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islesblogger · 5 years

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5 Questions For The Islanders as 2019-20 Camp Opens

1. How ready are Cal Clutterbuck and Andrew Ladd?

According to reports both Clutterbuck and Ladd are skating and should be ready to go at some point early in the season. Their health, and ability to contribute will answer a multitude of underlying questions. The Islanders’ roster of forwards are a series of question marks as a whole, but these two will go a long way to answer most of them. They will determine a big portion of the roster, the salary cap management, and the style of play for the third and fourth lines.

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Andrew Ladd could be a big part of a third line centered by Derek Brassard. He could also replace Matt Martin in some versions of a bottom six rotation. Other options for Ladd would include some role in the top 6, on the second PP unit or on Long Term Injured Reserve. It appears that even after camp Ladd’s future will be evaluated on a daily basis.

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Cal Clutterbuck has been a tireless contributor to The Best Fourth Line In Hockey. He does all the things you want a bottom six forward to do. He kills penalties, he isn’t afraid to play in front of the opponents well guarded net, he gets pucks deep, he finishes his checks, and he shoots the puck at every opportunity.

Cal’s style of play definitely takes its toll, and he is definitely due for a regression in production. I don’t see him playing more than 50 games this year, but we hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

I think both will be managed into limited use this year and will be factors in the usage of Michael Dal Colle, Thomas Kuhnhackl and Tanner Fritz. I fully expect both to be either on the injured reserve or in rehab assignments early so the Islanders can get an extended look at multiple prospects.

2. Who gets waived and when?

The Islanders currently have 26+ non waiver exempt players on the roster, and the NHL only allows 23 on the active roster. Even if Ladd and Clutterbuck start the season off the active roster that would leave more than four non waiver exempt, and a few waiver exempt players competing for possibly 3 spots.

This is the way I see the current roster

John Palmieri | Islesblogger

The most likely to be on the waiver wire is Ross Johnston, with the competition broadening to Dal Colle, Fritz, Ho-Sang and Kuhnhackl as Ladd and/or Clutterbuck returns. There are also the outside chances of Noah Dobson and Oliver Wahlstrom winning spots and widening the field even more. They are both waiver exempt, but Dobson would have to go back to the QMJHL.

3. What will the third line look like?

Last year the most common version of the third line (or maybe more accurately the 3A line) was Val Filppula between Beauvillier and Komarov. Between free agency, promotions, injuries and demotions there is a good possibility that none of those players will be on the third line to start the season.

Ladd is probably the best LW after Lee and Beauvillier when healthy. But I don’t expect that to be often, at least not at 100%. So there will be some competition between Dal Colle and Kuhnhackl early on. Kuhnhackl won that battle for a second line role in the playoffs, mostly because of experience and the ability to kill penalties. I expect Dal Colle to continue his evolution into a solid middle six forward. This will be something to watch.

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Derick Brassard was signed expressly to address this center position. Over the course of the season he may find some pressure from the AHL in Otto Koivula and Mason Jobst, but he will most likely start the season as C3.

The biggest of the question marks will be at RW. I feel there are five candidates for this spot. Early on, the two Josh’s may battle for the RW spot with Lee and Nelson with the loser working on Brassard’s right side. Bailey isn’t going anywhere, but if Ho-Sang can’t win the second line spot he falls into a deeper competition for the two bottom six RW roles. He does not kill penalties, so he has to win the third line spot to stay on the 23. He is not waiver exempt, so this could mean the end of his Islander career.

Clutterbuck will be competing for this role as well, if and when he’s healthy. Tanner Fritz who can kill penalties and take RH draws is also a candidate. I feel that Komarov will eventually be part of a more defensive fourth line, but he, as well will be vying for the spot.

To start the season I see Bailey playing with Nelson, Ho-Sang with Brassard, Komarov with Cizikas and Clutterbuck’s time managed on IR or in Bridgeport on rehab.

4. How will they manage Noah Dobson?

By all accounts Noah Dobson is ready for the NHL. The bigger question is, are the Islanders ready for Noah Dobson?

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Noah finished up a tremendous junior season with his second straight Memorial Cup victory. In the playoffs he seemed to be on the ice more than the goalies, second only to the paint. There is only one thing holding him back from starting his NHL career. Competition.

Nothing Left to Learn in Junior

Dobson has had a great Canadian junior hockey career. He’s one of the better 19 year old defensive prospects in North America. His competition is not only the three right handed defensemen who patrolled the blue line for the Islanders last year, but the NHL CBA.

Noah would probably be a better fourth right handed option than Grant Hutton, and maybe even a better eighth defenseman than Sebastian Aho, who already has some NHL experience. The problem is he is also battling the terms of his Entry Level Contract. At 19, the Islanders can slide the start of his three year ELC to his 20YO season if he plays less than 10 games in the NHL.

Part-time Player/Full-time Price

For Noah to win a full time NHL job one of the top three right side defenders would have to go down with an injury, or they would need to move one of their seven current NHL defensemen in a deal.

It would be a huge risk to waste an ELC year for a part time player, especially when there are capable NHL veterans who can do the job with little or no risk at all. I see Dobson staying with the team for 5-8 weeks, and playing 5-9 games, and then being sent back to the Q to prepare for the World Junior Championships and the QMJHL playoffs. This is what they did with Mat Barzal in 2016-17. They will have to manage the roster through injuries just to do that.

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5. How will they fix the power play?

The short answer is Jim Hiller. Hiller was hired in expectation of Lane Lambert leaving for an NHL head coaching job. That didn’t happen, but Hiller will be the Islanders assistant coach in charge of the power play. He held that role on Mike Babcock’s staff in Toronto, and I believe they go back to Detroit together as well. Needless to say, he was quite successful last year with a more talented group. This year will be a bit more of a challenge.

The Islanders have also parted ways with assistant coach Scott Gomez. They made some personnel changes in the second half of last year that will probably carry over into this year’s power play.

What Hiller will bring to the structure, and personnel will be something fun to watch for during camp. I hope they will deploy Ryan Pulock more on the top unit, and move Mat Barzal around more when he isn’t in possession of the puck.

5 Questions For The Islanders as 2019-20 Camp Opens was originally published on islesblogger.com

#Brassard #Clutterbuck #Dal Colle #Dobson #HIller #Ho-Sang #Islanders #Isles #Ladd

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islesblogger · 5 years

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Isles Summer Shopping Tips

Isles Summer Shopping Tips #Isles @IslesBlogger @JPinVA @FaithfulIsles

As the free agent frenzy slows down I just wanted to take a look at what the Islanders need to contend. Do they really need as much as they think.

Where Are We

It’s July 12th and things have quieted to a whisper on the Islander rumor front. There doesn’t seem to be an offer sheet in the works for Mitch Marner. It looks like Lou will be content with his 2018-19 roster with a few upgrades here…

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#Barry Trotz #Brian Boyle #Free Agency #Ho-Sang #Islanders #Isles #Jim Hiller #John Tavares #Mat Barzal

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islesblogger · 5 years

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Isles Summer Shopping Tips

As the free agent frenzy slows down I just wanted to take a look at what the Islanders need to contend. Do they really need as much as they think.

Where Are We

John Palmieri | Islesblogger

Lou has done a good job avoiding the usual two steps back summer march the Islanders take annually in July. He has the roster back with the exceptions of Val Filppula who wanted to be back in Detroit, and Robin Lehner. Most fans, including myself, will miss Robin greatly. But Semyon Varlamov is an adequate starting goaltender and hopefully the proper pathway to Ilya Sorokin.

So What Do We Really Need

The consensus is that the Isles need a top six goal scorer. But do they? Last year’s surge from a lottery team expectation to a playoff team reality didn’t come because they added goals. In actuality they scored 38 less goals. What really hurt them was scoring 25 less power play goals. They had 58 in 2017-18 and 33 last year. Their PP went from 23% to 14%. That may have been the biggest cost when John Tavares took his blankey and went home.

The question may be, do we need a John Tavares type player to get those goals back. I’m going to say no. The important thing isn’t how many goals you score, or the amount you give up, it’s the difference between the two. It is also better to manage your resources (CAP space, prospects, draft picks) to increase your goal differential, rather than focusing on your goal production.

The Big Picture

John Palmieri | Islesblogger

This is a look at the regular season 5v5 scoring per 60 minutes. The Islanders were first in goals against. The two Stanley Cup finalists were second (Boston) and fifth (St. Louis). They are all three in the middle third of the league when it comes to 5v5 scoring. The Islanders are about where they need to be there. I wouldn’t spend too much to increase scoring, especially if it costs defensive responsibility.

Power Shortage

John Palmieri | Islesblogger

This is most likely what kept the Islanders from winning the Metro Division last year, and advancing further in the playoffs. Their anemic power play could never get on track. Economically, though, they don’t want to spend to get to the top of this list. They really only need to be in the middle of it. There are plenty of teams in the top 10 that didn’t make the playoffs, or where out in the first round. This is not what buys you success. It definitely makes it easier, but superior defense is how teams succeed.

So Doctor, What Do We Do?

Last year the prescription was simple. Fix the penalty kill, then work on overall defense. That’s what Lou did. Almost every player he brought in killed penalties. Most fans felt nauseous when they heard names like Komarov, Filppula and Kuhnhackl. They did their job, and the addition of Robin Lehner and a superior coaching staff did the rest. They fixed the PK, and the overall defensive structure of the team. That shouldn’t be something that is messed with just to score goals.

This year the prescription is pretty much the same. Just fix the power play. But much like any remedy, you don’t want it to come with side effects that are worse than what you are fixing. Nobody wants to lower their cholesterol by ten points at the cost of “anal seepage”.

Lou has already added Jim Hiller to Barry’s coaching staff. I could see him replacing Scott Gomez behind the bench, or as an “eye in the sky” to help diagnose in game issues.

We’ve already seen some improvement when Devon Toews replaced Nick Leddy on the first unit. It was written that they avoided moving Ryan Pulock to that spot because they wanted him to focus on his 5v5 play. That should not be the case this year, and hopefully Ryan will have improved his accuracy.

Beyond that, there are some internal and external options to improve the man advantage units. Michael Dal Colle was scarcely used on the second unit, and Jordan Eberle didn’t really find his touch until later in the season.

Maybe their biggest power play problem was their zone entries. The previous year they had Mat Barzal carrying the puck and retaining possession, with John Tavares as a key distribution point. That has been lost. Both Leddy and Barzal were not good at all retaining possession after an entry. What made that worse was their face-off record with the man advantage was horrible.

Toews will help their entries. Ho-Sang could help their entries as well. Maybe letting Cizikas take PP face-offs could help, or maybe trying to sign a guy like Brian Boyle as your fourth center could do the trick.

Wrap It Up

1 Don’t spend too much money. The first priority should be to avoid CAP issues next year when you have to sign Barzal, Pulock and Toews.

2 Don’t try to do too much. We want to fix the PP, but not at the expense of superb 5v5 play.

3 Try to fix things internally. The Islanders have prospects that need to take the next step. Josh Ho-Sang and Michael Dal Colle are no longer works in progress. They are no longer waiver eligible, so if they can’t stick with the Islanders they will be gone. If they can pass through waivers they probably aren’t going to be back. They need to be part of the solution. There are also marquee prospects, Noah Dobson and Oliver Wahlstrom who might surprise.

4 Andrew Ladd and Cal Clutterbuck will help the team when they are healthy, but they will make managing roster and cap concerns difficult all year. This also adds to the importance of low cost internal solutions.

5 I’d target Brian Boyle as a UFA, or a similar player with tradable assets such as Nick Leddy or any of the LH defensive prospects. Lou has to be careful here, as any term could interfere with next year’s RFA signings.

Isles Summer Shopping Tips was originally published on islesblogger.com

#Barry Trotz #Brian Boyle #Free Agency #Ho-Sang #Islanders #Isles #Jim Hiller #John Tavares #Mat Barzal

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islesblogger · 5 years

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Why Offer Sheeting Marner Is Not A Good Idea For the Islanders

Why Offer Sheeting Marner Is The Worst Idea Ever! #Isles #LeafsForever @IslesBlogger @FaithfulIsles @JPinVA

Rumors of Lou Lamoriello tendering an offer sheet to Mitch Marner have been circling on #Isles twitter recently. I’m not saying it won’t, or it can’t happen. I am saying that it will not be a good plan in the very near future.

The Cost The Salary

Mitch Marneris rumored to want somewhere in the neighborhood of $12M per year for his remaining Restricted Free Agent years. Those numbers are…

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#Barry Trotz #Islanders #Lou Lamoriello #Maple Leafs #Mat Barzal #Mitch Marner #Offer Sheet #Toronto

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islesblogger · 5 years

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Why Offer Sheeting Marner Is Not A Good Idea For the Islanders

The Cost

The Salary

Mitch Marner is rumored to want somewhere in the neighborhood of $12M per year for his remaining Restricted Free Agent years. Those numbers are insane. Five years and $60M for a player who will probably be at his athletic prime in three years. The whole idea of the previous CBA’s were to structure salary controls for players under 27 years of age. A few GMs broke the seal, and now it’s the norm.

The Compensation

For a player in that price range you must give up 4 of your next five first round draft picks. This is also insane. Even if these picks are all busts they have a value all on their own, pre-draft. A solid pending UFA usually goes for a first, a roster player and prospect at the deadline. You would be out of those conversations for four years.

If one of those years you have goalie or injury or goalie injury issues you could very well give up a top three pick. Think of what your press releases would look like if it happened two of those years. Your team would be right back in the dumpster fire.

Odds are that something like that will not happen. But it could, and the Islander are just getting out of the dumpster, the last thing you need is to get back in before you have time to even shower and shave.

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Why Not The Islanders In Particular

John Palmieri | Islesblogger

Here is the Islanders current roster, with projected 2019-20 CAP hits. They can manage adding Marner at $12M. They would need to move a player or two, and manage the IR from day one. Both Ladd and Clutterbuck expect to be back this season so LTIR is not an option at the moment. You might, however, lose some players to waivers should the need present itself.

John Palmieri | Islesblogger

This is the 2020-21 roster with some conservative estimates for raises to Mat Barzal, Ryan Pulock and Devon Toews. That bottom line does not include $12M for Mitch Marner. So start crossing out players. It certainly could be done through player movement and LTIR. But that’s $17M for players you now HAVE to replace on your roster with very low contracts. Those are contracts you usually benefit from when you have first round draft picks.

Within the 5 years every UFA on the current roster will be graduating to RFA w/arbitration or UFA, or will have signed a deal with term selling a few UFA years. The GM will be limiting his movement in trades, waiver claims and free agency for the full term of the deal.

The Islanders Do Need Help

Last year the Islanders went from the worst defense in the league by goals against, to the best. They allowed 100 less goals in one season. This was not solely because of player acquisition. It was done because Lou Lamoriello and Barry Trotz ushered in a new culture.

This culture isn’t going to evolve back into the highly aggressive offense of Doug Weight. It’s going to be a very similar, though evolved, five on five structure where the team plays a conservative forecheck, and takes advantage of neutral zone mistakes to generate offense.

Mitch Marner will make the Islanders better. There is no debating that fact. I will say that the Islanders may even make Mitch Marner a better player. But I also contend that Mitch will be less productive at 5v5 hockey.

Why does that matter? Because if I need a can of peas I don’t go to Costco. A can of peas is $1.50. A dozen cans of peas is $18 at the corner market. They might be $10 at costco. But I’ll never use eleven cans of peast. So I’ve saved $8 at the same time I’ve wasted $8.50. *** I obviously don’t do the shopping in my house.

The Solution

The Islanders have plenty of options, both internally and externally. They have a few prospects that could certainly help their anemic power play. The likes of Oliver Wahlstrom, Kieffer Bellows, Otto Koivula and Josh Ho-Sang will have an opportunity to make the Islanders within the next two years.

They also have a surplus of left handed NHL (Thomas Hickey, Nick Leddy) and AHL (Sebastian Aho, Parker Weatherspoon, Mitch Vande Sompel) to use as trade bait.

There are also UFAs still available, and some other RFAs that could be shaken loose because of the very cap constraints that the Islanders should avoid.

We also have a group of management, coaches and scouts that have the wheel. I’m fully confident that all of the above information has been processed by them. If an offer sheet is tendered, I’ll trust that it was the best move for the organization. I will withhold judgement with cautious optimism.

But there will be the possibility of this article being being retweeted regularly from the dumpster.

Why Offer Sheeting Marner Is Not A Good Idea For the Islanders was originally published on islesblogger.com

#Barry Trotz #Islanders #Lou Lamoriello #Maple Leafs #Mat Barzal #Mitch Marner #Offer Sheet #Toronto

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islesblogger · 5 years

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Lou Avoids Another Isles Exodus

http://gty.im/543010230

Lou Lamoriello showed his expertise through June and on day one of the NHL free agency period.

History

There have been several free agent exodus situations in the Islanders recent history. The first was a sort of a mutually agreed upon house cleaning in 2007. That basically led to the turning point drafts of 2008 and 2009. It had a decent ending, but it was…

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#Anders Lee #Brock Nelson #Isles #islesblogger #Jordan Eberle #JPinVA #Lou Lamoriello

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islesblogger · 5 years

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Lou Avoids Another Isles Exodus

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Lou Lamoriello showed his expertise through June and on day one of the NHL free agency period.

History

The second of note was in 2015. After their first playoff series win in over two decades the Isles let key players walk. In that July the Islanders lost Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen and Matt Martin. It took awhile for the team to figure out how to kill penalties without Nielsen and they fell too far to recover. That Fall, like the 2007 exodus cost a coach his job.

The third was last year when the team lost their captain, John Tavares, and Calvin deHaan to free agency. The only saving grace was that they were able to acquire GM Lou Lamoriello, coach Barry Trotz and the core of Barry’s staff. If not it surely would have been back to the drawing board for ownership.

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Present

This year had all the earmarks of 2015. The Islanders could have easily lost their captain [again!], their most experienced center, their Vezina candidate goaltender, their top right handed shot wing, their third line center and some depth pieces that were instrumental in their playoff push.

Lou did not let that happen. He took care of business with the two most likely to leave in June. He got Nelson and Eberle done relatively early. He then made sure his roster had solid flexibility by signing Fritz, then Kuhnhackl. This was key to the future management of likely IR candidates Andrew Ladd and Cal Clutterbuck.

Casey Cizikas clearly showed he was ready to take on more responsibility, so it was easy to see why they let Val Filppula walk. He had a very good year, but the Isles were clearly looking to add more offence.

A Very Strange Path To Continuity

Lou held off on signing his captain, and his number one goaltender. It was my assumption that he wanted to keep some cap space available for bigger fish. If he landed the fish (Artemi Panarin), then he’d have to move some players to create space to sign those two. The team doesn’t want to announce that, but in the aftermath that seems to have been the plan.

Lou missed on Panarin. But even though Panarin accepted less to play for the Rangers, he was offered more than if the Isles weren’t in the fishing hole.

This all comes full circle when Lou signs Lee for more term and AAV than anybody thought was possible. He also let’s Robin Lehner walk to sign another client of Panarin’s agent, Semyon Varlamov. Paul Theofanous represents July 1st targets; Sergei Bobrovsky, Arteri Panarin and Semyon Varlamov. He also represents Islander prospect Ilya Sorokin.

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Stability

Some will say the team is no better today, than it was yesterday. On paper maybe that’s true. Here’s what the roster looks like with none of the key RFA’s signed.

John Palmieri | Islesblogger

This roster plus Anthony Beauvillier, Michael Dal Colle and Josh Ho-Sang is certainly capable of continuing the Islanders’ successful run of 2018-19. That is something that wasn’t available to the teams in 2007 and 2015. There won’t be a dramatic coaching change in 2019, like there was in 2018.

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The Future

In the immediate future there are more fish to fry. As of me writing this there are some UFA forwards available that could easily fit in the ~$8M of cap space retained on July 1st.

Brian Boyle is a possible target for a team looking for a bottom six center that can kill penalties and help with the power play.

If this is the last deal this summer the Islanders are still in very good shape. They have two 2018 draftees that may make their NHL debuts this year. Oliver Wahlstrom is headed to Bridgeport. Ollie can play 9 games in the NHL without having his first ELC year counting. We can count on those games being used to evaluate his readiness if he has a good camp.

Noah Dobson is in a similar “ELC Slide” situation. He has dominated the QMJHL, but at 19 he can’t go to the AHL. I can see the Islanders using his 9 games as well. They should have enough flexibility to utilize both early in the season if Andrew Ladd and Cal Clutterbuck are both still healing in October.

The best way to improve the roster might be through a series of trades. The exceptional play of Devon Toews and Adam Pelech have made Nick Leddy and/or Thomas Hickey expendable. Thomas Greiss, as a pending UFA is also expendable. In turn there are several teams that are scraping or above the cap ceiling that should be willing to shed some salary.

John Palmieri | Islesblogger Courtesy of @CapFriendly

The possibilities for a roster upgrade are many. The best part of this is that we have a HOF GM running the show. He also should have confidence in the fact that his future HOF coach will be able to take the ingredients he provides and once again challenge for the Metro division. This because the New York Islanders did not take a step backwards today.

Lou Avoids Another Isles Exodus was originally published on islesblogger.com

#Anders Lee #Brock Nelson #Isles #islesblogger #Jordan Eberle #JPinVA #Lou Lamoriello

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islesblogger · 5 years

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2019 Islander Inventory

2019 Islander Inventory A look at the NY Islanders summer needs and strategy. @Islesblogger @FaithfulIsles @JPinVA #Isles

On Friday May 3rd 2019 the Islanders’ season officially ended. The Islanders need to work on putting the team back together. This is how I see it happening

2018-19

I’ve assembled a roster whiteboard to better understand the roster construction of the Islanders. This will break down the team by its 23 roster spots and their on-ice roles. This is what the 2018-19 Islanders looked like under…

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#Anders Lee #Anthony Beauvillier #Brett Leason #Brock Nelson #Free Agency #Islanders #Jordan Eberle #Robin Lehner

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islesblogger · 5 years

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2019 Islander Inventory

On Friday May 3rd 2019 the Islanders’ season officially ended. The Islanders need to work on putting the team back together. This is how I see it happening

2018-19

John Palmieri | Islesblogger

YELLOW indicates pending UFA, GREEN indicates pending RFA and RED indicates possibly 2019-20 IR candidate.

The team had over $10M to use all season for trades or free agent signings. They were unable to find suitable upgrades without giving up significant assets and ended the season with that money unused. That will probably not be an option in 2019-20.

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Free Agency

Unrestricted Free Agents

The Islanders are currently in what could be a mass exodus year. They have seven UFA’s that spent the majority of the season on the 23 man roster (highlighted in YELLOW above) and Tanner Fritz, who was an important piece, even though he only played eight NHL games with the teams before falling to injury.

Entering UFA status this year are:

Anders Lee : The Islanders’ captain and only 40 goal scorer will be a highly sought after LW. I fully expect him to be Lou’s number one priority. The team is stacked with LH forwards, but Lee’s work on and off the ice has made him a fan favorite and the pinnacle of team leadership.

Brock Nelson: Entering the 2018-19 season there were a lot of questions about where Brock would be with his new responsibilities under a new regime. Nelson answered all of the questions positively and proved to be the teams most valuable center. He played big minutes in all situations was in a virtual tie with Mathew Barzal for the lead in TOI amongst forwards. Brock is also among a select few “top 6” centers that will be available on July 1st. I expect him to be an Islander next year, but I also expect him to use that leverage to it’s fullest.

Robin Lehner: Robin signed a one year deal last year at bargain basement rates. He was coming off a season of turmoil with the Buffalo Sabres and had more question marks in his resume than Frank Gorshin. Much like Nelson he answered all of those questions positively. He and Thomas Greiss will share the Jennings Trophy for the least goals allowed by a team, and is a finalist for the Vezina Trophy. He is the third UFA that I expect back in 2019-20. His leverage has gone up, but he would probably benefit from a shorter deal as one year with a highly defensive system and under the best of coaching teams is just a step in rebuilding his reputation amongst NHL GMs. I expect a 2-3 year deal in the neighborhood of $5M AAV.

Jordan Eberle: This may be a bit of a surprise to some. I started the season expecting Eberle to be gone at the trade deadline. The team’s success kept him in blue and orange this year, and he second half success will probably keep him on the island a bit longer. I wrote on this a while back. Looking at the right handed forward options available, Jordan will have good leverage going into July. The Islanders would do well to sign him for 5 years in the neighborhood of $7M AAV.

Tanner Fritz: Yes, I am listing Tanner ahead of Val Filppula and Tom Kuhnhackl. Fritz checks two very important boxes for the Islanders. He can play center and he’s a right handed forward. He will also come in about $2M AAV less than Filppula. He showed at the end of the season that he can handle decent minutes, kill penalties and will dd speed to a roster that desperately needs it. Tanner will make the 23 more flexible.

Tom Kuhnhackl: I do not expect Tom back. He had a very good season, and an even better playoff run as the Isles’ 13th forward. They are flush at LW, and with the emergence of Michael Dal Colle as a restricted free agent he would just be an expensive waiver wire walker in a healthy year. They have a few left handed forward prospects behind him in Otto Koivula and Kieffer Bellows. Kuhnhackl has probably earned himself a $2M AAV contract somewhere, but most likely not on the Islanders.

Val Filppula: I’d really like to see Val back, but I just see too many scenarios where this is not going to happen. The Islanders could replace him with somebody like Kevin Hayes or (if Lou can find a phone booth with a cape in it) Matt Duchene. Both would truly stretch the Islanders CAP budget, and be miracle signings in a 31 team market. I expect the Islanders to re-sign Nelson, and elevate Cizikas. They’ll then have a few years to work with Fritz, Koivula and other prospects to elevate through the system. If Val returns I expect it to be a very short term deal. 1-2 years, and around the same $3M AAV.

Lucas Sbisa: Sbisa will cause me to have massive stroke should he be resigned. The emergence of Devon Toews made him expendable during the season and with the Islanders probably spending to within $5M of the salary cap it would be hard to imagine a 23 man roster with him on it.

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Restricted Free Agents

There are three key restricted free agents this year. They will all cause some thought when they are qualified. They will all be talked about as part of trade deals, but most likely they will all return to the Islanders organization, or at least their rights will.

Anthony Beauvillier: This is Beau’s first year of restricted free agency and with that comes very little leverage. He is a 20G forward and does have some value on the offer sheet table. I’d expect $2-2.5M AAV for 1-2 years so he can build his leverage, and work towards his arbitration deal. A longer deal is possible. If the Isles want to buy some of his arbitration and UFA years his AAV could go as high as $3.5-4M.

Michael Dal Colle: Much like Beau this is Michael’s first RFA year. Unlike Beau, Dal Colle has not built the same leverage. He had a good rookie year in the AHL, but regressed in his second. This year was outstanding. He dominated at the AHL level and did everything he was asked in the NHL. It’s a small sample size though and I expect he’ll sign a one year deal for somewhere between $1M and $1.5M AAV. He should have a lot more leverage next year.

Joshua Ho-Sang: I couldn’t possibly document the scope of, nevermind the actual opinions on where and what Josh could be in this organization. So I’ll just express my own. He is a highly talented hockey player who doesn’t want to color inside the lines. He is in an organization where coloring inside the lines was made the standard the day Lou Lamoriello was named President/General Manager. The team will probably qualify him at the minimum, and shop him on draft day. If he accepts their offer he’ll probably spend another unhappy year in Bridgeport, or be traded. If he doesn’t he might find himself much happier in Europe If the team is unable to sign or replace Eberle and Oliver Wahlstrom isn’t ready for his first call-up, we might see another NHL stint for Mr. Ho-Sang. Hopefully he can work things out. He would be a fine addition to the team if he could just accept being an addition to a team.

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Draft Day

It would be almost impossible to speculate accurately about the 2019-20 roster before the 2019 draft. Not that any draft pick would be on that roster, but that day is often a time for NHL GM’s to move surplus role players, prospects, salary and picks for needed role players, picks and prospects.

The Islanders have two general role surpluses. Left handed defensemen and left handed forwards. They have need at center, right handed forward and right handed defensemen. In that order.

I expect a number of players to be in play. There are some health concerns as well. I look at prospective draft day trades with the health of Andrew Ladd and Cal Clutterbuck in mind. Both could be issues next season. I’d also add Johnny Boychuk to that list, but I do expect him to at least start the season, and like the past few seasons, soldier through.

They should either target a wing with their available assets or target Brett Leason in the first round. Leason is a 6’5″ 200LB 20 year old right handed center who was passed over in the previous two drafts. He can immediately take his new found scoring touch to the AHL where he would join Otto Koivula as prospective pivots for the fourth line, or a replacement for Clutterbuck.

With that in mind I feel Nick Leddy is the most valuable, and expendable asset the Islanders possess. After that there is Beauvillier, Aho, DalColle, Bellows and Mitch Vande Sompel. I don’t expect them to trade any of the 2018 draft class. Those players have shown some success in the NHL or NHL readiness to where they should have some value in trade talks. Depending on which UFA’s have signed by draft day Lou will be wise to fill as many of the remaining holes with trade targets. Going into July 1st with a roster that looks like swiss cheese is not wise. Especially for the Islanders.

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2019-20

I suspect that every GM goes into each off season managing their team’s cap space for the following three years, or at least he tries. For the optimum result Lou will have to move three salaries. Leddy will most likely be shopped hard on draft day. Ladd and Clutterbuck are almost untradeable, but if they come back they’ll have some value. If they can’t they have to be put on LTIR so their cap space can be recaptured.

I’ll use the projected salaries I expect for returning UFAs as a basis for the below 23 man roster. Of course, there are a lot of variables. For one, I use a $7M/5yr deal for the three top returning UFA forwards, and $5M/3yr deal for Lehner. This would be the base going into July 1st:

John Palmieri | Islesblogger

If those deals are done before July 1st, then the team can go into the market with three spots to upgrade on and over $12M to spend. That money quickly disappears if any of the UFAs get outrageous deals, or if Lou is unable to manage the three contracts mentioned above. In my scenario, the Isles would be shopping for a 2/3 center, a 4th RHD and a RH forward.

There is still room to manage the return of two of the three contracts I’ve removed. Leddy’s $5.5M, Clutterbuck’s $3.5M and Ladd’s $5.5M. This plan would not work if all three were to return.

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UFA Options

Center

If Lou is unable to bring back Nelson his options for an “upgrade” are limited. Matt Duchene is the obvious choice, but he will most likely command over $10M AAV and that will be very difficult to manage as soon as next year when Mat Barzal, Ryan and Ryan Pulock will be looking for substantial raises.

Kevin Hayes could also be a target. I see him more as a lateral move from Nelson, or a substantial upgrade on the third center role. To go into the season with Barzal, Nelson, Hayes and Cizikas down the middle would be a fine accomplishment.

They could also target Nazem Kadri in trade talk on Draft Day.

Right Handed Forward

There isn’t much after Jordan Eberle on the free agent list. There is a slim chance they land Artemi Panarin or Mats Zuccarello. I would suggest the Islanders focus on solving this issue on Draft Day.

Right Handed Defenceman

There are some decent RHD on the UFA list this summer. I’d eliminate any player looking for more than 2 years. The Islanders don’t need a high priced, long term solution. One of their positives is that role is in a god place with the drafting of Dobson and Wilde last year.

What they need is somebody willing to share time with Scott Mayfield and Johnny Boychuk. They may have filled that role with Grant Hutton as a college free agent at the end of the 2018-19 season. They could also use Dobson or Wilde for 9 games without burning their first ELC year.

Dobson was probably ready for that last year, but the new coaching staff opted to sign Lucas Sbisa. The team has established their ability to handle Trotz’ system, so I see Dobson as a seventh defenceman early in the season. If he can handle the minutes he may earn a full time NHL role.

External UFAs

Here’s a list of the most prized UFA’s this summer. The order is my own based on Islander needs.

Matt Duchene: Matt would immediately displace Barzal or Nelson as the Islanders number one center. He’d also need to be paid as such, and would devalue Nelson. So this couldn’t truly happen if Nelson was re-signed. Being strong up the middle is something the Islanders should strive for every year, and Duchene would help that cause for quite some time. The main issue is salary. Giving Matt over $10M AAV would almost immediately make the Isles top heavy in terms of CAP space, as Mat Barzal will get paid next year.

Artemi Panarin: The bread man cometh, most likely to the Florida Panthers. If that can’t be worked out, then Lou has to take a swing here. In the scenario I lay out above there is room for all the returning UFA’s and Panarin. That would be the power ball in the 2019 NHL Summer Lottery. He will most likely demand over $10M AAV and extended term, and is one of the top three on this list because it’s somebody who they should try for, even if the cap future is sketchy.

Erik Karlsson: I didn’t put him in the RHD category because I didn’t think he would be a realistic fit. But if Lou could convince him to sign with the Islanders they could move other pieces and make it work. He’d have to deal with CAP hell later.

Kevin Hayes: Hayes is also a part of the 2010 draft class reaching their first year of UFA status. As a center in that class, much like Brock Nelson, Hayes will get paid. Unlike Duchene, I think Hayes and Nelson can co-exist on the same roster with Mat Barzal. I don’t, however, think that Kevin has Long Island as one of his preferred destinations. I hope I am wrong in this, but it will remain something to look for until he signs.

Mats Zuccarello: Zook was a Ranger favorite. He was moved in their fire sale and helped the Dallas Stars for a few minutes before sustaining a season ending injury. His play in the playoffs, plus his natural leadership qualities make him a good fit to stay in Dallas. If he becomes available in July I’m pretty sure Lou will fire a shot that way. He’d be a nice fit with the Islanders, especially if they lose Eberle to free agency and/or Clutterbuck to injury.

Jeff Skinner: Skinner would be a huge addition to the Islander roster. At the moment it appears he will stay in Buffalo. Skinner, like Anders Lee, has scored over 100 goals over the past three seasons. Two of those years were with the goal scorer oppressing Carolina Hurricanes. Skinner is going to get paid on July 1st regardless of where he lands. If he were to land on Long Island it would probably be for over $8M AAV with extended term. It’s something that could be done. I only see it if they miss with Lee and/or Eberle.

Jake Gardener: Gardener will be out there, and the Islanders should have ZERO interest in him unless they have traded away multiple left handed D with much more valuable contracts. Keep him in your sideview if some combination of Pelech, Hickey and/or Leddy are dealt on draft day.

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Summary

It appears that Lee and Nelson will be the first dominoes to fall. If they are, or are not, signed by the NHL Draft will determine their trade strategy and the targets in free agency. The Islanders have not done well historically on July 1st. Hopefully Lou is successful bringing back the bulk of his own UFAs. I would like him to start with $7M AAV and 5 years as a target for all three. If he hits or exceeds that target Islander fans should be very happy.

The Islanders have gone through two mass exodus July’s in recent history. In both 2007 and 2006 the following season was a disappointment after a playoff season. The Islanders can’t afford that step backwards while still dealing with arena issues.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Lou stepped in last June and made some very questionable personnel moves. He replaced John Tavares, Nikolai Kulemin, Calvin deHaan and Jaroslav Halak with Val Filppula, Leo Komarov, Lucas Sbisa and Robin Lehner. The addition of Barry Trotz and staff made those moves from an almost certain decline in standings points to 100 less goals against and 23 more standings points.

Lou has certainly changed the culture of the New York Islanders. What was not clear to Isles’ fans last summer should be crystal clear to them this year. Don’t necessarily root for the expected. Let Lou do his magic. He knows hockey, and he understands the type coach he needs to teach it, and the players he needs to execute it.

Islander fans have great confidence in Lou Lamoriello getting the job done. This off season will define his Islander legacy as he has so many spots to fill this summer. It will not be easy, but he does have an opportunity to move the team forward.

2019 Islander Inventory was originally published on islesblogger.com

#Anders Lee #Anthony Beauvillier #Brett Leason #Brock Nelson #Free Agency #Islanders #Jordan Eberle #Robin Lehner

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islesblogger · 5 years

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Islanders 5 Keys to Beating the Canes

Islanders 5 Keys to Beating the Canes #Isles #IsleFaithfulPodcast #IslesBlogger @JPinVA

For the NY Islanders the game plan will be the same. The keys will be in the execution. They will need to stress these points. Here’s what I see.

1 Line Matchups

For the Islanders the matchups will be driven by zone start as they have all year. Casey Cizikas and Val Filppula will take the bulk of defensive zone faceoffs, and Brock Nelson and Mat Barzal will handle the offensive zone starts.

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#Barry Trotz #Bunch of Jerks #Casey Cizikas #Huricanes #Islanders #Justin Faulk #Mat Barzal #Rob Brind&039;Amour #Sebastian Aho

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islesblogger · 5 years

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Islanders 5 Keys to Beating the Canes

For the NY Islanders the game plan will be the same. The keys will be in the execution. They will need to stress these points. Here’s what I see.

1 Line Matchups

What will be a little different this series is that Rod Brind’Amour doesn’t key his lines on the zone starts. He will also shuffle lines. This will make it a little more difficult for Trotz, especially on the road if he wants to line match. I don’t see that happening. I think these are two teams that trust their line rotation. Brind’Amour will be more apt to shorten his bench though.

The only match up the Islanders should avoid is when Lee, Barzal and Eberle find themselves on the ice with Leddy and Hickey against the Sebastian Aho line. I trust the other three lines to shut Aho down, but this line will have to outscore them, and that will be quite a task. They should do well with the support of the other two defensive pairings.

I think the Islanders have more balance and if this becomes an on the fly game the fact that the blue and orange can roll four lines with impunity will serve them well. Expect the Casey Cizikas line to take advantage of mismatches and be more productive offensively than they did last series.

2 Goaltending

Petr Mrazek had a decent season (2.34 GAA/ .914 SAV%), but this was supported by Carolina’s shot suppression. Robin Lehner on the other hand had a season (2.13 GAA/.930 SAV%) somewhat driven by shot quality against. I see the same thing here.

With the exception of Aho and Teravainen the bulk of Carolina’s shots will come from their D (Hamilton and Faulk). The best goaltending will be from the Islanders D and the layer which protects tips and blocks out for rebound control. Missing Boychuk will hurt to some extent so look for the Islanders centers to be more active.

The Islanders have the better goaltender. But the battle will be for the high danger areas, and I think Islanders have the advantage in getting there with all four lines, and will be equally matched in protecting. The bulk of even strength goals may come with DeHaan or Hickey on the ice.

3 Special Teams

Carolina had an above average PK (81.6%) and below average PP (17.8%). The Islanders were PK (79.9%) and PP (14.5%) respectively. The key here is to stay out of the box. The Islanders were able to stifle a 25% PP against Pittsburgh, and I don’t don’t think quality will be an issue here unless quantity becomes a problem.

The Islanders will have to avoid obstruction penalties with solid neutral zone defense. The Hurricanes will have to avoid more aggressive penalties due to the frustration that is brought on by being hit every time you touch the puck.

Carolina has an advantage here with better overall special teams. The key is the Islanders neutralizing that advantage with discipline. They have also started to find more PP success. If that continues the Canes will find themselves in trouble early. If the Islanders power play disappears again it could be enough to turn the series around.

4 Neutralize The Defense

Carolina has one of the better defensive groups in the league. Not because they are solid defenders, but because they are adept puck movers. They are not easily intimidated. The Islanders will try to frustrate them in their defensive zone. The Canes are good at skating the puck away from trouble and passing accurately under pressure. Too much pressure will allow for some odd man rushes, and speed through the neutral zone.

The key here is for the Isles to play a LESS aggressive strategy and rely on neutral zone turnovers. They will not win a track meet with the Canes.

In the same vein, the Islanders forwards must help the defense move the puck out of their own zone. Carolina will aggressively forecheck and try to pressure the Islanders youngish D. This isn’t the same D that Carolina faced earlier in the season, but the Islanders will be facing a more cohesive unit as well.

The key here is for the Islanders to keep it boring. Turnover goals can be exciting, but not when they are happening to you. Station to station hockey and gap control will be how the Islanders have to play here. Eventually they can wear down the Carolina forecheck with Pulock, Leddy and Toews proving their worth in escaping their defensive zone.

5 Coaching

Rob Brind’Amour has done an outstanding job in his rookie season. The Canes are motivated and have well outplayed their talent. Barry Trotz has given the Islanders a blueprint for success, and they’ve run with it. What’s left is a chess match.

The key here is preparation and adjustments. I don’t think either team will change much from their last series to this one. What I do think is that Trotz will be better at identifying weaknesses and translating that to gameplan. If both teams play to their strengths the Canes can win this series. Trotz won’t let that happen.

Watch the evolution of the Islanders break outs. If the Canes are neutralizing their defensive zone escapes look for Barry to start releasing forwards to get behind the Canes D. This will allow the Islanders to dump pucks from their own zone while avoiding icing. This might also affect some lineup changes mid-series to remove some of the less fleet of foot Islanders.

Summary

I expect a long and exciting series. The Canes can certainly bring it, but they are not a perfect team. It will come down to execution, and adjustments. I expect the secondary units to be the stars here. Look for a 3+ goal series from Casey Cizikas and Brock Nelson. One or both of these two players will steal the show from Jordan Eberle. If the Canes are successful it will be because they get goal production from Hamilton and Faulk. The Islanders must stop that from happening.

Islanders in six.

Islanders 5 Keys to Beating the Canes was originally published on islesblogger.com

#Barry Trotz #Bunch of Jerks #Casey Cizikas #Huricanes #Islanders #Justin Faulk #Mat Barzal #Rob Brind'Amour #Sebastian Aho

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islesblogger · 5 years

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All The Right Moves

All The Right Moves #Isles #IslesBlogger #IslesFaithfulPodcast @JPinVA

Lou Lamoriello and Barry Trotz seemed to have prepared for this from day one. Adding the proper spice to an existing inventory has been successful. They have created the most competitive team in the shortest amount of time possible.

Game Plan

In my last post I went over the matchups for this series, and what I thought coach Trotz would do to counterbalance his team’s lack of playoff…

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#Casey Cizikas #Islanders #Isles #Josh Bailey #Mat Barzal #Penguins #Robin Lehner #Tom Kuhnhackl

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islesblogger · 5 years

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All The Right Moves

John Palmieri | Islesblogger

Game Plan

In my last post I went over the matchups for this series, and what I thought coach Trotz would do to counterbalance his team’s lack of playoff experience. I think I pretty much nailed it. But if a slightly more than casual observer could break down a strategy to beat the Penguins, that strategy has to be rock solid. It certainly was no secret.

The external hero of last night was Josh Bailey. If you read the matchup post you know the real hero was Casey Cizikas. Each one of the other three line combinations had a CF% lower than 50. Casey, Martin and Clutterbuck (MC^2) were 55.56%. Sidney Crosby, Guentzel and Rust were 25.93%. That is one helluva job by Casey, and to some extent the other lines. Casey matched up against Sid in almost all of the defensive zone starts.

With the top line neutralized the strategy is to keep the shots from the perimeter, and your fingers crossed. Robin Lehner certainly won the goaltending battle. Both teams had similar shot distribution 5v5, but the Penguins shot with more frequency(37 to 24).

What we saw last night were two pretty evenly matched teams, with vastly different attributes. What does that even mean?

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Personnel

When the season started the Islanders were in a bit of a hole. They had just lost their star center, and were ready to move away from their 12 year general manager and a failed coaching staff. I won’t go into the details of that, but I will trace the key steps.

Lou Lamoriello was hired as President and General Manager. Much like the creation story he was given about seven days. The first thing he did was turn the lights on, and the second thing was to hire Barry Trotz.

Barry Trotz was not only the best coach that had been available to the Islanders since Al Arbour retired, he was the most in line with Lou’s “Burger Barn” mentality. What we are seeing today is the dinner cooked by two guys who went shopping with the same menu in mind.

John Palmieri | Islesblogger

Lean Cuisine

The Islanders historically do not attract high end free agents. To the contrary they repel them. So when the dynamic duo put this roster together they had that in mind. You don’t go after $10M superstars to replace John Tavares. Nobody has ever won a Stanley Cup with John Tavares on the roster. But they have with Tom Kuhnhackl. If you shop at Walmart you can get Kuhnhackl, Lehner, Filppula and Komarov for less than $10M.

Those four served as the main ingredients in a menu created to fix the Islanders defensive woes, and more than anything their horrible penalty kill. That’s it. The rest would be on structure and execution. They had a few rounds in the chamber like Ho-Sang and Toews, but those four were really the only talent brought in from outside the organization.

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Trotzformation

This has taken the full 82 games. It certainly appeared to be the first Islander meritocracy of the past decade or two. Barry started with his cast of veterans, and allowed his younger talent to flow in as injuries occured and they earned their opportunities.

We saw some fail. Even though Josh Ho-Sang had good possession numbers in his stint with the big club, he didn’t produce offensively. When Eberle returned, he was demoted to work on what we could only define as “Josh Things”.

We also saw some succeed. Michael Dal Colle went from being an obscure high first round bust to an AHL all-star almost overnight. When he was given an opportunity in the NHL he embraced every role and proved himself worthy of a full time roster spot.

We also saw one player super succeed. Devon Toews was called up as a replacement for an injured Thomas Hickey. He not only proved himself worthy of a roster spot, but won Hickey’s playing time. He’s even earned the spot as the first power play quarterback. The power play certainly can use some work, but it has improved with Toews’ reflexive puck distribution and his above average shot from the point.

The minor personnel changes and the overall philosophy of defense first instead of “defense, what the heck is that” transformed this team from a lottery team to what now looks like a team on the cusp of cup contention.

Choices

In selecting Tom Kuhnhackl over Dal Colle Barry Trotz selected a player who had over 40 playoff games and two Stanley Cup rings with his current opponent. Kuhnhackl rewarded him by putting the puck in the net twice. Both goals were disallowed, but that doesn’t discount the fact that he beat Matt Murray twice. Kuhnhackl also gave the Islanders a minute and a half of penalty killing. He was on the ice for the Penguin’s lone power play goal, but you can’t fault him for a shot tipped in by Adam Pelech. Those things are just going to happen when you are playing 4 on 5 against an all-star team.

The clear choice for goal last night was Robin Lehner. He was the hot hand and the Islanders rode his goaltending into a home ice advantage in the first round. There’s no telling what the game would have been like if the choice went the other way, but Lehner rewarded them with a stellar performance. He allowed one 5v5 goal by one of the premiere shooters in the league and two goals at a man disadvantage. One was deflected and the other from a blind shot through heavy traffic. The key was Robin made key saves all night, and a ton of them. The Islanders were outshot 33-44 and never trailed. NOT FOR ONE SECOND.

Results

I fully expect the same lineup for game two. I also expect the same strategy choices throughout the first round. Even when Trotz does not have last change in Pittsburgh, he will deploy his lines similarly. Casey and Filppula for defensive zone face offs, and Brock and Barzal for offensive zone starts.

He’ll try to get Pulock and Pelech out against Crosby as much as possible, but all three pairings can handle the skating aspect of covering that line. Their breakdowns came mostly from well execute cross-ice drops and the creation of time and space by a very talented group of Penguins.

My original prediction, Islanders in six, still stands. I’m just a little more confident in their future. Not only this playoff year, but beyond that. This team may not win another game this year, but they have already proven that they should be taken seriously as a Metro Division contender, and with some maturation and possibly an addition or two, a Stanley Cup contender as well.

All The Right Moves was originally published on islesblogger.com

#Casey Cizikas #Islanders #Isles #Josh Bailey #Mat Barzal #Penguins #Robin Lehner #Tom Kuhnhackl

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islesblogger · 5 years

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Islanders vs Penguins Matchups

Islanders vs Penguins Matchups #Isles #IslesBlogger #IslesFaithfulPodcast @JPinVA

The New York Islanders are the least favored two seed in the NHL playoff matchups this year. This is based on one thing, Sidney Crosby. Let’s break this down and see if this is truly the case.

The Rosters

When you look at the rosters as a whole the Penguins have a huge advantage based on playoff experience, and their top six forwards. There are an awful lot of Stanley Cup rings over there,…

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#Islanders #Isles #Mat Barzal #Penguins #Playoff Preview #Sidney Crosby

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islesblogger · 5 years

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Islanders vs Penguins Matchups

The New York Islanders are the least favored two seed in the NHL playoff matchups this year. This is based on one thing, Sidney Crosby. Let’s break this down and see if this is truly the case.

The Rosters

John Palmieri | Islesblogger

When you look at the rosters as a whole the Penguins have a huge advantage based on playoff experience, and their top six forwards. There are an awful lot of Stanley Cup rings over there, and they should be given credit for every one of them. They’ve earned that right. They also have two of the top ten centers in the league, a patchwork of highly skilled defenseman, and one of the best playoff goalies of the past three years. How do you combat that?

The Matchups

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Islander Defensive Zone Starts – Cizikas vs Crosby

This is the matchup you’ll probably see at the beginning of the game and in most IDZ (Islander Defensive Zone) starts. The Penguins will want Sidney Crosby out there to take advantage of the position, and the Islanders will want the best fourth line in hockey out there to defend. You will also see a lot of Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech in these situations. This will keep Pulock’s offensive abilities somewhat muted, but that pairing’s ability to breakout under pressure will keep the Islanders from sustained pressure by the Penguins top line. If this matchup breaks down the Islanders will be in for a short series. If the Islanders win this will have been the key matchup of the series.

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Islander Offensive Zone Starts – Barzal vs Cullen

Barzal, Eberle and Lee are the three most offensively productive Islanders. They are not the three best defensive forwards on the team. Barry Trotz will try to get them on the ice for IOZ (Islander Offensive ZOne) starts as often as possible. Matt Cullen is deployed almost exclusively in a defensive zone role. I expect to see a lot of this.

In these situations I see the Islanders as having a slight advantage because Casey Cizikas is having such a good offensive season he may be able neutralize the Crosby line and add some offense when they break down. The Barzal line is rather new, and has been on a positive trajectory of production. These two situations should, surprisingly favor the Islanders.

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The Middle Six

I see a lot of Filppula vs Malkin and Nelson vs Bjugstad. The Islanders are in a more defensive role in both of these matchups, and that is not good. It’s how they’ve operated all season and they’ve made it work with solid five man defensive strategies and great goaltending. That will have to continue for them to have any chance here.

The one bright spot for the Islanders is the poor defensive showing of the Evgeni Malkin line. The Islanders will have to exploit this with some combination of Nelson and Bailey or Filppula and Beauvillier. If it is not working by game three they may have to switch from a defensive approach with Kuhnhackl to a more offensive one with Michael Dal Colle.

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The Defense

The upside is that all six Islanders defenders can be deployed against any of the four lines without there being a clear mismatch in talent. The Penguins can boast the same claim. The difference is the Islanders have not been able to say this in any of their previous playoff matchups.

I think they will try to get Pulock against Crosby, and Boychuk against Malkin as often as possible. I could see Letang being assigned to Barzal, but they may also want to match up a more physical defender like Gudbranson or Johnson with Lee.

The Islanders may have a slight advantage here because of their neutral zone structure, and the fact that all six defenders can skate, and match up physically with all four of the Penguin lines. The Penguins will have some difficulty with the speed of Barzal paired with the physical nature of Lee. It’s almost a similar threat as Ovechkin on the same line as Wilson…and we all know how that turned out for the Penguins.

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The Goaltending

By the numbers the Islanders have the advantage in 2018-19. Lehner and Greiss have been the best tandem in the NHL Matt Murray has two Stanley Cup rings and has been through this before. Advantage Penguins… until proven otherwise.

This may be the matchup that turns the series. The Islanders’ goalies have outperformed all others during the regular season. This isn’t the regular season. Thomas Greiss won a playoff series with the Islanders, but has not been in the dance for past two years. Robin Lehner had a cup of coffee in the playoffs with Ottawa and played well, but it’s been six years for him. These two might be outstanding, but there is no recent evidence of such. I expect Lehner to get the nod in game one due to recent play. He’ll probably play until he loses two in a row.

The Penguins have a pretty big advantage here. But the Islanders have the potential to turn that around. It’s a lot of pressure to put on Robin Lehner. But Robin put a lot of pressure on himself this year, and he has battled through all of it and come out on top. I like those odds.

Special Teams

The Penguins have a huge advantage here. If Barry Trotz tries to steer this ship into the “physical” waters it will be a disaster. While both teams have penalty kill units operating at about league average (80%) the Penguins have a far better power play. The Penguins are successful 24% of the time and the Islanders only 14%. What that translates to is if they both had 4 PP chances per game in a seven game series the Pens would outscore the Islanders about 7 to 4. That would be a tough deficit to overcome 5 on 5.

The Islanders will need to lean towards a skating series and try to limit the Penguins to two chances per game. That could keep the special teams deficit to a minimum. That means staying on the right side of the puck to avoid obstruction penalties. The must avoid touching Sidney. This is where we will see the experience bias. Barzal will get pounded at every opportunity because the Penguins will not fear retribution of the Islanders anemic power play. On the other hand the Islanders will have to avoid playing Sid and Gino physically.

This could turn the series if Barry Trotz allows it to happen. I don’t think that will be the case, but it is something to watch.

John Palmieri | Islesblogger Home Ice Advantage

The Bottom Line

The Islanders must shut down Sidney Crosby. The last line of defense, the goaltenders will be the deciding factor. The Islanders’ Best Fourth Line In Hockey and their Jennings Trophy winning defense and goaltending must hold up for this series.

It also doesn’t hurt to have the first two, the fifth, and the seventh games played at Fort Neverlose. It’s an advantage they fought for through 82 regular season games. I expect the building to be rocking and the crowd to be “Jacked“.

If the Islanders stay out of the penalty box, and the goaltending maintains its regular season form the Islanders have the advantage. I could see the Islanders taking the series in six games.

Islanders vs Penguins Matchups was originally published on islesblogger.com

#Islanders #Isles #Mat Barzal #Penguins #Playoff Preview #Sidney Crosby

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