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kuiperblog · 1 year

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RRR is about a culture fighting for its right to exist

Since RRR hit Netflix and reached a global audience, I’ve heard many recommendations for the film, all of which take the form of something like, “This movie is crazy! There’s a scene where they attack a palace by unleashing a horde of wild animals, you have to see this movie!” Or “they introduce one of the main characters by showing him wrestling a tiger!”

These sorts of comments did basically nothing to persuade me to check it out. But I finally did check it out, entirely thanks to the recommendation of Jason Pargin, who (on “We Just Watched” with Dave Bell) provided a great explanation of how the movie actually uses spectacle to convey theme, mostly by vocalizing the subtext in one pivotal scene. (What follows is taken from their exchange, lightly paraphrased/edited for readability)

Jason: There's different kinds of spectacle. For example, the thing that RRR is up for an Academy award, is a song that is from a dance number, 60 minutes in, where most American movies have the key pivotal twist or action scene. In RRR, it's a dance-off. If you had that in an American movie, it would be parody: "isn't it wacky that we're gonna stop and dance 60 minutes into the movie? But in RRR, the song that is nominated for an academy award, the version that's up is the original Telugu version, Naatu Naatu, it just means 'dance dance.' It is a scene where the two superhuman heroes, both men undercover, they think they're friends, they're secretly working to do something else; Bheem's trying to get this kidnapped child back, and at this time you think Ram is hunting Bheem.

They go to this big party at the headquarters where the British are, because they have befriended a woman who's part of the British governor’s family, that's their in. They realize where the child is being held. The key is, they're infiltrating, right? So they both have to put on western style suits and attend among all these British people, and they're being treated like crap.

Bheem starts getting bullied by this British guy. We know, from watching the movie to this point, that Bheem could kill this man with three of his fingers. Bheem would not break a sweat breaking this guy's entire body in half. But he can't do that; he's undercover. And his best friend Ram is also undercover; they can't turn this into a fight, and they know it.

Jason: So the evil British guy gives a speech, because they're all dancing, it's a fancy dance for fancy people. He has had a cultured upbringing in the best British schools, and knows all these different dance styles, and starts talking as if, "Why do we care that we're erasing this culture? They don't have a culture. These people just live in mud floor huts, what do they have? What difference does it make if this culture vanishes, if there's nothing to it? They’re savages."

And then Ram starts playing the drums, and walks up and says, "Yeah, I dunno about any of those dances, have you ever heard Naatu, this dance we do?" And then this dance sequence explodes, as spectacle.

It starts as an extremely jaunty tune, the lyrics are like, "come, do this dance!" and it's inviting them. And then the song goes faster and faster and faster, and the dancing becomes more and more frantic, because they are in this dance trying to outlast these British guys who are trying to keep up with them. It's a dance-off, but they are dancing for the right of their culture to keep existing. They are dancing because they're trying to say, "We will outlast you. We can dance longer than you. This is the spirit that you're trying to break. Let us show it to you in the form of dance." It is spectacular. The definition of spectacle.

Dave: It's a violent dance, but just to make sure it's clear, it's a joyful dance. It's fun, it's violently fast and complex, and you look at it like "Geez, that would kill me to try, but the whole time they are smiling. They are having a blast. They get everyone into it at the party. There are people who are genuinely won over by it. Obviously the one British guy isn’t, but it also the idea of, “Not only do we have this, but you f-ing love it.”

Jason: Yes, that’s the key. All these bystanders start cheering for them because, "oh, they're right!" And Bheem and Ram are smiling and happy the entire time, because they have to be. You actually see Ram, part of his dance is trying to show the evil British guy -- again, a man who is in the process of genociding his people -- trying to show him the dance, and smiling at him, giving the thumbs up, like "yeah, now you're doing it, now you're doing it!" because he has to. He can't be aggressive there; he has to blend in, like "oh yeah, we're all buddies here, we're all just friends."

Jason: There's all this subtext, and there's a reason that song got nominated and won the Golden Globe, got nominated for an Academy award, I would bet it will win. ... It is a perfect example of what spectacle can be, in that it is joyful. It is not showing off technical [effects]; it is showing off a bunch of people who had to train for weeks and choreograph for weeks and have been dancers all their lives because you can't be an Indian cinema superstar without being a great dancer and singer and everything else.

#rrr movie #rrr #movies #jason pargin

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rokkam-rocks · 1 year

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OSCARS 23- A GOLD STANDARD FOR INDIAN FILMS

"A hardwork always pay off whatever you do" as the age old saying goes on which is apt even today. Hardwork can be best defined by our dedication to the work that we put in. Academy awards are given to recognise the hard work and dedication shown by the people in cinematic industry all over the world. Our Indians have again proved that they are second to no one and they bagged the best original song in the 2023 Oscars.

That is the RRR movie that made a sensation and a big hu3stle in the internet, Twitter, and other social networking sites. Their favourite being the Natu- Natu song, all we can say is the hard work and dedication that the song composer and the director who have breathed life into making the song look so authentic and lively. As we all know Mr. Rajamouli for his intense passion towards making perfection, It is said that he was the man behind the handiwork of the beautiful song Natu-Natu.

To conclude we can say that Indian films has accomplished a milestone and left no stone unturned in proving to the world. India has won 10 times already, since then Indian films has continuosly been mastering the art to making films to the global standard and bringing life to all the words that make up a story. I belive that India has the potential to rise up and bag more of such relics across the world and make Indians proud

JAI HIND

#oscar #oscar2023 #natunat #rrr movie #movies #tollywood #ss rajamouli

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playermagic23 · 2 months

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Salman Khan kicks off an impromptu jugalbandi with Akon; watch

Salman Khan recently took off to Jamnagar, Gujarat to attend the pre-wedding celebrations of Anant Ambani and Radhika Merchant.

The fever around Anant Ambani and Radhika Merchant fails to die down even after the pre-wedding event ended on Sunday. As videos and photos from the three-day celebration held in Jamnagar, Gujarat continue to take social media by storm, another one that has surfaced features Bollywood superstar Salman Khan and global music star Akon together. Adding to it is the intense jugalbandi between them which has left social media users wanting for more.

Salman Khan, one of the biggest names in the Indian entertainment Industry, who enjoys a large chunk of fan following across the nation owing to his larger-than-life screen presence, and unmatchable swag, dazzled the audiences with his performances at the recently held pre-wedding event of Anant Ambani and Radhika Merchant. The megastar is known for bringing his own unique aura wherever he goes and the latest example of this was seen when he indulged in a fun music session with international singer Akon on Day 3 of the event during the Hashtakshar ceremony. In this musical jugalbandi, they both created a harmonious and energetic fusion of Sukhbir's famous song 'Gal Ban Gayi'. Interestingly Sukbir too was a part of the same event. Later, Salman was also joined by the groom-to-be Anant Ambani on the stage and the trio made the headlines for bringing in unmatched energy together on stage.

In another video, Salman Khan is also seen matching beats with Akon when he was performing with Shah Rukh Khan on ‘Chammak Challo’ wherein several B-town guests joined them to create a viral moment on stage.

Prior to this, on day 2 of the event, Salman Khan also enchanted the audiences by dancing on several of his chartbusters and later, he was also seen dancing on the hookstep of Oscar winning song ‘Naatu Naatu’ with Shah Rukh Khan, Aamir Khan and, of course, the OG RRR star Ram Charan.

#Akon #Anant Ambani #Bollywood #Day 3 #Features #Gal Ban Gayi #Jugalbandi #Music #Performance #Pre Wedding #Radhika Merchant #Salman Khan #Sukhbir #bollywood hungama

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starfriday · 1 year

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*International Superstar Priyanka Chopra Jonas Becomes The First Indian Actor To Rule The Cover Of British Vogue*

Priyanka Chopra Jonas Makes Us Proud Once Again As She Becomes The Only Indian Actor To Rule The Covers Of Over 40 International Magazines & Latest Is The Cover Of British Vogue

Ever since the global icon Priyanka Chopra has set foot in Hollywood, the actress has always made her fellow Indians & India proud in different ways. Fast forward to today, Priyanka is the only actor in Indian cinema who has ruled the cover of over 40 international magazines & the count goes strong. The latest addition to this is the British Vogue cover. We can't take our eyes off how stunning she looks.

The cross-continental queen also made headlines as she hosted an exclusive screening of the Oscar hopeful S. S. Rajamouli's RRR for her fellow academy members in Los Angeles. The film also grabbed the award for the Best Original Song & our Desi girl with pride, honor & wide smile has shared it with her global audience.

The actress who's an inspiration to millions across all age groups & gender also made headlines for kickstarting her 2023 by meeting her fans, clicking lots of selfies & even having quick candid conversations at a recent beauty collaboration.

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jasonblaze72 · 2 years

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#netflix #PrimeVideo #RRR

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blog-cosmosuniverse1 · 3 years

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Dr. Peter McCullough: The State of COVID Treatment

Story at-a-glance Cardiologist, internist and epidemiologist Dr. Peter McCullough discusses why a key aspect of care — early treatment — has been missing from the pandemic With no hope of early treatment, McCullough believes that most people became conditioned to wait for an injection COVID-19 injections are waning in effectiveness and linked to an unacceptable number of serious injuries and deaths McCullough is among a growing number of experts who believe COVID-19 injections are making the pandemic worse; indiscriminate vaccination is driving mutations, as the virus is mutating wildly to evade the injections At 53:40 in the video, you can view McCullough’s early treatment regimen, which initially includes a nutraceutical bundle, progressing to monoclonal antibody therapy, anti-infectives like HCQ or ivermectin, antibiotics, steroids and blood thinners

The video above,1 featuring cardiologist, internist and epidemiologist Dr. Peter McCullough, is packed with sound logic, data and action steps that have the potential to turn the pandemic around — if only more people would listen.Recorded at the Andrews University Village Church in Berrien Springs, Michigan, August 20, 2021, this presentation deserves to be heard, and I urge you to listen to it in its entirety. It will make you question why a key aspect of care — early treatment — has been missing from the pandemic.McCullough, editor of two medical journals who has published 650 peer-reviewed papers, said this has been the first time in his career when he saw medical providers not offering early treatment for a disease.Early COVID Treatment Saves Lives The standard of care for COVID-19 has been to withhold treatment until a person is sick enough to be hospitalized. It typically takes two to three weeks for someone with COVID-19 to get sick enough to be hospitalized, and during that time early treatment can be lifesaving.The rationale was that there have been no large, randomized trials conducted to know which treatments are safe and effective, but as McCullough said, "We can't wait for large randomized trials … Something got in the minds of doctors and nurses and everyone to not treat COVID-19. I couldn't stand it." He and colleagues worked feverishly to figure out a treatment — why didn't national health organizations do so also?"Our government and other governments, and the entire world, has not lifted a finger to reduce the risk of hospitalization and death anywhere," McCullough said, pointing out the irony: "If there was a kid with asthma, would we let the kid wheeze and choke for two weeks before the kid has to go to the hospital? No, we give the child medications. We don't have randomized trials for every single thing that we do."2 McCullough and colleagues realized that there are three major phases to COVID-19. It starts with virus replication, which then triggers inflammation, or a cytokine storm. This, in turn, leads to blood clotting. If enough micro blood clots form in the lungs, a person can't get enough oxygen and dies. It's a complex process, and no single drug is going to work to treat it, which is why McCullough uses a combination of drugs, as is done to treat HIV, staph and other infections.Only about 6% of doctors' decisions in cardiology are based on randomized trials. "Medicine is an art and a science, it takes judgment. What was happening is, I think out of global fear, no judgement was happening," McCullough said,3 referring to doctors' refusal to treat COVID-19 patients early on in the disease process.Doctors Threatened for Treating COVID-19 Around the world, the unthinkable is happening: Doctors are being threatened with loss of their license or even prison for trying to help their patients. French doctor Didier Raoult suggested, early on, putting up a tent to try to treat covid-19 patients. He was put on house arrest. He has promoted the use of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), which initially was available over the counter — until France made it prescription only.4In Australia, if a doctor attempts to treat a COVID-19 patient with HCQ, they could be put in prison. "Since when does a doctor get put in prison to try to help a patient with a simple generic drug?" McCullough said. In South Africa, he added, a doctor was put in prison for prescribing ivermectin.In August 2020, McCullough's landmark paper "Pathophysiological Basis and Rationale for Early Outpatient Treatment of SARS-CoV-2 Infection" was published online in the American Journal of Medicine.5The follow-up paper is titled "Multifaceted Highly Targeted Sequential Multidrug Treatment of Early Ambulatory High-Risk SARS-CoV-2 Infection (COVID-19)" and was published in Reviews in Cardiovascular Medicine in December 2020.6 It became the basis for the home treatment guide.While some physician organizations have stepped up and are treating COVID-19 patients, "The ivory tower today still is not treating

patients. The party line in my health system is, do not treat a COVID-19 patient as an outpatient. Wait for them to get sick enough to be admitted. Because my health system … follows the National Institutes of Health or the Centers for Disease Control, period." Conditioned to Wait for an Injection With no hope of early treatment, McCullough believes that most people became conditioned to wait for an injection. "We became conditioned, after about May or so, to wear a mask, wait in isolation and be saved by the vaccine. And wait for the vaccine. And all we could hear about is the vaccine."The injections were developed, but they're different than any prior vaccines and have been losing effectiveness while causing an unacceptable number of serious injuries and deaths. For comparison, in 1976, a fast-tracked injection program against swine flu was halted after an estimated 25 to 32 deaths.7According to McCullough in the video, if a new drug comes on the market and five deaths occur, the standard is to issue a black box warning stating the medication may cause death. With 50 deaths, the product is pulled from the market, he says. Now consider this: The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) database showed that — for all vaccines combined before 2020 — there were about 158 total deaths reported per year.By January 22, 2021, there were already 182 deaths reported for COVID-19 injections, with just 27.1 million people vaccinated. This was more than enough to reach the mortality signal of concern to stop the program, McCullough said."We've already crossed the line of concern January 22. And if there was a data safety monitoring board — I know, because I do this work — we would have had an emergency meeting and said, wait a minute, people are dying after the vaccine. We've got to figure out why."8It's standard to have an external critical event committee, an external data safety monitoring board and a human ethics committee for large clinical trials — such as the mass COVID-19 injection program, but these were not put into place."This is something we've never seen in human medicine — a new product introduced and just going full-steam ahead with no check on why people are dying after the vaccine," McCullough said. On two occasions, the CDC and FDA — in March and in June — reviewed the data and said none of the deaths are related to the vaccines. "I think this is malfeasance," he stated.Fast-forward to July 30, 2021, and VAERS data showed 12,366 Americans have died after a COVID0-19 injection.9 In an analysis of COVID-19 vaccine death reports from VAERS, researchers found that 86% of the time, nothing else could have caused the death, and it appears the vaccine was the cause.10The Spike Protein Is Dangerous Your body recognizes the spike protein in COVID-19 jabs as foreign, so it begins to manufacture antibodies to protect you against COVID-19, or so the theory goes. But there's a problem. The spike protein itself is dangerous and known to circulate in your body at least for weeks and more likely months11 — perhaps much longer — after the COVID jab.In your cells, the spike protein damages blood vessels and can lead to the development of blood clots.12 It can go into your brain, adrenal glands, ovaries, heart, skeletal muscles and nerves, causing inflammation, scarring and damage in organs over time. McCullough also believes that the spike protein is present in donated blood, and they've notified the Red Cross and the American Association of Blood Banking.Messenger RNA (mRNA) platforms have been under study for years, in most cases being designed to replace a defective gene, which could potentially be used for cancer or heart failure treatment, for example.In November 2020, however, Pfizer, in a joint venture with Germany-based BioNTech, announced that their mRNA-based injection was "more than 90% effective" in a Phase 3 trial.13 This does not mean that 90% of people who get injected will be protected from COVID-19, as it's based on relative risk reduction (RRR).The absolute

risk reduction (ARR) for the jab is less than 1%. "Although the RRR considers only participants who could benefit from the jab, the absolute risk reduction (ARR), which is the difference between attack rates with and without a jab, considers the whole population. ARRs tend to be ignored because they give a much less impressive effect size than RRRs," researchers wrote in The Lancet Microbe in April 2021.14McCullough believes the mass injection campaign is an incredible violation of human ethics, in part because no one should be pressured, coerced or threatened into using an investigational product.No attempts have been made to present or mitigate risks to the public, such as giving it only to people who really need it — not to low risk groups like children and young people and those who are naturally immune to COVID-19 due to prior infection. "I think this is the most disturbing thing," he said.The Injections Don't Stop COVID-19, Can Be Deadly The CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) posted online July 30, 2021, details an outbreak of COVID-19 that occurred in Barnstable County, Massachusetts — 74% of the cases occurred in fully vaccinated people.15Indiscriminate vaccination is driving mutations, as the virus is mutating wildly to evade the injections. Their effectiveness, too, is rapidly waning. A study published in medRxiv, using data from the Mayo Clinic Health System, revealed that during periods of Alpha and Delta variant prevalence, Moderna's injection was 76% effective while Pfizer's effectiveness was only 42%.16A little-known fact is that Moderna's jab has three times the dose of Pfizer's, but, curiously, health officials aren't even discussing this or giving the public updates on which of the three injections work "best." The narrative is simple and straightforward — get an injection, any injection.Yet, as McCullough noted, the virus has mutated, and the vaccines aren't working the way health officials had hoped: "The vaccines don't stop COVID-19, at least not completely, and they're not a shield against mortality."17Similar to VAERS, the U.K. maintains a "Yellow Card" reporting site to report adverse effects to vaccines and medications.18Tess Lawrie, whose company The Evidence-Based Medicine Consultancy has worked with the World Health Organization, analyzed U.K. Yellow Card data and concluded that there's more than enough evidence to pull the injections from the market because they're not safe for human use. The report stated:19"It is now apparent that these products in the blood stream are toxic to humans. An immediate halt to the vaccination programme is required whilst a full and independent safety analysis is undertaken to investigate the full extent of the harms, which the UK Yellow Card data suggest include thromboembolism, multisystem inflammatory disease, immune suppression, autoimmunity and anaphylaxis, as well as Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE)."Early Treatment Is Crucial McCullough is trying to get the word out about the importance of early treatment of COVID-19. Early ambulatory therapy with a sequenced-multidrug regimen is supported by available sources of evidence and has a positive benefit-to-risk profile to reduce the risk of hospitalization and death.At 53:40 in the video, you can view McCullough's early treatment regimen, which initially includes a nutraceutical bundle. While you're recovering at home, open your windows and get plenty of fresh air and ventilation in your home.If symptoms persist or worsen, he recommends calling your doctor and demanding monoclonal antibody therapy. The treatment progresses to include anti-infectives like HCQ or ivermectin, antibiotics, steroids and blood thinners.If your doctor refuses to treat COVID-19 in the early stages, find a new one and/or visit a telemedicine clinic that will help, as "the prehospital phase is the time of therapeutic opportunity."📷McCullough is among a growing number of experts who believe COVID-19 injections are making the pandemic worse. They "have an unfavorable

safety profile and are not clinically effective, thus they cannot be generally supported in clinical practice at this time."Logically, this is clear, but McCullough believes we're dealing with a mass psychosis that is preventing people from seeing the light. "The whole world is in a trance," he said, adding:20"Things are getting disturbingly out of control and it's in the context of the virus. It is clear … we are in a very special time in the history of mankind. Whatever is going on, it is the entire world … every human being in the world. It appears to have a program.The program … is happening to promote as much fear, isolation, suffering, hospitalization and death in order to get a needle in every arm, at all costs. That is what's going on, and no one in this room can disagree."

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patriciajaggernauth · 5 years

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This post is dedicated to all of my friends/celebrities and global figures who have graced me with their kindness, love, support & presence throughout my career!!🙌🏽 This post in particular goes out to my friend, International music artist @duttypaul who was a guest on my talkshow, #ThePatriciaJShow! RRR!!!🎵🎶 This moment will go down in my career history as one of the greatest yet and I’m so excited with all that is to come!!🙌🏽🌟✨🎤💁🏽‍♀️😉 #staytuned ••• ••• •Watch “The Patricia J Show” online NOW: www.patriciajtv.com •Follow me on Snapchat: 👻PATRICIAJTV👻 •Follow me on Twitter: 🐥@Patricia_J ••• ••• #media #broadcast #tv #web #mainstream #satellite #personality #broadcast #emmy #international #award #winner #interactive #inspiration #breakingdownbarriers #elevate #winner #pjglamgirl #glam #glamgirl #glamlife #PatriciaJaggernauth #excellence #blackexcellence #bellmedia #bellfibe #bellfibetv1 (at Toronto, Ontario) https://www.instagram.com/patricia_j/p/Bv4TKNIn0-4/?utm_source=ig_tumblr_share&igshid=1sgwvc9fcg9u7

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phgq · 4 years

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Nomura eyes add'l 75 bps cut in BSP rates this '20

#PHnews: Nomura eyes add'l 75 bps cut in BSP rates this '20

MANILA – Nomura forecasts another 75-basis-point reduction in the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) key policy rates this 2020 on back of the need to help lift domestic growth from another global economic crisis.

In a report, the financial services group forecasts the central bank to “likely remain active in providing support measures.”

“We pencil in an additional 75bp in policy rate cuts, taking the policy rate to a new record low of 2.5 percent and another 200bp in cuts to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), taking it to 10 percent. All these are likely to be delivered in Q2 (second quarter) given the rapidly deteriorating growth outlook,” it said.

To date, the BSP’s policy-making Monetary Board (MB) has reduced the central bank’s key policy rates by a total of 75 basis points and universal and commercial banks’ (U/KBs) reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 200 basis points.

It has also allowed the central bank to enter a repurchase agreement with the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) for a PHP300-billion debt paper sale that has a maximum repayment period of six months.

The RRR cut, which took effect Monday (March 30), is just half of the 400 basis points reduction that the MB authorized for this year.

Nomura projects additional support from the BSP as it forecasts as much as -1.9 percent contraction in domestic growth this year due to the combination of domestic and external factors on account of the global pandemic.

Under its base case scenario, the report forecasts a 1.6-percent output, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), this year.

This growth print is lower than the 5.9-percent expansion of the domestic economy last year and the government’s 6.5-7.5 percent target for the year.

“Unlike in 2009, the quarterly trajectory in our forecast implies the economy goes into technical recession by Q2,” it said.

The report further said this forecast reflects the big deceleration in global growth, particularly of the country’s major trading partners like China, the US, and Europe.

Slower growth from these three areas is also seen to hurt exports growth as well as the inflows from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), which is a major growth driver for more than a decade now.

It said weaker remittance growth will hit domestic consumption, which has about 68 percent share on domestic output.

The report added the enhanced community quarantine in mainland Luzon, which took effect since March 17 and will last until April 12, will greatly hurt economic activity since Luzon accounts for about 70 percent of the country’s GDP. (PNA)

***

References:

* Philippine News Agency. "Nomura eyes add'l 75 bps cut in BSP rates this '20." Philippine News Agency. https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1098286 (accessed March 31, 2020 at 05:28AM UTC+14).

* Philippine News Agency. "Nomura eyes add'l 75 bps cut in BSP rates this '20." Archive Today. https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1098286 (archived).

#Philippines #News #Filipino #Pinoy #Tourism #Politics #Culture #Editorial #Environment #Society #History

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cozyscozystumbler · 1 year

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owofonfopfm · 5 years

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NTR New Look From RRR Movie Goes Viral | Mojo Masti | MOJO TV Subscribe MojoTV : https://goo.gl/qB2KKv Subscribe to our channel MOJOTVLive ➱ https://www.youtube.com/mojotvlive Subscribe to our channel MOJO Filmnagar ➱ https://www.youtube.com/mojofilmnagar Visit our website ➱ https://www.mojotv.com Like us on Facebook ➱ https://www.facebook.com/mojotvchannel Follow us on Twitter ➱ https://twitter.com/mojotvchannel Follow us on Instagram ➱ https://www.instagram.com/mojotvchannel RealMOJO ➱ https://mojotv.com/upload-news (Now you can directly upload the news) MOJO TV, India's First Mobile Generation Full-Fledged Satellite News Channel is THE next generation of news! It is India’s First MOBILE.NEWS.REVOLUTION. MOJO TV redefines the world of news. MOJO TV delivers to the sophisticated audience, local and global news content on a real-time basis. It is no longer about Breaking News, it is about changing the Breaking News Paradigm. MOJO TV communication accelerates news collection, curation and delivery to the urban, suave and upwardly mobile audience, by delivering the right message at the right place, at the right time. © 2018 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED - MEDIA NXT INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED

#https://youtu.be/nQSbj06U3jk

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foursproutwealth-blog · 6 years

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Why The Soaring Dollar Will Lead To An "Explosive" Market Repricing: A Flow Chart

New Post has been published on http://foursprout.com/wealth/why-the-soaring-dollar-will-lead-to-an-explosive-market-repricing-a-flow-chart/

Why The Soaring Dollar Will Lead To An "Explosive" Market Repricing: A Flow Chart

Something curious took place one month ago when the PBOC announced on April 17 that it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 1% to ease financial conditions: it broke what until then had been a rangebound market for both the US Dollar and the US 10Y Treasury, sending both the dollar index and 10Y yields soaring…

… which led to an immediate tightening in financial conditions both domestically and around the globe, and which has – at least initially – manifested itself in a sharp repricing of emerging market risk, resulting in a plunge EM currencies, bonds and stocks.

Adding to the market response, this violent move took place at the same time as geopolitical fears about Iran oil exports amid concerns about a new war in the middle east and Trump’s nuclear deal pullout, sent oil soaring – with Brent rising above $80 this week for the first time since 2014 – a move which is counterintuitive in the context of the sharply stronger dollar, and which has resulted in even tighter financial conditions across the globe, but espetially for emerging market importers of oil.

Meanwhile, all this is playing out in the context of a world where the Fed continues to shrink its balance sheet – a public sector “public Quantitative Tightening (QT)” – further tightening monetary conditions (i.e., shrinking the global dollar supply amid growing demand), even as high grade US corporate bond issuance has dropped off a cliff for cash-rich companies which now opt to repatriate cash instead of issuing domestic bonds, with the resulting private sector deleveraging, or “private sector QT”, further exacerbating tighter monetary conditions and the growing dollar shortage (resulting in an even higher dollar).

And while the latest incarnation of the dollar’s “impossible trilemma” – rising dollar, rising oil, rising yields (not to be confused with its more conventional Chinese variant) makes a short, if perplexing appearance, ultimately it’s all about the value of the dollar, and its impact on downstream assets and volatility.

This is the point made by Deutsche Bank’s derivatives expert Aleksandar Kocic, who in his latest report writes that in the context to the Fed’s normalization and monetary policy fine tuning, the “USD is emerging as the key variable — it presents a compact summary of the underlying macro risks that could destabilize the current Fed path.” In other words, the last thing the Fed wants right now as it accelerates its balance sheet normalization, is a sharp spike in the dollar. And yet, that’s precisely what is happening. Kocic explains:

A strong USD corresponds to generally hawkish Fed in an environment where the US is recovering fast while the rest of the globe is still too slow or recessionary, or that the Fed is pushing rates above the neutral and causing excessive tightening of financial conditions and potentially triggering recession. A weak USD path, on the other hand, can materialize either as an inflation or credit (twin deficits) risk, a troubling possibility to which there is no adequate policy response.

For Kocic, the relative strength of the dollar is the exogenous event that could awake markets from their peaceful slumber, resulting in a violent reassessment of monetary conditions as the Fed quietly undoes the biggest monetary experiment in history, or as he puts it, “although unwind of stimulus and Fed exit continue without disrupting the markets, the underlying stability remains local, threatened potentially by the tail risk.”

For now, the DB strategist notes, “the current market configuration appears to be cooperating with the Fed’s efforts in either scenario” and “market positioning and flows are likely to cause offsetting pressure to each macro risk and therefore help stability of the system.”

In particular, strong USD, which is bullish for bonds, in terms of global sponsorship, is also bearish for EM currencies and reserve managers there are likely to defend local currencies by selling US assets, which goes against macro. Similarly, their response to weaker USD would stabilize bear steepeners on the back of defending their exports through stabilization of EM currencies and support for the US long end.

The bigger problem, one discussed by Kocic previously, and which also takes the shape of the yield curve in consideration, is that with every passing day of normalization manifesting itself in bear flatteners, the market gets closer to the tipping point of duration decrease in which a rotation from risk assets into the short-end of the curve threatens a forced “price discovery” of the new “Fed put” (which Kocic recently calculated was in the 2,300-2,400 range).

So in this context of a creeping bear flattener, Kocic observes that together with the stronger USD, these two discrete trends have a potential to create more volatility and discomfort across all market sectors than bear steepeners if they both remain localized and do not trigger tail risk.

How does this look schematically? Luckily, the Deutsche Banker has come up with a handy flowchart showing the next steps in how the stronger dollar could lead to an “explosive” move in not only the front end of the curve, but across all markets:

Causality chain of strong USD and its potential knock-on effect is shown in the chart. We start at the lower left corner. Fed hikes and strong USD open up the EM dilemma: Facing the outflows or defending the currency at expense of stifling the growth. This implies both, more volatility and potential sell off in EM, and bearish pressure on the long end of the UST that would offset the underlying bid for US bonds (strong USD is bullish). Turbulence in EM could have a knock-on effect on risk assets in the US.

Why is the above critical? Because if the cycle were to play out, it would result in the same set of conditions which led to a global bear market back in 2015 in the aftermath of China’s devaluation (odd, there’s China again precipitating a global market crisis):

An example is the 2015 episode where asset managers faced redemptions due to EM losses and had to sell the best performing assets (US equities) to cover those costs. This means more turbulence in developed markets and possible tightening of financial conditions, which could question the strength of the USD and possibly push Fed to take a pause.

But the real punchline is just how trapped the Fed now is, because should Powell “relent” and hint that the Fed may take a break in order to spare EMs and stocks, well the result would be an avalanche of short covering in the Eurodollar market, one which would lead to an even more dramatic, or as Deutsche calls it “explosive” move in the short end:

Given record shorts on the Eurodollar curve (Figure), Fed pause is likely to trigger unwind of these position which could be explosive and the front end of the curve could rally hard.

The punchline: the dollar surge, catalyzed by the April 17 PBOC RRR cut, has launched a feedback loop which, very much like the Chinese 2015 devaluation, culminates in one of two possible unpleasant – for the Fed – outcomes: a collapse in EMs should dollar strength not be arrested, which then morphs into a broad-based liquidation of all risk assets (the most likely result of this is Fed intervention, in the form of sharp rate cuts and/or more QE) or if the Fed verbally relents again, as it did in 2016 with the Shanghai Accord, and suggests that financial conditions are now too tight, it threatens to crush the biggest ED spec short position ever, leading to trillions in paper losses, and an unprecedented collapse in the short end:

The EPFR data reflecting the ETF and Mutual Funds Flows show continued outflows from the emerging markets and inflows into the short end of the UST curve, which is only increasing the stress in this sector. So, although we should see continued stability at the long end of the curve due to offsetting pressures between macro and flows, a slow grind of the front end, if persists, could morph into a volatile whipsaw. Further strength in the USD and the front end sell off on the back of more hawkish Fed could be potentially bearish for risk assets and act as a trigger for rates reversal.

In short, while the Fed has found itself trapped before, it was only the recent spike in the dollar (thanks China) that has forced the Fed to act, with either decision – either further hawkishness or a dovish relent – leading to major market pain. And the longer the Fed delays making the key decision, the more painful the outcome will eventually be.

#Wealth

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jasonblaze72 · 2 years

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#netflix #PrimeVideo #RRR

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blog-cosmosuniverse1 · 3 years

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Dr. Peter McCullough: The State of COVID Treatment

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