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profbruce · 2 months

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Mister 1000% ROI

Bruce M Firestone, PhD, and Andrew L Firestone, BA (Econ)

Any time someone offers you investments with returns of 1000% per year, you are right to be skeptical, but this is what Australian economist “Mr 1000%” Andrew Firestone has been working on for a number of years now. He reckons he will be able to present how households can add an equivalent of $60,000 to $70,000 AUD to their annual income with some fairly simple approaches he has studied and researched. These are activities with a very high return on their labor, capital, time and sweat equity inputs. I told him about the tiny house movement philosophy of “less house, more life” and he loved that idea, his tag line is “Better Income – Better Life,” a similar pattern.

But wait, it gets better. Like veg-o-matic, K-tel direct-marketing TV pitchmen of the 1960s whose mantra was, “It slices! It dices!” you pay no income tax on these earnings.

The Veg-o-matic

Huh? How is that even possible?

First, let’s work through the 1000% ROI number then deal with personal tax issues.

Full of Beans Case Study

Some years ago, Andrew purchased a pack of bean seeds for $3.50 that produced 250 grams per week of the sweetest freshest beans you can find anywhere; this went on for nine months in Canberra where he lives with his family[2]. The Canberra area has a relatively dry climate with warm to hot summers and cool winters. Elevation about sea-level is around 580-meters (1,900-feet) and you can see snow in the foothills around the capital city of Australia from time-to-time.

To keep them producing, Andrew staggers his planting. He then harvested seeds from his best producers to use for the next year (this will become important later).

Over the year, his bean yield was around 9 kilograms (nearly 20-pounds), which (as of 2021) retailed at $3.90 per kg in-store or $35.10 for his 9 kg. Now estimating his ROI is simple arithmetic—

ROI = ($35.10 - $3.50)/$3.50 = 903%

So, not quite a 1000% return, but getting close with two other key factors still to consider. It might be useful to note that a quick online search of bean prices today (circa 2024) shows much higher prices per kg for beans, ie, $11[3]! Now that’s inflation for you… And don’t forget—since Andrew’s bean seeds are now free, his ROI is currently infinite.

“But whoa, hold your horses[4],” you say. The above calculation doesn’t factor in the cost of Andrew’s labor, right?

Marble Bust of Homer

That’s true. It doesn’t. But it also doesn’t yet take into account taxes. For Andrew, the labor cost to add would be the income he could otherwise earn. But he is on a fixed salary and picking up a part-time job would be impractical. So, the real alternative is Andrew sitting in front of his TV for nine months instead of experiencing shinrin-yoku (the Japanese term for forest bathing), one could argue that his cost of labor is zero or even negative since gardening can be a positive health event, providing both exercise and mental well-being. Plus, how much work is involved? Very, very little, he informs us.

Practising forest bathing in Japan[6]

When he lived with his family in a small townhome, he was able to sneak his seeds into a tiny and neglected patch out front and just put the water to them; he used a bunch of weeds he removed from the scrubby yard as mulch. In the photos below you will also see a mandarin seedling he put in as well.

Andrew’s sneaky, puncy townhouse microgarden: YUMMY

What about income tax?

Well, the beauty of self-production is you don't pay any. If Andrew could have worked extra hours to buy his beans, he would have to pay income tax on that income before he was allowed to go ahead and spend it. There are a couple of ways to think about tax. Firstly, if he was to go out and earn the extra, he'd lose close to half of that marginal income to taxation, so the beans would really have cost at retail (back in 2021) about $70 in after-tax income[7]. Or if he was just using his regular work income, he would lose on average 25% of that so his beans would have really cost $46.80.

He tells me, he sees this pattern over and over again with home-based production. There are some less good returns, growing watermelons or pumpkins, for instance, but many traditional pastimes such as gardening, sewing, home preserving, brewing, etc will likely hit the 1000% mark.

In fact, Andrew calculates, a household could make the equivalent of $60,000 to $70,000 worth of taxable income (but, in fact, not subject to tax) at home per year doing these sorts of tasks!

Gender roles

As far back as the early 1980s, researchers noted that, “Women do two-thirds of the world's working hours but receive only one tenth of the income and own one hundredth of the property[8].” But this need no longer be the case—traditional crafts are being rediscovered and families are making many of them “team sports.” Things on the following list are now being done by all—

home cooking/baking,

child minding,

dressmaking,

tailoring,

networking/sourcing/bartering[9],

yogurt making,

woodworking[10]/furniture production,

cakemaking,

candle making,

gardening (aka backyard homesteading),

cheese making,

beer brewing,

raising backyard chickens and/or ducks,

planting and harvesting fruit trees,

knitting,

load shifting—adding solar panels with battery storage[11],

clotheslines,

paying off your mortgage as quickly as possible[12],

hunting large game with old trucks in national parks (maybe 😊)

beautifying property with large shrubs/trees/creating a food forest[13]

retrofitting roof insulation where standards are poor[14]

Vertical urban farms

Andrew is also skeptical about the economics of vertical farming (as well as the lack of nutrition in they produce). And he is not alone[15].

He writes—

At the very least, vertical farming has to be direct to consumer but having the word “selling” in there is going to make it tough—all the regulatory issues, packaging, and taxes and other charges will likely kill them. They would have to be like strawberry farms back in the day: Give customers a basket and let them pick their own; the operator just weighs it at the register. But I can't see how that very, very, very expensive capital could ever pay for itself and the maintenance costs on those systems will be extreme. You have mineral rich water flowing through small pipes and pumps; it’ll be a clogging nightmare. You will have major condensation issues and molds will grow plus all sorts of ventilation problems. These can't be magically solved. They’ll need expensive energy and capital systems to deal with it. And in terms of this being “green,” not at all! These systems use steel and glass, and they are hugely energy intensive to make and run. There is no way to make that energy back over their economic lifetime. This is just some feel-good greenwashing.

By the way, you can make super cheap dome greenhouses using plastic sheeting and poly pipes that would have much less environmental impact. But places like Canada and the US Midwest aren’t ever going have economic, full-on heated greenhouses. If they go the cheap poly dome route and get more out of their shoulder seasons (that is, forgetting about December to February periods), they have a shot to make local produce work (better). Residents should simply put a bunch of raised garden beds with domes in their existing backyards over a weekend for something like $100 bucks.

Beautiful Legs Case Study

Andrew went hunting for a nice dining room table—one with actual real wood. Retail prices for this sort of thing were around $2,400 AUD at the time with a manufacturer’s rebate (coupon) available of $300[16] so a net effective price of $2,100. Thinking of proving his point once more about 1000% ROI being widely available but little known, he purchased 2 pairs of steel table legs for $85 and scrounged around for some old wooden planks, which he paid $105 for and set about doing some home woodworking himself. Again, his ROI is simple arithmetic—

pair of steel legs $85.00

solid wood planks $105.00

total cost (home-based) $190.00

retail price $2,100.00

margin $1,910.00

ROI 1005%

E&OE

This did take him a while to complete so you might want to factor that in, but frankly, when returns are likely measured in triple digits or quadruple ones, you can stop measuring.

Bruce M Firestone, [email protected] Andrew L Firestone, [email protected]

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[1] Image source, BitBytes - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=93170611.

[2] In a cold northern shelf city like Canada’s Capital City (Ottawa), you would probably get six months and then only if you start your seedlings inside.

[3] For example, check out the price of Miss Melons fresh beans here, https://www.missmelons.com.au/products/beans.

[4] By the way, it was Homer not an American cowboy who first used this expression, Hold your horses—it was in book 23 of the Iliad.

[5] Image source, Originally from en.wikipedia; description page is/was here. Original uploader was JW1805 at en.wikipedia, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=2171360.

[6] Image source, Teamsamuraispain - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=43516357.

[7] Bear in mind you don't compare your homegrown product against the cheapest produce available, but rather the freshest and best versions. When looking for crops to grow, probably best to focus on high nutrient and relatively high-cost foods.

[8] Said then President of the Canadian International Development Agency (Marcel Masse) in 1982, https://www.upi.com/Archives/1982/07/06/Women-do-two-thirds-of-the-worlds-working-hours-but/9167394776000/.

[9] Historically, women were (are) balancing out equity across communities and sharing useful information more widely. For example, a homemaker learns that a neighbor needs to clean out their stables. Next, the homemaker’s life partner helps muck out the stables and, in return, they receive a free load of manure for their backyard homestead garden. This networking/socializing is crucial in a tax-free, bartering-based, local economy...

[10] Think woodworking is one of humanity’s older art forms and that traditional skillsets have been (mostly) developed in the time period covered by recorded history (around 10,000 years)? Not so. Read this article about a recent archaeological discovery in Zambia of a log platform or shelter constructed 476,000 years ago by stone-age people. Some type of hominid accomplished this feat including notching the logs to make a better fit/stronger structure, https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66846772. The BBC article is based on a paper published in the Nature journal, Evidence for the earliest structural use of wood at least 476,000 years ago, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06557-9.

[11] Unfortunately, according to a CSIRO study, solar hot water does not produce the desired ROI.

[12] Apparently, paying off your car loan early is not important, probably because cars are, for the most part, a depreciating asset.

[13] Tree planting improves property values by about 6%, provides shade, cooling, and wind protection, as well as fresh air. Combining that with a food forest increases ROI further…

[14] Returns of about 40% for your roof, 20% for walls and 5% for floors.

[15] For example, refer to: Vertical Farming Has Found Its Fatal Flaw, https://www.wired.co.uk/article/vertical-farms-energy-crisis.

[16] Car/boat/RV (caravan)/truck manufacturers have been using this “charade” for a long time. Here’s how it works—their distributors/dealers/shops sell Jane and John a car/boat/RV/caravan/truck/piece of furniture/whatever for $5,000. There is also a separate coupon which promises them a 15% manufacturer’s rebate (ie, $750) later on… Now, Jane and John aren’t rich dudes, so they finance (say) 100% of their purchase with some kind of a buy-now-pay-later lender. The lender sees they paid $5,000 so they lend John and Jane $5,000. But the manufacturer subsequently snail mails a check/cheque to John and Jane or otherwise reimburses them for their coupon in the amount of $750. Presto magic, John and Jane have their new car/boat/RV/caravan/truck/piece of furniture/whatever plus they also have $750 in cash now. What’s interesting about this is that the $750 cash back is not considered income in the hands of John and Jane, so they don’t have to pay any personal income tax on it. For the manufacturer, it’s an allowable expense (reduction in their income) so it too lowers their overall tax burden. Of course, John and Jane are now on the hook for repayment of $5,000 plus interest. But most people, especially young people and entrepreneurs of any age, have very high personal future discount rates so cash-in-hand might look good compared with a future payment plan of some sort.

#backyard homesteading

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profbruce · 5 months

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Imagine a county or town that required you to show every seacan stored in your yard on a site plan? This would require a SPA (site plan amendment) every time your industrial products company received or shipped out a container, an impossible undertaking. Could such a place exist? Apparently so.

#urban planners

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profbruce · 8 months

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Claudio in Merida Mexico has his own PB4L (personal business for life)

His name is Claudio. He comes to Merida (where there are wealthy tourists) from Oaxaca (gastronomic capital of Mexico) once a year to sell his beautiful handmade cotton/bamboo blankets door-to-door.

Besides himself, there are three other people who work with him (both men and women).

He comes by car and it takes a day or more (17-hours and 54-minutes drive time according to google) to get to Merida.

These blankets sell for around 1,500 to 1,800 pesos each depending on how good a negotiator you are as a buyer… We bought one.

They are machine washable and dryable.

This photo was taken at our front door. Claudio was nearing the end of his mission having already sold several hundred blankets.

Claudio doesn’t speak much English (actually none) so my spouse Dawn did the translating, while I did the negotiating.

They grow their own cotton and bamboo and make their own cloth.

This is another PB4L story… It’s my belief that most of us (wherever we live) need some kind of side hustle we can call our own; one we can rely on when everything else fails. It would help too if we owned some real estate as well, even if it’s a modest home, hopefully with little or no debt on either the business or real estate.

Prof Bruce

FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS COACHING THAT’LL HELP YOU PROVIDE FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY FOR 3-GENERATIONS, PLEASE CONTACT:

Bruce M Firestone, B Eng (civil), M Eng-Sci, PhD Real Estate Investment and Business coach Ottawa Senators founder ROYAL LePAGE Performance Realty broker 613-762-8884 [email protected] brucemfirestone.com https://burningrocksolutions.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/profbruce https://www.linkedin.com/company/firestoneinstitute https://brucemfirestone.com/blog/ https://www.youtube.com/user/ProfBruce/ https://www.amazon.com/author/brucefirestone https://twitter.com/ProfBruce https://www.facebook.com/groups/reiroi https://www.facebook.com/ProfBruce https://www.instagram.com/brucemfirestone/ https://profbruce.tumblr.com/archive https://www.tiktok.com/@prof.bruce7

BOOK YOUR FREE CLARITY CALL WITH PROF BRUCE NOW, https://brucemfirestone.com/coaching/prof-bruce-real-estate-investment-and-business-coaching/talk/

• MAKING IMPOSSIBLE POSSIBLE • FREEDOM VIA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND PB4L, PERSONAL BUSINESS FOR LIFE • FEHAJ, FOR EVERY HOME A JOB, FEJAH, FOR EVERY JOB A HOME • MAKE YOUR HOME WORK FOR YOU, INSTEAD OF YOU WORKING FOR IT • HIGHER ROI NOT JUST FOR OWNERS AND INVESTORS, BUT FOR TENANTS, GUESTS, VISITORS, NEIGHBORHOODS, COMMUNITIES, TOWNS, VILLAGES, CITIES AND THE ENVIRONMENT TOO

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#side hustle

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profbruce · 1 year

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Getting ready to greet the Senators under new ownership in my Rodeo Drive designed jacket next season! Go Sens!

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profbruce · 1 year

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Hi there Bruce! Long time! Life threw me a curve ball recently, which made me remember a story you told (or maybe I read it on a blog post?) that vaguely resembled something like "you have 2 days to get back on your feet". I believe it was advice you gave a friend who just got divorced and lost all his money. My situation is different but I'd love to hear/read that one again! If it's on your blog can you please link me to it? Google didn't help me out :)

Can you send me an email about this, Nick? I'll find it :) [email protected]

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profbruce · 1 year

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White Angel of Merida Mexico

This silent angel in downtown Merida (aka Centro) offers you one slip of paper to guide your future. For 20 pesos, mine read (in Spanish), “Sometimes you win, sometimes you learn.” #Excellent message.

White Angel of Merida

This young woman dresses up every Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday in her angel costume, which she designed and fabbed herself. She stations herself outside Merida’s cathedral in their central square.

In front of Merida’s central cathedral

For a modest donation (such as my measly 20 pesos, about $1 USD) in her jar, which you can see at her feet, you draw one tiny piece of paper from her cup. She only “speaks” in gestures, ie, she’s a mime… She graces you with a smile as well.

I estimated she makes up to 1,200 pesos an hour (around $60 USD). It’s a good gig and she’s a fine artist/actress/mime in her own right. It’s another PB4L, personal business for life, or side hustle. Beats begging, right? Or waiting on tables if you are a young actress waiting for your next gig.

Makes people feel good too and, of course, it doesn’t hurt that she’s a beauty.

Prof Bruce

ps here’s Chris Rock’s latest (foul-mouthed) take on the power of female beauty (on Netflix), https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/chris-rock-live-standup-special. The title of his hour-long rant? “Selective Outrage.” A decent review is on Variety, https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/chris-rock-slap-will-smith-netflix-comedy-special-1235542611/. #NSFO #RatedR

pps I have a theory that pretty much everyone needs some sort of PB4L to get them through the tough patches that almost all of us will face during our time on this planet. You can read more at:

Should Every Person on the Planet Have a PB4L (Personal Business for Life)? https://www.dropbox.com/s/bpqc508879tsdwk/PB4L-personal-business-for-life-bruce-m-firestone.pdf?dl=0.

FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS COACHING THAT’LL HELP YOU PROVIDE FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY FOR 3-GENERATIONS, PLEASE CONTACT:

BOOK YOUR FREE CLARITY CALL WITH PROF BRUCE NOW, https://brucemfirestone.com/coaching/prof-bruce-real-estate-investment-and-business-coaching/talk/

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#SideHustle #Gig #entrepreneur #PB4L

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profbruce · 2 years

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Path to creating affordable housing is out there but only possible if cities and towns make it so

Are you familiar with the BBC series From Lark Rise to Candleford? It’s about life in two neighboring places in the late 19th century—one a poor rural village called Lark Rise where life is a struggle, and tother being a more prosperous town called Candleford.

They are 8-miles apart with a muddy track the only “road” to get to Lark Rise. The reason I ask, other than the fact that my wife and I enjoy the series (we detest modern Hollywood storytelling with guns, drugs, car chases, murders, superheroes, bombs and so forth), is I took this picture on the weekend from our home theater screen of Lark Rise—

I realized with a start that such an affordable village could never be built today with all the modern zoning, official plan and site plan rules that are in place. #WhatAShame

So, this got me to thinking—maybe the city I live in (or for that matter any town) should, instead of trying to reform their rules, which seems impossible to do without fomenting a (non-violent) revolution and overthrowing the current powers-that-be/turfing out the entire civil service and the consulting industry that has grown around it to support such a perverted process and land use system, take on the responsibility to do all the required studies and the humongous costs associated with them so we can get back to creating a) livable places and b) affordable homes.

Given the enormous cost of (for example) complying with site plan requirements (estimated by me and my planner at $121,000+) so my family can build a $135,000, 542 sq ft bunkie next to our barndominium workshop for one of our daughters to live in, there is NO POSSIBILITY of doing such a project unless you are a dumb rich dude with money to burn. But if you have to spend $121,000 on a site plan application and studies, you might as well build a 8,000 sq ft McMansion instead, right? So much for affordable housing.

What I am thinking of is this: A city or town creates facilitator positions and office... facilitators are tasked with guiding important projects through city and state or province requirements, whether it is a mega project like a 1 million sq ft fulfillment center or a tiny bunkie like we want to construct. In the former case, speed matters most. In the latter circumstance, cost matters more so facilitators would have a budget for studies/consultants etc.

There would be a process to apply to a facilitator office for acceptance to their program.

In addition, there would be a “parallel” process—every time an Official Plan or Master Plan review is conducted by a city or town, landowners could also apply to have their properties reviewed and rezoned at city or town cost.

This actually happened a few weeks ago—a client of mine is buying a 20+ acre site in a small town zoned CH, highway commercial. It allows mini warehousing (mini storage) but incongruously does not permit larger warehousing. My client has a lead on a use—for a large scale warehouse use—which is currently not permitted.

However, the local planner (at her initiative!) offered to include a request from my client to amend their Official Plan during their ongoing review at no cost to my client! So, it does happen (occasionally).

If we don’t find a way to make cities and towns more adaptable, especially in a pandemic or post-pandemic society and now a world at war too where everything is changing around us at lightspeed and, for example, where lots of young people (and not so young) want a simpler life—smaller places, more affordable homes, a live-work condition, we will end up with a horrible result—more homelessness, more people working themselves to death trying to put a roof over their heads and bread on their tables. What do you think?

Prof Bruce

FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS COACHING THAT'LL HELP YOU PROVIDE FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY FOR 3-GENERATIONS, PLEASE CONTACT:

Bruce M Firestone, B Eng (civil), M Eng-Sci, PhD

Real Estate Investment and Business coach

Ottawa Senators founder

ROYAL LePAGE Performance Realty broker

613-762-8884

[email protected]

brucemfirestone.com

https://www.linkedin.com/in/profbruce

profbruce.tumblr.com/archive

BOOK YOUR FREE CLARITY CALL WITH PROF BRUCE NOW, https://brucemfirestone.com/coaching/prof-bruce-real-estate-investment-and-business-coaching/talk/

• MAKING IMPOSSIBLE POSSIBLE

• FREEDOM VIA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND PB4L, PERSONAL BUSINESS FOR LIFE

• FEHAJ, FOR EVERY HOME A JOB, FEJAH, FOR EVERY JOB A HOME

• MAKE YOUR HOME WORK FOR YOU, INSTEAD OF YOU WORKING FOR IT

• HIGHER ROI NOT JUST FOR OWNERS AND INVESTORS, BUT FOR TENANTS, GUESTS, VISITORS, NEIGHBORHOODS, COMMUNITIES, TOWNS, VILLAGES, CITIES AND THE ENVIRONMENT TOO

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#affordable housing #architecture #urban planning

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profbruce · 2 years

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The Value of Sticking Together, The Value of Trust

Bruce M Firestone, PhD

Most people know about the prisoner’s dilemma even if it’s just intuitively rather than explicitly—

Two people are accused of a joint crime. Police detectives put both suspects in individual interrogation rooms. They offer each of them a deal—if you’re first to talk, you’ll get jail time of just two years. If the other party talks first (ie, rats you out before you can do the same to them), you get 9-years, and the other accused gets 2.

What they don’t tell you is that if you both stick together (ie, don’t talk), you both get 3 and ½ years.

In the first scenario, total prison time is 11-years; in the second, it’s only 7. So, it makes sense for both of you to stick together. However, the temptation is to go for the 2 before the other person can. What do you do?

More importantly, you have to ask yourself: What will your partner in crime do? Will they hold fast to the plan and not rat you out.

It’s same deal in the military—

Three troopers are in a foxhole together. They are under severe attack that threatens to overrun their position. If you run but the other two soldiers stick thereby holding up the attackers whilst you make your escape, your chances of surviving are 0.667, but theirs are just 0.333 each. Of course, you are a coward, but you’re alive and they are (likely) dead.

If you all run away, your attackers will probably kill you all—each of you have just a 0.167 change of surviving (it’s much each easier to render someone deceased if you shoot them in the back while they are fleeing). Now, you are all cowards and all dead.

But if the three of you stick together in the tranche and keep firing, your chances of survival as a group go up to 0.500 each.

In scenario 1, your collective probability of survival is 1.333, in scenario 2, just 0.501. However, in scenario 3, it jumps to 1.500. Hence, sticking together is best but again you must ask yourself the questions: What will your fellow marines do?

Now how about a civilian example? OK, let’s try tech—

You and a fellow coder are co-managers of a team of hackers. You’ve both heard that a competitor is looking to recruit whole teams to speed up a new product launch. You know if you go over first, you’ll get a salary of $250,000 but if your co-manager goes first, s/he gets that $250k, you only get $125k. If you both go over together (which shows a) you’re not desperate and b) strengthens your bargaining position), you both get $200,000.

So, sticking together creates total compensation of $400,000. Splitting apart, you get a total $375,000 and one of you is a big loser.

Again, ask the question: How much do you trust your co-manager?

Fear of loss in humans is much greater than desire for gain, which means most people are hugely tempted to be first to rat out a co-conspirator, first to desert their fellow foot soldiers or first to get their foot in the door for a new job.

Trust is hard to establish and quick to vanish.

Prof Bruce

Postscript: Here’s a great piece by Brené Brown called Anatomy of Trust; it’s worth watching, https://youtu.be/WuzXTQGFsOw.

youtube

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FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS COACHING THAT'LL HELP YOU PROVIDE FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY FOR 3-GENERATIONS, PLEASE CONTACT:

Bruce M Firestone, B Eng (civil), M Eng-Sci, PhD

Real Estate Investment and Business coach

Ottawa Senators founder

ROYAL LePAGE Performance Realty broker

613-762-8884

[email protected]

brucemfirestone.com

https://burningrocksolutions.com/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/profbruce

https://www.linkedin.com/company/firestoneinstitute

https://brucemfirestone.com/blog/

profbruce.tumblr.com/archive

https://www.youtube.com/user/ProfBruce/

https://twitter.com/ProfBruce

https://www.facebook.com/groups/reiroi

https://www.facebook.com/ProfBruce

https://www.instagram.com/brucemfirestone/

BOOK YOUR FREE CLARITY CALL WITH PROF BRUCE NOW, https://brucemfirestone.com/coaching/prof-bruce-real-estate-investment-and-business-coaching/talk/

• MAKING IMPOSSIBLE POSSIBLE

• FREEDOM VIA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND PB4L, PERSONAL BUSINESS FOR LIFE

• FEHAJ, FOR EVERY HOME A JOB, FEJAH, FOR EVERY JOB A HOME

• MAKE YOUR HOME WORK FOR YOU, INSTEAD OF YOU WORKING FOR IT

• HIGHER ROI NOT JUST FOR OWNERS AND INVESTORS, BUT FOR TENANTS, GUESTS, VISITORS, NEIGHBORHOODS, COMMUNITIES, TOWNS, VILLAGES, CITIES AND THE ENVIRONMENT TOO

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First published, https://brucemfirestone.com/the-value-of-sticking-together/.

Download from, https://www.dropbox.com/s/pa163ixj939jqgn/value-of-sticking-together-value-of-trust-bruce-m-firestone-phd.pdf?dl=0.

Feature image: By ChaoticBrain – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=79884144.

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#trust

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profbruce · 3 years

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Murals are a powerful tool to revive urban areas

Theming downtown Belleville

By Bruce Firestone PhD | Architecture

Oct 26, 2021

Murals are a powerful catalyst in terms of reviving and improving urban areas. For example, Jane Golden started a program in Philadelphia to bring graffiti artists “in from the cold.” The Mural Arts Program (www.muralarts.org) in Philly employs over 300 artists each year and teaches more than 1,000 young people the art of creating murals at no cost to the students. 5,000+ tourists each year enjoy mural tours in that city.

You can read more about Jane Golden’s story and the Philadelphia MAP (mural arts program) here, https://www.muralarts.org/about/about-jane-golden/. I would strongly recommend you reach out to her directly: [email protected] 215-685-0760. She’s an inspiration and could help you get a MAP launched in your city, town or village.

I am involved in an effort to resuscitate downtown Belleville, a small Ontario town about 1-hour and 45-minutes east of the Big Smoke (aka Toronto). I have partnered with local education institution, Loyalist College, to bring an accelerator program to down Belleville opening in January 2022. They will take part of the ground floor of a nearly 150-year-old, 3-story multi-use building we are renovating there.

In addition to the startup factory, there will be an adjacent ground floor apartment for their EIR (entrepreneur-in-residence) program. Startups that are mentored/coached tend to grow fast and survive longer than ones that have to learn everything on their own. Having a mentor live and work in the building is a powerful way to get anywhere from 20 to 40 gigs and gigpreneurs off the ground every year or two.

It doesn't take many entrepreneurs living and working in your community to completely change the nature of your town. Think about your city, now and in the past: Conjure up an image of the men and women who started local businesses that altered the history (and future) of your neighborhood, your town, your region, your state or province, maybe even the entire nation? It shouldn't take you long to think of a few...

A mural can be a work of art, but it can be an advertisement too. Loyalist has my permission to add this mural to the side of your building—

To pay for the cost of hiring a muralist and doing the work, I have suggested they reach out for a sponsor or two whose contributions can be discreetly acknowledged by incorporating somehow a thank you on the wall.

This has real value. A billboard can cost a lot—even in a small town like Ottawa Canada (my hometown for now), one side of a billboard can cost $3,500 a month on a street that has about 15,000 ppd (people per day including vehicular and pedestrian traffic), which works out to $3,500/(15,000 ppd x 30 days/month or $7.78 per thousand pairs of eyeballs. This is how a lot of advertising is sold—what is the cost per thousand views, aka CPM. It can range from a low of $5 per thousand for a bus board to $20 for a high-end magazine to $60 for targeted Google ads to $120 per thousand (for, say, postcard or flyer delivery by USPS of CPC).

I am also encouraging Loyalist to sell the naming rights to the incubator as well as naming internal spaces (corridors, offices, boardrooms) after sponsors as well as begin a startup fund that lends small amounts of capital (say $5,000) to fledgling companies (not all of them tech either BTW). These loans would be contingently repaid—ie, if the biz fails, nothing is owed. If the business succeeds, they pay a 2% royalty on sales for seven years as a giveback to the accelerator. Imagine if one of them achieves say a run rate of $10 million in sales per annum within that time period? A 2% giveback is $200,000 per year so this could be quite the thing for accelerating the accelerator!

Theming

I am big on theming things. I coach a number of folks who put their buildings on home sharing platforms like Airbnb.

One super host I coach put her 1-bedroom log home in the middle of "nowhere" (Wakefield Quebec) on the platform, https://www.airbnb.ca/rooms/21884842?source_impression_id=p3_1635251333_Jut2ZaRkfiXVG289&guests=1&adults=1. She themed the place as a truly Canadian place and billed it as a "romantic getaway," leave the kids at home (please).

The results have been fantastic. The worse the weather gets (Canada has really nice people but terrible weather), the busier she gets! Her realtor told her when she bought the place that she could rent it for $900 to $1,000 a month. Instead, she makes over $5k and sometimes even $6k monthly.

Theming helped with that.

So, why not theme our building on Front Street or for that matter the whole of downtown Belleville.

I've been pondering this. Maybe the right theme for 249-253 Front Street is as a "learning" and "making" and "creating" building? We already have Loyalist in the structure, and we are creating other artisan/workshop/makerspaces not to mention a bunch of nice apartments (some of which will be on Airbnb). What if one of our artisan spaces was rented to a cigar box guitar maker (I actually have a tenant in one of my buildings in Ottawa who designs and fabricates such things). Maybe an Airbnb guest will want to visit and stay awhile. Learn about guitar making? Join an impromptu concert?

I know that Carolyn Butts and her business and life partner, Hans Honegger, reinvented Tamworth, a tiny town not too far from TO and Belleville. They bought old, beat-up buildings that no one else wanted and fixed them up for the MTR (medium term rental) market and made both affordable residential apartments and workshops available where creatives could come, write their magnum opus, create their next new product or service, or meet with their teams in a quiet setting. It's remade not only Tamworth but Carolyn and Hans' life too. read more here, https://brucemfirestone.com/animate-a-whole-town/.

A village of fewer than 500-people (Hobart, New York) is home to not one or two bookstores but five indie shops along their main street, which has totally remade their town. People from NYC and Boston (a few hours away by car) flock there to purchase "a leather-bound collection of classical verse, or a set of classic political essays." [Source: https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/hobart-book-village?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=atlas-page.]

Obviously, their theme is books and learning and experiences based on that. As Bill Bryson has written, "Books are TV for smart people."

Or how about only slightly larger Coombs BC? A Norwegian couple settled in this Vancouver Island community more than two generations ago. They set up an old country store with a sod roof. Grass roofs were common in Norway and cheap, so they brought this technology with them long before green roofs became a thing. The only problem is grass grows and YOU DO NOT WANT TO GET UP ON A SLOPED ROOF WITH A LAWN MOWER unless of course you feel like cutting off some toes or your whole foot in a horrible accident (this is a real problem BTW).

So, instead, they did what they did in the old country—they bought some goats and let them loose every summer to live on their roof (to eat their grass instead). Goats are much steadier on their four hooves than humans on their two spindly legs.

The place became knows as goats-on-the-roof and, if you can believe it, it became one of the top tourist attractions on the island.

#Sheesh Maybe Canuckleheads don't have much to do other than watch hockey and drink beer? You can read more at, https://brucemfirestone.com/goats-on-the-roof/.

Belleville = ?

So, what theme might work for Belleville? Hmm, I'm not sure. Let's look at some others first—

PEC (Prince Edward County), known as wine country Ontario

Ottawa, the nation's capital, Winterlude

Toronto, TIFF

New Orleans, bourbon/jazz/Mardi Gras/hurricanes

Calgary, Stampede

Savannah, home to Forest, Forest Gump

Quebec City, Winter Carnival

Vegas, instant weddings and even quicker divorces

I still don't know but maybe something among these would work?

-next to PEC (#JustKidding)

-home to gigpreneurs

-where makers go to affordably live-work-play-learn-create-socialize?

-foodie culture

-experience district

-crafting center

-escape from New York (err, Toronto), remote work hub

-party central like Nashtyville, aka Nashville, where you can hop aboard a downtown liquor wagon pulled by a farm tractor (#JustKidding)

-ice fishing on the Bay of Quinte

I really have no clue, do you???

Prof Bruce

FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS COACHING THAT'LL HELP YOU PROVIDE FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY FOR 3-GENERATIONS, PLEASE CONTACT:

Bruce M Firestone, B Eng (civil), M Eng-Sci, PhD Real Estate Investment and Business coach Ottawa Senators founder ROYAL LePAGE Performance Realty broker 613-762-8884 [email protected] brucemfirestone.com https://burningrocksolutions.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/profbruce https://brucemfirestone.com/blog/ profbruce.tumblr.com/archive https://www.youtube.com/user/ProfBruce/ https://twitter.com/ProfBruce https://www.facebook.com/groups/reiroi https://www.facebook.com/ProfBruce

BOOK YOUR FREE CLARITY CALL WITH PROF BRUCE NOW, https://brucemfirestone.com/coaching/prof-bruce-real-estate-investment-and-business-coaching/talk/

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#city #animation #theming #acclerator #startups #revival #live-work

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profbruce · 3 years

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The tinier the house, the more creative you need to be

The smaller the house you build, the more creative you need to be. One of my daughters is moving into her own home that is just 192 sq ft. She’ll live right next door to a small workshop (about 350 sq ft) where she will design and produce high fashion custom clothing for glamorous women so it’s a live-work (play) condition with a smaller ecological footprint.

PROOF CANADA, https://proofcanada.ca/

One issue though is what to do with her fraidy-cat by the name of Marty? Marty is her best bud but is her tiny house too small for both her and the cat?

Marty

Marty is pretty much afraid of everything and everyone except for her so finding a new home for the cat seems traumatic (for both of them, I think). I mean he won’t even go outside unless she puts a leash on him and walks with him, never more than 4-feet away… #Sheesh

My wife and daughter labored over this issue for quite some time. Where to put Marty’s litter box became the last issue to be resolved? Then, bingo, the solution presented itself… there is a piece of furniture next to the front door with coat hooks and places for boots and shoes below. What if they raised that and put Marty’s litter box underneath?

Our contractor, Pat O’Connor, and the girls came up with this solution–

There is a side entry (bolt hole) where Marty can enter to do his business and a door that opens to allows for the changing of his litter.

By the way, if you like the design, we’ll license the IP (intellectual property) to you. We have set a price of 1 cent per year for 1,000,000 years, which works out to a total of $10,000! Mind you, the PV (present value) of that is only about a dime.

I’ll have much more to say about tiny living in the future…

Prof Bruce

postscript: a few more pics of her (not quite finished) place:

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#TinyHouse #CabinInTheWoods #Design #Creativity

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profbruce · 3 years

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It would be daffy to sell this house

We helped one of my daughters buy a home four years ago for $345,000. We added a basement apartment for $80k so her total cost is about $425,000. We had it appraised last month—after insane pandemic-induced appreciation, it’s now worth $760,000 according to a local appraiser.

First thing she said to me after we received the appraisal was, “Dad, let’s sell it! Imagine how much cash we’d have!”

I discouraged this by noting:

1. She might just blow the money in a couple of years

2. She’d be without any inflation protection

3. Since her tenant is helping pay off her mortgage, she wouldn’t benefit from any wealth effect (mortgage paydown by tenants)

4. Mortgage paydown is like forced savings—unless folks force themselves to save, most won’t

5. She would have no protection against future impoverishment as an elder

6. Imagine what this property will be worth when she is my age (40-years from now)

7. Since part of the home is rental, she might have to pay some capital gains taxes if she sold it

8. Even if she keeps the cash around, interest from her bank would be much lower then what she is making by holding onto the property in terms of both cashflow and appreciation not to mention wealth effect from mortgage paydown…

9. She has to live somewhere

10. Transaction costs (legal fees and realtor commissions) are significant not to mention that the time required to a) sell the place and b) buy another one

What did I do?

I “bribed” her to keep it.

We put a HELOC (home equity line of credit) in place so she could access some of its growth in value and give herself some walking around cashish without having to sell

As Warren Buffett once said, “My favorite hold period is… forever,” or something like that.

Prof Bruce

FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS COACHING THAT’LL HELP YOU PROVIDE FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY FOR 3-GENERATIONS, PLEASE CONTACT:

Bruce M Firestone, B Eng (civil), M Eng-Sci, PhD Real Estate Investment and Business coach Ottawa Senators founder ROYAL LePAGE Performance Realty broker 613-762-8884 [email protected] brucemfirestone.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/profbruce https://brucemfirestone.com/blog/ profbruce.tumblr.com/archive https://www.youtube.com/user/ProfBruce/ https://twitter.com/ProfBruce https://www.facebook.com/groups/reiroi https://www.facebook.com/ProfBruce

BOOK YOUR FREE CLARITY CALL WITH PROF BRUCE NOW, https://brucemfirestone.com/coaching/prof-bruce-real-estate-investment-and-business-coaching/talk/

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#warren buffett #when to sell

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profbruce · 3 years

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Making Retail Spaces Pandemic/Internet/Big Box Store Resistant

At the beginning of this pandemic, folks asked me what I thought would happen to real estate values. I believed office and shopping mall valuations would fall out of bed while industrial and residential would hold their own. The latter because people always need a place to live; the former because I thought nations (including Canada and the US) would have to re-shore a lot of production since international supply chains might become reliable.

I got it right except for residential… where prices took off in a quite unexpected (at least to me) way.

Anyhow, since the pandemic began, we—my clients and I—have acted on this forecast. We’ve been investing in industrial buildings, multi residential apartments and mixed-use structures (basically, commercial at grade with apartments above) with some success.

Now, Prof Bruce, you might be thinking, why would you invest in buildings with commercial at grade? Didn’t you just write (see above) that retail space (shopping malls) would fall in value?

Yes, I did. But we have been focused on creating retail spaces that are pandemic, big box store & internet-resistant; this requires some innovation.

For example, here’s a French bakery on Front Street in Belleville ON with a slider window providing easy curbside pickup, ie, it’s a pedestrian “drive-thru.”

If you think about the bakery, it’s French so it’s automatically differentiated from picking up a loaf of Donald Duck white bread from a mass market retailer. I’d say that qualifies them as “big-box store-resistant.” In fact, there are (socially distant) outside lineups every Sunday to pick up their hot, chocolate-filled croissants. I know because I bought some myself.

You can also pre-order online (which we did) so it has an internet presence, which means it isn’t solely dependent on walk-in traffic… Plus, it’s likely that folks prefer ordering their croissants for either pickup or home delivery from the bakery instead of Amazon.

I reckon that this store meets all three of my tests for success today…

Prof Bruce

FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS COACHING THAT’LL HELP YOU PROVIDE FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY FOR 3-GENERATIONS, PLEASE CONTACT:

Bruce M Firestone, B Eng (civil), M Eng-Sci, PhD Real Estate Investment and Business coach Ottawa Senators founder ROYAL LePAGE Performance Realty broker 613-762-8884 [email protected] brucemfirestone.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/profbruce https://brucemfirestone.com/blog/ profbruce.tumblr.com/archive https://www.youtube.com/user/ProfBruce/ https://twitter.com/ProfBruce https://www.facebook.com/groups/reiroi https://www.facebook.com/ProfBruce

BOOK YOUR FREE CLARITY CALL WITH PROF BRUCE NOW, https://brucemfirestone.com/coaching/prof-bruce-real-estate-investment-and-business-coaching/talk/

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Image source: Flibirigit at en.wikipedia – Self-taken photo, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=15731187

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#retail space #pandemic

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profbruce · 3 years

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22 ways to get more listings

Since a number of my readers and coaching clients are realtors, I thought I’d lay something down here for them. They’ve all heard, “You have to list to last,” and since it is spring, well, here’re 22 tips—

Lawn signs work

So, do free webinars

And doorhangers or flyers[1]

Develop a decent email list (legally, of course[2]); email still works

Start your own newsletter

Write and self-publish a book and give away a bazillion free e-copies of it

Speak to sell—get invited to talk to local organizations about what you do and especially why you do what you do, give away yet more e-copies of your book

Collect testimonials from satisfied clients and publish them everywhere—on your blog on your social media, in your book, on your personal website—everyone reads those things

Offer free “clarity” calls on zoom for prospective clients

Record some voiceover videos highlighting case studies of how you helped previous clients overcome issues and problems and achieve success then put them on your YouTube channel and promote them everywhere or record learning outcome videos like this one I did to teach folks how to calculate cap (capitalization) rates when buying property: How to properly analyze real estate investments using a spreadsheet, cap rates 3 Splinter example, https://youtu.be/OlYB7FLqZYU

Set up a referral network where you refer clients to good quality suppliers—mortgage brokers, home stagers, designers, renovators, painters, landscapers, contractors, storage places (for de-cluttering, for example), moving companies, packing supplies, real estate attorneys, divorce lawyers, lenders, appraisers, planners, architects, architectural technologists, environmental companies, snow contractors, window washers, PSWs[3], tax accountants, investors, financial planners, homebuilders, developers and so forth—and they refer clients back to you

Have an open house AFTER you sell a place—nosy neighbors will show up and then some of them may want to list their nearby properties with you

Offer property management services and portfolio management[4]—optimize client portfolios by helping them buy more of the right stuff and dump (ie, list) their losers

Offer to do (paid and free) CMAs (comparative market analyses) for prospective clients so that they can learn the value of their properties

Learn what a PAAN (Property Animation and Analysis) Report is and offer to do (paid) reports for prospective and existing clients so that they understand what the HABU (highest and best use) and best animation strategy are for each property they own, may want to buy or, indeed, sell[5]

Create your own clients; for example, I teach realtors and others something I call the “makeover model,” which is different from flipping or wholesaling—you can watch this video training on the subject to learn more[6], https://youtu.be/PRicFG69Cto.

Become an investment realtor and have a stable of investors at the ready so you can truthfully say to a would-be seller that you have buyers standing by to purchase their property

Broaden your pitch to include NEWPIN[7] advice—try to become a lifetime adviser for your clients—if you always put your clients first, you’ll always have clients

Develop and giveaway your own promotional product like Prof Bruce’s wrist bands[8] that have four words engraved on them: act, believe, verify, no

Prof Bruce’s youngest son, Matthew, modelling his wrist bands…

Become a spreadsheet and finance pro so you can help sellers and buyers better understand not only the value of property but also how to properly finance it

Answer your phone calls, emails, messages either the same day or the next day but not later… ever—communicate (!) and remember this—the harder you work, the luckier you’ll get

Finally, always remember to ask, “Do you want fries with that,” ask your residential clients if they need help with any commercial work and vice versa as well as ask them for referrals to others who may need your services.

Easy peasy, right?

Prof Bruce

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FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS COACHING THAT’LL HELP YOU PROVIDE FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY FOR 3-GENERATIONS, PLEASE CONTACT:

Bruce M Firestone, B Eng (civil), M Eng-Sci, PhD

Real Estate Investment and Business coach

Ottawa Senators founder

ROYAL LePAGE Performance Realty broker

613-762-8884

[email protected]

brucemfirestone.com

https://www.linkedin.com/in/profbruce

profbruce.tumblr.com/archive

https://www.youtube.com/user/ProfBruce/

https://www.facebook.com/groups/reiroi

https://www.facebook.com/ProfBruce

BOOK YOUR FREE CLARITY CALL WITH PROF BRUCE NOW, https://brucemfirestone.com/coaching/prof-bruce-real-estate-investment-and-business-coaching/talk/

• MAKING IMPOSSIBLE POSSIBLE

• FREEDOM VIA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND PB4L, PERSONAL BUSINESS FOR LIFE

• FEHAJ, FOR EVERY HOME A JOB, FEJAH, FOR EVERY JOB A HOME

• MAKE YOUR HOME WORK FOR YOU, INSTEAD OF YOU WORKING FOR IT

• HIGHER ROI NOT JUST FOR OWNERS AND INVESTORS, BUT FOR TENANTS, GUESTS, VISITORS, NEIGHBORHOODS, COMMUNITIES, TOWNS, VILLAGES, CITIES AND THE ENVIRONMENT TOO

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[1] Because I am a buy and hold guy, I’d probably take a wacky approach and put DON’T SELL YOUR HOUSE on my flyers, doorhangers and lawn signs. I’d try to convince folks to not list their homes; instead, they could refi them and buy (through my brokerage, for example) more property and thus build their portfolio that way. I follow a BARF strategy: Buy Animate Rehab Renovate Rent Reappraise Refinance Rinse & Repeat (with OPM) Financing methodology! It’s a riff on the BRRR Strategy, which stands for Buy-Rehab-Renovate-Refinance.

[2] I often advertise, for example in BIA newsletters in areas where I want to develop a client base.

[3] Personal support workers for your elderly clients.

[4] I have a business model I am dying for someone else (other than moi) to try. It’s called Workey. The idea is to provide paid neighborhood help to folks living near you or in areas where you want to farm for clients. I have a few Workeys working for me—they do house (and commercial) cleaning for clients, landscaping, snow removal, window washing, personal shopping, minor renovations and repairs and much more. We get paid for this work (and I keep a bit, the Workeys get the balance). When a client needs realtor help or coaching assistance, they will often then turn to Prof Bruce. Comprehendo? It’s like a Greek gift (ie, a Trojan Horse) only this one makes money not war. If you are interested, check out the video training I did on this O-YES plan, https://youtu.be/boWFlQumAaY. O-YES = one-year exit strategy or how you can stop working for someone else and BYOB, be-your-own-boss. I have another part to this model that is really far out. What if you bought a home in a neighborhood you are interested in farming for clients and stuffed that home with Workeys, who then fan out thru the neighborhood and do their work, maybe even being able to walk to work some of the time? Workeys would pay rent, live in a nice place with collegial others and have a “guaranteed” JOB. It’d be a cool way to build a personal real estate portfolio too… with “guaranteed” tenants/residents. The tagline I came up with is FRIENDS HELPING FRIENDS because the idea (the thing that makes Workey different) is that, for example, Workeys are dedicated to individual clients. Hence, unlike Uber or Task Rabbit, you get the same cleaners, landscapers, personal shoppers, snow shovelers, window washers or PSWs each and every time rather than some random person assigned by an app nicknamed “SKYNET.”

[5] Part of any good listing is creating a spellbinding story about any property thereby making it an irresistibly appealing opportunity to a prospective buyer. To do that you need to know both HABU and PAAN

[6] Basically, for realtors, it’s about buying a property (often with investor help), then animating it by, for example, adding a self-contained microsuite (aka studio apartment) or basement apartment (and thus adding REAL value not lipstick), after which they sell it for a profit. They do this a few times to build up their cash position and keep their investors happy too. This is their “cash engine,” after which they keep a few to build wealth. So, if you do, say, eight in five years with the help of two investors (who together own 1/3 of each property while the realtor owns 2/3), maybe you sell five of them and keep three. Next, you graduate to a non-partnership, partnership model. “What’s that?” you ask. It’s how you can exit without exiting. That is, you separate out—your 1/3 investor partners now own one property 100% and your 2/3 is exchanged for two 100% owned properties. This is how you avoid the two chairs in Heaven problem as in, “There are two chairs in Heaven waiting for the first two partners to get there and still like each other.” By separating out this way, you can accommodate different agendas—maybe the investors want to sell but the realtor wants to keep her/his properties? This way, there is no conflict…

[7] NEWPIN is my term for “new era financial plan.” It’s my theory that most people need to own some real estate and their own PB4L (personal business for life) in order to have a decent retirement. Relying on government to do this for you is probably unwise. My NEWPINs have eight pillars: 1) Real estate investment portfolio, 2) Iron reserve (cash and near-cash), 3) Business interests, PB4L, 4) Insurance (mainly term insurance), 5) IPP, independent pension plan, 6) KISS, keep your structure simple & your focus tight, 7) Pass on to your heirs efficiently & effectively, 8) Giveback to your community.

[8] One of my daughters call them “Brucelets.” I call them the @ProfBruce Power Circle bands.

FEATURE IMAGE SOURCE: Release poster by Metro Pictures Immediate source, https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0014517/mediaviewer/rm2369805824, PD-US-expired, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=60922042.

#Realtors #steps to success

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profbruce · 3 years

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What will our economy look like after the global pandemic subsides?

By Bruce M Firestone, PhD

I am optimistic that the global economy will recover but it will be vastly different. Overall, it may not only be a more localized economy but a more productive one too as weaker players get weeded out and some industries fade while others surge. It’s also likely that the surpluses produced by revamped economies will be even more unevenly divided, which certainly could lead to more political unrest and stronger calls for government action to address inequality, which itself may be problematic since so many government programs have unintended and often negative consequences. The challenges to every sector of society will be acute.

[1]

Anyway, here are some predictions (70 fearless predictions!) about what the shape of the world order might look like. Remember this however—no one including the author really knows what will happen in a month let alone a few years but still I try:

Marginal businesses that were trading “four quarters for a dollar” before the pandemic began will be toast

Retail space will be decimated and have to be re-positioned to uses that are a) pandemic-resistant, b) big box store-resistant and c) internet-resistant not to mention that they will have to accommodate a wider range of options including live-work at grade and WFH (work-from-home)

Demand for office space will plummet and, again, office towers will need to be reworked into multi use places…

Industrial production and demand for industrial space will increase as international trading partners come to distrust each other and global supply chains give way (in part) to more local production

Grow local will be even more of thing

Agricultural land will increase in value not for speculation purposes but to produce more food stuffs and demand for seasonal plots/micro gardens within an hour or so of towns and cities will rise

Homes in desirable cities will continue to accelerate in value

Small towns within an hour or two of larger centers will boom

Demand for highrise condominiums and apartments will moderate or drop

Work from home will become a permanent feature of modern economies

Everything that can be delivered to the home, will be

Home reno companies and trades will see unprecedented demand as people renovate their residences to become places of work too, not to mention spaces where they can play, entertain, learn, make, create, ship, produce energy, socialize, grow[1], and shop from, plus owners will want to animate their properties (even their principal residences) to allow for both multi-generational living arrangements as well as providing them with some passive rental income from basement apartments, sideyard apartments, attic apartments, microsuites, apartments above the garage, laneway homes, backyard coach houses, tiny homes, mini offices and workshops…

Car trips will be less frequent

CO(2) generated by car trips will drop

Electric vehicle sales will boom

Demand for more walkable neighborhoods and more destinations within walking distance (like, say, a doctor’s office or dentist or physiotherapist) will rise

TaaS (transportation as a service) and driverless vehicles will arrive in force and, as a result, private car ownership will drop, demand for auto mechanics will crater as will demand for truckdrivers, chauffeurs, taxi/Uber/Lyft drivers, used cars, new car dealerships, auto parts, car insurance, collision repair, vehicle maintenance and so forth

Public transit will face increasing competition from TaaS

Demand for oil will drop, so too will demand for parking spaces, garages and lots, which will be repurposed for higher and better uses than car storage

Reliance on cloud computing and AI will vastly increase

Demand for battery storage and better batteries will rise enormously

The number of gigpreneurs will skyrocket

Business models that surprise and delight, combining unusual things together in ways that please clients and customers will prevail

Companies that don’t treat the words “customer service” as an oxymoron will prevail

Trust will be even more prized and so branding that creates trust will be of paramount importance

People will either become more self-reliant or face being part of the wrong end of a K-shaped economic recovery (in other words, they will be on the downslope of the “k”)

Productivity will increase for those on the upward trending part of the “k,” a good news story for them

AI, artificially intelligent agents[2], will be another boon to knowledge workers making the difference between winners and losers in today’s income wars even more pronounced

Telemedicine is here to stay

Distance education, coaching, mentoring, lifetime learning will be even more important

Home schooling will be a bigger part of education as will remote learning plus the arrival of true AI will allow mass customization of education so that children can explore more of the world around them and follow more closely their own natural interests

More people will enter the trades and establish their own firms

Demand for universities and colleges, law programs, MBAs and the like will falter

Artisanal arts will be rediscovered, mind you, wrapped in modern era business models that will flourish

Co-working spaces will fade unless they also provide a place to live and work in ONE building

There will be more pressure for a guaranteed minimum income, which many believe will not only be useful and necessary but more efficient than a myriad of top-heavy, bureaucrat-run government programs now in existence

Cities will either relax their zoning codes to allow more flexibility in how real property is used or face mounting civil disobedience as well as emigration of their best and brightest to more friendly confines

This will mean repurposing mono-cultured mega shopping malls and office towers into mixed-use buildings

Cities, towns and villages will need to develop different policy planning tools and outside-the-box ideas, so they attract business investment and entrepreneurs, and spur on more innovation

Hardening of communities will become a much higher priority—more efficient, more sustainable, more grow local, produce/manufacture local, deal with wastes locally, produce textiles locally, become more energy independent as well as more independent in services (think finance, loans, insurance…), meds/pharma, healthcare, education, entertainment, construction, tourism, policing and so forth

Communities will need to be more affordable, live-work-play, create-make-learn-grow, entertain-shop, exercise-grow-socialize, diversified-visitable, neo-urbanist, walkable, animated neighborhoods, which are both economically and environmentally sustainable…

Weather forecasts will still suck

Privacy is a joke—you have none

Leisure is the new infrastructure… entertainment components (a new economic engine) will be added to almost every new project

It will generate far more economic activity than simply building a new road or putting in additional municipal services

World #1 economy will be China

First PERSON on Mars will be… Chinese

Arthur C Clark’s elevators to space will be built on the moon and Mars not Earth

Alzheimer’s will be a forgotten disease

Digitally recorded film/video/books/blogs/photos/images will vanish into the void as websites/apps/cloud storage and computers evolve and disappear or are replaced

Entertainers/starchitects/elite artists/writers etc will make more money after they die

Homes will be smaller

Tiny houses will be everywhere

Everyone will have at least five or six careers during their lifetimes

An embarrassed NHL finally gets rid of fighting

English will prove to be unstoppable

There will be more people in ESL (English as a Second Language) schools than any other single course

People will never retire

People will work effectively into their 80s and 90s and people will live into their 90s and 100s

Get ready for a 70-year career

Fewer people than ever will benefit from meaningful pensions

More people will embrace real estate and side gigs as a means to provide for themselves in their senior years

Age of majority, voting age, drinking age, legal age, military service age and driving age will be 16 and society will stop treating teenagers as incompetent nincompoops and recognize as well as value the energy/passion/speed/sweat equity and luck they bring to EVERYTHING

Helicopter parenting will get worse

Economists will continue to be able to accurately predict nine out of the last five recessions

Female-headed startups will have higher survivorship rates than their male counterparts, but male versions will grow faster and larger

More nation states will fail and become abominations

Most of those nations will not only repress minorities within their boundaries, but they will also fail to respect/promote women’s rights

Without peace, order and good government, no value can be created

The future will surprise us!

@ProfBruce

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[1] Backyard homesteading (aka backyard gardening or urban farming) will be rediscovered as something that not only feeds your family and provides you with greater food security but also has an ROI (return on investment) that can be as high as 1000% pa.

[2] Personalized AI agents will help you with your schoolwork, your taxes, managing your social networks, research, writing, taking notes, answering your phone, screening your calls, paying your bills, babysitting your kids (when you have them), diagnosing illnesses, writing your shopping list, ordering stuff for you, help running your business, side hustle or gig, solving problems, reminding you of your appointments/birthdays/anniversaries, doing your banking, writing emails, posting to social media, translating in real time as you speak or are spoken to in a language not your own…

Prof Bruce

FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS COACHING THAT’LL HELP YOU PROVIDE FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY FOR 3-GENERATIONS, PLEASE CONTACT:

Bruce M Firestone, B Eng (civil), M Eng-Sci, PhD Real Estate Investment and Business coach Ottawa Senators founder ROYAL LePAGE Performance Realty broker 613-762-8884 [email protected] brucemfirestone.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/profbruce https://brucemfirestone.com/blog/ profbruce.tumblr.com/archive https://www.youtube.com/user/ProfBruce/ https://twitter.com/ProfBruce https://www.facebook.com/groups/reiroi https://www.facebook.com/ProfBruce

BOOK YOUR FREE CLARITY CALL WITH PROF BRUCE NOW, https://brucemfirestone.com/coaching/prof-bruce-real-estate-investment-and-business-coaching/talk/

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[1] Source: By Leonardo da Vinci - www.vivoscuola.it: Home; Picture, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=109273.

#What The Future Holds

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profbruce · 3 years

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Commercial or residential at grade, which is better for the bottom line?

I can’t believe that other landowners/property owners haven’t figured out how to repurpose their retail space to live-work-play-make spaces, all at grade.

There is demand for these types of spaces from gigpreneurs who, for example, want to work in a street-facing studio and live behind their store, all on one level (ie, the ground floor).

Thee types of uses are more resilient than, say, a lady’s dress shop or a men’s shoe store. Yet in a recent Bloomberg article (https://www.dropbox.com/s/loq42xd8mhw8y5n/how-retail-is-surviving-the-pandemic-bloomberg-2021-jan-11.pdf?dl=0), landlords are cutting deals to keep retail tenants alive, tenants are asking governments for more and more help and, at least from what I can tell, no one is talking about moving towards a more sustainable set of uses… that are:

a) pandemic-resistant,

b) internet-resistant (or they know how to take advantage of an online presence) and

c) big box store-resistant.

I was also surprised when a clever investor asked me to answer this question—which is more profitable, residential microsuites at grade or commercial space—and it turned out that per sq ft, microsuites were.

Here’s my analysis for a project I am working on in Belleville ON:

A 300 sq ft microsuite will probably rent for $1,100 per month or around $44 per sq ft per year gross.

Conventional commercial/retail space is anywhere from $16 to $24 per sq ft triple net in downtown Belleville, which works out to around $31 to $39 per sq ft gross (assuming OPEX—property taxes, operating costs and utilities—are approximately $15 per sq ft per year). That is, if you can find a retailer that is interested in renting anything these days and if they have a sustainable business model.

So, somewhat surprisingly (at least to me), residential might be a bit more $$$ per sq ft with a lower risk of long-term vacancy.

Here's our architect's sketch of how we might demise our ground-floor space--

Commercial space along Belleville’s main street right now is about 20 to 25% vacant. Some stores have been left empty for two years or more. That is a long time to wait if you a landlord. And I suspect residential is less than 2%.

So, live-work-make-play at grade is good for tenants and residents, good for their guests, visitors, clients and customers, good for passersby, good for the neighborhood, city and town (not to have gaping holes in their street-life, that is, vacant stores that look like a hockey player with few teeth left) and, happily, good for a landlord’s bottom line too.

Prof Bruce

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FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS COACHING THAT’LL HELP YOU PROVIDE FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY FOR 3-GENERATIONS, PLEASE CONTACT:

Bruce M Firestone, B Eng (civil), M Eng-Sci, PhD Real Estate Investment and Business coach Ottawa Senators founder ROYAL LePAGE Performance Realty broker 613-762-8884 [email protected] brucemfirestone.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/profbruce https://brucemfirestone.com/blog/ profbruce.tumblr.com/archive https://www.youtube.com/user/ProfBruce/ https://twitter.com/ProfBruce https://www.facebook.com/groups/reiroi https://www.facebook.com/ProfBruce

BOOK YOUR FREE CLARITY CALL WITH PROF BRUCE NOW, https://brucemfirestone.com/coaching/prof-bruce-real-estate-investment-and-business-coaching/talk/

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#microsuites #live-work

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profbruce · 3 years

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I wish we knew now what we knew then

Over the Christmas holidays, I was rereading The Mysterious Island by Jules Verne. I read it when I was a kid and enjoyed it, so I thought I’d see what I think of it now.

It’s about five Union soldiers who escape Confederate captivity during the US Civil War in a balloon that is swept by a hurricane thousands of miles… all the way to crash on a strange island in the South Pacific. As a child, I enjoyed the adventure, but what I found interesting this time was comparing in my mind how these five men in the 1860s do on a deserted island compared with say 5 modern humans.

The former know metallurgy, boatbuilding, sailing, navigating, agronomy, astronomy, hunting, fishing, construction, animal husbandry, pottery, chemistry, battery-making, electricity, telegraphy, soldiering and much more.

They land on the island with absolutely nothing but their lives and clothes yet, within a few years, they are living very comfortably.

They are also infallibly polite, know how to give and take orders and have discipline and faith.

I suspect modern humans would not do as well.

In fact, I recall, in an early season of the reality TV show, Survivor, my frustration watching modern people stranded together on a tropical isle trying to make fire. They knew for months before their appearance on that show that each skill they would be able to bring to the competition would mean their chances of sticking around would improve (ie, not being voted off the island). Yet none of them, after days of futile attempts to master what was arguably one of the most important lessons learned by early humans, could do it.

It got so bad that the host, an irritating man at the best of times, finally had to bring each of the tribes a box of matches lest they starve to death.

Why is this relevant?

Well, lots of folks today are talking about how to not only decrease their environmental footprint on this planet but also how to make actual improvements in the natural environment, how to be more self-sufficient, how to grow (more) local, how to make and build things locally, how to produce energy locally and so forth.

They might do well to read Jules Verne’s novel first published (en français) in 1875 and marvel over all the things they knew then that we (most of us) don’t know today.

The book is out of copyright, so I can give you my copy, https://www.dropbox.com/s/b5xrnpylydxku6b/The%20Mysterious%20Island.pdf?dl=0

Happy new year,

Prof Bruce

January 1st, 2021

FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS COACHING THAT’LL HELP YOU PROVIDE FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY FOR 3-GENERATIONS, PLEASE CONTACT:

Bruce M Firestone, B Eng (civil), M Eng-Sci, PhD Real Estate Investment and Business coach Century 21 Explorer Realty Inc broker Ottawa Senators founder 613-762-8884 [email protected] brucemfirestone.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/profbruce https://brucemfirestone.com/blog/ profbruce.tumblr.com/archive https://www.youtube.com/user/ProfBruce/ https://twitter.com/ProfBruce https://www.facebook.com/groups/reiroi https://www.facebook.com/ProfBruce https://bruce-firestone.c21.ca/

BOOK YOUR FREE CLARITY CALL WITH PROF BRUCE NOW, https://brucemfirestone.com/coaching/prof-bruce-real-estate-investment-and-business-coaching/talk/

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Image source: Originally drawn by Jules Férat – Hetzel edition of The Mysterious Island, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=66142

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#jules verne #mysterious island #survivor

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