#so it could really be any podcast at all but i still havent found anyone whose talking would lull me to sleep quite like that woman's | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

ruinsofxerxes · 3 years

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Tagged ( ˘ ³˘)♥

by @liathgray thaaaaaankk yooooOOooouuu cece!!!!

1. name/nickname: Nikki!! The thing about ur name also being a popular nickname is that you don’t get any other nicknames :’( but tbh you can call me anything and I’ll probably respond

2. gender: just a little lady

3. star sign: Aries!!!! >:((( I found out last week I am Leo rising and I still don’t know what that means but I have an unnecessary pride in it regardless

4. height: 5'2″.......i’ve got u beat cece

5. time: like midnight:30

6. birthday: THE HUNDRETH DAY OF THE YEAR SONNNNNN

7. favorite bands/groups: My favs have always always been Radical Face and Sleeping at Last!!! GOD can they put out one bad song??? I think NOT

8. favorite solo artist: I’ve been a taylor swift freak since 2008 and y’all have to deal with it (also radical face and sleeping at last are both solo artists as well but you KNOW what i mean)

9. song stuck in my head: You are Gold by The National Parks because I referenced it in a tag in one of my last reblogs and I played myself because now it’s stuck in my head

10. last movie: *sweats nervously* oh gosh....I’m not actually much of a movie person ah ahhhhh.. . .. ....OH WAIT. I caught half of The Outsiders on tv yesterday. One of my favorite books, terrible movie

11. last show: oh man....ok i’m a terrible tv show watcher too.....I think it was probably Bob’s Burgers, that’s about the only show I watch that’s actually on tv, I mostly just watch documentaries and listen to podcasts lol I’m currently rewatching fmab for the first time in [redacted] but haven’t watched in a week or two because I want to give it my UNDIVIDED ATTENTION and I am a busy bee

12. when did i create this blog: February of 2012. I had a stomach bug and was bored as hell at home for days lol

13. what do i post: fma and fma and more fma..... . .. . .....I used to post more than just that but hey, the heart wants what the heart wants. Every once in a while I’ll throw in another fandom or a cheeky little text post just to keep everyone on their toes

14. last thing googled: "how to use a shampoo bar” because I got a shampoo bar from Lush and had no idea how to actually use it ashdkljasdljasdl

15. other blogs: basically just this one. I have/had an art blog but literally havent’ used it since like... . . . ......2016 rip

16. do i get asks: *stares into the camera like I’m on the office*

17. why did i choose this url: because back in 2013 I wanted people to think I was a cool popular fma blog so I wanted a canon url and well, I am neither cool nor popular but this url is a part of my identity now

18. following: 325 exactly!!!!

19. followers: I think it’s around the 8900s last I checked but tbh I always forget to lol

20. average hours of sleep: 7-10 babey i love me some sleep

21. lucky number: idk if it’s my lucky number per se but my fav number is definitely 24!!!

22. instruments: I used to be able to play the trumpet, piano, and acoustic guitar but it’s been a long time since I’ve played!!!! :(( Would really love to pick up the guitar again, always my fav instrument!!!

23. what am i wearing: my pjs!!! (because what else is anyone wearing these days?????) i’m wearing a big ol’ baggy t-shirt (with a ton of paint stains on it because life of an artist) and some boxers

24. dream job: ooohhhh!!! I’m actually already doing my dream job! I’m a book illustrator, and that’s what I’ve wanted to be since I was about 5! I would LOVE to be an author someday too!!! I think that’s always been my DREAM dream! I love books idk if that’s obvious

25. dream trip: OOOH MANNNN. AT THIS POINT: ANYWHERE. I LOVE TO TRAVEL AND THIS QUARANTINE HAS GOT ME ITCHING TO GO ANYWHERE. Once it’s safe, y’all never gonna see me again, I’m just gonna be a vagabond traveling the world lol But actually, I would love to go to Japan, Italy, Amsterdam, and travel Route 66!! (not all of these at the same time lol)

26. favorite food: ooohhhhhh ok idk if this counts but I have a major sweet tooth and I’m such a chocoholic, like...anything with chocolate....I love it. But in terms of food-food, I guess probably fish and chips??

27. nationality: i’m from america pls let me out :’(

28. favorite song: oh gosh! Idk if I could choose just one! I’d say Bible Belt by Dry the River has been my favorite for the past few years. But some of my favs over the years have also been Severus and Stone by Radical Face, Get Up by Barcelona, Poison Oak by Bright Eyes, and Blood by The Middle East (if you listen to all of these you will realize the pattern is that I love really sad songs)

29. last book read: man I read like five books last week I don’t even know where to begin lol

30. three fictional universes you’d like to live in: oooohhh definitely Avatar!!! I’d say fma but only if it’s post-promised day lol and probably Spirited Away!!!

#THANK YOU!!!! :D #*sticks my little leggy in the air* i love 2 talk about myself #the life and times of nikki #tagged

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sundrenched-smilez · 7 years

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odd numbers for the lesbian asks! (if it's too many just do every 4th one maybe?)

1. Femme or butch?

for type, im vry easily wooed by butches tbh

as for myself, im genderfluid + heavily lean towards butch-ish for one gender + have been gettin more comf w that term for myself. the 3 genders i switch between, ive described as sharp, dainty and tired, for reason of not really being comf w gender labels aside from nonbinary. sharp/tired r kinda butchish, moreso sharp. like leather jackets, ripped jeans, dress pants/shirts, defs flannels (which r a given for any mood im in tbh) while tired is like mb softer, more focused on flannels + loose tank tops/shirts, shorts + certain skirts, comfy clothes, and the like

ive found that i’m leaning more towards butch lately too, like i’ve been a lot more comfortable with pants and a nice top than i have w dresses or most skirts + im wondering if i was just hanging on to femininity for sake of society, so those r things 2 think abt. i still feel comf in them sometimes, but it’s getting much less often. gender’s weird, i still cant cling to one bc of how pressuring that is so genderfluidity is still smth for me + it shifting to different percentages is okay (im thinking out loud @ this point, but its helping so i hope its interesting to read)

3. Plaid button-ups or leather jackets?

both, but primarily flannels/plaid buttion-ups

5. Describe your aesthetic

aaahh theres a lot of diff aesthetics i could go into, but i have a tag if ur interested in a visual representation? basically, cosy homes, forests, wooden steps and bridges, cats, girls/nbs, water, plants, and old video game stuff, and clouds/skies. i’m sure there’s more in there, but for a good rule of thumb !! as for like dressing aesthetic, i like to look rly gay + attractive and a lil showy? like my shorts r Short and i love crop tops + a lot of my shirts show my bra thru them, + i like showing it when i can, like sports bra + a tank top is a fav look of mine bc i can make it look like my bra is a trim on the shirt + it’s cute. i’ve been wearing dresses less often, but occasionally, i like to rock one. id love a pair of combat boots but i have like size 11/12 feet + most stores dont carry that size + im hesitant to buy some online.

7. Favorite pair of shoes?

its rly hard to find any, i have like walmart converse knockoffs atm + theyre a beige/grey color im not that huge on, it kinda reminds me of sandalwood but depressed

9. Any haircut goals for the future?

there was the undercut!! and i have that down now c: next step is to dye it blue and mb some purple. i wanna bleach it if i’m gonna dye it, but im hesitant to do that bc of how damaging it is, but since my hair’s been cut a cpl time almost all the color is out now, so i think itll b ok if i take good care of it.

11. Describe the worst date you’ve been on

i went to a cafe w someone (i think they were nb but i cant remember, it was like 2 yrs ago about ) and they were impossible to talk to bc they just kept saying “im awkward sorry” @ everything and like any conversations i tried to maintain were all one-shot responses, and like that was a lil frustrating. like i dont hold it against them or anything, more in a sense of i was rly tryin 2 carry it and just couldnt

13. If taken, talk about your girlfriend/wife!

whooh i wish i was taken, i need affection + to b cute w someone

15. Describe your dream wedding

hmmmm i havent thought much about it !! i know when i was younger i wanted to wear a black wedding dress but now im thinkin mb a suit that switches to dress @ the bottom?? that could b cool. I’d be happy w anything tbh, if im getting married, i’d just b happy to be w my wife/spouse. mb somewhere in a forest or on a boat would b cool, defs lots of good food and colorful flowers. I’d like a lot of color, most weddings ive been to are just b/w and bland for my taste (they’ve also all been straight tho so theres that.) it’s kind of wild to think that i might b married someday, but it’d b rly nice. i just haven’t thought much abt the planning of one. it’d b rly gay tho, probs give out tiny gay flags at each seat, and the cake could b lesbian flag colors. im rly drawing a blank on this, but i know id want all my friends around the country + world to be there.

17. If you could live anywhere in the world, where would you live?

i definitely want to live in a port town at some point !! idk where i’d like to settle down, ideally somewhere that doesnt get much hotter than 90 degrees + has lots of parks + is big enough for some events, like pride stuff, little festivals, a farmer’s market, and places to do things, such as a movie theater, bowling alley, mb an aquarium, if not one in a nearby town. hiking trails r also good.

19. Favorite lesbian novel/story?

on a sunbeam!!! its a huge inspiration for me, and i love it so much. it always puts me in such a good mindset when i read it, and the artist is my age, so it makes me feel like I can also accomplish great things if i rly put my heart into it!! which is such a good feeling, and it has great representation + characters that i love, and its rly gay, and in space and theres ships shaped like fish + its gorgeous : D i could go on for hrs abt it + how important it is to me. theres an nb character too, and like the aspect of found families is one that rly hits home and it helped me get thru a rough time of my life + better accept myself as queer/gay.

21. Favorite lesbian musician?

adult mom (tho i think they’re bi but still gay), or hayley kiyoko

23. Ever been assumed to be nothing more than a gal pal?

i think so, but i can’t place when, it’s been a bit.

25. Be positive! What do you like most about being a lesbian?

talking abt being gay w other girls/nbs is lovely and cathartic, i never got to growing up bc i lived in a homophobic town + i was like dealing heavily with internalized homophobia and body/gender dysphoria so i was ace for a bit. talking more abt like sexual attraction + aesthetic attraction is new to me, and that’s been a process to get to, but it’s nice that I can now do so w/o being belittled or barraged by insult. i also just love the thought of being w someone, and daydreaming abt when that happens is really nice. also,, girls + nbs r a blessing and brighten my day and im so glad im attracted 2 them

27. Turn ons?

absolutely communication, that’s a need. i had a bad experience w someone bc she wasn’t communicative at all, and failed to tell me that we weren’t dating despite us going on several dates + kissing??? like i wont go too into it, but hatchi matchi it was a mess. so yeah, communication, affection, and like reassurance that they actually want to be with me, and that my presence is wanted and enjoyed. I got a lot of “i dont care”s for answers last sort-of relationship, and that was rly discouraging. another turn on is for them to initiate talking and things, like holding hands or planning to hang out + such. consent is another big one.

29. Do you usually ask other women out or do you wait for them to ask you?

i usually tend to ask them out, but im still dealing w internalized junk, so its difficult. i also havent any situations in which they liked me back, which is frustrating. like i got lead on earlier summer for abt a month until i asked what we were doing + didnt rly get an answer, and it was this whole mess. i generally try to make the first move tho, bc i know firsthand how difficult it is, but that being said, it’s still hard for me to know for sure if theyre interested + i dont wanna make things uncomf w them, so i’ll wait until i think there might b attraction. that being said, once that’s all out of the way, i like to consider myself a good flirt when im trying.

31. Talk about your interests or hobbies!

i have lots of interests!! im obsessed w steven universe, its my fav show (and if u ever have time, we should totally watch it together sometime, i rly think you’d love it, it’s super gay + heartwarming.) i really love playing music and learning new songs, which im rly great at memorizing. talking to friends + gettin 2 know them better is always nice and fun. i like to draw new things + see the different ways ppl draw, so seeing art on here is always fun for me. i’m also rly into polygon videos (it’s a youtube channel, not like videos abt polygon haha) and this podcast called the adventure zone. season one just ended, so i might start listening to another one called friends at the table. i rly wanna start a podcast w someone, but can never find anyone to start it with. idk what I’d talk abt but if i could find a partner for it, i think it’d be a lot of fun. mb smth abt games or books/queer representation in media. doing a dnd podcast would also b rly fun, but a lot of work + editing so mb later down the road !! im blanking on other interests atm, but animations and cartoons r lovely and i aim to make something in that field one day, if not just a comic.

my hobbies r mostlyyyy drawing, dnd things now every thursday, hanging w my friends, playing video games, sometimes writing (i rly wanna start a comic, and im tryin to get my butt into gear on it), goin to parks, listening to music, and goin 2 events w roe + cesar, two of my friends. sometimes ill play music!! i need to get more than the keyboard i’m lending, but i love performing. ill also watch leg birds on youtube, theyre a lesbian couple that plays gams + theyre rly sweet.

33. Do you love easily or does it take time for you to warm up to someone?

its easy for me to love friends, doesnt usu take me more than a few months of knowing them if were talking a lot. as for falling in love, that takes me a lot longer. ive never rly been in love w someone. i thought i was once, but rly it was just my first gay experience w someone and i wanted it to be perfect so i projected a lot of things + made it better than it seemed to myself for the duration of it, which wasn’t healthy, so i wanna avoid doing that again, + take things slower next time. or at least for what they are.

35. Ever fallen for a straight girl?

a few times, they were just crushes tho, so it wasnt too too bad

37. Favorite comfort food?

hot cocoa or tea. as for food food, i dont think i have one. mb french toast or cinnamon rolls.

39. Vegetarian? Vegan? None of the above?

i used to be a vegetarian!! for like a yr, but it was difficult for me to eat and feel full, and i was pretty underweight, so i stopped.

41. Early-riser or night-owl?

both, i tend to stay up, but getting up early can be nice if i dont have to do anything. like just gently waking + making some tea and a nice breakfast + sittin around for a bit.

43. What is your Myers-Briggs type?

enfp-a

45. At what age did you know you were a lesbian?

i think like 16-17? it took me a bit to get words for identity, like lesbian/nonbinary and the like, but i always knew, like id call myself an individual as opposed to gendered terms that i was referred to, and always felt rly yucky w deadname + the wrong pronouns

47. Are you crushing on anyone at the moment (celebrity or otherwise)?

ive got one crush atm !! and another person who seems nice, but i wanna hang out w before like thinking abt a crush (im poly, which perhaps goes w/o saying, but i always like to state it when talking abt these things, jic )

49. Talk about your dreams/aspirations for the future

i’d like a partner or two, to get some bongos- i got to play some a couple weeks ago, and it was the most fun i’ve had playing anything!! having smth with an instant response that i could make up rhythms with was really rewarding and so much fun. i know i want a cat at some point, to go on cute dates + cuddle and kiss a lot w someone, to visit my friends in other places, dye my hair, get a better job, to travel a bit, make a comic, go to college for animation and storyboarding, mb go to camp at some point, and I’d like to make some more friends here, i’m already making some, which i’m super happy about, but it’s always nice meeting new ppl

thank u for asking!! this was relaxing + fun, and a lot of the topics were cathartic to talk about, and i needed it. so thanks for listening too kinda

also im queen of commas, i’ve discovered while typing this

#msg in a bottle #cass charts #idk what i want my ask tag to be

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writingguide003-blog · 5 years

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#MeToo revelations and loud, angry men: the feminism flashpoint of Sydney writers festival

New Post has been published on https://writingguideto.com/must-see/metoo-revelations-and-loud-angry-men-the-feminism-flashpoint-of-sydney-writers-festival/

#MeToo revelations and loud, angry men: the feminism flashpoint of Sydney writers festival

For anyone who thought the movement had lost momentum, the last few days have proved otherwise

Hours before the cornerstone Sydney writers festival panel about the #MeToo movement on Saturday night, the Pulitzer-prize winning author Junot Diaz with events still booked in Sydney and in Melbourne was on a plane out of Australia.

The day before, another festival guest, writer Zinzi Clemmons, had spoken from the audience during the Q&A of one of Diazs panels, questioning the timing of his recent New Yorker essay and asking the writer to reckon with his own alleged history of harm.

She then shared her story on Twitter, claiming he had cornered and forcibly kissed her when she was 26.

Clemmons was joined on Twitter by other women including another festival speaker Carmon Maria Machado who made their own accusations of his alleged misconduct. Diaz withdrew from his remaining appearances, and told the New York Times (without referring to the allegations specifically): I take responsibility for my past.

As the story unfolded on Twitter, the green rooms no journalists policy was enforced with more vigour. Understandable. For anyone who thought the #MeToo movement had lost momentum, the last few days proved otherwise.

Lets recap, moderator and former Crikey editor Sophie Black told the audience, before a panel that would be interjected by a protester, a whistle-blower, and one of Australias best known feminists. Weve got a lot to talk about.

On Friday, for instance, the Nobel prize for literature was cancelled amid a sexual assault scandal. The day before that, a Washington Post investigation told of 27 more women who had allegations of sexual harassment against talk show host Charlie Rose.

One of the journalists behind that investigation, Irin Carmon, was on the panel, along with Now Australias spearhead and spokesperson Tracey Spicer and the New York Times Jenna Wortham. Carmon had been working on the Rose story since 2010, but it was only when the #MeToo movement gathered steam that she was able to get it off the ground.

Tracey Spicer, Irin Carmon, Jenna Wortham and Sophie Black during a panel discussion. Photograph: Jamie Williams

[In 2010] the women werent ready to speak out, and I had to move on, she explained. But when people started to tell their own stories on their own terms, I thought, Maybe its time to go back to the story, maybe they are now feeling its safe enough.

The movement has made it easier, she said, but its still not easy.

Carmon talked about the burden of proof needed to publish a story alleging sexual crimes, and the emotional exhaustion it took for a victim to speak out. The Rose story, she said, had taken over her life. This is not just happening willy-nilly; people are not just doing it for fun. Having been up close in the machine and the aftermath, it is not fun. It is not glamorous just because a few people went to the Oscars.

Later, she said: I wish people knew that what reporters publish is just the tip of the iceberg of what we know, because it has to meet such a high standard. One of Harvey Weinsteins accusers, for instance, had a recording of her harassment and still wasnt believed … So many people dont have that kind of evidence.

Spicer agreed. Since her public call-out for #MeToo stories on Twitter in October, she said 1600 people had contacted her with allegations about 100 different Australian men.

Ive got beyond a dozen accusations against many of the alleged offenders [who we havent yet exposed], she said. And even with that, you have to almost act like youre part of the police force. Is there any clothing with DNA on it? Are there any diaries? Did you tell anyone at the time, a family member or a friend? Its incredibly difficult in this country.

So whenever you read these stories or see them on television, you know that they have been robustly researched.

Australias restrictive defamation laws work against the whistle-blowers, as do varied pressures inside newsrooms, which have been hampering investigations at home. Spicer has spent the past six months connecting the strongest of the stories with news outlets around the country but her efforts, she revealed, havent always been welcome.

This is a conversation thats not going to be very popular in this room, but its something Ive been wanting to say publicly for a long time. When we started doing these stories in this country … we had the support of Fairfax and the ABC, and they were tremendous, she said.

But recently, in the last two months, Ive seen mainstream what we would call old media organisations starting to pull away from some of these stories … Not only is it costly, not only is it difficult because of defamation, but its getting a little bit too close to our executives. And that is a true story.

For that reason, she has been taking stories to a broader array of outlets, including Guardian Australia, the Financial Review and News Corp. If you want to keep reading and hearing about these stories, contact the media outlets in Australia and tell them, she said.

At least one of the people who had told their story to Spicer was in the room; she found her way to a microphone during the audience Q&A. I came to Tracey with my story last year and she followed up with me. She said, Youre not the only victim of this man but we just cant get the story up …

You shouldnt have to be sitting on a stage, putting out a call, asking audience members to give you the resources to bring these man to justice, she continued. I have seen you done so much more than what your job description has asked you, and honestly, the responsibility lies with the media organisations.

Following the Diaz allegations, the panel also discussed so-called trial by Twitter: women making allegations against men on social media or blogs, sidestepping journalism and the justice system.

I dont agree with people naming people on social media, Spicer said, but I understand why people are [doing it]. They feel a frustration with the gatekeepers.

It was even more difficult for women who didnt fit the mould of the victims whose stories have so far been prioritised: white, privileged, straight and famous women. I dont think were dealing or talking about it at all the way we should be, in terms of non-white, hetero normative, straight [victims], said Wortham, who co-hosts the Still Processing podcast on race and pop culture.

Wortham also spoke about the toxicity of open secrets, referencing the shitty media men list which privately circulated New York late last year before it was exposed.

The shared document named men whose allegedly inappropriate and harmful behaviour had, in some cases, been known by many.

I had gone to drinks with those people, I had been alone with them, Wortham said. I was a young 25-year-old who didnt know any better, and Id been in situations that could have potentially been very difficult. And because they were open secrets, the onus was on me to know that that was a dangerous situation.

But she hadnt been tapped into the whisper network. Either I wasnt successful enough or I wasnt interacting with the people who were privileged enough to have that information and pass it along to me. I wasnt in the right place on the hierarchy of knowledge …

Weve developed these coping mechanisms to deal with these societal problems that are really insufficient, and put the [onus] on us.

The panels penultimate moment was a welcome surprise: notable Australian feminist and writer Eva Cox stood at a microphone with a question for the panellists.

Its not How do we stop that man from doing that to us?, but How do we stop men feeling like theyre entitled to?, she said.

We have to start looking at what we are doing to little boys to make them feel entitled. We need to sit down and start addressing the social problem, because we are still the second sex. And unfortunately, a lot of what were doing to fight this … is using a male-driven system to try to screw a male-driven system. It doesnt work.

As the applause died down in the audience, a lone voice could be heard from the front: a man who had been barred from the microphone during the Q&A was standing in front of the stage and screaming aggressively at the strong, accomplished women who sat in front of him.

HOW MANY INNOCENT MEN WILL GET TAKEN DOWN? he yelled, as he was escorted out. GEOFFREY RUSH IS AN AUSTRALIAN ICON!

The four panellists had spent the last 60 minutes illustrating why this movement wasnt going away. It took just one man, in one second, to succinctly prove their point.

An earlier version of this article implied journalists were removed from the green room following the Junot Diaz allegations. According to the festival, the green room was intended as a journalist-free space

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/us

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theliberaltony · 5 years

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via FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): For the last several months, former President Barack Obama has been busy giving advice to 2020 Democratic contenders. He hasn’t endorsed anyone (and may never do so), but who do we think is best positioned to be the next “Obama candidate”? And, more importantly, do we think what worked for Obama in 2008 would work for a 2020 candidate?

julia_azari (Julia Azari, political science professor at Marquette University and FiveThirtyEight contributor): Obama ran in 2008 as (kind of) an outsider but not a populist. But the current crop of candidates isn’t very well-positioned to make outsider claims, as the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew pointed out. Instead, they’re better poised to talk about economic populism.

So that’s a big difference that immediately jumped out to me.

sarahf: Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are both pushing populist economic policies this cycle. But I’d argue that neither is really in the mold of Obama.

It’s also not clear to me, given that the economy is pretty good right now, how effective a rallying cry it’ll be for 2020. I think there’s an opening for someone like Cory Booker, who’s running on a message of love (which is reminiscent of Obama’s message of hope and change in 2008).

perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): I tend to think Beto O’Rourke (if he decides to run) and Booker will end up running Obama-like campaigns, appealing to voters with personas as much as their policy agendas. I would put Kamala Harris in this group as well.

Granted, Booker is an insider, not an outsider, but I don’t know how much of an outsider Obama really was — he was a sitting senator in 2008. I do think Booker and Obama share broad themes of trying to unite the country.

O’Rourke also seems to have some of that Obama-like charisma — people are begging him to run for president, but I suspect they don’t know a lot about his record.

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): Not to interrupt but are we … underestimating how much Obama was about personality rather than policy in 2008? Not that he isn’t a substantive guy. But I’m old enough to remember the 2008 primaries. And there were not a hell of a lot of rigorous debates over policy.

julia_azari: That’s fair, Nate. But it’s complicated. Obama’s bid, especially against Hillary Clinton, was about personality. Not a ton of policy difference there.

But his presidency was a lot of reacting to big issues and problems — the economy, of course, but also the Arab Spring. And police violence against unarmed African-Americans became a major national issue.

So when we ask about Obama’s legacy, are we asking about his 2008 run or his presidency?

sarahf: That’s a good point, Julia. If we look at Obama’s presidency, I’d argue that parts of the Democratic Party don’t want someone who replicates Obama’s more consensus-based approach. Many, especially on the Left, wish he’d gone farther on issues, which is why we’re debating “Medicare-for-all” right now and not, say, how to save the Affordable Care Act.

perry: I think it’s clear that Sanders and Warren are not running in the Obama mold.

They can’t say that — because Obama is so popular among Democrats, and Sanders did not do well in 2016 with black voters, who both love Obama and are an important constituency in the party. But privately, the Sanders supporters I talk to think Obama was a fine but underwhelming president.

natesilver: Publicly, there are a VERY few vocal Bernie supporters who think Obama was a bad president. And it’s probably a minority of Sanders supporters who think that, but it’s still out there.

julia_azari: So I was thinking about this when I read Nate’s piece about the “five corners” of the Democratic primary. The piece is right that Obama won with black voters, Latino voters and young voters — and that the Left didn’t really have a candidate in 2008. But I am also not sure the Left was even a thing in 2008.

It really took Warren, Sanders and the Occupy movement, along with slow economic recovery and some activism around issues of racial marginalization (like Black Lives Matter), to shape the Left as we know it.

perry: Also, Dan Pfeiffer, a former Obama adviser, has been encouraging Beto O’Rourke to get into the race. David Axelrod, another former Obama advisers, has been praising Pete Buttigieg, who has also gotten praise from Obama himself. (How many mayors are getting shout-outs from Obama?) So that gives you some sense of how people who were deeply involved in Obama’s 2008 campaign see the 2020 race.

natesilver: Yeah, the Obama people themselves are quite pro-Beto. Especially the Obama people who didn’t move on to work for the Hillary Clinton campaign in some capacity.

perry: Obama got some credit from liberal activists in 2008 for being opposed to the Iraq War, but I don’t think the Left was as organized then.

And it didn’t have obvious champions who were strong candidates. Now, the Left has Warren, Sanders and other candidates who are taking fairly liberal positions (like Harris).

julia_azari: I’d call Beto and Buttigieg the closest we have to “outsiders” in the race. Well, them and Tulsi Gabbard.

natesilver: Gabbard and Obama both have the Hawaii thing going on. Is she the new Obama?

perry: I agree with the idea that Beto is something of an outsider. He was in Congress, but I feel like he barely registered there. I literally don’t think I have ever covered him doing anything important on Capitol Hill.

sarahf: It’s interesting that no one is connecting Obama and Amy Klobuchar. Is it because she’s too much of a Washington insider?

natesilver: Both Klobuchar and Obama are very Midwestern, I say as someone from the Midwest.

perry: She is not particularly charismatic or inspiring. Yes, we have a FiveThirtyEight measurement for that :)

julia_azari: Is being charismatic an important part of Obama’s legacy?

natesilver: With Klobuchar, the problem is that she goes too far in the direction of pragmatism, whereas Obama tried (and often succeeded) to have it both ways in terms of projecting both pragmatism and idealism.

perry: Agree.

Obama was maybe center-left on policy, but his message was never really, “We can’t do this” — which is what Klobuchar keeps saying about a lot of big Democratic initiatives. She is not exactly hope and change. She is pragmatism. She even uses the phrase “pragmatic progressive” to describe herself.

julia_azari: A great example of this is the comment she made at a CNN townhall this week about the idea of free college for everyone. After saying she was against it, Klobuchar said: “If I was a magic genie and could give that to everyone and we could afford it, I would.” That was on every podcast I listened to this morning.

Another thing I’ve been thinking about that I haven’t seen in any of the candidates is that Obama had this very strong sense of history when he talked, particularly about race. He talked a fair amount about founding ideals. Because the current moment feels so pressing and Trump gives Democratic hopefuls such an obvious foil, I don’t have the sense that this is happening as much this time around.

natesilver: 2007-08 was fairly pressing too, though. With the financial crisis unfolding.

perry: I think Warren and Sanders are trying to tell stories and narratives, but about the economy. I don’t know that Booker or Harris can tell the story about race in America through the lens of being a black person in a compelling way, because Obama has done that.

I think we are agreeing that being an Obama-like candidate is not necessarily linked to being black. I agree with that to some extent — maybe 85 percent — but I have also watched voters tell Booker, “I like you, you sound like Obama.” And that is certainly related to Booker being black.

natesilver: And that’s one area — the sense of history and how it affected him personally –on which Beto, in particular, falls flat relative to Obama. He’s coming from a fairly privileged upbringing, so his personal “journey” isn’t likely to be all that compelling.

julia_azari: Another question I have is whether those stories will be more important in a crowded field — where differentiation is at a premium — or less important as who the hell can remember anything about anyone?

perry: The narrative that Warren and Sanders are telling is distinct. The other candidates are saying that what is wrong in the U.S. is largely about Trump, but those two are setting themselves apart by saying the villain is the wealthy or the 1 percent. That will matter to voters on the Left.

But Harris, as she was about to start her formal campaign, spoke extensively about her mother. I wonder if that resonated much with voters, with so much else going on in the news. I doubt it.

natesilver: Maybe we’re not talking enough about Booker? His period as mayor of Newark feels a lot like Obama’s time as a community organizer, in terms of how he’s trying to shape his narrative.

One of the things that was relatively distinctive about Obama was that he embraced his urbanness, when presidents typically come from more rural or suburban areas.

Booker has been trying to do the same thing.

perry: I think Booker is obviously in the Obama mold. You could even argue that Obama was in the Booker mold. (Booker was famous first, to some extent.)

julia_azari: But it seems to me like the Booker-Obama comparison is vulnerable to ham-handed comparisons about them both being younger black men.

natesilver: Yeah — if people are looking at race, are they going to think that the Booker-Obama comparison is too on the nose? Like, you want to be Obama-ish or Obama-adjacent, but not too much like Obama.

julia_azari: I also wonder what it means for white men like O’Rourke or Buttigieg to be positioned as the inheritors of the Obama legacy. That seems to me to be a sign of a conscious effort to craft an Obama legacy that’s not about race or identity. (Though Buttigieg is gay, and I don’t want to downplay the significance of that.)

sarahf: So what would it mean then if Joe Biden were to enter the field? He was Obama’s vice president. Does proximity to Obama matter when it comes to being the “Obama candidate”?

perry: I don’t know. I tend to think that Biden’s waiting to make a decision about running is connected to the fact that he will likely not be a big favorite if he gets into the race. I think he assumes (like I do) that lots of people who voted for Obama aren’t going to vote for him.

natesilver: Also, the fact that Obama is meeting with all 73 other Democratic candidates seems like it’s not great news for Biden.

julia_azari: If Biden were to enter the race, it would focus questions on Obama’s legacy, because that would have to be part of Biden’s political story. It would definitely open him up for attack from the other candidates and make the idea of an “Obama candidate” more contested.

perry: I tend to think liberal Democrats in particular will find plenty of ways to attack Biden that will have nothing to do with Obama. Obama was young, something of an outsider and non-white, but Biden is none of those things. It will be easy for other candidates to suggest that they, not Biden, are the “Obama candidate” for 2020.

And I think the answer is intuitive when the question is: Who is more like the “Obama candidate,” Biden or Harris? (Harris.)

sarahf: But how much does it matter if a candidate is like Obama if the goal is to just select someone who can beat Trump?

perry: That’s a good question, but it may overlook how many different groups of people Obama won over. Obama managed to do somewhat well among white, non-college voters in the Midwest and get high turnout among African-Americans.

Is there anyone in this field who can do that?

natesilver: I mean …. maayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyybe Booker? I’m much more bullish on Harris’s chances overall, but Booker has a reputation as being a little bit better as a retail politician.

julia_azari: The question also matters as to Obama’s eventual legacy, which is something that will be of importance to a lot of people — some of whom aren’t even professional presidential scholars!

perry: In some ways, the question of who will be the next Obama is quite relevant to electability considerations.

sarahf: COALITION BUILDING TIME

julia_azari: Yeah, the ability to build a coalition like Obama is the more pressing concern.

And in 2008, Obama did two things in terms of the electoral map that I think are notable: (1) He had a strong showing in the Midwest (he won Wisconsin by 14 percentage points and (2) he made a dent in some Republican areas (North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana).

perry: A 2020 version of Obama’s 2008 victory might be: getting big turnout among Asian, black and Latino voters, flipping Arizona and Georgia blue, nearly winning Texas, and carrying Wisconsin and Michigan, because those states are swingy.

julia_azari: And that’s a continuation, in some ways, of a kind of ad hoc Electoral College strategy, rather than a fundamental change.

sarahf: Or an example of successful coalition-building as you all mentioned. Any last thoughts?

julia_azari: I just want to reiterate that this is an important question about the direction of one of the two major parties and about the legacy of the first African-American president.

(And since I’m writing about it, not at all self-serving!)

natesilver: I do think electability was a pretty big part of the Obama brand in 2008. There was a lot of subtle and not-so-subtle messaging to suggest that he could expand the map more than Hillary Clinton could.

And remember, Obama was very popular in 2008, at least at the start of the campaign, even among independents and some moderate Republicans.

perry: I kind of think the search for the next Obama will end up like the search for the next Bill Clinton (a Southern centrist) that happened from, say, 2001 to 2007 (John Edwards, Mark Warner, etc.). The next great Democratic candidate will be his or her own thing — a person who builds a multiracial coalition (because that’s who the Democrats are), but in a way that is distinct from what Obama did. O’Rourke, Harris and Klobuchar are all distinct from Obama — Warren and Sanders are even more so.

natesilver: It’s hard to win the Democratic primary — or to win the general election as a Democrat — without building a multiracial coalition. Which is why I wonder if Obama isn’t the new normal.

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