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This is an excellent interview with political science professor Barbara F. Walter from the University of California at San Diego, who wrote “How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them.” In the interview, Walter describes why she believes a civil war/insurgency might be coming to the U.S..
THE TWO FACTORS PREDICTIVE OF CIVIL WAR: 1) “anocracy “& 2) political organization around “identity”
Walter said that in the 1990s the CIA’s Political Instability Task Force identified 2 factors (out of more than 30) that were most predictive of whether a nation might experience civil war.
ANOCRACY: Walter mentions that nations that are somewhere in between autocracies and democracies are called anocracies. She say that the Center for Systemic Peace provides a -10 to +10 rating scale: -10 to -6 (autocracy), -5 to + 5 (anocracy) and + 6 to +10 (democracy), on which it provides yearly ratings of the extent to which different national governments are “autocratic or democratic.”
According to the Center for Systemic Peace
“The USA dropped below the ‘democracy threshold’ (+6) on the POLITY scale in 2020 and was considered an anocracy (+5) at the end of the year 2020; the USA score for 2021 returned to democracy (+8).”
Given all the voter suppression laws recently passed in red states, and the Supreme Court’s overturning much of the Voting Rights Act, it seems likely that the U.S. will be downgraded to anocracy again in the near future.
POLITICAL ORGANIZING AROUND IDENTITY: According to Walter:
“The second factor was whether populations in these partial democracies began to organize politically, not around ideology — so, not based on whether... you’re a liberal or a conservative — but where the parties themselves were based almost exclusively around identity: ethnic, religious or racial identity. The quintessential example of this is what happened in the former Yugoslavia.” [emphasis added]
Given that many in the extreme right in the U.S. now consider themselves to be white, “Christian,” nationalists, it would appear that the second factor applies to the U.S.
THE THREE STAGES OF INSURGENCY: 1) pre-insurgency, 2) incipient conflict & 3) open insurgency
Walter describes the three stages of insurgency from the CIA “manual on insurgency” (i.e., Guide to the Analysis of Insurgency).
“The first stage is pre-insurgency. And that’s when you start to have groups beginning to mobilize around a particular grievance. And it’s oftentimes just a handful of individuals who are just deeply unhappy about something. And they begin to articulate those grievances. And they begin to try to grow their membership.
“The second stage is called the incipient conflict stage. And that’s when these groups begin to build a military arm. Usually a militia. And they’d start to obtain weapons, and they’d start to get training. And they’ll start to recruit from the ex-military or military and from law enforcement. Or they’ll actually — if there’s a volunteer army, they’ll have members of theirs join the military in order to get not just the training, but also to gather intelligence.
[emphasis added]
[See more under the cut]
“And, again, when the CIA put together this manual, it’s about what they have observed in their experience in the field in other countries. And as you’re reading this, it’s just shocking the parallels. And the second stage, you start to have a few isolated attacks. And in the manual, it says, really the danger in this stage is that governments and citizens aren’t aware that this is happening. And so when an attack occurs, it’s usually just dismissed as an isolated incident, and people are not connecting the dots yet. And because they’re not connecting the dots, the movement is allowed to grow until you have open insurgency, when you start to have a series of consistent attacks, and it becomes impossible to ignore.” [emphasis added]
The U.S. now has lots of right-wing militias/ groups like the Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers, and the Three Percenters who have armed and trained members (e.g., former and current members of the military and law enforcement). Walter points out that because of 20 years of war in the Middle East, veterans of those conflicts are “a ready-made subset of the population that you can recruit from.”
What a 21st Century U.S. Civil War Would Look Like
According to Walter:
“What we’re heading toward is an insurgency, which is a form of a civil war. That is the 21st-century version of a civil war, especially in countries with powerful governments and powerful militaries.... An insurgency tends to be much more decentralized, often fought by multiple groups. Sometimes they’re actually competing with each other. Sometimes they coordinate their behavior.... They target infrastructure. They target civilians. They use domestic terror and guerrilla warfare. Hit-and-run raids and bombs.
[...]
“Here it’s called leaderless resistance. And that method of how to defeat a powerful government like the United States is outlined in what people are calling the bible of the far right: “The Turner Diaries,” which is this fictitious account of a civil war against the U.S. government... And one of the things it says is, Do not engage the U.S. military.... Go directly to targets around the country that are difficult to defend and disperse yourselves so it’s hard for the government to identify you and infiltrate you and eliminate you entirely.”
[edited]
#gop#us politics#civil war#insurgency#jan. 6th#trump#barbara f walter#kk ottesen#white christian nationalists#the washington post
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THE ACTIVISTS WHO CHANGED AMERICA, IN PHOTOS
Miss Rosen for Huck
Never let it be said that one person can’t change the world. That is the central tenet of KK Ottesen’s new book, Activist: Portraits of Courage(Chronicle Books). From Angela Davis, Tarana Burke and Gabrielle Giffords to Bernie Sanders, Edward Snowden, and Avram Finkelstein, Ottesen profiles 40 American activists who have dedicated their lives to the fight for human rights.
“They say leaders are born; I think they are made,” Dolores Huerta, labour leader and civil rights activist tells Ottesen in the book. “People choose to be activists, choose to be leaders. Anybody can do it, but you have to make the decision. And you have to sacrifice the most precious resource that you have, which is your time.”
Activism is not a one-time action, but a mindset – a commitment to the ongoing struggle against oppression, exploitation and injustice that has fired up mass global movements today from Hong Kong to Chile. “I think it’s important to realise that ‘there are no final victories,’ as Dr. Harry Edwards put it,” Ottesen says.
Read the Full Story at Huck
Top: Angela Davis © KK Ottesen
Bottom: L/Tarana Burke. R/Harry Edwards © KK Ottesen
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Book, “Activist”, KK Ottesen. #bookstagram #book #books #booklover #reading #acrivist https://www.instagram.com/p/CWROIaphaKI/?utm_medium=tumblr
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Repost from @thelilynews ・・・ Meet Jeanne Mancini. She is the president of the March for Life Education and Defense Fund. "You can’t back down because of fear, or what people think, or your reputation," she says. (lettering by @sawduststudio; interviews and photos by KK Ottesen) #prolife #prowoman #prolifegen
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From today’s Washington Post Sunday Magazine. Photos by John McDonnell @j_macpost ; interview by KK Ottesen. One quote: “...And then this guy comes along, who I think disrespects the Oval Office every day. Lies to us all the time. Bullies people. I felt I had a unique voice and that I couldn’t just sit by and not do anything. I don’t know that I could have lived with myself if I didn’t speak out. I wouldn’t be doing this if Mitt Romney was president, if John McCain was president, Jeb Bush, John Kasich. This is not a partisan thing. It’s a citizen thing.” https://ift.tt/2H8LLpX
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From today’s Washington Post Sunday Magazine. Photos by John McDonnell @j_macpost ; interview by KK Ottesen. One quote: “...And then this guy comes along, who I think disrespects the Oval Office every day. Lies to us all the time. Bullies people. I felt I had a unique voice and that I couldn’t just sit by and not do anything. I don’t know that I could have lived with myself if I didn’t speak out. I wouldn’t be doing this if Mitt Romney was president, if John McCain was president, Jeb Bush, John Kasich. This is not a partisan thing. It’s a citizen thing.” https://ift.tt/2H8LLpX
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Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey said Friday that he will seek the Democratic nomination for president, adding his name to a growing and increasingly diversified field of 2020 candidates intent on taking on President Trump. “The history of our nation is defined by collective action; by interwoven destinies of slaves and abolitionists; of those born here and those who chose America as home; of those who took up arms to defend our country, and those who linked arms to challenge and change it,” Booker said in a video to supporters, which made repeated references to Trump and his actions as president. (Photo by KK Ottesen for The Washington Post) http://bit.ly/2t0qs1C
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Madeleine Albright: 'Somos o pior exemplo possível de coisas. E isso está nos machucando.
Madeleine Albright: ‘Somos o pior exemplo possível de coisas. E isso está nos machucando.
KK Ottesen – The Washington Post
Madeleine Albright, 83, serviu no governo Clinton como embaixadora dos EUA nas Nações Unidas e como primeira secretária de Estado do país. Ela recebeu a Medalha Presidencial da Liberdade em 2012. Seu último livro de memórias, ” Inferno e Outros Destinos “, foi publicado no início deste ano.
Você alude no título do seu último livro a algo que você disse…
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Author KK Ottesen talks new book 'Activist: Portraits of Courage'
Author KK Ottesen talks new book ‘Activist: Portraits of Courage’
Dozens of activists who were photographed and profiled in the book, “Activist: Portraits of Courage.”
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Book Excerpt: 'Activist' by KK Ottesen
Into that void steps the new book Activist: Portraits of Courage, in which ... that there were those of us fighting against police brutality for decades.
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ABAJournal
Marcus Bullock, who grew up in Washington, D.C., was just 15 when he went to prison. He has been out of prison for 15 years now. “I want to create my own destiny instead of relying on someone else.” https://t.co/QQb2mnKCZe #MarkedForLife #secondchance
Photo by KK Ottesen pic.twitter.com/wLaC43EsUA
— ABA Journal (@ABAJournal) July 14, 2019
via Blogger https://ift.tt/30z13dX https://ift.tt/20qd6Z0
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José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) will focus his humanitarian efforts on Washington this week, when his nonprofit launches a relief kitchen to feed furloughed federal workers in the region. The decision to open a food kitchen only steps away from the White House and the U.S. Capitol is both practical and symbolic, the restaurateur and Nobel Peace Prize nominee told The Post during a phone interview from Puerto Rico on Monday. “I believe it’s an emergency,” Andrés told The Post about the partial federal shutdown. “I believe these people are going to be suffering, and we are a food relief organization.” But on another level, the relief kitchen is a symbolic display designed to spark political dialogue to end the shutdown, which is in its 23rd day. In a video posted to social media announcing the D.C. initiative, Andrés said he hoped the kitchen would motivate the government to act. Read more on washingtonpost.com. (Photo by KK Ottesen/For The Washington Post) http://bit.ly/2Fw0p9Y
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José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) will focus his humanitarian efforts on Washington this week, when his nonprofit launches a relief kitchen to feed furloughed federal workers in the region. The decision to open a food kitchen only steps away from the White House and the U.S. Capitol is both practical and symbolic, the restaurateur and Nobel Peace Prize nominee told The Post during a phone interview from Puerto Rico on Monday. “I believe it’s an emergency,” Andrés told The Post about the partial federal shutdown. “I believe these people are going to be suffering, and we are a food relief organization.” But on another level, the relief kitchen is a symbolic display designed to spark political dialogue to end the shutdown, which is in its 23rd day. In a video posted to social media announcing the D.C. initiative, Andrés said he hoped the kitchen would motivate the government to act. Read more on washingtonpost.com. (Photo by KK Ottesen/For The Washington Post) http://bit.ly/2Fw0p9Y
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Activists — in their many forms and with their varied causes — have long challenged and reshaped our social and political consciousness. But why do certain people choose activism? At a time of deep division around the country, 10 activists from across the political spectrum reveal the stories of what has sustained them on their journeys and how they — or how any of us — can heed the call to make a difference. Read their stories through the link in our bio. (Photos: KK Ottesen) http://ift.tt/2uvZDBE
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Activists — in their many forms and with their varied causes — have long challenged and reshaped our social and political consciousness. But why do certain people choose activism? At a time of deep division around the country, 10 activists from across the political spectrum reveal the stories of what has sustained them on their journeys and how they — or how any of us — can heed the call to make a difference. Read their stories through the link in our bio. (Photos: KK Ottesen) http://ift.tt/2uvZDBE
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