#stereanalysis

[stereax]

Waivers: The Basics

Having noticed that many of my mutuals, as well as hockeyblr at large, are unsure of what exactly the NHL's waiver system means and how it works, I've endeavored to write up a little bit of a primer on waivers to make it easier to understand. Meet me under the cut to learn more!

What are waivers?

Put most simply, waivers are a process that occurs when a team says to a player, "We don't want you in the NHL anymore, we're sending you to the AHL". Because of the CBA's (Collective Bargaining Agreement) Article 13, before they can do this, they have to put the player on the waiver wire, which is essentially a 24-hour-long period where any other team that wants that player to play for them in the NHL can claim them. The purpose of the waiver wire is to ensure that teams don't unfairly stash NHL-caliber players in the AHL, thereby paying them lesser salaries (this is the most important part - AHL salaries are generally about a tenth of NHL salaries) and not allowing them to play NHL games. Players that may not be getting a fair shot on one team can move to another, where they can be used more effectively - for instance, Eeli Tolvanen was waived by Nashville, picked up by Seattle, and now plays a key role on Seattle's third line. In fact, he scored Seattle's first-ever goal in the playoffs!

What happens once a player is put on the waiver wire?

If another team claims the player, they are claimed on waivers and are transferred to the other team. Notably, the other team must have the appropriate cap and roster space necessary to claim the player. An example here is Kasperi Kapanen, who was placed on waivers by Pittsburgh and was claimed by St Louis. His cap hit of $3.2m may have been prohibitive for other teams who could have wanted to claim him.

If multiple teams try to claim the player, the player goes to the team that submitted a claim which is the worst in the standings - if it's before November 1st of a new season year, it goes to the team that finished worst in the standings the year before, but if it's after November 1st, it goes to the team that is currently worst in the standings. Take Lassi Thomson, who was placed on waivers by Ottawa and claimed by Anaheim. If, for example, Toronto also submitted a claim, they would not have been awarded Thomson, as Anaheim has the worse standing.

If no other team claims the player, they clear waivers. When they do so, they can be reassigned to the NHL team's affiliate AHL team. Notably, not everyone who clears waivers is immediately reassigned - a player who clears waivers can stay with the NHL team instead (for example, if another player just got injured). They can be sent down to the AHL at a later time - they do not have to go through the waivers process again if they have played less than 10 NHL games (cumulative) or been on the roster for less than 30 days (cumulative) from the last time they cleared waivers. This can be used to a savvy GM's advantage to avoid putting players on the waiver wire.

Why is everyone getting waived right now?

At the beginning of the preseason, every player with an NHL contract, whether it be one-way (NHL only) or two-way (NHL and AHL), is invited to that team's training camp. This places them on the NHL preseason roster for that team. As training camp goes on and players get cut, they then must pass through waivers to go to the AHL. Unless, of course, they're waiver exempt.

What is waiver exemption and why is it important?

So you might already have noticed an issue with the waiver system - it's terrible for younger players. If solely the waiver rules we've discussed above existed, every player being sent to the AHL would have to go through waivers. This would include prospects who are signed to an NHL ELC (entry-level contract) but didn't make the cut for the season. Obviously, this is bad for teams - imagine drafting players who you know will be good for you in 2 or 3 years and then losing them all to the waiver wire. This is why waiver exemption exists.

Waiver exemption, to keep it simple, is a protection that certain players have that means they do not have to go through the waivers process to be reassigned to the AHL. The specific details of waiver exemption are a little complicated - let's take a look at the table to make it make more sense.

This table is either/or and is defined by the age when their NHL ELC was signed. A skater who signed their ELC as an 18-year-old is waiver exempt for either 5 years or 160 games played (including playoff games) at the NHL level. A skater who signed at 21 is exempt for either 3 years or 80 NHL games. Goalies have different requirements than skaters because they generally take longer to develop and don't play as many games.

There is a fairly common misconception that all players on their ELCs are automatically waiver exempt. This is false. The second a player hits the amount of games played for their age, they are immediately no longer waiver exempt. Usually, this doesn't occur until after the ELC is over, as most ELC players deal with injuries and healthy scratches, as well as not generally being given the reins to play on the NHL roster for the entire season. One notable example that disproves the "ELC means waiver exempt" conception is Dawson Mercer from New Jersey. Mercer signed his ELC as a 19-year-old in December of 2020. He has played all 82 games in the past 2 seasons (2021-22 & 2022-23) plus 12 playoff games for a total of 176 NHL games played. Under the games requirements, he is now no longer exempt from waivers, despite having one whole year left on his ELC.

For the 25+ category, upon playing a single NHL game, the player is waiver exempt for that entire season and that entire season only. Andrei Kuzmenko from Vancouver is a good example of that - last season, he signed his one-year ELC with Vancouver as a 27-year-old and could have been sent to the AHL at any time without going through waivers. (He was not, needless to say.)

There is one very important exception to the table: if an 18- or 19-year-old player plays 11 or more games with an NHL team in a single season, their waiver exemption is automatically cropped. For that season, and the next two, the player is waiver exempt, but after that, they are no longer exempt. This extends to the next three if the player in question is a goalie and not a skater. (To make it easier to understand, it's as if they jumped into the 20-year-old category.) However, 18- and 19-year-old prospects generally only play 9 games maximum at the NHL level in order to allow for the entry-level slide, allowing the contract to "slide" forward a year, letting teams keep the player on the ELC for an extra year and thus save money.

Are there any other ways a player can play in the AHL without going through waivers or being waiver exempt?

Yes, actually! There are two main exceptions - they're for conditioning loans.

First, what is a conditioning loan? A conditioning loan is a short-term reassignment to the AHL. There are two types of conditioning loans: the standard conditioning loan and the LTIR conditioning loan.

A standard conditioning loan, specified under the CBA 13.8, occurs when a player agrees to head down to the AHL for a few games to "wipe off the dust" on their game, so to speak. They're often used by players who have ended up as perennial healthy scratches on their NHL teams, so that they're able to jump in if there's an injury or other issue. Standard conditioning loans can last up to 14 days. One example of a standard conditioning loan is Shane Wright, who was sent to the AHL by Seattle very early in the season for conditioning, partially to bypass the requirement that the NHL has with the major junior CHL that would have required him to go back to the CHL were he officially reassigned from Seattle. Another is Nathan Beaulieu, who was sent to the AHL by Anaheim in January for a four-game stint.

An LTIR conditioning loan, specified under the CBA 13.9, occurs when a player coming off of LTIR agrees to head down to the AHL for a few games to "wipe off the dust" on their game, so to speak. These loans can only last 6 days or 3 games, whichever comes later, and the idea is to be able to figure out whether a player is able to return to form or requires more time to heal properly. For example, Travis Dermott was sent to the AHL by Vancouver in December to evaluate whether he was back to form after a concussion sustained in the preseason. He played one game in the AHL, then drew back into Vancouver's lineup for eleven games before going back on IR for the rest of the season due to the concussion repercussions. Notably, a team can only use one LTIR conditioning loan for each time a player is on LTIR.

What is emergency recall and why does it make a player waiver exempt?

Emergency recall occurs when a player on a team's NHL lineup is injured and the team can no longer ice a full squad because of it. (As a reminder, each team must carry 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and 2 goalies. Usually, teams keep an extra forward and defenseman around as a healthy scratch in case of injuries, but some teams are pressed against the cap and cannot carry extra players.) In this case, they can call an AHL player (or multiple, at times) up on an "emergency" basis to fill in during the time that the NHL player is out. Once the NHL player is healthy again, the AHL player can either be transferred to a regular recall or gets sent down to their AHL team again. One example here is Akira Schmid, who was bouncing back and forth between Utica and New Jersey on emergency recalls every few weeks because Mackenzie Blackwood, one of New Jersey's two goaltenders, was constantly getting hurt.

It makes sense, then, why emergency recall would grant a player temporary waiver exemption status - it would be awful to have to recall a player from the AHL, have them in the NHL for a little bit, and then have to send them through waivers and get claimed when your roster player is healthy. However, if an emergency recall player plays in at least 10 NHL games, he loses his waiver exempt status under emergency recall (other forms of waiver exemption still apply).

What are unconditional waivers?

Unconditional waivers are different from regular waivers in what they do. Passing through unconditional waivers does not send you to the AHL. Instead, they are used by teams that want to buy out or terminate players' contracts, completely giving up their rights to the players. Players placed on unconditional waivers are almost never claimed because of this - only two players have ever been claimed off unconditional waivers.

Okay, hold on - what's the difference between a buyout and a termination?

A termination occurs when a player's contract is terminated. The player severs all ties to a team and does not continue to be paid by the team. The team does not incur any cap penalties from termination. There are two main types of termination.

The first type of termination is mutually-agreed-upon termination. In the case of Filip Zadina, who was recently terminated by Detroit, he made it clear that he would refuse to report to the AHL after being sent down on regular waivers. The team and Zadina then proceeded to terminate the contract so that Zadina would be free to negotiate a contract with another NHL team instead of playing for Detroit's AHL team, and so that Detroit would not incur any cap penalties from buying out Zadina. Another example is Lukas Sedlak, whose contract was terminated by Philadelphia when he made it clear to the team that he wanted to return to Europe to play. Philadelphia put Sedlak on unconditional waivers, terminated the contract, and Sedlak soon returned to his native Czechia to play for Pardubice.

The other, rarer type of termination is for material breach. Material breach termination is exemplified by Alex Galchenyuk, whose contract was terminated by Arizona after they became aware of the intoxicated driving incident involving Galchenyuk. Essentially, material breach is used when players are acting illegally, either against the law of the United States/Canada, or against the terms of their contract. The reason these terminations are so rare is twofold: Not only are hockey players generally going to try to avoid breaking the law, when they do, the player's association is usually going to investigate and file appeals and the like to try to secure their players the highest possible settlement despite the termination (and set a precedent so other teams are not encouraged to terminate contracts for material breach).

On the other hand, a buyout occurs when a player is released by a team, but the player continues to be paid by the team as per their contract. The team incurs cap penalties from buyouts - 1/3 of the contract value if the player is younger than 26 at the time of the buy-out, 2/3 of the value if the player is 26 or order. This penalty is spread across double the years left on the contract.

An aside - this is also where the idea of a "buyout-proof" contract comes in. A buyout-proof contract contains most of the salary being paid in the form of signing bonuses, which are paid in full even if the contract is bought out. (These contracts are also considered "lockout-proof", as, again, the signing bonus must be paid even if there is a lockout and no hockey is being played.) As an example of this, take a look at Auston Matthews's extension:

If the Leafs try to buy this contract out, they'd have to pay Matthews the entirety of the signing bonuses as well as 2/3 of the base salary, making the cap savings incredibly marginal and just not worth it to buy out. Thus, it's buyout-proof.

Is that everything I need to know about waivers?

I think so! If you have any other questions, please drop me a line in my inbox or via DMs - I'll be happy to explain more to you! :D

#stereanalysis #stereducation #hockey primer #waivers primer

[stereax]

Important Info:

- The NHL has agreed to the termination and the NHLPA does not seem to intend to appeal it either. (Read: whatever happened was bad enough and provable enough that they don't want to get involved and lose face.)

- As per GM Kyle Davidson in his press conference, "no players or their families were involved", and to say otherwise is "frankly disgusting". (Read: stop with the Perry fucked Bedsy's mom rumors.)

- Also as per Kyle from Chicago, the incident(s?) in question DID happen at work and were a "personnel matter". (Read: likely had to do with Perry and a Hawks employee.)

- Davidson also said they're trying to "change culture" and "have a culture of accountability". (Read: workplace harassment?)

- What happened was "very disturbing". (Read: possibly Perry was verbally harassing a Hawks employee, or even physically/sexually, but it was bad enough to disturb the GM of the racist team with the history of sexual assault.)

- That being said, "law enforcement is not involved". (Read: likely did not reach the level to warrant criminal prosecution, but bad enough that the NHLPA will not appeal, which is a very thin line to walk.)

Watch the entire presser here.

(Note: Davidson does do a fair bit of weaving around questions and what he seems he truly wants to say, as is expected. But what he DOES say is incredibly interesting.)

#beat reporter stereax #corey perry #kyle davidson #chicago blackhawks #stereanalysis #well. mostly my discord friends talking about it tbh

[stereax]

likes and reblogs highly appreciated here!!! spent a ton of time on this, hope it shows!

(and kudos to the discord crew who put up with me spamming them with pages of this and giving me the thumbs-up about it - love you all!!!)

let's go devils!!!

#new jersey devils #nj devils #devils primer #hockey primer #nhl #devils lb #devs lb #stereanalysis #stereducation

[stereax]

Wait, can fedetov play for the flyers for the remainder of the season and in playoffs?

Yep, he can! He was signed to an NHL ELC a few years back (summer 2022) with the intention of going to the NHL after his KHL season ended. The Russian government, however, arrested him on charges of "evading the draft" and sent him on a wonderful one-year "vacation" to an Arctic Circle Russian Navy post. When he returned from his vacation, he re-signed with his KHL club, CSKA Moscow. The IIHF said that, because Fedotov had an NHL ELC, the KHL contract was illegal. The KHL basically flipped the IIHF off and played Fedotov anyway despite being fined for it.

At this point, it seemed that Fedotov would be stuck in Russia forever. Thus, the NHL, from what I understand, quietly suspended Fedotov's contract, as Fedotov was categorically unable to play for the Flyers. What this essentially did was create a sort of "ELC slide" proxy - if Fedotov were to ever come to play in the NHL, the contract would be unsuspended then and he could play. This also allowed the Flyers to retain his rights. Clubs who draft Russian players technically have unexpiring rights to sign them to their ELC, a by-rule in place because the NHL and KHL do not have an official transfer agreement. Clearly, the Flyers should not be penalized (by losing Fedotov's rights) for signing a player who was trapped in Russia. Plus, as the contract was suspended, the Flyers would not have to pay it. Allowing them not to pay makes sense, given they do not control the player at any level (NHL, AHL, ECHL) and did not loan him themselves.

So now that Fedotov was basically hostage-released to Philly (CSKA "abruptly terminated" his contract and Fedotov hauled ass to Pennsylvania), the NHL has quietly lifted their quiet suspension of his contract. As he was a contracted player to the Flyers at the time of the trade deadline, albeit suspended, he is eligible to play in the playoffs. By virtue of having an NHL contract with the Flyers, he can also play out the rest of the season with them.

Note - there are cases, like Ottawa with Scott Gomez, where a free agent is signed after the trade deadline and is thus ineligible for the playoffs but can still play in the regular season. This does not apply to Fedotov, as he was signed far before the trade deadline. It's only that his contract came into effect afterwards because he was able to come to the United States.

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #ivan fedorov #philadelphia flyers

[stereax]

is there a reason why Carolina is losing all their affiliates???

Other than being assholes to Erik Haula?

Okay, but in all seriousness, there's a short answer and a long one.

The short answer is two words long: Pyotr Kochetkov.

The long answer? Meet me under the cut.

Alright, hi there. So to answer this question fully, we need to talk about the AHL in depth. The AHL, or American Hockey League, is the second-highest league of North American pro hockey, under the NHL. Most people tend to believe it's just "where prospects play before they hit the NHL". This is... only a part of the story.

There are 32 teams in the AHL to match 32 NHL teams. The idea there is that every NHL team would have an AHL affiliate - the most recent expansion, for example, the Coachella Valley Firebirds, is the AHL affiliate for the newest NHL team, the Seattle Kraken. Many of these teams are owned by the same group as owns the NHL team - Harris Blitzer, for example, owns both the New Jersey Devils and the Utica Comets. Others don't - the AHL's Charlotte Checkers, for instance, are owned by Michael Kahn, whereas their NHL affiliate, the Florida Panthers, is owned by Sunrise Sports (aka Vincent Viola).

Why is this important? Well, if you're an NHL team that owns your AHL team, you can let that AHL team leak money. You're turning a good profit on the NHL team, so you don't have to make your AHL team economically viable on its own - you just put it in as a massive tax write-off and go on with your day. Thus, you can put all of your AHL team's resources into developing your AHL players to get ready to play at the NHL level. Of course you sign some vets and such of your own, maybe get a few undrafted guys for the AHL team too, but generally, an NHL-owned AHL team's sole purpose is to develop NHL players. Winning the Calder Cup (the AHL equivalent to the Stanley Cup, not to be confused with the Calder Memorial Trophy given to the best NHL rookie) is just gravy on top.

Contrast this to independently-owned AHL teams, where this is not the case. For these teams, making money is paramount. How do you make money? When you win. Fun fact - the Chicago Wolves, incidentally, used to be televised on main channels partially as a fuck you to Bill Wirtz, who didn't let the Chicago Blackhawks' home games be televised, presumably to drive ticket sales. The Wolves saw that and pounced on the opportunity to make some cash. So if nothing else, love them for sticking it to the Hawks. You can still watch Wolves games on My50, it seems, if you've got that channel, as well as AHL streaming options.

But back to independently-owned AHL teams before I go on my daily anti-Hawks crusade. You want to make money. You do that when you win. When you make the postseason. When you win in the postseason. Independently-owned AHL teams want to win, not necessarily develop for the NHL. So when your NHL team keeps taking your best player away for weeks and then giving him back... you get annoyed.

Let's now talk about the ECHL and the Norfolk Admirals. Thankfully, this is going to be a lot simpler. The ECHL, unlike the AHL, has only 28 teams. This means 4 NHL teams don't have an ECHL team. In addition, very few, if any, ECHL teams are owned by their NHL affiliates. This further incentivizes them to play for profit (winning the Kelly Cup, the ECHL version of the Stanley Cup) instead of development. On top of this, relatively few ECHL players actually make it to the NHL. ECHL affiliates change fairly frequently, especially due to many of the teams folding because of financial issues (most recently the Brampton Beast, Manchester Monarchs, and Quad City Mallards). So if an ECHL team decides to drop its NHL affiliate, or vice versa, there are four other suitors, all of whom would probably want to pay the ECHL team decent money to be their associate. For the Admirals, it's easy - they see the Canes lose their AHL affiliate and decide they'd rather take the Jets' offer instead, whether it be for the money (Carolina's supposedly notoriously stingy) or for the security. It's just really fucking funny that it happens at the same time Carolina loses their AHL team. Get fucked lol.

Now let's play Chicago Wolves Simulator. You are Don Levin and Buddy Meyers, the Wolves' owners. Your goal is to win the Calder Cup or at least come pretty damn close so you can pay the bills. You have a good team - hell, you won the Calder last year! - but your best asset is this star goaltender named Pyotr Kochetkov. When Koochie's in net, you usually win because he bails out your team. When he isn't there to help you win, you kind of don't. Now, Carolina's going through its own issues in net, so they keep calling Koochie up and down. And, as previously mentioned, you kind of suck without Koochie. To be fair, you're not all that great with him, but you suck without him. And you have no control over when he goes up to Carolina, even just to sit on the bench.

You miss the playoffs by one point. One. And your three-year contract with the Canes is up. What do you do?

Waddell Young, GM of the Wolves, says their philosophy and the Canes' fundamentally differed. The Wolves develop and win. Winning develops, to them. The Canes wanted the Wolves to focus solely on development. Not winning. So, when their deal with the Canes was up, the Wolves said "no thanks, we're not going to continue this, we're going independent". This decision makes them the first non-NHL affiliated team in almost 30 years. Now, this isn't to say all independently-owned AHL teams are doomed to fail in partnerships because of divergent philosophies. Look at the Hershey Bears and the Washington Capitals for a prime example of that - the Bears are one of the best teams in the AHL and have won four Calder Cups with the Caps as their affiliates since their affiliation began in 2005. But the Wolves were quite unhappy with the Canes, and so the two split. Also notable is that the Canes have also poisoned the waters with who should be their local AHL affiliate, the Charlotte Checkers, to the point where the Checkers affiliated with the Panthers instead. So... there's that.

So what can the Canes now do with non-roster players? They can affiliate with another AHL team (co-affiliation); one instance of this was when the Seattle Kraken affiliated with the Charlotte Checkers in 21-22 because the Coachella Valley Firebirds weren't yet ready. Supposedly the plan is to get an affiliate for 24-25. But what do they do this year? Especially if they can't find an affiliate to share, which seems more and more likely as the summer drags on? Well, you can't sign players to two-way deals with the Wolves anymore, so you can't really keep veterans around in the AHL to call up if needed. So you... sign nine defensemen to NHL contracts and carry them on the roster at all times. Yep. Don Waddell, Canes GM, has basically stated outright that his roster is probably going to have to carry 22 or 23 players at all times to be sure to have replacements in case of injury. And your prospects? They either go to Europe, where they're basically inaccessible for the whole year, or you loan them to other AHL clubs. Waddell has said plans are in place with several teams to send 2 or 3 players each to several different AHL clubs. For your youngest, they go back to major junior in the CHL and related leagues. Same for your veterans - if you want to keep them, you'll have to sign them one-way (I believe) and then loan them down to scattered AHL teams across the league. Prospects who you could have signed to play in the AHL and develop? You're probably going to have to let them go to free agency (see: Kevin Wall, leading player for Penn State and Carolina draft pick, who just inked a deal with the Milwaukee Admirals, AHL affiliate of the Nashville Predators). And then you can send your worse prospects to your ECHL tea- wait. Oops. They just lost that too. Can't do that either. Well, shit.

And remember, one of the Canes' biggest assets is their system of play (with strong defense) that they execute well. The Wolves needed to teach their players the Canes' system and prepare them so the jump from AHL to NHL wouldn't be that tough. The Canes put their coaches on the Wolves for that purpose (the Wolves have since cleaned house and instated their own). Loaning your players to another AHL team? Why would that team be incentivized to teach your player(s) the system? So now even when you're calling up someone to play for the Canes, you have no idea how well they know the system and no idea how well they can play in it.

This now begs the other question - how will the Wolves fill their roster? Well, they've got options. Generally, an AHL team takes the prospects of its NHL affiliate and then fills the rest of the roster with AHL veteran free agents that the AHL team signs to AHL-only deals. But without an NHL team, it's a smidge more complicated, or perhaps easier. Firstly, other NHL teams can loan their prospects to the Wolves instead of their own AHL teams if they consider the Wolves better at developing them, for instance. The Wolves can now also sign whatever free agent players they find roaming around that could be a good fit for their team - undrafted college players, good ECHL players that can't seem to get called up enough, AHL veterans, players on European teams (especially Russians who might want the chance to get the fuck out of Russia) and so on. These free agent players could see the Wolves as a stable AHL team that can pay solid money (the AHL doesn't have a cap) with a strong chance at contending for the Calder as well as a possible stepping stone to an NHL contract. The Wolves also don't have to worry about these free agents taking ice time away from the Canes' prospects, who would need to be prioritized under an affiliation, which would also be a strong incentive for AHL free agent veterans to sign with them - they'd be able to get a truly fair chance, unlike under an affiliate system where prospects are the priority and free agents are generally playing fewer (and worse) minutes.

And remember - Chicago just drafted Bedard. The city's getting back into hockey and Hawks tickets are expensive. Want to watch some quality hockey on the cheap? Why not come to Wolves games! They're only 18 miles away from the Hawks, too!

TL;DR stan the Wolves for rejecting the system. Canes Suck.

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #stereducation #carolina hurricanes #chicago wolves #norfolk admirals #ahl #echl

[stereax]

likes and reblogs highly appreciated here!!! spent a ton of time on this, hope it shows!

let's go devils!!!

#new jersey devils #nj devils #devils primer #hockey primer #nhl #stanley cup playoffs #scp lb #devs lb #devils lb #i'd tag all the players but I'm not that obnoxious #but yeah please give me the Internet Attention to make me feel like I Did A Thing here #stereducation #stereanalysis

[stereax]

Can you explain the erik-canes drama please 😚

Yeah, no problem, anon! Meet me under the read more for the details :)

So last night we found Haulzy wearing a "Canes Suck" bracelet -

(let the record show I posted this FIRST before the Canes fans found it because I am speedier than them and also much better in every single way 😉)

Now, you may be asking yourself, "why is a grown, 32-year-old hockey player of a man wearing a bracelet that says Canes Suck on it?" That is a WONDERFUL question. First, let's look at Haula's career.

Erik Haula was drafted in the seventh round by Minnesota. He played for the Wild for a few years before, well, the Wild essentially sold him to the Golden Knights in the expansion draft - they basically sent Vegas Alex Tuch (one of their better prospects) for a third and "expansion draft considerations", meaning the Knights would choose Haula in the draft and not a player like Matt Dumba or Marco Scandella, who were more vital to the Wild's core.

Haula plays for the Knights for two years - he's part of the team that wills itself into the Cup finals in 2017-18. In 2018-19, Haula goes down early, getting injured in a game against Toronto that keeps him out the rest of the season.

Vegas trades him to Carolina three days before his wedding. It's a Kelly McCrimmon move - and if you know the Knights, you know what that means (trading fan favorites for better returns). By all accounts, Haula loved Vegas, so he's going into this Carolina thing with some apprehension, especially because this is the last year on his contract. If he puts up good numbers, he's going to get a payday. If not, well, probably not. Remember, he had a career year in 2017-18. He wants to prove he's got what it takes.

Alright. He gets there, gets hurt for a few games with an LBI, comes back, gets hurt again and is out for a few weeks. At the time he gets his second injury, he's got 11 points in 16 games, with 8 goals, one less than team leaders Svechnikov, Aho, and Hamilton (all of whom played more games). So the dude's playing stellar, but then gets banged up. He slots back into the lineup just before Christmas.

And here's where things go south. You see, Haula and his wife, Kristen, were planning to start a family. Kristen got pregnant probably around August, given that when Haula posted the baby announcement on his Instagram he noted a May due date.

The baby is found without a heartbeat 12/30/19.

Erik Haula plays the next day and pots a goal and an assist.

It's a second-trimester miscarriage, which means it's likely Kristen had to deliver a stillborn baby.

He points to the sky after the goal, honoring his lost daughter.

It's around this time that relations between Haula and the Canes begin to take a nosedive.

(Fun fact, contrary to what Canes fans will tell you, Haula's play only suffered significantly after the miscarriage. In the four games in December he played before the miscarriage, he got 2 goals and 2 assists, so in 20 games he had 15 points which is nothing to scoff at for a middle-sixer. Despite being tossed around a bit in the lineup, he was still producing very well.)

Reports of exactly what was going on are incredibly difficult to find and are generally tainted by the biases of whoever writes them. It's stated that Haula was, in some way or another, "forced" to play the day after the miscarriage and never given time to emotionally recover from it. He gets scratched a few times (and again, it's a contract year for him, so ice time is exceedingly valuable). There are rumors of a "shouting match" between Haula and head coach Rod Brind'Amour. Supposedly, he's not participating in after-game workouts that Brind'Amour makes the team do (for recovery) and thus "doesn't fit the culture of the team", "has no respect", and "is a jerk". (Which... we'd prefer him do work on the ice, thanks???) Other rumors say he's "bullying" the rookies on the Canes (which have never been corroborated by a reliable source nor been backed up by similar actions anywhere else). Kristen makes vague posts on Instagram that Canes fans interpret as being derogatory towards the team - Reddit widely quotes one as "Don't allow your loyalty to become slavery. If they aren't appreciating what you bring to the table, let them eat alone."

So Haula gets dealt at the deadline to the Panthers as part of a deal for Vincent Trocheck, after playing only 41 games for the Canes. And he journeys around the NHL for a few years after that before finding his home in New Jersey.

Ever since then, the Canes have absolutely haunted Haula. The "1-14" thing Canes fans put on pictures of him? It's because, since leaving the Canes, he's won once at their home rink (PNC)... and lost 14 times. In three consecutive years, his teams have lost to the Canes each time in the playoffs (Predators, Bruins, then Devils, respectively). He's the first player that happened to, where he played for three different teams and each year lost to the same team.

Canes fans boo him every time he touches the ice - for them, he's a traitor that shit-talked Raleigh and the team and backs it up by playing like a goon when he's against them.

So if there's one person on the whole Devils roster who deserves to wear a Canes Suck bracelet, it's Uncle Haula.

Go off, king.

📿👑

~ [ Addendum 1: Pasta ] ~

David Pastrnak, much like Erik Haula, also lost a child - his son died only six days old. I'm sure, when Pasta accidentally ran into Antti Raanta on the ice during the 2022 playoffs, they didn't go on his socials and make disgusting comments about his child's death...

Oh? They did? Well then.

Canes fans will tell you they only had the utmost of respect for Haula during his miscarriage and never used it against him, both during and after his Canes tenure. Somehow, I doubt that.

But maybe that's just me.

~ [ Addendum 2: Signs ] ~

When Canes fans make signs like this about you, it's understandable why you get upset.

The sign reads "It's me. Haula. I'm the problem. It's me. Hi everybody agrees", with cutouts of Haula's former teams' logos pasted on top.

What's so strange is that no Panthers, Bruins, Knights, Predators, or Wild fans seem to have a problem with Haula. It's only the Canes fans calling him "locker room cancer". Jack Hughes disagrees with this assessment.

Coincidentally, the "locker room cancer" charge was also famously said about Dougie Hamilton...

Oh, hey, look, some Canes fans behind the Devils' bench, just behind Jack, made a sign! I'm sure it's nice and respectful :)

Wait, is that Ellen Weinberg-Hughes next to a man whose face is photoshopped to be Sebastian Aho?

The sign says "Jack Your Mom's A Ho", by the way.

And several Canes players signed it.

"Bunch of jerks" is right.

So if you wonder why Jack Hughes beat the shit out of Sebastian Aho... look no further.

~ [ Addendum 3: Culture ] ~

Once again, I point you to this post by eugeniosuarez -

1 is about Jordan Staal, 2 and 3 are about Tony DeAngelo, if you're unsure.

Yeah, I think I see the culture problem here. Just to be clear, this one, right?

Glad we're on the same page 👍

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #stereducation #not your typical analysis but still #uncle haula #erik haula #nj devils #new jersey devils #carolina hurricanes

[stereax]

This whole deal with Ottawa and Dadonov - could you possibly help me understand what happened plainly? I'm a little confused with the twitter lingo. Thank you 💙

No prob, anon! Under the cut for you 💜

So Evgenii Dadonov, when he signed his contract with Ottawa, had an M-NTC (modified no-trade clause, or colloquially a no-trade list). I believe he could put 10 teams on the list. What that means is, by a certain time on a certain day (usually, the first day of free agency), he submits a list of teams he would NOT consent to be traded to. If his team (the Senators) wants to trade him to a team that is NOT on this list, they can do it and he can't complain (like the Bruins did with Taylor Hall, shipping him to Chicago because it wasn't on his list). If they want to trade him to a team that IS on this list, they basically have to beg him to waive the M-NTC, and he can say no, and they can go kick sand about it (like the Blues had to because Torey Krug wouldn't waive his full NMC to facilitate the Kevin Hayes trade).

When the Senators traded Dadonov to Vegas, he did not have Vegas on his no-trade list, but he did have Anaheim. He keeps his M-NTC when he moves from Ottawa to Vegas, as he didn't have to waive it. Vegas later trades him to Anaheim, and when he and his agent hear about it, they immediately ask "What the fuck, wasn't Anaheim on the no-trade list?" The NHL confirms it and the trade is cancelled, much to the embarrassment of the Knights. Oops.

So why are the Senators being punished? When Vegas and Ottawa were on call to figure out their trade, Vegas (obviously) asked Ottawa "hey, so what's Dadonov's no-trade list?" And Ottawa said "oh, he didn't submit one this year." This was a lie - Dadonov did, in fact, submit the no-trade list. Supposedly, Dorion was the only person on the call, which is also highly suspect. So from what it sounds, Dorion knowingly lied to the Knights about the no-trade list not having been submitted, presumably to get them to agree to the trade, and this blew up in his face.

There's apparently a 73-page document that the NHL issued after investigating this, so it's safe to say that Dorion is almost certainly guilty here. And Andlauer, the new owner, is NOT happy about losing that first-round pick. So Dorion got canned.

But why is Vegas doing this? Mostly to clear themselves from the stigma of not honoring M-NTCs. Vegas is... kind of infamous for being a place where contracts go to die and people get traded with no feelings involved (see: Marc-André Fleury). Having a reputation, however real, of ignoring no-trade lists? Not great. At all. So Vegas wants to clear its name here, officially.

Also, a little bit, to help themselves in the long run - if Ottawa loses a first-round pick, everyone else moves up one spot. So it helps, just a little bit, in the future.

"But wait, isn't there an NHL-owned registry of no-trade clauses?" LOL no, actually! It's a privacy thing, from what it sounds like - imagine if someone got their hands on all the no-trade list details and leaked them. It could cause massive backlash. So the NHL puts the burden on teams, and teams have generally been good at dealing with no-trade list stuff and transmitting the necessary information. Well, until now.

Hope this helps!!!

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #ottawa senators #pierre dorion #evgenii dadonov

[stereax]

I seek your wisdom, o wise one.

Exactly how screwed are the sharks, the flames, and the oilers?

You can't see me but I am RUBBING MY HANDS IN DELIGHT at this ask. Nothing I love more than talking about why teams suck. As always, meet you under the cut! 💜

(Also, sorry this took so long! Had to make a presentation on the Chinese Super League for sports diplomacy and it siphoned my will to live.)

Do I have you? Great! Okay. Let's go one by one.

CALGARY FLAMES: CANDLE IN THE WIND

I, for one, never got the hype behind the Flames. Every pundit in the entire NHL was saying "Oh, the Flames are going to have a massive bounceback year, last year was a down year for everyone!" And now look at them. 3-7-1 to start the season with a mere 7 points in 11 games.

Spoiler alert: Trading your best forward in points production to literal Satan for a single corn chip is not going to help you be competitive. Who'd'a thunk it?

In addition, there seems to be a major coaching problem. On theory, this team should be solid. Maybe not top of the league good, but solid enough to make a wildcard spot at least. But you watch the systems at play and they just don't work with the players. For instance, Huberdeau is an east-west player being forced to play a north-south system. He can't do what he does best, make plays, because the current north-south system simply won't allow it. Firing Sutter was supposed to fix this locker room. It only seems to have made the problems worse. Christ, Zadorov is apologizing to the fans because they're playing that shittily.

How screwed are they? Probably a solid 8/10. Markstrom seems to have bounced back, but the team in front of him has not, tanking his save percentage because the defense simply cannot defend. We're being treated to a classic Huberdeau and Kadri Disappearing Act (2-4-6 and -12; 1-4-5 and -12). Mangiapane and Andersson have both gotten suspensions already for no god damn reason. All extension talks (Lindholm and Hanifin chief among them) have been suspended. It's chillingly possible this team will have to sell big at the deadline to get any value out of their expiring UFAs - and then what? You've got a few good pieces (Cary, Sharangovich, Wolf) that can lead your retool, but you've also got anchor weights in massively underperforming contracts, like the aforementioned Huberdeau's, that come with no-move clauses and are just such bad deals that even if those clauses were waived, who'd take them?

EDMONTON OILERS: BULLS ON PARADE

I think if you told anyone in July that the Edmonton Oilers were going to start their season 2-7-1 in 10 games, you would be laughed out the door. And yet.

I do have to preface this by saying yes, McDavid was out for several games, and when you're without the best player in the NHL, it gets tougher to win games. But fuck, man. The Devils are now down BOTH their top six centers for the foreseeable future and yet they're still managing to win games. You know why? DEPTH SCORING. Something that the Oilers have not had since seemingly the 80s. If your game plan revolves so strongly around one guy, chances are you'll be fucked anyway if that guy goes down.

Also, Campbell cannot stop a beach ball in net. Skinner isn't much better. How much of this is the defense and how much is just the goalies sucking? Unclear, but it is NOT a good sign. Although the Oilers mostly work under "outscore your opponent before they outscore you", you want to be able to make SOME timely saves. Neither tendy is giving any hope recently.

And all this can ultimately be traced back to Ken Holland fucking this team over with contracts. Nurse did not deserve that much. Kane is questionable at best. Campbell? Christ. And then you have no cap room to sign actually decent bottom sixers and then wonder why they're getting shelled. Why is Sam Gagner, a random legacy Oiler on a league minimum contract, on your second line? Make it make sense!

The thing is - you CAN win if you have a few guys getting paid the big bucks. Just look at Vegas for an example of that. You CAN'T win if you have a few guys getting paid the big bucks and almost no depth beyond your top line where you stack McDavid and Draisaitl to try to get SOMETHING going. You can't doubleshift those two across the entire lineup. I know, it sucks.

SAN JOSE SHARKS: COLD WATER

How screwed are they? I'll give them a 6/10. We're seeing the "or bust" part of "cup or bust". Can they turn it around? They have McJesus. Anything is POSSIBLE when you have McJesus. But it's not looking pretty, at all. I bet they end up in the wildcard hunt, or close to it. Just enough to maybe make the playoffs but too exhausted to do anything else.

Remember, Draisaitl's contract is up after 24-25. McDavid, 25-26. Will they want to stay in this garbage fire? If one, or God forbid both, ask to be traded, this team better channel the early 2010s and tank hard.

And now we reach the ultimate lolcow. These guys STINK. 0-10-1 in 11 games. .045 points percentage. The only point they managed to get was because Blackwood stood on his motherfucking HEAD in game 2.

But then you have contracts like Hertl, Vlasic, and Couture, which you can't move and which will weigh down the franchise for years while it tries to rebuild. What are you going to do with them? How will you get rid of them?

What's the problem? More to the point: What isn't??? There's zero star power on the entire roster. The defense doesn't know how to defend and the offense can't score against a Shooter Tutor, much less an actual NHL goalie. The goalies... they're trying! I think! Give them credit. And Quinn's trying, maybe, to coach? But when do you kick his ass to the curb too, just to try to put some life back into that lineup? That is the world's deadliest team. It's like hockey is a punishment to them!

FanDuel is running bets on when they will finally win their first regular season game. That's how ass they are. I wish I were kidding.

On top of all this, the locker room seems like it's going up in flames. Remember the Nucks' 10-1 beating of the Sharks? Kahkonen, the Sharks' tendy, got injured after the sixth goal, when Kuzmenko ran into him. Kuzmenko and the Canucks made sure Kahkonen was alright and that it wasn't a major injury. The Sharks? They just went back to the bench!

This unironically is probably the worst team in my lifetime, and maybe for decades before I was born too. They're just so BAD. There's no redeeming reason to watch Sharks games at all except to laugh at the Sharks as they get 10 goals dumped on them.

How screwed are they? 10/10*. I'm sorry, but fucking Zetterlund is leading your team in goals. ZETTERLUND. I cannot name ONE player on that roster who I would send to an All-Star Game. Maybe Blackwood, if he doesn't crumble into fucking dust first. And knowing how injury prone he is, he just might.

But this is a 10/10 with an asterisk. And here's why: * They WANT to be bad. The worse they do this year, the better their chances for Celebrini or whoever is the first overall. That's the idea of the Shark Tank. And if that's the goal, it's being executed perfectly.

There you go, anon! Hope this helps! If you have any more questions, feel free to drop into my inbox! 💜

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #san jose sharks #calgary flames #edmonton oilers

[stereax]

Sure I'll bite, tell me about the trade oh wise one

VANCOUVER GOT FLEEEEEEEECED-

Ahem. Ahem.

Instant Stereanalysis - Lindholm/Kuzmenko Trade

Okay, so Lindholm was linked to the Nucks for a while - the Nucks don't really have a 2C. Pettersson and Miller can both play C, but they're much better together on the "Lotto line" with Boeser. So it makes sense why Lindholm was moved.

It also makes sense why Kuzmenko was. He's not performing to his contract and is becoming $5.5m in the press box. So he was likely going to be moved anyway.

My problem is everything else about the trade. Lindholm for Kuzmenko, 1 for 1, would make sense. Okay, Lindholm is the better player, and has a lower cap hit, so you need to throw in extras. Vancouver does this by... throwing in Brzustewicz (75th overall d-man prospect from 2023 who looks like a steal). And a first. And a conditional fourth. And Joni Jurmo (a decent d-man prospect in the Liiga right now). You see the problem here?

Plus, Lindholm has neither an extension in place nor RFA status after the season. If Vancouver flames out - pardon the pun - early in the playoffs this year (and I suspect they might), Lindholm can simply walk, and you just threw away Kuzy, a first (which, if they lose in the first round in the playoffs, would be in the 17-24 range), and one and a half good d-man prospects for what, 30-40 games of Lindholm? Ouch.

Now, if Vancouver re-signs Lindholm on a reasonable deal, this trade will look a lot better. As it stands, though... Yikes. Patrick Allvin's first trade under his new extension is not great.

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #elias lindholm #vancouver canucks #andrei kuzmenko #calgary flames

[stereax]

in terms of the zegras trade talk, is there any way (in terms of cap situation etc) that it would be possible for him to join jamie in philly?

and which teams do you think it are likely for him to go to otherwise?

thank you in advance <3

Hi there anon! So so sorry for the delay on this, I hope you're not too mad at me.

Your question is incredibly intriguing, but it's not quite exact. Any team, theoretically, can pick up Zegras, as long as they move the right pieces back or conduct the proper cap gymnastics. That being said, many GMs will not find him worth the price, and, furthermore, not worth the hassle of potentially taking a sledgehammer to the future.

Moving Zegras during the season (as in before the trade deadline) versus in the offseason would play out drastically differently under the cap and mean different decisions from Verbeek and co. Meet me under the cut for more!

So let's talk about the cap. I don't know how much you know about it, anon, but let me give a quick refresher. The NHL has a "hard" salary cap; teams cannot surpass the limit, full stop. (This is contrasted with MLB soft cap, for instance, where you just pay more tax for being over the cap.) There is one notable example, however: LTIR. Standing for Long-Term Injured Reserve (well, not really, but we all call it that), LTIR allows teams to surpass the salary cap, as long as a player on the team is "bona fide" injured and will be out for more than 24 days and 10 games.

Now here's the complicated thing: cap "accrues" every day that you're under it. (Kind of like it gains interest.) So, as the cap is 83.5m, if your team only makes 82.5m, you have that extra 1m accruing. This is key at the trade deadline where that 1m can end up as over double that to play with in extra wiggle room. (At the trade deadline, you can trade for a 2m player and be at 84.5m, but since you accrued the cap earlier in the season it averages out and is okay.) However, when you have players on LTIR, your cap basically stops accruing. This is why you'll see teams keep season-ending injuries as regular IR and not LTIR if they can - it helps the cap accrue. (Two instances of this right now are Kirby Dach and Dougie Hamilton, both out for the season as far as we're concerned, neither on LTIR.) Notably, in the playoffs, you can activate players off LTIR and go over the cap because of some badly written rules that nobody wants to fix (literally). This is often colloquially termed "pulling a Kucherov" after the Tampa Bay Lightning did this in the 2020-21 season, putting Nikita Kucherov on LTIR for the entire year, using his cap hit to acquire players, then reactivating him game 1 of the playoffs and going wildly over the cap limit. And it's pretty dang successful too - the Vegas Golden Knights emulated that success with Mark Stone last season.

So here's where we take a look at Philly.

Philly has around $3m in deadline cap space. Zegras's contract has a $5.75m cap hit (for this year and two more). Now, he could be traded to Philly at 50% retained salary at the deadline, but this would likely require giving up a lot of extra capital in exchange for Anaheim holding that 50% of cap hit on Zegras for the next three years. (Generally, retaining salary on an expiring deal costs a lot less than on a deal with extra years left, for hopefully obvious reasons.) Philly won't do this. This would be stupid from Briere. If they want Zegras, they have a much better plan in their back pocket: Ryan Ellis.

Ryan Ellis is a defenseman with a $6.25m cap hit for the next four years. His career is most likely over; he has a rare back injury that he's probably not going to recover from in a way that will let him play hockey again. At least in theory, he plays for the Flyers. However, he's been sitting on IR all year. If Philly wants to acquire Zegras, they will (almost certainly) slide Ellis to LTIR and use that $6m in cap space to put Zegras in. The one problem with this is it forces Ellis to LTIR for the rest of his career, most likely, and disadvantages the Flyers in the long run.

Option three is just to make space with bad or nonvaluable contracts. Cal Petersen buries $3.85m in the minors. (Buried contracts are weird; essentially, if you send guys on certain kinds of contract - as in expensive - down to the AHL, you're on the hook for some or most of the salary.) Move that contract anywhere and Philly should have room for Zegras at the deadline. Plus it makes it easier for the team to deal with new contacts. Or you move Cam Atkinson, an aging vet making $5.875m, to a team that's not on his modified no-trade clause and free that space for Zegras. Or you move Rasmus Ristolainen, an underperforming defenseman making $5.1m... See what I mean? Any team you like has options to move around cap to pick up Zegras. Not only the teams like Chicago, Buffalo, and Nashville who have the obvious cap space, but also teams trying to retool into younger cores could be keenly interested. (I could go through all the teams in the NHL as potential suitors, but that might be too much information. Unless you want that. In which case, ask and I'll do it.)

That being said, it sounds like Zegras will be moved during the offseason - and that makes sense, as usually contracts with significant term and roster-forming implications aren't traded at the deadline. At that point, with UFA contracts going off the books, it can quite literally be anyone's game to pick up Zegras. However, it'll probably be costly - a young, talented center who will be in your NHL top six, has serious upside, is on a fairly cost-friendly contract for two more years and then retains RFA status? Those don't grow on trees. Expect him to be moved for either a blue chip prospect or a first-round pick. Maybe both, if Verbeek is smart. Genuinely cannot think of a trade of such a player in recent history. (The closest off the top of my head? The Matthew Tkachuk trade - that was two prime players, a first, and a prospect for him. Granted, his circumstances were much different than Zegras's, and Matthew was undeniably worth a lot more.)

Generally, you're not trading away or giving up young core players. Verbeek doing so with Drysdale opens the floodgates. Whether it's because Verbeek wants to sculpt this team the way he wants (neither Drysdale nor Zegras were drafted by him) or he simply sees no future for Zegras on the Ducks, it's incredibly puzzling, not least of all because Anaheim seems mired in this rebuild, and Verbeek may be adding years to it if he plays his hand wrong.

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #trevor zegras #anaheim ducks

[stereax]

INSTANT STEREANALYSIS - LYUBUSHKIN TRADE

Trade Details:

TOR Maple Leafs receive:

Ilya Lyubushkin (75% Retained)

Kirill Slepets

ANA Ducks receive:

2025 3rd [TOR]

[50% retention on Lyubushkin - $1.375m]

CAR Hurricanes receive:

2024 6th [TOR]

[25% retention on Lyubushkin - $687.5k]

TOR Maple Leafs StereGrade: D+

ANA Ducks StereGrade: A

CAR Hurricanes StereGrade: A

TOR Maple Leafs Instant Analysis:

THIS was your missing piece???

Lyubushkin is an RD, which is, admittedly, what Toronto desperately needs right now. It's not an absolute fail of a trade for that purpose alone. That being said... this is so clearly a reaction to the Tanev trade that it's not even funny. And it's just. Lyubushkin is literally replacement level. On a less than league minimum cap hit, for "only" a third and a sixth, it's. Fine. I guess. But this so clearly isn't the piece Toronto wants at this point of its window. Not to mention he's a former Leaf, too, and really wasn't that great when he was there. He blocks shots? I guess? But he's a third pair defenseman, not a top four like the Leafs need. This trade is so reactionary, it's nuts.

As one of my Discord friends calls it, "average Leafs grit trade".

ANA Ducks Instant Analysis: You got rid of Lyubushkin at the deadline? For a THIRD? Well done, my guys. Well done. A replacement level player, as a rental on an expiring deal, and you got a decent pick for him. Easy, easy A.

CAR Hurricanes Instant Analysis: Incredibly similar to the Tanev deal yesterday. Waddell weaponizes cap space to pick up an extra pick. It's a lot less retained than NJ did yesterday, so the pick is worse, but still. It's an A. Stop copying us.

#stereanalysis #instant stereanalysis #ilya lyubushkin #kirill slepets #toronto maple leafs #anaheim ducks #carolina hurricanes

[stereax]

hey!! i kinda wanna get into fantasy hockey but it seems . extremely intimidating ! i was wondering if u know of any primers / yt vids / anything that u found helpful when u were getting into it that might b helpful! :3

Hiya nonnie!

Honestly, to be blunt: it very much, uh, depends how much tolerance for White Cishet Men Who Think They're THE Shit Talking Puck Semi Accurately you have. I'm unfortunately not kidding.

Now, to answer more fully, let's go under the cut!

First off, it's important to keep in mind that everything is, to some extent, random. You can draft Connor McDavo with your first overall pick and he can become Collarbone McBroken for half the season. That's part of the fun, unexpected stuff happening. Fantasy hockey can be intimidating and overwhelming sometimes, but if you ask around, I (and possibly others) am totally willing to listen to your thoughts and help point you on the right track.

Secondly, though, there is a lot you can control. You don't draft Brendan Smith expecting him to put up McDavid-like numbers. That doesn't make sense. If a fourth-liner just scored a hat trick, it doesn't mean he'll do that every game.

Some people say that a good draft is key to winning a fantasy hockey league, or even doing well. This is only partially true. You can win with an autodraft team, but it's much more of an uphill climb.

That's why my first big tip is to try mock drafts. Do several, on Yahoo and ESPN and wherever you want. Learn who's available at generally what rounds. This can help you identify possible steals in the draft. Additionally, be very aware of the rules of your league. Is it points or categories? Are the points "standard" or are some stats more heavily weighed? As an anecdote, one of my leagues has a strange point distribution that gives massive weight to penalty minutes. This lends itself heavily to the playstyles of, for instance, the Tkachuks, Tom Wilson, and Evander Kane.

My second big tip is to watch hockey news. Familiarize yourself with players slated for a breakout year or players that are good at certain stats (Alec Martinez, Blocks Georg, comes to mind here). Especially get cozy with teams you and your group of opponents don't follow much. Another anecdote, my friends are mostly Devils and Pens fans. This allows me to capitalize on (somewhat) under-the-radar players like Sam Reinhart on the Panthers, Drew Doughty on the Kings, and Sean Durzi on the Coyotes.

My third big tip, depending on your league, is learning to stream. Not hockey games, but players. Generally, there are fewer hockey games on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. This means that usually, your lineup will have spots open those days, and will be full Tuesdays, Thursdays, Saturdays, with mostly-full Sundays. If you drop and add players strategically, you can get five, six, or even seven "man-games" out of a single slot, increasing the amount of points you can earn. DataDrivenHockey on Instagram runs awesome fantasy help data sheets, along with streaming advice to maximize man-games.

As for resources... Yahoo and ESPN for mock drafts. Do your mock drafts. I cannot underscore how important this is. ESPN publishes good articles as well, about player stocks weekly and more general ones in the preseason. Yahoo seems to too. Here's a good "fantasy hockey 101" article I just pulled up from Yahoo, actually. (Be aware that some of the things it mentions, like separating forwards into C, LW, and RW, as well as salary cap drafts, generally don't exist in ESPN leagues.) DDH, as mentioned, for streaming stuff; posts there go up usually every Friday. There are also sites like DobberHockey and RotoWire that are good for fantasy hockey stuff, but I don't personally use them, so I can't vouch for their effectiveness. Places like the Athletic do draft cheat sheets. Once you get into the season, you're mostly adding and dropping based on average points per game anyway, especially over the last 15 (sometimes 7 or 30) days.

And then, if you're beginning to get hyperfixated, you can start looking for your low-view-count YouTube videos.

But honestly, it's probably better if you just drop a line with a friend to ask at that point. Or me. I'm totally down to talk fantasy hockey and give my tips and advice!!!

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #fantasy hockey

[stereax]

Do you think it's a good idea for the Devils to trade for Markstrom?

And which player(s) do you think could go to Calgary?

Anons!!! I love anons sob sob!!!

everyone else hates me but anons got me <3

Okay, let's get into this one under the cut eh? :D

So. Do I want Markstrom?

Eh. Not really. I feel like Markstrom is far on the wrong side of thirty. We would have him for two years at that $6m cap hit, and then he'd probably be gone with the rise of Daws, Schmid, and/or Poulter, or another goalie we find or trade for. Markstrom is a very temporary solution to this problem.

That being said, we are in a spot where we can theoretically make a run for third in the Metro and then the postseason. Under this lens, getting Markstrom as soon as possible would be wildly beneficial to this. Additionally, Markstrom could mentor Daws, Schmid, and/or Poulter. So there are benefits to getting him.

I think Fitz sees that the goaltending NEEDS to be addressed and that Vanecek can't reliably be an NHL quality starter. So something should happen, either now, or at the draft, or before the next season. I seriously doubt he goes into the next season with Vitek and Daws.

So is it a good idea? Depends. Depends what happens, depends what we think the team is going to look like next year. (Remember, Mercer and Toffoli need new contracts, as well as others.) I think the Devils should have tried to land Mrazek before he extended with Chicago, honestly. Saros feels too expensive, but he would probably solve the goaltending issue longterm. Markstrom is a shorter term solution that could have a very limited shelf life and a Raanta-esque fall off a cliff.

What would a Markstrom trade look like? Vanecek has to go the other way, for starters, both capwise and just in general. Next, they're gonna want either Holtz or a first. I'd rather give them the first, even if I don't think Markstrom is worth it, especially not without retention. Then probably a later round pick like Fitzy's favorite third and a mid-tier prospect like a Clarke or a Vilen. See if you can get a late round pick too.

So to NJD - Markstrom, CGY 2024 5th (from CHI).

To CGY - Vanecek, Clarke, NJD 2025 1st, NJD 2024 3rd.

I don't want to sell the 2024 1st, given the current state of the team, plus its conditionality already attached to San Jose with the Meier trade. I think a first is a bit of an overpay too, but I don't think Calgary sells for less.

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #jacob markstrom #calgary flames #nj devils #new jersey devils

[stereax]

Hello! I am writing a paper for a law school class on transnational courts about the IIHF and NHL-Russia player transfers. I’m starting with the Fedotov mess and looking for a thesis from there. I have found great stuff on litigation from the early 2000s and player transfer agreements with other leagues under previous CBAs but very little current info. I’m also looking for any updates on Fedotov since the IIHF’s ruling in August and Russia ignoring it. I know he’s playing in the KHL now. Did the Flyers just let it go because there isn’t anything they can do? Any help/ideas/resources would be much appreciated!!

I love you for this, so so so much. You've combined just about all of my interests in one ask. I'll give you the very concise version of it here, for public consumption. You might know most of this already, and I'm sorry if this doesn't help that much - but DM me for more info. I can and will go searching with you. Hell, if you want, you can "interview" me via Discord or via DMs here and cite me as a source. (I've done that a lot with my friends for papers hahaha, asked them their thoughts and then cited it.) Under the cut, as always! 💜

As you're probably aware, the IIHF is the leading organizer of ice hockey stuff around the world. I believe it's them that organize the Worlds and World Juniors, and they also have international standards for things like rink size. (Of course, the NHL plays on a nonstandard rink, so...) Importantly, however, the IIHF has very little legal power. It is difficult for them to fully enforce their decisions - especially when it comes to a country that won't listen.

Ivan Fedotov was a seventh-round selection of the Philadelphia Flyers in 2015. He has been playing primarily in the KHL since. In 2021-22, he backstopped CSKA Moscow to the Gagarin Cup (the KHL's version of the Stanley Cup) in what was widely considered a "breakout" year. Following this, in his last year of eligibility, Philadelphia signed him to a one-year entry-level contract (ELC), with the intent of bringing him to Philly and seeing if he could be a good enough goaltender at the NHL level (presumably to be the backup to Carter Hart) or even the AHL level. This is where things get screwy.

Fedotov is arrested shortly after the ELC is signed under the "charge" of avoiding the Russian army draft (understand that this was most likely a politically motivated arrest). He spends the next year at a fairly remote Russian military base, only communicating with the Flyers once in this entire year. He was allowed to continue training part-time, but not to the level he could otherwise have. So the ELC slides one year.

In the summer of 2023, Philly tries to get Fedotov overseas again... only to find that he's signed a two-year deal with CSKA Moscow. Now, the NHL and KHL used to have transfer agreements, but the NHL cut these agreements after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, Fedotov has two contracts, and he clearly can't play in two places at once. What happens?

The IIHF steps in, and decides that Fedotov's ELC with Philly should be honored - and that he and CSKA Moscow were not allowed to sign a contract with the ELC in place. They ban Fedotov from playing for 4 months and CSKA Moscow from being able to sign non-domestic players (international transfers) for one year.

Before I continue, something to be aware of with sports in Russia: certain teams are sponsored by the state and oligarchs far more than others. This is true with Russian soccer and also true with Russian football. CSKA Moscow, in particular, is one of the most-supported teams and is notable for its ties with the Russian army. Its dominance during the Soviet era was because it could literally draft the best hockey players (and I mean draft as in draft like for the army). It's currently owned by Rosneft, an oil company that's majority owned by the Russian government. (SKA Saint Petersburg is another of these highly-supported teams, for what that's worth.)

So CSKA Moscow, sort of predictably, flips off the IIHF. And starts Fedotov. In their first game. The IIHF can't really do much - it hits CSKA Moscow with a 5000 CHF fine (laughable) and threatens to refer it, and Fedotov, to the IIHF Disciplinary Board if they keep doing it. They keep doing it. Of course. The KHL's president claims that the 4-month ban threatens Fedotov's Russian constitutional right to work and that they will thusly disregard the ruling. As of November 2nd, Fedotov is still playing in the KHL - he just recorded a shutout, actually.

The Flyers really can't do much, outside of pressure the IIHF, which has little concrete power, to levy more punishments (and the IIHF has gone quiet about this too). Philly could try to, theoretically, smuggle Fedotov out of Russia a la Malkin, but you can only imagine what the Russian government will do to Fedotov and his family if he tries to defect. Especially because Fedotov's what, 26? 27? And goalies don't tend to have a long shelf life. Even if he came to the States, and played some games in the NHL, would those precious few years be worth the wellbeing of him and his family? Probably not. Again, since the NHL and KHL no longer have a transfer agreement, Philly and CSKA Moscow would have to come to terms on their own - and CSKA Moscow isn't keen on giving up their current star tendy to play in likely the AHL.

And remember, Philly also has Matvei Michkov now. Whose father recently died under "mysterious circumstances". And it's rumored those circumstances had to do with Michkov's father trying to terminate his son's KHL contract to send him to America sooner. That's also a factor here that must be considered - is it better to play nice with the KHL now and give up on Fedotov to be able to bring Michkov stateside?

The situation is incredibly complicated; unfortunately, there seems to be no easy end in sight, and probably very little chance of Fedotov seeing NHL ice in his career. The war in Ukraine also complicates this, and that is currently locked at a stalemate, so... good luck there.

Alright, that's my little lecture. If you need anything else, do DM me! I can see what else I can do as well :)

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #stereducation #ivan fedotov #philadelphia flyers #cska moscow

[stereax]

What’s up with the Canucks? I know their cap situation has historically been tight - do you think it got better this offseason?

The cap situation is the LEAST of the Canucks' worries, honestly. That whole team is a dumpster fire.

More under the cut. Pardon the delay in getting this out, but this is a long one!

So first off, the cap situation is bad. It honestly looks better than it is, mostly because of the LTIR. Plus, there's a ton of players whose contracts are expiring next offseason, most notable of which are Pettersson and Beauvillier that the Nucks really need to keep. The main problem is, management keeps swinging at bad players and overpaying them, then floundering on contracts for good players.

So, uh, that Bo Horvat trade, huh? Let's start with that. You signed JT Miller, a 30 year old, to a 7 year extension that would end when he's 37, for $8m a year with NMCs for the first few years and M-NTCs for the rest, going off a career year that he regressed from (predictably). This is a guy who we know has some character issues as well (see: him screaming at Collin Delia, his goalie teammate, for being unsure whether to leave the crease). And you traded your captain away to make the cap work for him? What did you even get for Horvat anyway? Beauvillier, Raty, and a top-12 protected first? Why didn't you trade Miller instead?

Speaking of a swing and a mess, Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Got signed to an 8x8.25, got traded from Arizona to Vancouver, and... got bought out. Now they're gonna have to deal with that on their books for eight whole years. Just another Benning-era flop. I guess it's still better than paying him for that amount, though.

They did pick up some guys, though, with the cap space they acquired - Teddy Blueger, Pius Suter, Carson Soucy. Oh, and extended Kuzmenko. But none of them move the needle enough. None of those players are going to propel this frankly lost team into the playoffs.

Now let's look at the LTIR list, or should I say LTIRetirement list. We've got Tucker Poolman, who played a total of three games last year and promptly disappeared off the map (and NOBODY knows what's wrong with him - and I asked! - but it's speculated to be concussion-related and possibly career-ending, and migraines - yep, like Nolan Patrick migraines - might be a part of it too). And Tanner Pearson. Oh, Tanner Pearson. Tanner Pearson had a hand injury in November, immediately got surgery, and the Canucks said he'd be out 4 to 6 weeks. Fast forward to January 12, Pearson is undergoing his third surgery and is not expected to return for the season. When Quinn Hughes is asked about this, he says "it wasn't handled right," essentially blowing a whistle to point to some form of incompetence from either the Canucks management, their doctors, or both. The Canucks launch an internal investigation and clear themselves; the NHLPA is also reportedly looking into it. Currently, it's been reported that Pearson has undergone 6-7 surgeries on the hand in question (possibly due to infection) and is working to regain quality of life. Yikes. Here's The Hockey Guy (Shannon), a known Canucks fan, lamenting this:

Okay, let's move on from that depressing stuff with a Stereax story. See, one of my very first hockey memories was seeing Thatcher Demko clutch up for the Canucks in the 2020 playoffs against the Golden Knights. That man was ice cold. I was telling myself "no WAY he doesn't become a star tendie". And then... Vancouver broke him. Oops, I think we're back in depression territory. But the stats don't lie - he went from 64 games (33-22-7) played last year with a .915 save percentage to 32 games (14-14-4) played and a .901. Oh, and he got injured with a lower-body injury (LBI) on December 1, was out "6 weeks" apparently got reinjured in training February 17, and was out another 10 days? Yeah. I mean, the defensive structure in front of him being Quinn Hughes Playing 30 Minutes a Night doesn't help. Plus the whole botching injuries? Not a good look for the Canucks organization. Hell, players could have been knowingly playing injured or hiding injuries because they didn't want to deal with that shitshow.

Speaking of the shitshow, guess whose contract is up soon? That's right: Elias Pettersson is an RFA after 23-24! Think he's going to sign a long-term deal with this joke of a franchise? Or do you think he's going to pull a Matthew Tkachuk and essentially demand to be sign-and-traded? I wouldn't blame him if it's the latter, especially considering the lack of, well, anything the Canucks have.

First off, they have no prospects. Their farm system is nonexistent. They have one of the worst prospect pools in the NHL. And when they're not busy trading away their picks to acquire aging veterans, they're drafting badly. This is an old article, but it really, really drives the point home.

Okay, but like, the Pens and Bruins and Avs and Lightning have no prospect pools and they're still good, right? Well, yes, but actually no. See, the reason those teams have no prospects is because they're pushing all in for more Cup runs with their current cores. The Bruins traded away the future for one last Cup run in 2023. The Pens are close to doing the same for 2024. Ditto the Avs and Lightning. The Canucks are not these teams. Simply put, they're just not competitive. Even if they somehow eke out a wildcard next year (doubtful, given Vegas, Edmonton, LA, and Seattle are all also in the Pacific, but maybe it goes 5/3 and the Nucks get WC2), they lack the depth, defense, goaltending, and honestly offense too to make a deep run. That team is fundamentally flawed at its very core. It needs to rebuild, and rebuild properly this time. But the owners won't allow it.

Speaking of owners, the Canucks' owner, Francesco Aquilini, is a REAL piece of shit. Not only does he refuse to rebuild, he's as crooked of a "businessman" as you'll meet, routinely stiffing workers out of wages, raising rents to exorbitant levels (creating homeless seniors), causing the death of children due to negligence, and more. Wanna hear about the child abuse allegations?

And if none of this was bad enough, look at how they treated Bruce Boudreau. The Canucks were supposed to can him for months in favor of Rick Tocchet due to bad results, but left him to flounder like a sitting duck. Media was asking him what were his future plans for the team when he basically had the pink slip in his hands. Even if Bruce was trying to be a good sport about it, cracking jokes ("See you tomorrow - I hope"), this is no goddamn way to treat your coach. If you're going to fire the man, fire him and move on. (At least the fans understood what they were losing...) And of course this impacted the players down the final stretch of Boudreau's tenure - aware every day that your coach is going to be fired but not knowing when? That'll do a mental number on any team. Christ...

TL;DR - The Canucks are so fucked up that the cap isn't even their biggest issue. They're managing that okay enough, I guess, but they're mismanaging the team to hell and back so even good cap maneuvering means nothing.

If you want to know more, I recommend you watch the UrinatingTree videos on the Nucks. I took most of the main ideas of this from there. And ask your local Canucks fan friend if they need any support, I think they'll appreciate it. :)

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #stereducation #vancouver canucks