thefundiedata

[thefundiedata]

Family Overview | Michael & Brandon Keilen

Pre-Court: November 2013 Courtship: December 2013 Engagement: April 2015 Marriage: August 2015

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: 624 days

#family overview #the bates #michael & brandon

[thefundiedata]

Family Overview | Jessa & Ben Seewald

Pre-Court: May 2013 Courtship: September 2013 Engagement: August 2014 Marriage: November 2014

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: 538 days

Their Family: Spurgeon Elliot Seewald - 5th November 2015 Henry Wilberforce Seewald - 6th February 2017 Ivy Jane Seewald - 26th May 2019 Fern Elliana Seewald - 18th July 2021 George Augustine Seewald - 19th December 2023

So What's Next? Jessa and Ben are expected to announce Seewald 6 in December 2025 for a birth in May 2026.

#family overview #the duggars #jessa & ben

[thefundiedata]

Family Overview | Jill & Derick Dillard

Pre-Court: August 2013 Courtship: November 2013 Engagement: March 2014 Marriage: June 2014

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: 308 days

Their Family: Israel David Dillard - 6th April 2015 Samuel Scott Dillard - 8th July 2017 Frederick Michael Dillard - 7th July 2022

So What's Next? Jill and Derick recently announced the loss of their daughter, Isla Marie, at four months gestation. If they follow the typical post-loss spacing, they are expected to announce in December 2024 for a birth in June 2025.

#family overview #the duggars #jill & derick

[thefundiedata]

Jill and Derick Dillard had a stillbirth

On Saturday 13th April 2024, Jill and Derick Dillard uploaded an Instagram post and a blog post sharing that they had lost their daughter, Isla Marie Dillard. Jill was 4 months pregnant at the time and they shared Isla's due date had been in August.

I estimate that Jill was likely due towards the end of August. Speculatively, I wonder if Jill and Derick found out this awful news at the 20 week scan.

Any future pregnancies they announce will be considered as part of the post-loss data set.

(this announcement was much earlier than the 2026 prediction by the spreadsheet)

#tw stillbirth #jill & derick #loss announcement

[thefundiedata]

She's choosing between a Kia Telluride and a Hyundai Palisade - neither are available in my country so can't give more info on them than that!

Think I have a different definition of a mid-size car (even a mid-size SUV) over here across the Atlantic but Katie has confirmed she sold her car to upgrade to a bigger one for new baby.

[thefundiedata]

Think I have a different definition of a mid-size car (even a mid-size SUV) over here across the Atlantic but Katie has confirmed she sold her car to upgrade to a bigger one for new baby.

#the bates #that would probably be the largest car on the road here #and good luck getting it down some of the roads

[thefundiedata]

Baby Clark 2 is on the way!

On 13th April 2024, Katie and Travis Clark announced their second pregnancy. They are already parents to Hailey James Clark who was born February 2023.

In a YouTube video, Katie shared that she found out she was pregnant on 5th February.

Early, Late, On Time? This announcement came early. Katie and Travis were predicted to announce in September for a birth in April 2025.

Timing of Pregnancy Announcement: Based on Katie finding out she was pregnant on 5th February, and assuming she was very recently pregnant at that time, I will put the estimated due date as 20th October. She could be due earlier than this, however.

That means this pregnancy announcement came later than the announcement with Hailey. This pregnancy announcement came on Day 90 compared to Day 71 with Hailey. That makes their new average Day 81 (11 weeks, 4 days).

It is assumed Katie will give birth 15 days early as she did with Hailey - 5th October 2024 (Katie's 24th birthday!).

Edit: thanks to eagle eyed messengers who pointed out the ultrasound date shows a due date of 18th October. Predicted birth date moves to 3rd October.

Impact on the Data This is a second pregnancy so will affect the second child multiplier. The predicted spacing between Hailey and Baby 2 is 596 days (Hailey was born 441 days after marriage).

This pregnancy reduces the second child multiplier from 1.78 to 1.76. This impacts Kaylee Rodrigues' predicted second pregnancy (6 days quicker) and the future second child of Lawson Bates (15 days quicker).

Gender Reveal? Katie and Travis did a gender reveal for Hailey on Day 105 of pregnancy. If that holds for this pregnancy, they will reveal the baby's gender on 28th April 2024.

Round-Up: As a round-up: We don't have a definite due date yet for this pregnancy, the spreadsheet predicts 20th October 2024 using the date Katie discovered the pregnancy as a guide. It's likely there will be a gender reveal, possibly later this month. This pregnancy was early and has reduced the second child multiplier.

Baby Three?! With a spacing of 596 days multiplied by the maternal multiplier, Katie and Travis' predicted ongoing pace is 701 days. This would mean Baby 3 arriving in September 2026.

#katie & travis #the bates #pregnancy announcement

[thefundiedata]

Family Overview | Alyssa & John Webster

Pre-Court: March 2013 Courtship: November 2013 Engagement: January 2014 Marriage: May 2014

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: 426 Days

Their Family: Allie Jane Webster - April 2015 Lexi Mae Webster - January 2017 Zoey Joy Webster - March 2018 Maci Jo Webster - February 2021 Rhett Alan Webster - March 2023

So What's Next? Alyssa and John are predicted to announce their sixth pregnancy in March 2025 for a September birth.

#alyssa & john #the bates #family overview

[thefundiedata]

Jill and Derick had a still birth, a daughter Isla Marie

#tw stillbirth

[thefundiedata]

Katie is pregnant, Baby Clark #2 coming this fall

[thefundiedata]

Family Overview | Zach & Whitney Bates

Pre-Court: Unknown Courtship: July 2013 Engagement: September 2013 Marriage: December 2013

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: At least 166 Days

Their Family: Bradley Gilvin Bates - October 2014 Kaci Lynn - June 2016 Khloé Eileen - November 2019 Jadon Carl - June 2021 Lily Jo - August 2023

So What's Next? Zach and Whitney are predicted to announce their sixth pregnancy in August 2025 before a birth in February 2026.

#zach & whitney #the bates #family overview

[thefundiedata]

Family Overview | Erin & Chad Paine

Pre-Court: April 2011 Courtship: December 2012 Engagement: August 2013 Marriage: November 2013

Pre-Marriage Relationship Length: 917 Days

Their Family: Charles Stephen Paine IV "Carson" - May 2015 Brooklyn Elise Paine - August 2016 Everly Hope Paine - March 2018 Holland Grace Paine - November 2019 Finley Marie Paine - January 2022 William Gage Paine - October 2023

So What's Next? Erin and Chad are predicted to announce their seventh pregnancy in July 2025 for a December birth.

#erin & chad #the bates #family overview

[thefundiedata]

Upcoming Events | April-September 2024.

So, I'm going to try and revive fundiedata on this blog as I do have access to the email if needed to contact tumblr support in future. I'll get the family overviews rewritten and will carry on with data analysis, while being extra careful to stay on tumblr's good side.

Just Occurred: Brielle Grace Duggar was born to Jer and Hannah Duggar at some point in February 2024. Miles Kelton Balka was born to Josie and Kelton Balka on 21st February 2024. Trace and Lydia Bates announced they had suffered a miscarriage on 24th February 2024. The baby would have been due right after Ryker's first birthday. Lawson and Tiffany Bates announced their first pregnancy on 5th March 2024, this follows a miscarriage. Nathan and Esther Bates announced their second pregnancy on 21st March 2024.

April 2024 Tori (Bates) Smith is estimated to have her fifth child any day now. The current predicted DOB is 11th April 2024. Justin Duggar is predicted to announce his first child with wife Claire (Spivey) Duggar on 15th April 2024. This is 8 SDs late. Timothy Rodrigues and Heidi Coverett are estimated to get married on 27th April 2024. We haven't seen a wedding date yet for these two.

May 2024 Jackson Bates is predicted to announce his first child with wife Emerson (Wells) Bates on 7th May 2024. Jed Duggar is predicted to announce his third child with wife Kate (Nakatsu) Duggar on 26th May 2024. This is 2 SDs late.

June 2024 Nothing predicted.

July 2024 Nurie (Rodrigues) Keller is expected to have her third baby - a girl - in July. Tentative prediction down for 12th July 2024. Carlin (Bates) Stewart is predicted to announce her third child on 18th July 2024. This is 1 SD late. Lawson Bates is predicted to have his first child with wife Tiffany (Espensen) Bates on 30th July 2024.

August 2024 Nothing predicted.

September 2024 Kaylee (Rodrigues) Hill is predicted to announce her second child with husband Jonathan Hill on 23rd September 2024. This is 2 SDs late. Katie (Bates) Clark is predicted to announce her second child with husband Travis Clark on 29th September 2024.

#upcoming events #the bates #the duggars #the rodrigues

[thefundiedata]

Morning everyone, fundiedata here (if you scroll back on this blog, you’ll see when I started it). I woke up this morning to the delightful message that my tumblr had been terminated. No idea why, not sure I feel like fighting it to try and get it back either.

I’m currently on a trip out of the country and am not going to look into it right now. It’s a real shame that I’ve lost the data I’ve posted but that is what it is. Just wanted to explain why the blog has vanished.

-fundiedata

#the duggars #duggar #the bates #bates #fundie data

[thefundiedata]

Upcoming Events - Bates and Duggars

Completely non-sims related. But I've been plugging the data we've got into my spreadsheet for the Bates and Duggars to see what else we might expect for 2023 and 2024 as I missed the incredible next 6 months DuggarData used to do for us. My data is nowhere near that complex or well sorted but fingers crossed it might scratch an itch!

Who's Late and What For?

Justin and Claire are late for baby 1. The Bates/Duggar average for first child is 352 days after marriage. This would have meant a due date of 13th February 2022.

Jinger and Jeremy are late for baby 3. The spreadsheet had her down for a baby on 13th March 2023. On Jinger's press tour, she said she was happy with her two girls and didn't see a problem with preventing pregnancy.

Lawson and Tiffany are late for baby 1. This was predicted for 29th April 2023.

Jana is (unsurprisingly) late for courtship. My data has her initial courtship down for 29th May 2011. It now has her down for +5 SD - 1st March 2025.

Jason is also late for courtship. He was predicted to enter into a pre-courtship on 22nd June 2022 and a courtship 12th November 2022. This has been moved to 2026 (+1 SD).

So... What's Happening in 2023?

We have two more 2023 babies we know of. Ryker Cruise and William Gage. Ryker is due 26th September 2023. Due to Erin's health conditions, it is likely William will be born early and my spreadsheet is expecting him 7th November 2023.

There is also one 2023 wedding on the cards. Jackson and Emerson are due to wed 14th October 2023.

There are only two 2023 prediction left in my spreadsheet. Jessa and Ben are due for baby 5 on the 17th November 2023. We'll see, there's been no announcement yet.

James is due to start a pre-courtship 7th September 2023 for a courtship on the 28th January 2024.

And What About 2024?

We already know of one 2024 baby - Josie B's third. (Predictor birth date is 19th February 2024) - this baby was late, spreadsheet was expecting baby 3 on the 28th January 2023. Josie has stated she used birth control.

The spreadsheet also expects the following babies:

Joe and Kendra #5 - 21st January 2024

Tori and Bobby #5 - 27th January 2024

Jeremiah and Hannah #2 - 9th August 2024

Jedidiah and Katey #3 - 29th August 2024

Jackson and Emerson #1 - 30th September 2024

Carlin and Evan #3 - 23rd October 2024

Nathan and Esther #2 - 5th December 2024

Katie and Travis aren't predicted until 2025 (25th April) but if I had to pick a non-predicted baby, it would be for these two.

Overall...

So, by the end of 2024 the predictor expects 6 more Grand-duggars for a total of 37. It expects 8 more Grand-bates for a total of 33.

There are a few more potential courtships when we look at family members beginning a pre-courtship 1 SD early - notably Warden (September 2023) and Addallee (April 2024) Bates, as well as Johannah Duggar (December 2023). All of these are due 2025 or later if they stay completely Bates / Duggar average. (Let's avoid more teen brides!)

#the duggars #the bates #josie & kelton #trace & lydia #erin & chad #jackson & emerson