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agameoftragedy · 3 years

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What’s the outfalls if lysa died from her forced abortion? Does the story get out? How does that effect relationships with cat, byrden and hoster? What would hoster’s actions be like after be basically killed his daughter for ego? How does this effect Petyr’s feelings? What are some other ways thing effects things and dynamics? What does hoster do with Jon?

Ok, here are my thoughts:

I believe the situation was that it was only after the duel over Cat's hand where Petyr was badly injured that Hoster found out about Lysa being pregnant. We know they managed to keep it secret from Cat despite her living in the same household, so it wasn't broadcast in canon.

I can't find a specific timeline, but we know the Tullys didn't attend the tourney at Harrenhal despite being so close and related to the Whents, so maybe this is (part of) why? In which case the agreement with Jon Arryn was probably not reached until after the moon tea had done its business and Jon wouldn't know anything more than anyone else.

So who does know about the pregnancy? Lysa and Hoster, obviously, the maester presumably, if Petyr doesn't know it wouldn't be hard to put together, and we know from Lollys' situation that bed maids and such will observe things like that (maybe it was one of them who informed Hoster?). We don't know how far along Lysa was, but enough for her to know for sure despite not having been pregnant before, so maybe into her second trimester, but if the news managed to escape Cat then the secrecy must have been intense that it wasn't easily spreading through the castle. We don't know what Brynden knew, if anything.

If she dies, I think it's an even harder lockdown on that information. She died of a fever, or something along those lines - she'd already been vomiting (probably) and staying in her rooms, she was very ill, very unfortunate. Her bedmaids would know better, but if they want to keep their jobs they're gonna keep their mouths shut. Hoster's not going to talk about it (more on him later), the maester will almost certainly keep his peace. Some people might speculate, but with no actual evidence. The potential fly in the ointment is Petyr.

We know in the actual story Petyr knows about bedding Lysa and the loss of their child, but it's not clear if Lysa told him that later. Even if Lysa didn't get the chance to tell Petyr about the pregnancy beforehand, I think he knows she slept with him at least once (he was massively drunk the first time) and he's a fairly intelligent guy, it wouldn't be hard for him to figure out that she was pregnant and died relative to that. Because, after all, without evidence of moon tea, she might have had a horrible miscarriage and bled out without some special intervention - still scandalous because she was pregnant outside of marriage, but not as potentially demonising of Hoster. We know Petyr holds a fuckton of resentment towards House Tully and the high nobles, so it depends how he takes the news of Lysa's death from his fathered pregnancy: is that revenge served through the loss of a daughter? Or is he still resentful and easily spreading the news she was pregnant and maybe rumours that she was killed for bringing shame on House Tully?

But the other thing with Petyr is who he is without Lysa at Jon Arryn's side requesting positions for him. He has capabilities, but who's going to notice if he's just a very minor lord on the outskirts of the Vale? His only in would be trying to blackmail Hoster to get him a better position, and I don't know that Hoster would play ball on that. So Petyr might just be in the Fingers bitterly bad mouthing the Tullys to anyone who bothers to listen.

I think an interesting thing is Hoster himself, because his only (and seemingly beloved) wife died in childbirth, and Lysa's death would probably be quite reminiscent of that but more explicitly at his own hands. I think that would be triggering af - but I also think Hoster is great at emotional suppression and repression, and it might only burst forth in front of someone when he's delirious or getting dementia towards the end, as in canon.

But, practically speaking, for the storyline... so Cat was betrothed to Brandon, Brandon's dead. Theoretically the Tullys could side with the Targaryens or try and stay out of it until later like Tywin. What Aerys did was horrendous, but do you want to fight him without particular benefits? Maybe Cat could marry a Targ loyalist instead, like Oberyn Martell (weird to imagine).

Let's just go with original timeline, Cat marries Ned and say that's enough without the Arryn marriage, say Hoster feels strongly about the royal abuses. And that the rest goes as in canon: King Robert, Queen Cersei, Lady Catelyn Stark... Maybe Jon Arryn takes a different wife or starts grooming Harrold Hardyng as the next Arryn heir. I see no reason why Jon wouldn't make the same investigations after prodding by Stannis, but probably any wife he may have wouldn't poison him in the middle of it. I think Cersei might try to speed up Robert's accidental death, so either Robert is presented with the facts and Lannisters are executed, or Robert dies and the civil war breaks out, but this time the Vale is in as well as the North (led by Ned) and Riverlands, and Stannis has a respected figure with no obvious bias making his claim for him, far more likely to succeed.

Tullys are sad about Lysa, Hoster is racked with guilt, Petyr is minor and bitter, but overall the realm is probably better off :/

#asoiaf hypotheticals #asoiaf aus #anon #house tully

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