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#but theres no changing the past and so. this is kris's life now
acaciapines · 18 days
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i need to talk about the dess raises kris au. or im gonna explode.
#chatter#GOOD TIMING TO THINK ABOUT AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT STORY: EDITING UR TOH DAEMON AU LOL#like i can separate it out enough when im working lol but afterwards. oh its all deltarune babey!!!#been thinking a lot about dess and how i wanna write her#(aka im gonna canonize some mental stuff i've always kinda had in the back of my mind for her)#and GOD. dess. i forgive her for all her flaws <3#but no shes sooooo fascinating to me in this au its just. she was Eighteen. right in the middle of a pretty bad psychotic break.#the only person ever in her corner (asriel) Did Not Believe her and has always been real shitty about her undiagnosed mental illnesses#(dw we will come back to this i have a LOT of ideas for azzy lol he is. uh. not the best at the start!)#and so like. of course when it comes to kris her best was never going to be enough.#but GOD im soooo fascinated by like. she does genuinely really truly care for kris.#yes its messy and caught up in a bunch of other things but she LOVES THEM#even if she cannot ever love them in the way they want her to (ie as a parent loves a child)#and is it fair for kris? no! course it isnt!!!#but theres no changing the past and so. this is kris's life now#and its dess's life now. and they just have to live with what happened#thinking about the like. 6 months to a year where it was just dess and kris (before chara) and. god.#GOD. YOU GUYS.#sorry this au is. um. i think it is my everything. like.#if you know you know (hi stars lol <3) but. man.........man.#i have a lot of thoughts about. prophecy. and when translating that out beyond just story and into like. the real world#cause lets be real prophecy doesnt exist but things w this power of 'you are supposed to be x and cannot be anything but x' DO and#god. the dess raises kris au is So Much.#also yeah another acacia tags essay they simply hit differently <3#also enough to go into the main tag so#drkau#anyways lemme go back to editing lol
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eternal-fractal · 5 years
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Kris isnt evil.
And yes, kris has his soul throughout the game.
Did everyone forget the pacifist ending post a genocide run?
Frisks eyes shine red, being possessed by chara, where you are unable to control frisk.
And the soul disposal? Chara already owns your soul post genocide in undertale, so they dont need to get rid of it.
But not in deltarune.
You know why chara had to take control at the end?
Because you cant control kris when they're unconscious, or unable to move by themselves. You see this during the end of the chaos king fight, and start of the dark world, where kris has to wake up and get up on his own. And chara didnt take control in the dark world because it was a bad time.
Controlling kris seems to be a consenting agreement, because kris can control himself at any time, without you being able to do anything. Like when they're afraid of susie, and backing up into the locker. Theres also the shielding scene in the chaos king fight. Not to mention the beginning where kris walks into the car, or when he chooses to hold toriels hand in the school They also get mad when mk insults susie after the dark world.
Kris seems to have control over himself whenever they want. So it doesnt seem like you're some sort of puppet master.
Why is this? Well, I have two ideas.
1) is that kris isnt even aware you're controlling him, because your "connection" isnt a master puppeteer and puppet one.
Or two, one that makes more sense and can help explain the rest of deltarune,
2) kris may have had that vessel dream in the beginning. And the text that appears is gaster talking in your place. The reason you made a vessel was because gaster knew about the threat of chara removing kris's soul, to take over and had you create a "backup" so kris would still have a body, and would have a chance to stop chara. Meaning that you'll likely play as your vessel in chapter two.
Why is chara doing this? I feel like this could be chara from the genocide run in undertale, with so much lv that they're unable to be reasoned with, and who's goal is to destroy worlds, and destroyed the undertale one. Let's call them lv-chara
But gaster didnt exist in that world, and he was unaffected by the genocide. But we do know he is observing this world helpless to intervene.
So I believe that after the universe was destroyed in undertale, he decided to craft an entirely new one, since the old world is unable to be saved, as lv-chara has gained absolute control over that universe.
But they wouldnt have that control over a new universe.
So they took every possible measure they could so that the genocide run could never happen again.
This is why "your choices dont matter" because gaster knows about the "anomaly." Which is the player, and all the possible timelines. So gaster got rid of any other timeline. And hell, even in the agreement of the game, he forced you to accept the terms of "you will accept everything that happens from now on."
Why? Well, does the quote "But you refused" ring a bell?
This is why they created the vessel. Because if chara somehow managed to bypass all that, he would be helpless.
This could even explain why the save points look different. Kris doesnt have as much less determination as they did in undertale, giving them enough power for a few resets but not enough to erase the world. (I'll get to kris in undertale shortly)
A few times you dont even reset when you're defeated. You just pop up at the last save point, after you've been defeated. You see this happens when susie defeats you and ralsei. (If you didnt know, when you lose and come back, you get more dialogue where susie rematches you because you arent pleading to not join.) You only reset a few times, like at the jevil fight. This is probably because you dont actually die the other times. Meaning jevil literally kills you.
This even explains why you have three save files.
Because even if chara manages to destroy the world, you'll have two more chances.
This is why gaster forces you into a pacifist run.
Because he hopes, and prays to any unknown being that could be greater than him, that you wont repeat your mistakes.
And if you will, gaster prays that you can't repeat your mistakes.
He doesnt even know if the anomaly will come back, be the same anomaly, or if there will even be an anomoly.
He also created a universe where chara never even existed. Taking their place in this universe is: frisk!
But why would frisk be so okay with this?
They had even less control in undertale. This is an improvement.
But that's not the main reason. You know how gaster is taking every possible precaution? I would say this includes talking to frisk about his plan, and begging them to help.
Frisk, of course never even had a say in the genocide run. Of course they would want to live in a world with control over their soul, (which was sold against their will) no possible threat of genocide, and the ability to live a happy life with all their friends in the underground, with no human vs monster war, where asriel never even became flowey, and where there was no resetting.
"But frisk and kris are different names?" Is frisk even a name? According to how many of me, theres only around a thousand and a half people named frisk. That's an extremely low amount. And this is 2019, so how many of them are kids named after undertale? And when I went on a few sites like baby names, frisk didnt even have any results.
So it's likely that they just asked gaster if they could change it to a name they liked more before the new universe was made. And even if frisk didnt want to change it, theres still reason to. Gaster wants to take every possible precaution, no matter how small or "insignifigant" remember? And that could include changing their name to frisk to make it harder for chara to find them, if they even could.
"But what if I never did a genocide run in undertale?"
That doesnt matter. Because this isnt about your undertale run. Any of ours actually.
Toby fox even tells us that this is a world separate from undertale, and our undertale world will remain exactly how we left it.
This even fits the message of undertale where you "cant undo your actions" you may not be able to undo your actions, but you can move past them, make better decisions, and learn from your mistakes.
And depending on your actions in undertale, you could be the same anomaly or a different one. If you did a genocide run, you're the same anomoly. But if you never did, or hell, never played undertale in the first place, you're a different anomoly.
But when do anomolys take control?
I feel like here, anomolys take control right before a major event. This is why you can see kris is several years older than frisk was. The major event here isnt chara, but the dark world. This is why you create the vessel as soon as you get there.
Gaster doesnt seem to have absolute control over this universe, despite making it.
This is why he makes a "connection" with you. He NEEDS an anomoly. Think about the difference between playing a game and doing it in reality?
Let's say you beat asgore in undertale. You were able to beat him there, but in reality? Be honest. Not only would you not survive one fireball, but you would not have the physical movement, reflexes, or ability to beat him.
In the undertale universe, anomalies are able to do the impossible easily. Gaster needs that ability to beat chara.
And you know the narrator chara theory? If it's true, How could it fit into here if kris still has dialogue boxes, and chara doesnt follow them around?
Like I said kris still has a lot of control. The narrator is likely just kris, if the narrator even is someone.
What do you guys think? Personally, I feel like I made a pretty damn good theory for what's going on in deltarune.
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the-ethereal-demon · 4 years
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kris has been on my mind a lot lately. Whenever that happens I wonder if hes been thinking about me too. I kind of wonder what he thinks about our situation, us kind of being friendly but not really friends yknow? I sort of feel like I wanna talk to him just to see how hes doing n stuff but I dont know how that would go. Even if everything went fine I still feel like it would be kind of bittersweet, like we can get along for the moment but it just reminds me that we cant have what I'd want..
I dont even want to date him anymore, I just wanna be able to be friends. I know its silly to think that that is an impossibility bc life surprises you and people change and the passage of time and all that but it still feels like it wont ever be possible for us to even be friends and that kind of sucks
I probably won't do anything. That's what I usually do. I think at some point I unconsciously made the decision to only talk to him if he texts me first. I think the only time I text him first in the past year was for his birthday. Part of me feels like I should just go ahead and talk to him and not be scared but idk if that's a good idea
Whenever I do get the urge to talk to him theres always those thoughts lingering in my mind like "do you still think about me?" and although I want to ask those things I dont. In an ideal world itd be like in fiction where two people cross paths and they almost muse about how things have been since the last time they talked and both of them can ask all the questions that are still on their mind but I cant do that. And even if I could im scared. I dont want to say anything too deep or sentimental bc I'm afraid that it will push him away and our relationship is already so shaky as it is. Its not like I'd be surprised if he got freaked out abt me still being sentimental and wanting to know what he thinks of me now but it would still hurt at least a little bit and I dont wanna go through that at all
I still remember the first time I told him I loved him. It was before we were dating and we were skyping and I wanted to tell him that I loved him, in a platonic way, but I was afraid to. And he had muted the call cause his dad was asking him something and I messaged him "I love you" and when he came back he said "are you afraid to say that to me?" And I said yeah and he said "well I can say it to you". And so then I told him verbally that I loved him and he told me that he loved me too and then he was like "see that wasnt so bad" and I was like "yeah <3" and it was cute
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houseofvans · 7 years
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SKETCHY BEHAVIORS |  Kris Chau (Los Angeles)
Poetic, fluid and much like a song or ballad, the artwork of Los Angeles based artist Kris Chau sings a visual story on paper, focusing on symbols, shapes, and story-telling. We've been following Kris’s various watercolor and acrylic works, and have fallen in love with the murals she’s created for local shops in her neighborhood. We’re excited to chat with this very talented and magical lady about some of the artwork she makes, what inspires her,  and her upcoming projects for 2017!
Photographs courtesy of the artist.
Tell us a little bit about yourself. What’s a little known fact about yourself?
My name is Kris Chau, or Chau, or Chauface. My friend Emilia who does this amazing thing called Pony Sweat, simply calls me FACE. I am from Honolulu Hawaii and currently reside in the fine city of Los Angeles. More specifically the land of Echo Park. As for something weird or strange, I’m pretty sure my cat is my Grandfather re-incarnated. Mostly because my Grandpa loved cats and was a Chinese herbalist. My cat carries a Datura flower in his mouth and leaves it for me in the morning at the door. 
How did you first become enamored with art and drawing?  Do you remember what your first drawing or doodles were like?
My parents are very stoic, refugees from Vietnam, who laid the groundwork early on in my life that no one is special. So even thought I was drawing things that looked like things as a little kid, it went by unnoticed. And I just thought everyone could draw. It wasn’t until teachers at school or other students started to comment on my assignments or doodles as something different that I realized it was ‘something’ if not special. My first doodles were circle people with legs and arms, and lots and lots of horses. I recently saw some old kid drawings I made my cousins which mostly consisted of Yoshi the Dinosaur and X-men.
Some folks have been drawing from since they were kids, and some folks keep with it and some bail on it.  Did you continue drawing in school or was it something you put away and found yourself doing more and more, till it became your identity and life? 
I am a drawer. There’s no way around it. I knew early on in life and then when I figured out I could trade my drawings for happy meals or erasers in school, it was on. I sometimes wish it wasn’t so much my identity. That this stirring you feel towards such a specific act, didn’t exist. Then maybe I could hold down a great job and not daydream otherwise, or maybe just come home to watch TV instead of turning into a garage art troll. There’s a natural fluidity to your work and some reoccurring imagery.  Can you tell us a little about the things you like to draw?  
Well these days drawing and painting is more about expanding my visual language than it is about just practicing a skill. So if there is a feeling, a story, or a loss, I try to figure out how to sing this song on paper. Lately I’ve been toying with the idea of a universal quiet language that consists mostly of simple symbols and shapes. But I can’t deny i love drawing ladies and weird animals.  
What were some of your early art influences, and who are some of your influences now? 
One of my all time current art heroes is my dear friend Ako Castuera, and when we became friends we realized there were two books that we had in common that definitely defined my art drawing trajectory. One was the Ordinary Princess by MM Kaye and D’aulaires Book of Greek Myths. Later on in life it became Ben Shahn, Andy Warhol’s old illustrations, and pretty much all art from indigenous peoples. And as kindred spirits in terms of their pursuit of their craft and making their way in life I would have to say people like Hellen Jo, Nathaniel Russell, Yumi Sakugawa, Rob Sato, James Ulmer, Chances With Wolves and Jesse Moynihan. 
Can you take us through your artistic process? And how would you say it has changed or evolved since you started?
Well lately I do a lot of meditating and thinking about something before I draw anything. I do lots of research. I try to not be hungry and mostly very comfortable. In the Past I would do sketches or preliminary drawings but these days I think for a very long time and I draw. Very boring, very simple. I try to keep a routine that’s very mundane, so that the rest of my energy goes towards making things. So there’s not a lot of social events or chilling with too many humans. Mostly being alone at least 2-3 days a week, with not too much stimuli. Lots of watering plants and organizing sock drawers.
Artists seem to either keep a sketchbook or just occasionally keep up a sketchbook. Do you keep a sketchbook?  
Keeping a sketchbook is important, it’s not as much a part of my life as it once was, but I keep one that might span a whole year. I think the tactile act of writing stuff down in something you can hold is getting lost in this current world. I normally carry a little travel set of color pencils, a sharpener, and my sketchbook. I try to do more life drawings of wherever I am in those books, or color theory tests. What would be your dream collaboration?  Is it easy for you to collaborate or do you find it can be difficult?
I feel like I am living the dream! I recently got to do some artwork for my dudes at Chances With Wolves and I am currently working on some things with my heros Ako Castuera and Hellen Jo! Lately, I’ve been looking at all my illustration jobs or more commercial jobs as collaborations. Or if its a job where I am just a drawing gun for hire, it had better pay my rent. But since I no longer have the fortitude to be someones drawing monkey, everything has to be a collaboration between me and a client.
These days I feel like the people behind the desks are like, okay we are here, who can we help on the come up and feed some integrity into our design or product. So thank you to those golden hearted desk homies, who are pushing against the tide in terms of the corporate design world. 
You work with various mediums from - ink to acrylics.  What do you particularly love about these mediums or one specifically.  
I’m very curmudgeonly when it comes to my supplies. I use Dr. PH Martin’s Concetrated Watercolors, Lascaux Acrylics, and FW acrylic ink. I like trashy paint brushes that I don’t have to sweat, and if I am doing an ink drawing its with a #2 nib crow quill. I don’t like watercolor paper, i use printmaking paper for all my paintings. Although these days I’m more interested in shapes than any linework.
Is there something material wise new you’ve been messing around with or are looking to experiment with?
A new medium is I would like to go 3D at some point with either fabric sculptures or paper mache. 
Illustrations have been something you’ve been doing for a while with magazine and various clients. Can you share with folks what that process is like? 
Oh man, this is the age old crux of making money off the creative thang you do. Listen up kids, old people, dreamers, fakers, and doers. You make what you make regardless of who is gonna look at it or buy it. I feel very very fortunate that I currently have jobs and clients that are supportive to whatever it is that I currently make and do. But it took a long time to develop my own language that lended itself to peoples needs. When you feel like the act of creating needs to be validated by money or recognition, you end up not giving yourself space to hone your language.
What did you or do you enjoy the most and what are some things you dislike about it?
That being said, my favorite part of illustration work is telling the story or solving the problem with my specific language. The things I dislike about it, is just being someone’s drawing monkey, which can be okay if someone knows what they want. When people romanticize what you do, like you’re a creative unicorn and everything you do will be easy and fun so make me these five logos or graphics in a week. Maybe if I was at home making logos every night for fun, but I’m trying to make paintings, so the day when i make rent with just paintings, maybe the logos will be fun. 
You’ve painted on various surfaces and things–how has been making works on a larger scale been for you? Did it come easily or was it something you had to work through and adapt with?  
Oh man, I love painting real big on something thats not paper or a canvas. Theres something about it that just feels good, which is why graffiti exists I suppose. Well painting big, exercises  the communication between my eyes, brain and hands outside its normal paper sizes. I freehand everything too, no projectors here! Its also athletic in a way that sitting at a desk all day isn’t so conducive to. All the murals and big thangs I’ve painted forced my visual language a certain way, that would read well large scale. 
What’s been the weirdest or coolest thing you’ve put your art on, so far?
One of my very favorite big things I got to paint, is a Pussy Party on my friend Garet’s Van. He gets a lot of attention. What are your thoughts regarding social media for artists? What has been your approach to it?
Whoa heavy topic. Well as someone who was born in 1980, i’m in between. I love how it distributes your work further than you could’ve gotten it just by having shows. I definitely get to live and work from a weird garage and have people find me because of it, so for that I am eternally grateful. What I don’t like about it, is that I feel like people are forgetting what good things look like in real life. Things have to look good on a small screen. So things that pop off or are high contrasted, tend to work very well. But maybe a large scale watercolor won’t translate. Its the same way I feel about going to the movies VS. getting it streamed at home. The ritual of intention is getting lost. Then this new format dictates whats successful out there in the world, when the real life version might be very different. The feed, which does allow for new discovery and wider spread audiences, is taking away the in real life visual impact. 
Having lived in various cities but now residing in LA, what’s it been like and what are your thoughts about the art scene here?
I really love LA, there is a certain magic about this place where if you will it and work hard it might actually be possible. I have my own small community of people who make things that I feel very close to, and keep me working. I always say when the times are hard, that we are all lucky to be here in this city right now in this time. I used to share a studio with James Ulmer in Philadelphia at Space 1026, who really helped me push my drawings and paintings on a bigger scale. But when he moved away to take over New York, I was sort of left without my drawing people. So in my heart I knew all my drawing people, who had the same life ideals when it came to making art, lived and flourished in LA.
What’s a question you never get asked but would love to ask and answer yourself!
Your work is often described as whimsical, how do you feel about that? I actually hate that word and in no way do I identify with that, though I understand where you are coming from when you say it. Look Deeper and allow yourself to hear what you see.
What are your favorite Vans? How would you describe your personal style?
Lately I have been wearing the white cracked leather skate hi slims. But I think the 90’s surly teenager in me is looking for some brown authentic with some black laces.
What’s some of the best and worst advice you’ve gotten as an artist?
The best advice from Ken Rignall : Your problem is that you can draw really well, so that is holding you back. You give up if it’s not easy or you don’t have to try very hard to make things look ‘good’ but all your making is decoration. The worst advice from anyone in the world these days : You gotta work on your brand and your social media presence.
What upcoming projects or collaborations do you have coming up for 2017? 
Guys in the Fall of Los Angeles get ready for a power packed show with Ako Castuera and Hellen Jo. There will be events so get ready for that sign up sheet! It will be only show of 2017 because my brain is very fried. 
Follow Kris Chau Instagram: @chaucfacetime Website: www.krischau.com Tumblr: chaufacetime.tumblr.com
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jodyedgarus · 5 years
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The Super Bowl’s Best Matchup Is Gladys Knight vs. The Clock
Super Bowl LIII is not only about two of the league’s best offenses squaring off against one another — New England and Los Angeles — it’s also about America’s other favorite pastime: gambling. The total amount bet on the Super Bowl1 has risen from $40 million in 1991 to more than $158 million in 2018, and much of that growth has come from “props” or proposition bets.
For readers who aren’t degenerate gamblers, prop bets are wagers you can place on events during a game that don’t directly involve the final outcome. This year there are the standard prop bets, like if the Patriots will score a touchdown in the first quarter (they never have in a Super Bowl), or if the Rams will rush for more than 127.5 yards (they averaged 143.3 yards per game in the regular season and the playoffs). But there are also more exotic prop bets on things like whether Donald Trump will tweet more than six times during the game. (The implied probability on one offshore book is 58 percent that he will hit the over.)
Another interesting wager is on the length of Gladys Knight’s rendition of “The Star-Spangled Banner.” Several offshore books have set the total for the anthem at 1 minute 47 seconds, and the implied odds for both the under and the over were set at one book at -115 — a 53.5 percent implied probability — on both sides.2 The implied probabilities being equal indicates that the book has no real opinion on the length of Gladys’s performance — they just want to take a percentage from each side of the wager and hope bettors will place their bets evenly on both.
But is Knight performing the anthem in over/under 107 seconds really close to a 50 percent proposition? Or is there evidence that might convince us that the oddsmakers got the probabilities wrong?
To find out, I went to Youtube and watched 40 Super Bowl national anthems from 1979 to 2018. I eliminated any anthems with trumpeters (there were two) and then started timing the anthem from the moment the singer first started to sing and ended the timer after the completion of the first utterance of “brave.”3 Using this methodology, the 40-year average of all national anthem singers4 is 106.1 seconds, roughly in line with the total set by the books. So the total is correct so far as the average goes, but it also seems lazy. Surely there are other factors that might help us better predict how long Gladys might sing.
For starters, the performance time of the anthem has changed as the Super Bowl has grown to become the unparalleled cultural phenomenon we now enjoy each year. As the pomp, circumstance and viewership have increased, the time anthem performers spend on the stage has also risen.
So while anthems have gotten longer over time, the 40-year average is not fully accounting for that trend. When you do account for it5 the best forecast for the 2019 anthem is actually 119 seconds, 13 seconds over the 40-year average.
Gender of the anthem singer is also significant. Men tend to sing the anthem more quickly than women — though not many men have sung the anthem in recent years, when the anthems have been getting longer overall. Still, the all-time shortest anthem performance was by a man — the incomparable Neil Diamond — who got in and out like a boss in a cool 61 seconds. And the longest anthem ever performed at a Super Bowl was by the unforgettable Natalie Cole in 1994, which clocked in at a diva-esque 148 seconds.
Finally, Knight herself appears to be a singer who knows how to stretch a note. Using whosampled, I identified 31 covers performed by Knight and timed the cover performance of each using similar criteria to the anthem timing. Knight’s covers were 7 percent longer than the originals on average, good for a bonus 12.7 seconds of soothing soul per track. In perhaps the best comp to the national anthem — “Ave Maria,” a soaring, vocal-heavy standard covered by hundreds of artists — Gladys’ performance was 37 percent longer than the standard version.
Gladys Knight takes her time with interpretations
Difference in song length between Knight’s covers and the original songs
Song Original Artist Difference Feel Like Makin’ Love Roberta Flack +129 sec. The Look of Love Dusty Springfield +85 Yesterday The Beatles +70 Help Me Make It Through the Night Kris Krisofferson +66 Ave Maria Anna Moffo +65 For Once in My Life Barbara McNair +50 Midnight Train to Georgia Cissy Houston +42 The Way We Were Barbara Streisand +36 Fire and Rain James Taylor +33 I’m Gonna Make You Love Me Dee Dee Warwick +30 Groovin’ The Young Rascals +27 The Need to Be Jim Weatherly +13 Average +13 Everybody Needs Love The Temptations +8 You’re the Best Thing That Ever Happened to Me Ray Price +8 Goin’ Out of My Head Little Anthony and the Imperials +7 All I Could Do Is Cry Etta James +2 Baby I Need Your Loving The Four Tops +1 Tracks of My Tears Smokey Robinson & The Miracles 0 Yes, I’m ready Barbara Mason -1 Baby Don’t Change Your Mind The Stylistics -1 I Wish It Would Rain The Temptations -4 Cloud Nine The Temptations -9 Keep an Eye Diana Ross & The Supremes -9 You’ve Lost That Lovin’ Feelin’ The Righteous Brothers -14 I Feel a Song (in My Heart) Sandra Richardson -19 Let It Be The Beatles -21 Is There a Place? The Supremes -34 Wind Beneath My Wings Roger Whittaker -34 Heard It Through the Grapevine Marvin Gaye -39 Thank You Sly & the Family Stone -45 Every Beat of My Heart The Royals -49
Sources: YouTube, Whosampled
Taking a larger view, only two anthems in the past 15 years have been performed faster than the 40-year average of 1 minute 47 seconds. And when I looked at the age of the anthem singers, I found no significant correlation between age and performance time.6 On the other hand, we can look at one of Knight’s previous performances of “The Star-Spangled Banner” itself, which is solid piece of evidence against the over, running for 92 seconds. It was, however, performed 28 years ago. All things considered, the bookmakers appear to have this line wrong on Gladys, and her upcoming anthem performance is probably going to go over 107 seconds.
Researching a single prop was a lot of work, and it’s understandable why books might not want to put this level of effort into each and every bet they publish. But it does imply that there are profitable edges for some Super Bowl props. Using the Twitter machine, I threw up a bat signal for a gambling expert to help me confirm my priors. Rufus Peabody, a professional sports bettor and former ESPN contributor who is well-known in gambling circles for the scale and volume of his Super Bowl prop wagers, agreed to help.
“The time and effort to accurately value props is pretty high,” Peabody said. “Some books put more effort into their props than others, and for some props there’s almost no data. Books will move the lines aggressively when sharp bets are made though, which helps them adjust.”
I’ve been keeping an eye on the Gladys anthem line, and it hasn’t moved all week. I was tempted to bet the over, but when I was confronted with the prospect of having to convert real money into Bitcoin in order to place a bet on an offshore site, I decided to abort. When I looked around for somewhere to place the bet in Las Vegas — where they accept actual money — I struck out. Peabody explained that prop bets like anthem length are illegal in Las Vegas because of restrictions on the types of sources casinos can use to “grade” or determine the outcome of a bet.
Even if it won’t net me any cash, I’ll be pulling for Knight to go over regardless. I want her to belt out that last note in “home of the brave” for an egregiously long time. After all, my Twitter credibility is on the line, and that’s serious business.
from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-super-bowls-best-matchup-is-gladys-knight-vs-the-clock/
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