to play with a starter’s workload, and that it was just the foul trouble that dictated Wednesday’s outcome. Walton said he plans to start Zubac for the rest of the season, and fellow center Timofey Mozgov has been shut down. In his two starts before Wednesday, he averaged 17.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks in 24.5 minutes. Though he only has two assists through his first three starts, he averages 1.4 per-36 minutes this season, which is not bad for a center.

Next week’s schedule: LAC, Min, Por

Willy Hernangomez, C, New York Knicks, 43% Hernangomez has been a roller-coaster, and the flips and turns have intensified since the All-Star break. As it stands, his value seems to hinge on Kristaps Porzingis’ (thigh) health. The Knicks have four days off after Thursday’s game, which Porzingis sat out. Porzingis said Thursday that he expected to play in the Knicks next game (Monday), but he’s been out or limited due to injury in five of the Knicks last 12 games.

If Porzingis is fully healthy, then Hernangomez’s value is limited, and Hernangomez can be left on waivers in most 10-team leagues. But when Porzingis is sidelined or limited, Hernangomez is a great add even in 8-team leagues. Hernangomez was limited by foul trouble Thursday, but in the other four of those games that Porzingis was out or limited, Hernangomez averaged 10.8 points, 15.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.0 steals in 31.3 minutes.

Next week’s schedule: at LAC, at Uta, at Por, at SA

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Malcolm Brogdon, PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks, 42% Brogdon’s value varies a lot based on his role. He has much more fantasy value as an off-the-bench facilitator than he does as a starter. In the former role, he is averaging 5.8 assists per game since the All-Star break; in the latter, he is averaging only 2.0 assists per game. Assists aren’t the only statistical difference between Starter Brogdon and Backup Brogdon, but it is the most important. He has played five games in each role since the break, with the following results:

As a starter – 28.6 minutes, 12.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 46.2% FG

Off the bench – 27.0 minutes, 13.8 points, 1.6 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 52.0% FG

The Bucks went 1-4 with Brogdon starting, and 3-2 with Brogdon off the bench. Coach Jason Kidd has fiddled with his rotation all season, but the recent results should give fantasy owners reason to believe that Brogdon will stay in his more productive bench role.

Next week’s schedule: at Por, at Sac, Atl, Chi

Richaun Holmes, PF/C, Philadelphia 76ers, 35% If you missed out on Zubac and Porzingis is healthy, Holmes is a decent consolation prize. His role has been very consistent since the All-Star break, only once seeing fewer than 21 minutes in 11 games. He is averaging 12.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 1.5 blocks in 23.5 minutes while shooting 62 percent from the field during that span.

This is the first time in the sophomore’s young career that he has had a stable role for this long of a stretch, and it has been good for his development. Importantly, his play is improving as he gets more familiar with his first stable role, and his numbers over the last five games are slightly improved over the first six.

Next week’s schedule: at Orl, at OKC, at Chi, at Ind

Jordan Crawford, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans, 30% In his first five NBA games since 2014, Crawford is averaging 14.2 points, 3.2 assists, and 2.8 threes in 23.4 minutes per game. He’s shooting 50.1 percent from the field, and 51.9 percent from behind the arc – and yes, those numbers are listed in the right order.

Despite being six games and five spots behind in the race for the final playoff spot (and with only 14 games remaining), the Pelicans still believe they have a chance. They’ll need Crawford’s ability to score and spread the floor if they are going to stay in the hunt – and their next eight games are all against Western Conference teams ahead of them in the standings.

His limited statistical profile means that he won’t be a good fit for every fantasy team, but he is an excellent source of scoring and threes without damaging a team in field goal percentage, which is a hard combination to find on the wire.

Next week’s schedule: Mem, at Hou, at Den

Joe Ingles, SG/SF, Utah Jazz, 8% Ingles is only a deep-league option at this point. He entered the starting lineup for Rodney Hood (knee) Thursday, and played 36 minutes. Over his last three games, Ingles is averaging 14.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 3.0 threes in 29.7 minutes. Hood has been dealing with knee problems all year, and is more important to the Jazz during the playoffs than during the regular season. Ingles has played at least 23 minutes in every game in March, in part to limit the load Hood has to bear.

Next week’s schedule: at Ind, NY, at LAC

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Fantasy Baseball’s most overvalued hitters by position

A few caveats about this all-overdrafted team. Remember, all Major League players are great at baseball. So please place this criticism in that context. And good fantasy players may choose to pay ADP for guys on this list for roster balance either at the time of the pick or anticipating that they’ll need, say, Jonathan Villar’s projected steals in their overall roster construction.

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I’m also refraining from analyzing players I’ve already addressed. For that and more, check my up-to-date 2017 draft prep archives.

C — J.T. Realmuto (ADP: 144): I get that bonus of the steals, which cracked double digits last year. But I’m not a fan of either betting on catcher steals or betting on 8-12 steals. Steals at that level are rarely evidence of any bettable skill. And it’s also unwise to bet on batting average such as Realmuto’s .303 last year when the well-hit rate is low.

According to big-league stat provider Inside Edge, his number, which includes Ks (it’s well-hit percentage of at-bats) was just .147 last year (MLB average was .138). That’s exactly Realmuto’s well-hit average in 2015, when he hit .259. A decent player but just doesn’t move the needle enough for me to forgo waiting much longer on catcher — especially in one-catcher formats. Yadier Molina is going seven rounds later, for example, if your objective is to gain batting average at the position.

1B Todd Frazier (ADP:  70):  Had a terrible well-hit rate (.142) even including the strikeouts. For comparison’s sake, Chris Carter’s was .202. Frazier projects to strikeout 150-plus times and if he does that he’s probably a .235 hitter. I can’t take on this batting average hit with a single-digit pick. Remember, 111 guys hit 20-plus homers last year, a record. You can get lots of power later than this after you build up some average surplus. So forget Frazier and grab Hanley Ramirez, who goes a few picks later on average.

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2B Javier Baez (ADP: 153):  He’s not that young anymore. What you see probably is what you get. But you’re still paying a prospect and Cubs tax. Wait a couple of rounds for the less sexy but probably more productive Jonathan Schoop or about five more rounds for top-of-the-order MI bat Logan Forsythe.

SS Jonathan Villar (ADP: 44): I already wrote about Villar here and don’t see any other notable problems with how the deep class of middle infielders is coming off the board. I prefer Jean Segura three rounds later to Villar.

3B Kyle Seager (ADP: 50): There’s nothing wrong with owning Seager but he’s more of a 25-homer hitter and it’s hard to project him over .270. Give me ageless-wonder Adrian Beltre (about 10 picks later on average) who has hit .300 or better in five of the last six years (.287 the other year). Remember that Hall of Famers like Beltre defy standard aging curves. Beltre’s K/BB ratio (66/48) is something out of the 1950s.

OF Billy Hamilton (ADP: 85): Don’t do it. You can finesse steals in today’s game by picking your spots without sacrificing too much other-category juice and still walk out of the draft room with 110-to-120 projected steals. Hamilton could easily lose his job if the Reds decide to put Jose Peraza in center and prospect Dilson Herrera (who they traded Jay Bruce for) at second base.

OF Ryan Braun (ADP: 27): He was discounted last year given his injury and PED risk at ADP 43. You have to expect at least one DL stint and who knows how that is going to affect performance before and after. I’d take Daniel Murphy with this pick, or a host of other players. Position is irrelevant this high. I think you’re paying close to retail and likely to buy some problems.

OF George Springer (ADP: 32): He said he’s not going to steal much anymore in an interview on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Springer said that the pitchers and catchers are way too good compared with the minors so he’s basically mothballing that part of his game. Remember he was 9-for-19 stealing last year. But that ADP requires at least 15 bags and remember last season was his one healthy year.

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Players Yahoo experts covet in Fantasy Baseball drafts

With spring training underway, it can mean only one thing: your fantasy baseball draft is just around the corner. With that in mind, the Yahoo fantasy baseball expert collective offer up the players they covet at the top of the draft:

[Sign up for Yahoo Fantasy Baseball | 2017 Player Rankings | Mock Draft]

Q. What offensive player being drafted, on average (Yahoo ADP), inside the top 60 players, will you be reaching for the most?

Brandon Funston:  XANDER BOGAERTS. I can’t help myself on this guy. As a 22-year-old in ’14, he finished as the No. 42 overall player in the Y! game. Last season, at 23, he jumped up to No. 29. I think a line of .300/20/100/100/10 is very realistic for ’17. I don’t plan to sit back and hope I get him in Round 3 (his Y! ADP is 26.7) . I’ll be the guy snatching him up a round before that.

Andy Behrens: I love KYLE SCHWARBER like my own husky child, and he’s retained catcher eligibility in 2017. It’s rare that a catcher can produce top-60 fantasy value, but it certainly helps when the guy primarily plays the outfield. And it really helps when the player is slated to bat leadoff and he has clear 30-homer potential. I’ll take Schwarber all day. 

Scott Pianowski: I sure hope the 43.7 tag on J.D. MARTINEZ lasts for a few more weeks. A fluke injury kept his numbers down last year; there was nothing wrong with his efficiency otherwise. The Tigers might not have the best lineup 1-through-9, but the key spots are stocked nicely. You’re getting a round or round-and-a-half discount for no good reason; take it. Martinez offers both upside and floor entering his age-29 season. 

Dalton Del Don: COREY SEAGER. He plays shortstop and just posted a .308/.365/.512 line as a 22-year-old rookie. Dodger Stadium is no doubt a pitcher’s park, but it has increased home runs for left-handed batters by 17 percent over the last three seasons (only three have been higher over that span), and Seager sure looks like a future MVP candidate. I want him in the second round in every league I’m in. 

Q. What pitcher being drafted, on average (Yahoo ADP), inside the top 75 players, will you be reaching for the most?

Brandon Funston: AROLDIS CHAPMAN. I already proved I’d be reaching on Chapman a few weeks back when the Yahoo crew held a three-round mock exercise. I took Chapman in Round 3 of that draft, more than a full round ahead of where he’s going in Yahoo ADP (52.0). I’m not usually a closer-early advocate, but I see little downside in reaching a bit for Chapman. He offers a track record of 100-plus strikeouts (huge bonus in IP-capped leagues), an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP under 1.00, with the likelihood of 30-40 saves. And, lets be honest, a 100.4 mph average fastball doesn’t slump.

Andy Behrens: JOHNNY CUETO is a personal favorite, both stylistically and for fantasy purposes. I’m happy to take a National League starter who’s a near-lock for a 1.05-ish WHIP over 200-plus innings. 

Scott Pianowski: I’m not sure I have a great answer to this; I’ll be focusing on hitting early, and I see a lot of cheaper pitchers in the 90-130 ADP pocket that draw my attention. But if you force me to identify a Top 75 value, put me down for AROLDIS CHAPMAN (52.6). His ratios are silly, and his strikeouts pay the bills more than many recognize, especially in an innings-capped format. I realize in the less-skilled leagues, it’s trendy to get your saves for nothing. It’s not anywhere near that easy in a league with a legitimate competition level. 

Dalton Del Don: CLAYTON KERSHAW. This may seem obvious, but Kershaw is the No. 1 player on my board. If you want someone slightly deeper, it’s Yu Darvish, whom I’m picking to win the A.L. Cy Young this year and would love to grab him in round three. 

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Fantasy Basketball pickups: Waiver wire adds for Week 19

Large minutes and consistent workloads are key for possible waiver adds, and this week there are many players available who have large roles in their rotations.

By Alex Rikleen Special to Yahoo Sports

Terrance Ross, SG/SF, Orlando Magic, 48% owned

Since the Magic acquired Ross as part of the Serge Ibaka-to-the-Raptors trade, Ross is second on his new team in minutes and third in shot attempts. Ross is attempting 5.5 threes per game as a Magician, up from the 4.7 he was averaging as a member of the Raptors. All that extra opportunity has translated to 13.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.5 threes, and 2.0 steals per game since the break. His field goal percentage is .431, and it will probably fall – as a member of the Raptors, he was at best the fourth or fifth offensive option, whereas he is now a focal point of the Magic offense. His increased production in all other categories should easily outweigh the decline in field goal percentage.

Next week’s schedule: NYK, CHI, at CHA, CLE

[Join a Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball contest now | Free NBA Yahoo Cup entry] Willy Hernangomez, C, New York Knicks, 42%

The season-ending knee injury to Joakim Noah opens up a lot of opportunity at the Knicks center spot. When Hernangomez sat Wednesday and Friday with an ankle injury, Kyle O’Quinn did not start in his place. Instead, the Knicks shifted Kirstaps Porzingis to center, and kept Lance Thomas in the starting lineup as a power forward. The shift was not superficial either, as Thomas played 73 minutes to O’Quinn’s 36 in the two games. Monday, when Hernangomez was active but Porzingis was not, Hernangomez played 34 minutes to O’Quinn’s 15. All that is to say that, after months of competing for minutes, O’Quinn finally seems to have fallen definitively behind Hernangomez on the depth chart. Hernangomez is averaging 14.9 points, 13.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.0 steals per 36 minutes, and he is finally in a position to consistently see big minutes.

Next week’s schedule: at ORL, at MIL, at DET, at BKN

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Maurice Harkless, SF, Portland Trail Blazers, 37%

Harkless’ 37.0 minutes per game since the All-Star break ranks 15th in the league. When he’s getting this much court time, he becomes one of those rare “1-1-1” players – guys who can get at least one three, one steal, and one block per game. He’s having his most efficient shooting season of his career, averaging 48.5 percent from the field, and increasing that to 60.0 percent since the break. His value will probably take a hit when Evan Turner (hand) returns, but that should be at least another week away. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have a favorable schedule, playing five games, including two against the 76ers and Suns, who are two of the most fantasy-friendly defenses.

Next week’s schedule: at MIN, at OKC, PHI, WAS, at PHO

Buddy Hield, SG, Sacramento Kings, 44%

Hield’s ownership has actually dropped over the past week, which is why he’s getting mentioned two weeks in a row. Hield was the centerpiece of the Kings’ return package for sending DeMarcus Cousins to the Pelicans, and owner Vivek Ranadive reportedly thinks Hield is the next Stephen Curry. In that context, Hield’s role in the rotation moving forward seems pretty safe. He has played between 26 and 27 minutes in all of his first four games as a King, an almost suspiciously consistent figure. Workloads that consistent are usually the result of a medically mandated minutes cap, which is not the case here. It seems reasonable, therefore, that management might be providing some pressure to make sure Hield’s workload is a part of a specific plan to maximize his development. Regardless of the motivations, he’s performing well in his new role. He is averaging 13.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.0 threes per game since the trade. In three of the four games, he scored at least 15 points and shot better than 50 percent from the field.

Next week’s schedule: at DEN, at SAS, WAS, DEN

Brandon Ingram, SG/SF, Los Angeles Lakers, 48%

Ingram’s value saw a major boost after the Lakers traded away Louis Williams at the trade deadline, helped by his 35.5 minutes per game since the All-Star break. At this stage in his development, he’s primarily just a scorer, though he also adds some value in rebounds and assists. He’s the second youngest player in the league, and he is still tiny by NBA girth standards. As a result, he’s prone to have some ineffective and low-scoring games, like he did Tuesday against the Hornets (8 points) and the Celtics Friday (scoreless). But he is long, athletic, improving, and has recently been handed one of the largest workloads in the league. Before Friday’s flop, he was averaging 13.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.0 threes per game since the break.

Next week’s schedule: at DAL, at PHO, PHI

Alex Abrines, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder, 2%

In his first three games after the All-Star break, he averaged 30.0 minutes per game, and scored 14.3 points while adding 3.7 threes per game. In the fourth game, the Thunder went with a different rotation, and though Abrines started, he and fellow starter Damantas Sabonis were limited to 10 minutes each. Abrines’ court time seemed to come at the expense of Doug McDermott, who shot only 33.3 percent from the field and 16.7 percent from three-point range in his 37 minutes. Additionally, the Thunder lost to the theoretically inferior Trail Blazers. And, despite only playing 10 minutes, Abrines still managed to make two three pointers. Altogether, the “limit Abrines to give extra run to McDermott” experiment seems to have been a total flop. It therefore seems likely that Abrines’ minutes will rebound as they did Friday night with 33, and his scoring and three-point production is unusually high for a player so widely available.

Next week’s schedule: POR, SAS, UTA

Zaza Pachulia, C, Golden State Warriors, 15%

Pachulia is only an option for leagues with 12 or more teams, but he has good value in those deeper settings. He usually only plays between 15 and 20 minutes per night, but recently he has been highly productive with that time. In just 17.0 minutes per game since the All-Star break, he is shooting 67.9 percent from the field, 80.0 percent from the free throw line, and averaging 10.0 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, and 1.2 assists. That kind of well-rounded production is hard to find late in the season, even if none of it is superb.

Next week’s schedule: at ATL, BOS, at MIN, at SAS

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Late-round sleepers for your Fantasy Baseball draft

With spring training underway, it can mean only one thing: your fantasy baseball draft is just around the corner. With that in mind, the Yahoo fantasy baseball expert collective offer up some potential get-rich lottery tickets, those players we’ll be targeting in the late rounds of upcoming drafts:

[Sign up for Yahoo Fantasy Baseball | 2017 Player Rankings | Mock Draft]

Q. What infielder being drafted, on average (Yahoo ADP), outside the top 200 players, will you be reaching for in ’17 fantasy drafts?

Brandon Funston: JOSE REYES. The Mets weren’t a good offense last season, which means they can’t afford to not have Reyes’ production (.769 OPS, 8 HR, 9 SB in 255 ABs) in the lineup on a regular basis. And, let’s be real, what are the chances of David Wright staying even remotely healthy at this point in his career? 

Andy Behrens: TIM ANDERSON is going outside the top 225 picks in Yahoo drafts thus far, and he should provide an easy 30-plus steals for the White Sox, assuming good health. He’s established as a starter, and blindingly fast. Anderson swiped 49 bags in the minors in 2015. 

Scott Pianowski:  So far DEVON TRAVIS has about a full season of MLB experience, 163 games. Check what that adds up to: .301/.342/.469, 19 homers, seven steals, 92 runs, 85 RBIs. Give me some of that, please. If he’s healthy in 2017, he’ll be a ridiculous steal at ADP 211.

Q. What outfielder being drafted, on average (Yahoo ADP), outside the top 200 players, will you be reaching for in ’17 fantasy drafts?

Brandon Funston: NOMAR MAZARA. Sure, he wilted a bit in the second half after a torrid start to his rookie campaign last season, but players that can post 20-HR/.739 OPS seasons in their age 21 season are a rare breed. Matt Holliday, Yasiel Puig, Max Kepler and Rajai Davis will also be on my late-round OF short list.

Dalton Del Don: ERIC THAMES. Obviously he’s no sure thing considering he hasn’t played in the major leagues since 2012 (when he wasn’t very successful), but Thames is still just 30 years old and coming off a stretch in the Korean league in which he absolutely tore it up. He’s outfield eligible but will be playing first base (making him more likely to stay healthy) while hitting in the middle of the Brewers’ lineup. Over the last three seasons, Miller Park has increased home runs by 49 percent for left-handed batters, which is easily the highest in MLB, so Thames is in a terrific situation. Steamer is actually projecting 29 homers and 12 steals in fewer than 130 games played (with a 124 wRC+ that would’ve equaled Nolan Arenado’s mark last season), and while that may be a bit bullish, it illustrates the point of Thames clearly being undervalued at draft tables right now. 

Scott Pianowski: All the post-hype rules apply to BYRON BUXTON, and for now, you can still land him at the nice price. Did you catch what he did over the final month of the year? Nine homers, an OPS over 1.000. I figure he’ll either start the season as Minnesota’s leadoff man, or ascend to that post quickly. We’re not just talking about prospect pedigree here; we’re talking about someone who was first or second on the primary future-star lists from 2014-2016.

Q. What pitcher being drafted, on average (Yahoo ADP), outside the top 200 players, will you be reaching for in ’17 fantasy drafts?

Brandon Funston: JAHREL COTTON. He’s only being drafted in about two-thirds of Yahoo leagues, so he’s an easy get right now. Cotton possesses a sensational change-up and three other quality pitches , he has good command of those pitches and pitches for a team that will be willing to extend the leash further for a 25-year-old rookie than most clubs would. An upper 3 ERA, with 8-9 K/9 and 9-11 wins is entirely reasonable, and would represent a steal of a deal based on his current draft price.

Andy Behrens: ROBBIE RAY’s fantasy ratios were horrific last season, but the man struck out a whopping 218 batters in 174.1 innings. He had no luck at all on balls in play last year (.352 BABIP), so we can expect his ERA and WHIP to be … well, less disastrous, at least. 

Dalton Del Don: CARLOS RODON. He pitches in the A.L. in an extreme hitter’s park and still needs to greatly improve his control, but Rodon is just 24 years old and was the No. 3 overall pick of the draft not that long ago. He averaged 93.4 mph with his fastball last year, which was the second highest in MLB among left-handed starters, producing a strong 10.1 SwStr%. Rodon posted a 77:22 K:BB ratio over 73.0 innings with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP after the All-Star break, and he’s poised to fully breakout in 2017. 

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Three-round Fantasy Baseball mock draft starts in controversial fashion

The Yahoo Fantasy Baseball crew recently conducted a three-round mock draft. Things kicked off with a controversial choice when Dalton Del Don took Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw No. 1 overall, bucking the conventional wisdom of taking an everyday player such as Mike Trout or Mookie Betts at the top of drafts.

[Sign up for Yahoo Fantasy Baseball | Draft Kit | Player Rankings | Mock Draft]

After Dalton was shouted down by the entire room, Round 1 played at as follows.

Clayton Kershaw

Mike  Trout

Mookie Betts

Kris Bryant

Nolan Arenado

Paul Goldschmidt

Jose Altuve

Manny Machado

Josh Donaldson

Bryce Harper

Six more pitchers came off the board between Rounds 2 and 3, including what many called the best value of the exercise with Chris Sale going 29th. Infielders were the most popular way to go as 18 players with that eligibility were taken over the three rounds.

Round 2 11. Anthony Rizzo 12. Max Scherzer 13. Trea Turner 14. Madison Bumgarner 15. Charlie Blackmon 16. Noah Syndergaard 17. Miguel Cabrera 18. Carlos Correa 19. Corey Seager 20. Joey Votto

Round 3 21. Jonathan Villar 22. Francisco Lindor 23. Xander Bogaerts 24. Robinson Cano 25. George Springer 26. Brian Dozier 27. Daniel Murphy 28. Aroldis Chapman 29. Chris Sale 30. Corey Kluber

Be sure to sign up for your own league and let us know which picks you agree or disagree with as you plot your draft strategy for the 2017 season.

More on Yahoo Sports: • Hawks suspend German player after ‘visa problem’ • Aaron Rodgers weighs in: Tom Brady is the GOAT • Warriors upset at Shaq’s JaVale McGee jokes • The twin pillars of Daytona: a racetrack and a bikini bar

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Cliff Notes for last big weekend for Fantasy Football drafts of 2018

This is it, the last week or so of heavy duty fantasy football drafting. The offseason feels longer than ever — but it’s all a labor of love.

If you were headed into a draft in 30 minutes and just had a few moments for some advice, a tip, some “swing thoughts” from a caddy — here’s what I might tell you. (As always, your mileage will vary, you know your league better than I do, and of course it’s all contextual — that’s the understood disclaimer to any general discussion we have.)

If you’re looking for a deeper dive on the latest player and team situations, we have you covered there, too.

The Obvious Stuff 

• You have to know your rules backwards and forwards. This is so blatantly obvious, I feel sheepish even saying it. But if you’re in as many leagues as I am, it’s not always obvious what the rules are. Do your homework.

• A plan is good, but keep it in pencil. Stay flexible. The only unbreakable rule is no unbreakable rules.

• Listen to all you respect, but make your own decisions. It’s YOUR team. You’re the guy or girl who has to like it.

• My fantasy football experience goes back to the mid-90s. I’ve never seen a year with amazing quarterback depth like we have in 2018. If you’re in a start-one QB league, I beg you, play the value game. You will never feel “stuck” at quarterback.

• Sometimes a too-cute owner will stockpile quarterbacks with the idea that you can trade one from a position of strength. That almost never works, and the surplus is meekly cut soon thereafter.

• I’ll glance at snap counts and shares in-season, but what I mostly care about is how someone is used when they play. And when a part-timer starts to produce, it’s usually reasonable to expect a role increase. The takeaway: if someone is producing but on less-than-full snaps, I don’t care about the latter point. They’re producing.

The Green Bay Packers just gave Aaron Rodgers a massive contract, but that doesn’t mean you need to overpay for him or any quarterback in your fantasy draft. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps, File)

The Golden Rule

• Play fantasy football with a microscope, not a telescope. Play for Today. Look at the current slate, and short look-aheads. We’ll worry about the playoff weeks later (hopefully, when we’re 6-2 and sitting pretty.) It’s a mistake to try to win Week 15 in August. Win the first month. Win the first game. I can’t say this enough — so much is going to radically change. Live in the present.

General Thoughts

• Any strategy can work if you pick the right players, but I want one of my first two picks to be a running back, if possible and if reasonable.

• Wide receiver is deep as usual, but remember some of the guys who are easy to pick in the middle rounds might not be easy to start. Running back is my main priority at the top, but I don’t want to completely tank on receivers, either.

• I don’t draft into injury problems unless I get a significant discount. Some of you have heard me say this 1,000 times. It means, sadly, I do not have any recent Doug Baldwin shares. The market, at least where I have been, has not adjusted.

First thing you do for an online draft is scribble down all the names you think are grossly underranked. You could also queue them, but I don’t like to do too much of that, because I want the better talent visible in queue. Anyway, know where buried treasure is. Awareness is key.

— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) September 1, 2018

  • If an NFL team has a nothing set of tight ends, don’t let wide receiver gridlock spook you. The Lions are the cleanest example of this.

• If I’m starting any kind of a new league, it’s a multiple-flex league where one of those flexes can also be a quarterback. So, basically, a two-QB league. I also like leagues that start a bunch of players and have modest benches — the more difficult choices a league asks me to make, the more I like it. And with heavy starting requirements, one outlier performance (good or bad) doesn’t automatically swing the result.

• I want a fast start. I want leverage. I want to be aggressive early with waivers. And I view bye weeks as a fantastic opportunity to improve my winning chances, both short-term and long-term. (Your first extensive league audit should coincide with the first bye week, Week 4.)

• I like to put at least one “points scored” team in the playoffs, manually, no matter the won/loss record. Yes, Yahoo’s game allows the commish to do this.

[Join a Yahoo Fantasy Football league before the season: Sign up now for free]

• If you can find someone who shares your NFL world-view, partnering up is practically a cheat code. And you’ll always have someone else who cares about your team, and someone to share the grunt-work with. (If you’re not going to have a co-owner, at least identify 2-3 good friends you can discuss stuff with, privately. We all need someone to hash stuff out with; to talk us out of an occasional bad idea; to tell us the truth, as they see it, in blunt terms.)

• As soon as the real games start, I’ll divorce myself from preseason thoughts quickly. Consider the new information. Play the new position. Anchoring old opinions tied to dated information is the ultimate dinosaur move. Play For Today is as much about not looking back as it is not looking too far ahead.

Did I miss your favorite player or biggest conundrum? Hit me up on Twitter: @scott_pianowski

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