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auburnfamilynews · 5 years

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For the first time in a couple of cycles, Auburn is still in search for their QB of the class

While it is still likely Auburn lands a transfer or two, for all intents and purposes the 2019 cycle has come to an end. That means the 2020 class is now on the clock. I’ve touched already on Auburn’s current commits (or at least who was committed at the time) along with some names to know early this cycle. But over the coming weeks, I plan to dig a bit deeper into each position group and highlight who appear to be Auburn’s legitimate options in the 2020 class.

We start today with quarterbacks. It’s been a while since Auburn hasn’t already had their QB of the class committed. Both Joey Gatewood and Bo Nix jumped on board very early in their respective cycles. Already eight of the fourteen QB prospects Auburn has offered have already committed. Quarterbacks tend to end their recruitments early so that they can help build their signing class which tends to lead to a game of QB dominoes that SBNation’s Bud Elliot does a great job tracking year to year.

Another interesting observation about Auburn’s early recruiting efforts is that the Tigers have already offered fourteen prospects. That’s more than any previous class under Malzahn and we are only in February. That tells you this staff is having to spread a wider net this cycle which is understandable. Auburn will enter spring ball with three freshman QBs on the roster (two being redshirts). That’s not a favorable situation for a QB who wants to play early and QBs wanting to play early has become a major thing.

So all that to say, Auburn will definitely try and sign a QB this cycle but it might take longer than usual. Who wins the starting job could have a major impact as could any possible transfers by those that don’t win the job. I don’t expect a high profile name this class but if Auburn can get a kid with high upside but maybe needs time to develop, I would consider that a success.

I feel safe in saying we can eliminate a number of quarterback targets already. First, there are those committed elsewhere. Obviously, Auburn could always flip one of these kids but none have been linked to the Tigers in some time.

5* Bryce Young (USC) - Might have the most entertaining tape of any QB I’ve seen this class

4* Jack Miller (Ohio State) - Good chance he ends up the #1 QB overall

4* Harrison Bailey (Tennessee) - I expect his ranking to drop some over the cycle but a definite top 200 player

4* Max Johnson (LSU) - Surprised he’s listed in top 100, solid player but not sure he’s elite

4* Hudson Card (Texas) - Would be my pick for Auburn to sign in this class if I had that power

4* Drew Pyne (Notre Dame) - Will be a very good fit for Brian Kelly’s system

4* TJ Finley (LSU) - Massive frame but very raw as a passer

4* Luke Doty (South Carolina) - Could start as a true freshman for Will Muschamp

Next, I think there are two more prospects that look extremely unlikely to land at Auburn so I’ll eliminate them as well.

5* DJ Uiagalelei - The current #1 QB in the nation dropped a top 12 that did not include Auburn. Clemson looks like the early favorite and he would be the perfect successor to Trevor Lawrence

4* Malik Hornsby - I believe Auburn is very high on Hornsby but not sure feelings are mutual. Texas A&M is the overwhelming favorite at this time.

That leaves four realistic targets left on the board but I wouldn’t be surprised if no one from this list ends up in Auburn’s class. I expect we see more offers doled out in the coming months as Kenny Dillingham does his own evaluations. But for now, here are the four targets to track closely for the Tigers.

4* Robby Ashford | 6’4” | 210 lbs | Hoover, AL

Top Teams: Auburn, Georgia

Recruitment: If Auburn signs someone mentioned in this article it will most likely be Ashford. The Hoover standout broke out in 2018 with an outstanding performance in the Bucs win over Bo Nix’s Pinson Valley squad on ESPN. He plans to play baseball at the next level so this is a joint recruiting effort by Gus Malzahn and Butch Thompson. Early on in this race, it looked like the Tigers were the team to beat. However, UGA has come on strong and with their recent flip of 5* WR George Pickens, they might now be the team to beat. A decision is expected in March. As of now, I believe Ashford is Auburn’s top target this cycle.

Scouting Report: It’s all about potential with Ashford. He has a massive frame, a great arm and is a tremendous athlete. However, his accuracy can be spotty at times and he has the benefit of working behind an OL that’s typically better than their opponent. Against more talented teams his numbers cratered. However, he’s a guy that if given time to develop could be a weapon at QB. Interested to see how he progresses as a senior this season.

4* Haynes King | 6’3” | 180 lbs | Longview, TX

Top Teams: Arkansas, Auburn, Baylor, LSU, TCU, Tennessee

Recruitment: King’s recruitment is just now taking off and I expect more teams to jump into the fray in the coming months. He visited the Plains for Auburn’s battle with LSU in September and left having positive things to say about the Tigers though Chip Lindsey was heading up that recruitment at the time. Will he be a priority for Dillingham moving forward? We will have to wait and see. His last visit was to TCU for their Junior Day. Let’s see if he makes it to the Plains this spring.

Scouting Report: I’m a big fan of King’s game. He’s gonna need some time in the weight room to handle being hit by SEC defenders but I could see him causing problems at the next level. King can hurt you equally as well with feet and arm. He plays in a system that asks him to do a lot of things from 5 step drops out of an I-formation to quick-hitting passing concepts out of the gun. King can make pretty much every throw with tremendous accuracy. He’s a very good football player that I would love to see land in Auburn’s class if possible.

3* Chandler Morris | 6’0” | 170 lbs | Dallas, TX

Top Teams: Arkansas, Auburn, SMU

Recruitment: I probably could have put Morris in the unlikely column seeing as he is the son of current Arkansas head football coach Chad Morris. You would think then he’s a virtual lock to the Hogs. But if he didn’t want to play for his father then I think Auburn is the team to watch. As you probably well know, it was Morris’s adoption of Gus Malzahn’s system that saw his career take flight. The two are still good friends and if Chandler decides to blaze his own trail then Auburn would immediately become a top contender. With that said, all early signs point to him playing for his father in Fayetteville.

Scouting Report: Being the son of a collegiate head football coach, Chandler is clearly a kid that understands football. I love his processing speed and ability to work through his progressions quickly. He’s deadly accurate throwing a nice flat ball that jumps out of his hand. He can make plays with his feet when needed as well though that skill might not be as dominant at the next level. Overall though the makings of a really good college quarterback.

Jaden Walley | 6’0” | 170 lbs | Biloxi, MS

Top Teams: Auburn, Mississippi State, Southern Miss

Recruitment: Not a lot out there on Walley’s recruitment at the moment though he visited the Plains for Auburn’s most recent Junior Day weekend. Being a Mississippi kid, it’s likely the in-state programs will be top threats if they want him. At this time though I’m not really sure where he sits on anyone’s boards especially seeing as he might be better listed as an athlete than quarterback.

Scouting Report: As of now, I don’t think Walley is a Power 5 quarterback prospect. He’s an elite athlete who can shred defenses with the ball in his hands but it’s all based off his feet. As a passer, he’s inaccurate and reluctant. Arm strength seems average as well. My guess is if AU is actually recruiting him it’s to play WR or DB because I just don’t see him playing QB in the SEC. But then again, Auburn could take a chance on someone like Walley this class, see if they can develop him and if not transition him to another position.

Up Next: Defensive Tackle

War Eagle!

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flauntpage · 6 years

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Alshon Jeffery and JJ Redick Are Pretty Much the Same Guy

There’s a Philadelphia athlete who was brought in on a short-term deal to solve a specific offensive problem. The numbers aren’t amazing, but you see the occasional flash of individual brilliance while he makes the teammates around him better. Sometimes fans become frustrated when #17 fails to do the main thing he was brought here to do, but there are absolutely more positives than negatives.

That guy is actually two guys. It’s JJ Redick and Alshon Jeffery, who are both going through eerily similar seasons with the Sixers and Eagles.

Both are here on high-end, one-year contracts to improve each team’s scoring potential. For the Eagles, it was about giving Carson Wentz a bona fide WR1. For the Sixers, it was getting a knock-down shooter and veteran to boot, someone who could complement the young core of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid (and Markelle Fultz). Each deal was beneficial in a two-way sense, with both team and player testing the waters in a short-term scenario. Not the right fit? You’re a free agent next year. Underperforming? Let’s mutually part ways.

I think fans generally like what they’ve seen from each player while wanting more.

Let’s start with…

JJ Redick

12 and 19 points on 53% deep-ball shooting is a good way to start the season.

JJ has been a bit streaky since then, going cold in the Toronto and Detroit games before missing time with a minor back issue.

He wowed the Wells Fargo Center with a 31 point performance on 8-12 three-point shooting against Indiana, then hit the skids a bit at the tail-end of the recent road trip.

Redick shot 4-15 in last night’s win and is now 8-34 from downtown since his Indiana triumph:

JJ is now shooting 35% from beyond this season. He hasn’t finished below 40% in that column since 2013-2014, which was his first year in Los Angeles. He’s 42.1% from the field overall, his lowest number since making that brief stop in Milwaukee five years back. And his minutes are up to 33 per game, which is five more than what he played on average in the last two seasons.

The numbers are slightly down but we’re also 14 games into a new season with a new team playing a different style, so we’ll leave it at that, for now.

He’ll stay on the court as long as Brett Brown trusts his ability create attention and space the floor.

For that reason, he played 32 minutes despite only scoring 8 points back on November 1st, the game in which he returned from injury.

Said Brown:

“Do you go with Dario? Do you go with T.J.? Or do you go with Jerryd Bayless? Tonight we actually considered JJ, because he was struggling a little bit, he had only just come back, but you’re reminded that, no matter if he’s making shots or he isn’t, the attention he receives is prominent. You see it. It creates space. It turns it almost into a 4 on 4 game. I think we had him playing with Joel for maybe 5 or 6 possessions in a row. Whether he’s making shots or not he creates attention.”

Case in point, possessions like this, where Redick doesn’t shoot the ball, but there’s so much movement and spacing that the collective Sixers’ unit benefits:

That’s critical here. I really think Redick’s added gravity and the Sixers’ improved ball movement has benefited Robert Covington, who just earned himself a big money deal.

The interesting thing will be how that deal, and Covington’s performance over the rest of the season, affects Redick’s contract situation for next year. Do the Sixers see Redick as expendable if Covington continues to shoot this way? Fultz is coming back as well. Dario Saric is getting stronger in a starting role. If Redick does return, it’s not going to be at a 23 million dollar rate. He’s spoken of his enjoyment playing in front of Philly crowds, so maybe he takes a lesser deal to stay with a team that’s quickly trending upward. Every squad could use a veteran shooter.

Redick does look a little off-balance this year when he releases, especially in transition. I’m not sure if that has something to do with the tempo the Sixers play at, but it does feel like he’s leaning forward a bit on his motion. You didn’t see as much of that when he played in LA. You saw a lot of this:

Feet set, open look.

Anyway, the Sixers are 8-6 and just finished a five-game road swing with a 3-2 mark. They’re above .500 for the first time in years and I don’t even think they’ve played their best basketball yet. If Redick hit a couple of three-pointers last night, that game is over in the third quarter.

Alshon Jeffery

Similar to Redick, Alshon has been a bit spotty with individual performances, but his presence on the field draws matchups with the opponent’s best cornerback, which frees up Nelson Agholor for 6 catches, 86 yards, and a touchdown in the season opener.

It just wasn’t the case last year, when Jordan Matthews was the main guy, Carson Wentz was a rookie, and Zach Ertz was good/great but not elite.

For what it’s worth, there’s been no lack of targets for Jeffery. He leads the team with 73, but he’s only caught 34 balls.

Here’s the list:

Jeffery: 73 targets, 34 receptions (46.5%)

Zach Ertz: 64 targets, 43 receptions (67.1%)

Agholor: 42 targets, 29 receptions (69.0%)

Torrey Smith: 30 targets, 15 catches (50.0%)

Wendell Smallwood: 15 targets, 10 receptions (66.6%)

Trey Burton: 14 targets, 11 catches (78.5%)

Darren Sproles: 13 targets, 7 catches (53.8%)

Brent Celek: 11 targets, 7 catches (63.6%)

Mack Hollins: 10 targets, 9 catches (90.0%)

So Jeffery has caught fewer than half of the passes thrown his way. Some have been jump balls that we were hoping he’d snag. Others were squeezed into tighter windows against better corners. Wentz and Jeffery didn’t seem to be on the same page early on, which makes a lot of sense.

I think a good example of their improvement in that area is Jeffery’s first touchdown against the Broncos, which was the run/pass option where Alshon did a nice job to sell the play action and then beat Aqib Talib down the sideline:

Looks easy enough, but the timing element there is deceptively tricky.

Jeffery, to his credit, has been much better in the last two games, snagging 8 balls for 146 yards and 3 touchdowns in the wins against Denver and San Francisco. He only had two scores coming into the 49ers game:

The presence of Ertz and his Pro Bowl-level performances this season might make a WR vs. WR comparison a bit of a muddled point, but when you look around the league, Jeffery’s numbers underperform. There are 26 players who have been targeted more than 65 times this season, and the only one with fewer catches than Jeffery (34) is DeSean Jackson (33 catches on 66 targets). Even then, Jackson has a higher catch rate.

Near the top of the WR1 list is, for instance, Jarvis Landry, who has caught 61 of 96 targets for 472 yards and five touchdowns. That’s with Jay Cutler and Matt Moore throwing the ball, not Wentz. Similarly, DeAndre Hopkins has 58 catches on 108 targets, numbers that will surely decline with Tom Savage under center.

So Jeffery is starting to come around. He’s making some more difficult catches and he continues to draw the toughest assignment, which opens the door for teammates. It’s the same with Redick, who needs to be respected when he’s in the game, whether he’s hitting his shots or not.

Even after a slow start, Jeffery can still match the numbers he put up in 2013 and 2014, but he’ll need to pace out at a different rate in the remaining seven games. He’ll need about 700 yards and 3 to 5 touchdowns to fall right on the median line between those two Chicago seasons. Yardage wise, I just don’t see him averaging 100 per game for the rest of the season, considering the fact that he hasn’t hit that mark once this year.

We’ll see.

Alshon is here on a one-year deal as well, worth $9.5 million, so he’s already 50% of the way through his “prove it” period. Will he warrant a contract extension? Agholor has been much better this season but Torrey Smith hasn’t exactly blown the doors off of defenses, so we’ll see where the Birds go with the wide receiver position.

Again, the positives more than outweigh the negatives when we’re looking at both Alshon Jeffery and JJ Redick. They’ve been really nice additions who have improved the players around them and contributed enough individually. I think fans are just looking for a little bit more.

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