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thesportssoundoff · 6 years

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“What Happens When The Worst Case Scenario Happens?” A UFC 221 Preview

Joey

February 5th, 2018

Oooof.

You poor dudes out there in Australia. The UFC's plan to finally put on another PPV in Australia felt like a solid enough one; bring your standard Fight Night-ish card with some bigger matchups and some title fights to make it all tie together. The original concept was easy enough to understand. You give Australia Robert Whittaker in a big title main event, find yourself a second title fight and roll with it. Unfortunately as is often the case with the UFC, the best laid plans tend to lead to things falling apart. The second fight (rumored to be Thug Rose vs Tecia Torres) fell apart and Robert Whittaker wound up contracting some kind of a super duper illness which took him out of the fight. In its place we're left with an Australian showcase card without THE big Aussie title fight to be the bow to tie everything together. Shit shit shit. This card isn't anywhere near as bad as some of the other cursed PPVs of 2016 but given what it could've been, it still hurts to see what we've got. Let's try to make the best of it, eh?

Fights: 12

Debuts: 1 (Israel Adesanya)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 1 (Robert Whittaker OUT, Yoel Romero IN vs Luke Rockhold)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 6 (Luke Rockhold, Robert Whittaker, Mark Hunt, Jake Matthews, Jussier Formiga, Ross Pearson)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 3 (Ross Pearson, Mizuto Hirota, Damien Brown)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 7 (Jose Quinoines, Curtis Blaydes, Li Jingliang, Alexander Volkanovski, Jeremy Kennedy, Dong Hyun Kim, Ben Nguyen)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2016 (in the UFC): 17-10-2 Yoel Romero- 1-1 Luke Rockhold- 1-1 Mark Hunt- 2-1-1 Curtis Blaydes- 3-1-1 Tai Tuivasa- 1-0 Cyril Asker- 2-2 Jake Matthews- 2-2 Li Jingliang- 4-0 Tyson Pedro- 2-1 Saparbek Safarov- 0-1

Too High Up- Tai Tuivasa vs Cyril Asker

Come on, man. Come on now. Tai Tuivasa vs Cyril Asker is not a main card fight EVEN on free TV. Cyril Asker has never fought off of Fight Pass and NOW he's on PPV? NOW?! Come on. I get the argument here that Tai Tuivasa at 24 years old has all sort of upside and potential in the UFC's HW division that is starting to get itself a new collection of young big guys. This is a showcase fight----but you shouldn't make people pay 60 bucks for a friggin showcase fight especially when it's got a decent shot of falling apart on ya. Tuivasa vs a better opponent? Sure! Against Cyril Asker?! Nah, man.

Too Low- Jussier Formiga vs Ben Nguyen

Plenty of people will make the argument here for me but yeah, I get it. People don't like flyweights and they're not sold on the division and they hate the champ and etc etc etc. The point is that if you're being honest about divisional relevance and title fight qualifications, this fight is probably far closer to being something of note than any other fight on the main card besides the top two fights. Nguyen was swamped by Louis Smolka but outside of that performance he's been all action and basically all finish in the UFC. Jussier Formiga is a fine step up and an important challenger who tests whether or not somebody is truly ready for the next step up in their careers. Even if it makes some people get all butt hurt, you have to commit to giving the 125ers a chance on bigger shows.

Stat Monitor for 2018:

Debuting Fighters (Current number: 0-4): Israel Adesanya

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 1-2): Yoel Romero

Second Fight (Current number: 2-6): Daichi Abe, Saparbek Safarov, Tai Tuivasa, Rob Wilkinson

Cage Corrosion (Current number: 4-4): Saparbek Safarov

Undefeated Fighters (Current number: 2-6): Israel Adesanya, Tai Tuivasa, Daichi Abe

Twelve Precious Ponderings

1- So given that this fight came about on short notice, how many rounds does the ageless wonder that IS Yoel Romero have in him? 2? 2-3 tops?

2- The most obvious question for me is how will Rockhold handle the athleticism that Romero possesses if it forces him to go backwards? For Rockhold the plan (to me at least) seems obvious; drag Yoel into deep and (Pirates of) dark waters after the 2nd or 3rd round, get him tired and get him down. In theory if he flattens out Romero, he can presumably pound out a tired Romero with torrential ground and pound. Getting there is the problem as Rockhold did not look overly comfortable exchanging on the feet with David Branch who is not exactly the world's best striker. Romero's quick twitch explosive offense is going to be on point in the first and second round while Rockhold's entire path to victory in my estimation is dependent upon his ability to turn those first few rounds into a slow grind en route to an eventual finish. Rockhold hasn't been the same springy athlete he was during his Strikeforce days but he's a hell of a lot stronger than he used to be and his size can drain on folks when he gets clinch happy. At the same time, Romero in the third round has proven to be a pretty damn scary fighter.

3- Do we pencil in the winner of Rockhold/Romero vs Whittaker for sometime in the summer? Robert Whittaker has suggested he expects to be healthy around then and if they cancel UFC 222 as a PPV (a possibility) then maybe the UFC goes back to Australia to try and make up for the lost PPV of March in the Summertime.

4- A lot has been made of the UFC/Mark Hunt relationship and I get it. In all fairness, they gave him a pretty tough match up here. If Curtis Blaydes can replicate what Stipe Miocic did, he's got a good chance to spoil this Aussie partay with Mark Hunt at the helm. Outside of Stipe, Hunt's takedown defense has held up pretty well but he can still be stalled and neutralized against the cage.

5- There's been a better version of Curtis Blaydes each time he takes to the cage even if his striking still remains at times too wild for its own good and his submission game doesn't seem to be developing much. Even if his confidence comes and goes, Blaydes will likely be his best yet vs Mark Hunt. Whether that's good enough to beat Hunt remains the question.

6- You can almost view the final three fights on the main card as the usual progression of Australian prospects:

Tai Tuivasa- "Oh man we've got a new guy! He's Australian and he looks good! Did you see how he finished that last fight?!"

Tyson Pedro- "Okay so he lost but there's no reason to give up on him just yet. Let's give him a wee bit of a step back and see if he can handle that. If he wins then we're back on course!"

Jake Matthews- "Well we're stuck with him so we might as well figure out what to do with him."

7- That Li Jingliang vs Jake Matthews match is pretty damn interesting if we're being honest for a second or two. He's got four straight wins, three by finish, against relatively okay competition. The likes of Zak Ottow and Frank Camacho have proven their worth as exciting middle of the pack type guys so we at least know he can beat average. While I don't know if Jake Matthews is better than average, I do know that stylistically he'll present a few challenges for The Leech. For starters, Li Jingliang's main slip up came against Keita Nakamura. Matthews and Nakamura do share some similarities; primarily in the way that both are heavy grappling types who seem to excel in those gas out fights where everybody is tired. Nakamura is the more seasoned grappler and better at subs (ask The Leech) but Matthews tends to be more active with top control. It's one of those ugly stylistic challenges that Li Jingliang will have to get by if he wants to be able to have a justifiable case at a top 10 spot in the WW division.

8-Who thinks it's a good idea for Teruto Ishihara to drop down to 135 lbs? That seems really reckless?

9- Alexander Volkanovski vs Jeremy Kennedy is one of those fights that's really hard to get excited about even if you acknowledge that it's a pretty fine fight on paper. Both guys are so similar that this has "Stall against the fence" stamped on it. It's a great fight between two unbeaten prospects at 145 lbs BUT it's just tough to muster up any real excitement given what it presents to be on paper.

10- I'm at that weird spot with Ross Pearson where I don't want to see him take any damage and leave the way he's left before but I also don't want to see him to win and potential incur more damage down the road. All of Ross Pearson's fights recently (since the Felder win at least), FEEL the same. The spirit is still willing and he has flashes of moments where he's in control but he just no longer has the athletic quicks and he doesn't respond to strikes the way you feel like he should. He's in that weird Gray Maynard class where the fighter he once was is gone but the fighter he remains is competitive enough to the point where he's always going to believe he's one win away from rediscovering it.

11- Can Israel Adesanya do what Gokhan Saki did and put a jolt in the UFC?

12- Someone sell me on Daichi Abe, por favor.

Must Win

1- Curtis Blaydes

As long as Mark Hunt is suing the UFC, he's probably got a job. Just one of those weird "nature of the biz" type deals. Since November we've seen plenty of prospects get pushed to the back of line by virtue of disappointing losses (Albini to Arlovski, Golm to Johnson, Sherman to Abdurahimov and I suppose if one tried hard enough, Ngannou to Miocic). That leaves Curtis Blaydes as one of the few left standing who has some steam behind him. Blaydes HAS the ability to be a top 10 HW, of that I have no doubt. Because it's the big dude division, he's taking an absurd jump up from Olenik to Mark Hunt in Australia. Good luck, dude.

2- Ben Nguyen

Let's briefly recap some Jussier Formiga stats:

Lost to Dodson- Dodson got a title shot. Lost to Benavidez- Immediate title shot for Jobi Wan. Lost to Cejudo- Cejudo gets a title shot Lost to Ray Borg- Borg gets a title shot.

Beating Formiga is the gateway to title town (or a gateway to getting smoked by Mighty Mouse) and so if Nguyen wants to be join Mark Hunt and Robert Whittaker as proud adopted Aussies fighting for the title, he's gotta pick up the win here.

3- Li Jingliang

I could go for Jake Matthews here as well. With the UFC making significant progress in China, Li Jingliang should in theory be on the come up. He's the best fighter out of China currently and fights in a division where if you haven't fought one of the top 5 guys yet, there's substantial progress to be made.

Five Can't Miss Fights

1- Yoel Romero vs Luke Rockhold

2- Teruto Ishihara vs Jose Quinones

3- Rob Wilkinson vs Israel Adesanyna

4- Dong Hyun Kim vs Damien Brown

5- Ben Nguyen vs Jussier Formiga

#MMA #UFC #UFC 221 #Romero #Rockhold #Hunt #Blaydes

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