#stereducation

[stereax]

Waivers: The Basics

Having noticed that many of my mutuals, as well as hockeyblr at large, are unsure of what exactly the NHL's waiver system means and how it works, I've endeavored to write up a little bit of a primer on waivers to make it easier to understand. Meet me under the cut to learn more!

What are waivers?

Put most simply, waivers are a process that occurs when a team says to a player, "We don't want you in the NHL anymore, we're sending you to the AHL". Because of the CBA's (Collective Bargaining Agreement) Article 13, before they can do this, they have to put the player on the waiver wire, which is essentially a 24-hour-long period where any other team that wants that player to play for them in the NHL can claim them. The purpose of the waiver wire is to ensure that teams don't unfairly stash NHL-caliber players in the AHL, thereby paying them lesser salaries (this is the most important part - AHL salaries are generally about a tenth of NHL salaries) and not allowing them to play NHL games. Players that may not be getting a fair shot on one team can move to another, where they can be used more effectively - for instance, Eeli Tolvanen was waived by Nashville, picked up by Seattle, and now plays a key role on Seattle's third line. In fact, he scored Seattle's first-ever goal in the playoffs!

What happens once a player is put on the waiver wire?

If another team claims the player, they are claimed on waivers and are transferred to the other team. Notably, the other team must have the appropriate cap and roster space necessary to claim the player. An example here is Kasperi Kapanen, who was placed on waivers by Pittsburgh and was claimed by St Louis. His cap hit of $3.2m may have been prohibitive for other teams who could have wanted to claim him.

If multiple teams try to claim the player, the player goes to the team that submitted a claim which is the worst in the standings - if it's before November 1st of a new season year, it goes to the team that finished worst in the standings the year before, but if it's after November 1st, it goes to the team that is currently worst in the standings. Take Lassi Thomson, who was placed on waivers by Ottawa and claimed by Anaheim. If, for example, Toronto also submitted a claim, they would not have been awarded Thomson, as Anaheim has the worse standing.

If no other team claims the player, they clear waivers. When they do so, they can be reassigned to the NHL team's affiliate AHL team. Notably, not everyone who clears waivers is immediately reassigned - a player who clears waivers can stay with the NHL team instead (for example, if another player just got injured). They can be sent down to the AHL at a later time - they do not have to go through the waivers process again if they have played less than 10 NHL games (cumulative) or been on the roster for less than 30 days (cumulative) from the last time they cleared waivers. This can be used to a savvy GM's advantage to avoid putting players on the waiver wire.

Why is everyone getting waived right now?

At the beginning of the preseason, every player with an NHL contract, whether it be one-way (NHL only) or two-way (NHL and AHL), is invited to that team's training camp. This places them on the NHL preseason roster for that team. As training camp goes on and players get cut, they then must pass through waivers to go to the AHL. Unless, of course, they're waiver exempt.

What is waiver exemption and why is it important?

So you might already have noticed an issue with the waiver system - it's terrible for younger players. If solely the waiver rules we've discussed above existed, every player being sent to the AHL would have to go through waivers. This would include prospects who are signed to an NHL ELC (entry-level contract) but didn't make the cut for the season. Obviously, this is bad for teams - imagine drafting players who you know will be good for you in 2 or 3 years and then losing them all to the waiver wire. This is why waiver exemption exists.

Waiver exemption, to keep it simple, is a protection that certain players have that means they do not have to go through the waivers process to be reassigned to the AHL. The specific details of waiver exemption are a little complicated - let's take a look at the table to make it make more sense.

This table is either/or and is defined by the age when their NHL ELC was signed. A skater who signed their ELC as an 18-year-old is waiver exempt for either 5 years or 160 games played (including playoff games) at the NHL level. A skater who signed at 21 is exempt for either 3 years or 80 NHL games. Goalies have different requirements than skaters because they generally take longer to develop and don't play as many games.

There is a fairly common misconception that all players on their ELCs are automatically waiver exempt. This is false. The second a player hits the amount of games played for their age, they are immediately no longer waiver exempt. Usually, this doesn't occur until after the ELC is over, as most ELC players deal with injuries and healthy scratches, as well as not generally being given the reins to play on the NHL roster for the entire season. One notable example that disproves the "ELC means waiver exempt" conception is Dawson Mercer from New Jersey. Mercer signed his ELC as a 19-year-old in December of 2020. He has played all 82 games in the past 2 seasons (2021-22 & 2022-23) plus 12 playoff games for a total of 176 NHL games played. Under the games requirements, he is now no longer exempt from waivers, despite having one whole year left on his ELC.

For the 25+ category, upon playing a single NHL game, the player is waiver exempt for that entire season and that entire season only. Andrei Kuzmenko from Vancouver is a good example of that - last season, he signed his one-year ELC with Vancouver as a 27-year-old and could have been sent to the AHL at any time without going through waivers. (He was not, needless to say.)

There is one very important exception to the table: if an 18- or 19-year-old player plays 11 or more games with an NHL team in a single season, their waiver exemption is automatically cropped. For that season, and the next two, the player is waiver exempt, but after that, they are no longer exempt. This extends to the next three if the player in question is a goalie and not a skater. (To make it easier to understand, it's as if they jumped into the 20-year-old category.) However, 18- and 19-year-old prospects generally only play 9 games maximum at the NHL level in order to allow for the entry-level slide, allowing the contract to "slide" forward a year, letting teams keep the player on the ELC for an extra year and thus save money.

Are there any other ways a player can play in the AHL without going through waivers or being waiver exempt?

Yes, actually! There are two main exceptions - they're for conditioning loans.

First, what is a conditioning loan? A conditioning loan is a short-term reassignment to the AHL. There are two types of conditioning loans: the standard conditioning loan and the LTIR conditioning loan.

A standard conditioning loan, specified under the CBA 13.8, occurs when a player agrees to head down to the AHL for a few games to "wipe off the dust" on their game, so to speak. They're often used by players who have ended up as perennial healthy scratches on their NHL teams, so that they're able to jump in if there's an injury or other issue. Standard conditioning loans can last up to 14 days. One example of a standard conditioning loan is Shane Wright, who was sent to the AHL by Seattle very early in the season for conditioning, partially to bypass the requirement that the NHL has with the major junior CHL that would have required him to go back to the CHL were he officially reassigned from Seattle. Another is Nathan Beaulieu, who was sent to the AHL by Anaheim in January for a four-game stint.

An LTIR conditioning loan, specified under the CBA 13.9, occurs when a player coming off of LTIR agrees to head down to the AHL for a few games to "wipe off the dust" on their game, so to speak. These loans can only last 6 days or 3 games, whichever comes later, and the idea is to be able to figure out whether a player is able to return to form or requires more time to heal properly. For example, Travis Dermott was sent to the AHL by Vancouver in December to evaluate whether he was back to form after a concussion sustained in the preseason. He played one game in the AHL, then drew back into Vancouver's lineup for eleven games before going back on IR for the rest of the season due to the concussion repercussions. Notably, a team can only use one LTIR conditioning loan for each time a player is on LTIR.

What is emergency recall and why does it make a player waiver exempt?

Emergency recall occurs when a player on a team's NHL lineup is injured and the team can no longer ice a full squad because of it. (As a reminder, each team must carry 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and 2 goalies. Usually, teams keep an extra forward and defenseman around as a healthy scratch in case of injuries, but some teams are pressed against the cap and cannot carry extra players.) In this case, they can call an AHL player (or multiple, at times) up on an "emergency" basis to fill in during the time that the NHL player is out. Once the NHL player is healthy again, the AHL player can either be transferred to a regular recall or gets sent down to their AHL team again. One example here is Akira Schmid, who was bouncing back and forth between Utica and New Jersey on emergency recalls every few weeks because Mackenzie Blackwood, one of New Jersey's two goaltenders, was constantly getting hurt.

It makes sense, then, why emergency recall would grant a player temporary waiver exemption status - it would be awful to have to recall a player from the AHL, have them in the NHL for a little bit, and then have to send them through waivers and get claimed when your roster player is healthy. However, if an emergency recall player plays in at least 10 NHL games, he loses his waiver exempt status under emergency recall (other forms of waiver exemption still apply).

What are unconditional waivers?

Unconditional waivers are different from regular waivers in what they do. Passing through unconditional waivers does not send you to the AHL. Instead, they are used by teams that want to buy out or terminate players' contracts, completely giving up their rights to the players. Players placed on unconditional waivers are almost never claimed because of this - only two players have ever been claimed off unconditional waivers.

Okay, hold on - what's the difference between a buyout and a termination?

A termination occurs when a player's contract is terminated. The player severs all ties to a team and does not continue to be paid by the team. The team does not incur any cap penalties from termination. There are two main types of termination.

The first type of termination is mutually-agreed-upon termination. In the case of Filip Zadina, who was recently terminated by Detroit, he made it clear that he would refuse to report to the AHL after being sent down on regular waivers. The team and Zadina then proceeded to terminate the contract so that Zadina would be free to negotiate a contract with another NHL team instead of playing for Detroit's AHL team, and so that Detroit would not incur any cap penalties from buying out Zadina. Another example is Lukas Sedlak, whose contract was terminated by Philadelphia when he made it clear to the team that he wanted to return to Europe to play. Philadelphia put Sedlak on unconditional waivers, terminated the contract, and Sedlak soon returned to his native Czechia to play for Pardubice.

The other, rarer type of termination is for material breach. Material breach termination is exemplified by Alex Galchenyuk, whose contract was terminated by Arizona after they became aware of the intoxicated driving incident involving Galchenyuk. Essentially, material breach is used when players are acting illegally, either against the law of the United States/Canada, or against the terms of their contract. The reason these terminations are so rare is twofold: Not only are hockey players generally going to try to avoid breaking the law, when they do, the player's association is usually going to investigate and file appeals and the like to try to secure their players the highest possible settlement despite the termination (and set a precedent so other teams are not encouraged to terminate contracts for material breach).

On the other hand, a buyout occurs when a player is released by a team, but the player continues to be paid by the team as per their contract. The team incurs cap penalties from buyouts - 1/3 of the contract value if the player is younger than 26 at the time of the buy-out, 2/3 of the value if the player is 26 or order. This penalty is spread across double the years left on the contract.

An aside - this is also where the idea of a "buyout-proof" contract comes in. A buyout-proof contract contains most of the salary being paid in the form of signing bonuses, which are paid in full even if the contract is bought out. (These contracts are also considered "lockout-proof", as, again, the signing bonus must be paid even if there is a lockout and no hockey is being played.) As an example of this, take a look at Auston Matthews's extension:

If the Leafs try to buy this contract out, they'd have to pay Matthews the entirety of the signing bonuses as well as 2/3 of the base salary, making the cap savings incredibly marginal and just not worth it to buy out. Thus, it's buyout-proof.

Is that everything I need to know about waivers?

I think so! If you have any other questions, please drop me a line in my inbox or via DMs - I'll be happy to explain more to you! :D

#stereanalysis #stereducation #hockey primer #waivers primer

[stereax]

likes and reblogs highly appreciated here!!! spent a ton of time on this, hope it shows!

(and kudos to the discord crew who put up with me spamming them with pages of this and giving me the thumbs-up about it - love you all!!!)

let's go devils!!!

#new jersey devils #nj devils #devils primer #hockey primer #nhl #devils lb #devs lb #stereanalysis #stereducation

[stereax]

is there a reason why Carolina is losing all their affiliates???

Other than being assholes to Erik Haula?

Okay, but in all seriousness, there's a short answer and a long one.

The short answer is two words long: Pyotr Kochetkov.

The long answer? Meet me under the cut.

Alright, hi there. So to answer this question fully, we need to talk about the AHL in depth. The AHL, or American Hockey League, is the second-highest league of North American pro hockey, under the NHL. Most people tend to believe it's just "where prospects play before they hit the NHL". This is... only a part of the story.

There are 32 teams in the AHL to match 32 NHL teams. The idea there is that every NHL team would have an AHL affiliate - the most recent expansion, for example, the Coachella Valley Firebirds, is the AHL affiliate for the newest NHL team, the Seattle Kraken. Many of these teams are owned by the same group as owns the NHL team - Harris Blitzer, for example, owns both the New Jersey Devils and the Utica Comets. Others don't - the AHL's Charlotte Checkers, for instance, are owned by Michael Kahn, whereas their NHL affiliate, the Florida Panthers, is owned by Sunrise Sports (aka Vincent Viola).

Why is this important? Well, if you're an NHL team that owns your AHL team, you can let that AHL team leak money. You're turning a good profit on the NHL team, so you don't have to make your AHL team economically viable on its own - you just put it in as a massive tax write-off and go on with your day. Thus, you can put all of your AHL team's resources into developing your AHL players to get ready to play at the NHL level. Of course you sign some vets and such of your own, maybe get a few undrafted guys for the AHL team too, but generally, an NHL-owned AHL team's sole purpose is to develop NHL players. Winning the Calder Cup (the AHL equivalent to the Stanley Cup, not to be confused with the Calder Memorial Trophy given to the best NHL rookie) is just gravy on top.

Contrast this to independently-owned AHL teams, where this is not the case. For these teams, making money is paramount. How do you make money? When you win. Fun fact - the Chicago Wolves, incidentally, used to be televised on main channels partially as a fuck you to Bill Wirtz, who didn't let the Chicago Blackhawks' home games be televised, presumably to drive ticket sales. The Wolves saw that and pounced on the opportunity to make some cash. So if nothing else, love them for sticking it to the Hawks. You can still watch Wolves games on My50, it seems, if you've got that channel, as well as AHL streaming options.

But back to independently-owned AHL teams before I go on my daily anti-Hawks crusade. You want to make money. You do that when you win. When you make the postseason. When you win in the postseason. Independently-owned AHL teams want to win, not necessarily develop for the NHL. So when your NHL team keeps taking your best player away for weeks and then giving him back... you get annoyed.

Let's now talk about the ECHL and the Norfolk Admirals. Thankfully, this is going to be a lot simpler. The ECHL, unlike the AHL, has only 28 teams. This means 4 NHL teams don't have an ECHL team. In addition, very few, if any, ECHL teams are owned by their NHL affiliates. This further incentivizes them to play for profit (winning the Kelly Cup, the ECHL version of the Stanley Cup) instead of development. On top of this, relatively few ECHL players actually make it to the NHL. ECHL affiliates change fairly frequently, especially due to many of the teams folding because of financial issues (most recently the Brampton Beast, Manchester Monarchs, and Quad City Mallards). So if an ECHL team decides to drop its NHL affiliate, or vice versa, there are four other suitors, all of whom would probably want to pay the ECHL team decent money to be their associate. For the Admirals, it's easy - they see the Canes lose their AHL affiliate and decide they'd rather take the Jets' offer instead, whether it be for the money (Carolina's supposedly notoriously stingy) or for the security. It's just really fucking funny that it happens at the same time Carolina loses their AHL team. Get fucked lol.

Now let's play Chicago Wolves Simulator. You are Don Levin and Buddy Meyers, the Wolves' owners. Your goal is to win the Calder Cup or at least come pretty damn close so you can pay the bills. You have a good team - hell, you won the Calder last year! - but your best asset is this star goaltender named Pyotr Kochetkov. When Koochie's in net, you usually win because he bails out your team. When he isn't there to help you win, you kind of don't. Now, Carolina's going through its own issues in net, so they keep calling Koochie up and down. And, as previously mentioned, you kind of suck without Koochie. To be fair, you're not all that great with him, but you suck without him. And you have no control over when he goes up to Carolina, even just to sit on the bench.

You miss the playoffs by one point. One. And your three-year contract with the Canes is up. What do you do?

Waddell Young, GM of the Wolves, says their philosophy and the Canes' fundamentally differed. The Wolves develop and win. Winning develops, to them. The Canes wanted the Wolves to focus solely on development. Not winning. So, when their deal with the Canes was up, the Wolves said "no thanks, we're not going to continue this, we're going independent". This decision makes them the first non-NHL affiliated team in almost 30 years. Now, this isn't to say all independently-owned AHL teams are doomed to fail in partnerships because of divergent philosophies. Look at the Hershey Bears and the Washington Capitals for a prime example of that - the Bears are one of the best teams in the AHL and have won four Calder Cups with the Caps as their affiliates since their affiliation began in 2005. But the Wolves were quite unhappy with the Canes, and so the two split. Also notable is that the Canes have also poisoned the waters with who should be their local AHL affiliate, the Charlotte Checkers, to the point where the Checkers affiliated with the Panthers instead. So... there's that.

So what can the Canes now do with non-roster players? They can affiliate with another AHL team (co-affiliation); one instance of this was when the Seattle Kraken affiliated with the Charlotte Checkers in 21-22 because the Coachella Valley Firebirds weren't yet ready. Supposedly the plan is to get an affiliate for 24-25. But what do they do this year? Especially if they can't find an affiliate to share, which seems more and more likely as the summer drags on? Well, you can't sign players to two-way deals with the Wolves anymore, so you can't really keep veterans around in the AHL to call up if needed. So you... sign nine defensemen to NHL contracts and carry them on the roster at all times. Yep. Don Waddell, Canes GM, has basically stated outright that his roster is probably going to have to carry 22 or 23 players at all times to be sure to have replacements in case of injury. And your prospects? They either go to Europe, where they're basically inaccessible for the whole year, or you loan them to other AHL clubs. Waddell has said plans are in place with several teams to send 2 or 3 players each to several different AHL clubs. For your youngest, they go back to major junior in the CHL and related leagues. Same for your veterans - if you want to keep them, you'll have to sign them one-way (I believe) and then loan them down to scattered AHL teams across the league. Prospects who you could have signed to play in the AHL and develop? You're probably going to have to let them go to free agency (see: Kevin Wall, leading player for Penn State and Carolina draft pick, who just inked a deal with the Milwaukee Admirals, AHL affiliate of the Nashville Predators). And then you can send your worse prospects to your ECHL tea- wait. Oops. They just lost that too. Can't do that either. Well, shit.

And remember, one of the Canes' biggest assets is their system of play (with strong defense) that they execute well. The Wolves needed to teach their players the Canes' system and prepare them so the jump from AHL to NHL wouldn't be that tough. The Canes put their coaches on the Wolves for that purpose (the Wolves have since cleaned house and instated their own). Loaning your players to another AHL team? Why would that team be incentivized to teach your player(s) the system? So now even when you're calling up someone to play for the Canes, you have no idea how well they know the system and no idea how well they can play in it.

This now begs the other question - how will the Wolves fill their roster? Well, they've got options. Generally, an AHL team takes the prospects of its NHL affiliate and then fills the rest of the roster with AHL veteran free agents that the AHL team signs to AHL-only deals. But without an NHL team, it's a smidge more complicated, or perhaps easier. Firstly, other NHL teams can loan their prospects to the Wolves instead of their own AHL teams if they consider the Wolves better at developing them, for instance. The Wolves can now also sign whatever free agent players they find roaming around that could be a good fit for their team - undrafted college players, good ECHL players that can't seem to get called up enough, AHL veterans, players on European teams (especially Russians who might want the chance to get the fuck out of Russia) and so on. These free agent players could see the Wolves as a stable AHL team that can pay solid money (the AHL doesn't have a cap) with a strong chance at contending for the Calder as well as a possible stepping stone to an NHL contract. The Wolves also don't have to worry about these free agents taking ice time away from the Canes' prospects, who would need to be prioritized under an affiliation, which would also be a strong incentive for AHL free agent veterans to sign with them - they'd be able to get a truly fair chance, unlike under an affiliate system where prospects are the priority and free agents are generally playing fewer (and worse) minutes.

And remember - Chicago just drafted Bedard. The city's getting back into hockey and Hawks tickets are expensive. Want to watch some quality hockey on the cheap? Why not come to Wolves games! They're only 18 miles away from the Hawks, too!

TL;DR stan the Wolves for rejecting the system. Canes Suck.

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #stereducation #carolina hurricanes #chicago wolves #norfolk admirals #ahl #echl

[stereax]

likes and reblogs highly appreciated here!!! spent a ton of time on this, hope it shows!

let's go devils!!!

#new jersey devils #nj devils #devils primer #hockey primer #nhl #stanley cup playoffs #scp lb #devs lb #devils lb #i'd tag all the players but I'm not that obnoxious #but yeah please give me the Internet Attention to make me feel like I Did A Thing here #stereducation #stereanalysis

[stereax]

Can you explain the erik-canes drama please 😚

Yeah, no problem, anon! Meet me under the read more for the details :)

So last night we found Haulzy wearing a "Canes Suck" bracelet -

(let the record show I posted this FIRST before the Canes fans found it because I am speedier than them and also much better in every single way 😉)

Now, you may be asking yourself, "why is a grown, 32-year-old hockey player of a man wearing a bracelet that says Canes Suck on it?" That is a WONDERFUL question. First, let's look at Haula's career.

Erik Haula was drafted in the seventh round by Minnesota. He played for the Wild for a few years before, well, the Wild essentially sold him to the Golden Knights in the expansion draft - they basically sent Vegas Alex Tuch (one of their better prospects) for a third and "expansion draft considerations", meaning the Knights would choose Haula in the draft and not a player like Matt Dumba or Marco Scandella, who were more vital to the Wild's core.

Haula plays for the Knights for two years - he's part of the team that wills itself into the Cup finals in 2017-18. In 2018-19, Haula goes down early, getting injured in a game against Toronto that keeps him out the rest of the season.

Vegas trades him to Carolina three days before his wedding. It's a Kelly McCrimmon move - and if you know the Knights, you know what that means (trading fan favorites for better returns). By all accounts, Haula loved Vegas, so he's going into this Carolina thing with some apprehension, especially because this is the last year on his contract. If he puts up good numbers, he's going to get a payday. If not, well, probably not. Remember, he had a career year in 2017-18. He wants to prove he's got what it takes.

Alright. He gets there, gets hurt for a few games with an LBI, comes back, gets hurt again and is out for a few weeks. At the time he gets his second injury, he's got 11 points in 16 games, with 8 goals, one less than team leaders Svechnikov, Aho, and Hamilton (all of whom played more games). So the dude's playing stellar, but then gets banged up. He slots back into the lineup just before Christmas.

And here's where things go south. You see, Haula and his wife, Kristen, were planning to start a family. Kristen got pregnant probably around August, given that when Haula posted the baby announcement on his Instagram he noted a May due date.

The baby is found without a heartbeat 12/30/19.

Erik Haula plays the next day and pots a goal and an assist.

It's a second-trimester miscarriage, which means it's likely Kristen had to deliver a stillborn baby.

He points to the sky after the goal, honoring his lost daughter.

It's around this time that relations between Haula and the Canes begin to take a nosedive.

(Fun fact, contrary to what Canes fans will tell you, Haula's play only suffered significantly after the miscarriage. In the four games in December he played before the miscarriage, he got 2 goals and 2 assists, so in 20 games he had 15 points which is nothing to scoff at for a middle-sixer. Despite being tossed around a bit in the lineup, he was still producing very well.)

Reports of exactly what was going on are incredibly difficult to find and are generally tainted by the biases of whoever writes them. It's stated that Haula was, in some way or another, "forced" to play the day after the miscarriage and never given time to emotionally recover from it. He gets scratched a few times (and again, it's a contract year for him, so ice time is exceedingly valuable). There are rumors of a "shouting match" between Haula and head coach Rod Brind'Amour. Supposedly, he's not participating in after-game workouts that Brind'Amour makes the team do (for recovery) and thus "doesn't fit the culture of the team", "has no respect", and "is a jerk". (Which... we'd prefer him do work on the ice, thanks???) Other rumors say he's "bullying" the rookies on the Canes (which have never been corroborated by a reliable source nor been backed up by similar actions anywhere else). Kristen makes vague posts on Instagram that Canes fans interpret as being derogatory towards the team - Reddit widely quotes one as "Don't allow your loyalty to become slavery. If they aren't appreciating what you bring to the table, let them eat alone."

So Haula gets dealt at the deadline to the Panthers as part of a deal for Vincent Trocheck, after playing only 41 games for the Canes. And he journeys around the NHL for a few years after that before finding his home in New Jersey.

Ever since then, the Canes have absolutely haunted Haula. The "1-14" thing Canes fans put on pictures of him? It's because, since leaving the Canes, he's won once at their home rink (PNC)... and lost 14 times. In three consecutive years, his teams have lost to the Canes each time in the playoffs (Predators, Bruins, then Devils, respectively). He's the first player that happened to, where he played for three different teams and each year lost to the same team.

Canes fans boo him every time he touches the ice - for them, he's a traitor that shit-talked Raleigh and the team and backs it up by playing like a goon when he's against them.

So if there's one person on the whole Devils roster who deserves to wear a Canes Suck bracelet, it's Uncle Haula.

Go off, king.

📿👑

~ [ Addendum 1: Pasta ] ~

David Pastrnak, much like Erik Haula, also lost a child - his son died only six days old. I'm sure, when Pasta accidentally ran into Antti Raanta on the ice during the 2022 playoffs, they didn't go on his socials and make disgusting comments about his child's death...

Oh? They did? Well then.

Canes fans will tell you they only had the utmost of respect for Haula during his miscarriage and never used it against him, both during and after his Canes tenure. Somehow, I doubt that.

But maybe that's just me.

~ [ Addendum 2: Signs ] ~

When Canes fans make signs like this about you, it's understandable why you get upset.

The sign reads "It's me. Haula. I'm the problem. It's me. Hi everybody agrees", with cutouts of Haula's former teams' logos pasted on top.

What's so strange is that no Panthers, Bruins, Knights, Predators, or Wild fans seem to have a problem with Haula. It's only the Canes fans calling him "locker room cancer". Jack Hughes disagrees with this assessment.

Coincidentally, the "locker room cancer" charge was also famously said about Dougie Hamilton...

Oh, hey, look, some Canes fans behind the Devils' bench, just behind Jack, made a sign! I'm sure it's nice and respectful :)

Wait, is that Ellen Weinberg-Hughes next to a man whose face is photoshopped to be Sebastian Aho?

The sign says "Jack Your Mom's A Ho", by the way.

And several Canes players signed it.

"Bunch of jerks" is right.

So if you wonder why Jack Hughes beat the shit out of Sebastian Aho... look no further.

~ [ Addendum 3: Culture ] ~

Once again, I point you to this post by eugeniosuarez -

1 is about Jordan Staal, 2 and 3 are about Tony DeAngelo, if you're unsure.

Yeah, I think I see the culture problem here. Just to be clear, this one, right?

Glad we're on the same page 👍

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #stereducation #not your typical analysis but still #uncle haula #erik haula #nj devils #new jersey devils #carolina hurricanes

[stereax]

Hello! I am writing a paper for a law school class on transnational courts about the IIHF and NHL-Russia player transfers. I’m starting with the Fedotov mess and looking for a thesis from there. I have found great stuff on litigation from the early 2000s and player transfer agreements with other leagues under previous CBAs but very little current info. I’m also looking for any updates on Fedotov since the IIHF’s ruling in August and Russia ignoring it. I know he’s playing in the KHL now. Did the Flyers just let it go because there isn’t anything they can do? Any help/ideas/resources would be much appreciated!!

I love you for this, so so so much. You've combined just about all of my interests in one ask. I'll give you the very concise version of it here, for public consumption. You might know most of this already, and I'm sorry if this doesn't help that much - but DM me for more info. I can and will go searching with you. Hell, if you want, you can "interview" me via Discord or via DMs here and cite me as a source. (I've done that a lot with my friends for papers hahaha, asked them their thoughts and then cited it.) Under the cut, as always! 💜

As you're probably aware, the IIHF is the leading organizer of ice hockey stuff around the world. I believe it's them that organize the Worlds and World Juniors, and they also have international standards for things like rink size. (Of course, the NHL plays on a nonstandard rink, so...) Importantly, however, the IIHF has very little legal power. It is difficult for them to fully enforce their decisions - especially when it comes to a country that won't listen.

Ivan Fedotov was a seventh-round selection of the Philadelphia Flyers in 2015. He has been playing primarily in the KHL since. In 2021-22, he backstopped CSKA Moscow to the Gagarin Cup (the KHL's version of the Stanley Cup) in what was widely considered a "breakout" year. Following this, in his last year of eligibility, Philadelphia signed him to a one-year entry-level contract (ELC), with the intent of bringing him to Philly and seeing if he could be a good enough goaltender at the NHL level (presumably to be the backup to Carter Hart) or even the AHL level. This is where things get screwy.

Fedotov is arrested shortly after the ELC is signed under the "charge" of avoiding the Russian army draft (understand that this was most likely a politically motivated arrest). He spends the next year at a fairly remote Russian military base, only communicating with the Flyers once in this entire year. He was allowed to continue training part-time, but not to the level he could otherwise have. So the ELC slides one year.

In the summer of 2023, Philly tries to get Fedotov overseas again... only to find that he's signed a two-year deal with CSKA Moscow. Now, the NHL and KHL used to have transfer agreements, but the NHL cut these agreements after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, Fedotov has two contracts, and he clearly can't play in two places at once. What happens?

The IIHF steps in, and decides that Fedotov's ELC with Philly should be honored - and that he and CSKA Moscow were not allowed to sign a contract with the ELC in place. They ban Fedotov from playing for 4 months and CSKA Moscow from being able to sign non-domestic players (international transfers) for one year.

Before I continue, something to be aware of with sports in Russia: certain teams are sponsored by the state and oligarchs far more than others. This is true with Russian soccer and also true with Russian football. CSKA Moscow, in particular, is one of the most-supported teams and is notable for its ties with the Russian army. Its dominance during the Soviet era was because it could literally draft the best hockey players (and I mean draft as in draft like for the army). It's currently owned by Rosneft, an oil company that's majority owned by the Russian government. (SKA Saint Petersburg is another of these highly-supported teams, for what that's worth.)

So CSKA Moscow, sort of predictably, flips off the IIHF. And starts Fedotov. In their first game. The IIHF can't really do much - it hits CSKA Moscow with a 5000 CHF fine (laughable) and threatens to refer it, and Fedotov, to the IIHF Disciplinary Board if they keep doing it. They keep doing it. Of course. The KHL's president claims that the 4-month ban threatens Fedotov's Russian constitutional right to work and that they will thusly disregard the ruling. As of November 2nd, Fedotov is still playing in the KHL - he just recorded a shutout, actually.

The Flyers really can't do much, outside of pressure the IIHF, which has little concrete power, to levy more punishments (and the IIHF has gone quiet about this too). Philly could try to, theoretically, smuggle Fedotov out of Russia a la Malkin, but you can only imagine what the Russian government will do to Fedotov and his family if he tries to defect. Especially because Fedotov's what, 26? 27? And goalies don't tend to have a long shelf life. Even if he came to the States, and played some games in the NHL, would those precious few years be worth the wellbeing of him and his family? Probably not. Again, since the NHL and KHL no longer have a transfer agreement, Philly and CSKA Moscow would have to come to terms on their own - and CSKA Moscow isn't keen on giving up their current star tendy to play in likely the AHL.

And remember, Philly also has Matvei Michkov now. Whose father recently died under "mysterious circumstances". And it's rumored those circumstances had to do with Michkov's father trying to terminate his son's KHL contract to send him to America sooner. That's also a factor here that must be considered - is it better to play nice with the KHL now and give up on Fedotov to be able to bring Michkov stateside?

The situation is incredibly complicated; unfortunately, there seems to be no easy end in sight, and probably very little chance of Fedotov seeing NHL ice in his career. The war in Ukraine also complicates this, and that is currently locked at a stalemate, so... good luck there.

Alright, that's my little lecture. If you need anything else, do DM me! I can see what else I can do as well :)

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #stereducation #ivan fedotov #philadelphia flyers #cska moscow

[stereax]

What’s up with the Canucks? I know their cap situation has historically been tight - do you think it got better this offseason?

The cap situation is the LEAST of the Canucks' worries, honestly. That whole team is a dumpster fire.

More under the cut. Pardon the delay in getting this out, but this is a long one!

So first off, the cap situation is bad. It honestly looks better than it is, mostly because of the LTIR. Plus, there's a ton of players whose contracts are expiring next offseason, most notable of which are Pettersson and Beauvillier that the Nucks really need to keep. The main problem is, management keeps swinging at bad players and overpaying them, then floundering on contracts for good players.

So, uh, that Bo Horvat trade, huh? Let's start with that. You signed JT Miller, a 30 year old, to a 7 year extension that would end when he's 37, for $8m a year with NMCs for the first few years and M-NTCs for the rest, going off a career year that he regressed from (predictably). This is a guy who we know has some character issues as well (see: him screaming at Collin Delia, his goalie teammate, for being unsure whether to leave the crease). And you traded your captain away to make the cap work for him? What did you even get for Horvat anyway? Beauvillier, Raty, and a top-12 protected first? Why didn't you trade Miller instead?

Speaking of a swing and a mess, Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Got signed to an 8x8.25, got traded from Arizona to Vancouver, and... got bought out. Now they're gonna have to deal with that on their books for eight whole years. Just another Benning-era flop. I guess it's still better than paying him for that amount, though.

They did pick up some guys, though, with the cap space they acquired - Teddy Blueger, Pius Suter, Carson Soucy. Oh, and extended Kuzmenko. But none of them move the needle enough. None of those players are going to propel this frankly lost team into the playoffs.

Now let's look at the LTIR list, or should I say LTIRetirement list. We've got Tucker Poolman, who played a total of three games last year and promptly disappeared off the map (and NOBODY knows what's wrong with him - and I asked! - but it's speculated to be concussion-related and possibly career-ending, and migraines - yep, like Nolan Patrick migraines - might be a part of it too). And Tanner Pearson. Oh, Tanner Pearson. Tanner Pearson had a hand injury in November, immediately got surgery, and the Canucks said he'd be out 4 to 6 weeks. Fast forward to January 12, Pearson is undergoing his third surgery and is not expected to return for the season. When Quinn Hughes is asked about this, he says "it wasn't handled right," essentially blowing a whistle to point to some form of incompetence from either the Canucks management, their doctors, or both. The Canucks launch an internal investigation and clear themselves; the NHLPA is also reportedly looking into it. Currently, it's been reported that Pearson has undergone 6-7 surgeries on the hand in question (possibly due to infection) and is working to regain quality of life. Yikes. Here's The Hockey Guy (Shannon), a known Canucks fan, lamenting this:

Okay, let's move on from that depressing stuff with a Stereax story. See, one of my very first hockey memories was seeing Thatcher Demko clutch up for the Canucks in the 2020 playoffs against the Golden Knights. That man was ice cold. I was telling myself "no WAY he doesn't become a star tendie". And then... Vancouver broke him. Oops, I think we're back in depression territory. But the stats don't lie - he went from 64 games (33-22-7) played last year with a .915 save percentage to 32 games (14-14-4) played and a .901. Oh, and he got injured with a lower-body injury (LBI) on December 1, was out "6 weeks" apparently got reinjured in training February 17, and was out another 10 days? Yeah. I mean, the defensive structure in front of him being Quinn Hughes Playing 30 Minutes a Night doesn't help. Plus the whole botching injuries? Not a good look for the Canucks organization. Hell, players could have been knowingly playing injured or hiding injuries because they didn't want to deal with that shitshow.

Speaking of the shitshow, guess whose contract is up soon? That's right: Elias Pettersson is an RFA after 23-24! Think he's going to sign a long-term deal with this joke of a franchise? Or do you think he's going to pull a Matthew Tkachuk and essentially demand to be sign-and-traded? I wouldn't blame him if it's the latter, especially considering the lack of, well, anything the Canucks have.

First off, they have no prospects. Their farm system is nonexistent. They have one of the worst prospect pools in the NHL. And when they're not busy trading away their picks to acquire aging veterans, they're drafting badly. This is an old article, but it really, really drives the point home.

Okay, but like, the Pens and Bruins and Avs and Lightning have no prospect pools and they're still good, right? Well, yes, but actually no. See, the reason those teams have no prospects is because they're pushing all in for more Cup runs with their current cores. The Bruins traded away the future for one last Cup run in 2023. The Pens are close to doing the same for 2024. Ditto the Avs and Lightning. The Canucks are not these teams. Simply put, they're just not competitive. Even if they somehow eke out a wildcard next year (doubtful, given Vegas, Edmonton, LA, and Seattle are all also in the Pacific, but maybe it goes 5/3 and the Nucks get WC2), they lack the depth, defense, goaltending, and honestly offense too to make a deep run. That team is fundamentally flawed at its very core. It needs to rebuild, and rebuild properly this time. But the owners won't allow it.

Speaking of owners, the Canucks' owner, Francesco Aquilini, is a REAL piece of shit. Not only does he refuse to rebuild, he's as crooked of a "businessman" as you'll meet, routinely stiffing workers out of wages, raising rents to exorbitant levels (creating homeless seniors), causing the death of children due to negligence, and more. Wanna hear about the child abuse allegations?

And if none of this was bad enough, look at how they treated Bruce Boudreau. The Canucks were supposed to can him for months in favor of Rick Tocchet due to bad results, but left him to flounder like a sitting duck. Media was asking him what were his future plans for the team when he basically had the pink slip in his hands. Even if Bruce was trying to be a good sport about it, cracking jokes ("See you tomorrow - I hope"), this is no goddamn way to treat your coach. If you're going to fire the man, fire him and move on. (At least the fans understood what they were losing...) And of course this impacted the players down the final stretch of Boudreau's tenure - aware every day that your coach is going to be fired but not knowing when? That'll do a mental number on any team. Christ...

TL;DR - The Canucks are so fucked up that the cap isn't even their biggest issue. They're managing that okay enough, I guess, but they're mismanaging the team to hell and back so even good cap maneuvering means nothing.

If you want to know more, I recommend you watch the UrinatingTree videos on the Nucks. I took most of the main ideas of this from there. And ask your local Canucks fan friend if they need any support, I think they'll appreciate it. :)

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #stereducation #vancouver canucks

[stereax]

How is Toronto doing over there?

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Okay let me explain what Toronto is doing... actually no I can't, what they're doing defies all reason. Or it makes perfect sense, but only if you're on the same cocktail of black tar heroin and crystal meth as Brad Treliving. Here we go!

This is the Leafs' page on CapFriendly. They are currently almost 9 million dollars over the cap. This is the offseason, so nobody really cares right now - teeeechnically you can't go over 10% above the cap during the offseason but nobody's really watching. So why are they over 8.8 million dollars over?

Let's review why.

This is the Leafs' forward core. (There's a league minimum deal for Dylan Gambrell too.)

This is the Leafs' forward core with a $5.5m deal to Bertuzzi, $3m deal to Domi, and $1.35m deal to Reaves. And you'd think "oh, they're trying to get tougher, okay" and they really don't, because Bertuzzi and Domi aren't punchers and Reavo is getting old. Bertuzzi is a more expensive Bunting sidegrade on a one-year deal seeking term in next year's free agent market. Domi is a center whose defensive numbers are in the shitter, also hoping for a better deal next year when the cap jumps up. Reaves is honestly just happy someone signed his ass for three whole years. He's 36. This is his second 35+ contract. Massive red flag.

What you're also going to notice is that Matthews, Marner, and Tavares take the lion's share of the cash - over $33m between the three of them. Nylander adds another $7m to the pot, making each of the Core Four average around $10m. Oh, and Nylander is angling for a pay raise when he hits UFA next year. :) And Matthews hits UFA next year too, good luck icing a 12-forward roster that doesn't have two lines' worth of rookies if you keep both! :)

Compare this to, say, the Devils, who have their cap situation under control. How the Devils work is they rely on everyone taking a discount for the benefit of the team (or just signing them to "overpays" before they get good and make the contracts worth it, like Jack Hughes). In the same $40m as the Core Four, the Devils have Timo Meier, Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Tyler Toffoli, and Erik Haula. An entire top six. And I'm not even counting Dawson Mercer because he's still on his ELC and that would just be unfair.

There's a saying that "you can't win a Cup with a $10m player". Jack Eichel proved us wrong. However, the idea of that saying applies - if you have too many top guys who are all demanding too much money, your boat is going to capsize because you're not going to be able to get the rest of the team signed. (Unless you're the fucking Rangers and get everyone on league minimum contracts because you're the fucking Rangers and you run a retirement home in New York, but I DIGRESS.)

The main issue with the Core Four, and the idea of the Core Four, is that they're eating up basically half the cap by themselves. And if you look back on it, you can go "Kyle Dubas was a moron", but you've got to remember: Dubas inked those deals thinking the cap wouldn't go flat due to covid. With the cap due to jump next offseason, you're looking at a LOT of 1-year deals because most free agents think they can get more money when there's more money to throw around. Bertuzzi and Domi are no exceptions.

Oh, also, Brad Treliving signed a 4C (David Kämpf) to a $2.5m contract with 4 years of term. You don't sign fourth liners for that money or term, as a general rule, unless they do something for your team that is literally irreplacable. Kämpf is good but he's nowhere near the great that justifies that.

Bertuzzi: Fair value for him, but you had Bunting who just signed for $1m less with short term to the Canes. Possible upgrade but too early to tell, probably a sidegrade.

Domi: Really should learn how to play wing. Inconsistent. A bit of an overpay for a third line center who can't play D at all.

Reaves: Punchy McFourthLine. That's it.

The Leafs' defense doesn't have anything too glaringly awful, on the other hand - except that newly inked $4.15m contract to a John Klingberg who can barely play defense on a good day. When you already had three at least passable RDs on the roster (don't know how good Liljegren or Timmins are). I get the idea of an RD upgrade, but man, that was not it.

Klingberg: We're really in the "outscore your opponents" phase of the meltdown now, aren't we? He is worse than Erik Karlsson at defense. Erik Karlsson, Fourth Forward, is a better defenseman. Good God what I would give to see Klingberg and Rielly on a D-pair together. Threat to score... at both ends of the ice.

So the Leafs are over the cap, but a few shenaniga- Wait, what is that? An unsigned RFA goalie?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA YEEEEEP. THEY QUALIFIED SAMSONOV AND HAVE $-8.8 MILLION IN CAP SPACE WITH WHICH TO GIVE HIM A CONTRACT. Better pray he doesn't get offersheeted because you won't be able to sign a big deal for him. Good Lord.

And now here's your injured reserve.

Note that Muzzin's $5.625m is already coming off the books and there's noooo way they can take him off IR (see the top). They still need to shed $3.2m just to fit under cap. With Sammy needing a contract and being arbitration eligible? Oh boy.

So what's going to happen here?

Firstly, Muzzin has to stay on Robidas Island. He comes back, you're fucked capwise.

Murray needs to go. You can't buy him out because that would put $2m on the cap next season as penalty - $2m that you need to resign Nylander and Matthews. Either you Robidas Island him (break his kneecaps permanently) or you trade him as a cap dump. You can't get value on him because he's already retained salary and with an M-NTC that limits where he can go. So you need to ship Murray out with a sweetener for our good friend Future Considerations or a seventh-rounder. The sweetener in question? Probably a first-round pick. Maybe a third if the team in question needs a netminder. Toronto is fresh out of second-round picks. Sweet.

Even with Murray out, you have $1.4m in cap space, and with Robertson probably drawing into the lineup because he's cheap and hopefully fixed by now, so only $700k to spare for Sammy's contract. You better believe Ilya Fucking Samsonov is not going to take a league minimum contract... especially when he's valued at around $5m.

You can ship out Jarnkrok and/or Timmins (as per the internet, the most likely to be dealt). Even with both gone, you only have $3.9m in cap space, which means Sammy would either need to take a team friendly or get dealt, leaving Woll and Literally Nobody to take the net for Toronto. And even if Sammy takes a $3.5m deal, you have next to no cap space and no 13F/7D.

Did I mention Samsonov can arbitrate? Because Samsonov can choose to arbitrate for a higher salary. For another Devils comparable, the reason we didn't qualify Bastian or McLeod was because they could choose to arbitrate if we did, with the arbitrator awarding a higher salary than Fitz would be comfortable paying. Arbitrator says $5m, Treliving can't pay it, Sammy walks. Great work, Brad.

The other speculation is that these moves are setting up for a Nylander trade, breaking up the Core Four. Don't know who the hell wants Nylander at almost $7m of cap hit - maybe the Senators if they manage to ditch DeBrincat? The Leafs would probably have to retain significant salary. Also don't know who the hell the Leafs would replace Nylander with. I doubt this happens, honestly, especially because Nylander's 10-team no-trade clause can kick the Leafs further in the ass. But who the fuck knows anymore?

So to recap: The Leafs just shopped for a bunch of guys with no defense at all that's going to make them have to get rid of Murray and has made resigning Samsonov tough. They need to let go of some of their depth (Jarnkrok and Timmins most likely) to make it work at all, and that's assuming Sammy does them a favor and signs for cheap. That's not even including the possibility of an offersheet to Samsonov - which, if you're a GM with goaltending issues and cap to spare (Chicago comes to mind), you should seriously consider dropping a $6m offersheet to Samsonov and watching the chaos erupt. If Kyle Davidson is reading this right now, do this and I promise I will stop bringing up the Kyle Beach scandal every time I hear about the Hawks and let your franchise turn over a new leaf. (Or Leaf, as it were.)

@excuseme-jimin @storybook-strange you guys also expressed interest in this :)

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #stereducation

[stereax]

how does rfa work? what options does timo have if he chooses not to sign with the devils?

hey anon! that's a good question - UFAs, or unrestricted free agents, are pretty simple in that they can go to whatever team they want as long as they're not under contract, but RFAs (restricted free agents) are a little trickier to get. let's talk! (gonna put it under the cut so people who don't care about the contracts part of the game don't have to hercules scroll to get past this.)

so RFAs are basically defined as Not UFAs and Not Entry Level - so not rookies in their first 1-3 years in the NHL, but also younger than 27 or without 7 NHL years under their belt. Timo, being 26, can declare UFA status next year. crucially, this means that if he doesn't like NJ, he can sign a one year deal and then leave the next year (which basically means we would have traded for one year and some of Timo).

now Timo's got this weird contract where it's really backstacked. his base salaries for the 4 years of it were 700k, 700k, 4m, and 10m. with signing bonuses, 4m, 4m, 6m, 10m. this works both against and for us. his qualifying offer is 10m because of the backstack taking the last year of the contract. so here are the options we have:

Fitz negotiates a contract with Timo (8? 8.5?) for however long. the longer the better to keep him under team control, as, if Timo wants a 2-3 year deal, then he becomes a UFA and we can't control if he stays or goes, which means we have to pay him more money later if he decides to stay (because he can say "well Calgary will give me 9.5" or something like that). Fitz will NOT negotiate a one year contract with Timo... because

Timo's agent is probably smarter than that. here's how QOs work: Fitz has to offer the QO which is 100% of Timo's last-year salary (10m) if they can't get a deal done, else Timo is allowed to walk as a UFA. so if Timo doesn't want to stay in NJ long-term and just wants to cash out, he's going to push for Fitz to have to QO him.

but if Timo really doesn't want to stay, another team can offer sheet him. so he doesn't accept the QO, talks to another team (let's say Calgary again), and Calgary says "we'll pay you 11m to come here". Fitz then gets 7 days to decide if Calgary can take him or if he's going to match that. if he matches, Timo stays with NJ for 11m for one year. if not, Timo goes to Calgary. but but but! offer sheets don't come without a price. depending on the AAV, Calgary will have to pay a massive fee of draft picks. if the offer sheet is under 10m AAV Fitz is going to match because of the QO thing. if it's above, there's a breakpoint. see, there are "tiers" of offer sheet AAVs and each has a different draft pick compensation. up to 10.5ishM is two firsts, a second, and a third. above 10.5ishM is FOUR firsts. so if Calgary goes under that number (which any team probably will), Fitz would probably match it. if someone goes nuts and goes above it, Fitz will likely let Timo walk because FOUR firsts.

another possibility: Timo and Fitz go to arbitration. this very basically means that they talk to an arbitrator who listens to both sides and sets a salary. generally when arbitration is filed it doesn't actually reach arbitration, it's usually a tactic to stop the possibility of offer sheets (although they're super uncommon anyways) and push for more time to figure things out and get the contract. but if it actually hits arbitration, then - okay. so either Timo or Fitz can say "fuck this we arbitrate". if Fitz says that, he MUST honor the arbitration agreement and sign Timo to that amount. if Timo says it, Fitz can still decide whether or not he agrees to the amount (if not, Timo goes UFA). the issue is that the team can't ask for more than a 15% pay cut. Timo's current salary is 10M. I'm not sure if it's AAV or the last year's salary, but if it's last year's, it means they will have to pay at LEAST 8.5M if they hit arbitration. so they don't really want to do that, because Fitz pinches pennies and is pitching for an 8Mish deal. (I assume Fitz is telling Timo 8Mish and Timo's looking for 9Mish long-term, unless Timo's not sold on NJ.)

the last possibility is that Fitz trades Timo. which he can do, because Timo is still an RFA. this is why the whole "we can still get a first-round draft pick" thing has people worried, because Fitz can flip Timo for a first-rounder in this draft (and probably more too). most, if not all, of the teams in the top 15ish of the draft (I've heard the draft class thins considerably after 15 or so and I doubt Fitz trades Timo for the 30th pick in the draft) aren't going to want Timo over their draft pick as they're in rebuild mode and Timo won't fit their window. the one possibility I could MAYBE see would be Buffalo - Buffalo is entering a contention window, might not need the 12th draft pick if they decide to push their chips in and push for a wildcard spot next year (reminder that they were only like 2 points off from being in the playoffs). Buffalo's biggest issue isn't forwards though, it's goalies. so like, unless they put Timo in pads and make Akira teach him to save... idk. I doubt it. but yeah, since we still have Timo's rights, if he says "I'm definitely not coming back here, you broke my nose in the playoffs and I'm traumatized" or whatever have you, Fitz will have to trade him or force him into arbitration (and the latter probably won't make him thrilled to be here). I doubt we trade Timo, though.

what I expect to happen is that Timo signs for an ~8.5M AAV deal. I really expect a longer-term deal from this because if Timo wants to get out, again, he can sign his QO for one year, cash in for a hefty 10M, and get out when he UFAs. recall his agent is Claude Lemieux, though, and Lemieux won 2 of his 3 Stanley Cups with us (and the third because we traded him to Colorado). I'm not saying that Lemieux is gonna go team friendly because we got him Stanley Cup wins, but I am saying that Lemieux is probably on very good terms with the Devils organization, doesn't need a massive payday from this deal, and is likely enough to be nicer to us than, say, Joakim Persson (Bratt's agent) who doesn't have repeated interactions with the Devils and is really pushing for a good deal so he can attract more clients.

but that's just a theory, a stereax theory :)

(also, any and all references to Calgary are entirely fictional, I doubt Calgary is interested in him lol)

let me know if this helps, anon!!! and if I have something wrong, feel free to correct me :)

#stereanswers #stereducation #stereanalysis

[stereax]

Okay so I said maybe I'd do this but now I am DEFINITELY doing this for real. I'm writing and hopefully posting this after the first round of the draft so I don't get spooked by GMs making trades on the draft floor. But let's go and see how wrong we are in a year!

Stereax's 2023-24 NHL Predictions!

Quick disclaimer: I'm not going to be going into a 1-32 power ranking; only five categories: Cup Contender, Playoff Placer, Wildcard Watchlist, Middest Misser, and Terrible Tanker. This will roughly give us five strata - CC for the top teams in the league, PP for those that should comfortably make the playoffs and do okay in them, WW for those that should end up in the wildcard race, MM for those that don't make the playoffs yet aren't bad enough to get into the draft lottery, and TT for the worst teams in the league who are in the race for last. Alliteration, baby. In addition, I'm going to have 1 CC, 2 PPs, 2 WWs, 2 MMs, and 1 TT per conference, just to spice it up.

That being said, let's get into it!

First up, let's start with my favorite division: the Metro!!!

Hurricanes: Signing Kochetkov was one of the best things Brind'Amour did. Look at the Canes' CapFriendly situation and tell me what you think. Spoiler alert: a lot of their depth is headed for UFA (Gostisbehere confirmed, I think, and a lot more that look likely). Next year is really their last year to go for it before the big guns' contracts come up and they're going to cap crunch. It also depends on the goalie situation, but for now, I'm giving them a solid ranking, but not the best. Playoff Placer.

Devils: Okay, I am a Devils fan ride-or-die, but, at the time of writing this, it's hard to say we're NOT going to roll the Metro. Fitz's recent trades (Toffoli for Shango and a 3rd, dumping Mac, sign-and-trading Severson) have injected even more oomph into the lineup while giving up little of long-term value. Not going to talk Devils puck for an hour, although I very very much could (and would if anyone hit my inbox please talk to me I get lonely lol), but we genuinely have one of the best forward cores in the league, some great defense coming up, and actual goaltending. And cap space! Cup Contender.

Rangers: As long as Shesterkin exists, the Rangers should be decent enough to be at LEAST wildcards. As long as Drury exists, the Rangers will never be good enough to be actual contenders. I'm sorry, but this was supposed to be their year and they blew it even harder than the other times they blew it. They are constantly in win-now mode and failing to develop their prospects. Their forward core is slowly aging as well. Also, the cap is screwing them over. Playoff Placer.

Islanders: As long as Sorokin exists, the Islanders should be decent enough to be at LEAST wildcards. As long as Lou exists, the Islanders will never be good enough to be actual contenders. The difference between the Rags and Isles is that the Rags, for as much as I hate them, have a functional top 6. The Isles? Hah. Retirement home. Wildcard Watchlist.

Penguins: What can I really say about them? Getting really old and deciding to hold the three-headed monster's hands as they ride off into the sunset. It's noble but it's not going to get them a cup. I think Dubas is going to make some positive changes to the organization and make them more competitive, but will he make them a contender? Not at all - there's not enough left in the tank for that. Wildcard Watchlist.

Capitals: Similar to the Penguins, the Capitals seem to have decided that their goal now is to get Ovi the goals record and hold his hand as he moves closer to retirement. However, the Caps seem to have decided they're not going to contend much going forward and can start the rebuilding process at least a little earlier. They're not going into tank mode, but they're not going to make the playoffs. Middest Misser.

Flyers: I have a tag that's literally "Danny Briere's Tank-a-Thon" on my blog. It is used frequently. Briere took over the organization and basically said "this team is not going to get us where we want to go so we need to burn it to the ground". The Michkov draft pick only solidifies that their plan is not to contend in the next few years. Terrible Tanker.

Blue Jackets: Fantilli gets another year in UMich but the Jackets are building a strong team to be ready for him next year. They're going to be better this season - they've bolstered their blue line with the Provorov and Severson trades. Now if they can get a goaltender that posts a save percentage beginning with a .9 and not a .8... Until then, they're not going to contend. But they won't be last in the division - the Flyers exist. Middest Misser.

Alright, time to visit the other Eastern division: the Atlantic!

Bruins: They're not gonna repeat the success from last year. Cap is chewing at their team (already they traded Hall and Foligno for table scraps) plus Bergeron and Krejci are major question marks. Relying on Zacha as the 1C is a yikes. That being said, a lot of this team still works - Pasta, Marchand, the goalies, the defense. That should get them into the playoffs. But there will be a bunch of question marks too - Lucic, for example. Why? Playoff Placer.

Maple Leafs: Treliving has some really tough decisions to make. Keep the Core Four? Trade someone? Let someone walk? Wait - I'm getting reports that he... signed David Kampf to a 2.5m AAV deal? What the fuck was that? No, seriously, what the fuck was that? This is why Leafs fans can't have nice things! You have some great pieces and an absolute inability to build around them. Oh, and look at that, you just drafted Easton Cowan with your first-round pick when that kid was slated to go in the third or fourth round of the draft. Better options were on the table, Treliving. Playoff Placer.

Lightning: I really think this is the slow decline of the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Jeannot whiff and the loss to the Leafs, a literal cursed team, only solidified it - the Cup tax was too great. With the rise of young Atlantic teams in the Sabres and Senators, I can't give the Lightning a higher grade - even if I know they're going to find themselves in the third division spot at the end of the day. Middest Misser.

Panthers: It's very hard to argue with success. The Cats have what it takes and they know their weak spots (defense, mainly). They're not going to win the Atlantic, but they'll do as their Lightning friends have done and win just enough to get in as the 2nd or 3rd seed, then wreak havoc. Bob showed us he's worth his contract, and, with Knight, it's only looking up from here. Cup Contender.

Sabres: Young, rising stars like Tage Thompson and Devon Levi pushed the Sabres oh-so-close to a playoff spot last season. With the slow decline of the Bruins and Lightning, as well as the massive question mark that is the Leafs, I think the Sabres can snap their playoff drought next season and finally exit their rebuild. They could also get oh-so-close again though... Wildcard Watchlist.

Senators: Young, rising stars like Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle pushed the Senators oh-so-close to a playoff spot last season. With the slow decline of the Bruins and Lightning, as well as the massive question mark that is the Leafs, I think the Sens can definitely make the playoffs. They could also get oh-so-close again though... Okay, but disregarding the Sabres/Senators parallels: the Sens need an actual goaltender. No goalie, no playoffs. Goalie, playoffs. Wildcard Watchlist.

Red Wings: The Yzerplan was rumored to be long and arduous. Good news for Red Wings haters is there's no sign of that changing any time soon. While I am now morally obligated to love this team because of my newest boy that I've just adopted Nate Danielson going there, please don't tell me they have any playoff aspirations any time soon. They're already breaking Ville Husso. Terrible Tanker.

Canadiens: Their entire team shouldn't break, right? Like, that was a one-time thing? Cool. There are still a lot of question marks on the Habs' roster - they'll probably truly break out again in 24-25 or 25-26 to coincide with the decline of the Bruins and Lightning. Develop the rookies more this year. They could make the playoffs in 23-24, but I think it's a long shot. They will give the Sabres and Senators a run for their money, though. Middest Misser.

With that, the East is complete. Time to head out West... Central time!

Avalanche: Avalanche fans are all crying because Landy's out another season and half the longer-term players are being traded or let go. Despite this, the Avalanche have proven to us (last season) that they can still win the Central even if their whole team is broken. I can't give them a worse score than this, and they don't deserve it, either. Even so, I'm somewhat worried at the long-term future of the Avalanche. Playoff Placer.

Stars: It is no secret that I consider the Central the worst division in the NHL. Most of these teams are genuinely just meh. The Stars probably have the best shot out of who we've got, despite some of the depth such as Domi and Glendening leaving in free agency and players such as Pavelski possibly retiring - they've had deep runs in the past few years, and young talents such as Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger will only get better. I'm going to take this moment to laugh at the Stars deciding to bridge Robertson, though. That's going to bite them in the ass in a few years. For now, though? Cup Contender.

Wild: Look, it's a given by now that the Wild will make the playoffs and then lose in consecutively more humiliating fashion in the first round every single year. That being said, Gustavsson was stellar last year. Can he keep it up? Kaprizov is going to become a franchise player for the Wild, and now he actually has forwards that can score, too. It's looking up - what? Almost $15m tied up in dead cap from buyouts of Parise and Suter? Point and laugh, boys. Point and laugh. Good luck with offersheets, Minnesota. Playoff Placer.

Jets: The entire organization is blowing up. All the top players want out. The Jets are trying their best - the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade was great for the team, for example. I suspect, however, that they're slowly sliding into the rebuild era. No Hellebuyck? No shot. And Helle wants out to a team that can get him a Cup... Wildcard Watchlist.

Predators: Juuse Saros almost dragged the Milwaukee Admirals to the playoffs. That in and of itself gives this organization a lot of hope. If the Predators can put even a mediocre NHL-level team in front of Saros, who knows what happens? They're reportedly selling Askarov - the goalie they drafted in the first round a few years ago (which is super rare for goalies). Saros is the foreseeable future for this team. Wildcard Watchlist.

Blues: I categorically choose not to pay attention to the Blues because Jordan Bitchington pisses me off. That being said, what do the Blues even have? The Tkachuks' patronage? Some decent-at-best players in Kyrou and Buchnevich? Every good player on the Blues ends up not there (and generally on the Leafs). No shot they're good next year. Middest Misser.

Coyotes: They don't even have an arena. They drafted off the board for both their picks. (It was to pick up teammates in Simashev and But, though! I can vibe with it!) This doesn't change the fact that they're still the official bank of the NHL. Star-studded LTIR roster. And UrinatingTree just made ANOTHER lolcow video about the Coyotes. Terrible Tanker.

Blackhawks: Can Taylor Hall have another Hart Trophy season and drag a first overall center and a relatively awful team to the playoffs? Probably not. You got Bedard, wooo. Now you have to build a team of people who want to play in Chicago. Good luck! Middest Misser.

And finally, last but certainly not least... Pacific!

Golden Knights: The Knights make all the right moves (mostly), even despite the fans' best wishes. Dumping an original Misfit to Pittsburgh to make cap space for Barbashev? Trading Fleury? No matter how beloved you are, you are not safe. That being said, the Knights make the right moves. The goaltending should stabilize in the next season and the depth is insane - the Knights' fourth line is the best in the league bar none. This one's easy. Cup Contender.

Oilers: If the Oilers could build a god damn team around McDavid and Draisaitl, we wouldn't be here. Unfortunately, they can't, and we are. Darnell Nurse's 9m AAV haunts me and I'm not even really an Oilers fan. Christ. Good news is Skinner is playing great; bad news is the 5m AAV Campbell is not. See a pattern of overpaying bad defense and goalies? Yeah. Oh, and the Oilers might have to give up at least one of their good top 6 players to be able to pay their bottom 6. Yikes. Even so, the Edmonton McDraisaitls will still bury teams 5 goals a game. Playoff Placer.

Kings: Why did you pay that much for Pierre-Luc Dubois? In trade and in contract. That's an 8.5m AAV pylon for some of your best prospect forwards. You sold Quick for a few casino chips and he won his third Cup without you. Damn, the Kings are probably one of the most forgettable teams in the NHL and this proves it. Wildcard Watchlist.

Kraken: The Kraken are one of the teams that have pleasantly surprised me this season. They're really building something special in Seattle with a well-rounded roster, and Matty Beniers and Shane Wright can become bona fide stars for the Kraken. Beating the Avalanche in a playoff round only makes me more sympathetic. They should be solid for a few years yet. Playoff Placer.

Flames: Two questions: 1) What is Conroy smoking? 2) Can I have some? Look at the Toffoli trade - you just gave up your best point scorer last season for a 3rd round pick and a 3rd liner because you wouldn't prioritize his contract. The entire damn team is RUNNING from you. Yeah, you still have pieces like Kadri and Huberdeau, but even they are underperforming. Oilers fans are laughing at you. Even so, I'll be nice to you, because nobody else will be. Wildcard Watchlist.

Canucks: Hahahaha no. I should switch the rating for the Canucks and the Flames, realistically, but the sheer ineptitude of the Canucks' management is appalling. How the hell do you enter a season above the cap? The Canucks will always be mid until they realize they need to actually rebuild properly - but they won't, not if it means alienating Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson. So they're always going to be mid. Oops. Hey, Demko's back though! Middest Misser.

Sharks: It's Shark Tank season for San Jose. Actively selling Erik Karlsson for whatever he can fetch? Actually trading a sixth for Mackenzie Brokenwood and (probably) tandeming him with James Reimer? Wanting Andreas Johnsson in a trade for Timo Meier, one of your last good pieces??? Terrible Tanker.

Ducks: Carlsson? Unexpected but not a bad pick. Defensive prospects are developing well and Drysdale's shoulder is reattached. The Ducks could break out in 23-24 - they won't, but they could! I see them taking a similar path to the Canadiens - moving into the top 4 teams once the Flames and Kings fall out of viability. Like the Canadiens, they'll need some more time, though. Middest Misser.

What do y'all think of this? Any teams I'm overvaluing or undervaluing? My ask box is open :)

#stereanalysis #stereducation

[stereax]

If you still want questions, who do you think made the best moves so far this off-season? And what do you think fitzy was on when talking about Akira yesterday?

I always always ALWAYS love questions :)

Under the read more!

Best moves in the offseason:

Generally, the idea this offseason is don't bet the farm. The cap is going to jump next year. Wait it out. Here are my picks for top GMs:

- Fitz (Devils). Toffoli for Shango and-a-third (the third he got from Sevo's sign and trade)? Meier 8x8.8? Bratter 8x7.875? Even the small acquisitions like Colin Miller (for a fucking FIFTH!) are great. Pinching pennies and trading only expendable pieces. Yeah, I'm a homer, so what?

- Zito (Panthers). There was a need (defense), he addressed it. Mikkola, Rodrigues, even Lorentz and Stolarz. Didn't blow the bank and got what needed to be done done.

- Davidson (Blackhawks). Yes, fuck the Hawks for being racist and for the Beach scandal, but you gotta give it to Davidson, who maneuvered to acquire a bunch of vets from cap-strapped teams for next to nothing and sign them to short-term deals for Bedard to learn from. Foligno, Hall, Perry, all for a single seventh??? Oh, and they drafted Bedard. That helps too.

---

As for what Fitzy's on... I assume speed.

Okay, so the goalie sitch: Vitek is confirmed in the NHL. We need one more NHL goalie, plus one goalie we can call up in case of injury (ideally two).

Akira is really young for an NHL goalie - he's just turned 22 recently, and, among NHL goalies, only one has had more than 10 starts in 22-23 and is under 22. That's Spencer Knight, who's 21. You do have some young goalies who are rising prospects, such as Levi (also 21), Dostal (22), Sogaard (22), UPL (23), Kochetkov (23).

What sets Akira apart is his high save% compared to them. In 22-23, Knight had a .901, Levi had a .901, Dostal had a .901, Sogaard had a .889, UPL had a .891, even Kochetkov, rising goalie phenom, "only" had a .909. Akira had a .922. StatMuse shows this percentage as fourth in the ENTIRE NHL (for 15+ games played), only behind Vezina winner Ullmark, Gustavsson, and Sorokin. Also reassuring - he posted a .921 in the playoffs (an astounding .950 in the first round... and a less-than-stellar .874 in the second).

That being said, Akira has a low sample size to pull from. In 21-22, our Year of the Seven Goalies, he lost every game he played and posted a .833. And goalies, as we are all aware, are voodoo. It's entirely possible that he regresses back to a .850 player. Do I think it's going to happen? Haha no. But still.

Kochetkov is set for another year of third-stringing behind Andersen and Raanta. Fitz might want something similar for Akira, trying to bring Hellebuyck in without giving up Vanecek and attempting to roll Helle/VV this year - I find this relatively implausible because of our cap situation plus the idea that Helle would be mentoring Schmid if anything. The other option is he's looking for a free agent goalie (Stalock? Jones?) for a one-year contract to act as a stopgap. Remember, Nico Daws is injured until Christmas and likely won't be performing well until February. Kallgren is fourth-string, realistically. The issue with a free agent second goalie is that it would likely force Vitek to make many more starts - and his quality begins to decline after game 40 or so. This is why Devils fans are mostly all advocating for Akira and VV to be the starting tandem. We just need a good third-stringer for injuries. I heard Nashville is accepting calls on Askarov...

One last note - Akira also has a "fuck this shit carry time" factor, where he generally plays ten times better when someone else playing in net before him fucks it up (see: Blackwood game 82, Vitek against the Rangers). It's a real thing. Who knows if Fitz isn't simply trying to light a fire under Akira to train even harder this offseason.

#stereanswers #stereanalysis #stereducation

[stereax]

hi, i'm stereax! an intro

Check out the Discord!

I'm Stereax, you can call me whatever you want though really. Any pronouns. New Jersey native, half Polish half American, studying International Relations in Geneva, Switzerland, living in Fr*nce because the rent is cheaper... I get around, I guess LOL.

I'm primarily a Devils fan (obviously, from NJ so). If you don't know the Devils yet, here's my 23-24 primer! (And here's their 2023 playoff run primer!) Oh, also here's the Kingdom series of poetry I wrote about the Devils and set to pictures :)

I follow quite a few other teams with varying degrees of care - not going to list who I like and who I don't, but if you name an NHL team chances are I can talk about them. Yes, even the Rangers.

I'm also fairly decent at talking puck on the more technical side of things (cap stuff, trades, team compositions, discourse, etcetera etcetera) - a lot of my asks revolve around this and I enjoy taking the time out to parse these things out for those who may be confused about them!

My inbox is ALWAYS OPEN. Send me whatever you want. Questions about hockey, the Devils or any other team, my life, comments, posts, fics, WHATEVER. I'm not kidding, please talk to me, I love answering asks, getting recommendations, or whatever else have you. Hell, drop into my DMs if you want! (Also, if you need a beta reader, I have a red pen that's waiting to be uncapped :D although I tend to go ham with grammar stuff...)

I have a super secret (not really secret at ALL) side blog that is way more famous than I am on hockeyblr. I'm pretty sure all of my closest mutuals have figured it out but I'll pretend they haven't LOL. There's also @devils-pirate-crew which is a half-askblog half-fanfic thing that I'm updating every other day to motivate myself to write on a regular basis.

I have a weird tagging system where I double-tag most Devils players: once is for the actual name of the player, the other is a "funny" tag that I just like to use. I'll probably compile a list of those and put it here at some point.

Some important self tags you should know, though:

My most used tag is #beat reporter stereax which is frantic reposting of Twitter things (and sometimes other things) that are hockey news. If you're not interested in that, block that tag now, because I tend to post a LOT of news under it. Also see #off the beat for NHL news that isn't really NHL news but is too funny not to share.

#stereanswers is my general answer tag, all answers and stuff go in there. #stereanalysis and #stereducation are generally for longer-form talks about hockey on the technical side, with the former being for most/all technical hockey considerations (whether shorter or longer) while the latter is generally for longer but hopefully quite informative posts. #sterechats :) is non-directly-hockey related posting (although I tend to try to keep that to a minimum).

There are also #sterepoetry for hockey-related poems I write and #stereax plays a tag game which I think is self-explanatory.

But yeah, I think that's about it! If you have any questions... there's a big red button that reads "wanna talk hockey?" up there to put them in :D

#sterechats :)