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drdiandralp · 2 years

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2021 Laps: Finished, Led and Fastest

In 2021, laps were run, finished, led and fastest -- but you may be surprised which drivers lead these categories: They're not all Kyle Larson. A note: When I talk about championship contenders below, I'm talking about the top-8 ranked drivers.

Laps Finished

How's that old saw go? To finish first, you must first finish. So let's examine how drivers did this year in terms of completing laps. I show only drivers who ran all 36 races in the graph below.

2021 offered 9200 laps worth of racing. - 27 drivers completed 90% or more of those laps. - 19 drivers completed 95% or more of those laps Looking at individual drivers: - Denny Hamlin completed all but four laps, giving him a 99.96% lap completion rate. - Last year, he was second with 99.8% laps run. - Kevin Harvick was next, with 9150 laps (99.46%). - He was first last year, with 99.97%. - Cheers to Tyler Reddick, who came in third with 9141 laps. - Cheers also to Josh Bilicki who wasn't running for Cup points and still finished 95.43% of the possible laps. - Champion Kyle Larson completed 9000 laps (97.83%) - 2020 Champion Chase Elliott completed 9050 laps (98.37%) Finishing laps is one of those things you have to do to be a champion, but just doing it isn't enough.

Lead Lap Finishes

Let's next look at which drivers finished races on the lead lap.

- Denny Hamlin shines again here. - Hamlin is the only driver with no DNFs this year. He had only one DNF last year. - He finished off the lead lap in only two races (spring Talladega and Nashville). - Kevin Harvick finished 32/36 races (88.9%) on the lead lap - Among championship contenders, Joey Logano had the most DNFs and the fewest lead-lap finishes (26) - Let's shout out Austin Dillon and Chris Buescher. Each finished 27 races on the lead lap - Among full-time drivers, Quin Houff finished the fewest number of races on the lead lap: 5 Looking at the field as a whole: - 25 full-time drivers finished at least half the races on the lead lap - 10 full-time drivers finished at least 3/4 of the races on the lead lap

Laps Led

Much is made of Kyle Larson leading 2581 laps in 2021; however, we must be careful comparing years because there were a different number of possible laps each year. It is, however, undeniable that he spanked the field.

- Denny Hamlin led the second-most number of laps at 1502, roughly 60% of the laps Larson led. - The third highest finisher, Chase Elliott, led only 952 laps (37% of Larson's tally). - MTJ led 865 laps. - It falls off from there. No other drivers led more than 500 laps all season. Laps Led as a Percentage Graphing laps led as percentages really shows Larson's domination of 2021. In the graph below, I haven't labeled any driver percentage below 1%: It's too small to read. The drivers in the second column all led less than 1% of the season's laps -- but they did lead laps.

I tried to use colors from each driver's main sponsor. I really wish so many of them weren't blue! - The top three drivers accounted for 55% of all 2021 laps led - The top four drivers led 64.5% of all 2021 laps. - This year, Larson led 28.2% of all laps - That's just about as many laps as the next two drivers combined. - Last year, Kevin Harvick led the most laps, with 15.5% of all 2020 laps. This year, Harvick led only 2.4% of all laps.

2021 Laps Run in the Top 15

Denny Hamlin may not have won the championship, but there is no denying he had a very competitive year.

- Hamlin ran almost 90% of all laps in the top 15. - That's 4% more than the second place drivers (a tie between Elliott and Larson) - Of championship contenders, Keselowski had the lowest percentage of laps in the top 15 at 74% - Kudos again to Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick for being part of the group of 15 drivers who spent at least 60% of their laps in the top 15. - It was surprising to see Custer and Briscoe, both driving for top-tier teams completing less than 25% of their laps in the top 15. But there's only so much room in the top 15.

Fastest Laps

NASCAR tracks which drivers have the fastest time for each lap. Excluding caution laps and getting-up-to-speed laps (like the first lap or the first lap after a caution), that leaves 7594 laps.

- Again, Kyle Larson leads this category with 1288 out of the 7594 laps counted. - Also again: Denny Hamlin is second, with a little more than half (55%) of the fastest laps that Kyle Larson had. - Truex, Jr. and Elliott were third and fourth - William Byron had 484 fastest laps, but after that, the numbers drop precipitously.- Of championship contenders, Logano had the fewest fastest laps. 2021 Laps: Fastest Laps as a Percentage Again, it's instructive to visualize these numbers as percentages.

- The top 5 drivers account for almost 50% of the fastest laps of the year. - The top 2 drivers account for a little more than 25% of the fastest laps of the year - Hendrick Motorsports had 35% of the fastest laps (with Larson accounting for half that.) - Joe Gibbs Racing had 25.7% of the fastest laps Again, looking at individual drivers: - Kyle Larson had 17% of the fastest laps. - Last year, Harvick led with 10.2% of the fastest laps. - Although Larson led 28.2% of the laps, he only had the fastest lap time 17% of the time. - Denny Hamlin was again second with 9.3% of the fastest laps - Hamlin and Truex, Jr. together ran about the same percentage of fastest laps as Larson.

Analysis

Denny Hamlin did everything right in 2021 -- except win enough. In just about every metric, he's #1 or #2. But NASCAR really succeeded in balancing winning with consistent high performance. That's why Alex Bowman has four wins, but ended up at #14 in the final rankings, while Hamlin and Chase Elliott (with two wins each) end up third and fourth. Kevin Harvick finished 5th -- the exact same place he did last year, when he led most of these metrics. Coming up: Driver Year-in-Reviews.

- Las Vegas: Completion and Lead Lap Finishes - Does Winning the Regular-Season Championship Help Win the Playoffs? - Do Less-Experienced NASCAR Drivers Get More In-Race Penalties? - Can You Really “Run Better than you Finish”? - Stop Counting Lead Changes Read the full article

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drdiandralp · 2 years

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2021: Stage Wins and Points

Kyle Larson dominated the 2021 stage wins and points the same way he dominated overall race wins. Let's see exactly how stages played out in 2021. NASCAR introduced stages in 2017 with an eye to making the middles of races a little more exciting. By most metrics, it's worked. They've done a good job of making stage wins an important part of the march to the Championship. A note: I consider here only stage points, not race-end points. I also exclude the stage points won from the Duels.

Stage Winners

Let's start our review of 2021 stage wins and points by looking at stage-winning drivers. We ran 73 stages in 2021: two in every race and a third for the Coca Cola 600.

- Fourteen different drivers won stages in 2021. That's down from 20 drivers last year. - Kyle Larson dominated with 18 stage wins - Denny Hamlin came in a distant second with 10 stage wins - Kyle Busch had 7 wins - Chase Elliott and Martin Truex, Jr. both had six stage wins. Of Larson's wins, - 11 were stage 2 wins (61%), - 6 were stage 1 wins (33.3%) - He won the only stage 3 of the season. Maximum Stage Wins by a Single Driver Although 18 stage wins in a season is a lot, it's not the record.

In 2017, the first year NASCAR had stages, Martin Truex, Jr. won 19. Kevin Harvick matched that figure in 2018. The last two years, though, the maximum number of stage win by a single driver was 12 and 11. It makes sense that years with multiple dominant drivers produce a smaller share of stage wins any one of them. 2021 Stage Wins by Percent We can also examine this year's stage wins by driver as a fraction of total stage wins.

This makes Kyle Larson's domination of 2021 even clearer: He captured almost 25% of all stage wins. In fact, his stage win percentage is about equal to that of the second and third drivers combined.

Total Stage Points

73 stages means 4,015 stage points, since we have 55 points available per stage. Although some drivers who finished in the top 10 at the end of stages were not eligible for stage points in the Cup series, I included them here for the sake of completeness.

- 35 drivers won stage points. That's compared to 33 drivers who won at least one stage point in 2020. - Kyle Larson earned the most stage points, with a little more than 10% of the total. Last year's top stage-point-earner was Ryan Blaney, with 346 points. - Denny Hamlin earned 399 stage points (9.7%). That's a big improvement over last year, when he earned 293 points. - We drop pretty quickly from there, with Chase Elliott earning 311 (7.6%). For reference, that's almost the same number of stage points Elliott earned last year (310), when he won the Championship. You can only wonder if not starting from the back six times would have changed Elliott's season. - The top 7 drivers account for a little more than half the points. - Kevin Harvick had only 187 stage points this year. Last year, he earned 290. 2021 Stage Points by Position The graph below breaks out the total points into finishes by position. I did this because You can win the same number of points by finishing second once as you can finishing 10th nine times.

Larson's 10 wins gave him a 70-point advantage over Hamlin in terms of winning. They had the same number of second-place stage finishes. That's the 2021 stage wins and points summary.

- Stage Wins and Starting Positions - NASCAR NextGen Wheels: The Scientific Argument for a Single Lug - Reverse Engineering NASCAR Stage Lengths - Pocono: Slightly Shifty - Did Stage Racing Produce More Cautions Because Drivers Raced Harder? Read the full article

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drdiandralp · 3 years

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2021 DNFs: NASCAR by the Numbers

There were 181 DNFs in 2021, down slightly from 2020. Let's dive into who and where the DNFs happened -- and why. As usual, all thanks to racing-reference.info

2021 DNFs by Driver

Let's start by looking at drivers who ran (or intended to run) a full season.

- Quin Houff had the most DNFs at 10. - Anthony Alfredo came in second with 9 DNFs - Ryan Preece was a close third with 8. - The numbers drop a bit after that. - LaJoie and Stenhouse, Jr. tied with 6 - Logano, Byron, Newman,Bowman and Almirola all had 5 DNFs On the positive side - Denny Hamlin was the only driver with no DNFs in 2021. - Harvick, Larson, Truex Jr., Redick, DiBenedetto and Bilicki tied for second with 2 DNFs each out of 36 races. - Honorable mention for Garrett Smithley. He's not on this chart because he only ran 27 races, but he only had one DNF in those 27 races. Of top drivers: - There's a clear correlation between rank and DNFs: Not finishing a race is obviously going to impair your points total; however, finishing doesn't guarantee a higher rank. - Joey Logano had the most DNFs of the top-8 season finishers with 5 - Champion Larson had only 2 DNFs All Drivers Expanding the scope, let's look at all 2021 DNFs. Because drivers ran different numbers of races, I plotted percentage DNF.

Eight drivers who ran only one (or two) races DNFd all races they ran. While some of these drivers are new, there are a couple of veterans on that list as well. But these are really small numbers of races, so there's a lot of chance factored in. Among drivers who ran five or more races - Justin Haley, who will be full time in Cup next year, has a 25.8% DNF rate over 31 races. - Cody Ware ran 32 races and had a 21.5% DNF rate. - For comparison, Quin Houff's DNF rate, which was the highest of full-season drivers, was 27.7%

DNF by Track

Our 181 2021 DNFs give us an average of 4.8 DNFs per race, but -- as you might expect -- 2021 DNFs were much more likely at some tracks than others. You would think superspeedways would be the most likely places for DNFs. You'd be partially right.

While Daytona took the first and second place honors in this category, Talladega was 11th (fall) and 13th (spring). - Daytona, with a total of 32 DNFs accounted for 18.4% of all DNFS in 2021. - Texas came in second with 13 DNFs - Road courses accounted for 38/174 DNFs in 2021, or 21.8%- But the numbers varied a lot. While the Indy road course had 12 DNFs, Watkins Glen only had 1. - Two out of the top five DNF tracks were new to the series this year. (I know we raced in Nashville before, but that was a LOOONG time ago.)

2021 DNF Reasons

It's interesting to examine the reasons for DNFs given that they've changed a lot over the years.

Any slice without a number is less than 1%; dvp=damaged vehicle policy This year, crashes were the main reason for DNFs at 67.4%, If you add in dvp -- cars that were retired because they were damaged and could not be repaired to spec within the time allotted -- accidents and subsequent fallout account for 71.8% of DNFs. Engine failures still account for 11.6% of all DNFs. In absolute numbers, there were 21 engine failures this year.

Historical DNFs

The number of DNFs has change over time, as well as the reasons for those DNFs. Let's look first at the absolute numbers from 2001 to 2021.

Although there have been some variations in car counts over the years, they can't account for the variations in numbers. As I noted earlier this year, the start-and-park phenomenon had big implications for DNFs around 2004 and 2012. DNFs 2001-2021 By Reason Breaking the DNFs down by reason in terms of percent also shows the shift in reasons for DNFs.

You can see from this chart that engine failures have gone down quite a bit as a DNF cause, but that the trend isn't headed for zero. While engine failures are far less likely today than in the past, as long as teams are pushing the limits, there will still be engine failures. Crashes but have been as low as 23% and as high as 75%, but the numbers aren't increasing or decreasing. They're oscillating. DNFs were about as prevalent in 2008 as they were in 2020, but there were a bunch of variations in-between those years. Crashes and engines are the two DNF reasons that are immune to any effect from start-and-parkers, so I'll limit my comments to those. And that's your 2021 DNF report!

- The Reason for Decreasing Cautions - Car Failures and DNFs - Does Qualifying Matter at Talladega? - Does NASCAR Need Practices? - Stage Wins and Starting Positions Read the full article

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drdiandralp · 3 years

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2021 To The Back: NASCAR by the Numbers

Our 2021 to-the-back roundup honors those teams that managed to incur penalties before the green flag. Let's look at whose knuckles NASCAR slapped this year. In 2021, NASCAR inspected 1383 cars and drivers. 125 cars/drivers started at the back of the grid. That's about 9% TTB for the season.

Why Cars Go to the Back

The main reasons sending drivers to the back are inspection failures (46) and unapproved adjustments (44), as shown in the pie chart below. Those two reasons comprise 72% of the cars that had to go to the back.

Only 12.8% of the cars (16) going to the back did it with a backup car. That number is way down from 'normal' years due to the lack of practice and qualifying.

Where are Cars Going to the Back?

The largest number of cars went to the back at superspeedways and road courses -- plus Pocono and Texas.

Who's Going to the Back?

In the graph below, I've shown to the back stats for all drivers, with the top 12 drivers highlighted. Only 10 bars are highlighted because Logano and Harvick never incurred a penalty. Neither did Ricky Stenhouse. Those are the only three full-time drivers who didn't get sent to the back at least once.

- Quin Houff's 00 team was sent to the back seven times this season, the most of any car. - Second on the list is Corey LaJoie, who went to the back six times in his 35 starts - More significant, however, is that Chase Elliott started from the back six times and Kyle Larson five times. Byron was TTB four times and Alex Bowman, the fourth HMS car, was sent to the back only once.

2021 To The Back By Owner

Since most TTBs are due to failing inspection, I wondered which teams were giving NASCAR inspectors the most work. Here's the % of times each owner had their cars sent to the back.

- Kaulig had the highest ttb percentage with 22.2%, but they only ran nine cars in all of 2021. Compared to the 144 cars the major teams each raced, that's a small number of cars. - Among teams running a full season, the team with the highest percentage of to the backs is the late StarCom Racing at 19.4% with one car - They're followed closely by Spire Motorsports at 18% (running two cars) - Among the championship contenders, - Hendrick Motorsports has the highest percentage at 11.1% - SHR and Gibbs tie at 7.6% - Penske had only 3.5% - Cody Ware's team held the record this year with 14 penalties, and they did that running only 32 races. Normalizing that to a full-season 36 races, that would have been almost 16 penalties -- which was the number last year's most-penalized teams (Houff, Hill, LaJoie, Newman) incurred. - The 00 Houff team moves down to second, tied with the Suarez and Bilicki teams. - Among championship contenders, the top penalty incurrers were Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson with 8 penalties each. Hamlin's team only had six penalties last year. Although we're focused on penalties, let's put these 317 violations in perspective. According to my count, there were about 8,568 pit stops in 2021. Of the 317 penalties, 296 happened on pit road. That means teams pulled off 8,272 by-the-books pitstops in 2021. Only 3.45% of the pitstops drew a penalty. Driver vs Crew Penalties Revisited Let's separate out this data into driver and crew. Here's the same plot as above, but this time, I've broken it down into driver/crew and other errors. Also, I've ordered it in rank of driver-incurred penalties.

- Plotting it this way doesn't help Mr. Ware, who leads with 10 driver-incurred penalties - Bubba Wallace, Chastain and McDowell each had 9 driver-incurred penalties - Houff and Briscoe each had 8 - The highest championship contender in driver penalties is Denny Hamlin, with 7. - Kyle Busch and Larson each had 6 driver penalties. - Truex, Jr. -- who has had issues with lots of penalties in the past -- is way down this year with only 2. - Keselowski didn't have a single driver-incurred penalty Focusing on crews: - Aric Almirola's crew made the most mistakes on pit road with 7 - Smithley, Bilicki, Suarez's pit crews each had 6 - Austin Dillon, Lajoie, Elliott, Stenhouse, Jr., and Truex, Jr.'s crews made no pit road errors in 2021. In terms of the crews, you expect the lower-level teams who can't afford high-priced pit magicians to have more penalties. So it's extra strange that a SHR crew would make the most errors.

Where Penalties were Incurred

The impact of road courses on driver penalties can be seen more clearly if we look at the penalties by race.

- Drivers seemed to have a particularly difficult time at the Charlotte Roval, which took the record for penalties with 29 total, 18 of which were for missed chicanes. That's almost 9% of total driver penalties right there. - After the Roval, the next most-penalized race with the Fall Richmond race - Drivers had a lot of problems with speeding on pit road at Martinsville which, because it is curved, makes it one of the most difficult pit roads to traverse.- They also had problems with speeding at Richmond, Phoenix, Kansas, Dover and Nashville - The most tire violations of the year happened at the spring Kansas race

Reflections

All three metrics show a mix of drivers and teams at the top of the charts -- the place no one wants to be. But it's also clear that a small number of lower-tier teams take up a disproportionate amount of NASCAR's time. That is usually how things work, right? But what I see happening with the addition of new teams like Trackhouse & 23XI; the merging of GMS and Richard Petty Motorsports; the move of Kaulig Racing to Cup; and selling charters to new teams is that NASCAR is pushing the bar higher. Some teams happy to just be racing at the Cup level will be displaced by newer teams determined to run for a championship. And that's more than a pipe dream for most of them because of the NextGen car.

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drdiandralp · 3 years

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2021 Accidents: NASCAR by the Numbers

2021 accidents were down relative to the last few years, but a couple familiar names remain atop the list of 'most crashed' drivers.

2021 Accidents Relative to Recent History

Remember that NASCAR only tabulates accidents that cause cautions. If there's an accident at the end of a race, it is not captured in their statistics. There's also a bit of a judgement call in ranking something as a spin or an accident. Accordingly, we had 117 Accidents (and 20 spins) this year. That's lower than the last two years and about the same as 2018. It's still eight more than the minimum number of accidents and spins we had in 2012.

2021 Accidents by Driver

Every driver who ran the full 36-race season had at least one accident. I've highlighted the top-12 ranked drivers in the graph below, so you can see that even the best drivers were not immune from getting hit In 2019, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. racked up a total of 19 accidents to take 1st place in a category no one wants to win. He fell to 6th place in 2020 with only 11 accidents. I'm sorry to say that Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is back on top this year with 17 accidents in the 2021 season.

Only full-time drivers are included in this graph It's useful to look at this same data in terms of percentages -- and to include drivers who ran at least 25 races.

- Stenhouse, Jr's numbers are one accident short of having an average of one accident every other race. - Alfredo and Bowman tied for second place with 15 accidents each, which translates to an average 41.7% accident rate. - Bowman was only involved in 7 accidents last year, so this is a big jump for him. - Alfredo was a rookie in Cup this year, so we have nothing to compare with. - Chase Briscoe, the only other official rookie this year was involved in 11 crashes - Among champion contenders, Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski tied with 12 accidents each. - On the low side:- Logano was only involved in four accidents. - Champion Kyle Larson was involved in six accidents - Harvick had 9 crashes this year, compared with 8 last year There's also a mix of relatively new/rookie drivers with those that have a lot of experience.

2021 Accidents + Spins by Driver

I added spins to the graph below, and highlighted the names of the top 8 drivers.

When we add in spins, Alfredo ties Stenhouse, Jr. with 17 incidents. didn't have any spins. And even if we add the three Newman spins to his 12 accidents, that's still less than the 17 spins Stenhouse, Jr. had. So I'm afraid Ricky wins the title again this year.

2021 Accidents by Race

Let's look at which tracks are most likely to have accidents and spins.

- The spring Martinsville race had the most overall accidents + spins, but more than half of the incidents were spins. - The fall Martinsville race had one fewer accident and spin, but won for total number of accidents with 11, compared to the 6 in the spring race. - After fall Martinsville, the Bristol Dirt Race, Darlington and the final race at Phoenix all tied with spring Martinsville for six accidents each. - There were no accidents at Road America or Watkins Glen this year.

- Richmond Redux: Relative Velocity - GOTD: NASCAR Driver First Names - 2020 NASCAR by Numbers: The Drivers - How Mobil1 Goes in a 'Quaker State' Engine - Bristol: Banking Read the full article

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drdiandralp · 3 years

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2021 Penalties

2021 penalties were down, but let's take a deep dive into how and why, including how the change in schedule impacted penalties.

Penalties in Recent History

NASCAR handed out 317 in-race penalties in 2021. That's a little down from last year's 337 penalties, but continues the downward trend from 2018, when we had 393 penalties. As I've done in the past, I've split the 2021 penalties into driver mistakes and crew mistakes. This year, I had four penalties that had to do with drivers being called to pit road to repair their cars. That didn't really seem like anyone's fault, so I put them into an 'other' category. Driver penalties are the typical driver errors: speeding on pit road, missing the commitment line,etc. Crew penalties are too many crew over the wall, or over the wall too soon.

Drivers are pretty predictable when it comes to penalties: You can count on about 200 driver-incurred in-race penalties each year. The reason for the overall decrease is that crew penalties are down by almost by a factor of 2 since 2018, from 199 to 109. Electronic officiating started back in 2015, so that's not a factor here. I suspect the decrease is because competition is tight and penalties are costly, so a crew member who makes too many mistakes quickly finds him/herself out of the a job. Drivers were responsible for just about 2/3 of all penalties, and the crew 1/3. Last year, drivers were responsible for 59%. 2021 Penalties: Driver-Incurred The biggest driver penalty is (as usual) speeding on pit road, but this penalty comprised a much smaller fraction of driver-incurred penalties than in previous years. In most recent years, speeding on pit road made up 80% of all driver-incurred penalties, but this year, they were only 70% of the 204 total driver penalties.

That difference is because of the six road courses on the schedule this year: 11.3% of all penalties relate to missing chicanes or bus stops. That wasn't such a problem when there were only two road courses on the schedule. Commitment-line violations were about the same percentage as last year. 2021 Penalties: Crew-Incurred Crew members incurred 109 penalties, with the two biggest offenses (crew members over the wall too soon and tire violations) making up a little less than 50%. In third place is too many crew members over the wall.

I included not meeting/maintaining minimum speed as a crew error because it seemed unfair to blame that on the driver. Maybe it should be 'other', but there was only one citation, so it's not a big deal. There's a little bit of a shuffle among the top three components, but together, they accounted for about 68% of all penalties. That's down from 75% of all penalties last year.

Who Got Penalized?

The graph below shows the number of penalties incurred by all drivers who ran at least 25 races and their crews.

- Cody Ware's team held the record this year with 14 penalties, and they did that running only 32 races. Normalizing that to a full-season 36 races, that would have been almost 16 penalties -- which was the number last year's most-penalized teams (Houff, Hill, LaJoie, Newman) incurred. - The 00 Houff team moves down to second, tied with the Suarez and Bilicki teams. - Among championship contenders, the top penalty incurrers were Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson with 8 penalties each. Hamlin's team only had six penalties last year. Although we're focused on penalties, let's put these 317 violations in perspective. According to my count, there were about 8,568 pit stops in 2021. Of the 317 penalties, 296 happened on pit road. That means teams pulled off 8,272 by-the-books pitstops in 2021. Only 3.45% of the pitstops drew a penalty. Driver vs Crew Penalties Revisited Let's separate out this data into driver and crew. Here's the same plot as above, but this time, I've broken it down into driver/crew and other errors. Also, I've ordered it in rank of driver-incurred penalties.

Where Penalties were Incurred

The impact of road courses on driver penalties can be seen more clearly if we look at the penalties by race.

- NASCAR by the Numbers 2020: Penalties - NASCAR's Penalty Box: Uncontrolled Tires - Do Less-Experienced NASCAR Drivers Get More In-Race Penalties? - Daytona 2021 Road Course Deep Dive: Chase Elliott - NASCAR Numbers 2019: Part 2 -- The Drivers Read the full article

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drdiandralp · 3 years

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2021 NASCAR Season Overview: NASCAR by the Numbers

The best thing about the 2021 NASCAR Season Overview is that it looks so much more like 'normal' than last year's overview did. Sure, NASCAR made some big changes, but we got to qualify a few times and the number of drivers is back to where it was in 2019. Parts II and III will take a deep dive into some stats. But first, let's look at the overall season

The Races

NASCAR shook up the schedule like never before, adding road courses to bring us to a total of six, plus Nashville. But that came at the cost of losing Kentucky and Chicago. Where We Raced We raced 26 different tracks this year, which is up from 22 in 2020. 19: The number of states we raced in this year. That's one more than in 2020. In terms of most visited states: - 4: Florida and Virginia (Virginia only had three races last year because we only visited Richmond once.) - 3: Tennessee - thanks to adding Nashville When We Raced 2020 was a bumper year for racing on different days of the week, but we were pretty much back to normal in 2021. 80% of the races happened on Sunday. 14%: The percentage of races run on Saturday

Here are the actual number of races on each day for the last three years. Note that NASCAR did not plan Monday races: Mother Nature made those decisions. Day202120202019Sunday292328Saturday565Monday223Wednesday3Thursday2A table showing the number of races run on different days of the week.

Going the Distance

9 races when longer or shorter than planned. That number was 10 in 2020. Of the 9 races this year: - Overtime: 6 races (+27 laps/59.35 miles) - Rain Shortened: 2 races (-85 laps/236.60 miles) - 1 race ended early due to darkness (-8 laps/8.46 miles) All told, we ran 66 fewer laps than scheduled and 186 fewer miles. The deficit would have been even larger, but we had 13 laps of overtime at the 2.439-mile Indy Grand Prix Circuit. Let's put these numbers in context of the historical laps and miles we've gained/lost due to overtime and/or various types of weather.

We lost more laps to weather in 2021 in any year since 2016. 2021 also marked the most miles lost to weather since 2012. And note that these stats only cover actual race time lost, not delays waiting to race or red flags during a race. 2021 NASCAR Season Overview: How Far we Ran 12,595: The maximum number of miles a full-time driver had the opportunity to drive in 2021. That's down quite a bit from the 13,507 number of 2020, which can be attributed to the large number of road courses, which usually end up being 200-250 miles rather than 400-500 miles. Let's put this in perspective: the Earth is 24,902 miles around at its equator. That means a driver completing most of the laps essentially drove halfway around the Earth. That's not even counting non-points races, practices or qualifying! 450,039 miles: The total miles driven by all drivers in all Cup races. The mean distance between the moon and the earth is 238,855 miles. You could almost drive to the moon and back (Note: last year, all drivers combined drove 497,241 miles) Comparing Actual/Scheduled Distances 2020 Scheduled2020 Actual2020 Difference2021 Scheduled2021 Actual2021 DifferenceLaps Run98909914+2492669200-66Miles Run1343713507+701278012595-185

Who Raced?

68: The number of drivers who turned at least one lap in 2021. That's up from the 54 drivers who turned at least one lap last year 45: How many car numbers were run in 2021 - that's one less than 2020 3: The smallest number of laps any one driver ran in 2021. That was Derrike Cope in the Daytona 500 31: The number of drivers who ran all 36 races. (44.1% of all drivers). Corey LaJoie ran 35/36 races, missing one for COVID. Last year, only 28 drivers ran all 36 races, but two drivers missed races due to positive COVID tests, Ryan Newman missed 3 races after his Daytona 500 crash, and Kyle Larson only ran 4 races. 34: The number of cars with the same driver all season 10: The maximum number of drivers for one car number. That was the #15. Last year, that honor went to the 77, with 9 different drivers. 17: The number of drivers who only ran one race this year. Last year, that number was just 6. We had an average of 38.4 cars per race. That's down almost one full less than the 39.3 cars per race of 2020.

How They Raced

16: The number of distinct winners. Last year, it was 13, which was the same as in 2019. It's pretty close to the average over the last five years. 196: The number of DNFs. There were 1,414 cars entered, which means 13.9% of the cars failed to finish the race. 129 cars were sent to the back of the field. That's about 9%. 211 free passes were awarded, compared with 247 free passes last year. 317: The number of in-race penalties NASCAR assessed. That's down from 337 in 2020. 123: The number of cars sent to the back, mostly for inspection failures and unapproved adjustments.

Margin of Victory (MoV)

4: The number of races ending under caution. Both Daytona races ended under caution, as did COTA and the second Talladega race. That's double the number we had in 2020.

0.077 seconds: The smallest MoV of the season, at second Michigan. (last year, fall Talladega was the narrowest MoV at 0.007 seconds. For reference, the blink of an eye is about a third of a second. 10.051 seconds: The largest MoV, at the Coca Cola 600, where Kyle Larson spanked the field. But in general, margins of victory were larger this year than last year. - 2 races (19.4%) were won with less than a 0.2 second MoV (7 in 2020) - 10 races (47.2%) were won with less than a 0.5 second MoV (17 in 2020) - 16 races (63.8%) were won with less than a 1 second MoV (23 in 2020) Green Flag Passing 109,542: the total number of green-flag passes according to NASCAR's loop stats. Last year, it was 113,379, but if you factor in the smaller number miles we raced this year, there was actually more passing per mile this year than last. In 2021, there were 8.69 passes per mile. In 2020, there were only 8.39 passes per mile. 41,502: The number of quality passes (which means passing a car in the top 15). Quality passes make up 37.9% of all green-flag passes. Below, I break down the green-flag passes per mile by race, separating the bars into quality passes and what I guess have to be called non-quality passes. The numbers are the percent quality passes: i.e. how much racing for position is happening in the top 15.

To absolutely no one's surprise, the biggest number of passes happen at the Talladega and Daytona superspeedways. But after the superspeedways, we have five road courses, spring Vegas and spring Phoenix, all with ten or more green-flag passes per mile. Dover is at the bottom of the rankings, as it was last year. - At the bottom, we have Dover (race 25) with 1.65 passes per mile. Dover was at the bottom of the list last year as well.

Cautions

The next metric we'll look at in the 2021 NASCAR Season Overview is cautions. 259: The number of cautions in 2021. Compare that to 284 in 2020. They're pretty similar when we factor in miles run. This year, we averaged about 2 cautions per 100 miles and last year, we averaged 2.1 cautions per 100 miles Of the 259 cautions this year: - 87 were planned cautions (stage end and announced competition cautions) - 172 were unplanned. As you might guess, most of those (68%) were accidents. Taken together, accidents and spins account for about 80% of all unplanned cautions. 15: The largest number of cautions, which was the number at both Martinsville races. Last year, the spring Bristol race had the most cautions, with 17 4: The lowest number of cautions (Charlotte , Pocono (2nd), Road America, Atlanta, Watkins Glen, Las Vegas (2nd). 1: The lowest number of unplanned cautions: Atlanta, Watkins Gen and Las Vegas tie for the honor. 1,289: The number of yellow-flag laps run. Although we had 1,437 yellow-flag laps last year, because we ran fewer total laps this year, the percentage is about the same as last year: right around 14%

Caution Rates

Because races are different lengths, it's helpful to look at the number of cautions per 100 miles.

The number before the track name is the order of the race in the schedule (1-36) Last year, the Bristol spring race had the highest number of cautions per 100 miles at 6.4. In 2021, the spring Bristol race was on dirt, but it still managed to take top honors, with a caution rate of 7.4 per 100 miles. - Martinsville (race 35 and race 8) - 5.7 - And then a bunch of road courses before we get to the Fall Bristol race. 0.67: The smallest caution rate per 100 miles, during the Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway

Accidents and Spins

Over the years, NASCAR is getting less accident prone. That doesn't mean we don't have accidents, but the number is down. - 117: The number of accidents in 2021. This is down slightly from 125 in 2020. If we factor in miles, we had about one accident every 100 miles both year (0.925 per 100 miles for 2020 and 0.928 per 100 miles for 2021) By Race: Accidents and Spins Per 100 Miles Some races are longer than others, so let's plot the number of accidents and spins per 100 miles.

The Bristol dirt race had 4.4 accidents per 100 miles and 0.74 spins per 100 miles. That's actually not terribly different than the Bristol spring race last year, which was not on dirt. Martinsville gave Bristol a run for its money this year, with the fall race having 4.2 accidents per 100 miles. The spring race had 2.3 accidents and 2.7 spins per 100 miles. This makes the spring Martinsville race the spiniest race of the year. 2: The number of tracks with no accidents (Road America and Watkins Glen)

Number of Cars per Accident

Before we claim that the Bristol Dirt race was the most dangerous track of the 2021 Season Overview, we have to look at how many cars, on average, were involved in each accident.

Interestingly, the Indy road course beat out the superspeedways thanks to two big accidents at the Indy Grand Prix that involved 7 and 9 cars respectively.

DDI

Finally, the Diandra Danger Index is the average number of cars per accident times the number of accidents per 100 miles. This metric basically lets us look at what happens if all races were the same length.

The Bristol Dirt race outdid its nearest competitor by a factor of almost three. If the LA Coliseum is anything like the Bristol dirt race, expect teams to lose some cars there. Then there's Daytona, which is always a minefield. So these results aren't so great for teams struggling to get NextGen cars ready for the start of the year.

More NASCAR by the Numbers Coming

This entry covered the general information, but next blog, I'm going to be delving into the drivers. If you're curious about a statistic, let me know and I'll see what I can do!

- Overview: Las Vegas - NASCAR Numbers 2019: Part 1 - NASCAR by the Numbers, 2020 Edition, Part 1 - Why You Can't Predict Anything Based on the First 10 Races - Analyzing Chase Tracks Read the full article

#blog #SeasonOverview

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drdiandralp · 3 years

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Car Failures and DNFs

Car failures that knock a car out of a race have gone down over time. But not, perhaps, the way you might think.

The Data

We're looking at data from 1980-2021 race 34. I went through all the races and grouped together the reasons for DNFs into some broad categories. Today, a driver who dnfs because of an engine failure is just listed as 'engine'. In the 1980s, there were specific as to what particular part of the engine went. But we're looking at the broad picture, so I needed a smaller number of categories.

Percentage of DNFs

There are three very broad categories NASCAR can choose from when attributing a DNF to a car: the car retired because it was in a crash, because the car quit, or because something happened to the driver. (Some were parked, some quit, some cited fatigue.) Below, I show you the status of all cars from 1980-2021 race #34.

The driver percentages are so small that matplotlib doesn't draw them. The percentage of DNFs has gone mostly down, as you would expect. - In 1980, only about 60% of the drivers were running at finish. - In 1990, we were up to nearly 70% - Today, it's more like 80%-90%. But you'll notice that there are oscillations in the rates after 2000. In other words: I would have expected the RAF rate to either go up slowly or to plateau. (The plateau is because race car drivers are always going to crash.) And, in fact, today's race car drivers crash a little more on average than they did back in the 1980s.

But crashes aren't producing the oscillations. It's the car failures that have changed in way I hadn't expected.

Car Failures

Let's just plot car failures that cause DNFs. I normalized each year to a 36-race season to compensate for running different numbers of races in different years.

In the early 80's, the average number of DNFs in a single race was about 12. Car failures go down steadily from 1980 to about the mid 1990's -- which was the trend I expected to see over the entire time range. But there's a bit of a peak around 2004 and another peak between 2009 and 2013.

Types of Car Failure

As you might guess, engines are far and away the biggest cause of car failures from 1980 to the present day.

Engines

Over the years, we've almost has as many engine failures as we've had crash dnfs. But, of course, they're not spread out equally. Below, I show you the car failures that were classified as engine failures from 1980-2021

A couple interesting things here. - In 1982, there were an equivalent of 289 engine failures. - Over 36 races, that's about 8 engine failures PER RACE. - There was a steep decrease in engine failures from 1980 to the mid 1990's. Since then, the numbers haven't gone down as quickly - We've had 19 engine failures this year!- I went back to double check because I didn't realize it was that many. But it was. - We've already beaten the number for 2019 and 2020. I wondered if perhaps the larger number of engine failures was correlated to new rules about teams needing to use the same engine for multiple race, but I don't think that's it. My reasoning is because I plotted engine failures by owner. Here's 2021.

Top-tier teams and the teams that get their engines from top-tier engine builders make up 5 of the 19 engine failures -- about a quarter of the total. And if you look back over the last half-dozen races, it remains true that the struggling teams suffer the most engine failures. That makes sense, right? Engine building has consolidated and these expert builders have a very low failure rate. While the NextGen car hits the track in 2022, new engines won't be part of the debut. While everyone will have the same car essentially, they won't have the same engines.

Brakes

Let's look at another type of car failure: brakes. This is where things got interesting.

Start and Parkers Start and parkers were teams that ran a bare minimum of laps and then retired. They rarely used more than a set of tires and some didn't even bring pit crews. But they collected enough prize money to do it again next week. I made an attempt to gauge how much of an effect start-and-parkers had by flagging any driver who dnf-ed and - Finished less than 15% of the laps the leader finished - Didn't crash - Wasn't sidelined by the damaged vehicle policy Start-and-Park Stats - The year with the most start-and-park retirements was 2011 with 142. - That's out of a total of 1548 cars, so we're talking about 10% of the field. - Other years with a lot of early retirements: - 2012 (117) - 2010 (69) - 2009 (66) - 2004 (55) The most popular reasons for S&P DNFs are (in order of frequency): - brakes - electrical - overheating - power train - vibration - oil system issues So How Many Brake Failures Did We Really Have? I made the graph again, this time separating out drivers who finished fewer than 15% of the leader's lap total.

In 1985, Darlington, Dover North Wilkesboro and Martinsville seemed to eat brakes really quickly. You'll notice that my algorithm caught some drivers in the 80's and 90's who were definitely not start-and-parkers. Cars were much less reliable in those days. But the ones and twos are nothing compared to the huge numbers in the mid 2010s. There were more start-and-part brake issues than actual brake issues in 2005, 2011 and 2012. BUT: There was still a peak in brake issues in the early 2010s, and a smaller peak around 2004. You can see the same phenomenon in other categories, like overheating, powertrain, electrical and vibrations.

So Car Failures Really Did Increase in the Early 2010s?

Even when we take start-and-park cars into account, there was an increase in car failures in the mid 2010s, plus a slightly smaller increase in the mid 2000s. Why? There are a lot of factors in play, but here's my theory - The number of teams grew in the late 1990s and early 2000s as NASCAR popularity boomed. - Some of those new owners treated NASCAR as an investment. They expected to make a quick buck. - This was before the days of alliances. It was every team for itself. - The workforce was stretched thin as NASCAR expanded. - The 2008 recession forced teams to merge -- and some to shutter entirely. - There were still investors who took advantage of teams' struggles. It worked for some (Roush) and not for others (Evernham). - The recession made it hard to get sponsorship; some mid and lower-tier teams were barely squeaking by. Compare those situations to today. - Numerous companies with one- or two-car teams have given way to a smaller number of top-tier owners with the maximum number of teams. - New teams can buy complete cars and lease top-notch engines from established teams (as long as they have the money) - The playoff scheme puts a premium on reliability. If you're on the bubble coming into Martinsville this weekend, about the last thing you need is for your engine to let go, or your battery die. The penalty for a dnf is much larger than it was pre-chase/pre-playoffs. - The trend I showed above with engines -- that failures happen mostly in the lower-tier teams -- extends to other car parts. But everyone has the same chance of crashing!

Bonus Graph: Crashes vs. Car Failures

If we plot the crashes vs. total car failures on one graph, you can see where the numbers cross over.

- In 1980, you were more than four times more likely to DNF by car failure than by a crash. - In 2000, you were equally likely to DNF by car failure as by a crash - In 2021 (so far), you are about twice as likely to DNF by a crash than a car failure

- Does Qualifying Matter at Talladega? - Does the Driver Who Leads the Most Laps Usually Win? - Kansas Wrap Up: What Caused all the Engine Failures? - The Zen of Brake Bias - Did EFI Make NASCAR Engines More Reliable? Read the full article

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drdiandralp · 3 years

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Fall 2021 Kansas Race Report

Kyle Larson dominates the Fall 2021 Kansas Race Report, but the type of domination was much different than last week at Texas. As always, thanks to racing-reference.info for the stats.

Caution/Lead-O-Gram

As always, we start with the Caution/Lead-O-Gram. Cautions We had seven cautions (3 accidents, 1 spin, 2 stage end, and 1 weather) for a total of 33 laps of caution. 12.4% of the race ran under caution. Note that I didn't show the brief red flag for rain near the start. The number of cautions is pretty consistent with the last three races, at a little less than two cautions per 100 miles. The average number of cautions per 100 miles over the last five Fall Kansas Races is 1.64. Four cars were involved in accidents and 1 in a spin. Remember that these numbers count only cars that cause cautions. Although a couple cars bounced off walls, we don't picked them up in these stats.

Lead Changes and Leading Eight distinct drivers led laps, with six of those being quality leaders. Out of 23 lead changes, 16 qualify as earned -- which means that they weren't because someone else pitted, for example.) Larson led the most laps, followed by Byron, Elliott and Logano.

Lead Lap Finishes at the 2021 Fall Kansas Race

I try to pick out the distinguishing features so I can highlight that which is different. For the 2021 Fall Kansas Race Report, I'm featuring the lead lap finishes. Normally at Kansas, around 50% of the field finishes on the lead lap. This race, it was only 37.5%. there have been (much) lower percentages of drivers finishing on the lead lap, but the last two races were both above 50%.

Graph of the 2021 Fall Kansas Race

I don't really have a great graph to show this, but you gotta feel for Ryan Blaney. After starting second, and eschewing stage points to get track position, the #3 got loose and too him out. Blaney's hit-and-miss at Kansas, but he had everything going for him this time.

Running Away with the Win

Kansas has had some pretty large margins of error over the years, as shown below. But the 3.619 s lead Larson had was the largest MOV in a Fall race since 2010. Greg Biffle won that race by over seven seconds. Even including 2021, the average MOV over the last five fall races is 1.45 seconds.

And that's your 2021 Fall Kansas Race Report.

- 2021 Fall Richmond Race Report - Kansas Speedway - Kansas 2020-33 Race Report - Kansas Wrap Up: What Caused all the Engine Failures? - Talladega Read the full article

#blog #RaceReports

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drdiandralp · 3 years

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Fantasy Racers Should Want Qualifying Back

Fantasy-racing payoffs hinge on race outcomes. But if you are a fantasy racer -- or a serious bettor -- you could make money off qualifying. Not by wagering on it, but by using it as a data source.

Why Qualifying is Necessary to the Sport

COVID forced NASCAR to make a lot of changes, many of which will continue going forward. For example, limiting the number of people and days at the track saves money. One reason NASCAR could do one- and two-day shows was because they eliminated practice at all but new tracks and qualifying almost everywhere. It seems as though NASCAR will restore qualifying (and a little practice time) in 2022. There was some enthusiasm for the 'race what you brung' model: you can't wreck a car before a race if the car isn't on the track before the race. But there are some very strong arguments for qualifying. - Teams need some time to shake out the car. Maybe not three practices and qualifying, but a team needs at least a few laps to find errors in set up (or loose ballast). - New drivers and new driver/crew chief pairings need time to develop a common language about what the car is doing and what it needs. - Even metric qualifying (which is way, way better than NASCAR's first quasi-random draw scheme) is unfair, especially to smaller teams. Without qualifying, a low-ranking team with a fast car still starts in the back. - I've shown it costs the driver a lot in lap time and race time to make it to the front. It's also nearly impossible to win stage 1 points when you start in the back, even if you have the best car - There are advantages to some pit stalls. Without qualifying, the same cars get to enjoy those advantages But drivers and race teams aren't the only ones hampered by lack of qualifying.

Fantasy Racing Benefits from Qualifying

NASCAR's bought big into fantasy racing and sports betting is become legal in more and more states. While I'm sure there are people who would bet on qualifying, qualifying is important to fantasy racers because it's an important piece of data. Racing is one of the hardest sports to bet on. The chances of a star quarterback being knocked out of the game on the first play are pretty low. The chances of a polesitter getting knocked out of a race are much higher. Weather-shortened races can also turn the finishing list upside down.

Case Study: Texas Motor Speedway

Let's take the upcoming race at Texas Motor Speedway as a case study for planning our fantasy racing team. The driver with the best average finish in the last five races (6.2) and the best career average finish (a little over 10) is Kevin Harvick. In the graph below, the red bar shows the last-five-race average and the blue bar is the driver's career average at Texas.

But that's not the only data we have. We can look at each of Harvick's Texas races. He's only got four finishes outside the top 20 in 36 races. And 12 top-5 finishes, including three wins.

But... All of Stewart Hass Racing has struggled this year. Look at Kevin Harvick's rank and finishes as a function of race for 2021.

It's not horrible. I mean, he is ranked 9th. He's led laps at 8 of the 32 races. But he hasn't won a race this year (yet). You're probably not going to pick him to win at Texas, but what are his chances of getting a top 10? A top 5? We haven't had a points race at Texas this year, so we don't even have any data from that to help us. That's where the fantasy racer needs qualifying.

Why Would Qualifying Help?

Because there is a definite correlation between qualifying position and finishing position. It's not a strong enough correlation that you can predict where someone will finish based on where they start. That'd be boring. I plotted qualifying position vs. finishing position for races from 1990-2019 in a bubble graph for all the tracks we run where there were at least 20 races since 1990. Since we're talking Texas, let's look at Texas. Here's a guide to the graph. - The location on the horizontal axis is where each driver qualified. To the left is better. - The vertical-axis location is where each driver finished. In this case, down is better. - The size of the bubble is proportional to how many times it happened.

For example: the driver who qualified first finished first on four occasions. The driver who qualified tenth finished first only once. That's why the bubbles are different sizes. Most of the data are concentrated along a broad swath that goes from the lower left to the upper right. It makes sense, right? Drivers that qualify well tend to finish well. Drivers that qualify in the back often finish toward the back. If everyone started where they finished, all the data would lie on a straight line of slope 1, which I've shown below in red.

There is more data below the line than above it. That's because, almost every race, one or more drivers fail to finish. As far as our polesitters go, one DNF driver came in 32nd, while three finished 37th. (The same number of pole sitters had a DNF as who went on to win the race. I put the DNFs in red on the graph below.

DNFs are one of the elements that makes betting on racing harder than many other sports. When's the last time one baseball team dropped out in the middle of the game? This pattern doesn't just hold for Texas. It holds for most tracks. It's weaker at superspeedways and stronger at other places. Like Michigan.

If you didn't see the streak running lower left to upper right before, you should definitely see it on this graph. Right? But Does It Hold for 2020? Not nearly as well as the pattern holds for the years in which we had qualifying. We're at a disadvantage having only 1-4 races in the COVID era for each track. But COVID races, where qualifying is determined by algorithm, are much less correlated. We know that sometimes P10-P20 teams get a really good car at a track their driver loves. They've got a higher-than-their-average change of finishing well. But without qualifying, they don't have a chance -- and you don't have that information.

Qualifying Doesn't Predict Finishing, But...

I know you'd like to be able to predict who will end up where, but racing is far too random to have a foolproof algorithm. There wouldn't be any fantasy racing if such a thing existed! We can, however, talk percentages. For those drivers who finished the race at Texas: - The polesitter won the race about 11.8% of the time. - 43.3% of the time, drivers starting in the top 5 finished in the top 5. - 53.8% of the drivers starting in the top 10 finished in the top 10. Qualifying gives you valuable information and it's the closest data you can get before the race. It's not just the final order, either. If you can listen in on the driver and crew chief during practice or qualifying, you tell a lot about where each of their heads are that weekend. Is Harvick showing quiet determination? Or is he frustrated and sniping at his team. Television and radio interviews can provide some of the same information -- but the drivers can't say much about how their car is handling if they haven't had a chance to handle it. If we had qualifying this weekend, it would give us some really additional data that would help us weigh how much we want to lean on Kevin Harvick (or any other driver) and this track.

Fantasy Racing Other Tracks

I ran the numbers on all of the tracks for which we had at least 35 races. I show below the frequency of how often a driver qualifying in the top five finishes in the top 5.

Michigan has the lowest rate, at just under 1/3 while Texas has the highest rate at 43.3%. We can do the same thing for the top 10. Now we're looking at around even odds that those drivers who qualify in the top ten finish in the top ten -- even at superspeedways.

By the time we get to top 20...

If someone fails to qualify in the top 20, you might want to think about leaning on them too hard for this race. We don't have that data this season. I sure hope we do next season.

- GOTD: Daytona Pole Speeds 1959-2020 - Texas Race Report - Cookie Cutter Tracks Aren't All the Same - The Myth of the 200-mph "Lift-Off Speed" - Qualifying Matters at Las Vegas Read the full article

#blog #KevinHarvick #TexasMotorSpeedway

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