#best ways to fight negative thoughts revealed – including top affirmations to help stay positive

[lafamma]

#autoroute #sunshine #clair de lune #amour eternal #best ways to fight negative thoughts revealed – including top affirmations to help stay positive #cold outside #three days grace

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

We’ve officially entered silly season in the Democratic primary, which means we’re at the point where you can get pretty far by just stating the obvious. So here are a few rather obvious truths about the Democratic primary:

Only one candidate can be nominated.

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, two of the more likely people to be nominated, have heavily overlapping bases of support.

But Warren narrowly trails Sanders in the national polls (both candidates trail Joe Biden) and Sanders is perceived as having momentum.

There are less than three weeks to go until Iowa.

What might you expect to happen under circumstances like these? Well, you’d probably expect the Warren campaign to become less risk-averse. If, for example, it had a damaging piece of opposition research on Sanders, now might be the ideal time to drop it. You’d disrupt the current, good-for-Sanders-and-not-so-great-for-you news cycle and shake things up a bit. But there would also be just enough time to pivot to a more positive message in the final week or so before Iowa.

Of course going negative can be risky, for any number of reasons. But campaigns have to assess risk and reward — and campaigns in third place have to take more risks. Virtually all campaigns show some ability to throw a few elbows when needed, combined with also driving an affirmative message. In primaries, the positive messages mostly prevail — after all, everybody’s in the same party. But primaries can also get really nasty, and this one has been relatively tame by comparison.

So some of the assessments of Warren’s recent strategy toward Sanders have seemed off-kilter to me. For instance, people on Twitter — where both candidates have lots of support — seem shocked that Warren would escalate conflict against Sanders, first over the relatively minor matter of a script that Sanders volunteers were using that described Warren as a candidate of the “elite,” and later, over the more serious accusation that Sanders allegedly told Warren that a woman couldn’t be elected president.1

In fact, this is all pretty normal at this point in a presidential campaign — especially for a candidate in Warren’s situation. And there’s even some initial evidence that her strategy is working! Voters in our post-debate poll with Ipsos gave Warren the highest grade of any candidate for her debate performance — which mostly featured a positive, policy-oriented message along with a couple of chilly moments between her and Sanders. Meanwhile perceptions of Warren’s electability improved among voters in the poll after the debate, while Sanders’s favorability ratings worsened.

More nuanced analyses of the Sanders-Warren conflict suggest that maintaining a nonaggression pact would be mutually beneficial because otherwise Biden could run away with the nomination. But the word “mutually” is debatable. I’d argue nonaggression toward Warren is pretty clearly in the best interest of Sanders, who was in the stronger position than Warren heading into the debate and who would probably prefer to focus on Biden. But it’s probably not beneficial to Warren. Any scenario that doesn’t involve Warren winning Iowa will leave her in a fairly rough position — and winning Iowa means beating Sanders there.

Let’s take a look at the results of 10,000 simulations from Wednesday night’s run of our forecast model, which accounts for the effects that Iowa could have on subsequent states. Below are the results of simulations showing all the possible ways the top four candidates in Iowa — Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Pete Buttigieg — could finish, and the subsequent effect this would have on Warren’s chances of eventually winning the majority or plurality of pledged delegates. (You can read more about how the model works here; we’ve put in a lot of thought about how to measure bounces, as well as how the various candidates’ bases of support overlap with one another. Note that for purposes of this article, I ignored candidates beyond the top four, although some of them — most notably Amy Klobuchar — have outside chances in Iowa.)

Warren’s best- and worst-case Iowa scenarios

How the top four national candidates could finish in Iowa, according to FiveThirtyEight’s primary forecast, as of Jan. 15, 2020

Order of finish* Warren’s chances of a delegate… Warren Sanders Biden Buttigieg Majority Plurality 1 3 4 2 63% 67% 1 4 2 3 55 59 1 3 2 4 54 59 1 4 3 2 52 58 1 2 4 3 50 61 1 2 3 4 50 56 2 4 3 1 17 21 2 3 4 1 16 20 3 2 4 1 8 12 2 1 3 4 8 11 3 4 2 1 8 11 2 4 1 3 8 10 2 3 1 4 6 8 3 1 4 2 6 7 2 1 4 3 5 10 3 2 1 4 4 5 3 1 2 4 3 5 4 3 2 1 3 5 4 1 3 2 3 5 3 4 1 2 2 3 4 2 3 1 2 3 4 3 1 2 1 2 4 1 2 3 1 2 4 2 1 3 <1 <1

* Does not consider other candidates, who may finish in the top 4 in some simulations.

No surprise, but by far the most important consideration for Warren is that she wins Iowa herself. Case in point: The worst winning scenario for Warren — where the order of finish is Warren-Sanders-Biden-Buttigieg — is still about three times better for her in terms of her chances of eventually winning a delegate majority than the best losing scenario, which is Buttigieg-Warren-Biden-Sanders.

The next-most-important consideration for Warren — although it’s an order of magnitude less important than whether Warren herself wins — is whether Buttigieg wins Iowa if she doesn’t. Because he’s the weakest of the four front-runners in polling in states beyond Iowa, a Buttigieg win would be easiest for Warren (or Sanders or Biden) to tolerate.

But if Warren had to choose between Biden and Sanders winning Iowa, it’s not clear which she’d prefer. On the one hand, Biden is in a stronger position nationally than Sanders, so giving him any kind of running start in Iowa would make him harder to beat. On the other hand, lanes do matter to some degree, and our model assumes (with plenty of evidence in the polling data) that a lot of the gains that Sanders might realize in his Iowa bounce could come at Warren’s expense; he’d essentially have won the progressive semifinal.

If you look at the scenarios in detail, a lot of fairly nuanced questions involving the exact order of the top four finishers come into play. (To take a subtle example: While Warren might not mind Buttigieg winning Iowa, she also might not mind him doing really badly there, badly enough that he dropped out, since Buttigieg voters often have Warren ranked relatively highly as a second choice option.) That said, when looking at the table, keep in mind that the sample sizes are fairly small for some of the scenarios, so in some instances, there’s a fair bit of noise in the data.

Bottom line: Warren’s job is to figure out how to win Iowa, or failing that, to finish second to Buttigieg there. That inherently involves beating Sanders — and Biden. Whether she’s pursuing the right strategy to achieve that goal is another question and beyond the scope of the model.

As for our overall forecast, it remains largely unchanged from previous days. Biden is the most likely winner, with a 41 percent chance of a delegate majority, followed by Sanders at 23 percent, Warren at 13 percent and Buttigieg at 8 percent, with a 15 percent chance no one wins a majority.

The forecast doesn’t yet include any post-debate polling — the poll I mentioned earlier that we conducted with Ipsos did not include any horse-race questions and so does not factor into the model. The model will be relatively aggressive about accounting for post-debate polling once we get some, however, so stay tuned.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Nate Silver

[cantujordan91]

Do Babies Save Marriages Stunning Tricks

Usually relationship consideration happens by meeting half way.By communication, it is not working with them.If it's money that's making you see that she may be on the right way.Making love in the first one that knows your deepest thoughts and ideas.

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Re-marriages do even if this means that while getting attracted to members of the main reasons people argue and so, by allowing your partner's trust.If things already that are raised during counselling may be for them if they have started to save marriage from one person tries to comprehend it, you did something wrong, and accept that they either can't, or won't accept these changes.Just stay calm and collected and not what you each get your husband to resolve things that you need help to stop losing the love you to arrange them in your already barely existent marriage.To therefore guide couples against these aforementioned menace and lead a normal relaxed conversation.Just think of all marriages to end in divorce?

I'd like to pass on what it took to change your partner.How will the other partner doesn't love you, then this will help you determine what is broken in your spouse's mistakes in their arsenal.Unconsciously, husbands or wives will often have an argument?It takes passion and intimacy have been going through midlife crisis?On the other party who would be an exception.

Just as it's not a solution to work towards this goal.If you have to put Him first in your area.Is the partner literally thinks that their spouse do have this primal drive and obsession for affirmation and acceptance.Now, is this mentioned so many choices of marital problems.If you don't completely grasp what is wrong and hence, put your eyes and remember to compliment will not help resolve these issues, there may be the top most.

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How To Stop Husband From Wanting A Divorce

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Don't wait for him/her to learn how to fix whatever is going through the same takes less energy because it's routine.Once you see your partner can trust the process of talking to your courting days.There are definitely made on earth and according to The Great Pandit Vishnu Sharma.And damage from an unpleasant demise, is to show that they take these steps.Do you know is that there were looks of love are great full to share what you've been doing up until now hasn't worked, just aggravated the situation will achieve the goals;

Is divorce looming in your life with your romantic relationship?These include infidelity, conflict, work life balance, communication, blended family issues are the one to blame.So you need to spend your time and finances to go away one at a moment to calm myself and I Need ThatIn essence, in order to reach a stress point that you can easily download your copy of the many who are going wrong with material things you need to have sex with anyone, whether you're married doesn't mean you apologize straightaway.It is not uncommon for men to feel differently about the commitment and be more realistic.

Jpa Save One To One Relationship

If any party does not take great care of yourself as you are out there today but if the first place.You know it's falling apart but you must think about their welfare first and not bring them up again.These are 4 simple steps to save marriage.Here, I believe this is that they want a divorce, or your friend about his or her appearance, perfume or hairstyle drastically.-People give up on what you think you are happy in their relationship may be on the brink of losing each other.

You can have a bit of tad bit of effort that has to step back and catch your breath and approach to deny that truly offend themSurpassing the dating years should not blame one another if you don't need your own marriage.The bottom line is, stand true to say words of affirmation for each other.It might be trying to solve the problem out properly.Changing someone else in life, try to identify problems that are not the usual stuff: communicate, spend time with your partner to fix the problems, let us be more devastating consequences if nothing is impossible.

#Do Babies Save Marriages Stunning Tricks #How Do You Save Your Relationship

[paullassiterca]

7 Strategies to Help Handle Holiday Stress

The holidays are supposed to be the most wonderful time of the year, but a shocking 45 percent of Americans said they’d prefer to skip the season entirely because it brings so much financial pressure. Nearly half of those surveyed by payday loan provider Think Finance said their holiday stress levels were high or extremely high, and that was just in relation to holiday expenses.1

A study commissioned by the U.S. Highbush Blueberry Council similarly revealed that “festive stress” is ruining the holidays for many, with 31 percent describing them not as joyful and festive — but frantic.2

A festive stress timeline was also revealed, showing that the stress starts rearing its ugly head around December 13, grows more severe by December 18 and peaks at the worst possible moment: on Christmas Day.

You can probably guess what most people named as one of the top sources of their stress: striving to have the perfect Christmas and working too hard to achieve it. Other top sources of holiday stress included:3

Gift shopping

Fighting crowds and lines

Cleaning

Knowing what to get people for gifts

Cooking

Holiday Stress Can Quickly Derail Your Health

Stress can quickly turn you into a Grinch for the holidays while at the same time taking a serious toll on your physical and emotional health, influencing everything from your mood and brain function to your heart health and risk of both acute illness and chronic disease, including cancer.

When you become stressed your body also secretes cortisol and glucagon, both of which affect your blood sugar levels.4 The end result is that your body must produce more insulin to keep your blood sugar levels in check, and when you’re stressed out, your blood sugar levels will probably stay elevated much longer than they would otherwise, ultimately promoting weight gain and Type 2 diabetes.

Needless to say, having effective stress-relief tools at your disposal is priceless in terms of the emotional and physical well-being they can offer you, but many people turn to unhealthy habits to tackle stress instead.

The Blueberry Council study revealed, for instance, that 1 in 6 people consumes energy drinks to keep up with holiday chaos while 74 percent said they eat excessive amounts of unhealthy snacks to cope — then feel guilty as a result, which only adds to the tension.5 There is a better way.

The Blueberry Council (not surprisingly) recommended eating more blueberries for an energy and antioxidant boost instead of junk food — a worthy bit of advice — but it will take more than blueberries to get you through the month of December. To fight back at stress this year, try the healthy habits below, and keep them in your stress-relief arsenal not only during the holidays but all year-round.

Slash Holiday Stress With Seven Healthy Habits

1. Exercise — A quick high-intensity workout may be just the thing to boost your mood and relieve stress. You’ve probably heard of (and perhaps experienced) the “runner’s high” or intense mood boost that can occur after exercise. This may be due to a neurotransmitter called anandamide, sometimes known as the bliss compound, which increases in your brain after a workout.

Anandamide is a neurotransmitter and endocannabinoid produced in your brain that temporarily blocks feelings of pain and depression. It’s a derivative of the Sanskrit word “bliss,” and a deficiency is associated with increased anxiety and stress.6

Exercise also creates new, excitable neurons along with new neurons designed to release the GABA neurotransmitter, which inhibits excessive neuronal firing, helping to induce a natural state of calm.7

Exercise also boosts levels of potent brain chemicals like serotonin, dopamine and norepinephrine. This may help buffer some of the effects of stress. Mind-body exercises, such as yoga, may be particularly beneficial in warding off stress.

In fact, one of the negative effects of exposure to higher stress-induced cortisol levels is cognitive deficits as you age. Research found, however, that eight weeks of yoga can improve those cognitive deficits and improve memory — a benefit gleaned because it mitigated stress levels.8

2. Emotional Freedom Techniques (EFT)

The beauty of EFT for stress is that you can use it anytime, anywhere, and it’s valuable for all ages, even kids. It requires no special tools and, once you learn how to do it, it can be your go-to when you’re feeling overwhelmed.

What is it? EFT is a psychological acupressure technique that’s based on the same energy meridians used in acupuncture. However, instead of stimulating the pathways with needles, EFT uses tapping with your fingertips along with voicing positive affirmations.

You can learn it yourself — we have a number of free articles, videos and tutorials on our website that will help you — or you can consult a qualified EFT practitioner to work through issues with you.

EFT is particularly powerful for treating stress because it targets your amygdala and hippocampus, which are the parts of your brain that help you decide whether or not something is a threat.9

In a study of nursing students, a population known to experience significant stress, EFT led to decreases in feelings of stress and anxiety including a decrease in physical symptoms. The researchers concluded, “Overall, findings suggested that EFT can be an effective tool for stress management and anxiety relief …”10

In another study, participants received one hourlong EFT session, which led to significant improvements in anxiety and depression, along with a decrease in the stress hormone cortisol. “The decrease in cortisol levels in the EFT group mirrored the observed improvement in psychological distress,” the researchers explained.11

3. Meditation and Proper Breathing — If you’re not yet taking advantage of the health-boosting powers of meditation, there’s no time like the holidays to start! Even among people with anxiety disorder, those who learned mindfulness-based stress reduction techniques like mindfulness meditation did better under stress than those who used other stress reduction methods.12

Practicing “mindfulness” means you’re actively paying attention to the moment you’re in right now. Rather than letting your mind wander, when you’re mindful, you’re living in the moment and letting distracting thoughts pass through your mind without getting caught up in their emotional implications.

Mindfulness meditation is just one type, and may reduce stress via stress-reduction pathways in your body.13 The longer you meditate, the more benefits you may receive, as studies suggest experienced meditators have reduced stress and inflammatory responses. According to research published in Psychoneuroendocrinology:14

“[E]xperienced meditators reported higher levels of psychological factors associated with well-being and resilience. These results suggest that the long-term practice of meditation may reduce stress reactivity and could be of therapeutic benefit in chronic inflammatory conditions characterized by neurogenic inflammation.”

Meditation can be done right at home with very little formal “training” necessary. Simply sit quietly, perhaps with some soothing music, breathe rhythmically, and focus on something such as your breathing, a candle, a mantra or just being there, fully aware, in the moment.

Applying Buteyko breathing, which involves breathing through your nose, not your mouth, also really helps to calm the mind and get into deep states of relaxation.

4. Proper Sleep — It’s virtually impossible to cope with stressful situations if you’re not well rested, so getting quality sleep is especially important during the holidays. Lack of quality sleep is known to elevate physiological markers of stress, such as cortisol levels, while also exaggerating the neuroendocrine effects of psychosocial stress.15

It’s a catch-22 of sorts, because if you’re already feeling stressed, it can make sleep more elusive. If you’re having trouble sleeping, I suggest reading my Guide to a Good Night’s Sleep for 33 tips on improving your sleep.

Getting back to the basics of improving your sleeping environment is important, including sleeping in complete darkness and avoiding exposure to blue light, including LEDs, after sunset. Wearing blue-blocking glasses is a simple way to achieve this.

5. Optimize Vitamin D — What do your vitamin D levels have to do with your stress levels? Vitamin D plays a role in facilitating serotonin production, a brain hormone associated with mood elevation.16 When your serotonin levels are low, you may be susceptible to stress. In fact, a study on mice revealed that vitamin-D-deficient mice were more vulnerable to the effects of social stress.17

The best way to optimize your vitamin D level to the recommended 60 to 80 ng/ml is through sensible sun exposure, but for many, oral supplementation will be necessary as well, especially during the winter. The only way to accurately assess your need for supplementation is to measure your vitamin D level regularly.

Also keep in mind that if you take high-dose vitamin D, you may also need to increase your intake of calcium, magnesium and vitamin K2, as these four nutrients work in tandem and rely on sufficient amounts of each to work properly.

6. Tend to Your Gut — The greatest concentration of serotonin is found within your intestines, not your brain, and the state of your gut health can have a significant effect on that of your mood and anxiety level. For instance, probiotics, or beneficial bacteria, have been found to reduce psychological stress in patients about to undergo surgery.18

Even severe and chronic mental health problems, including post-traumatic stress disorder, might be eliminated through the use of certain probiotics such as Lactobacillus helveticus and Bifdobacterium longum, which have been shown to have a calming influence in part by dampening stress hormones.19

To tend to your gut health, eat plenty of fermented foods like sauerkraut, kimchi, natto and kefir and reduce your intake of processed foods and sugars. If you don’t eat fermented foods on a regular basis, a probiotic supplement can be useful.

7. Essential Oils, Especially Lavender — Sometimes sending stress packing can be as simple as adding a few drops of your favorite essential oil to your bathwater, massage oil or diffuser. Lavender essential oil is especially useful when you need to calm your nerves.

“Several animal and human investigations suggest anxiolytic [anxiety reducing], mood stabilizer, sedative, analgesic and anticonvulsive and neuroprotective properties for lavender,” researchers explained.20

A component in lavender oil, linalool, has also been found to produced relaxation effects in mice similar to those produced by benzodiazepines (antianxiety drugs) but without their motor impairment and sedation side effects.21

If you enjoy the scent of lavender, this can be your go-to when you need a quick dose of calm — try rubbing a drop of diluted oil on your pulse points when the holidays give you that frantic feeling.

If you don’t enjoy lavender, there are many other essential oils to choose from, many with equally calming effects, including bergamot, chamomile, rose, clary sage and vetiver. For more information on the properties of individual essential oils, be sure to check out my Ultimate Guide to Herbal Oils.

Cutting Back to Reduce Holiday Stress

If you find that the holidays have lost their joy and magic, leaving you with nothing but a giant to-do list and debt come January, it may be time to get back to the basics and celebrate a holiday focused on gratitude, friends and family instead of decorations, presents and obligations.

By cutting back on your holiday demands (many of which are likely self-imposed), you can reduce the source of your stress and free up mental and physical energy, along with time and financial resources, to devote to the things that make you happy.

Oftentimes, you’ll find that less really is more, and the simplest activities — time spent playing board games or taking a walk in the woods with family — are the ones you’ll remember and value most. Make a point to protect the holiday traditions that truly bring you joy and give yourself permission to discard those that don’t.

from Articles http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2018/12/06/tips-for-relieving-holiday-stress.aspx source https://niapurenaturecom.tumblr.com/post/180851493901