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iloveyoupittsburghpirates-blog · 7 years

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What Could Have Been, Pittsburgh Pirates

My Dearest Pittsburgh Pirates,

It’s a question we will be asking ourselves about this week. You had won the first two games of the series against the first place Milwaukee Brewers and in the third game you had a 3-1 lead. After they cut the lead to 3-2, Daniel Hudson reminded us again the mistake we made in signing him by giving up a two run homer to give the lead to Brewers and eventually the win. You lost the fourth game and what started looking like a potential sweep turned into a split. Hudson tried to ruin the game again on Friday against the Cardinals by giving up another homer but a David Freese RBI single and John Jaso’s 9th inning homer saved the game. You won Saturday as well to guarantee yourself the series win. You had a 4-2 lead last night but managed to blow that thanks in part to Tony Watson, Juan Nicasio, and Clint Hurdle not making a double switch to play an actual outfielder (Gregory Polanco) in right field instead of John Jaso. You still took two out of three in St. Louis giving you a 4-3 week. I would have hoped for better against two division rivals but it’s hard to complain when you perform like that on the road. There’s still hope with you only five games out of first but something needs to change with this bullpen. They are killing you right now.

This team goes as Andrew McCutchen goes and that’s honestly not a good thing. Do you think it’s a coincidence that when Cutch was one of the best in the league you made the playoffs? Last year and earlier this year he struggled and that’s when you have played or worst baseball in five years. Cutch’s 1.186 OPS over the last four weeks has returned him to MVP form. It’s not only his numbers. His entire attitude and confidence has changed. His bat speed has returned and he’s driving outside pitches to the opposite field again. I say all this knowing the reality is that there’s at least a 90 percent chance that Cutch isn’t even on the team opening day of next season. He’s making 14 million this year and has a 14.5 million dollar option for next season that will now certainly get picked up. If you were a big market team, you would resign him with no problem and risk that by the end of the contract he would be in his mid thirties and likely heavily regressing, As a small market team, you don’t have that luxury. Once Cutch is gone, who will you rely on? Polanco’s OPS is currently under .700, Marte’s suspension doesn’t give me the most faith in him, and top prospect Austin Meadows hasn’t wowed in Triple-A and recently got hurt again. Josh Bell is a legitimate middle of the lineup bat but he’s still only batting .233. Someone better step up because once Cutch is gone your opportunity to win might go with it.

Jordy Mercer is quietly having the best season of his career. He has always been a top level defender and that’s been on display again this year as he hadn’t made an error in fifty-two games before the one last night. He had a rough night after missing another grounder that wasn’t an error but that he should have had but he still hadn’t made an error since April 26th. Maybe he can finally get a longer look when they are considering finalists for the Gold Glove at the end of the year. He’s also having the best offensive season of his career with .275/.351/.422 for a .773 OPS. That’s his best since 2013 when he also had a .772 OPS but that was only in 333 at bats. Other than that year, his highest OPS was .703. Mercer has put himself in this situation by going on an absolute tear over the last month. Cutch has been on fire the last four weeks but Mercer has been almost as hot. Over that span, he has splits of .315/.344/.517 for a .861 OPS with five doubles, three triples, three homers, and eleven RBI’s. His BABIP in the month of June is .400 which means he is going to regress, not that I expected him to continue to hit at this pace the rest of the way. I’ve liked his approach at the plate more this season. I believe his improved OBP could be sustainable. He hasn’t been swinging at as many pitches out of the zone which has led to more walks. I’m not sure where his hitting stats will wind up by the end of the season but I do know that his defense will always be award-level worthy.

I’m starting to think Elias Diaz could be really good. Francisco Cervelli returned to the DL this week with concussion problems again and we don’t know when he will return. Diaz will now be splitting time with Chris Stewart and I feel like that shouldn’t even be the case. Stewart got the start in two of the three games this weekend. Diaz has a great arm and terrific blocking ability. The question with Diaz has always been his hitting. This season he has decent splits of .286/.333/.417 for a .750 OPS. That’s not incredible but that’s way better than Stewart will do. The most interesting thing about Diaz is his natural power. He has undeniable pop and that ball flies off his bat when he makes contact. He’s only had 63 at bats so were are obviously still early on in the process. It does make me question the extension of Cervelli more now. He’s making nine million this season and will make twenty-two million over the next two years. I like Cervelli. His patience at the plate is an asset, he blocks pitches as well as anyone, and he’s one of the best pitch framers in the game. That’s a big thing and I know it’s important to you but 10 million per year is a lot of money to pay for a small market team. He doesn’t have a great arm and his hitting has struggled over the last two seasons. Hopefully he is OK. These concussions are always such a concern. He’s signed anyway so I propose you split the innings a little more between him and Diaz next year. You slowly move Diaz into a more everyday role and you limit Cervelli’s innings, which given his injury problems and his age isn’t a bad idea anyway.

It was an intense week so a day off today is pretty good timing. You get to come back home which is always nice. You actually have a fairly reasonable schedule this week. Tuesday the Tampa Bay Rays come to town for a three game series. The Rays were expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball but they have over-performed with 40-38 record currently residing in third place in the AL East and only one game out of a wildcard spot. They are still a beatable team especially at home. You follow that up by playing a terribly under-performing team, the San Francisco Giants. They are 27-51 which is the second worst record in all of baseball. Obviously losing Madison Bumgarner for most of the season due to a dirt bike injury has hindered them. This could and should be a 4-2 week. That’s what you need to do at home if you want stay in the division hunt, You are six games under .500. At some point, you need to go on a run. .500 teams don’t typically make the playoffs and teams under .500 never do. You are playing better baseball but it’s still not good enough particularly in the bullpen. They have blown games for you all year and that trend doesn’t seem to be ending anytime soon. Keep hitting like you have been, keep getting solid starting pitching, and hopefully that will be enough to keep up until you can address the bullpen at the trade deadline. Enjoy your day off and good luck this week.

Your Bullpen Obsessed Beau,

Brad

P.S. should stand for Polanco stinks. I know I discussed this last week but he’s still bating third almost everyday and he only has a .671 OPS. That’s gross. It looked like maybe he was hurt this week when he didn’t run out a ground ball that he could have potentially beat out. He then went out and made two diving catches so it seemed like nothing was wrong. Why aren’t you running out the grounder then, Gregory? Maybe he’s hurt, maybe he’s just in a slump, or maybe he’s only so good. I don’t have an answer right now. I do know that he’s the one offensive player you can circle right now as hurting you the most. Wake up, Gregory!!

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