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blondepomeranian · 6 years

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so, hear me out...

I’m not wholly convinced the figure at the end of the teaser trailer is Solas.

In fact, I’m almost convinced that it’s definitely not Solas.

(That said, I’m a baby at persuasive meta, so believe what you will, but here’s my reasoning.)

First, let’s get the purely aesthetic reasons out of the way.

Yes, the figure does seem to have a mage staff, the tell-tale fur, and appear to be bald. But that does not an egg make. What throws me most are the skin tones, the pattern on the outfit, and the staff.

So what the fuck is the white part on the head? At first glance it looks like a helmet, similar to the one the ‘canonical’ image of the inquisitor wears, minus the nose piece (which could be omitted at the right angle). If we are assuming the white part of the head is depicting a helmet, that does not match with Solas’ typical presentation (excepting Halamshiral but that was pure petty spite) nor does it fit with the fact that the figure is presented as a mage (staff) when mages typically wear crowls, hoods, or other headgear that is not a helmet. IF it is believed to be a helmet and the darker skin (inconsistent with Solas’ white-washed complexion) beneath it to be, well, just that, it does not explain necessarily why the hands are of a similar color besides ??gloves??gauntlets??. Artistically speaking, I think it was important to have the hands stand out and so to do those with a darker color given the bg may not have had as much of an impact, so I’m willing to give those an artistic pass, but the white of the helmet I’m not so sure on. If it is a helmet, it clashes not only with presenting as a mage but also what Dalish elf wears a helmet?? An alienage/tevinter/former slave elf, on the other hand... But if it’s not a helmet, then is it... hair? fenris? A representation of baldness in that manner would not be consistent with other representations, like that of the sentinels (which I have a theory that Solas modeled his hobo/Inquisition-appearance after, but that’s another post). For now, I’m gonna give a big ol’ IDK to what it is exactly, except to say that I don’t think it lends credence to the figure being Solas. If anything, its vagueness casts more doubt, and scatters credence to other theories, hence this post.

The pattern on the outfit: from the moment I saw it something pinged it as familiar. I cannot for the life of me find exactly what I’m looking for, but the patterns that come to mind are, particularly,

those of grey warden armor (mage armor close up, seen here). Although I will admit that could be a total crapshoot, as the style in the fresco gives more a noble, cloak like appearance while that is very much not the typical style of more functional grey warden armor. Still, there is no consistency with any of Solas’ attire except perhaps in the sleeve over the bicep (before it’s weirdly cut off by an armlet??) if compared to his outfit from the romanced tarot card. But I’m really just grasping at straws here to find anything that matches.

Lastly, the staff held there is, imo, a glaring error that that figure is probably not the Egg. While we do not see him wield a staff in Trespasser, the only time we see him canonically wield a staff (uninfluenced by equipment) is in his original (unromanced) tarot card, in which I will 100% admit that staff looks exactly the same as the one in the trailer. HOWEVER, given his duplicity and the artistic nature of tarot cards, I’m hedging my bets that that staff was used to [mis]guide the player into Solas’ leaning towards the Elven hobo Mage image, and hence why I’m more or less brushing it aside. Besides, the other time we see him wield an uninfluenced staff is in the journey to Skyhold, where he is shown to hold a very specific kind of staff that I am currently blanking on, but

that. Which, if anything, appears to be Tevene in origin, based on the heavy metallics and the dual dragon iconography. Either that, or it’s Elvhen sentinel, though in-game skins don’t entirely support it but the general style isn’t a far jump. And even if I’m wrong in what it appears to be, what I’m getting at is IT SURE AIN’T DALISH, which is entirely the style of the staff held by the figure. If anything it looks suspiciously like the staff a Dalish Keeper would typically wield...

Which brings me to my next point of contention...

The tree the figure stands in front of, in a protective stance. And not just any tree, a Vhenadahl, by the looks of it. The symbol of the [Dalish] people. Now I’m not saying Solas isn’t, in a twisted way, trying to protect his people (the Elvhen), but he’s outright stated how he’s willing to sacrifice the Dalish in order to bring back the Elvhen, so the imagery here would be a complete mismatch. (But you know what wouldn’t be? An alienage/tevinter/former slave elf...) And given that he’s doing so in opposition to the rendering of the Dread Wolf, it portrays a very Dalish image--unwilling to submit, even when everything you know and love is nearly lost, against the very villain of the Dalish folklore. IIRC, the imagery shown in places like the Temple of Mythal and other ruins from the time of the Elvhen always seem to have more of a grandeur with their warriors in aggressing stances, not the a ragged, last-stand, protective kind that threads through Dalish history (but that could be because I’m leaning heavily on (foggy memories of) the sentinel imagery from the temple of Mythal and in trespasser).

As for the overall composition of the piece...

I went to school for a degree in English and Psychology; I’m no art historian or critic. My weaknesses with his piece are that while I’m vaguely familiar with the symbolism of the circles behind heads and understand the general connotations behind certain colors, I have to say the pale red behind the figure leaves me a bit stymied. The only other instance of this in my tarot/fresco scan is in Blackwall’s original picture, which could suggest power, strength, conflict, blood, or duplicity. These could thematically fit with Solas as the Dread Wolf, but given the contradictions above and my bumbling guesses with what it’s supposed to represent at all, it doesn’t end up warranting much of a claim. There is also, of course, the obvious in this picture that it could be something to do with red lyrium, but I personally don’t have enough information to make any kind of real stab at incorporating that into a guess.

So anyway, leaving the details where they are, we see a mage-ly figure in front of a burnt tree standing up to a recoiling or circling Dread Wolf. The figure is clearly leaning forward, perhaps mid-step forward, while the Dread Wolf appears to be backing away or at least keeping an even distance from the figure (at least for the moment) as they encroach. Given Bioware’s set up for Solas/Fen’Harel to become the (currently known) villain of DA4, this figure opposite the Dread Wolf is set up in the composition as the protagonist of this piece. Who they are, exactly, is unknown for the moment, but I believe it is safe to say, at least, who they are not: Solas.

(please interact with this--I’d love to hear input or other opinions but pleeeease be civil and courteous. As said earlier, I am still a baby in terms of dragon age lore and meta.)

#dragon age 4 #dragon age 4 speculation #meta #solas #the dread wolf rises #in case you can't tell I have a strong Feeling on who-ish the figure is #but not an Opinion as strong as 'Not Solas'

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preciousmetals0 · 4 years

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How to Survive 2020’s Stock Market Panic

How to Survive 2020’s Stock Market Panic:

Investor Insights:

We have the highest budget deficits ever outside of wartime or a financial crisis.

A house of cards like this makes investors nervous … and nervous investors sell.

But one cluster of firms at the center of all this is going to get a big boost.

I have a big prediction for next year.

In 2020, the U.S. government’s outrageous budget deficits are finally going to matter.

That could be bad news for the stock market.

But it’s likely to be great news for stocks in one hated sector that’s been underperforming the market for years.

It’s no secret that stock market bulls have been feeding on low interest rates for the last decade.

If you don’t believe me, consider that on two occasions when the Federal Reserve tried to raise them, markets tanked.

One was 2013’s “taper tantrum.”

The other was exactly one year ago … when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made some loose comments about raising rates in 2019, and Santa Claus nearly brought all of us a sack of coal.

The stock market loves low rates for a simple reason — and it’s not because they make borrowing, capital investment and job creation cheaper.

It’s because they allow big institutional investors to reap huge profits from financial engineering.

A big bank with a couple hundred billion dollars’ worth of U.S. Treasury bills can borrow against them at next to nothing and use that to speculate on the latest growth stocks.

A cash-rich company with nothing profitable to do with it can justify stock buybacks because the next best use of the money — putting it in a bank account — pays next to nothing.

But cheap money comes at a cost.

You’ll be shocked when you learn about it … and the resulting opportunity!

Don’t Fear the Cheaper (Dollar)

The federal budget deficit matters … but not for the reasons we’re usually given.

For years, old-school financial commentators have told us budget deficits will cause massive inflation and the collapse of the dollar.

Bet it’s been a while since you heard that one!

The U.S. government has been running massive budget deficits for the last few years … but the dollar just keeps getting stronger. The Fed is desperate for a little inflation.

The old theories have been thrown on the garbage heap where they belong.

Inflation and a dollar collapse aren’t the things to fear when deficits soar.

It’s worse than that.

Uncle Sam’s Lenders

Every cent the U.S. government spends beyond what it takes in from taxes must be covered by a Treasury bill sold to a creditor.

For decades, foreigners have been more than willing to buy those Treasury bills, financing our debt splurge:

But as the chart above shows, federal debt held by foreigners began to level off in 2013.

From then on, foreigners — especially central banks — have been net sellers of U.S. Treasurys.

That’s because they realized from the Fed’s reaction to the taper tantrum that it wasn’t going to raise interest rates. Yields on Treasurys would thus be too low to make them worth buying.

So, if deficits are rising and foreigners are cutting back their purchases of our government’s debt, who’s taking up the slack?

The big Wall Street financial houses have bought nearly all the Treasurys foreigners have left on the table since the middle of the decade.

They have an incentive to hold them. You see, to “too big to fail” goliaths such as commercial banks, hedge funds and mutual funds, Treasurys are equivalent to cash in two ways:

In the repo market. When big financial institutions lend each other money in the short term, U.S. Treasurys are the standard collateral. Short on cash, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon? Simply transfer some Treasurys to Goldman Sachs Senior Chairman Lloyd Blankfein for a week or two and promise to repurchase them then (hence “repo”).

As Fed-required reserves. Systemically important financial institutions — think JPMorgan Chase or Goldman Sachs — must keep reserves at the Fed equal to a fixed proportion of their liabilities. Those reserves can be held either as cash … or as Treasurys.

Backdoor Money Printing

As Clint Lee’s Chart of the Week shows, federal deficits are rising rapidly.

Congress slashed corporate taxes and income taxes for the wealthy dramatically in 2018, but didn’t cut spending.

The federal government is now running the highest budget deficits ever outside of wartime or a financial crisis.

And since foreigners are unwilling to buy all the debt the government is issuing, Wall Street has had to step in to buy it instead.

But as we saw in September, because so much of Wall Street’s Fed reserves have been converted to Treasurys, there hasn’t been enough cash left over to meet the demand for short-term repo loans.

To conceal this, the Fed has been injecting billions of dollars of liquidity into the market by buying Treasurys from Wall Street.

Now, if you step back and look at what’s happening, I’m sure you see the problem:

Bigger deficits → Wall Street buys more Treasurys → the Fed buys them for cash = printing money to fund the deficit

Fundamentally, U.S. government debt is just passing through Wall Street institutions on its way to the Fed’s balance sheet.

The Fed could just create money and pay it to the U.S. Treasury, avoiding the whole charade. But that would send a terrible signal to global markets.

“The U.S. financial system, the U.S. economy and much of the global economy are being funded by dollars created out of thin air by the Fed. What will happen when they stop?”

A Nervous Year Ahead of Us

A house of cards like this makes investors nervous.

Nervous investors have a hair trigger that says “sell.”

It’s likely to go off if they suspect the Fed is going to turn off the money tap.

That sets up the stock market for a potentially sharp downturn if everyone panics at once.

There is, of course, one solution: Raise interest rates.

That would force up the yields on Treasurys and encourage foreigners to start buying again.

But that would also send the stock market into a panic, just as it did in 2013 and at the end of last year.

That’s why 2020 will be the year when the Fed accepts that Treasury yields and interest rates high enough to attract foreign buyers are the price of the enormous debts being run up by Washington politicians.

It’s going to take the punch bowl away from the stock market … not because it wants to, but because printing money is an unsustainable solution, and everyone knows it.

That’s going to lead to a temporary correction as Wall Street adjusts to the new normal of higher interest rates.

But one cluster of firms is going to get a big boost out of those higher rates: U.S. banks and other financial institutions.

That’s because higher interest rates mean they can raise rates on their own lending, increasing their margins and fattening their profits.

So, as you can see, the U.S. banking system is at the center of all of this.

That’s why my stock recommendation to get ready for 2020 is the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLF).

After all, if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.

Kind regards,

Ted Bauman

Editor, The Bauman Letter

P.S. If you’re looking to increase your income in 2020, you should check out my new book, Endless Income: 50 Secrets to a Happier, Richer Life. It’s full of income-boosting secrets that anyone can take advantage of. I’d like to send you a FREE copy as soon as possible, so click here to claim yours now.

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goldira01 · 4 years

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