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NHL PLAYOFF PRIMER 2018

It’s that time of year again when we take the last 6 months of hard-fought regular season and chuck it straight out the window - PLAYOFFS PLAYOFFS PLAYOFFS

This season in the NHL featured zero surprises and happened exactly as we all expected, with Vegas winning their division and Colorado and New Jersey making the playoffs. Nothing unusual there.

Likewise, the playoffs will be extremely easy to predict, so without further ado:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

#1 Tampa Bay Lightning vs WC2 New Jersey Devils

The league’s top offense by a mile will face the league’s most criminally-underrated goaltender, Corey Schneider, who after years of toiling with a terrible Devils team, will finally get his chance to shine - wait, I’m being handed something here...yes, okay, scratch all that, as the Devils are reportedly starting Keith Kincaid between the pipes, who I’m pretty sure is actually Keanu Reeve’s character in Point Break. Nevertheless, with an unproven goaltender who may actually be a fictional character standing up to the onslaught of Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov, it’s tough to pick New Jersey in this one - Lightning in five.

#2 Boston Bruins vs #3 Toronto Maple Leafs

The NHL’s weird playoff format results in the #4 team in the league playing the #7 team in the league in the first round. Toronto’s young talent have taken the next step this year, with Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, and William Nylander leading the charge and bringing the Leafs back to relevance. Boston, meanwhile, has ridden an aging core and new young talent of their own back to the playoffs. Tuukka Rask is playing lights-out in Boston’s net, but will 40-year-old Zdeno Chara be able to keep up with the speedy Leafs? An absolute must-watch series goes the distance and the young Leafs pull the upset (and get revenge for 2013) over a legit Cup contender in Boston - Leafs in 7. Metropolitan Division

#1 Washington Capitals vs WC1 Columbus Blue Jackets

Ah, our good friends the Washington Capitals advance to the playoffs once more. Alex Ovechkin put up 49 goals to win his 7th Rocket Richard Trophy, and the Capitals are icing a team deep at all positions, albeit arguably not as good as past years. They get a relative unknown in the Blue Jackets, who TOTALLY DIDN’T LOSE THEIR LAST GAME ON PURPOSE TO AVOID PITTSBURGH. THAT DIDN’T HAPPEN. DO NOT INSINUATE THAT NHL TEAMS LOSE GAMES ON PURPOSE. DON’T DO IT. Anyway, the Blue Jackets put the usual first-round scare into the Capitals by taking Game 1 in Washington, but the Caps figure it out and take this series in 6.

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs #3 Philadelphia Flyers

Again, the NHL playoff structure is fucking weird - though they’re the #2 & #3 seeds in their division, Pittsburgh and Philly finished with the 10th and 13th best records in the league, respectively. In fact, I wonder if Pittsburgh has set a record here for being the worst team to have home ice. That said, they still had 47 wins and 3 players finish in the top 10 in point scoring - plus, they’re the 2-time defending champions with the best player in the world on their roster, so yeah, Pittsburgh in 6. Philly will make it interesting and this is another must-watch series because it will be old-school bloody hockey, but the Flyers lack the depth to come out of this one.

Western Conference

Central Division

#1 Nashville Predators vs WC2 Colorado Avalanche

The President’s Trophy-winning Predators take on a team that posted 48 points last year. Pretty hard to pick the Avalanche in this one, Hart Trophy candidate Nathan MacKinnon’s game-breaking play notwithstanding. Colorado got in to the playoffs on their last game, beating St. Louis in a game that sent the winner to the playoffs, so they’ll be fired up and ready to go, while Nashville locked up their playoff spot weeks ago and stormed their way to the league’s best record. Last year’s runner up will likely go back to the Finals again, and given that Colorado is a weak team aside from MacKinnon, Nashville wins in 5.

#2 Winnipeg Jets vs #3 Minnesota Wild

Poor Minnesota - after years of being beat down by Chicago in the playoffs, the Wild finally go to the dance in a year that the Blackhawks are out, and Minny’s reward is that they play the second-best team in the league. Winnipeg’s scoring is positively terrifying, with Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifle, and Patrik Laine tearing it up all year and center Paul Statsny joining the team at the deadline from St. Louis. Minnesota brings resurgent performances from Zach Parise and Erik Staal, but lost their #1 defenseman, Ryan Suter, to a freak ankle injury late in the season. Suter’s out for the playoffs, meaning Minnesota won’t be able to prevent Winnipeg from loading the net. Jets in 5.

Pacific Division

#1 Vegas Golden Knights vs WC1 Los Angeles Kings

Surpassing literally everyone’s expectations, the Vegas Golden Knights got out of the gate fast and barely slowed down all season, finishing with the NHL’s 5th-best record and winning the Pacific Division in their first year as a team. It’s absolutely unheard-of for an expansion team, and that’s what makes this series so hard to pick. Vegas goes into the playoffs as a complete unknown, and they face a Kings squad only 4 years removed from winning 2 Cups in 3 years. A lot has changed for the Kings in the interim, but Jonathan Quick, Anze Kopitar, and Drew Doughty still have championship talent and aspirations. This should be a fun one - Knights in 7.

#2 Anaheim Ducks vs #3 San Jose Sharks

Once more, all three California teams make the playoffs, which virtually guarantees a California matchup in the first round. The Sharks and Ducks form one of the most heated rivalries of the first round (Pittsburgh-Philly is maybe the only bloodier series) and both these teams know how to bring the pain. Expect a lot of close games and probably the most penalty minutes of any series. It’s also a match-up that could go either way, but I’ll pick San Jose in 7.

SECOND ROUND

Eastern Conference

#1 Tampa Bay Lightning vs #3 Toronto Maple Leafs

This year’s bluest matchup pits a battle-hardened, experienced Lightning squad against the upstart young-stars of the Maple Leafs. This will be one of the highest scoring series this year; both teams are better at putting the puck in the net than keeping it out. Goaltenders Andrei Vasilevskiy and Frederick Andersen will have their hands full. Tampa Bay’s offense and experience will win out after Toronto takes a 3-2 series lead. Lightning in 7.

#1 Washington Capitals vs #2 Pittsburgh Penguins

The now-annual event you’ve all been waiting for. Is this the year the Capitals finally exorcise their demons, get over the hump, and get past the hated Penguins and the hated second round? Short answer: no. Long answer: Pittsburgh is one of those teams that has an extra gear in the playoffs. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are capable of taking over series, Matt Murray is able to steal games in net when the offense isn’t there, and with Kris Letang healthy, Pittsburgh’s defense corps is elite. Washington is a good team and I would love to pick them, but it’s Pittsburgh in 7 (meaning once again Washington loses Game 7 at home).

Western Conference

#1 Nashville Predators vs #2 Winnipeg Jets

Two absolute powerhouse teams go at it with a trip to the conference finals on the line. This will be a hell of a series, with both squads capable of lighting the lamp in droves while delivering huge, game-changing hits (Dustin Byfuglien and Ryan Hartman in the same series? Yes please). The star power here will be lights out - PK Subban and Patrik Laine are two of the game’s brightest young studs. A back-and-forth series that sees multiple multi-overtime games will go the distance - Predators in a rocking Game 7 after coming back from down 3-2.

#1 Vegas Golden Knights vs #3 San Jose Sharks

San Jose is almost the Washington Capitals of the West - great regular-season team, underwhelming in the playoffs, with a long-time, charismatic-and-at-times-controversial star in Joe Thornton that’s never won a Cup. Thornton’s at least been to the Final, losing to the Penguins just a couple years ago, but if he never wins it, it would be fair to say he and Ovechkin would be two of the best players not to win. It would also be fair to say that if Vegas won a Cup before San Jose and Washington, expansion franchises themselves, that the collective saltiness of their fans would turn the Great Lakes into the Dead Sea. Knights in 6.

CONFERENCE FINALS

Eastern Conference

#1 Tampa Bay Lightning vs #2 Pittsburgh Penguins

A re-match of the 2016 Eastern Conference Final, this will be a series for the ages with the Lightning looking to avenge their loss two years ago and the Penguins looking for a chance at a three-peat. Tampa Bay will look to overwhelm with their speed and scoring, but Pittsburgh can match speed with guys like Carl Hagelin and Kris Letang and are no slouches at putting in pucks. A back-and-forth series will need all seven games, but this year the Lightning emerge victorious, ending Pittsburgh’s title defense and returning the Lightning to the Final after a 3-year absence.

Western Conference

#1 Nashville Predators vs #1 Vegas Golden Knights

Last year’s runner up versus this year’s Cinderella story. In a way, this series represents the future of the NHL - Nashville took some time but have evolved into a premier franchise and a for-real hockey market, while Vegas hit the ground running and have driven home the idea of hockey in non-traditional markets. The luck will run out for Vegas, though (how many of those puns are you going to hear in the playoffs? I’ll take the over); Nashville is a complete squad top-to-bottom, while Vegas is a team largely of unknowns and cast-offs. The Knights have had an admirable first season and a trip to the Conference Finals is a success beyond what any could have imagined, but the Predators’ championship window is wide open and they’re going to break through to a consecutive Finals appearance. Nashville in 6.

STANLEY CUP FINAL

#1 Nashville Predators vs #1 Tampa Bay Lightning

The final showdown pits two recent losers against each other - Nashville last year and Tampa Bay in 2015. Both teams have legitimate star power, depth at every position, and great storylines. PK Subban and Steven Stamkos chasing their first Cups, Nikita Kucherov and Filip Forsberg putting on dazzling moves, and Pekka Rinne and Andrei Vasilevskiy trading highlight reel saves - what more do you want? It’s really hard to predict this one, but I’m sticking to my guns and calling it for Nashville as the Predators win their first Stanley Cup in a thrilling 6-game series, eventually throwing the rowdiest Stanley Cup parade in league history. Pekka Rinne wins the Conn Smythe as MVP of the playoffs.

#NHL #NHL Playoffs #Stanley Cup Playoffs

[rosstalksabouthockey]

LOYALTY IS KILLING YOUR HOCKEY TEAM (OR MAYBE IT ISN’T, I DON’T KNOW)

Loyalty is talked about a lot in sports. You’ll hear fans use it to describe players like Shane Doan: here’s a player who, by all accounts, would likely have been able to earn more money (and arguably more success) by testing the free agent market and signing with a team with money to spend and talent to spare, two qualities that have rarely applied to the only team Doan has ever played for: the Arizona (formerly Phoenix) Coyotes (who are also the former Winnipeg Jets, not to be confused with the current Winnipeg Jets).

Now, Doan gets a fair amount of respect for remaining loyal to the Coyotes, and he should, especially because the team has rarely repaid that loyalty by giving Doan anything close to an NHL hockey team to lead. Since their move to Phoenix, the Coyotes have made it past the first round of the playoffs just once - the 2012 postseason in which they made a surprise run to the Western Conference Finals, only to step in front of the unyielding high-speed freight train that was the 2012 LA Kings. Since then, the Coyotes haven’t been back to the postseason, and Shane Doan is almost in line to be the next “old guy who’s never won a Cup that gets traded to a contender and either wins and retires or loses goes on to play for a team somehow worse than his original team (looking at you, Jarome Iginla).”

Meanwhile, that Kings team was led to their 2012 and 2014 championships by Dustin Brown. Like Doan, Brown has played for only one team in his career. The Kings named Brown their captain in 2008, making him the youngest player (23) and first American to wear the “C” in Los Angeles. At that point, Brown had just come off the best offensive season of his career: 33 goals and 27 assists for 60 points (he did top that assists marker with 32 in 2009-10). Between the Kings’ two titles, GM Dean Lombardi re-signed Brown to an 8-year, $47 million contract extension, which works out to a salary cap hit of $5.875 million per year starting in 2014-15. That salary cap hit is significant because at the time Brown was signed, he was playing around a $6 million a year level by most standards, having just won a Stanley Cup and made it back to the Conference Final the following season, where he also scored 18 goals in 46 regular season games (#nomorelockout).

However, Brown’s play has rather sharply declined over the last two seasons - he posted just 11 goals and 27 points in a full 82 games last season, his first with the new contract after putting up the same number of points in 79 games in 2013-14 (Brown’s low total in 2013-14 was also largely overshadowed by the Kings’ Stanley Cup win, which is pretty standard in this kind of situation). In the lockout-shortened 2013 season, Brown put up two more points in 36 fewer games. Think about that - Brown went from 0.76 points-per-game (PPG) in 2007-08 to 0.63 PPG in 2013 to 0.34 PPG in 2014 to 0.32 in 2015. He’s essentially producing at half the rate while getting paid much more - when Brown signed his extension, in 2013, his cap hit was only $3.175 million.

This season, Brown has 3 assists and no goals in 12 games, which puts him at 0.25 PPG - literally a point every fourth game, or on pace for 21 points (and that’s rounding up). I told a few friends that I would try to explain things in layman’s terms on this blog, so all you new hockey fans listen up: 21 points in a full 82-game season IS TOO FEW FOR A PLAYER MAKING NEARLY SIX MILLION DOLLARS A YEAR.

Brown’s salary cap hit is especially important in this case because it’s a large hit on a cash-strapped team; the Kings, like most of the contenders in today’s NHL, have been right up against the salary cap for the last few years. That wouldn’t be as big a problem if the Kings hadn’t missed the playoffs last year, which does bring me to my larger point: loyalty, whether it’s on behalf of the team, the player, or both, can come back to bite you in the ass. Players don’t always maintain their level of play, and teams don’t always maintain their roster.

It goes both ways - Shane Doan’s loyalty has both helped his team by providing veteran leadership at a relative bargain price (you don’t really want to read another stat breakdown, do you?) and hurt them by preventing them from trading him for other quality players or high draft picks. In turn, the Coyotes can be said to have both benefited Doan by continually offering him long-term contracts and no movement clauses and yet hindered his career by not putting together a competent enough team to allow Doan to compete for a Stanley Cup (whether Doan is the type of player who could lead a contender to a championship is a debate for another article - literally, I plan to write an article about good players on bad teams).

Likewise, Dean Lombardi’s loyalty to Dustin Brown - namely, that 8-year contract, which still has SEVEN MORE YEARS (including this one) on it, may have taken a toll on the Kings’ ability to win championships. Say what you will about Dustin Brown’s locker room contributions, but the Kings are paying him a very large amount of their available salary cap to put up fewer points than Tyler Myers, Dion Phaneuf, and Danny DeKeyser (don’t worry, casual fans, we’ll get you there). As Los Angeles looks for any way to shed salary, including terminating players’ contracts without precedent and getting away with it, you have to wonder why they haven’t done more to rid themselves of a player that, by all indications, is no longer worth his contract.

I’m not kidding, Doc Emrick just did an ad read for Discover Card, saying “Show your loyalty!”

The Kings aren’t the only team to sign a player to a long-term contract based on what proved to be overestimation. Players like Bryan Bickell, David Clarkson, Dave Bolland, Tyler Myers, Rick DiPietro, and many more have failed to live up to expectations after turning big short-term performances into big long-term contracts. Bryan Bickell’s case in particular is fascinating because it’s a situation in which both the player and team lost pretty badly by being loyal. 

After scoring 9 goals and 17 points in the 2013 playoffs and seemingly breaking out to become another of the Blackhawks’ long list of stars, GM Stan Bowman signed Bickell to a four-year, $16 million dollar deal. Four million dollars a year was a huge step up in salary for Bickell, who was coming off an entry level deal, but it’s not inconceivable to think he could have gotten even more money on the free market; NHL GMs are notorious for giving ridiculously expensive deals to steal players away from other franchises (just ask the Philadelphia Flyers). Bickell arguably took a “hometown discount” to stay with the Blackhawks, and boy, do I wonder how badly Stan Bowman wishes Bryan Bickell thought like Brandon Saad - the Blackhawks just reassigned Bickell to the AHL, making him one of the highest paid players in the minors, which doesn’t carry quite the same cachet as it does in the big leagues. The Blackhawks have managed to stay competitive in spite of Bickell’s contract and severe drop-off in play, but many fans have speculated if Patrick Sharp, Nick Leddy, Brandon Saad, Johnny Oduya, or perhaps another of the many former championship Blackhawks who are actually worth their contracts could still be with the club if Bickell had walked. (Yes, I am one of those fans.)

Obviously loyalty frequently works out well for teams - there are plenty of long-term contracts in the league given to guys who deserve them, and plenty of those guys could have earned more money on another team but stayed committed to their original club. Players like Steve Yzerman, Joe Sakic, Jonathan Toews, and Sidney Crosby have enjoyed long-term success and have made sacrifices for their team, and various clubs have been patient and loyal to players that have developed into stars...and some haven’t been.

Wait, you didn’t think you were going to read an article about loyalty that contained NO mention of Tyler Seguin? Come on.

At this point, the story is pretty famous, but for those who don’t know, the Boston Bruins somehow finagled their way into the number 2 draft pick in 2010 (it’s actually a fantastic story that involves a player who probably has plenty to say about loyalty). After Edmonton took Taylor Hall (the first of their eventual six billion first overall picks), the Bruins picked Tyler Seguin and went on to win the Stanley Cup the following year, Seguin’s first in the NHL. However, Seguin and Bruins management clashed, with (unfounded) rumors of partying, drinking, and locker room conflict eventually leading to Seguin being traded to the Dallas Stars after the Bruins’ 2013 Final run. Since the trade, Seguin has developed into one of the premiere scorers in the league, and while that individual success has yet to develop into team success yet with his new club, it’s hard not to wonder what Seguin might have done with a Boston club that, despite some salary cap concerns, was largely stacked and deep and ready to compete for years to come (though many of their management decisions in recent years may have doomed the club regardless of Seguin). 

Oh, and Seguin dumped a hat trick on the Bruins the other night, so, you know. Payback and all.

Remember how I said I had a larger point? Well, I forget what it was originally, but the point now is that it is insanely difficult to accurately predict the longevity of NHL players, and your GM’s loyalty has just as much a chance to hurt the team as it does help it. Hopefully this does wonders for your psyche as you obsess over your team’s projected salary cap in 2018.

#mostly I'm just sick of douchebags proclaiming that LOYALTY IS EVERYTHING #and I like to make fun of my Bruins-fan friends by reminding them about Tyler Seguin with every chance I get #loyalty #nhl #shane doan #dustin brown #tyler seguin

[rosstalksabouthockey]

FIRST POST: THE HUNT FOR RED OCTOBER OR, HOW I LEARNED TO STOP WORRYING AND LOVE THE HYPE

Depending on what team you follow, the month of October can be indicative that your team is destined for glory or a meaninglessly small sample of games that in no way signals impending doom.

If October’s games have anything in common across the NHL, it’s that they are ludicrously over-analyzed, regardless of the conclusion of that analysis. Part of that, of course, is simple enthusiasm: HOCKEY IS BACK WE CAN FINALLY STOP TALKING ABOUT CONTRACT EXTENSIONS AND START TALKING ABOUT GOALS. The hockey media pumps out hundreds of articles about whether to panic or stay the course on your team’s opening slate because that’s what you want; it’s what we all want on Tuesday when work is slow and screw those TPS reports, let’s obsess over who had a worse start relative to their expectations, Columbus or Anaheim!

Then November rolls around, and teams like Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, and Boston have all turned bad starts into hot streaks, while the Pacific Division is so laughable this season that the Ducks, despite literally being last in the Western Conference with two wins in 11 games, are still only three wins out of a playoff spot. Columbus, meanwhile, might be in for a long season - they’ve dropped 2 straight after posting their first two wins of the season, bringing their record to a shocking 2-10. 

And of course, it’s still early, but we’ve now played at least 12% of the season (10 game is the least any team has played as of writing) and sooner or later we can start to call patterns legitimate trends. Anaheim isn’t yet that far out of a playoff spot, but they’ve scored the fewest goals of any team in the league - a whopping 14 of them, and four of those were scored last night against Nashville (holy shit, before last night Anaheim had TEN GOALS IN TEN GAMES). Ducks fans obviously hope the win against Nashville, a team famous for stout defense, is a sign the Ducks have re-found the scoring touch they apparently decided to trust in Bilbo Baggins’ possession this past offseason, but a team that brought back most of their roster from their Western Conference Final run has already been shut out more times in October than all of last season, so they still have a lot of work to do.

All of this does nothing to answer the question of October’s significance in the grand scheme of an 82-game season, and that’s because that question seems to get harder to answer every year. This season has already had a ludicrous amount of early drama, from Sidney Crosby’s pointless streak to the aforementioned atrocious play of teams thought to be contenders to the emergence of 3-on-3 overtime as a wonderfully clownshoes solution to the shootout problem. Teams have come back from bad starts before (just ask Claude Giroux) and players have posted respectable numbers after long draughts. October vexes many hockey fans because the small sample size mixes with the early season feeling-out periods most teams experience to form a potent cocktail of worry, hype, and overreaction, and that last one is one thing we actually have not seen much of over this season.

Despite some rampant speculation, only one coach has been fired so far this season - Todd Richards of the Blue Jackets, who was replaced by John Tortorella after the team dropped their seventh straight game to open the season. Ducks coach Bruce Boudreau is widely considered closest to being the season’s next casualty, especially given Anaheim’s success in recent years and how jaw-droppingly bad they have been so far. Anaheim’s four-goal outbreak against Nashville will have cooled Boudreau’s seat only temporarily, but Anaheim’s GM has resolved to be patient for the time-being. Los Angeles Kings bench boss Daryl Sutter has silenced rumors that his job might be in jeopardy by leading the Kings on a 7-game winning streak (broken tonight by Chicago) after dropping their first three games. Sutter was thought to be on thin ice after the Kings missed the playoffs (and their chance to defend their 2014 championship) last season, but Kings management has never publicly expressed any desire to replace their head coach and now the Kings are on top of the Pacific (which, it bears repeating, looks to be this year’s joke division). 

Calgary’s Bob Hartley is probably next on the list, given the Flames were widely seen as having improved in the offseason (many people thought the Flames would regress from their surprise finish to last season, but with the additions of Dougie Hamilton and Michael Frolik, few thought it would this bad). If the Flames continue to drop games, Hartley seems likely to be shown the door, given that management has made strides to given him capable players. 

It looks like this year’s crop of GMs are taking a wait-and-see approach, mirroring the trend we’ve seen in recent years of more calculated decisions by management in a league where the margin for error is razor thin and teams can seemingly make or break their seasons in a matter of personnel decisions (inb4 every trend has outliers). 

Luckily for them and the fans, November is here, and, as we all know, NOW is the time we can make surefire judgements on the state of our teams and the direction to move in for the remainder of the season. 

#if you thought there was a way to solve October you never knew what you were getting into #nhl #hockey