#oscah talk 2021

[aliveandfullofjoy]

I’m anxious about the election and our crumbling democracy et cetera et cetera so I’m gonna distract myself by making some Oscar predictions, lol.

I don’t think I’ve officially made any yet, but with the nominations a good five months away, might as well start making some guesses!

All predictions in alphabetical order, not likelihood of happening.

BEST PICTURE

The Father 

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

Minari

News of the World

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

Soul

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Keeping an eye on: Da 5 Bloods; Judas and the Black Messiah; The Midnight Sky; The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Weird year! 

It’s easy to imagine that the top four will shake out to be Mank (which will lead the nomination count, is a likely Director winner, and could easily take the whole thing), Nomadland, News of the World, and The Father. Beyond that, I have no idea! 

Miami and Ma Rainey feel fairly safe. 

I’m trying to manifest a Room-esque haul for Minari. 

I don’t see Trial having the passion to carry it all the way to March as a top contender, but it’s basic enough to make it into Best Picture with support from actors and writers. 

It’ll be neat to see if Soul can be the first animated nominee here since Toy Story 3. 

BEST DIRECTOR

Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)

David Fincher (Mank)

Paul Greengrass (News of the World)

Florian Zeller (The Father)

Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)

Keeping an eye on: Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7); Regina King (One Night in Miami); George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom); Lee Daniels (The United States vs. Billie Holiday); Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods)

Predicting winners this far out is a fool’s errand, but this will likely be an easy win for Fincher. 

Again, I’m holding out hope for Chung and Minari, and it’s worth noting that the directors branch tends to appreciate movies anchored around a child performance -- Room and Beasts of the Southern Wild both surprised here, so it’s not totally unrealistic. 

Unless something really wild happens, Zhao looks primed to become the sixth woman nominated for Best Director, and the first woman of color. 

Regina King stands a chance at joining her, which would be really, really cool. 

George C. Wolfe might get squeezed in if both Chadwick Boseman and Viola Davis end up as frontrunners for their respective awards.

BEST ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

Tom Hanks (News of the World)

Anthony Hopkins (The Father)

Gary Oldman (Mank)

Steven Yeun (Minari)

Keeping an eye on: Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods); Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami); Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

The late, great Boseman will officially be going lead for Ma Rainey, which makes things interesting. He would have been a slam-dunk winner in Supporting Actor, but in leading, he is now competing with Hopkins, whose reviews are out-of-this-world. It’s going to be awfully tight, and honestly, I don’t know who I’d predict to win right now. Either way, it’s all-but-guaranteed that Boseman will join the likes of Jeanne Eagels, James Dean, Spencer Tracy, Ralph Richardson, and Massimo Troisi as a posthumous acting nominee. If he wins, he’ll be the third, after Peter Finch and Heath Ledger.

Depending on how well Netflix handles all of their contenders, I’m worried for Yeun and Lindo here. I’d love for both to get in, but I just can’t see Hanks or Oldman missing out, especially if both of their films end up being major Best Picture contenders. Since I’m predicting Minari to do better than Bloods across the board, I’ll predict Yeun to make history as the first East Asian Best Actor nominee over Lindo. 

Judas and the Black Messiah is basically the biggest question mark in the race right now. Its release and eligibility is up in the air and as are its category placement for its two leads (Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield). If the film comes out and delivers, I could see it sliding into Best Picture as well as nabbing a nomination for one or both of them. Actor is tighter than Supporting, though, so it might make sense for the studio to push previous nominee Kaluuya (who has the flashier role) into supporting. 

BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)

Frances McDormand (Nomadland)

Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

Kate Winslet (Ammonite)

Keeping an eye on: Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy); Jennifer Hudson (Respect); Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman); Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead); Meryl Streep (The Prom)

Honestly, this category is deep this year. So much so that the five I left off (Adams, Hudson, Kirby, Loren, Streep) could make sense as a lineup in any other year, and I expect most of them will pop up at the different precursors (Streep won’t come near the Oscar -- probably -- but she is guaranteed a spot at the Golden Globes). 

I can easily see a world in which Davis is the one to beat: her role is juicy as hell and a Best Actress Oscar feels inevitable for her. However, if Boseman ends up winning Best Actor -- which is very possible! -- the situation becomes a bit tougher. It’s really hard for movies to win both Actor and Actress unless they’re, like, top five Best Picture material, and I don’t know if Ma Rainey will end up that high. 

Keeping a sharp eye on Andra Day! Early buzz is great, it’s a juicy role that’s already been nominated for Best Actress (Diana Ross in 1972), and this could end up being a real star-is-born type moment. She’s the only other person who makes sense to me as a possible winner. 

Mulligan is my wildcard prediction, lol. She’ll probably miss out to someone like Adams (unless Hillbilly gets completely destroyed) or maybe even Loren (whose narrative writes itself). 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Charles Dance (Mank)

Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)

Eddie Redmayne (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Keeping an eye on: Yahya Abdul-Matteen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7); Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods); Trevante Rhodes (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7); Jeremy Strong (The Trial of the Chicago 7); Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

It’s funny, for a little bit, it looked like some of the possible Best Actor contenders would be pushed supporting (Boseman and Yeun, specifically). Now... well, it’s looking weird.

Trial, which might not even end up a top 5 Best Picture contender, could easily snag two, maybe three, nominations in this category since Netflix announced they’re pushing every actor in supporting. Baron Cohen feels like the surest thing of that cast -- he has one of the flashiest roles and Borat 2 is only helping him stay in the conversation -- and I wouldn’t be surprised if Redmayne happened. He’s basically the lead of the movie. I’m curious if Abdul-Matteen or Rylance or Strong will be able to get in over them. The rest of the cast is (I think) DOA. 

If I had to pick a winner today, I’d probably say Sacha Baron Cohen or Leslie Odom, Jr., whose performance as Sam Cooke seems to be getting a lot of attention (along with Kingsley Ben-Adir’s Malcolm X, who might be getting a leading push). That both have other huge projects this year that won’t get them Oscar nominations (Borat 2 and Disney+’s release of Hamilton respectively) only helps their narrative. 

I have no idea about Charles Dance, lol. I’m only really picking him because he’s an old veteran character actor (which this category thrives on) and he likely has a major antagonistic role in the Best Picture frontrunner playing a real person (check, check, check!). 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)

Olivia Colman (The Father)

Amanda Seyfriend (Mank)

Youn Yuh-Jung (Minari)

Helena Zengel (News of the World)

Keeping an eye on: Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite); Olivia Williams (The Father)

Can Close finally win an Oscar? Or will Colman snatch it from her yet again!? Will Seyfried get swept up in a Best Picture sweep?! Or will Zengel be the one place the Academy can reward News of the World in an above-the-line category?! So much excitement. 

Predicting Youn over Ronan mostly in my expectation that Minari will be a bigger deal with the Academy than Ammonite, but conventional (racist) Oscar wisdom tells us that a four-time nominee like Ronan is more likely than a Korean older woman who is mostly unknown American audiences. We’ll have to see!

#oscah talk 2021 #sometimes elliott watches movies #oscars